It's the middle of winter, I have a billion days off, and there's lots going on that I haven't gotten to. So here's some of that.
- First off, the Torii Hunter signing. Ugh. Hate it. Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons. So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay! I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks. And they're going to suck this year. The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.
A bridge to 2016 you say? No. He's not good anymore. He's just not. He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it. He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope. Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are. Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value. Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster. Look at the outfielders. There are no words. Just horrible.
Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt. The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought. Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine. I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays). I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series. I don't want to be patient any more. Let's just move along.
- More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal. I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything. The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).
Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog. That's the hope anyway. Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia. That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching. Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.
- The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal. Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous. Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck. I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price. Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?
Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke. His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year. That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note: I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million. If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive. Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced. I'm hoping for Hughes.
- Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves. Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him. Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck. He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on. As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves. Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago. Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings. Hopefully he does well.
- Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time. They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks. Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away). They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation. Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.
Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways. Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more. Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic. Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career. I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.
This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender. They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore. If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH. It's a fun time to be a Padre fan. I hate them.
- Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky? My goodness they just overwhelm teams. The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes. And everyone is buying into the concept. I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.
Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night. The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville. Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game. Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday). Depressing? Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.
- Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10. That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season. I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's. These are all horrible, horrible losses. These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets. Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).
I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss. Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well. Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing. As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.
- Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.
Showing posts with label Matt Kemp. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Kemp. Show all posts
Monday, December 22, 2014
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Week in Review - 4/16/2011
Feels like I haven't done one of these in a while, but in honor of baseball really getting going I figure I probably should. But since I also didn't get started on this until 8pm on Sunday night, let's cut the chit-chat and just get down to business. This isn't some romantic vacation on an island in some kind of awesome sweetwith rose petals and a jacuzzi with Luther Van Dross playing in the background, sweetheart.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Josh Willingham. There are actually more positive Twins' things I could report on that I would have expected given that the team is 2-7 right now, but the #1 is clearly Willingham (let's not call him Willie, ok, it's super more annoying than any of the other -y nicknames) smacking the ball all over everywhere. He leads the AL in home runs with four and has a hit in every single game this year and he's not getting lucky either - he's crushing the ball. He leads the AL in OBP, slugging, and OPS. It's at the point now where he hasn't hit a homer in the last three games and I'm wondering what's wrong. With his bat humming, Denard Span with three multi-hit games already, and Liam Hendriks looking surprisingly feisty there are some decent signs of life here. None of it will matter if Mauer and Morneau don't start hitting, the bullpen continues to refuse to get anybody out, and the starting pitching is mostly awful, but I'm looking for anything to latch on to here. Plus, as a point in his favor, Mrs. W has quite the raging lady boner for Mr. Willingham, so that's a point in his favor.
2. Matt Kemp. So much for all that "slumping the year after a contract year" nonsense. He had a career year last year, batting .324 and coming one home run shy of notching a 40-40 year and then signed a nice fat 8-year deal that is suddenly looking like it might be a bargain for LA. Kemp currently leads the majors in batting average (.487), OBP (.523), slugging (1.023), OPS (1.548), home runs (6), RBI (16), runs (13), and hits (19). He has one fewer home run than Justin Morneau has hits, with Mauer having just two more. I don't know if he's back with Aaliyah or not back with Aaliyah or dating Bobby Brown or whatever, but it's doesn't really matter - I think Matt Kemp is officially the best player in baseball, other than Clete Thomas of course.
3. Barry Zito. What' more unexpected than Zito's complete game shutout in his first start this year? How about him following that up with another quality start and now sits with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP. The change? He's abandoned his 84mph fastball, throwing only about a third of the time compared to over 50% most of his career, and starting throwing a slider with regularity. Because he still has an 84mph fastball I doubt he can keep this up, particularly once players figure out that slider, but a starting rotation of Lincecum-Cain (1-hitter this week)-Bumgarner-Vogelsong-Zito would damn hard to touch. If, you know, Lincecum didn't completely suck now - more on that later.
4. UCLA Bruins. So I guess all the "UCLA won't be able to recruit anymore after that story on Howland/Reeves Nelson" is just so much bullshit, because they certainly didn't have any trouble this signing period. The Bruins grabbed Shabazz Muhammad, the #1 recruit in the country according to Rivals and #2 according to ESPN, who now joins Kyle Anderson (#3/#5) and Jordan Adams (#62/#41) in giving UCLA ESPN's #3 class in the country, which would be #2 if Nerlens Noel had picked anywhere other than Kentucky. Even more interesting, big man Tony Parker (#27/#26) is still out there and won't make his decision known until Friday, but it's thought to be down to UCLA (Tony's choice) or Georgia (Mom's choice) with Duke, Ohio State, and Kansas still officially in the mix. If Parker picks UCLA the Bruins likely become the #1 class in the country and vault back into a national power. So nice try Reeves, but you can't bring down a juggernaut. Unless you're in a snow speeder and you use your tow cable, but even then you probably lose your co-pilot. Poor Dak. My favorite part of the story though is that Muhammad's sister, Asia, is a pro on the women's tennis tour. She's ranked #386 on the tour with career earnings of $80k, yet she has a shoe deal with Adidas. Adidas, who sponsors UCLA hoops. Funny world, eh?
5. Chip Armelin. He wasn't awesome nor did he suck this week, but I need a spot to write about him so I'm sticking him here, seeing as how he's transferring and everything. I've always liked Chip and thought his instant offense off the bench was important, as well as the fact that out of everybody on the team he seemed to be the only one who had confidence in his own offensive game and was willing to look for his own shot (although Coleman and Dre Hollins got there in the end). In a normal offseason I would be really bummed about losing him, but if the choice is Armelin or Mbakwe you go Mbakwe every single time. The reality was with Mbakwe back and Rodney not doing anything stupid you had a scholarship problem and somebody was going to have to leave. There were 3 choices who wouldn't majorly kill the team - Armelin, Ahanmisi, and Ingram. Because Ingram was going to be a senior and it's likely not many D-I schools would take Ahanmisi (or Ingram for that matter) I had always anticipated Armelin would be gone, and it sucks but was inevitable. I wish him nothing but luck, and I fully expect him to end up averaging 15+ per game for somebody. Seems like in these cases the player always ends up back in his home state and there's no shortage of schools in Louisiana. So whoever - La Tech, Tulane, or even somewhere else like Texas or Arkansas or somewhere in that vicinity (my prediction) they're getting a good one. I'll definitely miss that crazy ass lefty jumper no matter how much or little space he had to get it off, and there was nobody who was less shy about taking a heat check. Godspeed, Chipper. Godspeed.
WHO SUCKED
1. Matt Capps. Thanks to Snacks for point this out to me, but when Cappsy tried like to hell to blow that save on Thursday against the Angels (you know, when the Angels went single-single-single to start the inning but came up one inning short) do you realize out of 23 pitches he threw 21 of them were fastballs? And, as we know, this isn't Jonathan Papelbon or Aroldis Chapman throwing smoke, it's Matt effing Capps and his 92 mph noodle-arm heater. He's always been over-reliant on that mediocre fastball, but most years he's thrown it around 75% of the time and this year he's at 83%, which isn't good considering he's about 2mph slower than he was in his "glory" days with the Pirates. The best part? As his fastball has gotten slower his change-up has gotten faster and there is now just a 5mph gap between the two (where it should be about 10). The worst part? I can't think of a single reliever on the Twins' roster I'd trust more than Capps, because for all p=Twins, trust=null. Ha ha, nerd talk.
2. Yeonis Cespedes. If you pay too much attention to stuff like this, you remember people talking about the A's could/should start Cespedes in the minors because the level of competition in his Cuban league was more like double A here and also because Oakland sucks and weren't going to be competing for anything except next year's number 1 pick. Well the A's said fuck that noise and threw him into the starting lineup where he started out with a bang, hitting 3 homers in his first four games. Since then he's gone 3-20 and struck out eight times (and has now struck out in every game but one with 6 multi-K games). Now, he can still crush (of his seven hits, five of them are for extra-bases) and he has a good eye for the zone (4 walks this year - not great but not bad) so he'll probably end up being a solid player, and that's all I can say because I haven't even come close to watching Oakland this year, except for when I almost got up for those games in Japan but then didn't.
3. Tim Lincecum. I think it's like super possible Wiley Wiggins (aka Mitch Kramer) finally did the thing where he kills the real Tim Lincecum and then takes over his body and his life and bangs his wife and spends his money and smokes his dope and all, and I say that because maybe the most unhittable pitcher in baseball over the last several seasons has now gotten lit up by Arizona and Colorado and now has the highest ERA in the majors (12.91) and a sky high WHIP (2.22), which sounds more Wiley Wiggins-y than Lincecum-y. Plus I also say that because if I was Wiley Wiggins that's exactly what I would do.
4. Charlotte Bobcats. I have no idea how I didn't know this already, but Charlotte is like, historically bad. They have seven wins this year. Seven! And they won their first game of the year, so they've won six since December. They're currently in the midst of a 16-game losing streak, and it's not even their first 16-game losing streak this year. Their most recent loss came on Sunday, 94-82 to the Celtics in a game where Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett all sat out, leaving both Brandon Bass and Avery Bradley to score 22 points. They haven't scored 100 or more in a non-OT game since March 17th, allowing their opponents to reach 100+ twelve times. D.J. White starts for them. Byron Mullens gets serious run. This could pretty much go on forever. They're like, the Minnesota Twins of the NBA.
5. Justin Smoak. Sigh. Come on dude, you're killing me. I've always had a crush on Smoak, as evidenced by the six entries (now 7) on this blog that have his name as a label despite him having a pretty non-descript career thus far and not being a Twin nor being in their division, but seriously dude WTF? He's awful. He's just awful. In four partial seasons he's never hit better than .239, and yes batting average isn't the end-all-be-all but he's also never OBP'd better than .323 or slugged better than .407, so he can't hit for power or average and doesn't walk - basically the opposite of his minor league career. This year might be the worst, as so far he's hitting at Puntonian levels with an average under .200, an OBP under .250, and a slugging percentage under .300 - for reals. Ouch. He's still young and he might end up ok, but at this point I dropped in our fantasy league for Daniel Murphy. Daniel effing Murphy. Or maybe David. The one who plays for the Mets. Gross.
One other thing is that the wife and I rewatched Malibu Shark Attack this weekend and it reminded me how much fun it is/was to watch crappy shark movies and blog about them, and I haven't done that in forever. So I'm going to try to do it soon. Stay tuned.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Josh Willingham. There are actually more positive Twins' things I could report on that I would have expected given that the team is 2-7 right now, but the #1 is clearly Willingham (let's not call him Willie, ok, it's super more annoying than any of the other -y nicknames) smacking the ball all over everywhere. He leads the AL in home runs with four and has a hit in every single game this year and he's not getting lucky either - he's crushing the ball. He leads the AL in OBP, slugging, and OPS. It's at the point now where he hasn't hit a homer in the last three games and I'm wondering what's wrong. With his bat humming, Denard Span with three multi-hit games already, and Liam Hendriks looking surprisingly feisty there are some decent signs of life here. None of it will matter if Mauer and Morneau don't start hitting, the bullpen continues to refuse to get anybody out, and the starting pitching is mostly awful, but I'm looking for anything to latch on to here. Plus, as a point in his favor, Mrs. W has quite the raging lady boner for Mr. Willingham, so that's a point in his favor.
2. Matt Kemp. So much for all that "slumping the year after a contract year" nonsense. He had a career year last year, batting .324 and coming one home run shy of notching a 40-40 year and then signed a nice fat 8-year deal that is suddenly looking like it might be a bargain for LA. Kemp currently leads the majors in batting average (.487), OBP (.523), slugging (1.023), OPS (1.548), home runs (6), RBI (16), runs (13), and hits (19). He has one fewer home run than Justin Morneau has hits, with Mauer having just two more. I don't know if he's back with Aaliyah or not back with Aaliyah or dating Bobby Brown or whatever, but it's doesn't really matter - I think Matt Kemp is officially the best player in baseball, other than Clete Thomas of course.
3. Barry Zito. What' more unexpected than Zito's complete game shutout in his first start this year? How about him following that up with another quality start and now sits with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP. The change? He's abandoned his 84mph fastball, throwing only about a third of the time compared to over 50% most of his career, and starting throwing a slider with regularity. Because he still has an 84mph fastball I doubt he can keep this up, particularly once players figure out that slider, but a starting rotation of Lincecum-Cain (1-hitter this week)-Bumgarner-Vogelsong-Zito would damn hard to touch. If, you know, Lincecum didn't completely suck now - more on that later.
4. UCLA Bruins. So I guess all the "UCLA won't be able to recruit anymore after that story on Howland/Reeves Nelson" is just so much bullshit, because they certainly didn't have any trouble this signing period. The Bruins grabbed Shabazz Muhammad, the #1 recruit in the country according to Rivals and #2 according to ESPN, who now joins Kyle Anderson (#3/#5) and Jordan Adams (#62/#41) in giving UCLA ESPN's #3 class in the country, which would be #2 if Nerlens Noel had picked anywhere other than Kentucky. Even more interesting, big man Tony Parker (#27/#26) is still out there and won't make his decision known until Friday, but it's thought to be down to UCLA (Tony's choice) or Georgia (Mom's choice) with Duke, Ohio State, and Kansas still officially in the mix. If Parker picks UCLA the Bruins likely become the #1 class in the country and vault back into a national power. So nice try Reeves, but you can't bring down a juggernaut. Unless you're in a snow speeder and you use your tow cable, but even then you probably lose your co-pilot. Poor Dak. My favorite part of the story though is that Muhammad's sister, Asia, is a pro on the women's tennis tour. She's ranked #386 on the tour with career earnings of $80k, yet she has a shoe deal with Adidas. Adidas, who sponsors UCLA hoops. Funny world, eh?
5. Chip Armelin. He wasn't awesome nor did he suck this week, but I need a spot to write about him so I'm sticking him here, seeing as how he's transferring and everything. I've always liked Chip and thought his instant offense off the bench was important, as well as the fact that out of everybody on the team he seemed to be the only one who had confidence in his own offensive game and was willing to look for his own shot (although Coleman and Dre Hollins got there in the end). In a normal offseason I would be really bummed about losing him, but if the choice is Armelin or Mbakwe you go Mbakwe every single time. The reality was with Mbakwe back and Rodney not doing anything stupid you had a scholarship problem and somebody was going to have to leave. There were 3 choices who wouldn't majorly kill the team - Armelin, Ahanmisi, and Ingram. Because Ingram was going to be a senior and it's likely not many D-I schools would take Ahanmisi (or Ingram for that matter) I had always anticipated Armelin would be gone, and it sucks but was inevitable. I wish him nothing but luck, and I fully expect him to end up averaging 15+ per game for somebody. Seems like in these cases the player always ends up back in his home state and there's no shortage of schools in Louisiana. So whoever - La Tech, Tulane, or even somewhere else like Texas or Arkansas or somewhere in that vicinity (my prediction) they're getting a good one. I'll definitely miss that crazy ass lefty jumper no matter how much or little space he had to get it off, and there was nobody who was less shy about taking a heat check. Godspeed, Chipper. Godspeed.
WHO SUCKED
1. Matt Capps. Thanks to Snacks for point this out to me, but when Cappsy tried like to hell to blow that save on Thursday against the Angels (you know, when the Angels went single-single-single to start the inning but came up one inning short) do you realize out of 23 pitches he threw 21 of them were fastballs? And, as we know, this isn't Jonathan Papelbon or Aroldis Chapman throwing smoke, it's Matt effing Capps and his 92 mph noodle-arm heater. He's always been over-reliant on that mediocre fastball, but most years he's thrown it around 75% of the time and this year he's at 83%, which isn't good considering he's about 2mph slower than he was in his "glory" days with the Pirates. The best part? As his fastball has gotten slower his change-up has gotten faster and there is now just a 5mph gap between the two (where it should be about 10). The worst part? I can't think of a single reliever on the Twins' roster I'd trust more than Capps, because for all p=Twins, trust=null. Ha ha, nerd talk.
2. Yeonis Cespedes. If you pay too much attention to stuff like this, you remember people talking about the A's could/should start Cespedes in the minors because the level of competition in his Cuban league was more like double A here and also because Oakland sucks and weren't going to be competing for anything except next year's number 1 pick. Well the A's said fuck that noise and threw him into the starting lineup where he started out with a bang, hitting 3 homers in his first four games. Since then he's gone 3-20 and struck out eight times (and has now struck out in every game but one with 6 multi-K games). Now, he can still crush (of his seven hits, five of them are for extra-bases) and he has a good eye for the zone (4 walks this year - not great but not bad) so he'll probably end up being a solid player, and that's all I can say because I haven't even come close to watching Oakland this year, except for when I almost got up for those games in Japan but then didn't.
3. Tim Lincecum. I think it's like super possible Wiley Wiggins (aka Mitch Kramer) finally did the thing where he kills the real Tim Lincecum and then takes over his body and his life and bangs his wife and spends his money and smokes his dope and all, and I say that because maybe the most unhittable pitcher in baseball over the last several seasons has now gotten lit up by Arizona and Colorado and now has the highest ERA in the majors (12.91) and a sky high WHIP (2.22), which sounds more Wiley Wiggins-y than Lincecum-y. Plus I also say that because if I was Wiley Wiggins that's exactly what I would do.
4. Charlotte Bobcats. I have no idea how I didn't know this already, but Charlotte is like, historically bad. They have seven wins this year. Seven! And they won their first game of the year, so they've won six since December. They're currently in the midst of a 16-game losing streak, and it's not even their first 16-game losing streak this year. Their most recent loss came on Sunday, 94-82 to the Celtics in a game where Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett all sat out, leaving both Brandon Bass and Avery Bradley to score 22 points. They haven't scored 100 or more in a non-OT game since March 17th, allowing their opponents to reach 100+ twelve times. D.J. White starts for them. Byron Mullens gets serious run. This could pretty much go on forever. They're like, the Minnesota Twins of the NBA.
5. Justin Smoak. Sigh. Come on dude, you're killing me. I've always had a crush on Smoak, as evidenced by the six entries (now 7) on this blog that have his name as a label despite him having a pretty non-descript career thus far and not being a Twin nor being in their division, but seriously dude WTF? He's awful. He's just awful. In four partial seasons he's never hit better than .239, and yes batting average isn't the end-all-be-all but he's also never OBP'd better than .323 or slugged better than .407, so he can't hit for power or average and doesn't walk - basically the opposite of his minor league career. This year might be the worst, as so far he's hitting at Puntonian levels with an average under .200, an OBP under .250, and a slugging percentage under .300 - for reals. Ouch. He's still young and he might end up ok, but at this point I dropped in our fantasy league for Daniel Murphy. Daniel effing Murphy. Or maybe David. The one who plays for the Mets. Gross.
One other thing is that the wife and I rewatched Malibu Shark Attack this weekend and it reminded me how much fun it is/was to watch crappy shark movies and blog about them, and I haven't done that in forever. So I'm going to try to do it soon. Stay tuned.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Weekend Review - 8/9/2010
Most important news from this weekend is that I beat New Super Mario Brothers on the Wii. What up, Bowser?
Jesus. Will you look at that monster. I'm like some kind of god damn hero.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Adam Wainwright. It's officially time to start recognizing Adam Wainwright as one of the best pitchers in baseball. I mean, I know people who know ball know how good he is, and he's pretty much universally hailed as having the best curveball in MLB, but you never really hear him mentioned when the best pitchers come up. Wainwright tossed a complete game, 2-hit shutout Friday night, bringing his season numbers to a 2.07 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, to go along with a 16-6 record. He's now second in ERA in the NL (behind Josh Johnson), second in WHIP (behind Mat Latos), second in Wins (behind Ubaldo), and third in strikeouts (behind Lincecum and Halladay). That is a hell of a season.
Maybe the most impressive thing though is in his six seasons so far, Wainwright has a career ERA of just 2.94. Only 6 pitchers since 1980 have made at least 110 starts in their first six years and had an ERA of under 3.00: Dwight Gooden, Orel Hershiser, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Lincecum, Pedro Martinez, and Wainwright. Not bad at all.
2. Adam Dunn. This is exactly why I was praying the White Sox wouldn't get Dunn - he can destroy a ballgame all by himself. Friday night Dunn hit two 3-run homers off the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, one in the first and one in the third, to drive in all six National runs in a 6-3 win (they walked him in two of last three PAs - I bet you can guess what the outcome was in the other one - a perfect 3-true outcomes nigiht.) Remember in game 163 two years ago, when you just knew Thome was going to be the guy who broke your heart? That's what Dunn would have been on Chicago, they would have been half defeated before the game even started just knowing he was there. Or at least I would have been.
3. J.P. Arencibia. With Matt Wieters currently worse than Drew Butera and Carlos Santana now out of the season I need a new young catcher to fixate on. Oh, hello, Jonathan Paul Arencibia (I have to admit, I thought that J.P. was going to stand for something a lot cooler and ethnic-y. This is just like finding out A.C. stood for Albert Clifford). Hell of a debut for the highly touted rook, going 4-5 with 2 home runs and a double on Saturday. Then, in a totally logical move, they sat him on Sunday for Jose Molina, who is 35 years old and has solidly proven himself to be mediocre in every way. Leave it to the Canadians to eff up a good thing. No wonder Chris Bosh left.
4. Brandon Morrow. I don't think anybody ever doubted Morrow's talent. He was a monster prospect for Seattle a few years ago, but was never able to put it together at the big league level. They tried him as a starter, and he really struggled with his control (66 ks and 50 walks in 63 innings) as a rookie. So they moved him to the pen and tried to make him their closer which went ok, and then moved him back to starter where his control fell apart again (63 k/44 bb in 69 innings), finally giving up and sending him to Toronto for Brandon League and a minor leaguer.
He finally put it all together for the Jays on Sunday, throwing 8 2/3 innings before allowing a hit, finishing with a complete game1-hit shutout while striking out 17. According to Game Score, which I outlined in this post, he scored a 100 for the game, and ties it for the fourth best game in history behind Kerry Wood's 1-hit, 20-k masterpiece, a Nolan Ryan no-hitter with 16ks, and a Sandy Koufax no-no with 14 k's. That is pretty damn good. And since he threw 137 pitches, you can expect him to get shelled his next time out.
5. Jason Repko. Gotta say, I think I'm liking this guy. He only played in one game this weekend and went just 1-4, so perhaps this isn't the ideal weekend to highlight him, but I can't help it - I just recently decided I like him. He's now hitting .314/.386/.608 this season with three home runs in 51 at-bats. That slugging percentage, by the way, is higher every Twin on the roster except for Justin Morneau, and is just .010 behind the guy with the broken head.
Repko has some pedigree, too. He was a first round pick of the Dodgers way back in 1999, but injuries and a pull-dependent swing kept him buried in the minors until 2005. That year he got 301 PAs, but batted just .221/.281/.384, saw his PAs cut in half in 2006, and then missed all of 2007 with a torn hamstring suffered in a spring training collision with Rafael Furcal. In 2008 and 2009 he played again in AAA for the Dodgers, putting up a combined line of .281/.341/.459 with 28 homers in 231 games but never got the call up, and was then outright released by Los Angeles, and signed 6 days later by the Twins. He looks like a very promising fourth outfielder with some upside. Excellent pickup.
WHO SUCKED
1. Francisco Liriano. Double-U. Tee. Eff? This is not what is supposed to happen. Just as we're all happy and giddy and have boners because Baker and Slowey came to play, Franky - our hero, our light, our Obi-Wan, sucks against the triple-A team some call Cleveland. Ok, yes, I'll admit that a good chunk of the hits he allowed could have been outs if they hadn't been precisely placed, but it's still disappointing to watch that kind of outing from our ace. Go ahead and leave out the hits, but six walks in just 4 and 2/3 innings and a 61-48 strike-to-ball ratio isn't going to get it done. It's just one bad outing in what has been a brilliant season thus far, but that looked an awful lot like last year's Liriano. No thanks.
2. Tiger Woods. I know already mentioned his worst-ever round at Firestone on Thursday in an earlier post this week, but it's impossible to ignore that he followed that up with a 72, 75, and 77 over the weekend to finish a combined +18 for the tournament, landing him in 78th place out of 80 finishers. It was the worst tournament he's played in his career outside of the handful where he missed the cut, and the fact that it comes at Firestone, a course he has absolutely dominated in his career, should set off every warning siren that there is for him right now. If I was going to give Tiger advice, and I am, it would be to shut it down for the year. Skip the PGA since your game isn't in shape to contend anyway and go with whoever your current swing coach is and get this figured out, because we could be heading for David Duval or Joe Charboneau territory here.
3. Almost everyone else at the Bridgestone. Lest you think Tiger Woods was the only one who crashed and burned, I must point out that there was an unusually high amount of terrible golf from great players this weekend, especially since the Bridgestone is a World Golf Championship event (second tier to the majors). Woods' 77 wasn't the worst of the day because Phil Mickelson, who started the day in contention and had a chance to move from the #2 rated golfer to the #1 if he finished fourth or better, shot a 78. The #3 golfer in the world, Lee Westwood, who could also have moved to #1 in certain scenarios, shot 71-76 and then withdrew. And finally, the golfer who has overall played the best this year Ernie Els, started the day just two shots back and promptly shot 76 to drop all the way to 22nd. And all this on the same day when 31 golfers managed to shoot par or better. Weird stuff.
4. Chicago White Sox. Not that I don't like it, because I do and hope it continues, but you can't win a division, even a shitty one like the AL Central, if you're going to lose two of three to the Orioles. Their pitching is still retardedly good, with the O's only scoring 8 runs in the three games, but the Sox only scored 8 as well, and are now just a loss tonight away from coming into the big series against the Twins with the teams tied for first. It'll be Edwin Jackson vs. Brian Matusz tonight, so it will probably be a 10-8 game, and then it's showdown time. The pitching breaks out as: Freddy Garcia vs. Scott Baker, John Danks vs. whoever fills in for Kevin Slowey, and Gavin Floyd vs. Liriano. I would give the Twins a slight advantage in two of the three games, so it's very possible they leave Chicago in first place. Or the Sox sweep and we just shut it down.
5. Matt Kemp. I was watching some of the Dodger/Nationals game (I have no idea why) and saw Kemp strike out and heard the L.A. crowd boo. Knowing that in general Los Angeles fans are pretty laid back, I decided to look into why. Turns out that was his fourth strikeout of the game (in four at-bats), which made him 0-10 for the weekend. Truly sucktastic. But beyond that, his stats have completely fallen off quite a bit from last year when he finished 10th in the NL MVP voting. His average is down, his OBP is down, his slugging is down, and his strikeouts are up. His OPS+ has fallen from 125 to 109, which is almost exactly like going from Michael Cuddyer last year to Michael Cuddyer this year, except Kemp can run and can field. So the real lesson here is that we should all be booing Cuddy every time he's up.
By the way, I've officially talked myself into Chip Armelin, the newest Gopher hoopster, coming to a campus near you September 1. I put most of my thoughts in a post over the weekend, which you can either scroll down to read or if that's too much work just click here, but after meditating on this for a while I am getting a good feeling. He's a great athlete who can shoot and handle the ball - what's not to like? There are even explanations for why he wasn't recruited all that heavily (the football thing), and it's not like he was terrible - three time second-team All-State player and a McDonald's All-American Nominee (one of 30 in Louisiana, but still). I'm officially on the Chip Armelin bandwagon. Join me now, before everyone arrives. And let's hope this doesn't turn into Rico Tucker part II.
Stay tuned. I think you're going to get some Gopher stuff this week. No promises of course, but let's say 80% likely.
Jesus. Will you look at that monster. I'm like some kind of god damn hero.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Adam Wainwright. It's officially time to start recognizing Adam Wainwright as one of the best pitchers in baseball. I mean, I know people who know ball know how good he is, and he's pretty much universally hailed as having the best curveball in MLB, but you never really hear him mentioned when the best pitchers come up. Wainwright tossed a complete game, 2-hit shutout Friday night, bringing his season numbers to a 2.07 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, to go along with a 16-6 record. He's now second in ERA in the NL (behind Josh Johnson), second in WHIP (behind Mat Latos), second in Wins (behind Ubaldo), and third in strikeouts (behind Lincecum and Halladay). That is a hell of a season.
Maybe the most impressive thing though is in his six seasons so far, Wainwright has a career ERA of just 2.94. Only 6 pitchers since 1980 have made at least 110 starts in their first six years and had an ERA of under 3.00: Dwight Gooden, Orel Hershiser, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Lincecum, Pedro Martinez, and Wainwright. Not bad at all.
2. Adam Dunn. This is exactly why I was praying the White Sox wouldn't get Dunn - he can destroy a ballgame all by himself. Friday night Dunn hit two 3-run homers off the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, one in the first and one in the third, to drive in all six National runs in a 6-3 win (they walked him in two of last three PAs - I bet you can guess what the outcome was in the other one - a perfect 3-true outcomes nigiht.) Remember in game 163 two years ago, when you just knew Thome was going to be the guy who broke your heart? That's what Dunn would have been on Chicago, they would have been half defeated before the game even started just knowing he was there. Or at least I would have been.
3. J.P. Arencibia. With Matt Wieters currently worse than Drew Butera and Carlos Santana now out of the season I need a new young catcher to fixate on. Oh, hello, Jonathan Paul Arencibia (I have to admit, I thought that J.P. was going to stand for something a lot cooler and ethnic-y. This is just like finding out A.C. stood for Albert Clifford). Hell of a debut for the highly touted rook, going 4-5 with 2 home runs and a double on Saturday. Then, in a totally logical move, they sat him on Sunday for Jose Molina, who is 35 years old and has solidly proven himself to be mediocre in every way. Leave it to the Canadians to eff up a good thing. No wonder Chris Bosh left.
4. Brandon Morrow. I don't think anybody ever doubted Morrow's talent. He was a monster prospect for Seattle a few years ago, but was never able to put it together at the big league level. They tried him as a starter, and he really struggled with his control (66 ks and 50 walks in 63 innings) as a rookie. So they moved him to the pen and tried to make him their closer which went ok, and then moved him back to starter where his control fell apart again (63 k/44 bb in 69 innings), finally giving up and sending him to Toronto for Brandon League and a minor leaguer.
He finally put it all together for the Jays on Sunday, throwing 8 2/3 innings before allowing a hit, finishing with a complete game1-hit shutout while striking out 17. According to Game Score, which I outlined in this post, he scored a 100 for the game, and ties it for the fourth best game in history behind Kerry Wood's 1-hit, 20-k masterpiece, a Nolan Ryan no-hitter with 16ks, and a Sandy Koufax no-no with 14 k's. That is pretty damn good. And since he threw 137 pitches, you can expect him to get shelled his next time out.
5. Jason Repko. Gotta say, I think I'm liking this guy. He only played in one game this weekend and went just 1-4, so perhaps this isn't the ideal weekend to highlight him, but I can't help it - I just recently decided I like him. He's now hitting .314/.386/.608 this season with three home runs in 51 at-bats. That slugging percentage, by the way, is higher every Twin on the roster except for Justin Morneau, and is just .010 behind the guy with the broken head.
Repko has some pedigree, too. He was a first round pick of the Dodgers way back in 1999, but injuries and a pull-dependent swing kept him buried in the minors until 2005. That year he got 301 PAs, but batted just .221/.281/.384, saw his PAs cut in half in 2006, and then missed all of 2007 with a torn hamstring suffered in a spring training collision with Rafael Furcal. In 2008 and 2009 he played again in AAA for the Dodgers, putting up a combined line of .281/.341/.459 with 28 homers in 231 games but never got the call up, and was then outright released by Los Angeles, and signed 6 days later by the Twins. He looks like a very promising fourth outfielder with some upside. Excellent pickup.
WHO SUCKED
1. Francisco Liriano. Double-U. Tee. Eff? This is not what is supposed to happen. Just as we're all happy and giddy and have boners because Baker and Slowey came to play, Franky - our hero, our light, our Obi-Wan, sucks against the triple-A team some call Cleveland. Ok, yes, I'll admit that a good chunk of the hits he allowed could have been outs if they hadn't been precisely placed, but it's still disappointing to watch that kind of outing from our ace. Go ahead and leave out the hits, but six walks in just 4 and 2/3 innings and a 61-48 strike-to-ball ratio isn't going to get it done. It's just one bad outing in what has been a brilliant season thus far, but that looked an awful lot like last year's Liriano. No thanks.
2. Tiger Woods. I know already mentioned his worst-ever round at Firestone on Thursday in an earlier post this week, but it's impossible to ignore that he followed that up with a 72, 75, and 77 over the weekend to finish a combined +18 for the tournament, landing him in 78th place out of 80 finishers. It was the worst tournament he's played in his career outside of the handful where he missed the cut, and the fact that it comes at Firestone, a course he has absolutely dominated in his career, should set off every warning siren that there is for him right now. If I was going to give Tiger advice, and I am, it would be to shut it down for the year. Skip the PGA since your game isn't in shape to contend anyway and go with whoever your current swing coach is and get this figured out, because we could be heading for David Duval or Joe Charboneau territory here.
3. Almost everyone else at the Bridgestone. Lest you think Tiger Woods was the only one who crashed and burned, I must point out that there was an unusually high amount of terrible golf from great players this weekend, especially since the Bridgestone is a World Golf Championship event (second tier to the majors). Woods' 77 wasn't the worst of the day because Phil Mickelson, who started the day in contention and had a chance to move from the #2 rated golfer to the #1 if he finished fourth or better, shot a 78. The #3 golfer in the world, Lee Westwood, who could also have moved to #1 in certain scenarios, shot 71-76 and then withdrew. And finally, the golfer who has overall played the best this year Ernie Els, started the day just two shots back and promptly shot 76 to drop all the way to 22nd. And all this on the same day when 31 golfers managed to shoot par or better. Weird stuff.
4. Chicago White Sox. Not that I don't like it, because I do and hope it continues, but you can't win a division, even a shitty one like the AL Central, if you're going to lose two of three to the Orioles. Their pitching is still retardedly good, with the O's only scoring 8 runs in the three games, but the Sox only scored 8 as well, and are now just a loss tonight away from coming into the big series against the Twins with the teams tied for first. It'll be Edwin Jackson vs. Brian Matusz tonight, so it will probably be a 10-8 game, and then it's showdown time. The pitching breaks out as: Freddy Garcia vs. Scott Baker, John Danks vs. whoever fills in for Kevin Slowey, and Gavin Floyd vs. Liriano. I would give the Twins a slight advantage in two of the three games, so it's very possible they leave Chicago in first place. Or the Sox sweep and we just shut it down.
5. Matt Kemp. I was watching some of the Dodger/Nationals game (I have no idea why) and saw Kemp strike out and heard the L.A. crowd boo. Knowing that in general Los Angeles fans are pretty laid back, I decided to look into why. Turns out that was his fourth strikeout of the game (in four at-bats), which made him 0-10 for the weekend. Truly sucktastic. But beyond that, his stats have completely fallen off quite a bit from last year when he finished 10th in the NL MVP voting. His average is down, his OBP is down, his slugging is down, and his strikeouts are up. His OPS+ has fallen from 125 to 109, which is almost exactly like going from Michael Cuddyer last year to Michael Cuddyer this year, except Kemp can run and can field. So the real lesson here is that we should all be booing Cuddy every time he's up.
By the way, I've officially talked myself into Chip Armelin, the newest Gopher hoopster, coming to a campus near you September 1. I put most of my thoughts in a post over the weekend, which you can either scroll down to read or if that's too much work just click here, but after meditating on this for a while I am getting a good feeling. He's a great athlete who can shoot and handle the ball - what's not to like? There are even explanations for why he wasn't recruited all that heavily (the football thing), and it's not like he was terrible - three time second-team All-State player and a McDonald's All-American Nominee (one of 30 in Louisiana, but still). I'm officially on the Chip Armelin bandwagon. Join me now, before everyone arrives. And let's hope this doesn't turn into Rico Tucker part II.
Stay tuned. I think you're going to get some Gopher stuff this week. No promises of course, but let's say 80% likely.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
MLB Preview - National League
I'm trying not to think about how we're about to lose Tubby Smith, so instead I'll turn my attention elsewhere so I don't break down and cry. With just five days until opening day and the first day of being sick and tired of the Yankees/Sox media barrage it's time to roll out the baseball predictions. I'm breaking this into National League and American League posts, one today and one tomorrow, because I'm way too lazy to it all at once. I'm also starting with the National League - just to piss you off.
NL EAST
1. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES. Take the same team that won the Series in 2008 and finished runner-up in 2009 and add the best (possibly second best) pitcher in baseball. Yeah, I think they're going to be pretty good. Look for Hamels to regain his 2008 form and J.A. Happ to get even better in his second year and they're likely going to be the team with the most wins in baseball. I'm fully expecting Halladay to win 25 games.
2. ATLANTA BRAVES. They're getting a lot of preseason heat as a possible sleeper team, and it's not all that far-fetched. Tommy Hansen is a stud, and there's good pitching behind him in the rotation, especially if Tim Hudson is back to top-of-his-game form like all the preseason crap is saying. And this Jason Heyward hype has officially surpassed Wieters-levels. If he isn't built like Deebo while hitting like Roy Hobbs and running like Willie Mays Hayes I'm going to be disappointed.
3. FLORIDA MARLINS. Outisde of pimp-daddy Hanley and alleged NL Rookie-of-the-Year Chris Coghlan there are plenty of questions about the lineup, but that rotation should be pretty rock solid. At the very least Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are going to form a very nice 1-2 punch at the top. I'm very interested in seeing what Cameron Maybin can do with a full season of at-bats as well.
4. NEW YORK METS. I know you're thinking it's crazy to have the Mets in fourth, but go ahead and check out their team for a minute and then tell me they're good. Wright has regressed, Reyes has some mystery ailment, their right-fielder was basically cut by Atlanta, and I've never even heard of their projected starting catcher. Perhaps most damning of all, however, is that they STILL start Luis Castillo and bat him second. Oof. And that rotation is a nightmare behind Johan. Oh, by the way, Johan. How many postseason games have you played in since you forced the Twins to trade you?
5. WASHINGTON NATIONALS. At least they have Strasburg so there's a reason to watch beyond watching Adam Dunn put everything he's got into every swing. What's that? They're starting him in the minors despite some truly sick Spring stats? I hope it's worth the minimal savings you'll get by keeping his clock from running right away. Seriously, who runs this team, Brad Childress?
NL CENTRAL
1. ST LOUIS CARDINALS. Although the Phillies should win more games, the Cards will probably win their division by the widest margin because after them this whole division should be thrown in a garbage dumpster. It's basically Pujols and friends going up against five teams of Cleveland Indians. I suppose I should predict something for this team, so I predict that Brad Penny will have one of his best ever years. I also predict Ryan Franklin loses his closer job to Jason Motte.
2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS. All because Carlos Gomez came aboard? Maybe. We still have to see if he's continued to learn plate patience (you might not have noticed, but he was better last year). The Brewers have the best lineup of the rest of the central teams and will be getting Rickie Weeks back. There's a lot to like about the lineup here, and Gallardo gets any help behind him they could be in line for a Wild Card spot. Ugliest part? They still start Jeff Suppan, and LaTroy Hawkins is their top set-up guy. Ouch.
3. CINCINNATI REDS. I'm giving a lot of credit to some young guys here, but I'm a big believer in most of these guys. Injuries have derailed Homer Bailey before, but he finally hit his stride late last season and him and Cueto join veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo to give Cincy's rotation a nice mix of young and old. The lineup will need guys like Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson to live up to their potential, but I say they do and make the Reds a dangerous team.
4. CHICAGO CUBS. Aramis is a walking injury, Soriano looks like he's basically done, their big free-agent signing was Marlon freaking Byrd, and their middle infield consists of that wiener Ryan Theriot and a cast-off from the Rockies. Yuck. The rotation is mostly brutal as well, and you can go ahead and pencil in Carlos Marmol for a complete meltdown as a closer right about mid-June. Yeah, I'm not a big fan of the Cubbies this year.
5. HOUSTON ASTROS. This is the most boringest team in all of baseball. Their big free-agent splash was signing Brandon Lyon. Yawn. Also, nice shitty signing, that guy sucks. They should have two mid-teen game winners in Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, assuming Lyon doesn't blow every game.
6. PITTSBURGH PIRATES. I really didn't want to pick Pittsburgh to finish last because I'm starting to really like what their front office is doing (it's a new front office the last year or two), but I just can't quite yet. They're moving in the right direction. If Lastings Milledge has finally figured it out he and Andrew McCutchen make up a nice start to the outfield, and when Jose Tabata finally gets up that's going to be a very fast outfield.
NL WEST
1. COLORADO ROCKIES. If Chris Iannetta and Ian Stewart can raise their averages even a little this going to be a dangerous team because the lineup is loaded, and even if they don't they are still solid players because they walk a lot. A good but not great rotation should be enough to win the West, assuming Franklin Morales doesn't blow it while he fills in for Huston Street. Troy Tulowitzki is a complete and total stud, and if Albert Pujols didn't exist he'd have a shot at an MVP.
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS. James Loney is kind of a lame-o and Blake DeWitt hasn't worked out, but the Dodgers hit home runs with Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, who are a hell of a 1-2 punch. Kemp looks like a good bet to go 30-30 and Ethier has the look of a career professional hitter. The rotation is pretty thin, but Clay Kershaw at the front is a sure-fire Cy Young candidate, and will probably be for years to come.
3. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS. They'd be a bit easier to place if I knkew what was going on with Brandon Webb, but in reality they probably couldn't be better than the teams above them and definitely couldn't be worse than the team's below them. Like Kemp, Justin Upton has a shot at 30-30 this year, and is just an incredible hitter for his age - kind of like what everybody wanted Delmon Young to be just shoot me right in the face.
4. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS. They get to finish fourth based solely on their pitching staff, because Lincecum and Cain are studs, Baumgartner and Jonathan Sanchez are potential studs, and everybody in the lineup sucks other than Pablo Sandoval (aka the black Billy Butler) and possibly Nate Schierholtz. They also have Buster Posey, who has a super sweet name is is supposed to be a pretty big stud with the stick. He better be, because their isn't much of a lineup here and there isn't much coming soon.
5. SAN DIEGO PADRES. Holy god this lineup is depressing. How depressing? Kevin Kouzmanoff hits clean-up, David Eckstein hits in the upper half, and I haven't come even close to hearing of their 7th or 8th batter. The rotation isn't that much better, but at least there's some hope with guys like Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, and star of "The Last Best League" Tim Stauffer. The bullpen is decent, but they'd really be better served trading Heath Bell for prospects (as well as Adrian Gonzalez) because they aren't going anywhere as currently constructed.
NL Wild Card - L.A. Dodgers
NL Pennant - Philadelphia Phillies
MVP - Albert Pujols (runner up = Kemp)
CY YOUNG - Roy Halladay (runner up = Lincecum)
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Jesus Heyward (runner up = Posey)
AL preview should be coming tomorrow, assuming Tubby doesn't leave. I mean by tomorrow, because I know he's leaving I just don't know when.
Suck.
NL EAST
1. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES. Take the same team that won the Series in 2008 and finished runner-up in 2009 and add the best (possibly second best) pitcher in baseball. Yeah, I think they're going to be pretty good. Look for Hamels to regain his 2008 form and J.A. Happ to get even better in his second year and they're likely going to be the team with the most wins in baseball. I'm fully expecting Halladay to win 25 games.
2. ATLANTA BRAVES. They're getting a lot of preseason heat as a possible sleeper team, and it's not all that far-fetched. Tommy Hansen is a stud, and there's good pitching behind him in the rotation, especially if Tim Hudson is back to top-of-his-game form like all the preseason crap is saying. And this Jason Heyward hype has officially surpassed Wieters-levels. If he isn't built like Deebo while hitting like Roy Hobbs and running like Willie Mays Hayes I'm going to be disappointed.
3. FLORIDA MARLINS. Outisde of pimp-daddy Hanley and alleged NL Rookie-of-the-Year Chris Coghlan there are plenty of questions about the lineup, but that rotation should be pretty rock solid. At the very least Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are going to form a very nice 1-2 punch at the top. I'm very interested in seeing what Cameron Maybin can do with a full season of at-bats as well.
4. NEW YORK METS. I know you're thinking it's crazy to have the Mets in fourth, but go ahead and check out their team for a minute and then tell me they're good. Wright has regressed, Reyes has some mystery ailment, their right-fielder was basically cut by Atlanta, and I've never even heard of their projected starting catcher. Perhaps most damning of all, however, is that they STILL start Luis Castillo and bat him second. Oof. And that rotation is a nightmare behind Johan. Oh, by the way, Johan. How many postseason games have you played in since you forced the Twins to trade you?
5. WASHINGTON NATIONALS. At least they have Strasburg so there's a reason to watch beyond watching Adam Dunn put everything he's got into every swing. What's that? They're starting him in the minors despite some truly sick Spring stats? I hope it's worth the minimal savings you'll get by keeping his clock from running right away. Seriously, who runs this team, Brad Childress?
NL CENTRAL
1. ST LOUIS CARDINALS. Although the Phillies should win more games, the Cards will probably win their division by the widest margin because after them this whole division should be thrown in a garbage dumpster. It's basically Pujols and friends going up against five teams of Cleveland Indians. I suppose I should predict something for this team, so I predict that Brad Penny will have one of his best ever years. I also predict Ryan Franklin loses his closer job to Jason Motte.
2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS. All because Carlos Gomez came aboard? Maybe. We still have to see if he's continued to learn plate patience (you might not have noticed, but he was better last year). The Brewers have the best lineup of the rest of the central teams and will be getting Rickie Weeks back. There's a lot to like about the lineup here, and Gallardo gets any help behind him they could be in line for a Wild Card spot. Ugliest part? They still start Jeff Suppan, and LaTroy Hawkins is their top set-up guy. Ouch.
3. CINCINNATI REDS. I'm giving a lot of credit to some young guys here, but I'm a big believer in most of these guys. Injuries have derailed Homer Bailey before, but he finally hit his stride late last season and him and Cueto join veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo to give Cincy's rotation a nice mix of young and old. The lineup will need guys like Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson to live up to their potential, but I say they do and make the Reds a dangerous team.
4. CHICAGO CUBS. Aramis is a walking injury, Soriano looks like he's basically done, their big free-agent signing was Marlon freaking Byrd, and their middle infield consists of that wiener Ryan Theriot and a cast-off from the Rockies. Yuck. The rotation is mostly brutal as well, and you can go ahead and pencil in Carlos Marmol for a complete meltdown as a closer right about mid-June. Yeah, I'm not a big fan of the Cubbies this year.
5. HOUSTON ASTROS. This is the most boringest team in all of baseball. Their big free-agent splash was signing Brandon Lyon. Yawn. Also, nice shitty signing, that guy sucks. They should have two mid-teen game winners in Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, assuming Lyon doesn't blow every game.
6. PITTSBURGH PIRATES. I really didn't want to pick Pittsburgh to finish last because I'm starting to really like what their front office is doing (it's a new front office the last year or two), but I just can't quite yet. They're moving in the right direction. If Lastings Milledge has finally figured it out he and Andrew McCutchen make up a nice start to the outfield, and when Jose Tabata finally gets up that's going to be a very fast outfield.
NL WEST
1. COLORADO ROCKIES. If Chris Iannetta and Ian Stewart can raise their averages even a little this going to be a dangerous team because the lineup is loaded, and even if they don't they are still solid players because they walk a lot. A good but not great rotation should be enough to win the West, assuming Franklin Morales doesn't blow it while he fills in for Huston Street. Troy Tulowitzki is a complete and total stud, and if Albert Pujols didn't exist he'd have a shot at an MVP.
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS. James Loney is kind of a lame-o and Blake DeWitt hasn't worked out, but the Dodgers hit home runs with Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, who are a hell of a 1-2 punch. Kemp looks like a good bet to go 30-30 and Ethier has the look of a career professional hitter. The rotation is pretty thin, but Clay Kershaw at the front is a sure-fire Cy Young candidate, and will probably be for years to come.
3. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS. They'd be a bit easier to place if I knkew what was going on with Brandon Webb, but in reality they probably couldn't be better than the teams above them and definitely couldn't be worse than the team's below them. Like Kemp, Justin Upton has a shot at 30-30 this year, and is just an incredible hitter for his age - kind of like what everybody wanted Delmon Young to be just shoot me right in the face.
4. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS. They get to finish fourth based solely on their pitching staff, because Lincecum and Cain are studs, Baumgartner and Jonathan Sanchez are potential studs, and everybody in the lineup sucks other than Pablo Sandoval (aka the black Billy Butler) and possibly Nate Schierholtz. They also have Buster Posey, who has a super sweet name is is supposed to be a pretty big stud with the stick. He better be, because their isn't much of a lineup here and there isn't much coming soon.
5. SAN DIEGO PADRES. Holy god this lineup is depressing. How depressing? Kevin Kouzmanoff hits clean-up, David Eckstein hits in the upper half, and I haven't come even close to hearing of their 7th or 8th batter. The rotation isn't that much better, but at least there's some hope with guys like Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, and star of "The Last Best League" Tim Stauffer. The bullpen is decent, but they'd really be better served trading Heath Bell for prospects (as well as Adrian Gonzalez) because they aren't going anywhere as currently constructed.
NL Wild Card - L.A. Dodgers
NL Pennant - Philadelphia Phillies
MVP - Albert Pujols (runner up = Kemp)
CY YOUNG - Roy Halladay (runner up = Lincecum)
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Jesus Heyward (runner up = Posey)
AL preview should be coming tomorrow, assuming Tubby doesn't leave. I mean by tomorrow, because I know he's leaving I just don't know when.
Suck.
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