Week in Review 1.31.2011

 Can somebody please explain to me what is going in college basketball this year?  Michigan State, a final four team last year that lost nothing more than Raymar Morgan and replaced him with more talent, is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament and lost to Michigan for the first time in 23 years, and at home.  Which was Michigan's first road win all year.   Syracuse, who started the season at 18-0, has now lost four straight, which included losses to two other top 10 teams in Pitt and Villanova.  Teams who both lost this week - Villanova twice.  Duke, who looked nearly unstoppable most of the year, lost to St. Johns, the same team that lost to both St. Bonaventure and Fordham.  BYU gave San Diego State it's first loss on the year, and then turned around and got beat by New Mexico, Texas A&M lost to lowly Nebraska, and UCONN completely blew a home game they had in hand against Louisville.  Two of the top five, 3 of the top 10, and 5 of the top 15 teams in the preseason poll aren't even ranked right now.  It's insane.  I know it's great for a fun season and an even better NCAA Tournament, but it's been hell on my bank account so let's just knock this crap off.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  St. Johns Red Storm.   If ever a team could have used a win like this it's St. Johns, and beating Duke by 15 is an awfully nice chip to have in your pocket when March rolls around.  They're in good shape RPI-wise thanks to a very tough strength of schedule, and a 4-5 Big East is probably ok, but this game gives them a huge marquee win and stops a three-game skid, not to mention the shot of confidence they probably get considering they just completely blew the doors off the Blue Devils.  The schedule gets easier going forward here, so you can expect to see the Red Storm with a bid for the NCAA Tournament.  Which is what I called, way back in October.  Seriously, sometimes it's hard being so smart.

2.  Penn State Nittany Lions. You gotta admit, they're doing what they can.  It's an uphill climb considering they're just 12-8 and missed every chance to get a quality non-conference win, but they're now 5-4 in a good Big Ten, the RPI is moving up (now #45), the strength of schedule is good (#6), the win over Duquesne is looking better and better, and, even if Michigan State is free-falling, the wins over Illinois and Wisconsin will hold up nicely.  Talor Battle is getting help from PSU's trio of senior forwards - David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and especially Jeff Brooks - and that makes this team very dangerous.  Their home court advantage has been quite strong this year, if they can steal a game or two on the road they'll be in the big dance.

3.  Duquesne Dukes.  At the beginning of the year, the Atlantic 10 was supposed to be very strong at the top with Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and Richmond, and the rest of the schools kind of blah.  Three of the four have been good, but Dayton has sucked (which they deserve) and Duquesne has not only snuck into their spot, but might be the best team in the conference.  They beat Temple earlier this year, and after shellacking Dayton on Saturday are now 7-0 in conference play and tied with Xavier at the top.  The schedule is favorable, with Xavier still to come at home and both Dayton and Richmond on the road, but everything else is against pretty bad squads.  I don't know if they can get an at-large - the RPI sits at #89 despite the gaudy record, but it would be a shame if they fall short because this is a really fun team to watch.  Or at least it was fun watching them destroy the most hated team in the country.  I'm referring to Dayton and it's dirty hippie fans.

4.  Darius Morris.  I said he's the best point guard in the country and he really helps bolster my argument when he does things like he did against Iowa on Sunday:  12 pts, 11 assists, 10 rebounds for just the third triple-double in Michigan history (Manny Harris, Gary Grant).  Considering Kalin Lucas and Talor Battle are not point guards, and I have no idea what McCamey is but he sure as hell isn't a PG (more later), that leaves Morris up against Jordan Taylor, Michael Thompson, Al Nolen, Bryce Cartwright, Aaron Craft, Lewis Jackson, and Jordan Hulls.  Not a bad group, and Craft might end up the best of the bunch eventually, but I'd take Morris for sure over every other one of those guys except maybe Jordan Taylor.  That one would be close, but if you need a pure distributor Morris is your man.  If you need more scoring go with Taylor.  Or roofies.

5.  Georgetown Hoyas.  I'm not sure if there's a tougher team to figure out than the Hoyas.  They're clearly good, but are they GOOD or just good?  They have three awesome guards and a suspect interior, so are they are March sleeper because of their guard play or a March quick out because of a weak interior?  I don't know either, but they are looking like they might be hitting their stride, so if you want to jump on the wagon I'd do it now.  Their win over St. Johns was expected, but doing it by 25 was not, and then going to Villanova and knocking off the #7 Wildcats wasn't.  Austin Freeman is a stone cold pimp (scored 10 of G-Town's last 12 against Nova, and assisted on the other 2), Jason Clark is a dead-eye from deep, and Chris Wright just makes it all happen.  If they get anything from their post guys they're a final four team.  Although they could also go out in the first round.  Just like every other god damn team in this crazy stupid year.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Syracuse Orange.  First their defense was exploited on the road at Pitt, then Villanova shot the lights out to beat them in Syracuse, then they were shredded by Seton Hall - in Syracuse - and followed that up by dropping yet another game to Marquette.  So that makes four straight losses piggybacking their 18-0 start.  Three of the four losses are explainable, even if the home loss to Nova is unfortunate, but that loss at home to Seton Hall is troubling and rather inexplicable - especially since they lost by 22.  The Hall had only two prior conference wins, over bottom feeders DePaul and South Florida, but they roll into the Carrier Dome and run the Orange out of it.  Here's what I think happened - Pitt exploited the zone and showed how athletic guards with some size could dribble-penetrate into the gaps and either score or find open teammates and everybody else has copied them.  Each team they've lost to on this skid has guards who can do just that.  They're done.  Cooked.  Over.

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  Well you knew this was coming, and these guys are just a mess.  A home loss to Michigan and an comeback overtime one-point win against Indiana, also at home, say that this isn't a team that's starting slowly and will peak in March.  No, this is more like a team that sucks and will be lucky to sniff the NCAA tournament, let alone peak during it.  Suddenly, despite being nearly the same team that made the Final Four last year, they're turning the ball over like crazy and playing nearly zero defense - not a great combination.  Their strength of schedule is good, which will keep them in the postseason picture if they can turn it around or at least play like an average team, but it's looking less and less likely that it's even a possibility.  If Wisconsin doesn't implode late in the game in East Lansing, Jeremiah Rivers doesn't miss free throws down the stretch, and Northwestern doesn't blow a lead with 30 seconds to play, the Spartans are 2-7 and in 10th place.  I know that's a lot of IFs, but it just underscores how awful they've been.  And I really don't have a clue why.

3.  Demetri McCamey. I've said it a million times, but I'll say it again:  Demetri McCamey is not a point guard and Illinois will not win their first round NCAA game with him running the show.  He proved me right yet again in the Illini's awful loss @ Indiana this week - Indiana's first win over a ranked team in their last 20 tries.  McCamey's line:  6 points on 2-11 shooting (2-7 from three, nice job getting in the lane, guy), with 3 assists and 5 turnovers.  Even worse, down the stretch Illinois had Brandon Paul running the point, who isn't a point guard either.  Trust me you guys, I know the numbers look like something a good PG would put up (15 pts and 7 assists per game), but just watch him.  Or watch Illinois in any late game situation, several of which they've screwed up already this year.  He's awful.  Please, I beg you, pick against them in round 1 of the tournament.  It's a lock. 

4.  Butler Bulldogs.  I'm actually really sick of writing about Butler, but they keep showing up here because they are a huge disappointment and they suck.  This week they did an absolute awesome job of making sure they don't get an at-large bid, losing to both Milwaukee (at home) and Valparaiso (on the road), dropping their Horizon record to 6-4, overall record to 14-8, and chances of getting an at-large to about 1.4%.  Of course, I'm sure they'll win their conference tournament and sneak in, and everybody will think they are a trendy upset pick, but you'll know they suck and pick against them.  I swear to god if there's a first round Butler/Illinois matchup I'm going to the light something on fire.

5.  The Coreys.  No, not Haim and Feldman.  Those guys rocked in everything, even Dream a Little Dream and that Lost Boys movie with that hot chick from the final season of the O.C. (pictured).  I mean the stupid fake Coreys from Villanova, who are less irritating than Scottie Reynolds but still make me want to punch my own nuts with a pepper grinder.  Villanova had a rough week, losing to Providence on the road and then at home to Georgetown, dropping them to 5-3 in the Big East, and fake Corey Haim and fake Corey Feldman didn't help.  Corey Fisher (Feldman) shot 7-20 in the two games, while Corey Stokes (Haim), whose only identifiable skill is scoring (shooting heroin) went 4-23 (Four.  For. Twenty.  Three) and registered four turnovers against just one assist.  Those two aren't the only reason they went 0-2 this week, because the whole team sucked outside of Maalik Wayns (who we'll call Nicole Eggert), but the Corey's are what make this team go.  Just like grandpa's cadillac.  Probably end up about the same, too.

Oh, and I missed the second half of the Gopher game because I was at a kids' birthday party, so my thoughts on that are:  did you really expect them to win @ Purdue?  Just worry about the games they could/should win.  Let's just win in Bloomington here, mmmmkay?  This one is terrifying.

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines

To be simplistic, there are four types of games in Big Ten play:  Home against good teams, home against bad teams, away vs. good teams, and away vs. bad teams.  We know how the Gophers play on the road against good teams (hard fought games, but unable to break through) and how they play home against bad teams (ugly wins).  We just saw them play a home game against a good team and they played great.  Now, on Saturday, we get to learn how they play on the road against bad teams when they travel to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan.

While all games are important in the Big Ten, the road games against bad teams may very well be the most important ones to walk away from with a W, because although a road win at Michigan or similar team certainly won't get you into the tournament, lose too many of these and you rack up too many tallies under the "bad loss" column and that can definitely keep you out.  Everybody is going to lose their road games, and probably a home game or two, against the top of the conference - that's unavoidable.  It is imperative to take care of business against lesser foes so that loss total doesn't rise high enough to raise questions.

That's not to say beating Michigan should be a cakewalk, because they are tough and they have dominated the Gophers recently.  They've beaten the Gophers four games in a row including an embarrassing loss in Ann Arbor at the end of last year where Michigan just destroyed them 83-55, a loss which likely knocked Minnesota out of the NCAA Tournament until they played their way back in with a nice run in the B10 tourney.

This year's version of the Wolverines may be a better team, but it's hard to tell.  One thing's for certain - they have the capacity to play with anybody.  They've played three of the best teams in the land this year in Syracuse, Kansas, and Ohio State and walked away with a 3-point loss, and overtime loss, and a 4-point loss so they're dangerous at any time.  They did, however, recently get blown out @ Indiana in a game where they shot just 36% and are in the midst of a four-game losing streak, so they can also lose to anybody at any time.

Which team shows up on Saturday?  Well, seeing is how they are at home and likely licking their chops to get at a team they've owned, I'd say the good version, and there's enough talent here to see them to the win.

Their best player by far is sophomore Darius Morris who is leads the team in both scoring (15.7 per game) and assists (7.1, 2nd in the country and 5th in the nation), and he's the best point guard in the entire Big Ten (McCamey -> suck it).  Which is why it is going to sound weird when I say not to worry about him.  Not because he's not good, it's because he is so good, and incredibly consistent.  Essentially no matter what the Gophers do, he's going to score his 15-20 points and dish out 5-9 assists.  It's pretty much like clockwork, so instead of worrying about him, worry about his crappy teammates.  None of them are particularly good, but a bunch of them can do just enough well that if a couple of them have good games it could push the Wolverines to a win.

Shooting guard Tim Hardaway is the second leading scorer at 11 per game, mainly because he never stops shooting.  He's an absolute chucker who is fifth in the conference in 3-point attempts despite having hit just 27% of them this year.  But, like all chuckers he can get hot, which he's done a few times this year, scoring 19 points or more in a game three times including vs. Kansas.

Zack Novak is another guy who loves the three, but he's a bit more selective with his shot (36%).  He's also a good rebounder for his size (6.5 per game at 6-4) and can score in the lane.  Even though he looks like your average dork you'd see at the YMCA hoopin' it up, he's actually pretty athletic, has a good shot, and can control a game at times.  He's registered three double-double this year, all against non-cupcakes:  Kansas, Harvard, and Oakland.

Power forward Jordan Morgan is a beast at 6-8, 240 lbs. and is one of the best rebounders in the conference on a per-minute basis, averaging 6.1 rebounds per game in just 23 minutes.  He's not generally a big fan of scoring, but nonetheless like everybody else on this team he's had his moments, notching 20 points twice.

Stu Douglass is another guard, a junior who has basically been a disappointment in his three years at Michigan.  He's not a distributor at all, and isn't much of a scorer, so he mainly just stands around and shoots the occasional three.  Of course, he's had his big nights as well, hitting at least three 3-pointers five different times this year, and put up 17 points in their last game against Northwestern.

Evan Smotrycz is basically Jon Beilein's wet dream of a player:  white, tall, loves the cock three-pointer.  He's hit double figures in scoring twice this year, and interestingly his two best output games were against Clemson and Ohio State, so he doesn't shrink from good competition.  Not that that's what he'll see when the Gophers are in town.

Jon Horford is also worth mentioning - yes he's Al's brother - because against the Gophers he'll probably exceed his season average of 8.7 minutes because they'll need his size out there (he's 6-9, 220).  He obviously doesn't get much time, but when he's given a chance he produces.  In the three games he's been given at least 15 minutes of playing time (never more than 17) he's averaged 6 points and, impressively, 7 rebounds.  If I was a Michigan fan I'd kill myself, but before I did that I'd be excited to see him play since he'll probably break that season high 17 minutes.  Could be Horford's breakout game.  You heard it here first.

So basically just let Morris do what Morris do, but limit all these other dorks.  None of them are particularly imposing or terrifying in any way, but if more than 1 of them are on it's going to be a long night.  The Gophers shouldn't have any particularly problems with Michigan's defense, but on the other end they're going to have to defend the three-point line like crazy.  Michigan doesn't turn the ball over much (24th in the country in TO %) so they're going to get their shots, and they love the three-ball (8th in the country in 3-pt attempts per FG attempt).  Morris, Hardaway, Novak, Douglass, Smotrycz, and Matt Vogrich all like the shoot the three.  If they're open, they'll make 'em.

The Gophers should win this game on talent, but talent doesn't always win out.  On the road against a team who shoots a ton of three-pointers when they can't defend the three and a team that has won 4 in a row against them and completely owned them lately when this could easily be a let-down game for Minnesota and is basically a desperation must win for Michigan?  Tell me how that sounds like a Gopher win?

Michigan 74, Minnesota 68.

 
Nice glasses.