Oh. Hello.

It has been a long damn time since I posted.  A month.  Not dead, just lazy.  I do plan to be back full force once Gopher basketball gets going, I really do.  For now, since at least 1 person is asking for a new post, I'll write something.

-  Welcome aboard, Eric Curry!  Quickly following up the Amir Coffey signing (yay!) the Gophers also picked up forward Eric Curry.  He's a combo type forward from Arkansas, and while he's not ranked on Coffey's level he's well regarded in his own right:  ranking #106 by 247sports national composite and the #21 ranked power forward.  He ended up besties with Coffey and once Amir signed Curry was pretty likely to follow in what hopefully becomes a trend.

He's described as a combo forward, which generally means he's either too fast for PF and too strong for SF or too weak for PF and too slow for SF.  Hopefully the former and it sounds good so far.  Scouting reports tout his athleticism and he's already got a decent amount of polish posting up which will be a nice change for a Gopher team that hasn't had a true post up artists since, I dunno, Ralph Sampson I guess.  Before you jump all over that remember Ralph had some moves.  Curry's other highly touted attribute is his "high motor" which means the Sampson comparisons can pretty much end now.

His weaknesses are he needs to get stronger and he needs more of a perimeter game.  Well, he's a high school senior right now, and I'm pretty sure the ESPN scouting report just rubber stamps "must get stronger" on early every recruit because that's a pretty common and understandable need.  The perimeter game should come around because, get this, he's a 78% free throw shooter.  Sign him up!


-  The Twins season ended, you may have learned, and I struggle whether or not to say this was a successful season though I lean towards yes.  We got to watch some meaningful baseball almost all the way to the final day of the season - that's good!  Then again, they cratered and didn't get the Wildcard spot - that's bad!  Though, they probably weren't as good as their record anyway - that's bad!  But we got to see a glimpse of many of the future hopefully building blocks of future success - that's good!  So I'll stick with slightly good.  Here's some other Twins stuff:

1.  Say good-bye to Trevor Plouffe.  I found some sight the other day that gave projected arbitration salaries for players, and Plouffe is guessed at $7.7 million.  I like Plouffe and he's a decent player who works hard and seems like a good dude and was part of some very bad teams without complaint, but at that salary, with Miguel Sano slated to be the third baseman for the next billion years, the world's most unmovable contract stuck at 1st, and a slew of younger, cheaper bats that need DH appearances and spot starts there's nowhere for him to play.  Whether via trade or simply non-tendering him I just can't see him sticking around, which is unfortunate because he's WonderBaby (who is now 7)'s favorite player, though she calls him Treasure Poof.

2.  Do the Twins need an ace?  More on the need for an ace later, if I feel like and/or remember, but I don't think this is doable.  They've tossed way too much money at Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, and Phil Hughes lately to really go after it, unless they were going to pony up the big bucks and do it right by going after David Price or Jordan Zimmermann or something but I don't see that happening.  With Hughes, Santana, Kyle Gibson, and a slew of young arms worth trying out I'm not even sure they need to do anything with the starting staff (but the bullpen?  Fire everybody).  There are enough decent names out there that if they can get a steal (a real steal, like that 2/$20 million contract the Cubs gave Jason Hammel) then it might be worth it.  But please, no 4 year deal for Jeremy Guthrie.  Please.

3.  Overall the future here seems pretty neat.  They need a catcher and a shortstop for sure and those are not very easy to fill so hopefully dudes who are already here can fill those roles, but other than Brian Dozier's second half cratering things seem pretty clear.  I hated the Torii Hunter signing when it happened because that money could have been better spent, but hell, maybe there is something to clubhouse chemistry and veteran leadership.  I'd be happy to see him back at a reduced rate assuming he's cool being the 4th outfielder at best.  Next year should be pretty fun.  Looking forward to it.


-  Seems like we are heading towards a Royals vs. Mets World Series.  I'm good with that.  Of the playoff teams you had teams that were too successful (Cardinals), too evil (Yankees), too rich (Dodgers), too big of assholish fans (Toronto), too unlikable (Rangers), too it hurts because it should have been us (Astros), and the Pirates, Cubs, Royals, and Mets, and you have to eliminate the Cubs because the whole Back to the Future thing is already more irritating the constant DFS commercials.

So really, Royals and Mets gives me probably two of my top three choices (with the Pirates).  And yeah sure, the Mets are terribly run organization and the Royals are kind of dickish and have the most clueless manager in the playoffs, but you're never going to get perfect.  It should be fun and I won't be annoyed no matter who wins.  What's wrong with that?  Plus the less R.A. Dickey there is to watch, the better.  Though I will really miss watching Kyle Schwarber play outfield.

And I'm determined to do a live blog of at least one World Series game.  I think I have almost every year, so I can't just stop now.

-  Wolves should be pretty fun.  Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng.  Could be a lot worse, right?  At least it should be fun.  A legit shot at back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, finding out if LaVine can be like, good, and seeing if Rubio can stay healthy is a good reason to at least occasionally watch.  I mean, Rubio running a break with those two wings and Towns trailing?  That's awesome.

And how good can Towns be?  Rookie of the Year is pretty much a lock, the only question is can he challenge for MVP.  I say yes.  Did you see him hitting those threes against no defense this offseason?  I mean, most guys can't do that.  And have you seen his preseason stats?  Averaging 10.7 pts, 6.7 rebs, and 1.0 blocks per game, but that's only in 21 minutes per game!  If you extrapolate that out to a whole game it comes out to something like 35 pts, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, and 7 blocks per game.  You know the last player to put up those kind of numbers?  Yep, that's right - Hot Sauce.  Towns is that good.


-  I know what you're thinking - "this blog sucks now."  But I know what else you're thinking, why is there no mention of this year's Gopher hoops team?  Well, I'm not ready yet.  I'll rip something off at some point, but right now it's like, no.  I am not ready to write about Joey King just yet, and I don't really know how to spin the Bakary Konate/Gaston Diedhiou stuff into a positive, nor can I figure out how to look forward to Carlos Morris being a big key to the season.  I'll get around to it, I swear.  For now, let me write something quick about other NCAAB stuff.

-  ACC is going to be garbage, relatively speaking.  Only North Carolina looks poised to be good.  Duke lost everybody and will now count on Grayson freaking Allen, Virginia I'm pretty sick of already so move on, Louisville lost literally their entire roster, Notre Dame without Jerian Grant is meaningless.  Miami and FSU could be semi-interesting but in general I'm expecting the Big 10 to take the challenge thing.

-  LSU is one of my big sleepers and you can still get them at 50/60-1 to win the National Championship.  Yes, they lost Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin, but they have a ton of guard play coming back and two absolute stud recruits in do everything big man Ben Simmons (likely #1 pick in next year's draft) and swingman Antonio Blakeney (who is now linked to the Louisville "scandal").  There are a lot of questions about the front court, though Simmons can maybe do it all, but all those guards back and a monster recruiting class scream contender to me.

-  Another team I like a lot is Cal (don't worry, Justin Cobbs is gone).  They pick up the #4 and #7 players in the entire country, both front court guys, who join their three best players, all guards.  Add in Cuonzo Martin, a really, really good coach, and you'd be a fool to pass them up at 20-1.  A FOOL!!

-  I might end up doing a Big Ten preview post, and if I do I promise I won't be like every other writer and say something like "based on talent the Badgers shouldn't be this high, but Bo Ryan blah blah blah barf"  No!  This is the year the Badgers suck ass.  They are gutted.  They have Nigel Hayes, who I love and is awesome, Bronson Koenig, who is annoying and super hateable and sucks, and that's it.  All of their other players suck.  They won't be bottom of the basement, but there's zero chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament.  None.  Zero.  None.

-  A Big Ten team I do like a ton this year is Purdue, though that seems like a not uncommon thought.  And their games are going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck to watch.  Massive rim protection in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas (Hammons is elite, Haas is 7-2 so should get there eventually) is joined by 6-9 Caleb Swanigan, one of the top couple center recruits in the country, and Raphael Davis is back who, you surely don't remember this, won B10 defensive player of the year.  They also couldn't shoot for shit last year and there's no real reason that should change.  I fully expect multiple games where they win without breaking 50 points.

-  Oh yeah, speaking of points we have a new shot clock now at 30 seconds.  Even better though they got rid of the 5-second closely guarded rule.  I'm not sure if that's a positive change as far as the game goes, but it's going to be super fun to go to games this year and hear morons yell "5 seconds!" one billion times because nobody reads anymore.  Also, speaking of going to games, Snacks and I were lining up our trip out to Sioux Falls with our sons to go check out the Gophers vs. Oklahoma State game and then right as we were figuring stuff out bam, it turns out my parents' have this dumb christmas party that same day where we are supposed to be blackjack dealers or something.  Thanks a lot, mom and dad.

-  Perry Ellis, the 37-year old Kansas power forward, is back for another year.  He has now surpassed Wade Lookingbill, Jess Settles, and Brian Cardinal for longest tenured player in college basketball history.

- I don't know.  I guess that's all for now.

-  Oh yeah.  Also Rick Pitino 100% knew there were sex parties for recruits and also that happens at every single school.  Haven't you seen He Got Game?

Twins Roster Preview - Hitter guys

With the depressing but not terribly surprising news that the Twins sent all the interesting young people back down to the minors and kept a bunch of lame-o veterans on the big league roster, I suppose it's time to turn my thoughts to baseball.  Also, there's a 75% chance I hate the college basketball national champion (actually probably more like 98%) so I'm going to ignore that until it's on TV because of course I'll watch.  Anyway, here's what we're dealing with from the guys who will try to hit the ball this year.

CATCHER:  It'll be Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto once again.  Although it's kind of boring, this is sadly probably the Twins strength given Suzuki's solid season in 2014 and Pinto's possible upside.  The handling of the catcher position last year was bizarre.  Signing Suzuki in case Pinto wasn't ready made sense, but then extending Suzuki and demoting Pinto was the kind of move a contending team would make, and in case you forgot the Twins were not a contending team.  Suzuki's value was likely at an all-time high given his career year and All-Star appearance and moving him at the trade deadline was probably the smart move, but here we are.

Suzuki will of course be the starter again.  Last year he put up a slash line of .288/.345/.383 which smashed his career numbers.  His peripherals suggest some regression but not as much as I had feared, so he should be solid behind the plate again.  He's not horrible defensively either, so the Twins have a legit, competent player.  Neat.  Hopefully he gets traded.  Pinto had a solid minor league track record of hitting and had a splashy debut in 2013, but last season his bat deserted him to the tune of .219/.315/.391 and given that he's a pretty terrible fielder most/all of his value comes from his bat.  He did start hitting once demoted down to AAA last year, and even in struggles he still showed good plate discipline and power when he did make contact so there's probably not too much to worry about.  Other than his path being completely blocked by the stupid 2-year deal given to Suzuki.  Trade him!

INFIELD:  Your guy Joe Mauer will be the first baseman again, which is pretty brutal.  Mauer's line of .277/.361/.371 would be slightly above average for a middle infielder, but that OPS ranked 15th among all first basemen who qualified last season, just a slight tick better than Garrett Jones.  I don't know what's up with Mauer, but an increase in strikeouts coupled with a complete loss of power is fairly terrifying given his salary.  He's stopped hitting fly balls, and the fly balls he does hit don't go anywhere.  I don't know why or what he's doing differently but whatever it is somebody please fix it!

I'm pretty stoked about the middle infield combo of Danny Santana and Brian Dozier, and these guys could be fixtures of the team when it gets good again which it will eventually so shut up.  A lot of Santana's detractors point to his BABIP of .405 and say it's unsustainable, and it is, but I found a neato expected BABIP calculator that takes a players line drive percent and all that other stuff and spits out what the BABIP should be and his came out at .369 last year, so that .405 represents a bit of luck but not this massive amount you'd usually expect from a number north of .400.  I expect him to bat close to .300 again and play a shaky shortstop.

Dozier just signed what could be a steal of a deal at 4/$20, assuring the Twins won't have to shell out big money any time soon if he continues to get better or even stays the same.  Of course they could be stuck with him if he goes back to sucking, but I choose to believe that isn't going to happen.  He doesn't hit for a high average which makes old people sad, but he has good power and great plate discipline, not to mention an above average glove and according to fangraphs base running metric (takes into account both stealing bases and taking an extra base on a hit) he was the 3rd best base runner in the game.  Add all that up, and his hair, and you get one of the best second basemen in all of baseball.  Too many tools for him to breakdown.  He's going to be a nice bargain for the next four years, and probably traded at the deadline in 2018.

Trevor Plouffe will be back at third again, probably for the last time.  With Miguel Sano breathing down his neck and still no indication Sano's going to be anything other than a third baseman this is Plouffe's last chance to prove his value.  Whether he ends up being a trade casualty (probably the best case scenario), is non-tendered in the offseason, or shows enough they want to keep him around and make him an outfielder or something he's probably done at third.  He's had a solid, if mostly unspectacular (other than that one time he was super hot hitting homers) 3-4 year run and has worked hard to go from a terrible fielder to an above average one, all while being a good, not great, hitter.  He's been an important part of a consistent 90-game loser and it's time to start winning.  Not this year, of course, be real, but next year maybe we can think about it.

Backing these nerds up we have the two headed crap factory of Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez who I still don't know why he was resigned.  Escobar showed a weird flash of power last year with 35 doubles and is a capable defender all over the place so I like having him around.  Nunez is terrible at everything.

Designated Hitter should be a fun spot with Kennys Vargas (who will also back-up at 1B) now here since he can hit the crap out of a baseball.  Vargs knocked out nine dingers and ten doubles in just 234 plate appearances, racking up an isolated power metric that would have put him in the Top 40 in the majors if he had qualified.  Considering he's like 16 years old or something that bodes well for the future.  Assuming more experience helps move his walk and strikeout rates closer to his minor league numbers (a dangerous assumption, to be sure), he could be in for a big year.  He crushed the ball in spring training with 1 HR every 14 ABs and everyone loves to watch fat guys launch baseballs out of the yard so expect him to be a fan favorite.

OUTFIELD:  What a mess.  Aaron Hicks ruined everything, and he's back in the minors again meaning Jordan Schafer, he of the career .621 OPS, will man center, flanked by the immobile Oswaldo Arcia and the ancient Torii Hunter in what is basically guaranteed to be the worst defensive outfield in the majors.  Backing up a bunch of pitchers who don't strike anyone out.  Great plan.

Ok I guess there's some upside.  Arcia is still really young at 24 and he was one of just three players under 24 last year to hit more than 20 home runs.  He still strikes out a ton but at least his power and walk rates got better last year, which is a good sign for future development.  His fielding also improved from "oh my god" to "jeez this guy is terrible", which might be his ceiling.  Hunter has been pretty much the same player the last five years, at least offensively, and if he can do it again and provide "leadership" or whatever he's probably worth having around.  That being said, if you think he's any kind of defensive wizard anymore you're sorely mistaken as he's now well below average even at a corner spot (stupid Father Time!).  That said he can't be any worse than the Willingham/Kubel/Parmelee trio of death that spent time out there last year, so he's got that going for him.

Schafer is the wild card, sort of, mainly because the Twins opted against giving Hicks a third year out of camp (or something radical like bringing Eddie Rosario up ahead of schedule) despite Schafer never really doing much of anything batted ball-wise.  He's fast, bad at hitting, and white so you know he's gritty and full of hustle and heart, but in his 147 plate appearance sample with the Twins last year he managed to hit exactly league average and it was, by far, the most successful stint of his major league career.  Somehow between the Twins and Braves last year he stole 30 bases (in 37 attempts) despite just 240 plate appearances which seems completely insane to me since "getting on base" isn't really in his wheelhouse but clearly he can run, which feels exciting.  He can play a passable CF as well, so I guess it's better than throwing an inanimate carbon rod out there.

Outfield back-ups will include a handful of starts from Escobar, that god damn Nunez, and teeny tiny Shane Robinson who goes by Suga Shane on Twitter.  He'll fit in with the Twins since he's proven he can't hit over 452 career plate appearances.  He's a 30 year old non-prospect who didn't hit in the minors either until he was much older than his competition, but a mediocre Spring Training won him a job over Hicks, though perhaps giving Hicks a regular role at AAA is for the best and I really don't know who else would be better than Robinson since they didn't sign anybody else and let's be honest it probably would have been a former Twin who was well beyond his prime anyway.  Robinson is a good fielder so he'll probably have some value plugging in as a defensive replacement in the late innings when the Twins stumble into a lead.


Overall, looking like a so-so offense.  They'll most likely have above average hitters in 7 of the 9 spots and the other two either have serious bounce back potential (Mauer) or tremendous speed as an asset (Schafer).  The bench is pretty bad unless Pinto bounces back but it's the American League so there probably won't be too much pinch hitting anyway.  Switch hitting Escobar is the only possible lefty swinger off the bench but he's been brutal against righties in his career so yeah, I'd expect a lot of sticking with the main nine guys.  It's a decent offense.  The real problem is the pitching, which I don't have the heart, energy, or ambition to tackle right now.  Later.

Minnesota Twins and Roster Change from Last Year

With the Gopher basketball season now essentially over and spring training getting started, I have begun starting to kind of think about baseball.  Usually when I think about baseball I think about the Twins, unfortunate as that is.  So to start, I'll take a look at the roster changes vs. last year, which you should have probably guessed because of the title of this post.

ADDITIONS:

- OF Torii Hunter.  I was really pissed about this signing and although I still think it's pretty stupid I'm not nearly as hot as I once was.  In the long run it doesn't really make much difference since the team is going to be bad with or without him (Vegas over/under for season wins is 70.5), he's only on the hook for 1 year, and if they used that $10 million to sign someone like Jason Hammel that wasn't really going to make much of a dent in the win column anyway.  I'm not sure I buy that he can really help Aaron Hicks, but I suppose it's possible and Hicks can't really get any worse.  Hunter isn't much of a fielder anymore, but he's still an above average bat (well, he was last year at least) and I suppose somebody has to play outfield.  It seems I've upgraded from hating this signing to ambivalence.

- SP Ervin Santana.  Speaking of ambivalence, it's quite strange for a signing of this length and this much money but I really have no opinion on it.  It's just like a shrug.  The Twins signed a competent major league pitcher on a slight overpay for the next four years.  Ok, great.  Sure.  I suppose knowing that even if Santana is great this year it won't really mean much.  The important thing is when the Twins put themselves into contention again, assuming it happens in 2016 or 2017 like they seem to be planning, he'll likely be a part of the rotation so hopefully he doesn't fall off an age cliff.

- P Tim Stauffer.  I've always liked Stauffer because he was featured in The Last Best League, an awesome book you should read, so it's cool that the Twins signed him to 1 year, $2.2 million deal.  At one point he was thought to be a future top of the rotation type starter for San Diego, but a shoulder injury that caused him to miss all of 2008 pretty much derailed that.  He returned, and was a decent starter for the Padres for a couple of years before another injury (elbow this time) knocked him off course again.  For the past two seasons now he's been a pretty good reliever in San Diego, putting up a 3.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 134 innings.

Helping his effectiveness has been a solid uptick in strikeouts since the move to the bullpen, going to 8.8 per nine innings compared to 6.2 in his starting days.  Though his velocity hasn't changed, since the elbow injury he's abandoned his slider and started throwing a change up a lot more, which has proven to be his best pitch each of the last two seasons, per Fangraphs.  His overall numbers look good for a prominent place in the bullpen, but they do come with one caveat:  Petco Park.  The Padres' home stadium is well known as the most friendly pitchers' park in the league, and Stauffer's home/road splits are not pretty.  We'll find out how much that stadium really mattered soon enough.

- P Stephen Pryor.  Picked up last year in the great Kendrys Morales trade, I added Pryor in here because he's on the 40-man roster which means there's at least a decent chance he ends up pitching in the bigs at some point.  I wrote up Pryor here after the trade, and to sum up he's a formerly intriguing prospect who is now a gamble after injuries wrecked him.  He was a big time strikeout pitcher (and wild, as many of those are) with a big time fastball, but post injury was only throwing in the low 90s.  If he can get the heater back up to 95+ where it used to be he could be a useful bullpen arm.

- P J.R. Graham.  The Twins picked up Graham from Atlanta in the Rule 5 draft, which means he has to stay on the major league roster or be offered back to the Braves.  Like Pryor, Graham has been derailed by injury, but at one point he was good enough to crack some Top 100 prospects lists so the potential is still there, though he was awful at AA last season.  The Twins did the same thing with Ryan Pressly two years ago, keeping him on the roster and having him pitch in mostly lower leverage situations and he seems to have worked himself into a serviceable reliever, so this kind of move has worked out before (Johan Santana, if you recall, was also a Rule 5 pick-up).  Pressly's minor league numbers were quite a bit better than Graham's so I'm not all that optimistic, but Graham's potential was much better at one time so it's probably a wash.  Hopefully he's back all the way from injury and the Twins stole a good one.


DELETIONS:

-  OF Josh Willingham.  Yeah he was traded last year but I'm including him here because he was around for a while, nobody was paying any attention to the Twins at the end of last season, and I guarantee you somebody is going to ask you this season "Hey what happened to Willingham?".  If you recall, the Twins traded him to the Royals post non-waiver trade deadline because nobody claimed him off waivers because really nobody wanted him at his salary and because he was too injured to be of any value.  That sucked because two years ago they could have gotten a ton for him when he was healthy and hitting bombs.  The Royals took a chance because they desperately needed some pop in right field but Willingham didn't hit particularly well for them and then went 0-2 with two whiffs in the World Series (the guy the Twins got pitched all of 7 innings for New Britain before their season ended.  Stay tuned).  Willingham then retired from baseball at age 36.  Why not.

-  SS Pedro Florimon.  He was actually claimed off waivers in late September by the Nationals which I either never heard or didn't remember, and then was claimed this offseason by the Pirates.  Pittsburgh already has an all glove no hit shortstop in Jordy Mercer, Mercer looks like a slugger next to Florimon.  Remember when he hit .096 last year?  That was neat.

-  RP Jared Burton.  Signed a minor league deal with the Yankees after the Twins turned down his $3.6 million option, the right call by the Twins considering he kept getting worse.  Dynamite in his first Twin season as a set-up man and pretty good in his second, last year his strikeouts fell off a cliff, he started walking too many people, and he stopped being a groundball pitcher.  Good time to part ways, and given all he got was a minor league deal it seems the league wasn't exactly clamoring for his services.

-  1B Chris Colabello.  Selected off waivers by the Blue Jays, he was then designated for assignment and has been assigned to their Triple A affiliate in Buffalo.  Always a AAA masher, Colabello never really did much with the Twins outside of his torrid start to 2014 (then crashed back to earth).  Toronto is a good spot for him, considering (if he makes the big club) he'll be backing up Justin Smoak who has pretty much struggled since he broke into the league despite his lofty prospect pedigree.  With the Twins having Kennys Vargas now, they're all set at 1B/DH.  Hopefully.

-  RP Anthony Swarzak.  Filled the long, long relief role well for the Twins the past three years after failing as a starter though last year was pretty rocky, Swarzak was released by the Twins and signed a minor league deal with the Indians.  Cleveland has a pretty solid rotation and a ton of candidates to fill in if someone goes down, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Swarzak catch on in the bullpen, likely in the same role he filled with the Twins

-  OF Chris Parmelee.  The Twins opted not to resign Parmelee, making him a free agent, and he recently signed a minor league deal with Baltimore.  Like Colabello, Parmelee has always hit well in the minors but never had that success translate when given a chance in the big leagues.  He was given every opportunity to win an outfield job win the Twins, but in three years of semi-regular play he put up a line of just .238/.304/.371.  When you combine that with some absolutely atrocious defense, well, you can see why the Twins were done with him.  He has a chance to win a role with the Orioles as a fifth outfielder.

-  SP Kevin Correia.  He was actually traded last year late to the Dodgers who wanted him for some reason, in exchange for a player to be named later or cash.  It ended up being cash because Correia was terrible.  He was awful as a Twin, getting knocked around regularly, and then somehow managed to be even worse with a move to the National League.  He lasted just three starts with the Dodgers before being pulled from the rotation, and then lost three games in extra innings as a reliever the rest of the way.  All in all, his ERA as a Dodger was 8.03 in 24 innings.  The Dodgers opted not to sign Correia.  Neither has anyone else.  I am so glad we don't have to watch him anymore.

-  SP Sam Deduno.  Nabbed off waivers by the Astros late last year, and he's the only one on this list I'd probably rather have than not have.  I realize still believing in a 30 year old pitcher with chronic control issues who has struggled to crack a rotation as terrible as the Twins the last few years is not a real good strategy, but I never said I was a smart man.  He may very well never amount to much more than an inconsistent spot starter or a middle reliever, but man you remember how good he was in the World Baseball Classic?  Remember that 7-inning, no runs, 2 hits, no walks, 9 strikeout game?  Man when he had it going he really looked like a big league pitcher.  Houston mostly used him out of the bullpen after they got him, but his final appearance of the year was his only start as an Astro and he went 4 innings, allowing 2 hits, 1 walk, and no runs while striking out four.  Most of Houston's starters are pretty crappy, so he could snag a rotation spot or at least a spot start here and there.  I hope we don't regret his leaving.

-  RP Matt Guerrier.  Seems weird, since he's always on the team, but this year he's finally gone.  If you recall last year they signed him after three crappy and injury filled years in the National League (3 years? Wow).  Then they released him in Spring Training to avoid paying some kind of bonus before signing him back again the next day.  He was awful in 28 innings with the Twins before they designated him for assignment, but because of his veteran status Guerrier had the option to refuse the minor league assignment and become a free agent - which he did.  Nobody signed him and he remains unsigned to this day.


The Twins also have a new manager in Paul Molitor with an all new staff, but what the hell do I know about how Molitor or those other guys coach?  I'm just glad they moved on from Ron Gardenhire because although he did some good things here and seemed to be a good locker room type leader, his constant getting kicked out of games and his unwillingness to think outside "the book" drove me crazy.  This team needed new blood.

Notes on Baseball, and a Little Hoops

It's the middle of winter, I have a billion days off, and there's lots going on that I haven't gotten to.  So here's some of that.

-  First off, the Torii Hunter signing.  Ugh.  Hate it.  Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons.  So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay!  I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks.  And they're going to suck this year.  The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.

A bridge to 2016 you say?  No.  He's not good anymore.  He's just not.  He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it.  He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope.  Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have.  Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are.  Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value.  Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster.  Look at the outfielders.  There are no words.  Just horrible.

Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt.  The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought.  Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine.  I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays).  I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series.  I don't want to be patient any more.  Let's just move along.

-  More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal.  I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything.  The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).

Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog.  That's the hope anyway.  Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia.  That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching.  Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.

-  The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal.  Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous.  Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck.  I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price.  Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?

Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke.  His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year.  That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note:  I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million.  If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive.  Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced.  I'm hoping for Hughes.

-  Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves.  Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him.  Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck.  He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on.  As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves.  Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago.  Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings.  Hopefully he does well.

-  Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time.  They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks.  Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away).  They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation.  Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.

Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways.  Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more.  Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic.  Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career.  I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.

This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender.  They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore.  If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH.  It's a fun time to be a Padre fan.  I hate them.

-  Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky?  My goodness they just overwhelm teams.  The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes.  And everyone is buying into the concept.  I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.

Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night.  The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville.  Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game.  Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday).  Depressing?  Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.

-  Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10.  That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season.  I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's.  These are all horrible, horrible losses.  These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets.  Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).

I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss.  Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well.  Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing.  As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.

-  Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.

Is Kevin Correia like, Good?

When the Twins signed free agent starter Kevin Correia to a 2 year, $10 million contract this year there were two distinct reactions from fans - you either got "who?" or "oh please god no tell me you're kidding what why?"  I was in the second group.  Correia had been a distinctly pedestrian pitcher for the Pirates and Padres, rolling up a grand total of 0.3 wins above a replacement level player in the last three years.  After kicking around three organizations going back to 2003 and only once having what might be called a "quality" year, the $10 million seemed to be a bit of a ridiculous outlay for another Nick Blackburn.

That's basically what Correia was, an NL version of Correia.  He doesn't strike people out (less than 5 K/9 each of the last two years), doesn't walk anybody (less than 2.5 BB/9 last two years), throws his fastball right around 90mph, and relies on groundballs to get outs.  Basically your best case scenario was probably 180 innings with an ERA around the mid 4s - certainly not worth $10 million.  However Correia has pitched very well this year, going 7+ innings while giving up 3 or fewer runs in all three of his starts, giving him 3 quality starts and a very nice 2.95 ERA.  So that begs the question, is this luck (same old guy just a hot streak) or is this a brand new Correia?  By the way I honestly don't know, but I suspect it's luck.  Let's find out.

First, let's check out the quickest way to see if he's getting lucky:  BABIP (and I will include links to all the nerd stats, although you should at least be somewhat familiar with most of them by now it's the 21st century grandpa).  This year Correia is at .292 vs. his career number of .294.  This is good news for Correia.  Perhaps he is a better pitcher this year.  Next up, Fielding Independent Pitching (both versions).  This is not as good news.  Correia's ERA (2.95) is significantly better than his FIP (3.92) and xFIP (4.20), which are both more in line with his career numbers.  This suggests that so far this year Correia is pitching very similarly to how he always has, but something is affecting how many runs have actually crossed the plate.

Looking a little deeper two things immediately stand out:  his LOB% and his HR/FB.   LOB% simply means how many runners reach base against him and then fail to score.  Generally this number will be higher for strikeout pitchers which Correia most assuredly is not, yet so far this year 81.9% of his baserunners have failed to score, which rates as excellent and would have been the second best of any starter last season.  Comparing that to his career mark of 71%, which is slightly below average, and clearly something is happening here.

Similarly, his HR/FB (simply what % of fly balls he allows end up as home runs) is a very solid 8.7% this year, which is above average.  Once again, when we compare that to his career mark of 10.7% we see a pretty drastic difference.  One point you'd like to make here if you were defending Correia would be that Target Field is a tough park to hit home runs at so it wouldn't be out of line to see a low number here and you're right - From 2010-2012 Target Field saw 86 home runs hit the same number of at-bats it would take an average park to see 100.  However in that same time frame Correia pitched at two extreme pitchers parks - PNC in Pittsburgh (74 HR) and Petco in San Diego (78 HR) - so, much like the Karate Kid in My Cousin Vinny, your case doesn't hold water.

Basically Correia is getting zero swings and misses which is resulting in the fewest strikeouts in his career (a laughable 3.4 per 9 right now) and more base runners.  So far he's done a great job "scattering" his hits and avoiding the long ball and that's accounting for the low ERA and quality outings thus far.  It's up to you if you believe that is something he can sustain despite being so much better than his career numbers, particularly when there's nothing here to suggest he's pitching any better than usual and might even be pitching a little bit worse.  Personally?  I'm thinking we're going to see some hard regression to the mean, and it's going to be ugly.

Get used to this, bromigos

Adding this because I find it fascinating, but Starlin Castro has yet to walk this year in 54 at-bats (prior to tonight where he still didn't walk).  Turns out he's tied with Torii Hunter with those 54 ABs for most at-bats this year without a walk.  In fourth place with 42 ABs is your guy Carlos Gomez.  The most interesting thing looking at this list of guys without a walk is that they all suck. Seriously other than Castro and Hunter it's a bunch of crap like Daniel Descalso, Chris Getz, and Brent Lillibridge.  I don't know if you can see this without a subscription but just look at - seriously look, it's terrible.  Know the worst part?  Ron Gardenhire would KILL to have most of these guys on his team.  Don't deny it.

I hope the Red Sox Lose

Sitting here at my parents' house (due to a flight tomorrow early and a babysitting issue we are spending the night over here) and having a nice glass of a fine Captain Morgan and taking in the Red Sox vs. Angels game.  Naturally, I hate the Red Sox more than I hate communists and  spiders combined, so I hope to hell they lose.  We're picking this up in the bottom of the third, tie ball game at 0-0.

-  By the way, since I'm here I saw my mother is currently reading Lady Chatterley's Lover (the book).  Yes, I get it's supposed to be a classic, but of course I had to tease her about reading smut.  Somehow this led to my mom talking for like five minutes and using words like penis and phallus.  I think I need another drink.  A double.  Or triple.

-  Now she just used the C-word.  Not as a curse word, but explaining how they use "that word" a lot in her smut book.  I swear to god I'm not making this up.  And now I'm getting the whole synopsis of this book.  It's basically porn.  Some chick is married and screwing around but her husband told her to go ahead and get pregnant by some other dude.  I don't know.  I just came here to watch baseball, jesus.

-  Somebody's on second for the Angels with one out.  God please I need to change the subject of my brain.

-  Did  you know Jon Lester once had cancer and then came back and pitched a no-hitter? 

-  I should also mention my mom went to a wine-tasting tonight.  Now she won't stop talking.  I can't even concentrate on the game - I have no idea what's happening, but I can tell you that some daughter of someone my mom knows is not behaving very well.  I don't know.  I can't keep up with the stories.

-  Bobby FatBreau walks, putting two on and one out for Torii Hunter, my mom's favorite player of all-time.  So NOW we get to watch the game.  I see how this works. 

-  Now the conversation has turned towards my blog, and she said I really need to "clean it up."  Well F that.  How am I supposed to clean it up with all this smut talk she's throwing my way.

-  Hunter walks.  I don't think I've ever seen that before.  First time for everything I guess.  So now we're loaded up for Guerrero.  I haven't looked up his stats this year, but he used to be pretty awesome.  Time to break this game open Vladdy.

-  Vlad strikes out, swinging at three straight pitches and reminding me of Jose Morales.  He used to remind me of Kirby Puckett, now he reminds me of Morales.  I'm guessing he must have hit some sort of age wall here.

-  My dad now called to have me check the playoff tickets that came in the mail today and tell him what section and row, so I missed the first two outs but now Roided-Ass David Ortiz is up.  He hit no home runs early but hit 27 late, I wonder if he re-learned how to swing or if he started up another cycle.

-  I just checked and this was Vlad's worst year of his career and by a lot.  Also Ortiz whiffs.  My mom seems to be slowing down.

-  Did you know Vlad led the league in caught-stealing in 2002?  It's true.

-  I think Lester is wearing a Crain-necklace.  Probably why the ump just made a horrendous call against the Sox.  Kendrick on first and two outs and I think someone named Mathis is up.  He might be a catcher but don't quote me on that.

-  Well I don't know if he's a catcher but I know he sucks because he just struck out.  Lester is seemingly developing quite well, too bad the Twins couldn't snag him in that stupid Johan trade.  Yeah, that's working out beautifully.  Christ, the centerpiece of the Yankees offer was Phil Hughes and he's developed into a stud 8th inning setup guy - more than the Twins can say they got out of their actual trade right now, apologies to C-Go fans.

-  Did I ever tell you how I almost played softball with J.D. Drew.  True story.  It was when he was holding out and playing for the Saints, and he was staying at a hotel down town where my friend Bear was working and they kind of got to be buddies.  We were playing on the same softball team and Bear asked him if he would play with us, he said he would, but before we had our next game he finally signed and obviously couldn't play softball with a bunch of weirdos.  Frickin' Scott Boras.  One more week.  One more week.

-  Wait a minute.  They're shooting something into the moon tonight?  That's the coolest thing I've ever heard.  Or, more accurately, an unmanned spacecraft launched in June will finally crash into the moon tonight in an attempt to find out if there is water or ice under the moon's surface.  This seems pretty elaborate to test for something they could have found out with, you know, a shovel, in the 1960s.  I'm guessing this is cover because the government has found out the Ko-Dan Armada is preparing to attack, and this is a covert test of our outer space missile defense system (OSMDS).  You heard it here first.

-  It seems I'm not paying any attention to the game, but it's now the bottom of the fifth with 1 out, runners on 1st and 3rd, and your boy Torii Hunter up again.  And now he's no longer up because he just hit the longest home run of all-time to give the Angels a 3-0 lead.  Jon Lester:  he could beat cancer, but he couldn't beat Torii Hunter.  Also my mom would like you all to know that she loves Torii, even though he doesn't have the sweetest ass in the league.  That belongs to Johnny Damon.

-  People who don't love baseball are idiots.  Seriously.  I bet if you did a correlation study where variable a = IQ and variable b = love of baseball, r would equal like, 0.9.  For real.

-  Did you see my Rockies tied up their series at 1-1?  I'd report more on it, but the game was at 1:30 when I was at work because I have a real job.  Rockies guy, take it away.

-   I really didn't like On The Road.  Sorry Dharma Bum.  Sorry.  I also feel like I'm getting really random.  I think their might be some rum in this rum and coke.

-  Football and IQ is probably like a -0.8.  LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

-  Game update:  Angels up 3-0, bottom of the seventh.  Care level:  dropping.

-  Bobby Fatbreau is now 0-0 on the game with four walks.  God that gives me such a boner.

-  Hunter hit by pitch.  Do you have any idea how many times I wanted to do that when he was with the Twins? 

-  Good thing the Sux brought in Mendoza or Ramirez or whatever Mexican that was so he could walk, HBP, and give up a hit.  Bases loaded and nobody out.  Good night Boston, you freaking retahds.

-  Would you believe my parents down own a pizza cutter?  True story.

-  You know, Nick Blackburn is a better pitcher than A.J. Burnett.  Unfortunately, the Yankees have a much better offense than the Twins, obviously.  Just get a split in NY and let's get a little more dome magic, am I right?

-  Some japanese guy almost got out of the jam but then instead gave up a two run double.  So close.  My dad's home now.  He was at his bowling league tonight and then the bar.  I'll be sure to let you know if he says anything wacky.

-  Well now they're talking about my academic career and how I got Cs a lot because I would never ever hand in homework but would ace all the tests.  Yeah, a non-conforming genius who plays by his own rules.  What up, ladies?

-  We're now getting a rundown of the bowling league tonight, so instead I'll tell you what's funny about the guys who are already getting thrown out as possible Free Agent targets of the Twins:  Chone Figgins and J.J. Hardy.  Guess who two of the top Targets are of the Tigers, according to my Tiger fan friends?  Yep.  And if you don't think there's about 15 other teams with those guys on their radar, you don't know dick.

-  this game is lame, my parents aren't being funny, and I have to get up before dawn to head to the airport, so I'm going to shut 'er down.  Look for a scheduled post of an ACC preview at around 1:30 or so tomorrow, then I'll be back Wednesday - so no Weekend Review this week.  Hopefully you'll figure out a way to get over it.  [of course, as I sign off I hear not only my parents discussing the merits of Nick Punto, but also hear my dad go on an absolute rant about Cub being sold out of roasted and salted soynuts, so I may be missing out on the good stuff]

Twins = World Series Bound (and some Basketball)

First off, I added three new blogs to the link list over on the right. The National Anthem before a Cubs Game (TNABACG), a general Minnesota sports blog, and Aaron Gleeman and Stick and Ball Guy - two Twins blogs. Check them out. Additionally, I'm going to try to recap as many Twins games as I can, and certainly which ever ones I get a chance to watch - although with a kid on the way in the next few weeks and a new job, who knows if I'll have time. Hopefully Dawg and Sidler will post plenty of Twins related material for your amusement.

Livan Hernandez: According to Bert, "Livan Hernandez isn't like Johan Santana, he has to change speeds to be successful." Wasn't Santana's out pitch his changeup? Thanks again for all your wisdom, Bert. That's probably why you aren't in the hall of fame, jackass. Anyway, Hernandez was beautiful last night. Kept the ball down, didn't walk anybody, pretty much made the Angels hit his pitches on the ground, and gave up just two runs in his seven innings. I doubt he can keep this up all year, but nice start to be sure.

Carlos Gomez: Granted it's just one game, but he really impressed me. And I'm not even talking about the double, the bunt hit (holy crap is this kid fast), or the two steals. He showed a lot of patience at the plate, not only by drawing a walk but even in his strikeout at bat he drew the count out to 3-2. That was my big knock on the kid, but if he's figured out how to be a little more patient (not quite Rickey Henderson, which was another Bert comment last night) he could be deadly up there already. He's going to be a fan favorite in a hurry.

Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan: Good to know that if the Twins can get to the eighth with a lead, they have a very good chance of winning as these two were lights out once again. They each gave up a hit (Neshek's was a bloop that will be caught in the future as the left side of the defense gets used to each other and the dome) and struck out four between them, including a big Neshek K of Vlad Guerrero.

Torii Hunter: It was nice to see Hunter get a standing ovation. For all about him that drove me crazy, I can't deny his heart, effort, leadership, or charisma and what he meant to this franchise over the years. Of course, it was even nicer to see him strikeout in a close game in the ninth.

Johan Santana: Naturally, Santana rolled through his first NL start, going seven and giving up 3 hits with 8 K's. He's really good.


A couple quick basketball items:

1. There is a new ESPN Top 100 out. In it, Rodney Williams comes in at 66 and Royce White at 71. Fellow Gopher target DaShonte Riley is ranked #54.

2. Speaking of Royce, in case you missed it, he's transferring to Hopkins. He'll be joining top recruits Raymond Cowles, Trent Locket, and Mike Broghammer on a loaded Royals team that will surely be the top team in the State. Hopefully Royce can pull his act together and make the most of this opportunity.

3. Former UCLA Bruin J.R. Henderson is dominating in the Japanese league, and has become a full-fledged Japanese citizen, including changing his name to J.R. Sakuragi. His real first name is Milton. So he's now Milton Sakuragi. Must be odd to walk around Japan being 6-9, what with all the 5-2 people and ninjas and all.

W's Baseball Predictions

Baseball season is upon us, and, since baseball is the second best season of them all behind college basketball, I may as well share some predictions for the upcoming year as I watch opening day from the comfort of my couch (FYI - if you have Direct TV there's a free preview of the baseball package this week). Some of this is Twins-related, and some just MLB related overall. Have no fear, a full Final Four preview will be up soon enough.

1. As Sidler already touched on, Joe Mauer will struggle to knock in runs this year. If Gardy is smart, he will hit Mauer second where he belongs. With Mauer's lack of home run power, and Carlos "Pedro" Gomez and Adam Everett the two guys in front of him in the lineup, he'll struggle to get to 65 rbi, much less the 80 that Snacks foolishly predicted. I think he'll have a solid year, .300 - .310 range, with 25-30 doubles and around ten homeruns, but there's no way he's getting to 80 rbi.

2. Delmon Young will take a step forward, especially power wise. Young hit well last year, .288/.316/.408 with 13 home runs, and I expect him to improve. I like to believe the experience he got last year will lend itself to more patience, or at least I hope to go so. And his .408 slugging last year was the worst he had put up at any level. With a full year under his belt, hopefully he's figured out major league pitching, and not vice-versa. I am cautiously optimistic we'll see .300/.350/.500 with 20-25 home runs.

3. At the same time Young improves, I expect Morneau and Cuddyer to slide backwards further, and not just because of their new fat contracts. Nobody seems to be talking about how far Morneau slid last year. Batting average down 50 points, obp down 30 points, and slugging down almost 70 points. The one thing that makes me think he may recover is that his strikeout rate remained the same while his walk rate went up. Still, I expect him to slide and don't think he'll get to even 30 home runs this year. Cuddyer isn't as big a concern, despite a down year last year because in general his numbers were about the same other than slugging, and he actually cut down on his strikeouts. That being said, don't expect a return to his form from two years ago. I don't expect him to get to 20 home runs, or hit over .270.

4. Twins outlook: Not good. All the offensive uncertainty from the "stars", not even looking at the black holes on offense at third, short, second, center field, and possibly DH, leave the Twins unable to score runs. Looking at a confusing mishmash of a rotation leaves an even worse feeling. If you remember, The Sidler compiled some projections for the rotation and it looked like this:



Ouch. And that even seems optimistic on some of those guys. Livan is going to be a disaster. Bonser is a 4/5 starter at best. Slowey is going to get ripped to shreds in the big leagues. Maybe Blackburn can pitch. I've never seen him throw, so he's my only hope. Baker is the only one I have any faith in becoming an even league average starter, Liriano excepted. Who knows what happens with him. He seemed to be coming along this spring, and I think it was a good move to start him in the minors. I'm predicting (hoping) he gets called up around June/July and is able to at least approach his former form.

5. What does this uncertain offense + mishmash rotation mean, combined with a solid bullpen and a step down in defense? Dead last in the AL central, even behind the Royals. Would be the worst team in the entire American League, except that the Orioles are in an even bigger mess, and just getting worse.

6. Torii Hunter will be average. There are a lot of reasons to predict Hunter to have a bad year, chief among which is that I don't like him. Additionally, his walk rate plummeted from bad to really bad last year. There are good reasons to predict a good year for him, coming off two really excellent years and going to a team with a much, much, much better offense that the Twins. I expect him to have a career high in RBIs due to greater opportunity, but his numbers will go down overall. Somewhere in the .270/.333/.470 range with around 20 home runs or so.

7. In contrast to his ex-teammate, Johan Santana is going to rock the national league to Dwight Goodien levels. I know most of his numbers moved the wrong way the last couple of years, but he's in the National League now. Not only is there a free out with the pitcher, much like the Twins have in their lineup with Adam Everett, but the NL is the worse league of the two. Plus it helps being on the Mets and not having to face them. I expect him to shred the league, with an ERA in the mid-2's, a WHIP of about 1.00, and a K/9 of 9-10. Seriously. And he'll probably hit .275 to boot.

8. A Yankee collapse begins. Think about it, other than A-Rod, who is awesome, Cano, who might be the best 2b in the AL, and Jeter, who is gay, there are question marks everywhere on the Yankees roster. Posada absolutely busted through what he should have done last year, and will likely regress to the mean like a mofo. Johnny Damon's numbers have been in major declines for the last few years, including losing 90 points off his slugging last year, and posted a OPS+ of 97 (league average player = 100), and most 35 year olds don't reverse this trend. Bobby Fatbreu is in basically the exact same boat, except he hasn't plummeted quite as far just yet. Melky Cabrera's upside is basically an average major league outfielder. The Jason Giambi/Shelley Duncan 1B combo is a joke, and Hideki Matsui is coming off knee surgery and his worst season at 34 years old.

Even more, the rotation is going to be a suckfest. Chien-Ming Wang has been a very good pitcher the last two years, and could very well continue, but he outperforms his metrics every year and could be due to collapse (Baseball Prospectus gives a collapse a 34% probability). Pettitte is the only other decent pitcher on that team, and he's starting the year on the DL. As much as it pains me to say it, as I am a huge fan, Mike Mussina might be done. The back of the rotation is two kids, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, who are supposed to have a ton of talent, but so did David West, Todd Van Poppel, and Brien Taylor. The bullpen is basically Rivera and Chamberlain, and I don't see anyway Chamberlain can be moved into the rotation when their third best guy is LaTroy Hawkins.

In store is a very bad year by Yankee standards, which will lead to a freakout by the younger Steinbrenners, anxious to make a name for themselves and get out from daddy's shadow. They will sell off the very same talent they refused to give up for Johan this past offseason for much lesser talent (expect Adam Dunn and/or Rich Harden to be Yankees). This will cause the same cycle the Yanks were stuck in during the early nineties and lead to more suckitude. You heard it here first.

9. The Indians will miss the playoffs due to Sabathia and Carmona spending too much time on the DL. Sabathia threw 198, 188, 197, and 192 innings the four years prior to throwing 257 last year. Carmona went from 102 innings two years ago to 230 last year. That means injuries, and that means no playoffs for the Tribe.

10. Others who will suck: Mike Lowell, Kaz Matsui, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Manny Corpas, Gary Sheffield, John Lackey, Andruw Jones, Ryan Braun, Brett Myers, Jason Bay, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Pena, Alex Rios

11. Others who will rock: Justin Verlander, Micah Owings, Jeff Francoeur, Erik Bedard, Clay Buchholz, Geovany Soto, Nick Swisher, Homer Bailey, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzski, Wandy Rodriguez, Billy Butler, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Takashi Saito, David Wright, Cole Hamels, Matt Capps, Tim Lincecum, BJ Upton, Vernon Wells, Dustin McGowan, Jason Bergmann

12. AL Playoff Teams: Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, Toronto

13. NL Playoff Teams: New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia

14. World Series: Mets over Tigers

15. MVPs: Ryan Howard, Vlad Guerrero

16. CY YOUNGS: Johan Santana, Justin Verlander

17. Rookies of the Year: Evan Longoria, Matt Kemp

Happy Thanksgiving

Good triumphed over evil last night, as Rico led Pepperdine to a 92-81 victory over hated Long Beach State and Dan Monson in overtime last night. Unfortunately, Monson still has some kind of soul-crushing mind control over Rico, as he only managed four points on 1-6 shooting, but added four assists and three steals. It says the attendance for that game was 715. Yeesh.

And I hear Torii Hunter signed with the Angels for 5 years, $80 million. Five years, $80 million for a 32 year old center fielder, who has lost most of the range he once had, is coming off an improbable career year in a contract season, and strikes out twice as much as he walks. Generally, older players who still hold value as they age have one thing in common: good plate discipline. I'm going to go ahead and predict that the last two years off that contract are going to be a killer for the Angels.

Kansas State -2 vs. George Mason
Gonzaga -6.5 vs. West Kentucky
South Carolina -2.5 vs. Penn St
USC -14 vs. San Diego

Yesterday: 7-3
Season: 36-28

Craig Monroe, 2008 World Series MVP

Check it out, The Sidler is going to write about non-Indiana sports!

I don't know about the rest of you, but I cleared my late October 2008 calendar after hearing the Twins, in a stroke of genius, traded for Craig Monroe.

Kidding aside, what exactly did new Twins GM Bill Smith, he of the most boring name in sports, add to the roster today for the price of a player to be named later?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4824

Craig Monroe stunk last year. He was awful, near-Punto awful even. He had the third-worst VORP (value over replacement level) "value" in the league, trailing only Little Nicky Punto and Angel Gonzales, whoever that is. Monroe's .638 OPS (on-base plus slugging) was by far the worst of his career, .100 points lower than his rookie year, since becoming a regular MLB player.

But Craig Monroe hasn't always been Puntonian, and even when he stunk, he would have provided some value to the Twins, namely vs. left-handed pitching. Monroe's .496 slugging % vs. LHP would have put him behind only former-Twin Torii Hunter (just admit it, he's gone) in 2007. Gardy can't figure out platoons, but hopefully his anemic bat vs. RHP stays out of the starting lineup.

I'm not going to pretend to be more than an amateur expert, but Monroe's pre-2007 stats look a lot like a mirrored Jacque Jones, who could never hit LHP. If used properly, guys like Monroe and Jones can provide plenty of value to a team, especially one with payroll constraints like the Twins. There is also hope that he has a Jose Guillen-like rebound, who went from a Monroe 07 season to hit .290, get on base at a .350 clip, and hit with 23 HR for the Mariners.

With the state of the Twins OF/DH spots, this is a move worth making, even if casual fans and KFAN hosts will mock and ridicule it. Now if we get to April and this is THE MOVE of the off-season, then feel free to mock and/or ridicule. But this is a low risk move with more reward potential than Aaron Boone or Tony Batista ever offered.

If nothing else, when compared to a Darin Erstad signing, this is a great move.

I am Now Convinced I am Right

Sid Hartman disagrees with me and says the Twins need to have Hunter back for 2008.

This makes me certain that the correct move is to trade him before the deadline.

Time to Trade Hunter?

Is it time for Torii Hunter to be traded? I don't know, but it's certainly getting to be a possibility. Hunter will be a free agent after this year, and will command at least $15 mil per season once he hits the open market, probably more like $17.

According to reports, the Twins haven't started talking to him about an extension, which makes me think they are going to wait until after the season. If Hunter goes into this off-season as a free agent, I don't see any way he signs with the Twins once he sees the kind of numbers other teams are offering him.

What sucks, is that the trading deadline is July 31. There is a second deadline in August, but Hunter would have to clear waivers to be eligible to be traded, and I don't see that happening - so it would have to be by July 31, three short weeks away.

The Twins are currently 8 games behind the Tigers for the central division title, and are 5.5 behind Seattle for the Wildcard. They are still in position to make a run at the playoffs, but it's not a lock by any means. I would hate to lose Hunter and get nothing in return.

The other issue is how effective will Hunter be and for how long. The best way I know of to look at this is using PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus. I'm not going to get into all the math here, but it basically looks at past performance, similar players historical performance, and uses mathematical formulas to project probable statistics for a player's career. It's basically the kind of think baseball math nerds like me live for.

Hunter is hitting .301 this year, PECOTA puts him at .272
Hunter has an OBP of .342 and SLG of .558, PECOTA has him at .336 and .468
Hunter is on-pace for 35 homeruns and 47 doubles, while PECOTA predicted him at 19 HR and 25 doubles.
He has a career OPS+ of just 104, but this year is at 136.

All this tells me is that Hunter is having an absolute career year, will get paid for this kind of performance, and then will come back to earth, meaning whoever pays him what is needed to sign him, will end up regretting it big-time. According to Baseballreference.com, his career is most similar right now to Preston Wilson. Would you give Preston Wilson $15 million for four years?

From watching Hunter, you can see that his defensive ability, although still well above average, has begun to drop off. And according to PECOTA, it'll just get worse. Not to mention that in that fourth year of the contract, when he's still making $15 million, his most likely statistics will be .270/.327/.447 - slightly above average (2.0 WARP).

I think it's time to trade Hunter while his value is at an all-time high. His performance is just going to go down, and it's time to cash in before it's too late (see: Moss, Randy and Garnett, Kevin).

ALSO: If you like baseball math, check out Fire Joe Morgan. Freakin' hilarious.

My Face! My Valuable Face!

Torii Hunter was hit in the face this afternoon in the first inning by a pitch from Zack Greinke. It's unknown if it hit him directly in the face or grazed off his shoulder first.

Hunter started to charge the mound after being hit, but crumpled to the ground in pain before he got very far. He probably would have won too.

He left the game and was replaced by Jason Tyner. Early reports are Hunter is Day-to-Day.

Torii Hunter is Going to Jail

Ok, not really. But he did violate a rule that could have earned him a minimum of a three year suspension.

According to ESPN.com, Hunter sent the Kansas City Royals four bottles of Dom Perignon to congratulate and thank them for their sweep of the Detroit Tigers last September, which allowed the Twins to catch and pass them for the Central Division title. Which it turned out didn't really matter because the Twins sucked against the A's in the playoffs (see above picture.)

There is a little known rule which has a lot of blah blah blah in it, but basically boils down to the fact that you can't give a gift to another team for beating or attempting to beat another team, with the punishment being ".....declared ineligible for not less than three years."

The Twins contacted the Royals, who are returning the bottles unopened, so it appears Toriiiiii has escaped punishment. When reached for comment, Hunter said, "You know, the real crime here is that I'm paid as much as I am, when I'm a mediocre hitter and an overrated fielder. It's nice to know the fans out there, like WWWWWW's mom, are blinded by the fact that I've robbed a few homeruns and have a nice smile, so Terry Ryan has to keep me around to keep the rubes happy."