It's March, which means it's time for madness, which kicks off with smaller conference tournaments beginning later tonight with the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, and Patriot. I didn't do it last year, but every other year (so many years) I've written this blog I've done little conference tournament previews because I think conference tournaments are almost as good as the NCAA Tournament. Ok, they're not, but they're a great little warm-up with wall-to-wall action for two weeks including day games, and everyone knows day games are the best things to gamble on. I figured now that I'm participating in The Jerome this year (a thing where a whole bunch of college basketball nerds try to pick the winner of every conference tournament), I might as well bring them back. So here is the return of the Award Winning DWG Conference Tournament previews, starting with the tourneys kicking off tonight. (FYI - collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com has nice breakdowns of these as well).
ATLANTIC SUN:
The Atlantic Sun is on a nice little streak of success. Mercer beat Duke last year in the tournament, which ruled, and Florida Gulf Coast, #DunkCity, made that nifty little sweet sixteen two seasons ago. Whoever comes out of this bracket could surprise again as the conference netted wins over Purdue, UMASS, and Georgia Tech this year.
FAVORITE: North Florida. The Ospreys own that win over Purdue, and they stomped through the league to a 12-2 mark. They're also the only team in the conference with a Top 100 efficiency mark on either end of the floor according to kenpom.com (#69 offensive eff.). The only other team to hit double digit wins in the A-Sun, Florida Gulf Coast at 11-3, lost twice to North Florida, both times by double digits.
SLEEPER: USC Upstate. Just 8-6 in the conference, the Spartans weren't all that impressive this year except for the fact that they swept North Florida and were the only A-Sun team to beat the Ospreys. They also have the conference's leading scorer in Ty Greene (20.1ppg) who absolutely went off on North Florida this year (32ppg in the two contests). They're on the other side of the bracket and will have to survive a tough matchup against FGCU to get there, but no way does UNF want to see these guys again.
THE PICK: North Florida. It's so tempting to take Gulf Coast. It would be a great story since they have still have two players, now seniors, from that Sweet 16 team who would love to make a run again. Unfortunately the Eagle offense just hasn't been that good this year, and the A-Sun setup, where the higher seed gets home court, swings this one North Florida's way. Add in the season sweep by the Ospreys and I just can't do it.
HORIZON LEAGUE:
This used to be one of the premier mid-majors conferences in the land, but Butler's jump to the Big East along with down trends and once dangerous schools like Valpo, Cleveland State, Oakland, and Wright State have taken off some of the shine. The only real good win the entire conference had in non-conference play was Green Bay's over Miami (could include Valpo over Murray State, too).
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. The Crusaders won the top seed with a 13-3 record, and as such have home court throughout the tournament (as long as they're alive) and a bye directly into the semifinals (so did second seeded Green Bay).
SLEEPER: Oakland. The Grizzlies had a pretty terrible non-conference run going 5-10 including some really bad losses, but they also packed in plenty of tough games which gave them the #12 toughest non-conference schedule in the country. They turned it around in conference play going 11-5, including 10-3 to close out the season. With two of the league's first team all-conference players on board they're dangerous.
THE PICK: Green Bay. The bye into the semis is so valuable that this pick basically comes down to Valpo or Green Bay, and I'm going Phoenix based on their defense (#32 in the country) and 2-point offense (52.4%, 30th in the country). The can't win a shootout since they can't and don't shoot 3s (7th lowest % of points from 3s in the country), but that defense should keep them close enough to play their game no matter who they play.
PATRIOT LEAGUE:
I think I pimped this book, The Last Amateurs, every time I've written about the Patriot League but it's really good even if it's not really all that relevant anymore (I think they have athletic scholarships now). It's still a good book. Anyway, Bucknell won the conference number 1 seed which seems like a pretty common occurrence without looking it up, but they weren't dominant with 5 conference losses and the Patriot is pretty wide open.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Like I said, they took down the regular season conference title and that gives them the #1 seed and home court throughout, a place they only lost once in conference play. They lost by just seven against Villanova and eight against Penn State this year, so when things are going well they're a good team. When they're not, however, they're capable of losing to Siena and Mount St. Mary's. Weird team in a weird conference.
SLEEPER: Lehigh. They have kenpom's conference player of the year in Tim Kempton who averaged 15.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this year, and they could be blossoming at the right time. Their last 3 conference games were a blowout of league winner Bucknell and two close losses to the 2nd place and 4th place teams in the league.
THE PICK: Colgate. Eighth in the country in effective field goal percentage, which will happen when you shoot 40% from three and 53% from two, both top 20 marks in the nation. The defense is really shaky, but the Raiders went 7-1 against the four other top-5 teams in Patriot League play so as long as they can avoid laying an egg against Army or Navy, two bad teams that beat them in the regular season, in round 2 I like their chances. Three of their top four scorers are guards, which is always a good thing in March.
Tomorrow the American East, Big South, Northeast, and Ohio Valley get going. Stop back for more!
Showing posts with label Valpo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Valpo. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Monday, March 4, 2013
Conference Tournament Previews (Tuesday Editiion)
It's March, which means I'll do what I do every year at this time. Well, actually what I do every year at this time is obsess over the Bubble and try to figure out exactly how many games the Gophers need to win to get a bid or if they're already out unless they win the B10 Tournament. Since I don't have to worry about that this year (they're in, nerds) I'll concentrate more on the other thing I do every year at the beginning of March - celebrate the smaller conference tournaments and rejoice in day action. So here's we go.
These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:
[ED. NOTE: I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]
BIG SOUTH
Wow. What a way to kick things off. The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat. In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone. This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE: Charleston Southern. Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season. Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER: Virginia Military Academy. I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense. It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots. They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK: High Point. This is rough. Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers. I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.
HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something. And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East? Or formerly Big East or new Big East? I can't keep up. I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively). Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER: UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting). They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two. You like that? Expect the Phoenix to rise? God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK: Valparaiso. It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked. Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match. Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.
Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened. Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen. This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately. As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.
The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large. Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew? Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him. Right?
As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV. Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's. Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more. Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss. It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title). Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day. Neat.
These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:
[ED. NOTE: I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]
BIG SOUTH
Wow. What a way to kick things off. The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat. In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone. This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE: Charleston Southern. Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season. Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER: Virginia Military Academy. I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense. It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots. They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK: High Point. This is rough. Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers. I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.
HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something. And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East? Or formerly Big East or new Big East? I can't keep up. I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively). Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER: UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting). They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two. You like that? Expect the Phoenix to rise? God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK: Valparaiso. It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked. Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match. Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.
Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened. Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen. This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately. As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.
The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large. Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew? Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him. Right?
As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV. Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's. Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more. Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss. It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title). Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day. Neat.
Monday, October 22, 2012
DWG NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #38-34
Way to go, Kyle Lohse. You might as well just come to my house and steal my money. And it's not just Lohse, it's everybody - not only the Cardinals but the entire National League. The Giants suck. I'm sorry, it's just a fact, but everyone seems to just lay down and die. The Cards, a normally excellent fielding team, have given more free runs away this series than they've scored and suddenly the Cards can't hit Barry Zito? I can't believe I'm going to have to be a Tiger fan for the Series. Gross. But I sure as shit can't root for the Giants. I feel sick. Whatever. Let's look at some chicks and talk some roundball.
38. Texas Longhorns. Similar to last year's team, this Texas squad will be deep and talented in the back court with major question marks in the front court. Dissimilar to last year's team, they won't have last year's leading scorer in the Big 12 (at 20.1ppg) J'Covan Brown, who left the team to enter the NBA draft and then didn't get drafted like a genius. Stupid name guy Myck Kabongo will be the key as the team's point guard and best player, but his status is currently in limbo due to some agent related nonsense. Although the agent is the same guy who represents Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph and Kabongo is also part of that bizarre Canada/Texas pipeline, so I'm pretty sure he's definitely guilty of whatever. I believe suspension is the only answer.
37. Miami Hurricanes. It's very possible I'm overrating the Canes since my ranking for them (particularly ahead of FSU) doesn't seem to jibe with most others I've seen, but I like a lot about this team. Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji are both double-double threats at all times and averaged 22 points and 13 rebounds per game between them. Johnson is 6-10, 292 lbs. Kadji is 6-11, 242 lbs. They're both seniors so they aren't about to fuck around this season. They do lose two of last year's three starting guards, but they get by far the best one back in Durand Scott, and Shane Larkin (yes, Barry's kid) is going to be in his second year and can give the Canes a real live point guard for the first time in a while. He was one of the best point guard prospects a year ago and had a decent freshman year, but it's time for him to step up to the plate and go yard from the duguot with a rosin bag before the Hurricanes boot one and strike out in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded.
36. Valparaiso Crusaders. Valpo won the Horizon regular season title last year before getting crushed by Detroit in the Horizon Tournament Final, but with their top two players and lots of seniors back they are the favorite to take the conference again, and hopefully (for them) not flame out again. And if they make the tournament you'll hear way too much about them because, admittedly, they're kind of an interesting team. The coach is Bryce Drew who hit the second greatest shot in NCAA Tournament history (behind that dude from Northwestern State who hit the shot to knock out Iowa because fuck Iowa). Their best player (and last season's conference player of the year) was a finalist to make the Australian Olympic team. Their second best player has played internationally for both the Canary Islands and the Netherlands. They have a dude from Jamaica. They have guys who transferred from Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Indiana, Hawaii, Cal, South Florida, and Rice. Seriously it's ridiculous. I haven't seen this many transfers since Tark's days at Fresno. Plus they have a guy with the last name Buggs, and since we all know Charles Buggs is going to be a superstar I can only assume the same for a guy who I assume is related.
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys season will basically come down to what kind of changes LeBryan Nash made this offseason. Nash was the team's best player last season, should be again this year, and is probably the best player to suit up for OSU since JamesOn Curry. The bad news, however, is that he shot an appalling 39% including just 24% from three despite jacking up the second most shots on the squad (behind the departed bomber Keiton Page). He balanced out his poor shooting and shot selection by averaging just 1.5 assists per game and getting almost no steals. He's insanely talented and if he can play smarter and maybe hit a jumper here and there these guys should be in line for an NCAA bid. And hey, if everything works out he can become the next JamesOn Curry and enter the NBA draft after his junior year and then fail to get drafted in the first round. It's good to have dreams.
34. Stanford Cardinal. Yes, the dreaded Cardinal. Enders of the Gophers season and world champions of the NIT. And, as we all know, winning the NIT is a strong predictor of future success the following season. I'm just kidding of course, it means exactly jack shit. More than anything it's just says you were a crappy team that couldn't be bothered to get into the NCAA Tournament, and barring a stellar recruiting class coming in you're probably still terrible. And they are. They have a good back court in Chasson Randle and Aaron Bright and some decently experienced guys, but nothing really special. Which is why they're ranked 34th and are incredibly boring. Or maybe they're ranked 34th because they're boring? I don't know. I'm tired and hate Kyle Lohse.
Now that I think about it, Detroit gets to set their rotation with Verlander first and I assume Scherzer second and will have the option to go with JV three times. The Giants will have to go with Lincecum and Zito to start it off and will only get to throw Cain once. I'm thinking we make some money on the Tigers. We goin' Sizzla.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Now that I think about it, Detroit gets to set their rotation with Verlander first and I assume Scherzer second and will have the option to go with JV three times. The Giants will have to go with Lincecum and Zito to start it off and will only get to throw Cain once. I'm thinking we make some money on the Tigers. We goin' Sizzla.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
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