Big Ten Basketball Preview 2016 (oh hi!)

Guess what fuckers?  I may be back.  I may also not be back.  I am unsure.  However since I can't quite get in the mood to care about college basketball this year, maybe writing up some basic stuff will get me motivated again.  Who knows.  And what better way than to write a Big Ten Preview, using a magazine as my sole source of information?  This should be terrible.

1.  INDIANA HOOSIERS.  Don't worry, there's no doubt Tom Crean will screw everything else and the Hoosiers will underachieve because that's just what he does, but I like the team in general.  They have a super nice little big man/guard combo in James Blackmon and Thomas Bryant, and any time you have two players on the same team that make me think how sweet that team would be on NBA Jam you know I'm going to overrate them.  Plus I think I read somewhere that this Anunoby guy is suppose to like, make a leap or something.  If Crean didn't screw him all up already.

2.  WISCONSIN BADGERS.  Ugh.  Gross.  The entire team is back from last year to be boring and white, but they weren't terrible so I suppose they're probably the favorite to win the conference.  At least Greg Gard doesn't seem nearly as loathsome as Bo Ryan was.  Still pretty loathsome though.  Just like that traitor Illlikainenen.  I confess that I do like watching Nigel Hayes though.  I actually kind of hope he finally has a three point shot figured out, because that would be fun to watch.  I feel icky.  80% of this team is voting for Trump.

3.  OHIO STATE BUCKEYES.  I actually already put down a long shot future wager on them to win the NCAA title at like 66-1, so I gotta stick with it.  Yeah, it's probably a dumb bet but that's why it's a longshot.  But here's the thing I like.  Remember year after year after year, Thad Matta somehow manages to pull in one of the best classes in the country.  Like every year.  And the really good guys like D'Angelo Russell and DeShaun Thomas eventually leave early for the draft.  But all those other guys stick around, and now they're sophomores and juniors and seniors.  There's a whole group of pretty good players here.  If one (or more!) can step up a bit and become an actually like, super good player this could end up a really good team.  Or I'm a big fat idiot.

4.  PURDUE BOILERMAKERS.  Last year they had three big fat tall guys and things went alright.  This year they have two big fat tall guys and that might even work out better since Caleb Swanigen and Isaac Haas (too many As!!) can ball.  But they still don't have a backcourt and I don't think they have since Lewis Jackson, who couldn't shoot.  But they have Spike Albrecht you say?  I still don't get why this is/was a big deal because, spoiler alert, Albrecht sucks.  He had one good half against Louisville on national tv and suddenly he's good?  He's terrible.  A benchwarmer who got hot, went back to warming benches, and then transferred since his coach knew he sucked.  Now he's going to suck for a new team.  What a huge story!

5.  MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS.  This is a weird team for Izzo.  He has a killer recruiting class and he's going to need it since there's nothing else here.  He has Tum Tum Nairn, who wouldn't shoot the ball if you paid him, and Eron Harris, who wouldn't stop shooting if you cut his arms off, and then like, a bunch of supposedly good freshman.  I know putting them fifth is just me falling for the hype of POTENTIAL and UPSIDE, but every other team in this league freaking sucks.  I'm serious.  Every team after this one is just terrible.

6.  MARYLAND TERRAPINS.  You know who doesn't suck though?  Melo Trimble.  He's going to be on a bad team, but he's good enough to pull them up this high.  I expect him to shoot approximately one zillion times this year.  That is all I can write about Maryland because nobody knows anything else about any of these guys and if they say they do they're lying.

7.  ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI.  Malcolm Hill also doesn't suck, and also will be in the player of the year hunt.  The difference between he and Trimble is that Hill has a few players back that I'm familiar with.  So why are they below Maryland?  Because I'm tremendously inconsistent.  Looking at this roster Tracy Abrams is probably already hurt again, I liked this Mike Thorne guy before he got hurt, and Maverick Morgan has always been a player who existed.  They have Leron Black too, who I remember was supposed to be a stud but obviously that hasn't worked out too well at this point, but like Nickelback says "It's never too late."

8.  MICHIGAN WOLVERINES.  They could be higher if they managed to not get anybody hurt, which seems unlikely.  Caris LeVert basically missed his last two seasons here, and Gary Walton was hurt for what seemed like the entire year two seasons ago and I know this because I had him on my fantasy team.  Zak Irvin hasn't missed as much time as those guys, but he's been absolutely atrocious and I remember reading it had to do with some injury.  Look, I'm not saying Jon Beilein is intentionally hurting his players, but I'm not NOT saying it either.

9.  MINNESOTA GOPHERS.  This is far more optimistic than most predictions out there, but it's my blog so I can do whatever I want.  Once you get down here most of these teams are terrible.  Like really terrible, so it wouldn't be hard for one of them to jump up and get as high as 8 or 9 and why not the Gopehrs?  They have more experience coming back then the majority of the teams below them, a better recruiting class, and a couple supposedly impact transfers.  So there's upside.  I think a lot of this season depends on Pitino's coaching.  The first year he came here he did a lot of interesting things, particularly on offense, that were refreshing after watching Tubby's teams run nothing but flex over and over again.  Then, for some reason, that died and I couldn't ascertain if they were running any set play at all on most of the possessions.  That works when you have a loaded, athletic, smart team.  Even though I like most of this team, they certainly aren't that.  So let's run some plays!  Have some fun!  Finish ninth!

10.  NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS.  I have no doubt one year soon Northwestern will finally break through and make the NCAA Tournament, but I'll believe when I see it.  Every time they get close they blow it.  And since they wear purple might as well make the ole Vikings comparison here.  But there's no doubt they've risen above perennial bottom feeder status.  The big recruiting splash guy Vic Law looked good his freshman year before missing last year with an injury and I assume he's back.  They probably have a big doofy foreign big guy I can make fun of/fall in love with, and Bryant McIntosh is somehow a really, really good player.  He's so punchable he probably should have gone to Duke, but he's really good.

11.  IOWA HAWKEYES.  If you were a reader of this blog, you may remember at once point I was going to do a thing where I kept track of the best chuckers in the country.  That, and everything really, fell by the wayside, but I've always remember Peter Jok because he popped up on my list because he had a pretty insane usage rate for a bench player while not being a very good shooter.  Well guess what?  Everyone is gone from Iowa except for him.  Now, last year he kept a pretty high shot rate but was actually an excellent shooter, but with nobody else out there to draw defensive attention I'm predicting he goes back to crappy.  Crappy, but high volume.  Buckle up.

12.  PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS.  The only thing I know about Penn State this year is that their best player is Shep Garner, and that makes me smile because his name is Shep.  You know who else's name was Shep?  The weirdo creepy security guard from Above the Rim who played basketball against air with no ball because he once accidentally killed his best friend.  But how can you go against someone who can do this?



You can't!  And he's in work clothes!  Man, Penn State should really go get this guy.

13.  RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS.  Rutgers was bad last year.  Like really, really bad.  Except of course when they spanked the Gophers, which was a really fun game to watch.  They have a large chunk of the team back, which is one hand is good because in theory players get better from year to year, but on the other hand is bad because they were really, really bad last season.  At least they're interesting.  Interesting in that they are wildly inefficient and technically horrible and making baskets, but at the same time play at a really fast pace and put up a whole bunch of shots, while also playing zero defense and if they do manage to make the opponent miss they very rarely get the rebound!  In other words, it's fun to watch other teams light them up.  Not the Gophers, of course, but other teams.

14.  NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS.  Thank god Petteway and Shields are gone and the Huskers can go back to sucking like they're supposed to.  We didn't invite Nebraska to the Big Ten to be mildly competitive at basketball, we invited them to be good at football and fight to not be in last place in basketball every year.  I was getting pretty sick of them not being completely dreadful and going after many of the same recruits the Gophers were.  Now the natural order of things can be restored.  Also pretty sick of Tim Miles at this point.


Well there you have it.  My completely accurate and well researched predictions for the big ten this season.  As far as this blog, I have no idea how often I'll be posting.  Maybe after most games.  Maybe never again.  NOBODY KNOWS!

Preseason Top 25 - Reactions

Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out.  You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck.  I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random.  Spoiler alert:  The Gophers aren't in here.


1.  NORTH CAROLINA.  They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible.  They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball.  Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good.  SPOILER:  nope.

2.  KENTUCKY.  Hell I don't know.

3.  MARYLAND.  It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it.  They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team.  Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole.  Still, three seems really freaking high.

4.  KANSAS.  Want to hear something that will blow your mind?  Perry Ellis is back for another year.  Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner.  Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards.  This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap.  With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good.  Bet on them.  Do it.  Go do it.  They're like 10-1.  Do it.

5.  DUKE.  Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right?  This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it?  Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season.  NOT BLOODY LIKELY.  Good luck with him and one million freshmen.  Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too.  Yes, Rice.  The college.  If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive.  I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.

6.  VIRGINIA.  Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball.  Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell.  And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers.  Ugh.  Stop already.

7.  IOWA STATE.  If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise.  But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs.  Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high.  They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.

8.  OKLAHOMA.  The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again.  They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time.  Take notes, Cavaliers.  Also, this is way too high for these guys.

9.  GONZAGA.  Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out.  Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999.  So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully.  They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early.  This section was extremely boring.

10.  WICHITA STATE.  They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back.  That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley.  No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll.  Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two.  I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.

11.  VILLANOVA.  God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win.  They were so freaking good.  Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off.  I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing.  Also their thing:  guards.  And they have a bunch of them again.  So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early.  It's what they do.  Lesson learned.

12.  ARIZONA.  Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone.  That is a lot of people to be gone.  However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers.  Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you.  And you would die.

13.  MICHIGAN STATE.  Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in.  For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop.  I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here.  He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor.  The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn.  I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn.  So like, is that his thing?  What does he do if nobody guards him?  He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker.  I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't.  I hope that's what happens with Nairn.

14.  CAL.  This team could be like whoa.  I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1.  They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits.  Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits.  If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team.  Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach.  This is my favorite sleeper this year.

15.  INDIANA.  Oh come on!  Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall?  No chance.  It's the same team.  The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good?  Or even passable?  No.  Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense.  Should score a lot of points though.  Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.

16.  UTAH.  I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball.  Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys!  His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March.  He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point.  Should be fun.  No idea about all these other guys.

17.  WISCONSIN.  Oh come on!  You're kidding me.  Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger.  I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach.  But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else.  I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too.  People are morons.  Badgers suck this year.

18.  VANDERBILT.  Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking.  On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back.  Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good.  In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

19.  NOTRE DAME.  Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us."  The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone.  Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball.  In summation, these guys suck.

20.  UCONN.  They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before.  Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish.  How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball?  That's insane.  Also, I probably watch too much basketball.

21.  LSU.  One of my favorite sleepers this year.  Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible.  As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what.  LSU is on that list.

22.  BAYLOR.  Baylor still?  I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are.  The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone.  Oh what's that?  A really young back court coached by Scott Drew?  I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.

23.  PURDUE.  Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book.  A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs..  It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time.  I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet.  Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season.  They also can't shoot at all.  So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.

24.  BUTLER.  I tried to write about Butler like 4 times.  That's probably enough.

25.  MICHIGAN.  Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament.  That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams.  They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team.  Probably better than this ranking.  Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet.  College sports needs trading, would be so awesome.  Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I.  PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!

Oh. Hello.

It has been a long damn time since I posted.  A month.  Not dead, just lazy.  I do plan to be back full force once Gopher basketball gets going, I really do.  For now, since at least 1 person is asking for a new post, I'll write something.

-  Welcome aboard, Eric Curry!  Quickly following up the Amir Coffey signing (yay!) the Gophers also picked up forward Eric Curry.  He's a combo type forward from Arkansas, and while he's not ranked on Coffey's level he's well regarded in his own right:  ranking #106 by 247sports national composite and the #21 ranked power forward.  He ended up besties with Coffey and once Amir signed Curry was pretty likely to follow in what hopefully becomes a trend.

He's described as a combo forward, which generally means he's either too fast for PF and too strong for SF or too weak for PF and too slow for SF.  Hopefully the former and it sounds good so far.  Scouting reports tout his athleticism and he's already got a decent amount of polish posting up which will be a nice change for a Gopher team that hasn't had a true post up artists since, I dunno, Ralph Sampson I guess.  Before you jump all over that remember Ralph had some moves.  Curry's other highly touted attribute is his "high motor" which means the Sampson comparisons can pretty much end now.

His weaknesses are he needs to get stronger and he needs more of a perimeter game.  Well, he's a high school senior right now, and I'm pretty sure the ESPN scouting report just rubber stamps "must get stronger" on early every recruit because that's a pretty common and understandable need.  The perimeter game should come around because, get this, he's a 78% free throw shooter.  Sign him up!


-  The Twins season ended, you may have learned, and I struggle whether or not to say this was a successful season though I lean towards yes.  We got to watch some meaningful baseball almost all the way to the final day of the season - that's good!  Then again, they cratered and didn't get the Wildcard spot - that's bad!  Though, they probably weren't as good as their record anyway - that's bad!  But we got to see a glimpse of many of the future hopefully building blocks of future success - that's good!  So I'll stick with slightly good.  Here's some other Twins stuff:

1.  Say good-bye to Trevor Plouffe.  I found some sight the other day that gave projected arbitration salaries for players, and Plouffe is guessed at $7.7 million.  I like Plouffe and he's a decent player who works hard and seems like a good dude and was part of some very bad teams without complaint, but at that salary, with Miguel Sano slated to be the third baseman for the next billion years, the world's most unmovable contract stuck at 1st, and a slew of younger, cheaper bats that need DH appearances and spot starts there's nowhere for him to play.  Whether via trade or simply non-tendering him I just can't see him sticking around, which is unfortunate because he's WonderBaby (who is now 7)'s favorite player, though she calls him Treasure Poof.

2.  Do the Twins need an ace?  More on the need for an ace later, if I feel like and/or remember, but I don't think this is doable.  They've tossed way too much money at Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, and Phil Hughes lately to really go after it, unless they were going to pony up the big bucks and do it right by going after David Price or Jordan Zimmermann or something but I don't see that happening.  With Hughes, Santana, Kyle Gibson, and a slew of young arms worth trying out I'm not even sure they need to do anything with the starting staff (but the bullpen?  Fire everybody).  There are enough decent names out there that if they can get a steal (a real steal, like that 2/$20 million contract the Cubs gave Jason Hammel) then it might be worth it.  But please, no 4 year deal for Jeremy Guthrie.  Please.

3.  Overall the future here seems pretty neat.  They need a catcher and a shortstop for sure and those are not very easy to fill so hopefully dudes who are already here can fill those roles, but other than Brian Dozier's second half cratering things seem pretty clear.  I hated the Torii Hunter signing when it happened because that money could have been better spent, but hell, maybe there is something to clubhouse chemistry and veteran leadership.  I'd be happy to see him back at a reduced rate assuming he's cool being the 4th outfielder at best.  Next year should be pretty fun.  Looking forward to it.


-  Seems like we are heading towards a Royals vs. Mets World Series.  I'm good with that.  Of the playoff teams you had teams that were too successful (Cardinals), too evil (Yankees), too rich (Dodgers), too big of assholish fans (Toronto), too unlikable (Rangers), too it hurts because it should have been us (Astros), and the Pirates, Cubs, Royals, and Mets, and you have to eliminate the Cubs because the whole Back to the Future thing is already more irritating the constant DFS commercials.

So really, Royals and Mets gives me probably two of my top three choices (with the Pirates).  And yeah sure, the Mets are terribly run organization and the Royals are kind of dickish and have the most clueless manager in the playoffs, but you're never going to get perfect.  It should be fun and I won't be annoyed no matter who wins.  What's wrong with that?  Plus the less R.A. Dickey there is to watch, the better.  Though I will really miss watching Kyle Schwarber play outfield.

And I'm determined to do a live blog of at least one World Series game.  I think I have almost every year, so I can't just stop now.

-  Wolves should be pretty fun.  Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng.  Could be a lot worse, right?  At least it should be fun.  A legit shot at back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, finding out if LaVine can be like, good, and seeing if Rubio can stay healthy is a good reason to at least occasionally watch.  I mean, Rubio running a break with those two wings and Towns trailing?  That's awesome.

And how good can Towns be?  Rookie of the Year is pretty much a lock, the only question is can he challenge for MVP.  I say yes.  Did you see him hitting those threes against no defense this offseason?  I mean, most guys can't do that.  And have you seen his preseason stats?  Averaging 10.7 pts, 6.7 rebs, and 1.0 blocks per game, but that's only in 21 minutes per game!  If you extrapolate that out to a whole game it comes out to something like 35 pts, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, and 7 blocks per game.  You know the last player to put up those kind of numbers?  Yep, that's right - Hot Sauce.  Towns is that good.


-  I know what you're thinking - "this blog sucks now."  But I know what else you're thinking, why is there no mention of this year's Gopher hoops team?  Well, I'm not ready yet.  I'll rip something off at some point, but right now it's like, no.  I am not ready to write about Joey King just yet, and I don't really know how to spin the Bakary Konate/Gaston Diedhiou stuff into a positive, nor can I figure out how to look forward to Carlos Morris being a big key to the season.  I'll get around to it, I swear.  For now, let me write something quick about other NCAAB stuff.

-  ACC is going to be garbage, relatively speaking.  Only North Carolina looks poised to be good.  Duke lost everybody and will now count on Grayson freaking Allen, Virginia I'm pretty sick of already so move on, Louisville lost literally their entire roster, Notre Dame without Jerian Grant is meaningless.  Miami and FSU could be semi-interesting but in general I'm expecting the Big 10 to take the challenge thing.

-  LSU is one of my big sleepers and you can still get them at 50/60-1 to win the National Championship.  Yes, they lost Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin, but they have a ton of guard play coming back and two absolute stud recruits in do everything big man Ben Simmons (likely #1 pick in next year's draft) and swingman Antonio Blakeney (who is now linked to the Louisville "scandal").  There are a lot of questions about the front court, though Simmons can maybe do it all, but all those guards back and a monster recruiting class scream contender to me.

-  Another team I like a lot is Cal (don't worry, Justin Cobbs is gone).  They pick up the #4 and #7 players in the entire country, both front court guys, who join their three best players, all guards.  Add in Cuonzo Martin, a really, really good coach, and you'd be a fool to pass them up at 20-1.  A FOOL!!

-  I might end up doing a Big Ten preview post, and if I do I promise I won't be like every other writer and say something like "based on talent the Badgers shouldn't be this high, but Bo Ryan blah blah blah barf"  No!  This is the year the Badgers suck ass.  They are gutted.  They have Nigel Hayes, who I love and is awesome, Bronson Koenig, who is annoying and super hateable and sucks, and that's it.  All of their other players suck.  They won't be bottom of the basement, but there's zero chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament.  None.  Zero.  None.

-  A Big Ten team I do like a ton this year is Purdue, though that seems like a not uncommon thought.  And their games are going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck to watch.  Massive rim protection in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas (Hammons is elite, Haas is 7-2 so should get there eventually) is joined by 6-9 Caleb Swanigan, one of the top couple center recruits in the country, and Raphael Davis is back who, you surely don't remember this, won B10 defensive player of the year.  They also couldn't shoot for shit last year and there's no real reason that should change.  I fully expect multiple games where they win without breaking 50 points.

-  Oh yeah, speaking of points we have a new shot clock now at 30 seconds.  Even better though they got rid of the 5-second closely guarded rule.  I'm not sure if that's a positive change as far as the game goes, but it's going to be super fun to go to games this year and hear morons yell "5 seconds!" one billion times because nobody reads anymore.  Also, speaking of going to games, Snacks and I were lining up our trip out to Sioux Falls with our sons to go check out the Gophers vs. Oklahoma State game and then right as we were figuring stuff out bam, it turns out my parents' have this dumb christmas party that same day where we are supposed to be blackjack dealers or something.  Thanks a lot, mom and dad.

-  Perry Ellis, the 37-year old Kansas power forward, is back for another year.  He has now surpassed Wade Lookingbill, Jess Settles, and Brian Cardinal for longest tenured player in college basketball history.

- I don't know.  I guess that's all for now.

-  Oh yeah.  Also Rick Pitino 100% knew there were sex parties for recruits and also that happens at every single school.  Haven't you seen He Got Game?

Previewing the Sweet 16 - Thursday

Calm down I'm here. Sorry. Unfortunately, the day after Selection Sunday we found out Mrs' W's grandpa died out in Utah, so it was a whirlwind of activity figuring out how to get out there, how to get the kids taken care of, and actually being there and seeing family and going from function to function and what not so I haven't been able to post anything about the Tournament. Luckily, however, the games were always on in the background and I'm really good at tuning out mindless conversation, so I know everything that happened. And, as a compulsive gambler, I probably know even more than you. Here's what's going on Thursday:


Wichita State vs. Notre Dame: Here we have that age old classic matchup of offense vs. offense, with Notre Dame averaging 1.21 points per possession (3rd in NCAA) and Wichita averaging 1.14 (16th). At first glance, Wichita seems more likely to be able to hold the Irish down than vice versa since their defense ranks much better, but playing in a weaker conference like the Missouri Valley can sometimes prop that up.  In the Shockers first two tournament games they allowed 76 points (1.1ppp) and 65 points (0.94), higher numbers than the 0.92 on the season - though the Kansas game was mighty impressive.

Notre Dame was pointed out by many as an upset prone type of team because of their reliance on the three pointer and suspect defense, and though they've shown a little better profile in the games so far (only 6 threes attempted against Northeastern, a good defensive effort vs. Butler) two three point wins, one in OT, don't have me convinced they're any less vulnerable.  Wichita is vulnerable to the three, but you have to work hard to get open shots against that defense, and they do an excellent job defending inside.  The Irish don't get offensive rebounds and don't create turnovers so they're going to have to hit open shots to score - which they are certainly capable of.

One of the most impressive things about the Shockers is they are super balanced in their inside/outside scoring.  They aren't dependent on the 3, but they can hit a ton of them if you leave it open - they beat Indiana hitting just two threes, they beat Kansas hitting ten.  The Shockers are an incredibly balanced team with no major weaknesses and a lot of strengths.  I mentioned before how a team's stats can be inflated going against inferior competition, and that's certainly a possibility here, but I think Wichita's results in the tournament the last two seasons show they aren't some overrated mid-major.  

Bet:  Wichita State -1.5 (2 UNITS), Over 137 (2 UNITS)



Wisconsin vs. North Carolina: This is a horrible matchup for the Heels. This is a team that can’t shoot, but thrives in transition and creates second chances for itself by absolutely owning the offensive boards (5th in the country). They don’t create rurnovers either, so they absolutey need those boards to score if they can’t get out and run. Now Kennedy Meeks, one of their two big time rebounders could be hurt or at least limited, and they’re about to go up against Frank Kaminsky. Yikes.

Seems pretty straight forward on the Badger end of things. Offensively they’re pretty much content to go one shot and be done, but always get that one shot. They won’t turn it over and the UNC defense doesn’t force turnovers, so most likely the Badgers will finish in single digits. They shoot the ball well enough that they won’t have to worry about creating second shot opportunities, and I expect to see four, if not five, Badgers sprinting to get back on defense as soon as a shot goes up. With everyone back and no or limited turnovers, the transition chances for the Tar Heels are going to be close to nil.

Generally the Badgers try to limit their opponents three point chances, but unfortunately Bo Ryan is smart enough to know that’s the exact opposite tact to take against North Carolina. The Badgers will likely pack the defense in and go under all screens (possible exception against Marcus Paige), forcing Carolina to make outside shots, something they’ve been horrible at this year. With Meeks status up in the air they’ll be even more limited in the paint anyway, so for them to have a chance someone like Justin Jackson or Nate Britt is going to have to suddenly learn how to shoot the lights out, or Brice Johnson will have to have the game of his life - seems unlikely. The Badgers, who hate to fast break like a fat kids hates asparagus, will send all five defensive players to the boards as well to take away as many second chance points from UNC as possible.

What does this all add up to? A slow it down, one shot each time down the court for each team kind of game. Does that sound more like a North Carolina kind of game, or a Wisconsin kind of game? I’ll give you a hint: Meeks leads the Heels in eFG% at 56.6% - four of the Badger starters are better than that, and Bronson Koenig would be if his 2-point % wasn’t so awful.

Bet: Wisconsin -5 (2 UNITS), Under 144 (5 UNITS).



West Virginia vs. Kentucky:  In order to beat Kentucky, several things have to happen and yes, all of them need to happen.  First, you have to be able to limit the monsters on the blocks.  Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles are huge, natural scoring machines, Willie Cauley-Stein is an athletic freak who's learning how to score, and Dakari Johnson is seven-feet tall and can jump over everyone's head.  Keeping them contained is no easy task, but it can be done with big, physical defenders and strategic double teams.  West Virginia doesn't defend the two well, has limited big men and only one shot blocker.  Not off to a great start.

Second, you have to hope the guards miss their outside shots and then rebound when they do.  Kentucky's one weakness is they don't have great perimeter shooting, and though they're usually smart enough to pound the ball inside the Harrison twins and Devin Booker can occasionally fall in love with the jumper shot. You'd much rather take your chances there than letting the big guys go to work in the paint, you just have to get the rebounds - easier said than done with UK rebounding 40% of their misses this season.  Kentucky's guards will have a significant size advantage over the Mountaineer guards so when they double and then close out the Wildcat shooters will be able to shoot over them, they'll just have to hope they miss and then rebound.  They're an average defensive rebounding team, so this could go either way.

Third, you have to be able to score.  Kentucky is a great, yes great, defensive team and they can shut teams down.  The good news for WVU is that they can score in some unconventional ways by excelling at getting themselves extra possessions.  The Mountaineers are #1 in the country at forcing turnovers and #4 in the country in offensive rebounding - that's a whole lot of extra shots.  They're a terrible shooting team, but they've gotten this far by creating extra scoring chances for themselves, something that will be the key to the game.  Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over much and they handled Arkansas pretty well, but they're surprisingly vulnerable to opponents' offensive rebounding. 

This will be an interesting game, because it's a team with an unconventional profile taking on Kentucky, a team they'll have to play against in a completely different way than they're used to.  Another wrinkle is Bob Huggins being involved, because no matter what you think of the guy as a person he's one hell of a coach.  Don't forget, the last time these teams matched up in the NCAA Tournament was when that John Wall/Demarcus Cousins Kentucky team looked unstoppable, and WVU won.  

Bet:  West Virginia +13.5 (2 UNITS), Under 136 (1 UNIT)



Xavier vs. Arizona:  Arizona is clearly the more talented team here.  The Wildcats have three or four future NBA draft picks on their team, one guaranteed in the lottery, and another guy who made the All Pac-12 First Team.  The Musketeers' best player is the guy everyone is making jokes about how he looks like a guy playing at the Y and is an Uber driver in his spare time.  In many ways this is your classic glitz and glamor vs. grit and hustle match-up, until you realize Arizona works its collective ass off and is one of the best defensive teams in the country so they're pretty damn gritty hustley too, just more talented.  So can Xavier keep this one close?

I think it's going to depend on if Arizona can hit threes.  Xavier tends to play a more packed in defense, giving up more three point attempts than average, and then hit the boards hard to limit second chances.  Arizona is not a great three point shooting team, although they do hit a good percentage.  The Wildcats prefer to get the ball inside, and then take threes when they're open.  Only Stanley Johnson and Gabe York took over 100 shots from behind the arc on the team this year, though they did hit each hit better than 37% so daring them to shoot is playing with fire.  There's no real easy way to stop Arizona, but keeping them out of the lane as much as possible is a good start.

Xavier is very well coached team, and as such I expect they'll realize they can't win an uptempo game against an Arizona team that thrives in transition.  This game will likely turn into a half court kind of affair, and with the Musketeers ability to keep Arizona off the offensive glass and their likely emphasis on getting back on defense rather than getting their own misses means the game will come down to Xavier not turning it over, and Xavier making enough shots to keep up with Arizona (X will likely not turn over Zona much).  The Musketeers played great offensively against both Ole Miss and Georgia State, and though Arizona is on a completely different level, Xavier so far has that look of a team that both knows it is not supposed to have gotten this far, and also knows it has nothing to lose.  Sounds kind of stupid, but it's also kind of a thing.

Bet:  Xavier +11 (1 UNIT), Under 136 (2 UNITS)

Back tomorrow for Friday's games.  

Big Ten Basketball Preview: #1 Wisconsin Badgers

I truly hate to say this, you know I do, but the Badgers are by far the best team in the conference and it isn't particularly close.  I just wrote about how Ohio State has all that crazy talent, but the Badgers were an excellent team last year and have basically the entire squad back.  This is usually where I might bash them for not having that much talent on paper and stuff, but at this point that's just stupid.  Bo Ryan might never win the recruiting awards or whatever, but he knows how to get players to run his boring system and he knows how to take guys who seem like stiffs for two years suddenly blossom when he needs them to.  I can no longer deny his wizardry or his ugly grinch face, but I sure don't have to like it.

Frank Kaminsky is the best example this year, following in the footsteps of all the other ugly white stiffs and becoming a star.  Two years ago Kaminsky averaged just 10 minutes per game, shot 44% from the floor, and averaged just 4.2 points and 1.8 rebounds per game.  Then Berggren, Evans, and Bruesewitz graduated, and he suddenly averaged 13.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game and won Big Ten honors.  It's some kind of horrible circle of life.  Well he's back, and despite being the best player on the team he's probably third in talent level, because Nigel Hayes (conference sixth man of the year as a freshman last season) and Sam Dekker are poised to breakout.  

We said the same thing about Dekker last year, and although his improvement wasn't exactly a breakout, it was a step in the right direction (from 9.6 to 12.4 points per game and from 3.4 to 6.1 rebounds).  It did come with a minute increase though, from 22 to 29 per game, and his advanced stats were basically stagnant from last season, other than rebounding.  Wisconsin's only major loss is Ben Brust, and although they have the pieces to pick up his minutes Dekker may see more time with the ball - this can only help.  Hayes is one of my favorites in the conference already, if I could have a favorite who played for Wisconsin, which I cannot.  He doesn't fit the Badger model at all since he's an athletic beast, but he's smart and fundamentally sound so he works.  He's also a defensive terror, which they like.  He doesn't have the three-point shot Sconnie loves, but he does have a smooth jumper out to the perimeter so it wouldn't surprise me if he develops it eventually, maybe this year.  He's going to be First Team All-Big Ten eventually.

Like I said, Brust is gone, but Josh Gasser (8.8ppg/1.9apg), Traevon Jackson (10.7/4.0), and Bronson Koenig (3.5/1.1) are all back so there's no shortage of perimeter players.  Jackson has turned himself into an awfully good point guard by learning to score while becoming a better distributor at the same time, and Gasser was basically back to the same player he was three years ago prior to his knee injury, so he'll look to take another step forward and take on some of Brust's scoring from last season.

Pretty solid lineup:  Jackson, Gasser, Dekker, Hayes, and Kaminsky.  This is going to suck.


OTHER PREVIEWS:
#2 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Sweet 16 Thoughts - Thursday

So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected.  All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early.  My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues.  Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking.  Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:

#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford. 
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played.  There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy.  Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton.  Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.

It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win.  I'm on Stanford here laying the three.

#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach.  I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time.  More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism?  Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career.  Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7.  Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?

Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot.  Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works.  This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline.  Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard.  Also possible.

#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here.  They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well.  They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin.  They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.

I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately.  For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves.  No chance.  Florida -4.5 for three units.  I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock.  Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.

#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone.  San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames.  You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly.  I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.

Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim.  Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers.  Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots.  I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close.  I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units.  I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would.  Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5. 

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Badgers

Life has changed quite a bit for the Badgers since the Gophers waxed that ass.  If you recall the Badgers started the season 16-0, and with wins over St. Louis, St. John's, Florida, Virginia, Marquette, and Iowa were looking like a dominant force.  Since then, however, the Badgers have gone just 3-5 and in doing so have shown their major weakness:  defense.  Seems strange to say that about a Wisconsin team, and the numbers (44th overall in defensive efficiency) look merely like a down year for a Bo Ryan team and not a disaster, but if you focus on conference play only they rank 6th in the Big Ten.  A Wisconsin team just the 6th best defensive team in the Big Ten?  Strange, but true.

Now most of what I wrote in the preview for the last game still stands, but since then Big Ten guards have really exposed that defense.  Yogi Ferrell scored 25, Caris Levert went off for 20, Dre Mathieu had 18, and Drew Crawford 30.  Rayvonte Rice had 24 when they beat the Illini and Keith Appling was out with an injury in Wisconsin's big win over Michigan State.  Driving guards can have huge success against the Badgers, so it will be key that both Dres drive the lane as much as possible, both in the halfcourt as well as whenever transition opportunities arise. Of course we also can't forget that the Badgers don't really have much of an interior defensive presence, a big reason why driving the lane works so well, and Mo Walker destroyed them last game so that should be a focal point as well.  The points will be there, if the Gophers take them.

And they'll need to score plenty, because Wisconsin is still an offensive machine, and a decent sized part of why the Gophers beat the Badgers last time was Wisconsin missed a ton of open shots, hitting just 5-20 from 3.  Given that they shoot a robust 37% on the season, it's doubtful the Gophers will get that lucky again.  The Badgers aren't just good at shooting threes, they also take a ton of them (40% of attempts, 43rd in NCAA), and nearly everybody can make them.  Of their top 8 minutes guys only Nigel Hayes doesn't shoot it, with the other 7 guys all having attempted at least 30 three-pointers this season.  They have five guys with 50+ attempts (Gophers have 3, for reference) and they all shoot well.  Dekker hits 33%, Brust and Traveon Jackson both 38%, Gasser 43% and Kaminsky 41%.  The Badgers have cooled down since conference play started, hitting just 34%, but they're still scary.

I suppose I could try to write more but there isn't really much of a point.  The Gophers flat out aren't going to be able to stop Wisconsin, and the Badgers shouldn't be able to stop Minnesota either.  One team will grab a couple extra loose balls, one team will make an extra stop, or one team will miss a few open shots the other doesn't.  It's going to be a close one, but Kohl gives a little extra edge to Stupidsconsin.

Badgers 78, Gophers 76

Gophers 81, Badgers 68

Great win.  Fun win.  Quickly on to the ten things I liked and didn't like:


1.  What kind of 5-9 guy takes the ball right at a 7-footer and scores (twice!)?  What more can we say about DeAndre Mathieu at this point?  Guy is incredible.  Try to imagine a guy 15 inches taller than you with enough athletic ability to be a major college major sport athlete, then try to imagine doing literally anything with him trying to stop you, yet Honey Gopher took it right at Frank Kaminsky twice at the rim and scored.  Add in his ballhandling, passing ability, the best mid range jumper on the team, and his defense and I'm not so sure we should be talking about Andre Hollins as the best player on this team.  There just are no words left for Mathieu.  I think I've written positively about him after every single game.  It's incredible that he was late JuCo signee.  He's just so good.

2.  Please baby santa jesus let Andre Hollins be ok. Yes that was a great win without him, and it didn't have the feel of a "uh oh our best player is hurt everybody raise your game" kind of emotional win, just a straight out outplayed a good team win.  That makes me think that even worst case scenario, which I think I have already mentally prepared myself for, the Gophers will at least be ok.  That being said, obviously this team will be in much better shape for any kind of March run with Dre on the court so please please please let him be ok.  The timing is a bit of a break (I probably shouldn't use this word) because they just went through the toughest part of the schedule and have a relatively easier stretch coming, not to mention only one game in the next nine days so hopefully the rest will help.  He's getting an MRI today, so hope for some good news [EDIT: I just read that the MRI came back negative.  Whew.  Hopefully he can rest up and only miss a game or two].

3.  It would be impossible to talk about this game without mentioning Mo Walker.  Wow, I never saw that coming.  With Elliot Eliason in early foul trouble and most ineffective, Walker absolutely dominated the paint.  He fought for post up position and when he got the ball he attacked the rim, especially whenever he had a smaller player on him, and off the ball he was all over the offensive glass.  We got a glimpse of this against Ohio State when he had that miracle 60 seconds or whatever, but he put a full game together against Wisconsin and it was glorious.  I'm not quite ready to say he's arrived - his footwork is still only so so and he has a tendency to wait to long to actually go up for the shot - but he's at least on the bus and on the way.  Do you realize he had the second most shot attempts on the team in that game?  No idea where that aggressiveness has suddenly come from, but I'm a big fan.

4.  Speaking of big men, Nigel Hayes is going to be a nightmare.  As good as Walker was, I came away more impressed with Hayes than anyone else outside Honey Gopher last night.  That's about as polished a post game as I can remember seeing in a freshman in quite some time, and he's already nailing the mid range jump shot, and since he's a Badger you know that will eventually evolve into a 3-point shot a la Jon Leuer and countless others.  He needs some defensive work as most freshman do, and he'll eventually become more aggressive, but he's already got the offensive game to be a force.  Hopefully Bo Ryan does that thing where he makes him fall in love with the three pointer and stay off the block.  That would really be ideal for everyone other than the Badgers and Badger fans and screw them.

5.  I could not be more impressed with this team's offense.  The Gophers scored 1.40 points per possession and once again crushed it on two point shots, shooting 59%.  I've talked before about how I love a creative offense, but Pitino has gone completely away from that and with the team buying in it's working.  It's basically become pick and rolls with the goal dribble penetration, and picks in the lane to help the big guys established good position on the block.  They have pretty much become an attack the rim type team and a more patient team, and I'm in favor.  I love how against bad teams they spread the floor and shot a bunch of threes, to where I believe they were at about 40% of all attempts were three pointers.  Now in Big Ten play that number is just 33%, 7th in the conference.  The Gophers only took 7 three pointers last night, and seeing as how they aren't a great shooting team using that shot when it's there rather than making it a main offensive weapon seems like a good way to go. 

6.  Related, the defense was....ok.  Not to great, allowed 1.17 points per possession, but considering Wisconsin's season number is 1.20 I suppose we'll take it.  I actually had trouble figuring out what exactly the Gophers were running, and at one point I thought it might have been a match-up zone.  The more I watched, the more I realized it was a simple man-to-man but with extreme sagging into the lane away from the ball.  That's good as far as taking away dribble penetration, which has killed the Gophers, but you're playing with fire against a good three point shooting team with basically at least four shooters on the floor at all times.  Luckily the defensive energy was high and the Gophers were able to close out effectively when needed and the rotations were solid.  It helped that the Badgers missed a few open looks, but all in all a decent defensive performance against a very, very good offensive team.

7.  Malik Smith is a really valuable player.  He's just steady, a rare quality for a chucker and it might even remove him from chucker status altogether.  Do you know he has the best turnover rate on the team and one of the better ones for a guard in the conference?  Sure he takes some shots that really can only be described as "kind of dumb" and sure when he tries to drive the lane it can sometimes look like the way fourth graders drive the lane (although that was working for him last night) but he seems to be a calming influence, and kind of a leader out there which I really wasn't expecting.  He's learned how to fit into an offense where he isn't the #1 option, and has really dialed back his three point attempts.  He even tries on defense.  I thought I'd like him for his chuckeration, but I just like him as an overall piece of the team instead.

8.  Joey King simply has to be better in the post.  He's just fine as a spot up shooter and fits the stretch four role Pitino loves well in that regard, but a couple of times against Wisconsin he found himself on the block guarded by Ben Brust or Josh Gasser and when he got the ball he was unable to score and did so horribly.  It's actually an improvement that he didn't travel.  This needs to be his #1 offseason project.  For all his faults, Oto Osenieks has become the clear best option at PF, although if he's ever the trigger man on a pick-and-roll again (which he was once last night, with predictable results) the entire team should be immediately benched for allowing that to happen. 

9.  Maybe the weirdest part of all this, is I never worried.  Really.  Usually a double digit second half lead has me wondering just how the Gophers are going to screw everything up.  Usually an offense that's humming a long beautifully has me waiting for the six minute scoreless stretch that is bound to come up.  And yeah I know that happened against Michigan and against Michigan State, but yesterday had a different feel.  This team is fun to watch and they're confident, and they just seem to know what they're doing.  Maybe that's faint praise, but watching this team is night and day from last season. 

10.  As of right now, the Gophers would be in the "Should be in" category of a Bubble Watch.  As it stands right now, the Gophers would be pretty comfortably in the NCAA Tournament.  An RPI of 21 (per ESPN) with the #4 Strength of Schedule, 3 wins over Top 20 RPI teams, and zero losses outside the Top 100 is pretty much a slam dunk case.  That is why this next stretch is so important - we've seen Gopher teams rack up impressive computer numbers early, but we haven't seen one take care of business down the stretch in quite some time.  The Gophers will be favored in six of the next seven games (@Nebraska, Northwestern, @Purdue, Indiana, @Northwestern, Illinois) with only a game in Madison to break up a relatively comfortable swing.  5-2 in this stretch would basically guarantee an NCAA bid, while 4-3 would still have them in good shape since they close with Penn State at home.  This Gopher team has a chance to give Gopher fans a comfortable Selection Sunday, but that's something many Gopher teams have had an opportunity to provide, hopefully this is the one that actually comes through.


Up next is Nebraska in Lincoln, which is actually a pretty tough game.  I will try to have a preview up at some point before tip-off.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Stupid Badgers

I hope you aren't too disappointed that you didn't get a 10 Things I Liked and Didn't Like about the Iowa Game post.  The problem was that I watched it while being jumped on nearly non stop by two young children which, in case you don't know, is non conducive to making observations about some of the minutia going on at the game, which I try to do.  Additionally, I didn't work Monday so oops drunk Sunday night.  Also it's the kind of game that I didn't expect the Gophers to win and I'm not upset that they lost.  Yeah, that 10 point lead in the first half was fun and interesting and all, but unfortunately Iowa is a very good team this year and there's more important games coming up.  Essentially Iowa made every god damn open shot they had and when they missed they got the rebound.  THE END.  That's not very fun to write about, so instead we move on to Wednesday's game against the stupid, stupid Wisconsin Badgers and noted baby eater Bo Ryan.

First things first - this is not your typical Badger team.  First of all, this is the fastest paced Wisconsin team since 2007.  Second of all, after two years of absolutely elite level defense this year's Badger team is merely very good and after I watched them get torched by both Indiana and Michigan I'm willing to say they might not even be that.  I'm not disparaging Wisconsin (the team, I am definitely disparaging the state and do every day) because it would be hard to find a better non-conference resume, but this team is different.  The principles are the same, and the things they do well and struggle with are the same as every year under Bo Ryan, but overall it's a more dynamic team, a faster team, and a team that can put up a ton of points in a hurry, as Illinois can tell you.  They can still grind it out, see the Virginia game, but unlike years past controlling the tempo and speeding the game up is not necessarily a successful strategy this year.

Maybe their biggest offensive weapon is they can shoot, and that goes for essentially everyone who may get playing time against Minnesota outside of Nigel Hayes, and he adds a whole different dimension I will get into later if I don't forget.  Wisconsin has generally been super reliant on the 3-ball for their offense (some things don't change) but this season they can shoot.  They're hitting 39.2% of their 3-point attempts, their best mark since Ryan showed up, and at the same time they're shooting fewer of them, the fewest on a % of field goal attempts basis since 2009.  It's a more diverse offense because guys like Sam Dekker and Josh Gasser can actually get to the rim, and they have an actual post presence in Hayes, their first real post up guy since maybe Marcus Landry (no, Ryan Evans does not count).  In case it's not obvious, yes, I'm very scared of this team and have said so since the preseason.

Fortunately though, as Indiana and Michigan have just shown, they can be beaten.  Both were able to torch Wisconsin with hot shooting, and that's really the way to beat the Badgers.  They don't cause turnovers much at all so you're going to get your shots, it's just a matter of getting good shots and making them, and if you miss you're not likely getting another chance at it because they rebound well on the defensive end.  They still play the same suffocating up the line defense with heavy denials on the wing, so it's essential Mathieu and Dre Hollins can get past their man and into the lane to draw defenders and create open looks, because perimeter ball movement on it's own doesn't work against Wisconsin.  Of course, beating them down the court and scoring in transition is always a great option for this team as well.

One other possible advantage the Gophers have is inside, because unlike the majority of Wisconsin team's in my lifetime this team doesn't really have a big body to go up against Elliot Eliason or Mo Walker.  Frank Kaminsky is the tallest player on the team at 7-feet, but he's not exactly a banger, although he is a capable shot blocker based on his size and reach alone.  Their one rough and tough inside guy is Hayes, but he's just 6-7 and as a freshman has some issues with fouls.  I would feel better if the Gophers had more inside options or at least a power forward who is, you know, and actual power forward, but hopefully the EE/Mo combination can take advantage.

Before the Ohio State game I would have said there's no way the Gophers could beat Wisconsin, and even though Ohio State is continuing to struggle that doesn't change anything for me.  The game against the Buckeyes showed that Richard Pitino can put together a solid game plan, even one out of his preferred style of play, and the current personnel has the ability to stick to it.  Wisconsin is always so good at dictating the game that you usually end up having to adjust, it's just an advantage to the Gophers that this season the Badgers are a little more like a normal, human team.

Both teams have some solid advantages, and luckily for the Gophers their three biggest weaknesses: turnovers, getting killed on the offensive boards, and 2-point defense are things that will matter less against Wisconsin than against most foes.  It will all come down to creating open shots and making them on both sides - as long as Wisconsin doesn't shoot lights out from three (and they certainly could) I feel good about the Gophers' chances.

Minnesota 73, Wisconsin 66.

Big Ten Hoops So Far

With the Holiday tournaments and B10/ACC Challenge behind us this a nice time to take a look around the league and see what's happened so far, and what we think we know about these teams.  So let's do this, power ranking style of course because we are on the internet after all.  As usual, all stats per kenpom.com. 

1.  WISCONSIN BADGERS.  I told you dopes that as much as it pained me to say that Wisconsin would be really good this year, and it appears I may have actually underrated them.  10-0 right now with wins over top 100 kenpom teams St. Johns (67), Florida (13), Green Bay (87), Saint Louis (28), West Virginia (60), Virginia (19), and Marquette (45).  That is freaking impressive and easily the best list of anybody in the Big Ten and maybe the nation but it's a lot of work to double check that so let's just run with it.  At this point kenpom projects them to win every game the rest of the year other than @Michigan and @Iowa (they don't travel to Columbus or East Lansing), so we're looking at a possible 29-2 with a ton of good wins - a #1 seed for the Badgers?

It's the same formula they use every year - super slow pace of play, good defense, good rebounding, and efficient shooting.  Frank Kaminsky is the newest big dumb slow fat white guy who has suddenly blossomed into a star under Bo Ryan and Sam Dekker has been as good as advertised.  The one problem they might have is they aren't very deep with the five starters all playing 28+ minutes and no bench guys playing more than 15, and their big time reliance offensively on the three pointer.  I suppose that's been their MO, so no need to worry too much.  This is a really good Badger team and it sucks.

Shout out to #1 Badger fan Matty Wisconsin.  Big fan, Yao Ming jersey wearer, and fastest beer chugger I've ever seen.  And he's on twitter!  @strykerpks.  Check it.  He follows @spaghettios and is a big fan of the Beer Stars.

2.  OHIO STATE BUCKEYES.  At 7-0 with two good wins (Maryland, Marquette) and two decent wins (Ohio, Wyoming) the Buckeyes haven't been seriously challenged (all wins by 10+) and they're doing it, no surprise, with their defense.  OSU ranks #1 in total defensive efficiency, #3 in opponents effective field goal %, and #10 in turning their opponent over.  Basically they will force turnovers all the time and when they don't it's really hard to make a shot against them.

Of course everyone expected Ohio State to be elite defensively, but the big question was how the Buckeyes would fare on offense with the loss of DeShaun Thomas.  Everyone wondered who would step up, and although nobody has really stepped into his place is hasn't mattered because everybody has upped their game just a bit and they're doing it by committee - six players average between 9.0 and 11.4 points per game.  It's weird to look at their stats because they only play nine guys - like, literally nine guys as only one other guy has played at all and only two games - and they all play 13+ minutes and all contribute. 

I thought Ohio State would struggle this year on the offensive end and that would knock them down a peg, but they're doing just fine as a collective group.  There may end up being some rebounding issues that could do them in, and they haven't played a truly great team (and won't until January) so there are still plenty of questions, but I'm impressed so far.  Great coaching job by Thad Matta, and I probably should have seen that coming.

3.  MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS.  I still think Sparty will probably end up the best team in this conference, but horrendous effort against North Carolina, particularly at home.  When was the last time Michigan State was out rebounded that badly (49-38)?  It helped that they shot so poorly, of course, and that's another good point because shooting just 40% from 2 is so bad you almost have to try to do that poorly, which would actually explain a lot about that game.

Obviously a loss to North Carolina doesn't wipe out all the good that the early win over Kentucky did, but they've struggled to pull away from teams all year and it's the kind of thing that could bite them in the ass come March.  Letting Oklahoma, Columbia, and Portland hang around is really not great considering those are the exact type of teams that Michigan State is likely to face in the first round of the tournament.  Of course, it's Tom Izzo here, so the team is likely to get better as the season goes on and I can't imagine an Izzo team ever getting bounced in the first round unless it's already happened and I don't remember and if it has don't remind me - I want to remember Izzo as I remember him, not all mixed up with facts and stuff.  That's for nerds.

4.  IOWA HAWKEYES.  They were everybody's sleeper for this year, and they've more than lived up to that billing.  Wins over Drake (#98), Xavier (#65), Notre Dame (#74), and an absolute stomping of UTEP (#90) make up a pretty good resume this early in the season, but Iowa's most impressive outing may have been their overtime loss to Villanova (#5).  The Hawkeyes had a double digit lead well into the second half before Nova got white hot to go up 7 with four minute left before Iowa clawed back to tie it up.

Roy Marble looks like he's going to be one of the top players in the conference this year, Aaron White has suddenly morphed into a complete player, and transfer Jarrod Uthoff is way, way better than I ever expected.  Those three have plenty of room to operate too, because the team's two point guards (Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell) both hate shooting and they don't really have a center.  Well they have three, but they're all pretty horrible and are basically the poster children for not developing past your freshman year (seriously they may as well have been coached by Tubby).  The Hawkeyes still don't shoot the ball very accurately, but they've done everything else so well this year that it's covered up that issue.  Interested to see what happens down the road.

5.  MICHIGAN WOLVERINES.  This is probably the hardest team to evaluate.  They have three losses, but all are explainable (the neutral court loss to Charlotte is a little head scratching, but it's not like they're a bad team).  Because of those losses (the other two were @Duke and @Iowa State) the only good win they have is against Florida State in overtime, and the rest are against scrubs.  Granted, they've taken care of business against said scrubs and their advanced metrics look good (ranked #27 overall), but there's nothing truly impressive at all in the results, so I mostly have them at #5 based on the belief that they'll come around.

I expect they will mainly because they haven't struggled the way I expected after losing Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, in that they're taking care of the ball just fine (14th best in TO%).  They're still missing out on that driving ability Burke and Hardaway had, although Nik Stauskas is doing his best to fill that role.  Right now they only have three real offensive threats, and Glen Robinson seems to be regressing and I have trouble believing Caris LeVert is for real (mainly because of that terrible name).  I expect Michigan to end up a Top 25 team, but I won't be shocked if they don't.

6.  MINNESOTA GOPHERS.  I believe I had them at seven when I did my preseason rankings, so this says I'm impressed enough to move them up a spot, which I suppose is a good thing.  I still have one jillion questions about this team, and unfortunately none of them are going to be answered until conference play starts in January because the next three opponents are pretty much worthless as a measuring tool.  The rebounding and interior defense will likely continue to be an issue, but Drizzy Matheiu is better than I could have hoped and the guards are going to keep them in a bunch of games and maybe even manage to sneak out and upset or two.  I still don't think this is quite an NCAA Tournament team, but it's getting closer.  That win over Florida State impressed me.  Looking forward to Big Ten play.

7.  INDIANA HOOSIERS.  I get this impression that people think Indiana is good and guess what?  They really aren't.  What have they done besides show everyone how big a chucker supposed "point guard" Yogi Ferrell really is?  Ok, sure they played a great game against UCONN that went down to the wire.  Ok, I'll give you that one.  But then they got crushed by Syracuse and they have nothing else on the resume.  The win against Washington sounds good, but the Huskies are absolutely terrible.  The win over Stony Brook is probably their best win.  I actually think the Hoosiers are less likely to bomb out than Michigan, but there are plenty of questions here.

Basically with so many players suddenly thrust into new roles with everything they lost last year the team is struggling with who fits where and how to play together.  Thus they're turning the ball over at an alarming rate (21.5% of possessions, ranks 310th) and just not sharing the ball well (328th in assists per field goal).  It probably does help when your point guard shoots all the time, but he's also their most efficient player so what do you do? They're very talented and very deep, so a great coach like Tom Crean I'm sure will eventually get this all straightened out.

Ha ha just kidding Crean sucks and is a terrible person and I hope he burns the program to the ground.

8.  ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI.  Illinois has a nice shiny 8-1 record, but it's a completely empty 8-1 record.  There isn't a single good win on that resume.  A win over UNLV sounds good, until you realize that UNLV is a shitbox this year, and Valpo is the only other win they have that's even close to going to matter at the end of the year.  They had a good chance at a quality win on the road against a somewhat frisky Georgia Tech team, but they let the Yellow Jackets finish the game on a 19-4 run so Illinois lost by three.

Despite a new coach and a whole new group of players they're still doing the traditional Illinois thing where they like to sit around and shoot jump shots.  And, also a tradition at Illinois, they're not very good at having those jump shots go in.  Luckily, thus far, they've been extremely good at rebounding their own misses, something that is unlikely to continue once we get into Big Ten play.  They don't create turnovers at all, either, which means their only means of getting extra possessions is by those offensive boards, and, like I said earlier if you were paying attention, I doubt that keeps up against Big Ten teams. 

9.  PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS.  I don't know what it is about my attraction to Penn State but I can't stop being infatuated.  I'm like Freddie Prinze looking at Jessica Biel.  No wait that one made sense.  More like I'm some handsome devil like Ryan Gosling and I ended up falling in love with that lumpy chick from Girls.  Penn State has all kinds of flaws and I shouldn't be attracted to their fat ass and busted teeth, but there are enough good things here that I keep overlooking those flaws and fixating on that great personality, sense of humor, and alcoholism.

Ok that was a pretty tortuous analogy, but the point is that Penn State is probably horrible but I love them anyway.  A couple of really good guards including maybe the best one in the conference, a team that never turns the ball over and shoots well, a patchwork front court that fits together just well enough to be dangerous, and a horrible defense that ensures their games are going to entertaining.  Then they get a sharp shooting transfer from Pitt eligible in the second semester.  They haven't necessarily done anything impressive, but they do have wins over St. John's and LaSalle.  I dunno, I'm rooting for them.  WHAT'S WRONG WITH ME!??!?!

10. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS.  Nebraska has actually been a pleasant surprise this year.  Pleasant as in I, and many others, expected them to be completely horrible, while instead they've been somewhat competent. Wins over Miami and Georgia aren't great, but they're solid enough, and they've been competitive against good teams like Creighton, UAB, and UMass.  The advanced metrics aren't great as they're the only Big 10 team outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (a near loss to Northern Illinois and they're 305 ranking doesn't help things), but they are looking better than they have the last couple of years.

Tai Webster, the much heralded freshman point guard from New Zealand, hasn't worked out as well as hoped yet as he struggles with his shot and turns the ball over far too frequently, but those are problems most freshman point guards deal with so there's no reason to panic.  The Huskers have gotten solid play from their transfers, with Terran Petteway (Texas Tech), Deverell Biggs (Juco, reshirted last year), and Walter Pitchford (Florida) all in the team's top four in scoring and rebounding.  Perhaps Nebraska is taking a page out of Iowa State's and becoming transfer U.  No just kidding. 

11.  PURDUE BOILERMAKERS.  Purdue beat Boston College 88-67 in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, and I feel confident in saying that's the first good thing they've done all year.  Really.  Despite being 8-2, before beating BC and following that up by beating Eastern Michigan this weekend, the Boilers wins were all over teams outside the Top 208 with four of those wins by less than double figures.  One loss was fine (to Oklahoma State) but the other was pretty wretched (to Washington State).

What's gone wrong?  They're just thoroughly mediocre as Matt Painter has been unable to bring in top tier talent lately.  Nine of the twelve Big 10 teams could be consider elite offensively or defensively, but Purdue (along with Northwestern and Nebraska) is just blah.  The Boilers are playing at a lightning quick pace, their fastest ever under Painter, perhaps due to their overall lack of size, but it's not translating to easy baskets, and they're giving up way too many easy ones on the other end.  Purdue is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.  They're really bad.

12.  NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS.  I cannot think of a single good thing to say about Northwestern this year other than that they probably have a really good combined IQ.  They've basically been crushed by every single decent team they've played so far while sneaking wins against crap teams.  This is how it's going:  Northwestern is ranked #140 overall by kenpom's advanced metrics.  The next worst team in the Big Ten is Nebraska all the way up at #92.  There isn't a worse team in the ACC.  There's just one worse in the Pac-12 and Big 12, and two worse in the Big East.  They've been one of the worst teams in major conference basketball.

They're the worst team in the conference in offensive efficiency, and the second worst in defensive efficiency.  I thought the return of Drew Crawford would mean this team would have an outside chance to rise to the level of competitive, and he's been fine, but the rest of the team has been crap.  Dave Sobolewski has been absolute garbage, Alex Olah is putting up embarrassing rebounding numbers for a seven footer, and Tre Demps is still a terrible chucker.  Chris Collins will likely find a way to make the program more competitive, and he's already got a nice recruiting class for next season coming in, but this year is the kind of year where a team with tournament aspirations needs to sweep Northwestern.  Which, as you know, means the Gophers are headed to splitsville.  Come on Pitino, break that curse that I just made up.


So that's where we stand with just a few short weeks to go until conference play.  I see three teams with a shot at a #1 seed, two others who are almost certain to get bids, and then a small group of teams who will be around the bubble.  I think the Gophers and Indiana are a step ahead of teams like Illinois and Penn State, but as usual it's going to come down to who defends home court and who can steal some games.  I'm happy to say I see the Gophers right in the mix for a bid at this point, so hopefully that keeps up.  Should be a pretty entertaining league this year with a lot of teams very close together in talent and skill level.  Avoiding losses to the bottom three teams will be key.

Big Ten Preview

Here we are on the eve of the Gophers kicking off their exhibition season.  Given that, here is a bunch of words that will serve as my official Big Ten preview.  I already talked about the Big Ten like a hundred years ago, and here's a post where I kind of talk about NCAA basketball this year in general, so this will be the capper on the trilogy of posts that form my NCAA preview this year.  Man, I feel like I'm writing an epic or something.  Everybody knows the best things come in trilogies.  I dare you to find something other than Twilight that proves this wrong.  Indiana Jones tried to make a fourth something and it bombed.  Trilogies are the best, ergo, I am the best.  Here are my thoughts, teams in order of my predicted finish.

Big fan of this behavior

1.  MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS.  It's almost unfair.  The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year.  That's at least three NBA players.  For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).

If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics.  Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there.  Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots.  Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas.  Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on.  It's just not fair.  Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us.  Which is nice.

2.  OHIO STATE BUCKEYES.  Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas.  Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots  (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount.   Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.

So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft.  Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year?  Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise.  Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier.  He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like.  Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:

Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.?  Come on, you know you see it.  And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player.  I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.

I can't wait to watch this guy.  I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.

That's a beer bong coming in from the right side there.

3.  WISCONSIN BADGERS.  I've written too much about Wisconsin already, which you can see if you click on the two links above, but I can't help but be really high on them this year as much as it pains me.  I think their starting guards are absolutely perfect for Bo's system this year.  His boring, boring system of boring opponents to death by being so boring.  Then add in Sam Dekker, who brings a level of athleticism and ability the Badgers haven't had since, geez, maybe Devin Harris, and there's a whole new wrinkle to the offense.  The biggest knock on the Badger offense, besides being so boring, is they get over reliant on the 3-point shot and don't penetrate the lane at times.  Well Dekker can solve all that by being unguardable.

Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed.  Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville.  Yes, I hated writing every word of this.

This seems like a lot of teeth.

4.  MICHIGAN WOLVERINES.  People seem to think Michigan is going to be really, really good this year and I suppose that might end up being true, but I think they're more of a good not great team.  I mean, it's a pretty big deal to lose your two starting guards to the NBA, especially when they pretty much dominated the ball all the time.  Going from Tre Burke to one of Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, or a freshman is going to be a bit startling, even if Derrick Walton is one of the top PGs incoming this year.

I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team?  Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one).  Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from?  If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year.  So yeah.  I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year.  Possibly Penn State too.  You'll see why.

I still hate Iowa, but this is a good argument it it's favor

5.  IOWA HAWKEYES.  The trendy pick for not just Big Ten sleeper but national sleeper, and why not seeing as how they basically have the same team from last year and they were very, very good the second half of the season making it all the way to the NIT Championship game.  Last year Iowa was pretty good at just about everything except shooting where they were just dreadful, ranking 308th in the NCAA in 3-point percentage.  That's pretty much going to decide just how good they can be, and with the same team back things don't look great, but they do everything else well enough that I think 5th is just about right.

One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit.  It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s).  Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up.  They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad.  Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100.  And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.

One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team.  I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe.  Also this Peter Jok guy?  The one newcomer this year for Iowa?  Holy cow what a gunner.  He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7).  Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need.  Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.

Indiana was surprisingly lacking in pictures.

6.  INDIANA HOOSIERS.  Indiana, like Michigan, is another team I feel is getting a little bit too much national love based on how gutted they are to last season.  They do bring in a hell of a recruiting class (four ESPN Top 100 guys) and they actually complement what they bring back, but I guess, again like Michigan, I'm just hesitant to throw my opinion behind a team with so many questions.  Besides the four new guys you've got Yogi Ferrell who can't shoot, Will Sheehey who is kind of a spaz, and a bunch of guys who played very limited minutes last year. 

Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around.  Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess.  The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden.  Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson.  Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is.  Because it's true.  [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana.  I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]

I like her she seems smart.

7.  PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS.  This is the team, outside the Gophers, I'm having the hardest time ranking, and I think, like the Gophers, it's because my emotions keep getting in the way.  See, I love guys like Tim Frazier and want them to do well.  When Talor Battle was at Penn State (and no, this is not some kind of Penn State phenomenon) I desperately wanted him to do well and carry his team to the NCAA tournament - which he did only to be beaten by some Temple jerks.  Obviously putting them 7th, and I think this is pretty much their ceiling, means I don't think Frazier is going to make it, but if he's 100% back and everything gels perfectly they could do it.

It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team.  Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).

8.  MINNESOTA GOPHERS.  I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover).  But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.

You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get?  Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get?  Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them.  The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night.  I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team.  Here's hoping they make it.

The pillow says Illinois. Nice microwave.

9.  ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI.  Hey you know what's cool about Illinois?  Besides nothing?  They're another team who has already played an exhibition game this season, and since there are tons of questions about how the team's going to shake out maybe we can learn a little something from that box score.  Such as how Tracy Abrams, the point guard, led the team in shot attempts.  Oh what an Illinois thing.  Seriously, Chester Frazier must be rolling in his grave looking at the line of shoot first point guards who have populated that back court since he graduated.  Well the line is just two, but they've both been extra annoying so it seems longer.

This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season.  It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck.  Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while?  No.

The website said these were Northwestern girls.  Good enough for me.

10.  NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS.  This is a team that for some reason, probably because I like the dudes at Sippin' on Purple, I kept wanting to rank higher but then I slapped myself in the face and looked closer and was like gross.  After being right on the verge of that elusive first ever NCAA bid for a couple years, they took a step back last season (a Drew Crawford injury will do that) and finished 13-19 (4-14 in conference) and finally fired their coach.  Oh, what's that?  You didn't know Northwestern has a new basketball coach well you should since he's a former Dukie which means it's all anybody can talk about.

But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way.  I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff.  The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt.  Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point. 

11.  PURDUE BOILERMAKERS.  Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard.  That's pretty much all the positives.  Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good.  And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy.  Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.

I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately.  If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens).  Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here.  In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007.  Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball?  Yes.

Bottom.

12.  NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS.   I wrote about 11 teams, took my kids trick-r-treating, and boy am I tired.  Yet here is Nebraska staring me right in my stupid face.  I think we all believe that at some point Tim Miles will get Nebraska turned around and at least making them competitive.  This is not that year.

After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch.  Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them.  Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn?  Yeah, that didn't happen all that often.  This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand.  According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles.  So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year.  Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!