Showing posts with label shaun marcum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shaun marcum. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

North Correia: A Free Agency Story

The MLB Winter Meetings have ended.  There were a lot of moves made and our Twins were in thick of it by making trades and offers to free agent pitchers for them to turn down.  Then, the totally thinkable happened: an average to below average starting pitcher that literally never misses bats (well, 5.7% of the time he does) signed a two year deal.  Welcome to the North, Correia!

DWG already covered Corriea briefly in his live blog of last night's Gophers/Bison tilt, but it probably should be mentioned again that this wasn't what we were looking for as a first splash in free agency.  Jon Marthaler of Twinkietown is apoplectic about the signing and rightfully so.  The worst part about this is that it's $5MM per year that can't be given to someone else.  As the Twins repeat their mantra of being small budget and having limited money to spend over and over, you'd think they'd be a little more wise and a lot more patient with it.  If someone scoops you at this point in the off-season on Correia, you wish the poor bastards luck and trot out Sammy Deduno instead.  Another thing about Correia is he's not exactly some big-time workhorse.  He's never logged 200 innings, coming closest in 2009 at 198.  He's averaged 157 innings pitched over the past 3 seasons.  Correia throws a 4-seamer 25% of the time at 90 mph, a 2 seamer 21% at 90.6 mph, a slider 24% at 87 mph, a curve 12% at 77 mph and a change 13% at 86mph. You can see that his mix doesn't vary speeds much, so he has to rely on location and movement to be effective.  According to Fangraphs.com his only pitch that was plus from an average runs allowed perspective was the changeup.


Pass the tobacky.

The best part about watching the winter meetings is watching the interviews.  Seeing Charlie Manuel in a suit trying to act like a regular human that doesn't wear leggings and a windbreaker to work was great.  The interview I saw was a day or two before the Revere trade and you could tell he knew it was happening.  They asked him about their hole in center field and he said they were focusing on getting a defensive presence out there.  Manuel was curmudgeonly and loveable.  You know he threw some Red Man in after the interview to take the edge off.

The Terry Ryan interview on MLB network that occurred just after the two trades was also great.  Terry Ryan looks like a turtle.  An angry, angry turtle.  I should have recorded it because I can't find it online.  Essentially, he said what we've all been thinking and saying for the last year or two.  The Twins have some depth in the outfield and are sorely in need of pitching.  He went on to mention that they've had a number of offers out to pitchers but they couldn't give away the money. Sadly, now we know he did give some cash away to Correia.  After seeing this interview it makes me lean even more towards thinking this was a panic move.

Also of note was that he listed Hicks, Benson and Mastroianni in that order when asked how they'll fill centerfield.  Spring training will be interesting from this standpoint as a stand out performance could land any of the three the job.  I suspect we'll see Mastroianni there to start and as DWG pointed out, he was at least somewhat useful in under 200 ABs last season.  Hicks, 23, had a lot of success last season in AA.  He's a good defender in centerfield with a big arm.  He has power and speed on the basepaths.  His strikeouts are a tad high, but he also walks at a good rate, so he projects to a top of the order type.  Benson was injured much of last year with the dreaded hamate bone injury (that's the tiny bone at the base of the ring finger in the palm of your hand where hitters often hold the knob of the bat).  He also had a knee cleanup in August.  He hit like crap, but I'm willing to give him a pass due to injury issues.  He's 25 in March, so it's possible he makes the team as a reserve outfielder with Mastroianni starting and Hicks in AAA at the beginning at least.  Then when they suck and Hicks is tearing up AAA, they can make a move.

Hamate
 
Ryan also indicated that they are probably done subtracting for the time being and would prefer to add via free agency rather than trade.  He indicated that he thought the team could compete as-is and when asked about starting pitching he mentioned Worley, Diamond and Liam Hendriks.  He also said they have guys like Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing as depth.  At which point I yelled "Oh, come on!" at the tv. This was of course before we got the Correian Barbeque.  Your Twins rotation right now looks something like this:

THE PAIN

#4a Scott Diamond
#4b Vance Worley
#5a Liam Hendriks
#5b Kevin Correia
And then the clusterflap for the last spot: Kyle Gibson, Cole DeVries, Nick freaking Blackburn and Sammy Deduno.

If Gibson starts in AAA there's a legit chance that with Gibson, Meyer and May the Rochester Redwings will have a better staff than the Twins.  The hope is of course that there's one more signing coming in for the Twins.  They still have some money under their self-imposed cap, so they just need to get some sucker to agree to sign on the dotted line.

Starters that are still out there:

Shaun Marcum is still kicking around.  He doesn't throw hard and is kind of old (31 in two days), so maybe the Twins have interest.  He's a better pitcher than Correia, but that likely means he'd cost more too.  He's the chick at the bar that used to be pretty hot, and is probably still worth a roll.

Ryan Dempster is also out there and rumors indicate the Twins made an offer.  He's already declined a two year/$25 million offer from the Red Sox because his old ass wants a three year deal.  He's 36 in March and definitely on the decline, so if he's asking that much it's a definite no-go.  Similar to Marcum, he's an older chick at the dive bar that really isn't all that hot but has big boobs at least.

Edwin Jackson is still out there!  He still wants a multi-year deal and I'd still give it to him.  (just like last year)  He had probably his best year yet last season for the Nats when they gave him a one year, $12MM deal.  He is reported to want a 4 or 5 year deal, probably in the 50-60MM range.  Big bucks and we hate that.  The dream scenario here is that Edwin hangs around until the zero hour and is forced to make bad decisions like he's at the bar until close and all of the cool franchises have already left with their pitchers and the Twins have been bellied up to the bar all night making kissy faces at him and he just goes for it. 

Jair Jurrjens is available and has a fun name.  The Twins reportedly are after him as well.  He's just 26, but is coming off a brutal, Blackburnesque season.  He is a former all-star though and could be a cheap, short term signing.  He's the newly single chick at the bar that kind of let herself go because she was depressed and stuff, but now she's got a gym member ship and stuff and who knows what could happen?

Brett Myers is crazy and seems to just be drawing interest from the Orioles and Twins for the most part.  He's the crazy chick that bites and scratches but mostly in a fun way.

Joe Saunders...made an offer already, meh.  Lefty and still better than Corriea.  He's the chick with the lazy eye.

Frankie Liriano also already offered.  WTF?  I think any other team in the league would be a better fit.  I mean, how many chances does he need to prove he can't turn it aroun in Minnesota?  He's the on again, off again girlfriend that cheats on you all of the time.

LOL Brett Myers



Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Ponder Apology and Other Stuff

Listen up, buddy

 Ponder Apology

I think it's time I issued Christian Ponder an apology.  I watched quite a bit of Ponder when he played at Florida State and I often felt that despite being surrounded by talent, Ponder failed to live up to expectations.  He threw for 49 TDs and 30 INTs and averaged about 2200 passing yards during his 3 years as a starter.  His arm wasn't much in doubt in college, but his decision making and accuracy were.

Fast forward to the Vikings taking him 12th and Ponder starting at QB for 11 games of the 2011 season.  Again I found Ponder largely unimpressive.  Occasionally he'd make some plays, but so did Trent Dilfer.  My opinion going into this season was that Ponder's upside is a middle of the road NFL quarterback.

Ponder, I'm sorry.  I had no idea that you'd come into 2012 looking like a right-handed Steve Young.  You're completion percentage this year is 15% higher than anything you did in college or last  year.  Incredible!  Ponder did throw his first two INTs of the year against the Titans, but I think he was just bored.  Some credit has to go to the offensive line and the play-calling.  The bottom line though is with time and opportunity, Ponder has taken advantage and made some great throws.  Keep up the good work, it's fun to watch.


Ced, no!

 Gophers Owe Me an Apology

Two Saturday's back the Gophers went into Iowa with a 4-0 record and got mutilated by the hated Hawkeyes.  They came in with a number of injuries;  Gray, O-line, the secondary...  This didn't help, but I also thought the play-calling was a little wonky.  It's ok to predictable when your line and quarterback can flat run the defense over, but this offense did not seem to cater too well to our personnel.  Again, maybe this was due to injury.  Shortell missed a number of throws that I'm sure he'd love to get back and our white speed receivers had some opportunities to bail him out and they couldn't come up with the big plays.  Even worse was the defense.  The Gophers D was putrid against the run and the pass.  Ced Thompson got absolutely murdered several times in the secondary.  What's even worse though is we didn't have injuries to our DEs and OLBs and they were getting killed against runs on the edge.  Much credit has to go to the Iowa offensive line, but you can guarantee the rest of the B1G took notice and we'll see a lot of runs attacking our ends and OLBs.  
All 6'7" of Ted "The Mad Stork" Hendricks

Mega Linebacker

Over the last 10-15 years we've seen a greater prevalence of the big, play-making tight end in the NFL.  There used to be the occasional Shannon Sharpe or Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, but now the league is filled with these guys.  They're generally massive and athletic.  Most of the time, NFL defensive coordinators defend these guys by roughing them up with linebackers and keeping some safety coverage over the top.  This isn't working though, and I'd contend it's because most of the time the LBs and Safeties are not tall enough to compete with these passes.  Last year, 5 of the NFL's leaders in receptions were tight ends.

Why isn't there a position to cover these guys?  Many times, a big, athletic wide receiver will convert to cornerback or safety because he's not cut out to be a wide-out or he's just more suited for the defensive side of the ball.  This should also be happening with tight-ends.  There should be a mega linebacker position that is big and fast enough to hang with these tight ends.  Mega-LB, think about it... the time has come.

That's not how you hang yourself, Gardy.

Did the Twins Play a Season?

It seems like just yesterday I was mildly disinterested in whether our Twins could win 65 games or not.  Now it's all over.  You can always tell it's all over when you receive your annual Twins management apology email.  You know the one, where they promise to work hard all off-season and bring it all together next year.  Oh, and by the way, season tickets are available, you guys!

Sadly, the Twins are in danger of being this poopy for several years.  They have no pitching.  None.  Look at DWGs post about their pitching.  Brutal.  Their other big problem is that they have set their "budget" at a point that doesn't allow the opportunity to take any big chances in free agency.  Look, they might scrape by with the offense the way it is and there really isn't much in free agency there anyway unless they're signing Josh Hamilton (they're not).  They positively cannot scrape by with that pitching staff though.  And there are several middling, not too old, starting pitchers that will be free agents, but you're going to have to give them 3+ years and maybe $7-10MM per year.  The Twins should get at least 2, if not 3 of those guys.  Losing Pavano would free up a lot of that money.  Pavano now throws 84, he's done.  Here are a few starting pitching free agents I'd take a long look at if the purse strings were opened just a little bit:

Edwin Jackson (29) $11mm - Last off-season I was saying the Twins should give Edwin 4 years and $40MM and see what happens. He had a very nice year for the Nats despite ending up with a 10-11 record.  He lowered his walk rate significantly and ended up with a 1.22 WHIP, which rules.  Apparently last year Boras was looking for $12 a year for Edwin, again if I could do 4/40 I would.  His average season over the last 3 years has been: 207 IP, 3.94 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, but a lot of his numbers continue to trend in the right direction.

Brandon McCarthy (29) $4.275 - McCarthy had an unlucky 2012, first with shoulder trouble and then being hit in the head by an Erick Aybar liner.  There is supposedly a chance of Brandon returning for the A's in the playoffs, but they're likely out the door before that comes to fruition.  Unlike Blackburn, McCarthy is a sinkerballer that actually keeps the ball down and is effective.  Since coming to Oakland from Texas he's had an ERA in the low 3s and a miniscule WHIP.  He doesn't miss a lot of bats.  The head injury could possibly get you a discount on McCarthy. 

Shaun Marcum (31) $7.725 - Marcum is damn near a 31 year old Pavano clone.  Doesn't walk anyone, 1.22 career WHIP, no fastball at all, workhorsey.  He kind of broke down last year, but if healthy he's the type of dude the Twins love.  He has much success with a good change-up and a solid slider.  2-3 year deal in the $7-8MM range probably gets him.

Anibal Sanchez (29) $8MM - Sanchez put together two and a half solid seasons with Miami before being moved to Detroit. Sanchez has a very effective change-up as well, with a fastball in the low 90s.

Kevin Correia (32) $4MM in 2012 - Correia throws around 90mph, which the Twins would love.  He sports a career 1.37 WHIP and is coming off one of his best seasons where he only threw 171IP and had a 4.21 ERA.  He's on the cheap side of middle rotation filler guys.  Maybe 2-3 years at $4-5MM a season would do it.  He could also be a 1 year contract type depending on the market.

Jorge De La Rosa (32) $10.75MM - De La Rosa only had 3 (bad) starts this year as he was coming off of arm Tommy John in May 2011.  He has an $11MM option for 2013 that the Rockies are unlikely to take, imo.  Before arm surgery, the lefty was around 93mph and was sort of a late bloomer, winning 16 games in '09.  Despite doing next to nothing for the better part of two years, I suspect a 3yr/25MM deal would be the neighborhood you'd have to be in to get Jorge.


Other jerks that would probably be a top 3 starter for the Twins: Derek Lowe (40), Jonathan Sanchez (30), Scott Feldman (30), Erik Bedard (34), Hiroki Kuroda (38), Kyle Lohse (oh god, 34), Ryan Dempster (36), Carlos Villanueva (29)

Cold MN might make Amanda McCarthy sad. :(