DWG Projected NCAA Tournament Teams

I figured I'd take a crack at projecting out who will be invited to the NCAA Basketball Tournament in March.  Let's take a look at this when the tournament rolls around and see how I did.

American East (1):  Maine
Atlantic 10 (3):  Xavier, Temple, Richmond
ACC (6):  Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Maryland
Atlantic Sun (1):  East Tennessee State
Big 12 (6):  Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Missouri, Colorado
Big East (8):  UCONN, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pitt, St. Johns, Syracuse, Villanova, WVU
Big Sky (1):  Weber State
Big South (1):  Coastal Carolina
Big Ten (7):  Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State
Big West (1):  UC-Santa Barbara
Colonial (2):  VCU, Old Dominion
C-USA (2):  Memphis, Southern Miss
Horizon (1):  Butler
Ivy (1):  Harvard
MAAC (1):  Fairfield
MAC (1):  Central Michigan
MEAC (1):  Morgan State
Missouri Valley (2):  Wichita State, Missouri State
Mountain West (4):  San Diego State, BYU, New Mexico, UNLV
NEC (1):  Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley (1):  Murray State
Pac-10 (3):  Washington, UCLA, Arizona
Patriot (1):  American
SEC (5):  Miss State, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss
Southern (1): Wofford
Southland (1):  Stephen F. Austin
SWAC (1):  Jackson State
Summit (1):  Oakland
Sun Belt (1):  Western Kentucky
WCC (1):  Gonzaga
WAC (1):  Utah State

Just missed:  Seton Hall, Detroit, Dayton, Loyola-Marymount, George Mason, Tennessee

Wasn't that an exciting post?

Ok, I'll give you a little bit more and strongly recommend George Dohrmann's new book, Play their Hearts Out.  It takes a look behind the scenes of the youth basketball machine and how it starts turning kids into commodities to be used and traded for money and prestige as early as 10-years old.  It is a fascinating look into a weird, sometimes creepy world that turns a kids game being played by kids into big business.  I couldn't put it down, and it's the gift that keeps on giving because most of the kids who are featured in the book are now freshman or sophomores in college and I keep seeing their names pop up playing for teams like Cal, Oregon State, New Mexico, and Maryland.  In fact, the kid who hit the game-winner for Maryland tonight, Pe'Shon Howard, is one of the more prominent characters.  I can't recommend it more highly.  In fact, my brother is reading it now and my dad is reading it after him, but after that I can send it to somebody.  If you want it for free, shoot me an email with your address.

Gophers outlast Winona State, Drive me Crazy

Have we seen this before?  In an all to familiar twist, the Gophers really struggled in the half court against Winona.  There was a lot of confusion and a lot of running down of the shot clock, leaving the guards to try to create on their own with single-digits left to shoot - sound familiar?  What was happening was that Winona was doubling everywhere and everyone in the post, even going so far as to double the post before the ball was even delivered.  This would lead to the guard with the ball trying to pass it into a post player with two guys on him, which, you'd think, would mean somebody was open. 

And somebody was, but Winona was quick to recover, the open player wasn't making himself available in a passing lane, and the player with the ball wasn't making smart or quick decisions.  This all leads to chaos, confusion, and a mere five point lead at halftime.

It was more of the same in half number two, leading to Ralph Sampson taking a pro range three while being blanket covered by his man and throwing it over the shot clock, and Colt Iverson putting it on the floor and trying to drive to the hole from the top of the key before having it knocked away.  Thankfully Tubby pulled the line change and the second group was willing to get out and run, looking for opportunities in transition and quickly turned the small Gopher lead into almost twenty, showing how a team that was superior athletically could get a bunch of easy buckets by using that athleticism.

Things were pretty much fine after that.  Winona made a game of it by hitting a crazy silly amount of three-pointers, and the Gophers won a game by six against a team they should have beaten by at least 20.  I don't care that they're one of the best D-II teams, they're still a D-II team.  But I really don't care about any of that, I really just care about the fact that they still can't run a proper half-court offense.  Seriously, this worries me so much that my anticiperection for this season has now turned into a fear boner that they're going to let me down.  Ugh.  Maybe it would have been different if Devoe hadn't been hurt, or maybe he would have just been the one forcing up shots all the time.  I don't know.  I'm disgusted.

And Al Nolen is still Al Nolen.  For all the good that is, and all the bad. 

Two quick positives so I don't get accused of being all doom and gloom:

-  Rodney Williams put the ball on the floor and drove to the hoop from the perimeter at least twice during the game, once successfully and once not, but he at least showed he can do it.  He absolutely has all the potential ESPN keeps writing about.  It's going to be fun to watch him put it all together.

-  Maurice Walker showed some very nice moves in the paint, showcasing a real nice spin move and a soft touch around the hoop.  Of course, it's a bit hard to truly evaluate him, considering Winona had nobody near his size, height-wise or weight-wise, and he may have weighed as much as any two Winona forwards, but still, he looked very good.  As a fourth post guy, he's tough to beat.


Let's just hurry up and get to the real games.  I don't want to waste all my righteous anger on games that don't count.  I want to disappointed in games that actually matter in the standings.

Big Ten Wrap-up, 11/8/2010

Last week the rest of the Big Ten team's kicked off their exhibition slates (Illinois started the week before) and every team in the conference played a game.  Surprise!  They went 11-0, with only Illinois struggling in their game (and Michigan, but they suck).  It doesn't really tell us much as far as beating up on this level of competition but we can find some player trends that can be interesting.  You can find my thoughts on your beloved Gopher hoopsters here, but there were some interesting developments from other teams:

• Illinois turned the ball over 20 and 23 times in their two exhibition games, leading to smaller than expected winning margins (10 and 9 points).  I expect this to be their achilles heel throughout the year, since they haven't had an actual point guard since Chester Frazier graduated.  And yes, I'm aware Demetri McCamey led the Big Ten in assists last year.  I don't care.  You will never convince me he's an actual point guard. 
• Maurice Creek scored 16 points in 20 minutes during Indiana's win over Franklin College.  It's not so much the dominating inferior competition, as it is coming back from a big time knee injury to take a team-high 14 shots in only 20 minutes that tells me he's being aggressive, which likely means there are no lingering issues.
• I was wondering if Purdue would end up with a third scorer emerging or if it would be a collective Robbie Hummel pick-me-up, and the first game was a collective effort with six guys scoring between six and nine points in their game against Indianapolis (Moore and Johnson led with 11 and 13), including talented freshmen Terone and Anthony Johnson.
• Draymond Green has added the three-point shot to his repertoire.  Last year Green shot just 16 three-pointers all year, making two.  Last week in Michigan State's game against Saginaw Valley State he shot three, making two.  Interesting.  Also if he and Maurice Walker ever guard each other in a game that floor is caving in.
• Jershon Cobb is going to make an impact for Northwestern after starting and scoring 12 points in 21 minutes.  He's a top 150 recruit in the country, I'm assuming the first for the Wildcats, and they're looking to him immediately, which makes me think he's probably as good as advertised.  Adding a fourth scorer makes Northwestern far more dangerous and far more relevant.  
• Tim Hardaway, Jr. is certainly not afraid to shoot, and I'm guessing he's going to kill the Wolverines more than once this year.  Despite shooting 1-7 from three and 2-10 overall he led the team in shot attempts and three-point attempts.  
• John Gasser might be the non-descript, non-heraled white freshman who makes the biggest splash for the Badgers this year.  He led Wisconsin freshmen in minutes (20) and points (9), and fun fact:  he's from Port Washington, Wisconsin, which is where the hit TV show Step-by-Step took place.  I always loved Al.  Once she got old enough, I mean.

• Talor Battle is still not getting any help from his front court.  Their senior starting trio tallied just a combined 18 points against a severly undersized East Stroudsberg team with nobody over 6-6 on the roster.  If Penn State is going to make a surprising run to an NCAA bid, Battle's going to need somebody to help out in the paint.  This doesn't bode well.
• I mentioned in my Big Ten preview that the one big weakness for the Buckeyes could be a point guard, but it perhaps freshman Aaron Craft is up for the task because he notched 8 assists to go along with 12 points in the Ohio State rout of Walsh.  It's also tough to get a true gauge on somebody's value when their team wins 102-56, and Adam Boone once looked like the next Magic in an exhibition game, but this certainly isn't a bad sign for OSU. 
• Iowa is still terrible, even if they did manage to win by 45.  And Eric May will probably have to carry the team.  Have fun with that.

So, you see, there are a few nuggets we can take from these games.  Some may be indicators of the future, while some may not, but what the hell, we're just here chat anyway.

COMING UP THIS WEEK

Illinois gets things rolling in the 2k Sports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, playing UC-Irvine tonight and Toledo on Wednesday as the 2010-2011 College Basketball season gets officially rolling.  Other Big Ten teams play their final exhibition tune-ups during the week before getting things started for real over the weekend, mainly versus cupcake city.  The only two games that could be remotely competitive are the Gophers vs. Wofford and Northwestern vs. Northern Illinois.  Wofford won the Southern Conference last year, almost upset Wisconsin in round 1 of the NCAA Tournament, and return four starters including conference POY (and Minnesota boy) Noah Dahlman.  It should be a good test to see exactly where the Gophers stand this year.  Northwestern vs. NIU is only interesting because it's rare a Big Ten team opens on the road, but the Wildcats should be able to handle them without issue.

AROUND THE NATION  

Still no real games, just a bunch of exhibitions that nobody really reports on unless it's Duke, so no real comments here.  Of note though is the play of Harrison Barnes, a preseason All-American as a freshman.  Let's just say he didn't exactly live up to the hype in his first exhibition game, tallying just .

Coming up, the season gets started for Pitt, Texas, and Maryland early as they join Illinois in the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney and tip-off Monday, with Pitt facing a good tester right out of the box in Rhode Island.  Then everybody gets going over the weekend, with the best games probably Seton Hall @ Temple, Georgetown @ Old Dominion, and Northern Iowa @ Syracuse on Friday, San Diego State @ Long Beach State and Weber State @ Utah State on Saturday, and South Dakota State @ Iowa on Sunday (LOL, at least it should be competitive).

College hoops is here.  It's finally here.

Finally, here are the futures bets I've got for the season. If you can still get any of these teams at anywhere near these odds I would highly recommend jumping on them, although most of them have come considerably down. Because I'm a genius.


TO WIN NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP:
Washington 60-1
Minnesota 150-1
Virginia Tech 200-1
San Diego State 100-1
NC State 200-1
Arizona 100-1
Baylor 30-1

TO WIN CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON TITLE:
Minnesota 12-1 (BIG TEN)
St. Johns 12-1 (BIG EAST)
Missouri 6-1 (BIG 12)

I also kind of like NC State in the ACC at 8-1, but Duke is so loaded this year it's basically throwing money away betting against them.

Minnesota Gopher Basketball 2010: Player outlook

Much like Tom Cullen I managed to survive Captain Trips, and I also managed to watch the game against Northeastern State on replay on the Big Ten Network (well, three-quarters of it because after that it was like yawn), so here are some thoughts about the players who matter for the year.  Overall, I really think this has a chance to be a very, very special season.  M-O-O-N, that spells Go Gophers.

Maverick Ahanmisi:   He looked pretty shaky in Canada, but was better against NE St.  Early reports made it seem as if he couldn't dribble with his left hand or kept dribbling off his foot or couldn't play point guard, but he didn't look like he was a complete waste.  If he ends up playing a lot of significant minutes that won't be good, but I'm cautiously optimistic he might be an ok back-up by the end of his time here.

Chip Armelin:  The latest Gopher freshman signing for the class and reportedly the most athletic, he looks exactly as advertised - incredible athlete and a bit of a project.  He showed he has a pretty good looking jump shot and is definitely a great athlete, but he was also out of position a ton on defense - mainly because he can't seem to harness his energy and is a bit of a spaz.  Dare I say it, but he reminded me quite a bit of Rico Tucker.  We all know Dan Monson failed to reign in and teach the highest potential gopher of all-time, sad story that is, but with Tubby here now I have faith Chip is going to end up a very, very good player.  Just maybe not this year.

Elliott Eliason:  Reports are that he's going to redshirt, and that makes sense given the Gophers' depth in the paint and the fact that it wouldn't kill him to put on some weight before taking on the big ten wide bodies.  Still, from what I've seen I think he could contribute this year if he was needed.  He seems to have a nice feel for the game and good fundamentals.  Should be a quality player down the road.

Blake Hoffarber:  Blake be Blake.  I think he's turned into just the type of the player a contending team needs.  He's obviously an amazing dead-eye shooter who has developed a hair trigger release, but he's also a very smart player, which leads to good passes, good decisions, and getting more rebounds than a player of his size and athletic ability should.  I'm still a bit worried about him against the more athletic teams and their ability to expose him on defense and/or shut him down on the offensive end, but he's going to be the difference between winning and losing at least once this year.  Could be the next Lee Humphrey.

Austin Hollins:  Looking like he might be the best of this year's freshman, Hollins has shown an ability to play defense, handle the ball, shoot the perimeter shot, and put it on the floor and get to the rim.  Just a really solid all-around game and very impressive for a player so young.  I don't know how he'll hold up to a full season of Big 10 ball because he's still a bit slight, but he's going to contribute this year and be a big part of how far the team can go. 

Colt Iverson:  Iverson has gone from completely uncoordinated oaf two years ago to semi-skilled brutish oaf coming into this year (think Jeff Hagen with less fat and more elbows).  Over the last two years he's added an awkward drop-step to a power layup and an awkward jump hook to a repertoire that used to be made up of "layup" and "dunk", so it was a solid step forward.  I sort of think he's hit his ceiling skill-wise, but with better  fundamentals and more confidence he could probably get himself in the 10 pt/8 reb range by his senior year.  That's about a million years better than I expected, so I salute you, sir.  Also plays the Miles Tarver role by making it clear he'll mix it up if you start effing with the high priced talent.  Probably the most important role he plays on this team, and I'm not kidding.  Still gets most of his points by out-muscling weaker and smaller players, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts when he goes against defenders of similar stature, something he was unable to do last season.

Devoe Joseph:  This is the scorer right here.  Played limited minutes against NE St. due to an injury which shouldn't be a problem, but from what I've seen he's willingly and ably stepped into the Lawrence Westbrook role of the guy who can get his shot if nothing else is working.  Hopefully this year most of that comes in the flow of the offense and we don't see as much of the "pass it around for 30 seconds, get nothing, and then throw it to the guard and make him get his own shot."

Trevor Mbakwe:  Oh my baby santa jesus.  Built like Deebo but with the athletic ability of Sidney Deane, Mbakwe is going to be an absolute force this year.  I don't know if the Gophers have had anybody with that kind of combination - ever.  I don't know if he has a jump shot, or at least I haven't noticed (probably because I'm too busy drooling), and we haven't seen him have to take his game at anybody anywhere near his skill or size level yet, but I am insanely optimistic here.  Reign Man II has arrived.   

Al Nolen:  I said after last season that if Nolen could do what Eric Harris did, and that's take his game (great defender, great penetrator, good distributor, terrible shooter) and add a dependable three-point jump shot to it he'd be damn near unstoppable.  I haven't seen any indication that it has happened and he wasn't looking to score at all against NE St., but then again he didn't have to because the Gophers could just do whatever they wanted whenever they wanted.  It will be interesting to see how he responds against legit competition when he has no choice but to show he can make a bucket or two.  If he's even a capable outside shooter it can elevate this team another level.  Like Blake, I expect he will be the difference between winning and losing in at least one game this year, although I'm less confident of the the column he can put that game in.

Ralph Sampson III:  I've made no secret of my love for Ralph on here and my firm belief that he can one day be a Big Ten POY contender, and he's shown that his outside touch on the jumper has gotten even better.  I fear he might have a propensity to fall in love with the perimeter a bit too much, and he showed a tendency the last couple of years to completely disappear in games when the opponent's big men were knocking him around a bit, but hopefully he's shed that bit of softness and is willing to mix it up.  With Mbakwe, Iverson, and Walker on the team he doesn't have to be a banger, but he can't shy away from battles under the rim either.

Maurice Walker:  Definitely a big boy, but he looks like he's already slimmed down a bit since Canada and hopefully Tubby can keep him moving in that direction.  He has good hands and good footwork, so less body he has to carry around the more athletic and quicker he's going to be.  Should be solid for 10 minutes or so a game this year, but we won't really know how good or how ungood he will be this season until we see him against a team that has post players who don't get knocked out of bounds by his sheer size.

Rodney Williams:  Still dunks like a crazy person and still hits threes, which are both very good things, but I'm still hoping to see him develop a mid-ranger jumper and/or learn to take the ball and attack the rim.  All the potential in the world is there, and he'll be very good this year, but if he had Austin Hollins' game with his ability he'd be a Big Ten POY candidate right now.  This is not a knock on Rodney, he's still just a sophomore, but I see so much ability and just hope Tubby can help him take it up a notch.  If nothing else, he's looking like a good candidate to be an all league type defender right now.


In case you couldn't tell, I feel a bit too optimistic about the team this year, and it has nothing to do with dismantling NE State.  Every Big Ten team (with the exception of Illinois this year) dismantles their exhibition opponents.  It has more to do with looking at this collection of talent and knowing we have Tubby on the bench to direct it.  Honestly at this point I'm thinking anything less than the Sweet 16 is a disappointment.  I am crazy?  M-O-O-N, that spells homer.

Gopher post Coming

I will have a post on the Gopher exhibition game and my expectations for the season probably tomorrow night or maybe Friday.  Unfortunately, I got a flu shot last week and have now been hit with a terrible flu (whatever happened to "First do no harm"?) so I had to skip the game so I could sleep for 12 straight hours. 

Big Ten College Basketball 2010 Preview

With the Gophers tipping off tonight I'm beyond geeked. I am incredibly fired up for both the Gophers and college basketball in general, and in that spirit, here is my Big Ten preview.

1.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  I'm not entirely sure why everybody seems to have forgotten or overlooked these guys, but they could be every bit as good as last year or even better.  Evan Turner is a big loss, there's no doubt about that, but either or both of David Lighty or William Buford could make a leap and fill the scoring role.  They have Diebler back to do what Diebler does, the defensive presence of Dallas Lauderdale back for the 8th year, and they add a major weapon in freshman center Jared Sullinger, Rivals #5 incoming recruit for this season.  I had a chance to watch him a little bit this year, and he is absolutely the real deal and a complete beast down low.  I think we're going to see a real battle if him and Mbakwe square off.  All of that plus what ESPN ranks as the #2 recruiting class in the country and these guys are loaded again.  The real question is who handles the ball?  Remember, Turner was the de facto point guard last season and they never really developed anybody behind him.  But if one of the wings can fill the Turner role or freshman Aaron Craft (#111 overall, #28 point guard) is good enough to play right away, the Buckeyes will be in the national picture.   

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  I was pretty sure Sparty was going to be the favorite, but there is just too much negative news coming out of East Lansing these days.  Chris Allen's transfer, Kalin Lucas's injury, Korie Lucious's suspension (2 games), Durrell Summers injury, Garrick Sherman's injury, freshman Adreian Payne's injury, allegations of sexual misconduct - it's a lot to deal with.  Not that I would ever doubt Tom Izzo, who just continues to get everything out of his team and continues to routinely make Final Fours.  Not that it's all him, of course.  Don't forget Sparty did make the Final Four last year, only loses Allen and Raymar Morgan, and gains more talent with the #10 recruiting class in the country according to ESPN.  Maybe it's nothing more than me trying to be contrarian because I'm bored with Michigan State's excellence, but despite the talent it seems things may be lining up for a disappointing year.  Which, in East Lansing, means a five seed and a final four run.

3.  Illinois Fighting Illini.  I don't like this team.  I don't like them at all, and I think it's mostly because I don't like Demetri McCamey's style or his stupid face, but you can't deny they have some serious sleeper potential.  I know they missed the tournament last year and eventually lost to Dayton (yuck) in the NIT but they felt like they were just on the verge and they return everybody.  Super annoying point guard who can win or lose a game single-handedly?  Check.  Super tall white dork who prefers the perimeter to the paint?  Check.  Strong as hell power forward who grabs every rebound and makes up for having a bit of a dandy as your center?  Check.  Two super athletic freshmen (now sophomores) and all the inconsistency that comes with it but should be better this year?  Check.  And they're adding three top 100 guys, the worst of whom is ranked #84.  The Illini seem to underachieve each year under Weber since that incredible Dee Brown/Deron Williams team, but this year is probably his most talented squad since then.

4.  Purdue Boilermakers.  Tough to know exactly where to slot the Boilers after the Robbie Hummel injury, but the sneak peek last year sweet 16 run coupled with the fact that JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore still make up one hell of a 1-2 punch lead me to believe that we don't exactly need to be throwing any pity parties.  Don't forget they'll also have their point guard, Lewis Jackson, healthy and for the entire year, and what appears to be no depth looking at stats is really just a byproduct of the Big Three dominating the ball (and rightly so).  In reality, junior Ryne Smith and sophomore D.J. Byrd were Rivals top 150 players coming out of high school, Kelsey Barlow is a great athlete who I think has the potential to become a terrific all-around player, and the Boilers welcome a couple more top 100 guys this year in guards Anthony Johnson and Terone Johnson.  Yeah, losing Hummel hurts their national championship aspirations, and somebody is going to have to become the "tough guy" in the paint, but they're going to be just fine.

5.  Minnesota Gophers.  I'm actually tempted to put the Gophers as high as third, but then I remember that nothing ever goes right for a Minnesota team, my hands start to tremble, and I begin silently - but uncontrollably - weeping (not dissimilar to my reaction every time Al Nolen picks the ball up in the lane with no idea where he's going).This is the most talented Gopher team in years, and that's without any improvement from Rodney Williams. If his offensive game starts to blossom this year I'm scared to think of how good they might actually be. They've got the inside covered, scorers on the perimeter including a bona fide go-to guy, good perimeter shooting, and good defense. If Nolen is smart with the ball and/or learned how to hit a jump shot and Rodney makes that leap it could be time to start talking Sweet 16 - or even beyond.  But, because I don't/can't think positively I'm putting them at fifth - safely in the tourny with something like a six seed. Yes, I'm calling that the "worst case scenario" this year.

6.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Am I underrating Wisconsin for the 50th year in a row?  Yeah, maybe.  But screw that if you think I'm going to give those red dorks any actual credit.  Really though, replacing Jason Bohannon and Trevon Hughes is going to be awfully difficult.  Jordan Taylor is there and he will ease the transition by sliding in for Hughes, but who replaces Bohannon?  And behind Taylor and Leuer (who, by the way, is going to have an absolutely monster year - you watch) who's here?  A bunch of dorky, unproven white dudes with weird names like Jarmusz and Nankivil.  And guess what the recruiting class is made up of?  A bunch of three-star, nondescript white guys including a guy with the first name Duje.  On paper this looks like a crappy team.  Just like every year.  So they'll probably prove me wrong and be in the running for a Big Ten title.  And I'll hate every minute of it.

7.  Northwestern Wildcats.  The Kevin Coble quitting thing definitely takes their overall talent level down, but with John Shurna emerging last year Coble would be kind of redundant anyway since they're so similar, and I don't think that's the key to this team making their first ever tournament, either.  I think that mostly rests in the hands of Michael Thompson.  "Juice", as dorks like to call him, has been a quality point guard for the Wildcats for the past three years, and made a big leap forward last year to become one of the top point guards in the conference.  If he can make a similar leap this year (or if Drew Crawford is ready to be Jordan Crawford) that will be the little extra push this team needs to make the tournament, since it's mostly the same team as last year.  Of course, it also wouldn't hurt to play a little defense, because as frustrating as it can be to watch the Gophers try to figure out that 1-3-1, Northwestern was actually a terrible defensive team last year, ranking above only Iowa in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency rating.  So, I guess, yeah.  They should probably fix that.

8.  Indiana Hoosiers.  I think these guys have a little bit of sleeper potential, assuming Maurice Creek is 100% good to go.  Not so much to make the NCAA Tournament but they could knock off a couple of the conference big boys when they come to Bloomington this year.  Creek is tremendous, and I really like Christian Watford's game.  If those two, along with Jeremiah Rivers and Derek Elston, can improve this year it will make the Hoosiers dangerous, and did you know Verdell Jones scored more than 14 points per game last year?  I seriously had no idea, I guess he can score.  Indiana is on the way back, but Tom Crean brings in a subpar class this year after whiffing on basically every top target they went after.  Keep an eye on what happens with Cody Zeller, the #20 player in the class of 2011 who is from Indiana.  If Crean can keep him home that could signal that Indiana is ready to get back to the upper class of the conference.

9. Penn State Nittany Lions.  Well, this is the last chance for the sublime Talor Battle to make it to the NCAA tournament and I gotta say it doesn't look good since the team will be nearly identical to last year's team that won just 11 total games. To have a good front court in the Big Ten you need to big, experienced, and talented. Penn State's trio of David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and Jeff Brooks are big (average of 6-8 and 220 lbs.), and experienced (all three are seniors).  Two out of three ain't bad - except in this case, where it is. Battle should get some help from incoming freshman point guard Taran Buie, a Rivals top 150 recruit and Battle's half-brother. But even if he's as good as Battle, which he won't be, they're going to need something from the paint, and I don't see where it's going to come from.

10.  Michigan Wolverines.  Beilein certainly had them moving in the right direction, but now after a disappointing year that saw Michigan not play in any postseason tournament Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims are gone, along with the 53% of the teams scoring, 43% of its rebounding, 34% of its assists, 47% of its blocks, and 41% of its steals that those two provided - and the cupboard is pretty bare.  Darius Morris is going to end up being a very good point guard, but beyond him their best player is Zack Novak, and he is the very definition of average.  There's some talent coming in, including Tim Hardaway's kid, Al Horford's brother, and Evan Smotrycz, a 6-8 shooter who plays perfectly for Beilein's system, but not nearly enough to make this team relevant this year.  Somehow, Michigan is going through a rebuilding period for the second time in four years.

11.  Iowa Hawkeyes.  They already had last place locked up, and then word came out that their only good player, Matt Gatens, is out for an indefinite amount of time with a knee injury [ok, so it turns out it's only three weeks].  Honestly, they are going to struggle to win five games this year, and I don't mean in the Big Ten, I mean total.  Looking at their schedule, it's not a cake walk, and I only see four games they'll be favored in (South Dakota St, LA-Monroe, SIU-Edwardsville, and Idaho State) and one other they might be favored in (LA Tech) - that's it.  They'll be underdogs in every other game.  Now, they'll probably manage an upset here or there, but if the Hawks get to 10 total wins this year it would be a miracle.  New coach Fran McCaffery wants to play a more uptempo style so they'll be less boring now and in the future, but this year is going to be brutal.  Think 2010 Gopher football brutal.


Now let's get it on.



Other Previews:
Mountain West 
SEC 
Atlantic 10 
Big East 
Pac 10
ACC
Big 12

Big Ten Wrapup, 11/1/2010

 This is something new I'm kicking around doing instead of the old Weekend Reviews, which I've stopped doing anyway.  In this space each Monday I plan to run down the results of the Big Ten basketball games from the previous week as well as any interesting news, and also take a look at what's happening nationally on the hardwood.  We'll see how it goes.

This week's version will be pretty short since the Illinois Fighting Illini were the only team to open their exhibition slate, taking on Lewis University on Friday night.  They escaped with a win but it wasn't pretty.  The Illini trailed 29-20 at one point and were actually down 37-35 at half before going on an 11-0 run, holding Lewis scoreless for over five minutes, and ending up with the 75-65 victory.  Illinois used their depth (11 players played at least 12 minutes) and strong second half defense for the win, but struggled shooting from the perimeter (1-10 from three) and taking care of the ball (20 turnovers).  Both of those are going to be year-long struggles for Illinois, and I fully expect them to lose at least one game because they weren't able to hit from the outside.  Mark my words.

Of course, for Gopher fans he big news is the signing of Andre Hollins, who, like current Gopher freshman Austin Hollins (no relation) is a combo guard from Memphis.  Confusing.  Next year's version, the newly signed Andre, ranks #126 on the Rivals top 150, and is the #40 shooting guard and chose the Gophers over Stanford, Harvard, Ole Miss, and Auburn.  No, Harvard is not a misprint, as apparently this guy is a total genius, both off the court as well as on, which bodes well for a combo guard who may end up playing a lot of point.  In any case, another great get by Tubby, and after a bit of an off year this class looks to be back in the territory where he started with Hollins joining Joe Coleman, not only the #1 player in Minnesota but the #116 overall.  Would Hollins be in Minnesota if Chasson Randle didn't commit to Stanford?  I don't know, and it doesn't matter.  It's just Awesome.  Capitalized.

So that's pretty much it.  In other news the ESPN coach's poll was released late last week, and as expected the Big Ten is well represented.  Michigan State came in at #2, with Ohio State at #5, Purdue #8, Illinois #16, and Wisconsin #24.  If you go deeper into "others receiving votes", the Gophers show up as #29 and Northwestern received a single point which makes them team #51, and means over half the conference received votes.  It's going to be a hell of a year, and every game is going to be meaningful.  I can't wait.

COMING UP THIS WEEK:

The rest of the Big Ten teams open their exhibition schedules, including Minnesota, Michigan State, and Purdue on Tuesday, Indiana on Wednesday, Northwestern Thursday, Michigan Friday, Wisconsin Saturday, and Iowa, Ohio State, and Penn State on Sunday.   


AROUND THE NATION:

Um, I don't know.  ESPN doesn't exactly report on exhibition games so the info is pretty sparse unless you go to each team/college's official website - something I'm willing to do for the Big Ten but can't exactly pull off for the entire nation.  I mean, no matter how smart I am (and the answer is very, very), I'm still just one man.  Much like Jonathan Moxon.

You can expect my Big Ten preview tomorrow, and then later in the week I'll do a more in depth Gopher preview detailing each player and sort of what I expect/hope for each.

I love college basketball.

And I also love Halloween, especially when it's Wonderbaby's first as a kid old enough to actually trick-or-treat, and it's even better when you do it with Dr. Acula and his kid because then it involves carrying around a 32 oz. travel mug full of White Russian.  Here is a picture for you of Wonderbaby and her haul as well as the whole W family.  I hope you enjoyed your Halloween as much as I did.  Best holiday ever.

Mountain West College Basketball 2010 Preview

1.  San Diego State Aztecs.  I don't want to oversell a Mountain West team, because then I'd end up looking like some kind of jackass who pimps Dayton as a dynasty, but this Aztec team is loaded, and if you're looking for a final four sleeper from a non-BCS conference, look no further.  Kawhi Leonard is a complete stud, a potential NBA draft pick, and is top five amongst returnees in the conference in points, rebounds and steals and top 20 in blocks, assists, and field goal percentage.  Mean amongst boys, you might say, and he has his whole posse coming back with him.  You got his buddies down low in Malcolm Thomas, a double-digit scorer who was top 5 in rebounding, blocks, and FG% last year, and Billy White, another double-digit scorer who led the league in FG percentage at 59%.  And you get your starting back court back in double-figure scorer D.J. Gay (ha ha) and Chase Tapley.  Really the only thing they need is a true point guard (Gay is more of a combo) and a shooter.  Well, they signed a top point guard prospect in LaBradford Franklin, so really all they need is a shooter - if they need anything at all.  In case you can't tell, I'm high on SDSU this year.  Got 'em at 100-1, baby.  We goin' sizzla'.

2.  BYU Cougars.  Jimmer is back, and Jimmer is Jimmer, but he unfortunately loses his boy Tyler Haws to his weird mormon mission, what with the strange underwear and the weird supplementary bible works.  That's not to say Jimmer is on his own, because his third little buddy in the back court, Jackson Emery, is back, as is Noah Hartsock to man the lane.  The losses will hurt (along with Haws the Cougars also lose do-everything forward Jonathan Tavernari and starting center Chris Miles), but there is enough talent surrounding Jimmer that BYU should be dancing again this year, if dancing was allowed by the Mormon religion.  And by the way, Jimmer is totally a Utah/Mormon name.  My wife was raised mormon, and her family is bonkers.  She has cousins who named their kids Londyn, Brooklyn, Okland, Dagon, Presley, Daxton, Lindy, Maximus, and Braden.  I swear to god I'm not kidding.

3.  UNLV Runnin' Rebels.  The Rebels looked like the were going to be in great shape, getting all five starters back from last year's NCAA Tournament team, but then Tre'Von Willis choked some chick (that's frowned upon), Matt Shaw was booted after failing a drug test, and Kendall Wallace tore his ACL and is out for the year.  Ouch.  Luckily (for the team and Willis, not so much for the girl) Willis is only going to miss three games, and he'll be joined by Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield, as well as Derrick Jasper assuming he's back from his own knee injury.  That's enough to be near the top in the MWC but bad luck and dumb choices knock them down from loaded to merely good.

4.  New Mexico Lobos.  Usually when a program like New Mexico loses a couple of guys like Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez from a team that went 30-5 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament you can count on a down period to follow.  Luckily for Lobo fans, Steve Alford has them looking like the kind of team where a letdown still means an NCAA bid.  Stepping in for those two are Drew Gordon, the transfer from UCLA who played well in Westwood before heading to the desert, and Alex Kirk (who the Gophers were looking at at one point) who is the one of only two Rivals Top 150 recruit coming to the MWC (he's #116, the other is BYU's Kyle Collinsworth at #134).   It's not an even trade, of course, because Martinez and Hobson were do-it-all wings while Gordon and Kirk are post players, but it's the kind of influx of talent that will help, along with returning point guard Dairese Gary - particularly if Gordon has his head on straight.  Don't forget, he was a top 50 player as a freshman, and was averaging double-figures in points and 2 blocks per game last year.  He's still got the talent to be a star.

5.  Colorado State Rams.  Tim Miles has done a hell of a job, Travis Busch signing notwithstanding (and by the way, I heard he likes to hang out by himself in bars near the campus on Saturday mornings - true story), and he has the Rams solidly turned around from "shitbox" to "mediocre."  I don't know that they can turn the corner just yet, but there is some talent here.  Andy Ogide returns to man the paint for the Rams and he was top five in the league in both rebounding and field goal percentage, and Dorian Green had a very nice freshman season at point for CSU last year, averaging 12 points and 3 assists per game.  And don't forget this is where one-time Gopher PF target Chad Calcaterra landed.  He'll have a chance to contribute right away, but this team isn't quite ready to compete for an NCAA berth yet.  If only they had Travis Busch for one more year, that kind of hustle cures all ills.    

6.  Wyoming Cowboys.  The success (it's a relative term) of the Cowboys' season this year pretty much rests on the health of Afam Mujoeke's knee.  Two seasons ago Mujoeke won the MWC Freshman of the Year award, and then last year he was having a fine season averaging 17 points per game before he blew out his patella tendon, which sounds pretty terrible.  If he's back at full strength he'll join sophomore Desmar Jackson to give the Cowboys a nice one-two scoring punch, and make them viable enough that they will at least threaten to upset a team or two.  If he's not all the way back, it's going to be a long year in Laramie.  Or longer, at least.  I mean, I assume it's always a long year in Wyoming, what with all the long hours baling hay and milking cows before class and what not.

7.  Utah Utes.  This will be the last season for the Utes in the Mountain West, and it's probably about time to leave before they tarnish their legacy, because after being the dominant force in the conference since it's inception in 1999, winning five of the first seven league titles, they've fallen off, finishing better than 5th just once in the last five seasons and gaining just one NCAA berth.  That probably won't get much better this year.  Both of last year's two leading scorers are transferring (Carlon Brown to Colorado, Marshall Henderson to Texas Tech), and a host of bench fodder is leaving as well (missions and what have you) and the Utes will have a whole slew of new faces.  If some of those new guys turn out to be good guards Utah could finish higher than this because they do have a lot of size in 7-3 David Foster and 7-0 Jason Washburn, both of whom finished in the top five in blocked shots in the MWC with Foster finishing fourth nationally.  So they're big.  And probably slow since I assume the whole team is white.

8.  TCU Horned Frogs.  Well if we want to start with something nice, let's talk about TCU's back court because it's actually quite solid.  Ronnie Moss is an excellent all-around player who led the team in scoring (14.9 per game) and assists (5.9 per game, good for 1st in the conference and 9th nationally) and also chipped in with more than 3 rebounds and almost a steal per game.  He's not exactly a wizard with the jump shot (just 40% shooting last year) and he turns it over way too much (3.8 per game) but still - he's a heck of a player.  Joining him in the back court this year will be Hank Thorns, a transfer from Virginia Tech who had some limited success in his two years as a Hokie, hampered only by the fact that he can't shoot (30% from the field as a sophomore).  And speaking of can't shoot the third guard and second leading returning scorer, Greg Hill, shot just 41% last year, which actually makes him the marksman of the group.  So the guards are good but they can't shoot.  Now let me tell you all the good things about their front court players:  at least they aren't Air Force. 

9.  Air Force Falcons.  Remember when Air Force was kind of good for a minute there, using that slower-than-a-Vickers-Gunbus-offense?  They actually made the tournament in 2004 and 2006, but things have fallen off faster than Maverick after Goose died, and the Falcons have won just won conference game combined the last two seasons - lost that lovin' feeling indeed.  I'd love to sit here and make Top Gun/Fighter Jet jokes for another few sentences, but researching the Falcons makes me feel like Cougar after getting missile locked, and there's no Viper to be my wingman.  Great Balls of Fire!!

SEC College Basketball 2010 Preview

There are good looking women in the SEC.

SEC EAST

1.  Florida Gators.  I'm not a huge fan of their guards, because I think both Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton can get a little too out of control and both have a tendency to shoot shots that they shan't be shooting, but there is not denying their talent and the Gators have a stellar front court.  Chandler Parsons is a Mike Miller clone sans the bad hair and with a slightly worse jump shot (and he single-handedly won me my fantasy college hoops league last year) and Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin are very good as long as you don't count free throws.  In a down year for the SEC, the Gators are clearly the class of either division.

2.  Kentucky Wildcats.  In what I'm going to assume is about to become a tradition until Calipari is arrested for money laundering, Kentucky lost an assload of good players to the NBA but is reloading with an assload of talent.  It's almost a perfect job of recruiting, actually, because these guys are not only talented but cover all five positions:  You have PG Brandon Knight (Rivals #6 overall), SG Doron Lamb (#21), SF Stacey Poole (#33), PF Terrence Jones (#13), and C Enes Kanter (#3 overall).  Of course, the biggest question is if Kanter will end up eligible, because they aren't particularly strong on the interior without him, but this year will be plenty athletic and is near-perfectly built for the dribble-drive offense Calipari loves.  I'd consider this #2 prediction their downside.  Well, the actual downside was it turns out Cal has been cheating (NO WAY) and they kick everybody off the team or something.  That would probably be worse.

3.  Georgia Bulldogs.  Georgia may very well be on their way back to relevance, believe it or not.  Travis Leslie is an absolute stud, and what Rodney Williams should aspire to become, and they have the league's leading returning scorer and rebounder in power forward Trey Thompkins.  These guys should be two of the best players in the conference, but what makes this team really interesting are a couple of newcomers:  freshman forward Marcus Thornton and point guard transfer from Tennessee State Gerald Robinson.  Thornton could be a great one, with both size and athleticism, and Robinson is the kind of scoring point guard (averaged 15 and 18 points per game in his two years at TSU) who can end up making or breaking a team.  I consider these guys a solid sleeper this year.

4.  Tennessee Volunteers.  I don't exactly know how Bruce Pearl being a huge cheater is going to affect this team, but they're a bit of an enigma already so this doesn't help with the rubix cube here.  I've seen them ranked anywhere from 2nd to 4th in various previews, and with three major contributors and starters gone (four if you want to count Tyler Smith) the second place predictions seems awfully optimistic to me.  I guess it really depends on how good you think freshman point guard Tobias Harris can be (Rivals #7), and how much of an improvement Cameron Tatum and/or Scottie Hopson can make.  I think those three will be pretty studly, but they're all perimeter guys and the Vols are going to be weak on the interior.  Plus I wouldn't surprised if Pearl is dismissed/suspended/whatever and this whole thing collapses.

5.  Vanderbilt Commodores.  If Northwestern is the nerds of midwest, and Stanford is the nerds of the west coast, then Vanderbilt is the nerds of the southeast.  And for nerds, they've had a pretty good run of success lately, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years with a sweet16 appearance thrown in.  This looking like it's going to be a down year, however, with two double-digit scorers (center A.J. Ogilvy and point guard Jermaine Beal) lost to graduation, but they've built the kind of program at this point where they'll be back soon enough.  Sophomore Jeffery Taylor is one of the most athletically gifted players in the conference and should blossom with an increased role on offense, and classmate John Jenkins is a three-point marksman who hit nearly 50% of his threes last year on his way to averaging double-digit points per game.  And they're probably all really smart, too.  NERDS!!!

6.  South Carolina Gamecocks.  Remember Devan Downey? He and his 22 points per game have graduated.  Along with Dominique Archie (who only played five games last year due to injury) and his 14.4 ppg, Mike Holmes (who only played in seven before being kicked off the team) and his 9.4, and Brandin Raley-Ross and his 10.6.  So yes, they're losing a lot.  They still have a decent enough inside/outside combo in Ramon Galloway and Sam Muldrow, but let's just say if they were an NBA Jam combo they'd never get picked outside of South Carolina.  Coach Darrin Horn loves to play an uptempo style, but with just Galloway and Lakeem Jackson back with significant back court experience, he'll be relying on newcomers and although it's a good class, that's not generally a sign of success.  This isn't Kentucky.


SEC WEST

1.  Mississippi State Bulldogs.  It sucks that Jarvis Varnado graduated, because that guy was as fun to watch as anybody so pardon me if I'm weeping like a fat girl at a prom with no cake while I type this, but the Bulldogs have enough coming back to win their division and make the tournament, mostly because the defied the odds and went 2-0 against the NCAA fascists this offseason.  Dee Bost, last year's #3 scorer at 13.2 ppg, declared for the NBA draft, then pulled his name out after the deadline, and instead of following it's own rules they are letting him back to play another year after sitting out the first handful of games.  He'll be joined on the suspended bench to start the year by PF Renardo Sidney, last year's #16 ranked freshman by Rivals who sat out of all of last season during an NCAA investigation into something or other, but he'll be playing after a nine game timeout.  Add these two to Ravern Johnson, their leading returning scorer, and Miss State should be dancing this year.  With a big thanks to the NCAA for actually being reasonable, not exactly their strong suit.  It's probably in recognition of how much it sucks to lose Varnado.

2.  Mississippi Rebels.  Chris Warren is back, again (he's apparently under the Jess Settles plan), but he loses his two back court buddies (Eniel Polynice and Terrico White) who combined to give the Rebels one of the best three-man back courts in the country amongst teams who didn't make the NCAA tournament last year.  He won't be alone back there, however, because Ole Miss will welcome one of the best names in the country to the program in point guard Dundrecous Nelson (#89 Rivals), as well as Nick Williams, a transfer from Indiana who averaged nearly double-digit points in his year with the Hoosiers.  If the Rebs can get some help in the front court they could finally bust through the bubble and make their first NCAA Tournament since 2002.  Gotta be sick of being predicted to be a tournament team only to end up in the NIT, no?

3.  Arkansas Razorbacks.  Mike Pelphrey continues to grab good recruiting classes, but at the same time there seems to be sort of an undercurrent that things might not be all rosy, or maybe that's just the Courtney  Fortson affect.  And speaking of Fortson, I think I'm pretty glad he never ended up a Gopher, because it seems he may have been just as good at killing his team as he was at helping it.  In any case, Pelphrey has this program humming like a good ole fashioned jug band drinkin' moonshine while prepping for a coon hunt.  And if that sounded racist against southerners, it probably was.  I've been to Arkansas.

4.  Alabama Crimson Tide.  Mikhail Torrance was an absolute stud for the Tide last year.  Unfortunately, he's gone.  Fortunately, however, they still JaMychal Green, who is a beast on the block, and swingman Tony Mitchell, who had a very good freshman year and should only get better.  They also have a hell of a freshman point guard coming in with Trevor Releford, who may be the most important cog.  According to something I read, Tide coach Anthony Grant wants to run an uptempo offense, but didn't have the point guard to do it and went slow down instead (their tempo ranked #247 last year), and the hope is that Releford is the guy who can be turned loose.  It might work, and there's talent here, I just don't think it's enough, even in the SEC West.

5.  LSU Tigers.  Every year I keep waiting for LSU to get back to relevance, but every year it seems they're still stuck down at the bottom of the division - and this year won't change that.  Storm Warren is a solid guard, but the other stand-out returner, forward Bo Spencer, peaced out from the program after being declared academically ineligible (at LSU?  LOL).  With that they are very young and I'm not even sure they know what all they have since Warren is the only returning player who averaged more than 4.6 points per game last year.  There is some talent, with SG Aaron Dotson a Rivals top 150 player last year and a good class this year with three more Rivals top 150 types, so they might be on their way back to relevance, just not yet.

6.  Auburn Tigers.  Things were already going to be tough with four starters graduating (including your top three scorers), but the news got worse when Frankie Sullivan, the lone returning starter, ended up needed ACL surgery that will likely keep him out all year and the Tigers' two top recruits, Luke Cothron (Rivals #45) and Shawn Kemp, Jr. (#105) were both ruled academically eligible for the year (Cothron has since fled to UMass).  This leaves Auburn with Earnest Ross as their top returnee, a sophomore guard who averaged 2.8 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes per game last year.  In other words it's going to be a long year.  At least it will be warm.

Atlantic 10 College Basketball 2010 Preview

1.  Xavier Musketeers.  Take note, Dayton dorks, because this is what you call a dynasty.  I remember last year, I think I picked the Musketeers fourth in the A-10 because of who was graduating, and they went ahead and won the conference, again, and made a nice run in the tournament, again.  This year, they once again look like they might be down with Jordan Crawford off to the NBA, but Terrell Holloway is back and I love that little guy.  His development from out of control spaz as a freshman (think Kevin Clark, any year) to stone cold killer has been fun to see, and now in his junior year this is clearly his team and I can't wait to see if he'll be better than Jake Pullen, or merely as good.  With two other starters back, Mark Lyons and a slimmed down Kenny Frease ready to step in and start, and top25-type recruiting class coming in it wouldn't be a shock at all to see them in the sweet 16 for the fourth straight year.

2.  Temple Owls.  On paper this team is probably better than Xavier, but I learned my lesson last year about doubting the Musketeers.  That said, Temple should easily hit their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, and they are certainly back to a perenially good program now under Fran Dunphy.   The Owls lose leading scorer Ryan Brooks, but have enough pieces in place that it shouldn't hurt them.  Juan Fernandez is an oustanding point guard who I really want to compare to Pepe Sanchez, but that's lazy since they're both hispanic so instead I'll say he reminds me a lot of Greivis Vasquez.  With Lavoy Allen also back to dominate the inside, and last year's A-10 sixth man of the year Ramone Moore ready to slide in for Brooks, they're in great shape.

3.  Richmond Spiders.  Of all the graduating players in the conference, nobody is going to miss their guy more than the Spiders will miss David Gonzalvez.  They still have point guard and A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson back, but he and Gonzalvez formed a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo, averaging 32.4 points between the two of them - 46% of the team's scoring - and were the top two assist and steal guys to boot.  Beyond finding someone to fill in for Gonzalvez, the big key for the season is the continued improvement of PF Justin Harper, who is suddenly getting "potential NBA pick" buzz, as well as if Dan Geriot can get back to close to what he was before he hurt his knee.  He was a double-digit scorer and a beast inside before the injury, but averaged less the 7 points per game last year.  If he is recoverd in year 2 post-surgery, this team goes from a good team to a great team.

4.  St. Louis Billikens.  Majerus's team was one of the youngest in the country last year, but came together and closed strong, finishing 11-5 in the A-10 and denied an NCAA berth due to a very weak non-conference schedule.   This year the schedule has been upgraded along with the expectations, because with their top six scorers back - all of whom were unerclassmen last year - they are in position to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000.  Kwamain Mitchell (16 points, 3 rebs, 3 assists per game), Willie Reed (12 pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks), and Cody Ellis (11 pts, 5 rebs) are a dynamic trio, and the Billikens were one of the toughest defensive teams in the country last year.  Pay attention to their game November 20th vs. Georgia - the result of that one will help give a gauge on how "for real" this team is.  [NOTE:  I have since been informed that Mitchell and Reed have been suspended due to some chick framing them for some kind of sex allegation.  This obviously means that they're screwed.]   

5.  Dayton Flyers.  I've talked about this on here before, but is there a more overrated program than the Flyers?  They continually get praised as if they've accomplished something, but they've only made one NCAA Tournament in the last six years, and they continually underachieve.  Once again this year they'll be built around an overrated power forward who can't stay healthy and a bunch of guards with gigantic question marks surrounded them .  Either way I still have a special place in my heart for Dayton fans, who are almost identical to Packer fans.  They have the same mix of delusion, overconfidence, and entitlement, mixed with a dash of overconfidence and a sprinkle of questionable personal hygiene and mental problems.

6.  Charlotte 49ers.  Interesting team here.  They were cruising towards an NCAA berth last year at 18-5 and 8-1 in conference play before a 1-7 close to the season,  including losses to G. Washington and UMass, left them out of postseason play altogether.  Last year's point guard (Dijuan Harris) is gone and there's some concern about if anybody on the roster can replac ehim, but they return most of last year's team, including the dynamic inside duo of Shamari Spears (16 ppg/6 rpg last year) and Chris Braswell (10 and 9).  New coach Alan Major has a reputation for getting the most out of post players, so this sounds like a good combo to me.  Not like those pizzeria pretzel combos.  Seriously, who thought that one up?  Gross.

7.  Rhode Island Rams.  The Rams might not make the NCAA  Tournament all that often, but they are always a tough, tough, tough matchup, and there's no reason for that not to be the case again this year.  They lose two double-digit scorers from last year's team, but that doesn't mean they aren't still in good shape.  The three returning starters are all good players and give you an excellent balance of a ball-handler (Marquis Jones - 4.1 assists per game, third in A-10), an athletic wing (Delroy James - 13.2ppg, and second on team in 3-pointers despite being 6-8), and a big man in seven-footer Will Martell (8pts, 5 rebs).  Martell needs to improve because his rebounds and blocks are low for a seven-footer and he's the man down low this year.     

 
8.  Duquesne Dukes.  The Dukes return one of the best players you've never heard of in Damian Saunders, a double-double machine who doesn't mind blocking your shot right back in your stupid face if you were dumb enough to bring it to his house.  With four other big-time contributors back, including #2 leading scorer in guard Bill Clark and point guard Eric Evans, this will probably be the best Duquesne team in 30 years, not that it's exactly a huge feat, but you gotta start somewhere.  The Dukes made the NIT two years ago but dropped back into the CBI last season - their first back-to-back postseasons since 1980-1981.  Time to take that next step, boy-os.  Do it for Mike James.

10.  UMass Minutemen.  Leading scorer Ricky Harris is gone and UMass won just twelve games last year, but there is some reason to be optimistic based on what's coming back.   Anthony Gurley, Terrell Vinson, and Freddie Riley are all good all-around wing types who averaged over or close to double-digits in scoring last year and all showed at different times that they are capable of taking over a game against a quality opponent - they just all have to bring that A game at the same time.  If they can find some consistent point guard play (overall UMass had more turnovers than assists) they could finish higher than this.  You could almost call them a sleeper, except they aren't quite good enough.

10.  George Washington Colonials.  GW has ten of last year's twelve contributors back, but one of the guys who is missing is last seasons leading scorer, Damian Hollis, and they weren't exactly world beaters last year, going just 16-13 (6-10 in A10), and it was an empty 16 wins without a single good victory in there anywhere that I could find.  So how do you rate experience coming back, but save a couple of guys, subpar talent?  10th, apparently.

11.  LaSalle Explorers.  If you ever want proof that I'm an idiot, you can look at my picking this team to be one of the top teams in the A-10 last year - probably my biggest whiff ever.  Rodney Green was a superstar and Aaric Murray was a top recruit and I thought they'd surprise.  Well, they did.  They surprised the hell out of me by being a bunch of worthless sucks who sucked.  Now Green is gone, Murray is overrated, and I'll never trust these guys again.  At least until Lionel Simmons II comes to town.

12.  St. Joseph's Hawks.  I don't believe it would be possible to pick a worse time to have a home-and-home with the Hawks, because they were brutal last year and this year ain't fixin' to get much better.  Remember these guys last year?  The team the Gophers beat 97-74 and won just five conference games?  Well, it's basically the same team as last year, except their two best players graduated.  Actually, there is reason for optimism and a good reason to look forward to watching them play, and that's freshman center C.J. Aiken, who was ranked by Rivals as the #8 center who should play immediately.  They also added a couple other solidly ranked, athletic freshman to give them one of the better classes in the conference, that just won't make much of a difference this year.

13.  St. Bonaventure Bonnies.  The good news is that stud big man Andrew Nicholson is back, and last year as a sophomore he was good enough to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field.  Pretty awesome.  The bad news is that Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews (no relation to Eric and Cory) graduated and took over 25% of the team's scoring with them (nearly 50% of the non-Nicholson points) and starting point guard Malcolm Eleby is gone after getting into a fight on-campus.  Why that couldn't have happened to Lawrence Westbrook I'll never know.

14.  Fordham Rams.  This is familiar.  Two years ago Fordham was terrible, but Jio Fontan had a huge year and was the only bright spot.  Then he transferred.  Last year, the Rams were again terrible, but Chris Gaston was a monster, notching 19 double-doubles, and going 30 & 10 three times.  No, he hasn't transferred, but Fordham promises to be awful once again, so he'd have every right to in my book.  Loyalty is admirable, but who wants to play for at team that's won five games the last two season combined.  Yes, combined.  And I mean five total wins, not five conference wins.  It ain't easy being one of the worst offensive and worst defensive teams in the country, Fordham just makes it look easy.


Other Previews:

Other Previews:
Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big East College Basketball 2010 Preview