Big Ten Basketball Preview: #12 Northwestern Wildcats

Well it was a run.  Northwestern did everything they could do grab that elusive (to them, not to anyone else) first ever NCAA Tournament bid and fell short year after year.  Now there's no John Shurna.  There's no Drew Crawford.  There's no Juice Thompson.  There's no Luka Mirkovic.  There's just Dave Sobolewski and his lesbian haircut.  Well there's also hope because of this new coach guy you maybe heard about, Chris Collins.  Yeah the weiner from Duke.  No not Wojo, he's at Marquette.  The other one, the one with some talent, and he's already making a difference because he signed Vic Law, ESPN's 66th ranked prospect for 2014, as well as a handful of other quality recruits between 2014 and 2015.  This year, however, Northwestern probably isn't looking at that first bid, but they do have enough to remain dangerous.

The biggest reason for this danger is Tre Demps, who is a great chucker (26% of team shots when on the floor despite a 45.7% eFG%) but is also made of stone balls.  Here's what he did in Northwestern's conference wins last season:  Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois.  He's a chucker for sure, and his overall numbers don't make you squeal from last year (11.0ppg, 38% FG) he clearly has an ability to step up in the the big moment.  So, you know, I'd recommend the Gophers don't, you know, let Northwestern hang around until Demps just goes ahead and wins the game for them.

Demps will be joined on the wing by JerShon Cobb, the team's leading returning scorer at 12.2 points per game.  He's more consistent and efficient than Demps, and will likely be their go to guy for the majority of the game until Demps decides he wants to rip some hearts out.  Cobb was a pretty big deal recruit back when, but has had injury problems his whole career including leg problems that shut him down early last season.  If he can stay healthy he has All-Big 10 type talent, as evidenced by his four 20+ point games against quality opponents last season, but that's a big if.

With Demps, Cobb, and Law the Wildcats should be solid and athletic on the wing, which will help their league best defense from last season return, but that's about where the good news ends.  Alex Olah will be the starting center though he's limited on offense and a horrendous rebounder for a 7-footer, though 6-10 transfer from Yale Jeremiah Kreisberg might end up stealing that spot.  It's probably best for Northwestern if he does.  There's decent, if unproven, depth with Sanjay Lumpkin and Nathan Taphorn.  Taphorn should inherit the "wander around and shoot some threes" role from the departed Kale Abrahamson.

Point guard is a real issue, as Dave Sobolewski just fell off a cliff last season, putting up some truly hideous shooting numbers (18% from 3, 26% overall) and putting up the worst turnover and foul rates of his career.  He did suffer a concussion midseason, missing four games in a row and genearlly having trouble getting back into the swing of things, but he was having a rough year prior to that anyway and with Collins playing more man-to-man than Carmody did, Sobolewski's contributions may be limited.  That either means Demps plays more point (super chucker alert!) or freshman Bryant McIntosh takes over.  McIntosh is a fringe top 200 kid, but he should fit in well at Northwestern because he just looks so freaking annoying.  Seriously.

So Punchable.  Plus his name is Bryant McIntosh for pete's sake.

It's an interesting time, and probably a fun one, to be a Northwestern fan as they've managed to take a string of failed seasons and recycle them back into optimism with an exciting new coach who is bringing in a whole slew of new players.  It'll be interesting to see how and if Collins changes the program (and how long he sticks around, if successful).  He seems to be recruiting a more athletic player, so the slow down game may shortly be a thing of the past.  Lotta hope in Evanston, and with good reason, even if everyone still misses Luka.

Other Previews:
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Big Ten Preview - #8 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

Northwestern's outlook actually is pretty rosy this year:  John Shurna is back to look like a total spaz nerd and do a little bit of everything, Drew Crawford now has two years under his belt and should just continue to get better, Luka Mrkovich will once again be the middle moving very little, JerShon Cobb should be a breakout candidate, and most of the little bit parts are here once again as well.

Two problems.

The first being that the major piece that is gone from last season is Michael Thompson who I refuse to call juice, the guy who piloted this team for the last four years - including two of the best in the program's history - and left as the all-time leader in assists for the Wildcats.  That's not easy to replace and I don't know who is going to do it.  Actually I don't think Northwestern knows yet.  Alex Marcotullio is probably first in line, but let's be honest if he wins the job there's no chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament.  If Drew Crawford or JerShon Cobb can't transition from off the ball player to ball-handler the Wildcats will have to hope one of their promising newcomers - guards Tre Demps and David Sobolewski - are good enough to step in right away.  Both are described as combo guards which normally I'd make fun of because there's not a real PG on the roster but the Gophers are basically doing the same thing so who am I to judge?

The second problem is that, even if they work the PG spot out perfectly, I've already fallen for this.  I was convinced last year everything had come together for Northwestern to finally, mercifully, grab that first ever NCAA Tournament bid.  And how I was I rewarded for my faith?  Just like Snape was rewarded by Voldemort - a painful death.  So no, I refuse to buy in.  There's no reason to think they'll be better than last season, last season was supposed to be their perfect storm, and they sucked last season.  Boom.  The end.

DWG Over/Under Conference Wins:  7.5

Big Ten Wrap-up, 11/8/2010

Last week the rest of the Big Ten team's kicked off their exhibition slates (Illinois started the week before) and every team in the conference played a game.  Surprise!  They went 11-0, with only Illinois struggling in their game (and Michigan, but they suck).  It doesn't really tell us much as far as beating up on this level of competition but we can find some player trends that can be interesting.  You can find my thoughts on your beloved Gopher hoopsters here, but there were some interesting developments from other teams:

• Illinois turned the ball over 20 and 23 times in their two exhibition games, leading to smaller than expected winning margins (10 and 9 points).  I expect this to be their achilles heel throughout the year, since they haven't had an actual point guard since Chester Frazier graduated.  And yes, I'm aware Demetri McCamey led the Big Ten in assists last year.  I don't care.  You will never convince me he's an actual point guard. 
• Maurice Creek scored 16 points in 20 minutes during Indiana's win over Franklin College.  It's not so much the dominating inferior competition, as it is coming back from a big time knee injury to take a team-high 14 shots in only 20 minutes that tells me he's being aggressive, which likely means there are no lingering issues.
• I was wondering if Purdue would end up with a third scorer emerging or if it would be a collective Robbie Hummel pick-me-up, and the first game was a collective effort with six guys scoring between six and nine points in their game against Indianapolis (Moore and Johnson led with 11 and 13), including talented freshmen Terone and Anthony Johnson.
• Draymond Green has added the three-point shot to his repertoire.  Last year Green shot just 16 three-pointers all year, making two.  Last week in Michigan State's game against Saginaw Valley State he shot three, making two.  Interesting.  Also if he and Maurice Walker ever guard each other in a game that floor is caving in.
• Jershon Cobb is going to make an impact for Northwestern after starting and scoring 12 points in 21 minutes.  He's a top 150 recruit in the country, I'm assuming the first for the Wildcats, and they're looking to him immediately, which makes me think he's probably as good as advertised.  Adding a fourth scorer makes Northwestern far more dangerous and far more relevant.  
• Tim Hardaway, Jr. is certainly not afraid to shoot, and I'm guessing he's going to kill the Wolverines more than once this year.  Despite shooting 1-7 from three and 2-10 overall he led the team in shot attempts and three-point attempts.  
• John Gasser might be the non-descript, non-heraled white freshman who makes the biggest splash for the Badgers this year.  He led Wisconsin freshmen in minutes (20) and points (9), and fun fact:  he's from Port Washington, Wisconsin, which is where the hit TV show Step-by-Step took place.  I always loved Al.  Once she got old enough, I mean.

• Talor Battle is still not getting any help from his front court.  Their senior starting trio tallied just a combined 18 points against a severly undersized East Stroudsberg team with nobody over 6-6 on the roster.  If Penn State is going to make a surprising run to an NCAA bid, Battle's going to need somebody to help out in the paint.  This doesn't bode well.
• I mentioned in my Big Ten preview that the one big weakness for the Buckeyes could be a point guard, but it perhaps freshman Aaron Craft is up for the task because he notched 8 assists to go along with 12 points in the Ohio State rout of Walsh.  It's also tough to get a true gauge on somebody's value when their team wins 102-56, and Adam Boone once looked like the next Magic in an exhibition game, but this certainly isn't a bad sign for OSU. 
• Iowa is still terrible, even if they did manage to win by 45.  And Eric May will probably have to carry the team.  Have fun with that.

So, you see, there are a few nuggets we can take from these games.  Some may be indicators of the future, while some may not, but what the hell, we're just here chat anyway.

COMING UP THIS WEEK

Illinois gets things rolling in the 2k Sports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, playing UC-Irvine tonight and Toledo on Wednesday as the 2010-2011 College Basketball season gets officially rolling.  Other Big Ten teams play their final exhibition tune-ups during the week before getting things started for real over the weekend, mainly versus cupcake city.  The only two games that could be remotely competitive are the Gophers vs. Wofford and Northwestern vs. Northern Illinois.  Wofford won the Southern Conference last year, almost upset Wisconsin in round 1 of the NCAA Tournament, and return four starters including conference POY (and Minnesota boy) Noah Dahlman.  It should be a good test to see exactly where the Gophers stand this year.  Northwestern vs. NIU is only interesting because it's rare a Big Ten team opens on the road, but the Wildcats should be able to handle them without issue.

AROUND THE NATION  

Still no real games, just a bunch of exhibitions that nobody really reports on unless it's Duke, so no real comments here.  Of note though is the play of Harrison Barnes, a preseason All-American as a freshman.  Let's just say he didn't exactly live up to the hype in his first exhibition game, tallying just .

Coming up, the season gets started for Pitt, Texas, and Maryland early as they join Illinois in the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney and tip-off Monday, with Pitt facing a good tester right out of the box in Rhode Island.  Then everybody gets going over the weekend, with the best games probably Seton Hall @ Temple, Georgetown @ Old Dominion, and Northern Iowa @ Syracuse on Friday, San Diego State @ Long Beach State and Weber State @ Utah State on Saturday, and South Dakota State @ Iowa on Sunday (LOL, at least it should be competitive).

College hoops is here.  It's finally here.

Finally, here are the futures bets I've got for the season. If you can still get any of these teams at anywhere near these odds I would highly recommend jumping on them, although most of them have come considerably down. Because I'm a genius.


TO WIN NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP:
Washington 60-1
Minnesota 150-1
Virginia Tech 200-1
San Diego State 100-1
NC State 200-1
Arizona 100-1
Baylor 30-1

TO WIN CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON TITLE:
Minnesota 12-1 (BIG TEN)
St. Johns 12-1 (BIG EAST)
Missouri 6-1 (BIG 12)

I also kind of like NC State in the ACC at 8-1, but Duke is so loaded this year it's basically throwing money away betting against them.