Mini-Preview: Gophers vs. Buckeyes

I suppose I should write a preview here.  Can't imagine why, so it'll be short. 

Ohio State is one of the best teams in college ball, but as long as William Buford keeps playing with his head up his rectum and continues to not bring his jump shot to the games they are vulnerable.  The problem is they aren't exactly vulnerable to a team like the Gophers.  Even if Buford fell off the bus getting to the arena and broke his face off and couldn't play they'd still be a prohibitive favorite.  They are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and for an offensively challenged Gopher squad every point is going to be a struggle.  I did read somewhere yesterday that Ohio State's guards and big men struggle with ball screens (I think it was on Grantland.com), but unfortunately the Gophers don't really have the guards to take advantage of that.  Something to keep an eye on, because if the Gophers manage to stay in this one it's going to take having at least one guard (Dre Westbrook?) and at least one forward/center (Rodney?) running the pick-and-roll to near perfection.

Offensively there is also a tiny bit of good news.  The Gophers biggest weakness, as we all know for years and years, has been giving up too many open 3-pointers and Ohio State is a terrible shooting three-point team, especially with Buford apparently shooting left-handed or something.  But that's it for good news.  I have no idea how they're going to handle Sullinger with one guy who is too passive and one guy who is too clumsy and slow.  I fully expect we'll see a large dose of Andre Ingram tonight because Ralph and/or Elliason will be on the shelf with foul trouble.  I do hope Rodney Williams matches straight up with DeShaun Thomas, because I would actually love to see that matchup and see how Rodney fares.

So if the Gophers figure out a way to limit Sullinger, get some offense out of Ralph, Rodney can slow Thomas, and they can use ball screens to get in the lane and get good shots, they can hang.  I'm not expecting any of those things to happen.  I expect to see Aaron Craft and company be all over the Gopher guards in the half-court, causing a turnover-fest, and I expect them to feed Sullinger the ball where he will either score or find an open teammate for a shot when they double him.  Whether or not those shots go down will decide if this is an easy Ohio State win or a complete blow-out.

Ohio State 68, Minnesota 52

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

As a famous computer programmer once said, "Hold on to your butts."

Of course, he also got eaten by a velociraptor, and that's probably a good metaphor for what is likely to happen to the Gophers on Sunday in Columbus, because these guys have stomped on basically everybody, and the Gophers haven't looked good competent since Puerto Rico.  I mean, really.  They have no weaknesses.

Stats wise (via kenpom.com) they are scary.  They are the #2 team in the country (behind Duke).  They have the 3rd most efficient offense (behind Duke and Pitt), and the 2nd most efficient defense (behind Kansas).  They don't turn the ball over (11th) while turning you over constantly (2nd).  They don't let you get to the line (1st), grab a ton of offensive rebounds (24th), while never letting you get an offensive rebound (24th).  They shoot very well (5th in effective FG%), both from 2 (56.2% - 8th) and three (39.9% - 22nd) and share the ball well (54th).  The only weakness you can find in the stats is that they don't get to the line much (269th), and are only slightly above average at shooting free-throws (69.2%).  They aren't the best at defending the three pointer (allow 33.1%, slightly better than the national average), but against a team like the Gophers will only one shooter, that doesn't matter?

So statswise things look bleak for the Gophers, but how about the eye test?  Inside they have the size to deal with the Gophers' big men with Dallas Lauderdale and Jared Sullinger, with Lauderdale bringing the defense, Sullinger the offense, and both grabbing a shit-ton of rebounds.  Lauderdale on his own would give them fits, but Sullinger is just so unbelievably good he could swing the balance of a game on his own.  His stats are very similar to our own Trevor Mbakwe's, and they're built similarly, but the big difference between the two is footwork and technique.  While Mbake's game is almost solely built around his strength and athletic ability, Sullinger has that plus great footwork, which leads to a lot of drop-steps into layups, and the ability to hit a jumper once in a while.  I fully, fully expect this to be Mbakwe's worst statistical game this year, because I expect Sullinger to get him in foul trouble early and keep him there.

If that's not enough, their three wings - William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler - are offensive weapons as well.  Diebler is the best shooter in the Big Ten, not only does he hit a high percentage (51% this year) but he also shoots at a high volume, and because of his height and athleticism (which still isn't great but is better than Hoffarber) he can get open more often, not to mention with all the attentions his teammates take away from him he has more chances to spot up.  Meanwhile Lighty and Buford are essentially two mini-Evan Turners and clones of each other - they do it all.  They can both handle the ball, both can drive, both can score inside, both can shoot from both three and mid-range, and both play excellent defense.  Any team would be lucky to have one of these guys, and the Buckeyes have both.

And just in case you were hoping that their one question mark coming into the season (point guard play) might have developed into a weakness you can forget it.  Freshman Aaron Craft has acclimated himself quickly, ranking third in the Big Ten in assists (4.9 per game) with a 2.5-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and shoots better than 50% from the floor.  Yeah, they're just fine.

And if you're thinking they don't go very deep and only play seven guys so maybe getting somebody into foul trouble would help, you're wrong.  First, as mentioned before, they don't really commit fouls.  Only Buford and Craft have fouled out for OSU this year (once each), and neither Sullinger or Lauderdale have been in foul trouble much if at all.  Second, even if somebody fouls out, they still have all those offensive weapons I mentioned above who can just step in.  Third, I haven't even mentioned DeShaun Thomas, a highly regarded freshman who is averaging 11 points per game in just seventeen minutes and is looking like another Turner/Lighty/Buford type, so him playing more minutes probably isn't necessarily a good thing. 

Lastly, if you're hoping simply to catch the Buckeyes napping and not giving a full effort, Iowa already did that in their last game, leading into the second half, and Ohio State pulled out the win so I wouldn't expect them to come out slowly again, especially since this time they are playing at home.

If this all makes it sound hopeless that's because it is.  The Gopher defense isn't good enough to handle all Ohio State can throw at them, and I can't figure out how the Gophers are going to score any points against one of the toughest defenses in college ball, especially one whose only weakness is three-point shooting, something Minnesota can't exploit.  The first unit may hang in there, but the second unit is going to get absolutely destroyed.

Ohio State 84, Minnesota 58.

Week in Review - 12.13.2010

 So how about those Minnesota Gophers?  The second half, and specifically that huge run to start the half, was great and all, but this team is just flat, man.  Sampson and Mbakwe played well when they go the ball, and Trevor continues to shock me with the things he can do, but this team is certainly in a bit of trouble.  Up just three points at half to Eastern Kentucky?  And that lead was only because Maverick Ahanmisi hit a half-court shot.  Not to mention how much worst it should have/could have been if the Colonels didn't miss a whole ass-ton of wide open three-pointers.

I know Al Nolen is gone, and he's the "glue guy" or the "catalyst" or whatever, but he's not going to be back until something like three weeks into the Big Ten season and if they don't learn to play better without him they're going to dig themselves a nice hole in the standings.  The Big Ten is deep and very good this year, playing like they have the last three games against any Big Ten team, including Iowa, will result in a quick deficit leading to a quick loss.

I won't say they sucked, because they did win and do a nice job in the second half and pounding the ball in the paint, but I can't say they're awesome either because they won a game they should have won by 25 by just 13.  Just two more games to get their shit together before conference play starts and the Gophers travel to Wisconsin and then Michigan State to open.  Right now I don't see any possible way they aren't starting 0-2. 


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Jared Sullinger.  In our Big Ten Fantasy Hoops league, Sullinger went #3 overall to Elk and there was some questioning of the pick by some of the other players.  Although he was putting up good numbers he was outscored in Week 1 by several players who went right after him - Draymond Green, Jon Leuer, Demetri McCamey, etc. which made the pick look even more curious.  But Sullinger turned it on this week with a 40 point, 13 rebound performance against IUPUI and followed it up with "just" 17 and 5 against Western Carolina.  No, the competition wasn't exactly the best, but Sullinger is now 6th in scoring and 2nd in rebounding (to Mbakwe) in the Big 10.  Not bad for a freshman, and not bad for the #3 pick in the fantasy league.

2.  Rick Jackson.  I don't know if you're aware of this but Rick Jackson - the Syracuse power forward - has become an unstoppable monster.  He's like a better version of Trevor Mbakwe - yes, I'm serious.  After putting up a 17 pts./16 reb game against Michigan State during the week he followed it up with an 18 & 10 against Colgate this weekend, and that now gives him 8 double-doubles in the Orange's ten games this year.  With Jackson's development into a stud, Kris Joseph's big-time scoring ability, and solid point play from Scoop Jardine, the Orange are suddenly a contender without having gotten anything from their heralded freshman class.  If those develop as the season goes along, watch out. 

3.  Terrence Jones.  I read somewhere a lot of talk about how this class of Wildcats isn't like the last one, and you shouldn't expect a full-on stripped down roster:  Doron Lamb is almost certainly a 2-year player, Brandon Knight might have to go a second year, etc.  But one player who is basically certain to bolt is Jones, who is basically running circles around every opponent other than North Carolina.  He's had five double-doubles in nine games and has put up some absolutely monster performances including Wednesday against Notre Dame where he put up a 27 point, 17 rebound performance - and that was his second 17-rebound game on the year.  Guy is a beast.  He's also going to be a bust in the NBA.  That's a call, Bert.

4.  Louisville Cardinals.  I don't know exactly how this ended up happening because based on personnel it was looking like a down year in Louisville, but suddenly the Cardinals are 8-0 and extremely relevant after beating an awfully good UNLV team this weekend in Vegas.  Terrence Jennings is finally starting to show some of the Terrence Williams/Earl Clark he was supposed to be, but this is a very balanced team with 9 players who score at least 5.5 points per game and 6 who score at least 8.4, and is led by a dynamic backcourt of Preston Knowles and Peyton Siva.  I don't know if they have enough size to get through in March, but right now kenpom.com has them as the 11th best team in the country and an absolute lockdown defensive squad.  Good back court, balanced scoring, and great defense?  That's basically a blue-print for March success.  Add in Pitino and they could be a nice sleeper team.

5.  Boston College Eagles.  Coming into the year it was supposed to be Duke at the top of the ACC, followed by whoever emerged out of Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, or Florida State, and then a bunch of crap.  While most of the bunch of crap has lived up to it's name, BC has risen to the top and may have had the best week out of anybody this week, beating a pretty good Providence team at home and then going into Maryland and knocking off the Terps.  An embarrassing early loss to Yale has basically been wiped out, because other than those two wins they've also knocked off a bunch of BCS teams - not good BCS teams, but good enough to help out that RPI - Indiana, Cal, Texas A&M (also UMass).  Nice little surprise team here.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Mid-major "dynasties."  If we don't count the Atlantic-10 as a mid-major, and I don't, the two biggest mid-major dynasties are clearly Butler and Gonzaga, and suddenly each of them is facing the prospect of having to win their conference tournament to get into the big dance.  Butler sits at 5-4 and has lost every meaningful game and lost to crappy Evansville.  Gonzaga is 4-5 and in the middle of a three game losing streak, and outside of a win over Marquette they've done nothing, getting crushed by Illinois, Washington State, and Kansas State.  A couple of other really solid mid-majors over the last few years, Siena in the MAAC and Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley, are looking like they can forget at-larges as well.  Siena is now 2-5 with some really, really bad losses (Albany, Princeton) an dis dead in the water, and Northern Iowa is 4-3 with losses to Iowa and Milwaukee.  Basically the first four teams I think of when I think mid-major are all either already out of the running for an at-large or are facing a major uphill battle.  Weird year.  Not counting the A-10, Mountain West, or Memphis, the Colonial might have the three best mid-major teams in the country.

2.  St. Johns Red Storm.  Wow we wow wow.  Well apparently my sleeper Big East squad is more sleepy than sleeper, because they had an absolute brutal week, losing to two A-10 bottom feeders in St. Bonnie's and Fordham this week.  St. Bonnie's is bad, but they are at least a halfway decent squad, but the loss to Fordham is inexcusable.  The Rams are 5-4, but are still one of the worst teams in the country after winning a total of just 5 games the last two years.  In short, these two losses are hugely embarrassing for St. Johns, and they almost kill their post-season chances.  They play in the Big East so they could go on a run and end up in good shape, but losing these two games says pretty definitively that this team sucks way too hard to do that.  I am awesome and picking sleepers.

3.  Pac-10 Contenders.  There are exactly two good teams in the Pac-10:  Washington and Arizona.  Both played road games against decent, but beatable, teams on Saturday with a chance to show how good they really are.  Both failed miserably.   Washington lost by one to Texas A&M and Arizona got crushed by BYU.  This whole demise of the Pac-10 thing is completely out of control.  I think this is year 3 of them sucking it up.  Get your shit together or we're going to have to replace you with the Mountain West.


4.  The Metrodome.  Nice stadium, lol.  Where are we, exactly?  Bratislava?

5.  Kyrie Irving.  I'm not a Duke fan, not remotely, but Irving's injury and possible out-for-the-yearedness really sucks in a lot of ways.  First, he was incredible and fun to watch.  Like a Ty Lawson who could score, and he was only a handful of games into his freshman year and was just getting better.  Seventeen points per game on 53% shooting and 45% from three with 5 assists and 4 boards as well and a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio?  Wow.  And we lose out on a juggernaut Duke team that had a legit shot at going undefeated.  Not that I like Duke, I hate them, but remember how much fun it was rooting against the Patriots their undefeated year?  And how awesome it was when the Giants beat them in the Super Bowl?  We could have had that again in March, but now we will just have to root against Duke with all the regular hate, not super extra hate.  I miss super extra hate.  I wish Favre was still a Packer. 


And about this whole JJ Hardy trade:  I don't get it.  The assumption is that the signing of Nishioka is apparently now imminent, which is fine, but we don't know anything about how his game will transfer.  Ichiro is great, but look at Kaz Matsui - no thanks.  And either way, he can play both middle infield positions, so would you rather roll with a starting tandem of Nishioka and Hardy, or Nishioka and Casilla?  Should be obvious.  With such a pedestrian return for him - two middle reliever prospects of dubious value - this trade doesn't make much sense to me.  I'll let Aaron Gleeman break it down since he does a better job than I and I've already written enough for one day, but Hardy was a valuable piece.  Even if one of the two players they got back becomes a competent reliever that's not as valuable as a quality everyday shortstop.  Not impressed with this off season so far.   Not at all.

2010 Big Ten Recruiting

I'm sitting here being totally awesome and interesting on a Friday night perusing ESPN.com with my exciting life, and I noticed that the ESPN recruiting rankings were updated today.  I have no idea how often they are updated, but it seems a stroke of good fortune that they are hot off the presses.  I might as well share.  Here are your top Big Ten freshmen for 2010 with their overall ESPN ranking:

#2 Jared Sullinger, PF, OHIO STATE - I caught a bit of one of his high school games, he's going to be a superstar from Day 1
#7 Josh Selby, PG, INDIANA (possibly) - if the Hoosiers snag him it will be a big help towards fixing that program
#12 DeShaun Thomas, SF, OHIO STATE - nicknamed "The Diesel", basically a lefty Evan Turner
#21 Cory Joseph, PG, MINNESOTA (possibly) - pleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleaseplease
#23 Jereme Richmond, SF, ILLINOIS - supposed to already be a total lockdown defender at four positions
#24 Adreian Payne, PF, MICH STATE - amazing athlete
#30 Trey Ziegler, SG, MICHIGAN (possibly) - can also play the point
#31 Keith Appling, SG, MICH STATE - scorer
#55 Meyers Leonard, C, ILLINOIS - big dopey white kid
#61 Russell Byrd, SG, MICH STATE - another dopey white kid, but this one is supposed to be an incredible shooter
#72 Crandall Head, SG, ILLINOIS - Luther's brother, same athleticism
#73 Lenzelle Smith, SG, OHIO STATE - combo guard who can shoot, but is a bit of a chunk
#80 Evan Smotrycz, PF, MICHIGAN - no way a white kid with that name ends up being good
#92 Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, MICHIGAN - yes, the son


Geez, this entire list is basically Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois.  I'm more than a bit surprised there is no Purdue on here.  Wow.  And the Gophers really need to get Joseph.  Really, really, really need him.