Wait, what? Gophers beat who?

Wow.  That was unexpected.  I'm pretty sure I can't write anything too intelligent or insightful right now since I was pretty much watching that game on pure emotion, but I can throw down a few thoughts because if you're like me you are just going to spend all day at work reading everything you can find about the game.  So I'll sit here with my celebratory cognac (fine, vodka and coke) and write a couple of thoughts.  Also, it's not coke, it's R.C.   *hangs head in shame

[NOTE:  This formatting is horrendous.  I'd fix it but I have no idea how.]

• This was the Gopher team we saw in the early season.  If they can play like this to close out the year they're a sweet 16 contender again.
• This wasn't a case of Indiana playing poorly, the Gophers simply outplayed them.
• I thought Dre Hollins would be the one to step up and carry the team if anybody did, but no question it was Mbakwe setting the tone in the first half.  Remember last year at the beginning of the season when the Gophers would spend three quarters of the game struggling against crappy teams and then Mbakwe would be all like "ok, I'm getting every missed shot now" and carry them back to a win?  Yeah, that's what he was again tonight.  Was amazing.
• Really, nobody played poorly though.  Even those who didn't play well overall made huge plays at some point.  Hollins, Hollins, and Rodney all shot poorly, but Dre hit some huge shots down the stretch (including that monster three down the stretch which, right before, I told the Bear (who came to the game with me) that if the Gophers hit a 3 on that possession I'd do something unspeakable to him so well, there's that), Austin had a couple of huge plays, and Rodney had that big Hakim Warrick style block on an Oladipo three as time was running out.  Everybody came up with a big play at some point.  Everybody.  Even the 5 second call on Indiana came when Mo Walker was in the game.  He had nothing to do with it, but he was there.
• Some will say this is enough to guarantee the Gophers a tournament berth no matter what happens the rest of the way.  I'm not quite that certain, but at this point I'm confident if they can beat either Penn State at home OR Nebraska on the road that will do it.  Obviously the more wins they can get the better the seed, but as long as the Gophers don't go 0-4 to finish up (including the B10 tournament) it should be the easiest Selection Sunday in years.  Decades, really.
• I've gone on record as saying I'm terrified of a Mo Walker/Elliott Elliason starting front court next season.  No longer.  I'm not exactly fired up about it, but Elliason has done enough go convince me at worst he can be a Trevor Winter type, and he has two years to get better.  Walker has shown enough flashes of potential to at least temper my scaredness.  With Hollins, Hollins, and Coleman still going to be around those two just have to be not terrible for the team to at least be in contention for an NCAA bid.  Still hoping and believing in a Chuck Buggs breakout.  Believe with me.
• Speaking of believing, man did whoever is in charge of music botch the "Don't Stop Believing" music in the final minute or so of the game.  Started it too late and never even got to the chorus.  Horrible.
• Cody Zeller is every bit as good as advertised.  He is smooth in the paint and has a bunch of really good moves he can go to on the block.  He's also a bit soft, however, and disappeared after Mbakwe, Elliason, and Williams reminded him that this is the Big Ten and pushing people and elbows and what not is the norm.  I heard someone mention that Indiana stopped looking for Zeller, but really Zeller stopped posting up hard in the second half.  Sorry, but it's true.
• Also Victor Oladipo is ridiculous.  If I had any criticism of Indiana tonight it's that they didn't just iso Oladipo every single time they had the ball, because Joe Coleman was the primary defender on him tonight and I'm sorry I like Coleman but he is a horrendous defender.  Oladipo beat him to the paint every time he tried, and there were a couple of times I watched Coleman stand still as if rooted to the ground when he should have been providing some weak side help.  Again, I like the guy a lot, but he's a horrific defender.
• That being said, overall the defense was outstanding tonight.  Holding both Watford and Zeller to single digit scoring was huge, especially because Watford picked up six of his eight on shitty late threes that were half luck.  Plus shutting down Hulls after his huge first half was big, and it happened because of more awareness of where he was and just a swarming defense that refused to give up good looks.  We saw that kind of defense earlier in the year but it has since bailed, good to see it again. 
• I haven't seen video of the play but Will Sheehey should be ashamed of himself if he really flopped there in the last 30 seconds or so, looking for a cheap flagrant against Dre Hollins.  Crean should be even more ashamed if he encouraged him to do it.  It's a rule that makes sense if common sense was applied, but it's not and it's reared it's ugly head too much this year in stupid places.  To try to take advantage of it is embarrassing.  I'd like to say you're better than that Crean, but I know you're not.  ASS.
• 10 turnovers.  That's it for the Gophers.  Despite everything else I've written, which as usual is way more than I intended, that was really the key.  Well that and the 17 offensive rebounds, but that's to be expected.  This team is good enough to beat anyone in the country if they don't turn it over and actually play defense.  This may be hyperbole but this R.C. is going to my head.
• I'm willfully ignoring the stretch of possessions where the Gophers offense seemed clueless and got nothing but terrible shots as the shot clock expired as well as the fact that this sets up the Gophers perfectly to lose their last 3 games and make everybody nervous.  I will deal with all that later, for tonight, we party.

I'm an idiot with my phone, but you get the point.

Week in Review - 1/28/2013

There isn't much here about the Gophers so if that's what you're looking for go look somewhere else (although I do bitch about Rodney Williams later).  Losing to a mediocre Badger team at Kohl Center doesn't really tell me much, other than reconfirming once again that this Gopher team isn't "elite", but this loss does nothing for me in terms of if this team is "pretty good" or "frustratingly mediocre as usual."  And nothing good can possibly happen next week (home games vs. Nebraska and Iowa) only disastrously bad things can happen outside of expected results, so we won't really know anything until the go to East Lansing and then have Illinois at home the following week.  It's a frustrating time to be a fan.  But what would life as a Gopher fan be without the frustration?  We're all such idiots.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Miami Hurricanes.  Hey bromigos, there have been some great wins by teams this year but it's going to be tough for anybody to top Miami beating #1 Duke by 27 (and yes I know Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly because everyone keeps pointing out how Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly but can everyone just calm down about that for a minute because we're talking about Ryan freaking Kelly here).  I mean they just killed them.  At the ten minute mark of the first half Duke was up 14-13, which means Miami beat them 77-59 over the final 30 minutes.  This wasn't a fluke (don't forget Miami beat Michigan State earlier this year too) and Miami is now 6-0 in the conference and looking like a good bet to win the ACC for what I assume is the first time ever.  Best part of that game was Seth Curry shooting 0-10 from the floor, because I still can't shake my irrational hatred of Stephen Curry so naturally that carries over to Seth because you know, brothers and stuff.

2.  Kobe Bryant.  I think I mentioned this last week but I recently traded for Kobe in my fantasy league which of course means I no longer hate him and kind of like him now, so I fee like it's worth noting that in his last two games he's had 14 assists.  Not total, although frankly that would be kind of impressive for this black hole, but in each of the last two he's had 14 in each.  I mean, say what you want but 14 assists in a game is a freaking lot, and he's now done it two games in a row.  You know many players have ever had at least 14 assists in back-to-back games?  I don't know either, probably kind of a lot, actually, but for a me first glory boy hero ball gunslinging chucker like Kobe to do it must have been very difficult for him mentally.  And, the Lakers, are 2-0 in those games, which just goes to show you that when you have two maybe three other Hall of Famers on your team it does wonders for your squad's chances if you actually let them touch the ball and shoot and stuff.  Like I've always said.

3.  Baylor Bears.  There's a reason why Baylor was highly ranked by many including myself this year, and that's because even with Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller off to the NBA the machine Scott Drew has put in place still meant they were going to be immensely talented.  Sometimes they can put a game together like Monday against Oklahoma State, and even if the final margin was only 10 the game was never really in doubt.  Their back court (Pierre Jackson, Brady Heslip, A.J. Walton) is both experienced and talented, while the front court (Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson) is probably the most athletic in the country with Jefferson the total freak and Austin the unstoppable freshman who can dominate inside or hit the three and already has a turnaround fadeway jumper which truly a thing to behold from a 7-1 dude with a wingspan beyond that (kind of like KG but slightly more awkward).  Then on the bench you have Gary Franklin, Deuce Bello, and Rico Gathers who would all start for most teams.  That's why they handled Oklahoma State, won at Rupp against Kentucky, and stomped BYU this year.  Of course they're also a dumb team, so they've lost at Northwestern and dropped one at home to Charleston.  I'm telling you right now, bros - Baylor is ripe for a first round upset this year in the tournament.

4.  UCLA Bruins.   There is a reason I ranked UCLA the 6th best team in the NCAA going into this season and they were ranked 13th in the preseason polls - there is a lot of freaking talent here.  Early season struggles (one point home OT win over UC-Irvine, home loss to Cal Poly) dropped them out of the rankings and out of everyone's hearts and minds, but as things have come together they reeled off 10 straight wins before dropping a game last week to a good Oregon team, and now went into Tucson and knocked off 6th rated Arizona.  The early season issues shouldn't have been a surprise since the team is mostly made up of freshmen (Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson) and transfers (the Wear twins, Larry Drew), but now everything is looking good (they smoked Arizona) and Muhammed is starting to look like he could do the Carmelo Anthony thing and carry this team in March.  Of course, being a Ben Howland coached team they then went out an invalidated everything I just wrote by losing at Arizona State on Saturday, but I stand by this team anyway.  Kinda sorta.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Rodney Williams.   No, I'm not the idiot who is going to call Williams out for missing the tying free throw because the odds of him hitting two free throws in any situation are pretty long any way and even as a senior he's a kid who isn't a good shooter and who has been in very few high leverage situations like it - it was basically a given he wasn't going to make them both, particularly on the road.  No, I'm going to call out Williams because who in the baby jesus of the earth convinced him he's a jump shooter?  He's not a jump shooter.  He's a freak athlete who needs to get his ass in the paint because his jump shot resembles that of a high school wrestler.  I don't even want him taking open jumpers, let alone the nearly constant shit he's been jacking up the last two games which consists of him stopping the ball, making a jab step or two that doesn't really move the defender, and then rising up and clanging a jumper off some slight part of the rim like he plays for the god damn Illini.  Just because you have the ability to get your shot off whenever you want doesn't mean you should.  To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, "You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn't stop to think if you should."  Actually we should probably have Rodney sit down and watch Jurassic Park - the whole thing is a metaphor for his jump shot.  Or something like that.

2. Kentucky Wildcats.  Like when I wrote about the Lakers last week I'm not exactly breaking news here that Kentucky is struggling, but after watching them lose at Alabama it really reminded me that John Calipari is really not a good game coach, despite winning the title last year.  The talent Kentucky has this year is nearly as good as anything else Calipari has had in his career, but when your offensive game plan generally consists of just rolling the ball out every game, that talent also has to be smart - you need coach on the floor types to keep things moving in the right direction.  His best teams at Memphis had guys like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, last year's champions had Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and even back in the UMass days he had an incredible guard tandem in Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla (I can't believe I didn't have to look those names up).  Without a "smart" player to direct the team, a coach who is an A+ recruiter and a D+ game coach, and a small talent dip from last year this Kentucky team is going nowhere this year.  Of course, next year they're probably going undefeated, so enjoy this now.

3.  Arizona Diamondbacks.  The D-Backs have a solid core and should be a good team again this year, but they've taken the "get rid of the guys the manager doesn't like" philosophy the Twins like so much to a whole different extreme.  Earlier this offseason they unloaded super prospect Trevor Bauer because he wouldn't adapt the workout schedule he's done his entire life to match what the D-Backs wanted and received a prospect in return whose upside is "great glove, no hit" and now they've shipped off Justin Upton because he and manager Kirk Gibson apparently don't get along.  Before trading Upton, however, they managed to kill all their leverage by making it clear they wanted him gone.  Actually first they got a pretty good haul from Seattle, but Upton has a limited no-trade clause and killed that so, desperate to have him gone, they sent him off to Atlanta for one year of a so-so third baseman (Martin Prado) who wants in the neighborhood of $12 million a year starting next season, a likely fifth starter someday (Randall Delgado), and three other minor leaguers of little consequence.  All that for a 25-year old who in four full seasons has had two monster years and two lesser years, which were both above average, by the way.  Just a silly way to do business.  We're actually lucky to have Gardy.  Ha ha just kidding.  Throw in the D-Backs trade of Chris Young to Oakland for another no hit/good field shortstop in Cliff Pennington and this offseason has just been bizarre for Arizona.

4.  Virginia Commonwealth Rams.   What incredible timing for the Rams to implode considering I just pimped them last week as a Final Four sleeper.   All they've done this week is have a seven point lead with 42 seconds left vs. Richmond and blow the game and then lose at home to LaSalle.  Now, neither Richmond or especially LaSalle are bad losses, but this isn't the way to prove me right and stuff. I still think they're a sleeper Final Four team what with their style of play since most teams don't ever go up against something like that, but both blowing a big lead against a mediocre opponent and losing a home game to another mediocre opponent kind of hurt the confidence level.  Actually, maybe this helps since they'll end up with a worse seed and then I will be the only one to pick them to the Final Four and all that sweet sweet NCAA Tournament Pool money will be mine all mine!  I'm a genius.


Lastly, the team in college basketball who hands down had the best week was Villanova.  They beat both Louisville and Syracuse, giving wins over two top-5 teams in the same week which is pretty much like holy shit.  The reasons I didn't list them in the "WHO WAS AWESOME" section are two-fold:  1) I hate them and 2) who gives a crap?  Those are two great wins and yeah their RPI is creeping into the mid-50s so it's possible they could play themselves into an at-large, but they already have seven losses and even if most of them are excusable losing to Providence and especially Columbia is not.  Also I don't even know if I can name a single player for Nova (is Jayvaughn Pinkston still there?) and I don't really feel like learning another team.  So sorry.

Plus I heard Scottie Reynolds has an armpit fetish and cries when he watches Lion King.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

You mean I have to write this preview already?  It feels like the Illinois game just ended.  And man, what a game.  The Gophers defense is absolutely ridiculous.  I've never seen a team handle their rotations so well, and even Joe Coleman is looking semi-competent on that end.  That defense creates so many opportunities to run, whether through turnovers or missed shots, and with the athletes they have it plays right into their strengths.  Even in the half-court they're playing incredibly efficient and finding open opportunities, and with five guys who can score 20+ in any given night opposing defenses can't key on any one player or in any one area.  The bench is a bit of a concern, but like Snacks pointed out to me it's really not THAT bad, it's just that the starters are so good that when the reserves are in it makes them look worse.  The Gophers have gotten really strong stretches from Welch, Ahanmisi, Ingram, Oto, and Elliason this year, and when Tubby goes with that lineup they've been able to keep the margin close to what it was when they came in, giving Tubby the chance to rest the good players so they can play all or nearly all of the second half.  This is awesome.

But, as the way this season goes, as long as I'd like to dwell in the happiness of this win over Illinois we move on and now face a top 5 ranked team in the country and the preseason favorite (according to Vegas) to win the whole thing in the Indiana Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers come in at 14-1, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Butler in Indianapolis in a game that went to overtime.  The most interesting thing to me about those 14 wins is that they may not have a single win over an NCAA Tournament team yet.  NDSU is one of the favorites to win the Summit, but not the clear favorite.  Georgetown is a bubble team at best who's 0-2 in the Big East, North Carolina is heading straight for the NIT, and Iowa is going to have to pull off some major upsets (pleasegodno) to make it.  Everyone else has been a creampuff.

I bring that up not to say Indiana is overrated - far from it.  They've played incredibly well this year, ranking 6th in overall offense and 7th in overall defense at kenpom.com, one of only three teams (along with Duke and Florida) to rank in the top 10 in both.  While the Gophers also fair extremely well in those ratings (10th & 14th) they have a couple of glaring weaknesses (turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds) while in comparison Indiana is above average in literally every single metric measured.  They're an extremely good shooting team who can also put the clamps down defensively, they rebound well on both ends of the court, and they get to the line often while not putting their opponents there.  They don't depend on the three-pointer but hit it with regularly when they're left open, move the ball well, and like the Gophers, have five guys who can go for 20+ on any given night and can hurt defenses in a variety of different ways.  In short, this isn't Illinois or even Michigan State, this is a legit national title favorite (top 3-4 for me).  It isn't going to be easy.

I don't even know where to start when it comes to individual players because there's so much, so let's just get to it.

Cody Zeller could win National Player of the Year and he'd deserve it.  He's got great moves around the rim and can score with either hand going either direction and has a decent jumper out to about 15.  He blocks a decent amount of shots due to his height but isn't an exceptional athlete although he's no slouch there either and can run the floor very well.  He's added some strength this year but if he has a weakness it's his physicality.  The best thing that could happen for the Gophers would be to have Mbakwe go right after him and knock him around on both ends of the floor, hoping they refs let a lot go, beat him up, and take him off his game.  Will that work?  I don't know, but it's what I'd try.

Next to Zeller is Christian Watford, who creates an interesting match-up with Rodney Williams because they're both kind of tweeners, but with different skill sets.  While Williams puts up his numbers with his incredible athleticism, Watford is the exact opposite in that he gets his numbers (and the two have very similar numbers) despite being known as somewhat unathletic due to fundamentals and positioning and other nerdy things like that.  The other big difference is while Rodney is a questionable (at best) jump shooter, Watford is a dead-eye from 3.  The other knock on Watford is that he can lose focus and kind of tune out the game, and the Gophers best chance is for Rodney to frustrate him on the offensive end and hope he tunes out a bit and doesn't crash the offensive boards the way he usually can.

The third guy I want to point out is swingman Victor Oladipo, who might be the second best athlete in the conference (behind Rodney).  Also like Rodney, when he came into college ball he was basically an athlete who played basketball, but has since morphed into a more complete player, and Oladipo is a rich man's Williams because he is a more efficient version than Williams with a good jump shot.  I mean, dude, the guy is shooting 67% from the floor and 48% from three while averaging similar point and rebound per game numbers to Williams.  The Gopher defense is going to have to be just as tight against Indiana as it was against Illinois because if Oladipo gets the ball with just a speck of daylight to the rim he's going to explode after it.  Hopefully somebody can draw a charge or two.

Those are your three main cogs, but there's plenty of other talent here as well.  Jordan Hulls and Yogi Ferrell form kind of a tandem point guard duo - Hulls the steady veteran who takes care of the ball and is a great (and very smart) shooter (hits 52% from the field and three despite being a perimeter guy), and Ferrell the exciting (5.1 assists per game) freshman who is a little wild and can't hit the broad side of a barn when he shoots (32% from the floor, 24% from three).  The compliment each other extremely well and both are excellent defenders, if a bit undersized.  It may work to have the Gopher guards (Coleman, both Hollinses) post them up.  I'm not sure what kind of post game the Gopher guards have, but given their size/strength advantage I'd love to see them try.

Lastly, the Hoosiers have a pretty talented and deep bench led by Will Sheehey who is their fourth leading scorer and a damn good athlete in his own right and also is kind of a dick.  Remy Abell, Jeremy Hollowell, Derek Elston, and the recently reinstated Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Austin Etherington were all highly regarded recruits and round out the Hoosier bench with a cast that's probably better than Iowa.

Breaking it down, I really don't see any clear advantages for the Gophers.  Their best bet is to play their game - tough defense, taking advantage of transition opportunities, and crashing the offensive glass - and hope a few things go their way.  Hope the Gophers' physical play can intimidate and render Zeller and Watford ineffective.  Hope they can play well enough to shut down Oladipo, and that they can push Indiana out of the lane and get them to settle for the same bad shots Illinois was taking (and hope Hulls doesn't hit them anyway).  Hope the Gophers can stay out of foul trouble, because even though their bench is good, Indiana's is great.  If anything is a weakness for the Hoosiers it's that they haven't faced a team as good as the Gophers yet, where the Gophers have already played Duke.  For Indiana, Georgetown is probably as physical but isn't as skilled, while Butler is as skilled as the Gophers but isn't nearly as physical.  North Carolina and Iowa both try to score in transition the way the Gophers do, but neither are on Minnesota's level.

In reality, Indiana is a X.X point favorite for a reason, and while the Gophers can probably make a real game of it at home trying to overcome Indiana's advantage at Assembly Hall (and Big Ten ref's propensity for playing to the crowd) is likely too big a task.  A close game ending with a 5-8 point Indiana win is the likely outcome.

And yet.

I remember a game back in 1997.  A game where a ranked Gopher team went into Assembly Hall to face a higher ranked Indiana team.  Things looked bleak.  The Hoosiers looked to control the game as time wound down, and it looked like another good Gopher team would just be good.  Then there was a three-pointer.  A steal.  And then Bobby Jackson hit a three from the corner and we were headed to overtime, where the Gophers ground out a 5-point victory.  And they were off.  Next stop, Final Four and the best Gopher team of my lifetime.  Well, maybe until now.

Minnesota 80, Indiana 76 (in OT).

Gophers vs. Illinois L ive Blog

-11 minutes - So why not drink some booze and live blog, am I right?  Watching the Iowa State vs. Kansas game right now.  Great game. 

-9 minutes - On a scale of 1-think the Big Bang Theory isn't nerdy enough, how nerdy is it that I just watched this:


-7 minutes - So real quick since we have some time let me just mention how ridiculous the Hall of Fame voting crap was this year with nobody getting in.  Are you guys kidding me?  The worst part is you know they think they're taking some kind of stand or making a statement, when in reality they're just being a bunch of pussies.  The worst part?  As pointed out by Loretta8 from Sippin' on Purple - Bonds and Clemens finished with a different amount of votes.  One is the all-time home run leader, the other won 7 Cy Young Awards.  They're both no-brainer first ballot inductees - unless you are against voting in steroid guys (aka completely ignoring the 90s) in which case they both are at the same level of guilt and should both stay out.  One way or the other.  This means somebody voted for one, but not the other guy. Makes zero sense.  They need to revamp the whole system, and I hate saying that because I really don't know how to make it better.  To start, how about kicking out all the idiots. 

-4 minutes - Seriously, even if you don't want to vote in anybody you remotely suspect of steriods (and, by the way, I've never heard Piazza linked to roids) how do you not elect Craig Biggio?  The stats are there and I'm pretty sure nobody suspects him of steroid use.  Or elect Tim Raines for christ's sake.  He's the second best leadoff hitter of all-time.  At some point I may have to do a post on Raines - or at least link to one - because the guy absolutely has the numbers to be in Cooperstown.  And you know he wasn't on steroids because he was too busy being high on cocaine.

-2 minutes - This Iowa State game needs to end before the Gopher game starts.  Hurry up already.

20:00 - A banked in three for Kansas?  You gotta be joshing me.  Welp, on to the Gopher game.

20:00 - Being good kind of sucks.  It was much easier watching these games when I knew they were going to lose. 

20:00 - What's Egwu doing in there, he doesn't even shoot threes?

19:48 - Paul with a very tough three point attempt (and missed).  You can have that all game, guys.

19:04 - Another bad three early in the shot clock.  Please keep doing this, Illini.

17:41 - Illinois doing a good job keeping the Gophers off the offensive glass, which we can tell already because they've missed like, a billion shots already.

16:53 - Announcer guy FYI - D.J. Richardson is not a "sharp shooter."  Gopher offense is so bad right now I'm afraid Tubby might go with the line change offense.

16:18 - Brandon Paul called for the charge after dunking over Mbakwe - announcers don't seem to realize that is, indeed, an offensive foul so who cares about the dunk part.  I feel like these guys might be the death of me.  Gophers down 4-3, but there have been as many shots already as there were in the entire first half of the Northwestern game.

15:44 - Wait a minute.  How can a basket count on a made dunk with a charge called?  By definition the ball was still in Paul's hand, which by definition means the basket doesn't count.  Jesus this is like re-writing the rules of math.  It's not like you can just change PI to be equal to 3.14158.  My god people.

14:29 - Gopher defense has been good, forcing Illinois into tough shots, other than the two dunks that is, and doing a good job on the boards.  Gophers just not converting opportunities except for just now with Coleman on a dunk in transition.  More transition please.

13:25 - Rodney for 3?  I guess if they aren't going to challenge it he's going to have to prove he can hit it.  Big shot as far as rest of the game implications go.

12:12 - Dre hits a three to answer a Richardson three.  Richardson's came early in the shot clock with a hand in his face, Dre's came mid-shot clock and was wide open.  Gophers are going to win this game, you guys.

11:29 - Complete second unit in for the Gophers.  Great.  And Elliason travels 35 feet from the bucket.  I know why he does this, so he can play the good players the entire second half, but I still don't like it.  Gophers down 13-11 right now, let's hope it stays close to that number while these clowns run down the shot clock again and again.

10:18 - Gopher turnover, Illinois three, Gopher turnover.

9:52 - Welch guarding Paul.  God save us all.

9:32 - Offensive foul on Elliason.  That's three straight turnovers by him.  Effing brilliant.

9:00 - Is there anything more terrifying than Maverick in transition?  For Gopher fans, I mean.

7:56 - TV timeout coming with Illinois up 16-15.  Good job by the second unit.  And by good job, I mean good job on defense (for real) with absolutely brutal offense until Mbakwe came in for Elliason, with Trevor scoring all four points.

7:42 - Wow.  Mbakwe with the drive from the top of the key, makes a lefty layup and is fouled.  That was an NBA second round draft pick play right there.  Free throw to tie?  Good.

6:45 - Coleman goes for a monster dunk and gets fouled but it's not called, good job attacking the rim though.  Pretty sure Dan just pulls up for a 16 footer there.

5:47 - Great defensive rotations forcing the Illini into bad shots, leading to transition opportunities leading to back-to-back dunks by Coleman and Mbakwe.  Gophers up four.

4:53 - More bad shots, more transition opportunities, more Gopher dunks.

4:17 - Good one-on-one move by Bertand to hit a jumper, answered by a three-pointer by Austin Hollins off a good pass by Andre in transition.

3:57 - D.J. Richardson has got to be one of the more disappointing big 10 players I can remember.  Tons of fan fare and hype and in four years he's become nothing more than a jump shooter.  Of course, it's tough when you have to play for the worst couch in the world.

2:08 - Illinois getting (and hitting) a shit ton of free throws, keeping this close at 31-27 Gophers.  Illinois just terrible from three right now, but a lot of it is the Gopher defense.  In general the Illini aren't missing open shots, but contested ones.

1:25 - Hollins (Austin) for three, followed by an Illini miss, followed by Andre Ingram throwing a pass into the 8th row.  I really think Andre Ingram is very promising for a sophomore.

0:47 - Paul actually gets an open look and drains it.  Then Ingram travels.  We're going to have to go Iron Five.

0:00 - 34-30 Gophers at the half.  Excellent job.  Gopher defense is playing awesome, and as long as they keep that up and keep getting transition opportunities they're going to win this game.

0:00 - Holy crap the Lakers are a mess.  Spurs up 101-85 with seven minutes left.

19:13 - Illinois still taking dumb shots as Paul goes for the contested running floater (and misses).

18:33 - Paul swatted by Rodney on a contested turnaround jumper, which leads to a wide open three for Austin Hollins (who misses) which leads to an offensive rebound which leads to a lay-up (and foul) for Mbakwe.  Free throw good.  That sequence was a microcosm of this game.

17:53 - Richardson step back 18 footer early in the shot clock.  So dumb.

16:54 - Gopher ball up 39-30.  Looking for a dagger.  Looking at you, Austin.

16:17 - How about a 40 footer with teh shot clock at two that banks in for Dre who I'm not even sure looked at the hoop?  How about that?

14:52 - Illinois with a couple buckets in the paint to cut it to 44-36 Gophers.  I hope they haven't figured out this "get good shots" thing.

14:11 - Another lay-up for Illinois, time-out Gophers.  Gotta keep 'em out of the paint and keep making them take those contested jumpers they love so much.

12:33 - Illini cut it to 2 with like their fourth straight basket in the paint.  I liked it better when they were stupid.  Also Mo Walker in the game is killing everything. 

11:54 - Austin Hollins steal leads to a dunk for Coleman, and then a Dre Hollins steal leads to an intentional foul by Illinois.  Also, I'm having a heart attack.

11:54 - I think I'm supposed to try to be funny but I'm just way too into the game.  If you want to laugh just listen to Nickelback or Coldplay or something.

11:41 - Dre hits both free throws and then nails a three.  Thank god for Dre.  Like Eminem said, you can't forget about Dre.  *streetcred*

11:09 - Shit, Paul into the lane, fouled and hits the shot.  STOP PLAYING SMART ILLINOIS.

10:50 - "Ahanmisi getting ready to check-in."  Cry.

10:28 - Another Illinois lay-up, defense has gone to shit. 

9:38 - Coleman for three?  Great play by Rodney to find him.  And again Illinois gets to the lane and draws a foul.  This needs to stop.

9:12 - Time for Welch to shine here with four fouls on Andre Hollins already.  I'm fine with him on offense, but very scared on defense.

8:38 - Gophers switch to a zone leading to an absolutely terrible three point miss by Paul, leading to a dunk by Rodney and a 58-47 Gopher lead.  I love dumb teams.

7:09 - Paul into the lane and misses when he could have kicked it out to a teammate for an open three, leads to a transition lay-up for Coleman and a 60-49 lead.  I feel like I'm typing the same thing over and over again.  Also fearing this is a pretty worthless live blog for the reader, but what do you care it's saving you from having to think about actually doing work.

6:42 - Bertand goes one-on-one for about 10 dribbles then misses a contested turnaround.  I know I keep pointing it out but I can't get over how dumb this team is. 

5:43 - Could have done without the easy dunk.  On Coleman, naturally.

5:24 - He pays it back by blowing by his defender for a lay-up.  Incredible game for Coleman.

4:45 - Coleman with ANOTHER three.  And Dre Hollins just checked in and picked up his fourth foul, which means earlier when I thought he had four he only had three which means I have no idea why he was ever taken out of the game.

3:33 - Gophers up 13 (another Coleman dunk) and I can still barely breathe.

3:04 - Sloppy turnover.  Oh yeah, that's why.

2:52 - Richardson airballs a three (contested, of course) which reminds me why I probably CAN breathe.

2:30 - I know the game isn't over yet (Gophers up 72-59) but man is this team good.  Their defense is incredible.  Watching their rotations on defense was the most impressive part of the game, and that's a game when Coleman scored 25 (as of now).  Those who didn't watch or didn't pay attention may call this a fluky bad shooting night by the Illini, but the Gophers had everything to do with that.  Then look at the offense where they have five guys who could put up 20 on any given night?  This team is for real, kids. 

1:48 - I can't believe Illinois missed another contested three-pointer, you guys.

1:16 - Brandon Paul lay-up.  Basically uncontested since the Gophers are up by 12 (after that).

0:30 - Coleman playing some serious suckhole, now up to 29 points after a couple easy dunks.

0:09 - Dre with a three as the shot clock winds down becasue why not.  84-67 Final.  Crazy, dudes.  I'll maybe have more on this game tomorrow if I don't get lazy

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Northwestern

When do everything super man Drew Crawford went down with a season ending injury that pretty much ended Northwestern's NCAA Tournament bid hopes (but hey, they did win a bowl game for the first time since the 40s), and knocked them down from the Wisconsin/Iowa possible bubble team tier to the tier below with Purdue.  So by rights, with this being a home game and all, this should be a pretty easy victory for Minnesota.  But, for whatever reason, Northwestern never seems to be an easy game, even if the Gophers have won four of the last five and won both comfortably last season.

The Wildcats do have two good wins on their schedule already, having won at Baylor and beating Illinois State in overtime (yes, Illinois State is a good win), and two of the three losses are explainable (vs. Maryland - although they got crushed, and vs. Stanford sans Crawford), but they have a dreadful loss to Illinois-Chicago and it's just hard to believe they can do much damage in conference play without Crawford, which isn't to say they haven't had some players step up already in the post-Shurna era.

It starts with Reggie Hearn, who actually leads the team in scoring at 14.5 per game (compared to Crawford's 13.5) and who has averaged 16.5 in the two games he's played since Drew went down.  Of course, Hearn also missed the team's last game against Brown (NERDS!) with an ankle injury and I can't find any info on how severe it is (but to be honest I went to Sippin' on Purple and that was about it).  If Hearn does play, you'll see a very efficient scorer who gets points without taking a ton of shots due to hitting a high percentage of both his 2s (59%) and 3s (43%).  He also averages an impressive 5.5 rebs per game for a 6-4 shooting guard, which is a nice bonus.

The two guys who will probably have to have huge games (along with Hearn) in order for the Wildcats to make a game of this are the seven-footer Alex Olah and his 6-8 PF companion Jared Swopshire, who potentially have the size to overwhelm Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe down low.  They combine for 16 points and 11 rebounds per game, and Swopshire is particularly scary.  He was a four-star recruit out of high school who signed with Louisville and was good enough to hit double figures in scoring twelve times his sophomore, but missed the next season with an injury and was unable to get back into Louisville's rotation, so he packed up his bags and moved to Evanston.  He's shown some of that old ability and explosiveness, but mostly has just been ok because he appears to have forgotten how to shoot.  He's the most likely guy on the roster to replace Crawford's all-around production, so let's hope he doesn't start putting it altogether right away this weekend.  AS for Olah, he's ginormous (7-0, 275 lbs.) and given the Gophers propensity to allow offensive rebounds and their relatively under-sizedness he could be a massive pain.  Northwestern could also bring in Chier Ajou who is 7-2 but I feel rather confident in guessing he's a bit of a project.  Sadly, Luka Mirkovich is gone.

Lastly, how could we possibly talk about Northwestern without talk about little wiener nerds who love shooting threes?  There's Dave Sobolewski (aka The Lesbian) who is the starting point guard and who is somehow an effective player.  Then there's Alex Marcotullio (aka The Lefty) who is the scariest one because he seems to be the streakiest and could just go off and hit 10 threes or something.  And lastly freshman Kale Abrahamson (aka Shurna's little brother right down to the goofy looking jumper) who is 6-7 but is as scared of the lane as Rick Rickert used to be.  Any one of these guys could go off and help keep the game close, or multiple ones of them could and really give the Gophers a scare.  It's also worth noting that guard Tre Demps comes off the bench and absolutely loves shooting.  As with all chuckers, there's a threat of "HE'S ON FIRE" but probably not.

Realistically the Gophers, having solved the zone last year after ten freaking years of looking lost, should wipe the floor with Northwestern.  The Gophers biggest weakness is giving up offensive rebounds, and the Wildcats don't hit the o-boards very well.  The Gophers are awesome at blocking shots, and Northwestern gets a ton of shots blocked.  Basically the Gophers are much more athletic (as usual) and much more skilled (a new one).  Northwestern will have to have three things go their way to win this game:

1.  Gophers struggle against the zone.  This would have been a bigger concern a couple of years ago, but over the past two seasons they're starting to get it.  Plus Hollins and Hollins are both really smart players, smart enough to cancel out the boneheadedness of Joe Coleman (I like him as a player, but he's no Hollinses).  The team has struggled with turnovers this year so this could always go backwards, but as long as they are getting good shots the turnovers can be negated.

2.  Get hot from 3.  This one is very possible, with Northwestern hitting a good percentage this year (38.4% - 35th in the country), shooting a lot of them (40% of all attempts are from 3 - Gophers are at 27%) and have a whole mess of guys who like to chuck them up (7 Wildcats have at least 22 attempts on the year compared to only 3 Gophers).  Northwestern gets nearly 37% of their points from 3-pointers this year, one of the highest percentages in the country.  The Gophers are good but not great defending the three - if one or more of their chuckers gets hot it could be trouble.

3.  Northwestern, on paper, has the size advantage against Mbakwe and Williams.  Of course, Minnesota's pair averages 13.6 rebounds per game vs. Northwestern's pair's 10.5, 2.7 blocks to 1.6, 2.0 steals to 1.1, shoot 57% from the field compared to 44%, have shot 120 free throws compared to 61, and are a pair of seniors compared to a freshman and a first year transfer.  Other than that though, it's pretty close.  I think I'm going to put that in a table form.  Wait for it:

BAM!

Here's how I see this going - Northwestern comes out in a man-to-man, but also hits a few three-pointers so it starts out around 10-10 or so, then the Gophers start to get it going and jump out to like a 22-12 lead.  Northwestern goes to their zone which they always seem to try to save to screw with everyone's head, but this year's Gophers have no problem with it, open up a 40-24 halftime lead and cruise to a 78-59 win.  Book it, nerds.

[NOTE:  After I wrote this I realized Northwestern played Michigan tonight.  I made sure to watch a good chunk of the game, and without Crawford or Hearn their offense seemed to consist of either a failed drive to the hoop or someone chucking a three.  Their inept offense would be the most notable thing about the game if it wasn't for their catastrophic failure on the defensive end.  Nobody could stay in front of Michigan's guards and they were backed up by nobody protecting the rim or rotating to cover the shooters so basically the Wolverines could pick and choose how they wanted to score, and that was only when they had to actually set up an offense because Northwestern for some reason was completely opposed to the idea of getting back on defense and I think Michigan scored 80 points in transition.  Some of it could be that Michigan is just that good, but the Wildcats looked brutally bad.  The Gophers could win by 40. Also Dave Sobolewski still looks like a lesbian.]

Gophers vs. NDSU Live Blog

I couldn't make it to the game tonight, but will be watching live, so why not live blog for the first time this year?  I used to do this to some critical acclaim, so might as well fire it up.

20:00 - Announcer guys point out Tubby has 113 career wins with Minnesota.  Pretty sure nearly 4 of those are against good Big 10 teams.  Need to double that up this year.

20:00 - How bad is that Kevin Correia signing by the way?  And 2 years!??!??  He's a right-handed, National Leagued Nick Blackburn and they already tried that last year with Jason Marquis.  I guess somebody has to mop up the fifth spot, but why not let's the kids throw rather than burning it on a younger Marquis?  Or, they think he can be the #3 guy, which is the worst thing I've ever heard.

20:00 - ZOMBIE NATION!! Oh oh oh oh oh, oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh, oh oh, oh oh

19:47 - Elliott Elliason draws a quick foul.  Unguardable.

19:43 - Rodney with a long 2.  Terrible shot, but it went down.  Gonna be an easy game if that's happening.

18:38 - NDSU plan seems to be get the ball to Bjorklund on the block against Elliason, and Gophers are content to not help, which is a good call since NDSU shoots the three so well.  They've gone to him on all three possessions so far and gotten a block shot by Elliason, a hoop, and a 3-second call.  And, not for nothing, but Elliason needs to be able to handle Summit League big men before he can get a lot of conference minutes.

17:21 - Joe Coleman gets lost on defense again (although to be fair he's been MUCH better this year) which leads to a wide open monster dunk by NDSU white guy, which is actually the kind of play you can't let the Bison get off because pretty soon they're going to "start to believe they can win" which is a total cliche but cliches are true for a reason and I really don't want these farmer dorks hanging around.

16:55 - Coleman gets burned by the guy with the ball after not switching quickly enough off a pick.  He is a truly horrendous defender.

16:04 - Both Hollins's have missed open threes.  Don't like how this game is going.  Not just the score (9-4 NDSU) but everything about it.  This game is french fried taters and I'm the opposite of the sling blade guy.

15:30 - Rodney dunk.  He has all six for the Gophers.  At least he looks good.

15:03 - Going to TV timeout at 9-6 NDSU with Dre going to the line.  Gophers really upped the intensity all of a sudden.   Hopefully that translates into you know, winning, and stuff.

15:03 - Weird D-Backs and Indians trade just went down.  Looks like a 6-player swap of prospects and middle relievers.  The bad news?  Trevor Bauer to the Indians.  Would really prefer to NOT have him in the AL Central.  Felt the same way about Chris Sale, and see?  I'm always right.

14:57 - Andre missed both.  Sweet heavens of jesus wept.

13:41 - All they do is run Felt (big-time 3-point guy) around screens the whole time he's in there.  Good test for Austin since you know he's going to be getting all the toughest defensive assignments.  Well him or Joe Coleman.

12:51 - Maverick throws the ball directly to a NDSU player.  He was trying to hit Oto on the wing though, so it's probably a wash.

12:25 - I'm going to pretend Welch tried to bank that one.

11:59 - Felt drives into the lane and manages to get called for a charge and airball a floater at the same time.  I'm guessing that's why they tell you to hang out on the perimeter, wiener.

11:34 - Has Oto gone retarded?

11:28 - I think there may have been more to that trade.  I'm only getting partial info from Twitter and it's too hard to search for it while trying to count how many passes Osenieks can drop on one possession.  Also, Mbakwe grabbing every board in sight right now.  13-12 Gophers.

10:48 - Ahanmisi hits the 3-ball off a Mbakwe kick out (3 fantasy points for me!).  I hate to say it - like really really hate it - but he's not been completely horrendous this year.

9:39 - Welch/Ahanmisi/Osenieks/Ingram/Mbakwe is not a good look.  There's nobody in that group who can create offense.  Mbakwe is the closest thing but I don't know if it's the knee or what but he doesn't seem to have much of a post game this year.

8:16 - This appears to be one of those games where Coleman plays with his head in his rectum.

7:58 - Did you ever stop and think that the classic Christmas song "Baby It's Cold Outside" is about date rape?  Think about it.

7:11 - I don't take back what I said about Coleman, but my goodness is he clever when he has the ball in the lane.  Probably from playing in the driveway with the taller Dan growing up.  Then again, he probably could just bump Dan once and he'd quit and go inside to play Bubble Bobble.

5:36 - Rodney Williams with a 360 that somehow managed to also be an absolute hammer dunk.  Got to be #1 on SportsCenter.  They like dunks and stuff.  Gophers 26, NDSU 20.

4:41 - I cannot decide if Mo Walker looks good or horrible.  It's the same every game.  He's a two-face.

4:14 - Wait, a two face either looks good or bad.  Mo is a decision I just can't make.  Rather than a two face he's more like Michelle Williams or Robin Tunney.

2:40 - Back to back 5 second calls.  You don't see that every day.  Or ever.

0:53 - Tip-jam for Mbakwe.  Does my heart good to see it.  Like a bunny holding a kitten.

0:00 - Hollins' three as the half ends and the Gophers close on an 8-0 to go into the half up 11.  They should (SHOULD) just need to just keep putting the hammer down to win this one easily.  We shall see.

0:00 - Rodney dunk already on youtube thanks to zipsofakron who writes either for the Gopher Hole, From the Barn, or both:

0:00 - So this has nothing to do with the Gophers, but I can't stop laughing at this Jay Cutler story since I read about it about a week ago.  I mean, it could be a completely random time of the day with nothing going on and I'll think about it and just laugh.

Friend is in a bar in Chicago during the off-season. He goes to the bathroom and sees Jay Cutler, hat on backwards, taking a piss at the urinal. So the guy starts going to the bathroom and says, “Hey, I’m a huge fan, also went to Vanderbilt… ”
Jay throws his head back, still pissing, eyes half-closed because he’s drunk, interrupts him with, “DOOOONNNNTTTTTT CAAAAAARRRREEEEEE.”

 Cannot stop giggling.  Like a little girl.

20:00 - Choo to Cincy is the main piece of the trade, with the Indians getting Bauer and Drew Stubbs.  I can't wait to watch Stubbs face Correia.  The stoppable force vs. the movable object when it comes to strikeouts.  Gonna be sweet.

17:23 - 37-29 Gophers.  I missed the start of the half because I was melting american cheese on saltines which is delicious and Mbakwe is already in.  Maybe he started the second half which maybe we are done with this nonsense.

16:44 - Mbakwe with 10 boards already.  Looking pretty good.  Twitter nerds attacking that dude who wrote how he "had no explosiveness" anymore.  Relax, nerds.  So Trevor dunked.  He didn't even do a 360 or anything.  I'm going to go make this same joke on twitter now, as I watch Mbakwe make another lay-up against some hapless fool.

15:43 - Dre Hollins takes it to the rack 1-on-4 in transition, has it knocked away out of bounds.  I don't care what fundamental dorks say, I like a little reckless in my PG.

15:26 - Gophers realizing NDSU can't deal with either Rodney Williams or Mbakwe down low and just feeding the post.  Nice to see them appear as if they are coached.  For the last several years, whether Tubby was coaching or not, it sure didn't look like it.

14:29 - Mbakwe air-balls a free throw.  That's his second one this year (at least).  Between that and Andre Hollins actually missing free throws something weird is going on.  Even more weird?  Coleman, Elliason, and Williams all hitting 70%.  It's kind of like when you're playing Contra and you lose all your lives but player 2 has some left so you just steal one.

 13:30 - 49-32 Gophers and looking like they've taken control.  Best news of this game is that Mbakwe is looking a lot like his old self tonight, absolutely crashing the boards with reckless abandon with 13 boards and 6 on the offensive end.  Remember last year when he'd all of a sudden just decide, "yeah, I'm going to get every missed shot now"?  It's like that.  In sad news, do you realize when Williams and Mbakwe graduate next year's big man duo will be Elliason and Walker.  Oof.

12:55 - Andre Ingram would be a very promising sophomore.

12:08 - Osenieks really shoots like a shooter.  He doesn't make them like a shooter, but he shoots like one.

9:45 - The way Walker has played tonight, and he just missed a lay-up, I'm starting to think he's not a two face he's just ugly.  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt since he's still dealing with coming back from an injury, but that feels like an excuse.  That's an excuse, isn't it?  It is.  I knew it.

7:28 - Gophers trying to let NDSU back in the game here up just 57-45 now.  Good thing NDSU is terrible.

6:43 - Wow.  Rodney Williams just blows right by his guy coming from the perimeter, then when dude overcommits to stop the drive he stops on a dime, pivots in the other direction, and hits the turnaround jumper.  NBA level move right there.

4:42 - Another rebound for Mbakwe.  That's like, 15 or something.  Austin hits a J on the break and Gophers up 66-50.  I'm getting tired.

3:37 - Wally Ellenson on the floor for the Gophers.  I guess we solved the question of the redshirt.  And he immediately turns it over.  Great.

2:55 - Ellenson nearly turns it over again but is bailed out with a foul call.  EVERYTHING IS GOING GREAT!

1:40 - Ellenson continues to play like a walk-on.  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, obviously since it's his first game, but not exactly impressed.  Gophers up 70-57.  Line is 14.

0:00 - Gophers win 70-57.  Do not cover.

Minnesota 88, South Dakota State 64

Well that was a pretty thrilling Gopher win, huh?  Not because they beat a Nate Wolters-less Jackrabbits team, but because sportsbooks didn't factor in the fact that the team was going to be Wolters-less.

See, the spread on the game opened with the Gophers as 14.5 point favorites.  Mid-day there were some tweets going around that Wolters sprained his ankle, didn't participate in the team's shoot-around that day, and was questionable to play.  The spread only moved to 15, so at that point I jumped on it figuring he'd be limited at best.  Then, about a half-hour before game time, more tweets came out that he wasn't looking good or very confident about playing on it.  The spread still only moved to 15.5, so I doubled up.  Then, maybe 10 minutes or so before the game, it because official he wasn't playing.  Spread stayed at 15.5, so I tripled up on my double up.  Easy win.  SDSU would have been a 25 point underdog at least if Wolters was known to not be playing, and the books clearly didn't pay much attention to this game, don't know who Wolters is, or simply didn't care.  In any case it was a nice payday and an easy one, and those are the best kind.  I feel pretty bad I didn't give Bogart or TRE the heads-up on this, but I was too wrapped up in it myself.  Oh well.

As for the game, the Gophers continue to do what they've done all year - play great defense and efficient offense.  I mean you can't get more efficient than Andre Hollins.  22 points on 8-9 shooting and 6-7 on threes?  And his only miss was an absolute ridiculous heat check that nobody could ever make ever?  You gotta be kidding me.  Add that performance to his 41 points on 16 shots versus Memphis and that has to be two of most efficient 20 points games this year.  I'm sure that info is out there somewhere (ranking these) but I don't know where to find it.

He was far from the only stud last night though, as Joe Coleman and Austin Hollins continue to develop into really, really good players.  One big thing I noticed last night about Austin is how much more assertive and confident he is with his jump shot.  Where the last two years he'd catch the ball on the wing and kind of size up if he was open enough to shoot and then maybe shoot, but this year he's already able to determine if he's going to be open enough to shoot before he gets the pass and just catches, rises, and fires.  And I'm not just talking short shots, he's doing it on three-pointers.  Take that with his always there but suddenly really emerging athleticism and he's a hell of a player.  As for Coleman he does incredible things considering he has a forward's game in a guard's body.  He's tough, strong, and determined and an amazing inside scorer for someone who is just 6-4.  He's just fearless - basically the complete opposite player of his brother.  I mean does anyone get more of his own misses in the paint than Joe?  He's like, a genius at it.  Dan and Joe must have switched bodies like Jason Bateman and Ryan Reynolds in that movie with that chick from 40-year-old Virgin who pukes in the car at some point because each's abilities are the exact opposite of what you'd want from someone in their bodies.  Can you imagine Dan with Joe's game?  Whoa.

Maybe the craziest part of this team is I've now droned on for 500+ words about them and still haven't mentioned either of their two best players from last season.  Trevor Mbakwe, who nearly had a double double, who mainly seems to have settled into his sixth man/big-time rebounder.  The only problem with that is he still has NBA aspirations, and I don't think he's going to get there averaging 7 pts and 8 rebounds per game.  That would also be why he unveiled that absolutely god awful turnaround fade-away jumper last night that he should never, ever take again under any circumstances.  I still think he's easing his way into being a force, so I'll reserve more judgement on him until later in the year.  Then Rodney Williams, whose stats made it look like he was kind of invisible last night but he wasn't because he blocked two shots nearly back to half court, was trying to prove he can shoot from the perimeter (note:  he still can't) and then later when he decided "this shit sucks when I don't score" he dunked all over some poor ginger bastard.  Basically they didn't need him, and that was pretty awesome, actually.

Excellent, if easy, game, from a very good team.  The first five are outstanding if you sub Mbakwe in for Eliason (who isn't terrible anymore).  Welch, Osenieks, Ingram, Walker, and Ahanmisi are a good bench that isn't great but can fill in some gaps, and with a starting 6 this good they aren't needed in games that are going to be close for more than 3-8 minutes each, but they're also capable enough to fill in for 12-15 if that situation should arise at some point this year or at least that's what I keep telling myself.  Simply put, I believe in this year's squad and I'm in love with them and I don't care who knows it.  Also, how sweet would it be for Wolters to get back, the Jackrabbits to go on a huge run, and this ends up loooking like a super easy win over a top 100 team?  Pretty cool, right?  Right.

Back tomorrow with a preview of the USC game, the only losable game left.  As long as they win that one they should cruise to home wins against NDSU and Lafayette and most likely will be ranked in the top 10 going into the big Dec. 31 game versus Michigan State.  And that, my friends, is where we are going to learn an awfully, awfully thought about our favorite team.  In the immortal words of that one guy, "NO WHAMMIES NO WHAMMIES NO WHAMMIES!"

Gophers 77, Florida State 68

Well that was a pretty impressive victory, and one I did not expect.  I'm not surprised the Gophers knocked off Florida State, I figured they had a decent change, but I definitely wasn't expected them to take control of the entire game and win by 9 in a game that wasn't remotely that close.

Sure, Florida State might be down a bit this year, what with the loss to South Alabama and all, but they also scored wins over BYU and St. Joe's in route to winning the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic and those teams are likely to at least be in the mix for an NCAA bid this season.  Their RPI isn't very good right now (136) but a loss to USA will do that and by the time the conference season gets going this is going to end up being at least a top 100 win for the Gophers, and you can never have too many of those.  Not to mention that doing it in Tallahassee, the place where top ranked UNC and Duke teams have lost multiple times, makes it that much better.

Florida State certainly didn't help themselves out by missing a lot of the open looks they managed to get, but give a lot of credit to the Gophers for forcing FSU out on the perimeter taking jumpers rather than getting to the rim.  Other than a few very nice drives by Snaer and Terrance Shannon grabbing 8 offensive rebounds the interior defense was incredible.  The Gophers somehow finished with just six blocked shots but I think 3-4 of them came in the first ten minutes and did a good job pushing the Seminole offense outside - not a strength of theirs.  I'm starting to believe this is the best Gopher defensive team I can remember.

Offensively they were impressive as well, moving the ball quickly and crisply and knocking down open shots.  The three guards all are showing they can score when needed, with Austin Hollins the jump-shooter, Joe Coleman the pure scorer, and Andre Hollins the streaky hot guy.  Take those three and add in Rodney Williams and this offense is humming.  I can't get over Rodney transformation.  It started last year, hit a stride at the end of the season, and has continued into this year.  He just looks and plays so confidently.  When he gets the ball on the perimeter now instead of quickly passing it on to a guard he's always looking for that lane to get to the hoop, as if he has finally figured out nobody who is big enough to guard him is quick enough to guard him. I'd still like to see him posting up a little bit more, but FSU did a good job of taking away the post up game from the Gophers last night, luckily it didn't matter because the guard play was still good.  Twelve total turnovers for the team was an improvement as well.  Clearly it's an area that still needs to get better, but that was a step in the right direction.

As good as the team looked and as solid as they've been this year I am still concerned about Trevor Mbakwe.  I just don't get what's going on there.  It's not just the numbers, it's that he just doesn't seem like the same player and I don't mean physically.  He doesn't seem into the game.  Last night he made a lay-up and got fouled in a big spot and showed absolutely no emotion (the Ralph Sampson plan, apparently).  I don't know if it was more of a "been here before" or a "I'm bored" but he was an emotional leader last season and I would have thought he'd have a bigger reaction in that spot.  Hopefully I'm over-complicating the issue and he's just still working himself all the way back, but he's going to be the difference for this team and how far they can go.  With him playing the sixth man, bench big guy this is a very good team.  If he can get back to even close to what he was last year and take Elliason's spot in the lineup (although he played quite well last night) that could elevate this team to "great" status.  Yeah, I said it.  I didn't get to see the Stanford game but I had heard that he looked like his old self in that one, which is even more of a concern then that he didn't seem up for this game.  Maybe he was tired (he is super old, after all).  Maybe he's frustrated coming off the bench.  I don't know.  Turn him loose Tubby.  Let him start and play 30 minutes and let's see what happens.

All-in-all, a really good win.  How FSU plays in the ACC this season will determine just how good, but I'd be pretty shocked if this didn't end up as an RPI Top 100 victory.  The team played really well and Tubby showed, as he did against Memphis, that he knows how to shorten the bench when it's needed, something I can't recall seeing in past years.  Maybe he senses what I do, that this is the team he can really do something special with.  That's my feeling, and I'm not optimistic by nature.  With only two meaningful games left before the B10 season starts (vs. SDSU, @USC) the Gophers have a real shot to enter Big Ten play at 12-1 (not uncommon for them) but with three likely Top 100 wins (FSU, Stanford, Memphis) and three others that could get there (SDSU, USC, Richmond).  Not a bad start.  However this isn't the first time a Tubby Smith led Gopher squad has gotten out to a fantastic start in November.  Hopefully this one ends up a little differently.

Atlantis Thoughts and FSU Preview

Normally following a tournament like the Battle 4 Atlantis I'd have 10,000 words to write, however given my circumstances I won't be able to muster that much simply because I don't know enough.  I watched the entire Duke game on my computer, but was at Dinosaur Park (which was sweet) and then a Utah BWW that had nothing but the Utah/Colorado football game on (I'd make a joke here if Minnesota football wasn't what it is) so I had to follow along on twitter, and then for the Stanford game I was driving across the country listening to Hunger Games books on tape and tried to follow along on my phone as well as possible but cell phone internet access in the middle of Nebraska is pretty much what you'd expect.  That being said, nothing has really ever stopped me from having an opinion and I'm not going to change now.  You get what you get.  So here:

•  I said the Gophers either had to beat Duke or win the next two games in order to make the tournament a success, so I'm calling it a success.  Duke was clearly superior, and Plumlee may be the player I've been the most wrong about ever, but the Gophers played well and the 18 point margin should have been closer if everything those a-holes through up didn't go in.  Both the Memphis and Stanford win should end up being quality victories when March roles around, particularly Memphis once they run through the shitty C-USA.  Hopefully Stanford can manage to stay relevant.
• Andre Hollins's's game against Memphis was a great one with 41 points, the most scored by a Gopher since 1971, but don't forget the next game he shot 1-8.  He is certainly explosive, but needs to become a more complete player to be a true star.  When the jumper isn't falling he needs to find other ways to contribute, and his 2 assists against Stanford when he couldn't score aren't enough.  Still very fun to watch, but hopefully he can figure out this point guard thing this year.
• Awesome to see Mbakwe with a double double vs. Stanford.  The couple people I talked to said he looked to be truly back to his old self.  I'm interested to see if he really is and if so, when Tubby let's him loose because it's time to stop playing Elliason so much.  Also I hope he's back because I just took him with the first pick in the second round in our Fantasy Big 10 league.
• Two good wins now on the ledger, and assuming they can beat South Dakota State at home (shouldn't be a problem) and can win at least one of the away games vs. Florida State and USC, they should be set-up pretty well to get an at-large bid in March.  Of course, it would be plenty easy to blow the season in a pretty good Big 10 this year, but I prefer not to think about it.

Also I recently learned that the Gophers play Florida State in the ACC/Big Ten challenge tomorrow which seems really, really quick on the heels of the tournament.  So I guess I'll do a quick preview because I love you.

 The Seminoles have recovered from a mind-boggling season opening loss to South Alabama with four straight victories including quality wins over BYU and St. Joe's.  They are known as being a killer defensive team under Leonard Hamilton, having ranked in the top 21 in defensive efficiency six of the past 10 years, and in the top 15 each of the last four (ranks: 12-1-1-15).  They are excellent defensively again this season, currently ranking 45th.  The drop off can be attributed to blocking fewer shots than in years past.  The graduation of Bernard James (2.3 bpg) and Xavier Gibson (1.3 bpg) has left a hole in the middle of the defense that Florida State has yet to figure out how to fill.

What they do have in the middle of the defense is a Terrance Shannon, a 6-8, 240 lb. big ole strong dude who can handle Trevor Mbakwe's strength.  What he can't handle, however, is his athleticism.  Their athletic big is 6-8 Okaro White, but he's only 204 lbs, so he'll probably end up taking Rodney Williams.  Unless, of course, they put Michael Snaer on him, and Snaer is the guy Gopher fans definitely need to worry about.

Snaer, at 6-5, can pretty much lock down anyone on the perimeter and is probably the best defender in the ACC.  He's quick enough to stay in front of quick point guards (Dre Hollins) but is also strong enough that bigger perimeter players can't take him down to the block and post him up.  Whether he takes Hollins or Williams (or someone else) you can guess they'll have a rough night.

Offensively Snaer is the biggest worry as well.  He's the type of player who can just completely control a game and ups his game in big spots, such as when he hit the game winning 3 last season against Duke or his game winning 3 last season against Virginia Tech.  As if he wasn't good enough last year, he's upped his game this season, increasing his scoring (from 14.6 to 16.0 per game) and upped his rebounding to cover for the two lost post players (from 3.8 to 6.4) and assists after FSU's starting point guard graduated (from 1.9 to 2.8).  He's really, really good.

As a team Florida State shoots the ball well but turns it over too often (sound familiar?)  Defensively they are very solid, as mentioned, and excel at creating turnovers.  These are two really similar teams, where the Gophers have more talent and experience, but the Seminoles have home court advantage.  The Seminoles are also the best defensive team the Gophers will face this year, and one of the few teams with the personnel to stop both Mbakwe and Hollins.  I think we're looking at a low-scoring affair, and I think Snaer makes the difference.

Florida State 54, Minnesota 51.

 

Quick Gopher Thoughts

A couple of quick thoughts on the Gopher exhibition game, just really quick because you can't really learn much when they play somebody like Mankato, and also because I know TRE is working on a T-Wolves preview:

-         -  Rodney scored the first two baskets of the game by posting up and hitting a running lefty hook shot and an up and under double pump.  Was very pleasantly surprised.  He’s clearly worked on some post moves.

-      -   Mbakwe didn’t start but came in about halfway through each half (standing O from me, grandslam, TRE, the student section, and maybe a few other people first time he came in).  Looked ok, but on one play when he challenged a three-pointer he didn’t look like he had the same lift he used to when he jumps.  Didn’t play all that much.

-        -  Oto hit a three, made a steal on a pass, and did the pull up 3 pointer heat check on the break.  Nothing but backboard.

-        -  Charles Buggs is not who I hoped he was, at least not yet.  Very wooden, looked a little bit lost, and got beat three different times to inside position on a free throw when he was in the first spot.  Not very impressive.  That said, he's got four years to prove me right. 

That’s really it.  They handled Mankato from the opening tip which I suppose is a good sign, or rather they didn’t let them hang around which would have been a bad sign, so it’s neutral.  Which is better than bad.

DWG NCAA Preview: Team #19 Minnesota Gophers

Because above all else - including the Twins, gambling, shitty predictions, and shark movies - this is a Gopher basketball blog I'm giving them their own post rather than just lumping them in with a bunch of other teams like I've been doing.  And since I know things will go better this way, I'm going to do this in random points style.

-  Is #19 a little bit too high?  Yeah, maybe.  Based on votes the Coaches poll has them 34th, while the AP poll puts them at #30.  CBS Sports has them at #22 and most of the other polls/previews I've found put them anywhere between twenty and fifty, so yes, nineteenth is a bit optimistic, but only a bit.  I'm also making some assumptions about the Gophers this year, which brings me to a few more points.

-  I'm assuming Trevor Mbakwe is healthy.  Let's put aside any legal questions regarding Mbakwe because it's reportedly all behind both him and the team at this point and also who really gives a crap?  I don't care what the players do off the court (as long as they stay eligible) and couldn't care less if they graduate (as long as the program doesn't get hit like UCONN and others just did) I just want my teams to win.  Given that as my starting point, I only care about if Mbakwe can play the way he could when healthy, and I'm thinking it's a yes.

See, because this isn't the dark ages of medicine anywhere.  When my dad blew out his knee when he was playing minor league baseball ages ago they practically had to slice the knee off to work on it.  In more recent times, it was said you needed anywhere from a year and a half to two years to fully recover, but luckily modern medicine continues to get better and that's not necessarily the case anymore.  Adrian Peterson blew out his knee Christmas Eve of 2011 and is now one of the leading rushers in the NFL in a season that started just 9 months later.  A more relevant example is Michigan State's forward Branden Dawson, who blew out his knee in early March of 2012 and has already resumed full basketball activities just 7 months later.  Mbakwe has a full 3 months on that dude recovery wise, so I expect him to be the same guy who was attacking the glass and practically winning games for the Gophers single handedly early last season.

-  I'm assuming Rodney Williams has learned how to play and won't shrink back into Mbakwe's shadow.  Probably the biggest key to last year's little bit of success was Williams blossoming after Mbakwe's injury into a legitimate forward.  He learned to play a little bit of PF, taking smaller defenders down into the paint even if Tubby called an agonizing small amount of plays that called for this, and he learned how to play SF, figuring out that a mid-range jumper wasn't his game and that when he had slower defenders on him to take that shit to the rack.  He was a smashing success, nearly doubling his scoring and increasing basically all stats across the board.  My hope is that he can continue to play this way, and maybe work in an little high post/low post (come on, you know Tubby loves it) with Mbakwe depending on match-ups and see what happens.

The fear, of course, is that with Mbakwe back as the main big man - and make no mistake that's his paint - Rodney will decide he's a perimeter-oriented small forward once again.  He'll start the year settling for threes and taking long-range 2s rather than posting up or getting to the rim, and when he starts missing (and unless something has drastically changed he will be missing) he will lose confidence, get pulled from games, and revert back to his sophomore year level of play.  I am choosing to believe that this will not happen.  Williams looked happy last season for once of the first times I can recall, and I think he really enjoyed being "the guy in the paint", the guy who exploited mis-matches, and the guy who could crash the boards.  He can still be all this, and if he does, he's going to be one of the best small forwards in the conference.  It is on Tubby to make sure he finds a way to make Mbakwe and Williams' co-exist.  Their skill sets do overlap in some ways, but they complement each other in may ways as well.  Make it happen, Tubby.  This is easily the most important piece to this year's puzzle.

-  I'm assuming Andre Hollins is as good as he was at the end of last season.  If you're a Gopher fan you know how Hollins closed out the season (at least until the Stanford game):  8 straight games scoring double figures with half of those over 20, incredible free throw shooting (40-42 in those 8 games; 90% for the year), 16-40 from 3, and 26 assists - incredible numbers if he could keep it up for the season.  He showed flashes of that kind of scoring ability earlier in the year, and an 8-game stretch is too long to be a total fluke. He brings an incredible ability to get into the paint to the table (shades of Russell Westbrook) and obviously can finish at the line.  He may not be the best pure distributor a point guard could be, but he got better as the year went on and finished out looking awfully good for a freshman.  His shooting is only so-so from the outside, but a 38% 3-point percentage in his first year is a good indicator of success.  All signs point to an absolute breakout year.

My one fear is that Tubby may end up neutering him.  Yeah he's a little reckless at times and can be out of control, but that's what I want in my point guard.  I want a point guard who, every single time he gets an outlet pass, streaks up the floor immediately to see if anything looks good, and then pulls it back.  I don't mind forcing the ball where it maybe shouldn't go sometimes because if the point guard is good enough (and I think he is) that's going to work as often as it doesn't.  You show me a point guard at this level and at that age who is always under control and I'll show you a point guard who can't make anything happen.  With Mbakwe and Williams already there to take care of the paint someone has to be the guy on the perimeter, and there is no reason for it not to be Dre Hollins.

-  Put those three assumptions together, and you can see why I'm so optimistic this season.  Think about it.  If all those assumptions break correctly, how many better big men are there in the league than Mbakwe?  I'll tell you:  1 - Tyler Zeller.  Whichever you prefer, those two are clearly #1A and #1B in the Big 10.  Then, what is a better combo of forwards than Mbakwe and Williams?  Again, Indiana with Zeller and Watford.  Unless the two freshmen at Michigan (McGary and Robinson) are through the roof (very possible), Basabe stops sucking and Aaron White improves immensely at Iowa and/or Adam Woodbury is ready to be a stud now (unlikely), or some combination of the Spartan freshmen and Branden Dawson's knee are studs (possible), the Gophers will have a top-2 forward combo, and at worst will be top-5 if all those things I just wrote happen.  Then, how many PGs are going to be better than Andre Hollins?  Trey Burke, obviously.  Tim Frazier, probably but kind of irrelevant.  Aaron Craft?  Maybe, but what about on offense?  Keith Appling?  No.  Jordan Hulls?  No.  There are two freshmen who could be huge in Yogi Ferrell (Indiana) and Gary Harris (Michigan State), but in any case you're looking at one of the top players at three different positions for the Gophers this year.  Fill in the rest with capable role players (and I'm not quite ready to relegate Austin Hollins or Joe Coleman to "role player" being their upside this year) and you're looking at a very, very good team.

HOWEVER.

I can absolutely see this going to shit as well, even if Mbakwe is 100%, and that's due to Mr. Tubby Smith.  The way this team is built, with Mbakwe and Williams, they should be grabbing damn near every defensive rebound and then they should be outletting to Hollins and go.  This team should be fast enough and athletic enough to have an excellent transition game.  Unfortunately the Gophers have never ranked higher than #192 in tempo under Tubby.  The highest Kentucky ever ranked under Tubby was #147, so I'm guessing we aren't going to see a more uptempo squad.  This worries me that he's going to beat on Hollins' that he needs to slow it down, walk it up, make 3-passes before a shot and all that other Norman Dale bullshit.  I also worry about the Mbakwe/Williams dynamic, because Tubby has never gotten a 2-big man system to really work.  Now, Williams isn't a true big man but he also doesn't shoot well, so that's going to be on Tubby to figure that out, but if he can make it work Austin Hollins and Julian Welch (and Oto Osenieks) should have many, many chances to knock down open jumpers. 

I've never been one to irrationally call for Tubby's head, and I'm not doing it now, but this is absolutely a make-or-break year for him.  For one, as outlined above, he has the most talented team he's had here yet and has a chance to develop into something special.  Perhaps even more important is the wealth of basketball talent in Minnesota in 2014, and while a successful year might convince some of that talent to stay home, another missed NCAA Tournament will almost certainly drive them away.

ESPN ranks Tyus Jones (Apple Valley) #1 for the class, Rashad Vaughn (Cooper) #10, and Reid Travis (De La Salle) #29.  Jones is almost certainly not going to stay home, but Vaughn and Travis are the kind of kids who can make a school like Minnesota.  Tubby's overall record with highly ranked Minnesota kids is very good, but these guys are ranked way ahead of where Royce White, Rodney Williams, and Joe Coleman were.  This season needs to go well to have a chance to get these guys.  I don't know if Tubby's job depends on it, but it should.

Oh, right.  Picture:

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Hello from Hollywood

Yes that's right, I'm on a business trip here in L.A. and I'm sure you're looking forward to some drunk ramblings but here's the thing, I just flew in here late tonight and boy are my arms tired.  Seriously though, folks, this time out I have an absolutely jam-packed schedule going from 7am to 8pm (minimum) every night and I know I usually have a sink full of ice and beer and just type things and drink things to the point where I can't remember the last few things I typed up the next morning (usually a pleasant surprise) but this time that wouldn't be smart.  Luckily, I am not exactly known for doing the smart thing, so I do have a sink with ice and beer.   Will I be smart and just type up a little bit and then go to bed, or will I down all my beer and type into the wee hours?  READ ON.

-  With college football in full swing my thoughts inevitably turn to college basketball, and I'm a little nervous about this season for the Gophers because I'm feeling something I never do:  optimism, which is weird because usually optimism and me go together like vinegar and your face.

Obviously the season mainly hinges on Trevor Mbakwe, but let's say he's healthy.  Let's say he's even just back to 90% of the player he was before Dayton intentionally injured him because they're jerks - doesn't he become either the #1 or #2 post-player in the league, depending on what you think of Cody Zeller?  The only immediate impact type post playing freshmen coming into the conference this year are Mitch McGary at Michigan and Adam Woodbury at Iowa, and I think Woodbury is a bit of a project so at worst, assuming McGary is a world-beater, Mbakwe is a top-3 post guy (if he's healthy).

Then let's say Rodney Williams thrives with Mbakwe back rather than regressing to the passive wing player he was prior to Mbakwe's injury, and continues to exploit his athletic advantage over damn near everybody and becomes 1b in the paint to Mbakwe's 1a - wouldn't they have a massive rebounding edge over everybody?  In that scenario who even comes close to having two inside players that can match that?  Indiana (with Zeller and Watford) and who else?  I can't think of anybody.  Most of the top post-players either are hurt (Branden Dawson at Mich State) or jumped to the pros.

And how about Andre Hollins?  He's getting to be nearly unguardable going to the rim and makes nearly every free throw.  If he's worked on his jump shot (although 38% from 3 isn't terrible for a freshman) and can play a little more under control (but not too much more, I'm not Tubby here) what's his ceiling?  That run he put on to close out the season (save the Stanford game) was remarkable.  If he can play at that level who'd you take over him in the Big 10?  Trey Burke, sure.  Tim Frazier, maybe?  I could even listen to Aaron Craft but I'd like to know if he can be an offensive catalyst on a team first rather than the defensive and "glue" guy.  That's it.

Couldn't you make a case that the Gophers could potentially have three players in the top 3 at their position in the Big 10 this year?  And couldn't that be enough, with good role players (the other Hollins, Elliason,Welch, Osenieks, Walker even though I read he got fat but what would you expect) to win the Big 10 title?  Am I crazy here?  Probably.  And Probably I'm in for a world of disappointment this season but I'm going to go ahead and feel good about this season so there.

-  Remember what I said about writing alot.  Well instead I got a call from a coworker to go have a late dinner which I did (rice noodles in a garlic sauce with chinese broccoli and shrimp, roasted serrano peppers as an appetizer and then three Macallen 12's) so I'm going to call it a night.  I know, I'm disappointed too.  But as I told my wife when we got married, get used to dissapointment.  Until tomorrow.

Better post from last time I was here.  Well maybe not that good but there's some links in there that were better.  I don't know.  Just go click on stuff.  What do you have better to do.

NOTE:  There are some really, really good comments in some of those links.  I miss those guys when they were funny

Wednesday Wonderings

Finally managed a little time to get some thoughts down on paper or whatever you want to call it cybernerd, so I better get to typing before it's too late.  Sorry for the lack of posts lately, but work has really been kicking the ever-loving shit out of me the last two weeks.  Hopefully things will calm down after this weekend

-  The biggest news is that Trevor Mbakwe is officially back.



Obviously this is huge as he was the team's best player a year ago before going down to injury, and with Sampson (thankfully) gone he gives the team another inside presence besides Elliott Elliason and takes a lot of pressure off of Mo Walker's return (what's up with him anyway?).  Hopefully Mbakwe (and Walker) will be back at full strength for the season, which gives the team three capable big men along with Rodney Williams who can clearly play the four when need be.  Rodney is also the biggest driver of how far this team can go.  Mbakwe's return will push him back out to the perimeter for stretches, and with him thriving this year more in the post than on the wing how what will that do to his development?

If Williams can develop a reliable jumper (how many years have we been saying this) and keeps the confidence he gained this season in going to the rim this team can be a monster.  I feel confident in saying Andre Hollins is a rising star, and him, Mbakwe, and the good Williams give this team three legitimate threats to dominate a game at any one time, whether for stretches or in total.  Add in the late season improvement of Elliason, Austin Hollins, and Joe Coleman and the Gophers should by all rights be a top 4 Big 10 team with Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan.  Even without Mbakwe back they could have reached those heights with continued improvement, so expectations are high this year.

Of course, there's also the possibility that Williams still can't shoot and falls back into his old disappearing routine when Mbakwe is on the post.  I'd like to think any player capable of putting together the stretch of games Rodney did to finish out the year is incapable of completely regressing back to a full year ago's form, but I'm certainly not going to completely rule it out.  I have to say, without exaggeration, this looks to me like it could be the best Gopher team we've seen since Clem was framed and railroaded out of town.  I'm very interested to see how they break my heart into a million pieces this year.

-  Looking like Morneau is back, eh?  This Twins team keeps showing me just enough to keep me interested, which I guess I can't complain about since last year I was checked out by like June.  And yeah, maybe it's sad that locking up a guaranteed split is enough to get us all tingly in our nether parts and yeah, Matt Capps continues to be the worst pitcher in history (but at least he mixed in a couple non-fastballs this time), and yeah, there's no way this team can win without some kind of major shocker or something coming from the starting pitching, but you know what, I'm entertained so far.  No, I still can't tell you anything about the bullpen guys beyond Capps and Duensing, but I do at least know now that they have some guy named Burton, and that's a victory for the good guys.

-  If you've been reading this blog too long and have been keeping track of all the times I've been right (which shouldn't be too hard) you may remember this piece I posted on Zack Greinke back in May of 2010.  Greinke was coming off his historically awesome 2009 year and had gotten off to a slow start and, thanks to digging into some advanced metrics it was clear to me he wasn't the same pitcher and I traded him immediately in our fantasy league, which turned out to be the right move because he was basically a slightly above average pitcher in 2010.  Since I'm a genius, I will briefly look at Tim Lincecum since he's sucked this year and figure out if this is real or a mirage (I promise I'll be brief, this is a random thoughts post after all, not a Tim Lincecum post)

Red flag #1 is he stopped throwing his slider, I assume for arm health reasons but I tried to look it up and after 1 link that didn't say anything meaningful I was bored.  It's not always bad to give up a pitch if it's not working, but that slider was Timmy's second best pitch behind his change-up last year (although to be fair it's been mediocre through his career).  This can be fixed simply by throwing the slider again (he threw it 15% of the time last season), which I read he was going to start doing again.

Red flag #2 is an alarming drop in fastball velocity, from 92.3mph to 90.3mph.  This has resulted in fewer missed bats, particularly in the strike zone (batters make contact 93% of the time on balls in the zone this year compared to 84% last year).  This is resulting in a lot of line drives (29% compared to 19% in his career) and a greater number of fly balls going out of the park (17% of flyballs have been HRs this year compared to 8% in his career).

Unlike Greinke, however, I think Lincecum will be just fine.  Despite the above he's actually increased his strikeout rate while decreasing his walk rate, always a positive move for a pitcher.  He's also suffering from line drive rates and HR/flyball rates that would be historically bad, along with a BABIP of over .400 which would be the highest ever and is unsustainable.  Basically, unlike Greinke who had just faded a bit, you either believe Lincecum will right the ship and be just fine or you believe he's fallen off a cliff and is done.  I believe the former, and actually I think I'm going to go try to trade for him right now, brb.

-  Here are my thoughts on the NHL playoffs so far:

-  I find it interesting that although I like cheeseburgers, I find the very thought of cheeseburger pizza disgusting, while at the same time I love tacos and absolutely adore taco pizza.  Man I'm whacky. 

-  Finally, happy birthday to Wonderbaby^TM, four years old today and an awesome kid who loves gymnastics, baseball, The Legend of Zelda, and a whole bunch of girlie crap.  Hard to believe that when I started this blog I didn't even have a kid yet.  Wow, I've been doing this for a long time.  You'd think I would have gotten better at it at some point.