What's up with Franky L.?

I'm back. Sorry about no drunk blogging from Philly, folks, but it was our national sales conference which essentially means meetings all day, a very short break, and then a drinks/dinner/reception/event in the evening (with free booze all night) and not getting back to the room until after midnight.

There wasn't really much to report anyway. Due to the economy, there wasn't much in the way of gifts (at the last three (two different companies) we had gotten an i-pod, an i-pod speaker system, and a digital picture frame and this year we got a company logo'd t-shirt) and nothing in the way of events (in the passed we've hung out at the rose bowl, warner brothers studio, sea world, and a Phillies game and this year we never left the hotel). It wasn't a bad trip. I had one of the best dinners ever one night (crab legs, grilled prawns, grilled asparagus with olive oil and sea salt, risotto, lamb chops, jerk chicken with tiramisu, bread pudding, and creme brulet for dessert). It was absolutely fantastic. I also had a conversation with three black people - at the same time - one night. So all-in-all a pretty good trip.

Unfortunately when I returned to the airport and got to my car I found it had been keyed. My car got freakin' keyed. A lot. And it's not like it stands out, it's a freakin' Mazda Protege for god's sake. But sure enough, there it was, a whole shit load of key marks all over the spoiler (don't ask me why there's a spoiler, the car was Dr. Acula's first, ask him). What the hell? It makes no sense. Like Vince Vega said, "There's nothing more chickenshit than effing with a man's automobile." Suck. Anyway, on to the important issue - What's up with Francisco Liriano?

After that incredible first season, the injury and surgery, and disastrous start to last year, he finally seemed to have figured it out in the last two months of last season going 6-1 with an ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of 1.19 after being called back up in August. Now all of a sudden, *BOOM*, he's blowing up (the bad kind).

After his last disaster of an outing, his third straight with just four innings pitched, Liriano is now posting an ERA of 6.60, a WHIP of 1.62, and the all-important record of 2-7.

Basically we are looking at bad news all-around. His strikeout rate is the lowest it's ever been (7.7 k/9 vs. 7.9 last year) while his walk rate is the highest he's ever posted (4.3 bb/9 vs. 3.8). It continues to get ugly. His opponent's batting average is a career high (.288 vs .257), and he's giving up the most home runs in his career (1.4 HR/9 vs. 0.8). He's giving up more line drives (21% vs. 18% LY) and less ground balls (38% vs. 42%) - these are both bad - and a higher percentage of the fly balls he allows are leaving the yard (12% vs. 8%).

I keep trying to find a silver lining here, but there's nothing. Batters are swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone (25.5% vs. 27.5%) but making more contact, both outside the zone (55% vs. 50%) and overall (78.6% vs. 75.5%). His Batting-average-on-balls-in-play is higher than average at .334, but he's always been a bit high (.313 LY) and a higher number is to be expected with that many line drives given up. He's given up more than four runs in a game just as often as given up less than four (4 vs. 4).

If you want to grasp at something, grasp at these two things:
1. He was masterful in the May 3rd game against Detroit, going 8 1/3 innings and giving up just two runs and four hits to go against 8 strikeouts.
2. He isn't throwing his changeup. This year he throws the changeup just 14% of the time. Last year he threw it 20%, and in his super stud year he threw it on 19% of his pitches. Maybe he just needs to get back to the change up? Although looking further maybe not. In his good starts he's thrown it just 17.4%, 10.6%, 12.5%, and 8.1% of the time.

Seriously? I think he's done. He's absolutely getting shelled out there, and there's nothing in the numbers - or watching him - to suggest it's a temporary setback. If he has another poor outing on Friday night he's going to lose his spot in the rotation with the return of Perkins and the emergence of Swarzak. Whether it's to AAA or to the bullpen, I don't think he'll recover, not a third time. He may develop into a good setup guy, although his strikeout rate isn't as high as I'd like for that anymore.

Sorry kids. Francisco Liriano is the next Lindsay Lohan. The bright shining star who everybody wants to bone one minute, a complete trainwreck starring in direct-to-video features the next. Both cases incredibly sad. What could have been?