Twins Prospect Update

With the Twins having been completely out of it since the second week of the season your thoughts end up turning to the future.  Then, when you realize all those guys suck too, you dig a little deeper into the younger prospects.  With that in mind, here are the first 10 guys I thought of to check on in the Twins' system.  They might not be the top 10 guys, but they're all definitely guys who, at one point or another, were well thought of in the system and most still all are.  I didn't look up Alex Wimmers because he blew out his arm and is thus dead to me because, much like the Twins' brass, I don't believe in that sissy shit like surgery.  If it can't be fixed with spit, dirt, or leeches then I'm not interested.

Twins training staff in action

1.  Miguel Sano, 3B, Beloit (A).  You probably know who this guy is because he's universally hailed as the Twins top prospect with Baseball America ranking him #18 in all of baseball and ESPN slotting him at #28.  And in a season full of disappointment, Sano has delivered once again with a .262/.382/.526 line with 25 dingers in single-A.  His average and power have dipped a bit from previous years and the .262 might not look that impressive, but considering he's only 19 (or so they say) it's nothing to get too worked up about especially considering his incredible power and plate discipline for that age.  He may end up out-growing 3B and end up at 1B or OF, but wherever he plays he can hit.  Plus he's built like an absolute monster.  I seriously can't wait for this guy to get to the bigs.  I might just get a Beloit jersey.  Also this,

Sano stood in the batter's box awhile to watch his homer against relief pitcher Carmine Giardiana. He trotted the bases, but virtually stopped a few feet before touching the plate, taking off his batting helmet as Kernels catcher Abel Baker barked at him.
Sano glared at the Kernels dugout after finally touching the plate, with Kernels players continuing to give him significant grief. He took a step toward Baker, and the dugouts began to empty, with umpires Fernando Rodriguez and Paul Clemons, as well as both teams' coaching staffs, doing a good job of squelching what could have been an ugly scene.

2.  Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Beloit (A).  Sano's teammate with the Snappers, Rosario also saw his numbers dip a bit with the promotion to A ball but also like Sano he's young (20) and the change isn't so drastic there's need to worry.  He's still hitting over .300 this year and although his slugging has dropped from high .600s to around .500 this season that's from a drop in homers as his doubles remain around the same.  Additionally, the move this year to second base means his offense is less important as long as he can field his position, so keep an eye on that.  Rosario was ranked #50 in the majors by ESPN and with the slight drop in production canceled out by the move to middle infield I'd expect him in about the same range next year.

3.  Byron Buxton, OF, Elizabethton (Rookie).  Buxton is the guy the Twins took #2 overall in this year's draft, and I'm interested to see what the early scouting on him is.  He hasn't exactly set the world on fire, hitting just .211 between two rookies leagues this year, but his OBP is impressive for such a low average and the biggest question on his was his power and he knocked out 4 homers in 102 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League.  His production won't matter for a couple of years - he'll continue to be highly rated based on potential and "toolsy-ness" - and he's just 18 and right out of high school afterall, but keep an eye on how he does repeating rookie ball next year.  My biggest fear is we have another Ndudi Ebi here.  And sure, I could have gone with Brien Taylor or Adam Johnson (go Twins) but come on, how many chances to you get bring up Ndudi Ebi in a conversation?

4.  Aaron Hicks, OF, New Britain (AA).  Buxton before Buxton was Buxton, Hicks was picked fourteenth by the Twins out of high school in 2008 as a toolsy guy and found himself ranked in the top 45 prospects by Baseball America each of the next three years, before being unranked this season due to diminishing returns.  Not that it's time to give up on him.  Athleticism doesn't just disappear unless you're Shawn Kemp or Willie Mays Hayes and there's no indication anything has happened to Hicks, he's just seen his numbers dip but this year has been a nice rebound in AA with basically his entire slash line going up (from .242/.354/.368 to .281/.381/.453) and a career high in homers with 12.  He's still just 22 and he's made a steady progression from Rookie ball to AA in his career thus far so there's no need to panic just yet, but next year is a big one for Hicks.

5.  Kyle Gibson, P, Fort Myers (A+).  If you're like me Gibson is one of the guys you care about the most, simply because he's a power pitcher with filthy stuff who struck guys out like it was his job (which it is) before getting hurt and needing Tommy John surgery (which I assume made the Twins' upper management happy since they'd probably hope he'd stop striking people out all the time).  He had made it all the way to AAA before he blew out the arm and although his numbers weren't great at Rochester they'd been stellar all the way through the system prior to that.  In his rehab so far this year (through 10 games between Rookie and A ball) he's put up an ERA of 2.55 with a 0.96 WHIP and 17 Ks in 17.2 innings vs. just 5 walks.  Good stuff.  Here's to hoping Gibson is in the rotation next season.  No, seriously, here's to hoping.  I have a vodka & tonic in my hand right now and I'm totally drinking it.

6.  Levi Michael, SS, Fort Myers (A+).  You probably remember Michael because he was the Twins' first round pick last season at #30, the 21-year old shortstop from North Carolina who everyone said like hurry up and get up to the majors because this SS situation blows.  Well don't hold your breath.  Despite Brian Dozier getting booted back to Rochester for some weird reason with two weeks left in the minor league season I don't think Michael will be there next year unless he gets some of those sweet Melky Cabrera roids.  He hit just .236/.327/.299 this year, and although the walk rate is nice pretty much everything else is awful, particularly he's Punto-ian lack of power.  Since he's a shortstop I'd make a comment on his fielding here, but I have to admit I have no idea what a .962 fielding percentage or 4.33 range factor mean, so instead look boobs:

Classic distraction technique

7.  Oswaldo Arcia, OF, New Britain (AA).  Arcia is an interesting case because he may have the best numbers of anybody on this list (possibly outside Sano) but he's never appeared on Baseball America's top prospects lists.  He hit .375 at Elizabethton in 2010, is hitting .315 this year between Fort Myers and New Britian, and has never hit below .290 once in five minor league seasons (.275 in 2009).   And he's done it the whole way with good power (more gap power, but he's still hit double-digits homers three times) and the last two seasons he's even learned to mix in some walks.  He's been so steady throughout his career I kind of think he's probably the most sure thing in the system.  He's still just 21 but in five seasons his career line between rookie ball and AA is .315/.371/.533.  Dude's a pure pimp, and he's finally starting to get recognized-getting a spot in the futures game this year (and going 1-2 with a double).  I'd bet he shows up on some lists somewhere this year.  CALLED IT.

8.  Jose Berrios, P, Elizabethton (Rookie).  This is the guy the Twins took at #32 this year with the draft pick they were awarded for losing husky camera whore Mike Cuddyer as an 18-year old out of Puerto Rico and he has been flat-out unhittable in rookie ball.  Between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League Berrios has thrown 25.2 innings with a combined ERA of 0.70 and WHIP of 0.55, striking out a staggering 43 while walking just 4.  Guys.  That's a 10-1 K-to-BB ratio.  Since hitting E-Town he's made two starts, going a total of 9 innings and allowing 3 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, and striking out 16.  I mean holy F.  Small sample size and all yes, but, like the Shermanator, confidence is high.

Don't act like you didn't know exactly what I was talking about.

9.  Joe Benson, OF, New Britian (AA).  Benson's the one guy on this list we've already seen in the majors, putting up a .239/.270/.352 line in 21 games last season which was apparently enough to get Baseball America to name him the #99 prospect in baseball and for the Twins to assign him to AAA to start this year even though he'd never played there before.  And it was a disaster.  Benson hit just .179 in 28 games at Rochester before getting busted back to AA and then injured his wrist, required surgery.  The good news is that he completely tore up Rookie and A ball pitching upon his return.  The bad news is he's failed to break a .190 average at either AAA or AA this year with a Revere-esque slugging percentage and he's struck out nearly 30% of his at-bats through his minor league career.  I don't want to say he's a lost cause just yet, but at 24 it's time to shit or get off the pot.  Definitely the most disappointing guy on this list.  Like Cooper Manning.  Also this:

Look at this hair.  LOOK AT IT!

10.  Deolis Guerra, P, Rochester (AAA).   Although everyone on the list is more important to the future of the Twins, Guerra is someone I keep following because he's important to the past - the last link to the Johan Santana trade.   Humber is gone and threw a perfect game, Mulvey is dead or something I don't know, and Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy (GOOD!) who was then traded for two shithead relievers (BAD!).  So Guerra is it.   There's good news and bad news here.  GOOD:  Dominated AA this year.  BAD:  Sucked at AAA, career ERA of 6 with a 5.55 this year.  BAD:  Basically has been given up on as a starter, not starting a game in 2012 and only 10 of 37 in 2011.  GOOD:  Has struck out more than a batter per inning since being turned into a full time reliever.  BAD:  Sucks.  GOOD:  Could maybe be a decent reliever.

So yeah.  The entire haul for Johan Santana has been 20 relief innings out of Humber where he got completely rocked, one+ inning out of Kevin Mulvey (that's it, really?) where he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs, two shitty fucking years of Jon Rauch who would later go on to fuck me over, two sometimes exciting but ultimately frustrating years of Carlos Gomez, an injury-plagued and mediocre year from J.J. Hardy (who would go on to become one of the best shortstops in the league the year after they traded him), and 24 absolutely crappy innings from one of the relievers they traded Hardy for, releasing the other one (or whatever) without getting a single major league inning out of him.  So yeah, you could say Guerra is pretty important even if his absolute upside is a decent set-up man.  Let's get 2-3 years out of him and call it a day.  Yes?  We all agree?  Sweet.  Time for some punch and pie.

MLB Draft Talk

I know what you've been thinking all day today, "What do I need to know about this MLB draft?"  It's the most difficult draft to evaluate or care about because nobody watches college baseball, half or so of the players are high schoolers, it's ridiculously long, the majority of players won't reach the majors, and those who do won't impact the league for 3 or so years.  To be honest, I didn't even know the draft started yesterday.  I mean, I knew it was soon, but I kind of thought it was on a weekend.  Oops.

Anyway, here's my attempt to tell you some of the interesting things from the draft, similar to what I did two years ago.  Why didn't I do this for last year's draft?  I don't know.  I think I forgot about it.  But I'm going to give it another shot.   I will confess that my opinions on players are taken from things I've read not my own eyes since I'm not a weirdo who watches college baseball.

First, the Twins.  Actually, first I just want to say that if this Zookeeper movie with King of Queens guy makes any kind of significant money I'm going door to door like Jay and Silent Bob and punching everybody who paid money to see it.  Second, the Twins:

-  I am thrilled by their first round pick, SS Levi Michael out of North Carolina.  It's obviously a huge need both now and in the recent past, and taking a college age shortstop who was a three year starter is a good recipe to get help in a hurry (2013?).  Even better, however, is the MLB network and ESPN guys pretty much unanimously called him a first round talent and the best college shortstop in the draft, so it wasn't a reach, and everything I've projects him as a solid everyday SS - maybe not a star, but this draft was short on stars from what I've read.  Reading scouting reports he sounds like his potential is like a better hitting J.J. Hardy.  I'll take that every time.  A+ on this pick.

-  Sandwich picks, high school 3B Travis Harrison and high school pitcher Hudson Boyd, are interesting picks mainly because they're so against type for the Twins, who generally prefer to go with toolsy high school outfielders or college pitchers with their early picks.  Harrison isn't remotely toolsy, but what he can do is hit and is one of the best HS hitters in the entire draft.  Although currently listed as a 3b, he'll end up at 1b or in left field, but no matter where he ends up bringing in a big power bat to a team lacking in exactly that is a nice move.  Boyd is a power pitcher, which means the Twins now have 3 in the entire system, with a couple of other decent pitches and projects as a #2 or #3 type in the majors, which would mean he'd be the ace of this crappy staff.  Obviously as a high school kid it'll be a while before we see him, but seems like another good pick.

-  Of the rest of the picks, of which there are like 100 good lord how many rounds is this thing, there really isn't much notable.   It's mostly filled with college pitchers which is good because god knows the team needs help as soon as possible, but really the only pick that stands out is second round pick, rhp Madison Boer.  He will probably get too much love because he's a home town kid (from Eden Prairie) and was a bit of a reach, but he was also the Pac-10 pitcher of the year.  The bad news is you can't ever trust a pitcher with a stripper's name.

-  The only other name that rings any bells or pops up on any kind of top prospect list is Ivan Rodriguez, and that's just because he's Pudge's kid but really who cares?  Overall a very good start to the draft, followed by a pretty underwhelming rest of the draft.  But to be honest, since it's the NBA draft and there are too many picks and I've heard of almost none of them I'm not exactly sure what it would take for me to be whelmed.  


--> A few interesting notes from other teams around the league, and I won't be talking about second generation players getting drafted because everybody slobbers all over that and to be honest I couldn't give two craps about Dante Bichette Jr. or Dwight Smith's kid:

-  Seattle made an interesting pick at #2 overall with college pitcher Danny Hultzen.  Interesting because he's basically assumed to be guaranteed to end up a major league starter, but his upside is just a #2 or #3 type, he lacks the upside you'd expect from the #2 overall pick.  Although sometimes safe is better, just ask Brien Taylor.

-  Conversely, the Pirates pick at #1 is interesting in college starter Gerrit Cole (nice first name, ass).  Cole is universally hailed as the pitcher with the best stuff in this draft - a heater that can touch 100mph, a good breaking ball, and a plus changeup to go with good control - but his stats this year didn't bear that out, and he was actually outpitched by teammate Trevor Bauer, who went #3 to Arizona, and a couple of other starters on his own team.  He's from UCLA and didn't win conference pitcher of the year (went to Twins' guy, remember?).  Potential vs. Stats.  If they hit, it's a home run.  If not, ......

-  Maybe the most interesting pick of the draft is the Nationals getting college 3b Anthony Rendon at #6.  Rendon is generally considered the best hitter in the draft and was projected to go #1 or #2 most of the year, but injury concerns pushed him to six.  Which means the Nationals last three drafts netted them three players that were consensus #1 prospects (Strasburg (RIP), Brian Harper's kid, and Rendon).  Add in Wilson Ramos, the surging Michael Morse, and a couple young middle IFs and Washington is starting to put together a nice nucleus.  Too bad their pitching sucks and they'll probably lose Jordan Zimmerman to free agency in a year.  Serves 'em right for leaving Montreal.

- Kansas City, already owners of the best minor league system in baseball according to basically everyone, had the #5 pick and went with Bubba Starling, a 6-4 high school centerfielder with tools coming out of his ass - he's ranked as being the best prep hitter, having the best prep arm, and being the best prep outfielder.  Yet another potential superstar into their system, keyword being potential.  Also a keyword:   Nebraska.  He has a scholarship waiting at Nebraska to play football, something he's also quite good at ranking as the #119 best football prospect in his class and the #6 "athlete", a designation for someone where they aren't quite sure what position he'll play (though Starling profiles as a QB most likely), in the country.  So he'll have some decisions to make, but if KC gets him he hits their "future lineup" well because they don't have a CFer like him.  Ready to have your mind blown?  After all that I just wrote, guess what?  He's white.  BOOM.  Never saw it comin', did ya?

- The funniest pick of round 1 was without a doubt the Cubs pick of high school shortstop Javier Baez at pick #9.  Not because it was as bad pick, on the contrary from what I've read, but because Baez is described in every report I've read as either having "character issues" or "a temper."  That's worked out well for the Cubs in the past, right Milton Bradley and Carlos Zambrano?

-  Lastly, the Rays had 11 picks due to the compensatory picks they got for losing Carl Crawford, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Randy Choate, Brad Hawpe, and Chad Qualls (seriously you get picks for losing Choate and Hawpe?  System = broken) and as you'd expect from them the knocked it out of the park.   They picked up one of the best prep arms available (although they'll have to get him away from South Carolina), a college OFer who projected in the top 15 but slid to #31, and a whole bunch of high upside, solid (and signable) prospects with really only one reach, but a reach they could afford with that many picks on day 1.  Just a solid draft from a solid organization.

--> Finally, assuming anybody is still reading (both this post and this blog) since I've gotten a couple specific questions in the comments here lately let's take it to a mailbag.  I've done this once before and it worked out pretty well, so if you have a question you'd like me to answer for you, about literally anything, shoot it over to downwithgoldy@yahoo.com and I'll answer them at some point next week.  Don't be shy now.