Twins Stuff

The reason I'm not posting as much this Twins' season is not because they suck.  They are a far more interesting team this season than last and I'm actually enjoying this more than any season in a while.  The reason I'm not posting as much is some combination of laziness and apathy and alcoholism.  I'm not sure those last two seasons make all that much sense together but neither does your face so shut it.  Anyway, here's a bunch of Twins thoughts.  I'll try to make up for low quantity of posting with a sheer overwhelming number of words.  Goal is 2,000.  I've got some Andy Capp Hot Fries, some Jefferson's bourbon, and nothing better to do with my time right now.  I can do this.  I know it.  Let us begin.

-  Since reaching the age of reason I have purchased three Twins "jersey shirts."  Not jerseys, because I'm not a weirdo, but those shirts with the name on number on them.  I've had Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Oswaldo Arcia.  Granted the Arcia call was risky because he was in his rookie season and could have gone either way, but it's now starting to pay off because he's been white hot since getting recalled.  He's just killing the ball, putting up an ISO of .250 which would put him just outside the Top 10 in the majors if he had enough at-bats.  He's basically just decided to stop hitting groundballs because they're boring.  Arcia only puts the ball on the ground 32% of the time (4th lowest in the majors) and smacks it into the air knowing that it's more exciting that way.  He's still got a ways to go and it wouldn't kill him to learn the strikezone a little bit, but he's improved his fielding this year and is on his way to developing into a legit power hitter.  Now just stop being hurt all the time.  I'd like to be wearing my Arcia shirt for many more years.  No flame outs please.

-  This Twins signing of Kendrys Morales is weird.  Not that they can't use him.  The offense has started to teeter a bit after starting off hot and he's a career .280/.333/.480 hitter which gives him a career OPS+ of 120 - no doubt the guy's a big bat and he was 5th in the MVP voting in 2009.  It's just for this team to pony up $7.5 million for a guy who is half-year rental and whose defensive "skills" are redundant with a bunch of other guys is so far out of character I had trouble believing the news when I read it.  IF, and this is a giant IF, they're doing this to see if they can contend, and when they realize the Wild Card is a pipe dream this year they figure they'll flip him for a prospect at the deadline, then I'll tip my cap.  That, however, is a decidedly un-Twins like move.  Wait and see.

-  The Twins draft, however, was more Twins-like simply because it was incredibly perplexing.  The first pick was great - SS Nick Gordon - a toolsy high school shortstop with an excellent pedigree (Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's brother) who was no doubt one of the best (potential) players in the draft.  I even saw one writer call Gordon the best pick of the draft.  The next pick was fine - RP Nick Burdi out of Louisville.  Thought to be the best relief pitcher in the draft.  I'm not a huge fan of taking relievers, but he's supposed to be the best, he's a college guy so his track to the bigs could be short, and it gives the Twins something to point to if they decide to deal Glen Perkins when his value is at its highest, something that needs to be explored.  So ok, fine.  But then it gets crazy.

Next they took a college reliever with control issues who doesn't have a secondary pitch.  Then they went with a college reliever with control problems.  Next up was a college reliever who was a complete failure when he was a starter.  Then they took a college reliever who has already had Tommy John surgery and had a rib removed for something something words.  Following that they went with some pitcher who MLB doesn't have a scouting report for so I can't bitch about anything, and then finished up their first 8 picks with another college reliever who led Missouri in both saves and home runs who moved into the rotation at the end of the season and could be a big league starter someday if he learns a change-up.  So that's 1 position player and 7 relievers.

Does that strike anybody else as completely bizarre?  Three of these guys are definite relievers with only Burdi sounding like a big league closer.  I know relievers are important of course, but generally they're failed starters who have failed in the minor or major leagues, not already having failed in college, which is the case with two of their picks.  I know that's a simplistic view, but I can't get over this drafting sequence.  Taking college relievers and converting to starters is also dicey, but it sounds like that will likely be the Twins plan with four of these guys, all of whom either need to learn or master another pitch or two or need help with their command.  Sounds to me like a bunch of guys who are going to be converted to pitch to contact.

I mean, I know the scouting team for the Twins knows a whole lot more than me, I'm not dumb or arrogant enough to suggest differently, it just seems really, really weird to me to use this many early picks and similar types of gambles.  What about a high upside high school arm?  How about mix in a position player somewhere?  I don't know, maybe college relievers are the new market inefficiency and the Twins are playing their own version of Moneyball.  Hey, after the Morales signing we may be off in all new territory here.  I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but I am less than confident that we'll look back on this draft and be like, oh damn that was sweet.

-  He probably deserves his own post at this point after spinning another gem today, but how good has Phil Hughes been?  If you want to know nothing else about Hughes this year, just know that he has 72 strikeouts versus 8 walks on the season.  That 9-1 ratio is insane and it's really all you need to know that yes, this Phil Hughes cat is for real.  That ratio is second in the majors behind only David Price and would be the best in any full season since Cliff Lee in 2010.   Seriously impressive.

Hughes refining his control has not come at the expense of his getting pounded, which can sometimes happen when you're throwing more balls over the plate.  His line drive/ground ball/fly ball splits are pretty much identical to his career norms, and as a result his BABIP is about where it's always been.  His LOB % is right where it should be too, so it's unlikely luck is playing a major role here.  One of Hughes's biggest issues has been home runs, and although his HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched has been slashed by nearly half off his 2012-2013 rate.  He's done that because his HR/FB rate is drastically down at about half what it was from 2012-2013.  Considering his ratio so far this year would put him in the top 6 last season he's probably due for some regression, but the combination of better command and control and the move to a more manageable Target Field vs. Yankee Stadium make an improvement here likely.

Advanced metrics (FIP ranks him 11th, XFIP 30th) say Hughes is a legit #1 pitcher (assuming we go with the theory that there are 30 true #1s, just some teams might have more than one).  I'm not ready to go that far, not by a long shot, but something like a #2?  That just might be.

-  Danny Santana and Brian Dozier are staying hot, and perhaps we've got our keystone combo for the next five years or more sitting right in front of us.  Since my post after Santana's call-up he's justified my probably overhype, batting .372/.407/.500, showing the power I hoped/questioned/doubted he'd have with 2 homers and 5 doubles so far for an ISO of .128 which isn't Troy Tulowitzki-like but would rank him in the top half of all MLB shortstops and his overall performance at the plate has been unreal with a weighted on-base average of .400, second in the majors at short.  Of course Eduardo Escobar's breakout (more later) and Aaron Hicks's continued struggles have pushed Santana to center field, though the two positions are pretty much a wash as to offensive expectations (though it seems harder to find a good SS who can hit).  Though Santana has been a meh shortstop so far, he's actually been an excellent center fielder which seems hard to believe considering how little time he spent in the outfield before this year.  Ideally he'll get more time at short and field it credibly enough to play there full-time.  More on this later.

Since my post on Dozier he's put up an OPS of .871 (would be a top 20 number for all positions over the entire season) with 3 homers and 6 doubles in 15 games.  Simply put he's a power monster.  I am absolutely in love with this guy.  See my last post linked above and just the improvements and refinements he's made in his approach and how they've paid off - how can you not love him?  He's sporting the #1 walk rate in the bigs among second basemen and the #4 OBP, #2 SLG, #2 wOBA, #1 ISO, and #2 OPS - that's an all-star.  Of course he's fourth in AL balloting with no hope of closing the gap which means he'll get snubbed by some combination of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia because the Twins will get one rep and it'll be Glen Perkins, but he really should make it - he's that good.  Big, big fan and if I'm right, and I usually am, he should get plenty of other chances.

-  Ok so Escobar.  Total breakout season.  OPS by year:  .571, .537, .628, and .790 this year.  The interesting notes are the natural type progression towards a breakout and that he's already within 10 of his career high in plate appearances so he's got a lot of that whole "never had a chance" thing to him.  The question is, does this pass the smell test and Escobar is the kind of hitter who ranks , or is he a fraud?  In the latter case that's awesome!  Suddenly the Twins have hitters to build around in Dozier, Escobar, Santana, Arcia (hopefully) and maybe Trevor Plouffe (I may be too tired to get to him).  Great.  But if he's a fraud it might be even better as long as the Twins recognize it (I know but let's stick with the new Moneyball thing - for me).  In that case you capitalize on his success and flip him at the trade deadline, move Santana back to your SS of the future (he's going to be moved somewhere once Byron Buxton arrives anyway) and we move on.  So let's investigate like Scooby Doo.

First thing to check is always BABIP, and Escobar is at .383 this year against a career number of .315.  Yikes.  Bad start for the "he's for realsies" crowd.  That number is fourth in the majors.  Hard to believe it's real, but let's check line drive rate.  27.3%!  That's good!  That's 7th best in the majors and a nice improvement over last season!  Even better is that those extra percentage points towards line drives are coming from fly balls, which for a non home run hitter like Escobar is a move in the right direction.  Ok, so more liners, great.  Any reason for this?

Well his walk rate is still horrible and his K rate is up a little - neither of which say fluke but neither of which suggest growth either.  What does suggest some growth is making more contact (and clearly better contact) on balls he swings at in the strikezone.  He's also swinging at more pitches outside the zone, but making less contact, which I'm struggling to interpret (thanks booze.  and obama) but I choose to believe he's taking better swings instead of that weak crap where he used to basically swing just to make contact and hit a shitty ball (the slight uptick in K rate might be evidence of this).  Though the nerd stats are kind of mixed bag of evidence and perhaps luck here, one thing that looks very good is that other than the change-up Escobar is hitting better against every type of pitch this year than in his career, including punishing fastballs.

So the jury is still out on Escobar, but I admit things look better than I thought they would.  No matter what the case he still rates as one of the better defensive shortstops in the game and that has value either way.  Escobar may be the most interesting case on the team, simply because if they decide to move him there's a pretty clear plan in place (if you believe in Santana like I do and if you don't you're probably a terrible person who roots for Europe in the World Cup).  I'll be watching this one with much interest.  Or some interest.  At least a little interest.

So Who Did the Twins Actually Get in the Draft?

As a follow-up to my preview where I said the Twins would land Kohl Stewart at #4 (nailed it), here's a look at the rest of the players the Twins selected.  Looking at the early rounds, the Twins continued to pursue pitching and nabbed a bunch of catchers, which is definitely a weak spot in the system.  After that they went all over the board grabbing some outfielders and even more pitching.  They took a number of players near the end that are either high-schoolers that will go on to college or college juniors that might choose to go back for a final year of college ball to improve their draft status.

#4 Kohl Stewart - RHP - R/R - 6'3", 205 - St. Pius X HS (TX)

Texas A&M QB recruit that can already hit 95mph on the radar gun was the top high school pitcher selected in the draft.  The Twins have already signed Stewart, so unless he flops in the minors there is no heading back for football.  Stewart signed for the slot amount of $4,544,400. Stewart also sports a power slider to go with that heater and has some room to add on some weight to his 6'3" frame.  As a high school starter Kohl pitched 40 innings, struck out 59 and had a 0.18 ERA.  Opponents hit .099 off of him. 

Stewart is also a type 1 diabetic which I think means he needs insulin shots and lots of Quaker Oats. 

Looking at the video below you can see the mechanics need a lot of work.  He's sometimes falling off to the first base side, sometimes not.  He also sometimes over-rotates his hips; especially out of the wind-up.  And he's throwing with a lot of arm as it really whips through on pitches.  Even his front foot landing spot isn't consistent.  He doesn't tip the slider very much at all that I can see, which really makes it effective.  And holy crap does he pop the mitt on that fastball.  He's wild, but better mechanics should improve that quite a bit. 

#43 Ryan Eades - RHP- S/R - 6'3", 200 - LSU (LA)

As a Junior, Eades was LSU's Saturday starter in 2013.  Eades uses three pitches: a curve, a change and a fastball that can run up to the mid-90s.  He had 78 Ks in 100 innings and a 2.79 ERA last season.  Some have concerns about his injury history - he had a labrum tear in high school.  I'm more in the camp that everyone tears something eventually and he already got the labrum out of the way. 

Looking at his mechanics from 2012 it seemed like he got a little tangled with arms and knees when he goes with a full windup.  There's also a lot of up and down action with this hands in both the windup and stretch position.  He's since corrected that quite a bit, which is nice to see.  Today, he's pretty smooth and repeatable.  Keith Law mentions in the video below that he expected Eades to go between 21-30, so this seems like good value.  Eades has already signed with the Twins for $1.29MM.

#78 Stuart Turner - C- R/R - 6'2", 220 - Ole Miss (MS)

Turner was the Johnny Bench Award winner for the best catcher in college baseball this year.  He hit .374 with 20 extra base hits and threw out 51% of would-be base stealers.  He's considered a good to great defender with just an ok bat at this point.  The one vid I found out him showed him getting fooled badly on sliders and change-ups, so I'll just post a pic instead.

#110 Stephen Gonsalves - LHP - L/L - 6'5", 190 - Cathedral Catholic HS (CA)

Fastball has been clocked anywhere from 88-93.  He also throws a solid change and has a slurve thing.  He went 10-0 with a 1.91 ERA last year.  He's got an old school split hand pump type of windup that will have to go.  He's long and lanky and has an easy stride and arm action.  He could definitely add some weight. 

#140 Aaron Slegers - RHP - R/R - 6'10", 250 - Indiana (IN)

6'10" staff ace at Indiana.  Throws around 90, but can get it up higher on occasion.  Deron Johnson describes him as a sinkerballer and lord knows we love those guys.  Slegers was the Big 10 pitcher of the year and will be joined by fellow Hoosier roommates Dustin Demuth and Ryan Halstead.  Slegers threw 106 innings, striking 59 and had a 2.04 ERA.  Opposing hitters hit .260 off of him.

#170 Brian Navarreto - C - R/R - 6'2", 200 - Arlington Country Day School (FL)

Navarretto projects to be a good hitter with a big arm behind the plate.  His defense may need some work as evidenced by his passed ball, error and 2 stolen bases in his only game at catcher in the Gulf Coast League.  Four teammates of Navarreto's were also drafted in 2013...not bad!  Navarreto was also involved in a brawl with a Norman, Oklahoma team that was using racial slurs.

Arlington coach Ron Dickerson told the Pensacola News-Journal that he asked the umpires to address racial slurs earlier in the game. Dickerson claimed the taunts were targeted at his players, many of whom are of Dominican heritage. When the umps warned the Norman bench in the fourth inning, Dickerson claimed someone from the opposing bench said “‘Whiny. Whiny. You’re too big of a black guy to whine like that.’ “

Two innings later, Norman’s D.J. Gasso attempted to score from third base after Arlington pitcher Jonathan Rodriguez threw a wild pitch. Arlington catcher Brian Navarreto tossed the ball back to Rodriguez, who slapped a late tag on Gasso even though the runner had easily beaten the play. After the home plate umpire ejected Rodriguez for the emphatic tag, Navarreto punched Gasso in the face, which caused both benches to empty and more punches to be thrown.

That's Navaretto in the middle with the grimace I think.

#200 Brian Gilbert - RHP - R/R - 6'1", 215 - Seton Hall (NJ)

After starting in prior seasons for the Pirates, Gilbert was converted to closer for this year.  Gilbert logged 48.2 innings, striking out 49.  The walks were a bit high (22), but he only allowed 1 homerun and a .198 opposing batting average. He also hit 8 dudes.

Deron Johnson says that he was up to 96mph in the Big East tournament.  He has good size and I like the delivery for a reliever.

#230 Dustin DeMuth - 3B - L/R - 6'2", 190 - Indiana (IN)

DeMuth was the only third baseman that the Twins took in the draft.  DeMuth hit .377 for the Hoosiers and hit 5 homers and 24 doubles in 65 games.  He had his worst season of the three as a fielder, committing 19 errors playing 2B, 3B and SS. 

Here's a video of Demuth playing the Cape Cod league.

#260 Mitchell Garver - C - L/R - 6'1", 200 - New Mexico (NM)

Senior Garver was an all-american as a Junior, but was not drafted.  He's another guy that is a better hitter than he is a catcher at this point.  Garver was a finalist for the Johnny Bench award won by Turner.  Posted a 377/438/612 with 10 homeruns in 61 games. Threw out 39.6% of baserunners from behind the plate.  The video below is a year old.  His swing doesn't blow me away as he flies open too early, but you can see he has some pop.

#290 Charles Irby - RHP - R/R - 6'1", 200 - Samford University (AL)
Brings it in the mid-90s as a reliever and has a good curveball.  In 91 innings he struck out 90 and walked 33.  He allowed a .241 opponents' average.  He also hit .383 as a DH. 

#320 Nelson Molina - SS - L/R - 6'3", 175 - Antonio Lucchetti HS (Puerto Rico)
Puerto-rican left-handed hitting shortstop.  Deron Johnson says, "He's got a nice body."  He's 0-14 in the GCL so far. 

#350 Ethan Mildren - RHP - R/R - 6'4", 215 - Pitt (PA)
Fastball sits around 90.  Struck out 76 in 114 innings at Pitt.

#380 Brandon Peterson - RHP - R/R - 6'1", 190 - Wichita State (KS)
Shockers' closer has a low 90s fastball and a slider.  Peterson is originally from Savage, MN.

#410 Zack Granite - CF - L/L - 6'0", 175 - Seton Hall (NJ)
Lead-off man started all 156 games in his career at The Hall.  Stole 35 bases, hit .304 and led the team with 32 walks. Height ranges from 5'9" to 6' depending on where you look.  Weird.

#440 Derrick Penilla  - LHP - L/L - 6'2", 180 - Mt San Antonio Col (CA)
Penilla, hee hee.  Lefty throwing in the high 80s to 90mph.  Ruled at his community college, though.

#470 Brandon Bixler - LHP - R/L - 5'11", 170 - Florida Gulf Coast University (FL)

#500 Tanner Mendonca - RHP - R/R - 6'4", 215 - Sacramento State (CA)
Sucky 4.75 ERA last year, but has a big body and throws hard.

#530 Ryan Walker - SS - L/R - 6'0", 165 - University of Texas - Arlington (TX)Hit .304 for the Mustangs and hit .360 a year prior.

#560 Jared Wilson - RHP - R/R - 6'4", 210 - University of California - Santa Barbara (CA)Drafted by MN two years in a row.  Reliever has a fastball that gets up to the mid-90s. Struck out 10.72 per 9 innings last year.

#590 Jason Kanzler - CF - R/R - 6'0", 190 - University of Buffalo (NY)Mid-American Conference player of the year.  Hit .330 with 12 homers and 53 RBI in 57 games that year.  Also a good defender in CF.

#620 Tyler Stirewalt - RHP - R/R - 6'3", 210 - Fresno State (CA)The fourth of five Fresno State Bulldogs selected in the draft.  Also was a QB for the Bulldogs.

#650 Alex Swim - C - L/R - 6'0", 185 - Elon University (NC)Led team to Southern Conf championship. Hit .303 in 4 years at Elon.  Struck out 8 times in two years in HS varsity level.

#680 Zach Hayden - RHP - R/R - 6'1", 220 - U South Carolina Aiken (SC)
RP with a 6.00 ERA, but had 41 K in 21 IP and has a good breaking ball and fastball.

#710 Brandon Easton - 1B - L/L - 6'4", 200 - Lakeland CC (OH)MLB lists him as a 1B, but my research shows he's a hard-throwing lefty pitcher that had 78 Ks last year. 

#740 Chad Christiansen - OF - R/R - 6'3", 190 - Nebraska (NE)
Chad is from Cedar Rapids, so he could be playing in his home town next year in low A.  Hit .364 and has had time at short and in the OF.

#770 Ryan Halstead - RHP - L/R - 6'4", 215 - Indiana (IN)The third Indiana roommate selected by the Twins.  Deron Johnson says the reliever has a "big fastball".  That doesn't sound legal.

#800 Taylor Blatch - RHP - R/R - 5'11", 165 - Jensen Beach HS (FL)FSU signee has 3 pitches including a 95mph fastball.  Unlikely to sign with the Twins.

#830 Chris Erwin - LHP - L/L - 6'0", 167 - Grayson HS (GA)
Kennesaw State signee.  High 80s fastball.

#860 Logan Shore - RHP - R/R - 6'2", 200 - Coon Rapids Sr HS (MN)
Coon Rapids star is unlikely to sign and will opt to go to Florida.

#890 Tanner Vavra - 2B - R/R - 5'11", 190 - Valparaiso (IN)
Joe Vavra's kid has no vision in his right eye, but still hit .333. 

#920 AJ Bogucki - RHP - R/R - 6'3", 187 - Boyertown Senior HS (PA)
UNC commit has a low 90s heater.

#950 Carlos Avila - SS - R/R - 5'11", 172 - Cal State - Dominguez Hills (CA)
Hit .287 last year with one homer.

#980 Steven Sensley - OF - L/L - 6'1", 205 - University HS (LA)
Louisiana State-Eunice signee.  Has projectable power.

#1010 Ivory Thomas - CF - R/R - 5'9", 180 - Cal State - Dominguez Hills (CA)
Avila's teammate hit .388 and led the conference.  Stole 19 bases as well.

#1040 Nick Lemoncelli - LHP - L/L - 6'4", 210 - Lower Columbia College (WA)

#1070 Joseph Greenfield - RHP - R/R - 6'4", 220 - Eastern Illinois (IL)
Posted a 3.66 ERA in 93 IP.

#1100 Julien Service - OF - R/R - 6'3", 190 - Northeast Texas CC (TX)

#1130 Javier Salas - RHP - R/R - 6'4", 225 - Miami (FL)

#1160 Seth Wagner - LHP - L/L - 6'8", 220 - Mifflin County HS (PA)
Penn State signee.  He's tall.

#1190 Kelly Starnes - CF - R/R - 6'1", 190 - Los Medanos Col (CA)