NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East

Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control.  The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State.  Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football.  This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.

At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand.  I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging.  Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way?  I don't know.  It's too confusing.  I think it's time to just to to one big conference.  Easier that way.

1.  UCONN HUSKIES.  How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker?  Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN.  Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2).  Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens.  Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles.  Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.

2. SYRACUSE ORANGE.  God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class.  He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29).  Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more.  The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson.  If they can, this is a national title contender.  If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

3.  LOUISVILLE CARDINALS.  I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one.  I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights.  It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy.  The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.

4.  PITT PANTHERS.  I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only).  They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference.  They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt.  But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year.  Big fan of this kid.

5.  VILLANOVA WILDCATS.  Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye.  The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all.  His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys.  Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career.  I'm so excited.

6.  CINCINNATI BEARCATS.  Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy?  It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year.  Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system.  The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year.  Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor.  So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.

7.  MARQUETTE EAGLES.  Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler.  Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year.  The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns.  Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.

8.  WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS.  Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers.  Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season.  The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone.  Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.

9.  NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH.  Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions.  So basically a lot of guessing.  One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season.  Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y.  Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games.  And god help you if they actually end up good.  God.  Help.  You.

10.  GEORGETOWN HOYAS.  For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play.  Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone.  The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team.  There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn. 

11.  RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS.  Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum.  Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers.  That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey.  If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.

12.  SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS.  You remember Anthony Crater?  The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)?  He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules."  I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh.  Probably because he seemed like such a douche.

13.  SETON HALL PIRATES.  I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall.  Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere.  Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits.  Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane.  More than usual, I mean.

14.  ST. JOHNS RED STORM.   They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country.  There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one).  Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked.  I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.

15.  PROVIDENCE FRIARS.  Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring.  He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker.  I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence.  They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year.  Shrug.

16.  DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS.  Talk about horrible.  I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons.  I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself.  Sure enough, they're 2-52.  And it's not fixing to change.  Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena.  I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess.  I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck.  You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.

Some Tough Bracket Questions

I'm just sitting here, sipping away on some Crown Royal - which I won for free at a raffle while supporting a very worthy cause, so it's win/win - and looking at my bracket picks and there are some really tough questions this year.  So why not share what I'm agonizing over?  Maybe it will give you some insight to pick a better bracket.  Maybe somebody can sway me in the comments section.  Or maybe I'll just come to a better conclusion by typing it all out.  Maybe it will even be entertaining.  Or not.  Whatever, dude it's free so just read it. 

And don't forget to join the DWG bracket pool at this link.  Valuable prizes are there to be won. 


EAST REGION

The top half here is pretty straight forward if you ask me, particularly the 8/9 game between GMU and Nova, where Mason should kill the sliding Wildcats and Ohio State will have little trouble with anybody, including Kentucky.  I think UK was ripe for a first round upset until they were matched against Princeton, who won't be able to remotely keep up with them.  The Princeton offense is cute and can work in some instances, but Kentucky is too athletic and too fast.  It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers keep in close for a half, but Kentucky wins hands down.

The bottom half, however, is a mess for me because both second round games are tough.  Syracuse has been both good and bad this year, however what they've had the most trouble with is teams with good, penetrating guards - which exactly what Xavier bases its offense on, particularly Tu Holloway.  On the other hand, Xavier hasn't beaten anybody out of conference play - look at their schedule, they've missed on every chance to get a good win.  But on the third hand, they did dominate the A-10, for whatever that's worth. 

The other game, UNC vs. Washington, is going to be an absolute circus ball barnburner.  Washington is a much better team than they're 7 seed, but unfortunately when circus ball goes bad it goes bad in a hurry.  Carolina on the other hand snagged a two thanks to a late run through the ACC, but looked pretty bad in their ACC Tournament games.  Is Harrison Barnes about to make the leap on the biggest stage or can Justin Holiday shut him down?  Can Kendall Marshall run with Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas)?  Is Terrence Ross's emergence in the Pac-10 Tournament a real thing or a fluky blip through a mediocre season?  Does Washington have enough skilled bigs to slow down an emerging Tyler Zeller and rebounding machine John Henson?  And can either of them stop Matthew Bryan-Amaning?

That's the game where I'm having the biggest issue, because whoever wins that is my elite 8 team opposite Ohio State.  Putting a seven seed there might be a recipe for disaster, but like I said I don't think Washington is talented like a 7, more like a 3 or 4.  In a wide open tournament they could make a big run.  In any case, that section of the bracket is without question the most talented and hardest to pick.



WEST REGION

One of the toughest first round games here for me in Oakland vs. Texas.  I was convinced I was going to pick Oakland in their first round match up, because their entire season looks like a run-up to a first round upset:  tough non-conference schedule with a bunch of misses, easy run through the conference, an NBA player and another dynamic scorer.  And then they got Texas.  Texas, who on talent should not be a 4, but more like a 3 or even a 2.  Texas, who is equally capable of flaming out and could easily lose not just to Oakland but could even lose to a 16 seed.  I just don't know.  If Texas does get passed Oakland, however, they'll beat both Arizona and Duke.  Book it.

The bottom of the bracket is pretty straight forward other than the Cincy/Mizzou game but who really cares because neither will get through UCONN.  Until the sweet 16 matchup between UCONN and San Diego State, that's about as tough as it gets.  I don't know if I believe in UCONN, despite that run through the Big East Tournament.  Hard to pick against them, though, even if I'm a big SDSU guy.  Either way the winner of that game is your final four team, whether they end up having to beat Duke or Texas.


SOUTHEAST REGION

This is without a doubt the biggest mess of a region, at least for me, because other than Pitt winning this entire region, a lock, I've changed the outcome of basically every other game ten times.  For some reason I'm having trouble picking Belmont over Wisconsin even though my entire plan was to pick Belmont over anybody because they play so similarly.  I also want to pick Utah State over K-State because I think that's a perfect matchup for USU - an undisciplined, mediocrely coached team prone to underachieving - but they haven't beaten anybody this year and I can't stop thinking about how last year's team could keep up with Texas A&M athletically, and this year's team is probably less athletic while K-State is way beyond last year's A&M.

At the bottom here it's stunning that Florida is a two seed, and they could run all the way to the elite 8 or they could get dropped in the first round if their guards aren't shooting well.  St. Johns might be the toughest team but just lost leading rebounder and third leading scorer DJ Kennedy to a knee injury.  Everybody knows about Jimmer and BYU, but what can you expect from a team who just booted their best interior player for getting some stank on his hang down?  Then there's Michigan State who has struggled all year but hell it's Michigan State.  This year's version actually looks worse than ever, but I'm pretty sure we said that last year.  And maybe the year before.  I just don't know.

This whole region is a complete mess for me right now.  The only thing I'm remotely sure of is that Pitt is winning it.  Other than that, anything else could happen.  Hell I could see Gonzaga getting to the elite 8.  And, just to throw a little more confusion your way, Old Dominion is absolutely the worst possible second round matchup for Pitt, and as sure as I sound about Pitt winning it wouldn't remotely surprise me if ODU wins.  Crazy year.


SOUTHWEST REGION

This is the region I'm most confident in.  Kansas is a very good team that's also very vulnerable, but fortunately for them they don't face a team that can beat them until Notre Dame in the elite 8.  Louisville is a good team that will get to sweet 16 and I wanted to pick them to beat the Jayhawks, but they just aren't a good enough team to do it.  I like their guards but neither Knowles or Siva is the type to dominate a game and I don't think they have the interior guys to handle the Morrisisis's, so KU moves on. 

In the bottom half the toughest game to pick is Georgetown vs. Purdue.  The Hoyas were looking very Final Four sleeperish but faded hard once Chris Wright went out with a broken hand.  He's supposed to be back for the tournament (and it's his non-shooting hand) but who knows how it will affect him?  The game is in Chicago as well, which settled the coin flip for me and convinced me to push Purdue through to the Sweet 16.  Not that it really matters, because either team loses to Notre Dame.  Both the Irish and the Jayhawks could have been vulnerable to the right (wrong?) team, but both caught a break and are on a collision course to the Elite 8.  That will be a great game, and I see the Notre Dame pulling it out because Kansas has to choke somewhere. 


I feel better now.  I know what I'm going to do.  Go ahead and prove you're smarter than me.   And forward the link on to as many people as you want.  I'm still going to win.  And then I get to keep all the prizes.

SUCKA MC!

COLLEGE HOOPS PREVIEW: THE BIG EAST

I know, you've been anxiously awaiting the next installment of the college hoops previews since you read the thrilling Big 12 one I put up last week. I also am pretty sure there will be a hockey post up here soon, or at least there is supposed to be, which will no doubt get much more attention than this, but it's my blog so too bad.

The silly Big East has sixteen teams, so I'm not going to spend a whole lot of time on any individual team because I actually do have a job, but here we go.

1. Louisville
It's no secret I'm a big Louisville and Pitino fan, and it's possible I might have a chance to go to a game there this year, but this is not favoritism; the Cardinals are loaded - again. They will miss big guys David Padgett, Derrick Caracter, and Juan Palacios, but an excellent recruiting class combined with returning big time talent will put them in the National Title picture. Earl Clark and Terrence Williams are one of the top 1-2 punches in the nation, Jerry Smith is a deadeye shooter and Edgar Sosa is one of the quickest guards out there. Add in newcomers Samardo Samuels (one of Pitino's highest ranked recruits ever), Terrence Jennings, and transfer Reginald Delk and you have one of the most talented teams in the country.

2. UCONN
It took a while, but the Huskies are most definitely back after that little swoon a couple of years ago. AJ Price is an absolute stud when he's not stealing laptops, but he's coming off knee surgery so hopefully, for UCONN, he's all better and law abiding. Hasheem Thabeet is a more talented version of Roy Hibbert, and he has Jeff Adrien by his side downlow to do the dirty work. Jerome Dyson is a pure scorer, and super talented freshman Kemba Walker should be a star. One time Tubby target Scottie Haralson is here as well.

3. Marquette
Those three ultra talented guards are still around, and for that reason alone I still believe in the Golden Eagles. The frontcourt, for like the billionth year in a row, is a major concern, with only Lazar Hayward a major contributor. Their two top reserves are also guards, and with Trevor Mbakwe all gone and over top the Gophers, who knows what's going to happen, but as long as McNeal, Mathews, and James show up, they'll be a good team.

4. Syracuse
Devendorf and Rautins are back, and they are both very good for a couple of white guards. Devendorf the slasher, Rautins the shooter. Adding them in with Johnny Flynn and Paul Harris is going to make this team very fun to watch. The improvement of Arinze Onuaku last year makes them that much more dangerous. Sure, they lost their leading scorer from last season in Donte Green, but I don't think it will hurt them. Green spend most of his time chucking three pointers instead of venturing anywhere near the paint (a la Rick Rickert). Make no mistake, Paul Harris is an absolute monster.

5. Notre Dame
More like Notre Lame. They have their inside/outside punch back again in Harangody and McAlarney, but the loss of Rob Kurz will hurt. Plenty of other guys back, but the fact that their point guard, Tory Jackson, can't make a free throw is going to be a factor unless he like, learned how to shoot. As an aside, doesn't Harangody look like the dumbest guy you've ever seen?

6. Pitt
I've never liked Pitt, they just bother me for some reason so I always underrate them and I'm probably doing it again but so be it. Sam Young is absolute stud, and Dejuan Blair is pretty solid in the paint. Levance Fields is probably the key, even though he sucks and got hurt again in the offseason.

7. Georgetown
The tradition of studly centers going to the Hoyas continues (Hibbert excepted) as they picked up two great ones in Greg Monroe and Henry Sims, both top 50 freshmen this year with Monroe at #8 according to Rivals. Put them together with the returning players they have back (Jessie Sapp, Austin Freeman, and especially DaJuan Summers) and the Hoyas could easily finish much higher than 7th.

8. Villanova
I'm so tired of the Scottie Reynolds crap already. You know what he does? He shoots. That's it. And he doesn't care where he is or what the game situation is, he just shoots the ball. Over and over. Sometimes they go in and everybody loves him. He's basically a less awesome Chris Kingsbury. Corey Stokes is going to end up being twice the player Reynolds is.

9. Providence
I don't really know what to make of the Friars, mostly because I somehow managed to not watch them play even once last season. My handy magazine assures me that they have four double digit scorers back, so that's good. One of whom is Jeff Xavier, who I know is awesome from his days at Manhattan. Not Luis Flores awesome, but then again, who is? And they have a freshmen guard coming in named Trey, so that's probably a good omen.

10. West Virginia
Losing Joe Alexander and Darris Nichols would usually cause a team to go into rebuilding mode, but this is Bob Huggins here, so you know he's got something up his sleeve. Like, oh, hi Devin Ebanks, the number 11 overall player and #2 small forward. He had committed to Indiana, but when the mess fell apart there was good ole Bobby Huggins to swoop in, probably with a pile of illicit funds. The entire recruiting class was actually very good, no big shocker there. Don't you love how all the West Virginia people were pissy about how Rich Rodriguez jumped to coach at Michigan, when Huggins basically did the same thing to Kansas State?

11. Cincinnati
Deonta Vaughn is really, really good. He's not quite Lazelle Durden level, but he's close. He pretty much had to be a one man show last season, and not much is likely to change this year, although newcomer Yancy Gates is supposed to be pretty good (#22 Rivals), despite having a pretty gay name.

12. Seton Hall
No Shaheen Holloway, no Darius Lane, no Stanley Gaines and no Jamar Nutter. There are a couple of good players here but no standouts. Coach Bobby Gonzalez worked miracles at Manhattan, so give him time. The Pirates will come around.

13. St Johns
Whatever happened to these guys? They've basically completely fallen apart at this point. Anthony Mason Jr. is still here for like his tenth year of eligibility, but after that it's a steep drop off. There are a couple of promising recruits here, but if they don't develop quickly expect a few box and ones.

14. Rutgers
Remember when they had Quincy Douby and nobody was safe going into the RAC? Yeah, that's not really in play anymore. The good news is they aren't losing much, and the really good news is they have a McDonald's All-American coming into to play for them this season. For reals. Guard Mike Rosario is going to be a Scarlet Knight, and they picked up another top 50 player in center Gregory Echenique, so I suppose brighter days are on the horizon.

15. DePaul
Nice arena that's an hour drive from campus and looks like a garbage dumpster. Pretty fitting for this crappy collection of crapitude. They lost probably their two best players, but Will "Wheel" Walker returns with a couple other guys who might not suck too bad. The recruiting class is nothing special. Have fun Krys Faber.

16. South Florida
I went to a game there once and their girls are really pretty. Where's B.B. Walden gone?