Remember how I used to post my basketball picks on here every day? I'm sure that was pretty annoying, and I stopped doing it because it got too be too much of a chore to post and keep track of record and everything. I like to lose my money on my own, not by sharing the misery with others. Although for something like the Super Bowl I will make an exception. Here's what I'm going with tomorrow:
Saints +5
OVER 55.5 total points
Reggie Bush OVER 23.5 rushing yards
Reggie Bush OVER 28.5 receiving yards
Dallas Clark OVER 67.5 receiving yards
Dallas Clark OVER 6 receptions
Pierre Garcon OVER 56.5 receiving yards
Austin Collie OVER 49.5 receiving yards
Dwight Freeney UNDER 2 tackles
Shortest TD in the game OVER 1.5 yards
Longest FG UNDER 42.5 yards
Longest TD UNDER 50.5 yards
UNDER 3 sacks for the game
Largest lead of the game UNDER 16.5 points
UNDER 3 total FGs for the game
NO defensive or special teams TD in the game
Kim Kardashian WILL BE shown wearing a Saints shirt
Pierre Garcon -3.5 pts vs. Raptors/Kings first quarter points
Saints/Colts 1st quarter points PICK vs. Dwight Howard free throw attempts
Saints to WIN the coin toss
Drew Brees UNDER 1.5 rushing yards
Pierre Thomas to score NO touchdown
Jeremy Shockey UNDER 27.5 receiving yards
Donald Brown 1st reception OVER 6.5 yards
Mike Hart 1st rush UNDER 1.5 yards (no rush = under)
Peyton Manning 1st rush UNDER 0.5 yards (no rush = under)
Drew Brees 1st rush UNDER 0.5 yards (no rush = under)
Mike Bell UNDER 13.5 rushing yards)
ZERO fumbles lost for the game by both teams
Mickelson birdies -1 vs. Manning TD passes
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Friday, February 5, 2010
O-Dog is Here (+ Penn State Preview)
The Twins have signed second-baseman Orlando Hudson to a 1-year, five-million dollar deal in an excellent move to shore up the weak infield positions, as well as giving the team a legit #2 hitter so Gardy can stop hitting Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert there.
Hudson is 32 and rumored to be on a decline according to some, but he's actually improved his OPS+ each of the last four seasons which just goes to show you can't trust a bunch of morons who use their preconceived notions and nothing more than their eyes and some kind of elusive "feel" to determine a player's worth.
Last season he hit .283/.357/.417 with 62 walks and 35 doubles, and based on is last few seasons that is pretty much what you can expect next season, a massive bump from last year when Twins' second basemen combined to hit just .209/.302/.267 with just 25 extra-base hits. Despite his four gold gloves, including one last year, his defense is probably slipping a bit according to a bunch of metrics I barely understand, but the upgrade on offense more than offsets any defects.
Simply put, a great signing by the Twins, and a good sign that they were willing to open the wallets and give a much needed piece five million dollars. I was convinced they were going to offer three and lose him to Cleveland who would offer more money. I'm a big fan of this signing.
I'm not as big a fan of the Gophers' NCAA chances at this point. This Penn State game is obviously a must-win, but really it's more than that. A win means, well, not much. You just have to win it, because a loss is probably a season-ender. Maybe not mathematically, but I don't think even the most ardent and optimistic gopher supporter would expect a bid if they lose on Saturday.
I was going to do a full five-question style preview, but what's the point? You know the drill. Penn State is a terrible team with one extraordinary player in Talor Battle and that's it. About the only thing they do well is not allow offensive rebounds - they are mediocre to awful in every other measurable trait. They're 0-10 in the Big Ten and already have losses to Iowa, UNC-Wilmington, and Tulane this season. There is no real reason the Gophers should lose this game.
However.
Penn State won't end up going winless in the Big Ten this year, they just won't. They're going to have to win at home, and they aren't going to beat Michigan State, Ohio State, or Purdue, so it's going to be Minnesota or Northwestern (or both). The Gophers are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season, there's turmoil all over the place both off the court and on the court, Tubby's proclamation that nobody's job is safe as well as his bizarre substitution patters likely have this team completely rattled and I doubt anybody feels really confident over there right now.
In other words, they're ripe for the picking. Bring on the Shockers.
Penn State 68, Minnesota 60.
Hudson is 32 and rumored to be on a decline according to some, but he's actually improved his OPS+ each of the last four seasons which just goes to show you can't trust a bunch of morons who use their preconceived notions and nothing more than their eyes and some kind of elusive "feel" to determine a player's worth.
Last season he hit .283/.357/.417 with 62 walks and 35 doubles, and based on is last few seasons that is pretty much what you can expect next season, a massive bump from last year when Twins' second basemen combined to hit just .209/.302/.267 with just 25 extra-base hits. Despite his four gold gloves, including one last year, his defense is probably slipping a bit according to a bunch of metrics I barely understand, but the upgrade on offense more than offsets any defects.
Simply put, a great signing by the Twins, and a good sign that they were willing to open the wallets and give a much needed piece five million dollars. I was convinced they were going to offer three and lose him to Cleveland who would offer more money. I'm a big fan of this signing.
I'm not as big a fan of the Gophers' NCAA chances at this point. This Penn State game is obviously a must-win, but really it's more than that. A win means, well, not much. You just have to win it, because a loss is probably a season-ender. Maybe not mathematically, but I don't think even the most ardent and optimistic gopher supporter would expect a bid if they lose on Saturday.
I was going to do a full five-question style preview, but what's the point? You know the drill. Penn State is a terrible team with one extraordinary player in Talor Battle and that's it. About the only thing they do well is not allow offensive rebounds - they are mediocre to awful in every other measurable trait. They're 0-10 in the Big Ten and already have losses to Iowa, UNC-Wilmington, and Tulane this season. There is no real reason the Gophers should lose this game.
However.
Penn State won't end up going winless in the Big Ten this year, they just won't. They're going to have to win at home, and they aren't going to beat Michigan State, Ohio State, or Purdue, so it's going to be Minnesota or Northwestern (or both). The Gophers are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season, there's turmoil all over the place both off the court and on the court, Tubby's proclamation that nobody's job is safe as well as his bizarre substitution patters likely have this team completely rattled and I doubt anybody feels really confident over there right now.
In other words, they're ripe for the picking. Bring on the Shockers.
Penn State 68, Minnesota 60.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
The Big 10 = Perimeter-based? (NERD ALERT!!)
For the last few decades, the Big Ten has had a reputation much like your sister - it likes to bang it inside. However, prompted by a phone call from Snacks as he watched his precious money leak away while Wisconsin "sat around and did nothing but shoot threes" to beat Michigan State, I did a little digging. The info was worthwhile enough for me to write a super boring post about it. Put on your nerd calculator hat.
The original question was something along the lines of "how many threes does Wisconsin shoot compared to everybody else." Luckily, kenpom.com was made just to answer these types of questions. In fact, 39.7% of Wisconsin's field goal attempts come from behind the arc, good enough (bad enough?) to rank 42nd in the country. Pretty high. With 347 teams in D-I, that puts them in the top 12% or so of teams. The follow up was then, "I bet there are a bunch of other Big Ten teams high on that list." So I looked.
Here is the complete list of Big Ten Schools with their rank:
I also wanted to take a look at 3-point accuracy in the conference:
Finally, I wanted to take a look at how the Big Ten compares to the other conferences:
As you can see, the Big Ten not only ranks first in attempting threes as a percentage of total attempts, but also last in three-point shooting percentage. The conference has transformed and is no longer like your sister, but is more like Rick Rickert.
There's a lot more I'd like to do here, such as calculate some stats when you take out the crappy teams that drag the numbers down as well as looking at more historical trends, but I don't have all day. Hopefully you at least found this a little interesting, and if not, I warned you I was going to get nerdy up in here so it's really your own damn fault for reading. Maybe you should think a little harder about what you're going to read next time.
The original question was something along the lines of "how many threes does Wisconsin shoot compared to everybody else." Luckily, kenpom.com was made just to answer these types of questions. In fact, 39.7% of Wisconsin's field goal attempts come from behind the arc, good enough (bad enough?) to rank 42nd in the country. Pretty high. With 347 teams in D-I, that puts them in the top 12% or so of teams. The follow up was then, "I bet there are a bunch of other Big Ten teams high on that list." So I looked.
1. Samford, 52.3%Notice anything? The bold will tell you there are three Big Ten teams in the top 12, but if you look closer you'll notice there is only one other Major Conference team in there, ASU at 11th, and you don't even get a second-tier conference school from the MWC or CUSA or A-10, either. Before you accuse me of being arbitrary with a top 12 just to get Michigan in there (which I was), you should know that there is only one other Big Conference team in the top 20 (Mississippi State - 14th), two more in the top 30 (Auburn-21, Oklahoma-22), and three more in the top-50 (Wisconsin-42, Louisville-44, Okla State-47). So out of the top 50 teams in this metric, four belong to the Big Ten with just six other major conference schools making an appearance.
2. NC A&T, 48.2%
3. Iowa, 48.1%
4. Eastern Kentucky, 48.1%
5. Northwestern, 47.7%
6. William & Mary, 47.2%
7. VMI, 45.5%
8. Denver, 44.6%
9. Chattanooga, 44.5%
10. Mercer, 44.3%
11. Arizona State, 44.3%
12. Michigan, 44.0%
Here is the complete list of Big Ten Schools with their rank:
3. Iowa, 48.1Interesting. Pretty huge separation between the top 6 and bottom 5. And look at the conference records: Top 6 = 17-38, bottom 5 = 36-20.
5. Northwestern, 47.7
12. Michigan, 44.0
42. Wisconsin, 39.7
77. Ohio State, 36.8
80. Penn State, 36.6
204. Minnesota, 30.8
217. Purdue, 30.5
273. Indiana, 28.3
286. Illinois, 27.9
311. Michigan State, 25.7
I also wanted to take a look at 3-point accuracy in the conference:
24. Minnesota, 39.3First off, holy god this conference can't shoot. Secondly, it doesn't take a nerd to figure out that if you shoot threes at a high-volume and can't make them (I'm looking at you Michigan and Iowa) you aren't going to win. At least Purdue and Michigan State had the decency to realize they aren't good shooting teams.
35. Ohio State, 38.6
79. Northwestern, 36.6
110. Illinois, 35.5
130. Indiana, 35.0
166. Wisconsin, 33.9
200. Michigan State, 33.2
230. Penn State, 32.6
245. Iowa, 32.1
262. Purdue, 31.6
325. Michigan, 29.2
Finally, I wanted to take a look at how the Big Ten compares to the other conferences:
There's a lot more I'd like to do here, such as calculate some stats when you take out the crappy teams that drag the numbers down as well as looking at more historical trends, but I don't have all day. Hopefully you at least found this a little interesting, and if not, I warned you I was going to get nerdy up in here so it's really your own damn fault for reading. Maybe you should think a little harder about what you're going to read next time.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Happy Groundhog Day, Royce
More Royce White drama. Fitting that it's groundhog day since it seems we've been here before. No doubt you are aware that Royce has quit the Gopher basketball team for the second time. Since I assume nobody really pays any attention when I say things, I will guess you are unaware that I said earlier at one point that I wasn't going to bother writing about him any more until/unless he ended up playing in a game. I'm mostly going to stick to that. I'm instead going to let the Daily Gopher do the talking instead. If you click on that link you will find a long, well thought out post by PJS detailing who deserves the blame in this whole mess.
I don't agree with all of it - I think Royce deserves more blame than PJS does (maybe not for just this particular "trespassing" incident, but for his entire time at the U), I think the race discussion is misplaced, and I don't know about the legal particulars because I don't understand such things - but overall I'm in PJS's corner here. Particularly when it comes to his criticisms of the way Tubby Smith handled the situation. We received very little information from him regarding what was going on, and that's his right since we're just fans, but it seems Royce didn't receive very clear information from him either, and that's a major issue. Whether the miscommunications were Tubby's fault or Royce's the blame should lie at the feet of the head coach, and it's become clear Royce had a very different idea about what was going on than what Tubby did, and what reality has turned out to be.
This doesn't in the least excuse White's behavior, but this whole situation was a mess that could have been handled better by many different people. I also find it fascinating that Nikola Dragovic, a starting forward for UCLA, was suspended just two games despite facing assault charges stemming from an incident/fight at a concert in October. 2 games. His legal situation is not cleared up. His preliminary hearing was just pushed out to March. Yet he missed just two games while UCLA investigated the incident. I don't have to tell you that Mbakwe hasn't played all year due to a similar charge, and we all know what is going on with Royce due to "trespassing."
Some may say the U holds its players to a higher standard than UCLA. I say the U is run by a bunch of idiots who don't realize that winning truly is the most important thing. I'm not advocating that you look the other way in every situation or offer a scholarship to just anybody, even I have limits, but a trumped-up trespassing charge and a possible assault/possible mistaken identity case? There is actually footage of Dragovic fighting at that concert, although he appears to be defending himself. There is nothing on Mbakwe except the identification of some probably drunk woman, and everyone knows all black people look the same anyway. Maybe this is just frustration with how awful the team has looked lately, but I'm just absolutely disgusted right now. With everybody.
And THAT then, is all I have to say on the situation until/unless he ends up in a uniform - somewhere, anywhere. Besides, why speculate on that garbage when we could be having fun debating who the Gophers might end up playing in the NIT?
I don't agree with all of it - I think Royce deserves more blame than PJS does (maybe not for just this particular "trespassing" incident, but for his entire time at the U), I think the race discussion is misplaced, and I don't know about the legal particulars because I don't understand such things - but overall I'm in PJS's corner here. Particularly when it comes to his criticisms of the way Tubby Smith handled the situation. We received very little information from him regarding what was going on, and that's his right since we're just fans, but it seems Royce didn't receive very clear information from him either, and that's a major issue. Whether the miscommunications were Tubby's fault or Royce's the blame should lie at the feet of the head coach, and it's become clear Royce had a very different idea about what was going on than what Tubby did, and what reality has turned out to be.
This doesn't in the least excuse White's behavior, but this whole situation was a mess that could have been handled better by many different people. I also find it fascinating that Nikola Dragovic, a starting forward for UCLA, was suspended just two games despite facing assault charges stemming from an incident/fight at a concert in October. 2 games. His legal situation is not cleared up. His preliminary hearing was just pushed out to March. Yet he missed just two games while UCLA investigated the incident. I don't have to tell you that Mbakwe hasn't played all year due to a similar charge, and we all know what is going on with Royce due to "trespassing."
Some may say the U holds its players to a higher standard than UCLA. I say the U is run by a bunch of idiots who don't realize that winning truly is the most important thing. I'm not advocating that you look the other way in every situation or offer a scholarship to just anybody, even I have limits, but a trumped-up trespassing charge and a possible assault/possible mistaken identity case? There is actually footage of Dragovic fighting at that concert, although he appears to be defending himself. There is nothing on Mbakwe except the identification of some probably drunk woman, and everyone knows all black people look the same anyway. Maybe this is just frustration with how awful the team has looked lately, but I'm just absolutely disgusted right now. With everybody.
And THAT then, is all I have to say on the situation until/unless he ends up in a uniform - somewhere, anywhere. Besides, why speculate on that garbage when we could be having fun debating who the Gophers might end up playing in the NIT?
Monday, February 1, 2010
Week In Review: 2/1/2010
If you want a little Twins talk, make sure you check out my previous post about the top 100 MLB prospects according to ESPN, directly below this one. It's a lot more entertaining and uplifting than this garbage. Thank god the Gophers don't play again until Saturday. Pretty sure I'm just going to ignore them this week. Also the Reds signed Orlando Cabrera, so if you had your heart set on him playing third for the Twins you can go ahead and give up. You're also an idiot.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Charlotte. If the 49ers want an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament they'll have to be nearly perfect in their A-10 season, and by perfect I mean don't lose any games to inferior teams and steal a bunch from the top of the conference - this week could be their blueprint. They got a shot at a top team coming to their place in Temple, and beat them 74-64, and then took to the road for a dangerous game at UMass but didn't fall into the trap, coming out a 72-58 winner. Charlotte now sits a top the conference, tied with Temple and Xavier at 6-1, and is 16-5 overall with wins now against Temple and Louisville on their resume. They now sit at #38 in the RPI, and things are looking good for their first bid since 2005.
2. Baylor The Bears have kind of been hovering under the radar, especially since they started 2-3 in Big 12 play, but it's time for them to make their run and it started on Saturday with a huge win over Texas in Austin. That 3-3 record is a bit deceiving because they've played three ranked teams already, and any team with wins at South Carolina and over Xavier on a neutral court is a team to be reckoned with. Throwout a bizarre loss at Colorado and this is a very impressive team. They lost to Kansas by just six in Lawrence and lost by just two to Kansas State and their only other loss was by three to Alabama in Orlando. Baylor now plays a string of unranked teams - 9 in a row, with only Missouri having a shot to be ranked at any point - before closing with Texas at home. Yep, the Bears are set up great to be dancing in March, although now the DWG Jinx probably guarantees that things are about to come crashing down.
3. Virginia. If you pay any attention to the ACC you'd know that the Cavs haven't been relevant since the days of Harold Deane and Curtis "The Curt-Man" Staples, but suddenly things are getting awfully interesting in Charlottesville, culminating in a huge 75-60 win over UNC in Chapel Hill. Yes, the Heels are probably having their worst year in, well, a very long time, but still the symbolism of winning in the Dean Dome has got to be huge for Virginia, not to mention they are suddenly 4-2 and just a half game behind Duke in the ACC. If they hadn't let their game against Virginia Tech, a game they led by 10 with 3:44 left, slip through their fingers they'd be the talk of the nation at 5-1. Their are too many bad losses, not enough signature wins, and an RPI over 100 right now, so we probably aren't looking at a tournament team or anything, but things are looking way, way, way up for UVA. Super stud Sylvan Landesberg is just a sophomore, and forward Mike Scott is just a junior, and both should be back (slight chance Landesberg does something dumb and goes into the draft). Add in a great recruiting class for next year and the fact that they have a guy named Mustapha Farrakhan, and it seems captain boring Tony Bennett has things moving in the right direction. All I know is I'm scared of a guy named Farrakhan, and I really want another Curtis Staples in my life. Fuck J.J. Redick.
4. Vanderbilt. Sure, they lost by 13 at Kentucky on Saturday, but that doens't discount a great, great win earlier in the week when they went into Tennessee and beat the Vols 85-76. That win brought the Commodores to 5-0 in the conference (now 5-1) and was their tenth straight win. Really a very good win over a fellow SEC title contender, with guard Jermaine Beal leading the way with 25 and four other players in double figures. Prior to the season I read some kind of preview that predicted Vandy as a sweet 16 team. I didn't buy it, because I don't believe in non-Derrick Byars Vanderbilt teams, especially when they're read by a big dopey white center. Maybe it's time to start believing. I think Journey would probably want it that way.
5. South Florida. The Bulls beat Seton Hall on Thursday, and, more impressively, Pitt on Sunday and this is special for a couple of reasons, outside of just being a pretty impressive couple of wins. First, I've always had a soft spot in my heart for USF because Snacks and I went and saw a game of theirs when we were kids and on a family vacation in St. Pete, back in the days of B.B. Walden and Alton Jackson. Second, the win over the Hall was the second in a row for the Bulls - the first time they have ever had consecutive wins since joining the Big East, and obviously the win over Pitt gives them three straight for the first time. They aren't going to be anywhere near the NCAA tournament, but could be a pretty good NIT team. Dominique Jones is a pretty incredible player who ranks in the top 3 in scoring, top 10 in assists, and top 25 in rebounding in the Big East and put up a line of 46-10-8 in their win over Providence last week and tossed up 37 in that win over Pitt. You know what, forget about all that Gopher vs. Wichita State in the NIT talk, I'm now hoping to get South Florida in the Barn.
WHO SUCKED
1. Gopher basketball. Well that was pretty damn disgusting. I mean seriously, have you ever seen anything so pathetic as that "effort" the Gophers put in on the defensive end? 73% for the first half and 63% overall - and the only reason it was as low as 63% is because the Buckeyes finally started missing shots as the game wound down after it was well in hand. And it wasn't just that Ohio State was crazy hot or anything, but that they could do anything they wanted at any time. Basically they could have just chose on any given possession - layup? Alley-oop? Wide open three? Wide open jump shot? It didn't matter, they were wide open anywhere and everywhere every single trip down the court.
I could try to write more, but what else is there to say, really? They got their asses whooped on talent, execution, and effort. No real point on digging any deeper than that. I could overlook a lot since I consider OSU a Final Four team, but this was too much for me. As Grandslam texted me, "this team will be lucky to be in invited to the NIT." I'm not quite ready to go that far (I think they're a lock for the NIT), but this was sickening on a number of levels, and there is A LOT that needs to change between now and next Saturday or they're going to lose to Penn State. This would actually be a great time to have a home game against like, SDSU on Wednesday, but they don't have anything except practice against each other. That ought to do wonders for their confidence on offense at least, since nobody plays any god damn defense on this team anyway.
2. UCONN. Just last week UCONN was looking like a major player after beating then #1 Texas, but this week was certainly a disaster. First they lost on the road at Providence, who isn't remotely a tournament team, despite having led by ten in the first half. They then followed that with a 2-point loss at home to Marquette on an incredible shot by Jimmy Butler with three seconds left - which followed Kemba Walker's airball from about 8 feet that would have given the Huskies the lead. UCONN probably doesn't have to worry much about making the tournament (currently a 5-seed according to Lunardi), but they can't exactly relax either, especially since these were two games they were supposed to win. At 3-5 in the Big East now, they have just four home games left (against six roadies) and suddenly a lot less margin for error. They're at Louisville tonight, that would be a pretty good start.
3. Duke. You know, I'm starting to think this Duke team isn't all that good, and is really overrated as a top ten team. They got absolutely smoked by Georgetown on Saturday, and the final score of 89-77 doesn't show remotely how thorough of an ass-whooping this was. The Blue Devils were completely beaten in every phase of the game, had no answer for Greg Monroe, and just overall played flat and uninspired ball - or maybe they just aren't that good. They're now 1-4 in road games this season, and have looked completely average in games against not just G-Town but NC State and Georgia Tech as well. It's a pretty simple formula, really, the Blue Devils have just three guys: Scheyer, Singler, and Nolan Smith. Shut them down, as Georgetown did (36% shooting, 8 turnovers), and you can beat them - there's nobody else here at all. No chance this team makes a run in March, look for a first or second round loss.
4. Conference USA. With Memphis down, and a number of teams "up", this was supposed to be the year of multiple bids for poor little CUSA. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, Houston, Tulsa, and Marshall were all supposed to be in play for a March bid. Well, things aren't looking good. This weekend Memphis lost to Southern Methodist and now have an RPI of 79 which is only that high becaus ethey've played a tough schedule - but beaten nobody. UAB, the best bet for an at-large, also lost to UTEP, and although their RPI is still at 27, they can't afford many more losses. Marshall lost to both Memphis and Houston, giving them four straight losses and droppin them completely out of the at-large conversation. Houston's been a complete failure, is just 11-9, and has an RPI of 141. Even Tulsa, at 6-1, is nowhere near a sure thing despite doing nothing really wrong, but they haven't done anything great either and are borderline as you can get at an RPI of 58. Forget about a whole bunch of bids, C-USA will have to happy if they get two at this point. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, and Tulsa are still alive, and it's going to come down to ever takes care of the others. If nobody separates themself, we're looking at a one-bid league once again, and it's probably just time to shut 'er down.
Actually, this might be a good time for the Gophers to leave the Big Ten so it can get back to just ten teams, and join C-USA. At least they could compete.
5. Gopher basketball. God dammit that was pathetic. How do you just let The Werewolf get to the rim any time he wants? How do you let Dallas Lauderdale get three dunks? Why can't Devoe Joseph play defense? Why does a great "little things" player like Damian Johnson make so many dumb mistakes on the little things? Why can Ohio State find Diebler for wide open shots over and over again, but the Gophers couldn't find Hoffarber if they were playing against Gimli and a bunch of hobbits? Is anybody else as frustrated as I am? Wasn't this supposed to be a big year? Wasn't a NCAA berth to be expected, and the minimum this year? I swear I'm going to move to some other state and buy season tickets to the closest college and just shift my allegiances, nothing can be worse than this. Seriously, I just don't know what to do. This is a picture of me that Mrs. W snapped last night after the game:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Charlotte. If the 49ers want an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament they'll have to be nearly perfect in their A-10 season, and by perfect I mean don't lose any games to inferior teams and steal a bunch from the top of the conference - this week could be their blueprint. They got a shot at a top team coming to their place in Temple, and beat them 74-64, and then took to the road for a dangerous game at UMass but didn't fall into the trap, coming out a 72-58 winner. Charlotte now sits a top the conference, tied with Temple and Xavier at 6-1, and is 16-5 overall with wins now against Temple and Louisville on their resume. They now sit at #38 in the RPI, and things are looking good for their first bid since 2005.
2. Baylor The Bears have kind of been hovering under the radar, especially since they started 2-3 in Big 12 play, but it's time for them to make their run and it started on Saturday with a huge win over Texas in Austin. That 3-3 record is a bit deceiving because they've played three ranked teams already, and any team with wins at South Carolina and over Xavier on a neutral court is a team to be reckoned with. Throwout a bizarre loss at Colorado and this is a very impressive team. They lost to Kansas by just six in Lawrence and lost by just two to Kansas State and their only other loss was by three to Alabama in Orlando. Baylor now plays a string of unranked teams - 9 in a row, with only Missouri having a shot to be ranked at any point - before closing with Texas at home. Yep, the Bears are set up great to be dancing in March, although now the DWG Jinx probably guarantees that things are about to come crashing down.
3. Virginia. If you pay any attention to the ACC you'd know that the Cavs haven't been relevant since the days of Harold Deane and Curtis "The Curt-Man" Staples, but suddenly things are getting awfully interesting in Charlottesville, culminating in a huge 75-60 win over UNC in Chapel Hill. Yes, the Heels are probably having their worst year in, well, a very long time, but still the symbolism of winning in the Dean Dome has got to be huge for Virginia, not to mention they are suddenly 4-2 and just a half game behind Duke in the ACC. If they hadn't let their game against Virginia Tech, a game they led by 10 with 3:44 left, slip through their fingers they'd be the talk of the nation at 5-1. Their are too many bad losses, not enough signature wins, and an RPI over 100 right now, so we probably aren't looking at a tournament team or anything, but things are looking way, way, way up for UVA. Super stud Sylvan Landesberg is just a sophomore, and forward Mike Scott is just a junior, and both should be back (slight chance Landesberg does something dumb and goes into the draft). Add in a great recruiting class for next year and the fact that they have a guy named Mustapha Farrakhan, and it seems captain boring Tony Bennett has things moving in the right direction. All I know is I'm scared of a guy named Farrakhan, and I really want another Curtis Staples in my life. Fuck J.J. Redick.
4. Vanderbilt. Sure, they lost by 13 at Kentucky on Saturday, but that doens't discount a great, great win earlier in the week when they went into Tennessee and beat the Vols 85-76. That win brought the Commodores to 5-0 in the conference (now 5-1) and was their tenth straight win. Really a very good win over a fellow SEC title contender, with guard Jermaine Beal leading the way with 25 and four other players in double figures. Prior to the season I read some kind of preview that predicted Vandy as a sweet 16 team. I didn't buy it, because I don't believe in non-Derrick Byars Vanderbilt teams, especially when they're read by a big dopey white center. Maybe it's time to start believing. I think Journey would probably want it that way.
5. South Florida. The Bulls beat Seton Hall on Thursday, and, more impressively, Pitt on Sunday and this is special for a couple of reasons, outside of just being a pretty impressive couple of wins. First, I've always had a soft spot in my heart for USF because Snacks and I went and saw a game of theirs when we were kids and on a family vacation in St. Pete, back in the days of B.B. Walden and Alton Jackson. Second, the win over the Hall was the second in a row for the Bulls - the first time they have ever had consecutive wins since joining the Big East, and obviously the win over Pitt gives them three straight for the first time. They aren't going to be anywhere near the NCAA tournament, but could be a pretty good NIT team. Dominique Jones is a pretty incredible player who ranks in the top 3 in scoring, top 10 in assists, and top 25 in rebounding in the Big East and put up a line of 46-10-8 in their win over Providence last week and tossed up 37 in that win over Pitt. You know what, forget about all that Gopher vs. Wichita State in the NIT talk, I'm now hoping to get South Florida in the Barn.
WHO SUCKED
1. Gopher basketball. Well that was pretty damn disgusting. I mean seriously, have you ever seen anything so pathetic as that "effort" the Gophers put in on the defensive end? 73% for the first half and 63% overall - and the only reason it was as low as 63% is because the Buckeyes finally started missing shots as the game wound down after it was well in hand. And it wasn't just that Ohio State was crazy hot or anything, but that they could do anything they wanted at any time. Basically they could have just chose on any given possession - layup? Alley-oop? Wide open three? Wide open jump shot? It didn't matter, they were wide open anywhere and everywhere every single trip down the court.
I could try to write more, but what else is there to say, really? They got their asses whooped on talent, execution, and effort. No real point on digging any deeper than that. I could overlook a lot since I consider OSU a Final Four team, but this was too much for me. As Grandslam texted me, "this team will be lucky to be in invited to the NIT." I'm not quite ready to go that far (I think they're a lock for the NIT), but this was sickening on a number of levels, and there is A LOT that needs to change between now and next Saturday or they're going to lose to Penn State. This would actually be a great time to have a home game against like, SDSU on Wednesday, but they don't have anything except practice against each other. That ought to do wonders for their confidence on offense at least, since nobody plays any god damn defense on this team anyway.
2. UCONN. Just last week UCONN was looking like a major player after beating then #1 Texas, but this week was certainly a disaster. First they lost on the road at Providence, who isn't remotely a tournament team, despite having led by ten in the first half. They then followed that with a 2-point loss at home to Marquette on an incredible shot by Jimmy Butler with three seconds left - which followed Kemba Walker's airball from about 8 feet that would have given the Huskies the lead. UCONN probably doesn't have to worry much about making the tournament (currently a 5-seed according to Lunardi), but they can't exactly relax either, especially since these were two games they were supposed to win. At 3-5 in the Big East now, they have just four home games left (against six roadies) and suddenly a lot less margin for error. They're at Louisville tonight, that would be a pretty good start.
3. Duke. You know, I'm starting to think this Duke team isn't all that good, and is really overrated as a top ten team. They got absolutely smoked by Georgetown on Saturday, and the final score of 89-77 doesn't show remotely how thorough of an ass-whooping this was. The Blue Devils were completely beaten in every phase of the game, had no answer for Greg Monroe, and just overall played flat and uninspired ball - or maybe they just aren't that good. They're now 1-4 in road games this season, and have looked completely average in games against not just G-Town but NC State and Georgia Tech as well. It's a pretty simple formula, really, the Blue Devils have just three guys: Scheyer, Singler, and Nolan Smith. Shut them down, as Georgetown did (36% shooting, 8 turnovers), and you can beat them - there's nobody else here at all. No chance this team makes a run in March, look for a first or second round loss.
4. Conference USA. With Memphis down, and a number of teams "up", this was supposed to be the year of multiple bids for poor little CUSA. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, Houston, Tulsa, and Marshall were all supposed to be in play for a March bid. Well, things aren't looking good. This weekend Memphis lost to Southern Methodist and now have an RPI of 79 which is only that high becaus ethey've played a tough schedule - but beaten nobody. UAB, the best bet for an at-large, also lost to UTEP, and although their RPI is still at 27, they can't afford many more losses. Marshall lost to both Memphis and Houston, giving them four straight losses and droppin them completely out of the at-large conversation. Houston's been a complete failure, is just 11-9, and has an RPI of 141. Even Tulsa, at 6-1, is nowhere near a sure thing despite doing nothing really wrong, but they haven't done anything great either and are borderline as you can get at an RPI of 58. Forget about a whole bunch of bids, C-USA will have to happy if they get two at this point. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, and Tulsa are still alive, and it's going to come down to ever takes care of the others. If nobody separates themself, we're looking at a one-bid league once again, and it's probably just time to shut 'er down.
Actually, this might be a good time for the Gophers to leave the Big Ten so it can get back to just ten teams, and join C-USA. At least they could compete.
5. Gopher basketball. God dammit that was pathetic. How do you just let The Werewolf get to the rim any time he wants? How do you let Dallas Lauderdale get three dunks? Why can't Devoe Joseph play defense? Why does a great "little things" player like Damian Johnson make so many dumb mistakes on the little things? Why can Ohio State find Diebler for wide open shots over and over again, but the Gophers couldn't find Hoffarber if they were playing against Gimli and a bunch of hobbits? Is anybody else as frustrated as I am? Wasn't this supposed to be a big year? Wasn't a NCAA berth to be expected, and the minimum this year? I swear I'm going to move to some other state and buy season tickets to the closest college and just shift my allegiances, nothing can be worse than this. Seriously, I just don't know what to do. This is a picture of me that Mrs. W snapped last night after the game:
Please help.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Where for art thou, Deolis Guerra?
Yes, I know we are in the heart of the Big Ten season, but if I write too many times consecutively about Gopher basketball I start to have heart palpitations mixed with a deep depression, and since I already took every pill in the house (uppers, downers, hallucinagins, antidepressants and sexual performance enhancers all in play) after the Indiana loss, my only possible solace here is to turn to Twins talk. Since it's not even February yet, optimism can reign supreme. Maybe. Until June, at least.
Keith Law of ESPN.com put out his list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, and I'm going to go ahead and give a few comments about those players of which I am knowledgeable enough to speak, and a few that I'm probably not. Full list is at that link right there above. If you still have your little heart set on reading about the Gophers, the preview of the Ohio State game is in the post directly below this one. [SPOILER: I bet they lose.].
The interesting people, in reverse order:
97. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins. You remember this guy, he's the supposed 16 year old from the Dominican the Twins signed this summer when they shockingly opened up the wallet. He signed too late last year so there really isn't any way to evaluate him against professional pitching, but he's supposed to have all the tools. He projects to end up becoming a 3b, which means he'll probably be ready to take over just as Danny Valencia is leaving to sign a 7-year, $140-million contract with the Yankees.
91. Jose Iglesias, SS, Red Sox. I mostly just included him because being given that name must have sucked something fierce. Also, Law says he could end up as an "Adam Everett" at worst. Dude, that's pretty bad. I wouldn't be using that as a positive argument.
90. Jake Arrieta, SP, Orioles. He finished last year in triple-A and is already 23, so there's a good chance he'll be in the bigs this year. The Orioles are actually quietly starting to move back in the right direction after many, many, many years of spending stupidly and making really dumb decisions. They have a nice lineup this year, and a good number of young arms. If everything works out, they might end up challenging for second in the division sometime in the next ten years.
89. Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins. Above average command and control, three good pitches, a lot of groundballs, and a 93 mph heater - sounds like a prototypical Twins pitcher, except this one was projected to be the 10-12th pick in the draft. The Twins stole him at 22 due to a stress fracture in his arm, but all indications are he's back to normal. And hopefully not like the Liriano back-to-normal, but a real back-to-normal.
87. Aaron Crow, SP, Royals. Could be a Greinke-level monster once he gets to the bigs. I'm hoping the Royals do something really stupid and end up trading him for like, Alfonso Soriano or something just to get him out of the Twins' division.
73. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets. I think this guy has been on the list for about five years now, but has yet to make any real progress due to constant injuries. He was the top prospect in the Mets system at one point, but, as Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey have shown us, that doesn't necessarily mean squat.
72. Mike Leake, SP, Reds. I don't think this is Kelly's dad, since they spell their last name's differently and he'd be far too old at this point.
70. Austin Jackson, OF, Yankees. If this name rings a bell it's probably because at one point his name was being bandied about in the Johan discussion all those many years ago, when we were still optimistic that we would end up getting more than two seasons of great center field defense and a whole bunch of flailing about at the plate out of the best pitcher of the 00s. Well, now he's in the Tigers' system, coming over for Curtis Granderson. At 23 and with five years in the minors, it's probably now or never.
58. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox. Coming soon to a Twins' game near you. He might start the year in the minors, but he'll be in the majors at some point and might even end up starting by the end of the year. His last two seasons he's OPSed .939 and .921 at AAA and A+ ball, although his defense is subpar at this point.
57. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates. This is the main guy the Pirates picked up in the Damaso Marte/Xavier Nady trade with the Yankees, so it would be pretty sweet if he ends up being good. Plus, I'm still rooting for the Pirates. I think they're starting to do some smart things, and this would be a big step in the right direction - and it's starting get late on his clock, so a good year this year would be a nice start.
54. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers. This is why they traded J.J. Hardy. He should be in the bigs this year, so we'll see if that works out for them. Well, it pretty much already will when Carlos Gomez turns into the next Tim Raines, but we'll see how the SS part works out.
52. Hank Conger, C, Angels. Just wanted to point out that this guy's name is Hank and he's Asian. That's weird.
42. Wilson Ramos, C, Twins. There's no doubt this guy can hit a ton and is a very good catcher as well, as long as he can stay healthy. If the Twins end up not signing Mauer, he's the catcher of the future. If they do, he's going to be a very valuable chip - the kind that could be used to grab some valuable help for a pennant race at the trade deadline. I'm just kidding of course, you know they'll never end up trading him, regardless of what kind of help is available that they would need.
40. Kyle Drabek, SP, Blue Jays. Maybe the key to the Halladay/Lee deal, Drabek has a chance to end up as a top-end pitcher if he can recover all the way from Tommy John surgery. He returned last year and had a very good showing at A and AA ball, so things look good for the kid.
33. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics. I say first baseman, but it's pretty clear this guy is really more of a DH. There's no doubt he can hit, though. He hit 25 home runs in the minors in 2007, 39 in 2008, and 28 in 2009 (while hitting .329/.422/.570). I would anticipate him starting at AAA, but we should see him in the majors this year - probably taking Jesse Crain deep.
30. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs. I just get a kick out of this guy because he just hates to walk. Hates it. In his minor-league career he's just 26 times in 830 pro plate appearances. For reference, that's the same amount of walks Carlos Gomez had in his first year with the Twins, but Gomez had 200 less plate appearances, and nine fewer than Delmon Young had, again in about 200 less at bats. I mean, this guy might very well be insane.
28. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants. Was a top-5 or top-10 prospect on pretty much everybody's list at the beginning of last year, but has fallen a bit out of favor due to a drop in velocity. Of course, he looked great in his 10 major-league innings last year, posting a 1.80 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with a nice 9.0 K/9 ratio. Velocity drop or no, those are really impressive numbers for a 19-year old major leaguer. I'm stunned that he's as low as 28th. Stupifyed, really. Like a spell from Ginny Weasley's wand.
25. Zack Britton, SP, Orioles. Just another young O's pitcher like I was talking about before, although he's probably not quite major-league ready just yet.
22. Tyler Matzek, SP, Rockies. I just wanted to mention him here because he's the top prospect in the Rockies' system and the Rocks are my National League team. He's brand spanking new, just picked last year right out of high school, so we have no data to look at, but he's apparently already got four pretty good pitches. Could be the next Jason Marquis - stay tuned.
19. Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins. I feel encouraged by having a Twin in the top 20, even if the team's overall farm system is only ranked 13th overall. Basically the scouting report on this kid is that he's a true five-tool prospect, who, although he has a ways to go to completely realize those tools, has as much potential as anybody, especially for a 19-year old. He's everything we wanted Carlos Gomez to be.
16. Aroldis Chapman, SP, Reds. I smell bust. Way to blow your load on an absolute question mark, Cincinnati. Seriously, you outbid the Yankees for a Cuban. I have a feeling this was kind of like an auction for something you don't really want, but you're sure somebody else wants and you want to keep bidding them up, trying to make them pay more. Then they stop bidding when you're winning, and you're like "oh shit."
17 & 15. Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis, SPs, Rays. Just in case you thought the Rays didn't have enough young, potential superstars. Davis cracked the majors last year and looked good in his six starts and should start the year as part of the Rays' rotation, and Hellickson might join him there after having a very good year in AAA in 2009.
13. Neftali Perez, SP, Rangers. The first of three Rangers in the top 13 on this list, and that doesn't even count Elvis Andrus, last season's runner-up for AL Rookie-of-the-Year. Or Nelson Cruz, who made the all-star team in hi second season. Or Chris Davis, who took a step back last year but hit 17 homers in 317 PAs as a rookie two years ago. Or their bunch of young pitching prospects. How did the Rangers suddenly end up looking so promising?
11. Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles. Yet another Oriole pitcher. Should be in the rotation from the get-go this season.
9. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers. Another Ranger. Should be a better fielding, switch-hitting Billy Butler with more power. I'm already scared.
8. Dustin Ackley, OF/1B, Mariners. The second-pick in last year's draft, Ackley is the rare position player who is returning from Tommy John surgery - thus the move from the OF to 1B. The Mariners have discussed making him a 2B, which with his combination of hitting for average/hitting for power/plate discipline, would have a very good chance of making him a perennial all-star.
7. Martin Perez, SP, Rangers. The last of the Rangers. I've never even heard of this guy, but I thought I should put him in here since I'm all up on Texas's nuts and everything.
4. Buster Posey, C, Giants. That's either the best name I've ever heard, or the worst name I've ever heard.
3. Carlos Santana, C, Indians. You got the kinda lovin' that can be so smooth, yeah, give me heart, make it real, or else forget about it. (obvious, but I bet you laughed anyway. or smiled at least. I bet you smiled. Come on. It was funnier than Leno. Admit that much you tough-love son of a bitch).
2. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals. Putting Strasburg second reeks of either contrarianism or an overreaction to his mediocre showing in fall ball. Either way, there's little doubt he's going to be a star. When your downside is as a #2 starter, you know you've got potential. Of course, there's always the ballad of Brien Taylor, if you need a reminder of how potential doens't always = success.
1. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves. I hadn't heard of this dude before, which embarrasses me somewhat, but he ripped the crap out of AA pitching last year, and had a lot of success in a very short AAA stint to close the year. Law says he'll be a star, so I guess we should pay some attention here.
There's the list. There were four notable omissions, or at least there were four names that popped into my head without really thinking about it, so I'll touch on them quickly before I close:
1. Ben Revere, OF, Twins. Depending on who you ask, he's either a future star (John Sickels has him #2 in the system), or nothing more than Juan Pierre (Law's concern). I'm sure you're an idiot who thinks Juan Pierre is good because he's fast and hits right around .300, but that's because you're stupid and I wish I was a GM and you were a GM and then I could trade you Pierre and get way too much for him and you'd feel good about it.
God you're dumb. Anyway, I've seen his absolute upside is Kenny Lofton, which would be pretty good. Let's all hope for that, and not run around trying to make out wiht Juan Pierre, ok?
2. Deolis Guerra, P, Twins. Sigh. The last remaining piece of from the trading of Johan. God I miss him so much. Instead we have this guy. He doesn't make Law's top 10 list for the Twins, and he doesn't make Sickels' top 20. He hasn't posed an ERA under 4.01 in the last three years. FML.
3. Tim Alderson, P, Pirates. Notable because this is who the Giants traded to get Freddy Sanchez. At one point considered a pretty big-time prospect, it seems Alderson has fallen out of favor, ranking #6 on Law's Pirate list and #5 on Sickels' list - not bad, but not as elite as he once was. Prospect in free-fall, or underrated? It's the Pirates, so I'm going to go with the free-fall thing.
4. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers. I actually only know of him because when I learned Polanco might be available I started doing some digging into the fan/blog world of the Tigers and found out most fans were just fine with getting rid of Placido because Sizemore (who I assume is related to either Grady or Tom) was waiting in the wings. He broke his ankle like some kind of girl late in the year last season, but he still ranks #6 on Sickels' list and #5 on Law's of overall Tiger prospects. Expect to be annoyed by him early and often.
So there's your list. Four Twin prospects can't be bad, especially considering the team is fairly young as is. The one major criticism I've seen of the Twins' system is that there isn't much there that is ready right now, but it's in decent shape for future years and I have no problem with that. Of course, if they don't sign Mauer I'll probably just kill myself along with the rest of the state. They all worship him zombie-like, but I can't fault them because he's really just that good (although most of you cretins worship him for the wrong reasons). If there is no signing, short of a trade to Texas for Teagarden, Andrus, Smoak, and Perez, I am pretty sure I'm just going give up and move to either New York or Pittsburgh. At least you know enough to either believe or give up in those states. I'm sick of these games here. It's like taking some broad to the drive in, you don't know what you're getting. I'd rather take the slut or the good-girl, not some middle of road confusing person. I dont' know if you can tell, but I suspect you can, I've been getting progressively drunker as this post has gone on. At this point I've already given up and am trying to figure out ways to trade Mauer and Morneau for more prospects.
"Are you guys ready? We better get going if we're going to stay ahead of the weather."
Keith Law of ESPN.com put out his list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, and I'm going to go ahead and give a few comments about those players of which I am knowledgeable enough to speak, and a few that I'm probably not. Full list is at that link right there above. If you still have your little heart set on reading about the Gophers, the preview of the Ohio State game is in the post directly below this one. [SPOILER: I bet they lose.].
The interesting people, in reverse order:
97. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins. You remember this guy, he's the supposed 16 year old from the Dominican the Twins signed this summer when they shockingly opened up the wallet. He signed too late last year so there really isn't any way to evaluate him against professional pitching, but he's supposed to have all the tools. He projects to end up becoming a 3b, which means he'll probably be ready to take over just as Danny Valencia is leaving to sign a 7-year, $140-million contract with the Yankees.
91. Jose Iglesias, SS, Red Sox. I mostly just included him because being given that name must have sucked something fierce. Also, Law says he could end up as an "Adam Everett" at worst. Dude, that's pretty bad. I wouldn't be using that as a positive argument.
90. Jake Arrieta, SP, Orioles. He finished last year in triple-A and is already 23, so there's a good chance he'll be in the bigs this year. The Orioles are actually quietly starting to move back in the right direction after many, many, many years of spending stupidly and making really dumb decisions. They have a nice lineup this year, and a good number of young arms. If everything works out, they might end up challenging for second in the division sometime in the next ten years.
89. Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins. Above average command and control, three good pitches, a lot of groundballs, and a 93 mph heater - sounds like a prototypical Twins pitcher, except this one was projected to be the 10-12th pick in the draft. The Twins stole him at 22 due to a stress fracture in his arm, but all indications are he's back to normal. And hopefully not like the Liriano back-to-normal, but a real back-to-normal.
87. Aaron Crow, SP, Royals. Could be a Greinke-level monster once he gets to the bigs. I'm hoping the Royals do something really stupid and end up trading him for like, Alfonso Soriano or something just to get him out of the Twins' division.
73. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets. I think this guy has been on the list for about five years now, but has yet to make any real progress due to constant injuries. He was the top prospect in the Mets system at one point, but, as Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey have shown us, that doesn't necessarily mean squat.
72. Mike Leake, SP, Reds. I don't think this is Kelly's dad, since they spell their last name's differently and he'd be far too old at this point.
70. Austin Jackson, OF, Yankees. If this name rings a bell it's probably because at one point his name was being bandied about in the Johan discussion all those many years ago, when we were still optimistic that we would end up getting more than two seasons of great center field defense and a whole bunch of flailing about at the plate out of the best pitcher of the 00s. Well, now he's in the Tigers' system, coming over for Curtis Granderson. At 23 and with five years in the minors, it's probably now or never.
58. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox. Coming soon to a Twins' game near you. He might start the year in the minors, but he'll be in the majors at some point and might even end up starting by the end of the year. His last two seasons he's OPSed .939 and .921 at AAA and A+ ball, although his defense is subpar at this point.
57. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates. This is the main guy the Pirates picked up in the Damaso Marte/Xavier Nady trade with the Yankees, so it would be pretty sweet if he ends up being good. Plus, I'm still rooting for the Pirates. I think they're starting to do some smart things, and this would be a big step in the right direction - and it's starting get late on his clock, so a good year this year would be a nice start.
54. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers. This is why they traded J.J. Hardy. He should be in the bigs this year, so we'll see if that works out for them. Well, it pretty much already will when Carlos Gomez turns into the next Tim Raines, but we'll see how the SS part works out.
52. Hank Conger, C, Angels. Just wanted to point out that this guy's name is Hank and he's Asian. That's weird.
42. Wilson Ramos, C, Twins. There's no doubt this guy can hit a ton and is a very good catcher as well, as long as he can stay healthy. If the Twins end up not signing Mauer, he's the catcher of the future. If they do, he's going to be a very valuable chip - the kind that could be used to grab some valuable help for a pennant race at the trade deadline. I'm just kidding of course, you know they'll never end up trading him, regardless of what kind of help is available that they would need.
40. Kyle Drabek, SP, Blue Jays. Maybe the key to the Halladay/Lee deal, Drabek has a chance to end up as a top-end pitcher if he can recover all the way from Tommy John surgery. He returned last year and had a very good showing at A and AA ball, so things look good for the kid.
33. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics. I say first baseman, but it's pretty clear this guy is really more of a DH. There's no doubt he can hit, though. He hit 25 home runs in the minors in 2007, 39 in 2008, and 28 in 2009 (while hitting .329/.422/.570). I would anticipate him starting at AAA, but we should see him in the majors this year - probably taking Jesse Crain deep.
30. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs. I just get a kick out of this guy because he just hates to walk. Hates it. In his minor-league career he's just 26 times in 830 pro plate appearances. For reference, that's the same amount of walks Carlos Gomez had in his first year with the Twins, but Gomez had 200 less plate appearances, and nine fewer than Delmon Young had, again in about 200 less at bats. I mean, this guy might very well be insane.
28. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants. Was a top-5 or top-10 prospect on pretty much everybody's list at the beginning of last year, but has fallen a bit out of favor due to a drop in velocity. Of course, he looked great in his 10 major-league innings last year, posting a 1.80 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with a nice 9.0 K/9 ratio. Velocity drop or no, those are really impressive numbers for a 19-year old major leaguer. I'm stunned that he's as low as 28th. Stupifyed, really. Like a spell from Ginny Weasley's wand.
25. Zack Britton, SP, Orioles. Just another young O's pitcher like I was talking about before, although he's probably not quite major-league ready just yet.
22. Tyler Matzek, SP, Rockies. I just wanted to mention him here because he's the top prospect in the Rockies' system and the Rocks are my National League team. He's brand spanking new, just picked last year right out of high school, so we have no data to look at, but he's apparently already got four pretty good pitches. Could be the next Jason Marquis - stay tuned.
19. Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins. I feel encouraged by having a Twin in the top 20, even if the team's overall farm system is only ranked 13th overall. Basically the scouting report on this kid is that he's a true five-tool prospect, who, although he has a ways to go to completely realize those tools, has as much potential as anybody, especially for a 19-year old. He's everything we wanted Carlos Gomez to be.
16. Aroldis Chapman, SP, Reds. I smell bust. Way to blow your load on an absolute question mark, Cincinnati. Seriously, you outbid the Yankees for a Cuban. I have a feeling this was kind of like an auction for something you don't really want, but you're sure somebody else wants and you want to keep bidding them up, trying to make them pay more. Then they stop bidding when you're winning, and you're like "oh shit."
17 & 15. Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis, SPs, Rays. Just in case you thought the Rays didn't have enough young, potential superstars. Davis cracked the majors last year and looked good in his six starts and should start the year as part of the Rays' rotation, and Hellickson might join him there after having a very good year in AAA in 2009.
13. Neftali Perez, SP, Rangers. The first of three Rangers in the top 13 on this list, and that doesn't even count Elvis Andrus, last season's runner-up for AL Rookie-of-the-Year. Or Nelson Cruz, who made the all-star team in hi second season. Or Chris Davis, who took a step back last year but hit 17 homers in 317 PAs as a rookie two years ago. Or their bunch of young pitching prospects. How did the Rangers suddenly end up looking so promising?
11. Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles. Yet another Oriole pitcher. Should be in the rotation from the get-go this season.
9. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers. Another Ranger. Should be a better fielding, switch-hitting Billy Butler with more power. I'm already scared.
8. Dustin Ackley, OF/1B, Mariners. The second-pick in last year's draft, Ackley is the rare position player who is returning from Tommy John surgery - thus the move from the OF to 1B. The Mariners have discussed making him a 2B, which with his combination of hitting for average/hitting for power/plate discipline, would have a very good chance of making him a perennial all-star.
7. Martin Perez, SP, Rangers. The last of the Rangers. I've never even heard of this guy, but I thought I should put him in here since I'm all up on Texas's nuts and everything.
4. Buster Posey, C, Giants. That's either the best name I've ever heard, or the worst name I've ever heard.
3. Carlos Santana, C, Indians. You got the kinda lovin' that can be so smooth, yeah, give me heart, make it real, or else forget about it. (obvious, but I bet you laughed anyway. or smiled at least. I bet you smiled. Come on. It was funnier than Leno. Admit that much you tough-love son of a bitch).
2. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals. Putting Strasburg second reeks of either contrarianism or an overreaction to his mediocre showing in fall ball. Either way, there's little doubt he's going to be a star. When your downside is as a #2 starter, you know you've got potential. Of course, there's always the ballad of Brien Taylor, if you need a reminder of how potential doens't always = success.
1. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves. I hadn't heard of this dude before, which embarrasses me somewhat, but he ripped the crap out of AA pitching last year, and had a lot of success in a very short AAA stint to close the year. Law says he'll be a star, so I guess we should pay some attention here.
There's the list. There were four notable omissions, or at least there were four names that popped into my head without really thinking about it, so I'll touch on them quickly before I close:
1. Ben Revere, OF, Twins. Depending on who you ask, he's either a future star (John Sickels has him #2 in the system), or nothing more than Juan Pierre (Law's concern). I'm sure you're an idiot who thinks Juan Pierre is good because he's fast and hits right around .300, but that's because you're stupid and I wish I was a GM and you were a GM and then I could trade you Pierre and get way too much for him and you'd feel good about it.
God you're dumb. Anyway, I've seen his absolute upside is Kenny Lofton, which would be pretty good. Let's all hope for that, and not run around trying to make out wiht Juan Pierre, ok?
2. Deolis Guerra, P, Twins. Sigh. The last remaining piece of from the trading of Johan. God I miss him so much. Instead we have this guy. He doesn't make Law's top 10 list for the Twins, and he doesn't make Sickels' top 20. He hasn't posed an ERA under 4.01 in the last three years. FML.
3. Tim Alderson, P, Pirates. Notable because this is who the Giants traded to get Freddy Sanchez. At one point considered a pretty big-time prospect, it seems Alderson has fallen out of favor, ranking #6 on Law's Pirate list and #5 on Sickels' list - not bad, but not as elite as he once was. Prospect in free-fall, or underrated? It's the Pirates, so I'm going to go with the free-fall thing.
4. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers. I actually only know of him because when I learned Polanco might be available I started doing some digging into the fan/blog world of the Tigers and found out most fans were just fine with getting rid of Placido because Sizemore (who I assume is related to either Grady or Tom) was waiting in the wings. He broke his ankle like some kind of girl late in the year last season, but he still ranks #6 on Sickels' list and #5 on Law's of overall Tiger prospects. Expect to be annoyed by him early and often.
So there's your list. Four Twin prospects can't be bad, especially considering the team is fairly young as is. The one major criticism I've seen of the Twins' system is that there isn't much there that is ready right now, but it's in decent shape for future years and I have no problem with that. Of course, if they don't sign Mauer I'll probably just kill myself along with the rest of the state. They all worship him zombie-like, but I can't fault them because he's really just that good (although most of you cretins worship him for the wrong reasons). If there is no signing, short of a trade to Texas for Teagarden, Andrus, Smoak, and Perez, I am pretty sure I'm just going give up and move to either New York or Pittsburgh. At least you know enough to either believe or give up in those states. I'm sick of these games here. It's like taking some broad to the drive in, you don't know what you're getting. I'd rather take the slut or the good-girl, not some middle of road confusing person. I dont' know if you can tell, but I suspect you can, I've been getting progressively drunker as this post has gone on. At this point I've already given up and am trying to figure out ways to trade Mauer and Morneau for more prospects.
"Are you guys ready? We better get going if we're going to stay ahead of the weather."
Thursday, January 28, 2010
F the Buckeyes
That's a terrible post title, but I couldn't really think of anything else because I'm so damn tired. Seriously, I'm exhausted. I probably have mono. Or AIDS. I haven't had any gay sex lately or hugged Magic Johnson, so it's probably not AIDS.
1. Is Ohio State more of a "final four" team like you said, or "not a top 100" team like Dawger said? It should be obvious at this point that any time Dawger and I disagree, you just take my side and you'll be good, and this is just another example. Since the Gophers beat them at Williams, they have won at Purdue, vs. Wisconsin, and at Iowa and lost at #12 West Virginia by 6. The team's RPI this year is 41, they're ranked 14th by Ken Pomeroy's numbers and 20th and 24th in the two polls, and are 12-3 when Evan Turner plays. I'll admit "final four team" might be a little bit strong, but "not a top 100" team is just plain old ludicrously stupid. Much like everything else that comes out of Dawger's mouth. You can still get them at 75-1 to win the National Championship. I recommend you throw a $5-spot on it.
2. So just how good is this Evan Turner? If you can get past the fact that he turns it over a ridiculous four times per game he's pretty damn good. His 18.4 ppg ranks third in the Big Ten. His 9.9 rebounds per game ranks first in the conference, and his 5.5 assists ranks second. He's also tied for fourth in steals per game at 1.7 and is twelfth in blocks at 0.9 per game. All this while shooting 55%, good for fourth in the Big Ten, and he's a guard. The team is 12-3 with him, including wins over Purdue, Florida State, and Cal, and is just 3-3 without him with a loss to Michigan. He might legitimately be the best player in college basketball this year, and if he hadn't gotten hurt would be a legit National Player of the Year candidate.
3. Tell me about the rest of guys, but be quick about it. I don't have all day. Fellow wings David Lighty and William Buford are basically knockoffs of Turner, and both can carry the team if they need to. Lighty scored 18 in the second-half alone this week against Iowa, and Buford played his best game of the year last weekend against West Virginia with 22 on 9-13 shooting. Jon Diebler is the only player in the conference with more three-pointers made than Blake Hoffarber this year, shoots 44% behind the line, and has hit five or more threes in a game seven-times already (and can get his own shot). Finally, manning the paint is Dallas Lauderdale, who is an offensive retard but leads the conference in blocked shots and is a pretty intimidating force in the middle - good thing the Gophers don't have anybody who can drive into the paint anyway.
4. How is the post-Al Nolen point guard thing going? Well Justin Cobbs has been a non-factor. He played just four minutes against Michigan State because he was way, way, way, way too freaking hyper resulting in two turnovers in those four minutes. In the next game against Northwestern he played better, putting in 12 minutes of work and getting almost nothing on his stat line, good or bad. I didn't notice him for his good play, but didn't notice him for bad either. Devoe Joseph had a great game against Michigan State with 16 points and 7 assists against just 1 turnover, but kind of disappeared against NW with just six points and four turnovers. So, in a word, pretty uneven.
I'm encouraged because both Joseph and Cobbs have shown flashes the past two games, but they'll need to play even better if there's an NCAA bid in the future. Ohio State doesn't match up well against quick point guards because there best guys are bigger wings and their only "true" point guard is a gigantic douchebag. I just don't know if either of our guys would be classified as a "quick" point guard. As usual and in every game the rest of the year, point guard play is going to be a huge key.
5. This would obviously be a huge win for the Gophers, is there any reason to believe? Not really. Ohio State is almost as good defensively as the Gophers, but are a far, far better offensive team - one of the best in the country (16th in offensive efficiency). They can thrive either in the halfcourt or in an up-and-down fast-paced game and have not only the best player out of the two teams, but maybe the best two or three. I'm hoping the Gophers can keep it close to the end and find a way to sneak a win out somehow, but I think a blowout is more likely (and not the good way).
Ohio State 74, Minnesota 62.
1. Is Ohio State more of a "final four" team like you said, or "not a top 100" team like Dawger said? It should be obvious at this point that any time Dawger and I disagree, you just take my side and you'll be good, and this is just another example. Since the Gophers beat them at Williams, they have won at Purdue, vs. Wisconsin, and at Iowa and lost at #12 West Virginia by 6. The team's RPI this year is 41, they're ranked 14th by Ken Pomeroy's numbers and 20th and 24th in the two polls, and are 12-3 when Evan Turner plays. I'll admit "final four team" might be a little bit strong, but "not a top 100" team is just plain old ludicrously stupid. Much like everything else that comes out of Dawger's mouth. You can still get them at 75-1 to win the National Championship. I recommend you throw a $5-spot on it.
2. So just how good is this Evan Turner? If you can get past the fact that he turns it over a ridiculous four times per game he's pretty damn good. His 18.4 ppg ranks third in the Big Ten. His 9.9 rebounds per game ranks first in the conference, and his 5.5 assists ranks second. He's also tied for fourth in steals per game at 1.7 and is twelfth in blocks at 0.9 per game. All this while shooting 55%, good for fourth in the Big Ten, and he's a guard. The team is 12-3 with him, including wins over Purdue, Florida State, and Cal, and is just 3-3 without him with a loss to Michigan. He might legitimately be the best player in college basketball this year, and if he hadn't gotten hurt would be a legit National Player of the Year candidate.
3. Tell me about the rest of guys, but be quick about it. I don't have all day. Fellow wings David Lighty and William Buford are basically knockoffs of Turner, and both can carry the team if they need to. Lighty scored 18 in the second-half alone this week against Iowa, and Buford played his best game of the year last weekend against West Virginia with 22 on 9-13 shooting. Jon Diebler is the only player in the conference with more three-pointers made than Blake Hoffarber this year, shoots 44% behind the line, and has hit five or more threes in a game seven-times already (and can get his own shot). Finally, manning the paint is Dallas Lauderdale, who is an offensive retard but leads the conference in blocked shots and is a pretty intimidating force in the middle - good thing the Gophers don't have anybody who can drive into the paint anyway.
4. How is the post-Al Nolen point guard thing going? Well Justin Cobbs has been a non-factor. He played just four minutes against Michigan State because he was way, way, way, way too freaking hyper resulting in two turnovers in those four minutes. In the next game against Northwestern he played better, putting in 12 minutes of work and getting almost nothing on his stat line, good or bad. I didn't notice him for his good play, but didn't notice him for bad either. Devoe Joseph had a great game against Michigan State with 16 points and 7 assists against just 1 turnover, but kind of disappeared against NW with just six points and four turnovers. So, in a word, pretty uneven.
I'm encouraged because both Joseph and Cobbs have shown flashes the past two games, but they'll need to play even better if there's an NCAA bid in the future. Ohio State doesn't match up well against quick point guards because there best guys are bigger wings and their only "true" point guard is a gigantic douchebag. I just don't know if either of our guys would be classified as a "quick" point guard. As usual and in every game the rest of the year, point guard play is going to be a huge key.
5. This would obviously be a huge win for the Gophers, is there any reason to believe? Not really. Ohio State is almost as good defensively as the Gophers, but are a far, far better offensive team - one of the best in the country (16th in offensive efficiency). They can thrive either in the halfcourt or in an up-and-down fast-paced game and have not only the best player out of the two teams, but maybe the best two or three. I'm hoping the Gophers can keep it close to the end and find a way to sneak a win out somehow, but I think a blowout is more likely (and not the good way).
Ohio State 74, Minnesota 62.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Good Lord Lazy
(pic added, just for Snake)
14:00 - Watching the game on tape delay, and I wasn't going to type up anything or live (taped) blog this, but it's time to say lazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazylazy. Sampson walks through the paint while a shot is in the air. Westbrook walks out to defend his man. Johnson lets the dribbler go right past him in transition. Hell, Hoffarber has looked like crap defensively but I'm actually more proud of him than anybody else because at least he's trying, he just doesn't have the ability. Seriously, this a pathetic effort. I try harder to listen when Mrs. W is talking about The Biggest Loser, and god knows I'm not trying very hard.
12:02 - I don't hate aggessive-brook, but jesus christ he drives me batty some times. There's a difference between being aggressive and just throwing up anything. You aren't Glen Rice. You don't have a "zone" like that. Calm the hell down. Of course, there are times where it's needed. I'm just saying. Not right now.
11:40 - we finally hit a tv timeout, and I'm pretty sure we just went all the way to the under 12 without a break. I could be wrong. I've had a few drinks. We had a work thing (thus the reason I'm watching this on Tivo). Oh, you want to know what I had? I went with the Buffalo Ribeye (that's bison, not buffalo sauce, which I already had to explain once tonight) with fingerling potatoes and a couple absolut tonics. No salad, because the communist restaurant we went to didn't have caesar salad. What the F?
11:23 - Huh. So even if you miss a timeout, they just give back to back ones even if you're under 12 minutes already. Interesting. I guess the Marines and the National Geographic Channel aren't just gonna sell themselves. (NOTE: I love the Nat Geo channel. Naked Science and Hooked! are both awesome).
11:00 - I think Mrkovic has had his shot blocked six times already. No joke. I should also mention here that Northwestern isn't running that queer zone. I'd bet anything they bust in out to start the second half. Also Mrkovic just had his shot blocked again, this time Rodney rejected it so hard Mrkys boyfriend died.
9:20 - Nobody in history has missed as many close-in shots as Paul Carter. It's not possible.
8:37 - By the way, the T-Wolves were down 40-16 after the first quarter tonight. It's the only time a Minnesota team has been outscored by 24 points in one quarter. Not counting Gopher football. *rimshot*
7:20 - Bostick for three! I'm telling you, he'd be the leading scorer in the Missouri Valley, not counting that dude from Drake.
5:56 - Tie ball game at 21 after a Damian dunk. That's two fantasy points, bitches. And a Westbrook three gives the team the lead after a steal off the press that for some odd reason wasn't run at all against the turnover prone Spartans. But we aren't allowed to question Tubby. Forget I said that.
5:31 - Shurna dunk. That's two fantasy points, bitches.
4:45 - By the way, if you haven't yet, check out the recruiting class Pastner is bringing in at Memphis next year. It's so good that I am pretty sure I'm going to write a post about it at some point, but if you want a preview check it out. It makes the Fab Five or this year's Kentucky class look like your typical Monson class (Minnesota, not Gonzaga).
4:15 - I have no idea what this offense is, but two Gophers just made the same cut, from the same spot to the same spot. I'm going to assume that's not correct.
3:25 - Holy crap the Twins actually signed Thome? Awesome. I love this. Snacks and I had a nice email conversation about this today. They play Thome every 3rd game or so against righties (sitting Delmon and putting Kubes in left) and use him as a big bat late off the bench for anyone of their constant myriad of light-hitting infielders and it works very well, depending on price, which I haven't seen yet.
3:00 - a bunch of steals and some points happened while I typed that. Gophers now lead 31-23.
2:55 - one year, $1.5 million with another $750k in possible incentives? Freakin' steal. I love this. Please don't be old and suck.
1:00 - Carter misses another tip inside. He's cursed.
0:45 - I see why Northwestern ranks so awful in getting their shots blocked on offense. They just don't care who is around. Any of those crazy white boys is willing to just take the shot at any time no matter who might be lurking. Gotta be honest, not sure that's a winning strategy.
0:02.4 - Quote from Gardy "I don't expect him to come off the bench and be a .400 hitter. I expect him to come off the bench and be a threat," Gardenhire said. "He looks like stinkin' Babe Ruth. He swings like Babe Ruth. We've seen too many fly against us. Now let's see some fly for us." I love it. Let's let this moment be a philosophy shifter.
HALF - Gophers lead 33-25. At this point you'd probably be thinking everything is going swimmingly. Gophers lead by more than half of what they were favored by and really dominated the back half of the first half, so everybody be happy and dance and eat hot dogs. Well guess what, Gomer? We still haven't seen that queer little press, so let's not start making out with each other while the green guy watches from the corner just yet, k?
19:45 - There's the zone, and they work the ball inside and get an easy six-footer from DJ. Beautiful. Perfect, even. Why can't I believe it'll be that way every time?
18:50 - Northwestern gets three shots that possession, which is embarrassing all by itself, but somehow airballs two of them. I'm smelling rout.
17:49 - Ben Sheets got more than $8 million for one year? Yamma hamma, it's fright night. Interesting, and expensive, gamble, but say he is back to his old form and they can ship him out at the trade deadline to a contender? Could be genius. Probably not, but could be.
15:35 - Gophers handling the zone inexplicably well. A lot of ball movement, good use of Ralph in the high-post (I'd bet he already has a season-high in assists this game, and a lot of penetrating the gaps (*thatswhatshesaid*)
15:05 - Gophers go with the second-unit crap, and for some reason Carmody pulls the zone off and goes back to man. If ever a group of ballplayers was begging to be passively 1-3-1'd it's these guys. Cobbs? Williams? Carter? Bostick? One ballhandler in the group and he's an overexciteable (yet full of promise) freshman. And you want Iverson to play your high post? If he doesn't end up scoring a bucket on an attempted lob pass at some point this year I'll be a monkey's uncle.
14:42 - Shurna heating up. That's like 3 three pointers this half, and the lead is down to six.
13:41 - Bostick throws the lob to an open Williams that sails into about the 13th row. When he is pulled, immediately, from the lineup Tubby calls him right over to talk - what do you say here? Next possession and Hoffarber tries the lob to Williams and it's another misfire and another turnover. See, now this is where you need to put a stop to this shit. It's only a six-point lead, you can't be farting around like you're playing open gym against a bunch of guys in backwards hats who wear gold chains to play ball. This needs to be a timeout/chewout situation. He got Bostick out of there in a hurry, but golden boy Hoffarber is still in the game. Could Tubby be a racist? He did coach in the deep south, Oklahoma, and Kentucky. I assume those are the three racist capitals of the world. I think they got to Tubby. It certainly explains a lot about why Busch played so many minutes last year.
12:18 - Fun rant and all, but it's now a four-point game.
12:04 - two point game after a Wildcat steal. At least Tubby has the decency to call the timeout right away instead of waiting for the tv stoppage like a whole bunch of other idiots always do.
11:01 - Devoe and Johnson discuss who should guard "Juice" on the inbounds play, even pointing and making hand gestures. Then they both leave him, giving him a wide open three-pointer without him even making a cut (or, actually, so much as a step) and he, of course, knocks it down to make it a 42-41 Gopher lead. This team is going to kill me. Literally knife me to death in my sleep.
10:05 - At least Ralphie is showing some aggression tonight, continuing to slowly develop into the player I always said he'd be before I turned my back on him a few weeks ago. Bad fan? Or master motivator? Just because he's ignored my facebook friend request doesn't mean he doesn't read this blog every single day.
9:20 - Devoe throws it away against the 1-3-1 (7th team turnover of the half) and the Wildcats get the ball back down just two. I'm afraid to watch.
8:29 - Alternating shitty possessions before Ralph gets open for a monster dunk. He'll probably end up breaking a backboard at some point. If Tiny Gallon can do it, why not Ralph?
7:57 - Carter misses a layup on the break. I'm not even kidding. That guy needs to go back to 6th grade gym class with Mr. Jones where he made you shoot layups over and over again, and then when he finally let you play three-on-three and you had to guard some massive girl who had six inches and sixty pounds on you would call you for a foul if you so much as hand-checked even a little. And I swear it was just a handcheck, no hanky panky. Although, now that I think about it, that might have been a golden opportunity. God I was a dumb twelve-year old.
5:57 - Cobbs back in and Northwestern is once again in a man defense. It's like they're scared of him. Pretty sure the only entity that needs to fear Cobbs is the backboard. Oh, and Juice hits a three right over him when he closes out weakly and lazily, and we're tied at 48. They lose this I'm not going to a game the rest of the year, and it's time get after Tubby. No joke.
5:08 - Shurna to the line after a DJ turnover. My good buddy and occassional hockey guy Snake has a theory that Damian is on the take, and sometimes it seems to make sense. For all the little things he does really well, he also does a whole lot of little things wrong. Watch him carefully sometime, it's true. Shurna makes 1.
4:45 - Hoff for three, Gophers by two. I'm starting to think if Hoff was standing in Dinkytown taking volunteers to give him handies I'd be second in line (behind the Dawger.)
4:09 - Hoff for three again. That's nine straight Gopher points for him. I'm pretty sure I'd be first, and with a variety of lotions.
3:15 - Lest you thought this was over, Nash hits a three, then a steal on a shitty Devoe pass leads to a Nash layup and we're back to a two point Gopher lead. At least my Northwestern +10.5 looks good. Unlike that shot Devoe just chucked up there that missed everything but the backboard. Good lord does he clench at the end of close games. I hope Corey doesn't have that same trait, or he's going to go to the podium to announce his decision and instead of saying "UCONN" he's going to blurt "UMASS." It's funny cause UMASS sucks.
2:30 - Hoff for three on a great great great pass/decision by Westbrook on a play where I would have expected him to force his own shot. Very impressed by that play.
2:20 - Terrible defense by Devoe, completely losing Shurna, but that was at least nullified by a nice DJ lay-in on yet another great pass by Ralph. I knew this was going to the wire. 61-56 Gophers. And we've seen our first "HOFFARBER FACTOR" graphic ever. Congrats?
1:21 - According to "Chad Ford", Greg Monroe isn't a lottery pick this year. That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. There are four good picks this year: Monroe, Wall, Favors, and Turner. Who wants to bet the Wolves end up at three or four, but take somebody like Ed Davis? I'd bet anything. Except my vodka.
1:21 - I just looked further (dont' worry, game is paused) and Ford has Monroe as the #23 prospect behind guys like UNC's John Henson, who looks like a 6-10 Tayshaun Prince, if Prince was scared of contact, and Willie Warren, who is too small to play the 2 and too shitty to play the point. This is baffling to me. I'm baffled. I suppose I'm better off watching the end of the game instead. But I'm terrified. I almost want to just skip to the end. I won't. I can't. I'm going to watch the whole thing because I'm strong. I'm like the Sojourner Truth of gopher bloggers.
0:55 - Joseph misses a wide open three with the Gophers up three. You cannot miss that shot when your #1 skill is three-point shooting. You cannot.
15.6 - Northwestern gets a terrible shot and misses, rebound out of bounds to the Gophers, but not before Juice goes right by Joseph. Thanks to terrible decision making he kicks it out instead of scoring somehow. Looked a lot like somebody playing a video game and hittng the wrong button. Whatever, we'll take it.
10.6 - Devoe misses the front-end, but Hoff snags the O-board and gets fouled. Remember what I said above? Double it. Blake makes both and we're looking at the rare team win and wager win. Nice.
3.5 - Juice hits a forty-footer and we're looking at a two point game. Not even the Gophers can blow this, right? RIGHT?
3.5 - I want you to know that Cartier Martin scored 20 tonight for Golden State. Apparently anybody can put up huge numbers in that offense. Suck it, Curry (and, by extension, Dawger).
3.0 - Westbrook free throw good. Carmody timeout. Hoffarber montage. Westy free throw. Ballgame.
It wasn't exactly impressive, but at this point I'm not really looking for style points. Just win the game. And they did. I'd write more but I'm tired. This team is exhausting.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Oh Snap, here come the Wildcats!
After the world's worst Minnesota sporting weekend I almost forgot that we now get to welcome Northwestern and their boring ass offense and amorphous blob of an unsolvable zone to the Barn. Since no matter how hard I try to ignore this fact it won't go away, we might as well hit up a preview of sorts, eh?
1. If Kevin Coble's hurt, why is Northwestern better this year than last year? Mainly because Coble v. 2.0 is on the scene in the form of John Shurna. He's gangly and awkward, yet fundamentally sound and effective all at the same time. He was a three-star dork coming out of high school and wasn't heavily recruited and had a pretty non-descript freshman year but has exploded this season, more than doubling his scoring average (from 7 to 17), rebounding average (3 to 7), and assists (1 to 2.5). Probably roid related. Solid player (and also a member of my fantasy team, the Rick Rickert All-Stars).
Shurna isn't the only Wildcat to make a major leap this year. Point guard Michael Thompson, who has inexplicably started going by the moniker "Juice", has increased his scoring by about 50% while increasing his assists and decreasing his turnovers and has already dropped 20+ against three good teams (Purdue, Notre Dame, NC State). Jeremy Nash, the reptillian-like head to the aforementioned amorphous blob, is suddenly scoring almost ten points a game as a senior after averaging less than 3.5 througout his career and is stealing nearly two balls a game. He's a major pest. Add in major contributions from freshman Drew Crawford and it's easy to see why not only are they an NCAA contender this year, but could be real threat next year as well.
2. Can you tell me more about this Crawford fella? Sure. Crawford, like most Nor'westerners, was a three-star recruit, but unlike most of them he was heavily recruited with offers from Wake Forest and Oklahoma State but chose to sign with the Wildcats due to his experience with one of the team's assistant coaches who coached his 7th grade AAU team and academic reasons (he had a 4.2 GPA in high school and scored 31 on his ACTs). He's already made an impact at third on the team in scoring, rebounding, and three-pointers made and is a very versatile player at 6-5. He can go off huge, with games of 35, 25, and 22 already this year, but can also be shut down (6 games of under 5 points). Containing Crawford is going to be huge tomorrow. Although Shurna and Thompson are the big guns, Crawford might be the most dangerous. Like a sub-machine gun.
3. So who are the keys for the Gophers? It seems pretty obvious if you ask me, and that's Devoe Joseph and Blake Hoffarber. Joseph is the new point guard, and will be the main man responsible for dealing with that zone. I like this, because a good way to beat a zone is to penetrate the gaps, and although Nolen could penetrate, he sure couldn't finish - just like you. Devoe will have to balance dribble-penetration and smart passes with getting his own shot - not easy against the Wildcat zone, but I have faith.
As far as the Hoff goes, I am sure you remember how Dawger's boyfriend Jamal Abu-Shamala lit up Northwestern every time they played. There are two reasons for that: it's a zone and it's not an athletic team. Well, they still play zone, they still aren't overly athletic (even with Crawford now), and Hoffarber is ten times the player Shamala was (and that might be low). He should be able to get his shots early and often, and if he is still red hot could knock this game out in a hurry.
4. If Minnesota manages to pull this out, is this going to end up being a win over an NCAA Tournament team? Well, probably not, but there's a shot. If Northwestern loses to the Gophers, that drops them to 3-5 in conference play and 14-6 overall. Currently sitting at 56th in RPI (9 spots ahead of the Gophers) and 74th in Strenght of Schedule, they'd certainly have their work cut out for them. They do have a signature win over Purdue and a whole host of medium-good wins (NC State, Iowa State, Stanford, Notre Dame), so I'd bet 9-9 in the conference would have a shot to get them in. They still play Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State all twice so winning all of those gets them to 9-9. It's not likely, but it's possible. FYI that would mean the Gophers have a whole three wins over tournament teams. Joy.
5. In honor of the nerds, can you break this down numbers-wise? Northwestern ranks 62nd in the country in offensive efficiency, 94th in defensive efficiency, and 288th in tempo. The Gophers rank 63rd offensively, 12th defensively, and 68th in tempo. The Wildcats biggest strengths are taking care of the basketball (24th in not turning it over), defending the three (opponents shoot just 28% against - 19th in the country), and shooting the basketball (84th in effective field goal %). Minnesota's weaknesses are getting offensive rebounds (173rd), allowing offensive rebounds (176th), and defending the three pointer (117th). The Gophers' strengths are causing turnovers (8th), defending the two-point shot (15th - just 41.8%), and causing steals (7th) and blocks (7th). Northwestern's weakness are getting offensive rebounds (256th), getting their shots blocked (245th), and defending the two-point shot (205th - allowing 48.6%).
What's all that mean? The teams matchup fairly well, and this could be a tight one. Will Blake's hot shooting overcome a Wildcat defense that defends the three-pointer well? Can Devoe (and Westbrook) get inside the zone and create opportunities? Will the Gophers interior defense stifle the Cats inside players? I don't know, but I know that things like "desperation" and "seriously need to win this one" actually go a long way in college basketball. Plus, they're a bunch of nerds.
Gophers 70, Northwestern 64.
1. If Kevin Coble's hurt, why is Northwestern better this year than last year? Mainly because Coble v. 2.0 is on the scene in the form of John Shurna. He's gangly and awkward, yet fundamentally sound and effective all at the same time. He was a three-star dork coming out of high school and wasn't heavily recruited and had a pretty non-descript freshman year but has exploded this season, more than doubling his scoring average (from 7 to 17), rebounding average (3 to 7), and assists (1 to 2.5). Probably roid related. Solid player (and also a member of my fantasy team, the Rick Rickert All-Stars).
Shurna isn't the only Wildcat to make a major leap this year. Point guard Michael Thompson, who has inexplicably started going by the moniker "Juice", has increased his scoring by about 50% while increasing his assists and decreasing his turnovers and has already dropped 20+ against three good teams (Purdue, Notre Dame, NC State). Jeremy Nash, the reptillian-like head to the aforementioned amorphous blob, is suddenly scoring almost ten points a game as a senior after averaging less than 3.5 througout his career and is stealing nearly two balls a game. He's a major pest. Add in major contributions from freshman Drew Crawford and it's easy to see why not only are they an NCAA contender this year, but could be real threat next year as well.
2. Can you tell me more about this Crawford fella? Sure. Crawford, like most Nor'westerners, was a three-star recruit, but unlike most of them he was heavily recruited with offers from Wake Forest and Oklahoma State but chose to sign with the Wildcats due to his experience with one of the team's assistant coaches who coached his 7th grade AAU team and academic reasons (he had a 4.2 GPA in high school and scored 31 on his ACTs). He's already made an impact at third on the team in scoring, rebounding, and three-pointers made and is a very versatile player at 6-5. He can go off huge, with games of 35, 25, and 22 already this year, but can also be shut down (6 games of under 5 points). Containing Crawford is going to be huge tomorrow. Although Shurna and Thompson are the big guns, Crawford might be the most dangerous. Like a sub-machine gun.
3. So who are the keys for the Gophers? It seems pretty obvious if you ask me, and that's Devoe Joseph and Blake Hoffarber. Joseph is the new point guard, and will be the main man responsible for dealing with that zone. I like this, because a good way to beat a zone is to penetrate the gaps, and although Nolen could penetrate, he sure couldn't finish - just like you. Devoe will have to balance dribble-penetration and smart passes with getting his own shot - not easy against the Wildcat zone, but I have faith.
As far as the Hoff goes, I am sure you remember how Dawger's boyfriend Jamal Abu-Shamala lit up Northwestern every time they played. There are two reasons for that: it's a zone and it's not an athletic team. Well, they still play zone, they still aren't overly athletic (even with Crawford now), and Hoffarber is ten times the player Shamala was (and that might be low). He should be able to get his shots early and often, and if he is still red hot could knock this game out in a hurry.
4. If Minnesota manages to pull this out, is this going to end up being a win over an NCAA Tournament team? Well, probably not, but there's a shot. If Northwestern loses to the Gophers, that drops them to 3-5 in conference play and 14-6 overall. Currently sitting at 56th in RPI (9 spots ahead of the Gophers) and 74th in Strenght of Schedule, they'd certainly have their work cut out for them. They do have a signature win over Purdue and a whole host of medium-good wins (NC State, Iowa State, Stanford, Notre Dame), so I'd bet 9-9 in the conference would have a shot to get them in. They still play Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State all twice so winning all of those gets them to 9-9. It's not likely, but it's possible. FYI that would mean the Gophers have a whole three wins over tournament teams. Joy.
5. In honor of the nerds, can you break this down numbers-wise? Northwestern ranks 62nd in the country in offensive efficiency, 94th in defensive efficiency, and 288th in tempo. The Gophers rank 63rd offensively, 12th defensively, and 68th in tempo. The Wildcats biggest strengths are taking care of the basketball (24th in not turning it over), defending the three (opponents shoot just 28% against - 19th in the country), and shooting the basketball (84th in effective field goal %). Minnesota's weaknesses are getting offensive rebounds (173rd), allowing offensive rebounds (176th), and defending the three pointer (117th). The Gophers' strengths are causing turnovers (8th), defending the two-point shot (15th - just 41.8%), and causing steals (7th) and blocks (7th). Northwestern's weakness are getting offensive rebounds (256th), getting their shots blocked (245th), and defending the two-point shot (205th - allowing 48.6%).
What's all that mean? The teams matchup fairly well, and this could be a tight one. Will Blake's hot shooting overcome a Wildcat defense that defends the three-pointer well? Can Devoe (and Westbrook) get inside the zone and create opportunities? Will the Gophers interior defense stifle the Cats inside players? I don't know, but I know that things like "desperation" and "seriously need to win this one" actually go a long way in college basketball. Plus, they're a bunch of nerds.
Gophers 70, Northwestern 64.
Week in Review: 1/25/2010
TAILS NEVER FAILS! What the hell, who calls heads? I thought everybody knew this.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. UCONN. Last week UCONN lost to Michigan, their third straight, and everybody was like lol wut? This week the Huskies have finally started turning it around starting with a convincing win over St. Johns and culminating in a huge win on Saturday, and upset of #1 Texas in Storrs - all with their head coach gone for medical reasons. The St. Johns game was billed as a possible upset due to Calhoun's leaving and the uppitiness of St. J's, but UCONN had no trouble, winning 75-59 behind big days from Kemba Walker (17 pts on 7-12 shooting), Stan Robinson (18 on 7-9), and Jerome Dyson (21 on 8-14). That same trio did it again against Texas, combining for 68 of the team's 88 points in the upset. I think this is a pretty dangerous team that's flying under the radar right now. That three game losing streak wasn't pretty, but this is the same team that hung right with Kentucky on a neutral court and at Duke and Georgetown this year. Pay attention.
2. NC State. The results of Saturday's game at Maryland are irrelevant, the Wednesday win over Duke is huge for this program and the fans, who I can only assume were starting to question Sid Lowe in a very large way. With Duke and UNC reaching dynasty statuses and Wake kind of coming and going but always being relevant, NC State was suddenly the black sheep of the Raleigh-Durham triangle. The Wolfpack haven't been to the NCAA tournament since 2006, have only reached the sweet 16 once in the last twenty years, were 2-9 in the last two years against fellow Raleigh-Durham teams, and haven't had a player you have heard of since Julius Hodge.
Luckily for the once proud program, it appears that this win wasn't just a fluke, and they are finally heading back in the right direction with talented freshmen PF Richard Howell (double/double vs. Clemson) and SF Scott Wood (31pts vs. Florida State) and one of the best players you've never heard of in PF Tracy Smith who is averaging 17 pts and 9 rebounds per game this year and should be back next year since he's just a junior. Add in a great recruiting class Lowe has secured for next season, I predict the Wolfpack to be back in the NCAA Tournament next season.
3. Purdue. A three-game losing streak and a .500 conference record made this a very big week for the Boilers, and they responded. The 69-59 weekend win over Michigan in West Lafayette wasn't that big a deal, especially since Beilein had suspended Manny Harris for the game due to "an act of unsportsmanlike conduct" at practice this week (which I can only assume involved bitch slapping Zack Novak). The real big win came on Tuesday, with Purdue going into Illinois and coming out with a 84-78 key road win over the Illini. Lose that game, and they're suddenly 3-4, lost 4 in a row, and everything is shaky. Instead, everything is back on the right track for JaJuan and friends. That was a must win against Illinois, and they went out and took care of business.
4. Syracuse. They keep winning, this week over Marquette at home and at Notre Dame, and I was quite wrong about Wesley Johnson who is actually an absolute beast (22 and 8, 22 and 15 this week). Must be nice to root for a team that wins.
5. UAB. Another team that just keeps winning, and they're doing it in dramatic fashion. Earlier this year they beat Middle Tennessee State on a layup with 12 seconds left, Arkansas on a dunk with one second left, and SMU by one after coming back from being down 24 in the second half, but this week may have been the most dramatic yet. The Blazers beat Southern Miss and Marshall both by one point, and both on Aaron Johnson buckets with 7 seconds or less remaining. The Marshall win was huge, coming on the road against a fellow C-USA title contender and unbeaten Herd, leaving UAB tied atop the standings with just Tulsa. Non-conference wins over Cincy and Butler will hold up, and the team's only two losses were road games, so they are set up in decent shape for an at-large. Their next three games are against fellow contenders Tulsa, UTEP, and at Memphis and if they can win 2 of the 3 things look very good.
WHO SUCKED
1. Vikings. Forget about the 4th and 1 call (probably correct), the pass interference call (brutal), or the Meachem catch call (beyond brutal), the Vikings pissed this game away in about 20 different ways. Take your pick between the fumble, the fumble, the fumble, the 20 men in the huddle call, or the beyond stupid Favre interception at the end of the game. Seriously, if he just tucks the ball and runs he probably has 8-10 yards of room (and this is probably intentional and the way the play was designed) and Longwell gets a chance to win it from 48 or so (although he'd probably just miss). That gunslinger mentality that Favre kept the lid on all season finally came back to bit the team in the ass, and that's an awfully big bite. Like a dusky shark.
2. Gopher basketball. Thoughts located here. I don't have the energy to write about this again after watching that Vikings game.
3. Marquette. The Golden Eagles were pretty much everyone's poster child for the potential NCAA tournament team who had bad luck and whose record didn't reflect how good they really were this year. They were 11-6, but their losses were mostly close and mostly to good teams. A loss by four to NC State after leading by 11 at the half. A loss by 1 to Florida State on a Soloman Alabi jumper with twelve seconds left. An insane loss by one at West Virginia on a ridiculous buzzer beater by Da'Sean Butler and two losses to Villanova, both by just two points. Well, forget all that. Marquette lost to DePaul Wednesday night in what was DePaul's first Big East victory in their last 25 tries. That's not a misprint. It was the Blue Demons first conference win since January 3rd, 2008 - Johan Santana was still Minnesota Twins' property. Safe to say that Marquette isn't a good team that had some bad luck anymore. They may play some good teams tough, but not being able to close against a good team and losing to a crap team isn't exactly a positive sign.
4. Washington. Another week, another Pac 10 team spiraling out of control, bringing the conference down with it. This time it was the Huskies, at one time the favorite to win the league, who had an absolutely disastrous road trip to Los Angeles. On Thursday they dropped a game to UCLA on a last second half-court heave, and then got absolutely destroyed on Saturday by USC - losing 87-61. Seriously, the Pac-10 is going to get one bid this year outside of the conference tournament winner, and if Cal ends up winning that then there is a very real chance they only get a single bid. Barring any prolonged winning streaks, at this point the only teams with a chance are Cal, Washington, USC, Washington State, and Arizona State. Cal is pretty much already in, but there are major flaws with everybody else - especially USC, since they have a self-imposed postseason ban right now. Washington has dropped to 3-5 in the conference and lacks any kind of signature non-conference win. Washington State is just 4-4 in the Pac, but again, has nothing resembling big win, and Arizona State - second in the conference at 4-3 - just got destroyed by Arizona at home. So, yeah, this conference is garbage.
5. Wichita State. I wrote about the Shockers last week and how they were angling for an at-large but needed to avoid losing the games they should win and needed to net a big one somewhere. They got their big one, knocking off Conference Stud Northern Iowa, and were looking very good and I was all ready to write them up as being awesome this week. Instead they farted it all away. I happen to know our very own Rockies Guy is a big Drake guy as well, so he should be proud of his boys for beating the piss out of the Shockers (78-64) and single-handedly putting an end to their at-large aspirations (as they did to Illinois State the weekend prior). Alls well, though, because it's fairly clear to me at this point that Wichita State has a destiny - a destiny to come to Williams Arena this year. Mark it down - March 16, 8:00pm, Williams Arena - Gophers vs. Shockers. CATCH THE FEVER!
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