Showing posts with label Talor Battle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Talor Battle. Show all posts

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Live Blog: Minnesota Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

You know what's great?  Technology.  You know why?  Because a working dad like me can come home from work, eat dinner with his family (homemade pizza), play with the kids, put the kids to bed, watch the best show on TV (Parks & Rec), spend quality time with his wife (wink wink) and still watch a game that started at 6pm thanks to the miracle of DVR.  And I already have a buzz on.  Sweet.

Keep in mind throughout this game that I made a semi-large wager on Talor Battle over 26.5 points+rebounds+assists, so I'll be rooting for him to do well at the same time I'm dying for a Gopher win.  Here's what I know:  Bogart told me to look for Mbakwe at 6:11 left in the first half, and Dawger called me at 8:24, which would be not long after the game ends.  I've been trying to figure out why he'd call me, but I'm guessing at this point we're going down to the wire.  Let's see.

19:24 - Iverson fouled on the games first possession, makes one.  Sounds about right.  It's a bit disconcerting that with the big lineup in the ball didn't get anywhere near the point until there were 4 seconds left on the shot clock, but whatever.

18:36 - Gophers in a zone and are really shading Battle.  Whichever area Battle is the defender is almost playing man on Battle, even without the ball.  Interesting strategy which leads to Battle getting nothing but backboard on a pro range three.  What a stupid bet.

17:27 - Jesus christ, Ralph.  Although I don't know if that's really his fault, not really sure why Mbakwe thought it would be a good idea to outlet to Sampson.  But sheesh, that was like watching a baby deer try to stand up for the first time.

16:35 - Rodney Williams with the travel trying to drive, moving his feet before he gets the ball on the ground.  How many times has that happened this year?  Twice per game or so, no?

16:10 - Battle for three.  5-3 PSU.  Sampson with a deep two-pointer to tie it up.  That guy sure loves his jumpshot.

14:26 - Battle with another three to make it 11-7 Penn State.  Hair trigger style too, he looks incredibly dialed in.  Obviously that's a negative.  They have him running baseline against the Gopher 2-3, and they're going to need the wings to pay more attention, because he completely ran Iverson into a pick on that one.

13:38 - David Jackson misses another three.  This guy should play for Michigan.  Complete and total chucker, never saw a shot he didn't want to take, and at 6-7 basically refuses to go anywhere near the paint.  I should also mention he's a starter on my fantasy team.  Yes, my team sucks.

12:27 - Why do they keep calling Jackson "DJ Jackson?"  Is that what he actually goes by?  Because all the literature on Penn State calls him David.  Not that I'd ever question Stephen Bardo, the worst starter on that awesome '89 Illinois team:  Bardo, Kendall Gill, Nick Anderson, Kenny Battle, Lowell Hamilton.  That was a hell of  a squad.

12:04 - Armelin loves shooting.  And that's good, because at least somebody is always looking to score.  He doesn't really even seem to force it very often, it's just whenever it's open he's going to take it.  He could end up being a pretty big-time scorer some day.

9:12 -  Another three by Battle, 14-11 Penn State.  Assisted by Tim Frazier.  Those two give me nightmares.  Battle can't graduate fast enough for me.  Or run out of eligibility.  Whichever.

8:16 -  A three by some guy and penn state has five threes making up 15 of their 17 points.  And it could easily be more but "D.J." Jackson can't shoot for shit.  God damn the Gophers are awful at defending the three-pointer.

7:55 - Hey I have a book recommendation for the five of you who read this blog who actually read books:  Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim.  It's basically like Freakonomics, but with sports topics.  So where Freakonomics (also a great book) dug into the economics of drug-dealing and the socioeconomic patterns of naming your children, Scorecasting looks at things like "Does defense really win championships?" (yes, but so does offense), "Does calling a timeout to ice a player work?" (no), and "Why does home court advantage exist?" (it's the referees, for real.)  Just really great stuff, clearly researched by nerds but presented in a way that normal people will enjoy reading.  Read it, if for no other reason that the next time you want to throw something at your tv when your team is on the road and you're convinced they're getting screwed, you'll at least have some facts that support you.

7:42 - Hoff for three, 19-16 Penn State.  Let's do more of that, please.  and Battle answers with a shot that doesn't even make any sense that he made it.  I hate to say I told you so, but he's looking like he's beyond dialed.

6:42 - It's almost 6:11.  I'm giddy with anticipation.

6:11 -  Yep, that'll do it.  Bardo calls Mbakwe a "grown man" which is still the stupidest compliment in history.  Well, other than "dapper."

4:40 - Whoa.  Battle missed.  That's whack.  PSU grabs the o-board of course.  Luckily some guy who isn't Battle clangs the open three-pointer.  Hoff with his third three and it's 26-24 Penn State.  I don't understand how that guy gets open threes against anybody.  If I was a coach every time my team let Hoff have an open three-ball they'd be running laps.  And I don't mean at practice, I mean I'd take whoever's fault it was out right then and there and make him run around the court in front of the fans and cameras and everything.  I'm tough like that.

3:50 - Ralph scores with a jump hook.  I bet you can't guess who Bardo compared him too.  Go ahead, you'll never get it right.  Oh.  Yeah.  It was his dad.  For the 53rd time this season. 

1:41 - Another high-low from Iverson to Mbakwe and teh Gophers are up 28-26.  They are killing them inside, but it should be even worse considering Penn State's only good inside players have both been on the bench for much of this half with foul issues.  Just sad.  I don't feel good at all right now.

0:28 - You know what the best movie I've seen in a long time is?  Threat Level Midnight.

0:00 - 29-28 Penn State at half.  Terrible half if you aren't Trevor Mbakwe (10 pts, 10 rebs at half).  And that's with Jeff Brooks missing basically the entire first half.  My tummy hurts.  I need a beer.

19:24 - Frazier hits a desperation three-pointer with the shot clock at 1.  Great.  Good omen. 

16:54 - Good god does Penn State love to launch the three-pointer.  Is the Big Ten just a three-pointer dominated league?  Northwestern, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all in love with it, and apparently Penn State is too.  Hold on, let me get my tape recorder out:  "Do some nerd research on if the Big Ten is a more three-point heavy league than the other ones."  There. 

16:04 - I desperately want to see Iverson shoot a three-pointer.  What would that even look like?  Probably similar to watching Ralph try to play PG on a fast break.  Also the Gophers are still losing, 34-32.  They really need to do something about that.

14:29 - Sampson hits a three, white announcer guy gushes, Bardo references his dad (#54 this year).  Seriously, can we calm down with the moistness after Ralph hits a perimeter shot, please?  Yes, it's great that a 7-footer can hit a three, but what would be even greater is if that 7-footer could spend more than 10% of his time in the paint instead of flitting about on the perimeter.  You're a big man, get your ass in the paint and post up.  If the perimeter jumper comes to you, great, but you should not be looking for it.  It's like a counselor once told me, you're not an alcoholic if you're hunting the booze, you're an alcoholic if the booze is hunting you.  Which means I need another beer.

13:32 - Here's my impression of Tim Frazier:  I'm going to drive the lane because nobody on this slow ass team can stop me but I have no intention of even looking to score but it doesn't matter because the Gophers haven't figured this out so they collapse to stop me and guess what I know exactly where my buddy Talor is and I just found him for another open three-pointer which he of course nailed.  Boom roasted.

13:06 - And it's all falling apart.  Fart.

11:53 - Talor Battle must have the patience of a saint.  If I were him and these were my teammates I'd be in prison.

10:38 - Sometimes doing a live blog isn't fun at all.  Penn State 47, Minnesota 37.  I might not type anymore.

8:25 - Five straight for the Gophers, getting it inside to Mbakwe and finding Hoff for a 3-pointer.  Why is it those are literally the only two scoring options for this broke ass team?

7:43 - huh.

6:44 - Rodney Williams for three?

5:59 - Well lookie there, we're tied at 50 on what has to be Iverson's fifth assist at least.  And then he follows it up with an idiotic out-of-position foul where he should have just given up the layup but instead tries to do something and ends up giving Penn State a free point.  Apparently there's no magic IQ juice in retinol.

5:04 - Rodney with a great take and pull up and barely hits the far side of the rim.  Love the aggressiveness, love using the athleticism to create an open jumper, hate the inability to shoot.  And there's a lay-up and the foul for Rod.  Free throw to tie.

5:04 - No.  Of course.  Christ.

4:45 - Rodney now looking extra aggressive, took the rock to the hole.  Unfortunately his handles aren't exactly The Professor level and he basically handed the ball to Frazier.  Fortunately, the refs inexplicably called him for the foul, and fortunately Rodney somehow made both free throws.  55-54 Penn State. 

4:10 - Battle airball from about 35-feet as the shot clock expires.  This I like. 

3:49 - Rodney with a great fucking pass from the top of the key to find Iverson for a lay-up.  Is this a coming out party?  I feel like it might be a little bit.

2:09 -  Hoff to Iverson for a dunk and 3-point Gopher lead.  That was quite pretty, especially when you consider it was a couple of white dorks.

1:08 -  Hoff takes a retardedly stupid shot, which he misses, which leads to a break for Penn State, which leads to an open 3 for Battle, which he of course makes, and it's now 62-60 Nittany Lions.  Mother fuck.

0:52 - Do something, idiots.

0:38 - Hollins travels with 2 seconds on the shot clock.  Here is what happened after a Tubby Smith timeout:  pass in to Hoff, pick with no roll with Mbakwe at the top of the key, over to Rodney on the wing, dribble, dribble, throw to Hollins 35 feet from the hoop with 4 seconds on the shot clock.  That's your play?  Did you even draw anything up or did you just spend the whole time telling the team to play defense?  Honest to Odin, Tubby is a bad game coach.  Not terrible or horrible, but bad.  Bad bad bad.  What the fuck was that exactly?  Every single time they need to run a play at the end of the game they got nothin?  When they get in the huddle do you think Tubby just shrugs his shoulders?  Embarrassing, predictable, and ridiculous.  Also, for the record that's pretty much was Mrs. W says to me each night in bed.

0:22 - 16 seconds.  It took 16 seconds to make sure to foul Battle.  Fuckin' bunch of geniuses here.

0:22 - Lane violation?  Please let this matter.  It would be too sweet for it not to.

0:17 - Oh good, a timeout.  I'm sure we'll be seeing an absolute superb play here.

0:14 - Hoff throws it directly out of bounds.  I'm going to murder someone.

0:06-  Hoff for three after two PSU free throws.  Penn State still up by 2.  I have no idea why I'm still typing words.  FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFfff.

0:06 - Battle misses the first.  There's still a chance.  Makes the second.  Timeout Penn State.  Can't wait to see what kind of brilliant play Tubby draws up.  I'm willing to bet it ends up with Maverick getting the ball at the near free-throw line having to Tyus Edney it, but he will get to about mid-court and then throw it out of bounds.

Great play.  Just great.  Awesome.  Coaching genius.  I hate this team.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Hard to believe at this late date that the Gophers still haven't played Penn State, but here we are, with these two titans of college basketball about to square off, bubble implications abound.  The Nittany Lions sit at 6-7 in conference play and are tied with Minnesota (and Michigan) for sixth in the conference, but while the Gophers are in right now and the Wolverines are starting to trend towards an outside shot at a longshot bid, the Lions are moving in the wrong direction and have ceased to be included on ESPN's Bubble Watch.  Basically they'd need a miracle run that would include wins over the Gophers twice, Ohio State, and Wisconsin to get back in.  The scary part is I think they can do it.

They already have a win over Wisconsin this year - the clear second best team in the league, and pushed Purdue to the wire at Purdue.  They also still have that win over Illinois, which might not mean all that much right now but they were playing well at that time, and a win over Michigan State that will probably look better as time goes on.  They also gave the Buckeyes their stiffest non-Wisconsin test so far in conference and did it in Columbus.  Simply put, this team can beat, or lose to, any team at any time anywhere.  And it all still starts with Talor Battle.

He has some decent help this year, finally, which we'll get to later, but Battle is still that scoring dynamo who can single-handedly win a game for PSU.  He can hit the three, get to the rim, hit the mid-range, and get to the line.  He can score or set up his teammates, he grabs a ton of rebounds for a little guy, and he's a good defender.  To make it worse, he's basically torched the Gophers every time they've played other than one game in his freshman year, and tends to raise his level of play when needed - like when Penn State needs to win out the rest of the year to get him to his first and only NCAA  Tournament.  I fear what numbers he's going to put up, but based on his success against this team and Nolen still being out I think 35 isn't out of the question.

The good news for the Gophers is that most of his help comes from Jeff Brooks, a 6-8 senior who has made an incredible leap this season, nearly doubling his stats from last year (from 7.4 to 13.6 scoring, from 4.2 to 7.0 rebounding, and from 0.5 to 1.7 blocks all while increasing his field goal percent from .500 to .578).  I say this is good news for the Gophers because although Brooks may accidentally wander outside from time to time he's more of your classic banger, and with Sampson, Iverson, and Mbakwe in the paint Brooksy is going to find it tough to operate - just ask Christian Watford, Melsahn Basabe (the second time), or Jordan Morgan.

Outside of those two, Penn State does have some additional players worth looking out for, including two more senior forwards in Andrew Jones and David Jackson.  Jones a 6-10, 245 lb. big man who isn't much offensively at just 6.2 points per game, but who can help control the game through his work on the boards.  He averages 5.8 per game, good for 12th in the conference, and has hit double-digits twice in conference play including 14 against Wisconsin.  Jackson, on the other hand, is more your slasher/shooter, standing at 6-7 and averaging 10.4 points per game while shooting 36% from three.  He doesn't completely rely on the three to get his points with less than half his FG attempts from behind the line, but he can use it to light up at opponent - he's hit three 3s in a Big Ten game three times this year.  Since I'm not worried about Brooks, Jackson may be the biggest concern behind Battle.

I say maybe because the last guy I want to mention for the Lions is an intriguing sort, and that's sophomore point guard Tim Frazier.  Frazier reminds me quite a bit of a taller (6-1) Lewis Jackson - lightning quick with a great ability to penetrate off the dribble and the kind of player we wouldn't worry all that much about if Al Nolen was around.  But he's not, so I'm worried.  Frazier is more of an assist guy with 4.8 per game on the year compared to 4.8 points per game, but he's gaining confidence and becoming more aggressive.  After averaging 3.7 shots per game and 4.6 assists through PSU's first 20 games, he's averaged over 7 shots per game over their last four, increased his assists to 5.8 per game, and has shot 22 of his season total 56 free throws - that's 40% of his attempts in 17% of the games.  He's attacking the basket and either scoring, setting up a teammate, or getting fouled.  Basically Frazier is peaking right as he's about to play a team that's going to have trouble guarding him.  Ungood.  I'm looking for a career game here.

As far as team play goes, Penn State is a pretty good offensive team (36th in the country in offensive efficiency), if a bit of a chucker-type team (276th in 3-pt % despite shooting an above average amount of three-pointers), and a decent defensive team with some weaknesses.  Unfortunately, their weakness - not forcing turnovers and getting torched from three - are things they don't really have to worry about with the Gophers who will turn it over plenty on their own and couldn't hit a three-pointer (outside of Hoff) if they fell out of a boat.

So what we have here is a desperate team full of desperate seniors who need to basically win out home for those seniors to have a chance to make their only NCAA Tournament appearance at home against a team that historically plays poorly on the road, and one of those seniors is one of the best all-around players in the conference who torches the Gophers regularly when they do have their best defender, a player who is currently out and who is also the only player on the roster who can guard the team's point guard who is gaining confidence and ready to explode into a mini-star.  And also the best ways to be sure to beat Penn State - taking care of the basketball and hitting threes - are things the Gophers suck at.  So yeah.

Penn State 67, Minnesota 63.



Friday, February 5, 2010

O-Dog is Here (+ Penn State Preview)

The Twins have signed second-baseman Orlando Hudson to a 1-year, five-million dollar deal in an excellent move to shore up the weak infield positions, as well as giving the team a legit #2 hitter so Gardy can stop hitting Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert there.

Hudson is 32 and rumored to be on a decline according to some, but he's actually improved his OPS+ each of the last four seasons which just goes to show you can't trust a bunch of morons who use their preconceived notions and nothing more than their eyes and some kind of elusive "feel" to determine a player's worth. 

Last season he hit .283/.357/.417 with 62 walks and 35 doubles, and based on is last few seasons that is pretty much what you can expect next season, a massive bump from last year when Twins' second basemen combined to hit just .209/.302/.267 with just 25 extra-base hits.  Despite his four gold gloves, including one last year, his defense is probably slipping a bit according to a bunch of metrics I barely understand, but the upgrade on offense more than offsets any defects.

Simply put, a great signing by the Twins, and a good sign that they were willing to open the wallets and give a much needed piece five million dollars.  I was convinced they were going to offer three and lose him to Cleveland who would offer more money.  I'm a big fan of this signing.

I'm not as big a fan of the Gophers' NCAA chances at this point.  This Penn State game is obviously a must-win, but really it's more than that.  A win means, well, not much.  You just have to win it, because a loss is probably a season-ender.  Maybe not mathematically, but I don't think even the most ardent and optimistic gopher supporter would expect a bid if they lose on Saturday.

I was going to do a full five-question style preview, but what's the point?  You know the drill.  Penn State is a terrible team with one extraordinary player in Talor Battle and that's it.  About the only thing they do well is not allow offensive rebounds - they are mediocre to awful in every other measurable trait.  They're 0-10 in the Big Ten and already have losses to Iowa, UNC-Wilmington, and Tulane this season.  There is no real reason the Gophers should lose this game.

However.

Penn State won't end up going winless in the Big Ten this year, they just won't.  They're going to have to win at home, and they aren't going to beat Michigan State, Ohio State, or Purdue, so it's going to be Minnesota or Northwestern (or both).  The Gophers are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season, there's turmoil all over the place both off the court and on the court, Tubby's proclamation that nobody's job is safe as well as his bizarre substitution patters likely have this team completely rattled and I doubt anybody feels really confident over there right now.

In other words, they're ripe for the picking.  Bring on the Shockers.

Penn State 68, Minnesota 60.



Wednesday, December 30, 2009

A Win is a Win, or so they tell me

 As Shakespeare would say, "Would a win by any other name smell as sweet?"  I don't know what that means, but an ugly win is far better than a well-played loss, and the Gophers certainly managed to squeak out an ugly win, no doubt about that. 

Although if it wasn't for Lawrence Westbrook, they probably wouldn't have.  Simply put, L-Dub was out of his god damn mind last night.  If he didn't make every shot he took in the first half it was damn close, and he finished out 11-16 despite a Kingsbury-esque 40-footer he put up and missed towards the end of the second half.  And you know what?  Dude was so hot that I don't think anybody, Tubby included, had a problem with him putting that one up.  A heat check should always be allowed, and he deserved one.  Plus, if that goes in the roof on the barn probably gets blown right off. 

Other than Westbrook the only other notables last night were Hoffarber and Nolen.  Blake continues to shoot it well (3-7 on threes, 11 total poins) and show that he needs just an inch of room to get his shot off, and still plays a better all-around game than I like to give him credit for.  Nolen continues to show he's essentially unguardable getting to the lane (6 assists/1 turnover).  If only he had either a jump shot or the ability to finish in the lane he would be a top guard in the country.  Yeah, you heard me.  But he doesn't, so we'll instead have to be happy with an unguardable penetrating guard who will have some excellent games like last night and others where we want to strangle him.  Hopefully more of the former.

That's really pretty much it.  Nobody else did much of anything.  Devoe only played 12 minutes for some reason.  Talor Battle played well but didn't go crazy.  The Gophers played ok and won.  What more do you want?  Five more things?  Ok, fine, here you go:

1)  If you haven't been to Mac's Industrial Sports Bar on the corner of University and Central you should really check it out.  The Wings are awesome and happy hour runs until 7.  And 25 cent wings on Tuesdays after seven.

2)  Nice parking situation University of Minnesota.  We have a parking pass, which means we have a reserved spot in a particularl lot.  We roll in right at eight last night and there's a sign blocking our lot saying "Lot Full."  They oversold the lot (+shitty parking with snow on the ground, but what do you expect from a state so obsessed with snowmobiles?).  So Snacks and I jump out of the car and go talk to some poor student who was clearly far too timid.  Snacks used a bunch of lawyer talk about how we pre-paid for a space and I just kept pointing to what was clearly an open parking spot and saying "There's a spot right there."  I think at the end Snacks broke out the "reservations" bit from Seinfeld and I said something about liberty being a soul's right to breathe and then we moved the sign, parked, and moved on.  As we were walking away another car pulled in behind the sign, and I'm pretty sure the poor attendant girl started crying.

3)  I have never been prouder of Gopher fans than I was when Clem was given a standing ovation last night.  I recognize that a lot of people were doing it more for the team than for Clem, but I didn't hear any boos at all.  I expected to because, let's be honest, there are a holy lot of holier-than-thou morons out there, but there weren't any that I could hear.  Well done, folks.  He, and the entire team, deserved to be honored and respected, and it was done in an excellent way and I enjoyed it immensely.  And speaking of immense, I think Melvin Newbern ate Shawn Kemp (I still love you Melvin).

4)  I feel really weird and wrong doing this, but I think it's time we start to question Tubby a wee bit.  I have two big issues with last night:
  • First, these substitution patterns are driving me crazy.  The wholesale line changes have got to stop.  The team doesn't have two equal units.  The second unit is a large step down from the first, and the team invariably loses momentum when he goes with a 5-for-5.  If something is pissing you off about the first team, figure out which player(s) are the problem and replace them.  Please stop with the line change.  Then last night that second unit is playing crappy and loses the lead so Tubby takes a timeout.  You'd assume he'd bring back the good players, but he kept that whole group out there again.  I don't get it.  Here's how you do it:
    • PG:  Nolen 30 minutes, Joseph 10 minutes
    • SG:  Westbrook 30 minutes, Joseph 10 minutes
    • SF:  Hoffarber 30 minutes, Carter 10 minutes (more for Carter against more athletic teams)
    • PF:  Johnson 30 minutes, Carter 5, Iverson 5
    • C:  Sampson 25, Iverson 15
    • Slipping in a a few minutes here and there for Cobbs and Rodney (and Bostick).  That's a good starting place.  Having a deep team doesn't mean you have to play everybody a bunch of minutes, especially when it means you lose track of one of your best players and somehow only give Devoe 12 minutes last night.  Yes, that's right.  Devoe only played 12 minutes.
  •  The strategy Tubby chose to employ against Battle was baffling, and the team is lucky it didn't backfire any worse than it did.  Having the guards switch on every screen instead of just choosing either Westbrook or Nolen and having him attach himself to Battle wherever he went just seemed like it was a huge mistake, and it did in fact lead to two open three-pointers (one of which was a 30-footer) for Battle where nobody was guarding him due to confusion.  The switching even resulted in Blake on Battle quite a few times.  Luckily neither Battle nor DeChellis picked up on this.  If I had been coaching Penn State I would have just run Battle through picks until Hoffarber was on him, then have him reset the offense and go with a 1-4 isolation play - unstoppable.  I also think that against a scorer like Battle it's easier for a defender to contain him when they are on him all game and can get into a rhythm.  
Obviously neither of these things killed them last night since they still managed to snag the win, but I still have my concerns.  Make no mistake though, I still love Tubby and would never say anything against him.  Except for that thing that I just wrote above.

5)  Finally, I realized I haven't given you an update on Reggie Holmes (Morgan State chucker guy) lately.  Since my last Holmes update, Morgan State has played two games; against Towson (W) and against Eastern Kentucky (L).  In the game against Towson, Holmes scored just 20 points due to his 6-20 shooting which including a mind-numbing 0-9 from three-point range, all while notching zero assists.  In the team's loss to Eastern Kentucky, he hit on his season average almost exactly, scoring 25 on 8-25 shooting, which once again includes a mind-boggling 6-19 from three point range.  And once again he managed to tally not a single assist, leaving his season total still at 4 (that's 0.3 assists per game).  He has a lot of work to do if he's going to match that career high of 19.  And his 222 shots so far this year are now third in all of NCAA Basketball (despite just 41% shooting), which is equal to the amount Westbrook and Joseph, the top two attempters on the Gophers, have taken combined and more than all but two Gophers (Westy and DJ) took all last season.

Whoa.

No wonder he always looks so tired and disinterested.



Monday, December 28, 2009

Penn State Preview + Gopher Conference Prediction

I basically wrote the preview in this morning's post.  In case you missed it, I just typed TALOR BATTLE somewhere in the neighborhood of thirty times.  Ok that's a lie, I typed it once and then copied and pasted it a bunch of times - it's still effort.  It's not that far off of an accurate preview - he really is the whole team.

Battle leads the team in minutes (35.1 per game), points (18.8), rebounds (5.8), assists (3.5) and has more than double the number of field goal attempts (173) of the second-leading chucker on the Nittany Lions (Jeff Brooks - 82) and 12 more than anybody else in the Big Ten (despite shooting just 43%).  I'm sure you remember him, particularly from his 29 point outburst to lead PSU to a win in East Lansing over Michigan State last year, but more likely for his single-handed upset of the Gophers in State College last year (if you don't recall, Battle scored 7 points in the final minutes turning a Gopher lead into a Gopher loss).

He is no doubt a tough player and is difficult to handle because he can hit the three but isn't reliant on it, and is also able to get his points either by getting to the rim, hitting a pull up, or getting out in transition.   But without much help (and there isn't much), Battle can force things (he also leads the team in turnovers) and has tossed up some clunkers:  3-15 shooting against Temple, 8-23 agains Wilmington, and 3-13 against Tulane, to name a few.  Of course, he can also put up 32 with 9 boards like he did against Virginia Tech or a 27-8 like he did against Penn or even play the distributor role like he did in in their last game against American with 16 points and 7 assists.  No doubt Al Nolen is going to have his hands full.



Luckily nobody else will.  Penn State has a bunch of spazzes who average between six and eight points per game, but nobody to really make you shake in your boots.  6-7 David Jackson had an outburst for 26 against Sacred Heart, but I'm pretty sure their whole team is 6-4 white guys so I'm not all that impressed.  Chris Babb chucks three-pointers like that guy who drives you crazy at the Y, but he shoots just 33% so chuck away, chuck-boy.  Someone named Bill Edwards has hit double-figures in scoring the last two games, but he also shot 1-8 against Maryland-Baltimore County.  6-10 Andrew Jones was one of the guys who was supposed to be a big contributor this year, but he can't even be bothered to break double-figures more than once a month.  Even second-leading scorer Jeff Brooks is averaging 3 per game in the teams last three outings and just shot 1-7 against American.

No, there isn't much here to scare you outside of Battle.  Even their kenpom numbers aren't thrilling - they are decidely average every where.  The only real standout stats are they don't allow offensive rebounds (8th best in the nation), they don't turn it over (22nd), and they are terrible at turning other teams over (287th) and never block shots (314th) or get steals (294th).

Don't forget, this is the same team who has already lost to Wilmington and Tulane, and doesn't have a good win yet this year.  The Gophers have shown they don't have much trouble with bad teams, and Penn State is a bad team.  Even if Battle goes off, they should win, and if he doesn't, they should roll.

Minnesota 80, Penn State 64.

FUN FACT:  Since 1990, Penn State has finished in the top three of the NIT five times, but have just three NCAA bids.  Also, remember Jan Jagla?


As far as a quick prediction on how the conference season will go:

Dec 29 vs. Penn State:  WIN - no problem
Jan 2 @ Iowa: WIN - this game terrifies me, but holy crap is Iowa bad.
Jan 5 @ Purdue:  LOSS - only the Dawger would call this a Gopher win
Jan 9 vs. Ohio State: WIN - might be different with Evan Turner, but should be a win without him
Jan 13 @ Michigan State: LOSS - No way.
Jan 17 @ Indiana:  WIN - road games and Gophers are still scary, but if they lose to Indiana it's time to just quit the season
Jan 23 vs. Michigan State:  LOSS - I think the Gophers have a big win in them this year, but the Spartans match up too well.
Jan 26 vs. Northwestern:  WIN - Scary team this year, but should be handled at home.
Jan 31 @ Ohio State:  LOSS - considered a win here, but does going into Columbus and winning really sound like something this team would do?
Feb 6 @ Penn State:  WIN - they did it two years ago and almost did last year, and this year's Gophers are the best of the three and this year's Lions are the worst of the three.
Feb 11 vs. Michigan:  WIN - Earlier this year I thought this would end up being a hell of a game.  Not so much.
Feb 14 @ Northwestern:  LOSS - NW is good this year, and they always sown the Gophers in Evanston.
Feb 18 vs. Wisconsin:  WIN - Tubby owns Bo.
Feb 20 vs. Indiana:  WIN - Still suck.
Feb 24 vs. Purdue:  WIN - This seems like a place for the team's big win.  JaJuan Johnson vs. Ralph Sampson is the matchup of the century.
Feb 27 @ Illinois:  LOSS - winning in Champaign is not allowed as far as the Gophers are concerned.
March 3 @ Michigan:  LOSS - flipped flopped on this one a bunch, but don't you see the Wolverines getting better as the year goes on and doesn't it feel like the kind of game the Gophers always lose down the stretch?
March 7 vs. Iowa:  WIN - Nice easy win to wrap up.

That puts them at 11-7 in conference play and 20-10 overall.  With the win over Butler on a neutral court and an ok non-conference schedule, they should be in the NCAA Tournament without issue.  Probably to lose in the first round.

[EDIT:  I meant to point out this link from the Daily Gopher (for the three people who read this crappy blog and don't read that awesome one) where Gopher Nation breaks down all kinds of nerd stats on your favorite team.  It's a good read, check it out.]

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Fantasy College Basketball Update

I laid the rules and some initial strategy out in this post.

Here is where the draft currently stands:


1.1 DWG - Luke Harangody, F, Notre Dame
1.2 TLEF - Craig Brackins, F/C, Iowa State
1.3 NotoriousTREJetBrit - Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas
1.4 Saintfool - Grievis Vasquez, G, Maryland
1.5 Aerial Assault - Kyle Singler, F, Duke
1.6 WuBanger - John Wall, G, Kentucky
1.7 Truck - Jarvis Varnado, F/C, Mississippi St.
1.8 Jeter23 - Patrick Patterson, F, Kentucky
1.9 Tar Heel Boy - Damion James, G/F, Texas
1.10 BasketballCoach - Michael Washington, F/C, Arkansas
1.11 Tobias Funke - Evan Turner, G/F, Ohio State
1.12 Balco - Greg Monroe, F/C, Georgetown

2.1 Balco - Lazar Hayward, F, Marquette
2.2 Tobias Funke - James Anderson, G, Oklahoma St.
2.3 Basketball Coach - Tasmin Mitchell, F, LSU
2.4 Tar Heel Boy - Trevor Booker. F. Clemson
2.5 Jeter23 - Devan Downey, G, South Carolina
2.6 Truck - Dominique Jones, G, South Florida
2.7 WuBanger - Jeremy Hazell, G, Seton Hall
2.8 Aerial Assault -
2.9 Saintfool -
2.10 NotoriousTREJetBrit -
2.11 TLEF -
2.12  DWG - 

So I am five picks away, and wil have two in a row.  I'm hoping to get Manny Harris from Michigan and JaJuan Johnson from Purdue right here.  Harris I think would be a steal, and while it seems a little early for Johnson, it turns out there is actually quite a shortage of centers in college hoops, and since we have to start two of them, it feels like it's time. 

If Harris is gone, an intriguing prospect would be Derrick Favors, the freshman from Georgia Tech who qualifies as both a forward and a center.  He's called "the favorite to win ACC Rookie of the Year", but is that enough to draft him this early?  Guards Cory Higgins of Colorado and Talor Battle of Penn State are also possibilities.  Last year, Battle put up 16.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1.2 steals per game with just 2.4 turnovers.  With less help around him, I could see him pushing those numbers to 20/7/5/2, which would be elite level production. 

I may have to take him.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Penn Stater Hater


It's currently Friday night and I've had about eleventeen vodka/cranberries (with lime) and since I'm a bigger loser than even Mama Dawger and am sitting at home, I figured I might as well do the Gopher/Penn State preview.

The first thing you need to realize is that there is some actual worry here. Coming off the worst game in Gopher history that somehow resulted in a win, could the Gophers be vulnerable? Penn State is 2-1 in the conference, with wins over Northwestern and Purdue, with their only loss being a road loss by four at a suddenly very tough Wisconsin team. Should we be concerned? Are they for real?

I'm here to answer all those questions, but first I will tackle the question of "What exactly is a Nittany Lion?" Here's your answer:

"A Nittany Lion is a legendary cryptid rumored to inhabit parts of the Americas. It is associated more recently with sightings of an allegedly unknown animal in Puerto Rico (where these sightings were first reported), Mexico, and the United States, especially in the latter's Latin American communities. The name comes from the animal's reported habit of attacking and drinking the blood of livestock, especially goats. Physical descriptions of the creature vary. Eyewitness sightings have been claimed as early as 1990 in Puerto Rico, and have since been reported as far north as Maine, and as far south as Chile. It is supposedly a heavy creature, the size of a small bear, with a row of spines reaching from the neck to the base of the tail."


Sounds pretty bad ass. But what about the basketball team? Well, outside of those wins over Northwestern and Purdue, they also have a win at Georgia Tech and no bad losses (vs. Rhode Island, vs. Temple). So it's clear that this year at least, they are no joke - despite preseason big ten predictions. Like Iowa, they are another team who moves slowly but is very efficient on the offensive end, ranking 38th in the country in offensive efficiency. Like Iowa, they shoot the ball from three very well (40%, 21st in the country). Unlike Iowa, they don't turn the ball over (8th in the nation), don't commit fouls (6th in the country) and absolutely don't give up offensive rebounds (3rd), as well as being a much better defensive team (65th in the country). Yeah, there is plenty to worry about here.

In terms of individual players, Talor Battle has gone from annoying and missing a letter in his name to one of the most improved players in the country, currently leading the Big Ten in scoring and coming in fourth in assists at 18.9 and 5.3. He also ranks 11th in the conference in rebounding with 6.1 (at 5-11) and leads in three pointers made while shooting 42% from three The good news here is that Al "Jacque" Nolen should be able to handle him. Should. Mainly because I'm having trouble believing in Battle - kind of like Jesus.

Other than Battle there are two other dudes you really have to worry about, 6-1 guard Stanley "Would you Like some Hand Lotion" Pringle and 20th year senior Jamelle Cornley. Cornley has been around forever and is still pretty much the same guy - undersized and tough as hell. His stats have been remarkably consistent through all four years of his career, but he has managed to put up career-high averages in points and rebounds this season. Pringle may have improved even more than Battle from last season, taking his scoring from 7 per game to over 15, and improving his shooting from 37% to 51% and his three-point shooting from 41% to 53%, second only to noted Gopher-killer Matt Gatens in the Big Ten.

Beyond those three studmuffins, the Nittany Lions are a bit thin, and quite undersized. They don't have another player who averages more than 6.1 points per game, and don't really play anyone bigger than 6-9. Nolen should shut down Battle, Westbrook should shut down Pringle, and Damian Johnson should have no problem handling Cornley. That being said, I'm predicting a surprisingly great game out of Cornley, and a career type game out of senior backup guard Danny Morrissey, currently averaging a career low in points and three point percentage, but who inexplicably goes off for 25 points, including 7-10 on three pointers. Despite that, the Gophers still take a ten point lead into the final three minutes, but miss free throw after free throw down the stretch, allowing PSU to pull within two at 67-65. Following two missed free throws by Al Nolen, Battle flies down the court and forces up a bad three in a double team, despite having Morrissey open in the corner, which falls short and the Gophers pull off the win by 2.


By the way, Bogart recommended the movie Four Christmases, but Mrs. W watched it online the other day and told me, "It's just what you'd expect, but twice as painful" and she usually loves stupid crap like that, so I'm pretty sure it's the worst movie ever. Nice recommendation, retard.