Gophers' Kick-Off The Season

I was considering making this a live blog of the Gopher/UNLV tilt, but there area few issues with that:

1.  I don't care enough about the Gopher football team to write about it exclusively, even in one post.  Honestly off the top of my head right now I can name exactly one player, MarQueis Gray, and that's probably only because his name is so sweet.  It's not that I never watch the team.  I probably go to 2-3 games a year at TCF Bank and watch a handful more on the tv.  It's not appointment viewing like the hoops team, but if I'm home and they're playing I'm watching.  The problem is that every time I watch a game I immediately forget every player whose name I learned.  Plus the Gophers are always so shitty that nobody is ever good enough to notice until they get to their senior year, and then they're gone.  So it's really not my fault.

2.  The game starts way to late for an old man who doesn't care.  I don't want to start a live blog and then end up bailing at halftime because I passed out fell asleep. 

Instead, I will watch the game and may write a thing or maybe two things or maybe more.  I don't know.  What am I, Kreskin?

Naturally, to make the game interesting I am involved in some wagering.  I have the Gophers -2.5 as the third leg of a three-team, six-point teaser with Vandy already having hit (need BYU to win by 5.5 or more as well to win this), OVER 52 total points, OVER 25.5 total points first half, Gray OVER 11 completions, and whoever UNLV's boner running back is over 69.5 rush yds.  Should be a hoot.  As Jack Napier once asked, "You ever dance with the devil in the pale moonlight?"

-  Great, it's 10:02 and I still haven't found the game because it's on some weird channel.  I assumed I'd be able to handle this.

-  BOOM!  I'm there and I didn't miss a minute of action.  Although I'm guessing that's not necessarily a positive thing.

-  Troy Stoudermire is still on this team?  This has gotta be like, year 7.  He's stuck around college longer than older brothers Damon and Salim combined at this point.

-  UNLV just picked off Gray in the redzone on a batted ball that was only batted because Gray threw the ball so directly to a linebacker on the Rebels that he was too stunned to actually catch it.  And this on the same drive where Gray missed a wide open guy for a TD a few plays after missing a wide open guy for a first down.  Gonna be a long year.

-  Seriously remember how like, when Glen Mason was here he'd get your hopes built up that maybe this Gopher team was different before ripping your heart out midseason in some gruesome, Mola Ram style?  It's nice to not have to deal with that anymore.

-  Good thing the Rebels are terrible.  Field Goal.

-  Official Gopher basketball schedule was released today and there's really no way to sugarcoat this - it's freaking awful.  Gopher Nation spent more time on it here than I'm going to, but basically even though the overall non-conference schedule is good (Duke and likely two other quality teams in the Battle for Atlantis and a trip to Florida State) but the home slate is awful.  Check it:

• American - a powerhouse in the Patriot, but likely staring at a down year.  Terrible.
• Toledo - terrible
• Tennessee State - a top tier team from a bottom tier conference.  Not an NCAA Team, but sadly probably the second best home opponent.
• Richmond - a mid tier team from a mid tier conference.  And that's strong praise for this slate.
• North Florida - terrible
• South Dakota State - best home NC opponent by a significant margin, yet still the kind of team that has to win their conference tournament to make the NCAA tourny
• North Dakota State - terrible
• Lafayette - terrible

Oof.   Gopher Nation (at the link above) does a nice job of spinning seven of the eight games (you can't spin the Lafayette game) and if you're optimistic you can actually make an argument for Toldeo and NDSU being better than terrible, but really this is awful.  The U is basically stealing money from season ticket holders with this crap.  Richmond, in a down year, should not be a highlight of the home NC schedule for your fans.  Gross.

-  Wow this is absolutely terrible.  The Gophers have punted like twice or something and UNLV can't really do anything.  Pretty sure the Vikings are going to win more games.

-  Jesus this is just like watching a Twins/Royals game.

-  Gray with three completions in the first quarter, which is technically on pace to cover my "OVER 11 Completions" bet.  Not on pace?  The over 25.5 first half and over 52 game.  It's 3-0.  And I think it's actually been worse than that so far.  No chance I'm getting to a second half.

-  Is there anything better than a d-back picking up a clearly incomplete pass and starting to run it back as if it was a fumble?  No.  There's not.

-  If Gray and this UNLV QB guy had a contest where the balls were actually rigged so if they hit a live person they'd explode and you had to stand there and let them throw at you from 10 yards away you'd die of old age.  Or boredom.

-  Do you want to know what sucks about the Twins' training staff's complete inability to diagnosis, recognize, or treat any kind of injury?  Besides of course making it take longer from injury date to return date on guys like Kyle Gibson?  If Matt Capps and/or Carl Pavano were healthy these last 9 months or whatever and actually pitching the Twins could get value out of them.  If they held on to them all year and they were at least not totally putrid they could do that thing where you offer arbitration, then when they signed multi-year deals elsewhere the Twins would get draft picks or, to be safer because god knows you don't want Capps to sign anything to stay on your team, just trade them.  Assuming Pavano was doing his usual 200 innings, 4.50 ERA thing you know somebody'd give up something for him.  And Capps?  Even though he sucks he could be great Dodger bait right now.

The Dodgers' closer, Kenley Jansen, was just shut down indefinitely because of a heart condition.  This is a team so desperate to win and win now they took on a shitload of possibly dead money just to acquire a slugging first baseman (and a disgruntled pitcher) and gave up a couple quality pitching prospects for the privilege.  You're telling me at this point they're not panicking?  That they wouldn't overpay to get a "known closer" with 150 career saves (which he'd have if he pitched all year) and who had 42 just two seasons ago?  I mean, yeah he sucks, but teams are idiots about the save statistic, and team's who are panicking are even dumber.  Then add in their desperation to win and keep relevant compared to the Angels, the billions they falling out of their asses, and "shiny new toy" syndrome the new owners are falling prey too and you know the Twins could fleece them.  Well, I should say a normal team could fleece them, the Twins would probably end up trading Kyle Gibson along with Capps to get a slap hitting middle infielder.  Because lord knows they don't have enough of those.

-   Gopher TD!!!  I have no idea what happened.

-  These pictures of Vegas make me want to go gamble and play craps at the Tropicana.  Seriously, Tropicana is the second best craps run of my life.  First would be the San Remo, which is now Hooters, which is probably the most depressing thing ever.  That place blows now.

-  I know you can win in college ball with a QB who doesn't throw very well but who can run like a mo-fo, I know this.  But I really don't like it.  I want a QB who can sling that pill like Mox.  Is that so much to ask?

-  Gophers miss a 10 yard field goal with a minute to play in the half.  I'm going to bed.  All my bets suck.  The Gophers suck again.  This is all highly annoying.

-  And for the record no, I have not danced with the devil in the pale moonlight, but it sounds sexy.

How to rebuild the Twins

 Although the Twins are pretty much hamstrung and stuck with Joe Mauer for the foreseeable future, that doesn't mean there aren't some moves they could make to try to rebuild quickly - which they'll have to do in order to become contenders again before Mauer is completely out of his prime assuming he isn't already.  Obviously the #1 priority should be the draft, where the Twins have the 2nd overall pick and three picks in the top 40.  I'd like to see them concentrate on high upside, college pitchers who won't have to spend 4-5 years in the minors, and I'd specifically like to see them draft Mark Appel out of Stanford or Kevin Gausman out of LSU with that #2 overall, then look at more pitching with picks 32 and 42.  Pitching-Pitching-Pitching.

Beyond that, there are some trades that need to be made.  Namely:


1.  Justin Morneau.  Contenders like the Marlins (who just sent Gaby Sanchez to the minors), Dodgers (who have crappy no power James Loney), Rangers (great offense with wasteland at 1B) and Blue Jays (who have given up on Adam Lind) all could use the power Morneau would provide at first base and all have the money to handle his contract, if they aren't too wary of his health issues.  Health issues and the big contract might mean his selling price is down, but a package of 3-4 players centered around one high upside prospect at a position of need would be a good move.  The Marlins have 3B Matt Dominguez in AAA and although he's not a great hitter he's supposed to be a plus fielder and let's face it, the Twins are pretty much out of 3B options.  The Rangers are loaded, including the minors, and that might make them willing to move future stud starting pitcher Martin Perez, who would give the Twins their first ace type pitcher since Johan.  The Dodgers system is loaded with starting pitching (with 8 of their top 10 prospects starters), and the Jays have enough young pitching that they could part with a semi-highly regarded pitching prospect or three without hurting their long term outlook.  Morneau is a great trade chip as long as he keeps hitting with power, and he's not going to be around by the time this time turns itself around - they need to use him to get the turnaround started.

2.  Denard Span.  I like Span and he's a quality leadoff hitter, but Ben Revere is a very similar player with less power, less discipline, and better defense, and the former two can develop with more time - time he's not getting.  The Nationals have been sniffing after Span for a couple of years now and were even willing, or close to willing, to give up a real young, real good reliever in Drew Storen last year.  I don't know that you can get a blue-chipper like that anymore, but the Nats are contending and are sorely lacking in the leadoff hitter department so they'd still probably love to have Span.  With all their young pitching maybe you can get a MLB ready, middle of the rotation type guy who is still young like Ross Detwiler.  Given Ramos's injury they need a catcher, so maybe throw-in Doumit and get a prospect back or even whichever second basemen they hate less, Steve Lombardozzi or Danny Espinosa - either would be a better 2b of the future than anything the Twins have right now.

3.  Carl Pavano.  I'd say trade the entire rotation, but I can't really see a team parting with anything other than "cash considerations" for anybody other than Pavano or Liriano, and trading Frankie when his value is at an all time low is probably not the right idea, so that leaves Pavano.  He's not exciting, but he's consistent, a decent big league pitcher, and somebody (or multiple somebodies) are going to be looking for that around the trade deadline (not to mention he's affordable).  All four AL East contenders have worse than average rotations so as that divisional chase heats up they're all going to be trying to outbid each other for pitching help, so depending on who else would be on the block Pavano could be near the top of their wishlists (although I don't know if the Yankees would be willing to bring him back).  He'd bring back less of a return than either Morneau or Span, but getting a mid-tier prospect or even a youngish player who is blocked on one of those teams would be worth looking into.

4.  Matt Capps.  I really don't know if anybody is stupid enough to "pull a Twins" and give up something of value for a shitty closer who has racked up saves in his career more out of opportunity than talent, but if anybody is willing to trade anything they should jump on it.  Same with Glen Perkins or really any other pitcher on the entire team.

Pull all that off, and maybe you're looking at a future of:

C - Mauer
1B - Miguel Sano (I'm guessing this is where he eventually ends up) with Parmalee backing him up
2b - Lombardozzi or Espinosa with Plouffe backing up
3b - Dominguez/Travis Harrison
SS - Levi Michael/Brian Dozier
OF - Revere/Benson/Hicks/Rosario/Arcia/Kepler
 with a rotation starting with Kyle Gibson, Appel/Gausman, and Detwiler with Baker/Diamond/Walters (if either of them is real)/other draft pick pitchers/Wimmers/Hudson Boyd/Madison Boer/Adrian Salcedo also in the mix and Deolis Guerra your top bullpen arm.

I dunno.  And that's not even counting in any other prospects that come back in trade other than Dominguez and the Nats' guys, although even though Dominguez is a 3b which the team sorely needs I'd still take Martin Perez over him if they have that option.

And yeah, I realize I'm just playing fantasy baseball basically, but the team is in the shitter and going nowhere, and you have exactly four tradeable assets so trade them.  None of them are going to be around when this team gets close to contending again, so trade them now while they have value.  Anything.  Just do something this year rather than sitting around with their thumbs up their asses like they did last year.  This is what I'd try to do. 

Week in Review - 4/16/2011

Feels like I haven't done one of these in a while, but in honor of baseball really getting going I figure I probably should.  But since I also didn't get started on this until 8pm on Sunday night, let's cut the chit-chat and just get down to business.  This isn't some romantic vacation on an island in some kind of awesome sweetwith rose petals and a jacuzzi with Luther Van Dross playing in the background, sweetheart.  

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Josh Willingham.  There are actually more positive Twins' things I could report on that I would have expected given that the team is 2-7 right now, but the #1 is clearly Willingham (let's not call him Willie, ok, it's super more annoying than any of the other -y nicknames) smacking the ball all over everywhere.  He leads the AL in home runs with four and has a hit in every single game this year and he's not getting lucky either - he's crushing the ball.  He leads the AL in OBP, slugging, and OPS.  It's at the point now where he hasn't hit a homer in the last three games and I'm wondering what's wrong.  With his bat humming, Denard Span with three multi-hit games already, and Liam Hendriks looking surprisingly feisty there are some decent signs of life here.  None of it will matter if Mauer and Morneau don't start hitting, the bullpen continues to refuse to get anybody out, and the starting pitching is mostly awful, but I'm looking for anything to latch on to here.  Plus, as a point in his favor, Mrs. W has quite the raging lady boner for Mr. Willingham, so that's a point in his favor.

2.  Matt Kemp.  So much for all that "slumping the year after a contract year" nonsense.  He had a career year last year, batting .324 and coming one home run shy of notching a 40-40 year and then signed a nice fat 8-year deal that is suddenly looking like it might be a bargain for LA.  Kemp currently leads the majors in batting average (.487), OBP (.523), slugging (1.023), OPS (1.548), home runs (6), RBI (16), runs (13), and hits (19).  He has one fewer home run than Justin Morneau has hits, with Mauer having just two more.  I don't know if he's back with Aaliyah or not back with Aaliyah or dating Bobby Brown or whatever, but it's doesn't really matter - I think Matt Kemp is officially the best player in baseball, other than Clete Thomas of course.

3.  Barry Zito.  What' more unexpected than Zito's complete game shutout in his first start this year?  How about him following that up with another quality start and now sits with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP.  The change?  He's abandoned his 84mph fastball, throwing only about a third of the time compared to over 50% most of his career, and starting throwing a slider with regularity.  Because he still has an 84mph fastball I doubt he can keep this up, particularly once players figure out that slider, but a starting rotation of Lincecum-Cain (1-hitter this week)-Bumgarner-Vogelsong-Zito would damn hard to touch.  If, you know, Lincecum didn't completely suck now - more on that later.


4. UCLA Bruins.  So I guess all the "UCLA won't be able to recruit anymore after that story on Howland/Reeves Nelson" is just so much bullshit, because they certainly didn't have any trouble this signing period.  The Bruins grabbed Shabazz Muhammad, the #1 recruit in the country according to Rivals and #2 according to ESPN, who now joins Kyle Anderson (#3/#5) and Jordan Adams (#62/#41) in giving UCLA ESPN's #3 class in the country, which would be #2 if Nerlens Noel had picked anywhere other than Kentucky.  Even more interesting, big man Tony Parker (#27/#26) is still out there and won't make his decision known until Friday, but it's thought to be down to UCLA (Tony's choice) or Georgia (Mom's choice) with Duke, Ohio State, and Kansas still officially in the mix.  If Parker picks UCLA the Bruins likely become the #1 class in the country and vault back into a national power.  So nice try Reeves, but you can't bring down a juggernaut.  Unless you're in a snow speeder and you use your tow cable, but even then you probably lose your co-pilot.  Poor Dak.  My favorite part of the story though is that Muhammad's sister, Asia, is a pro on the women's tennis tour.  She's ranked #386 on the tour with career earnings of $80k, yet she has a shoe deal with Adidas.  Adidas, who sponsors UCLA hoops.  Funny world, eh?

5.  Chip Armelin.  He wasn't awesome nor did he suck this week, but I need a spot to write about him so I'm sticking him here, seeing as how he's transferring and everything.  I've always liked Chip and thought his instant offense off the bench was important, as well as the fact that out of everybody on the team he seemed to be the only one who had confidence in his own offensive game and was willing to look for his own shot (although Coleman and Dre Hollins got there in the end).  In a normal offseason I would be really bummed about losing him, but if the choice is Armelin or Mbakwe you go Mbakwe every single time.  The reality was with Mbakwe back and Rodney not doing anything stupid you had a scholarship problem and somebody was going to have to leave.  There were 3 choices who wouldn't majorly kill the team - Armelin, Ahanmisi, and Ingram.  Because Ingram was going to be a senior and it's likely not many D-I schools would take Ahanmisi (or Ingram for that matter) I had always anticipated Armelin would be gone, and it sucks but was inevitable.  I wish him nothing but luck, and I fully expect him to end up averaging 15+ per game for somebody.  Seems like in these cases the player always ends up back in his home state and there's no shortage of schools in Louisiana.  So whoever - La Tech, Tulane, or even somewhere else like Texas or Arkansas or somewhere in that vicinity (my prediction) they're getting a good one.  I'll definitely miss that crazy ass lefty jumper no matter how much or little space he had to get it off, and there was nobody who was less shy about taking a heat check.  Godspeed, Chipper.  Godspeed.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Matt Capps.  Thanks to Snacks for point this out to me, but when Cappsy tried like to hell to blow that save on Thursday against the Angels (you know, when the Angels went single-single-single to start the inning but came up one inning short) do you realize out of 23 pitches he threw 21 of them were fastballs?  And, as we know, this isn't Jonathan Papelbon or Aroldis Chapman throwing smoke, it's Matt effing Capps and his 92 mph noodle-arm heater.  He's always been over-reliant on that mediocre fastball, but most years he's thrown it around 75% of the time and this year he's at 83%, which isn't good considering he's about 2mph slower than he was in his "glory" days with the Pirates.  The best part?  As his fastball has gotten slower his change-up has gotten faster and there is now just a 5mph gap between the two (where it should be about 10).  The worst part?  I can't think of a single reliever on the Twins' roster I'd trust more than Capps, because for all p=Twins, trust=null.  Ha ha, nerd talk.

2.  Yeonis Cespedes.  If you pay too much attention to stuff like this, you remember people talking about the A's could/should start Cespedes in the minors because the level of competition in his Cuban league was more like double A here and also because Oakland sucks and weren't going to be competing for anything except next year's number 1 pick.  Well the A's said fuck that noise and threw him into the starting lineup where he started out with a bang, hitting 3 homers in his first four games.  Since then he's gone 3-20 and struck out eight times (and has now struck out in every game but one with 6 multi-K games).  Now, he can still crush (of his seven hits, five of them are for extra-bases) and he has a good eye for the zone (4 walks this year - not great but not bad) so he'll probably end up being a solid player, and that's all I can say because I haven't even come close to watching Oakland this year, except for when I almost got up for those games in Japan but then didn't.

3.  Tim Lincecum.  I think it's like super possible Wiley Wiggins (aka Mitch Kramer) finally did the thing where he kills the real Tim Lincecum and then takes over his body and his life and bangs his wife and spends his money and smokes his dope and all, and I say that because maybe the most unhittable pitcher in baseball over the last several seasons has now gotten lit up by Arizona and Colorado and now has the highest ERA in the majors (12.91) and a sky high WHIP (2.22), which sounds more Wiley Wiggins-y than Lincecum-y.  Plus I also say that because if I was Wiley Wiggins that's exactly what I would do.

4. Charlotte Bobcats.  I have no idea how I didn't know this already, but Charlotte is like, historically bad.  They have seven wins this year.  Seven!  And they won their first game of the year, so they've won six since December.  They're currently in the midst of a 16-game losing streak, and it's not even their first 16-game losing streak this year.  Their most recent loss came on Sunday, 94-82 to the Celtics in a game where Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett all sat out, leaving both Brandon Bass and Avery Bradley to score 22 points.  They haven't scored 100 or more in a non-OT game since March 17th, allowing their opponents to reach 100+ twelve times.  D.J. White starts for them.  Byron Mullens gets serious run.  This could pretty much go on forever.  They're like, the Minnesota Twins of the NBA.

5.  Justin Smoak.  Sigh.  Come on dude, you're killing me.  I've always had a crush on Smoak, as evidenced by the six entries (now 7) on this blog that have his name as a label despite him having a pretty non-descript career thus far and not being a Twin nor being in their division, but seriously dude WTF?  He's awful.  He's just awful.  In four partial seasons he's never hit better than .239, and yes batting average isn't the end-all-be-all but he's also never OBP'd better than .323 or slugged better than .407, so he can't hit for power or average and doesn't walk - basically the opposite of his minor league career.  This year might be the worst, as so far he's hitting at Puntonian levels with an average under .200, an OBP under .250, and a slugging percentage under .300 - for reals.  Ouch.  He's still young and he might end up ok, but at this point I dropped in our fantasy league for Daniel Murphy.  Daniel effing Murphy.  Or maybe David.  The one who plays for the Mets.  Gross.


One other thing is that the wife and I rewatched Malibu Shark Attack this weekend and it reminded me how much fun it is/was to watch crappy shark movies and blog about them, and I haven't done that in forever.  So I'm going to try to do it soon.  Stay tuned.

Monday's Musings (Twins, British Open, Tomlin, TV, Noodle Arms, etc.)

Well it's begun already.  I suppose it was inevitable.  I was listening to the telecast of the Twins first game and they were talking about the Twins possibly making any moves at the trade deadline.  You probably already know where this is going.  So Bert says, he says, "You know, with Span and Kubel about to come off the DL and Morneau down the road (ED:  yeah right) the Twins don't really need to make a move, getting those guys back is already better than making a trade.

Yes.  It's true.  You knew it was coming.  I'm pretty sure you'll hear that same sentiment at least three more times from various announcers/coaches/scribes/radio dudes, and every time you should know it makes me die a little inside.

Speaking of the Twins and dying how freaking bad is Matt Capps?   Meanwhile, in case you're curious, Wilson Ramos is hitting .257/.333/.442 with 9 homers for the Nationals and has thrown out 36% of would-be base stealers.  What that essentially means is he's a Drew Butera who can hit.  I'm not exactly sure of the wording yet, but I'm pretty sure if I end up killing myself in the next month or so I want that on my tombstone.  That or sausage and pepperoni and green pepper.

-  The British Open was kind of interesting in a boring way.  Once again it proved itself to be nearly impossible to predict.  I mean, look how many top guys missed the cut here:  #1 Luke Donald, #2 Lee Westwood, #8 Matt Kuchar, #10 Nick Watney., #11 Graeme McDowell  I guess in retrospect it shouldn't have been surprising that Donald missed it because he's a bit of a dandy, but the other three were definite surprises.  But it makes sense.  Look at who has won this thing lately:  Darren Clarke, Louis Oosthuizen, Stewart "gayest golfer on the tour" Cink.  Before that were two for Paddy and two for Tiger, but this tournament is definitely most likely to be won by a stunner.  Tom Watson's almost win.  Todd Hamilton who I could have sworn was a figure skater.  Ben Curtis.  John Daly.

I'm not even sure it's real golf over there.  But there's no doubt that there are a few guys who you can never count out in a major no matter how badly they look like they're playing in the previous weeks:  Phil, Dustin Johnson, Anthony Kim, Y.E. Yang - always a threat in majors.  Just like guys like Hunter Mahan, Luke Donald, and Ian Poulter have proven it doesn't matter how they're playing or how they're trending or what they're course history is - they can miss a cut at any time.

And the saddest thing of all?  Jim Furyk and Retief Goosen used to be in group 1, but now I think you gotta put them in group 2.  Ask not for whom the Bell tolls, it tolls for thee.

-  As I pointed out last week, Indians' starter Josh Tomlin has a chance to become just the 16th pitcher to qualify for the batting title and finish the season with more home runs allowed than walks allowed.  He took another step towards history on Friday when he allowed 3 home runs to the Orioles against just 1 walk, bringing his season totals to 18 HR allowed and 15 BB allowed.  Additionally, with 11 wins so far he has a chance to become the second most winning pitcher who gave up more homers than walks behind Robin Roberts 19 wins in 1956.  He won't catch Roberts but if he can get to 17 wins he'll pass Greg Maddux, Jose Lima, and Rick Reed to hold the solo second position.  I dunno.  Seems significant.

- Speaking of dominant pitching did you see Jeff Karstens threw a 83-pitch 5-hit shutout for the suddenly playoff-contending Pirates on Friday?  I don't know which part is weirder - that somebody actually only needed 83 pitches to finish a game or that it was Karstens who has thrown a complete game since 2008 because he's usually too busy getting schellacked.  Since I know you're wondering I looked it up and this is the 15th time since 2000 that somebody has thrown a 9-inning complete game using 83 pitches or less.  So I guess it's not as unbelievable as I thought, especially since included in that group are Carlos Silva (74 pitches in 2005) and Scott Baker (79 pitches in 2007) and I don't remember either of them.  I guess my whole equilibrium is just off since the Pirates are in contention.

-  I don't think I've mentioned this before, but the kids' show Phineas and Ferb is one of the five best shows on TV.  Parks and Rec, Community, Game of Thrones, Curb, and Phineas and Ferb.  If you have kids, get them hooked on this immediately.  Whereas I want to stab my own face off after more than one episode of most kids' shows - especially Mickey Mouse Clubhouse - I could sit and watch Phineas and Ferb by myself for hours, so it's actually not torture to sit and watch with Wonderbaby^TM.   The Bear got a few episodes with us a few weeks back and he laughed out loud a couple of times, and he hates everything, so you know it's good.

-  Honestly, if you grabbed 100 random people from local softball leagues how many of them do you think would have a better arm than Ben Revere?  I wouldn't - I'm a kick-ass infielder - but how many out of 100?  I know Snacks has a better arm and a couple other guys I play/played softball with do.  I'm willing to bet it's at least 25%.  I love Ben Revere and all - he's 10x the center fielder Span was and twice Gomez - but that arm is terrifyingly bad.

-  I just bought these shoes because I need something for casual Fridays at work.  Thoughts?

- Joe Mauer, as of this second, has six hits in this doubleheader.  That's pretty impressive, but what really stands out to me is that one of those hits is a double.  I mean, do you know how rare that is for the "Singles King of Minnesota?" (he's like Abe Froman but different). 

-  I don't like this new Eric on True Blood.  I also don't understand what's up with these "faeries. And Pam is way less hot now. "  I also don't think Anna Paquin has gotten naked yet this season, which is stupid because it's probably 25% of why I watch this show.  Another 25% is hoping Jessica will do a nude scene already. 

The remaining 50% is because Mrs. W is hoping to see some Alcide wang.  True story.

-  Pretty good debut by Scott Diamond here (Twins trailing 2-1 in bottom 6), and it damn well better be since he cost them Billy Bullock.  You know, the same Billy Bullock who was a 2nd round pick and was a rare minor league arm in the system who could strike people out from the bullpen.  In case you're curious in AA for Atlanta this year he's pitched 37 innings, allowed 29 hits, walked 19, and struck out fucking 53.  Good thing they don't need him though.

-  Looks like while I was taking out the trash/slicing some celery/making a drink the Twins tied it up and then left Diamond in for too long, brought in Phil Dumacrap, and now they're about to get swept in this double-header, the exact double header they could have used to basically slingshot start into a second half pennant run.  Nice.

-  Speaking of Wonderbaby^TM back whenever I mentioned her she's now somehow gotten to the age where going to bed is equivalent in terribleness to the holocaust.   Honest to god I think she's insane.  She will completely agree to "Ok, one more Phineas and Ferb and then it's bedtime.  No whining, no crying, no fighting" and say those exact words and everything but the minute that show is over and I tell her it's really bedtime we're looking at meltdown city.  This one time she actually grabbed the scimitar I keep on the counter and took a swipe at me.  True story.

-  Requisite picture of my idiot kids:

And here's a picture of my kick-ass son trying to house a chicken wing despite being significantly tooth-challenged:

-  Is it insensitive to say that Chuck James looks like he has either the AIDS or the cancer?  Because if it is then I totally didn't say that, it was a friend of mine who wanted to know.

-  Pitches like one too.

-  Freakin' Babe Plouffe indeed.  Too bad everyone else on the team sucks more balls than your mom.

-  I hate the Twins and I hate all of you.

Week in Review - 7-4-2011

 Happy fourth of July everyone.  And that will be the entirety of my introduction.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Mike Cuddyer.  It pains me to praise Cuddy.  There's so much to hate:  inability to understand what a "strike zone" is, inability to realize that he's getting that down and away in the dirt slider every time he has 2 strikes, and constant media whoring to name a few, but sometimes you gotta give credit where it's due:  Congrats on making your first all-star time, Cuddy Bear.  There's something to be said for a guy who can and will play LF, RF, 2b, 3b, 1b, and SS, especially on a team with a bunch of prima donnas who "don't like to DH" or "refuse to play anywhere except catcher."  More importantly though is he almost seems to have a knack for picking up his hitting when the team needs him most.  First, back in 2009 when he basically carried the offense on his back after Morneau went down and then currently with all the injuries with him being on fire since May.  He's not really an all-star, but they do have to pick one person from every team (Ron Coomer made it once for christ's sake) and I gotta say - guy deserves it.  Mainly because Kubel got hurt, but it still counts.  So congrats Cuddy.  I hope they trade you.

2.  Vance Worley.   As you've probably heard, the Philadelphia Phillies have quite the pitching rotation - Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt each would be the ace of nearly every other team in the league.  So the last thing they need (from an opponent point of view) is a good fifth starter, which means everyone should be looking around a little nervously after Worley's outing against the Red Sox on Wednesday.  He threw 7 innings of 5 hit, 1 run ball against the red-hot Sox, which now brings his ERA down to 2.57 on the year.  He's still more of a reliever being stretched into a starter, but with Oswalt on the shelf now they'll need him in the rotation full-time.  I was going to write something else but honestly does anybody give a crap about this guy right now?  Let's just wait for the playoffs and then we'll talk about him if we need to.

3.  Nick Watney.  He won the AT&T National by 2 shots after going bogey-free over the last 27 holes, shot a 62 on Friday to break the course record at Aronimink, and is on my fantasy team.  The perfect trifecta that every golfer shoots for.

4.  Aramis Ramirez.  I don't know if any single hitter is hotter than Ramirez right now.  He homered 4 times this week including a couple ninth-inning jobbers, one of which was off of Giants' closer Brian Wilson to tie the game - the first homer allowed by Wilson all year.  He also pinch hit and knocked in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth in a different game against the Giants and has hit .400 with 7 homers in his last 11 games.  To be completely honest there's little that bores me as much as the Cubs and the worldwide obsession with them, but sometimes someone just keeps hitting home runs and game winning hits off of people who don't generally give up those kinds of things and then sometimes I take notice.  This is one of those times.

5.  Bryce Harper.  Yes, Brian Harper's kid is proving himself to be a bit of a douche by doing things like blowing kisses to opposing pitchers after he goes yard, but he is also hitting the ever-loving shit out of the ball.  After demolishing the pitching in single-A this year to the tune of .318/.423/.554 with 14 homers, 17 doubles, and 15 steals, he just got promoted to double A ball.  At the age of 18. He's killed the ball at every stop so far (Instructional League, Arizona Fall League, and now single-A) and there really isn't any reason why he shouldn't continue to do so.  So basically a total asshat is going to fly through the minors without any issues and arrive in the big leagues with zero humbless and 100% asshattery.  This is going to be spectacular.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Matt Capps.  I am so sick of Matt Capps and his stupid fat face and his stupid fake Jesse Crain necklace.  It was a stupid trade when they made it, especially when you consider how the team's starting catcher is more brittle than the 6-month old skeleton of that dead hooker I have in my closet, and it's an even more stupid trade now that Cappsy completely refuses to get anybody out.  Not that it should surprise anyone since the only really remarkable thing about his pitching is his consistent opportunities to get saves for shitty teams.  His career ERA, career WHIP, and career mediocre stuff basically scream middle reliever/low-end setup guy, but in 2007 the Pirates didn't have anyone in the bullpen and, after trying Salomon Torres with little success, made Capps their closer and he saved 18 games in mediocre fashion and has been tabbed a closer ever since, which is how we ended up here, with no back-up catcher and a shitty bullpen.  Huzzah! 

2.  Nick Blackburn.  Speaking of mediocre as shit pitchers who get far too much credit, welcome back to reality Nick Blackburn.  A soft-tossing nancy can actually have a long and lucrative career as long as he's left-handed, but seeing as Blackburn throws correctly he will instead continue to flounder about as a 5th starter, maybe 4th, and although he'll have very good stretches at times (like earlier this year) he'll also always fall back into line as a 4th or 5th starter, tops.  Regression to the mean is a very real thing, and also a cruel mistress.  And not the good kind.  You know what I'm talking about.

3.  Joe Mauer.  I know what you're thinking - "Dude, the Twins aren't playing all that badly right now, why so many Twins call-outs?"  And it's because these three guys have been just brutally bad.  I won't get into Mauer's deal too much here because I plan on writing an entire post about it later this week, but let me give you a little spoiler:  he sucks. 

4.  MLB All-Star choices.  Way to go morons.  And I'm not even talking about your average mouth-breather who shows up to games and votes for Derek Jeter and every other Yankee.  I think we've washed our hands of them, yes?  Then it's up to the managers to get everything else right.  Well not really.  Enter poor Andrew McCutchen.  Maybe the best hitting/fielding combo outfielder in the NL, but doesn't make it.  Why?  Because they took Pirate "closer" Joel Hanrahan instead because he has a bunch of saves and is actually having a really good year now that I look it up and he's a totally worthy all-star so I'm kind of losing some wind here.  But McCutchen is really awesome and deserves it.  Actually the fact that he doesn't make it and Cuddy does should really be enough reason to overhaul the whole thing, but I just got my new KC Royals hat in the mail so what do I care?

5.  Kenny Britt.  This guy is taking the art of "talented headcase" to a whole new level.  Whereas your classic headcases like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens generally don't harm anyone other than themselves (and possibly their teammates), Britt seems to be heading more down the Lawrence Phillips path.  Britt surrendered himself to police this weekend because of two warrants for giving false information on a drivers license application, which sounds pretty lame but then you combine that with his three arrests for resisting arrest, including one that ended up in a police chase, and he's going to end up doing something really, really stupid one of these days soon.  If you have him in a keeper league I'd unload immediately.  Call me.


Lastly, I'm sure you all want to know what was on the menu for 4th of July dinner.  Credit goes to Mrs. W on this one - she made a cucumber dill dip (awesome), blue cheese meatballs for the grill (super awesome), and corn on the cob.  The first two were just tremendous, and then corn on the cob is always good but kind of boring.   Anybody know a good way to fancy it up a bit?

How bad are the freaking Twins?

Holy crap you guys, how bad are the Twins? I think we've gone beyond slow start at this point and have officially reached "gunning for the top pick in the lottery" status. I mean, what's been remotely promising so far? They can't hit or pitch, and they're making up for it by running the bases like a bunch of third-graders and fielding like absolute garbage, not to mention everybody who gets hurt needs an ambulance to carry them to the DL for half the season. Twins' baseball used to mean pitchers who threw strikes, fielders who made plays, and just enough offense supplemented by rarely making mistakes on either side of the ball. Now it means getting swept by the Royals.

Granted injuries have left them a bit short handed at times, but it's hard to just chalk up this many hurt players to bad-luck or the training staff - pretty sure it's a big ole contagious case of pussy-itis started by Morneau last year which has now affected half the roster. A week off for the flu? A couple of weeks for sore ribs and the flu, including pulling yourself from the starting lineup because "you can't get loose?" Several months (or more) off because of sore legs? It's baffling, but it fits their candy-soft mentality.

Worse, the players that do play can't hit. Jason Kubel's resurgence closer to his 2009 form after a sub-par 2010 is literally the only positive thing you can say about any position player:

Denard Span seems to have settled into a career role of "completely average lead-off who erases half of the good things he does by being really really fucking stupid running the bases." The problem is who could take over for him? Nobody on this team can handle center field (including Span), and the most likely candidates on the current roster are Jason Repko, a career back-up, and Rene Tosoni, who looks like a smaller, and possibly dumber, Lew Ford. I'm afraid we're stuck with Span until Revere is ready (and I wouldn't mind Denard in LF).

The middle infield is a complete mess, with someone too slow to play first playing at second and two subpar defensive second basemen alternating at shortstop. At least Cuddy can occasionally mash one - neither Tolbert or Casilla is anywhere near a major league quality hitter. (as mentioned here, combined they are the third-worst hitting middle infield since 1980). To make it even worse, Casilla might be the worst fielding shortstop in the league (and gives Span some competition for dumbest player), and the only the reason it isn't clearly him is because Tolbert gives him a run for his money.

The corner infielders should be ok, but Morneau can't seem to figure this whole "baseball" thing out. His power is basically completely gone along with both his patience and his aggressiveness, which sounds like it doesn't make sense but it does. Not only is he swinging at too many pitches (decreased patience) he's also swinging more like a slap-hitter and making contact more often, but poor contact (decreased aggressiveness). Basically he's a complete mess out there, and his drop of Tolbert's throw in that disastrous eight inning against the Royals over the weekend was one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen. I'm not worried about Valencia, at least. His numbers aren't great but if you did into the nerd stats (I'll spare you) he looks like he's just been unlucky and should be ok.

Catcher, geez, where to begin. Either Butera or Holm would make a fine back-up. Lots of teams carry a very good defensive catcher who can't really hit so no big deal. But when you hamstring yourself so severely by trading your two major-league ready back-ups in Jose Morales and Wilson Ramos, this is the situation you create when your dandy of a starter gets hurt for the one hundredth time. I get they thought they needed Capps and had to give Ramos to get him, but why then trade Morales? Mauer is a huge injury risk and they know this, so why guarantee having a guy back there who can't outhit most pitchers? Just a stupid, short-sighted move. Probably the most irritating thing of the entire season.

I don't even know where to being with the pitching. Basically all the starters have decided to stop throwing strikes because when they do throw strikes they're just getting crushed all over the yard. The only two starters with numbers that don't look like they should be an auto-trip to Rochester or the waiver wire are Duensing and Baker, and nerd stats tell us that Duensing is the only one who can remotely even hope to have keep it up.

We all know Blackburn sucks, and Pavano is Pavano and will giveth and taketh away, but this regression by Liriano from promising to disaster could very well be the logo for this season. He's been absolutely dreadful, and he's taken his always maddening approach of nibbling around the corners of the plate to a whole new level. Unfortunately for him, however, the scouting report is out and nobody's chasing. He's tripled his walks from last year, and with him being behind in basically every count to every batter they're pulverizing the ball when he finally puts it in the strike zone. He's already a third of the way to last year's walk total and half way to last year's home run total, all while allowing nearly two baserunners per inning. And sadly, there's no reason at all to think this is going to get better.

Then, if by some miracle, a starter does put together a nice outing there's nobody in the bullpen who bothers getting people out other than Glen Perkins, and if you believe he's suddenly become a good pitcher then go ahead and email me your home address so I can drive over and hit you in the face with a hammer. Joe Nathan is obviously broken, Jose Mijares has seemingly completely lost sight of the strike zone, and the rest of the guys (Hoey, Hughes, Burnett, Manship) are exactly as advertised - terrible and probably don't belong on a big-league roster. Hughes is particularly troubling because he sucked with the Royals yet the Twins jettisoned the promising Rob Delaney to make room for him, and he's suck even worse since joining the team.

That leaves Matt Capps, a competent closer, but the kind of player people who overrate the save stat love and people who love nerd stats underrate a bit. He's serviceable and can get outs but is always a candidate to get completely throttled because his stuff is underwhelming and if he isn't razor sharp with location he's very hittable. All that means he is a thoroughly mediocre bullpen arm, which also he means he's very clearly the Twins' top reliever.

Where does that all leave the team? A terrible hitting team that ranks last in the AL in runs scored, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS (and second to last in OBP). A terrible pitching team that ranks dead last in the AL in ERA, opponents' batting average, and strikeouts. A terrible fielding team with a corner outfielder playing second, a couple of poor second basemen playing shortstop, a left fielder in center, and DHs playing corner outfield. A team with the worst run differential in baseball (outscored by 64 runs this year - more than 2 per game) and the worst record in the game.

Maybe things will turn around when (if) everyone gets back from injury. Maybe those who are struggling will get it figured out. I don't know. What I do know is that no team in history has every made the playoffs after a start this poor. I also know that I totally made that up because I don't actually know where to find that information, but it sounds like it's probably correct, doesn't it?

Seriously, this sucks. I don't know how to handle a summer without meaningful Twins baseball. I may just need to adopt a new team. I think I'm a Royal fan. They at least have hope for the future.

Win Twins: American League Division Series Preview

Even though we all know the New York Yankees are going to sweep since they completely own the Minnesota Twins in every way, Kubel homer off Rivera aside, I feel like I should toss up some kind of preview of some kind since I like to pretend I'm a Twins writer. So how about we take a look, position by position, so we can truly get a read on how badly teh Yanks are going to own this sucker.

CATCHER: Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469 - 9 HRs) vs. Jorge Posada (.248/.357/.454).  Mauer is going to win this battle against any playoff catcher this year, although there's somebody in San Fran who might make a pretty good argument, but his hitting - even with his power disappearing - combined with his defense make him easily the winner in this argument.  Posada is still an ageless wonder but his skills are starting to diminish, even though - and you're going to hear this a lot with NYY - he's still patient and draws a lot of walks and can still hit for power.  His arm is basically shot (he only threw out 16% of base-stealers this year) but that won't really matter since the Twins can't/don't really run.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

FIRST BASE:  Michael Cuddyer (.271/.336/.417 - 14 HRs) vs. Mark Texeira (.256/.365/.481 - 33 HRs).  This year was an off year for Tex (worst avg, obp, and slugging since he was a rook), but he still blows what the Twins have to offer completely out of the water.  The bad Cuddy showed up this year, which is unfortunate because this is when they could use him most, what with their best player on the shelf the second half of the year.  Hopefully he can recapture some of that 2006/2009 magic, because the Twins are going to need all the big bats they can get.  Plus, Texeira is a 3-time gold glover, and although it's commendable that Cuddy is willing to play wherever they need him he's a god awful 1B-man.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees 

SECOND BASE:  Orlando Hudson (.268/.338/.372 - 10 SBs) vs. Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534 - 29 HRs).  Look at those numbers.  Cano is just ridiculous.  Do you realize that slugging percentage of Cano's is the second-highest of any player in this series, behind on Jim Thome?  And we know what Thome has done, but Cano isn't that far behind.  And he plays frickin' second base!  I don't mind Hudson, despite the fact that he's hit .171 since September 8th, but he's far, far, far outclassed here.  Cano is basically Joe Mauer with power, while O-Hud is, well, Alexi Casilla with a a better reputation.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

THIRD BASE:  Danny Valencia (.311/.351/.448 - 7 HRs) vs. Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506 - 30 HRs).  Similar to Texeira, A-Rod had one of the worst years of his entire career but still blows the Twins' offering away.  Not as badly as Tex, thanks to Valencia's high average, good defense, and the fact that he seems to be getting better, but Rodiguez is still so far beyond Dannyboy that, much like Dr. Dre said to his rival rappers, "You couldn't see me with binoculars."  Oh, and if you want to make the argument right now that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs do me a favor:  shut down the internet window you are viewing this blog on and never, ever, ever come back here again because you are a retard.  Also, and this has nothing to do with anything right now except that I'm watching Zombieland, I really dig Emma Stone.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

SHORTSTOP:  J.J. Hardy (.268/.320/.394 - 6 HRs) vs. Derek Jeter (.270/.340/.370 - 18 SBs).  In what is quickly becoming a common theme, Jeter is having the worst year of his career, but this one is at least close.  In actually, Hardy out OPSes Jeter, even though it's like comparing Alexi Casilla to Matt Tolbert, thanks to his higher slugging, and according to every defensive metric I looked it, which is everything fangraphs has, Hardy is a better fielder.  So we're going to have to give this one to Minnesota.  Which doesn't feel right.  And not because it's Captain Intensity and Sportsmanship, because he's been overrated for years, but because it's Hardy and he kind of sucks.  Sorry ladies.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

LEFT FIELD:  Delmon Young (.298/.333/.493 - 21 HRs) vs. Brett Gardner (.277/.383/.379 - 47 SBs).  Tough call, because these guys couldn't be more different.  Young is the lumbering stick-man, finally coming into his own and showing some of his promise while at every pitch within a 4-mile radius of home plate.  Gardner is the fleet of foot slap-hitter who is probably the best left-fielder in baseball and is very selective at the plate.  It is close, but Young's extra power can't make up for Gardner's non-hitting skills.  And I don't mean like, his ability to cook a nice steak on the grill (top notch from what I hear.  He uses a little bit of garlic butter is the rumor), I mean the speed and fielding thing.   ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

CENTER FIELD:   Denard Span (.264/.331/.348 - 26 SBs, 10 3Bs) vs. Curtis Granderson (.247/.324/.468 - 24 HRs).  Sigh.  Remember when Span looked like he was going to become your prototypical leadoff hitter?  Like a poor man's Tim Raines with less steals?  Well now he's more like a poor man's Vince Coleman with way, way less steals (NOTE:  Coleman was actually a terrible hitter, which you probably don't remember because you were blinded by his blindingly blinding speed.  Blind.)  Granderson has been just barely good this year, but he destroys the new, slower Vince Coleman.  Quick, guess how many walks Spoleman has had since August 24th:  It's 12.  Jason Repko has nine in that same time frame, and he plays like every 8th day.  In short, Denard Span is a huge disappointment and I hope he gets the mumps.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

RIGHT FIELD:  Jason Kubel (.249/.323/.427 - 21 HRs) vs. Nick Swisher (.288/.359/.511 - 29 HRs).  Both of these guys would be better off playing softball so don't expect any great fielding antics (unless you count diving and catching a ball a normal fielder would get to standing up as a great fielding play), but Swisher is merely bad while my boy Kubes is basically a butcher of historic proportions.  And as far as hitting goes, Kubel is Kubel this year, while Swisher is what Kubel was last year.  No contest.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

DESIGNATED HITTER:  Jim Thome (.283/.412/.627 - 25 HRs) vs. Lance Berkman (.248/.368/.413).  Thank god Thome is involved here, because he'd win a comparison against anyone.  Berkman?  Please.  A-Rod?  Not this year.  Babe Ruth?  Sorry fatty.  Zeus?  No mythical beings allowed.  Jesus?  I said no mythical beings allowed.  So Berkman and his big giant chin have no chance.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #1/#5:   Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).  This is an incredibly even matchup, especially because when you start looking at the nerd stats Liriano actually comes out pretty far ahead thanks to his great HR/9 mark and because his walk and strikeout numbers are way better than Sabathia's.  Just looking at the "mainstream" stats you'd pick Sabathia, but go a bit deeper and it's pretty obvious Liriano has actually been the better pitcher this year, and it's actually not all that close.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #2:  Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).  This is a pretty even matchup, if you ignore the fact that the Twins seemingly couldn't hit Pettitte if he tossed the ball underhand.  A little wrinkle here is that Pettite is just getting back from injury, having pitched just three times since mid-July, and topped out at just 88 pitches in those three starts since returning.  Pavano has been very good this year, even though he's tapered off a bit since that streak of 18 consecutive complete games or whatever it was, and with his propensity to throw strikes the patient approach of the Yankees shouldn't bother him, and may even play in his favor.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #3:  Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).  One thing I really love about this matchup is that since the all-star break Hughes has been absolutely awful, with an ERA near 5 despite a fluky low BABIP of .262 and less than a 2-1 KK/BB ratio.  That means he's been simply dreadful.  And we know, outside of his last few starts, that Duensing has been brilliant this year, so all signs point to a Twinkie advantage.  Except of course, that the last time he pitched at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs he got shelled.  Still.....ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #4:  Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).  I know Blackburn has been pitching must better since his trip to AAA, and I know Burnett is mostly a mess, but I can't possibly give the advantage to the Twins here.  Blackburn doesn't have great stuff so he must rely on location so much that his margin for error is razor-thin, and when he's even slightly off he's gotten roasted by the likes of Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City - can you imagine what the Yankees will do to him if he's not 100% locked in?  It's not like Burnett has been great lately, since June 4th his ERA is 6.46, and I know Blackburn has come up in the clutch in the past, but I just can't do it.  Plus Sabathia is almost certainly going to be the one pitching this game.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

[NOTE:  New York hasn't announced their pitching lineup, so this is all just conjecture.  Good chance Sabathia comes back to pitch game #4 (where he'd obviously have a huge advantage over Blackburn), leaving Pettitte vs. Liriano for game 5 if it gets that far.]

CLOSER:  Matt Capps (42/48 saves, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Mariano Rivera (33/38 saves, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP).  Father fucking time aka the Sandman just keeps rolling along, and you can throw out that blown save to the Twins earlier because those 2 ERs he allowed accounted for 33% of the ERs he allowed through August.  Of course, he's been super-mortal here in September, with an ERA of 7.38 and 3 blown saves in the month, but I'm not exactly ready to call him done just yet.  Plus, the best team Capps has ever played on before this year was a 68-win Pirate team, so not only has he never pitched in the playoffs, but he's really never pitched in a meaningful game.  Seriously, how do you feel when you think about Capps coming in to Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the ninth with the Twins up 3-2? Nauseous, at best.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

BULLPEN:   Crain/Fuentes/Guerrier/Mijaries/Rauch vs. Wood/Chamberlain/Robertson/Gaudin/Logan.  I haven't seen the Yankees postseason roster, so I'm not sure if all those guys will be on there, but the main three - Wood, Chamberlain, and Robertson - certainly will be.  Wood has basically been unhittable since he came over from Cleveland, but Chamberlain hasn't been great this year (although he still strikes out a ton of guys and can be untouchable when he's on) and Robertson is definitely hittable.  One thing that should help the Twins out is that the only lefty in the pen is Boone Logan, and although he's been good this year and particularly tough on lefties, he's been awful in his career overall and hasn't ever pitched in the postseason - could be where the Twins can take advantage.  Overall, despite the struggles in the last couple of weeks, I like the Twins' group better.  Although every single one of them scares me to death.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins 

Total it all up and the Twins look good on the mound, with the Yankees holding an advantage at the plate and win the overall breakdown by the slimmest of  margins at 8-7.  Of course, games aren't played with words on crappy, third-rate blogs, they're played between the lines where anything can happen.  Because this is your state, this is your team, and this is Twins Territory!

Yanks in 4.

But not if Wonderbaby^TM has anything to say about it.






If you're looking for another take, here's Reusse's breakdown using a similar method, but the results are very, very different and a lot more stupider.

Five Game Lead.

Home from the hospital and watching the end of the Twins game.  Might as well put some thoughts down on paper (as it were).  We're in the top of the seventh, Twins up 7-5 with a runner on first and one out. 

Just got a text from Snacks:  "Wow chris sale is fucking nasty, not looking forward to seeing him for the next 20 years."  Agree with the nasty part, and I'll assume 20 years in hyperbole.  Follow up text "Or he could be the next Mike MacDougal."  Also possible.  I don't know if he's projected to end up a starter someday, which is what I'd bet on, but let's hope the Sox ship him out in a trade for Manny Ramirez or something.  He made Joe Mauer look silly, and that doesn't happen often.

-  Jesse Crain is in, and man has he turned a corner for me.  It wasn't long ago I would cringed at him coming in here, but right now I'm pretty happy he's in for this high leverage situation.  Don't let me down Jesse.  Everybody I know named Jesse just ends up disappointing me or letting me down and I just don't like any of them.  If you know anybody named Jesse, they probably suck, am I right?  Don't be like that Crain, don't be like that. 

-  Strikes out Konerko who did not, in fact, Konork one.  Inning over. 

-  Justin Morneau commercial here, where he's drinking any size softdrink from McDonald's for just a buck while lifting weights with a bear.  Do McDonald's any size soft drinks for a dollar cause symptoms similar to a terrible concussion?  Dizziness?  Disorientation?  Bloating?  Who hasn't felt that after eating (and, presumably, drinking) at McDonald's?  Has anyone investigated this?

-  So I'm pretty happy with the Trevor Mbakwe news (he's back on the Gopher squad) and you should be too assuming you're not an old white guy who hates any black player who has ever had a minor scrape with the law, deserved or not.  If nothing else this proves that Mbakwe is slippery enough to work his way out of an obvious frame job by some kind of anti-Minnesota cabal.  Something Royce White couldn't manage.  Worth mentioning.

-  Sale walks Kubel.  Guess he's not that good afterall.

-  Tall, throws 97+, and wild as hell. He could end up the next Randy Johnson.  Or the next Odalis Perez.

-  Knock for Cuddy (suck it Snacks).  He hit that ball as slow as one can and still get it through the SS/3B hole, but it's still a hit.  Guys a stud.

-  Strikes out Thome on 3 pitches and made him look silly.  If nothing else, Sale has a future as a LH specialist, although I suspect he's going to embarrass some Twins as a starter for years to come. 

-  Wait, Brett Favre is coming back to QB the Vikes?  How do I not know this?  Why isn't there any media coverage of something this big?  An embarrassment of epic proportions for the media here.  Like when Torii Hunter dove for that ball Mark Kotsay hit.

-  Scott Linebrink in.  So the Sox bullpen has Linebrink, Santos, Putz, Thornton, and Sale?  Holy god does that sound good.  Too bad they suck.

-  Delmon with a hard hit ball to first for an out which moves the runners up.  I'm stunned right now that Bert isn't extolling his virtue for "sacrifing" himself to move the runners along.

-  One thing I would post about if I was doing a 6 things post tonight is how BYU is leaving the Mountain West.  Having Boise move in seemed to legitimize the conference (football wise), but then having Utah leave neutralized that move, so I guess BYU figured they weren't ever going to get a BCS bid this way (note:  try being good first) so they are taking this step.  Although this means the rest of their sports are apparently moving to the WAC, which kills their basketball team.  Now I understand football makes the money, but BYU in hoops could basically pencil themselves in for an NCAA bid every single year, and now they are moving to a conference where it takes an absolute incredible season to get a bid (ask Utah State).  About the only upside I see here is that when I attend my semi-annual USU game I get a shot at seeing BYU.  Although I fail to see how that helps the Cougars.  Maybe they feel pretty good about throwing off the shackles on a conference affiliation.  Next is throwing off the shackles of an oppressive religion.  Baby steps, I suppose.

-    Quentin (who I still thinks looks like a retarded Cartman) laces a hit to center.  AJ now up with nobody down.  And you know what?  I have no idea why people boo A.J. when he comes to Minnesota.  The guy played his heart out when he was here, has nothing but good things to say about the Twins organization if you listen to him when he's on KFAN, and is just a gamer, which white people seem to love.  The alleged Delmon Young play which isn't a controversy although people seem to be trying to make it one?  When asked about it AJ said, "He had no other play and it's part of the game" or something similar.  You want me to say it?  Fine.  I love A.J. Pierzinski.  And I love him even more now because he hit into a double play.

-  We might be heading towards a Capps appearance here.  That makes me far more nervous than bringing in an acquired at the trade deadline closer should.  Oh and I saw earlier today on Twitter (follow me @downwithgoldy) that the Nationals called up Wilson Ramos after he had a solid few weeks at AAA.  Man, if he ends up becoming a star, I won't care at all because the Twins are winning the World Series this year.

-  First and third now after Hudson and Mauer hits.  Makes Mauer 4-5, with a HR and a double.  Pretty good night.  He's been about as hot as anybody since the break.  Do you realize how good this lineup would be if Morneau hadn't gotten whacked in the head?  Or how good it is without him?  Snacks made an interested point last time he was drunk and rambling;  getting Morneau back basically just takes Thome out of the lineup.  Do ou want Thome out of the lineup?  I sure as hell don't.  Maybe Morneau will clear waivers and they can trade him for Dan Haren.

-  Kubel grounds out because he sucks and that's why I traded him.  Capps in.  Breath being held.

-  Text from Snacks:  "I feel like Capps blwing saves now will benefit the Twins so Crain is doing it in October."  I don't even know what to say here.  Poor kid has an obsession with Jesse Crain that borders on the creepy.  Also, I'd assume he means "doing it in October" as saving games, but really.  Jesse Crain in the 9th in a one run game against the Yankees in the playoffs?  I can't imagine anybody likes that idea, not even Crain lover #1.

-  It's the Final Countdown.  Bu-du dah dah, buh-dah dah dah dah, dah-du dah dah dah, the Final Countdown!

-  One out.  Easy.  Omar Vizquel should retire.

-  Jason Repko in right to replace Kubel.  Good.  Game needs more Repko.

-  Double by Beckham.  Terribel terrible terrible pitch.  Right down the middle.  Seriously, if we rate Rauch as say a 7.0, Capps is a 7.1.  Ugh.

-  Base hit by Pierre.  One run game.  Ugh.

-  Ramirez somehow misses on an absolute meatball and grounds out to third base.  Tying run on second, two away.  I really really really hope nobody was expecting Joe Nathan when they traded for Capps.  If you were you are an idiot and should stop watching baseball.  Giving up Ramos for him was just terrible. 

-  Konerko grounds out to first, Twins win and are now up 5 games.  Wrap this one up, it's over.  Looking forward to getting swept by the Yankees.  Good night everybody.

Six Very Important Things this Morning 7.30.2010

1.   I'm unsure about this.  Big move down Twins way, moving Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, a deal that I now Super Twins Blogger Aaron Gleeman hates already, thanks to the miracle of twitter.  I don't hate it, but I also don't love it.  Kind of like the show Big Bang Theory.  I'm not a fan of trading Ramos in a trade that isn't really the kind that will put you over the top, but Capps is better than Rauch, even if it's not a huge upgrade, he was absolutely lights out from 2006-2008, and he has significant closing experience.  Maybe it's the last little bit of the nerd in me holding on to something old school but I believe there is value in having closing experience.  The downside, of course, is that they traded their top prospect (top 3 at worst) for a rental, because Capps is a free agent after this year, and it makes me a bit queasy to trade a top young guy for a reliever.  I need more time to really digest this, but I think I kind of like it but don't love it.  Of course, I'm also a huge lover of trades because they're fun, so that bumps it up a notch.

2.  A few other trades went down yesterday.  The most high profile was Roy Oswalt to the Phillies for J.A. Happ and a couple of mediocre prospects, a steal for the Phillies since the Astros are paying $11 million of his salary next year and they didn't have to guarantee his 2012 option.  This now gives Philly a 3-man playoff rotation of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Oswalt, and I think we have a Miami Heat situation brewing in the NL.  Other trades include the shell of Miguel Tejada to the Padres for a middling minor leaguer, Jorge Cantu to the Rangers for a couple of promising pitchers even though Texas is broke, and an odd swap of minor leaguers between the Astros and Blue Jays involving one of the prospects the Astros had received just hours earlier in the Oswalt trade and a guy the Jays got in the Halladay trade last year.  So basically the market for starters is crap, but the Twins overpaid for Capps.  Awesome.

3.  Sticking with baseball, we need a moment of silence.   Stephen Strasburg is dead.  Well shut down and on the DL, retroactive to his last start so he'll be back in about 10 days.  But still.  Apparently he's basically just got a sore shoulder with a little inflammation and it's not really a big deal, but because the Nats are going nowhere and Strasburg is basically Sidd Finch with a golden arm, there's no reason to put him at even a minuscule risk of further injury.  Now if only they could find a team to give up a top prospect at a tough position to fill, like catcher, for a pretty decent but overvalued reliever.  Oh, and you can also read how Jim Bunning is batshit insane if you follow that link.

4.   R. A. Dickey is really starting to piss me off.  He continues to somehow pitch well, so well in fact that the article title after his start tonight was "Dickey Dominates."  After taking a 3-hitter into the ninth before running into some trouble and getting yanked, Dickey is now 7-4, but more importantly is sporting a 2.32 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP; ace-like numbers.  That ERA is less than half his career number, his WHIP is almost a half base-runner per inning better this year, and for a guy who has only been a part-time starter in his career he's been able to go at least 6 innings in 12 of his 14 starts this year.  And, in case you're wondering, his BABIP is right where it should be, so there's no reason to expect him to suddenly start to suck.  Seriously, this is so far beyond a career-year that we need a new word for it.  This is his Brady Anderson year.

5.  The Jeremy Tyler saga continues.  You might remember Tyler as one of the top incoming recruits for the class of 2010, who had signed on with Louisville and Rick Pitino.  Then he decided the best move for him would be to leave high school after his junior year and play professionally in Israel until he became eligible for the NBA.  He then quit after just 10 games (averaging 2.1 points and 1.9 rebounds per game in 7.6 minutes) after a series of issues including leaving a game at half time in protest that he wasn't getting enough minutes.  He's now hooked up with a team in a Japanese League, and will presumably play over there next year unless he quits again.  He will be eligible for the NBA Draft next season, so we'll find out if it was worth it.  Pretty much a toss up right now between living in a land where you don't know the culture or the language, not getting along with teammates, and high levels of frustration versus being a star and banging a different coed every night.  Tough call. 

6.  Northwestern's NCAA cherry takes a hit.  This happened a few days ago but I haven't commented on it and I think it's big enough that I should make sure to mention, but Kevin Coble has decided to hang 'em up and has left the Wildcat basketball team.  It's unfortunate for Northwestern, because between him and John Shurna they would have had two big weapons who could score from inside or outside, and with Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford back and highly rated freshman Jershon Cobb joining the team, they were looking very good for their first ever NCAA bid.  They will still be good enough to make a run, but it will be tough without Coble, who led the team in scoring and rebounding all three years of his career, but was sidelined by a foot injury last year, and left the team to focus on his academics and get his degree.  Just goes to show you can't trust a nerd.


I'm sure I'll have more thoughts on the Capps trade.  Stay tuned.

Six Very Important Things this Morning 7.28.10

1.  The Twins blitzed the Royals again.  Once again your beloved hometown 9 started the game strong, scoring two in the first (which could have been more but Denard Span has a serious aversion to staying on base), then coasted there way to an 11-2 win behind another offensive explosion from Danny Valencia.  Another four hit game for the not-a-slap-hitter gives him back-to-back four hit outings and makes four straight games with at least 3 hits.  Mauer, Hardy, Young, Cuddy, Span, and Butera each had at least two hits as well.  This team is absolutely rocking the ball.  Butera is nearly hitting .200 for christ's sake, what the hell is going on?  Maybe most impressively, Pavano was clearly not on last night the way he has been lately, but he was able to pitch around trouble for his five innnings, allowing only one run, and the bullpen took it from there.  They're really clicking right now, and if the non Pavariano starters can keep it together they could end up taking this thing.   hahahahahahahahahahahamakeatrade.

2.  Sticking with the Twins, apprently they're exploring Matt Capps.  According to Tim K. at ESPN they aren't happy with Rauch and have looked into acquiring Capps, and learned that the Nats would want Wilson Ramos back.  This is lunacy on so many levels.  Capps is nearly identical to Rauch.  Although he might be slighly better he's in no way Wilson Ramos better.  Maybe a Matt Tolbert better.  If this happens I quit being a fan.  Let's hope the Twins leave the exploring of Matt Capps to either Mrs. Capps or various ladies of ill repute, ok?  Speaking of which, ask me about Brendan Donnelly some time.

3.  Just when you thought the Wolves offseason couldn't get any more bizarre.  Newest news is that Jonny Flynn will be out 3-4 months due to hip surgery, which means the Wolves have now gone from three viable point guards to 1 + Bassy Telfair.  If you're scoring at home, Kahn has now essentially cleared house, getting rid of nearly everybody from the previous regime and now getting started on moving out his own guys, as Sessions and Hollins were both Kahn signings last offseason.  It's a bold move, and is it just me or does Kahn have a little Steinbrenner in him?  Who else would sign someone to a four year, $16 million dollar contract just to trade him the next year for a player who was immediately cut?  He basically kicked him out of bed in the middle of the night and didn't even supply cab money.  Ain't right.

4.  The baseball world holds its collective breath.   Super phenom (and fantasy team savior) Stephen Strasburg was scratched from his start against the Braves last night after he was "unable to get loose" in the bullpen.  That was the official explanation.  They said there was no pain or anything, he was just unable to get loose.  I usually find a couple of kamikazes does the trick.  Seriously though, this could potentially kill baseball. 

5.  NFL Writers in Cincinnati are going to be busy.  The Bengals, in keeping with their tradition of being a complete mess, have signed Terrell Owens.  If you were in the same room as me right now you would see me showing how much I care about this by making fart noises with my mouth.

6.  Best Second-Baseman Ever?  Rickie Weeks went deep again last night, which makes three consecutive nights and gives him six home runs in his last ten games.  For the year he's now up to 22 home runs, and is basically having the same season as Joe Mauer - if Mauer had 22 home runs, 7 steals, and played a god awful second-base.  But who cares about fielding when you're destroying the ball?  He might not have the average you'd always want and he strikes out quite a bit, but he also can take a walk and when he makes contact he hits the ball a ton.  So exactly like the exact opposite of every Twins' middle infielder ever, and Gardy's worst nightmare.


I'm hoping tomorrow's post is going to be a gopher hoops recruiting rundown, something I've been really neglecting since I am spending basically all my energy on the Twins for some reason.  Well, that and preparing the house for the new kid, who is really just going to be a time sink and money drain.  Joy!

Let's Talk Closers

I wasn't planning on writing anything since I'm still so damn tired from that damn Chicago trip, but I happened to be in the car and flipped on the radio and listened to a little Twins Spring Training game.  Even though we're in the heart of the NCAA Tournament, and the two rounds where the best basketball is usually played, it still made my heart skip a beat for summer and some hardball.  Of course, I also had to hear Gordy and Gladden talk about how Jesse Crain would be a great closer if he could just throw strike one, and I don't exactly miss that, but you take the good with the bad.

And even though I know the Twins aren't going to make a move, and even though I know they are going try to go with a closer-by-committee, and even though I know it's not going to work and they're going to wait too long to try and fix it, I'm going to look at the outside possibilities anyway.  Mainly to educate myself on how many options are out there that are going to be ignored.

So here are 10 possible closers we might find wearing a Twins' jersey and working as a closer at some point this year, in the order I found information on them:

1.  John Smoltz.  I bring him up because a reader mentioned him in the comments, but the only thing I find attractive about him is that he's a free agent and wouldn't cost anything outside of the contract to acquire.  At 43 with rapidly dropping velocity and a rapidly rising flyball rate, it's tough to figure out what would be attractive here.  He just took a job with TBS, but his contract has provisions in it where he can leave to play ball if he gets a contract offer.  How badly would that move reek of desperation?  And how much does it sound like something that is going to happen around July?

2.  Kerry Wood.  In the last year of his contract (unless he finishes 55 games this year), Wood is a natural to come up in every closer-related trade rumor.  Of course, Wood is hurt again, this time with a strained back muscle, and with $10.5 million coming his way this year there's no way the Twins would make a move for him now, and nor should they.  If he comes back strong and nobody has stepped up by mid-summer, I can see this one happening, division foe or not.

3.  Mike MacDougal.  I'm not sure about this one, especially because he just got released by the freaking Marlins, but MacDougal did have 20 saves last season for the Nationals and has notched 20+ in two other seasons in his career.  He throws hard and gets a lot of groundballs, so he's an intriguing possibility, but he walks as many as he strikes out these days.  I'd be much more interested in him if he had become available prior to Spring Training, but if he's willing to sign for cheap I'd endorse this move.

4.  Heath Bell.  I've mentioned him here before, and he's probably the best possible option, but the Padres are apparently asking for Glen Perkins and two "good" prospects.  I've said it before, if by "good" they mean guys like Ben Revere, they can screw off, but if they mean guys more like Trevor Plouffe, I'd consider myself intrigued.  This team is in position to win this year, and a move like this takes that up another notch, not to mention showing a nice shift in team philosophy.  

5.  Derrick Turnbow.  Remember this guy?  He notched 39 saves for the Brewers in 2005 with a sub-2.00 ERA and looked poised to be a star, but fell off a cliff since then.  In the next three seasons he's posted a total ERA north of six and has started walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out, and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2008.  He was just released by the Marlins, who apparently stockpiled crappy relievers this Spring, and it actually sounds like he's retiring due to a shoulder injury, but I'm including him here mostly because I already typed all that stuff above before I read the part about the injury.

6.  Jason Frasor.  The other hot name behind Bell, and I'm not entirely certain why he's such a hot commodity.  He saved just 11 out of 14 opportunities, and last year was the first time he posted an ERA under 4 in the last four seasons and the first time he ever put up a WHIP under 1.2.  He's cheaper than Bell, would cost less in prospects, so I see the interest, but I'm not sure he's necessarily any better than Rauch, Neshek, or any of the other clowns the Twins have.  That said, if they can get him in a straight swap for Glen Perkins I would enthusiastically endorse it.

7.  Matt Capps.  I know the Twins had their shot to sign him this off-season if they really wanted him, and they wisely laid off, but time's have changed with Nathan's elbow issues.  I can't imagine the Nationals really need a $4.5 million closer this year when they're going to struggle to win 65-games, and with just a one-year deal it's hard to imagine them not looking to deal him around mid-season.  I fear he's really more of a middle reliever type who's been forced into a closer role, and he regressed big-time last year, so I can't imagine the Twins making this move unless he either provs himself to be back to being good or they get really desperate. 

8.  Francisco Cordero.  He's a pretty big long shot, considering he will make $12 million each of the next two years, but I'm starting to have to stretch to get to 10 and what do the Reds need with a $12 million closer?  Actually they have a pretty good young roster, but if it seems they aren't quite ready I can see the Reds moving guys like Cordero, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo - they could always try to convert Jose Arredondo into a closer.  I doubt the Twins get involved here, but it's always possible, particularly if anything further goes wrong with Nathan.

9.  Octavio Dotel.   He seems to be about 100 years old, but he keeps plugging along, putting up decent numbers.  He's now on the Pirates, making $3.5 million this year, and they have a club option for next year for $4.5 (although the option becomes team/player mutual if he's traded).  The Pirates have started to show that their front office gets it, and there's really no need for them to bother keeping him - not to mention having that trade clause in there shows they've had that in mind since they signed him.  Actually, other than Bell, Frasor, or (god help me) Smotlz, he's probably the most likely to end up a Twin.

10.  Eddie Guardado.  He's almost certainly going to retire, and there is really no point in bothering to bring him in since him getting people out is basically little more than a rumor at this point, but tell me this, as a Twins' fan, that this doesn't sound like something they'd do.

Of course, I could be wrong about all this too.  ESPN's Eric Karabell believes Jon Rauch could be the next closing star - or at least the next David Aardsma, and really if you look at the ten guys I listed above it's mostly garbage.

I don't know.  I'd still feel a lot better if they got Bell, or are at least prepared to pull the trigger on Wood if he shows he's recovered.  All I really know is that this sucks, because the Twins did basically everything I wanted them to do, and now we have to worry about this.  Arg.  At the very least, tell me they're going to pick somebody, hopefully Rauch, and just go with him.  I have less than zero interest in dealing with watching some kind of closer-by-committee garbage all year.  I prefer to focus my rage on one player at a time.


Sweet 16 predictions coming Wednesday night, so if you are still waiting on my picks to make your wagers, just sit tight.