Six Very Important Things this Morning 7.30.2010

1.   I'm unsure about this.  Big move down Twins way, moving Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, a deal that I now Super Twins Blogger Aaron Gleeman hates already, thanks to the miracle of twitter.  I don't hate it, but I also don't love it.  Kind of like the show Big Bang Theory.  I'm not a fan of trading Ramos in a trade that isn't really the kind that will put you over the top, but Capps is better than Rauch, even if it's not a huge upgrade, he was absolutely lights out from 2006-2008, and he has significant closing experience.  Maybe it's the last little bit of the nerd in me holding on to something old school but I believe there is value in having closing experience.  The downside, of course, is that they traded their top prospect (top 3 at worst) for a rental, because Capps is a free agent after this year, and it makes me a bit queasy to trade a top young guy for a reliever.  I need more time to really digest this, but I think I kind of like it but don't love it.  Of course, I'm also a huge lover of trades because they're fun, so that bumps it up a notch.

2.  A few other trades went down yesterday.  The most high profile was Roy Oswalt to the Phillies for J.A. Happ and a couple of mediocre prospects, a steal for the Phillies since the Astros are paying $11 million of his salary next year and they didn't have to guarantee his 2012 option.  This now gives Philly a 3-man playoff rotation of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Oswalt, and I think we have a Miami Heat situation brewing in the NL.  Other trades include the shell of Miguel Tejada to the Padres for a middling minor leaguer, Jorge Cantu to the Rangers for a couple of promising pitchers even though Texas is broke, and an odd swap of minor leaguers between the Astros and Blue Jays involving one of the prospects the Astros had received just hours earlier in the Oswalt trade and a guy the Jays got in the Halladay trade last year.  So basically the market for starters is crap, but the Twins overpaid for Capps.  Awesome.

3.  Sticking with baseball, we need a moment of silence.   Stephen Strasburg is dead.  Well shut down and on the DL, retroactive to his last start so he'll be back in about 10 days.  But still.  Apparently he's basically just got a sore shoulder with a little inflammation and it's not really a big deal, but because the Nats are going nowhere and Strasburg is basically Sidd Finch with a golden arm, there's no reason to put him at even a minuscule risk of further injury.  Now if only they could find a team to give up a top prospect at a tough position to fill, like catcher, for a pretty decent but overvalued reliever.  Oh, and you can also read how Jim Bunning is batshit insane if you follow that link.

4.   R. A. Dickey is really starting to piss me off.  He continues to somehow pitch well, so well in fact that the article title after his start tonight was "Dickey Dominates."  After taking a 3-hitter into the ninth before running into some trouble and getting yanked, Dickey is now 7-4, but more importantly is sporting a 2.32 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP; ace-like numbers.  That ERA is less than half his career number, his WHIP is almost a half base-runner per inning better this year, and for a guy who has only been a part-time starter in his career he's been able to go at least 6 innings in 12 of his 14 starts this year.  And, in case you're wondering, his BABIP is right where it should be, so there's no reason to expect him to suddenly start to suck.  Seriously, this is so far beyond a career-year that we need a new word for it.  This is his Brady Anderson year.

5.  The Jeremy Tyler saga continues.  You might remember Tyler as one of the top incoming recruits for the class of 2010, who had signed on with Louisville and Rick Pitino.  Then he decided the best move for him would be to leave high school after his junior year and play professionally in Israel until he became eligible for the NBA.  He then quit after just 10 games (averaging 2.1 points and 1.9 rebounds per game in 7.6 minutes) after a series of issues including leaving a game at half time in protest that he wasn't getting enough minutes.  He's now hooked up with a team in a Japanese League, and will presumably play over there next year unless he quits again.  He will be eligible for the NBA Draft next season, so we'll find out if it was worth it.  Pretty much a toss up right now between living in a land where you don't know the culture or the language, not getting along with teammates, and high levels of frustration versus being a star and banging a different coed every night.  Tough call. 

6.  Northwestern's NCAA cherry takes a hit.  This happened a few days ago but I haven't commented on it and I think it's big enough that I should make sure to mention, but Kevin Coble has decided to hang 'em up and has left the Wildcat basketball team.  It's unfortunate for Northwestern, because between him and John Shurna they would have had two big weapons who could score from inside or outside, and with Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford back and highly rated freshman Jershon Cobb joining the team, they were looking very good for their first ever NCAA bid.  They will still be good enough to make a run, but it will be tough without Coble, who led the team in scoring and rebounding all three years of his career, but was sidelined by a foot injury last year, and left the team to focus on his academics and get his degree.  Just goes to show you can't trust a nerd.


I'm sure I'll have more thoughts on the Capps trade.  Stay tuned.

Oh Snap, here come the Wildcats!

After the world's worst Minnesota sporting weekend I almost forgot that we now get to welcome Northwestern and their boring ass offense and amorphous blob of an unsolvable zone to the Barn.  Since no matter how hard I try to ignore this fact it won't go away, we might as well hit up a preview of sorts, eh?

1.  If Kevin Coble's hurt, why is Northwestern better this year than last year?  Mainly because Coble v. 2.0 is on the scene in the form of John Shurna.  He's gangly and awkward, yet fundamentally sound and effective all at the same time.  He was a three-star dork coming out of high school and wasn't heavily recruited and had a pretty non-descript freshman year but has exploded this season, more than doubling his scoring average (from 7 to 17), rebounding average (3 to 7), and assists (1 to 2.5).  Probably roid related.  Solid player (and also a member of my fantasy team, the Rick Rickert All-Stars).

Shurna isn't the only Wildcat to make a major leap this year.  Point guard Michael Thompson, who has inexplicably started going by the moniker "Juice", has increased his scoring by about 50% while increasing his assists and decreasing his turnovers and has already dropped 20+ against three good teams (Purdue, Notre Dame, NC State).  Jeremy Nash, the reptillian-like head to the aforementioned amorphous blob, is suddenly scoring almost ten points a game as a senior after averaging less than 3.5 througout his career and is stealing nearly two balls a game.  He's a major pest.  Add in major contributions from freshman Drew Crawford and it's easy to see why not only are they an NCAA contender this year, but could be real threat next year as well.

2.  Can you tell me more about this Crawford fella?  Sure.  Crawford, like most Nor'westerners, was a three-star recruit, but unlike most of them he was heavily recruited with offers from Wake Forest and Oklahoma State but chose to sign with the Wildcats due to his experience with one of the team's assistant coaches who coached his 7th grade AAU team and academic reasons (he had a 4.2 GPA in high school and scored 31 on his ACTs).  He's already made an impact at third on the team in scoring, rebounding, and three-pointers made and is a very versatile player at 6-5.  He can go off huge, with games of 35, 25, and 22 already this year, but can also be shut down (6 games of under 5 points).  Containing Crawford is going to be huge tomorrow.  Although Shurna and Thompson are the big guns, Crawford might be the most dangerous.  Like a sub-machine gun. 

3.  So who are the keys for the Gophers?  It seems pretty obvious if you ask me, and that's Devoe Joseph and Blake Hoffarber.  Joseph is the new point guard, and will be the main man responsible for dealing with that zone.  I like this, because a good way to beat a zone is to penetrate the gaps, and although Nolen could penetrate, he sure couldn't finish - just like you.  Devoe will have to balance dribble-penetration and smart passes with getting his own shot - not easy against the Wildcat zone, but I have faith.

As far as the Hoff goes, I am sure you remember how Dawger's boyfriend Jamal Abu-Shamala lit up Northwestern every time they played.  There are two reasons for that:  it's a zone and it's not an athletic team.  Well, they still play zone, they still aren't overly athletic (even with Crawford now), and Hoffarber is ten times the player Shamala was (and that might be low).  He should be able to get his shots early and often, and if he is still red hot could knock this game out in a hurry.

4.  If Minnesota manages to pull this out, is this going to end up being a win over an NCAA Tournament team?  Well, probably not, but there's a shot.  If Northwestern loses to the Gophers, that drops them to 3-5 in conference play and 14-6 overall.  Currently sitting at 56th in RPI (9 spots ahead of the Gophers) and 74th in Strenght of Schedule, they'd certainly have their work cut out for them.  They do have a signature win over Purdue and a whole host of medium-good wins (NC State, Iowa State, Stanford, Notre Dame), so I'd bet 9-9 in the conference would have a shot to get them in.  They still play Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State all twice so winning all of those gets them to 9-9.  It's not likely, but it's possible.  FYI that would mean the Gophers have a whole three wins over tournament teams.  Joy.

5.  In honor of the nerds, can you break this down numbers-wise?  Northwestern ranks 62nd in the country in offensive efficiency, 94th in defensive efficiency, and 288th in tempo.  The Gophers rank 63rd offensively, 12th defensively, and 68th in tempo.  The Wildcats biggest strengths are taking care of the basketball (24th in not turning it over), defending the three (opponents shoot just 28% against - 19th in the country), and shooting the basketball (84th in effective field goal %).  Minnesota's weaknesses are getting offensive rebounds (173rd), allowing offensive rebounds (176th), and defending the three pointer (117th).  The Gophers' strengths are causing turnovers (8th), defending the two-point shot (15th - just 41.8%), and causing steals (7th) and blocks (7th).  Northwestern's weakness are getting offensive rebounds (256th), getting their shots blocked (245th), and defending the two-point shot (205th - allowing 48.6%).

What's all that mean?  The teams matchup fairly well, and this could be a tight one.  Will Blake's hot shooting overcome a Wildcat defense that defends the three-pointer well?  Can Devoe (and Westbrook) get inside the zone and create opportunities?  Will the Gophers interior defense stifle the Cats inside players?  I don't know, but I know that things like "desperation" and "seriously need to win this one" actually go a long way in college basketball.  Plus, they're a bunch of nerds.

Gophers 70, Northwestern 64.

Gophers vs. Cats

Tonight, in a huge rivalry game, the Gophers take on Northwestern in what is sure to be the game of the year.

Ok, I tried. I can't really get hyped up for this game. Hopefully the Gophers can, because even though Northwestern is 0-8 in the Big Ten, they have had two wins since Big Ten play began over fearsome Chicago State and Texas - Pan Am.

Ok, I'm not taking this seriously, and I really should. Northwestern very well could get their first Big Ten victory tonight, particularly if the Gophers come out as flat as they did against Wisconsin. I am not taking this game lightly, as I can envision the following:

- Craig Moore gets hot from three, and puts down 6-7 of them. He has hit five or more in a game five times this season, and isn't afraid to shoot them as he's attempted 10 or more five times as well. Not the same five times. He's hitting 43% this year, and it's absolutely critical not to let him get off.

- Michael Thompson handles the pressure defense the way Trevon Hughes did, not the way Eric Gordon did, and gets himself to the basket at will. Is he capable of this? He had 16 with 5 assists and 1 turnover against Wisconsin, a better defensive team than the Gophers.

- Kevin Coble uses his weird shaped body to create matchup problems, too quick for Spencer, too good with his back to the basket for Coleman.

- The Gophers come out flat and start slow, get confused by Northwestern's zone and slow tempo (309th in pace), revert to last year and let this one get away.

Do I think any of that will happen? Maybe one thing, but not all of them. This should be a Gopher win. Not only is Northwestern 0-8, but their closest loss thus far was by 9.

They don't turn it over (18th best), they will turn you over (26th), and they love to shoot the three (44% of FGAs are threes - 21st in NCAA). However, they also will allow you to score - 331st in defensive effective FG%, 298th against the three and 318th against the two, and 326th in preventing offensive rebounds. And despite loving the three, they don't shoot it that well - 122nd.

The last time the Gophers faced a team this bad on the defensive end, they came out attacking and aggressive and beat the crap out of Michigan. Let's hope for a repeat of that performance, and not of the Wisconsin game.

Minnesota 68, Northwestern 58.

Also that picture up top is the Northwestern girls soccer team according to the Internet, and the Internet and I are good friends so I know it would never lie to me.

St. Joe's PK @ Duquesne (L)
UCONN +3 @ Syracuse (W)
Minnesota -6.5 @ Northwestern (W)
Notre Dame PK @ Seton Hall (W)
Kentucky -3.5 @ Auburn (L)
UNLV +2.5 @ Utah (L)
Wisconsin -7.5 @ Iowa (L)
Baylor -8 vs. Texas Tech (L)
Duke +4 @ North Carolina (W)
Bradley -6.5 vs. Missouri State (W)
Texas +3 @ Oklahoma (W)
Air Force +10 @ San Diego State

Yesterday: 4-5
Season: 291-271