Minnesota Twins Season Wrap - Catcher

I've come full circle.  I am now embracing the new Twins.  I raged.  I cried.  I bitched.  I complained about Gardy until I was blue in the face.  I questioned why they went Nishioka over Hardy at the beginning of the year and I continued on that all season long.  I questioned Mauer's heart, Span's head, and Morneau's everything.  I wondering what was going on with management and the training staff, and I couldn't understand why they weren't more aggressive trading off pieces for prospects at the trade deadline.  But I'm done now.

Now it's time to accept the Twins are broken.  Blame at on injuries if you must, for it is convenient and soothing, but the fact of the matter is those who weren't hurt, and the times where the team was intact, were mediocre at best.  It times to move on.  Yes, I'm betting we'll have more Augusts and Septembers of meaningless ball, but if everything goes according to (my) plan, we'll at least be watching players who could be part of the future, rather than the lingering remnants of a disappointing and unfulfilled past.  With that spirit, I am going to do a review/preview of this team by position, starting with catcher. 

It is becoming apparent that Joe Mauer's future is no longer behind the plate, at least not full-time and I'm betting we'll see a full-time move in the next year or two, whether it is to the outfield or first base I don't know, but it's coming.  Mainly due to his inability to stay on the field, but also, in my opinion, because they need something to explain why the guy they just gave the biggest contract ever to put up a batting line more reminiscent of Danny Valencia than what we're used to seeing from him.  Next year is an absolute monster for Mauer, a huge crossroads year, and his chance to prove that he's worth that contract.

A huge chunk of Mauer's value always came from the fact that he was one of the best hitters in the league at a position where defense is considered the priority, and most team's don't have an issue with letting offense slide.  Catcher's average OPS+ (where 100 is an average batter, higher is better) has historically been around 90, all the way from the 1950s-2000s.  That's the worst of any position player, on par with shortstop.  So when Mauer has a run like he did from 2006-2010 when his aggregate OPS+ was 142, you are in a huge advantage versus most teams.  Even if he hits like that and plays outfield or 1b, you're still holding an advantage against most squads, even if it is diminished somewhat.

So the real question, more important than establishing what position he's going to play, is whether or not Mauer can get back to the hitter we all saw those five years, or if he's now become this slappy Luis Rodriguez type of hitter.  This year was so far removed from what we usually see out of Joe I'm ready to call it a fluke with one caveat that I'll get to later.  His power fell off a cliff, and I don't mean home run power because in that case the 28 HR season was the fluke, but he stopped hitting doubles.  His walk rate went down and his strikeout rate went up.  He hit an absolutely ridiculous amount of groundballs, even for him, and made contact and far fewer of his swings, despite not changing the pitches he was swinging at.  It was a truly bizarre year.

Which is why I'm mostly inclined to dismiss it as an anomaly and expect to see Mauer back hitting in the mid-.300s with his 10 homers, 30 doubles, and a nice OBP.  However, that one caveat I mentioned earlier is his health, and this year has truly been dizzying with the ailments.  From bilateral leg weakness at the start to pneumonia at the end, I don't know if he was ever truly healthy this year.  It's easy enough to question his toughness and his heart when he has to sit out four games with a sore neck, especially when Ezal was back out there within minutes hustling Smokey for money after he fell on that wet floor, but perhaps he wasn't ever healthy.  Perhaps there were some serious health issues more time off at the start of the year was what was needed.  I really don't know, and I don't think anybody else really does either.  Which is why I'm officially giving the $200 million dollar man a pass on this one.  Everybody deserves a second chance.  Let's just hope he's back to normal because the Twins are stuck with him - nobody's trading for that contract - at whatever position he may be.

And what if they do move him?  Who becomes the new catcher?  The only two prospects at the position who were major league ready were shipped off in short-sighted moves by the front office for a reliever who defines average stuff was looked attractive because he had a bunch of shiny saves and a low-A reliever whose strikeout rates dropped each of the last three seasons.  So it's going to be Drew Butera or Rene Rivera?  Gross.

Rivera is a career minor leaguer and Butera is a defensive specialist, and neither can hit.  Both OPS+ at a 13 this year.  13!  Thir-fucking-teen.  That means they don't get hits, they don't get walks, and on the rare occasion they do get a hit it's a single basically every time.

Butera had the worst OPS+ in the league out of any player with at least 230 plate appearances, twice as bad as the Rays' Reid Brignac who was second with a 27.  Rene Rivera had the worst OPS out of any player with at least 100 plate appearances.  Which means that the two worst hitters in all of major league baseball who were given 100 PAs or more were both Twins' catchers.  Of 82 pitchers in the NL with at least 30 plate appearances, 26 of them OPS+ed better than the 13 the two-headed little girl with a bat put-up, and the most astonishing thing of all is that I was astonished it was that few.

Wait, there's more.  Since 1920, Drew Butera put up the 3rd worst OPS+ by any batter with 230 PAs or more.  His .153 average is the fourth worst, and with a little luck he might even be able to get to second (worst is .135 by Ray Oyler in '68).  He also had the 3rd worst OBP.  The good news?  It was only the 20th worst slugging percentage.  He's a hell of a defender, has a great arm, and I think will probably be an excellent coach some day, but he. can. not. hit.  His numbers were only slightly better last year.  This is who he is.  He can't be a starter.

Rivera has hit, a little, in the minors with a career line of .252/.306/.390, which basically projects him as a serviceable triple-AAA catcher, and not, as we saw this year, a major league caliber player.  This means the Twins are stuck.  They need to move Mauer, or at least believe they do, but have hamstrung themselves with no available major league type players who can be an every day catcher.  Jose Morales was no titan for the Rockies this year, but he'd at least be a viable alternative, and I really don't even want to talk about Wilson Ramos.  It was a terribly short-sighted trade at the time and it's just continued to get worst as Ramos continues to hit, hit with power, show a good batting eye, and throw runners out.  Oh yeah, both Morales and Ramos have thrown out a higher percentage of would-be base stealers than Butera.

I don't want to dwell on Ramos, but Aaron Gleeman dug up a little factoid on Ramos's season.  He's currently at an OPS+ of 112 at the age of 23.  The list of catchers with at least 400 PAs in a season to OPS+ over 100 is Mauer, Buster Posey, Jason Kendall, Craig Biggio, Russell Martin, and Ramos.  That's it.  I don't think it's completely overstating it to say that the trade of Ramos, factoring in their return and what's happened with Mauer, may have set the franchise back a few years.  Yes, years.

Since they can't count on Mauer and Butera and Rivera are brutal then what?  Free agent?  The list of potential free agent catchers is underwhelming and mainly full of career back-up types.  The only names on that list I'm remotely interested in are Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Doumit, and they probably won't pay Shoppach, if Tampa even buys him out, and Doumit is oft-injured so who knows.  I don't.

The most realistic scenario has the team heading into next year expecting Mauer to catch half the time and Butera do catch half the time, something that is just incredibly depressing to me.  Remember what I said about being optimistic and heading into next year looking towards the future?  I give up.  Hopefully when I do this rundown on the other positions I'll feel better, but right now I don't even want to think about writing any more about the Twins.

I'm a terrible blogger

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Butera vs. Morales

I was asked recently by a follower on Twitter (seriously guys, I'm on Twitter.  Follow me and all your greatest dreams will come true) to do a breakdown of Morales vs. Butera.  I'm assuming the question is "who should make the postseason roster as the backup catcher", because it's pretty clear Morales is a far better hitter while Butera is a defensive whiz who, HR against the Phillies not withstanding, might as well go up to the plate with a whiffleball bat.  Frankly, this one is easy as well:  there is zero reason to have Butera on the postseason roster.  Zero.

First, just to explain how bad Butera is at the plate, remember that I mentioned in a post last week how his OPS is one of the ten worst in the entire league.  His .185/.220/.294 isn't just anemic, it is laughably bad, and registers as an OPS+ of 34.  For some perspective, in Nick Punto's worst season he posted a 53 - 56% higher than Butera.  That is the same jump you see going from Denard Span to Danny Valencia or J.J. Hardy to Joe Mauer - it's a big difference.  Any time you are that far from Nick Punto's worst season, you have issues.  Morales isn't exactly hitting the crap out of the ball so far this year, but we saw last year in the time he was up that he is a good (at worst average) hitter, and somebody you could easily use as a PH.

Ok, fine.  That much was already clear, we know Morales is a better hitter.  So why would we consider Butera?  Three reasons:

1.  He's an awesome defender.  Yes, yes he is.  I mentioned this last week, but he's one of the best in the league at throwing out would-be base stealers, and has done the majority of his work with one of the slowest pitchers to the plate in all of baseball.  He's phenomenal, really.  But it doesn't matter.
 
Mauer doesn't need a defensive replacement in the late innings.  For one, he's a pretty good defensive catcher on his own (which I will likely repeat over and over in this post) and two, there's generally no such thing as a late inning defensive replacement at catcher.  This isn't like putting in Jason Repko for Jason Kubel.  Plus you would never, ever take Mauer's bat out of the lineup in any game close enough to warrant needing an upgrade on defense - just in case you go into extras.

So we can pretty much rule out Butera getting any PT in this situation. 

2.  Morales isn't good enough to fill in for Mauer behind the plate when he needs rest.  Well, he's 0-2 throwing out base stealers this and although he was a respectable 8/18 last year he also allowed 5 passed balls in just 29 games, or one fewer than Mauer and Butera have allowed combined so far this year and is nowhere near Butera (or Mauer) in terms of overall defense.  But, again, it doesn't matter.

This isn't the grind of the regular season, this is the slow-it-down dog-and-pony show playoffs, where you frequently have a day off between games and sometimes "travel day" really means two.  There's a reason why teams with a strong front of the rotation have such an advantage in the playoffs, and that's because the games are spread out you never have to go more than four hurlers deep and often only need three.  That same extra rest and logic would dictate that Mauer won't need a break for his aching knees or back or shoulder or heel or locusts or whatever current ailment is plaguing him.  There will never be a need for Butera (or Morales) to start a playoff game, and if there is, it's already over.

So we can pretty much rule out Butera getting any PT in this situation. 

3.  He's Pavano's personal catcher.  I have seen situations where there is a true need for a personal catcher, whether it's personal or strategical, but that isn't the case here.  Once again, although Butera may be better at throwing runners out than Mauer, it's not like Joe is Brian Harper back there - he's still one of the best catchers in the league and will be just fine.  Not to mention Pavano came out and said that the whole Pavano's personal catcher thing was just as much to give Mauer a regular day off as it was for any strategic reasons.  This one doesn't matter either, and we can once again rule out Butera getting any PT in this situation.

So there you go.  There is absolutely zero reason for Butera to be on the playoff roster because there is absolutely zero situations where it would make sense for him to actually play.  Morales would likely not see much of the field either, but he can at least give you an at-bat here and there where needed and you know it's not wasted - you can't say the same for Butera.

Really, the only arguments for letting Drew play would include words like gamer, gritty, warrior, chemistry, good teammate, and "he's been here all year", the types of arguments that writers like the Fire Joe Morgan guys have shown to be essentially meaningless cliches, clung to by aging sportswriters as the game and logic pass them by.

In other words, this sounds exactly like something Gardy is going to be all over. 

New Jersey Part II

You ever have one of those dinners with work people that just makes you want to claw your own ears out?  I mean, it was a really good dinner (bacon-wrapped shrimp, bruschetta, and mini-burger appetizers, micro green salad with apples, walnuts, and feta, with a top sirloin with grilled asparagus along with a few vodka tonics and a couple of glasses of wine) but the conversation was really sub-par.  Most of the time was spent with my co-workers extoling the comedic stylings of Home Improvement, The Nanny, and the George Lopez show and waxing nostaligic for movies like Dirty Dancing, Mannequin, and the Dirty Dozen.  In the meantime I try to slip in a reference to How I Met Your Mother, Seinfeld, or Roadhouse and I'm met with blank stares.  And when the chatter turned to work, I had to hear endlessly about "The Golden Nugget", "Low-hanging fruit", "looking at things from 30,000 feet", and "a long run for a short slide."  Seriously people, just say what you mean and stop sounding like corporate zombies.  Also, when referring to a previous job, please stop saying, "In my past life."  Just stop.  Let's just move on.

- Oh, and they all love Family Guy, too.  Ugh.

- Of course, the first thing I do when I get back to my room is check the Twins, and knowing Manship is throwing tonight I'm not expecting much.  But we're actually sitting at 0-0 through three.  How often does a Twins' starter go three innings without giving up a run?  10% of the time?  5%?  I need to get a slingbox, I'd love to be watching this game.  Although it looks like Denard just hit into a double play.  I'm assuming it was a rocket.  Keep smilin' Denard!

 

- How about the White Sox throwing in the towel?  I can't say I blame them.  They're too busy molesting little kids and visiting Turkish Bath Houses to be a real team.  After trading Thome and Contreras, I really wanted to know if they got anything decent back (hopefully not), but ESPN has their most recent transaction as calling up Freddy Garcia on August 19th.  Thanks ESPN!  You are truly the sports leader.  While I look elsewhere for the info, go ahead and chew on the logic of picking up Alex Rios and his contract right before you attempt to rebuild.

- Found a little info thanks to some website called Google.  The Sox got minor league infielder Justin Fuller from the Dodgers for Thome.  Fuller is nowhere to be found on any Dodger top prospect lists.  He's never been a big hitter, but has shown a little more promise this year, and has some value as a guy who can play every position, infield and out.  So like a Denny Hocking.  I'm not terrified.  From the Rockies (for Contreras), they picked up minor league pitcher Brandon Hynick.  This is, frankly, truly bizarre.  Contreras is, as you may recall, a broken down old man who says he's 37 but is probably more like 43 and on his best day is no more than a #5 starter.  Hynick, on the other hand, was a top 20 or top 10 prospect in the Rockies system at the beginning of the year depending on where you looked.  He didn't have a great year (4.98 ERA), but did register a 3-1 K to BB ratio.  The knock on him is that he doesn't have great stuff, but he does have great command of his pitches, and the Twins have shown those kind of pitchers can have at least a modicum of success in the AL Central.  A case of the Sox trying to get more and more like the Twins?  Maybe.  But I know one thing for sure, Rockies' fans should be pissed about this one.

- Home run Cuddyer to even the score.  Suck it, I Hate Cuddyer Guy.

- Hold on, I think I just remembered that this hotel bar has the baseball package.

-  Yep, sure did.  Just got back from watching the Twins beat the White Sox in the bottom of the ninth, which is essentially a ritual at this point.  At least so much so that after I asked the bartender for the Twins game, and he couldn't find it, I said, "try channel 668" which had the game.  He asked how I knew that and I said, "Same channel as back home."  Random guy says, "Is home Minnesota or Chicago?"  I says to him, "Minnesota" and he says, "I hate that fucking stadium.  I can't wait for next year."  It's these moments, and only these few moments, when I'm going to miss the dome.  It is so much in Chicago's head it's like a suburban white boy playing ball against Gary Payton in his prime.

- In case you missed it, Jose Morales knocked in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth in his first at-bat back from AAA.  Awesome.  That guy can seriously rake.  I say we trade Mauer now before it's too late and give the catcher job to him.  Other observations from tonight's game:

• Cuddy with a second home run.  He drives me crazy, but there's no doubt he can hit.  And still has the best arm on the team.
• Casilla bouncing into a key double play for the Sox.  I have to be honest, I'm not overly impressed since he's back up.  
• Guerrier comes in and does what he does, namely give up a game-tying home run to David Beckham.
• Jermaine Dye has got to be the scariest mo fo in the league.  I've always been so scared of Thome when they play the Sox, I've mostly been able to ignore how terrifying Dye is.  Not any more.
• At one point I switched seating areas in the bar (more on that later) and I was now watching the White Sox feed.  After Dye's fly out to the track, they started in on the "dome air conditioning blows in when the visiting team is at bat" theory.  They showed every single air vent in the dome, and actually a couple were blowing in, including the one in left.  Of course, like all shitty conspiracy theorists, they neglected to show the vents while the Twins were hitting.  One sided evidence is not evidence.
• Jon Rauch is a huge individual, neck tattoo and all.
  
• Right before Morales hit the big game winner, Gomez had a chance to be a hero and instead did his best Cuddyer impression, whiffing on a slider outside and in the dirt.  We already have one of those Gomez, we don't need another.
• Saw Span hit a triple to give the Twins a lead (the one Guerrier later blew).  Afterwards he looked like this:

- There is one good story from the bar.  About fifteen minutes or so after I came down and had them switch the tv to the Twins game, some guy comes and sits on the same side of the bar as me and asks if they can put it on the Phillies game and the bartender told him he had just switched it for someone else.  Now, the bartender already mentioned the Twins game was on a TV on the other side of the bar, so naturally - being the nice guy I am - I say I can just head over to the other side and watch it, no problem.  So then the guy ends up buying me a drink for being a nice guy.  Funny thing is, the Phillies game was already over at this point.  The guy was so drunk and busy macking on some chick that he never knew.  But hey, free drink, so that works for me.

- And well, it turns out that I accidentally had a lot to drink whilst watching the game, and I'm going to call it a night.  I know, the old me would have kept chugging through and blogged while I could barely see, but apparently I'm a more responsible W.  Dammit.