Twins Roster Preview - Hitter guys

With the depressing but not terribly surprising news that the Twins sent all the interesting young people back down to the minors and kept a bunch of lame-o veterans on the big league roster, I suppose it's time to turn my thoughts to baseball.  Also, there's a 75% chance I hate the college basketball national champion (actually probably more like 98%) so I'm going to ignore that until it's on TV because of course I'll watch.  Anyway, here's what we're dealing with from the guys who will try to hit the ball this year.

CATCHER:  It'll be Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto once again.  Although it's kind of boring, this is sadly probably the Twins strength given Suzuki's solid season in 2014 and Pinto's possible upside.  The handling of the catcher position last year was bizarre.  Signing Suzuki in case Pinto wasn't ready made sense, but then extending Suzuki and demoting Pinto was the kind of move a contending team would make, and in case you forgot the Twins were not a contending team.  Suzuki's value was likely at an all-time high given his career year and All-Star appearance and moving him at the trade deadline was probably the smart move, but here we are.

Suzuki will of course be the starter again.  Last year he put up a slash line of .288/.345/.383 which smashed his career numbers.  His peripherals suggest some regression but not as much as I had feared, so he should be solid behind the plate again.  He's not horrible defensively either, so the Twins have a legit, competent player.  Neat.  Hopefully he gets traded.  Pinto had a solid minor league track record of hitting and had a splashy debut in 2013, but last season his bat deserted him to the tune of .219/.315/.391 and given that he's a pretty terrible fielder most/all of his value comes from his bat.  He did start hitting once demoted down to AAA last year, and even in struggles he still showed good plate discipline and power when he did make contact so there's probably not too much to worry about.  Other than his path being completely blocked by the stupid 2-year deal given to Suzuki.  Trade him!

INFIELD:  Your guy Joe Mauer will be the first baseman again, which is pretty brutal.  Mauer's line of .277/.361/.371 would be slightly above average for a middle infielder, but that OPS ranked 15th among all first basemen who qualified last season, just a slight tick better than Garrett Jones.  I don't know what's up with Mauer, but an increase in strikeouts coupled with a complete loss of power is fairly terrifying given his salary.  He's stopped hitting fly balls, and the fly balls he does hit don't go anywhere.  I don't know why or what he's doing differently but whatever it is somebody please fix it!

I'm pretty stoked about the middle infield combo of Danny Santana and Brian Dozier, and these guys could be fixtures of the team when it gets good again which it will eventually so shut up.  A lot of Santana's detractors point to his BABIP of .405 and say it's unsustainable, and it is, but I found a neato expected BABIP calculator that takes a players line drive percent and all that other stuff and spits out what the BABIP should be and his came out at .369 last year, so that .405 represents a bit of luck but not this massive amount you'd usually expect from a number north of .400.  I expect him to bat close to .300 again and play a shaky shortstop.

Dozier just signed what could be a steal of a deal at 4/$20, assuring the Twins won't have to shell out big money any time soon if he continues to get better or even stays the same.  Of course they could be stuck with him if he goes back to sucking, but I choose to believe that isn't going to happen.  He doesn't hit for a high average which makes old people sad, but he has good power and great plate discipline, not to mention an above average glove and according to fangraphs base running metric (takes into account both stealing bases and taking an extra base on a hit) he was the 3rd best base runner in the game.  Add all that up, and his hair, and you get one of the best second basemen in all of baseball.  Too many tools for him to breakdown.  He's going to be a nice bargain for the next four years, and probably traded at the deadline in 2018.

Trevor Plouffe will be back at third again, probably for the last time.  With Miguel Sano breathing down his neck and still no indication Sano's going to be anything other than a third baseman this is Plouffe's last chance to prove his value.  Whether he ends up being a trade casualty (probably the best case scenario), is non-tendered in the offseason, or shows enough they want to keep him around and make him an outfielder or something he's probably done at third.  He's had a solid, if mostly unspectacular (other than that one time he was super hot hitting homers) 3-4 year run and has worked hard to go from a terrible fielder to an above average one, all while being a good, not great, hitter.  He's been an important part of a consistent 90-game loser and it's time to start winning.  Not this year, of course, be real, but next year maybe we can think about it.

Backing these nerds up we have the two headed crap factory of Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez who I still don't know why he was resigned.  Escobar showed a weird flash of power last year with 35 doubles and is a capable defender all over the place so I like having him around.  Nunez is terrible at everything.

Designated Hitter should be a fun spot with Kennys Vargas (who will also back-up at 1B) now here since he can hit the crap out of a baseball.  Vargs knocked out nine dingers and ten doubles in just 234 plate appearances, racking up an isolated power metric that would have put him in the Top 40 in the majors if he had qualified.  Considering he's like 16 years old or something that bodes well for the future.  Assuming more experience helps move his walk and strikeout rates closer to his minor league numbers (a dangerous assumption, to be sure), he could be in for a big year.  He crushed the ball in spring training with 1 HR every 14 ABs and everyone loves to watch fat guys launch baseballs out of the yard so expect him to be a fan favorite.

OUTFIELD:  What a mess.  Aaron Hicks ruined everything, and he's back in the minors again meaning Jordan Schafer, he of the career .621 OPS, will man center, flanked by the immobile Oswaldo Arcia and the ancient Torii Hunter in what is basically guaranteed to be the worst defensive outfield in the majors.  Backing up a bunch of pitchers who don't strike anyone out.  Great plan.

Ok I guess there's some upside.  Arcia is still really young at 24 and he was one of just three players under 24 last year to hit more than 20 home runs.  He still strikes out a ton but at least his power and walk rates got better last year, which is a good sign for future development.  His fielding also improved from "oh my god" to "jeez this guy is terrible", which might be his ceiling.  Hunter has been pretty much the same player the last five years, at least offensively, and if he can do it again and provide "leadership" or whatever he's probably worth having around.  That being said, if you think he's any kind of defensive wizard anymore you're sorely mistaken as he's now well below average even at a corner spot (stupid Father Time!).  That said he can't be any worse than the Willingham/Kubel/Parmelee trio of death that spent time out there last year, so he's got that going for him.

Schafer is the wild card, sort of, mainly because the Twins opted against giving Hicks a third year out of camp (or something radical like bringing Eddie Rosario up ahead of schedule) despite Schafer never really doing much of anything batted ball-wise.  He's fast, bad at hitting, and white so you know he's gritty and full of hustle and heart, but in his 147 plate appearance sample with the Twins last year he managed to hit exactly league average and it was, by far, the most successful stint of his major league career.  Somehow between the Twins and Braves last year he stole 30 bases (in 37 attempts) despite just 240 plate appearances which seems completely insane to me since "getting on base" isn't really in his wheelhouse but clearly he can run, which feels exciting.  He can play a passable CF as well, so I guess it's better than throwing an inanimate carbon rod out there.

Outfield back-ups will include a handful of starts from Escobar, that god damn Nunez, and teeny tiny Shane Robinson who goes by Suga Shane on Twitter.  He'll fit in with the Twins since he's proven he can't hit over 452 career plate appearances.  He's a 30 year old non-prospect who didn't hit in the minors either until he was much older than his competition, but a mediocre Spring Training won him a job over Hicks, though perhaps giving Hicks a regular role at AAA is for the best and I really don't know who else would be better than Robinson since they didn't sign anybody else and let's be honest it probably would have been a former Twin who was well beyond his prime anyway.  Robinson is a good fielder so he'll probably have some value plugging in as a defensive replacement in the late innings when the Twins stumble into a lead.


Overall, looking like a so-so offense.  They'll most likely have above average hitters in 7 of the 9 spots and the other two either have serious bounce back potential (Mauer) or tremendous speed as an asset (Schafer).  The bench is pretty bad unless Pinto bounces back but it's the American League so there probably won't be too much pinch hitting anyway.  Switch hitting Escobar is the only possible lefty swinger off the bench but he's been brutal against righties in his career so yeah, I'd expect a lot of sticking with the main nine guys.  It's a decent offense.  The real problem is the pitching, which I don't have the heart, energy, or ambition to tackle right now.  Later.

Twins Stuff

The reason I'm not posting as much this Twins' season is not because they suck.  They are a far more interesting team this season than last and I'm actually enjoying this more than any season in a while.  The reason I'm not posting as much is some combination of laziness and apathy and alcoholism.  I'm not sure those last two seasons make all that much sense together but neither does your face so shut it.  Anyway, here's a bunch of Twins thoughts.  I'll try to make up for low quantity of posting with a sheer overwhelming number of words.  Goal is 2,000.  I've got some Andy Capp Hot Fries, some Jefferson's bourbon, and nothing better to do with my time right now.  I can do this.  I know it.  Let us begin.

-  Since reaching the age of reason I have purchased three Twins "jersey shirts."  Not jerseys, because I'm not a weirdo, but those shirts with the name on number on them.  I've had Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Oswaldo Arcia.  Granted the Arcia call was risky because he was in his rookie season and could have gone either way, but it's now starting to pay off because he's been white hot since getting recalled.  He's just killing the ball, putting up an ISO of .250 which would put him just outside the Top 10 in the majors if he had enough at-bats.  He's basically just decided to stop hitting groundballs because they're boring.  Arcia only puts the ball on the ground 32% of the time (4th lowest in the majors) and smacks it into the air knowing that it's more exciting that way.  He's still got a ways to go and it wouldn't kill him to learn the strikezone a little bit, but he's improved his fielding this year and is on his way to developing into a legit power hitter.  Now just stop being hurt all the time.  I'd like to be wearing my Arcia shirt for many more years.  No flame outs please.

-  This Twins signing of Kendrys Morales is weird.  Not that they can't use him.  The offense has started to teeter a bit after starting off hot and he's a career .280/.333/.480 hitter which gives him a career OPS+ of 120 - no doubt the guy's a big bat and he was 5th in the MVP voting in 2009.  It's just for this team to pony up $7.5 million for a guy who is half-year rental and whose defensive "skills" are redundant with a bunch of other guys is so far out of character I had trouble believing the news when I read it.  IF, and this is a giant IF, they're doing this to see if they can contend, and when they realize the Wild Card is a pipe dream this year they figure they'll flip him for a prospect at the deadline, then I'll tip my cap.  That, however, is a decidedly un-Twins like move.  Wait and see.

-  The Twins draft, however, was more Twins-like simply because it was incredibly perplexing.  The first pick was great - SS Nick Gordon - a toolsy high school shortstop with an excellent pedigree (Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's brother) who was no doubt one of the best (potential) players in the draft.  I even saw one writer call Gordon the best pick of the draft.  The next pick was fine - RP Nick Burdi out of Louisville.  Thought to be the best relief pitcher in the draft.  I'm not a huge fan of taking relievers, but he's supposed to be the best, he's a college guy so his track to the bigs could be short, and it gives the Twins something to point to if they decide to deal Glen Perkins when his value is at its highest, something that needs to be explored.  So ok, fine.  But then it gets crazy.

Next they took a college reliever with control issues who doesn't have a secondary pitch.  Then they went with a college reliever with control problems.  Next up was a college reliever who was a complete failure when he was a starter.  Then they took a college reliever who has already had Tommy John surgery and had a rib removed for something something words.  Following that they went with some pitcher who MLB doesn't have a scouting report for so I can't bitch about anything, and then finished up their first 8 picks with another college reliever who led Missouri in both saves and home runs who moved into the rotation at the end of the season and could be a big league starter someday if he learns a change-up.  So that's 1 position player and 7 relievers.

Does that strike anybody else as completely bizarre?  Three of these guys are definite relievers with only Burdi sounding like a big league closer.  I know relievers are important of course, but generally they're failed starters who have failed in the minor or major leagues, not already having failed in college, which is the case with two of their picks.  I know that's a simplistic view, but I can't get over this drafting sequence.  Taking college relievers and converting to starters is also dicey, but it sounds like that will likely be the Twins plan with four of these guys, all of whom either need to learn or master another pitch or two or need help with their command.  Sounds to me like a bunch of guys who are going to be converted to pitch to contact.

I mean, I know the scouting team for the Twins knows a whole lot more than me, I'm not dumb or arrogant enough to suggest differently, it just seems really, really weird to me to use this many early picks and similar types of gambles.  What about a high upside high school arm?  How about mix in a position player somewhere?  I don't know, maybe college relievers are the new market inefficiency and the Twins are playing their own version of Moneyball.  Hey, after the Morales signing we may be off in all new territory here.  I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but I am less than confident that we'll look back on this draft and be like, oh damn that was sweet.

-  He probably deserves his own post at this point after spinning another gem today, but how good has Phil Hughes been?  If you want to know nothing else about Hughes this year, just know that he has 72 strikeouts versus 8 walks on the season.  That 9-1 ratio is insane and it's really all you need to know that yes, this Phil Hughes cat is for real.  That ratio is second in the majors behind only David Price and would be the best in any full season since Cliff Lee in 2010.   Seriously impressive.

Hughes refining his control has not come at the expense of his getting pounded, which can sometimes happen when you're throwing more balls over the plate.  His line drive/ground ball/fly ball splits are pretty much identical to his career norms, and as a result his BABIP is about where it's always been.  His LOB % is right where it should be too, so it's unlikely luck is playing a major role here.  One of Hughes's biggest issues has been home runs, and although his HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched has been slashed by nearly half off his 2012-2013 rate.  He's done that because his HR/FB rate is drastically down at about half what it was from 2012-2013.  Considering his ratio so far this year would put him in the top 6 last season he's probably due for some regression, but the combination of better command and control and the move to a more manageable Target Field vs. Yankee Stadium make an improvement here likely.

Advanced metrics (FIP ranks him 11th, XFIP 30th) say Hughes is a legit #1 pitcher (assuming we go with the theory that there are 30 true #1s, just some teams might have more than one).  I'm not ready to go that far, not by a long shot, but something like a #2?  That just might be.

-  Danny Santana and Brian Dozier are staying hot, and perhaps we've got our keystone combo for the next five years or more sitting right in front of us.  Since my post after Santana's call-up he's justified my probably overhype, batting .372/.407/.500, showing the power I hoped/questioned/doubted he'd have with 2 homers and 5 doubles so far for an ISO of .128 which isn't Troy Tulowitzki-like but would rank him in the top half of all MLB shortstops and his overall performance at the plate has been unreal with a weighted on-base average of .400, second in the majors at short.  Of course Eduardo Escobar's breakout (more later) and Aaron Hicks's continued struggles have pushed Santana to center field, though the two positions are pretty much a wash as to offensive expectations (though it seems harder to find a good SS who can hit).  Though Santana has been a meh shortstop so far, he's actually been an excellent center fielder which seems hard to believe considering how little time he spent in the outfield before this year.  Ideally he'll get more time at short and field it credibly enough to play there full-time.  More on this later.

Since my post on Dozier he's put up an OPS of .871 (would be a top 20 number for all positions over the entire season) with 3 homers and 6 doubles in 15 games.  Simply put he's a power monster.  I am absolutely in love with this guy.  See my last post linked above and just the improvements and refinements he's made in his approach and how they've paid off - how can you not love him?  He's sporting the #1 walk rate in the bigs among second basemen and the #4 OBP, #2 SLG, #2 wOBA, #1 ISO, and #2 OPS - that's an all-star.  Of course he's fourth in AL balloting with no hope of closing the gap which means he'll get snubbed by some combination of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia because the Twins will get one rep and it'll be Glen Perkins, but he really should make it - he's that good.  Big, big fan and if I'm right, and I usually am, he should get plenty of other chances.

-  Ok so Escobar.  Total breakout season.  OPS by year:  .571, .537, .628, and .790 this year.  The interesting notes are the natural type progression towards a breakout and that he's already within 10 of his career high in plate appearances so he's got a lot of that whole "never had a chance" thing to him.  The question is, does this pass the smell test and Escobar is the kind of hitter who ranks , or is he a fraud?  In the latter case that's awesome!  Suddenly the Twins have hitters to build around in Dozier, Escobar, Santana, Arcia (hopefully) and maybe Trevor Plouffe (I may be too tired to get to him).  Great.  But if he's a fraud it might be even better as long as the Twins recognize it (I know but let's stick with the new Moneyball thing - for me).  In that case you capitalize on his success and flip him at the trade deadline, move Santana back to your SS of the future (he's going to be moved somewhere once Byron Buxton arrives anyway) and we move on.  So let's investigate like Scooby Doo.

First thing to check is always BABIP, and Escobar is at .383 this year against a career number of .315.  Yikes.  Bad start for the "he's for realsies" crowd.  That number is fourth in the majors.  Hard to believe it's real, but let's check line drive rate.  27.3%!  That's good!  That's 7th best in the majors and a nice improvement over last season!  Even better is that those extra percentage points towards line drives are coming from fly balls, which for a non home run hitter like Escobar is a move in the right direction.  Ok, so more liners, great.  Any reason for this?

Well his walk rate is still horrible and his K rate is up a little - neither of which say fluke but neither of which suggest growth either.  What does suggest some growth is making more contact (and clearly better contact) on balls he swings at in the strikezone.  He's also swinging at more pitches outside the zone, but making less contact, which I'm struggling to interpret (thanks booze.  and obama) but I choose to believe he's taking better swings instead of that weak crap where he used to basically swing just to make contact and hit a shitty ball (the slight uptick in K rate might be evidence of this).  Though the nerd stats are kind of mixed bag of evidence and perhaps luck here, one thing that looks very good is that other than the change-up Escobar is hitting better against every type of pitch this year than in his career, including punishing fastballs.

So the jury is still out on Escobar, but I admit things look better than I thought they would.  No matter what the case he still rates as one of the better defensive shortstops in the game and that has value either way.  Escobar may be the most interesting case on the team, simply because if they decide to move him there's a pretty clear plan in place (if you believe in Santana like I do and if you don't you're probably a terrible person who roots for Europe in the World Cup).  I'll be watching this one with much interest.  Or some interest.  At least a little interest.

Monday Musings

-  Even though the Twins are terrible this year this still could end up being a pretty fun season.  If nothing else, they're at least finally agreeing with everyone else and realizing they're terrible so they're going to see what they have for the future.  So we're going to get full seasons of Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier to see what they can offer in the future.  We're going to see extended tryouts for Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia (who got his first career hit tonight in his first career at-bat which is probably like, the first time that's ever happened in MLB history) and get a chance to find out if Darin Mastroianni or Joe Benson can be a fourth outfielder someday.

It sucks that the pitching rotation is basically made up of crappy guys who are crappy, but you're going to watch 30 starts out of Vance Worley and Scott Diamond so we can see where they could slot in the future rotation.  Liam Hendriks and Cole Devries should get 20+ starts each so we can figure out if they have a future.  Sam Deduno should get a decent shot to see if he can carry over any of his WBC success.  Kyle Gibson should hit the bigs at some point this year, and with a little luck maybe we'll see at least one of Alex Meyer and Trevor May as well.

Yes they'll be terrible, but at least they'll be terrible with young guys who are fun.  Even Pedro Florimon is a little bit fun, what with all the bunting for hits.

- That Masters was pretty effing awesome, no? I won't rehash everything since you've either watched it, read about it, or don't care but I love it when somebody like Adam Scott, who is dealing with that "great player who hasn't won a major" pressure wins one, especially Augusta, because their reactions are like watching the One Shining Moment of golf.  I have no problem with Tiger, I don't hate him or anything but I don't really want to make love to him either, but watching him win is fun too because of the "greatest of all-time" thing, but I'd much rather somebody like Scott win.

That majors pressure just fascinates me with how it affects everyone a little differently.  It was really weighing down on Phil but he managed to get passed it, but Sergio Garcia has let it beat him so far down he's reached the point where he says himself that he doesn't think he's good enough to win a major, while despite 10 career top 10s in majors Steve Stricker doesn't seem to be bothered at all.  Similarly, the two younger guys you heard this about - Luke Donald and Adam Scott - seemed to be on opposite ends of the spectrum as well with Donald seeming to be more relaxed about it and Scott feeling some pressure, and if you want to throw Ian Poulter in that mix I can almost feel the steam coming off of him when it comes to majors.  For some reason I dig Poulter so I hope he's next, but Lee Westwood better hurry up to before his window closes.  Actually I'm calling my shot right now - it's between Westwood and Poulter for the British Open.  Book it.

-  Have you seen what's going down with Purdue's hoops team right now?  Guard Anthony Johnson announced he's transferring, making the third player (Sandi Marcius and Jacob Lawson were the other two) who has bounced from the Boilers this offseason.  Losing these three isn't a killer or anything as all averaged less than 20 minutes and 5 points per game and Purdue has three Rivals Top 150 guys coming in next season, but losing three of your rotation guys is still a bit alarming.  Also keep in mind that Johnson already redshirted, which means that if he transfers to a D-I school he loses an entire year of eligibility when he sits out so you know he really, really wanted out.

I'm sure Painter has everything under control (like I mentioned, great class coming in) it's just odd to see this kind of mass exodus when a coach is already entrenched for eight years and when added to the Kelsey Barlow thing last year it kind of makes you scratch your head.  It's probably nothing, but if it's something, remember how smart I am.  Otherwise forget it.

- The Seahawks signed Antoine Winfield?  Sweet jesus do they just follow the Vikings around waiting to see what they've dropped?  In the last three years 46% of Viking players they got rid off ended up on Seattle according to these numbers I just made up.  How's Sidney Rice, who I believe is behind Doug Baldwin on the depth chart these days, working out?  Maybe the Vikings can use this infatuation to their advantage.  You know, they could be all like, "Hey, if Russell Wilson gets hurt you guys really need somebody with a similar skill set.  How about Joe Webb" and then they'd trade a 5th round pick for him.  I'm a genius.

-  Lastly, Ramon Ortiz is back in the majors.  Yes, that one.  This disturbs me greatly.  Although I did learn his middle name is Diogenes, which I kind of like, so I guess I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Twins Prospect Update

With the Twins having been completely out of it since the second week of the season your thoughts end up turning to the future.  Then, when you realize all those guys suck too, you dig a little deeper into the younger prospects.  With that in mind, here are the first 10 guys I thought of to check on in the Twins' system.  They might not be the top 10 guys, but they're all definitely guys who, at one point or another, were well thought of in the system and most still all are.  I didn't look up Alex Wimmers because he blew out his arm and is thus dead to me because, much like the Twins' brass, I don't believe in that sissy shit like surgery.  If it can't be fixed with spit, dirt, or leeches then I'm not interested.

Twins training staff in action

1.  Miguel Sano, 3B, Beloit (A).  You probably know who this guy is because he's universally hailed as the Twins top prospect with Baseball America ranking him #18 in all of baseball and ESPN slotting him at #28.  And in a season full of disappointment, Sano has delivered once again with a .262/.382/.526 line with 25 dingers in single-A.  His average and power have dipped a bit from previous years and the .262 might not look that impressive, but considering he's only 19 (or so they say) it's nothing to get too worked up about especially considering his incredible power and plate discipline for that age.  He may end up out-growing 3B and end up at 1B or OF, but wherever he plays he can hit.  Plus he's built like an absolute monster.  I seriously can't wait for this guy to get to the bigs.  I might just get a Beloit jersey.  Also this,

Sano stood in the batter's box awhile to watch his homer against relief pitcher Carmine Giardiana. He trotted the bases, but virtually stopped a few feet before touching the plate, taking off his batting helmet as Kernels catcher Abel Baker barked at him.
Sano glared at the Kernels dugout after finally touching the plate, with Kernels players continuing to give him significant grief. He took a step toward Baker, and the dugouts began to empty, with umpires Fernando Rodriguez and Paul Clemons, as well as both teams' coaching staffs, doing a good job of squelching what could have been an ugly scene.

2.  Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Beloit (A).  Sano's teammate with the Snappers, Rosario also saw his numbers dip a bit with the promotion to A ball but also like Sano he's young (20) and the change isn't so drastic there's need to worry.  He's still hitting over .300 this year and although his slugging has dropped from high .600s to around .500 this season that's from a drop in homers as his doubles remain around the same.  Additionally, the move this year to second base means his offense is less important as long as he can field his position, so keep an eye on that.  Rosario was ranked #50 in the majors by ESPN and with the slight drop in production canceled out by the move to middle infield I'd expect him in about the same range next year.

3.  Byron Buxton, OF, Elizabethton (Rookie).  Buxton is the guy the Twins took #2 overall in this year's draft, and I'm interested to see what the early scouting on him is.  He hasn't exactly set the world on fire, hitting just .211 between two rookies leagues this year, but his OBP is impressive for such a low average and the biggest question on his was his power and he knocked out 4 homers in 102 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League.  His production won't matter for a couple of years - he'll continue to be highly rated based on potential and "toolsy-ness" - and he's just 18 and right out of high school afterall, but keep an eye on how he does repeating rookie ball next year.  My biggest fear is we have another Ndudi Ebi here.  And sure, I could have gone with Brien Taylor or Adam Johnson (go Twins) but come on, how many chances to you get bring up Ndudi Ebi in a conversation?

4.  Aaron Hicks, OF, New Britain (AA).  Buxton before Buxton was Buxton, Hicks was picked fourteenth by the Twins out of high school in 2008 as a toolsy guy and found himself ranked in the top 45 prospects by Baseball America each of the next three years, before being unranked this season due to diminishing returns.  Not that it's time to give up on him.  Athleticism doesn't just disappear unless you're Shawn Kemp or Willie Mays Hayes and there's no indication anything has happened to Hicks, he's just seen his numbers dip but this year has been a nice rebound in AA with basically his entire slash line going up (from .242/.354/.368 to .281/.381/.453) and a career high in homers with 12.  He's still just 22 and he's made a steady progression from Rookie ball to AA in his career thus far so there's no need to panic just yet, but next year is a big one for Hicks.

5.  Kyle Gibson, P, Fort Myers (A+).  If you're like me Gibson is one of the guys you care about the most, simply because he's a power pitcher with filthy stuff who struck guys out like it was his job (which it is) before getting hurt and needing Tommy John surgery (which I assume made the Twins' upper management happy since they'd probably hope he'd stop striking people out all the time).  He had made it all the way to AAA before he blew out the arm and although his numbers weren't great at Rochester they'd been stellar all the way through the system prior to that.  In his rehab so far this year (through 10 games between Rookie and A ball) he's put up an ERA of 2.55 with a 0.96 WHIP and 17 Ks in 17.2 innings vs. just 5 walks.  Good stuff.  Here's to hoping Gibson is in the rotation next season.  No, seriously, here's to hoping.  I have a vodka & tonic in my hand right now and I'm totally drinking it.

6.  Levi Michael, SS, Fort Myers (A+).  You probably remember Michael because he was the Twins' first round pick last season at #30, the 21-year old shortstop from North Carolina who everyone said like hurry up and get up to the majors because this SS situation blows.  Well don't hold your breath.  Despite Brian Dozier getting booted back to Rochester for some weird reason with two weeks left in the minor league season I don't think Michael will be there next year unless he gets some of those sweet Melky Cabrera roids.  He hit just .236/.327/.299 this year, and although the walk rate is nice pretty much everything else is awful, particularly he's Punto-ian lack of power.  Since he's a shortstop I'd make a comment on his fielding here, but I have to admit I have no idea what a .962 fielding percentage or 4.33 range factor mean, so instead look boobs:

Classic distraction technique

7.  Oswaldo Arcia, OF, New Britain (AA).  Arcia is an interesting case because he may have the best numbers of anybody on this list (possibly outside Sano) but he's never appeared on Baseball America's top prospects lists.  He hit .375 at Elizabethton in 2010, is hitting .315 this year between Fort Myers and New Britian, and has never hit below .290 once in five minor league seasons (.275 in 2009).   And he's done it the whole way with good power (more gap power, but he's still hit double-digits homers three times) and the last two seasons he's even learned to mix in some walks.  He's been so steady throughout his career I kind of think he's probably the most sure thing in the system.  He's still just 21 but in five seasons his career line between rookie ball and AA is .315/.371/.533.  Dude's a pure pimp, and he's finally starting to get recognized-getting a spot in the futures game this year (and going 1-2 with a double).  I'd bet he shows up on some lists somewhere this year.  CALLED IT.

8.  Jose Berrios, P, Elizabethton (Rookie).  This is the guy the Twins took at #32 this year with the draft pick they were awarded for losing husky camera whore Mike Cuddyer as an 18-year old out of Puerto Rico and he has been flat-out unhittable in rookie ball.  Between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League Berrios has thrown 25.2 innings with a combined ERA of 0.70 and WHIP of 0.55, striking out a staggering 43 while walking just 4.  Guys.  That's a 10-1 K-to-BB ratio.  Since hitting E-Town he's made two starts, going a total of 9 innings and allowing 3 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, and striking out 16.  I mean holy F.  Small sample size and all yes, but, like the Shermanator, confidence is high.

Don't act like you didn't know exactly what I was talking about.

9.  Joe Benson, OF, New Britian (AA).  Benson's the one guy on this list we've already seen in the majors, putting up a .239/.270/.352 line in 21 games last season which was apparently enough to get Baseball America to name him the #99 prospect in baseball and for the Twins to assign him to AAA to start this year even though he'd never played there before.  And it was a disaster.  Benson hit just .179 in 28 games at Rochester before getting busted back to AA and then injured his wrist, required surgery.  The good news is that he completely tore up Rookie and A ball pitching upon his return.  The bad news is he's failed to break a .190 average at either AAA or AA this year with a Revere-esque slugging percentage and he's struck out nearly 30% of his at-bats through his minor league career.  I don't want to say he's a lost cause just yet, but at 24 it's time to shit or get off the pot.  Definitely the most disappointing guy on this list.  Like Cooper Manning.  Also this:

Look at this hair.  LOOK AT IT!

10.  Deolis Guerra, P, Rochester (AAA).   Although everyone on the list is more important to the future of the Twins, Guerra is someone I keep following because he's important to the past - the last link to the Johan Santana trade.   Humber is gone and threw a perfect game, Mulvey is dead or something I don't know, and Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy (GOOD!) who was then traded for two shithead relievers (BAD!).  So Guerra is it.   There's good news and bad news here.  GOOD:  Dominated AA this year.  BAD:  Sucked at AAA, career ERA of 6 with a 5.55 this year.  BAD:  Basically has been given up on as a starter, not starting a game in 2012 and only 10 of 37 in 2011.  GOOD:  Has struck out more than a batter per inning since being turned into a full time reliever.  BAD:  Sucks.  GOOD:  Could maybe be a decent reliever.

So yeah.  The entire haul for Johan Santana has been 20 relief innings out of Humber where he got completely rocked, one+ inning out of Kevin Mulvey (that's it, really?) where he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs, two shitty fucking years of Jon Rauch who would later go on to fuck me over, two sometimes exciting but ultimately frustrating years of Carlos Gomez, an injury-plagued and mediocre year from J.J. Hardy (who would go on to become one of the best shortstops in the league the year after they traded him), and 24 absolutely crappy innings from one of the relievers they traded Hardy for, releasing the other one (or whatever) without getting a single major league inning out of him.  So yeah, you could say Guerra is pretty important even if his absolute upside is a decent set-up man.  Let's get 2-3 years out of him and call it a day.  Yes?  We all agree?  Sweet.  Time for some punch and pie.