The Twins hit the back stretch of the season, somewhat limping and hovering around .500 and 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot. There are two ways to look at this season. The first is that the team overachieved and could never have sustained their early season success, but a .500ish year and semi-meaningful games with an outside shot at a surprise playoff appearance a year ahead of schedule (a .500 would clear their Vegas over/under on wins by 12 games) is pretty damn neato. The second is to say that the Twins were running away with the division and collapsed, and the season is a failure. Obviously, the first way is correct and the second way is for morons.
The other success of this season is you can see the future starting to take shape. Not so much the pitching side which has too many questions for even me to try to answer, but the position players? It's happening.
There's little doubt that the opening day outfield next year will be Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario (and that should be a damn good fielding unit). Miguel Sano will have third locked down, and Brian Dozier is going to be at second for a while. 1B/DH is going to be some combination of Joe Mauer, because we're stuck with him, Trevor Plouffe, if they keep him around - he has value and they control him for two more years but he's getting spendy, and Kennys Vargas, if he remembers how to hit. Ideally Oswaldo Arcia does the same and becomes the fourth outfielder with some DH time as well. Catcher goes to Kurt Suzuki unfortunately for another year, and then the hope is either Josmil Pinto or Chris Herrmann step up. It's a nice solid start to team. But what the hell are they gonna do at shortstop?
They have three current options - Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez. They're all young and under team control so they'll probably get plenty of chances, but I don't see a full time shortstop here anywhere. Santana flashed a solid rookie year, finishing 7th in AL Rookie of the Year voting, but had all the warning signs of a fluke which came to fruition this year. In his 256 plate appearances in the majors this year he OPSed just .541, 3rd worst in all the majors, and rocked a 66-5 strikeout to walk ratio. I covered Escobar here, coming to the conclusion that his upside, last year, was adequate at best, and his downside, this year, is a crappy utility guy. Nunez seems to have moved into the starters role by default, but there's nothing there to suggest he's anything other than a replacement level utility guy, which he has been for his six big league seasons.
So what's next? Look at any Twins' top prospect list and you'll see two names, and only two names - Nick Gordon and Jorge Polanco. Gordon was picked just last year out of high school so he's probably not going to be ready until 2018 at the earliest, so it's Polanco or bust. And I'm really not sure how to feel about that.
He's certainly looked good in his limited time in the majors, slashing .313/.450/.500 with 4 walks and 3 strikeouts in 20 plate appearances and Fangraphs has him as a better than average defensive shortstop. All positive signs. His career line of .288/.349/.406 in the minors is alright, but more impressive is his 269 strikeouts to 182 walks, which shows that unlike a lot of shortstops he's not a complete hacker up there.
So what's the problem? No power at all. Zero. None. That .406 slugging over his minor league career would be one of the lower numbers in the majors this year, and if you look at his ISO, which strips out a high average influencing from influencing slugging, he's put up Ben Revere type numbers each of the last two seasons, only without the speed.
I'm not saying he's terrible or can't develop into more of an all around player. He hit very well in rookie and A ball, with some power, and he's only 21 and already at AAA with two flashes in the big leagues and he's pretty much hit for a high average everywhere. I'm fully rooting for him, it's just amazing to me that all the eggs have to be in this basket, but there's nobody else. Levi Michael was supposed to be the shortstop of the future, but he was drafted out of college in 2011 and is still stuck at AA so I don't think we can really count on him any more, especially since he has less power than Polanco.
Considering the free agent market looks pretty bare at the position for the next couple years we should all be huge Jorge Polanco fans and hope he gets to the majors, for good, sooner rather than later. Help us, Jorge Polanco, you're our only hope.
Showing posts with label Danny Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Danny Santana. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
Is Eduardo Escobar, like, good?
I was hoping the Twins would do something at the trade deadline, and they did. I was hoping they'd get bullpen help, and they did. So I suppose I'm happy with what they did. They couldn't really have done much more without gutting the future, and considering their performance since the trade deadline it looks like an every better decision to mostly stand pat. I was hoping they'd find a way to upgrade shortstop, but the two instant starters who may have been available are both expensive and have question marks (Jose Reyes and Starlin Castro) so whatevs. With Danny Santana back in the minors, it looks like Eduardo Escobar is the new shortstop, and may be for a while considering there's no readily available replacement unless Santana turns it around. So is Eduardo Escobar, like, good?
Current slash line: .239/.270/.380. Yikes. Down considerably from last year's decent .275/.315/.406. His OPS of .651 ranks him 19th in the majors among shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances - better than I would have guessed (and better than Castro). Considering Santana ranked dead last, that's manageable. Both his walk and strikeout rates are career worsts this year, and this approach change probably also accounts for his dip in BABIP from a career number .308 to .294 (it was .336 last year) and his line drive rate has plummeted from 24% to 17.8%. Both numbers are considerably worse than his career numbers, so we can hope he's just having a bad year.
One thing I've always liked about his bat is he's got some pop compared to your average shortstop. He ranks 8th in ISO (slg-avg) among shortstops with 250+ PAs, and that number has increased each of the last two years. He's also 16th in extra base hits, despite having a hundred plate appearances fewer than almost every shortstop ahead of him. Overall, he's a complete free swinger who refuses to walk and has a little bit of pop for his position. He's only 26, so his bat probably gets a passing grade, though it would be nice if he could revert back to last year's version.
He's a horrendous base stealer. He's gone 6 for 12 in his career and 2 for 5 this year, and it's probably best for everyone at this point if he just stops doing it. Though that would probably give Dan Gladden a heart attack. Seriously you ever listen to this guy on the radio? He's completely obsessed with the running game. It's maddening. Speaking of, Escobar is a pretty good base runner outside of not being able to steal base if a small child was catching. Well, actually this year he rates dead average, but last year he was slightly goodish. This is according to UBR at Fangraphs which takes note of such things as going from 1st to 3rd on a single or scoring from 1st on a double and stuff like that. Makes sense. Yet another regression from Escobar.
Last season, Escobar's fielding (at shortstop) was above average according to Ultimate Zone Rating. This year, however, like everything else it's plummeted to terrible. Granted defensive metrics aren't perfect, but considering he's on pace to make about 40% more errors than last season I can buy it. This year his UZR ranks 36th out of 40 shortstops with at least 210 innings played at SS (just ahead of Danny Santana). Last year he ranked 14th.
So what do we have? A player who would have been a competent starter last season who has been pretty rough this year. Add it all up and he's gone from 2.5 WAR last year down to -0.7 this year. Considering Santana is -1.2 he's an upgrade, but a disappointment at the same time. Last year WAR put him as the #14 shortstop in the majors. This year he's at the bottom, ahead of only Santana and Castro. Yuck.
Considering he's 26 years old and under team control through 2018 there's considerable reason for the Twins to hope he can be the new shortstop of the future. Not to mention the free agent market for shortstops is garbage. Last year he looked like he had a chance. This year, however? No, he's not good. Hopefully they don't rush Jorge Polanco.
Current slash line: .239/.270/.380. Yikes. Down considerably from last year's decent .275/.315/.406. His OPS of .651 ranks him 19th in the majors among shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances - better than I would have guessed (and better than Castro). Considering Santana ranked dead last, that's manageable. Both his walk and strikeout rates are career worsts this year, and this approach change probably also accounts for his dip in BABIP from a career number .308 to .294 (it was .336 last year) and his line drive rate has plummeted from 24% to 17.8%. Both numbers are considerably worse than his career numbers, so we can hope he's just having a bad year.
One thing I've always liked about his bat is he's got some pop compared to your average shortstop. He ranks 8th in ISO (slg-avg) among shortstops with 250+ PAs, and that number has increased each of the last two years. He's also 16th in extra base hits, despite having a hundred plate appearances fewer than almost every shortstop ahead of him. Overall, he's a complete free swinger who refuses to walk and has a little bit of pop for his position. He's only 26, so his bat probably gets a passing grade, though it would be nice if he could revert back to last year's version.
He's a horrendous base stealer. He's gone 6 for 12 in his career and 2 for 5 this year, and it's probably best for everyone at this point if he just stops doing it. Though that would probably give Dan Gladden a heart attack. Seriously you ever listen to this guy on the radio? He's completely obsessed with the running game. It's maddening. Speaking of, Escobar is a pretty good base runner outside of not being able to steal base if a small child was catching. Well, actually this year he rates dead average, but last year he was slightly goodish. This is according to UBR at Fangraphs which takes note of such things as going from 1st to 3rd on a single or scoring from 1st on a double and stuff like that. Makes sense. Yet another regression from Escobar.
Last season, Escobar's fielding (at shortstop) was above average according to Ultimate Zone Rating. This year, however, like everything else it's plummeted to terrible. Granted defensive metrics aren't perfect, but considering he's on pace to make about 40% more errors than last season I can buy it. This year his UZR ranks 36th out of 40 shortstops with at least 210 innings played at SS (just ahead of Danny Santana). Last year he ranked 14th.
So what do we have? A player who would have been a competent starter last season who has been pretty rough this year. Add it all up and he's gone from 2.5 WAR last year down to -0.7 this year. Considering Santana is -1.2 he's an upgrade, but a disappointment at the same time. Last year WAR put him as the #14 shortstop in the majors. This year he's at the bottom, ahead of only Santana and Castro. Yuck.
Considering he's 26 years old and under team control through 2018 there's considerable reason for the Twins to hope he can be the new shortstop of the future. Not to mention the free agent market for shortstops is garbage. Last year he looked like he had a chance. This year, however? No, he's not good. Hopefully they don't rush Jorge Polanco.
Sunday, June 21, 2015
Hey Some Sports Stuff Happened
Some of you who still actually read this blog have noticed I haven't posted in a while. Mostly because I was driving across the country to Utah with my wife and two idiot kids. We covered more than 2,500 miles and traveled in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Utah over the last 15 days, spending nights in 3 different hotel rooms and 2 different condos. We saw Mount Rushmore, the black hills (freaking gorgeous), a bunch of cool Mountains and stuff, swam in 3 different pools, saw some dinosaurs, a moose, a bunch of antelope, and more cows and horses than you could ever want. We drove through a true ghost town (like, a bunch of buildings and nobody living there), Deadwood (Billy the Kid died there), went through the world's biggest drug store (Wall Drug in Wall, SD) and a town with a sign advertising population 15. I drank vodka tonics out of a sports bottle at the pool, boxed wine out of a paper cup in a pitch black hotel room while the kids slept, and snuck beer in the garage at a mormon birthday party.
- The big news is that Gopher commit Jarvis Johnson will not be medically cleared to play for the Gophers due to his heart condition. This on the heels of another commit, Jonathan Nwankwo, not getting clearance to play due to some indeterminate academic issue. So what the hell is going on here? This isn't the first time the basketball team has run into issues with the admissions office - recall Djuan Piper or Gaston Diedhiou, just in the last year. Honestly I'm pretty tired of it.
I get that the University of Minnesota is among the top academic schools in the country - US News ranked it #71 in its Top Academic Universities in the nation list - and that's cool. I mean, I like seeing the U up there on that list, much better than being someone like UNLV who received a "Rank not Published" because they were so bad. The problem is, if you want to be an athletically relevant school sometimes you have to bend the rules a bit. Duke ranks #5, but William Avery, who seemed like a complete dope, got in there because he could ball. USC ranks #22 and I'm pretty sure O.J. Mayo is a moron. Georgetown ranks #20 and they let in Kenny Brunner, who ended up trying to kill somebody with a god damn samurai sword.
Look, I'm not an idiot. If there's a danger to Jarvis, and unacceptable danger, then sure, hold him out, of course. The kid's safety is paramount here so I'm not necessarily bashing this decision, just the overall state of the admissions department which seems to constantly be at odds with the basketball program. I know you can't let in some degenerate who can't read, but Nwankwo landed at VCU, which may not have the lofty academic status of the U but it still ranked in the top 200. Come on already. The Gopher athletic program will never rise to top tier status if the rest of the University actively works to hold it down. Admitting some borderline or slightly worse than borderline students who can ball the fuck out isn't going to put a black eye on the school. This program is cursed, and the tight ass admissions people sure as hell aren't helping.
And, if you'll allow me to be human for a moment, this has to just suck for Jarvis. The kid just had his dream pulled out from underneath him. Despite the report that he and his family were kind of blindsided by this it doesn't appear at this time that he's looking to transfer. That makes me think there's some legit shit going on here and not some kind of conspiracy - nobody wants another Hank Gathers situation. This is really the wrong issue to start railing on the U's admissions department because this one might make sense, it's just the latest in a series of setbacks so it's a little bit of burnout here. Ugh. Just sick of it.
- The Twins started their regression with a 2-9 stretch, but have bounced back with a 3-1 stretch and still sit at 37-31 and second place in the AL Central. I pretty much expect this kind of thing. Most likely they'll play around .500 ball the rest of the year and end up staying in contention for a Wild Card berth and things will stay interesting. I'm pretty excited about that, though it's a negative also. If the Twins hang around in contention it means guys who should probably be trading this year, especially Trevor Plouffe since his value is probably at an all-time high right now, won't be.
Hey I like Plouffe, I'm a big fan and my kid has some big giant face thing of his. But his numbers are better than how he's actually playing and it's unlikely a 29 year old suddenly hit his peak, he's a free agent after this year, and the best prospect in the system other than Buxton is a 3B. He's prime trade material. Not to mention Mike Pelfrey, who they better not resign/extend because he is terrible no matter what his fluky ERA is.
Of course, it's intoxicating to think about the playoffs, too. If they can just get in, anything can happen. Who knows how this shakes out, the Twins could end up buyers or sellers, but most likely they'll stand pat and that's probably the right move. Of course, when you're about to get a pitcher like Ervin Santana back that's as good as making a trade anyway.
Some other Twin things:
- Byron Buxton is here! He picked up his third career hit today, but that 2-20 start wasn't exactly encouraging especially since other prospects on his level have produced so far this year (Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Carlos Correa). With all the traveling and stuff I've only seen one of his at-bats and he looked fine (despite striking out) so it's hard to know if he's overmatched right now or if it's just bad luck so far, but we can look into some nerd stats to get an idea.
First thing that stands out is a BABIP of .143. Essentially no matter how much a batter may be struggling that is completely non-sustainable (the lowest BABIP for anyone in 2014 was .231 by Brian McCann). His strikeout rate is a kind of scary 33%, but it's not all that surprising considering he's been around 25% his first year at each level. His 7.7% line drive rate and 21.4% hard hit rate both suggest he's making terrible contact when he does hit the ball, however, and that's not good. His swing rate is a little high and his contact rate a little low, but nothing too concerning.
There's plenty to like here still. His speed and defense give him value even when his bat might not, and I have to believe his bat will come around simply because he's always hit and also because I have to believe it. Give him time. Nothing to panic about. Right?
- I'm pretty bummed about Danny Santana. I know the .405 BABIP pegged him as pretty much an automatic regression candidate, but he had a really good line drive rate so I thought you know, maybe. But the line drive rate has gone down, the K rate has gone up, and the walk rate has completely disappeared leading to an embarrassing .525 OPS, second worst in the majors among hitters with at least 185 PAs. Couple that with Eduardo Escobar's hot start and sending him down was pretty much a no brainer. Escobar's cooled off now, however, and Santana is crushing at Rochester (.370/.412/.543) so he'll be back up, and hopefully he'll be all straightened out.
- I don't know if anyone has noticed, and by that I mean I think everyone has noticed, but Joe Mauer has been worth -0.5 WAR this season, meaning he's worse than replacement level. Meaning you take some shlub like Chris Colabello or Chris Parmelee or whoever the equivalent would be right now in AAA and plug him in and he'd give you more than Mauer. Mauer, who is currently getting paid $23 million to completely suck at an offensively premium position. His slugging and OPS are both the worst in the American League among first basemen with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title, which means he's playing one of the most traditional power positions without supplying any power (or anything offensively, really).
His walk rate has slipped to a career worst as well, so you can't even point to his OBP (a pedestrian .329, 70 points or so lower than his career number) and say "well, at least he's getting on base." His "soft contact" percentage is the worst it's ever been, and he's already popped up in the infield twice this year. You can say that doesn't sound like much, and in some cases it isn't, but from 2011-2014 he only popped up a total of two times - not a misprint.
I don't know where to go from here. He's making $23 million per year through 2018 so he's impossible to trade unless you include something extremely premium or pick up a lot of his salary, which is pointless. The only way he's remotely tradeable is if he ups his production level, which seems unlikely since his 2009 season, the one which got him that big contract, was a complete outlier. His 28 homers that year were more than double his next best year. His batting average was nearly 40 points better than his second best year. His ISO was 60 points higher, his WAR over 2 wins better than any other year in his career, and his HR/FB was almost double any other season. Just a complete fluke.
At this point, as frequent commenter and long time reader RGHrbek mentioned in the comments, he's blocking Kennys Vargas, who needs at-bats. He could end up blocking Plouffe or Miguel Sano's move to first, and by taking up one of the 1B/DH spots he's also blocking Josmil Pinto's development. Seriously, if you could only have two of the three out of Vargas, Mauer, and Plouffe, don't you take Vargas and Plouffe? Mauer needs to be traded just to free up playing time for the younger dudes, but he's completely untradeable so here we are. Hopefully he can turn it around and give the team a little average and on base skills if nothing else. Oh and he's completely horrid defensively too, don't forget. Neat stuff.
- If you have kids go see Inside Out. It was pretty awesome.
Yeah that'll do for now.
Best of all, my kids got to spend time with their grandparents and spent 9 full days with their cousins who are about the same age and whose mom is their mom's sister and best friend and they loved every minute of it. There were many tears when we left, and my daughter vowed to be pen pals with her cousin while my son wailed "but we can't leave cousin Ike is my best friend!!!!" I dreaded doing this before we started (even though I knew it was something we should do). Yes, there were moments where it got difficult (like when the bridge in Wyoming was washed out and we had to back track 50 miles, or when the road in Wyoming was washed out and we had to go out of our way by about 130 miles), but the kids held on and were troopers despite a couple 12 hour days in the car and it was a fantastic trip all around. We will definitely do it again in a few years. And I'm going to dread every moment leading up to it.
Any way, there was some sports stuff that happened. Also Wyoming can go right to hell.
I get that the University of Minnesota is among the top academic schools in the country - US News ranked it #71 in its Top Academic Universities in the nation list - and that's cool. I mean, I like seeing the U up there on that list, much better than being someone like UNLV who received a "Rank not Published" because they were so bad. The problem is, if you want to be an athletically relevant school sometimes you have to bend the rules a bit. Duke ranks #5, but William Avery, who seemed like a complete dope, got in there because he could ball. USC ranks #22 and I'm pretty sure O.J. Mayo is a moron. Georgetown ranks #20 and they let in Kenny Brunner, who ended up trying to kill somebody with a god damn samurai sword.
Look, I'm not an idiot. If there's a danger to Jarvis, and unacceptable danger, then sure, hold him out, of course. The kid's safety is paramount here so I'm not necessarily bashing this decision, just the overall state of the admissions department which seems to constantly be at odds with the basketball program. I know you can't let in some degenerate who can't read, but Nwankwo landed at VCU, which may not have the lofty academic status of the U but it still ranked in the top 200. Come on already. The Gopher athletic program will never rise to top tier status if the rest of the University actively works to hold it down. Admitting some borderline or slightly worse than borderline students who can ball the fuck out isn't going to put a black eye on the school. This program is cursed, and the tight ass admissions people sure as hell aren't helping.
And, if you'll allow me to be human for a moment, this has to just suck for Jarvis. The kid just had his dream pulled out from underneath him. Despite the report that he and his family were kind of blindsided by this it doesn't appear at this time that he's looking to transfer. That makes me think there's some legit shit going on here and not some kind of conspiracy - nobody wants another Hank Gathers situation. This is really the wrong issue to start railing on the U's admissions department because this one might make sense, it's just the latest in a series of setbacks so it's a little bit of burnout here. Ugh. Just sick of it.
- The Twins started their regression with a 2-9 stretch, but have bounced back with a 3-1 stretch and still sit at 37-31 and second place in the AL Central. I pretty much expect this kind of thing. Most likely they'll play around .500 ball the rest of the year and end up staying in contention for a Wild Card berth and things will stay interesting. I'm pretty excited about that, though it's a negative also. If the Twins hang around in contention it means guys who should probably be trading this year, especially Trevor Plouffe since his value is probably at an all-time high right now, won't be.
Hey I like Plouffe, I'm a big fan and my kid has some big giant face thing of his. But his numbers are better than how he's actually playing and it's unlikely a 29 year old suddenly hit his peak, he's a free agent after this year, and the best prospect in the system other than Buxton is a 3B. He's prime trade material. Not to mention Mike Pelfrey, who they better not resign/extend because he is terrible no matter what his fluky ERA is.
Of course, it's intoxicating to think about the playoffs, too. If they can just get in, anything can happen. Who knows how this shakes out, the Twins could end up buyers or sellers, but most likely they'll stand pat and that's probably the right move. Of course, when you're about to get a pitcher like Ervin Santana back that's as good as making a trade anyway.
Some other Twin things:
- Byron Buxton is here! He picked up his third career hit today, but that 2-20 start wasn't exactly encouraging especially since other prospects on his level have produced so far this year (Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Carlos Correa). With all the traveling and stuff I've only seen one of his at-bats and he looked fine (despite striking out) so it's hard to know if he's overmatched right now or if it's just bad luck so far, but we can look into some nerd stats to get an idea.
First thing that stands out is a BABIP of .143. Essentially no matter how much a batter may be struggling that is completely non-sustainable (the lowest BABIP for anyone in 2014 was .231 by Brian McCann). His strikeout rate is a kind of scary 33%, but it's not all that surprising considering he's been around 25% his first year at each level. His 7.7% line drive rate and 21.4% hard hit rate both suggest he's making terrible contact when he does hit the ball, however, and that's not good. His swing rate is a little high and his contact rate a little low, but nothing too concerning.
There's plenty to like here still. His speed and defense give him value even when his bat might not, and I have to believe his bat will come around simply because he's always hit and also because I have to believe it. Give him time. Nothing to panic about. Right?
- I'm pretty bummed about Danny Santana. I know the .405 BABIP pegged him as pretty much an automatic regression candidate, but he had a really good line drive rate so I thought you know, maybe. But the line drive rate has gone down, the K rate has gone up, and the walk rate has completely disappeared leading to an embarrassing .525 OPS, second worst in the majors among hitters with at least 185 PAs. Couple that with Eduardo Escobar's hot start and sending him down was pretty much a no brainer. Escobar's cooled off now, however, and Santana is crushing at Rochester (.370/.412/.543) so he'll be back up, and hopefully he'll be all straightened out.
- I don't know if anyone has noticed, and by that I mean I think everyone has noticed, but Joe Mauer has been worth -0.5 WAR this season, meaning he's worse than replacement level. Meaning you take some shlub like Chris Colabello or Chris Parmelee or whoever the equivalent would be right now in AAA and plug him in and he'd give you more than Mauer. Mauer, who is currently getting paid $23 million to completely suck at an offensively premium position. His slugging and OPS are both the worst in the American League among first basemen with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title, which means he's playing one of the most traditional power positions without supplying any power (or anything offensively, really).
His walk rate has slipped to a career worst as well, so you can't even point to his OBP (a pedestrian .329, 70 points or so lower than his career number) and say "well, at least he's getting on base." His "soft contact" percentage is the worst it's ever been, and he's already popped up in the infield twice this year. You can say that doesn't sound like much, and in some cases it isn't, but from 2011-2014 he only popped up a total of two times - not a misprint.
I don't know where to go from here. He's making $23 million per year through 2018 so he's impossible to trade unless you include something extremely premium or pick up a lot of his salary, which is pointless. The only way he's remotely tradeable is if he ups his production level, which seems unlikely since his 2009 season, the one which got him that big contract, was a complete outlier. His 28 homers that year were more than double his next best year. His batting average was nearly 40 points better than his second best year. His ISO was 60 points higher, his WAR over 2 wins better than any other year in his career, and his HR/FB was almost double any other season. Just a complete fluke.
At this point, as frequent commenter and long time reader RGHrbek mentioned in the comments, he's blocking Kennys Vargas, who needs at-bats. He could end up blocking Plouffe or Miguel Sano's move to first, and by taking up one of the 1B/DH spots he's also blocking Josmil Pinto's development. Seriously, if you could only have two of the three out of Vargas, Mauer, and Plouffe, don't you take Vargas and Plouffe? Mauer needs to be traded just to free up playing time for the younger dudes, but he's completely untradeable so here we are. Hopefully he can turn it around and give the team a little average and on base skills if nothing else. Oh and he's completely horrid defensively too, don't forget. Neat stuff.
- If you have kids go see Inside Out. It was pretty awesome.
Yeah that'll do for now.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Twins Roster Preview - Hitter guys
With the depressing but not terribly surprising news that the Twins sent all the interesting young people back down to the minors and kept a bunch of lame-o veterans on the big league roster, I suppose it's time to turn my thoughts to baseball. Also, there's a 75% chance I hate the college basketball national champion (actually probably more like 98%) so I'm going to ignore that until it's on TV because of course I'll watch. Anyway, here's what we're dealing with from the guys who will try to hit the ball this year.
CATCHER: It'll be Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto once again. Although it's kind of boring, this is sadly probably the Twins strength given Suzuki's solid season in 2014 and Pinto's possible upside. The handling of the catcher position last year was bizarre. Signing Suzuki in case Pinto wasn't ready made sense, but then extending Suzuki and demoting Pinto was the kind of move a contending team would make, and in case you forgot the Twins were not a contending team. Suzuki's value was likely at an all-time high given his career year and All-Star appearance and moving him at the trade deadline was probably the smart move, but here we are.
Suzuki will of course be the starter again. Last year he put up a slash line of .288/.345/.383 which smashed his career numbers. His peripherals suggest some regression but not as much as I had feared, so he should be solid behind the plate again. He's not horrible defensively either, so the Twins have a legit, competent player. Neat. Hopefully he gets traded. Pinto had a solid minor league track record of hitting and had a splashy debut in 2013, but last season his bat deserted him to the tune of .219/.315/.391 and given that he's a pretty terrible fielder most/all of his value comes from his bat. He did start hitting once demoted down to AAA last year, and even in struggles he still showed good plate discipline and power when he did make contact so there's probably not too much to worry about. Other than his path being completely blocked by the stupid 2-year deal given to Suzuki. Trade him!
INFIELD: Your guy Joe Mauer will be the first baseman again, which is pretty brutal. Mauer's line of .277/.361/.371 would be slightly above average for a middle infielder, but that OPS ranked 15th among all first basemen who qualified last season, just a slight tick better than Garrett Jones. I don't know what's up with Mauer, but an increase in strikeouts coupled with a complete loss of power is fairly terrifying given his salary. He's stopped hitting fly balls, and the fly balls he does hit don't go anywhere. I don't know why or what he's doing differently but whatever it is somebody please fix it!
I'm pretty stoked about the middle infield combo of Danny Santana and Brian Dozier, and these guys could be fixtures of the team when it gets good again which it will eventually so shut up. A lot of Santana's detractors point to his BABIP of .405 and say it's unsustainable, and it is, but I found a neato expected BABIP calculator that takes a players line drive percent and all that other stuff and spits out what the BABIP should be and his came out at .369 last year, so that .405 represents a bit of luck but not this massive amount you'd usually expect from a number north of .400. I expect him to bat close to .300 again and play a shaky shortstop.
Dozier just signed what could be a steal of a deal at 4/$20, assuring the Twins won't have to shell out big money any time soon if he continues to get better or even stays the same. Of course they could be stuck with him if he goes back to sucking, but I choose to believe that isn't going to happen. He doesn't hit for a high average which makes old people sad, but he has good power and great plate discipline, not to mention an above average glove and according to fangraphs base running metric (takes into account both stealing bases and taking an extra base on a hit) he was the 3rd best base runner in the game. Add all that up, and his hair, and you get one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. Too many tools for him to breakdown. He's going to be a nice bargain for the next four years, and probably traded at the deadline in 2018.
Trevor Plouffe will be back at third again, probably for the last time. With Miguel Sano breathing down his neck and still no indication Sano's going to be anything other than a third baseman this is Plouffe's last chance to prove his value. Whether he ends up being a trade casualty (probably the best case scenario), is non-tendered in the offseason, or shows enough they want to keep him around and make him an outfielder or something he's probably done at third. He's had a solid, if mostly unspectacular (other than that one time he was super hot hitting homers) 3-4 year run and has worked hard to go from a terrible fielder to an above average one, all while being a good, not great, hitter. He's been an important part of a consistent 90-game loser and it's time to start winning. Not this year, of course, be real, but next year maybe we can think about it.
Backing these nerds up we have the two headed crap factory of Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez who I still don't know why he was resigned. Escobar showed a weird flash of power last year with 35 doubles and is a capable defender all over the place so I like having him around. Nunez is terrible at everything.
Designated Hitter should be a fun spot with Kennys Vargas (who will also back-up at 1B) now here since he can hit the crap out of a baseball. Vargs knocked out nine dingers and ten doubles in just 234 plate appearances, racking up an isolated power metric that would have put him in the Top 40 in the majors if he had qualified. Considering he's like 16 years old or something that bodes well for the future. Assuming more experience helps move his walk and strikeout rates closer to his minor league numbers (a dangerous assumption, to be sure), he could be in for a big year. He crushed the ball in spring training with 1 HR every 14 ABs and everyone loves to watch fat guys launch baseballs out of the yard so expect him to be a fan favorite.
OUTFIELD: What a mess. Aaron Hicks ruined everything, and he's back in the minors again meaning Jordan Schafer, he of the career .621 OPS, will man center, flanked by the immobile Oswaldo Arcia and the ancient Torii Hunter in what is basically guaranteed to be the worst defensive outfield in the majors. Backing up a bunch of pitchers who don't strike anyone out. Great plan.
Ok I guess there's some upside. Arcia is still really young at 24 and he was one of just three players under 24 last year to hit more than 20 home runs. He still strikes out a ton but at least his power and walk rates got better last year, which is a good sign for future development. His fielding also improved from "oh my god" to "jeez this guy is terrible", which might be his ceiling. Hunter has been pretty much the same player the last five years, at least offensively, and if he can do it again and provide "leadership" or whatever he's probably worth having around. That being said, if you think he's any kind of defensive wizard anymore you're sorely mistaken as he's now well below average even at a corner spot (stupid Father Time!). That said he can't be any worse than the Willingham/Kubel/Parmelee trio of death that spent time out there last year, so he's got that going for him.
Schafer is the wild card, sort of, mainly because the Twins opted against giving Hicks a third year out of camp (or something radical like bringing Eddie Rosario up ahead of schedule) despite Schafer never really doing much of anything batted ball-wise. He's fast, bad at hitting, and white so you know he's gritty and full of hustle and heart, but in his 147 plate appearance sample with the Twins last year he managed to hit exactly league average and it was, by far, the most successful stint of his major league career. Somehow between the Twins and Braves last year he stole 30 bases (in 37 attempts) despite just 240 plate appearances which seems completely insane to me since "getting on base" isn't really in his wheelhouse but clearly he can run, which feels exciting. He can play a passable CF as well, so I guess it's better than throwing an inanimate carbon rod out there.
Outfield back-ups will include a handful of starts from Escobar, that god damn Nunez, and teeny tiny Shane Robinson who goes by Suga Shane on Twitter. He'll fit in with the Twins since he's proven he can't hit over 452 career plate appearances. He's a 30 year old non-prospect who didn't hit in the minors either until he was much older than his competition, but a mediocre Spring Training won him a job over Hicks, though perhaps giving Hicks a regular role at AAA is for the best and I really don't know who else would be better than Robinson since they didn't sign anybody else and let's be honest it probably would have been a former Twin who was well beyond his prime anyway. Robinson is a good fielder so he'll probably have some value plugging in as a defensive replacement in the late innings when the Twins stumble into a lead.
Overall, looking like a so-so offense. They'll most likely have above average hitters in 7 of the 9 spots and the other two either have serious bounce back potential (Mauer) or tremendous speed as an asset (Schafer). The bench is pretty bad unless Pinto bounces back but it's the American League so there probably won't be too much pinch hitting anyway. Switch hitting Escobar is the only possible lefty swinger off the bench but he's been brutal against righties in his career so yeah, I'd expect a lot of sticking with the main nine guys. It's a decent offense. The real problem is the pitching, which I don't have the heart, energy, or ambition to tackle right now. Later.
CATCHER: It'll be Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto once again. Although it's kind of boring, this is sadly probably the Twins strength given Suzuki's solid season in 2014 and Pinto's possible upside. The handling of the catcher position last year was bizarre. Signing Suzuki in case Pinto wasn't ready made sense, but then extending Suzuki and demoting Pinto was the kind of move a contending team would make, and in case you forgot the Twins were not a contending team. Suzuki's value was likely at an all-time high given his career year and All-Star appearance and moving him at the trade deadline was probably the smart move, but here we are.
Suzuki will of course be the starter again. Last year he put up a slash line of .288/.345/.383 which smashed his career numbers. His peripherals suggest some regression but not as much as I had feared, so he should be solid behind the plate again. He's not horrible defensively either, so the Twins have a legit, competent player. Neat. Hopefully he gets traded. Pinto had a solid minor league track record of hitting and had a splashy debut in 2013, but last season his bat deserted him to the tune of .219/.315/.391 and given that he's a pretty terrible fielder most/all of his value comes from his bat. He did start hitting once demoted down to AAA last year, and even in struggles he still showed good plate discipline and power when he did make contact so there's probably not too much to worry about. Other than his path being completely blocked by the stupid 2-year deal given to Suzuki. Trade him!
INFIELD: Your guy Joe Mauer will be the first baseman again, which is pretty brutal. Mauer's line of .277/.361/.371 would be slightly above average for a middle infielder, but that OPS ranked 15th among all first basemen who qualified last season, just a slight tick better than Garrett Jones. I don't know what's up with Mauer, but an increase in strikeouts coupled with a complete loss of power is fairly terrifying given his salary. He's stopped hitting fly balls, and the fly balls he does hit don't go anywhere. I don't know why or what he's doing differently but whatever it is somebody please fix it!
I'm pretty stoked about the middle infield combo of Danny Santana and Brian Dozier, and these guys could be fixtures of the team when it gets good again which it will eventually so shut up. A lot of Santana's detractors point to his BABIP of .405 and say it's unsustainable, and it is, but I found a neato expected BABIP calculator that takes a players line drive percent and all that other stuff and spits out what the BABIP should be and his came out at .369 last year, so that .405 represents a bit of luck but not this massive amount you'd usually expect from a number north of .400. I expect him to bat close to .300 again and play a shaky shortstop.
Dozier just signed what could be a steal of a deal at 4/$20, assuring the Twins won't have to shell out big money any time soon if he continues to get better or even stays the same. Of course they could be stuck with him if he goes back to sucking, but I choose to believe that isn't going to happen. He doesn't hit for a high average which makes old people sad, but he has good power and great plate discipline, not to mention an above average glove and according to fangraphs base running metric (takes into account both stealing bases and taking an extra base on a hit) he was the 3rd best base runner in the game. Add all that up, and his hair, and you get one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. Too many tools for him to breakdown. He's going to be a nice bargain for the next four years, and probably traded at the deadline in 2018.
Trevor Plouffe will be back at third again, probably for the last time. With Miguel Sano breathing down his neck and still no indication Sano's going to be anything other than a third baseman this is Plouffe's last chance to prove his value. Whether he ends up being a trade casualty (probably the best case scenario), is non-tendered in the offseason, or shows enough they want to keep him around and make him an outfielder or something he's probably done at third. He's had a solid, if mostly unspectacular (other than that one time he was super hot hitting homers) 3-4 year run and has worked hard to go from a terrible fielder to an above average one, all while being a good, not great, hitter. He's been an important part of a consistent 90-game loser and it's time to start winning. Not this year, of course, be real, but next year maybe we can think about it.
Backing these nerds up we have the two headed crap factory of Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez who I still don't know why he was resigned. Escobar showed a weird flash of power last year with 35 doubles and is a capable defender all over the place so I like having him around. Nunez is terrible at everything.
Designated Hitter should be a fun spot with Kennys Vargas (who will also back-up at 1B) now here since he can hit the crap out of a baseball. Vargs knocked out nine dingers and ten doubles in just 234 plate appearances, racking up an isolated power metric that would have put him in the Top 40 in the majors if he had qualified. Considering he's like 16 years old or something that bodes well for the future. Assuming more experience helps move his walk and strikeout rates closer to his minor league numbers (a dangerous assumption, to be sure), he could be in for a big year. He crushed the ball in spring training with 1 HR every 14 ABs and everyone loves to watch fat guys launch baseballs out of the yard so expect him to be a fan favorite.
OUTFIELD: What a mess. Aaron Hicks ruined everything, and he's back in the minors again meaning Jordan Schafer, he of the career .621 OPS, will man center, flanked by the immobile Oswaldo Arcia and the ancient Torii Hunter in what is basically guaranteed to be the worst defensive outfield in the majors. Backing up a bunch of pitchers who don't strike anyone out. Great plan.
Ok I guess there's some upside. Arcia is still really young at 24 and he was one of just three players under 24 last year to hit more than 20 home runs. He still strikes out a ton but at least his power and walk rates got better last year, which is a good sign for future development. His fielding also improved from "oh my god" to "jeez this guy is terrible", which might be his ceiling. Hunter has been pretty much the same player the last five years, at least offensively, and if he can do it again and provide "leadership" or whatever he's probably worth having around. That being said, if you think he's any kind of defensive wizard anymore you're sorely mistaken as he's now well below average even at a corner spot (stupid Father Time!). That said he can't be any worse than the Willingham/Kubel/Parmelee trio of death that spent time out there last year, so he's got that going for him.
Schafer is the wild card, sort of, mainly because the Twins opted against giving Hicks a third year out of camp (or something radical like bringing Eddie Rosario up ahead of schedule) despite Schafer never really doing much of anything batted ball-wise. He's fast, bad at hitting, and white so you know he's gritty and full of hustle and heart, but in his 147 plate appearance sample with the Twins last year he managed to hit exactly league average and it was, by far, the most successful stint of his major league career. Somehow between the Twins and Braves last year he stole 30 bases (in 37 attempts) despite just 240 plate appearances which seems completely insane to me since "getting on base" isn't really in his wheelhouse but clearly he can run, which feels exciting. He can play a passable CF as well, so I guess it's better than throwing an inanimate carbon rod out there.
Outfield back-ups will include a handful of starts from Escobar, that god damn Nunez, and teeny tiny Shane Robinson who goes by Suga Shane on Twitter. He'll fit in with the Twins since he's proven he can't hit over 452 career plate appearances. He's a 30 year old non-prospect who didn't hit in the minors either until he was much older than his competition, but a mediocre Spring Training won him a job over Hicks, though perhaps giving Hicks a regular role at AAA is for the best and I really don't know who else would be better than Robinson since they didn't sign anybody else and let's be honest it probably would have been a former Twin who was well beyond his prime anyway. Robinson is a good fielder so he'll probably have some value plugging in as a defensive replacement in the late innings when the Twins stumble into a lead.
Overall, looking like a so-so offense. They'll most likely have above average hitters in 7 of the 9 spots and the other two either have serious bounce back potential (Mauer) or tremendous speed as an asset (Schafer). The bench is pretty bad unless Pinto bounces back but it's the American League so there probably won't be too much pinch hitting anyway. Switch hitting Escobar is the only possible lefty swinger off the bench but he's been brutal against righties in his career so yeah, I'd expect a lot of sticking with the main nine guys. It's a decent offense. The real problem is the pitching, which I don't have the heart, energy, or ambition to tackle right now. Later.
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Danny Santana - Future Center Fielder?
The people are clamoring for a Danny Santana related post, and when the people talk I usually get around to it sometimes maybe. So let's talk some CF/SS guy sometimes leadoff guy.
When Santana was first called up I put up a post looking into his background, and was strangely and uncharacteristically optimistic. I am happy to say that at this point he's justified the hype, hitting .313/.349/.463 while playing two of the most premium defensive positions in the game. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he'd be tied for sixth in the AL in batting average and would rank second among all major league shortstops (if he is a shortstop, which he is, except when he isn't) in OPS. He's not a crazy power hitter, but his ISO would rank 4th at his position in the league, and he's a good base runner with 12 steals against 3 caught, an acceptable success rate. All in all the Twins should be ecstatic with Santana, though we'll get into fielding later.
There is one caveat I have to point out with his hitting, and that's his crazy high .384 BABIP that would lead the entire major leagues and is simply unsustainable. Now, the good news is he's always had a high BABIP through the minors so it's not as hugely fluky as it would be if it was somebody without some past history of this type, but it's still not going to be able to continue. Mike Trout is a guy who has always blown buy BABIP league averages, but his career mark is just .361 and as much as I really like Santana, he's no Trout. Still that's not much of a concern. His walk rate is down just slightly from his minor league numbers, but his K rate is down as well while he's adding power - all fantastic signs. He's also putting up a line drive rate of 24.6%, a top 20 mark in the league and a driver of high BABIP (suggesting less luck). If he can cut down on infield pop-ups (12.3%, a bottom 30 mark) he could be even better. Really, this kid can hit.
The fact that he's doing this while learning a new position, a position he shouldn't have to learn on the fly, is all the more impressive. Thanks to the Twins' complete and total mismanagement of the Aaron Hicks situation and center field in general, somebody needed to suddenly become a CF, and the Twins chose Santana despite his grand total of 25 games played out there in his 4 minor league seasons, just 2 of which came after 2012. And, as you'd expect, he's been pretty brutal out there. According to UZR he ranks 29th out of 39 center fielders with at least 350 innings played there this year, although as a testament to how unreliable defensive metrics are some of the guys who rank as worse than him are Trout, Ben Revere, and Andrew McCutchen so take it for what it's worth. In any case, the eye test backs it up on Santana. His footwork and the routes he takes to balls are often terrible, and his arm is weak enough that runners have no issue taking extra bases whenever possible.
That's not to say he's doomed to be a below average outfielder. He has potential, namely speed which I'm sure is what the Twins saw, and he's not exactly a great shortstop so it's not like you're hurting yourself moving him off the infield. Even if Santana pans out and Byron Buxton lives up to expectations you're ok moving Santana to left (or back to short) since Buxton's supposed to be a good enough hitter to help offset some power deficiency from a corner OF spot. Which is all just a round about way of saying that with about a half season on the books, Danny Santana looks like a legit major league hitter. He just needs to find a position.
Is there any doubt the Twins screw this up?
When Santana was first called up I put up a post looking into his background, and was strangely and uncharacteristically optimistic. I am happy to say that at this point he's justified the hype, hitting .313/.349/.463 while playing two of the most premium defensive positions in the game. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he'd be tied for sixth in the AL in batting average and would rank second among all major league shortstops (if he is a shortstop, which he is, except when he isn't) in OPS. He's not a crazy power hitter, but his ISO would rank 4th at his position in the league, and he's a good base runner with 12 steals against 3 caught, an acceptable success rate. All in all the Twins should be ecstatic with Santana, though we'll get into fielding later.
There is one caveat I have to point out with his hitting, and that's his crazy high .384 BABIP that would lead the entire major leagues and is simply unsustainable. Now, the good news is he's always had a high BABIP through the minors so it's not as hugely fluky as it would be if it was somebody without some past history of this type, but it's still not going to be able to continue. Mike Trout is a guy who has always blown buy BABIP league averages, but his career mark is just .361 and as much as I really like Santana, he's no Trout. Still that's not much of a concern. His walk rate is down just slightly from his minor league numbers, but his K rate is down as well while he's adding power - all fantastic signs. He's also putting up a line drive rate of 24.6%, a top 20 mark in the league and a driver of high BABIP (suggesting less luck). If he can cut down on infield pop-ups (12.3%, a bottom 30 mark) he could be even better. Really, this kid can hit.
The fact that he's doing this while learning a new position, a position he shouldn't have to learn on the fly, is all the more impressive. Thanks to the Twins' complete and total mismanagement of the Aaron Hicks situation and center field in general, somebody needed to suddenly become a CF, and the Twins chose Santana despite his grand total of 25 games played out there in his 4 minor league seasons, just 2 of which came after 2012. And, as you'd expect, he's been pretty brutal out there. According to UZR he ranks 29th out of 39 center fielders with at least 350 innings played there this year, although as a testament to how unreliable defensive metrics are some of the guys who rank as worse than him are Trout, Ben Revere, and Andrew McCutchen so take it for what it's worth. In any case, the eye test backs it up on Santana. His footwork and the routes he takes to balls are often terrible, and his arm is weak enough that runners have no issue taking extra bases whenever possible.
That's not to say he's doomed to be a below average outfielder. He has potential, namely speed which I'm sure is what the Twins saw, and he's not exactly a great shortstop so it's not like you're hurting yourself moving him off the infield. Even if Santana pans out and Byron Buxton lives up to expectations you're ok moving Santana to left (or back to short) since Buxton's supposed to be a good enough hitter to help offset some power deficiency from a corner OF spot. Which is all just a round about way of saying that with about a half season on the books, Danny Santana looks like a legit major league hitter. He just needs to find a position.
Is there any doubt the Twins screw this up?
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Twins Stuff
The reason I'm not posting as much this Twins' season is not because they suck. They are a far more interesting team this season than last and I'm actually enjoying this more than any season in a while. The reason I'm not posting as much is some combination of laziness and apathy and alcoholism. I'm not sure those last two seasons make all that much sense together but neither does your face so shut it. Anyway, here's a bunch of Twins thoughts. I'll try to make up for low quantity of posting with a sheer overwhelming number of words. Goal is 2,000. I've got some Andy Capp Hot Fries, some Jefferson's bourbon, and nothing better to do with my time right now. I can do this. I know it. Let us begin.
- Since reaching the age of reason I have purchased three Twins "jersey shirts." Not jerseys, because I'm not a weirdo, but those shirts with the name on number on them. I've had Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Oswaldo Arcia. Granted the Arcia call was risky because he was in his rookie season and could have gone either way, but it's now starting to pay off because he's been white hot since getting recalled. He's just killing the ball, putting up an ISO of .250 which would put him just outside the Top 10 in the majors if he had enough at-bats. He's basically just decided to stop hitting groundballs because they're boring. Arcia only puts the ball on the ground 32% of the time (4th lowest in the majors) and smacks it into the air knowing that it's more exciting that way. He's still got a ways to go and it wouldn't kill him to learn the strikezone a little bit, but he's improved his fielding this year and is on his way to developing into a legit power hitter. Now just stop being hurt all the time. I'd like to be wearing my Arcia shirt for many more years. No flame outs please.
- This Twins signing of Kendrys Morales is weird. Not that they can't use him. The offense has started to teeter a bit after starting off hot and he's a career .280/.333/.480 hitter which gives him a career OPS+ of 120 - no doubt the guy's a big bat and he was 5th in the MVP voting in 2009. It's just for this team to pony up $7.5 million for a guy who is half-year rental and whose defensive "skills" are redundant with a bunch of other guys is so far out of character I had trouble believing the news when I read it. IF, and this is a giant IF, they're doing this to see if they can contend, and when they realize the Wild Card is a pipe dream this year they figure they'll flip him for a prospect at the deadline, then I'll tip my cap. That, however, is a decidedly un-Twins like move. Wait and see.
- The Twins draft, however, was more Twins-like simply because it was incredibly perplexing. The first pick was great - SS Nick Gordon - a toolsy high school shortstop with an excellent pedigree (Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's brother) who was no doubt one of the best (potential) players in the draft. I even saw one writer call Gordon the best pick of the draft. The next pick was fine - RP Nick Burdi out of Louisville. Thought to be the best relief pitcher in the draft. I'm not a huge fan of taking relievers, but he's supposed to be the best, he's a college guy so his track to the bigs could be short, and it gives the Twins something to point to if they decide to deal Glen Perkins when his value is at its highest, something that needs to be explored. So ok, fine. But then it gets crazy.
Next they took a college reliever with control issues who doesn't have a secondary pitch. Then they went with a college reliever with control problems. Next up was a college reliever who was a complete failure when he was a starter. Then they took a college reliever who has already had Tommy John surgery and had a rib removed for something something words. Following that they went with some pitcher who MLB doesn't have a scouting report for so I can't bitch about anything, and then finished up their first 8 picks with another college reliever who led Missouri in both saves and home runs who moved into the rotation at the end of the season and could be a big league starter someday if he learns a change-up. So that's 1 position player and 7 relievers.
Does that strike anybody else as completely bizarre? Three of these guys are definite relievers with only Burdi sounding like a big league closer. I know relievers are important of course, but generally they're failed starters who have failed in the minor or major leagues, not already having failed in college, which is the case with two of their picks. I know that's a simplistic view, but I can't get over this drafting sequence. Taking college relievers and converting to starters is also dicey, but it sounds like that will likely be the Twins plan with four of these guys, all of whom either need to learn or master another pitch or two or need help with their command. Sounds to me like a bunch of guys who are going to be converted to pitch to contact.
I mean, I know the scouting team for the Twins knows a whole lot more than me, I'm not dumb or arrogant enough to suggest differently, it just seems really, really weird to me to use this many early picks and similar types of gambles. What about a high upside high school arm? How about mix in a position player somewhere? I don't know, maybe college relievers are the new market inefficiency and the Twins are playing their own version of Moneyball. Hey, after the Morales signing we may be off in all new territory here. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but I am less than confident that we'll look back on this draft and be like, oh damn that was sweet.
- He probably deserves his own post at this point after spinning another gem today, but how good has Phil Hughes been? If you want to know nothing else about Hughes this year, just know that he has 72 strikeouts versus 8 walks on the season. That 9-1 ratio is insane and it's really all you need to know that yes, this Phil Hughes cat is for real. That ratio is second in the majors behind only David Price and would be the best in any full season since Cliff Lee in 2010. Seriously impressive.
Hughes refining his control has not come at the expense of his getting pounded, which can sometimes happen when you're throwing more balls over the plate. His line drive/ground ball/fly ball splits are pretty much identical to his career norms, and as a result his BABIP is about where it's always been. His LOB % is right where it should be too, so it's unlikely luck is playing a major role here. One of Hughes's biggest issues has been home runs, and although his HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched has been slashed by nearly half off his 2012-2013 rate. He's done that because his HR/FB rate is drastically down at about half what it was from 2012-2013. Considering his ratio so far this year would put him in the top 6 last season he's probably due for some regression, but the combination of better command and control and the move to a more manageable Target Field vs. Yankee Stadium make an improvement here likely.
Advanced metrics (FIP ranks him 11th, XFIP 30th) say Hughes is a legit #1 pitcher (assuming we go with the theory that there are 30 true #1s, just some teams might have more than one). I'm not ready to go that far, not by a long shot, but something like a #2? That just might be.
- Danny Santana and Brian Dozier are staying hot, and perhaps we've got our keystone combo for the next five years or more sitting right in front of us. Since my post after Santana's call-up he's justified my probably overhype, batting .372/.407/.500, showing the power I hoped/questioned/doubted he'd have with 2 homers and 5 doubles so far for an ISO of .128 which isn't Troy Tulowitzki-like but would rank him in the top half of all MLB shortstops and his overall performance at the plate has been unreal with a weighted on-base average of .400, second in the majors at short. Of course Eduardo Escobar's breakout (more later) and Aaron Hicks's continued struggles have pushed Santana to center field, though the two positions are pretty much a wash as to offensive expectations (though it seems harder to find a good SS who can hit). Though Santana has been a meh shortstop so far, he's actually been an excellent center fielder which seems hard to believe considering how little time he spent in the outfield before this year. Ideally he'll get more time at short and field it credibly enough to play there full-time. More on this later.
Since my post on Dozier he's put up an OPS of .871 (would be a top 20 number for all positions over the entire season) with 3 homers and 6 doubles in 15 games. Simply put he's a power monster. I am absolutely in love with this guy. See my last post linked above and just the improvements and refinements he's made in his approach and how they've paid off - how can you not love him? He's sporting the #1 walk rate in the bigs among second basemen and the #4 OBP, #2 SLG, #2 wOBA, #1 ISO, and #2 OPS - that's an all-star. Of course he's fourth in AL balloting with no hope of closing the gap which means he'll get snubbed by some combination of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia because the Twins will get one rep and it'll be Glen Perkins, but he really should make it - he's that good. Big, big fan and if I'm right, and I usually am, he should get plenty of other chances.
- Ok so Escobar. Total breakout season. OPS by year: .571, .537, .628, and .790 this year. The interesting notes are the natural type progression towards a breakout and that he's already within 10 of his career high in plate appearances so he's got a lot of that whole "never had a chance" thing to him. The question is, does this pass the smell test and Escobar is the kind of hitter who ranks , or is he a fraud? In the latter case that's awesome! Suddenly the Twins have hitters to build around in Dozier, Escobar, Santana, Arcia (hopefully) and maybe Trevor Plouffe (I may be too tired to get to him). Great. But if he's a fraud it might be even better as long as the Twins recognize it (I know but let's stick with the new Moneyball thing - for me). In that case you capitalize on his success and flip him at the trade deadline, move Santana back to your SS of the future (he's going to be moved somewhere once Byron Buxton arrives anyway) and we move on. So let's investigate like Scooby Doo.
First thing to check is always BABIP, and Escobar is at .383 this year against a career number of .315. Yikes. Bad start for the "he's for realsies" crowd. That number is fourth in the majors. Hard to believe it's real, but let's check line drive rate. 27.3%! That's good! That's 7th best in the majors and a nice improvement over last season! Even better is that those extra percentage points towards line drives are coming from fly balls, which for a non home run hitter like Escobar is a move in the right direction. Ok, so more liners, great. Any reason for this?
Well his walk rate is still horrible and his K rate is up a little - neither of which say fluke but neither of which suggest growth either. What does suggest some growth is making more contact (and clearly better contact) on balls he swings at in the strikezone. He's also swinging at more pitches outside the zone, but making less contact, which I'm struggling to interpret (thanks booze. and obama) but I choose to believe he's taking better swings instead of that weak crap where he used to basically swing just to make contact and hit a shitty ball (the slight uptick in K rate might be evidence of this). Though the nerd stats are kind of mixed bag of evidence and perhaps luck here, one thing that looks very good is that other than the change-up Escobar is hitting better against every type of pitch this year than in his career, including punishing fastballs.
So the jury is still out on Escobar, but I admit things look better than I thought they would. No matter what the case he still rates as one of the better defensive shortstops in the game and that has value either way. Escobar may be the most interesting case on the team, simply because if they decide to move him there's a pretty clear plan in place (if you believe in Santana like I do and if you don't you're probably a terrible person who roots for Europe in the World Cup). I'll be watching this one with much interest. Or some interest. At least a little interest.
- Since reaching the age of reason I have purchased three Twins "jersey shirts." Not jerseys, because I'm not a weirdo, but those shirts with the name on number on them. I've had Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Oswaldo Arcia. Granted the Arcia call was risky because he was in his rookie season and could have gone either way, but it's now starting to pay off because he's been white hot since getting recalled. He's just killing the ball, putting up an ISO of .250 which would put him just outside the Top 10 in the majors if he had enough at-bats. He's basically just decided to stop hitting groundballs because they're boring. Arcia only puts the ball on the ground 32% of the time (4th lowest in the majors) and smacks it into the air knowing that it's more exciting that way. He's still got a ways to go and it wouldn't kill him to learn the strikezone a little bit, but he's improved his fielding this year and is on his way to developing into a legit power hitter. Now just stop being hurt all the time. I'd like to be wearing my Arcia shirt for many more years. No flame outs please.
- This Twins signing of Kendrys Morales is weird. Not that they can't use him. The offense has started to teeter a bit after starting off hot and he's a career .280/.333/.480 hitter which gives him a career OPS+ of 120 - no doubt the guy's a big bat and he was 5th in the MVP voting in 2009. It's just for this team to pony up $7.5 million for a guy who is half-year rental and whose defensive "skills" are redundant with a bunch of other guys is so far out of character I had trouble believing the news when I read it. IF, and this is a giant IF, they're doing this to see if they can contend, and when they realize the Wild Card is a pipe dream this year they figure they'll flip him for a prospect at the deadline, then I'll tip my cap. That, however, is a decidedly un-Twins like move. Wait and see.
- The Twins draft, however, was more Twins-like simply because it was incredibly perplexing. The first pick was great - SS Nick Gordon - a toolsy high school shortstop with an excellent pedigree (Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's brother) who was no doubt one of the best (potential) players in the draft. I even saw one writer call Gordon the best pick of the draft. The next pick was fine - RP Nick Burdi out of Louisville. Thought to be the best relief pitcher in the draft. I'm not a huge fan of taking relievers, but he's supposed to be the best, he's a college guy so his track to the bigs could be short, and it gives the Twins something to point to if they decide to deal Glen Perkins when his value is at its highest, something that needs to be explored. So ok, fine. But then it gets crazy.
Next they took a college reliever with control issues who doesn't have a secondary pitch. Then they went with a college reliever with control problems. Next up was a college reliever who was a complete failure when he was a starter. Then they took a college reliever who has already had Tommy John surgery and had a rib removed for something something words. Following that they went with some pitcher who MLB doesn't have a scouting report for so I can't bitch about anything, and then finished up their first 8 picks with another college reliever who led Missouri in both saves and home runs who moved into the rotation at the end of the season and could be a big league starter someday if he learns a change-up. So that's 1 position player and 7 relievers.
Does that strike anybody else as completely bizarre? Three of these guys are definite relievers with only Burdi sounding like a big league closer. I know relievers are important of course, but generally they're failed starters who have failed in the minor or major leagues, not already having failed in college, which is the case with two of their picks. I know that's a simplistic view, but I can't get over this drafting sequence. Taking college relievers and converting to starters is also dicey, but it sounds like that will likely be the Twins plan with four of these guys, all of whom either need to learn or master another pitch or two or need help with their command. Sounds to me like a bunch of guys who are going to be converted to pitch to contact.
I mean, I know the scouting team for the Twins knows a whole lot more than me, I'm not dumb or arrogant enough to suggest differently, it just seems really, really weird to me to use this many early picks and similar types of gambles. What about a high upside high school arm? How about mix in a position player somewhere? I don't know, maybe college relievers are the new market inefficiency and the Twins are playing their own version of Moneyball. Hey, after the Morales signing we may be off in all new territory here. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but I am less than confident that we'll look back on this draft and be like, oh damn that was sweet.
- He probably deserves his own post at this point after spinning another gem today, but how good has Phil Hughes been? If you want to know nothing else about Hughes this year, just know that he has 72 strikeouts versus 8 walks on the season. That 9-1 ratio is insane and it's really all you need to know that yes, this Phil Hughes cat is for real. That ratio is second in the majors behind only David Price and would be the best in any full season since Cliff Lee in 2010. Seriously impressive.
Hughes refining his control has not come at the expense of his getting pounded, which can sometimes happen when you're throwing more balls over the plate. His line drive/ground ball/fly ball splits are pretty much identical to his career norms, and as a result his BABIP is about where it's always been. His LOB % is right where it should be too, so it's unlikely luck is playing a major role here. One of Hughes's biggest issues has been home runs, and although his HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched has been slashed by nearly half off his 2012-2013 rate. He's done that because his HR/FB rate is drastically down at about half what it was from 2012-2013. Considering his ratio so far this year would put him in the top 6 last season he's probably due for some regression, but the combination of better command and control and the move to a more manageable Target Field vs. Yankee Stadium make an improvement here likely.
Advanced metrics (FIP ranks him 11th, XFIP 30th) say Hughes is a legit #1 pitcher (assuming we go with the theory that there are 30 true #1s, just some teams might have more than one). I'm not ready to go that far, not by a long shot, but something like a #2? That just might be.
- Danny Santana and Brian Dozier are staying hot, and perhaps we've got our keystone combo for the next five years or more sitting right in front of us. Since my post after Santana's call-up he's justified my probably overhype, batting .372/.407/.500, showing the power I hoped/questioned/doubted he'd have with 2 homers and 5 doubles so far for an ISO of .128 which isn't Troy Tulowitzki-like but would rank him in the top half of all MLB shortstops and his overall performance at the plate has been unreal with a weighted on-base average of .400, second in the majors at short. Of course Eduardo Escobar's breakout (more later) and Aaron Hicks's continued struggles have pushed Santana to center field, though the two positions are pretty much a wash as to offensive expectations (though it seems harder to find a good SS who can hit). Though Santana has been a meh shortstop so far, he's actually been an excellent center fielder which seems hard to believe considering how little time he spent in the outfield before this year. Ideally he'll get more time at short and field it credibly enough to play there full-time. More on this later.
Since my post on Dozier he's put up an OPS of .871 (would be a top 20 number for all positions over the entire season) with 3 homers and 6 doubles in 15 games. Simply put he's a power monster. I am absolutely in love with this guy. See my last post linked above and just the improvements and refinements he's made in his approach and how they've paid off - how can you not love him? He's sporting the #1 walk rate in the bigs among second basemen and the #4 OBP, #2 SLG, #2 wOBA, #1 ISO, and #2 OPS - that's an all-star. Of course he's fourth in AL balloting with no hope of closing the gap which means he'll get snubbed by some combination of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia because the Twins will get one rep and it'll be Glen Perkins, but he really should make it - he's that good. Big, big fan and if I'm right, and I usually am, he should get plenty of other chances.
- Ok so Escobar. Total breakout season. OPS by year: .571, .537, .628, and .790 this year. The interesting notes are the natural type progression towards a breakout and that he's already within 10 of his career high in plate appearances so he's got a lot of that whole "never had a chance" thing to him. The question is, does this pass the smell test and Escobar is the kind of hitter who ranks , or is he a fraud? In the latter case that's awesome! Suddenly the Twins have hitters to build around in Dozier, Escobar, Santana, Arcia (hopefully) and maybe Trevor Plouffe (I may be too tired to get to him). Great. But if he's a fraud it might be even better as long as the Twins recognize it (I know but let's stick with the new Moneyball thing - for me). In that case you capitalize on his success and flip him at the trade deadline, move Santana back to your SS of the future (he's going to be moved somewhere once Byron Buxton arrives anyway) and we move on. So let's investigate like Scooby Doo.
First thing to check is always BABIP, and Escobar is at .383 this year against a career number of .315. Yikes. Bad start for the "he's for realsies" crowd. That number is fourth in the majors. Hard to believe it's real, but let's check line drive rate. 27.3%! That's good! That's 7th best in the majors and a nice improvement over last season! Even better is that those extra percentage points towards line drives are coming from fly balls, which for a non home run hitter like Escobar is a move in the right direction. Ok, so more liners, great. Any reason for this?
Well his walk rate is still horrible and his K rate is up a little - neither of which say fluke but neither of which suggest growth either. What does suggest some growth is making more contact (and clearly better contact) on balls he swings at in the strikezone. He's also swinging at more pitches outside the zone, but making less contact, which I'm struggling to interpret (thanks booze. and obama) but I choose to believe he's taking better swings instead of that weak crap where he used to basically swing just to make contact and hit a shitty ball (the slight uptick in K rate might be evidence of this). Though the nerd stats are kind of mixed bag of evidence and perhaps luck here, one thing that looks very good is that other than the change-up Escobar is hitting better against every type of pitch this year than in his career, including punishing fastballs.
So the jury is still out on Escobar, but I admit things look better than I thought they would. No matter what the case he still rates as one of the better defensive shortstops in the game and that has value either way. Escobar may be the most interesting case on the team, simply because if they decide to move him there's a pretty clear plan in place (if you believe in Santana like I do and if you don't you're probably a terrible person who roots for Europe in the World Cup). I'll be watching this one with much interest. Or some interest. At least a little interest.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Who's this Danny Santana guy?
One thing you can be sure of when you're a fan of a crappy baseball team is there will be people running in and out of the lineup you've never heard of all the time, and with the Twins' crappy options at shortstop given Pedro Florimon's inability to hit at all they've gone with the revolving door approach at the position. I should have hit on Eduardo Nunez after they acquired him, and may still do that, but with Danny Santana getting all the playing time lately it's time to figure out just who the hell this guy is.
John Sickels from minorleagueball.com ranked him the Twins' #15 prospect, Baseball America ranked him ninth, and Aaron Gleeman put him at #14. In short, he's a possible "shortstop of the future" and somehow we should be paying very close attention to and pulling for as hard as you can pull. If you click on that Baseball America link you can see his ranking within the organization the last four years has gone 25-20-11-9, so he's been improving and moving in the right direction. Sickels had estimated he'd be up late 2014, so he's a little bit ahead of schedule. But I'm getting ahead of myself. We should look at a little background.
Santana was signed out of the Dominican by the Twins as a 17-year old and who has had a rather rapid rise to AAA, playing at a below average age for the league at each stop. His career slash line is .274/.318/.393, which means he walks little and doesn't have much power - then again as a shortstop you don't necessarily need those things to be effective. He has some speed with 117 career minor league steals with a decent success rate of 69%, and although he strikes out a lot (career 18.5%) he had improved in 2012 and 2013 with a rate of 14.1% and 16.0% before ballooning up to 26% this year in AAA (in fairness, his first year at that level).
Since he's a shortstop, if he can put up his exact career numbers at the major league level, get a little better on the bases, and play above average defense he could conceivably grab the SS position on the team for the foreseeable future. That .274 average would have been 6th among all big league shortstops last year, while a .318 OBP would have been 7th and the .393 SLG 8th and his .711 OPS would have been 6th. Remember, the bar of shortstop offense is quite low outside of the freaks, so Santana's numbers, despite his lack of walks and power (just 25 career home runs, not a ton of extra base hits though he could be a 20 double/10 triple guy if everything breaks right), would make him a top 10 offensive shortstop. The steals are intriguing too, given that just 6 shortstops stole 20+ bases last season (Santana had 30 in 2013 at AA ball). It may be asking a lot, but looking at the numbers it's not out of the realm of possibility.
More important, however, is if he can play defense at a high level. His career fielding percentage at shortstop in the minors is .932, which is really, really bad. He was at .918 this season when he was called up, and even his best seasons were around .940-.950 which is still really, really bad. Like, dead last in the league bad. His range factor per game is 4.01, and as unreliable as that metric is (it's just assists+putouts / games) it's all we have for the minors. I couldn't find any leaderboards for it, but just checking a guy with range (Florimon, 4.63) and a guy without (Jhonny Peralta, 4.33) that number doesn't inspire confidence either.
That said, he's definitely a guy to keep a close watch on. The fielding could still develop and he's at least intriguing enough with his bat that it's worth giving him time. I wouldn't be against just handing him the starting job and pretty much letting him run with it for the year. If he can field and hit at the big league level the Twins may finally have a real shortstop.
John Sickels from minorleagueball.com ranked him the Twins' #15 prospect, Baseball America ranked him ninth, and Aaron Gleeman put him at #14. In short, he's a possible "shortstop of the future" and somehow we should be paying very close attention to and pulling for as hard as you can pull. If you click on that Baseball America link you can see his ranking within the organization the last four years has gone 25-20-11-9, so he's been improving and moving in the right direction. Sickels had estimated he'd be up late 2014, so he's a little bit ahead of schedule. But I'm getting ahead of myself. We should look at a little background.
Santana was signed out of the Dominican by the Twins as a 17-year old and who has had a rather rapid rise to AAA, playing at a below average age for the league at each stop. His career slash line is .274/.318/.393, which means he walks little and doesn't have much power - then again as a shortstop you don't necessarily need those things to be effective. He has some speed with 117 career minor league steals with a decent success rate of 69%, and although he strikes out a lot (career 18.5%) he had improved in 2012 and 2013 with a rate of 14.1% and 16.0% before ballooning up to 26% this year in AAA (in fairness, his first year at that level).
Since he's a shortstop, if he can put up his exact career numbers at the major league level, get a little better on the bases, and play above average defense he could conceivably grab the SS position on the team for the foreseeable future. That .274 average would have been 6th among all big league shortstops last year, while a .318 OBP would have been 7th and the .393 SLG 8th and his .711 OPS would have been 6th. Remember, the bar of shortstop offense is quite low outside of the freaks, so Santana's numbers, despite his lack of walks and power (just 25 career home runs, not a ton of extra base hits though he could be a 20 double/10 triple guy if everything breaks right), would make him a top 10 offensive shortstop. The steals are intriguing too, given that just 6 shortstops stole 20+ bases last season (Santana had 30 in 2013 at AA ball). It may be asking a lot, but looking at the numbers it's not out of the realm of possibility.
More important, however, is if he can play defense at a high level. His career fielding percentage at shortstop in the minors is .932, which is really, really bad. He was at .918 this season when he was called up, and even his best seasons were around .940-.950 which is still really, really bad. Like, dead last in the league bad. His range factor per game is 4.01, and as unreliable as that metric is (it's just assists+putouts / games) it's all we have for the minors. I couldn't find any leaderboards for it, but just checking a guy with range (Florimon, 4.63) and a guy without (Jhonny Peralta, 4.33) that number doesn't inspire confidence either.
That said, he's definitely a guy to keep a close watch on. The fielding could still develop and he's at least intriguing enough with his bat that it's worth giving him time. I wouldn't be against just handing him the starting job and pretty much letting him run with it for the year. If he can field and hit at the big league level the Twins may finally have a real shortstop.
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