Hey Some Sports Stuff Happened

Some of you who still actually read this blog have noticed I haven't posted in a while.  Mostly because I was driving across the country to Utah with my wife and two idiot kids.  We covered more than 2,500 miles and traveled in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Utah over the last 15 days, spending nights in 3 different hotel rooms and 2 different condos.  We saw Mount Rushmore, the black hills (freaking gorgeous), a bunch of cool Mountains and stuff, swam in 3 different pools, saw some dinosaurs, a moose, a bunch of antelope, and more cows and horses than you could ever want.  We drove through a true ghost town (like, a bunch of buildings and nobody living there), Deadwood (Billy the Kid died there), went through the world's biggest drug store (Wall Drug in Wall, SD) and a town with a sign advertising population 15.  I drank vodka tonics out of a sports bottle at the pool, boxed wine out of a paper cup in a pitch black hotel room while the kids slept, and snuck beer in the garage at a mormon birthday party. 

Best of all, my kids got to spend time with their grandparents and spent 9 full days with their cousins who are about the same age and whose mom is their mom's sister and best friend and they loved every minute of it.  There were many tears when we left, and my daughter vowed to be pen pals with her cousin while my son wailed "but we can't leave cousin Ike is my best friend!!!!"  I dreaded doing this before we started (even though I knew it was something we should do). Yes, there were moments where it got difficult (like when the bridge in Wyoming was washed out and we had to back track 50 miles, or when the road in Wyoming was washed out and we had to go out of our way by about 130 miles), but the kids held on and were troopers despite a couple 12 hour days in the car and it was a fantastic trip all around.  We will definitely do it again in a few years.  And I'm going to dread every moment leading up to it.

Any way, there was some sports stuff that happened.  Also Wyoming can go right to hell.

-  The big news is that Gopher commit Jarvis Johnson will not be medically cleared to play for the Gophers due to his heart condition.  This on the heels of another commit, Jonathan Nwankwo, not getting clearance to play due to some indeterminate academic issue.  So what the hell is going on here?  This isn't the first time the basketball team has run into issues with the admissions office - recall Djuan Piper or Gaston Diedhiou, just in the last year.  Honestly I'm pretty tired of it.

I get that the University of Minnesota is among the top academic schools in the country - US News ranked it #71 in its Top Academic Universities in the nation list - and that's cool.  I mean, I like seeing the U up there on that list, much better than being someone like UNLV who received a "Rank not Published" because they were so bad.  The problem is, if you want to be an athletically relevant school sometimes you have to bend the rules a bit.  Duke ranks #5, but William Avery, who seemed like a complete dope, got in there because he could ball.  USC ranks #22 and I'm pretty sure O.J. Mayo is a moron.  Georgetown ranks #20 and they let in Kenny Brunner, who ended up trying to kill somebody with a god damn samurai sword.

Look, I'm not an idiot.  If there's a danger to Jarvis, and unacceptable danger, then sure, hold him out, of course.  The kid's safety is paramount here so I'm not necessarily bashing this decision, just the overall state of the admissions department which seems to constantly be at odds with the basketball program.  I know you can't let in some degenerate who can't read, but Nwankwo landed at VCU, which may not have the lofty academic status of the U but it still ranked in the top 200.  Come on already.  The Gopher athletic program will never rise to top tier status if the rest of the University actively works to hold it down.  Admitting some borderline or slightly worse than borderline students who can ball the fuck out isn't going to put a black eye on the school.  This program is cursed, and the tight ass admissions people sure as hell aren't helping.

And, if you'll allow me to be human for a moment, this has to just suck for Jarvis.  The kid just had his dream pulled out from underneath him. Despite the report that he and his family were kind of blindsided by this it doesn't appear at this time that he's looking to transfer.  That makes me think there's some legit shit going on here and not some kind of conspiracy - nobody wants another Hank Gathers situation.  This is really the wrong issue to start railing on the U's admissions department because this one might make sense, it's just the latest in a series of setbacks so it's a little bit of burnout here.  Ugh.  Just sick of it.

-  The Twins started their regression with a 2-9 stretch, but have bounced back with a 3-1 stretch and still sit at 37-31 and second place in the AL Central.  I pretty much expect this kind of thing.  Most likely they'll play around .500 ball the rest of the year and end up staying in contention for a Wild Card berth and things will stay interesting.  I'm pretty excited about that, though it's a negative also.  If the Twins hang around in contention it means guys who should probably be trading this year, especially Trevor Plouffe since his value is probably at an all-time high right now, won't be.  

Hey I like Plouffe, I'm a big fan and my kid has some big giant face thing of his.  But his numbers are better than how he's actually playing and it's unlikely a 29 year old suddenly hit his peak, he's a free agent after this year, and the best prospect in the system other than Buxton is a 3B.  He's prime trade material.  Not to mention Mike Pelfrey, who they better not resign/extend because he is terrible no matter what his fluky ERA is.  

Of course, it's intoxicating to think about the playoffs, too.  If they can just get in, anything can happen.  Who knows how this shakes out, the Twins could end up buyers or sellers, but most likely they'll stand pat and that's probably the right move.  Of course, when you're about to get a pitcher like Ervin Santana back that's as good as making a trade anyway.

Some other Twin things:

-  Byron Buxton is here!  He picked up his third career hit today, but that 2-20 start wasn't exactly encouraging especially since other prospects on his level have produced so far this year (Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Carlos Correa).  With all the traveling and stuff I've only seen one of his at-bats and he looked fine (despite striking out) so it's hard to know if he's overmatched right now or if it's just bad luck so far, but we can look into some nerd stats to get an idea.  

First thing that stands out is a BABIP of .143.  Essentially no matter how much a batter may be struggling that is completely non-sustainable (the lowest BABIP for anyone in 2014 was .231 by Brian McCann).  His strikeout rate is a kind of scary 33%, but it's not all that surprising considering he's been around 25% his first year at each level.  His 7.7% line drive rate and 21.4% hard hit rate both suggest he's making terrible contact when he does hit the ball, however, and that's not good.  His swing rate is a little high and his contact rate a little low, but nothing too concerning.  

There's plenty to like here still.  His speed and defense give him value even when his bat might not, and I have to believe his bat will come around simply because he's always hit and also because I have to believe it.  Give him time.  Nothing to panic about.  Right?

-  I'm pretty bummed about Danny Santana.  I know the .405 BABIP pegged him as pretty much an automatic regression candidate, but he had a really good line drive rate so I thought you know, maybe.  But the line drive rate has gone down, the K rate has gone up, and the walk rate has completely disappeared leading to an embarrassing .525 OPS, second worst in the majors among hitters with at least 185 PAs.  Couple that with Eduardo Escobar's hot start and sending him down was pretty much a no brainer.  Escobar's cooled off now, however, and Santana is crushing at Rochester (.370/.412/.543) so he'll be back up, and hopefully he'll be all straightened out.

-  I don't know if anyone has noticed, and by that I mean I think everyone has noticed, but Joe Mauer has been worth -0.5 WAR this season, meaning he's worse than replacement level.  Meaning you take some shlub like Chris Colabello or Chris Parmelee or whoever the equivalent would be right now in AAA and plug him in and he'd give you more than Mauer.  Mauer, who is currently getting paid $23 million to completely suck at an offensively premium position.  His slugging and OPS are both the worst in the American League among first basemen with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title, which means he's playing one of the most traditional power positions without supplying any power (or anything offensively, really).  

His walk rate has slipped to a career worst as well, so you can't even point to his OBP (a pedestrian .329, 70 points or so lower than his career number) and say "well, at least he's getting on base."  His "soft contact" percentage is the worst it's ever been, and he's already popped up in the infield twice this year.  You can say that doesn't sound like much, and in some cases it isn't, but from 2011-2014 he only popped up a total of two times - not a misprint.  

I don't know where to go from here.  He's making $23 million per year through 2018 so he's impossible to trade unless you include something extremely premium or pick up a lot of his salary, which is pointless.  The only way he's remotely tradeable is if he ups his production level, which seems unlikely since his 2009 season, the one which got him that big contract, was a complete outlier.  His 28 homers that year were more than double his next best year.  His batting average was nearly 40 points better than his second best year.  His ISO was 60 points higher, his WAR over 2 wins better than any other year in his career, and his HR/FB was almost double any other season.  Just a complete fluke.

At this point, as frequent commenter and long time reader RGHrbek mentioned in the comments, he's blocking Kennys Vargas, who needs at-bats.  He could end up blocking Plouffe or Miguel Sano's move to first, and by taking up one of the 1B/DH spots he's also blocking Josmil Pinto's development.  Seriously, if you could only have two of the three out of Vargas, Mauer, and Plouffe, don't you take Vargas and Plouffe?  Mauer needs to be traded just to free up playing time for the younger dudes, but he's completely untradeable so here we are.  Hopefully he can turn it around and give the team a little average and on base skills if nothing else.  Oh and he's completely horrid defensively too, don't forget.  Neat stuff.

-  If you have kids go see Inside Out.  It was pretty awesome.

Yeah that'll do for now.

Tuesday Talkers

Going to be flipping between the Twins and the NBA Finals tonight, so might as well write some random stuff while doing those things.

- First off, I know we are all very excited about our little Byron Buxton and the just promoted to double-A Miguel Sano and with good reason.  Buxton is hitting .350/.444/.578 with 8 triples, 7 homers, and 26 steals while playing amazing defense and Sano hit .330/.424/.655 with 16 home runs in 56 games before his promotion.  No doubt these guys are crushing it and, assuming nothing significantly changes, both will be rated as top 10 prospects in all of baseball when next year's rankings come out.  It's very, very awesome, but the hype train might want to back up just a hair.

On the radio today I heard both Dubay and PA spout complete inanities about these guys (and yes, they are two of the biggest dummies when it comes to baseball among all people who have a public voice so I know they're almost going to say something stupid, but this just really bugged me).  Dubay's big call was that Sano would be a September call-up this year, which is wrong for two reasons.  First, you never go from A-ball to the major leagues in one season, it just doesn't happen unless somebody can prove me wrong but I'm sure it's extremely rare.  Even if he finishes the year tearing up AA like he did A I just can't see it happening.  Secondly, the money issue.  It's moot if he ends up starting 2014 in the majors, which I could see happening but kind of doubt it after Aaron Hicks started so slowly this year, but if they call him up in September guess what?  That major league service time clock gets going a year early.  The Twins are no longer cheap, but that doesn't mean they want to start giving out big money contracts a year early.  Won't happen.

The far more egregious and stupid comment came from PA which is something I assume we are all accustom to at this point, in that he said Buxton should be in the majors RIGHT NOW.  He also said if Buxton had started the year in the majors (yes this year) he would be as good or better than Aaron Hicks so far.  I'm not even going to start to break this doubt because it would be an insult to all of us, but I just don't get the PA popularity.  His knowledge of sports is extremely limited to NFL-only and he's only ok with that, his interview skills are subpar, and his personality is grating and annoying.  Yet, when I was listening to a Vikings game on the radio with a group of people one time somebody said, "Man I love PA" and then somebody else said "He's the best" and then everybody agreed.  I just don't get it.  Is it the raging homerism thing?  Do people love a homer announcer?  He's an idiot and a jackass and is stupid.  It's so confusing.  Sometimes I wonder if I'm living in some kind of weird dream world and this isn't real life.

- One other thing that's kind of getting lost in the Buxton/Sano hype is that Eddie Rosario was also promoted to AA along with Sano.  Rosario may not have the hype of the other two, but he's a pretty big deal and ranks consistently in the top 5 or top 10 on most Twins prospect lists, and is becoming even more valuable after his conversion from outfield to second base which, based on being promoted here, is likely going well.  He can hit (.329/.377/.527 this year) and if he can field at the 4-spot he may be the guy to finally fill that second base hole that's been on this team seemingly since Rod Carew.  Hurry up, Eddie, I can't take much more Brian Dozier.

-  Since I've been typing I've now seen Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and Oswaldo Arcia absolutely drill balls back-to-back-to-back off Cole Hamels and it makes one wonder - what is up with that dude?  Long time readers may remember that Hamels was my boyfriend for a while, but he's just been brutal this year.  Thing is, I can't find a single thing you can point to and say "that's the problem."  He's practically been the exact same pitcher this year as he's always been.  The only difference at all is batters are making more contact than usual when they swing at pitches in the strike zone (84% vs. 82%), he's given up more infield hits (16% vs. 11%), and more fly balls he's given up are going out of the park (13% vs. 11.5%).  All of that says his results have been more the result of a fluke than anything significant going on with him.  Then I see him basically put it on a tee for four straight Twin batters and I wonder if he's just making more mistakes this year - the higher contact rates in the zone and homer/flyball rates could back that up.  So, I guess I'm not sure yet what's his deal.  What am I, Galileo?

-  I actually had someone tell me they thought That's My Boy was a really good and funny movie.  No I didn't punch him immediately in the neck but only because we were at softball and we are on the same team and that would have caused all kinds of issues, but I kind of wanted to.

-  Speaking of movies, I caught a little bit of Reign of Fire recently, which is that movie with Christian Bale and Matthew McConaughey about dragons in a post apocalyptic world.   It's mostly a terrible movie, but Bale and McConaughey both rock and obviously dragons are like the bomb and stuff so every time I see it I ended up staying on the channel at least long enough to see a dragon fight and quite often end up watching the entire rest of the movie.  So if you're a fan of dragons and/or hot guys you should totally check it out on your netflix or hulu or whatever people watch stuff on these days.

-  The fact that Lebron James hasn't developed a true post game yet drives me crazy - almost as much as his constant bitching.  After the success of having him play the 4 in the Finals last year after Bosh got hurt he had to know they were going to be doing it a lot this season, but still he didn't develop any kind of offensive post moves.  I mean yeah he's still effective posting up and finding shooters or cutters, but his offensive game on the block is to put it on the floor and drive to the hoop.  Sure that works sometimes and he can get to the line that way as well, but can you imagine him with a turnaround jumper or a little jump hook or something?  I know it seems silly to criticize someone who just put up a season where he averaged 27, 8, & 7 while shooting 57%, but man, what if he had an actual post game?  That's fairly terrifying, in a boner inducing way.  Pretty sure he'd still bitch about everything though.

-  Wow the Spurs are just daring Lebron to take jumpers.  Seems to be working since he just bricked a wide open three.
 
 - Should be a very interesting U.S. Open.  From what I've heard the rough will be rough, but tons of rain will make the greens incredibly soft and slow so you'll see a whole lot of conservative play off the tee (to keep in in the fairway) and then aggressive shots into the green.  Sounds like a recipe for an awfully low winning score, which the U.S. Open hates, but there are three par-3s over 235 yards which is going to equalize things a bit, as well as only two par-5s to keep scores in check.  I know a lot of people like to say stuff like "I like it better when it's super tough because then the cream really rises to the top" but really the last few winners when the winning score was even or worse were Webb Simpson, Graeme McDowell, Angel Cabrera, Geoff Ogilvy, and Michael Campbell while the last few winners at -5 or better are Rory McIlroy, Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Lee Janzen, and Payne Stewart.  I mean, that's a pretty clearly better second grouping, right?  Just proves my theory that people are idiots.  Man, I got a lot of evidence for that theorem.  I'll probably be in a magazine soon.

-  Wow Lebron has just been terrible.  Kawhi Leonard refusing to let him drive by giving him the jumper and James can't hit anything.  He's 2-11 from the field right now and if it wasn't for the incredible, incomparable Mike Miller being 5-5 from three this one would be over already.  And now that's 2-12, and he's whining to the ref.  I think I hate this guy.

-  Oh yeah, and I don't have any favorites for the U.S. Open yet.  I need to take a look at a few things before I give you your good futures bets, but without spending too much time on it I think Steve Stricker and Matt Kuchar would be the two I'd throw money at if I had to right now with no time to research.

-  Wow.  This got out of hand quickly.  Like Game 2 but in the Spurs favor.  It's a 31 point lead.  Gary Neal and Danny Green have combined for 51 points so far.  Green by himself has outscored Duncan+Ginobilli+Parker.  Crazy game.  But crazy awesome.

Thursday Thoughts

-  Can anyone explain this Derrick Rose thing?  So with the Bulls up 3-2 they have a chance to close out New Jersey in Chicago, knowing a loss sends this back to a game 7 in Jersey so this is basically a do or die game.  Both Kirk Hinrich, who started at PG in place of Rose all year, and Luol Deng, probably the team's best perimeter defender, are out and in case you forget New Jersey has Derrick Williams.  In Game 5 in a similar situation (no Hinrich) Williams abused Nate Robinson for 23 and 10 assists, and as I write this mid-way through the second quarter he already has seven assists.  All this could potentially be handled by Rose, you know the former MVP and all, coming back and playing which, by the way, his doctor's have cleared him to do.  It's just weird. 

- I'm all over Revolutionary for the Derby on Saturday (10/1 right now I believe).  He's got good results, he's ridden by Calvin Borel (the pimp daddy of all jockeys) and he drew a position near the rail but not on it (#3) which is where Borel loves to be.  There's also a good possibility of rain and Revolutionary rates as the 2nd best wet track horse in the field (behind Oxbow) and Borel likes sloppy tracks as well.  Everything sets up well for Revolutionary, which actually kind of scares me a bit, but I put a good amount on him to win and boxed him up with Normandy Invasion and Orb in a trifecta.  I also let the wife pick a horse (Goldensoul because she's a hippy at heart) and let the daughter pick one as well (Charming Kitten because she's five) while throwing a bit on Will Take Charge as my longshot and still hold a WIN ticket on itsmyluckyday that I put down on a couple of months ago.  I hit the winner 3 years ago (Super Saver) and wife hit it last year (I'll Have Another) so I think we're due for another win.

-  I made the decision not to get HBO this year in order to save money and I knew Game of Thrones was going to be the biggest test.  They tried to suck me in with the free preview that let me watch episode 1 but I held strong.  Then I spent the night at Snacks' place and he's got HBO and has all the episodes and we watched two over there and I thought I was screwed, but luckily I remember that all HBO subscribers get access to HBOGO so I can used Snacks' ID and stuff and watched the last couple to get all caught up and my god this show is just so amazingly good.

I am a huge fan of the books and I never, ever imagined they could have done it this well.  All the cool shit from the books was done right and all the stuff they changed, added, or eliminated has been done exceptionally well to the point where I honestly don't have any complaints.  There's tons of hot chicks and boobs and butts and stuff which is of course welcome, but honestly the story and the drama completely sucks me in even though I know what's going to happen already.  Daenarys with the unsullied, Jamie's hand, the fight at Craster's, even something with no action like Sansa discussing Joffrey with Margaery (hot as fire) and Lady Tyrell are all good enough to be the biggest moment of the season in pretty much any other show, and we ain't seen nothing yet.  If I had to pick the best 3 non-comedic tv shows in history I'd go with Lost (the first 3 seasons or so), Walking Dead, and Game of Thrones, and GoT is so far beyond those other two it'd be like if Jim Thome raced a horse.  A good horse.  Also no, I have never seen The Wire or Breaking Bad (although I plan to eventually) so shut it.

- So Kahn out, Flip in, eh?  Tough to fault it, and I'm sure Glen Taylor pours himself a drink every time he watches Steph Curry score 16 points in a quarter and then thinks about Jonny Flynn is probably on the And 1 Tour at this point.  Really, outside of Darko over Melo and Wade and Oden over Durant that might end up the worst draft pick of this generation.  Unfortunately, because otherwise Dawger will rake me over the coals in the comments, I have to admit that I thought Steph Curry was on the fast train to bustville.  I was convinced his big numbers at Davidson were because he played sub-par competition and his team was so dependent on him that he was going to score big no matter what, but I though his absolute upside was a spot up shooter like Steve Novak or Craig Hodges.  My oh my was I ever wrong.  The guy is a completely dynamic scorer and one of the best shooters I've ever seen.  If he ever figures out how to drive to the rim he's going to be unstoppable, and he kind of is already.  It takes a strong man with a great character to admit when he's wrong, and that man is me.

-  So Byron Buxton hit another home run tonight.  That's his fifth for Cedar Rapids and coming into the night he was hitting .383/.510/.667 with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HRs, and 10 steals in 14 attempts.  Simply put - he's killing low A ball in just his second year and he's just 19 years old.  I know you don't want to rush a teenager, but it's just silly.  He's walking more than he's striking out, hitting for a huge average and showing massive power while stealing bases like crazy.  He leads the Midwest league in slugging, OPS, runs, and walks, is #2 in average and OBP, and is top 5 in homers, total bases, steals, RBI, and triples. Between him and Miguel Sano (.368/.435/.747 with 9 homers) the Twins might end up with two top 10 prospects when the mid-year Baseball America prospect ratings come out.  Pretty cool shit.

- I still can't believe Joe Johnson was ever a max deal player.

Twins Prospect Update

With the Twins having been completely out of it since the second week of the season your thoughts end up turning to the future.  Then, when you realize all those guys suck too, you dig a little deeper into the younger prospects.  With that in mind, here are the first 10 guys I thought of to check on in the Twins' system.  They might not be the top 10 guys, but they're all definitely guys who, at one point or another, were well thought of in the system and most still all are.  I didn't look up Alex Wimmers because he blew out his arm and is thus dead to me because, much like the Twins' brass, I don't believe in that sissy shit like surgery.  If it can't be fixed with spit, dirt, or leeches then I'm not interested.

Twins training staff in action

1.  Miguel Sano, 3B, Beloit (A).  You probably know who this guy is because he's universally hailed as the Twins top prospect with Baseball America ranking him #18 in all of baseball and ESPN slotting him at #28.  And in a season full of disappointment, Sano has delivered once again with a .262/.382/.526 line with 25 dingers in single-A.  His average and power have dipped a bit from previous years and the .262 might not look that impressive, but considering he's only 19 (or so they say) it's nothing to get too worked up about especially considering his incredible power and plate discipline for that age.  He may end up out-growing 3B and end up at 1B or OF, but wherever he plays he can hit.  Plus he's built like an absolute monster.  I seriously can't wait for this guy to get to the bigs.  I might just get a Beloit jersey.  Also this,

Sano stood in the batter's box awhile to watch his homer against relief pitcher Carmine Giardiana. He trotted the bases, but virtually stopped a few feet before touching the plate, taking off his batting helmet as Kernels catcher Abel Baker barked at him.
Sano glared at the Kernels dugout after finally touching the plate, with Kernels players continuing to give him significant grief. He took a step toward Baker, and the dugouts began to empty, with umpires Fernando Rodriguez and Paul Clemons, as well as both teams' coaching staffs, doing a good job of squelching what could have been an ugly scene.

2.  Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Beloit (A).  Sano's teammate with the Snappers, Rosario also saw his numbers dip a bit with the promotion to A ball but also like Sano he's young (20) and the change isn't so drastic there's need to worry.  He's still hitting over .300 this year and although his slugging has dropped from high .600s to around .500 this season that's from a drop in homers as his doubles remain around the same.  Additionally, the move this year to second base means his offense is less important as long as he can field his position, so keep an eye on that.  Rosario was ranked #50 in the majors by ESPN and with the slight drop in production canceled out by the move to middle infield I'd expect him in about the same range next year.

3.  Byron Buxton, OF, Elizabethton (Rookie).  Buxton is the guy the Twins took #2 overall in this year's draft, and I'm interested to see what the early scouting on him is.  He hasn't exactly set the world on fire, hitting just .211 between two rookies leagues this year, but his OBP is impressive for such a low average and the biggest question on his was his power and he knocked out 4 homers in 102 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League.  His production won't matter for a couple of years - he'll continue to be highly rated based on potential and "toolsy-ness" - and he's just 18 and right out of high school afterall, but keep an eye on how he does repeating rookie ball next year.  My biggest fear is we have another Ndudi Ebi here.  And sure, I could have gone with Brien Taylor or Adam Johnson (go Twins) but come on, how many chances to you get bring up Ndudi Ebi in a conversation?

4.  Aaron Hicks, OF, New Britain (AA).  Buxton before Buxton was Buxton, Hicks was picked fourteenth by the Twins out of high school in 2008 as a toolsy guy and found himself ranked in the top 45 prospects by Baseball America each of the next three years, before being unranked this season due to diminishing returns.  Not that it's time to give up on him.  Athleticism doesn't just disappear unless you're Shawn Kemp or Willie Mays Hayes and there's no indication anything has happened to Hicks, he's just seen his numbers dip but this year has been a nice rebound in AA with basically his entire slash line going up (from .242/.354/.368 to .281/.381/.453) and a career high in homers with 12.  He's still just 22 and he's made a steady progression from Rookie ball to AA in his career thus far so there's no need to panic just yet, but next year is a big one for Hicks.

5.  Kyle Gibson, P, Fort Myers (A+).  If you're like me Gibson is one of the guys you care about the most, simply because he's a power pitcher with filthy stuff who struck guys out like it was his job (which it is) before getting hurt and needing Tommy John surgery (which I assume made the Twins' upper management happy since they'd probably hope he'd stop striking people out all the time).  He had made it all the way to AAA before he blew out the arm and although his numbers weren't great at Rochester they'd been stellar all the way through the system prior to that.  In his rehab so far this year (through 10 games between Rookie and A ball) he's put up an ERA of 2.55 with a 0.96 WHIP and 17 Ks in 17.2 innings vs. just 5 walks.  Good stuff.  Here's to hoping Gibson is in the rotation next season.  No, seriously, here's to hoping.  I have a vodka & tonic in my hand right now and I'm totally drinking it.

6.  Levi Michael, SS, Fort Myers (A+).  You probably remember Michael because he was the Twins' first round pick last season at #30, the 21-year old shortstop from North Carolina who everyone said like hurry up and get up to the majors because this SS situation blows.  Well don't hold your breath.  Despite Brian Dozier getting booted back to Rochester for some weird reason with two weeks left in the minor league season I don't think Michael will be there next year unless he gets some of those sweet Melky Cabrera roids.  He hit just .236/.327/.299 this year, and although the walk rate is nice pretty much everything else is awful, particularly he's Punto-ian lack of power.  Since he's a shortstop I'd make a comment on his fielding here, but I have to admit I have no idea what a .962 fielding percentage or 4.33 range factor mean, so instead look boobs:

Classic distraction technique

7.  Oswaldo Arcia, OF, New Britain (AA).  Arcia is an interesting case because he may have the best numbers of anybody on this list (possibly outside Sano) but he's never appeared on Baseball America's top prospects lists.  He hit .375 at Elizabethton in 2010, is hitting .315 this year between Fort Myers and New Britian, and has never hit below .290 once in five minor league seasons (.275 in 2009).   And he's done it the whole way with good power (more gap power, but he's still hit double-digits homers three times) and the last two seasons he's even learned to mix in some walks.  He's been so steady throughout his career I kind of think he's probably the most sure thing in the system.  He's still just 21 but in five seasons his career line between rookie ball and AA is .315/.371/.533.  Dude's a pure pimp, and he's finally starting to get recognized-getting a spot in the futures game this year (and going 1-2 with a double).  I'd bet he shows up on some lists somewhere this year.  CALLED IT.

8.  Jose Berrios, P, Elizabethton (Rookie).  This is the guy the Twins took at #32 this year with the draft pick they were awarded for losing husky camera whore Mike Cuddyer as an 18-year old out of Puerto Rico and he has been flat-out unhittable in rookie ball.  Between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League Berrios has thrown 25.2 innings with a combined ERA of 0.70 and WHIP of 0.55, striking out a staggering 43 while walking just 4.  Guys.  That's a 10-1 K-to-BB ratio.  Since hitting E-Town he's made two starts, going a total of 9 innings and allowing 3 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, and striking out 16.  I mean holy F.  Small sample size and all yes, but, like the Shermanator, confidence is high.

Don't act like you didn't know exactly what I was talking about.

9.  Joe Benson, OF, New Britian (AA).  Benson's the one guy on this list we've already seen in the majors, putting up a .239/.270/.352 line in 21 games last season which was apparently enough to get Baseball America to name him the #99 prospect in baseball and for the Twins to assign him to AAA to start this year even though he'd never played there before.  And it was a disaster.  Benson hit just .179 in 28 games at Rochester before getting busted back to AA and then injured his wrist, required surgery.  The good news is that he completely tore up Rookie and A ball pitching upon his return.  The bad news is he's failed to break a .190 average at either AAA or AA this year with a Revere-esque slugging percentage and he's struck out nearly 30% of his at-bats through his minor league career.  I don't want to say he's a lost cause just yet, but at 24 it's time to shit or get off the pot.  Definitely the most disappointing guy on this list.  Like Cooper Manning.  Also this:

Look at this hair.  LOOK AT IT!

10.  Deolis Guerra, P, Rochester (AAA).   Although everyone on the list is more important to the future of the Twins, Guerra is someone I keep following because he's important to the past - the last link to the Johan Santana trade.   Humber is gone and threw a perfect game, Mulvey is dead or something I don't know, and Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy (GOOD!) who was then traded for two shithead relievers (BAD!).  So Guerra is it.   There's good news and bad news here.  GOOD:  Dominated AA this year.  BAD:  Sucked at AAA, career ERA of 6 with a 5.55 this year.  BAD:  Basically has been given up on as a starter, not starting a game in 2012 and only 10 of 37 in 2011.  GOOD:  Has struck out more than a batter per inning since being turned into a full time reliever.  BAD:  Sucks.  GOOD:  Could maybe be a decent reliever.

So yeah.  The entire haul for Johan Santana has been 20 relief innings out of Humber where he got completely rocked, one+ inning out of Kevin Mulvey (that's it, really?) where he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs, two shitty fucking years of Jon Rauch who would later go on to fuck me over, two sometimes exciting but ultimately frustrating years of Carlos Gomez, an injury-plagued and mediocre year from J.J. Hardy (who would go on to become one of the best shortstops in the league the year after they traded him), and 24 absolutely crappy innings from one of the relievers they traded Hardy for, releasing the other one (or whatever) without getting a single major league inning out of him.  So yeah, you could say Guerra is pretty important even if his absolute upside is a decent set-up man.  Let's get 2-3 years out of him and call it a day.  Yes?  We all agree?  Sweet.  Time for some punch and pie.