Gophers 76, Western Kentucky 54

And that folks is the best visiting team you'll see in the Barn this year prior to conference season.

1.  In case there was any question who the most valuable Gopher is, tonight should have cemented it.  No question it's the Honey Gopher, DeAndre Mathieu.  He was lackluster against UMD and so was the team, he was in foul trouble and struggled against Louisville and so did the team, and tonight he was awesome and so was the team.  He completely sets the tone on both sides of the ball.  His defense, both on and off ball, is just outstanding, and obviously watching him run the break is freaking enjoyable as all hell.  Tonight he even looked for his own shot from the perimeter and though he only hit one of three from behind the arc that's still a positive.  Don't forget he hit 49% from there last year in limited attempts.  If he can get to the point where opponents have to respect his deep jumper it should open up more opportunities to drive past them, and once he's on the drive he seems to have mastered the score or dish skill set.  Love this guy.  Plus I'm about 90% sure my dad called him DeAndre Mathews tonight, which just makes it all the better.

2.  Mo Walker was a completely different player in each half.  I give credit to my brother Snacks for pointing this out first, but Mo Walker, and whoever told him to, made a significant change at half time and it paid major dividends.  In the first half he was still in the mode he was against Louisville, where he'd get the ball on the block and make some fancy moves and shot fakes and stuff like that and it just wasn't falling.  At half time someone must have mentioned he was playing the Hilltoppers and not the Cardinals, because after the break when he got the ball on the block he just put his head down and overpowered his man for easy buckets.  He finished with 14 points and had an overall excellent game, but when he came out and scored with ease from the block on the first two Gopher possessions of the second half it really sent a message.  I still struggle at times thinking of him as a legitimate offensive weapon for some reason, but he's going to be a major force for this team as their only legit low post threat.  Love him too.

3.  The guy who sits in front of me has a giant head.  Seriously.  This guy must be close to 6-8 and his head is some kind of planetoid.  I'm not a tall guy, but I'm not a short guy either and the Williams Arena seats are set up so there shouldn't be a problem, but behind him I have to do that thing where depending on where the ball is I have to shift my head to see around his giant melon.  Honestly there's just no way this guy could walk into a normal store and buy a hat, they'd definitely have to special ordered.  It's the size of my TV.  I feel like if he head butted a car the car would blow up.  I'm going to have to do something about this.  Probably just complain all the time.  That still counts as something.

This is who I sit behind, without the sword.  Probably

4.  Though the offense was mostly humming pretty well, there were also some pretty bad possessions.  There was one really bad stretch, no surprise Mathieu wasn't on the floor, where a whole bunch of one-on-one ball was going on, leading to really bad long 2s early in the shot clock.  This went on for like three or four possessions and was just not good.  Carlos Morris is just a wild card with so much chucker in him yearning for freedom it's going to drive me crazy this year, and Dre Hollins really needs to ditch the step back 18-footer.  It worked out because after a TV timeout they ran some cool plays like three possessions in a row, including a neato one with a double screen with both a roller and a popper, where after the popper gets the ball if he doesn't have a shot he does a handoff and then immediately sets a ball screen that led to an open jumper for Morris and they scored on I think three straight possessions, but it's worth watching.  There were times last year Pitino let this kind of crap go on for too long without a timeout or any kind of change, so hopefully he's more on top of it this season.  He was tonight.

5.  Joey King's shot fake is still a thing of beauty.  He's easily the most polarizing player on the team in my own brain, at least until Morris takes over, but you have to give him credit for that shot fake of his.  He consistently gets his man in the air, but usually then can't really take advantage of it which kind of sums him up.  And man his ball-handling.  At one point WKU did their token press but someone managed to force King to be in charge of the ball and he desperately looked around for help, then tried to hand it off to a guard but it ended up on the floor and I can't remember who got it but I remember yelling "Joey no!" which I think I did eighty hundred times last year.  He does some really nice things, like the shot fake, and some really bad things as well.  Drives me crazy, but I think I'm glad they have him.

6.  Nate Mason rules.  Boy this kid does not look like a freshman out there.  He was the first player I saw when we got there late tonight (Mac's was slow.  Go there and get the blackened buffalo wings.  So good) and I was like, whoa he's bigger than I thought and then he drilled two threes.  He's confident in his game, he's already a plus defender, he can play either guard spot, and he looks like one of the better shooters on the team.  Ok so he has no lift on his three-point shot which could cause problems but neither do Dirk Nowitzki or Glen Rice which yeah as was pointed out to me they're way taller than him but whatever he'll be fine.  Josh Martin and Bakary Konate have the athleticism but still look really raw, but Mason is already a polished player.  Great get by Pitino, he's going to be special.

7.  This team is really fast.  I mean really fast.  It all starts with Mathieu of course who is one of the fastest players in the country, but at this point pretty much everyone on the team can get up and down quickly.  Hollins, Mason, Martin, Konate, Morris, and McNeil can all get out and run and excel in the open court.  Even Eliason and Walker have gotten themselves to the point where they don't hold the team up.  King does ok for himself too.  This is a very different team than we're used to, both because of personnel and coaching style, and they're going to be fun to watch and should score plenty of points.  It's going to be all about the defense to decide how good this team can be.  Hopefully the million cupcakes on the schedule can help them get that all straightened out, because the press seemed mostly ineffective last season except for a few spots.  The athleticism and speed this year will help.  I'm really interested to see what they do here.

8.  The mini-ball toss is no longer fair.  What was that?  I'm in row 15 so it's not like any of the cheerleaders can get a mini-ball to me anyway, but tonight when they did the ball toss they only threw to the student section.  You know what?  I want a ball.  My son wants a ball.  My daughter wants a ball.  At least let us dream it's possible.  The students don't need a ball anyway, and they already get to play all the fun games on the court like the run around and get dizzy and try to make a lay-up thing.  If you really want to help out the students throw them money or pizza or beer or something.  If they get a ball they'll probably just turn it into a bong anyway.  

9.  The WKU chuckers did not disappoint.  I would have liked to see a little more volume shooting, but I said the Hilltoppers had 3 chuckers and the three combined to shoot 5-21, 3-12 from three, and turned it over 14 times against 8 assists.  14 turnovers!  25% shooting!  They really came through.  It's too bad it was spread out among three players though.  Can you imagine they voltron formed one mega chucker and put up that line?  Simply outstanding.  Really if it wasn't for those two bench guys (and who doesn't enjoy a guy named Snipes sniping a handful of three-pointers) this game could have been a 40-point blowout because these three guys were awful.  And nobody else really did anything either.  Ladies and gentlemen, the best home non-conference opponent the Gophers will play this year!

10.  On to New York.  There are two horrible games coming up this week which I don't expect to write about at all, and then comes the one good stretch before conference play when the Gophers head to New York to play St. Johns and then either Georgia or Gonzaga, followed by a trip to Winston-Salem to play Wake Forest in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.  That should be a fun time, and since the Gophers basically own Madison Square Garden the tournament should be theirs for the taking.  Enjoy that stretch, since following that it's six straight games basically covering the entire month of December that are all terrible and the Gophers will be favored by 20+ in all of them.  Actually, they'll be favored by 20+ in maybe none of them because I think they're all in too terrible of conferences to even have lines offered.  Speaking of gambling, click on the banner above this post if you want to start a wagering account.  Mybookie.ag is a new site that's pretty slick and has really good bonuses.  It probably sounds like they're paying me to say this but they're not.  They did pay me to put that banner up though, but I'm not shilling here (god forbid I'd be a Schilling), I'm serious.

Overall, a pretty good win.  Western Kentucky isn't anything special, but they weren't supposed to be some pushover either.  The Gophers were favored by twelve and won by 22.  That's a nice outing.  Now just nobody get hurt before the NYC trip.  Beat Zaga.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Western Kentucky

For what it's worth, Western Kentucky is the Gophers biggest test at home in the non-conference this season.  So I guess I'll write a preview.  For what it's not worth, the Gophers are favored by 12.5.  This is not exactly a killer slate here.  And despite that spread, this team does have the potential to score an upset.  I'll explain why.

The two best ways to pull of an upset are to slow the game way down and limit the possessions, or to shoot and make an assload of three pointers.  Well, the Hilltoppers aren't really a slow it down team and the Gophers will probably speed them up so that's out, but they do shoot an assload of threes, so that's still in play.  As a matter of fact WKU had three guys shoot over 100 treys last season, and overall 39.7% of their FG attempts were from behind the 3-point line, a number that ranked 39th in the country.  That's about as often as mad bombers Michigan last season, though far less successfully.  

Two of those three gunslingers are back in guards Chris Harrison-Docks (9.9ppg, 36% from three) and T.J. Price (15.5ppg, 36% from three).  They're joined by a third guard in the starting lineup in Trency Jackson, who isn't shy from 3 either (10.2ppg, 32% on 62 three-point attempts) and he'll get more time as their third guard with the departure of that other 3-point shooter guy. Since the Gophers have shown the ability to get torched from three before, this does worry me.  

Of course, there is a dark side to these guards besides the possibility of them combining to shoot 2-18 from 3 in a game.  Check these numbers (per game last year):  Harrison-Docks 2.2 assists, 2.3 turnovers.  Price 1.9 assists, 2.1 turnovers.  Jackson 1.8 assists, 1.8 turnovers.  Those are the Hilltoppers three starting guards combining for 5.9 assists and 6.2 turnover per game.  Gross.  They did beat Austin Peay in the opener (who isn't very good) 77-70 and the three combined 8-15 from three (15-31 overall) with 6 assists (but 8 turnovers) so it looks like not much has changed.  They're gonna bomb, they're not really gonna pass, and they're going to be sloppy.  Hope those three don't get hot, and the rest should take care of itself.

They've got four bigs, but none should be much of a concern.  George Fant, who averaged 13.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per game last season, would be but he really struggled against high major opponents this year and Eliason, Walker, and Konate should have the size to overwhelm him at just 6-6 (though at 250 lbs. if he ends up with King on him he could become an issue.  Aleksej Rostov is the muscle (6-10, 225) who fits in well since he's a turnover machine.  Rob Marberry and Justin Johnson are the promising freshmen with good size (both 6-7 to 6-8 and 230-240 lbs.).  Marberry led the team in scoring off the bench last game, and Johnson turned down teams like Auburn, BC, and Providence to stay home and be a Hilltopper.  WKU overall has the size that they won't be overwhelmed, and they rebounded extremely well last year and have the same basic big man core, but their offense in the paint shouldn't be the main scariness.

That, as I said, remains guards who love to shoot and have little to no conscience.  Once chucker is always a little scary just in case he hits that zone.  Three is slightly terrifying.  For both teams.  It's all going to come down to how often the Gophers get WKU to turn it over and how many threes the Hilltoppers hit.  If either team can win both battles this game is all theirs.  Personally, I think it's a split with the Gophers forcing plenty of turnovers, but getting torched behind the arc as well.  Talent wins out:

Minnesota 70, WKU 61.  


[NOTE:  Even though Franklin Delano Pierce threw a scare into St Johns tonight I'm still not doing a preview on Thursday and you can't make me.]

Minnesota Gophers 95, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 77

It was a tale of two halves in last nights Minnesota Gophers vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers matchup in the first round of the Puerto Rico Tip Off.

You know how whenever anybody criticizes the Big Ten they inevitably mention a "lack of athleticism" and how the players are "slow"?  Generally I think, "hey, maybe Northwestern and Wisconsin and Iowa and some others, but this year's Gopher squad is their most athletic in years and can hang with anybody."  Boy was I proven wrong, because Western Kentucky was far more athletic and far, far, far faster than Minnesota, and during the first half at times I thought we were doomed.  Doomed like poor, stupid Dumbledore. 

The Hilltoppers were getting out in transition, whether after a miss, turnover, or even a Gopher make it didn't matter, and beating the Gophers down the floor to get good shot after good shot.  They were mostly threes, and they were mostly makes, and my tummy got queasy like that time I had buffalo wings with a side of chili for lunch.

Now, there were signs that the Gophers were probably the better team.  WKU couldn't really do anything in the half court, turning it over more often than they scored (or at least it seemed like it).  They couldn't do anything in the paint, because Ralph Sampson and Trevor Mbakwe (and Rodney Williams) basically had it closed off like an amish virgin's pantaloons, and conversely they had no way of stopping the Gopher big men on the block.  Basically the Gophers seemed completely in control on both ends of the floor in the half court, but WKU's transition offense and sloppiness with the ball on Minnesota's part led to it just being a 6 point Gopher lead at half after an Al Nolen three at the buzzer, but it looked like either team could grab control at any point.

And grab control the Gophers did in the second half, starting out with a 12-2 run to start out the half, highlighted by yet another Sampson dunk, and never really looked back.  It turns out you can negate a team's advantage in speed pretty quickly if you just score.  And score, and score.  The second half was essentially a lay-up/dunk line for the Gophers, who just pounded the ball inside, penetrated at will (like me with your sister), and essentially looked completely unstoppable leading to 63% shooting for the game.  Taking away the Hilltoppers ability to run made them play in the half court where they were at a substantial disadvantage, and really led to the Gopher win.


Player-by-Player:


Ralph Sampson (22 pts, 8 rebs, 7 blocks).  The star of the game, as he usually is, Ralph realized early that WKU had nobody who could handle him inside and didn't bother with the perimeter foo-foo stuff.  He attacked inside, early and often, showcasing that hook shot and being just an effective, efficient low-post scorer.  A thing of beauty.  And if that's not enough for you, he also controlled the paint on the defensive end with 7 blocks.  Big Ten Player of the Year?  Big Ten Player of the Year.

Rodney Williams( 17 pts, 7 rebs, 7-10 shooting).  This was exactly the Rodney Williams who gets all the "lottery pick" talk.  He hit threes and did his jumping and dunking thing, but more importantly he put the ball on the floor and got to the rim, he showed a nice mid-range game, and he played good defense and rebounded well.  This is the first time I've really thought we weren't going to see Rodney all four years.  Great game.

Trevor Mbakwe (18 pts, 10 rebs).  He makes such a difference from last year.  Just the prototypical power forward, very strong, very good rebounder, and great athlete.  Controls the paint when he's in, and isn't afraid to mix it up and do some of the dirt work.  He and Sampson are a great combo inside.

Blake Hoffarber (16 pts, 9 assists).  It's pretty clear what he means to this team since Tubby played him 38 minutes (actually he played all the starters at least 32 minutes), and he once again showed why he has that trust.  Guy is just a really solid, smart player who would be an absolutely outstanding point guard if he was a bit quicker.  Or a lot quicker.  But no matter.  WKU is an athletic team, the kind of team that would have taken Blake completely out of the game even a year ago, and he ended up with a huge game.  I don't know if it's his own improvement, a better team around him, or coaching, but Blake looks like the real team leader out there.

Al Nolen (12 pts, 3 assists).  Hit two huge three-pointers in the first half, both from about 25 feet and both after being left wide open.  He doesn't have to be an offensive force, but he does have to keep defenses honest, because if they have to cover him on the perimeter it makes it easier for him to get in the lane - and it did.  He also had an absolutely sweet drive and dish to Mbakwe for a monster dunk.  Seriously, there is very little as fun to watch as good Nolen.  Too bad he's essentially a freakin' two-face.

 
Austin Hollins (3 pts, 3 rebs, 11 minutes).  He's pretty clearly the sixth man, at least until Devoe gets back, and he should be.  The most important thing for a freshman is to understand teh game and play smartly, and he's got that down, but he also brings an excellent jump shot, a good handle, and a quick first step.  Love this kid. 

Colt Iverson (4 pts, 8 minutes).  Missed two layups in one possession at one point and dropped at least one pass, making it clear that he's pretty much always going to be a threat to be an offensive brick wall on any given night.  Still, he's pretty good at taking up space.

Maurice Walker (1 reb, 5 minutes).  Actually kind of looked disinterested in his 5 minutes last night.  Also good at taking up space, but is less efficient than Colton and doing things like blocking shots and grabbing rebounds.  I honestly still can't figure out what exactly we're going to get out of him this year.  Could range from solid contributor to benchwarmer and it wouldn't surprise me.

Chip Armelin (3 pts, 5 minutes).   Still love this guy, and he hit a big three in the first half.   Still don't really trust him, and he had two turnovers in his five minutes.  He reminds me so much of Rico Tucker it makes my pants tight.   

Maverick Ahanmisi (2 minutes).  I was pretty surprised to see him out there at all, actually.  I'm just impressed that he didn't screw anything up 


Really, an incredible offensive second half.  Don't let the 18 point win fool you, this Hilltopper team is going to be very good and should blow right through this consolation bracket.  Come tournament time this win will look very good on the Gophers' resume. 

Speaking of resume building, I can't wait for tomorrow's game against North Carolina.  Not only is it the highest profile opponent I remember the Gophers playing since Kentucky way back in the Final Four that never happened, but it's a team the Gophers could actually beat.  John Henson and Tyler Zeller are big, but Ralph and Mbakwe are stronger - great matchup.  How will Larry Drew handle Al Nolen's pressure?  Will the Gophers be able to score in the half court against a solid UNC defense, and can they minimize turnovers?  Nineteen tonight was way too many and if they do that again they won't beat the Heels.  This is going to be fun.  I have a feeling North Carolina will be a little tougher in the half court than WKU was, but I said the Gophers were the better team the other day and I pretty much have to stick with it.

Minnesota 75, North Carolina 71

Minnesota Gophers Basketball Team Heads to Puerto Rico: A Primer

I'll assume you already know all about your Minnesota Gophers basketball squad, but since they head to Puerto Rico for the 2010 version of the Tip-Off and matchups will be coming too fast and furious to do a preview of each game, here's a primer on all the possible teams the Gophers could face.

We'll start with Thursday's opponent, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.  Names like Orlando "Taco Hawk" Mendez-Valdez, Courtney Lee, Tyrone Brazelton, and A.J. Slaughter might not exactly be known in households across America, but hoop heads should recognize them and know that the Hilltoppers are a perennial contender in the Sun Belt and the program has been built into a mid-major power - 20 wins in 9 of the last 10 seasons and a sweet 16 appearance.

This year is no exception, and the team is led by three senior wings in Sergio Kerusch, Steffphon Pettigrew, and Oklahoma transfer Juan Patillo.  Those three are all averaging at least 18 points per game through the Hilltopper's first two games and are scoring over half the team's points, while Patillo has been a beast on the boards, grabbing twelve in each game.  WKU is also hitting over 43% of their threes this year, so it's not just going to be an outside game.    

Make no mistake, the Gophers can't look past this game to a potential second-round matchup against North Carolina, and they have to contain that trio.  If one of them gets off like Clarence Jackson did in the Siena game they're in trouble, and if two of them do it's going to be lights out.  Minnesota took care of business against both Wofford and the Saints - both preseason contenders in their mid-major conferences - so they should be able to do it here, but this is going to be a tough matchup.

If they do manage to get through it, it should set up a second-round dogfight against the Tar Heels of North Carolina, who famously underachieved last year, although did start to put it together in the end and were NIT runner-ups.  Point guard play was a big weakness for UNC last year, and once again this year their point guards look a bit shaky.  Returning starter Larry Drew and freshman Kendall Marshall combined for just four assists against five turnovers in a mere 14 point win over Lipscomb in UNC's only game thus far, and that should be a weakness to exploit for the Gophers.  John Henson and Tyler Zeller played well and give the Heels good size to go against the Gophers, but this is another area where Minnesota should have the advantage with Sampson, Mbakwe, and Iverson.

The X-factor will be freshman and pre-season All-American Harrison Barnes, who is essentially being anointed as the greatest player of all-time.  Assuming he and Rodney Williams are matched up on each other it's going to be time for Rodney to grow up in a hurry and become the defensive stopper he has the potential to be, or his ass will be shredded faster than if he put it into E. Honda's Slap Chop.

The Heels have a lofty ranking at 8th in the country, but I'm telling you right now it's not deserved - the Gophers are the better team.

If something weird happens the Gophers other potential second-round game would be against the Hofstra Pride.  Not a bad team by any stretch, but stuck in the middle of a pretty good Colonial Conference once again this season.  They do have a pretty dynamic player in 6-3 senior guard Charles Jenkins who put up 26 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals, and 2 blocks in their opening game win over Farmingdale State (of course, the team scored 102, so how much can you really take from that game?)  Still, he 21-5-4-2 last year, so he can take over a game, but with Al Nolen on the Gophers side if they do face Hofstra they shouldn't have much trouble.

They could end up facing any of the other four teams depending on how everything shakes out, but assuming they win their first and everything holds according to plan they would likely face either the West Virginia Mountaineers or Vanderbilt Commodores, whether it's in the Championship or the Third Place Game - hopefully WVU in the championship.

The Mountaineers lost quite a bit from last year's Final Four team but are still expected to be an NCAA Tournament team based on the talent that is back, and are the team I would make the favorite to win this thing.  Not only do they have a potential superstar in Kevin Jones, who was second on the team in scoring and rebounding last year while leading them in FG and 3-pt shooting percentage - and stands 6-8, but they bring back two point guards and enough size to tangle with the Gophers, should they meet.  The guards, Truck Bryant and Joe Mazzulla, will help negate the Gophers tough perimeter defense, while Jones and the other bigs could handle Ralph and the boys in the paint.  This would be an absolutely outstanding game.  Let's hope it happens.

If not the Mountaineers, the most likely third opponent for the Gophers would be Vandy, a tournament team last year who needs to figure out how to replace their starting point guard and center (who were the top 2 scorers) from last year.  It's only one game in, but they look like they're on the right track.  New point guard Brad Tinlsey opened the year with a triple-double (albeit against Presbyterian), while new center Festus Ezeli (who the Gophers were recruiting for a while) chipped in with 14 pts and 6 rebounds.  And, lest you think they have no talent returning, their two best players are their wings:  6-7 do everything Jeffrey Taylor and 6-4 lights out shooter John Jenkins, both of whom were named to the All-SEC Freshman team last year.  Taylor is a possible SEC player of the year, while Jenkins is on basically every list of "best shooter in the NCAA" I've seen.  This one wouldn't be easy either.

What would be easy, and disappointing, is if the Gophers lose their first game, end up in the loser's bracket, and play either the Nebraska Cornhuskers or Davidson Wildcats in the consolation game (or worse).  No offense to either school, but this would mean something has gone horribly, horribly wrong and Minnesota took a big NCAA resume building opportunity and turned it into a loss to WKU and two meaningless wins, missing out on a couple of shots at big-time teams who will end up with very nice RPIs.  Nebraska is going to finish at the bottom of the Big 12 and Davidson hasn't been able to recapture the magic of two years ago and is no longer a dangerous mid-major team, so neither will do anything to build up a resume or give a good idea of how good the Gophers are/can be.

So is it fair to say this game against Western Kentucky is the most important non-conference game of the year?  I'd say yes, without question.  A win over the Hilltoppers all but guarantees two cracks and getting a big marquee win, and even two losses will at least help the RPI a bit.  A loss all but guarantees two games against teams that don't help if you win, but are killers if you lose.  So, basically, don't freaking lose this game.

A Quick and Early look at the Gopher Basketball Non-Conference Schedule

Alright, so before when I said I wasn't going to do a post about the Gophers non-conference schedule I was obviously lying, because here is a post about the Gophers non-conference basketball schedule.  I have tried to keep this information as accurate as possible, but there are always things that slip through and not even a genius such as myself can keep up with which players may or may not have been kicked off/left the team for every school in the country.  At least I can guarantee their records are accurate.  Probably.

Nov 2 vs. Northeastern State, Nov 8 vs. Winona State - Whatever.  Pass.

Nov 12 vs. Wofford College
Record:  26-9 (15-3 SoCon), lost in first round of NCAAs to Wisconsin
Good Wins:  @ Georgia, South Carolina
Last Year RPI:  70
Starters Lost:  1 (
NOTES:  A nice homecoming game for seniors Noah "The more successful" Dahlman and Cameron Rundles, the Terriers should be favorites to repeat in the SoCon and will probably be the Gophers biggest test outside of Puerto Rico.  Even so, this is a slow team without the athletes needed to keep up, and should be the first in a long line of easy wins to open the season.

Nov 15 vs. Siena
Record:  27-7 (17-1 MAAC), lost in first round of NCAAs to Purdue
Good Wins:  None
Last Year RPI:  33
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:   One of the hottest mid-major type teams the last few years, the Saints should take a step back this year with a lot to replace including Ronald Moore, the national assist leader, and Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin, their two leading scorers and all-around threats from the wing.  Still, they do have some firepower back (Clarence Jackson is going to explode this year) and will probably be the second best team the Gophers will face - which still means they should be an easy win.

Nov 18 vs. Western Kentucky (in Puerto Rico)
Record:  21-13 (10-6 Sun Belt)
Good Wins:  Vanderbilt, Murray State
Last Year RPI:  138
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  Top player A.J. Slaughter is gone, but the Hilltoppers have a bit of a mini-mid-major dynasty going and reload their roster with a very good recruiting class this season.  They are bringing in five new players, including SG Brandon Peters who ranks as Rivals #129 freshman and a couple other three star recruits, along with a couple of transfers from Big 12 schools (Oklahoma and OSU).  It's probably good the Gophers get them early, because I have a feeling they are going to be a lot tougher by the end of the year.

Nov 19 vs. North Carolina (in Puerto Rico, assuming they beat WKU)
Record:  20-17 (5-11 ACC), lost in NIT Championship game to Dayton
Good Wins:  Ohio State, Michigan State, Wake, Miss State
Last Year RPI: 64
Starters Lost:  2 (I think)
NOTES:  It's hard to say how many starters the Tar Heels lost because they used so many lineups last season and never really were able to figure the team out until the NIT, but don't let the record fool you they have a ton of talent.  Harrison Barnes is amazing, John Henson started to look like he figured it out late in the season, Reggie Bulluck should be awesome, and really it just goes on and on.  Of course, I would have said basically the same thing last year, but I find it hard to believe UNC is going to be at that level back-to-back seasons.

Nov 21 vs.  Vanderbilt or West Virginai (or Nebraska or Davidson)
NOTES:  Most likely this will be either WVU or Vandy, and a win over either would be a challenge and a nice resume builder.  I think if they manage to beat UNC I'd hope for a championship matchup with he Mountaineers in order to get the biggest scalp possible, but if they lose to the Heels I'd hope they go up against Vandy, which would still be a nice win but an easier win as well.


Nov 24 vs. North Dakota State
Record:  11-18 (8-10 Summit)
Good Wins:  None
Last Year RPI:  267
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:  This is not the same scrappy, rough-and-tumble, senior white boy led squad from a couple of years ago.  This is just a bad team.  Look at that RPI.  Now realize it's going to be about the same this year.  Worthless game here, rather than giving a few third and fourth tier former Minnesota high school players a chance to play in the Barn.  I guess I can see some value in that, and if this was the only game against an opponent like this, I wouldn't complain.


Nov 29 vs. Virginia (Big 10/ACC Challenge)
Record: 15-15 (5-11 ACC)
Good Wins:  UAB, Georgia Tech
Last Year RPI:  123
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  We get Virginia again the Challenge, which is a yawner, especially since their best and most exciting player, Sylvan Landesberg, got essentially booted off the team last year and is currently trying to hook on with an NBA squad.  Still, Tony Bennett is already starting to pay dividends on the recruiting trail, bringing in a very good class including #30 in the country K.T. Harrell, #108 James Johnson, #119 Joe Harris, and #148 Will Regan.  Wait.  Holy crap that's a really good class.  Virginia is on their way back to relevance (like, Harold Deane/Curtis Staples territory), and I'm now amending my previous statement and saying that THIS will be the toughest non-Puerto Rico game.

Dec 4 vs. Cornell
Record:  27-4 (13-1 Ivy), lost in the Sweet 16 of the NCAAs to Kentucky
Good Wins:  Temple, Wisconsin, Alabama, Harvard x 2
Last Year RPI:  37
Starters Lost:  4
NOTES:  Stop.  Just stop.  This is not a good opponent.  Last year was lightning in a bottle because they had 1.  A high quality coach, 2.  A legitimate scoring threat who could take over the game, 3.  A skilled 7-footer who was a weapon on offense and defense, and 4.  A point guard who could control the game.  All those things are gone.  The Gophers will win by 40, and at the end of the season their RPI will be north of 200.

Dec 8 @ St. Joseph's
Record:  11-20 (5-11 A-10)
Good Wins:  Dayton, Boston College
Last Year RPI:  180
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  The only true road game on the non-conference slate, always a good sign of a challenging schedule, and it's against a team with an RPI of 180 last year who will probably be even worse.  This is a truly horrible game, because nobody gives a crap if you win on the road against a team like this, but they are just good enough (and the Gophers are historically shaky enough on the road) to pull of an upset, which really hurts NCAA bid chances.  I am interested in seeing C.J. Aiken, a freshman who Rivals ranks as the #8 incoming center in the country who is playing for the Hawks for some reason that I assume involves a lost bet or alcohol.   


Dec 11 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Record:  20-13 (11-7 OVC)
Good Wins:  Morgan State
Last Year RPI:  164
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  They play Western, so might as well play Eastern, right?  I don't know.  A middling Ohio Valley team?  They're more likely to be a 200+ in RPI than a sub-100, so I don't really like this.  Should be an easy win though, so I guess they got that going for them.  Since there aren't enough of those already.

Dec 15 vs. Akron
Record:  24-11 (12-4 MAC), lost in first round of CBI to Green Bay
Good Wins:  Niagara
Last Year RPI:  95
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:  My first reaction was "Akron?  Cool.  They've been a bubble team recently."  And then I realized that the days of Dru Joyce and Romeo Travis were actually five years or so ago, so they really aren't a dangerous team anymore (especially with losing their two best players to graduation).  I mean, Akron always seems to be a nice team, and I don't hate them being on the schedule at all since they'll probably just be a low 100 RPI, but meh.  Although maybe Lebron will show up.  Did I tell you I'm a huge Miami Heat fan now?


So really, there's no reason the Gophers shouldn't be, at a minimum, 9-2 heading into Big Ten play.  8-3 would be bad but not a disaster, but if they go in any worse than that the season is basically already done.  I don't think anybody realistically thinks they'll be more than a couple few games over .500 in Big Ten play, so a 7-4 non-conf record with that many cupcakes would make an NCAA bid a very tough road.

And it's really not that there are a ton of low-end games.  At most they'll probably end up with two teams with sub-200 RPIs, but it's the lack of high-end games that is so disappointing.  If everything breaks perfectly in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off they will end up having all of two marquee non-conference games - neither at home.  Didn't you think we'd be seeing better in Tubby:  Year IV?  I did.  Yeah, he's better than Monson (and thank god they didn't hire Molinari) and yes, we're seeing a better product and yes, they have indeed made the NCAA tournament two years in a row, so maybe it's my fault for wanting more.

Is it my fault?  Am I alone here?

Six Very Important Things this Morning 8.6.2010

I really don't intend every single post to be in this format, it just worked out that way this week.  It's so easy and I like doing it.  I do still intend to do some more in depth type of posts, and definitely will during basketball season.  But for now, you'll get what you get and you won't get upset.

1.  The bullpen tried like hell to blow the game.  Luckily, the Twins were able to scrap together a couple of runs in the top of the ninth, mainly thanks to a Jason Kubel popup that hit the catwalk above the field and resulted in a hit and the first run, and then Matt Capps managed to shut the door.  I didn't get to watch the game, being at work and all, so I don't have too much to add except that they really surprised me.  Splitting a four-gamer on the road against a team like the Rays is a very positive outcome, especially considering they dropped the first two.  If they can keep splitting with the good teams and win the series against the bad, they should be in good shape assuming Chicago decides to lose once in a while.  With 63 games to go they probably need to go about 34-29 or so.  That would get them to 95 wins, and I have to assume that would win this division.  Again, assuming Chicago doesn't go 45-15 like they have recently.


2.  Naturally the White Sox won as well.  Because they never lose.  Not even when world's worst closer and possible worst pitcher and human being ever Bobby Jenks gives up a 3-run home run in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game.  Why he is still closing I'll never understand, especially since they have Thornton, Putz, and Santos who are all much better pitchers.  It's that damn save statistic.  Man, people are more obsessive and devoted to that then their bibles.

3.  In case there weren't enough young pitchers making noise this year.  Go ahead and add James McDonald to the list.  McDonald, once a pretty good prospect in the Dodgers' system, made his debut for the Pirates after being acquired for Octavio Dotel at the trade deadline and pitched well.  He had mainly been working out of the bullpen in his one full season with LA last year, but acclimated himself well, going six innings and allowing just four hits and no runs while striking out 8.  I like what the Pirates are doing, maximizing the value on some marginal veterans over the last few years to acquire some possible future solid talent.  I was going to list all the upside-y guys on their roster, but there's just too many.  Just know that the Pirates might be finally starting to move in the right direction.  They're young, they have some talent, and if some of these young prospects develop they could find themselves on the right side of .500 sooner rather than later.  At the very least there seems to be a plan here, unlike, say, Kansas City.

4.  Tiger Woods officially sucks at golf.  Tiger shot a 74 today in the first round of the Bridgestone Invitational, which is +4, and you may think that's just a bad round and other golfers like Anthony Kim and Camilo Villegas shot similar scores, but this is notable for one big reason:  he completely dominates this course.  Forget about Augusta, Pebble, or St. Andrews, Firestone is where he really dominates, having won this tournament something like 7 out of the last 10 times he's played it with a runner-up mixed in as well.  That 74 is not only his worst score on this course by two strokes, but it also puts him in a tie for 70th - and there are only 81 golfers entered.  He only shot better than seven golfers, several of whom barely even count, on a course he's owned.  I think it's safe to say his career is pretty much over.  Might as well retire and start collecting stud fees.

5.  I guess Calipari didn't teach Josh Pastner everything.  Slick Cal never seemed to have issues getting his recruits eligible (see:  Rose, Derrick and Evans, Tyreke) but Josh Pastner has just run into some issues with Will Barton, Class of 2010's #2 rated shooting guard and #11 on the Rivals list.  Barton has been ruled academically ineligible for the year, and if the NCAA doesn't pass him on appeal (they won't), it will be a major blow to Pastner's attempts to keep Memphis relevant.  The question for Gopher fans is how will this affect Trevor Mbakwe and his possible choice between the Gophers and Tigers?  There's some speculation that seeing Memphis suspend a player for the entire year would turn him off, but I don't really see it.  If his trial is pushed back again and Minnesota won't let him play but some team promises he can suit up, whether it's Memphis or Morehead State, I have a feeling he'll be there.  And then, in two years, we can watch both Royce White and Trevor Mbakwe make All-American teams while the Gophers grab yet another double-digit seed.

6.  The Gophers will play Western Kentucky in the Puerto Rico Tip-off.  And if they beat the Hilltoppers, and they should, they will likely have a date with Harrison Barnes and the North Carolina Tarheels.  Can Tubby and the boys pull off another marquee win in an early season tournament to go with their wins over Louisville and Butler the last two years?  I don't know, probably.  


As far as WKU goes, they're generally amongst the top team's in the Sun Belt, but they are still a far cry from the sweet 16 team or the team led by Taco Hawk, and are losing their top player in guard A.J. Slaughter.  Still, the Hilltoppers have proven over and over again that this isn't a program you can ever take lightly.  They have four of their top seven back from the 20-12 team from last season, the same team that beat Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, and have a Rivals Top 150 player coming in guard Derrick Gordon (#126).  Great, I've suddenly talked myself into being terrified for this game.

The rest of the schedule was released as well, and I sort of feel like it maybe deserves it's own post but ugh.  Look at this:  Northeastern State, Winona State, Wofford, Siena, NDSU, Virginia, Cornell, @ St. Joe's, Eastern Kentucky, and Akron.  Woof.  I know three of those teams were in the NCAA Tournament last year, but both Siena and Cornell were hit hard by graduations.  Wofford is the only team on there that is likely to get a bid, although Siena could still grab one with what they have left.  Overall pretty underwhelming.  Just like your mom.

Here's What's Going to Happen: South Bracket

FIRST ROUND

#1 North Carolina over #16 Radford. Second biggest margin of victory in the whole tournament.

#9 Butler over #8 LSU. Seems odd that LSU would be favored over Butler, but I suppose with Butler losing in the Horizon tournament it makes some sense. One interesting fun fact I found is that Butler relies on making free throws a lot in order to score their points. If LSU can keep from fouling them, they might take this one.

#12 Western Kentucky over #5 Illinois. I have a feeling this is going to be a popular pick after WKU's run to the sweet 16 last year, but I have to go ahead and make it as well. The Illinois offense is just way too unpredictable, and can go for far too long periods of time for them to make a run in the tournament, and it wouldn't be shocking for them to go dead on offense right away in the first round, especially with Chester Frazier banged up. WKU isn't a particularly great defensive squad, but I don't know that you have to be to shut down the crapass Illini.

#4 Gonzaga over #13 Akron. I almost took the Zips here, really I did. They play very good defense, and are one of the best in the country at turning their opponents over. Unfortunately, I can't get past my love for Gonzaga this year. I think they are absolutely one of the best teams in the country this year. Austin Daye might be one of my favorite players and he and Heytveldt for a great tandem in the paint (and outside it) when Heytveldt isn't high, and both Heytveldt and Bouldin shoot over 50% from the field - and Bouldin is a guard. With Pargo running things, the Bulldogs could go far.

#6 Arizona State over #11 Temple. Rich Harden and Jeff Pendergaph are absolutely one of the best NBA Jam style tandems in the country. Temple has some weirdo named Christmas.

#3 Syracuse over #14 Stephen F. Austin. Shouldn't be an issue for the Orange, and I stress shouldn't be. There are a couple of reasons things could get dicey, however. SFA is one of the slowest teams in the country, and also one of the best defensively, holding opponents to just 28% shooting from three and 42% from two. Those are awesome numbers. If they can keep the Orange from scoring, they aren't the most disciplined team in the world and could implode. Of course, those gaudy defensive numbers come from a team with a Strength of Schedule that was 219th in the country, but hey, it could happen.

#10 Michigan over #7 Clemson. Doesn't Clemson seem like the kind of team that would choke here? And doesn't Manny Harris seem like exactly the type of player to raise his game on the big stage?

#2 Oklahoma over #15 Morgan State. This will be the biggest margin of victory in the entire tournament.

SECOND ROUND

#1 North Carolina over #9 Butler. Butler is cute, really they are, but they aren't nearly as good as last year and will be exposed in a huge way by the juggernaut that is the Tar Heels. Of course, if Lawson can't play or something, this gets a whole lot more interesting.

#4 Gonzaga over #12 Western Kentucky. As I said above, I love the Zags this year.

#6 Arizona State over #3 Syracuse. This is going to be a barn burner. I've gone back and forth on this one about ten times, and I just can't make up my mind. Right now, I'm feeling Arizona State will be able to take it, based simply on how good James Harden is.

#2 Oklahoma over #10 Michigan. The Wolverines have zero answer for stupid Blake Griffin. Not even a little bit.

SWEET SIXTEEN

#4 Gonzaga over #1 North Carolina. Seriously, I really like Gonzaga this year. I also don't like the matchup for the Heels, who I pretty much had in my final four all season long until about five minutes ago. Just looking at numbers, North Carolina relies heavily on the two-point shot over the three pointer, and the Bulldogs are awesome at defending the two - their only defensive weakness lies in defending the three which is not going to be a major factor. Neither team turns it over, and both offenses are incredibly efficient. UNC relies on the free throw line to get a ton of it's points (if you watched Hansbrough you know this), but Gonzaga is one of the best at not fouling. As long as the Bulldogs can keep them off the o-boards, they can win. I think they do it. Look out for Austin "All" Day baby.

#2 Oklahoma over #6 Arizona State. Griffin and the Sooners face a good post man here for the first time, but he's also all kinds of the wrong matchup for the Sun Devils. Jeff Pendergaph is a skilled big man, but he doesn't have the strength or size to handle Griffin. I know I keep emphasizing Blake, but seriously, he's pretty much the whole team.

ELITE 8

#4 Gonzaga over #2 Oklahoma. The Sooners finally run into a team that can deal with Griffin in the Bulldgos and Josh Heytveldt. If Gonzaga has a defensive weakness, it's quick guards with some size, and Willie Warren will end up being the key to this game more so than Griffin. I think Pargo can handle him, and I think the Zags finally break through and make their elusive first final four appearance.

BOO YA.

WEST REGION
MIDWEST REGION

Review and what not

I was going to wait until tomorrow to type up tonight's games, but I've been drinking screwdrivers all night (note: that's not gay) and I'm in a typey mood. I didn't even get to start watching the games until after 9 tonight, due to some interestingly scary developments in Project: Baby W. Summary - it looks like she may be on her way early, and thus the W home has been a whirlwind of baby setup activity.

That is neither here nor there. What is here and there, is that we went 4-0 on game bets today. What up? Also went 8-1 on player props. For reals. Dominating the late rounds of the tournament. Like every year. Expect dominance tomorrow. Or a complete collapse to get back towards .500. I don't know. On to the games.

North Carolina 68, Washington State 47: This is the only game where we lost a player prop, as Danny Green outscored Kyle Weaver 15-10. This is also the game I didn't get to see much of, as CBS mercifully switched off this ass-kicking. The interesting thing is that Washington State did the two things that were keys: 1) control tempo and 2) limit Hansbrough. The did both of these in the first half, yet were still down fourteen. The second half saw the dude with one of the worst nicknames ever, "Psycho T" have a better half as the Heels ran away with the game. Seriously that nickname is really just retarded. Also, the dude never, ever closes his mouth. For real. If you say you've seen him with his mouth closed, you're a god damned liar.

Xavier 79, West Virginia 75: This was a fun game, overtime even. After X got out to a big first half lead I was feeling pretty good about myself, but they blew it. The last 8 minutes or so was back and forth for the lead, and was one of the more entertaining basketball games of the year. WVU's Joe Alexander really is a pretty good player, but he's a big time forcer shooter guy. Before tonight's 8-18, he hadn't shot better than 33% in his last three games, but everybody wanted to talk about him like he was jesus because he scores a lot of points. He did play well tonight, but his defense is brutal. On one occasion I saw Josh Duncan get the ball in the post against him and pass up several layups just to continue to make fancy "dreamshakesque" moves and just basically have fun. Alexander is a scorer no doubt, but he plays defense like a Griggs M chick against a drunk dude.

I have a couple other quick comments about that game. One of the more impressive things I've seen in the history of the world was Drew Lavender's defense tonight. Not even talking about the way he handled the perimeter against WVU's guards, I mean one play where Mazzulla for WVU got the ball in the open court and came in 1-on-1 against Lavender, and got turned away. Didn't even get a shot off. Just tremendous closeout defense against a charging opponent. Another thing is that Xavier's best player, Josh Duncan, had four fouls with about 11 minutes left in the game. At one point coach Sean Miller brought him back in, but nobody on the Mountaineers bothered to attack him to try and get a fifth foul. Horrible coaching. Not unlike leaving a 41% three point shooter in BJ Raymond open twice in the last two minutes. West Virginia had this game in the bag with a 6 point lead in OT and let it go. Inexcusable.

One guy I feel bad for in a way that I don't really feel bad at all is WVU's center Jamie Smalligan. Dude came over to WVU from Butler to be the new Pittsnoggle. You know, a seven footer who was more comfortable hanging out around the three point line, a "Rickert" or a "Bogart" if you will. Turns out Huggy-Bear isn't too interested in gays like that, and Smalligan posted career lows in, well, everything. Maybe you should be such a sissy, Rick. I mean Jamie.

Louisville 79, Tennessee 60: The most anticipated game of the night, for me, turned out to be kind of disappointing, as I think both teams turned out to be idiots. I think from the 16 minute time out to the 12 minute time out the teams combined went 1-12. It was very uptempo, but for the most part - well, Tennessee's part, was very stupid. I think the Vols would absolutely win a streetball tournament, and I also think it's very possible Bruce Pearl is a horrible coach. Team is obscenely talented, yet underachieves. Did you also know that some dude who was a bouncer on Jerry Springer has his own show now? The fact that this douchehole makes tons of money and I don't really pisses me off.

Anyway, what the f happened to Chris Lofton? He had 15 tonight, which covered his over/under of 14.5, but it came on 3-15 shooting, 2-11 from three. He made the degenerate gamblers happy, but I can't image Vol fans are too thrilled. His scoring dropped more than five points a game this year, and he's shooting 7.3% worse from the floor. Want to know why? Because every damn shot he throws up there is a fadeaway with the front foot kicking forward. It's not quite chick style shooting, but he's really killing both his future and his teams chances. I mean, I guess he already killed his teams' chances, but I was referring to his NBDL team. They're gonna hate this guy. I also saw him do that stupid thing where when you shoot a three and there's a defender anywhere near you, fall down and try to get the foul. Well, the ref didnt' fall for it and his defender just went streaking down and got hit for a layup - wide open because Lofton was on the floor. I think it's safe to assume chris loften is kind of a homo.

UCLA 88, Western Kentucky 78: Another game we didn't get much of. I'll say that the fact that WKU was able to get all UCLA's guards in foul trouble, Collison out, Shipp and Westbrook with four, is actually fairly irrelevant now that they won. Xavier's guards arent' ooh no there's a snake eating mice babies on the tv now. The snake killed the mom mouse with poison and is now eating the babies since they have no protection dude this is messed up. Wow. Ok, sorry. Xavier doesn't have the quick guards that effed up UCLA tonight, but they have a much better answer inside for your precious Kevin Love who you think is so awesome because he's white and you're a racist son of a bitch. Yeah, I'm calling a Xavier win. I had UCLA as my champ, but they look like total hell right now. They're just waiting for somebody to put them out of their misery at this point.

Oh, and the picture is Sarah Chalke because I wanted it to be. There's no rhyme or reason here. But I did feel I owed people.

Sweet 16 Preview: West Region

Xavier +1 vs. West Virginia: What the heck is West Virginia doing here? I had pretty much dismissed them from the start, expecting Arizona to knock them off, and even if they didn't they certainly wouldn't beat Duke. That all came from not seeing them play this year, and remembering the gimmicky Beilein teams of the past, with their not rebounding and three point chucking. A team like that would have been ripe for Arizona or Duke to destroy. Turns out, Huggins has remade this team, building around the very solid Joe Alexander and developing a more inside/outside game plan, rather than having everyone chuck threes all day. If you need proof, 34% of the Mountaineers attempts this year were from three, 165th in the country. Last year, they shot 49% of their shots from three, fifth in the country - and ranked 3rd and 7th in the two years prior to that. They are a much better team this way.

Xavier, on the other hand, is pretty much the same team that almost knocked off Ohio State last year, and would have without a miraculous run in the last few minutes by the Buckeyes. The Musketeers have been tough in the tournament, having trailed in the second half against both Georgia and Purdue only to end up winning, and covering, in both games. They come at you with a lot of options, with six guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.1 points per game. They have size (Derrick Brown at 6-8, Josh Duncan at 6-9), athleticism (CJ Anderson, Drew Lavender), defense (Lavender, Stanley Burrell - A10 Def. POY), coaching (Sean Miller), efficiency (Duncan, Brown, Anderson, Jason Love - all better than 50% from the floor), perimeter shooting (Duncan, Lavender, BJ Raymond - all over 40% from three), and they make their free throws (Duncan, Raymond, Lavender, and Burrell - all better than 83%). In case it's not obvious, I'm very big on Xavier. WVU has looked good, but these are still players recruited for Beilien's system, and the run stops here as Xavier wins and covers, then puts a scare into UCLA.

Western Kentucky +12.5 vs. UCLA: It's awesome that WKU got this far. I've been a fan of the program since the first time I saw Courtney Lee play, and was hoping they'd make a run. I picked them over Drake, and almost picked them over UCONN before thinking UCONN's size would present a major problem. Of course, San Diego took care of that, and here are the Hilltoppers in the sweet 16, with a horrible matchup against UCLA.

Of course, the Hilltoppers could pull it off. As good as Sun Belt Player of the Year Courtney Lee is, and he's very, very good, the first two rounds proved there's more to this team than just him. Tyrone Brazelton dropped 33 on Drake in round one and 15 more in the second round. Although they get most of their scoring from four guards, they do have a group of guys 6-7 and above who they can trot out to the post, and they'll need them against UCLA. Obviously the Bruins are going to look to Kevin Love and Darren Collison to key them against the Hilltoppers. It should be fun to watch the matchup between Collison and Westbrook on one side, and the four WKU guards on the other. I think WKU can hold their own here, but don't know how they are going to deal with Love, not to mention Mbah a Moute. The good news for Hilltopper fans is that Mbah a Moute is having injury troubles, and Josh Shipp is battling illness, which would likely help Lee on the offensive end.

Even with the injury concerns of UCLA, I don't think WKU quite has the juice to get this one done, but I expect it to be close. The pick is WKU +12.5, expecting UCLA to get the win. No George Mason this year.