Twins Prospect Update

With the Twins having been completely out of it since the second week of the season your thoughts end up turning to the future.  Then, when you realize all those guys suck too, you dig a little deeper into the younger prospects.  With that in mind, here are the first 10 guys I thought of to check on in the Twins' system.  They might not be the top 10 guys, but they're all definitely guys who, at one point or another, were well thought of in the system and most still all are.  I didn't look up Alex Wimmers because he blew out his arm and is thus dead to me because, much like the Twins' brass, I don't believe in that sissy shit like surgery.  If it can't be fixed with spit, dirt, or leeches then I'm not interested.

Twins training staff in action

1.  Miguel Sano, 3B, Beloit (A).  You probably know who this guy is because he's universally hailed as the Twins top prospect with Baseball America ranking him #18 in all of baseball and ESPN slotting him at #28.  And in a season full of disappointment, Sano has delivered once again with a .262/.382/.526 line with 25 dingers in single-A.  His average and power have dipped a bit from previous years and the .262 might not look that impressive, but considering he's only 19 (or so they say) it's nothing to get too worked up about especially considering his incredible power and plate discipline for that age.  He may end up out-growing 3B and end up at 1B or OF, but wherever he plays he can hit.  Plus he's built like an absolute monster.  I seriously can't wait for this guy to get to the bigs.  I might just get a Beloit jersey.  Also this,

Sano stood in the batter's box awhile to watch his homer against relief pitcher Carmine Giardiana. He trotted the bases, but virtually stopped a few feet before touching the plate, taking off his batting helmet as Kernels catcher Abel Baker barked at him.
Sano glared at the Kernels dugout after finally touching the plate, with Kernels players continuing to give him significant grief. He took a step toward Baker, and the dugouts began to empty, with umpires Fernando Rodriguez and Paul Clemons, as well as both teams' coaching staffs, doing a good job of squelching what could have been an ugly scene.

2.  Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Beloit (A).  Sano's teammate with the Snappers, Rosario also saw his numbers dip a bit with the promotion to A ball but also like Sano he's young (20) and the change isn't so drastic there's need to worry.  He's still hitting over .300 this year and although his slugging has dropped from high .600s to around .500 this season that's from a drop in homers as his doubles remain around the same.  Additionally, the move this year to second base means his offense is less important as long as he can field his position, so keep an eye on that.  Rosario was ranked #50 in the majors by ESPN and with the slight drop in production canceled out by the move to middle infield I'd expect him in about the same range next year.

3.  Byron Buxton, OF, Elizabethton (Rookie).  Buxton is the guy the Twins took #2 overall in this year's draft, and I'm interested to see what the early scouting on him is.  He hasn't exactly set the world on fire, hitting just .211 between two rookies leagues this year, but his OBP is impressive for such a low average and the biggest question on his was his power and he knocked out 4 homers in 102 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League.  His production won't matter for a couple of years - he'll continue to be highly rated based on potential and "toolsy-ness" - and he's just 18 and right out of high school afterall, but keep an eye on how he does repeating rookie ball next year.  My biggest fear is we have another Ndudi Ebi here.  And sure, I could have gone with Brien Taylor or Adam Johnson (go Twins) but come on, how many chances to you get bring up Ndudi Ebi in a conversation?

4.  Aaron Hicks, OF, New Britain (AA).  Buxton before Buxton was Buxton, Hicks was picked fourteenth by the Twins out of high school in 2008 as a toolsy guy and found himself ranked in the top 45 prospects by Baseball America each of the next three years, before being unranked this season due to diminishing returns.  Not that it's time to give up on him.  Athleticism doesn't just disappear unless you're Shawn Kemp or Willie Mays Hayes and there's no indication anything has happened to Hicks, he's just seen his numbers dip but this year has been a nice rebound in AA with basically his entire slash line going up (from .242/.354/.368 to .281/.381/.453) and a career high in homers with 12.  He's still just 22 and he's made a steady progression from Rookie ball to AA in his career thus far so there's no need to panic just yet, but next year is a big one for Hicks.

5.  Kyle Gibson, P, Fort Myers (A+).  If you're like me Gibson is one of the guys you care about the most, simply because he's a power pitcher with filthy stuff who struck guys out like it was his job (which it is) before getting hurt and needing Tommy John surgery (which I assume made the Twins' upper management happy since they'd probably hope he'd stop striking people out all the time).  He had made it all the way to AAA before he blew out the arm and although his numbers weren't great at Rochester they'd been stellar all the way through the system prior to that.  In his rehab so far this year (through 10 games between Rookie and A ball) he's put up an ERA of 2.55 with a 0.96 WHIP and 17 Ks in 17.2 innings vs. just 5 walks.  Good stuff.  Here's to hoping Gibson is in the rotation next season.  No, seriously, here's to hoping.  I have a vodka & tonic in my hand right now and I'm totally drinking it.

6.  Levi Michael, SS, Fort Myers (A+).  You probably remember Michael because he was the Twins' first round pick last season at #30, the 21-year old shortstop from North Carolina who everyone said like hurry up and get up to the majors because this SS situation blows.  Well don't hold your breath.  Despite Brian Dozier getting booted back to Rochester for some weird reason with two weeks left in the minor league season I don't think Michael will be there next year unless he gets some of those sweet Melky Cabrera roids.  He hit just .236/.327/.299 this year, and although the walk rate is nice pretty much everything else is awful, particularly he's Punto-ian lack of power.  Since he's a shortstop I'd make a comment on his fielding here, but I have to admit I have no idea what a .962 fielding percentage or 4.33 range factor mean, so instead look boobs:

Classic distraction technique

7.  Oswaldo Arcia, OF, New Britain (AA).  Arcia is an interesting case because he may have the best numbers of anybody on this list (possibly outside Sano) but he's never appeared on Baseball America's top prospects lists.  He hit .375 at Elizabethton in 2010, is hitting .315 this year between Fort Myers and New Britian, and has never hit below .290 once in five minor league seasons (.275 in 2009).   And he's done it the whole way with good power (more gap power, but he's still hit double-digits homers three times) and the last two seasons he's even learned to mix in some walks.  He's been so steady throughout his career I kind of think he's probably the most sure thing in the system.  He's still just 21 but in five seasons his career line between rookie ball and AA is .315/.371/.533.  Dude's a pure pimp, and he's finally starting to get recognized-getting a spot in the futures game this year (and going 1-2 with a double).  I'd bet he shows up on some lists somewhere this year.  CALLED IT.

8.  Jose Berrios, P, Elizabethton (Rookie).  This is the guy the Twins took at #32 this year with the draft pick they were awarded for losing husky camera whore Mike Cuddyer as an 18-year old out of Puerto Rico and he has been flat-out unhittable in rookie ball.  Between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League Berrios has thrown 25.2 innings with a combined ERA of 0.70 and WHIP of 0.55, striking out a staggering 43 while walking just 4.  Guys.  That's a 10-1 K-to-BB ratio.  Since hitting E-Town he's made two starts, going a total of 9 innings and allowing 3 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, and striking out 16.  I mean holy F.  Small sample size and all yes, but, like the Shermanator, confidence is high.

Don't act like you didn't know exactly what I was talking about.

9.  Joe Benson, OF, New Britian (AA).  Benson's the one guy on this list we've already seen in the majors, putting up a .239/.270/.352 line in 21 games last season which was apparently enough to get Baseball America to name him the #99 prospect in baseball and for the Twins to assign him to AAA to start this year even though he'd never played there before.  And it was a disaster.  Benson hit just .179 in 28 games at Rochester before getting busted back to AA and then injured his wrist, required surgery.  The good news is that he completely tore up Rookie and A ball pitching upon his return.  The bad news is he's failed to break a .190 average at either AAA or AA this year with a Revere-esque slugging percentage and he's struck out nearly 30% of his at-bats through his minor league career.  I don't want to say he's a lost cause just yet, but at 24 it's time to shit or get off the pot.  Definitely the most disappointing guy on this list.  Like Cooper Manning.  Also this:

Look at this hair.  LOOK AT IT!

10.  Deolis Guerra, P, Rochester (AAA).   Although everyone on the list is more important to the future of the Twins, Guerra is someone I keep following because he's important to the past - the last link to the Johan Santana trade.   Humber is gone and threw a perfect game, Mulvey is dead or something I don't know, and Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy (GOOD!) who was then traded for two shithead relievers (BAD!).  So Guerra is it.   There's good news and bad news here.  GOOD:  Dominated AA this year.  BAD:  Sucked at AAA, career ERA of 6 with a 5.55 this year.  BAD:  Basically has been given up on as a starter, not starting a game in 2012 and only 10 of 37 in 2011.  GOOD:  Has struck out more than a batter per inning since being turned into a full time reliever.  BAD:  Sucks.  GOOD:  Could maybe be a decent reliever.

So yeah.  The entire haul for Johan Santana has been 20 relief innings out of Humber where he got completely rocked, one+ inning out of Kevin Mulvey (that's it, really?) where he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs, two shitty fucking years of Jon Rauch who would later go on to fuck me over, two sometimes exciting but ultimately frustrating years of Carlos Gomez, an injury-plagued and mediocre year from J.J. Hardy (who would go on to become one of the best shortstops in the league the year after they traded him), and 24 absolutely crappy innings from one of the relievers they traded Hardy for, releasing the other one (or whatever) without getting a single major league inning out of him.  So yeah, you could say Guerra is pretty important even if his absolute upside is a decent set-up man.  Let's get 2-3 years out of him and call it a day.  Yes?  We all agree?  Sweet.  Time for some punch and pie.

Monday's Musings - 10/11/2011

Don't read this.  No, seriously, I mean it.  I don't know when it happened but somehow I've become painfully unfunny lately. This blog is brutal.  For inspiration I read through some of my posts from a year or two ago and they were pretty good, but not only that they inspired some pretty awesome comments that led to awesome conversations in the comment section.  Now?  Nothing.  I've got nothing.  This is going to be terrible.

-  First off the big news is that the Lynx won the WNBA championship.  Here are my thoughts on that:

-  Next up I suppose we need to discuss the Vikings, despite the fact that Don McNabb has somehow managed to combine a noodle arm with the inability to throw the ball anywhere near where he's trying to.  I mean seriously, have you ever seen a worse QB than McNabb?  Have you ever, for kicks, decided to try to throw a curve ball when you play catch with a football?  And it doesn't actually curve or anything, it just goes through the air with a complete wobble, about as far from a spiral as possible?  That's what McNabb's ball is looking like these days.  The Vikings have no chance to win more than 4 games this year unless Christian Ponder is the next Andy Dalton.  Poor AP.  He's wasted like Rico Tucker was wasted that one year.

See these blast points?  Too precise for Donovan McNabb.

-  Speaking of the Gophers, once again the football team got waxed in embarrassing fashion.  Here are my thoughts on that:

-  Also in the shitty football team department, how about that "Dream Team."  In case you missed it that's how the Eagles were being described this off season after signing Asomugha, Steve Smith (the bad one), and Vince Young.  Now they're 1-4 after getting beat by the Bills, and wait what?  Somehow signing Vince Young is supposed to be a good thing?  Sometimes a guy who was great in college and sucks in the pros just sucks.  He doesn't always need a change of scenery or a new scheme or whatever - Vince Young just sucks.  And so do the Eagles apparently.  Who knew that just assembling a bunch of talent with no real regard for how it fits together wouldn't work out   Too much crazy.

-  Speaking of crazy, are you watching this Terra Nova show?  Fuckin' dinosaurs, man.  I don't really know what the plot is yet, but next on House:  some crazy disease nobody can figure out, a crazy doctor who plays by his own rules, and a plot twist.  Sounds spicy!

-  You know what's sweet?  Winning an over 9 runs bet in a game that was tied 3-3 in extra innings when the home team hits a walk-off grand slam.  That, my friends, is luck.

It's like the luck of the Irish only I'm not Irish so you figure it out

-  Anybody still in a survivor pool for the NFL?  If you are it means you're either incredibly smart, and knew not to trust Eli Manning even in a home game against a horrid defense (unlikely, but possible) and also knew that Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst would combine to play an efficient, solid game with few mistakes (impossible), or you're stupid.  So yes, I'm telling you if you're still alive you're stupid, because the Giants were the obvious play and not taking them meant you trying to be cute which usually doesn't work out.  So if you're still alive congratulations on being dumb and lucky.  You suck.

-  So what exactly is the deal here with the MLB playoffs, we're going to go from an awesome Divisional round to a shitty Championship round?  Actually I guess we shouldn't really worry yet since it really doesn't matter if the early games are blowouts or are close, just as long as we get to games 6 and especially 7 and they're close it'll be entertaining.  How awesome was last round?  Three Game 5s that all ended as one run affairs including one that went to extra innings?  AND the Yankees lost?  It was a little slice o' heaven.  I shed a tear and I swear as A-Rod was whiffing on that Valverde heater I could hear Hallelujah playing in the back ground.  With the song and the crying it was just like when Marisa Cooper died.


Anyway, I thought Girardi made one of the absolutely most brilliant managerial moves I've ever seen, but then followed it up with a classic bit over over-managing.  First, his pull of Nova after just two innings and 31 pitches was just a great move.  Nova had given up two first inning home runs and a double in the second, but he'd also struck out two batters and retired the last three batters he'd faced.  Sounds like an ok beginning, but watching the game you could tell he didn't really have it.  Most managers would let the pitcher go another inning and try to get him through the fifth.  Girardi saw Nova didn't have his A game and yanked him immediately.  Great move.

Of course, much like that damn overconfident hare who somehow lost to the turtle, Girardi thought he was awesome and made one too many moves, pulling Phil Hughes after just an inning and a third despite the fact that he was dealing but had just given up a hit.  That didn't come back to bite him immediately, but Hughes was looking like he could have pitched deep into the game and suddenly Girardi had to really stretch his bullpen.  That included pitching C.C. Fatbathia on short rest and he eventually blew the game.  I'm just really curious how things could have worked out if he left Hughes in - and he should have.

Lost in all this, of course, is that Fister (Fister?  I hardly know 'er) was looking amazing, which is no real surprise because he's been a whole different pitcher since being traded to Detroit.  His Ks/9 jumped by 50% from around 6 in his career with Seattle to 9 per 9 innings once he came to the Tigers and was suddenly completely unhittable and looked it that night.  I can't help but wonder if it's because of Leyland.  Maybe Seattle was like the Twins and were trying to force him to pitch to contact or some similar retardation and Leyland just cut him loose.  It's possible and you damn well know it.  Why do you love Gardy so much, sicky?

-  Speaking of the Twins, I'm pretty sure I'm done with those season wrap-ups I was doing.  In my defense I got through 3 positions so that's pretty good I think considering how shit-boxy this team was.  And all the positions left are depressing.  Middle infield?  Gross.  Starting pitching?  Vomit.  The bullpen?  Yuck.  I guess the outfield is semi-interesting, but mainly that's because of Ben Revere and Joe Benson.  Can Revere develop a little power or learn how to walk?  Either one of those would make him a legit big league leadoff hitter.  And can Benson become the five-tool stud he's purportedly potentially possible to be or is he going to end up moving to the middle of the country where he becomes a bouncer at the Double Deuce and starts up a fling with the local doctor while feuding with the local rich guy who kind of a dick?

Future Joe?

I don't know.  I mean, I guess it'll be a semi-interesting offseason with decisions to be made on several guys, but most of those decisions are going to be of the "offer a contract: yes/no" rather than trades which are way more fun.  Hopefully they do some interesting things and figure out how to get this team back on track.  God knows I'll be here.

Also, obviously, I learned how to caption photos that I post, so that's probably going to get run into the ground.

Yeah, yeah. Stuff coming.

I know I haven't posted in a while, but I promise I will tomorrow.  I will have a complete trip wrap-up and my NFL picks over the next two days.  It's just been a whirlwind.  After Fenway we went to bars, then woke up early the next morning and drove 5 hours to Cooperstown, then drove three hours back that night to Poughkeepsie, then got up at 7:30 the next morning and drove to New York and did NYC stuff, then got up the next morning to fly home and had a fantasy auction that night and a fantasy draft tonight.  So yeah, it's been busy.  I'll get around to it. 

Tonight's draft was interesting because it's a "family league" and I co-own a team with Mrs. W.  In order to keep her interest as long as possible I let her draft a bunch of players for our team by giving her a list of of players and letting her pick.  Tonight, I think because I was fairly burned out and also because I wanted to punch my kids I gave her more leeway than usual.  She decided tonight, between pounding Chardonnay, that she'd pick guys who had "annoying names."  We ended up with a LaSean, a DeSean, and a Marshawn, along with Santonio, Hakeem, Marcedes, Jordy, Sebastian, and Willis McGahee (because "McGahhe is annoying because it should just be McGee, dammit.")  Good times. 

Also, did you know Joe Benson is white?  This isn't quite like when I learned Lew Ford was white, but it's close.