Gophers vs. Illinois L ive Blog

-11 minutes - So why not drink some booze and live blog, am I right?  Watching the Iowa State vs. Kansas game right now.  Great game. 

-9 minutes - On a scale of 1-think the Big Bang Theory isn't nerdy enough, how nerdy is it that I just watched this:


-7 minutes - So real quick since we have some time let me just mention how ridiculous the Hall of Fame voting crap was this year with nobody getting in.  Are you guys kidding me?  The worst part is you know they think they're taking some kind of stand or making a statement, when in reality they're just being a bunch of pussies.  The worst part?  As pointed out by Loretta8 from Sippin' on Purple - Bonds and Clemens finished with a different amount of votes.  One is the all-time home run leader, the other won 7 Cy Young Awards.  They're both no-brainer first ballot inductees - unless you are against voting in steroid guys (aka completely ignoring the 90s) in which case they both are at the same level of guilt and should both stay out.  One way or the other.  This means somebody voted for one, but not the other guy. Makes zero sense.  They need to revamp the whole system, and I hate saying that because I really don't know how to make it better.  To start, how about kicking out all the idiots. 

-4 minutes - Seriously, even if you don't want to vote in anybody you remotely suspect of steriods (and, by the way, I've never heard Piazza linked to roids) how do you not elect Craig Biggio?  The stats are there and I'm pretty sure nobody suspects him of steroid use.  Or elect Tim Raines for christ's sake.  He's the second best leadoff hitter of all-time.  At some point I may have to do a post on Raines - or at least link to one - because the guy absolutely has the numbers to be in Cooperstown.  And you know he wasn't on steroids because he was too busy being high on cocaine.

-2 minutes - This Iowa State game needs to end before the Gopher game starts.  Hurry up already.

20:00 - A banked in three for Kansas?  You gotta be joshing me.  Welp, on to the Gopher game.

20:00 - Being good kind of sucks.  It was much easier watching these games when I knew they were going to lose. 

20:00 - What's Egwu doing in there, he doesn't even shoot threes?

19:48 - Paul with a very tough three point attempt (and missed).  You can have that all game, guys.

19:04 - Another bad three early in the shot clock.  Please keep doing this, Illini.

17:41 - Illinois doing a good job keeping the Gophers off the offensive glass, which we can tell already because they've missed like, a billion shots already.

16:53 - Announcer guy FYI - D.J. Richardson is not a "sharp shooter."  Gopher offense is so bad right now I'm afraid Tubby might go with the line change offense.

16:18 - Brandon Paul called for the charge after dunking over Mbakwe - announcers don't seem to realize that is, indeed, an offensive foul so who cares about the dunk part.  I feel like these guys might be the death of me.  Gophers down 4-3, but there have been as many shots already as there were in the entire first half of the Northwestern game.

15:44 - Wait a minute.  How can a basket count on a made dunk with a charge called?  By definition the ball was still in Paul's hand, which by definition means the basket doesn't count.  Jesus this is like re-writing the rules of math.  It's not like you can just change PI to be equal to 3.14158.  My god people.

14:29 - Gopher defense has been good, forcing Illinois into tough shots, other than the two dunks that is, and doing a good job on the boards.  Gophers just not converting opportunities except for just now with Coleman on a dunk in transition.  More transition please.

13:25 - Rodney for 3?  I guess if they aren't going to challenge it he's going to have to prove he can hit it.  Big shot as far as rest of the game implications go.

12:12 - Dre hits a three to answer a Richardson three.  Richardson's came early in the shot clock with a hand in his face, Dre's came mid-shot clock and was wide open.  Gophers are going to win this game, you guys.

11:29 - Complete second unit in for the Gophers.  Great.  And Elliason travels 35 feet from the bucket.  I know why he does this, so he can play the good players the entire second half, but I still don't like it.  Gophers down 13-11 right now, let's hope it stays close to that number while these clowns run down the shot clock again and again.

10:18 - Gopher turnover, Illinois three, Gopher turnover.

9:52 - Welch guarding Paul.  God save us all.

9:32 - Offensive foul on Elliason.  That's three straight turnovers by him.  Effing brilliant.

9:00 - Is there anything more terrifying than Maverick in transition?  For Gopher fans, I mean.

7:56 - TV timeout coming with Illinois up 16-15.  Good job by the second unit.  And by good job, I mean good job on defense (for real) with absolutely brutal offense until Mbakwe came in for Elliason, with Trevor scoring all four points.

7:42 - Wow.  Mbakwe with the drive from the top of the key, makes a lefty layup and is fouled.  That was an NBA second round draft pick play right there.  Free throw to tie?  Good.

6:45 - Coleman goes for a monster dunk and gets fouled but it's not called, good job attacking the rim though.  Pretty sure Dan just pulls up for a 16 footer there.

5:47 - Great defensive rotations forcing the Illini into bad shots, leading to transition opportunities leading to back-to-back dunks by Coleman and Mbakwe.  Gophers up four.

4:53 - More bad shots, more transition opportunities, more Gopher dunks.

4:17 - Good one-on-one move by Bertand to hit a jumper, answered by a three-pointer by Austin Hollins off a good pass by Andre in transition.

3:57 - D.J. Richardson has got to be one of the more disappointing big 10 players I can remember.  Tons of fan fare and hype and in four years he's become nothing more than a jump shooter.  Of course, it's tough when you have to play for the worst couch in the world.

2:08 - Illinois getting (and hitting) a shit ton of free throws, keeping this close at 31-27 Gophers.  Illinois just terrible from three right now, but a lot of it is the Gopher defense.  In general the Illini aren't missing open shots, but contested ones.

1:25 - Hollins (Austin) for three, followed by an Illini miss, followed by Andre Ingram throwing a pass into the 8th row.  I really think Andre Ingram is very promising for a sophomore.

0:47 - Paul actually gets an open look and drains it.  Then Ingram travels.  We're going to have to go Iron Five.

0:00 - 34-30 Gophers at the half.  Excellent job.  Gopher defense is playing awesome, and as long as they keep that up and keep getting transition opportunities they're going to win this game.

0:00 - Holy crap the Lakers are a mess.  Spurs up 101-85 with seven minutes left.

19:13 - Illinois still taking dumb shots as Paul goes for the contested running floater (and misses).

18:33 - Paul swatted by Rodney on a contested turnaround jumper, which leads to a wide open three for Austin Hollins (who misses) which leads to an offensive rebound which leads to a lay-up (and foul) for Mbakwe.  Free throw good.  That sequence was a microcosm of this game.

17:53 - Richardson step back 18 footer early in the shot clock.  So dumb.

16:54 - Gopher ball up 39-30.  Looking for a dagger.  Looking at you, Austin.

16:17 - How about a 40 footer with teh shot clock at two that banks in for Dre who I'm not even sure looked at the hoop?  How about that?

14:52 - Illinois with a couple buckets in the paint to cut it to 44-36 Gophers.  I hope they haven't figured out this "get good shots" thing.

14:11 - Another lay-up for Illinois, time-out Gophers.  Gotta keep 'em out of the paint and keep making them take those contested jumpers they love so much.

12:33 - Illini cut it to 2 with like their fourth straight basket in the paint.  I liked it better when they were stupid.  Also Mo Walker in the game is killing everything. 

11:54 - Austin Hollins steal leads to a dunk for Coleman, and then a Dre Hollins steal leads to an intentional foul by Illinois.  Also, I'm having a heart attack.

11:54 - I think I'm supposed to try to be funny but I'm just way too into the game.  If you want to laugh just listen to Nickelback or Coldplay or something.

11:41 - Dre hits both free throws and then nails a three.  Thank god for Dre.  Like Eminem said, you can't forget about Dre.  *streetcred*

11:09 - Shit, Paul into the lane, fouled and hits the shot.  STOP PLAYING SMART ILLINOIS.

10:50 - "Ahanmisi getting ready to check-in."  Cry.

10:28 - Another Illinois lay-up, defense has gone to shit. 

9:38 - Coleman for three?  Great play by Rodney to find him.  And again Illinois gets to the lane and draws a foul.  This needs to stop.

9:12 - Time for Welch to shine here with four fouls on Andre Hollins already.  I'm fine with him on offense, but very scared on defense.

8:38 - Gophers switch to a zone leading to an absolutely terrible three point miss by Paul, leading to a dunk by Rodney and a 58-47 Gopher lead.  I love dumb teams.

7:09 - Paul into the lane and misses when he could have kicked it out to a teammate for an open three, leads to a transition lay-up for Coleman and a 60-49 lead.  I feel like I'm typing the same thing over and over again.  Also fearing this is a pretty worthless live blog for the reader, but what do you care it's saving you from having to think about actually doing work.

6:42 - Bertand goes one-on-one for about 10 dribbles then misses a contested turnaround.  I know I keep pointing it out but I can't get over how dumb this team is. 

5:43 - Could have done without the easy dunk.  On Coleman, naturally.

5:24 - He pays it back by blowing by his defender for a lay-up.  Incredible game for Coleman.

4:45 - Coleman with ANOTHER three.  And Dre Hollins just checked in and picked up his fourth foul, which means earlier when I thought he had four he only had three which means I have no idea why he was ever taken out of the game.

3:33 - Gophers up 13 (another Coleman dunk) and I can still barely breathe.

3:04 - Sloppy turnover.  Oh yeah, that's why.

2:52 - Richardson airballs a three (contested, of course) which reminds me why I probably CAN breathe.

2:30 - I know the game isn't over yet (Gophers up 72-59) but man is this team good.  Their defense is incredible.  Watching their rotations on defense was the most impressive part of the game, and that's a game when Coleman scored 25 (as of now).  Those who didn't watch or didn't pay attention may call this a fluky bad shooting night by the Illini, but the Gophers had everything to do with that.  Then look at the offense where they have five guys who could put up 20 on any given night?  This team is for real, kids. 

1:48 - I can't believe Illinois missed another contested three-pointer, you guys.

1:16 - Brandon Paul lay-up.  Basically uncontested since the Gophers are up by 12 (after that).

0:30 - Coleman playing some serious suckhole, now up to 29 points after a couple easy dunks.

0:09 - Dre with a three as the shot clock winds down becasue why not.  84-67 Final.  Crazy, dudes.  I'll maybe have more on this game tomorrow if I don't get lazy

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois is an awfully tough team to figure out.  On one hand, they're ranked just 34th at kenpom.com using his advanced stats, so you'd tend to think the 14-2 start was a bit fluky and dismiss them as pretenders.  On the other hand, however, they just spanked Ohio State by almost 20 (an overrated Ohio State, but still) and already own a road win at Gonzaga by double digits and a neutral site win over Butler by nearly 20.  Those are not three wins a fluky team should have.  Their losses (to Missouri on a neutral court and @ Purdue) are both acceptable as well.  No clue what to make of these guys.

One thing is for certain, they're already better off than the last several seasons since they finally jettisoned world's worst coach Bruce Weber and, with Tracey Abrams emergence, they actually have a viable point guard for the first time since the good ole days of Chester Frazier.  Perhaps the best thing about Abrams is that he's allowed Brandon Paul to spend more time off the ball where he's more of a natural, and it's showed as Paul has blossomed into maybe the second best scorer in the league behind DeShaun Thomas.  Paul has always had a tendency to fall a bit too in love with the 3 (which seems to be Illinois' mantra this year - more on that in a minute) but can score from anywhere and excels getting to the rim.  His numbers are up across the board this year and is the best perimeter players the Gophers have faced this season.  If Austin Hollins is going to be the defensive stopper we think he is (and I think he is) this is his big test to prove it.

Paul is certainly a concern for the Gophers, but the entire Illinois team is dangerous because they've simply fallen completely in love with the three-pointer.  They shoot an absolute ton of them (43% of their FG attempts come behind the line - 15th in the country) and make a whole bunch (hitting 36% on the year).  For most of the year I figured this was totally a fluke since they were a terrible shooting team last year (just 30% from three, one of the worst marks in the nation) and it's pretty close to the same team.  It's been going on a bit too long to be a total fluke, however, so perhaps there's an alternative explanation.  Much as how a great coach can make his players better, perhaps a horrendous coach can suppress such simple skills as jump shooting.  Much like the West Canaan Coyotes truly blossomed as a team after Coach Bud Kilmer was forced out, perhaps too these Illini merely needed to cast out Bruce Weber to suddenly all become marksmen from deep.

I don't really know the reason, but suddenly all five major contributors have turned into Ray Allen.  Paul has increased a bit but you could attribute that to playing more off the ball and the "senior step up", and D.J. Richardson is actually a little bit worse, but Abrams (from 26% to 32%), Tyler Griffey (from 29% to 41%) and Joseph Bertrand (from 30% to 44%) all made the Moxon leap.  Can they keep this up?  Really, it depends on if you believe in the Varsity Blues theory, and that's also what's going to swing this game.  The Gophers defend the three pretty well, and the other team they played that shot a lot of them at a high percentage (Richmond) they held to 4-20 shooting.

And yet Richmond is not West Canaan (more like Bainville, am I right?), and Illinois is clearly better and almost everything than Richmond.  The Gophers are much better than Illinois in pretty much every way, and the Gophers are going to absolutely destroy them on the boards.  There's no reason for the Gophers to lose this game, except that Illinois' big strength is what they like to call "the great equalizer" (no, not Lincoln).  Illinois is going to shoot a lot of threes, and probably hit a lot of threes.  Can the Gophers limit that?  Can the Gophers grab 75% of their misses (they get 49.7% on the season, Illinois allows 34% - that's really bad) and just keep scoring every trip down the court?  Who wins the turnover battle?

It all comes down to what you believe.  There's the theory that the Gophers are a Final Four team.  Then there's the theory (not directly competing but you know) that Illinois is the Varsity Blues team, and they won the title.  IT ALL COMES DOWN TO WHAT YOU BELIEVE.

Minnesota 73, Illinois 68.

Yep.

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Must win?  Sort of.  The Gophers are at 5-6 in Big Ten play right now, and need to get to at least 9 wins, meaning they need to go 4-3 to close out.  With strong reservations, let's go ahead and give them the home games against Penn State and Michigan as wins.  That means they need to win two out of home games against Illinois and Michigan State and road games at Iowa, Penn State, and Northwestern.  I have no faith in this team to win any of those road games, and at best I see them taking one.  So although this isn't a MUST WIN game, it's certainly a must win game.

Luckily for the Gophers the Illini are on the skids despite an abundance of talent on a paper which, by the way, is not where the games are played.  They pop up very well according to Ken Pomeroy's metrics where they are the 24th best team in offensive efficiency and the 25th best team in defensive efficiency, which leads to them being ranked as the 15th best team in the country, but they sure aren't playing like it, losing 5 of their last 7 including losses to Northwestern, Indiana, and Penn State.

A lot of their issues can be traced to Demetri McCamey, who may be starting to finally prove what I've been saying for years - he's not a real point guard.  BOB COUSY AWARD FINALIST (L-O-freaking-L) McCamey has seen his play really tail off in those last seven games.  He's shooting just 29% in those games after shooting 51% prior to that this season, and is hitting just 35% from beyond the arc where he was at 54%, and has seen his scoring average drop from 16.2 to 11.3 points per game.  His lack of confidence has affected his aggressiveness, and if you take out a bizarre game against Wisconsin where he shot 21 free throws his FTA per game have dipped from 4 per game to 2 per game, including a 3-game stretch where he got to the line just once.  His assists are down from 7.3 to 5.4 per game (3.9 outside the MSU game) while his turnovers are slightly up, and his steals are down about 50% as well.  Simply put, he's a mess.

Such a mess that Brandon Paul has taken over the point guard duties at times towards the end of games, and he's not even a point guard and averages under 2 assists per game.  He's a superb athlete and will probably end up being a damn good, possibly even great, player, but he's a wing - not a point guard.  Unfortunately there are no other options.

It would be a shame if anybody liked Illinois, because there is a lot of talent here.  Jereme Richmond might be the most talented freshman in the conference not named Sullinger or Armelin, D.J. Richardson is starting to come into his own as a gunner, and Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale form a near perfect tandem inside where Davis does all the dirty grunt work while Tisdale minces around about the perimeter knocking down threes and blocking a shot or two with help side defense.  Even that dork Bill Cole can knock down plenty of three-balls if you don't guard him.

There are a lot of tough matchups here for the Gophers, and although I think Davis and Tisdale will struggle against the Gopher bigs I also think the slashing and scoring abilities of Richmond, Richardson, and Paul are going to give Minnesota fits.  Those three can get to the rim and score mid-range, while Richardson and Paul are perimeter threats and all three are superb athletes.  Seriously, you're going to see a lot of what Rodney Williams could/should/would be when you watch those three on Thursday.

However, as we are learning as Gopher fans, it doesn't matter how good the rest of the team is if nobody can get them the ball in the right spots, so much of the Illini success (or lack thereof) falls on McCamey, the "point guard."  And, frankly, if the Gophers simply keep this one close and make it a wire-to-wire, down to the final possession affair odds are he'll shoot himself in the foot.  Look:

2/5 vs. Northwestern:  misses front-end of the 1-and-1 with :07 left.  Turnover with :20 left.  Illinois loses by 1.
1/27 vs. Indiana:  4 second-half turnovers, 0 second-half points.  Illinois loses by 3.
1/22 vs. Ohio State:  bad pass with 0:16 left, although the turnover was given officially to Mike Tisdale.  Scores 2 points in the final 13 minutes.  Illinois loses by 5
1/11 vs. Penn State:  turnover as time expires, Illini don't get a final shot.  Illinois loses by 2.
12/22 vs. Missouri:  down 2 with 1-minute to play, Illinois gets outscored by 9 and loses by 11.  Can't specifically narrow this one to McCamey, but as the PG he gets most of the blame.
12/18 vs. Illinois-Chicago:  down 2, McCamey turns it over with :02 left to play after missing an open three-pointer with :06 left, Illinois's third miss in the final :15.  Lose by 2.

That is a lot of late game meltdowns for a supposed good team.  And if it reads ugly it's even worse watching it.

Talent-level:  advantage goes to Illinois, and both teams are basically head cases, so this one is very tough to call.  The one big thing I keep coming back to is how are the Gophers going to run an offense with their guards going up against the athletic wings Illinois puts out there?  So I figure we're looking at a narrow Illinois win.  But then I realize that Illinois can't win narrowly, because they'll implode if the game is close, and I don't see an Illini blowout, so.....

Minnesota 67, Illinois 64.