Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Hello my Friends - Again (also with Sweet 16 picks)

Hello. I'd love to lie to you and tell you I'm not drunk right now, but that would be lying. And don't you, constant reader, deserve better? I think you do. So you deserve to know that I'm drunk to quite drunk right now. Please pay zero attention to what may follow.

- If it seems like the spelling here is good to quite good, thank firefox and their built in spellcheck. Also, if you're not using firefox, you're not really living.

- My new favorite "guy" at the hotel bar was the guy who I heard saying to someone on the phone, "I can't wait for that Spartans game. Yeah, I'm so amped up. They play at nine. No, I don't know who they're playing." I swear to god that's verbatim.

- Have you ever heard of Gaby Sanchez, 1b, florida? I hadn't really either, but then I did some digging and this guy could be huge. He was stuck behind Mike Jacobs last year. You can say who all you want, but Jacobs hit 32 homers for the Marlins last year. The rest of his stats were pretty underwhelming, but still, it's tough to take a guy like that out of the lineup. Well, Sanchez could be a real stud this year. Last year at AA he hit .314/.404/.513 with 17 homers and 17 steals, following up a year at A+ ball where he hit .279/.369/.433 with 9 homers and six steals. Not overwhelming numbers, but solid, and for a kid who is just 24 a 1-1 walk to strikeout ratio with some power is very impressive. Remember the name. Also I just picked him in the 25th round of a fantasy draft, and I have no idea if he's starting the year in the majors or not. Remember him anyway.

- Speaking of baseball stats, I had an interesting discussion on them with Dawg and Snake in Chicago last weekend. They were under the impression that OPS+, the jesus of statistics, was subjective in someway. They thought the fact that it takes ballpark into account was some guys guess of how many more runs and what not were scored in a given park.

I'm not here to scorn those dipshits, I'm here to educate. No, there is no subjectivity to OPS+. It is simply taking a players SLG + OPB, and comparing to the league average - where the league average is adjusted not only for the "average" of the league, but also for what players do in certain parks, based on that parks comparison to a league average. Is it perfect? Of course not, there are all kinds of variables you can't account for, but it's so much better than using batting average, which brings in all kinds of luck - which OPS minimizes as much as possible.

There is no subjectivity, and there is less randomness than batting average. Please, I beg of you, read up on it. Learn what it really means. And also stop being so stupid and thinking that batting average is superior as an evaluator to on base percentage, when one fluctuates so much from year to year based on luck and the other is fairly consistent. Please. Please, Dawger, please. Bear - back me up here.

- Patrick Mills is very good at basketball.

= Speaking of baseball, I'm sure nobody watch the final of the World Baseball Classic (or any of the games, actually) but stupid Japan won for a stupid second straight time. Their closer, whose name I'm too lazy to look up but I will assume it's something like Chiang Kai-Shek, looked really, really good. I'm fully expecting to see Kai-Shek over in the US in a year or two - but definitely not on the Twins, that would cost money.

- Today's post is brought to you by Bridget Regan:


- And also whoever this girl is:

Who, it would seem, hearts baseball.

- If you're wondering what happened to Luis Flores, the basketball jesus, formerly of the college of Manhattan, he is currently dominating and is an absolute Arriel McDonald of the Israel league, which I think is where McDonald was before anyway so I guess he's the next Arriel Mcdonald. Yeah, that's right. 18 points per game while his team wins the championship? MVP baby, MVP.

- I was going to write about something else, but since I went down to get more beer now I can't remember, and Snacks texted me that I should preview the sweet 16 games. It seems appropriate, since they start tomorrrow, I think, so here you go.

- Louisville vs. Arizona. Wow, really. This is a game? This is going to be a slaughter. I've clearly underestimated Zona in their first two games, but that's because they actually suck. Yet, they still managed to beat Utah and Cleveland State. What do those two teams have in common? Not athletic. You know who is athletic? Yep, the ville. This one is going to be a slaughter. Need more? I'm sure you do, queer. Well how about the Ville ranking #2 in defensive efficiency while Arizona is #119. Yeah, that aught to do it. Louisville 83, Arizona 65.

- Kansas vs. Michigan State. You know who I want to win? Michigan State. Because they're in the big ten and also because I'm pretty sure Cole Aldrich likes the cock. I can't prove it, but I'm suspect. Look, Kansas is basically a two man team with your guy Aldrich and Sherron Collins. They have plenty of nice complementary guys (Taylor is actually looking pretty good) but don't you think Kalin Lucas and/or Travis Walton - the worst shooter since Jacque Vaughn - can keep him in check? And the eighty hundred big guys MSU trots out can handle Aldrich? Michigan State 71, Kansas 68.

- UCONN vs. Purdue. On one hand, I really like Purdue these days. Since Hummel came back, they've playing some great ball. Also JaJuan Johnson (the college KG) is probably the best player in college ball. On the other hand, UCONN is really very, very good at the hoops. AJ Price may be playing the best ball of anybody right now. And how do the Boilers deal with Thabeet? Conventional wisdom says KG can't handle him, but I'm a believer. KG dominates Thabeet, somehow the Boiler guards slow down Price. My head says UCONN, but my heart says Purdue. Boilers 70, UCONN 66.

- Memphis vs. Missouri. I cannot wait to watch this game. Even though this year Memphis actually plays a pretty average paced game, can you really see them sticking too it against an uptempo team like Mizzou? I can't. And let's not pretend Calipari is a real good game coach here. The dude is great at recruiting, skirting the rules, and managing egos (except apparently in the NBA) but his game skills are lacking. Add in the fact that the Memphis point guard is a freshman, and this is going to turn into a track meet, which favors Mizzou. Missouri 88, Memphis 80.

- Pitt vs. Xavier. The Mustketeers are the kind of team who has been in this position before, and always seems to exceed expectations. Pitt is the kind of team that chokes every year. Plus, I heard from a very reliable, confidential source that LaVance Fields was caught making out with Carl Krauser last night, and the team is in turmoil. Plus, DeJuan Blair got caught taking roids. Xavier 72, Pitt 66.

- Villanova vs. Duke. Pardon my french, but this game is gays central. I'm assuming I don't have to tell you how gay Duke is as a program, but if you're one of those weirdos who likes them and consistently mispronounces Laettner I can't help you. Villanova is gay because in all honesty Scottie Reynolds might be the worst college basketball player who people love not named Curry. Also if you think curry could be good in the pros you should probably go to the gas station and buy a lighter and light yourself on fire. Watching nova against UCLA, they just shredded them. How much of that was Nova people not named Reynolds since he sucked all game, and how much was the soft Pac-10? You know who else is soft? Again? Duke. Kyle Singler is their only good "post" player and he's more of a Rickert. This is more a Big East vs. soft defense pick than anything else. Villanova 83, Duke 72.

- North Carolina vs. Gonzaga. I bet you love UNC. I'd bet anything you do. Everybody does. Plus they have that whole stupid story about Lawson going for them. Wrong again Liberal media. Guess who was the team you wanted to make out with for about ten years and always disappointed but lost twenty pounds and got a boob job (to steal a Simmons bit)? Zags baby. Inside, outside, offense, defense, this team haas got it all. I beg of you to pay atttention to Austin Daye. Gonzaga 90, UNC 71.

- Syracuse vs. Oklahoma. Toughest game to pick. You know the Sooners will toss it in to Griffin all day long, and although the Cuse are deep, the have no one single individual who can handle Griffin. Good news - Jimmy Boeheim is a hell of a coach and will find a way. Syracuse 90, Oklahoma 86.

So that will do it. I'm sure I had a lot more to say but damn beer. I will leave you with the latest picture of wonderbaby, since I am pretty sure that's the only reason you show up here anyway. I asked her to pose for DWG, and I'm pretty sure this look says, "Holy crap, you are all idiots."


Pretty accurate, no?

6 comments:

Dawg said...

WWWW - Of course when we put you on the spot in Chicago and asked you to breakdown OPS+ you froze like a kid who just got busted wacking it by his parents. You needed to rush back to a computer screen and then tell us all about OPS+. Fraud! If you can't tell us exactly what a stat measures or how to calculate it on the spot then you shouldn't be using it.

PS The chick in the baseball outfit is sickening. You must've sporting beer googles last night when you were surfing the net for porn.

snacks said...

Please explain the second half of this statement:

And also stop being so stupid and thinking that batting average is superior as an evaluator to on base percentage, when one fluctuates so much from year to year based on luck and the other is fairly consistent

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't on base percentage basically the same thing as batting average except it includes walks and errors. So, if ba fluctuates so much based on luck how does obp stay consistent? Wouldn't it, by definition, also have to fluctuate as batting average does? Are you trying to tell me that whenever a player is getting more lucky hits he is taking less walks?

I didn't take the time to think about the rest of your argument about OBP+, but you lost all credibility with the above statement.

mama D said...

I think wonderbaby is right.....you are all idiots.

sam said...

ok

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