Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good. I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2. I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.) I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.
Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:
1) Florida or Georgetown? There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure: Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown. Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds. I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense. Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker. I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.
2) What do do with Wisconsin. I hate this. I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong. Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all. I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps. So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out. I'm still rooting against them though. If you don't it means you hate America.
3) Who comes out of the West? In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders. Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently. Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it. That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle. If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.). Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes. The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.
4) Can Louisville Survive? I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch. I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here. The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there. Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous. Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work. Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3. So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.
5) Who upsets Kansas? I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced? I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember. I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas? And after that their worst loss was to Butler? The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams. They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas? It could happen, kids, it could happen.
6) How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me. I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse. As it turns out, I think they are. They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship. Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.
That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.
Showing posts with label VCU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VCU. Show all posts
Monday, March 18, 2013
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
And we're Spent
I was going to write about everything that happened today, but I write the previews and stuff first and then go back and write the introduction and I'm really quite tired and I don't think that's something that I'm going to do.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Week in Review - 1/28/2013
There isn't much here about the Gophers so if that's what you're looking for go look somewhere else (although I do bitch about Rodney Williams later). Losing to a mediocre Badger team at Kohl Center doesn't really tell me much, other than reconfirming once again that this Gopher team isn't "elite", but this loss does nothing for me in terms of if this team is "pretty good" or "frustratingly mediocre as usual." And nothing good can possibly happen next week (home games vs. Nebraska and Iowa) only disastrously bad things can happen outside of expected results, so we won't really know anything until the go to East Lansing and then have Illinois at home the following week. It's a frustrating time to be a fan. But what would life as a Gopher fan be without the frustration? We're all such idiots.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Miami Hurricanes. Hey bromigos, there have been some great wins by teams this year but it's going to be tough for anybody to top Miami beating #1 Duke by 27 (and yes I know Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly because everyone keeps pointing out how Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly but can everyone just calm down about that for a minute because we're talking about Ryan freaking Kelly here). I mean they just killed them. At the ten minute mark of the first half Duke was up 14-13, which means Miami beat them 77-59 over the final 30 minutes. This wasn't a fluke (don't forget Miami beat Michigan State earlier this year too) and Miami is now 6-0 in the conference and looking like a good bet to win the ACC for what I assume is the first time ever. Best part of that game was Seth Curry shooting 0-10 from the floor, because I still can't shake my irrational hatred of Stephen Curry so naturally that carries over to Seth because you know, brothers and stuff.
2. Kobe Bryant. I think I mentioned this last week but I recently traded for Kobe in my fantasy league which of course means I no longer hate him and kind of like him now, so I fee like it's worth noting that in his last two games he's had 14 assists. Not total, although frankly that would be kind of impressive for this black hole, but in each of the last two he's had 14 in each. I mean, say what you want but 14 assists in a game is a freaking lot, and he's now done it two games in a row. You know many players have ever had at least 14 assists in back-to-back games? I don't know either, probably kind of a lot, actually, but for a me first glory boy hero ball gunslinging chucker like Kobe to do it must have been very difficult for him mentally. And, the Lakers, are 2-0 in those games, which just goes to show you that when you have two maybe three other Hall of Famers on your team it does wonders for your squad's chances if you actually let them touch the ball and shoot and stuff. Like I've always said.
3. Baylor Bears. There's a reason why Baylor was highly ranked by many including myself this year, and that's because even with Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller off to the NBA the machine Scott Drew has put in place still meant they were going to be immensely talented. Sometimes they can put a game together like Monday against Oklahoma State, and even if the final margin was only 10 the game was never really in doubt. Their back court (Pierre Jackson, Brady Heslip, A.J. Walton) is both experienced and talented, while the front court (Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson) is probably the most athletic in the country with Jefferson the total freak and Austin the unstoppable freshman who can dominate inside or hit the three and already has a turnaround fadeway jumper which truly a thing to behold from a 7-1 dude with a wingspan beyond that (kind of like KG but slightly more awkward). Then on the bench you have Gary Franklin, Deuce Bello, and Rico Gathers who would all start for most teams. That's why they handled Oklahoma State, won at Rupp against Kentucky, and stomped BYU this year. Of course they're also a dumb team, so they've lost at Northwestern and dropped one at home to Charleston. I'm telling you right now, bros - Baylor is ripe for a first round upset this year in the tournament.
4. UCLA Bruins. There is a reason I ranked UCLA the 6th best team in the NCAA going into this season and they were ranked 13th in the preseason polls - there is a lot of freaking talent here. Early season struggles (one point home OT win over UC-Irvine, home loss to Cal Poly) dropped them out of the rankings and out of everyone's hearts and minds, but as things have come together they reeled off 10 straight wins before dropping a game last week to a good Oregon team, and now went into Tucson and knocked off 6th rated Arizona. The early season issues shouldn't have been a surprise since the team is mostly made up of freshmen (Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson) and transfers (the Wear twins, Larry Drew), but now everything is looking good (they smoked Arizona) and Muhammed is starting to look like he could do the Carmelo Anthony thing and carry this team in March. Of course, being a Ben Howland coached team they then went out an invalidated everything I just wrote by losing at Arizona State on Saturday, but I stand by this team anyway. Kinda sorta.
WHO SUCKED
1. Rodney Williams. No, I'm not the idiot who is going to call Williams out for missing the tying free throw because the odds of him hitting two free throws in any situation are pretty long any way and even as a senior he's a kid who isn't a good shooter and who has been in very few high leverage situations like it - it was basically a given he wasn't going to make them both, particularly on the road. No, I'm going to call out Williams because who in the baby jesus of the earth convinced him he's a jump shooter? He's not a jump shooter. He's a freak athlete who needs to get his ass in the paint because his jump shot resembles that of a high school wrestler. I don't even want him taking open jumpers, let alone the nearly constant shit he's been jacking up the last two games which consists of him stopping the ball, making a jab step or two that doesn't really move the defender, and then rising up and clanging a jumper off some slight part of the rim like he plays for the god damn Illini. Just because you have the ability to get your shot off whenever you want doesn't mean you should. To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, "You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn't stop to think if you should." Actually we should probably have Rodney sit down and watch Jurassic Park - the whole thing is a metaphor for his jump shot. Or something like that.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. Like when I wrote about the Lakers last week I'm not exactly breaking news here that Kentucky is struggling, but after watching them lose at Alabama it really reminded me that John Calipari is really not a good game coach, despite winning the title last year. The talent Kentucky has this year is nearly as good as anything else Calipari has had in his career, but when your offensive game plan generally consists of just rolling the ball out every game, that talent also has to be smart - you need coach on the floor types to keep things moving in the right direction. His best teams at Memphis had guys like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, last year's champions had Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and even back in the UMass days he had an incredible guard tandem in Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla (I can't believe I didn't have to look those names up). Without a "smart" player to direct the team, a coach who is an A+ recruiter and a D+ game coach, and a small talent dip from last year this Kentucky team is going nowhere this year. Of course, next year they're probably going undefeated, so enjoy this now.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have a solid core and should be a good team again this year, but they've taken the "get rid of the guys the manager doesn't like" philosophy the Twins like so much to a whole different extreme. Earlier this offseason they unloaded super prospect Trevor Bauer because he wouldn't adapt the workout schedule he's done his entire life to match what the D-Backs wanted and received a prospect in return whose upside is "great glove, no hit" and now they've shipped off Justin Upton because he and manager Kirk Gibson apparently don't get along. Before trading Upton, however, they managed to kill all their leverage by making it clear they wanted him gone. Actually first they got a pretty good haul from Seattle, but Upton has a limited no-trade clause and killed that so, desperate to have him gone, they sent him off to Atlanta for one year of a so-so third baseman (Martin Prado) who wants in the neighborhood of $12 million a year starting next season, a likely fifth starter someday (Randall Delgado), and three other minor leaguers of little consequence. All that for a 25-year old who in four full seasons has had two monster years and two lesser years, which were both above average, by the way. Just a silly way to do business. We're actually lucky to have Gardy. Ha ha just kidding. Throw in the D-Backs trade of Chris Young to Oakland for another no hit/good field shortstop in Cliff Pennington and this offseason has just been bizarre for Arizona.
4. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. What incredible timing for the Rams to implode considering I just pimped them last week as a Final Four sleeper. All they've done this week is have a seven point lead with 42 seconds left vs. Richmond and blow the game and then lose at home to LaSalle. Now, neither Richmond or especially LaSalle are bad losses, but this isn't the way to prove me right and stuff. I still think they're a sleeper Final Four team what with their style of play since most teams don't ever go up against something like that, but both blowing a big lead against a mediocre opponent and losing a home game to another mediocre opponent kind of hurt the confidence level. Actually, maybe this helps since they'll end up with a worse seed and then I will be the only one to pick them to the Final Four and all that sweet sweet NCAA Tournament Pool money will be mine all mine! I'm a genius.
Lastly, the team in college basketball who hands down had the best week was Villanova. They beat both Louisville and Syracuse, giving wins over two top-5 teams in the same week which is pretty much like holy shit. The reasons I didn't list them in the "WHO WAS AWESOME" section are two-fold: 1) I hate them and 2) who gives a crap? Those are two great wins and yeah their RPI is creeping into the mid-50s so it's possible they could play themselves into an at-large, but they already have seven losses and even if most of them are excusable losing to Providence and especially Columbia is not. Also I don't even know if I can name a single player for Nova (is Jayvaughn Pinkston still there?) and I don't really feel like learning another team. So sorry.
Plus I heard Scottie Reynolds has an armpit fetish and cries when he watches Lion King.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Miami Hurricanes. Hey bromigos, there have been some great wins by teams this year but it's going to be tough for anybody to top Miami beating #1 Duke by 27 (and yes I know Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly because everyone keeps pointing out how Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly but can everyone just calm down about that for a minute because we're talking about Ryan freaking Kelly here). I mean they just killed them. At the ten minute mark of the first half Duke was up 14-13, which means Miami beat them 77-59 over the final 30 minutes. This wasn't a fluke (don't forget Miami beat Michigan State earlier this year too) and Miami is now 6-0 in the conference and looking like a good bet to win the ACC for what I assume is the first time ever. Best part of that game was Seth Curry shooting 0-10 from the floor, because I still can't shake my irrational hatred of Stephen Curry so naturally that carries over to Seth because you know, brothers and stuff.
2. Kobe Bryant. I think I mentioned this last week but I recently traded for Kobe in my fantasy league which of course means I no longer hate him and kind of like him now, so I fee like it's worth noting that in his last two games he's had 14 assists. Not total, although frankly that would be kind of impressive for this black hole, but in each of the last two he's had 14 in each. I mean, say what you want but 14 assists in a game is a freaking lot, and he's now done it two games in a row. You know many players have ever had at least 14 assists in back-to-back games? I don't know either, probably kind of a lot, actually, but for a me first glory boy hero ball gunslinging chucker like Kobe to do it must have been very difficult for him mentally. And, the Lakers, are 2-0 in those games, which just goes to show you that when you have two maybe three other Hall of Famers on your team it does wonders for your squad's chances if you actually let them touch the ball and shoot and stuff. Like I've always said.
3. Baylor Bears. There's a reason why Baylor was highly ranked by many including myself this year, and that's because even with Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller off to the NBA the machine Scott Drew has put in place still meant they were going to be immensely talented. Sometimes they can put a game together like Monday against Oklahoma State, and even if the final margin was only 10 the game was never really in doubt. Their back court (Pierre Jackson, Brady Heslip, A.J. Walton) is both experienced and talented, while the front court (Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson) is probably the most athletic in the country with Jefferson the total freak and Austin the unstoppable freshman who can dominate inside or hit the three and already has a turnaround fadeway jumper which truly a thing to behold from a 7-1 dude with a wingspan beyond that (kind of like KG but slightly more awkward). Then on the bench you have Gary Franklin, Deuce Bello, and Rico Gathers who would all start for most teams. That's why they handled Oklahoma State, won at Rupp against Kentucky, and stomped BYU this year. Of course they're also a dumb team, so they've lost at Northwestern and dropped one at home to Charleston. I'm telling you right now, bros - Baylor is ripe for a first round upset this year in the tournament.
4. UCLA Bruins. There is a reason I ranked UCLA the 6th best team in the NCAA going into this season and they were ranked 13th in the preseason polls - there is a lot of freaking talent here. Early season struggles (one point home OT win over UC-Irvine, home loss to Cal Poly) dropped them out of the rankings and out of everyone's hearts and minds, but as things have come together they reeled off 10 straight wins before dropping a game last week to a good Oregon team, and now went into Tucson and knocked off 6th rated Arizona. The early season issues shouldn't have been a surprise since the team is mostly made up of freshmen (Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson) and transfers (the Wear twins, Larry Drew), but now everything is looking good (they smoked Arizona) and Muhammed is starting to look like he could do the Carmelo Anthony thing and carry this team in March. Of course, being a Ben Howland coached team they then went out an invalidated everything I just wrote by losing at Arizona State on Saturday, but I stand by this team anyway. Kinda sorta.
WHO SUCKED
1. Rodney Williams. No, I'm not the idiot who is going to call Williams out for missing the tying free throw because the odds of him hitting two free throws in any situation are pretty long any way and even as a senior he's a kid who isn't a good shooter and who has been in very few high leverage situations like it - it was basically a given he wasn't going to make them both, particularly on the road. No, I'm going to call out Williams because who in the baby jesus of the earth convinced him he's a jump shooter? He's not a jump shooter. He's a freak athlete who needs to get his ass in the paint because his jump shot resembles that of a high school wrestler. I don't even want him taking open jumpers, let alone the nearly constant shit he's been jacking up the last two games which consists of him stopping the ball, making a jab step or two that doesn't really move the defender, and then rising up and clanging a jumper off some slight part of the rim like he plays for the god damn Illini. Just because you have the ability to get your shot off whenever you want doesn't mean you should. To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, "You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn't stop to think if you should." Actually we should probably have Rodney sit down and watch Jurassic Park - the whole thing is a metaphor for his jump shot. Or something like that.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. Like when I wrote about the Lakers last week I'm not exactly breaking news here that Kentucky is struggling, but after watching them lose at Alabama it really reminded me that John Calipari is really not a good game coach, despite winning the title last year. The talent Kentucky has this year is nearly as good as anything else Calipari has had in his career, but when your offensive game plan generally consists of just rolling the ball out every game, that talent also has to be smart - you need coach on the floor types to keep things moving in the right direction. His best teams at Memphis had guys like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, last year's champions had Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and even back in the UMass days he had an incredible guard tandem in Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla (I can't believe I didn't have to look those names up). Without a "smart" player to direct the team, a coach who is an A+ recruiter and a D+ game coach, and a small talent dip from last year this Kentucky team is going nowhere this year. Of course, next year they're probably going undefeated, so enjoy this now.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have a solid core and should be a good team again this year, but they've taken the "get rid of the guys the manager doesn't like" philosophy the Twins like so much to a whole different extreme. Earlier this offseason they unloaded super prospect Trevor Bauer because he wouldn't adapt the workout schedule he's done his entire life to match what the D-Backs wanted and received a prospect in return whose upside is "great glove, no hit" and now they've shipped off Justin Upton because he and manager Kirk Gibson apparently don't get along. Before trading Upton, however, they managed to kill all their leverage by making it clear they wanted him gone. Actually first they got a pretty good haul from Seattle, but Upton has a limited no-trade clause and killed that so, desperate to have him gone, they sent him off to Atlanta for one year of a so-so third baseman (Martin Prado) who wants in the neighborhood of $12 million a year starting next season, a likely fifth starter someday (Randall Delgado), and three other minor leaguers of little consequence. All that for a 25-year old who in four full seasons has had two monster years and two lesser years, which were both above average, by the way. Just a silly way to do business. We're actually lucky to have Gardy. Ha ha just kidding. Throw in the D-Backs trade of Chris Young to Oakland for another no hit/good field shortstop in Cliff Pennington and this offseason has just been bizarre for Arizona.
4. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. What incredible timing for the Rams to implode considering I just pimped them last week as a Final Four sleeper. All they've done this week is have a seven point lead with 42 seconds left vs. Richmond and blow the game and then lose at home to LaSalle. Now, neither Richmond or especially LaSalle are bad losses, but this isn't the way to prove me right and stuff. I still think they're a sleeper Final Four team what with their style of play since most teams don't ever go up against something like that, but both blowing a big lead against a mediocre opponent and losing a home game to another mediocre opponent kind of hurt the confidence level. Actually, maybe this helps since they'll end up with a worse seed and then I will be the only one to pick them to the Final Four and all that sweet sweet NCAA Tournament Pool money will be mine all mine! I'm a genius.
Lastly, the team in college basketball who hands down had the best week was Villanova. They beat both Louisville and Syracuse, giving wins over two top-5 teams in the same week which is pretty much like holy shit. The reasons I didn't list them in the "WHO WAS AWESOME" section are two-fold: 1) I hate them and 2) who gives a crap? Those are two great wins and yeah their RPI is creeping into the mid-50s so it's possible they could play themselves into an at-large, but they already have seven losses and even if most of them are excusable losing to Providence and especially Columbia is not. Also I don't even know if I can name a single player for Nova (is Jayvaughn Pinkston still there?) and I don't really feel like learning another team. So sorry.
Plus I heard Scottie Reynolds has an armpit fetish and cries when he watches Lion King.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Battle 4 Atlantis Mini-Preview
Hey. Still in Utah. Ended up computer-less for the last two days due to circumstances you don't really care about. But with the Battle 4 Atlantis kicking off tomorrow I might as well do a quick little preview on the teams, starting with Duke since we know that's who the Gophers play in Round 1.
The Blue Devils are always good, but are generally at their best when they share the ball and have a wealth of scoring option rather than a single player who dominates the ball - which is how this team is constructed this year.
Center Mason Plumlee and wing Seth Curry are the two main pieces for the Dukies. Plumlee leads Duke in both scoring (21.7 per game) and rebounding (8.7) and has been extremely efficient this year hitting from the floor at a 77% clip. Obviously that's unsustainable, and according to what I've read about Plumlee he's pretty much been converting dunks and lay-ups and doesn't look to make any kind of actual post move very often. He's not particularly athletic or strong, so if Mbakwe is back to where he was last year he should be able to destroy him in the paint, and there's a non-zero possibility that he literally kills Plumlee with a dunk in his face. The way I think of it, and I apologize for this extremely nerdy analogy, is if you're playing chess and suddenly your opponent has his queen in your space and you know you're going to get destroyed, you just hope to hold on and minimize the damage. That's Mbakwe in this game because Plumlee is really the only post player Duke has and he can't handle Mbakwe. In fact, if I'm Coach K I figure out who Mbakwe is guarding (most likely Plumlee) and feed him the ball as often as possible after telling him his job is to draw fouls. I can see Mbakwe being so amped up for this game that he won't be able to settle down and two quick fouls is a very real, and very bad, possibility for the Gophers.
Curry, the brother of all-time chucker Stephen Curry, has a bit of chucker in him (he leads Duke in shot attempts) but plays more under control in Duke's system than his brother did. Between he and Rasheed Sulaimon the Gopher guards are going to have their hands full. Both can score inside or out and both hit 40% or better from three this season, and Sulaimon is a big-time distributor, averaging 3.7 assists and a total of 11 versus just 4 turnovers - great numbers for a freshman at the beginning of his career. Add in the mid-range game of Ryan Kelly (40% 3-pt shooter last year) and his ability to find the open man (2.7 assists per game this year for a 6-11 player) and if the Gophers try to play zone this game is already over.
The key for Minnesota will be in their defense, shooting, and taking care of the ball. That sounds like every game I know, but it's especially meaningful in this match-up. Duke has won (the three wins: Georgia State, Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast) by being an extremely efficient shooting team, whether due to shot selection, dead-eye accuracy, or a little of both. They shoot 38.4% from 3 this year (67th in the country) and 55.5% from two (33rd), and when combined that makes them the 28th best shooting team in the country. On the flip side, the Gophers are #1 in the country in opponent's effective field goal percentage, holding teams to 19.1% from three (#9) and 32.7% from two (3rd). That will likely be the main difference in the game.
The Gophers have big-time opportunities here in offensive rebounding and three-point shooting. Duke is not a particularly good defensive rebounding team where the Gophers excel at crashing the offensive glass, and Duke really struggles to defend the three (opponents shoot 40.8% behind the arc, 313th in the country). The Gophers aren't a great shooting team behind the line but they aren't terrible either, the key will be in knocking down those opportunities for open looks that Duke will definitely give up. The other watch-out for the Gophers is taking care of the ball. Duke plays a swarming man-to-man that causes a lot of turnovers, something that has been a major struggle for Minnesota so far this year. If this ends up being a blow-out in Duke's favor this will be the reason why.
All-in-all, the Gophers have an excellent opportunity here to grab a big-time win. Their strengths have a chance to either neutralize Duke's strengths or exploit a Blue Devil weakness. The game should be a good one, and Kenpom.com calls it a 1-point Dukie victory. If the Gophers can take care of the ball, knock down open shots, control the paint, and limit Duke's three-point shooting they can win this game. To me, that's just too much to ask. Not to mention if the Gophers end up in a close game or have a small lead Coach K could coach circles around Tubby Smith, and no matter how well the Gophers play I don't know that they can overcome that advantage.
Duke 70, Minnesota 64.
In game 2 the Gophers will face either Memphis or VCU. Memphis is currently ranked in the high teens while VCU is just behind the Gophers in "others receiving votes", and although the Tigers would clearly be the higher profile win since they're considered a Final Four contender a win over either would go a long way in March.
Memphis has started slowly, winning both of their games so far but by just 15 or 11 against extremely poor competition (North Florida and Samford). They're not a very good shooting team and that's continued this season (just 29.4% from 3), and rely more on their guards slashing and getting into the paint through penetration - and they're very good at it. Joe Jackson, Antonio Barton, and Chris Crawford are a very good three guard lineup, but one the Gophers should be able to match-up with pretty well with the Hollins brothers. The issue lies with that third guard because Joe Coleman is absolutely brutal defensively and Julian Welch isn't quick enough. Memphis only has one true post player in Tarik Black who Mbakwe should be able to handle on his own, so I'd expect the Gophers to use Rodney on one of the guards and hope they can muster enough help defense so they don't get destroyed down low by Adonis Thomas. I don't like this match-up for the Gophers and I wouldn't expect them to win this game.
VCU, on the other hand, is a game Minnesota has to have if they want a good seed in March, particularly if they meet the Rams in the losers' bracket. That's not to say VCU is bad - you'd have to be a fool to overlook a Shaka Smart team at this point and the Rams should end up hovering around the top 25 all season - it's just that if the Gophers are the team I hope and think they can be this is a game they'll win.
VCU does return four starters from last year's team who won a game in the NCAA Tournament and their style makes me very nervous. VCU plays an attacking style of defense designed to force steals - and it works (VCU led the nation in steals last season with a mark that was the highest of the last four years). With all the guards the Gophers have on paper they should be able to handle this, but on paper they're also turning the ball over this year at a rate that's one of the worst in the country. When the Rams have the ball Minnesota should be able to handle them. Although they're a very athletic and balanced team they rely on those steals to key their offense. If Minnesota takes care of the basketball they should win - although that's a very big if.
Game three will come against one of Louisville, Northern Iowa, Missouri, or Stanford. I'd guess it'll be Louisville in the Championship, Missouri in the third place game, Stanford for consolation, and Northern Iowa in the worst case scenario.
Louisville is my pick for National Champ and they play an absolutely suffocating defense. They've crushed all three opponents this year by at least 26 points and although the competition has been poor their play is what you'd expect in those situations. While the Gophers play great shot defense and VCU creates a ton of turnovers the Cardinals do both. Their only real weakness is they aren't a great shooting team, but I don't think that would matter. I don't think the Gophers would have a prayer and would be lucky to get to 50 points. If they end up playing Louisville it's a success because it likely means they won two games already.
Missouri would be another extremely touch match-up for the Gophers simply because of their speed and back-court strength. They're very similar to VCU in style of play and personnel, with both teams playing a pressing, attacking style but not necessarily pushing tempo on offense. I would be pretty excited for this match-up, simply because I'd love to watch Andre Hollins go up against Phil Pressey, who I think is the best point guard in the NCAA. Actually, what I'd really love is for Hollins to just sit and watch tape of Pressey and absorb it, but somehow I think getting schooled by him might do it better. Best case? Hollins holds his own and is better than expected. Worst case? He learns and gets better. Win-win? Yes, I agree that's a pretty generous "worst case" but it's my blog so STFU.
If they end up playing Stanford or Northern Iowa something has gone wrong, although say, losing to Duke and then beating VCU wouldn't necessarily qualify as a disaster, but in any case they have absolutely got to beat either of these squads if they match-up. Stanford, the nerds who beat the Gophers in the NIT last year, have been dreadful this year and are one of the worst shooting teams in the country which you wouldn't expect from a bunch of nerds who should know geometry and angles and stuff. Maybe they aren't real smart kids but fake smart kids like when Doug was hired to be a lawyer on King of Queens just because he was good at softball. Northwestern should take notes. But anyway these dorks just lost to Belmont.
Northern Iowa, long removed from the great days of Ali Faroukmanesh, doesn't necessarily have a blemish on their record, but one of their wins was over a non D-I team and another took overtime to beat Toledo. Despite that level of competition they simply refuse to cause turnovers which means the one way to really beat the Gophers if you're worse than them is something the Panthers don't do. To lose this game would be a travesty like Super Bowl XL or Fletch 2.
Here are your acceptable outcomes:
1. Win the whole thing
2. Win the first two
3. Beat Duke (the next two don't matter if you get that one)
4. Win consolation
That's it. That means the Gophers, at a minimum, need to win two games or beat Duke in the first game. Anything else would be a failure. I don't like failure.
The Blue Devils are always good, but are generally at their best when they share the ball and have a wealth of scoring option rather than a single player who dominates the ball - which is how this team is constructed this year.
Center Mason Plumlee and wing Seth Curry are the two main pieces for the Dukies. Plumlee leads Duke in both scoring (21.7 per game) and rebounding (8.7) and has been extremely efficient this year hitting from the floor at a 77% clip. Obviously that's unsustainable, and according to what I've read about Plumlee he's pretty much been converting dunks and lay-ups and doesn't look to make any kind of actual post move very often. He's not particularly athletic or strong, so if Mbakwe is back to where he was last year he should be able to destroy him in the paint, and there's a non-zero possibility that he literally kills Plumlee with a dunk in his face. The way I think of it, and I apologize for this extremely nerdy analogy, is if you're playing chess and suddenly your opponent has his queen in your space and you know you're going to get destroyed, you just hope to hold on and minimize the damage. That's Mbakwe in this game because Plumlee is really the only post player Duke has and he can't handle Mbakwe. In fact, if I'm Coach K I figure out who Mbakwe is guarding (most likely Plumlee) and feed him the ball as often as possible after telling him his job is to draw fouls. I can see Mbakwe being so amped up for this game that he won't be able to settle down and two quick fouls is a very real, and very bad, possibility for the Gophers.
Curry, the brother of all-time chucker Stephen Curry, has a bit of chucker in him (he leads Duke in shot attempts) but plays more under control in Duke's system than his brother did. Between he and Rasheed Sulaimon the Gopher guards are going to have their hands full. Both can score inside or out and both hit 40% or better from three this season, and Sulaimon is a big-time distributor, averaging 3.7 assists and a total of 11 versus just 4 turnovers - great numbers for a freshman at the beginning of his career. Add in the mid-range game of Ryan Kelly (40% 3-pt shooter last year) and his ability to find the open man (2.7 assists per game this year for a 6-11 player) and if the Gophers try to play zone this game is already over.
The key for Minnesota will be in their defense, shooting, and taking care of the ball. That sounds like every game I know, but it's especially meaningful in this match-up. Duke has won (the three wins: Georgia State, Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast) by being an extremely efficient shooting team, whether due to shot selection, dead-eye accuracy, or a little of both. They shoot 38.4% from 3 this year (67th in the country) and 55.5% from two (33rd), and when combined that makes them the 28th best shooting team in the country. On the flip side, the Gophers are #1 in the country in opponent's effective field goal percentage, holding teams to 19.1% from three (#9) and 32.7% from two (3rd). That will likely be the main difference in the game.
The Gophers have big-time opportunities here in offensive rebounding and three-point shooting. Duke is not a particularly good defensive rebounding team where the Gophers excel at crashing the offensive glass, and Duke really struggles to defend the three (opponents shoot 40.8% behind the arc, 313th in the country). The Gophers aren't a great shooting team behind the line but they aren't terrible either, the key will be in knocking down those opportunities for open looks that Duke will definitely give up. The other watch-out for the Gophers is taking care of the ball. Duke plays a swarming man-to-man that causes a lot of turnovers, something that has been a major struggle for Minnesota so far this year. If this ends up being a blow-out in Duke's favor this will be the reason why.
All-in-all, the Gophers have an excellent opportunity here to grab a big-time win. Their strengths have a chance to either neutralize Duke's strengths or exploit a Blue Devil weakness. The game should be a good one, and Kenpom.com calls it a 1-point Dukie victory. If the Gophers can take care of the ball, knock down open shots, control the paint, and limit Duke's three-point shooting they can win this game. To me, that's just too much to ask. Not to mention if the Gophers end up in a close game or have a small lead Coach K could coach circles around Tubby Smith, and no matter how well the Gophers play I don't know that they can overcome that advantage.
Duke 70, Minnesota 64.
In game 2 the Gophers will face either Memphis or VCU. Memphis is currently ranked in the high teens while VCU is just behind the Gophers in "others receiving votes", and although the Tigers would clearly be the higher profile win since they're considered a Final Four contender a win over either would go a long way in March.
Memphis has started slowly, winning both of their games so far but by just 15 or 11 against extremely poor competition (North Florida and Samford). They're not a very good shooting team and that's continued this season (just 29.4% from 3), and rely more on their guards slashing and getting into the paint through penetration - and they're very good at it. Joe Jackson, Antonio Barton, and Chris Crawford are a very good three guard lineup, but one the Gophers should be able to match-up with pretty well with the Hollins brothers. The issue lies with that third guard because Joe Coleman is absolutely brutal defensively and Julian Welch isn't quick enough. Memphis only has one true post player in Tarik Black who Mbakwe should be able to handle on his own, so I'd expect the Gophers to use Rodney on one of the guards and hope they can muster enough help defense so they don't get destroyed down low by Adonis Thomas. I don't like this match-up for the Gophers and I wouldn't expect them to win this game.
VCU, on the other hand, is a game Minnesota has to have if they want a good seed in March, particularly if they meet the Rams in the losers' bracket. That's not to say VCU is bad - you'd have to be a fool to overlook a Shaka Smart team at this point and the Rams should end up hovering around the top 25 all season - it's just that if the Gophers are the team I hope and think they can be this is a game they'll win.
VCU does return four starters from last year's team who won a game in the NCAA Tournament and their style makes me very nervous. VCU plays an attacking style of defense designed to force steals - and it works (VCU led the nation in steals last season with a mark that was the highest of the last four years). With all the guards the Gophers have on paper they should be able to handle this, but on paper they're also turning the ball over this year at a rate that's one of the worst in the country. When the Rams have the ball Minnesota should be able to handle them. Although they're a very athletic and balanced team they rely on those steals to key their offense. If Minnesota takes care of the basketball they should win - although that's a very big if.
Game three will come against one of Louisville, Northern Iowa, Missouri, or Stanford. I'd guess it'll be Louisville in the Championship, Missouri in the third place game, Stanford for consolation, and Northern Iowa in the worst case scenario.
Louisville is my pick for National Champ and they play an absolutely suffocating defense. They've crushed all three opponents this year by at least 26 points and although the competition has been poor their play is what you'd expect in those situations. While the Gophers play great shot defense and VCU creates a ton of turnovers the Cardinals do both. Their only real weakness is they aren't a great shooting team, but I don't think that would matter. I don't think the Gophers would have a prayer and would be lucky to get to 50 points. If they end up playing Louisville it's a success because it likely means they won two games already.
Missouri would be another extremely touch match-up for the Gophers simply because of their speed and back-court strength. They're very similar to VCU in style of play and personnel, with both teams playing a pressing, attacking style but not necessarily pushing tempo on offense. I would be pretty excited for this match-up, simply because I'd love to watch Andre Hollins go up against Phil Pressey, who I think is the best point guard in the NCAA. Actually, what I'd really love is for Hollins to just sit and watch tape of Pressey and absorb it, but somehow I think getting schooled by him might do it better. Best case? Hollins holds his own and is better than expected. Worst case? He learns and gets better. Win-win? Yes, I agree that's a pretty generous "worst case" but it's my blog so STFU.
If they end up playing Stanford or Northern Iowa something has gone wrong, although say, losing to Duke and then beating VCU wouldn't necessarily qualify as a disaster, but in any case they have absolutely got to beat either of these squads if they match-up. Stanford, the nerds who beat the Gophers in the NIT last year, have been dreadful this year and are one of the worst shooting teams in the country which you wouldn't expect from a bunch of nerds who should know geometry and angles and stuff. Maybe they aren't real smart kids but fake smart kids like when Doug was hired to be a lawyer on King of Queens just because he was good at softball. Northwestern should take notes. But anyway these dorks just lost to Belmont.
Northern Iowa, long removed from the great days of Ali Faroukmanesh, doesn't necessarily have a blemish on their record, but one of their wins was over a non D-I team and another took overtime to beat Toledo. Despite that level of competition they simply refuse to cause turnovers which means the one way to really beat the Gophers if you're worse than them is something the Panthers don't do. To lose this game would be a travesty like Super Bowl XL or Fletch 2.
Here are your acceptable outcomes:
1. Win the whole thing
2. Win the first two
3. Beat Duke (the next two don't matter if you get that one)
4. Win consolation
That's it. That means the Gophers, at a minimum, need to win two games or beat Duke in the first game. Anything else would be a failure. I don't like failure.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #25-20
Delmon effing Young. Is it possible that the dude is a legit playoff assassin? And when he blows up in the playoffs and the Tiger fans are like, "Hooray Delmon he's awesome" and all us Twins fans are kind of like "ha ha small sample size it's pure luck this dude sucks" that we're actually wrong? Like, that Delmon is a Mr. Clutch type of guy rather than a Mr. Plow type of guy? He has 8 home runs in his postseason career (115ish ABs) which would put him at like 40 for a season at that rate when his career high is 21. In seven career playoff series he's hit over .300 in four of them, which is pretty remarkable when he's never done it in a full season. He's OPSed over 1.100 twice in the playoffs, which is pretty remarkable. You know how many dudes have ever done that? Well probably a lot but I still think it's crazy that we're talking about Delmon Young. When do we pass the small sample size thing? He's over 100 ABs at this point. I'm just saying. Maybe the guy knows how to raise his game? Or actually tries in the playoffs? I don't know. Pretty crazy.
25. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. I'm getting kind of sick of VCU doing well all the time, but there's no reason to think this streak is going to end as long as Shaka Smart is still there and not coaching the Gophers. VCU even picked up two recruits off ESPN's Top 100 list, the first of the Smart era. They only lose one starter off of last year's squad, and even though he was their leading scorer last year it doesn't really matter because the way these teams are always constructed to be deep, balanced, and give plenty of minutes to plenty of players so with almost the full rotation back plus the two freshmen I think these guys will be just fine, and moving to a bigger conference (they're in the A-10 now) means they won't have to scrape and claw for an at-large bid so expect to see them in March once again. Oh, and just to rub it in, VCU is planning construction on a new basketball practice facility sometime in 2013. *killsself*
24. San Diego State Aztecs. Remember that SDSU team from two years ago that was so awesome? I loved that team, and good news for people like me, this year's Aztec team is similarly built and might be even better. Pretty much everybody of consequence on this year's squad is versatile and between 6-3 and 6-8, they have last year's two top scorers in the Mountain West back in Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin, a very good point guard in Xavier Thames, one of the best recruits in history coming in with Winston Shepard, and great depth on the bench thanks to a whole slew of transfers. Last year was a disappointment but the Aztecs still made the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season under the awesome Steve Fisher, a streak that should continue unlike my streak of winning on pulltabs which ended last night thanks to a stupid box called "Halloscream." Always stay away from seasonal gimmicks. I should have known better.
23. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Speaking of remember things, remember Luke Harangody? Well apparently he had a twin little brother because Jack Cooley is back for his senior season and he's pretty much the exact same guy. The numbers aren't quite as gaudy but the game is nearly identical as is the physical appearance to a creepy level. Even creepier than having a Harangody clone hanging around is Scott Martin is back for another year. Yes, the same Scott Martin who was part of the JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel/E'Twaun Moore/Scott Martin recruiting class at Purdue. The transfer to Notre Dame and losing a year to injury have had him in college nearly as long as Trevor Mbakwe. What it really means is that the starting front court for Notre Dame 2013 will look exactly the same as Notre Dame 2010. It would be sweet if you knew someone who went into a coma in 2010 and then just woke up and you could have them watch a Notre Dame game and convince them they were only unconscious for a couple of days.
22. Michigan State Spartans. It is a testament to the program Izzo has built that he can lose the unquestioned leader, heart and soul of the team, do everything coach on the floor guy from last year's team and not take a step back, which I suppose isn't really much of a surprise since, like LL Cool J, he's been here for years. What is a little surprising is there's no heir apparent as the go-to guy/leader that Izzo almost always has. The team's leading returning scorer is Keith Appling who is too erratic, the lone senior is Derrick Nix, who isn't good enough and got busted for pot this summer, and the team's two best players will probably end up being a freshman (Gary Harris) and a guy returning from a knee injury (Branden Dawson). Although knowing how things happen at Michigan State it wouldn't surprise me if one of these guys (or someone else) will morph into that guy. One thing's for sure, the Spartans will play defense, rebound, and will be able to change their game to match their opponent and hang with anybody. I have them as my fifth best Big 10 team, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're the last one from the conference standing in March. They're like the St. Louis Cardinals - nothing they do in the postseason is ever a surprise.
21. UNLV Runnin' Rebels. I think it's safe to say the old Rebels are back in the form of the new Rebels. Under Lon Kruger the Rebels became a walk-it-up kind of team, but with Dave Rice taking over last season they upped their tempo to top 29 in the country and it wouldn't surprise me if they were even faster this year. And they're continuing down the transfer route with Khem Birch, former McDonald's All-American, coming in from Pittsburgh and Bryce Jones, a former starter at USC, coming in this year and both expected to start with Roscoe Smith from UCONN coming in next season. Add in having their leading scorer and rebounder back from last season (Mike Moser who averaged a double double) and add in Anthony Bennett, the 7th best recruit in the country, and the Rebels are loaded with talent. The only real question is will they mesh like Tarkanian's UNLV teams, or Tarkanian's Fresno State teams? Obviously, I'm betting on the former (and you can too at 25-1 to win the whole thing).
20. Cincinnati Bearcats. It might be a bit odd to have the Bearcats this high considering they lost Yancy Gates and have nobody who can clearly replace, or even step in, for him, but they have two things that won me over. First, they seemed to be on TV a ton last year and every time I watched them they impressed me with their toughness. Remember after the big fight Xavier went into a tailspin while Cincy went on a run, culminating in a amazing streak closing out the season (wins over #7 Marquette, #14 Georgetown, and #2 Syracuse in the final month) and a run to the Sweet 16. Not to sound like some stupid cliche-ridden sportswriter guy, but these guys were warriors last year. Second, they are loaded at guard with three guys who can shoot, create, get to the rim, and play defense and I'm always a sucker for great guards. All of this is for naught if nobody can play in the paint, however, and their most talented front court guy is a redshirt freshman who is 6-7 and weighs 170 - that's not a typo. Guy's like if you took Manute Bol, shrunk him by a foot and then made him 33% skinnier. And also you'd have to take away the 3-point shot because Manute was NAILS.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Monday, March 5, 2012
Week in Review - 3/5/2012
So MLB in their infinite wisdom has decided to add a second wild card team beginning this season whereby the first round of the playoffs will consist on one game in each league between the two wild card teams, in an attempt to cash in on the excitement the Game 163s have generated the last few years in a move that was almost certainly driven by the almighty dollar.
That being said, I like it. Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner. Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up. I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Chip Armelin. I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era. He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team. I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score. For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive.
2. Colonial Conference. Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do. The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week. Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point. Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe. I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best. [NOTE: VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them. I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid. They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]
3. Indiana Hoosiers. When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it. Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe. Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it. Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over. The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year. What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought. They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered. I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats. Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February. The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45). You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong. Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Ruh roh. I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to. I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level. And then Duke won in Chapel Hill. And something snapped. The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely). I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that. And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks. Or let it. More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.
WHO SUCKED
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Lemme get this straight. First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him. Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year? So let's see. Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season. From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per. You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15? You're telling me he wouldn't take that? Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first. Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.
2. Wichita State. Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act). First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out. Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg. If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes.
3. The Pac-12. I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner. Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid. Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112). Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock. If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league. At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight. Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.
4. Iona Gaels. Well shit. I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs. That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada). They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here. If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.
5. Seton Hall Pirates. As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher." Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL. They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap. Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead. Do it for the children.
And with that I'm out of here. Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake. Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too. So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again. I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy. Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up. You hope.
Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford. Dawger finished dead last.
That being said, I like it. Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner. Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up. I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Chip Armelin. I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era. He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team. I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score. For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive.
2. Colonial Conference. Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do. The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week. Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point. Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe. I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best. [NOTE: VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them. I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid. They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]
3. Indiana Hoosiers. When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it. Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe. Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it. Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over. The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year. What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought. They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered. I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats. Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February. The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45). You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong. Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Ruh roh. I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to. I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level. And then Duke won in Chapel Hill. And something snapped. The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely). I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that. And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks. Or let it. More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.
WHO SUCKED
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Lemme get this straight. First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him. Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year? So let's see. Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season. From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per. You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15? You're telling me he wouldn't take that? Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first. Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.
2. Wichita State. Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act). First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out. Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg. If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes.
3. The Pac-12. I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner. Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid. Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112). Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock. If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league. At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight. Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.
4. Iona Gaels. Well shit. I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs. That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada). They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here. If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.
5. Seton Hall Pirates. As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher." Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL. They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap. Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead. Do it for the children.
And with that I'm out of here. Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake. Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too. So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again. I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy. Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up. You hope.
Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford. Dawger finished dead last.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Week in Review - 11/17/2011
My recap of the last Gopher game is here (the win over Fairfield). In summary, I thought that although it was a very ugly game and the offense was truly atrocious, I liked how the Gophers were able to grind out the win using tough defense and free throw shooting. That's something the teams of the past couple years wouldn't have been able to do. They haven't had any easy wins (that should change tonight), but each of their wins so far has shown something positive about this year's edition of the squad. I feel like I'm setting myself up for some serious disappointment with how I'm starting to think of this team. God I hope I'm wrong.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State. And I'm actually talking the football team here, because they were a 28 point underdog against the #2 team in the country on Friday night in Oklahoma State, one of the best offenses in the country, and they stayed with them step for step, tying the game up at 24 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth after a long ass drive culminating in a huge TD. After forcing a punt, OSU picked off the Clone QB and looked to have a shot to win, but they missed the field goal and we were headed to OT. Tied up after the first one, some LB dude who the announcer guys said was a superstar dove in front of a Brandon Weeden pass and tipped it up where some other ISU dude picked it off. All ISU had to do was run the ball straight ahead and kick the field goal to win, but instead every time they gave it to this big white dude OSU basically dove out of the way and then TD Iowa State storm the field woo-hoo! Seriously though it was pretty awesome, especially because the Cyclones haven't been to a bowl game since I think like 1945. Of course this also means the BCS Championship could end up being two SEC teams that have already met which would be yawn, but whatevs. Awesomely fun game to watch.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue didn't win the Puerto Rico Shootout (Alabama beat them in the title game), but they did answer some questions by winning their first two games over Iona and Temple. Temple is a clear tournament team and Purdue's win over them is the best win any Big 10 team has so far this year, and although people who are dumb like you are going to say "Iona? Who gives a crap about Iona?" in reality the Gaels are legit and should win the MAAC (they're much better than Fairfield) and that might be the second best win any Big 10 team has (Iona just blew out Maryland by 20+). So if you were worried about Purdue being bad, you don't really have to worry anymore. I'm glad I could make you feel better.
3. Kentucky Wildcats. It's not that what they did was super impressive or anything (winning the Hall-of-Fame tipoff tournament by beating Penn State and Old Dominion), but it's just watching this team is simply stunning. They are so freaking good. Anthony Davis is ridiculously athletic and at 6-10 has the ball handling skills of a guard and fellow freshman Marquis Teague and Michael Gilchrist are just as talented if not more so. Then they got Terrence Jones, who will probably be a top 3 pick if the NBA comes back, as well as Doron Lamb who would be the best player on almost any team in America. Add in do it all senior Darius Miller and another freshman in Kyle Wiltjer (who, by the way, just dropped 19 on Penn State) and they're just loaded. I mean it's ridiculous. Hopefully they fall apart at some point in the tournament against an opponent who can take advantage of it, because this is easily the best team in the country and I really don't want Calipari to win a title. But just wow.
4. St. Louis Billikens. It seems like Rick Majerus should have turned the St. Louis program around by now, but so far all they have to show for his four years of service is a second round appearance in the CBI. Every year St. Louis looks like they might have the players to finally contend in the A-10, and every year they don't. Maybe this is finally the seasons, because the Billikens knocked of Washington on Sunday, and although Washington isn't ranked or anything they should still be an NCAA Tournament team, so this is certainly a significant victory. Actually, looking back over Majerus's tenure there, his only other notable non-conference wins were over Nebraska and Boston College, so it's probably safe to say this is the biggest win they've had since he got there. The schedule is gooey soft until a game at New Mexico on New Year's Eve, so there's a very good chance the Billikens start off the season 11-0. There's also a very good chance they end up missing the tournament after that start, but hey, it's something.
5. Northwestern Wildcats. No it wasn't exactly murder's row, but beating LSU, Tulsa, and Seton Hall to win the Charleston Classic is still a nice accomplishment early in the year. It also made it clear that it's pretty much going to be Shurna and Crawford this year. The two were Northwestern's top two scorers in each of the three games, with both of them averaging 24 per game, and with the Wildcats averaging 79 points per game that means Shurna and Crawford accounted for 60% of the team's scoring. Actually besides those two only Luka Mirkovic and Dave Sobolewski managed to hit for double figures in any single game. And you know what they say, only having two reliable scorers is always a recipe for long term success.
WHO SUCKED
1. UCLA. Holy effing meltdown. First they lost their season opener to Loyola Marymount, which is not good but not 100% terrible. Then coach Ben Howland suspended the team's best player Reeves Nelson for basically being a whiny bitch, and the team responded by getting whooped by 20 at home by Middle freaking Tennessee State in what would easily be the most embarrassing lost of the year so far if it wasn't for Cincinnati (see below). It's ridiculous, UCLA should be good. Here's a list of the top 100 recruits currently on the roster - Norman Powell, Tyler Lamb, Josh Smith, Reeves Nelson, Brendan Lane, Jerime Anderson, David Wear, and Travis Wear - damn near the entire roster! And yet, here we are. And next up? The Maui Invitational, which means they'll probably (probably!) beat Chaminade in the opener since they got lucky there and then get their doors blown off twice and start the year 1-4. Fire Howland? Fire Howland.
2. Virginia Commonwealth. And this, Shaka Smart, is why you should have taken one of those coaching offers at a power school. When you catch lightning in a bottle like last year, as opposed to Butler who slowly built their way up, you need to parlay that into a nice step up and a big payday, lest you fade away in bolivian. VCU went down to the Charleston Classic and walked out with a shiny 7th place finish after losing to Seton Hall and Georgia Tech and then beating an incredibly shitty Western Kentucky team. Seriously, it was a nice run and a great story, but with the fluky way it happened and losing 4 of their top 5 players Smart needed to bolt. He may never get this chance again. Not a very "smart" decision, Shaka. God I'm clever.
3. Akron. When you're a good team in a terrible conference, you need to do everything in your power to boost your NCAA profile because even 1-2 conference losses makes it tough to get a bid unless you have some high profile, quality victories outside of conference. So when you're the Zips and you beat Mississippi State (at MSU, even) you're all like "dude, sweet!" Then you go to some tournament held at Valparaiso for some reason and what do you do? Lose to Valparaiso and Duquesne, two non-tournament teams. Literally, assuming you don't count things like getting hit by a meteor or the whole team dying of Gonorrhea, this is the worst thing that could have possibly happened. Considering the best teams left on the schedule are Detroit, West Virginia, and Cleveland State, Akron nearly has to run the table or damn near to get a bid. Four games into the season and it's already over. It's like the Gophers of basketball. Or something. I don't know.
4. Cincinnati. Well there's no easy way to intro this, so I'll just come out and say it: the Bearcats, who were ranked 20th in the country, lost to Presbyterian. Presbyterian, who are a D-I squad for just the fifth year. Presbyterian, who have won a total of 37 games over the last five seasons, and six of those were over non D-I schools including a win over Carver Bible College. Presbyterian, whose biggest win in history was probably the one over Wake Forest last year, the worst Big 6 NCAAB team ever I'm pretty sure. Presbyterian, who lost to Duke by 31 already this year and got beat by Western Carolina who lost to South Carolina (who lost to Elon) by 25. Presbyterian, whose nickname is the Blue Hose for the love of christ. Yes, that Presbyterian. This is an awful, awful, awful, awful, awful loss. Awful. If the Gophers were 0-3 right now they wouldn't have hurt their NCAA chances as much as Cincinnati did on Saturday. Just wow.
5. Eli Manning. Holy jesus does this guy suck. Seriously he's got to be the worst quarterback in the NFL outside of Christian Ponder. It's unbelievable that this guy won a Super Bowl, and not only won one but beat maybe the best team in NFL history in doing so. God I hope he sends David Tyree a really kick-ass Christmas present every single year, or at least let's him live in his basement. Seriously if Peyton Manning's neck is all effed up and they like, end up having to put a Frankenstein bolt through his neck and he can't turn his head at all he'd still be a way be QB than Eli. Cooper is probably better, too. And Marqueis Gray.
And I'm not writing a preview for the freaking Mount Saint Mary's game. Seriously, it's a middling team from one of the worst conferences in America whose big goal for the year is to finish .500 in conference play. This needs to be a 30 point victory.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State. And I'm actually talking the football team here, because they were a 28 point underdog against the #2 team in the country on Friday night in Oklahoma State, one of the best offenses in the country, and they stayed with them step for step, tying the game up at 24 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth after a long ass drive culminating in a huge TD. After forcing a punt, OSU picked off the Clone QB and looked to have a shot to win, but they missed the field goal and we were headed to OT. Tied up after the first one, some LB dude who the announcer guys said was a superstar dove in front of a Brandon Weeden pass and tipped it up where some other ISU dude picked it off. All ISU had to do was run the ball straight ahead and kick the field goal to win, but instead every time they gave it to this big white dude OSU basically dove out of the way and then TD Iowa State storm the field woo-hoo! Seriously though it was pretty awesome, especially because the Cyclones haven't been to a bowl game since I think like 1945. Of course this also means the BCS Championship could end up being two SEC teams that have already met which would be yawn, but whatevs. Awesomely fun game to watch.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue didn't win the Puerto Rico Shootout (Alabama beat them in the title game), but they did answer some questions by winning their first two games over Iona and Temple. Temple is a clear tournament team and Purdue's win over them is the best win any Big 10 team has so far this year, and although people who are dumb like you are going to say "Iona? Who gives a crap about Iona?" in reality the Gaels are legit and should win the MAAC (they're much better than Fairfield) and that might be the second best win any Big 10 team has (Iona just blew out Maryland by 20+). So if you were worried about Purdue being bad, you don't really have to worry anymore. I'm glad I could make you feel better.
3. Kentucky Wildcats. It's not that what they did was super impressive or anything (winning the Hall-of-Fame tipoff tournament by beating Penn State and Old Dominion), but it's just watching this team is simply stunning. They are so freaking good. Anthony Davis is ridiculously athletic and at 6-10 has the ball handling skills of a guard and fellow freshman Marquis Teague and Michael Gilchrist are just as talented if not more so. Then they got Terrence Jones, who will probably be a top 3 pick if the NBA comes back, as well as Doron Lamb who would be the best player on almost any team in America. Add in do it all senior Darius Miller and another freshman in Kyle Wiltjer (who, by the way, just dropped 19 on Penn State) and they're just loaded. I mean it's ridiculous. Hopefully they fall apart at some point in the tournament against an opponent who can take advantage of it, because this is easily the best team in the country and I really don't want Calipari to win a title. But just wow.
4. St. Louis Billikens. It seems like Rick Majerus should have turned the St. Louis program around by now, but so far all they have to show for his four years of service is a second round appearance in the CBI. Every year St. Louis looks like they might have the players to finally contend in the A-10, and every year they don't. Maybe this is finally the seasons, because the Billikens knocked of Washington on Sunday, and although Washington isn't ranked or anything they should still be an NCAA Tournament team, so this is certainly a significant victory. Actually, looking back over Majerus's tenure there, his only other notable non-conference wins were over Nebraska and Boston College, so it's probably safe to say this is the biggest win they've had since he got there. The schedule is gooey soft until a game at New Mexico on New Year's Eve, so there's a very good chance the Billikens start off the season 11-0. There's also a very good chance they end up missing the tournament after that start, but hey, it's something.
5. Northwestern Wildcats. No it wasn't exactly murder's row, but beating LSU, Tulsa, and Seton Hall to win the Charleston Classic is still a nice accomplishment early in the year. It also made it clear that it's pretty much going to be Shurna and Crawford this year. The two were Northwestern's top two scorers in each of the three games, with both of them averaging 24 per game, and with the Wildcats averaging 79 points per game that means Shurna and Crawford accounted for 60% of the team's scoring. Actually besides those two only Luka Mirkovic and Dave Sobolewski managed to hit for double figures in any single game. And you know what they say, only having two reliable scorers is always a recipe for long term success.
WHO SUCKED
1. UCLA. Holy effing meltdown. First they lost their season opener to Loyola Marymount, which is not good but not 100% terrible. Then coach Ben Howland suspended the team's best player Reeves Nelson for basically being a whiny bitch, and the team responded by getting whooped by 20 at home by Middle freaking Tennessee State in what would easily be the most embarrassing lost of the year so far if it wasn't for Cincinnati (see below). It's ridiculous, UCLA should be good. Here's a list of the top 100 recruits currently on the roster - Norman Powell, Tyler Lamb, Josh Smith, Reeves Nelson, Brendan Lane, Jerime Anderson, David Wear, and Travis Wear - damn near the entire roster! And yet, here we are. And next up? The Maui Invitational, which means they'll probably (probably!) beat Chaminade in the opener since they got lucky there and then get their doors blown off twice and start the year 1-4. Fire Howland? Fire Howland.
2. Virginia Commonwealth. And this, Shaka Smart, is why you should have taken one of those coaching offers at a power school. When you catch lightning in a bottle like last year, as opposed to Butler who slowly built their way up, you need to parlay that into a nice step up and a big payday, lest you fade away in bolivian. VCU went down to the Charleston Classic and walked out with a shiny 7th place finish after losing to Seton Hall and Georgia Tech and then beating an incredibly shitty Western Kentucky team. Seriously, it was a nice run and a great story, but with the fluky way it happened and losing 4 of their top 5 players Smart needed to bolt. He may never get this chance again. Not a very "smart" decision, Shaka. God I'm clever.
3. Akron. When you're a good team in a terrible conference, you need to do everything in your power to boost your NCAA profile because even 1-2 conference losses makes it tough to get a bid unless you have some high profile, quality victories outside of conference. So when you're the Zips and you beat Mississippi State (at MSU, even) you're all like "dude, sweet!" Then you go to some tournament held at Valparaiso for some reason and what do you do? Lose to Valparaiso and Duquesne, two non-tournament teams. Literally, assuming you don't count things like getting hit by a meteor or the whole team dying of Gonorrhea, this is the worst thing that could have possibly happened. Considering the best teams left on the schedule are Detroit, West Virginia, and Cleveland State, Akron nearly has to run the table or damn near to get a bid. Four games into the season and it's already over. It's like the Gophers of basketball. Or something. I don't know.
4. Cincinnati. Well there's no easy way to intro this, so I'll just come out and say it: the Bearcats, who were ranked 20th in the country, lost to Presbyterian. Presbyterian, who are a D-I squad for just the fifth year. Presbyterian, who have won a total of 37 games over the last five seasons, and six of those were over non D-I schools including a win over Carver Bible College. Presbyterian, whose biggest win in history was probably the one over Wake Forest last year, the worst Big 6 NCAAB team ever I'm pretty sure. Presbyterian, who lost to Duke by 31 already this year and got beat by Western Carolina who lost to South Carolina (who lost to Elon) by 25. Presbyterian, whose nickname is the Blue Hose for the love of christ. Yes, that Presbyterian. This is an awful, awful, awful, awful, awful loss. Awful. If the Gophers were 0-3 right now they wouldn't have hurt their NCAA chances as much as Cincinnati did on Saturday. Just wow.
5. Eli Manning. Holy jesus does this guy suck. Seriously he's got to be the worst quarterback in the NFL outside of Christian Ponder. It's unbelievable that this guy won a Super Bowl, and not only won one but beat maybe the best team in NFL history in doing so. God I hope he sends David Tyree a really kick-ass Christmas present every single year, or at least let's him live in his basement. Seriously if Peyton Manning's neck is all effed up and they like, end up having to put a Frankenstein bolt through his neck and he can't turn his head at all he'd still be a way be QB than Eli. Cooper is probably better, too. And Marqueis Gray.
And I'm not writing a preview for the freaking Mount Saint Mary's game. Seriously, it's a middling team from one of the worst conferences in America whose big goal for the year is to finish .500 in conference play. This needs to be a 30 point victory.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Random Thoughts on a Tuesday
A whole bunch of thoughts while watching the end of the Twins game. I'm not exactly sure what happened because it was 4-0 Yankees when I left the YMCA and I got home and put the kid to bed and now it's 4-4. So that's good. And you know this whole Yankees dominating the Twins thing does have a silver lining - this is shaping up exactly like an 80s movie. Rag tag group of misfits from the poor side of town continually beaten down by the rich, snobby, evil kids in their fancy preppy clothes, but in the end the good guys finally get over the hump and the bad guys get their comeuppance. The Twins are really just Daniel LaRusso while the Yankees are the Cobra Kai, we just need our All Valley Karate Tournament moment, and you know it's coming. Cue Bananarama.
- Well that was quite the turd sandwich on top of what might have been the most entertaining NCAA Tournament I can remember. I will say though that UCONN isn't getting nearly enough credit for Butler's poor performance. Yes, the Bulldogs missed plenty of open shots, but they also had difficulty getting good looks and the Huskies had a lot to do with that. The reason Butler only scored 2 points in the paint the entire game wasn't because they avoided getting the ball inside or because Brad Stevens made a mistake. They got the ball to Matt Howard and Andrew Smith on the block plenty of times but they just couldn't score against the height, length, and athleticism of Oriakhi, Okwandu, etc. Either there shots were blocked, altered, or they needed to do something extreme to get an open look and were at a weird angle or off balance.
Butler isn't a bad team, obviously, but this was just their second opponent of this tournament who was overwhelmingly more athletic than the Bulldogs and it showed. Old Dominion, Pitt, and Wisconsin are at about the same level as Butler, and while Florida is a more athletic squad they didn't play their best game (credit Butler) and that athleticism translates more when they have the ball rather than when they're on defense. Unfortunately for Butler, UCONN was/is playing at as high a level as anybody right now (especially defensively) and they just overwhelmed the Bulldogs, stopping basically all dribble penetration and destroying anybody who tried to score from the block.
Howard, in particular, was pretty pathetic, putting up a pretty sad 1-13 shooting performance, getting multiple shots blocked, and getting out-rebounded over and over again. For the second year in a row he looked out of place in the championship game, this time to the point that my non-basketball watching friend who I was viewing the game with picked him out as "the worst player I've ever seen." And, of course, he suckered me in and I believed in him and lost some cash on some prop bets I placed on him. I was a fool and I'm not going to let anything like that happen again. I'll be back next year to get rich. As entertaining as this year's tournament was, it was murder on the wallet.
- I'm not sure I completely understand Shaka Smart's thinking in staying at VCU. I mean I understand, I just don't know that I agree with him that he can turn VCU into a perennial powerhouse like Butler or Gonzaga, and by turning down NC State's offer he's basically wagering a million dollars a year that he can do just that. Even if you just look to next year things are going to be a struggle for VCU. They're losing Joey Rodriguez, Jamie Skeen, Brandon Rozzell, and Ed Nixon off of this year's team (that's four of their top five scorers and all-around best players) and according to Rivals the only player they have coming in to replace them right now is a non-rated forward whose other offers were from Cleveland State and Northeastern. Meanwhile VCU's previous coach Anthony Grant, who jumped to Alabama after a nice little multi-year run with Eric Maynor and Larry Sanders, is making almost $2 million a year and took a team that was so bad the previous coach was fired midseason to a team that won their division of the SEC this year, went 19-0 at home, and made the NIT final after just missing out on an NCAA Tournament bid. Basically his whole team is coming back next year and he has a great class coming in with three kids ranked in the top 125, and he's thought of as a fast riser whose next job could end up being a big one. Shaka clearly knows what he's doing, but I'm thinking he's being a bit too optimistic here.
- Finally, and this probably wraps up college basketball for the year until/unless the Gophers sign somebody or Tubby Smith finally signs on with NC State, but I would love for somebody to explain to me how they selected the participants in the College 3-point contest. I thought it was kind of bizarre that Blake Hoffarber wasn't involved, but that was before I realized Jon freaking Diebler wasn't involved. I was worried that maybe I was just being Big 10-centric, so I looked it up. Diebler ranked 3rd amongst all seniors (event is only open to seniors) in three-point makes and second in 3-point percentage. Although looking at the numbers it's kind of surprising Jimmer Fredette wasn't there. Talor Battle too. I'm not saying they're screwing it up or anything but the choices for some of the players involved just seem weird, especially since Brady Morningstar made as many threes this year as
- Speaking of white guys playing basketball, when I was at the Y tonight there was no open gym because they had "special" kids playing adapted basketball and I watched for a couple of minutes. Those kids sure do hustle but man, they have no handles.
- Twins are now winning. This is unexpected, but I'm guessing this is like the part where Daniel sprays Johnny with the hose at the Halloween dance - you feel like you got the upper hand, but the night ends with you being held up against a chain link fence while you get the shit beat out of you by guys in skeleton outfits.
- A few players who have caught my eye so far this baseball season who might be worth keeping your eye on:
- Hey, the Twins actually won. Sweet. The final out came when Joe Nathan struck out Derek Jeter on a high fastball that was clocked at 89 mph. I don't know who that sentence is worse for, but Nathan's fastball is seriously only at 89 mph there are going to be some extremely ugly game endings in our future.
- Lastly, if you like golf our good buddy Grand Slam has promised me a Masters Preview at some point tomorrow, so look for that either Wednesday night or Thursday morning. I'm sure it'll be epic. As for my picks I'm not exactly digging deep here but it's hard to argue with Mickelson the way he's playing, and Watney and Justin Rose are solid picks here as well. Sleeper picks could be David Toms or Sergio. I don't know. Trust Grand Slam, he's smoking everybody in our fantasy golf league.
- Well that was quite the turd sandwich on top of what might have been the most entertaining NCAA Tournament I can remember. I will say though that UCONN isn't getting nearly enough credit for Butler's poor performance. Yes, the Bulldogs missed plenty of open shots, but they also had difficulty getting good looks and the Huskies had a lot to do with that. The reason Butler only scored 2 points in the paint the entire game wasn't because they avoided getting the ball inside or because Brad Stevens made a mistake. They got the ball to Matt Howard and Andrew Smith on the block plenty of times but they just couldn't score against the height, length, and athleticism of Oriakhi, Okwandu, etc. Either there shots were blocked, altered, or they needed to do something extreme to get an open look and were at a weird angle or off balance.
Butler isn't a bad team, obviously, but this was just their second opponent of this tournament who was overwhelmingly more athletic than the Bulldogs and it showed. Old Dominion, Pitt, and Wisconsin are at about the same level as Butler, and while Florida is a more athletic squad they didn't play their best game (credit Butler) and that athleticism translates more when they have the ball rather than when they're on defense. Unfortunately for Butler, UCONN was/is playing at as high a level as anybody right now (especially defensively) and they just overwhelmed the Bulldogs, stopping basically all dribble penetration and destroying anybody who tried to score from the block.
Howard, in particular, was pretty pathetic, putting up a pretty sad 1-13 shooting performance, getting multiple shots blocked, and getting out-rebounded over and over again. For the second year in a row he looked out of place in the championship game, this time to the point that my non-basketball watching friend who I was viewing the game with picked him out as "the worst player I've ever seen." And, of course, he suckered me in and I believed in him and lost some cash on some prop bets I placed on him. I was a fool and I'm not going to let anything like that happen again. I'll be back next year to get rich. As entertaining as this year's tournament was, it was murder on the wallet.
- I'm not sure I completely understand Shaka Smart's thinking in staying at VCU. I mean I understand, I just don't know that I agree with him that he can turn VCU into a perennial powerhouse like Butler or Gonzaga, and by turning down NC State's offer he's basically wagering a million dollars a year that he can do just that. Even if you just look to next year things are going to be a struggle for VCU. They're losing Joey Rodriguez, Jamie Skeen, Brandon Rozzell, and Ed Nixon off of this year's team (that's four of their top five scorers and all-around best players) and according to Rivals the only player they have coming in to replace them right now is a non-rated forward whose other offers were from Cleveland State and Northeastern. Meanwhile VCU's previous coach Anthony Grant, who jumped to Alabama after a nice little multi-year run with Eric Maynor and Larry Sanders, is making almost $2 million a year and took a team that was so bad the previous coach was fired midseason to a team that won their division of the SEC this year, went 19-0 at home, and made the NIT final after just missing out on an NCAA Tournament bid. Basically his whole team is coming back next year and he has a great class coming in with three kids ranked in the top 125, and he's thought of as a fast riser whose next job could end up being a big one. Shaka clearly knows what he's doing, but I'm thinking he's being a bit too optimistic here.
- Finally, and this probably wraps up college basketball for the year until/unless the Gophers sign somebody or Tubby Smith finally signs on with NC State, but I would love for somebody to explain to me how they selected the participants in the College 3-point contest. I thought it was kind of bizarre that Blake Hoffarber wasn't involved, but that was before I realized Jon freaking Diebler wasn't involved. I was worried that maybe I was just being Big 10-centric, so I looked it up. Diebler ranked 3rd amongst all seniors (event is only open to seniors) in three-point makes and second in 3-point percentage. Although looking at the numbers it's kind of surprising Jimmer Fredette wasn't there. Talor Battle too. I'm not saying they're screwing it up or anything but the choices for some of the players involved just seem weird, especially since Brady Morningstar made as many threes this year as
- Speaking of white guys playing basketball, when I was at the Y tonight there was no open gym because they had "special" kids playing adapted basketball and I watched for a couple of minutes. Those kids sure do hustle but man, they have no handles.
- Twins are now winning. This is unexpected, but I'm guessing this is like the part where Daniel sprays Johnny with the hose at the Halloween dance - you feel like you got the upper hand, but the night ends with you being held up against a chain link fence while you get the shit beat out of you by guys in skeleton outfits.
- A few players who have caught my eye so far this baseball season who might be worth keeping your eye on:
- Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs - His numbers obviously stand out since they're ridiculous so far (.476/.522/.762) and of course they won't last but I've actually had a chance to watch several of his at-bats and looks awfully good. He's making solid contact and really driving the ball with some gap power (2 doubles and 2 triples already) and is looking like he could end up being a star. Ideally you'd like to see a little bit more plate discipline and more walks, but he's a 21-year old shortstop from the Dominican Republic - it kind of comes with the territory.
- Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers - I've talked about him on here before, but he's impressed me this year by being less of a knucklehead than I thought. He had a career year last year and was rewarded with a fat contract and I actually expected him to regress quite a bit but he's having another very good season so far. Nice work, Rick.
- Neil Walker, 2B, Pirates - Leads the league in RBI mainly due to a grandslam he hit on opening day, but has overall shown an awful lot of power (.684 slugging) for a white middle infielder. Guy must not be much of a hustler or a gamer.
- Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals - I don't know why his complete game 4-hitter against San Diego impressed me so much because it's not out of line based on his numbers from last year (2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3rd in NL RoY voting), but I guess I didn't really take him seriously because his name was Jamie and everyone knows that's a girl's name. I guess maybe he's good though.
- Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves - Since neither Dawger or Bogart could draft their joint team in our fantasy league we had the Bear come out and do it for them. When it suddenly came time to draft a relief pitcher Kimbrel was the #1 guy left on every list we had even though none of the three of us (me, Bear, Snake) had heard of him, and we laughed and we laughed thinking about the look on those two clowns faces when they saw this dude they'd never heard of on their team. Well, joke was on us because Kimbrel has been unhittable - almost literally. He's pitched two innings thus far (picking up 2 saves), faced just six batters and struck out five of them. Hell, Adam LaRoche is practically a hero because he managed to fly out. Look out for this kid.
- Hey, the Twins actually won. Sweet. The final out came when Joe Nathan struck out Derek Jeter on a high fastball that was clocked at 89 mph. I don't know who that sentence is worse for, but Nathan's fastball is seriously only at 89 mph there are going to be some extremely ugly game endings in our future.
- Lastly, if you like golf our good buddy Grand Slam has promised me a Masters Preview at some point tomorrow, so look for that either Wednesday night or Thursday morning. I'm sure it'll be epic. As for my picks I'm not exactly digging deep here but it's hard to argue with Mickelson the way he's playing, and Watney and Justin Rose are solid picks here as well. Sleeper picks could be David Toms or Sergio. I don't know. Trust Grand Slam, he's smoking everybody in our fantasy golf league.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Weekend Review - 03.28.2011
What a retardedly stupid nonsensical and awesome tournament this has been. I can't remember ever having this much fun watching. Nearly every game close, and essentially completely impossible to predict. At this point I'd bet there are more people with zero final four teams correct (including your president - suck it, commie) than even have one, and although I'm sure there are a handful of people who have two correct I'd be pretty shocked if I know anyone who does. Every year it sucks when this tournament ends because it's always the most fun sporting event to watch, but this year it's going to be even worse. Doesn't help that the Twins are speeding towards mediocrity even faster than usual, but I won't dwell on that know. Plenty of time to talk hardball after next week.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. Hard not to recognize a team that went from the First Four round to the Final Four, and a team that had the "experts" wringing their hands and bitching non-spot about how they shouldn't have gotten a bid (check the records and you'll see that I said they should be in multiple times - point me). Since you're about to get force fed more happy fun stories about VCU than you can handle I'm going to tell you a semi-funny story from Chicago instead. As most bars do at this time, the Dayton bar where we spent an inordinate amount of time had a bracket on the wall and an employee would hand write in each winner. This bar clearly had a female employee do it, because on the line where you would write the winner of the Georgetown/VCU game the chick wrote "VCU/USC." So now I'm picturing a bracket on the wall of the bar with four different winner lines with "VCU/USC" written down. I don't know, maybe you had to be there but it's pretty god damn funny.
2. Derrick Williams. Easily the most impressive player I saw this weekend and I don't even know if there was a second one. What an absolute monster. That dunk he threw down against UCONN in the second half where he basically powered through two dudes to throw down would have been the most impressive dunk of the entire tournament, except he eclipsed that one with the monster Shawn Kemp NBA Jam style slam he had against Duke. And it's not like he's a one-dimensional, Trevor Mbakwe dunking machine. He can shoot from the perimeter, rebound like a mofo, and he's excellent with the ball around the basket. I don't know what kind of NBA career he might have because I don't watch until the playoffs because I'm not retarded, but Williams is/was an absolute college beast. Probably has a huge crank, too.
3. Matt Howard. If Williams blew me away with his awesomeness, Howard blew me away with his improvement. Last year he was basically a chubby disaster against good teams and, although I don't want to say he single handedly lost the championship game against Duke, but he was so badly outplayed by Brian freaking Zoubek and looked so ridiculously out of place in that game that it's really just a testament to the brilliance of Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward that the championship went down to the wire.
Now, however, he's lost a bunch of that babyfat, added a jumper with 3-point range to his game, cut way way way down on his fouling, and is absolutely brimming with confidence. Which he should be because he's playing great. He's played some very good front courts so far this tournament in Old Dominion, Pitt, and Florida, and even the dainty Jon Leuer can be a challenge, and he's played well on both ends of the court against all of them. Last year's version of Howard would have gotten killed by Florida's super athletic dudes, but this year Howard scored 14, grabbed 5 boards, and most importantly only committed three fouls so he was able to play 40 minutes. His numbers might not jump out an grab you, but if you saw him this year and last you'd see what a massive improvement he's made, and he's a big, big reason Butler is heading to the Final Four.
4. Jeremy Lamb. All season long the one thing UCONN really needed was a second scorer to take pressure off of Kemba Walker who, despite being completely awesome, is not unstoppable despite what the media and announcers decided to make their running story (12-25 and 7-17 shooting in the two games this weekend doesn't make him unstoppable, it just makes him a high volume shooter and scorer). Lamb really stepped up, scoring 24 against San Diego State, tying a season high and was basically the whole reason UCONN won that game, and then following it up with 19 in the win over Zona. I still think he's a bit soft, but he's only a freshman so he can either take the good path and toughen up a bit and end up a pretty high level player and scorer, or he can go on about his business as he is, having games where he scores a ton and just as many games where he's nowhere to be found. I say that second thing like it's a bad thing, but I should point out that even that version of Lamb would be the best player on the Gophers, and it wouldn't even be close.
5. Kentucky Wildcats. Well I'm flabbergasted. It's rare of me to misjudge a team this badly. Actually strike that, because I think team's are better than they really are all the time, but it's rare that a team I think is terrible ends up doing something stupid like going to the Final Four. Calipari is a terrible game coach and a terrible game planner, generally winning games by having the most talent, almost in spite of himself. This year's Kentucky isn't all that talented, at least from a Calipari's most talented team perspective, so I figured an early exit was inevitable. Shocking that I got something wrong in this year's tournament I know, but apparently Brandon Knight is a lot better than I thought. Much, much better than Brandin Knight, who, of course, played for the world's most chokiest program in history in the Pitt Panthers, the same most chokiest program who I inexplicably chose as my national champion. Next year I'm not even filling out a bracket, it's getting too embarrassing. It's like if Stephen Hawking called you to hook up his tivo. From an understanding how to do it perspective, I mean. Not the whole "I have no movement in any of my limbs" thing.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wisconsin Badgers. As enjoyable as that loss was for Gopher fans and white people haters that had to be brutal for Badger fans. Really, I mean if you lose a buzzer beater game it sucks like getting punched in the stomach by a large black man who was just helping you find your glasses in a snowbank sucks - quick, painful, unexpected, but the pain subsides quickly. It sucks to lose that way, just like it sucks to lose to a team that just blows you away because they're so much better or playing so well at the time, but you can live with those losses. The way Wisconsin lost, however, has got to just gnaw away at you for a long, long time. Butler gets credit for shutting the Badgers down, but in reality they didn't do much. It was simply Wisconsin missing open shots. Over. And over. And over. And over. In the mid-first half Jordan Taylor was fouled on a three-pointer and missed the first two free-throws, and that basically summed up the night. And I loved every damn minute of it.
2. Jimmer Fredette. Did you get a chance to watch the Jimmer? Freaking amazing when he has the ball, right? Amazing shooter with unlimited range and a hair-trigger release, ability to get buy a defender off the dribble and get into the lane, an excellent eye to find open teammates for easy hoops, and just amazing body control. Really an impressive player with the ball. But did you happen to notice him when he doesn't have the ball? I've never seen a lazier god damn player in my life. He does one of three things if he doesn't have the ball:
3. Duke Blue Devils. hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha oh my god that was so awesome. It was like, all of a sudden Arizona realized, "hey, these guys are a bunch of nerds. More athletic nerds than the Northwestern dorks of course, but still nerds. And we aren't, so let's kill them" and then suddenly a dunk contest broke out and pasty white dorks and Jalen Rose's favorite type of brothers were their props. They could do the entire one shining moment montage just from dunks from this game. I think if Duke was playing a women's team that night those broads would have been running and jumping all over there heads. Or maybe a lay-up line would have broken out instead. I guess that's more realistic.
4. William Buford. Outside the Wisconsin duo of Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer, I'm not sure anybody looked crappier than Buford. Here's my impression of his game against Kentucky: clang clang clang clang clang clang and so on and so forth. Like Billy Ho once said, "I'll tell you what. Why don't we take all these bricks and build a shelter for the homeless, so maybe your mother will have a place to stay. And your sister, too. I want your mother and sister out of my house." Damn Will, you just got played by a slow, white, geeky chump. What do you mean, black ball?
5. Colton Iverson's transfer. Of all the red flags jumping up around the program regarding player defections this one has to be the worst. The rest can all be rationalized away if you are looking for a reason to do so: Royce White was a bad egg, Justin Cobbs was homesick, Paul Carter's sister was sick (ok so that one was pretty legit), Devoe Joesph is a selfish player who only cares about himself, and on and on. If you want to have blind faith in Tubby you didn't have to try to hard. For me, however, this one is a stunner and, frankly, makes me more than a little concerned.
I mean, what exactly is the reasoning here? Iverson can't possibly believe Tubby is holding him back from a professional future playing ball, so what possible rationale could he have for leaving with only one year left to play? It's not like a playing time issue makes much sense either, because of his style of play, body type, and just overall gangliness he's not going to suddenly jump up to 36 minutes a night no matter where he goes. I just don't get this one. Colton would have been my last guess at a player who would be transferring out. I fear there are some real issues with this program, and I'm starting to think this year may not have been rock bottom. If Colton can leave, anybody could. What if both Mbakwe and Rodney end up leaving? Or hell, anybody else, I don't even know any more. I just know that I'm suddenly more fearful than ever that Tubby's style of coaching isn't just not winning as many games as we'd hoped but is now actively pushing players out. Let's just move on to baseball so a different team can let me down.
And since we're almost to baseball season (preview of some sort coming soon, maybe even this week), here's the team Snake and I put together in our fantasy baseball draft. I don't know about you, but looks like a championship to me.
C - Miguel Montero, Arizona (do you realize there are like 3 good catchers? And we weren't getting stuck with freaking Wieters again. I've done that dance twice).
1B - Billy Butler, KC (fat doubles machine)
2B - Rickie Weeks, MIL (counting on last year NOT being a career year)
3B - Evan Longoria, TB (so sexy he'll steal your girlfriend)
SS - Starlin Castro, CHC (please don't suck)
OF - Mike Stanton, FLA (not the middle reliever. We're buying the hype)
OF - Austin Jackson, DET (how about just a little plate discipline?)
OF - Delmon Young, MIN (no points for fielding)
Ut - Jason Kubel, MIN (got him very, very late. Decent upside)
SP - Jon Lester, BOS (could win 25)
SP - Justin Verlander, DET (looking even more unhittable this year)
SP - Clay Buchholz, BOS (I guess we're all in on Boston)
SP - Madison Bumgarner, SF (hoping his rough spring doesn't mean anything)
RP - Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (like I said)
RP - Joakim Soria, KC (Will probably end up saving 85% of KC's wins)
RP - Drew Storen, WAS (we can't have Strausberg, so we'll take his little buddy)
Bench - 1B Justin Smoak, SEA (Of course)
Bench - SP Michael Pineda, SEA (we hit it big with Leake last year, might as well try again)
Bench - RP Chris Sale, CHW (already unhittable, just needs to get the closer gig)
Bench - SP Carl Pavano, MIN (steady enough)
CHAMPIONSHIP!
RIP Paul.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. Hard not to recognize a team that went from the First Four round to the Final Four, and a team that had the "experts" wringing their hands and bitching non-spot about how they shouldn't have gotten a bid (check the records and you'll see that I said they should be in multiple times - point me). Since you're about to get force fed more happy fun stories about VCU than you can handle I'm going to tell you a semi-funny story from Chicago instead. As most bars do at this time, the Dayton bar where we spent an inordinate amount of time had a bracket on the wall and an employee would hand write in each winner. This bar clearly had a female employee do it, because on the line where you would write the winner of the Georgetown/VCU game the chick wrote "VCU/USC." So now I'm picturing a bracket on the wall of the bar with four different winner lines with "VCU/USC" written down. I don't know, maybe you had to be there but it's pretty god damn funny.
2. Derrick Williams. Easily the most impressive player I saw this weekend and I don't even know if there was a second one. What an absolute monster. That dunk he threw down against UCONN in the second half where he basically powered through two dudes to throw down would have been the most impressive dunk of the entire tournament, except he eclipsed that one with the monster Shawn Kemp NBA Jam style slam he had against Duke. And it's not like he's a one-dimensional, Trevor Mbakwe dunking machine. He can shoot from the perimeter, rebound like a mofo, and he's excellent with the ball around the basket. I don't know what kind of NBA career he might have because I don't watch until the playoffs because I'm not retarded, but Williams is/was an absolute college beast. Probably has a huge crank, too.
3. Matt Howard. If Williams blew me away with his awesomeness, Howard blew me away with his improvement. Last year he was basically a chubby disaster against good teams and, although I don't want to say he single handedly lost the championship game against Duke, but he was so badly outplayed by Brian freaking Zoubek and looked so ridiculously out of place in that game that it's really just a testament to the brilliance of Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward that the championship went down to the wire.
Now, however, he's lost a bunch of that babyfat, added a jumper with 3-point range to his game, cut way way way down on his fouling, and is absolutely brimming with confidence. Which he should be because he's playing great. He's played some very good front courts so far this tournament in Old Dominion, Pitt, and Florida, and even the dainty Jon Leuer can be a challenge, and he's played well on both ends of the court against all of them. Last year's version of Howard would have gotten killed by Florida's super athletic dudes, but this year Howard scored 14, grabbed 5 boards, and most importantly only committed three fouls so he was able to play 40 minutes. His numbers might not jump out an grab you, but if you saw him this year and last you'd see what a massive improvement he's made, and he's a big, big reason Butler is heading to the Final Four.
4. Jeremy Lamb. All season long the one thing UCONN really needed was a second scorer to take pressure off of Kemba Walker who, despite being completely awesome, is not unstoppable despite what the media and announcers decided to make their running story (12-25 and 7-17 shooting in the two games this weekend doesn't make him unstoppable, it just makes him a high volume shooter and scorer). Lamb really stepped up, scoring 24 against San Diego State, tying a season high and was basically the whole reason UCONN won that game, and then following it up with 19 in the win over Zona. I still think he's a bit soft, but he's only a freshman so he can either take the good path and toughen up a bit and end up a pretty high level player and scorer, or he can go on about his business as he is, having games where he scores a ton and just as many games where he's nowhere to be found. I say that second thing like it's a bad thing, but I should point out that even that version of Lamb would be the best player on the Gophers, and it wouldn't even be close.
5. Kentucky Wildcats. Well I'm flabbergasted. It's rare of me to misjudge a team this badly. Actually strike that, because I think team's are better than they really are all the time, but it's rare that a team I think is terrible ends up doing something stupid like going to the Final Four. Calipari is a terrible game coach and a terrible game planner, generally winning games by having the most talent, almost in spite of himself. This year's Kentucky isn't all that talented, at least from a Calipari's most talented team perspective, so I figured an early exit was inevitable. Shocking that I got something wrong in this year's tournament I know, but apparently Brandon Knight is a lot better than I thought. Much, much better than Brandin Knight, who, of course, played for the world's most chokiest program in history in the Pitt Panthers, the same most chokiest program who I inexplicably chose as my national champion. Next year I'm not even filling out a bracket, it's getting too embarrassing. It's like if Stephen Hawking called you to hook up his tivo. From an understanding how to do it perspective, I mean. Not the whole "I have no movement in any of my limbs" thing.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wisconsin Badgers. As enjoyable as that loss was for Gopher fans and white people haters that had to be brutal for Badger fans. Really, I mean if you lose a buzzer beater game it sucks like getting punched in the stomach by a large black man who was just helping you find your glasses in a snowbank sucks - quick, painful, unexpected, but the pain subsides quickly. It sucks to lose that way, just like it sucks to lose to a team that just blows you away because they're so much better or playing so well at the time, but you can live with those losses. The way Wisconsin lost, however, has got to just gnaw away at you for a long, long time. Butler gets credit for shutting the Badgers down, but in reality they didn't do much. It was simply Wisconsin missing open shots. Over. And over. And over. And over. In the mid-first half Jordan Taylor was fouled on a three-pointer and missed the first two free-throws, and that basically summed up the night. And I loved every damn minute of it.
2. Jimmer Fredette. Did you get a chance to watch the Jimmer? Freaking amazing when he has the ball, right? Amazing shooter with unlimited range and a hair-trigger release, ability to get buy a defender off the dribble and get into the lane, an excellent eye to find open teammates for easy hoops, and just amazing body control. Really an impressive player with the ball. But did you happen to notice him when he doesn't have the ball? I've never seen a lazier god damn player in my life. He does one of three things if he doesn't have the ball:
- Stand there
- Clap his hands and call for the ball.
- Run directly at his teammate with the ball and clap his hands while calling for the ball
3. Duke Blue Devils. hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha oh my god that was so awesome. It was like, all of a sudden Arizona realized, "hey, these guys are a bunch of nerds. More athletic nerds than the Northwestern dorks of course, but still nerds. And we aren't, so let's kill them" and then suddenly a dunk contest broke out and pasty white dorks and Jalen Rose's favorite type of brothers were their props. They could do the entire one shining moment montage just from dunks from this game. I think if Duke was playing a women's team that night those broads would have been running and jumping all over there heads. Or maybe a lay-up line would have broken out instead. I guess that's more realistic.
4. William Buford. Outside the Wisconsin duo of Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer, I'm not sure anybody looked crappier than Buford. Here's my impression of his game against Kentucky: clang clang clang clang clang clang and so on and so forth. Like Billy Ho once said, "I'll tell you what. Why don't we take all these bricks and build a shelter for the homeless, so maybe your mother will have a place to stay. And your sister, too. I want your mother and sister out of my house." Damn Will, you just got played by a slow, white, geeky chump. What do you mean, black ball?
5. Colton Iverson's transfer. Of all the red flags jumping up around the program regarding player defections this one has to be the worst. The rest can all be rationalized away if you are looking for a reason to do so: Royce White was a bad egg, Justin Cobbs was homesick, Paul Carter's sister was sick (ok so that one was pretty legit), Devoe Joesph is a selfish player who only cares about himself, and on and on. If you want to have blind faith in Tubby you didn't have to try to hard. For me, however, this one is a stunner and, frankly, makes me more than a little concerned.
I mean, what exactly is the reasoning here? Iverson can't possibly believe Tubby is holding him back from a professional future playing ball, so what possible rationale could he have for leaving with only one year left to play? It's not like a playing time issue makes much sense either, because of his style of play, body type, and just overall gangliness he's not going to suddenly jump up to 36 minutes a night no matter where he goes. I just don't get this one. Colton would have been my last guess at a player who would be transferring out. I fear there are some real issues with this program, and I'm starting to think this year may not have been rock bottom. If Colton can leave, anybody could. What if both Mbakwe and Rodney end up leaving? Or hell, anybody else, I don't even know any more. I just know that I'm suddenly more fearful than ever that Tubby's style of coaching isn't just not winning as many games as we'd hoped but is now actively pushing players out. Let's just move on to baseball so a different team can let me down.
And since we're almost to baseball season (preview of some sort coming soon, maybe even this week), here's the team Snake and I put together in our fantasy baseball draft. I don't know about you, but looks like a championship to me.
C - Miguel Montero, Arizona (do you realize there are like 3 good catchers? And we weren't getting stuck with freaking Wieters again. I've done that dance twice).
1B - Billy Butler, KC (fat doubles machine)
2B - Rickie Weeks, MIL (counting on last year NOT being a career year)
3B - Evan Longoria, TB (so sexy he'll steal your girlfriend)
SS - Starlin Castro, CHC (please don't suck)
OF - Mike Stanton, FLA (not the middle reliever. We're buying the hype)
OF - Austin Jackson, DET (how about just a little plate discipline?)
OF - Delmon Young, MIN (no points for fielding)
Ut - Jason Kubel, MIN (got him very, very late. Decent upside)
SP - Jon Lester, BOS (could win 25)
SP - Justin Verlander, DET (looking even more unhittable this year)
SP - Clay Buchholz, BOS (I guess we're all in on Boston)
SP - Madison Bumgarner, SF (hoping his rough spring doesn't mean anything)
RP - Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (like I said)
RP - Joakim Soria, KC (Will probably end up saving 85% of KC's wins)
RP - Drew Storen, WAS (we can't have Strausberg, so we'll take his little buddy)
Bench - 1B Justin Smoak, SEA (Of course)
Bench - SP Michael Pineda, SEA (we hit it big with Leake last year, might as well try again)
Bench - RP Chris Sale, CHW (already unhittable, just needs to get the closer gig)
Bench - SP Carl Pavano, MIN (steady enough)
CHAMPIONSHIP!
RIP Paul.
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