The Best Rule 5 Picks of All Time

I've been pretty impressed with Ryan Pressly this year.  He has a sub 3.00 ERA in more than 40 innings pitched in middle relief this year.  As you may recall, he was a Rule 5 draft pick by the Twins last year and per league rules must be on the major league roster all year.  This rule was created as an opportunity for minor leaguers that are not on the 40 man roster and have been with the team for either 5 (18 year olds) or 4 (19 and up) years.  Basically this rule gives some players an opportunity to play when they might otherwise continue toiling away in the minors.  By the way, the Rule 4 draft is just the regular June amateur draft.  The most often discussed Rule 5 star that you may know is Johan Santana.  Unless you stumbled upon this blog searching for a Pirahnaconda review. However, there are many other notable Rule 5 selections.

Here's a countdown of my top 20 rule 5 picks of all time:

20.  Alexi Ogando, 8.3 WAR:  2011 All-Star has a 3.09 career ERA bouncing between starting and the bullpen for the Rangers.  The Rangers took him from the A's in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft. 

19. Scott Podsednik, 6.9 WAR:  Podsednik was a .281 career hitter and stolen base monster.  He stole 309 bases over his 11 year career, stealing more than 40 on four separate occasions and once stealing 70 for the Brewers.  He was an All-Star in 2005, his first season with the White Sox.  He was a Rule 5er only in name as he was signed and released a billion times in his career.  The dude still made almost $10MM and is (was?) married to Lisa Dergan, so don't feel bad.

18.  Everth Cabrera, 5.8 WAR:  Drafted in 2004 by the Rockies and then selected in 2008 by the Padres via Rule 5.  Everth is just 26 and is really coming into his own as the starting shortstop for the Padres.  He's an elite base stealer, with 75 steals over the last year and a half.  He was recently named to his first All-Star team in 2013 by hitting 291/371/397 with 31 steals in the first half.

"Ok Shane, give me sexy"

17.  Shane Mack, 21.6 WAR: The only player on this list that wasn't an all-star.  Mack was the 11th overall pick in 1984 and a member of that year's silver medal Olympic squad.  In 1990 he was selected by the Twins and went on to hit .326 over 125 games that year.  Mack was a career .299 hitter and great outfielder; his best years were his 5 with the Twins where he hit 309/375/479.  His best single season was 1992 where he hit 315/394/467 with 16 homers, 75 RBI, 101 runs and 26 steals.  He led the league in HBP (15) and was 4th in hits with 189.

16.  Joakim Soria, 12.7 WAR:  Soria only has 2 innings pitched so far this year after coming off of Tommy John surgery, but in his five prior years he amassed 160 saves for the Royals.  Like Mack, Soria was selected from the Padres' system in 2006.  The Mexicutioner has a career 2.38 ERA and 1.037 WHIP and is a two time All-Star. 

Who is the crappiest pitcher to win a game in 4 decades?

15.  Mike Morgan, 28.9 WAR:  Morgan played baseball from age 18 to age 42 starting in 1978.  He played for 12 different teams and while he was often effective; he never stayed with one team for more than four years in a row.  He was 141-186 over his career with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.  Morgan was selected 4th overall in 1978 by the A's in the June draft and immediately made his first appearance on June 11th at age 18.  In 1980 he was traded to the Yankees and in 1982 he was traded to the Blue Jays along with Dave Collins and Fred McGriff for Tom Dodd and Dale Murray.  Oops, Yankees.  In December of 1984 he was removed from the 40 man roster and the Mariners selected him in the Rule 5 draft.  Morgan threw 200+ inning 6 different times and was an All-Star in 1991 when he went 14-10 with a 2.78 ERA for the Dodgers.  His best season may have been 1992 when he went 16-8 with a 2.55 ERA for the Cubs.

14.  Dave Hollins, 17.7 WAR:  Yet another player that was taken from the Padres via Rule 5, Hollins played his first 6 seasons in the majors with the Phillies.  Hollins was oft-injured and only played over 100 games 6 times in his career, which ended at age 36 due to SPIDER BITES!  Apparently the bites caused complications with his diabetes (die-a-BEE-tus).   The switch hitter was a part of the 1993 Phillies softball team that lost to the Blue Jays in the World Series.  Hollins was a career 260/358/420 hitter, but his best season was in 1992 when he hit 270/369/469 with 27 homers, 93 RBI and 104 runs.

13.  Kelly Gruber, 16.5 WAR: Drafted 10th overall in 1980 by the Indians and subsequently selected by the Blue Jays in 1983.  Gruber played in parts of 10 seasons; 9 of which with the Jays.  He was a two time All-Star and was considered a good defensive third baseman.  His best year as a pro was 1990 where he hit 274/330/512 with 31 homers and 118 RBI.  He was fourth in MVP voting that season and also won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards.

Look at those pecs!

12.  Jody Davis, 15.8 WAR: Selected by the Cubs in the 1980 Rule 5 draft, Davis was the Cubbies' signal caller for parts of 9 straight seasons.  He was around during the WGN hey-day and was kind of a masher -- or was the wind blowing out?  Davis hit 17+ homers in 5 straight seasons, clearing 20 twice.  He was a two time All-Star and received one gold glove award.  He was in even in the MVP voting twice, including a 10th place finish in 1984 when the Cubs won the eastern division title.  1983 was probably his best year; he hit 271/315/480 with 24 homers and 84 RBI.  Although he did have a whopping 21 passed balls that year.  WTF, Jody?  He was 8th in extra base hits that year and caught 150 games; and probably a boatload of them were under the Chicago sun.

11.  R.A. Dickey, 14.4 WAR:  This was the hardest guy to place on the list as he's really only had 2 or 3 good seasons, but one of them was fantastic and he earned the Cy Young for it; becoming the first knuckleballer to win the award.  In 2012 he went 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.053 WHIP and 230 strikeouts.  After his fantastic 2012, he has since been traded to the Blue Jays where he's 8-9 with a 4.77 ERA.  Dickey flopped as a conventional pitcher over several season with the Rangers and was actually selected via Rule 5 by the Mariners after signing a minor league deal with the Twins in November.  Dickey is kind of an interesting character.  His at-bat walk-up music is the theme from the Game of Thrones.  In 2011 he climbed Mount Kilimanjaro and raised $100,000 to fight human trafficking in India.  He released an autobiography in 2012 and has a deal for more books on the horizon.

5'9", 6'2" with the tall hat.

10.  Bip Roberts, WAR 20.5:  Leon Joseph Roberts was a Pirates 1st round selection in 1982, but was later drafted in the 1985 Rule 5 draft by the Padres.  Finally, the Padres are on the other end of this thing!  Bip played for 12 seasons in the majors, hitting 294/358/380.  He hit over .300 (100 game min) 5 times.  His best season was 1992 when he hit 323/393/432 with 44 steals.  He was an All-Star that year and was also 8th in MVP voting.  Bip currently is the head coach of the Skyline High School baseball team and is a co-host on the Giants pre-game shows.


9.  Shane Victorino, 26.9 WAR:  The Flyin' Hawaiian was a long time Phillie and is now a member of the Red Sox.  Originally drafted by the Dodgers, he was actually selected two separate times in the Rule 5 draft.  He was taken in 2002 by the Padres, but was returned in May to the Dodgers, but then he was selected by the Phillies in 2004.  From 2006 to 2012 he was a part of the Phillies' outfield.  He is a career 276/340/428 hitter and has 210 career steals and 93 career homers.  He has three gold gloves, two All-Star appearances and has led the league in triples twice.   

Just incredible.

8.  Willie Hernandez 16.6 WAR: Three time All-Star and 1984 Cy Young award winner.  He was drafted in 1973 and taken by the Cubs in the 1976 Rule 5 Draft.  He played 13 years and had 744 appearances, compiling a 3.38 career ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  He had the fro, the stache, the glasses...awesome.

7.  Darrell Evans, 58.5 WAR:  This one feels kind of like cheating because it was the 1968 Rule 5 draft which I don't think is much like today's version, so I'll just have Darrell here at #7.  414 career homeruns, including eclipsing 40 twice.  He and Reggie Jackson are the only players with 100+ homers for 3 different teams.  At age 38 he was the oldest player ever to lead the league in homers with 40. 
 
6.  Dan Uggla, 20.5 WAR:  Last season was the first year that Uggla didn't hit 20 homers as a pro.  Sure, he's a stone hands at 2B and strikes out like he gets a dollar for each one, but he is one of the most prolific home run hitters among second baseman.  He's a three time All-Star, and he's led the league in errors at 2B three times.  He also lifts. 

Best. Contract. Ever.

5.  Bobby Bonilla, 30.1 WAR: Bobby-Bo was a 6 time All-Star and a part of the Pittsburgh Pirates teams with Barry Bonds that were so successful, but never won a title.  Although he did win a ring in 1997 with the Marlins.  Bonilla is still getting paid by the Mets in one of the weirdest contracts ever.  Bonilla was actually originally drafted by the Pirates, but then the White Sox took him in the 1985 Rule 5 Draft.  Pittsburgh ended up trading Jose DeLeon to the White Sox to get Bonilla back.  For four straight seasons Bonilla was in MVP voting, finishing second to Bonds in 1990 and third in 1991 (Pendleton, Bonds).  He hit 20+ homers 7 times, and was a career 279/358/472 hitter.  

4.  George Bell, 20.1 WAR:  Nabbed by the Jays from the Phillies in 1980.  Bell was a 3 time All-Star and won the 1987 MVP award by hitting 47 homers and driving in 134 runs..  He gets a massive WAR downgrade because of his defense (-9.8), which kind of sucks.  Bell was a career 278/316/469 hitter and walloped 265 home runs.  His career went in the toilet fast as he was out of the league at age 33 -- makes you wonder if the Dominican born Bell was really 21 when he got his start. 

3.  Jose Bautista  22 WAR:  Let's face it, nobody wanted Joey Bats early in his career.  He was drafted by the Pirates in 2000, then taken by the Orioles in the 2003 Rule 5 draft.  Then he was waived in 2004 by the O's and the Rays picked him up.  The Royals purchased him after that, then traded him to the Mets for something called Justin Huber.  Then in 2004 the Mets traded him and Ty Wigginton to the Pirates for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger.  In 2008 the Pirates traded him to the Blue Jays for a player to be named later.  That player, Robinzon Diaz is now a 29 year old minor leaguer for the Brewers.

Since joining the Blue Jays, Bautista has been an All-Star each of the past 4 seasons (including this year).  He led the league in homers in 2010 and 2011, hitting a combined 97 homers over that span.  After dealing with a wrist sheath injury in 2012, he's back for more in 2013 with 20 homers and counting nearing the All-Star break.

Who wants body shots?

2.  Josh Hamilton  24.8 WAR: The 1999 #1 overall pick of the Rays was destined for stardom until he fell in love with crack rocks.  In 2006, the Cubs took Hamilton for the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for cash (not crack).  In 2007 Hamilton was every bit the superstar that many expected, hitting 292/368/554 in half a season.  The Reds promptly flipped him to the Rangers for Edinson Volquez.  Volquez had a great first year for the Reds, but ended up winning just 30 games over parts of 4 years for them.

Hamilton really took off for the Rangers with All-Star appearance in all five of his years in Arlington.  He led them to the World Series in 2010 and 2011.  He also was MVP in 2010 with a 359/411/633 line and 32 homers and 100 RBI.  In 2012, his last year as a Ranger, he hit 285/354/477 with 43 homers and 128 RBI.

1.  Johan Santana, 50.7 WAR:  Johan tops the list...for now.  I think Bautista and maybe Hamilton could potentially get the top spot as their careers progress as it seems Johan has nothing left in the tank.  In 1999, the Marlins took Santana from the Astros in the Rule 5 draft and traded him for Jared Camp to the Twins.  Johan didn't do well in his first season with the Twins, posting a 1.82 WHIP and 6.49 ERA in 86 innings.  In fact, it wasn't until 2002 that he started coming into his own.  In '02 and '03 he split time between the bullpen and the rotation and had 306 Ks in 266 innings with good peripherals.  By the end of 2003 he was already on his way to being the best starter in baseball and was actually 7th in Cy Young voting for going 12-3 over 158 innings.  Over the next 4 years Santana collected two Cy Young Awards and went 70-32.  As a Twin, Johan was 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.  He had one great year with the Mets and earned his 4th All-Star appearance.  Ever since then he's been like a '70 Gremlin.


There are other players from a prior versions of the Rule 5 or the first year player draft that occurred in the winter such as: Paul Blair, Rudy May and Reggie Smith that would make this list.  The rule seems to have evolved some though and players weren't nearly as well protected as they are in recent history.  Even Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente was selected in a version of this Winter draft in 1954.

Tuesday Talkies (stupid announcing, Gopher Recruiting, Steph Curry, Chris Hoiles)

It's been brought to my attention that I haven't posted since Friday, and apparently people are upset about this for some reason. So here's some things that caught my fancy:

- I want to start with something that world's worst announcer and former world's worst GM Steve Phillips said during the Mets/Braves game last night which makes me even sadder than usual that Fire Joe Morgan closed their doors. In the game the Braves beat Johan Santana and the Mets 8-3, with the NY Mets (my favorite squadron) scoring just one run while Johan was in the game. Cribbed from here for accuracy, this is what Phillips said,

[“You know, we're talking about the run support for a pitcher, and I believe that pitchers often earn their run support, and here is why. I was in the front office for 13 years, at every home game, for many of the road games up in the box, and you start to feel the pattern of the game for each of the starting pitchers.

"Over the course of time it seemed to me there the same guys started to get runs, there was a pattern and rhythm to their game and the same guys didn't get runs because of the pattern and rhythm to their game.”

Orel Hershiser then asked if Santana had a bad pattern or rhythm for an offense, and Phillips responded with this:

“I think it is the feel of his game. Whether it’s his teammates...I don't think it’s a conscious thing. Players always go, 'nah, there is no way, there is no way' but I see it, I feel it every time you watch games. They don't hit for Santana.

"I think part of it is because he is the ace on the mound. They think it’s a low-scoring game, he is not going to give up runs. It’s just this rhythm of the game that he has. Steve Traschel, used to pitch for the Mets, the slowest worker ever. He never got run support. and I think he earned it.”]

What. The. Hell. It boggles the mind that someone who is not only an announcer, but also once held a position of making the most important decisions for his team, could actually believe this. It's the kind of thing that I expect Dawger to try to sell.

Perhaps, just perhaps, Santana's Mets teammates have run up against some very good pitchers so far this year in Johan's starts. In his seven starts - and in case you aren't paying attention he's 4-2 with a 0.78 ERA in those seven starts - the Mets have scored 3, 1, 3, 4, 1, 1, and 2 runs; not very much. Santana's opponents have been Aaron Harang (season ERA: 2.93), Josh Johnson twice (2.34), Yovani Gallardo (3.09), Scott Olsen (7.00), Chan Ho Park (6.67), and Derek Lowe (3.80). Five of his seven opponents are better than league average, with four of those starts coming from guys who are in the top 13 in the NL in ERA.

In conclusion, Steve Phillips, yes the same guy who traded prospect Melvin Mora (1,121 hits since and counting) for a washed-up Mike Bordick (50 hits for the half-year, then resigned with Baltimore in the offseason) is a complete idiot and should probably die.

- High school hoops was in town this past weekend with the Sabes Invitational in Minneapolis. I didn't attend, of course, because I'm not a weirdo, but luckily the internet does a good job of summarizing these bits.

There were a lot of players of major interest in town for this thing, including Harrison Barnes and Chad Calcaterra - Gopher targets I've written about before - as well as Rickey Kreklow, Jacob Thomas, Ricky Kreklow, and Alex Kirk, all of whom are also on the radar.

Barnes is the jewel of the group, ranked #4 on Rivals150, and still has the Gophers' in the mix as he cut down to his top 12. Obviously he's not that good, since his team lost it's first two games, but I suppose I'd still take him on the Gophers. I read somewhere that since he had extra time after being bounced he made it up to campus to check out the U. I'm hoping he got the Jesus Shuttlesworth treatment.


The other guy I've written about before is Chad Calcaterra, who I think I said I was worried could be another Kevin Loge or Kyle Sanden, mainly based on the other schools chasing him. The reviews from the weekend sound pretty good, however. They praise Calcaterra's defensive effort, saying he totally dominated in the paint, and also talked up his ability to get out and run on the break as well as scoring both inside and out. I'm sold. Another reason to trust Tubby.

Speaking of trusting Tubby, that's a big reason I'm not sold on Columbia Heights guard Jacob Thomas. He's known as one of the best shooters in the entrie Midwest for the class of 2010, but he's still waiting on his first offer - from anybody. He's also made it clear that his dream is to play for the Gophers, but even so, Tubby is like "meh." I don't know. The reviews from the weekend are very positive and say he looks like he can score (and he dueled Bradley Beal, a class of 2011 guard with offers from Florida and Kansas already, to a standstill) but then where is Tubby on this? Like I said, I trust Tubby.

The guy I hadn't heard of who I am very intrigued by now is SG Ricky Kreklow, a 6-5 wing from Missouri. He has offers from Missouri and a handful of Missouri Valley teams, but Tubby is showing some interest and had Kreklow up to campus for an official visit this weekend, and has since said if Tubby extends an offer the Gophers would instantly be in his top two or three choices (with Missouri and Creighton). Kreklow is an awesome shooter, which always makes my pants tight, and was also called the best passer at the event. He sounds like the kind of kid who might be lightly recruited because of physical attributes (size/strength + he's white), but just gets it done with a great feel for the game. With my Eric Bledsoe crush no longer in play, I think Kreklow might be my new wishlist guy.

Lastly is Alex Kirk, a 6-10 center from New Mexico. Kirk hasn't received an offer from Minnesota, but he's on their radar. Right now his best offers are from the Pac 10 (Cal, Wash, USC), with a handful of lesser teams trying to grab him as well. I'm not overly impressed with what I've read, and it sounds like Kirk had only one good game out of three this weekend, spending large chunks of the other two on the bench against more athletic teams. Plus, he's a ginger, so we don't want him.


- Doug Gottlieb is usually a moron, but he finally gets something right with this Stephen Curry article about how his skills might not transfer to the NBA. Well no shit. I just can't figure out why the national media as a whole doesn't see it, and instead keeps trying to linguistically hump him. Doesn't blow by defenders off the dribble. Isn't big enough to shoot over NBA defenders. Can't play defense against quick guards. Doesn't fit into a clearly defined role at the next level. Too small for a 2, yet doesn't have PG skills. Jesus christ the more I type about this guy the more and more I get convinced he's going to be a Timberwolf in the future. He and Corey Brewer can sit on the bench together and talk about how awesome they were in college and how they just can't fit in and keep up at the NBA level.

- Patrick Patterson has withdrawn his name from the NBA draft, and holy god is Kentucky going to be absolutely loaded next year, and with a much better game coach in John Calipari as well. Patterson was the fourth leading scorer and third leading rebounder in the SEC last year, and he will be joined by a recruiting class that is ranked as the #1 class in the country, and contains Rivals #2, #22, #23, and #40 along with a big-time JuCo recruit, and they are spread all over the floor, from the paint to the wing to the point. Even scarier? They might be getting even more. #1 recruit in the country John Wall is still unsigned and has Kentucky as one of his finalists, and Jodie Meeks - last season's top scorer in the conference - may still pull his name out of the NBA draft. Make no mistake, Kentucky is back in a big, big way.

- If you're into this kind of thing, here's a stupid little puff piece on the Twins from ESPN's Tim Kurkijan - normally a writer I like. If you've read this blog for any length of time, you know I think chemistry in baseball and "good clubhouse guys" is the biggest crock of crap since the moon landing (obviously faked). Seriously, the article is so sugary sweet I got a stomach ache. Plus, Cuddybear is the central figure in most of it, so that ought to make a bunch of people around here pretty happy.

- Lastly, I think Chris Hoiles is the leader for the guy I'm going to sponsor when my Scott Stahoviak sponsorship runs out. You probably had to be a fan of Tony LaRussa baseball II in order to truly get it. That was the game when we (me, Snacks, and Bear) had some truly epic seasons when we were growing up, and Hoiles was a central figure. He was a good catcher, but the best was every player had a picture, and it was clear that the day they took those pictures Hoiles showed up either massively hungover or still drunk. He had bloodshot, glassy eyes, was completely unshaven, and his hat was cocked sideways and barely on his head. Truly a trainwreck.

But even better, and nobody really knows this, but Hoiles had an epically great season in 1993. Yes, G-R-E-A-T.

He hit .310/.416/.585 with 29 home runs in 503 plate appearances.

That .310 was 11th in the league, and 15th best by any catcher from 1980-2000.

His .416 OBP was 5th in the league, and 25th best by a catcher ever (like in all-time).

The slugging pct. of .585 he put up was also 5th in the league, and is the TENTH BEST IN THE HISTORY OF CATCHERS HITTING THE BALL. I'm not making this up.

Put together that OBP and SLG for the OPS, and he was fourth in the league that year and SEVENTH all-time by a catcher, behind seasons by all-time greats Mike Piazza (three of the six better), Bill Dickey, Gabby Hartnett, and Roy Campanella. It boggles the mind.

His 29 home runs in 419 at bats works out to one homer every 14.4 at bats, a rate that ranked him fourth that season, and is 18th best in the history of catching.

Oh, and he also threw out 46 of 113 attempted base stealers that year, or 41% (lg avg = 36%), while allowing just two passed balls all year.

Seriously, we are talking a truly awesome, awesome season. He was really hurt by only knocking in 82 runs that year, since the media and other slack-jawed cretins are wowed by a stat that relies more on opportunity than ability, but still finished 16th in the MVP voting. Looking at pure batting stats, he should have been fourth behind John Olerud, Frank Thomas, and Ken Griffey. And somehow, nobody knows this because it's Chris Hoiles.

Sadly, I can't locate that actual picture from Tony 2, but he looks pretty drunk in this one too. Just imagine him 58% more intoxicated, and not exactly sure where he is or what's going on.

Mid Season Twins Talkie

Before I get into the Twins stuff, first let me congratulate Josh Hamilton on winning last night's homerun derby. What a tremendous....what? Oh, right, Justin Morneau won. You wouldn't have known it from the media coverage. Look, I get that Hamilton put on a show for the ages in round one, and it really was incredible. If that was the reason for the Favre-like gushing I would understand. But enough already about the "Josh Hamilton Story." We know it. We get it. We're getting sick of it. Just talk about what an amazing year he is having and drop the Movie of the Week stuff (note: there WILL be a movie at some point here.) I want to hear about his run for the AL triple crown, not about how "The demons he has faced make facing the ghosts of Yankee Stadium easy", a quote actually said last night. Let's move on.

A quick look at the Twins at the season's mid-point (ok, all-star break, close enough):

The M&M Boys: I really hate this moniker for Mauer and Morneau, but it seems to have stuck and I suppose it is fitting, seeing as their last names both start with M. The boys have obviously had a strong season, both making the all-star team, and I'm not sure how much more you could ask of either of them. They rank #2 and #3 in the AL in batting average with nearly identical .323 and .322. Expected of Mauer, a nice surprise from Morneau who is hitting a lot more line drives this season. Morneau's homeruns are down a bit, but his doubles and slugging percentage are up and his walks and OBP are way up, so I see no reason to complain. Now that I've made peace with Mauer's lack of power, I can really appreciate his game, although Charley Walters claims he could hit 30 a year with a minor swing adjustment, which seems totally realistic and not made up crap at all. High average and high OBP, he'd actually be an excellent lead-off or 2 hitter, but on this team has to hit third. In any case, he's having a tremendous season, as a 140 OPS+ from the catcher position is truly exceptional.

The Young Pitchers: This, without question, is my favorite part of this team. In contention with what I'm going to assume without looking anything up is the youngest group of four pitchers in the rotation, all doing well and looking like they have extremely bright futures. Perkins is the shakiest of the group, and he gets hit pretty hard at times, but his excellent control helps mitigate a lot of the damage. Slowey is the one who I was the least sold on going into the season, but he looks extremely strong lately and leads the team in WHIP despite having the highest ERA of the four. He's still prone to meltdowns, but as with most young pitchers you take the good with the bad. Baker and Blackburn are both looking really, really good. Not just the numbers, which are outstanding, but the way they handle themselves on the mound and seem in control at all times both make me believe they will have long, successful careers with other teams once their initial contracts are up. With Liriano starting to come around, the rotation could be one of the best in baseball next year from top-to-bottom. (Is that homerish? I'm a delusional? Tell me if I am.)

The Bullpen: Nathan has been awesome and practically unhittable, but the rest of the bullpen has been pretty blah since Neshek went down. Crain is back and trying to fill that role, but has been mediocre at best. The top bullpen arms this year have been Reyes, Breslow, and Korecky in their limited work. Reyes is a specialist, so I get that, but why not use Breslow and Korecky instead of trotting Guerrier and Bass out there every game? Bass is first in relief innings in the AL and Guerrier is seventh. Guerrier has been ok, but Bass is brutally bad. His ERA is bad. His WHIP is bad. His walk rate is bad. His homerun rate is bad. His strikeout rate is bad. But he leads the AL in relief innings, and not just mop up innings where he started, he's now being used in high impact situations. This does not bode well.

Free Agent Accusations: I don't even want to look here. Out of the three hitters they signed, Craig Monroe is the best pick up and he's hitting .203/.280/.419. At least he has a little pop. Lamb and Everett's sluggin percentages of .292 and .324 beat only Glen Perkins on the team - even all the other pitchers have managed to outslug those two children. OBP is only slighly better, as Everett is still at the bottom but Lamb manages to climb just above Kevin Slowey and someone named Howie Clark.

As far as Livan, well, they got him to be an innings eater and that's exactly what he is. That would actually be pretty useful if this team was as bad as expected, but they aren't, they're contending. He needs to go away someone or other. Nobody would trade for him and his $5 million, so he just needs to be released. I'm not sure what kind of financial impact that would have, but he's not doing the team any good, so as soon as they figure out a viable fifth starter he needs to gone. Here's a prediction for you, the Twins call up Liriano right at the trade deadline and there is at least one quote rationalizing their lack of making an actual trade that goes something like this, "We get Liriano back, which is as good as making a trade."

The Garza Trade: Garza continues to look like a top prospect for the Rays, and has started to make some major strides, while Bartlett has taken a step backwards offensively. For our beloved Twins, Brendan Harris has been less of an offensive threat than advertised taking a step back in average, OBP, and slugging, but has been a decent surprise in the field. He's still more of a 2b/3b type than an actual shortstop, but hasn't been terrible.

As far as Delmon Young goes, I'm backing off on my "he sucks" opinion slightly. I heard on the radio the other day someone talking about maybe trying to trade Young while he still has some value - let's not get crazy just yet. As others have told me, he's just 22. His power loss is still something of a mystery, but he seems to be getting smarter at the plate and showing more discipline (not much, but some) and will walk more this year than last (with 21 walks now compared to 26 all of last season). I still think he has potential and I still think he's a terrible fielder, but I'm no longer totally down on him. I don't think he's going to end up being particularly special, and right now I think the Twins got the bad end of the trade, but hopefully he can develop further. And in case you're wondering, Eduardo Morlan is having a bit of a down year in AA for the Rays, but is still a top young relief prospect. Jason Pridie will never be anything more than a fifth outfielder at best.

The Santana Trade: Johan continues to be strong over in the NL, fourth in ERA, seventh in strikeouts, and ninth in WHIP. If his second half surge continues again this year, he'll be in the Cy Young discussion once again.

Meanwhile, Carlos Gomez needs to be in triple A, Deolis Guerra is struggling in high A, while Mulvey and Humber are ho-hum in triple A (actually Humber pretty much sucks). All of these guys have the tools to still develop into quality players, but as of right now, it's pretty clear who won this trade. Gomez is reallly overmatched right now.

The Call-Ups: It's pretty clear that the biggest boost this team has gotten outside of the performance of the young staff is from the call-ups. Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, and Brian Buscher are all hitting over .300 and have an OPS over .747. Even Matt Tolbert and Matt Macri performed well before getting hurt. Span and Casilla both show signs that they've figured it out and could keep playing well the rest of the season (not at the rate they are now, but still good). A big, big key to how far the Twins can go the rest of the year.

The Returnees: Cuddyer has been hurt most of the year, and when he eventually comes back the Twins are going to have some tough decisions to make with the outfield/DH position. Look again for some quote about how getting Cuddyer back is as good as making a trade, even though he hasn't look very good when he has played. Jason Kubel has made some strides, and is giving a glimpse of what he can be - which is Matt Stairs. He clearly has a place, and it's not in the outfield, but he could be a quality full-time DH. He's not the hitter he once was before all his knees fell off, but still - Matt Stairs isn't too bad. We like to call him a "professional hitter."

Overall: The season has been a huge shocker to me. I figured this was a full on rebuilding year, and that's why I didn't understand why they bothered to sign Nathan instead of trading him at this year's deadline. Now it looks like the Twins should be buyers rather than sellers, and get Adrian Beltre and another arm so they can get rid of Livan. They are in it this year due to good pitching (which should continue) and amazingly timely hitting (which shouldn't). If they want to make a run, they need to make a move or two. It's been fun, but let's hope they go for more.

Twins stuff

A couple quick Twins' related notes following the 27-2 stomping at the hands of the Tigers.

- Was in the car and heard Henry Lake and some dude discussing who was the better pitcher, Johan Santana or Nick Blackburn, based on Blackburn's 3.55 ERA vs. Santana's 3.36. Well, first off, Santana's ERA is better, so I don't understand where this discussion is coming from. Secondly, although I get the whole thing like how this is a homer rationalization thing to make the loss of Santana feel better, but stop being so stupid. Nobody should be allowed to talk about the Twins on that station because they are all idiots. I'm going to start my own show. For the record

ERA: 3.36 to 3.55, Santana
WHIP: 1.18 to 1.41, Santana
OAVG: .253 to .304, Santana
K/9: 7.8 to 4.8, Santana
Wins: 5 to 4, Santana
BB/9: 1.6 to 2.0, Blackburn
HR/9: 0.57 to 1.48, Blackburn

Not really even close to being close.

- If you were like me yesterday, you were like, "Who the hell are Howie Clark and Matt Macri?" So I looked.

Clark was drafted in 1992 by the Orioles (yes, 1992) and took ten years in the minors before getting his first call up by the O's. Since then he's bounced around in the O's and Blue Jays systems, spending the majority of his time in the minors with a call up here and there, topping out with 115 ABs in 2004 with the Jays. He was signed to a minor league deal by the Twins this offseason, and was cited in the Mitchell Report as a steroid user. So the Twins called up a 33 year old career minor leaguer who could only muster a career minor league OPS of .761 while on Steroids. Even better, he's the dude who let a popup drop last season after A-Rod yelled "Mine" while running the bases. The Twins are clearly moving in the right direction. At least his middle name is Roddy.

Last night was Macri's debut after coming over from the Rockies last season. He was the dude the Twins picked up for Ramon Oriz, so any production out of him would be a bonus. He was originally a fifth round draft pick, so he has some potential, and was a pretty solid minor league bat in his five minor league seasons, usually hitting close to .300 with a good batting eye and some decent pop. I'm much more optimistic about his chances as the utility infielder than Punto's.

News y Notes

Rodney Williams and Royce White: Yes, I'm lumping them together. It's their fault for being so similar and for playing on the same AAU team. Anyway, the Howard Pulley team travelled to Kansas this weekend for a tournament, and here's a couple of reviews from two different Scout writers on both of them from Friday night's game:

Rodney Williams, SG, Howard Pulley – Indiana Elite quickly found out what Williams does best -- dunk the ball. The 6-foot-4 wing attacked the basket and threw down dunk after dunk. To go with his incredible hops, Williams showed improvement on his jumper by knocking down a handful of three pointers. He went for 27 points in a close win over Indy Elite.

Rodney Williams - Those who have seen him play before have thrown out the theory that the springy 6-6 wing from the Minneapolis area is the top run and jump athlete in the class of 2009, those who saw him in action Friday night won’t disagree. After signing a few pre-game autographs, the slender wing came out and hit a deep three before beginning his assault on the rims. He dunked off the drive, he dunked in peoples faces and he dunked in transition. When he wasn’t dunking, he sported a much improved handle and more aggressive attitude which is a great sign.

Royce White, PF, Howard Pulley – His AAU coach said it wasn’t his best game, however we were still impressed with what White was able to get done against Indy Elite’s big men. The 6-foot-7 forward faced up defenders, knocked down threes and attacked the basket. He was aggressive the entire contest and put up 19 points.

Royce White - Fresh off of his commitment to Minnesota, White was scoring in bunches Friday night. Armed with a good jumper that he’s very capable of hitting off the bounce, he’s a 6-7 combo forward who frustrates bigger guys with his ability to score off the dribble while taking smaller guys inside to dunk on them. Brimming with confidence, he’s playing terrific ball right now and teamed with Rodney Williams to carry Howard Pulley past a tough Indiana Elite One squad.

Damn, these two are sounding better and better. Hopefully Royce can use his influence to get Rodney to sign on with the U as well. Oh, wait. I forgot Rodney had some academic issues last year. We don't want kids like that at our school. Guess we should forget it. I hear there's some white kid with a 4.0 who averages 8 points per game available though. Hopefully we can beat out Northwestern for him.

Verdell Jones: More on the recruiting front, Verdell Jones cancelled a scheduled visit to the U of Arizona this weekend, despite receiving a scholarship offer from them following the departure of Jerryd Bayless. Standing in the way is incoming freshman Brandon Jennings, the number one PG recruit in the country, and if his play in the McDonald's game was any indication, a hell of a player. Jones is expected to announce his decision Monday, and according to Scout, Minnesota is "the prohibitive favorite." Sounds good. Bring him aboard.

Delmon Young: As if in response to my post yesterday about how much he sucks, Delmon went ahead and 2-5 to show me how good he is. Not so fast. His hits were a seeing eye groundball between third and short and another ground ball back up the middle that the Detroit pitcher couldn't handle. Yes, two more groundballs. His outs? Two more groundouts and a strikeout. Four balls put into play, four balls on the ground. Pay attention to this next time you watch a Twins game. It's crazy. Speaking of the Twins, we were linked by AaronGleeman.com, the best Twins blog on the interweb. If you haven't checked it out, do so now.

Francisco Liriano: Liriano made his first start down in Rochester on Wednesday, and it's not good. Not good at all. He only went 4 and 1/3, giving up four earned runs to go along with five hits and a red-light flashing five walks. According to the radio, he threw 94 total pitches, just 51 for strikes. He's basically lost not only a lot of his velocity and pitch movement, but now his command of the strike zone. I'm afraid his confidence is shot and at this point he's afraid to throw strikes, thanks in large part to him being rushed back to the majors way to early. In this article at mlb.com they have some quotes from Liriano which make it clear that he is happy to be back in AAA, and I'm not sure how I feel about that. Even worse was this quote from Francisco, "I don't know what I'm doing." Yikes. I'm still holding out hope he can make it back to at least be a serviceable starter. To say I'm concerned right now would be putting it mildly.

Johan Santana: Wondering how Johan is faring over in the NL. I'll admit, I haven't been paying as much attention as I thought I would, even though he is on the Sidler and I's fantasy team. He's just 3-2, which, to the crowd that evaluates pitchers based on wins and losses isn't that great, but some of his other stats are looking very strong, including a 3.12 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. He's still struggling with the long ball, sitting at 1.56 HR/9 this season, the worst of his career. He's been able to have such a low WHIP due to a really low BB/9 of 1.79 - which would be the second lowest of his career - and a low OAVG of .203. I'm guessing he'll fade a bit based on the lowest K-rate of his career (8.7 per 9) and an absurdly low .227 BABIP (batting average balls in play) which will likely go up. Although he's getting 47% of the balls hit against him on the ground, versus a career total of 38%, so maybe he's just turned over a new leaf. In any case, he's awesome and I miss him so much it hurts sometimes.

Kyle Lohse: Speaking of former Twins who are dominating the NL, how about this guy with the Cardinals? In six starts he's 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Other than his low strikeout rate, everything else looks good. Can he keep it up? I doubt it, but just looking at the stats, it's scarily possible.

Dylan Hale: Lastly, I wanted to mention this guy. A commentor mentioned him in a couple of different posts, and I hadn't heard of him, so I figured I'd look him up. He plays for St Paul Central, and Rivals doesn't even have him in their database while Scout has him as a 1-star SG, with no other info. They don't even have his height and weight listed. Looking at Maxpreps, he is 6-2, and averged 17 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals per game last season as a junior, which included a 39 point outburst against Arlington, whatever that is. On the season he shot 60% from the floor, including 57% from three. Since he's not really on the recruiting radar right now, there isn't a whole lot of info on him, but what I can find makes it clear he's a big-time shooter with great range. I have no idea if he's D-I material or not, but I'll be watching for his name.

Twins = World Series Bound (and some Basketball)

First off, I added three new blogs to the link list over on the right. The National Anthem before a Cubs Game (TNABACG), a general Minnesota sports blog, and Aaron Gleeman and Stick and Ball Guy - two Twins blogs. Check them out. Additionally, I'm going to try to recap as many Twins games as I can, and certainly which ever ones I get a chance to watch - although with a kid on the way in the next few weeks and a new job, who knows if I'll have time. Hopefully Dawg and Sidler will post plenty of Twins related material for your amusement.

Livan Hernandez: According to Bert, "Livan Hernandez isn't like Johan Santana, he has to change speeds to be successful." Wasn't Santana's out pitch his changeup? Thanks again for all your wisdom, Bert. That's probably why you aren't in the hall of fame, jackass. Anyway, Hernandez was beautiful last night. Kept the ball down, didn't walk anybody, pretty much made the Angels hit his pitches on the ground, and gave up just two runs in his seven innings. I doubt he can keep this up all year, but nice start to be sure.

Carlos Gomez: Granted it's just one game, but he really impressed me. And I'm not even talking about the double, the bunt hit (holy crap is this kid fast), or the two steals. He showed a lot of patience at the plate, not only by drawing a walk but even in his strikeout at bat he drew the count out to 3-2. That was my big knock on the kid, but if he's figured out how to be a little more patient (not quite Rickey Henderson, which was another Bert comment last night) he could be deadly up there already. He's going to be a fan favorite in a hurry.

Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan: Good to know that if the Twins can get to the eighth with a lead, they have a very good chance of winning as these two were lights out once again. They each gave up a hit (Neshek's was a bloop that will be caught in the future as the left side of the defense gets used to each other and the dome) and struck out four between them, including a big Neshek K of Vlad Guerrero.

Torii Hunter: It was nice to see Hunter get a standing ovation. For all about him that drove me crazy, I can't deny his heart, effort, leadership, or charisma and what he meant to this franchise over the years. Of course, it was even nicer to see him strikeout in a close game in the ninth.

Johan Santana: Naturally, Santana rolled through his first NL start, going seven and giving up 3 hits with 8 K's. He's really good.


A couple quick basketball items:

1. There is a new ESPN Top 100 out. In it, Rodney Williams comes in at 66 and Royce White at 71. Fellow Gopher target DaShonte Riley is ranked #54.

2. Speaking of Royce, in case you missed it, he's transferring to Hopkins. He'll be joining top recruits Raymond Cowles, Trent Locket, and Mike Broghammer on a loaded Royals team that will surely be the top team in the State. Hopefully Royce can pull his act together and make the most of this opportunity.

3. Former UCLA Bruin J.R. Henderson is dominating in the Japanese league, and has become a full-fledged Japanese citizen, including changing his name to J.R. Sakuragi. His real first name is Milton. So he's now Milton Sakuragi. Must be odd to walk around Japan being 6-9, what with all the 5-2 people and ninjas and all.

W's Baseball Predictions

Baseball season is upon us, and, since baseball is the second best season of them all behind college basketball, I may as well share some predictions for the upcoming year as I watch opening day from the comfort of my couch (FYI - if you have Direct TV there's a free preview of the baseball package this week). Some of this is Twins-related, and some just MLB related overall. Have no fear, a full Final Four preview will be up soon enough.

1. As Sidler already touched on, Joe Mauer will struggle to knock in runs this year. If Gardy is smart, he will hit Mauer second where he belongs. With Mauer's lack of home run power, and Carlos "Pedro" Gomez and Adam Everett the two guys in front of him in the lineup, he'll struggle to get to 65 rbi, much less the 80 that Snacks foolishly predicted. I think he'll have a solid year, .300 - .310 range, with 25-30 doubles and around ten homeruns, but there's no way he's getting to 80 rbi.

2. Delmon Young will take a step forward, especially power wise. Young hit well last year, .288/.316/.408 with 13 home runs, and I expect him to improve. I like to believe the experience he got last year will lend itself to more patience, or at least I hope to go so. And his .408 slugging last year was the worst he had put up at any level. With a full year under his belt, hopefully he's figured out major league pitching, and not vice-versa. I am cautiously optimistic we'll see .300/.350/.500 with 20-25 home runs.

3. At the same time Young improves, I expect Morneau and Cuddyer to slide backwards further, and not just because of their new fat contracts. Nobody seems to be talking about how far Morneau slid last year. Batting average down 50 points, obp down 30 points, and slugging down almost 70 points. The one thing that makes me think he may recover is that his strikeout rate remained the same while his walk rate went up. Still, I expect him to slide and don't think he'll get to even 30 home runs this year. Cuddyer isn't as big a concern, despite a down year last year because in general his numbers were about the same other than slugging, and he actually cut down on his strikeouts. That being said, don't expect a return to his form from two years ago. I don't expect him to get to 20 home runs, or hit over .270.

4. Twins outlook: Not good. All the offensive uncertainty from the "stars", not even looking at the black holes on offense at third, short, second, center field, and possibly DH, leave the Twins unable to score runs. Looking at a confusing mishmash of a rotation leaves an even worse feeling. If you remember, The Sidler compiled some projections for the rotation and it looked like this:



Ouch. And that even seems optimistic on some of those guys. Livan is going to be a disaster. Bonser is a 4/5 starter at best. Slowey is going to get ripped to shreds in the big leagues. Maybe Blackburn can pitch. I've never seen him throw, so he's my only hope. Baker is the only one I have any faith in becoming an even league average starter, Liriano excepted. Who knows what happens with him. He seemed to be coming along this spring, and I think it was a good move to start him in the minors. I'm predicting (hoping) he gets called up around June/July and is able to at least approach his former form.

5. What does this uncertain offense + mishmash rotation mean, combined with a solid bullpen and a step down in defense? Dead last in the AL central, even behind the Royals. Would be the worst team in the entire American League, except that the Orioles are in an even bigger mess, and just getting worse.

6. Torii Hunter will be average. There are a lot of reasons to predict Hunter to have a bad year, chief among which is that I don't like him. Additionally, his walk rate plummeted from bad to really bad last year. There are good reasons to predict a good year for him, coming off two really excellent years and going to a team with a much, much, much better offense that the Twins. I expect him to have a career high in RBIs due to greater opportunity, but his numbers will go down overall. Somewhere in the .270/.333/.470 range with around 20 home runs or so.

7. In contrast to his ex-teammate, Johan Santana is going to rock the national league to Dwight Goodien levels. I know most of his numbers moved the wrong way the last couple of years, but he's in the National League now. Not only is there a free out with the pitcher, much like the Twins have in their lineup with Adam Everett, but the NL is the worse league of the two. Plus it helps being on the Mets and not having to face them. I expect him to shred the league, with an ERA in the mid-2's, a WHIP of about 1.00, and a K/9 of 9-10. Seriously. And he'll probably hit .275 to boot.

8. A Yankee collapse begins. Think about it, other than A-Rod, who is awesome, Cano, who might be the best 2b in the AL, and Jeter, who is gay, there are question marks everywhere on the Yankees roster. Posada absolutely busted through what he should have done last year, and will likely regress to the mean like a mofo. Johnny Damon's numbers have been in major declines for the last few years, including losing 90 points off his slugging last year, and posted a OPS+ of 97 (league average player = 100), and most 35 year olds don't reverse this trend. Bobby Fatbreu is in basically the exact same boat, except he hasn't plummeted quite as far just yet. Melky Cabrera's upside is basically an average major league outfielder. The Jason Giambi/Shelley Duncan 1B combo is a joke, and Hideki Matsui is coming off knee surgery and his worst season at 34 years old.

Even more, the rotation is going to be a suckfest. Chien-Ming Wang has been a very good pitcher the last two years, and could very well continue, but he outperforms his metrics every year and could be due to collapse (Baseball Prospectus gives a collapse a 34% probability). Pettitte is the only other decent pitcher on that team, and he's starting the year on the DL. As much as it pains me to say it, as I am a huge fan, Mike Mussina might be done. The back of the rotation is two kids, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, who are supposed to have a ton of talent, but so did David West, Todd Van Poppel, and Brien Taylor. The bullpen is basically Rivera and Chamberlain, and I don't see anyway Chamberlain can be moved into the rotation when their third best guy is LaTroy Hawkins.

In store is a very bad year by Yankee standards, which will lead to a freakout by the younger Steinbrenners, anxious to make a name for themselves and get out from daddy's shadow. They will sell off the very same talent they refused to give up for Johan this past offseason for much lesser talent (expect Adam Dunn and/or Rich Harden to be Yankees). This will cause the same cycle the Yanks were stuck in during the early nineties and lead to more suckitude. You heard it here first.

9. The Indians will miss the playoffs due to Sabathia and Carmona spending too much time on the DL. Sabathia threw 198, 188, 197, and 192 innings the four years prior to throwing 257 last year. Carmona went from 102 innings two years ago to 230 last year. That means injuries, and that means no playoffs for the Tribe.

10. Others who will suck: Mike Lowell, Kaz Matsui, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Manny Corpas, Gary Sheffield, John Lackey, Andruw Jones, Ryan Braun, Brett Myers, Jason Bay, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Pena, Alex Rios

11. Others who will rock: Justin Verlander, Micah Owings, Jeff Francoeur, Erik Bedard, Clay Buchholz, Geovany Soto, Nick Swisher, Homer Bailey, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzski, Wandy Rodriguez, Billy Butler, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Takashi Saito, David Wright, Cole Hamels, Matt Capps, Tim Lincecum, BJ Upton, Vernon Wells, Dustin McGowan, Jason Bergmann

12. AL Playoff Teams: Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, Toronto

13. NL Playoff Teams: New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia

14. World Series: Mets over Tigers

15. MVPs: Ryan Howard, Vlad Guerrero

16. CY YOUNGS: Johan Santana, Justin Verlander

17. Rookies of the Year: Evan Longoria, Matt Kemp

Santana vs. Bedard

Someone somewhere on this stupid blog asked about a breakdown of the Santana trade vs. the Bedard trade. Since I have nothing better to do this afternoon, and there isn't any basketball on until Duke/Wake at 6:30, I'll see what I can do.

SANTANA vs. BEDARD:

They are both 28, actually being born only 8 days apart, so age is no factor. Santana has been one of the best pitchers in the majors, if not the best, for the past five years. Bedard made a major leap into the upper tier of pitchers this season, after steadily improving for the past four seasons, lowering all his metrics year vs. year for that period, topping out with a 3.16 ERA (146 ERA+), .212 OAV, and 11 K's per nine. Compare that to Santana's 3.33 (130), .225 OAV and 10 Ks per. Add in Johan atrocious HR rate this season, and Bedard may have had a better year - although Santana pitched more innings, 219 vs. 182.

This was clearly Johan's worst season since becoming a full-time starter, and he still finished fifth in Cy Young voting, while it was Bedard's best season, and he tied Johan for fifth. Looking at the contracts they signed after the trades, where Bedard went for 1 year at $7 million and Johan went for 6 years, $137 million, Johan is prohibitively more expensive. Johan had a no trade clause, while Bedard did not. I didn't really get this at first, but after looking into it, it appears there are many reasons why Bedard would be more attractive to certain teams. Of course, if they aren't able to hammer out a long term deal with Bedard, it becomes a very costly trade on their end. Bedard should get somewhere in the $100 million range, so certainly not cheap, but not Johan money and he could end up being every bit as good for the rest of their careers. But I doubt it.

CENTERPIECES:

OF Carlos Gomez to the Twins vs. OF Adam Jones to the Orioles.

Gomez comes to the Twins and is instantly their number 1 prospect. The bad news is that he wasn't the top Mets prospect, but was #2. Adam Jones was not only the #1 prospect in the Mariners system, but was ranked the #44 prospect in the Major Leagues last season, and, if he hadn't played in the majors too much, would be in the top ten this year (Gomez is ranked 65 this season). Jones is known as a five-star, while Gomez is a four-star. Both have limited time in the majors, where Jones hit .246/.300/.400 in 65 at bats last season and Gomez hit .232/.288/.304 in 108 at bats. Similar, but in the minors Jones hit .314/.382/.586 while Gomez hit .281/.350/.423 in his last full minor league season. Hitting isn't everything, and Gomez is faster, steals more bases, and is generally known as a top flite fielder, but it's pretty clear any way you look at it that the best prospect traded in either deal was Jones.

EDIT TO ADD: I forgot to include this when I originally typed it up, but in case the previous paragraph hasn't depressed you enough, the Mariners were supposedly interested in Santana, but pulled out when the Twins asked for Jones. Great.

SECONDARY TALENT:

P Deolis Guerra to the Twins vs. P Chris Tillman.

Guerra immediately becomes the number 2 prospect in the Twins' system. Guerra dominated A ball two years ago, but had trouble adjusting to the jump up to high A. He has pitched in 23 games in high A (22 starts) lasting a total of only 97 total innings - yikes, that's awful - and last season in 21 games there had an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.17. He's generally regarded as an excellent prospect, ranking #79 in the top 100 prospects list. He's only 18 years old, and could climb the list, or flame out.

Chris Tillman ranks #44 on the list, and is similar to Guerra since he also got a bit rocked in high A ball, though scouts love him, and is only 19. He's a step ahead of Guerra, however, because Guerra has a great changeup but needs to develop other pitches, while Tillman already has an excellent fastball and curveball. That, as well as ranking 35 spots higher on the top 100 list, give the edge here to the Mariners as well.

THROW-INS:

P Phil Humber and P Kevin Mulvey to the Twins vs. P Kevin Mickolio, P Tony Butler, and P George Sherrill.

Neither Humber nor Mulvey are anything to get hyper about. Both rank as three star prospects and project to back of the rotation types. They have each had some minor league success, and will start the season most likely in AAA. I expect both to get a shot with the big club at some point, but neither will become a star. Humber is the #5 in the Twins organization, Mulvey is #8.

Mickolio and Butler are a step below Humber/Mulvey, with Butler a two-star prospect ranking 8th in the Mariners system, with Mickolio not ranked in the top 11. Butler is a big lefty who can throw 94 mph, and could develop into a star level pitcher some day. Mickolio isn't expected to be much.

At this point, it looks like the Twins win this category, but the difference is in the third pitcher, reliever George Sherrill. Sherrill is thirty, has been in the majors for four years, and certainly isn't considered a prospect. What he is, is a shut down middle reliever who really came into his own last season. In 46 innings, he allowed 28 hits while striking out 56, with an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 0.98. In 128 career innings pitched, Sherrill has allowed just 10 home runs. It may seem weird that a crappy team like the Orioles would want a middle reliever, but if they're smart, they'll turn around and deal Sherrill. If he can even come close to repeating his numbers from last season, he'll be a valuable commodity at the trade deadline and could net the O's yet another prospect.

So, in conclusion, this sucks.

Adios Johan + Site News

So it's official, Johan to the Mets, and the Twins didn't get back top prospect OF Fernando Martinez, or top young pitcher Mike Pelphrey. Superb. Not to mention no Wright and no Reyes, but I think we gave up on that bit a long time ago.

The guys they ended up getting are a solid package but not getting a marquee name like Martinez, Phil Hughes, Jon Lester, or Jacoby Ellsbury hurts.

OF Carlos Gomez has the best combination of potential and major league ready right now abilities. He was the Mets #3 prospect, and is a top flight center fielder and a very fast runner. His hitting isn't quite major league ready yet, but because of his other skills the Twins might very well try him this year. He never did hit for a very high average or take very many walks, even in the minors, but he can steal bases like a MoFo. Baseball Prospectus projects him as a .260-.280 hitter with 20-50 steals and a .700-.750 OPS each season. Sounds like the perfect throw-in to a big trade, not the freakin' center piece.

P Deolis Guerra was the Mets #2 prospect, and might be the most intriguing. He's only 18, and already has a major-league ready changeup. However his fastball is inconsistent, and he doesn't have a reliable curve as yet. He did post a 1.17 WHIP at the Mets high A league last season. He'll need to develop into something special to make this trade even close to worthwhile.

The other two pitchers, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber, were #4 and #7 in the Mets organization, but it's not clear how much upside they really have. Mulvey pitched well in the minors the past two seasons, posting a 1.07 WHIP between rookie and AA two years ago and 1.21 last season between AA and AAA. According to scouts, he has three good pitches, but no great pitch, which limits him to an upside of back of the rotation type. Hopefully, scouts are wrong. Humber used to be looked at as a #2 pitcher type, but after Tommy John surgery he's lost command of his curveball and looks to be a 4/5 type pitcher as well. Oh good. That's what we need. Two more back of the rotation guys.

I have no idea how real the Red Sox and Yankees' offers as reported by the media were. It is very possible that those were never on the table, and were just rumors. It is also very possible, that Billy Smith was trying to play them off each other, and get other teams involved, and he bluffed the wrong guys. Either Red Sox offer (Lester or Ellsbury plus others) or the Yankees offer (Hughes, Cabrera +, even without Kennedy) would have been preferable to this. The best pitcher in the game, and they get very little back. I know there were few teams willing to pony up the money, but it just seems wrong.

So here's the rotation now:
1. Francisco Liriano (IF he's back - key to the season)
2. Boof Bonser
3. Scott Baker
4. Kevin Slowey
5. Kevin Mulvey/Phil Humber

Ouch.


SITE NEWS: Starting next Wednesday, there will be a PGA post each week from our new PGA guy, looking at the weekend that was and previewing the upcoming tournament. Look for it next week.

Santana to Mets

Johan has reportedly been traded to the Mets.

No Martinez in the deal is the suck. Either Sidler or I or both will break it down in more detail later, but I have to go drink beer now.

This is Going to Suck

First of all, let's get the obvious out of the way and just state that I'm a loser before you comment-monkeys mention it. It's 11:50 on Christmas and I'm posting. Well, pregnant wife has to work at 6am tomorrow (it's a girl, FYI), so she's sleeping, and I have the day off. So I'm sitting here, drinking Captain Morgan (I know, right, it's like I'm a loser who is stuck in college so he still drinks captain), watching Superbad (again), and looking at some Santana trade information, and I don't like what I'm seeing.

Before I get into that though, I'd just like to say, again, that Superbad is freaking awesome. If you haven't seen it, see it immediately. If you don't find it funny, just go ahead and shoot yourself in the face.

So here's what I don't get about this Santana thing: nobody seems to really want him. First of all, the most baffling thing is that nobody other than the Red Sox and the Yankees have even gotten involved, or at least not seriously. ESPN.com follows rumors, but you can't go back further than nine reports because it seems the people who run that place are complete retards, so I can only go off memory. I remember seeing a rumor about the Mets, but it was more of a "no we won't include Reyes in a Santana trade" kind of rumor. And of course they effing wouldn't, but they still have the horses to get it done.

Two other teams with the money to sign him and the prospects to get him are the Angels and the Dodgers, but neither team made any kind of move. Seriously, on a national league team, he'd win MVP for sure. He'd go 29-2, 0.90 ERA and WHIP, and probably hit .340. Yet, no national league team has made a play for him. I really don't get it.

So it's down to the Yanks and Sox, and according to reports the Twins are going to get "best offers" sometime after the new year. And to be honest, the Yanks and Sox do not have best offers out there that make me at all happy. Wow, I did not put a lot of Coke in this drink. Anyway, the current offers are terrible. The latest Sox offer, which used to be my favorite, has now gone all to hell, as now Ellsbury is off the table as well as Buchholz. The new offer is Lester, Masterson, Lowrie, and Crisp. The best prospect in this is Lester, who has an upside of a #2 or #3 pitcher. I mean, it's three decent prospects and an established major leaguer, but is that really all that is coming for Santana?

I like Lowrie, because I like getting a shortstop so Harris can move to third and Punto doesn't start next season, even though I'm fairly certain Casilla is a big pile of crap anyway, but that package is not what I'd expect. I also don't give a crap about Crisp. Nice name, homo.

The Yankees offer right now is pretty clearly the best, based on Hughes being in the deal. Hughes rates as one of the top prospects in the majors, and has #1 potential. What I don't like about this, is the Hughes deal is him, Melky Cabrera, and "prospects." Well, if they aren't mentioned by name, they're probably meaningless. I figured a trade would be centered around Hughes, not essentially just Hughes. Cabrera is a "prospect" technically, but he's a crappy fielder who would be made worse with Young and Cuddyer flanking him, and not anything special as a hitter. I think his upside is a fourth outfielder, and it's just not enough for Santana.

I mean, I know he has to be traded, and likely has to be traded this offseason. I just don't understand why nobody seems to really want him. Boston won't include either of their two top prospects, and the Yankees will give their top guy, but wont' package him with anybody. If the Orioles would hurry the hell up and trade Erik Bedard, that might help. Bedard is number 2 in a trade market that is really only 2 deep (unless you think the A's will actually trade Blanton, then it's 3), and once he goes, Santana is the only one left and maybe that will spur some action.

This is just so frustrating, and honestly, other than Tubby coming to the Gophers, Minnesota is turning into a garbage state for sports. And spare me the whole Vikings could make the playoffs thing. You should be hoping they lose so they get a higher draft pick. That team has no shot to do anything in the postseason. Tavaris or Tarvaris or Travaris Jackson is a giant piece of crap. He's like a poor man's Vince Young, and that's saying something.

Did you see that Luis Castillo resigned with the Mets for over $6 mil per? $6 million a year for four years. The dude has only had an OPS+ over 100 three times in 9 full seasons, and not since '05. Essentially, he's a slightly below average second baseman, and he's getting $6+ per year. But he can get on base, so good for him. He's twenty billion times better of a leadoff guy than Juan Pierre. If there's no trade that helps out the infield, a signing is needed badly. Either Pedro Feilz or Morgan Ensberg would be ok at third, if the market doesn't price the Twins out, and Russ Branyan might be a decent fallback, as he should be cheap.

And I just found out the Twins signed Adam Everett to play short. I don't know why I don't know that, but I don't. Everett is essentially a giant piece of crap, and I have no idea why he was even signed. Sure, they needed to sign either a 3B or SS so Punto wouldn't start, but how is this a good idea? $3 million for one year to a guy with OPS+s of 70, 64, and 56 the last three years? Punto was a 52. So this douche is slightly better at hitting than Punto. That's like being slightly better than Corky at not being retarded. You're still retarded. What a stupid signing. God I hate the Twins.

In conclusion, Superbad is awesome. Oh, and my cousin called me an asshole at our Christmas get-together, so that was pretty sweet. She probably shouldn't have been so wrong that I had to call her on it. Get your shit together.

"BREAK YO SELF FOOL"

A little Johan

I almost don't want this Johan circus to end. It's way too much fun seeing what is out there. Quick update:

The Red Sox are definitely in the lead right now. As much as it would suck to have yet another Minnesota superstar thrive in Boston, they are offering the best packages. It's reported the Twins can select from either of the following:

1. SP Jon Lester, OF Coco Crisp, SS Jed Lowrie, OF Justin Kalish, and SP Justin Masterson OR

2. SP Justin Masterson, OF Jacoby Ellsbury, and SS Jed Lowrie

I would love to get Ellsbury, but that first option looks better and better as the Sox keep sweetening the pot. Crisp can step in for Hunter, and he has a funny name, and Lester, Lowrie, Kalish, and Masterson are the #2, #5, #6, and #7 prospects in the Sox system according to Baseball Prospectus. Right now I'm leaning towards #2, but I think I would be ok either way.

It looks like the Yanks are pretty much dead at this point. Not only is Hank Steinbrenner a complete jackass with his "deadline" that didn't mean dick, and only served to make me look like a pompous idiot with no business sense, but they aren't coming close to what the sox are offering.

SP Phil Hughes is one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and the Yanks are willing to let him go, but will only package him with Melky Cabrera, who is like a third or fourth outfielder in my estimation, and a third player, not a top prospect. That's crap for the best pitcher in baseball. When they Yankees said they refused to include SP Ian Kennedy, #3 prospect in their system, the Twins countered with Hughes, Cabrera, SP Jason Marquez (#13), and either SP Alan Horne (#6) or OF Austin Jackson (#4). I'm shocked the Yankees rejected this. It would have been an absolute steal for them, and if they think they can get Santana for less than this, they're seriously delusional, which seems about right for the Yankees.

A nice little bit of news is that it sounds like the Angels have thrown their name in the ring, which should help drive the price up. The Angels have some very nice prospects - particularly SP Nick Adenhart and 3B/SS Brandon Wood, and things could get interesting if they come to play.

Ideally, Santana goes to the Red Sox for SP Lester, SP Masterson, OF Ellsbury, and SS Lowrie. That will most likely not happen, but there's always hope.

Notre Dame -5.5 vs. Kansas State
Memphis -7.5 vs. USC
Rhode Island -2 vs. Providence
Michigan St -3.5 @ Bradley

Yesterday: 1-3
Season: 73-68

Night Hoops

- Michael Beasley is just sick. He can pretty much get to the rim whenever he wants. He is officially who I hope the Wolves get with the #1 pick.

- Bill Walker is really disappointing in the couple K-State games I've seen. Maybe it's the injury I don't know, but I really thought he'd be better.

- So K-State was beating Oregon all game, then gave up three straight wide open 3's (Oregon hit all three), turning it over twice, and now gave up an offensive rebound for a Duck layup and are down by 6 with 6 minutes left. Seems about right for them from what I've seen.

- Aaron Rodgers looks EXACTLY like Brett Favre in the shotgun, all the way down to the mannerisms.

- Great game. Oregon and K-State trading baskets over the final minute and a half Until the Ducks' big white foreign center gets three offensive rebounds of his own misses until he's fouled, going to the line down 1. If he's like every other big dopey white center, they're just hoping he makes one at this point.

- New rumor: Santana to Boston for Crisp, Buchholz, Lowrie, and Michael Bowden. Buchholz instead of Lester is huge. Bowden is a pitching prospect ranked slightly lower than Masterson, but that trade off is worth it to get Buchholz instead of Lester. If this is on the table, pull the trigger now. Also, as far as Yankee deals go, I have zero to less than zero interest in Melky Cabrera.

- Makes one, and Jake Pullen goes flying down the court completely out of control and gets called for a charge, and we're heading to OT.

- Geez, USC is on TV again? Against Oklahoma this time. I wonder if Mayo will care.

- Beasley is awesome, but he can't seem to keep the big goofy white guy, Maarty Leunen, off the O-boards.

- TaJuan Porter looks like he's about 5-2, but he's quick as hell and a great shooter - and Leunen fouls out on one of the dumbest, ticky-tackiest fouls you'll ever see. That won't help.

- K-State is 5-12 on FTs in the game. That just fits in with the rest of their philosophy of running around like idiots with no plan on offense and being unsure of where to be on defense.

- Unreal. Oregon up 3 with six seconds left, shooting two FTs, miss both, KState rebounds and goes the other way. Throw it to Andre Gilbert on the wing who immediately drives and goes up for the dunk, realizes they are down 3, and tries to kick it out, but it's too late, and Oregon wins by 3. This team is an absolute basket case. It's like a whole team of Kevin Clark's out there (did I already use this joke?)

- 3 first half fouls on Taj Gibson for USC - that is not good. He might be their best player, depending on Mayo's motivation on each particular night.

- OU's Blake Griffin, another excellent freshman, should be able to go to work with Gibson out. Except instead of posting up, he just chucked up a three and airballed it. I swear so many of these players are total idiots.

- Mayo gets all the press, but fellow freshman Davon Jefferson should get more attention. He has 12 already with four minutes left in this game, and scored 20 against Southern Illinois. Mayo is 1-7, and their up 8 anyway. I might be becoming a believer in this USC team.

- OJ Mayo's favorite current NBA player is Steve Nash. I can honestly I wouldn't have guessed that in 100 guesses.

- USC stomping 29-18 at half, and Gibson's been on the bench for most of it. Blake Griffin sucks.

- Since this game is so incredibly boring, here's a quick rundown of the Gophers opponent on Saturday, the UC-Riverside Highlanders:

They're 2-4, with a 1-point win over one of the worst DI programs in the country in Idaho and over something called Hope International. They lost to Gonzaga by 36. They only have one guy averaging more than 10 ppg and nobody with more than 5 rebounds per, and score only 59 points per game as a team. In short, they suck. Gophers 79, UCR 51.

- Longar Longar is tall. Gophers didn't need him though.

- OJ Mayo is every bit as good as advertised, especially when he's aggressive, but aggressive within the flow of the offense. Nobody on Oklahoma can stop him.

- For those waiting for an update on DePaul's (aka Dumpster College) Will "Wheel" Walker, he's had 5 points and 2 points in their last two games, once of which was a loss to North Carolina A & T. Seriously. Nice school.

- USC wins 66-55 and completely controlled the game against a good Oklahoma team. I'm very much a believer in this team. And Blake Griffin sucks.

- Lastly, here's this week's football picks, with a 1-0 start to the week:
St Louis -3 vs. Atlanta
Washington -5.5 vs. Buffalo
Minnesota -4 vs. Detroit
Tennessee -3.5 vs. Houston
Jacksonville +6 @ Indianapolis
Miami -1 vs. NY Jets
KC +6 vs. San Diego
Philly -3 vs. Seattle
SF +3 @ Carolina
Cleveland +1 @ Arizona
Denver -3.5 @ Oakland
New Orleans -3 vs. Tampa
Chicago +1.5 vs. NY Giants
Pitt -7 vs. Cincy
Baltimore +20 vs. New England

Season: 83-82-10