Oh. Hello.

It has been a long damn time since I posted.  A month.  Not dead, just lazy.  I do plan to be back full force once Gopher basketball gets going, I really do.  For now, since at least 1 person is asking for a new post, I'll write something.

-  Welcome aboard, Eric Curry!  Quickly following up the Amir Coffey signing (yay!) the Gophers also picked up forward Eric Curry.  He's a combo type forward from Arkansas, and while he's not ranked on Coffey's level he's well regarded in his own right:  ranking #106 by 247sports national composite and the #21 ranked power forward.  He ended up besties with Coffey and once Amir signed Curry was pretty likely to follow in what hopefully becomes a trend.

He's described as a combo forward, which generally means he's either too fast for PF and too strong for SF or too weak for PF and too slow for SF.  Hopefully the former and it sounds good so far.  Scouting reports tout his athleticism and he's already got a decent amount of polish posting up which will be a nice change for a Gopher team that hasn't had a true post up artists since, I dunno, Ralph Sampson I guess.  Before you jump all over that remember Ralph had some moves.  Curry's other highly touted attribute is his "high motor" which means the Sampson comparisons can pretty much end now.

His weaknesses are he needs to get stronger and he needs more of a perimeter game.  Well, he's a high school senior right now, and I'm pretty sure the ESPN scouting report just rubber stamps "must get stronger" on early every recruit because that's a pretty common and understandable need.  The perimeter game should come around because, get this, he's a 78% free throw shooter.  Sign him up!


-  The Twins season ended, you may have learned, and I struggle whether or not to say this was a successful season though I lean towards yes.  We got to watch some meaningful baseball almost all the way to the final day of the season - that's good!  Then again, they cratered and didn't get the Wildcard spot - that's bad!  Though, they probably weren't as good as their record anyway - that's bad!  But we got to see a glimpse of many of the future hopefully building blocks of future success - that's good!  So I'll stick with slightly good.  Here's some other Twins stuff:

1.  Say good-bye to Trevor Plouffe.  I found some sight the other day that gave projected arbitration salaries for players, and Plouffe is guessed at $7.7 million.  I like Plouffe and he's a decent player who works hard and seems like a good dude and was part of some very bad teams without complaint, but at that salary, with Miguel Sano slated to be the third baseman for the next billion years, the world's most unmovable contract stuck at 1st, and a slew of younger, cheaper bats that need DH appearances and spot starts there's nowhere for him to play.  Whether via trade or simply non-tendering him I just can't see him sticking around, which is unfortunate because he's WonderBaby (who is now 7)'s favorite player, though she calls him Treasure Poof.

2.  Do the Twins need an ace?  More on the need for an ace later, if I feel like and/or remember, but I don't think this is doable.  They've tossed way too much money at Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, and Phil Hughes lately to really go after it, unless they were going to pony up the big bucks and do it right by going after David Price or Jordan Zimmermann or something but I don't see that happening.  With Hughes, Santana, Kyle Gibson, and a slew of young arms worth trying out I'm not even sure they need to do anything with the starting staff (but the bullpen?  Fire everybody).  There are enough decent names out there that if they can get a steal (a real steal, like that 2/$20 million contract the Cubs gave Jason Hammel) then it might be worth it.  But please, no 4 year deal for Jeremy Guthrie.  Please.

3.  Overall the future here seems pretty neat.  They need a catcher and a shortstop for sure and those are not very easy to fill so hopefully dudes who are already here can fill those roles, but other than Brian Dozier's second half cratering things seem pretty clear.  I hated the Torii Hunter signing when it happened because that money could have been better spent, but hell, maybe there is something to clubhouse chemistry and veteran leadership.  I'd be happy to see him back at a reduced rate assuming he's cool being the 4th outfielder at best.  Next year should be pretty fun.  Looking forward to it.


-  Seems like we are heading towards a Royals vs. Mets World Series.  I'm good with that.  Of the playoff teams you had teams that were too successful (Cardinals), too evil (Yankees), too rich (Dodgers), too big of assholish fans (Toronto), too unlikable (Rangers), too it hurts because it should have been us (Astros), and the Pirates, Cubs, Royals, and Mets, and you have to eliminate the Cubs because the whole Back to the Future thing is already more irritating the constant DFS commercials.

So really, Royals and Mets gives me probably two of my top three choices (with the Pirates).  And yeah sure, the Mets are terribly run organization and the Royals are kind of dickish and have the most clueless manager in the playoffs, but you're never going to get perfect.  It should be fun and I won't be annoyed no matter who wins.  What's wrong with that?  Plus the less R.A. Dickey there is to watch, the better.  Though I will really miss watching Kyle Schwarber play outfield.

And I'm determined to do a live blog of at least one World Series game.  I think I have almost every year, so I can't just stop now.

-  Wolves should be pretty fun.  Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng.  Could be a lot worse, right?  At least it should be fun.  A legit shot at back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, finding out if LaVine can be like, good, and seeing if Rubio can stay healthy is a good reason to at least occasionally watch.  I mean, Rubio running a break with those two wings and Towns trailing?  That's awesome.

And how good can Towns be?  Rookie of the Year is pretty much a lock, the only question is can he challenge for MVP.  I say yes.  Did you see him hitting those threes against no defense this offseason?  I mean, most guys can't do that.  And have you seen his preseason stats?  Averaging 10.7 pts, 6.7 rebs, and 1.0 blocks per game, but that's only in 21 minutes per game!  If you extrapolate that out to a whole game it comes out to something like 35 pts, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, and 7 blocks per game.  You know the last player to put up those kind of numbers?  Yep, that's right - Hot Sauce.  Towns is that good.


-  I know what you're thinking - "this blog sucks now."  But I know what else you're thinking, why is there no mention of this year's Gopher hoops team?  Well, I'm not ready yet.  I'll rip something off at some point, but right now it's like, no.  I am not ready to write about Joey King just yet, and I don't really know how to spin the Bakary Konate/Gaston Diedhiou stuff into a positive, nor can I figure out how to look forward to Carlos Morris being a big key to the season.  I'll get around to it, I swear.  For now, let me write something quick about other NCAAB stuff.

-  ACC is going to be garbage, relatively speaking.  Only North Carolina looks poised to be good.  Duke lost everybody and will now count on Grayson freaking Allen, Virginia I'm pretty sick of already so move on, Louisville lost literally their entire roster, Notre Dame without Jerian Grant is meaningless.  Miami and FSU could be semi-interesting but in general I'm expecting the Big 10 to take the challenge thing.

-  LSU is one of my big sleepers and you can still get them at 50/60-1 to win the National Championship.  Yes, they lost Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin, but they have a ton of guard play coming back and two absolute stud recruits in do everything big man Ben Simmons (likely #1 pick in next year's draft) and swingman Antonio Blakeney (who is now linked to the Louisville "scandal").  There are a lot of questions about the front court, though Simmons can maybe do it all, but all those guards back and a monster recruiting class scream contender to me.

-  Another team I like a lot is Cal (don't worry, Justin Cobbs is gone).  They pick up the #4 and #7 players in the entire country, both front court guys, who join their three best players, all guards.  Add in Cuonzo Martin, a really, really good coach, and you'd be a fool to pass them up at 20-1.  A FOOL!!

-  I might end up doing a Big Ten preview post, and if I do I promise I won't be like every other writer and say something like "based on talent the Badgers shouldn't be this high, but Bo Ryan blah blah blah barf"  No!  This is the year the Badgers suck ass.  They are gutted.  They have Nigel Hayes, who I love and is awesome, Bronson Koenig, who is annoying and super hateable and sucks, and that's it.  All of their other players suck.  They won't be bottom of the basement, but there's zero chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament.  None.  Zero.  None.

-  A Big Ten team I do like a ton this year is Purdue, though that seems like a not uncommon thought.  And their games are going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck to watch.  Massive rim protection in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas (Hammons is elite, Haas is 7-2 so should get there eventually) is joined by 6-9 Caleb Swanigan, one of the top couple center recruits in the country, and Raphael Davis is back who, you surely don't remember this, won B10 defensive player of the year.  They also couldn't shoot for shit last year and there's no real reason that should change.  I fully expect multiple games where they win without breaking 50 points.

-  Oh yeah, speaking of points we have a new shot clock now at 30 seconds.  Even better though they got rid of the 5-second closely guarded rule.  I'm not sure if that's a positive change as far as the game goes, but it's going to be super fun to go to games this year and hear morons yell "5 seconds!" one billion times because nobody reads anymore.  Also, speaking of going to games, Snacks and I were lining up our trip out to Sioux Falls with our sons to go check out the Gophers vs. Oklahoma State game and then right as we were figuring stuff out bam, it turns out my parents' have this dumb christmas party that same day where we are supposed to be blackjack dealers or something.  Thanks a lot, mom and dad.

-  Perry Ellis, the 37-year old Kansas power forward, is back for another year.  He has now surpassed Wade Lookingbill, Jess Settles, and Brian Cardinal for longest tenured player in college basketball history.

- I don't know.  I guess that's all for now.

-  Oh yeah.  Also Rick Pitino 100% knew there were sex parties for recruits and also that happens at every single school.  Haven't you seen He Got Game?

Hey Some Sports Stuff Happened

Some of you who still actually read this blog have noticed I haven't posted in a while.  Mostly because I was driving across the country to Utah with my wife and two idiot kids.  We covered more than 2,500 miles and traveled in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Utah over the last 15 days, spending nights in 3 different hotel rooms and 2 different condos.  We saw Mount Rushmore, the black hills (freaking gorgeous), a bunch of cool Mountains and stuff, swam in 3 different pools, saw some dinosaurs, a moose, a bunch of antelope, and more cows and horses than you could ever want.  We drove through a true ghost town (like, a bunch of buildings and nobody living there), Deadwood (Billy the Kid died there), went through the world's biggest drug store (Wall Drug in Wall, SD) and a town with a sign advertising population 15.  I drank vodka tonics out of a sports bottle at the pool, boxed wine out of a paper cup in a pitch black hotel room while the kids slept, and snuck beer in the garage at a mormon birthday party. 

Best of all, my kids got to spend time with their grandparents and spent 9 full days with their cousins who are about the same age and whose mom is their mom's sister and best friend and they loved every minute of it.  There were many tears when we left, and my daughter vowed to be pen pals with her cousin while my son wailed "but we can't leave cousin Ike is my best friend!!!!"  I dreaded doing this before we started (even though I knew it was something we should do). Yes, there were moments where it got difficult (like when the bridge in Wyoming was washed out and we had to back track 50 miles, or when the road in Wyoming was washed out and we had to go out of our way by about 130 miles), but the kids held on and were troopers despite a couple 12 hour days in the car and it was a fantastic trip all around.  We will definitely do it again in a few years.  And I'm going to dread every moment leading up to it.

Any way, there was some sports stuff that happened.  Also Wyoming can go right to hell.

-  The big news is that Gopher commit Jarvis Johnson will not be medically cleared to play for the Gophers due to his heart condition.  This on the heels of another commit, Jonathan Nwankwo, not getting clearance to play due to some indeterminate academic issue.  So what the hell is going on here?  This isn't the first time the basketball team has run into issues with the admissions office - recall Djuan Piper or Gaston Diedhiou, just in the last year.  Honestly I'm pretty tired of it.

I get that the University of Minnesota is among the top academic schools in the country - US News ranked it #71 in its Top Academic Universities in the nation list - and that's cool.  I mean, I like seeing the U up there on that list, much better than being someone like UNLV who received a "Rank not Published" because they were so bad.  The problem is, if you want to be an athletically relevant school sometimes you have to bend the rules a bit.  Duke ranks #5, but William Avery, who seemed like a complete dope, got in there because he could ball.  USC ranks #22 and I'm pretty sure O.J. Mayo is a moron.  Georgetown ranks #20 and they let in Kenny Brunner, who ended up trying to kill somebody with a god damn samurai sword.

Look, I'm not an idiot.  If there's a danger to Jarvis, and unacceptable danger, then sure, hold him out, of course.  The kid's safety is paramount here so I'm not necessarily bashing this decision, just the overall state of the admissions department which seems to constantly be at odds with the basketball program.  I know you can't let in some degenerate who can't read, but Nwankwo landed at VCU, which may not have the lofty academic status of the U but it still ranked in the top 200.  Come on already.  The Gopher athletic program will never rise to top tier status if the rest of the University actively works to hold it down.  Admitting some borderline or slightly worse than borderline students who can ball the fuck out isn't going to put a black eye on the school.  This program is cursed, and the tight ass admissions people sure as hell aren't helping.

And, if you'll allow me to be human for a moment, this has to just suck for Jarvis.  The kid just had his dream pulled out from underneath him. Despite the report that he and his family were kind of blindsided by this it doesn't appear at this time that he's looking to transfer.  That makes me think there's some legit shit going on here and not some kind of conspiracy - nobody wants another Hank Gathers situation.  This is really the wrong issue to start railing on the U's admissions department because this one might make sense, it's just the latest in a series of setbacks so it's a little bit of burnout here.  Ugh.  Just sick of it.

-  The Twins started their regression with a 2-9 stretch, but have bounced back with a 3-1 stretch and still sit at 37-31 and second place in the AL Central.  I pretty much expect this kind of thing.  Most likely they'll play around .500 ball the rest of the year and end up staying in contention for a Wild Card berth and things will stay interesting.  I'm pretty excited about that, though it's a negative also.  If the Twins hang around in contention it means guys who should probably be trading this year, especially Trevor Plouffe since his value is probably at an all-time high right now, won't be.  

Hey I like Plouffe, I'm a big fan and my kid has some big giant face thing of his.  But his numbers are better than how he's actually playing and it's unlikely a 29 year old suddenly hit his peak, he's a free agent after this year, and the best prospect in the system other than Buxton is a 3B.  He's prime trade material.  Not to mention Mike Pelfrey, who they better not resign/extend because he is terrible no matter what his fluky ERA is.  

Of course, it's intoxicating to think about the playoffs, too.  If they can just get in, anything can happen.  Who knows how this shakes out, the Twins could end up buyers or sellers, but most likely they'll stand pat and that's probably the right move.  Of course, when you're about to get a pitcher like Ervin Santana back that's as good as making a trade anyway.

Some other Twin things:

-  Byron Buxton is here!  He picked up his third career hit today, but that 2-20 start wasn't exactly encouraging especially since other prospects on his level have produced so far this year (Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Carlos Correa).  With all the traveling and stuff I've only seen one of his at-bats and he looked fine (despite striking out) so it's hard to know if he's overmatched right now or if it's just bad luck so far, but we can look into some nerd stats to get an idea.  

First thing that stands out is a BABIP of .143.  Essentially no matter how much a batter may be struggling that is completely non-sustainable (the lowest BABIP for anyone in 2014 was .231 by Brian McCann).  His strikeout rate is a kind of scary 33%, but it's not all that surprising considering he's been around 25% his first year at each level.  His 7.7% line drive rate and 21.4% hard hit rate both suggest he's making terrible contact when he does hit the ball, however, and that's not good.  His swing rate is a little high and his contact rate a little low, but nothing too concerning.  

There's plenty to like here still.  His speed and defense give him value even when his bat might not, and I have to believe his bat will come around simply because he's always hit and also because I have to believe it.  Give him time.  Nothing to panic about.  Right?

-  I'm pretty bummed about Danny Santana.  I know the .405 BABIP pegged him as pretty much an automatic regression candidate, but he had a really good line drive rate so I thought you know, maybe.  But the line drive rate has gone down, the K rate has gone up, and the walk rate has completely disappeared leading to an embarrassing .525 OPS, second worst in the majors among hitters with at least 185 PAs.  Couple that with Eduardo Escobar's hot start and sending him down was pretty much a no brainer.  Escobar's cooled off now, however, and Santana is crushing at Rochester (.370/.412/.543) so he'll be back up, and hopefully he'll be all straightened out.

-  I don't know if anyone has noticed, and by that I mean I think everyone has noticed, but Joe Mauer has been worth -0.5 WAR this season, meaning he's worse than replacement level.  Meaning you take some shlub like Chris Colabello or Chris Parmelee or whoever the equivalent would be right now in AAA and plug him in and he'd give you more than Mauer.  Mauer, who is currently getting paid $23 million to completely suck at an offensively premium position.  His slugging and OPS are both the worst in the American League among first basemen with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title, which means he's playing one of the most traditional power positions without supplying any power (or anything offensively, really).  

His walk rate has slipped to a career worst as well, so you can't even point to his OBP (a pedestrian .329, 70 points or so lower than his career number) and say "well, at least he's getting on base."  His "soft contact" percentage is the worst it's ever been, and he's already popped up in the infield twice this year.  You can say that doesn't sound like much, and in some cases it isn't, but from 2011-2014 he only popped up a total of two times - not a misprint.  

I don't know where to go from here.  He's making $23 million per year through 2018 so he's impossible to trade unless you include something extremely premium or pick up a lot of his salary, which is pointless.  The only way he's remotely tradeable is if he ups his production level, which seems unlikely since his 2009 season, the one which got him that big contract, was a complete outlier.  His 28 homers that year were more than double his next best year.  His batting average was nearly 40 points better than his second best year.  His ISO was 60 points higher, his WAR over 2 wins better than any other year in his career, and his HR/FB was almost double any other season.  Just a complete fluke.

At this point, as frequent commenter and long time reader RGHrbek mentioned in the comments, he's blocking Kennys Vargas, who needs at-bats.  He could end up blocking Plouffe or Miguel Sano's move to first, and by taking up one of the 1B/DH spots he's also blocking Josmil Pinto's development.  Seriously, if you could only have two of the three out of Vargas, Mauer, and Plouffe, don't you take Vargas and Plouffe?  Mauer needs to be traded just to free up playing time for the younger dudes, but he's completely untradeable so here we are.  Hopefully he can turn it around and give the team a little average and on base skills if nothing else.  Oh and he's completely horrid defensively too, don't forget.  Neat stuff.

-  If you have kids go see Inside Out.  It was pretty awesome.

Yeah that'll do for now.

Twins Roster Preview - Hitter guys

With the depressing but not terribly surprising news that the Twins sent all the interesting young people back down to the minors and kept a bunch of lame-o veterans on the big league roster, I suppose it's time to turn my thoughts to baseball.  Also, there's a 75% chance I hate the college basketball national champion (actually probably more like 98%) so I'm going to ignore that until it's on TV because of course I'll watch.  Anyway, here's what we're dealing with from the guys who will try to hit the ball this year.

CATCHER:  It'll be Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto once again.  Although it's kind of boring, this is sadly probably the Twins strength given Suzuki's solid season in 2014 and Pinto's possible upside.  The handling of the catcher position last year was bizarre.  Signing Suzuki in case Pinto wasn't ready made sense, but then extending Suzuki and demoting Pinto was the kind of move a contending team would make, and in case you forgot the Twins were not a contending team.  Suzuki's value was likely at an all-time high given his career year and All-Star appearance and moving him at the trade deadline was probably the smart move, but here we are.

Suzuki will of course be the starter again.  Last year he put up a slash line of .288/.345/.383 which smashed his career numbers.  His peripherals suggest some regression but not as much as I had feared, so he should be solid behind the plate again.  He's not horrible defensively either, so the Twins have a legit, competent player.  Neat.  Hopefully he gets traded.  Pinto had a solid minor league track record of hitting and had a splashy debut in 2013, but last season his bat deserted him to the tune of .219/.315/.391 and given that he's a pretty terrible fielder most/all of his value comes from his bat.  He did start hitting once demoted down to AAA last year, and even in struggles he still showed good plate discipline and power when he did make contact so there's probably not too much to worry about.  Other than his path being completely blocked by the stupid 2-year deal given to Suzuki.  Trade him!

INFIELD:  Your guy Joe Mauer will be the first baseman again, which is pretty brutal.  Mauer's line of .277/.361/.371 would be slightly above average for a middle infielder, but that OPS ranked 15th among all first basemen who qualified last season, just a slight tick better than Garrett Jones.  I don't know what's up with Mauer, but an increase in strikeouts coupled with a complete loss of power is fairly terrifying given his salary.  He's stopped hitting fly balls, and the fly balls he does hit don't go anywhere.  I don't know why or what he's doing differently but whatever it is somebody please fix it!

I'm pretty stoked about the middle infield combo of Danny Santana and Brian Dozier, and these guys could be fixtures of the team when it gets good again which it will eventually so shut up.  A lot of Santana's detractors point to his BABIP of .405 and say it's unsustainable, and it is, but I found a neato expected BABIP calculator that takes a players line drive percent and all that other stuff and spits out what the BABIP should be and his came out at .369 last year, so that .405 represents a bit of luck but not this massive amount you'd usually expect from a number north of .400.  I expect him to bat close to .300 again and play a shaky shortstop.

Dozier just signed what could be a steal of a deal at 4/$20, assuring the Twins won't have to shell out big money any time soon if he continues to get better or even stays the same.  Of course they could be stuck with him if he goes back to sucking, but I choose to believe that isn't going to happen.  He doesn't hit for a high average which makes old people sad, but he has good power and great plate discipline, not to mention an above average glove and according to fangraphs base running metric (takes into account both stealing bases and taking an extra base on a hit) he was the 3rd best base runner in the game.  Add all that up, and his hair, and you get one of the best second basemen in all of baseball.  Too many tools for him to breakdown.  He's going to be a nice bargain for the next four years, and probably traded at the deadline in 2018.

Trevor Plouffe will be back at third again, probably for the last time.  With Miguel Sano breathing down his neck and still no indication Sano's going to be anything other than a third baseman this is Plouffe's last chance to prove his value.  Whether he ends up being a trade casualty (probably the best case scenario), is non-tendered in the offseason, or shows enough they want to keep him around and make him an outfielder or something he's probably done at third.  He's had a solid, if mostly unspectacular (other than that one time he was super hot hitting homers) 3-4 year run and has worked hard to go from a terrible fielder to an above average one, all while being a good, not great, hitter.  He's been an important part of a consistent 90-game loser and it's time to start winning.  Not this year, of course, be real, but next year maybe we can think about it.

Backing these nerds up we have the two headed crap factory of Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez who I still don't know why he was resigned.  Escobar showed a weird flash of power last year with 35 doubles and is a capable defender all over the place so I like having him around.  Nunez is terrible at everything.

Designated Hitter should be a fun spot with Kennys Vargas (who will also back-up at 1B) now here since he can hit the crap out of a baseball.  Vargs knocked out nine dingers and ten doubles in just 234 plate appearances, racking up an isolated power metric that would have put him in the Top 40 in the majors if he had qualified.  Considering he's like 16 years old or something that bodes well for the future.  Assuming more experience helps move his walk and strikeout rates closer to his minor league numbers (a dangerous assumption, to be sure), he could be in for a big year.  He crushed the ball in spring training with 1 HR every 14 ABs and everyone loves to watch fat guys launch baseballs out of the yard so expect him to be a fan favorite.

OUTFIELD:  What a mess.  Aaron Hicks ruined everything, and he's back in the minors again meaning Jordan Schafer, he of the career .621 OPS, will man center, flanked by the immobile Oswaldo Arcia and the ancient Torii Hunter in what is basically guaranteed to be the worst defensive outfield in the majors.  Backing up a bunch of pitchers who don't strike anyone out.  Great plan.

Ok I guess there's some upside.  Arcia is still really young at 24 and he was one of just three players under 24 last year to hit more than 20 home runs.  He still strikes out a ton but at least his power and walk rates got better last year, which is a good sign for future development.  His fielding also improved from "oh my god" to "jeez this guy is terrible", which might be his ceiling.  Hunter has been pretty much the same player the last five years, at least offensively, and if he can do it again and provide "leadership" or whatever he's probably worth having around.  That being said, if you think he's any kind of defensive wizard anymore you're sorely mistaken as he's now well below average even at a corner spot (stupid Father Time!).  That said he can't be any worse than the Willingham/Kubel/Parmelee trio of death that spent time out there last year, so he's got that going for him.

Schafer is the wild card, sort of, mainly because the Twins opted against giving Hicks a third year out of camp (or something radical like bringing Eddie Rosario up ahead of schedule) despite Schafer never really doing much of anything batted ball-wise.  He's fast, bad at hitting, and white so you know he's gritty and full of hustle and heart, but in his 147 plate appearance sample with the Twins last year he managed to hit exactly league average and it was, by far, the most successful stint of his major league career.  Somehow between the Twins and Braves last year he stole 30 bases (in 37 attempts) despite just 240 plate appearances which seems completely insane to me since "getting on base" isn't really in his wheelhouse but clearly he can run, which feels exciting.  He can play a passable CF as well, so I guess it's better than throwing an inanimate carbon rod out there.

Outfield back-ups will include a handful of starts from Escobar, that god damn Nunez, and teeny tiny Shane Robinson who goes by Suga Shane on Twitter.  He'll fit in with the Twins since he's proven he can't hit over 452 career plate appearances.  He's a 30 year old non-prospect who didn't hit in the minors either until he was much older than his competition, but a mediocre Spring Training won him a job over Hicks, though perhaps giving Hicks a regular role at AAA is for the best and I really don't know who else would be better than Robinson since they didn't sign anybody else and let's be honest it probably would have been a former Twin who was well beyond his prime anyway.  Robinson is a good fielder so he'll probably have some value plugging in as a defensive replacement in the late innings when the Twins stumble into a lead.


Overall, looking like a so-so offense.  They'll most likely have above average hitters in 7 of the 9 spots and the other two either have serious bounce back potential (Mauer) or tremendous speed as an asset (Schafer).  The bench is pretty bad unless Pinto bounces back but it's the American League so there probably won't be too much pinch hitting anyway.  Switch hitting Escobar is the only possible lefty swinger off the bench but he's been brutal against righties in his career so yeah, I'd expect a lot of sticking with the main nine guys.  It's a decent offense.  The real problem is the pitching, which I don't have the heart, energy, or ambition to tackle right now.  Later.

Twins and the Trade Deadline

We're nearly at the all-star break, which means we're a fair way past the first half of the season but everyone's required to refer to it as the first half anyway.  It's also a good time to look back on what has transpired thus far and what I hope to see in the 2nd half, mainly because that's what everyone does at the all-star break.  The most exciting part of the second half for a non-contending team is the trade deadline, so here's what the Twins should be looking to do:

First off, the Twins are not contending for the Wild Card, so put that out of your silly little head right now.  They are currently 9.5 out of the second Wild Card spot with six teams either ahead of tied with them.  It's not happening, no matter how optimistic Dan Gladden wants you to be.  In that case, the Twins need to be ready and willing to sell off anybody and everybody who isn't a clear part of their future plans.  That means everybody outside of Joe Mauer (untradeable in any case), Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, Kyle Gibson, and probably Eduardo Escobar (just in case he's actually good) should be available for the right trade, and yes I'm including Glen Perkins.

Perkins is an elite level closer - yes elite - who is having the unluckiest year of his career (career high BABIP and career low LOB%) and is still putting up good numbers including a career best K/9 and BB/9.  Considering he'll make just about $17 million through 2017 with a team option for $6.5 mil in 2018, he's an extremely valuable commodity - assuming you can find a team who overvalues relief pitching.  The Twins won't be a contender until at least 2016 in my opinion, so if you can get a monster offer for Perkins you have two more seasons to develop a new closer.  The Tigers, Jays, Yankees, and Angels all rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in bullpen ERA and all have deep pockets and are known to make splashy moves when deemed necessary.  It's probably worth making a phone call, or at least answering the phone.

The other player I'd consider tradeable, but only for a great offer is Phil Hughes.  Not because I think he's suddenly become Cy Young, but because you do need to field a full rotation next season and with any luck they find a way to unload Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia for.......something.  Hughes has looked rejuvenated this year, and there's enough behind his numbers to at least suggest this isn't a fluke.  He's signed to a very affordable deal ($8m per) and is signed through 2016, so if the Twins hold on to him they'll have him through that first season where I'm hoping they're competing for a playoff spot (2016).

The only other guy I would even consider holding out and passing on trading if you don't get a really good offer is Trevor Plouffe.  It's pretty clear who he is at this point - a .240ish hitter with good pop, decent plate discipline, and decent defense at 3B - not a monster asset but a pretty decent player.  Considering he's under team control through 2017 and is making just $2.4m he's a pretty good value, so there's no reason to rush on him.  That being said, with Miguel Sano theoretically on the way and hopefully entrenched at third by 2016, he's not a necessary cog so any above market trade offer should be jumped on.

Literally everyone else is eminently tradeable, although most either have an unwieldy contract (Nolasco) or are just plain old too crappy to be considered desirable by anyone (everyone else).  Two guys who should hold enough value who absolutely need to be traded are Josh Willingham and Kurt Suzuki.  Willingham is a free agent after this season and it's doubtful the Twins will resign him, so come trade deadline dangle him out there and take whatever the top offer is - there's absolutely zero reason for Willingham to finish the season on the Twins' roster.

Suzuki is a bit more complicated, given that he's having a career year, made the All-Star team, and seems so much like Gardy's kind of guy it's actually painful.  On the other hand, he's on a one year deal and some of his numbers look pretty fluky.  Suzuki could be an ideal fill-in for a contending team needing catching help, whether just for depth or because of an injury, and Suzuki has hit well enough this year that he could offer help at DH or simply pinch hitting as well.  The Orioles lead the AL East but have very little at catcher now that they've lost Matt Wieters, while they're getting chased by Toronto who has gotten nothing this year from the position.  The Dodgers are another potential trade partner considering Drew Butera leads all Dodger catchers in plate appearances this season.

In the bullpen there's probably some potential to move Jared Burton, Casey Fien, and Brian Duensing.  Burton is putting up career worst numbers but should have enough of a track record to garner some interest from a pitching starved quasi-contender.  He's on the hook for a $3.6m team option next year with a buyout of just $200k, so it's not like any team would be making a major investment to acquire him. Fien is putting up his third straight solid season and is under team control all the way through 2018 so I could see holding on to him - maybe he's the future closer if they get a overwhelming offer for Perkins and actually pull the trigger.  Duensing has pretty much established who he is at this point, but his ERA is at his career low even if his peripherals aren't any better than usual and he's been very good against lefties in his career so he could draw some interest.  Hopefully.

Simply put, the Twins aren't going anywhere for at least another season and they have enough trade chips here that they should make this next month pretty interesting - SHOULD.  Willingham and Suzuki really should be traded and if the management likes them that much they'll have the opportunity to bring them back a la Rick Aguilera.  At least one out of Burton and Duensing should be traded, and there are other guys who could draw interest including blockbuster potential with Perkins.  It should be fun leading up to the trade deadline.  Yet somehow I get the feeling it will be all anticipation with no pay-off.  Again.  At some point this organization needs to realize they aren't developing players like they used to, and get more aggressive with trades and free agency (to be fair we did see a little of this last offseason) in order to get back to being competitive.  Or just keep missing the playoffs.

[EDIT:  Just realized I somehow completely forgot Kendrys Morales.  Absolutely needs to be traded.  Hopefully he gets hot again.]

Well then.

Fun With WAR: AL's Best Players by Position at the All-Star Break

Here's a look a the top players by position at the All-Star Break for the American League.  I thought I'd do this mainly as an exercise to see how far off the Twins are at position from the best players.  I'll look at WAR and try and include offensive and defensive tidbits.  For these purposes I'll use Fangraphs.com's WAR calculation and ratings because they're much easier to pull into a report than B-R.

Catcher - Joe Mauer, Twins

The beauty of the catcher position is that there are only 7 that qualify with enough plate appearances for me to rank.  Two of them are actually Twins thanks to Doumit's multi-positional weirdness.  Mauer leads this group with a 3.9 WAR, with Houston's Jason Castro at #2 with a 2.3 WAR.  Carlos Santana is 3rd (1.7 WAR).  The best rated fielder is Matt Wieters with Mauer second.  Wieters threw out 17 of 39 base stealer guys.  Mauer's All-Star backup Salvador Perez had just a 1.4 WAR.

For numbers that people actually understand, Mauer led in hits (113), runs (50), AVG (320), OBP (402) and was .002 behind Castro in slugging at 473.  Blue Jays' catcher JP Arencibia hit 16 homers and Wieters had 44 RBI to lead those categories.    None of them stole more than a couple bases because they have knees like I do, only mine are from sitting on the couch.

First Base - Chris Davis, Orioles

This is a no brainer as Davis is right there with Cabrera for first half MVP.  "Crush" (not sure where I stand on that nickname yet...the beverage is delicious though) produced a 5.1 WAR, giving him a healthy lead over Edwin Encarnacion at #2 (2.7).  James Loney is a surprising #3 on the list with a 2.2 WAR.  Prince Fielder was way down at #11 (0.8) because he gets dinged on his poor defense.  Justin Morneau is #13 with a 0.6 WAR. 

Davis led AL first basemen in hits (108), HR (37), R (70), RBI (93), AVG (315), OBP (392) and SLG (717).  It was a clean sweep for him.  Just sick.  Loney tied him with the .315 average.  Encarnacion (25), Dunn (24) and Mark Trumbo (21) also cleared the 20 homer mark.  The best fielding rating belonged to Mike Napoli (6.2), which seems pretty weird.  Trumbo (4.9), Hosmer (4.7) and Loney (4.0) are also among top defenders.  The worst fielder was Mark Reynolds at (-7.8), with Fielder hot on his tail at -7.7. 

Second Base - Robinson Cano, Yankees

Cano is having another great year and led AL second basemen with a 3.8 WAR.  Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis were right on his heels with 3.7 and 3.4, respectively.  Brian Dozier is 7th (1.5) thanks to his very good defense and base running ratings. Oh, and just to give you an idea how well no-batting-gloves Matt Carpenter is playing for the Cardinals in the NL; he has a 4.3 WAR.

Cano leads in homers (21), RBI (65) and slugging (531).  He's just average in fielding (0.4) and is actually a negative value in baserunning (-0.6).  Pedroia leads in hits (119), average (316), OBP (396), runs (57) and is just behind Omar Infante (5.1) in fielding with 5.0.  Kipnis leads in steals with 21, although somehow Zobrist gets the best base running rating with a 3.6.  Apparently he has a great UBR, which has something to do with how many extra bases he takes.

Third Base - Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (duh)

It's no surprise that last year's Triple Crown winner is on the top of the heap here.  What is amazing though is that he's nearing a second consecutive Triple Crown, which has never been done.  Blockhead Chris Davis is tripping him up right now in the homers and Davis is also right behind Cabrera in RBI.  There are some great AL third basemen this year with Cabrera (6.0 WAR), Evan Longoria (4.4), Josh Donaldson (4.3) and Manny Machado (4.2) at the top of the stack.  Poor Adrian Beltre is 6th despite hitting 316/358/543 with 21 homers.  Trevor Plouffe barely doesn't qualify, but if I lower the plate appearances standards a bit he clocks in at 8th with a 0.4 WAR.
As if you didn't know, Cabrera leads in everything with 365/458/674, 30 homers, 95 RBI and 73 runs.  Only 11 players had at least 30 homers and 95 RBI in all of 2012.  The best fielder is Manny Machado with a whopping +16 runs saved.  Our guy Plouffe is at -6.7, but Cabrera is worst at -11.9.  Miguel laughs at your defensive uber stats.  The best base runner besides utility guy Jayson Nix (2.5) is Kyle Seager (0.9). 

Shortstop - Derek Jeter  Jhonny Peralta, Tigers

Jhonny freaking Peralta is the best we have to offer at shortstop in the AL.  It's a motley crew where Mark Belanger would fit right in.  Peralta is actually hitting really well and providing average defense.  Funny that he's in better shape and playing so well in a contract year.  Peralta has a 2.7 WAR, Yunel Escobar is 2nd with a 2.3, Jed Lowrie is 3rd with a 1.8 and Pedro Florimon is tied with Alexei Ramirez for 4th with a 1.7!  JJ Hardy, who leads AL shortstops in homers (16) and RBI (52) is 6th with a 1.6 WAR because he doesn't walk and has a poor average.

Peralta leads shorstops in average (303) and slugging (447).  He's second to Lowrie (364) in OBP with a 361 mark.  Elvis Andrus leads in runs with 50 and is a +4.8 runs thanks to great base running.  Otherwise, he sucks the big one (0.6 WAR).  Nice signing, Texas.  Nice fantasy trade, WWWWWWWW. 
Florimon is the best fielder with a +9.0 runs; he's also a +2.8 base runner.  The worst fielder is Jed Lowrie (-7.9) and the worst base runner is Asdrubal Cabrera (-2.4).

Left Field - Alex Gordon, Royals

Alex Gordon is second to Mike Trout actually; Gordon has a 2.2 WAR and Kelly Johnson is third with a 1.8.  However, since 2/3 of Trout's games were in CF, we'll cover him there. There's a lot of sucky left fielders out there.  .224 hitting Josh Willingham is 14th with a 0.4 WAR.

Raul Ibanez leads left fielders with 24 homers, 578 slugging and 56 RBI.  Someone get some of that dude's pee ASAP.  Alejandro De Aza has the runs with 54.  Daniel Nava leads with a 288 average and a 374 OBP. Nate McLouth leads in steals with 24.  The best fielding LF is Andy Dirks with a +10.6; the worst is Daniel Nava at -9.5 splitting time between left and right field.  The best base runner is McLouth with a +3.6 runs; Melky Cabrera is the worst wtih a -3.3 tally.  Funny how Melky's numbers have dropped back to where he was at in his Yankee days after getting suspended 50 games for roiding.

Center Field - Mike Trout, Angels

Trout is cranking out another pretty great year; in relative silence because the rest of the Angels have been pretty sucky and Cabrera and Davis have been putting up massive power numbers.  His 5.7 WAR in the first half puts him on pace to exceed his MLB leading 10.0 WAR from last year. Colby Rasmus and Jacoby Ellsbury are tied for second at 3.5, Desmond Jennings and Brett Gardner are tied for fourth at 2.7 and Adam Jones is sixth with a 2.5 WAR.  Aaron Hicks is dead last at 15th with a 0.0 WAR.

Trout leads in AVG (322), OBP (399) and SLG (565).  Adam Jones leads in homers (19), runs (67) and RBI (67).  Ellsbury leads in steals with 36 and also is tops with a base running with a +8.7 runs.  The worst base runner in CF is Lorenzo Cain with a -0.5 runs.  Cain however, is the top fielder with a +11.8; De Aza is last at -7.9.

Right Field - Jose Bautista, Bleu Jays

Joey Bats!  His 3.0 WAR leads right fielders.  Shane Victorino is second with a 2.4 WAR; Zobrist is third with 2.2.  Torii Hunter leads in AVG (315) and OBP (352) unless we count Nava again.  Chris Parmelee isn't last!  He's second to last ahead of JD Martinez.

Nelson Cruz leads in homers (22), RBI (69) and SLG (517).  The only stat Bautista actually leads in is runs (61), but he's close in a number of categories.  The best fielder is Victorino, a converted center fielder, with +14.0; JD Martinez is worst with a -7.1 (again unless we count stone legs Nava).  Drew Stubbs is the best base runner (4.0) and Boom Stick Cruz is last with a -2.6.

Final Tally for the Twins:

C:  1st
1B: 13th
2B: 7th
3B: 8th
SS: 4th
LF: 14th
CF: 15th
RF: 14th

Can we Answer any Twins' Questions yet?

Before the baseball season started this year I said the Twins' weren't going to be very good.  Bold prediction, I know, but I also said that would be ok because it would give us a chance to answer some questions about some of the Twins' "fringey" guys and figure out who would be a future building block for the team and who wouldn't - or at least shouldn't.  I think we are far enough into the season at this point to at least start looking at the answer to that question on some of these dudes.

Chris Parmelee - Parmelee has always hit well in the minors, including crushing AAA pitching last year to the tune of .338/.457/.645 with 17 homers in 64 games and as he's just 25 years old there's still hope, but it is fading and fading quickly.  He's hitting just .223/.302/.346 so far this year, and believe it or not that's only a slight regression from where he was in last season's late audition when he was terrible.

To put it in perspective, that OPS he's sporting is about what you'd expect from a typical Alexi Casilla season, and considering Parmelee is a poor fielder and not a good baserunner he's clearly been one of the least valuable players on the team this year (and his -0.4 WAR backs me up).  Since his only possible positions are ones of premium offensive importance (1B/RF) and he offers little besides his bat, things don't look good.  He's not showing the power he displayed at AAA and complimenting that by walking less and striking out more.  Other than all that things are going great.

Brian Dozier - Might as well follow up one big disappointment with another, because Dozier flat stinks, hitting just .230/.284/.340 and basically performing like a slightly non-broke man's Drew Butera without the premium defense and a tough position.  Actually although he's a pretty horrendous shortstop he's been decent second basemen, but decent fielding can't offset that piss poor hitting or whatever it is he's doing up there.

The saddest part of all of this is that thanks to his solid fielding and good base-running (fangraphs has him as the #2 base-runner on the team which includes things like going from 1st to 3rd on a single and what-not) Dozier actually ranks as the 4th best Twin position player this year by WAR (behind Mauer, Florimon - more on him later, and Morneau).  That's not a positive regarding Dozier, more of an indictment of how awful the Twins have been seeing as how he ranks 62nd out of the 86 players in the majors who qualify for the batting title in WAR.  I've pretty much given up on this guy.

Trevor Plouffe - Plouffe hasn't been able to follow up on his torrid streak last year where he hit 13 homers in 22 games, making Danny Valencia expendable (well, more expendable) and finishing with 24 homers on the year (the most for a Twin 3B since Corey Koskie's 25 in 2004) but he does seem to be settling in to the kind of player we could expect year after year.  It's pretty good, and would be very good if he was a better fielder.

Plouffe's value almost solely comes from his bat, and his year he's hitting .264/.344/.457 and should end up in the vicinity of 20 homers again assuming no more injuries.  Plouffe's OPS of .801 ranks 6th in the AL among third basemen, which is great but is offset by his fielding.  Plouffe's cut down on his errors, which is encouraging, but his range is the fourth worst in the AL among 3Bs (as imprecise as this is).  I don't know if you can teach range, so at this point he probably is what he is:  a guy with stone feet who will hit around .260 each year with about 20 dingers and walk a little.  Good enough for you?  Good enough for me, provided he continues to clean up his fielding. 

Pedro Florimon - He isn't a guy who I even dreamed about thinking about the possibility of him being in the Twins' future when contention time rolls around again (please roll around again) but it's not out of the realm of possibility.  Granted he's a pretty terrible hitter (slightly better than Dozier this year, though) but his fielding and base running (7 steals in 7 attempts helps here quite a bit) have turned him into the second most valuable Twin so far this year with a 1.4 WAR.  Yes, once again this mostly just means the Twins are really horrible, but comparing him league wide yields some eye opening results.

Among all shortstops in the major leagues, Florimon ranks 1st in range, and ranks 3rd in overall fielding value since he makes too many errors right now.  Add in some excellent base running (tops on the team, fourth among all big league shortstops, and despite floundering around at the plate Florimon is the 8th most valuable shortstop in the majors, all things considered.  It seems a bit bizarre I'll grant you, and fielding and base running metrics aren't an exact science, but he does pass the eye test there as well so it's close enough for me.  He has increased his power and his walk rate this year compared to last, and although at 27 we're probably past time for a big breakout if it was coming (and his minor league numbers suggest that it certainly wasn't) Florimon should end up sticking around for a while as either your slick fielding number 9 hitter or defensive whiz substitution guy, both of which are far from where I had originally though he'd be which is the California Penal League where they don't wear caps or sleeves.

Glen Perkins - I was of the opinion that Perkins was a half-way decent set-up guy of the dime a dozen type who would probably manage to get a few saves and hopefully the Twins would trade him because saves are so overvalued.  I still think they should probably trade him, but now, with him proving to be nearly unhittable (WHIP 0.82/OAV .165 - both 4th best in the AL) and striking out 12.62 per 9 innings (7th best), and being under team control until 2016 if they decide to roll with him as their future closer, I can deal.  

That being said, they would be foolish not to at least listen to offers come trade deadline time.  Perkins has been great, but closers are notoriously volatile and the Twins likely won't really even need a closer until 2015 at the earliest, so a contender with closer issues like Detroit (yes, even though GASP they're in the same division) or Arizona or Boston or somebody might be willing to drastically overpay from a prospect perspective.  If somebody is willing to give you a legit prospect or even a young established player at a greater position of need (would Detroit give up Rick Porcello, for example?) wouldn't you have to do it?  I guess this all depends on how you value closers.  If you're like me and think most closers are interchangeable with their set-up men then yes.  If you're wrong, then no.


That's about it outside of the starting staff (who I will look at in an upcoming post because geez what a mess that is).  I could go through a couple of other guys with questions like "Can Eduardo Escobar help justify the Francisco Liriano trade by becoming the next Denny Hocking/Jeff Reboulet type?" (No, not white gritty enough) or "Can Wilkin Ramirez stick around?" (Honestly I don't even know if he's still on the team) but that doesn't really seem like something I'm going to do. 

Has Trevor Plouffe figured it out?

For those of you who might not have caught it in several other of my posts, I make a lot of bets (and I mean a lot of bets) on things like "Will Justin Morneau record an RBI" or "Will Adam LaRoche score a run" or "Will David Price record over 5.5 strikeouts."  For example, when lines opened this afternoon Johan Santana was at 5.5k for his OVER/UNDER, was facing the Orioles (who lead the majors in whiffs), and had had 6+ Ks in six of his last seven starts.  Naturally he was an easy over play, which of course meant that he finished the night with five.  Ass.  Anyway, because of that I know lots about Vegas props.  Every so often, probably 1-2 times per week (and there are 70+ bets per day so it's a rare bet) the prop will be "Will So-and-so hit a home run" (with obviously obviously slanted towards no).  Today, that so-and-so was Trevor Mother-Effing Plouffe.  Here's who I remember this bet being on so far this year:  Tony Bautista, Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, and Trevor Plouffe.  I may be forgetting someone, but nobody on a Plouff-ian level.

So then I check the stats really quick because I know he's been hot and he has 14 homers, which ranks 14th in the majors.  Fourteenth!  Only he's done it in about 100 less at-bats than everybody in front of him.  He's #1 in homers among middle-infielders (if you still want to count him as one).  Going into tonight he was hitting a homer in every 11 at-bats.  That would rank 54th all-time for a single-season if he kept it up (and would crush the career record held by Ryan Howard (lol wut?)).  If we discount OFers and 1Bs who are supposed to mash, Plouffe's season right now would rank 4th all-time, and if we discount A-Rod's seasons because I don't really feel like looking up which ones he was at third and which at short, it would be the greatest home run hitting season in middle infielder history.  Also feel free to conveniently ignore the fact that Plouffe has only played 21 (of 364) innings in the middle infield this year, because I am.  It's way more fun to compare him to Zack Cozart and Aaron Miles than Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton, so that's what I'm going to do.

In either case that doesn't really matter, compared to if we think he's going to keep doing this, regardless of position, so that's what I'm going to focus on unless I get distracted by this hot, brilliant young cook on MasterChef or the NBA game (OKC rolling as Nick effing Collison takes it at Bosh for the And-1).

The #1 thing we need to look at is HR/FB.  Although this number will vary wildly from player to player, it is also the first place to look when a player (or pitcher) is hitting (or allowing) a ridiculous amount of dingers.  And Plouffe is at 24.6%, which ranks ninth in the majors.  It would have ranked #2 last year.  And in 2010.  And third in 2009.  To put it in perspective, the guys who are always at the top of this metric are always guys like Adam Dunn, Mike Stanton, Mark Reynolds, Jose Bautista, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Carlos Pena - home freaking run hitters.  Do you think Plouffe goes in this group, personally, I don't.  However.......

Plouffe's career number in HR/FB is 15.8%, so although the 24.6% is a jump we aren't talking going from Denny Hocking to Prince Fielder here.  That 15.8% actually places him 30th among all batters from 2010-2012 (as a combined number for the 3 seasons and if Plouffe qualified).  Not bad.  That's ahead of Carlos Beltran, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Quentin, Evan Longoria, and your boyfriend Josh Willingham.  Maybe not in that first tier of sluggers, but definitely somewhere in that second group.  Interesting.

So has he done anything to suddenly jump from good slugger to big-time bomber?

First off, last year after being shipped to Rochester, again, he hit 15 homers in 192 at-bats, a homer every 12.8 at-bats, not far off his current level.   That power sure as shit didn't translate to the majors as he basically hit like an asshole after being pulled back up, but he did have some of it in the minors.  And now?

We know about the jump in HR/FB.  The key is if there is any way to trace that to a change in batting approach or if it just looks fluky.  Do you like how I like all mysterious like a great writer like that broad who wrote Twilight?  Gotta keep you guessing.  Also I write before looking stuff up which is why I sometimes look like an ass dummy, but I'm not exactly ready to stop doing it that way yet so leave me alone.  Anyway, one of the biggest deals I see when looking at his nerd stats are that in his three pro years his K-rate has declined while his walk-rate has increased.  His walk rate this year would rank 26th in the majors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify, while his K-rate would be around bottom-75 or so, and more like Joey Votto and Ryan Doumit than Adam Dunn or Pedro Alvarez.  Combine the two and his BB/K is 0.63, ranking 41st in the majors.  Most of the guys who rank above him are slappers (Jose Reyes, Jamey Carroll) or girls (Joe Mauer, David Wright), so if you want to look at slugging types Plouffe would rank 14th best on my subjective criteria whereby I look at a name and decide if I think he's a "slugger" or not.  Pretty impressive.

Looking a bit deeper, and I promise I'll rap this up soon before we get too far down the nerdhole and also I need to watch some of the basketball game, he's swinging at almost the exact same percentage of pitches as last year.  However.  He has cut way down on swinging at balls outside the zone (29% to 22%) while swinging at more balls in the zone (58% to 62%).  He's also making far more contact when he swings (76% to 82%) and his swinging strike % is way down (10% to 7.7%).  All of these point to someone who is figuring out the major league strike zone and major league pitching.  At the same time is BABIP is way down at .217, and although his high percentage of flyballs hit (another metric that points to a "slugging" type) suggests he'd likely settle under .300, he's still had some bad luck this year.

Put it altogether?  He won't keep up this level of HR production, but it's not as fluky as I first expected, and his batting average will almost certainly rise.  A .270 average with 25-28 home runs seems like where we are probably trending, and that's an awfully solid year for a guy who is trying to find a position.  Looking at his numbers (using Ultimate Zone Rating) he's likely to settle in at either 1b or RF with a chance and becoming a 3b. His value at either RF or 1b is minimized, but if he can stick at 3b it skyrockets.  So that's what the Twins need to do with Plouffe - play him at third, every single day because Jamey Carroll really, and see what we see.

To sum up:

PRO:  Plouffe is really, really fun to say.
CON:  He's a total power hitter and the Twins hate that.

Week in Review 04.11.2011

Do you want to know what's really, really awesome?  The burgers at The Blue Door Pub.  There's only seating for about 25 people in the entire place so even at 6pm on a Friday night when most of the going out public is in Minneapolis following the Twins' home opener the wait was still an hour to get a table for four, but it was totally worth it. 

We tried a variety of their burgers, from The Frenchy (stuffed with caramelized onions and swiss cheese and served with au jus) to the Cajun (stuffed with pepper jack and diced jalapenos) to the Luau (stuffed with mozzarella and Canadian Bacon and topped with grilled pineapple and a sweet chili lime sauce) and they were all awesome, as were the fish tacos, tator tots, and deep fried pickles.  Add in an awesome selection of beer on tap and it might be my favorite restaurant ever.  Of course, seeing as how long it takes to get seated I don't know if I'll be going very often but I really can't recommend it highly enough.  Go there.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  The Masters.  Now that, my friends, was a freaking awesome golf tournament.  Really it had everything you could want:  Tiger making a Sunday charge, the best of the young guns (McIlroy) and the most underrated (Day), vets who had won majors before (Ogilvy, Cabrera) and who were still looking for their first (Choi), two guys trying to drop out of contention for the best player never to win a major (Donald, Scott), and and the next in the line of South African studs (Schwartzel).  Most importantly, outside of McIlroy's implosion, which happened early enough to not affect the enjoyment of the back 9, and fades from Bo Van Pelt and Choi on the back, everybody brought their A-game down the stretch.  Donald's chip, Day's putts at 17 and 18, Scott's tee shot at 16, or any of Schwartzel's birdies from 15-18 could have been a signature moment, but this year's year's tournament was just stuffed with 'em, and was so competitive 8 different players had at least a share of the lead on the back nine on Sunday.  Just insane.  Such an awesome tournament, I can only hope the other three majors come close.

2.  Edwin Jackson.  Well shit.  When the Sox were trying to maneuver to acquire Adam Dunn last year, the thought was they got Jackson from Arizona simply because they knew the Nationals were sweet on him and they would use him to try to facilitate a trade for Dunn.  When the trade never materialized, it was awesome because it looked like they screwed themselves.  Unfortunately for all those who hate the White Sox (which is everyone in the world outside Chicago and prisons) it looks like Jackson may be a keeper all by himself.  His 8 inning, 4 hit, 1 walk, 13 strikeout performance against Tampa puts him at 2-0 for the year with a 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 20-5 Ks to BBs.  He looks like he might actually be good and that's unfortunate because the team of evil deserves to have nothing good happen to them, ever.

3.  Alex Gordon.  It's taken forever, a bunch of false starts, a few really poor seasons, and a position change, but maybe, just maybe, Alex Gordon - former #2 overall pick in 2005 - has arrived.  He's been in the majors since 2007 (with a few trips to AAA sprinkled in) and managed just a .244/.328/.405 over that time with about 1 HR ever 40 at-bats and twice as many strikeouts as walks, and he threw in shitty defense to round it out.  Basically the kid was looking like a monster bust.  This year, however, things may be looking up.  He's currently hitting at a .357/.400/.548 while leading the league in hit and playing a passable left field.  He's also showing some power, at least compared to his previous years, and has cut down a bit on the strikeouts.  I'm not saying he's arrived, but he's finally looking like a competent player.  Which brings the Royals total to 3.

4.  Ty Lawson.  It's not often I write about the NBA in the regular season.  I pay attention in the playoffs, of course, because playoff NBA basketball is one of the most entertaining and skillful displays in any sport at any time, but the regular season is nearly as boring as the WNBA or your average Gopher men's home game.  That being said, occasionally something happens that is so inexplicable and/or bizarre that I need to mention it, and that's why this part here with Ty Lawson is here.  Lawson is a great penetrator and distributor and is fast as hell but going back to his days at North Carolina it's always been known as a terrible shooter.  But naturally everything changes and gets flipped on its head when the Wolves are involved, and Lawson hit 10 of 11 three-pointers.  That's 10 of 11 threes, including his first 10 (an NBA record) on his way to 37 points (a career high).  Lawson's previous career high for three pointers hit in a game was three.  THREE!  God the basketball in this town sucks. 

5.  Trevor Plouffe.  I don't know if he's the middle infield answer (more on Casilla later), but he's certainly showing he might be ready by destroying AAA pitching thus far this season.  Rochester kicked off their year on Thursday and Plouffe started slowly going 0-4, but he's followed that up by going 3-5 with a double and a homer, 3-5 with a walk, a double and two homers, and 2-4 with a walk, bringing his early season line to .444/.500/1.056.  Simply put, so far he's been completely on fire.  Some may say it's early still and the Twins should wait and not bring him up yet, but those people are the same idiots who stare at a fire in the corner and wait until the entire house is ablaze before reacting.  Come on Bill Smith, don't let the house burn down.  We need some Plouffe.


WHO SUCKED


1.  Alexi Casilla.  I'm sorry, but this guy is not a shortstop and not a starting caliber bat at any position, possibly including National League pitcher.  I'm not even sure he can throw the ball from the hole all the way to first, and just how many times this year are we going to see him dive to stop a ball, get up, and not get the guy or not even bother throwing the ball?  Just don't even bother stopping the ball if you can't throw anybody out.  And don't even get me started with the bat - he's just terrible.  The worst part is that he's actually the best option right now, because the only other player who can play short on the major league roster is Matt Tolbert and we all know what a giant piece of crap he is.  Honest to god, can we get Plouffe up here please?  Maybe he's the answer and maybe he isn't, but at least he's got potential and brings hope to the position.  Every time they read off the Twins lineup and say Casilla's or Tolbert's name a little piece of me dies inside.

2.  Matt Thornton.  I don't know why you'd bother giving the closer to anyone else when you have the nastiness that is Chris Sale - who might have the best stuff of any pitcher in the league - but for some reason the White Sox decided to roll with Thornton.  He repaid that trust by going 0-2 in save opportunities this week, blowing the first against Kansas City (after they scored 3 runs on Joakim Soria to almost steal the game) and then followed that up by getting absolutely bombed for four hits and five runs against Tampa.  The good news for the Sox, and bad news for all White Sox haters which I assume is everyone, is that they look like they may have moved the closer duties over to the unhittable Chris Sale, who picked up the save on Saturday (although he did give up a run).  Hopefully, for the children and America, they stick with Thornton.

3.  Tampa Rays.  I know Evan Longoria is important - not just to the Rays but to all of Major League Baseball, the world, the safety of our nation, and the love in my heart - but it's pretty sad how Tampa has basically just given up after his injury.  A pathetic 1-8 start to the year, and it's been even uglier than that.  They currently rank dead last in the majors in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage and in the bottom six in ERA, quality starts, and batting average against.  Only B.J. Upton is hitting the ball remotely well and he leads the team in basically every batting stat, while the starting pitching has been atrocious and is backed up by a pretty poorly performing bullpen.  This is really, really ugly.  Who knew Longoria had this kind of effect on the entire team?  Pretty clear he's the AL MVP at this point.  

4.  Austin Jackson.  I like Austin Jackson.  He's fast, a good fielder, and he can hit the ball with power and average - at least in theory - but he's been brutal this year.  He's hitting just .184 this year (with an OBP of .244 and SLG of .289), but that's not even the most troubling part.  That would be his impressive 14 strikeouts in just 38 at-bats, a pace that would leave him at 228 Ks for the year if he reaches the 618 at-bats he had last year - a new single-season record.  Although I feel pretty safe saying that if he doesn't start getting some hits he'll be logging some of those ABs down on the farm.  He's a free swinger and is always going to strike out a lot (and never really bothers to walk), but he needs to produce when he does put the ball in play, as he did last year.  The weird thing is that his contact rate isn't even that bad at 76.5% (Carlos Pena is at 58.5% - worst in the majors) and you can have plenty of success even if you swing and miss frequently (Nelson Cruz is at 64.2%), but when he does hit the ball he's making terrible contact (4.3% line drives vs. 52.2% fly balls).  Things are not lining up well for Mr. Jackson to turn it around.  And yes, he's on our fantasy team.  Joy.  

5.  UND Fighting Sue.  I don't know anything about hockey and to be honest don't even completely understand most of their crazy rules, but I know gambling and I know the Sue were a huge favorite at -220 (meaning you'd have to bet $220 to win $100 - that's a huge favorite) so I know that them losing to Michigan was a pretty epic chocke job.  I'll let Snake elaborate further:

"I would like to take this first sentence to thank the Michigan Wolverines for doing gods work and beating the prairie scrubs from the University of North Dakota.    

Certain things can be expected every spring in the midwest.  Robins return, the snow melts, flowers bloom and coach Hakstol and the University of North Dakota lose in fantastic fashion in the NCAA tournament.  Of course nothing changed this year.  Coach Hak brought the best team in the country into a frozen four field filled with mediocre teams.  Instead of walking through the field they got shutout 2-0 by a Michigan team who played a walk-on goalie and lost to the gophers 3-1 this year.  This was a choke job of epic proportions.  Vegas had the Sioux at -250 to win it all while Michigan was +175, UMD was +450 (which bogart cashed) and Notre Dame was +500.  

So basically UND losing on Thursday was a bigger upset than Russia losing to the USA in 1980 olympics.  Only this was better because the majority of TRUE americans hate North Dakota more than those Red bastards from the USSR.  As usual, UND fans took the loss with class and dignity!"