Guess what fuckers? I may be back. I may also not be back. I am unsure. However since I can't quite get in the mood to care about college basketball this year, maybe writing up some basic stuff will get me motivated again. Who knows. And what better way than to write a Big Ten Preview, using a magazine as my sole source of information? This should be terrible.
1. INDIANA HOOSIERS. Don't worry, there's no doubt Tom Crean will screw everything else and the Hoosiers will underachieve because that's just what he does, but I like the team in general. They have a super nice little big man/guard combo in James Blackmon and Thomas Bryant, and any time you have two players on the same team that make me think how sweet that team would be on NBA Jam you know I'm going to overrate them. Plus I think I read somewhere that this Anunoby guy is suppose to like, make a leap or something. If Crean didn't screw him all up already.
2. WISCONSIN BADGERS. Ugh. Gross. The entire team is back from last year to be boring and white, but they weren't terrible so I suppose they're probably the favorite to win the conference. At least Greg Gard doesn't seem nearly as loathsome as Bo Ryan was. Still pretty loathsome though. Just like that traitor Illlikainenen. I confess that I do like watching Nigel Hayes though. I actually kind of hope he finally has a three point shot figured out, because that would be fun to watch. I feel icky. 80% of this team is voting for Trump.
3. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. I actually already put down a long shot future wager on them to win the NCAA title at like 66-1, so I gotta stick with it. Yeah, it's probably a dumb bet but that's why it's a longshot. But here's the thing I like. Remember year after year after year, Thad Matta somehow manages to pull in one of the best classes in the country. Like every year. And the really good guys like D'Angelo Russell and DeShaun Thomas eventually leave early for the draft. But all those other guys stick around, and now they're sophomores and juniors and seniors. There's a whole group of pretty good players here. If one (or more!) can step up a bit and become an actually like, super good player this could end up a really good team. Or I'm a big fat idiot.
4. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Last year they had three big fat tall guys and things went alright. This year they have two big fat tall guys and that might even work out better since Caleb Swanigen and Isaac Haas (too many As!!) can ball. But they still don't have a backcourt and I don't think they have since Lewis Jackson, who couldn't shoot. But they have Spike Albrecht you say? I still don't get why this is/was a big deal because, spoiler alert, Albrecht sucks. He had one good half against Louisville on national tv and suddenly he's good? He's terrible. A benchwarmer who got hot, went back to warming benches, and then transferred since his coach knew he sucked. Now he's going to suck for a new team. What a huge story!
5. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. This is a weird team for Izzo. He has a killer recruiting class and he's going to need it since there's nothing else here. He has Tum Tum Nairn, who wouldn't shoot the ball if you paid him, and Eron Harris, who wouldn't stop shooting if you cut his arms off, and then like, a bunch of supposedly good freshman. I know putting them fifth is just me falling for the hype of POTENTIAL and UPSIDE, but every other team in this league freaking sucks. I'm serious. Every team after this one is just terrible.
6. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. You know who doesn't suck though? Melo Trimble. He's going to be on a bad team, but he's good enough to pull them up this high. I expect him to shoot approximately one zillion times this year. That is all I can write about Maryland because nobody knows anything else about any of these guys and if they say they do they're lying.
7. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Malcolm Hill also doesn't suck, and also will be in the player of the year hunt. The difference between he and Trimble is that Hill has a few players back that I'm familiar with. So why are they below Maryland? Because I'm tremendously inconsistent. Looking at this roster Tracy Abrams is probably already hurt again, I liked this Mike Thorne guy before he got hurt, and Maverick Morgan has always been a player who existed. They have Leron Black too, who I remember was supposed to be a stud but obviously that hasn't worked out too well at this point, but like Nickelback says "It's never too late."
8. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. They could be higher if they managed to not get anybody hurt, which seems unlikely. Caris LeVert basically missed his last two seasons here, and Gary Walton was hurt for what seemed like the entire year two seasons ago and I know this because I had him on my fantasy team. Zak Irvin hasn't missed as much time as those guys, but he's been absolutely atrocious and I remember reading it had to do with some injury. Look, I'm not saying Jon Beilein is intentionally hurting his players, but I'm not NOT saying it either.
9. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. This is far more optimistic than most predictions out there, but it's my blog so I can do whatever I want. Once you get down here most of these teams are terrible. Like really terrible, so it wouldn't be hard for one of them to jump up and get as high as 8 or 9 and why not the Gopehrs? They have more experience coming back then the majority of the teams below them, a better recruiting class, and a couple supposedly impact transfers. So there's upside. I think a lot of this season depends on Pitino's coaching. The first year he came here he did a lot of interesting things, particularly on offense, that were refreshing after watching Tubby's teams run nothing but flex over and over again. Then, for some reason, that died and I couldn't ascertain if they were running any set play at all on most of the possessions. That works when you have a loaded, athletic, smart team. Even though I like most of this team, they certainly aren't that. So let's run some plays! Have some fun! Finish ninth!
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I have no doubt one year soon Northwestern will finally break through and make the NCAA Tournament, but I'll believe when I see it. Every time they get close they blow it. And since they wear purple might as well make the ole Vikings comparison here. But there's no doubt they've risen above perennial bottom feeder status. The big recruiting splash guy Vic Law looked good his freshman year before missing last year with an injury and I assume he's back. They probably have a big doofy foreign big guy I can make fun of/fall in love with, and Bryant McIntosh is somehow a really, really good player. He's so punchable he probably should have gone to Duke, but he's really good.
11. IOWA HAWKEYES. If you were a reader of this blog, you may remember at once point I was going to do a thing where I kept track of the best chuckers in the country. That, and everything really, fell by the wayside, but I've always remember Peter Jok because he popped up on my list because he had a pretty insane usage rate for a bench player while not being a very good shooter. Well guess what? Everyone is gone from Iowa except for him. Now, last year he kept a pretty high shot rate but was actually an excellent shooter, but with nobody else out there to draw defensive attention I'm predicting he goes back to crappy. Crappy, but high volume. Buckle up.
12. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. The only thing I know about Penn State this year is that their best player is Shep Garner, and that makes me smile because his name is Shep. You know who else's name was Shep? The weirdo creepy security guard from Above the Rim who played basketball against air with no ball because he once accidentally killed his best friend. But how can you go against someone who can do this?
You can't! And he's in work clothes! Man, Penn State should really go get this guy.
13. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Rutgers was bad last year. Like really, really bad. Except of course when they spanked the Gophers, which was a really fun game to watch. They have a large chunk of the team back, which is one hand is good because in theory players get better from year to year, but on the other hand is bad because they were really, really bad last season. At least they're interesting. Interesting in that they are wildly inefficient and technically horrible and making baskets, but at the same time play at a really fast pace and put up a whole bunch of shots, while also playing zero defense and if they do manage to make the opponent miss they very rarely get the rebound! In other words, it's fun to watch other teams light them up. Not the Gophers, of course, but other teams.
14. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Thank god Petteway and Shields are gone and the Huskers can go back to sucking like they're supposed to. We didn't invite Nebraska to the Big Ten to be mildly competitive at basketball, we invited them to be good at football and fight to not be in last place in basketball every year. I was getting pretty sick of them not being completely dreadful and going after many of the same recruits the Gophers were. Now the natural order of things can be restored. Also pretty sick of Tim Miles at this point.
Well there you have it. My completely accurate and well researched predictions for the big ten this season. As far as this blog, I have no idea how often I'll be posting. Maybe after most games. Maybe never again. NOBODY KNOWS!
Showing posts with label Michigan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michigan. Show all posts
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Monday, January 12, 2015
Michigan 62, Minnesota 57
Well that sucked. Another game that looked eminently winnable, and another loss. 0-4 is not a good place to be, but luckily for me I had pretty much prepared myself for this. Yes, I got sucked in a bit and yes, I felt a bit of rage rising post game, but I beat that shit back like Link fighting Ganon. Sorry my kids are really into watching me play Zelda games these days. Anyway, I didn't expect a win, I kind of started to believe, but when the collapse happened I wasn't the least bit surprised and well, I pretty much was just waiting for it. Here are ten things I liked and didn't like about that Michigan game.
1. Back door cuts are killing this team. It happened against Ohio State, it happened against Purdue, and it probably happened against Maryland but I slept through most of that game. It happened again big time against Michigan. It doesn't seem to matter if it's man or zone defense, that back door cut is just killing this team. Against Michigan there was a play I actually rewound twice to see if there was a pick, but no, it was just Dre Hollins falling asleep and letting his man go back door. I don't want to single him out because this is a team wide issue (Carlos hi) but it's a constant problem.
2. Mo Walker has become so good he's getting hard doubled. Pretty much every time Walker got the ball on Saturday Michigan sent a second defender, and not in a semi double way in a hard double way. Walkter had no choice but to pass, basically (which killed my Walker over 13.5 points bet) and it made sense because Michigan doesn't have the personnel to guard him one one hone (which is why I made the bet). He did a good job handling it and found open teammates enough times where it should have helped, but a staggering majority of those times whoever received the pass wasn't ready to shoot. Could have made a lot of difference.
3. I have never seen a team throw the ball directly out of bounds as much as this team. The Gophers turned it over 17 times in the game, and I swear at least 8 of them were balls just thrown directly out of bounds. Michigan is a decent team at causing turnovers, but this was just out of control. I gamble kind of a lot (but always within my means!) and a rule I try to follow is never bet on a dumb team. Baylor, LSU, and any team coached by Bruce Weber usually fall into this. The Gophers are trending in this direction.
4. Carlos Morris could end up being really good. Morris is on a really good run. Outside of the Maryland game (which I slept through) he's managed to take his chucker tendencies and turn them into scorer tendencies (this difference is not missing as much). He can hit the outside shot, he loves to drive to the rim, and against Michigan he showed off a very nice post game on a possession which had me like whoa (he did a very nice fake into an up and under which I didn't know he had in him). Morris can score, and there was little doubt of this from day 1, but he's started doing it in a a way that fits the offense. Next year, when he's the clear #1 option (and he will be) he could seriously end up with a spot on an all Big 10 team. For real.
5. That being said, Morris's jump pass is killing me. One thing you can say about Morris is the boy is confident. When he gets the ball and decides it's scoring time he's going to go to the rim and I am fully in favor of it. The problems is, besides the sometimes really bad shots, is that if he doesn't have a shot he'll jump and look to pass. If someone is open he great, good play dude. But when there's no one around he's suddenly finding himself in the air with nowhere to go. It's not good. Or, at best, rarely good.
6. Derrick Walton's jumper is beautiful. Is it Ray Allen beautiful? Of course not, don't be ridiculous, but it's a good looking shot. I know the stats say the long two is the worst shot in basketball and I don't dispute that, but there are some guys who can just hit it enough to make it worthwhile. Walton looks like he's going to be one of those guys. I wish there was a way to get stock on a guy in a way that actually made money, because I'm telling you right now Walton is going to be an absolute superstar by the time he's out of Ann Arbor. You heard it hear first.
7. The Gophers got killed on the boards. I know the final numbers show Minnesota winning the rebound battle, but man they got smoked on so many by a team that's basically running a four guard lineup. Michigan doesn't crash the o-boards, but the got 31% of their own misses against a season average of 26% (including the Minnesota game). There were just too many times a Michigan missed shot resulted in the Wolverines keeping the ball, which is a killer against a team that thrives in transition. On a list of ways to lose the game, giving up offensive boards should have been near the top. The Wolverines only shot 22% from three, which should have been a big part of a Gopher win, but giving up second chances negated that.
8. Michigan does a great job of taking away passing lanes. They did this in both man-to-man and that 1-3-1, but the whoever is on top for Michigan does a great job of making the offense reset. They don't necessarily try to steal the ball, but whenever a Gopher guard on the wing was trying to pass back to the point the Michigan defender was always in the way, making the pass go much further towards half court than the Gophers would like and effectively making them start the offense over. When Michigan switched to the 1-3-1 it was even more pronounced, and unfortunately no Gopher other than Nate Mason understood you need to attack the gaps rather than just work it around the perimeter. Really, Mason impressed me with his understanding of what needed to be done, but he was the only one.
9. Elliott Eliason is broken. There as a play as the game wound down where somebody (and I wish I had the game recorded right now to rewatch this) left the ball off for him and it should have been a one dribble and dunk situation. Instead it resulted in something else bad which I don't remember because he was just so hesitant. I know he's not a good offensive player, and that's just who he is, but at point Elliott seemed to realize that he could score in the right situation and was seeming to develop into a competent player. I have no idea what happened to the man, but he's become nothing more than a back-up center who can grab some rebounds sometime. The difference between who he was early last season and who he is now is staggering, and it's impossible to not wonder what happened with the coaching here. And yes, this is my first questioning of Pitino and staff I think. It happens.
10. I remember talking with someone and saying the Gopher might have the best back court in the conference. They sure aren't playing like it. Dre Hollins is basically playing the same as last year statswise, and he's shooting well but he has seemed to resign himself to being a jump shooter and isn't driving anymore (though you'll notice when the team is playing well it's when he's driving more) and Dre Matheiu is turning into a guy who won't shoot, even though he's a good shooter and who can't take care of the ball. Both are scoring less than last season, and both have disappeared at times. Despite a hot first half Hollins is still shooting like hell at just 10-46 (7-29 from three) in conference play and he's at 7 assists and 7 turnovers in those games. Mathieu might even have been worse - he's totaled 17 turnovers in B10 games against just 8 assists. I think everyone knew that these two were the key to the Gophers' season, and it's turning out that way. If things are going to get turned around, it has to happen here.
11. Extending this to eleven just because I have to mention Joey King Oof. Didn't shoot well, didn't rebound, and turned the ball over like it was his job. One key play towards the end of the game he dove for a ball on the ground and gained possession (good!), had enough wits about him to not call timeout since the Gophers were out (smart!), and, despite multiple teammates around him, was unable to get the ball to one of them, leading to Michigan possession (bad!). It was a huge play at that stage of the game. I know King is just crazy inconsistent and he's never going to be anything resembling a competent ball handler, but he's been brutal. Do you realize he has had more than one rebound in just one of the last five games? He's 6-9 for christ's sake. Ridiculous.
0-4 is a pretty major hole to dig your way out of, but it can be done. Kenpom still projected the Gophers to finish the conference season at 8-10, and if they could basically do that but steal just one game they aren't supposed to win (without the corresponding bad loss) that's 9-9 and in the ballpark for an NCAA bid. They'll probably need to go 10-8 to feel good, which means a whole lot of winning and it starts Tuesday night against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been solid this year (11-5) without a single bad loss (Texas, Syracuse, Michigan State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa) and two outstanding road wins (North Carolina, Ohio State). Yes, they won both at Columbus and Chapel Hill, so I don't think they're going to automatically wilt because it's Williams Arena. The Gophers will have to play well. The Hawkeyes like to play fast, so this should be a fun game at least.
Minnesota 80, Iowa 77.
1. Back door cuts are killing this team. It happened against Ohio State, it happened against Purdue, and it probably happened against Maryland but I slept through most of that game. It happened again big time against Michigan. It doesn't seem to matter if it's man or zone defense, that back door cut is just killing this team. Against Michigan there was a play I actually rewound twice to see if there was a pick, but no, it was just Dre Hollins falling asleep and letting his man go back door. I don't want to single him out because this is a team wide issue (Carlos hi) but it's a constant problem.
2. Mo Walker has become so good he's getting hard doubled. Pretty much every time Walker got the ball on Saturday Michigan sent a second defender, and not in a semi double way in a hard double way. Walkter had no choice but to pass, basically (which killed my Walker over 13.5 points bet) and it made sense because Michigan doesn't have the personnel to guard him one one hone (which is why I made the bet). He did a good job handling it and found open teammates enough times where it should have helped, but a staggering majority of those times whoever received the pass wasn't ready to shoot. Could have made a lot of difference.
3. I have never seen a team throw the ball directly out of bounds as much as this team. The Gophers turned it over 17 times in the game, and I swear at least 8 of them were balls just thrown directly out of bounds. Michigan is a decent team at causing turnovers, but this was just out of control. I gamble kind of a lot (but always within my means!) and a rule I try to follow is never bet on a dumb team. Baylor, LSU, and any team coached by Bruce Weber usually fall into this. The Gophers are trending in this direction.
4. Carlos Morris could end up being really good. Morris is on a really good run. Outside of the Maryland game (which I slept through) he's managed to take his chucker tendencies and turn them into scorer tendencies (this difference is not missing as much). He can hit the outside shot, he loves to drive to the rim, and against Michigan he showed off a very nice post game on a possession which had me like whoa (he did a very nice fake into an up and under which I didn't know he had in him). Morris can score, and there was little doubt of this from day 1, but he's started doing it in a a way that fits the offense. Next year, when he's the clear #1 option (and he will be) he could seriously end up with a spot on an all Big 10 team. For real.
5. That being said, Morris's jump pass is killing me. One thing you can say about Morris is the boy is confident. When he gets the ball and decides it's scoring time he's going to go to the rim and I am fully in favor of it. The problems is, besides the sometimes really bad shots, is that if he doesn't have a shot he'll jump and look to pass. If someone is open he great, good play dude. But when there's no one around he's suddenly finding himself in the air with nowhere to go. It's not good. Or, at best, rarely good.
6. Derrick Walton's jumper is beautiful. Is it Ray Allen beautiful? Of course not, don't be ridiculous, but it's a good looking shot. I know the stats say the long two is the worst shot in basketball and I don't dispute that, but there are some guys who can just hit it enough to make it worthwhile. Walton looks like he's going to be one of those guys. I wish there was a way to get stock on a guy in a way that actually made money, because I'm telling you right now Walton is going to be an absolute superstar by the time he's out of Ann Arbor. You heard it hear first.
7. The Gophers got killed on the boards. I know the final numbers show Minnesota winning the rebound battle, but man they got smoked on so many by a team that's basically running a four guard lineup. Michigan doesn't crash the o-boards, but the got 31% of their own misses against a season average of 26% (including the Minnesota game). There were just too many times a Michigan missed shot resulted in the Wolverines keeping the ball, which is a killer against a team that thrives in transition. On a list of ways to lose the game, giving up offensive boards should have been near the top. The Wolverines only shot 22% from three, which should have been a big part of a Gopher win, but giving up second chances negated that.
8. Michigan does a great job of taking away passing lanes. They did this in both man-to-man and that 1-3-1, but the whoever is on top for Michigan does a great job of making the offense reset. They don't necessarily try to steal the ball, but whenever a Gopher guard on the wing was trying to pass back to the point the Michigan defender was always in the way, making the pass go much further towards half court than the Gophers would like and effectively making them start the offense over. When Michigan switched to the 1-3-1 it was even more pronounced, and unfortunately no Gopher other than Nate Mason understood you need to attack the gaps rather than just work it around the perimeter. Really, Mason impressed me with his understanding of what needed to be done, but he was the only one.
9. Elliott Eliason is broken. There as a play as the game wound down where somebody (and I wish I had the game recorded right now to rewatch this) left the ball off for him and it should have been a one dribble and dunk situation. Instead it resulted in something else bad which I don't remember because he was just so hesitant. I know he's not a good offensive player, and that's just who he is, but at point Elliott seemed to realize that he could score in the right situation and was seeming to develop into a competent player. I have no idea what happened to the man, but he's become nothing more than a back-up center who can grab some rebounds sometime. The difference between who he was early last season and who he is now is staggering, and it's impossible to not wonder what happened with the coaching here. And yes, this is my first questioning of Pitino and staff I think. It happens.
10. I remember talking with someone and saying the Gopher might have the best back court in the conference. They sure aren't playing like it. Dre Hollins is basically playing the same as last year statswise, and he's shooting well but he has seemed to resign himself to being a jump shooter and isn't driving anymore (though you'll notice when the team is playing well it's when he's driving more) and Dre Matheiu is turning into a guy who won't shoot, even though he's a good shooter and who can't take care of the ball. Both are scoring less than last season, and both have disappeared at times. Despite a hot first half Hollins is still shooting like hell at just 10-46 (7-29 from three) in conference play and he's at 7 assists and 7 turnovers in those games. Mathieu might even have been worse - he's totaled 17 turnovers in B10 games against just 8 assists. I think everyone knew that these two were the key to the Gophers' season, and it's turning out that way. If things are going to get turned around, it has to happen here.
11. Extending this to eleven just because I have to mention Joey King Oof. Didn't shoot well, didn't rebound, and turned the ball over like it was his job. One key play towards the end of the game he dove for a ball on the ground and gained possession (good!), had enough wits about him to not call timeout since the Gophers were out (smart!), and, despite multiple teammates around him, was unable to get the ball to one of them, leading to Michigan possession (bad!). It was a huge play at that stage of the game. I know King is just crazy inconsistent and he's never going to be anything resembling a competent ball handler, but he's been brutal. Do you realize he has had more than one rebound in just one of the last five games? He's 6-9 for christ's sake. Ridiculous.
0-4 is a pretty major hole to dig your way out of, but it can be done. Kenpom still projected the Gophers to finish the conference season at 8-10, and if they could basically do that but steal just one game they aren't supposed to win (without the corresponding bad loss) that's 9-9 and in the ballpark for an NCAA bid. They'll probably need to go 10-8 to feel good, which means a whole lot of winning and it starts Tuesday night against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been solid this year (11-5) without a single bad loss (Texas, Syracuse, Michigan State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa) and two outstanding road wins (North Carolina, Ohio State). Yes, they won both at Columbus and Chapel Hill, so I don't think they're going to automatically wilt because it's Williams Arena. The Gophers will have to play well. The Hawkeyes like to play fast, so this should be a fun game at least.
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Michigan
This probably seems like a weird time to come back. The Gophers are now 0-3 on the Big Ten Season and at this point the only decent wins they can point to are an almost blown win against an ok Georgia team and a win at Wake Forest that we still aren't sure if it's a decent win or a throwaway win. The team's best player is pretty much in the tank and may or may not be still or newly hurt and the team depth seems to be getting shallower by the minute. A gritty effort was proven to not be enough, and the team continued the tradition of screwing up end of game possessions, dropping a heart breaker that would have been enough to restore some optimism to the fan base. It's not a wonderful time to be a fan.
But you know what? Kind of it is. The loss to Purdue basically told me everything I needed to know about what kind of team and year this was going to be (and this isn't hindsight, I said so in the preview) so, after a mini-breakdown or tantrum or hiatus or whatever term you prefer, I returned to watch the game against Ohio State with zero expectations, other than expecting the Buckeyes to win. With lowered expectations comes lower stress levels and in a strange way more of an enjoyable viewing experience. So after the Buckeye loss instead of being angry about another missed opportunity, I was pleased they hung in there and more of an "aw shucks would have been nice to get that one." That's not being happy with a moral victory, it's simply accepting reality. There was almost no way they were going to win that game - Ohio State is about 50 times better than they are - and it would take something miraculous to make the NCAA Tournament. Once you accept that, it makes this year much easier to swallow.
So with that out of the way, let's move on to Saturday's game at Michigan. The Wolverines have had some much celebrated issues this year - the losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan - and, well, we still don't really know what's up with Michigan this year. They started strong with wins over decent Syracuse and Oregon and hung tight with Villanova and everything looked like they'd be ok. Then came those two horrible losses followed by an absolute drubbing by Arizona. Since then they've won an overtime home game against Illinois, lost at Purdue, and lost at Penn State. So who really knows what's up with this team? I lean towards lower middle tier Big Ten team with very little shot at teh NCAA Tournament, so this should be a pretty even match up.
The bad news is the Wolverines really take care of the ball, and in particular they rarely have it stolen away - the Gophers #1 move. The good news is they aren't particularly good at anything else. This isn't one of the great shooting teams of the past few years, although they sure do like to chuck the three. Of all Wolverine 3-point attempts so far this year, 43.5% of them have been three pointers, and the team makes 35.9% which is a good, but not great number. Guards Caris LeVert (39%) and Derrick Walton (29%) and wing Zak Irvin (35%) all have over 50 3-point attempts already on the year, and all are capable of putting up either a 5-7 or 1-7 performance. They rely on those three heavily, and all play 33-35 minutes per game, scoring about 60% of the team's points. Getting the three to put the ball on the floor and take contested 2-pointers would be an excellent strategy, rather than letting them find open threes. Anyone helping on a driver off a perimeter shooter should be benched immediately (that includes Spike Albrecht, who doesn't have the volume but hits 40% and needs an open shot to score).
After those four nobody else plays more than 19 minutes per game and you may have noticed those four are all perimeter players so you may be asking "does this mean Michigan is weak inside" and the answer is a resounding yes. The only size on the team comes from three freshmen - 6-7 Kam Chatman, 6-9 Mark Donnal, and 6-9 Ricky Doyle and although the three have been better than I expected (combined 50 minutes, 16 points, 9 rebounds per game) they still aren't much of an inside presence. They don't block any shots (Michigan is 335th in the country in block rate) or grab any offensive rebounds (322nd), though they do protect the defensive glass well overall (40th). Mo Walker should (SHOULD!) be in line for a pretty big game.
All-in-all to me it looks like a pretty even matchup, and that includes the Wolverines' home court advantage. The Gophers should be able to feast inside, while Michigan will have plenty of chances to hit outside shots. I think if the Gophers let the pressure of being 0-3 get to them, they'll do stupid things and miss open shots. If they're relaxed and playing ball, they'll win. This one's on Pitino.
And I still believe.
Minnesota 69, Michigan 66
But you know what? Kind of it is. The loss to Purdue basically told me everything I needed to know about what kind of team and year this was going to be (and this isn't hindsight, I said so in the preview) so, after a mini-breakdown or tantrum or hiatus or whatever term you prefer, I returned to watch the game against Ohio State with zero expectations, other than expecting the Buckeyes to win. With lowered expectations comes lower stress levels and in a strange way more of an enjoyable viewing experience. So after the Buckeye loss instead of being angry about another missed opportunity, I was pleased they hung in there and more of an "aw shucks would have been nice to get that one." That's not being happy with a moral victory, it's simply accepting reality. There was almost no way they were going to win that game - Ohio State is about 50 times better than they are - and it would take something miraculous to make the NCAA Tournament. Once you accept that, it makes this year much easier to swallow.
So with that out of the way, let's move on to Saturday's game at Michigan. The Wolverines have had some much celebrated issues this year - the losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan - and, well, we still don't really know what's up with Michigan this year. They started strong with wins over decent Syracuse and Oregon and hung tight with Villanova and everything looked like they'd be ok. Then came those two horrible losses followed by an absolute drubbing by Arizona. Since then they've won an overtime home game against Illinois, lost at Purdue, and lost at Penn State. So who really knows what's up with this team? I lean towards lower middle tier Big Ten team with very little shot at teh NCAA Tournament, so this should be a pretty even match up.
The bad news is the Wolverines really take care of the ball, and in particular they rarely have it stolen away - the Gophers #1 move. The good news is they aren't particularly good at anything else. This isn't one of the great shooting teams of the past few years, although they sure do like to chuck the three. Of all Wolverine 3-point attempts so far this year, 43.5% of them have been three pointers, and the team makes 35.9% which is a good, but not great number. Guards Caris LeVert (39%) and Derrick Walton (29%) and wing Zak Irvin (35%) all have over 50 3-point attempts already on the year, and all are capable of putting up either a 5-7 or 1-7 performance. They rely on those three heavily, and all play 33-35 minutes per game, scoring about 60% of the team's points. Getting the three to put the ball on the floor and take contested 2-pointers would be an excellent strategy, rather than letting them find open threes. Anyone helping on a driver off a perimeter shooter should be benched immediately (that includes Spike Albrecht, who doesn't have the volume but hits 40% and needs an open shot to score).
After those four nobody else plays more than 19 minutes per game and you may have noticed those four are all perimeter players so you may be asking "does this mean Michigan is weak inside" and the answer is a resounding yes. The only size on the team comes from three freshmen - 6-7 Kam Chatman, 6-9 Mark Donnal, and 6-9 Ricky Doyle and although the three have been better than I expected (combined 50 minutes, 16 points, 9 rebounds per game) they still aren't much of an inside presence. They don't block any shots (Michigan is 335th in the country in block rate) or grab any offensive rebounds (322nd), though they do protect the defensive glass well overall (40th). Mo Walker should (SHOULD!) be in line for a pretty big game.
All-in-all to me it looks like a pretty even matchup, and that includes the Wolverines' home court advantage. The Gophers should be able to feast inside, while Michigan will have plenty of chances to hit outside shots. I think if the Gophers let the pressure of being 0-3 get to them, they'll do stupid things and miss open shots. If they're relaxed and playing ball, they'll win. This one's on Pitino.
And I still believe.
Minnesota 69, Michigan 66
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #6 Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is, without question, the most difficult team to rank this year. Losing Nik Stauskas, Glen Robinson III, and Mitch McGary (kind of) to the NBA is a lot to recover from. Of course, the year prior they lost Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway to the NBA and were on the cusp of a second straight final four last season. Michigan might have the horses to step up and replace the departed NBAers, but replacing a couple other, less heralded losses might end up the more difficult task.
Caris LeVert leads the returnees at 12.9 points per game last season, a whopping leap from 2.3 ppg the year before after his playing time more than tripled filling in for the departed Hardaway. LeVert got better in pretty much every way you could think of last season, which doesn't always happen with increased usage, which bodes well for his future improvement. He's not the shooter Stauskas was, but then again who is, and he's effective from deep without being reliant on it and he already has Stauskas's ability to get to the rim. There is a definite void where someone could step in to replace Stauskas's production and LeVert is candidate number 1.
Two other key returnees were highly regarded and productive freshmen last year in Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton Jr. Walton's the point guard who did a nice job keeping the offense flowing (7.9 points/2.9 assists per game) and shot the ball well when called upon. It'll be interesting to see if he can stay as efficient as he was last year when the offense will rely on him more this year. Irvin looked smooth and polished already and had games where his shot was unstoppable, but as most young players who are almost completely dependent on the 3-pointer he also had completely awful games. If he pulled a Stauskas and added to his offensive skill set that'll go a long way towards making this team a threat again.
Now that we've discussed the obvious ways Michigan can patch their holes, now we need to look at what could be they're undoing: the losses of Jordan Morgan (graduation) and Jon Horford (transfer). They only combined for 10.2 points per game last year, but they also combined for 9.2 rebounds and 33.9 minutes. Even worse, there is nobody returning with any paint experience. The most experience returnee among paint type guys is 6-7 junior Max Bielfeldt, who has played a grant total of 195 minutes in his two years at Ann Arbor. And no, there is no convenient grad transfer who can step right in and help immediately, which is pretty surprising actually.
Which means an awful lot rides on some pretty talented freshmen. Irvin's 6-7 so he can probably play some PF in a pinch, but they'll need major contributions from at least 2 of 6-7 Kameron Chatman, 6-9 D.J. Wilson, 6-9 Ricky Doyle, and 6-9 Mark Donnal. Chatman is the jewel, ranking as a top 30 national recruit. He's more of a small forward than power forward as is Wilson, but at this point it's not like the Wolverines have a lot of options. The true PF/C types are Doyle and Donnal. Doyle is a top 200 type recruit who had an impressive offer sheet. He also comes from a basketball family so theoretically should have a high basketball IQ, which will definitely help him make an impact right away next season. Donnal is a red-shirt freshman who was a top 100 guy last year. It sounds like he already has a pretty solid offensive game with the ability to score inside or out, and if he can give them solid defense it would go a long way towards solving their paint problem.
Plenty of questions for the Wolverines, and not a completely dissimilar situation to Indiana with the lack of any real obvious options inside. I ranked the the Hoosiers 10th but the Wolverines 6th. Partially because Michigan has more coming back, but also because I think Beliein has a good thing going and will be able to mix and match well enough to have the Wolverines back in the NCAA Tournament, while Tom Crean couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag.
OTHER PREVIEWS
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Caris LeVert leads the returnees at 12.9 points per game last season, a whopping leap from 2.3 ppg the year before after his playing time more than tripled filling in for the departed Hardaway. LeVert got better in pretty much every way you could think of last season, which doesn't always happen with increased usage, which bodes well for his future improvement. He's not the shooter Stauskas was, but then again who is, and he's effective from deep without being reliant on it and he already has Stauskas's ability to get to the rim. There is a definite void where someone could step in to replace Stauskas's production and LeVert is candidate number 1.
Two other key returnees were highly regarded and productive freshmen last year in Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton Jr. Walton's the point guard who did a nice job keeping the offense flowing (7.9 points/2.9 assists per game) and shot the ball well when called upon. It'll be interesting to see if he can stay as efficient as he was last year when the offense will rely on him more this year. Irvin looked smooth and polished already and had games where his shot was unstoppable, but as most young players who are almost completely dependent on the 3-pointer he also had completely awful games. If he pulled a Stauskas and added to his offensive skill set that'll go a long way towards making this team a threat again.
Now that we've discussed the obvious ways Michigan can patch their holes, now we need to look at what could be they're undoing: the losses of Jordan Morgan (graduation) and Jon Horford (transfer). They only combined for 10.2 points per game last year, but they also combined for 9.2 rebounds and 33.9 minutes. Even worse, there is nobody returning with any paint experience. The most experience returnee among paint type guys is 6-7 junior Max Bielfeldt, who has played a grant total of 195 minutes in his two years at Ann Arbor. And no, there is no convenient grad transfer who can step right in and help immediately, which is pretty surprising actually.
Which means an awful lot rides on some pretty talented freshmen. Irvin's 6-7 so he can probably play some PF in a pinch, but they'll need major contributions from at least 2 of 6-7 Kameron Chatman, 6-9 D.J. Wilson, 6-9 Ricky Doyle, and 6-9 Mark Donnal. Chatman is the jewel, ranking as a top 30 national recruit. He's more of a small forward than power forward as is Wilson, but at this point it's not like the Wolverines have a lot of options. The true PF/C types are Doyle and Donnal. Doyle is a top 200 type recruit who had an impressive offer sheet. He also comes from a basketball family so theoretically should have a high basketball IQ, which will definitely help him make an impact right away next season. Donnal is a red-shirt freshman who was a top 100 guy last year. It sounds like he already has a pretty solid offensive game with the ability to score inside or out, and if he can give them solid defense it would go a long way towards solving their paint problem.
Plenty of questions for the Wolverines, and not a completely dissimilar situation to Indiana with the lack of any real obvious options inside. I ranked the the Hoosiers 10th but the Wolverines 6th. Partially because Michigan has more coming back, but also because I think Beliein has a good thing going and will be able to mix and match well enough to have the Wolverines back in the NCAA Tournament, while Tom Crean couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag.
OTHER PREVIEWS
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Friday, March 28, 2014
Sweet Sixteen Predictions (Friday)
Well I couldn't have read that Wisconsin/Baylor game any worse. I expected Frank Kaminsky to get killed, but instead he did the killing. It was like watching The Others and being like, man this is way creepy poor Nicole Kidman but then bam it turns out Nicole Kidman is dead the whole time. Oh, spoiler alert. Anyway thanks to Florida coming through, a couple over/unders, and hitting two middles with second half bets I overcame the big Baylor loss and made a little bit of money. Hopefully there's more to come tonight.
#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee. They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession. The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. That's a pretty damn impressive group. However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams. The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win? That win over a fading Iowa team. Next up? A win over a fading and overseeded UMass. Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas. See what I'm saying? Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.
Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time. They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking. Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense. From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's. I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units
#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN. Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team. It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size. That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.
Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now. He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half. And man did you see some of those shots against Nova? Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against. DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova. It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four. Sorry Clones. UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.
#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next. So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?
Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end. With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team. Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did. Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time. Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139. Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.
#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run. They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5. They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.
The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th). I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia. Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are. The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them. One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.
#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee. They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession. The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. That's a pretty damn impressive group. However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams. The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win? That win over a fading Iowa team. Next up? A win over a fading and overseeded UMass. Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas. See what I'm saying? Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.
Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time. They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking. Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense. From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's. I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units
#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN. Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team. It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size. That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.
Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now. He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half. And man did you see some of those shots against Nova? Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against. DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova. It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four. Sorry Clones. UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.
#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next. So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?
Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end. With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team. Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did. Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time. Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139. Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.
#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run. They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5. They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.
The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th). I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia. Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are. The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them. One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Gophers lose to Michigan in the same way they always do
Story of the year for the Gophers, right? Play a much better, more talented team extremely close for a portion of the game and come up short. Yeah, I suppose the other stories of the year are beating a few good teams at Williams and also losing to some teams that they should beat, but this Michigan game from the tip seemed like a narrative of the year to the point where I could have written the game story before they even tipped off.
Rather than go into a whole thing where I could once again point out defensive lapses, stupid turnovers, and a seemingly pathological inability to get a loose ball, let's step back and see where the Gophers stand right now in the big picture, and try to figure out what they need to do to get a NCAA tournament bid because at this point they are basically the poster child for a bubble team.
And by the way, if I was going to write about the Michigan, and I'm not, I would definitely point out that when a defense constantly doubles the ball handler on ball screens it's pretty important for the offense to exploit that because, fun fact, if two guys are guarding one guy that means three guys are guarding four guys and if an offense has proper spacing and the ball handler has good enough anticipation and vision and the other offensive players can move the ball quickly there should be a lot of open shots. With an exception or two the Gopher offense was rarely able to take advantage of this situation, which came up a lot, and that could have made a big difference in the game. But again, I'm not going to talk about that instead let's look at some stuff.
The Gophers are now 17-12 and 7-10 in conference play, neither of which is very impressive. The RPI is 47 and the Strength of Schedule is 3, and those numbers are pretty good combined. All of which means the Gophers are squarely on the middle of the bubble, which feels way to god damn familiar. The Gophers have 2 wins over the RPI top 25 and 6 over the top 100 with no really truly bad losses, as horrific as the Illinois and Northwestern home losses feel. Basically this can still go either way. I see four distinct ways this breaks:
1) Gophers beat Penn State, lose early in the tournament (defined as first round game).
2) Gophers beat Penn State, go on a run in the tournament (defined as 2 or more wins).
3) Gophers lose to Penn State, lose early in the tournament.
4) Gophers lose to Penn State, go on a run in the tournament.
#3 isn't worth talking about because they have no shot at getting a bid in this scenario. #2 I will pass on as well because I think a three game winning streak to close it out, which would include a win over somebody good like Wisconsin, and they're comfortably in. The other two scenarios are where things get icky.
Let's say the Gophers beat Penn State, draw Illinois in the first round of the B10 tournament, and then lose to Ohio State. Is that enough? 8-10 in a very good league with an PRI likely in the low 40s? IF they had done anything at all on the road or on a neutral court this year I'd say this would probably be safe, but the committee won't look favorably on that road//neutral column. This probably makes for a really uncomfortable Selection Sunday.
How about if the Gophers lose at home against Penn State to drop to 7-11 in the Conference, but then beat Illinois and Wisconsin in the tournament? Will that be enough? Adding a quality win on a neutral court to the ledger can only help, but I feel like that loss to PSU in this scenario and the horrendous 7-11 conference record would keep them out. In this scenario I think they'd have to win the next game too against like, Michigan. Possible, but unlikely.
Three ways I see the Gophers have a shot:
1. Beat Penn State, win 2 games in the B10 Tournament. In this scenario I say they're 90% in. Probably a 9-10ish seed.
2. Beat Penn State, win 1 game in the B10 Tournament. This I would call 50/50 and would be pretty heavily dependent on how some of the conference tournaments break. Go Wichita. Probably a 12ish seed if they get in this situation.
3. Lose to Penn State, win 3 games in the B10 Tournament. This I would say is also 50/50 to get a bid. The lost to the Nittany Lions would be a pretty bad black mark, but winning three tournament games would net the Gophers two more high quality wins. In this case, even though I think it would be 50/50, if they did get in I'd guess they'd be around a 10 seed. I think the committee will either focus on the number of good wins and they'll be comfortably in, or focus on the horrible conference record and keep them way the hell out.
So I guess I'm counting on 3 straight wins to close out the season. I'm super optimistic.
Rather than go into a whole thing where I could once again point out defensive lapses, stupid turnovers, and a seemingly pathological inability to get a loose ball, let's step back and see where the Gophers stand right now in the big picture, and try to figure out what they need to do to get a NCAA tournament bid because at this point they are basically the poster child for a bubble team.
And by the way, if I was going to write about the Michigan, and I'm not, I would definitely point out that when a defense constantly doubles the ball handler on ball screens it's pretty important for the offense to exploit that because, fun fact, if two guys are guarding one guy that means three guys are guarding four guys and if an offense has proper spacing and the ball handler has good enough anticipation and vision and the other offensive players can move the ball quickly there should be a lot of open shots. With an exception or two the Gopher offense was rarely able to take advantage of this situation, which came up a lot, and that could have made a big difference in the game. But again, I'm not going to talk about that instead let's look at some stuff.
The Gophers are now 17-12 and 7-10 in conference play, neither of which is very impressive. The RPI is 47 and the Strength of Schedule is 3, and those numbers are pretty good combined. All of which means the Gophers are squarely on the middle of the bubble, which feels way to god damn familiar. The Gophers have 2 wins over the RPI top 25 and 6 over the top 100 with no really truly bad losses, as horrific as the Illinois and Northwestern home losses feel. Basically this can still go either way. I see four distinct ways this breaks:
1) Gophers beat Penn State, lose early in the tournament (defined as first round game).
2) Gophers beat Penn State, go on a run in the tournament (defined as 2 or more wins).
3) Gophers lose to Penn State, lose early in the tournament.
4) Gophers lose to Penn State, go on a run in the tournament.
#3 isn't worth talking about because they have no shot at getting a bid in this scenario. #2 I will pass on as well because I think a three game winning streak to close it out, which would include a win over somebody good like Wisconsin, and they're comfortably in. The other two scenarios are where things get icky.
Let's say the Gophers beat Penn State, draw Illinois in the first round of the B10 tournament, and then lose to Ohio State. Is that enough? 8-10 in a very good league with an PRI likely in the low 40s? IF they had done anything at all on the road or on a neutral court this year I'd say this would probably be safe, but the committee won't look favorably on that road//neutral column. This probably makes for a really uncomfortable Selection Sunday.
How about if the Gophers lose at home against Penn State to drop to 7-11 in the Conference, but then beat Illinois and Wisconsin in the tournament? Will that be enough? Adding a quality win on a neutral court to the ledger can only help, but I feel like that loss to PSU in this scenario and the horrendous 7-11 conference record would keep them out. In this scenario I think they'd have to win the next game too against like, Michigan. Possible, but unlikely.
Three ways I see the Gophers have a shot:
1. Beat Penn State, win 2 games in the B10 Tournament. In this scenario I say they're 90% in. Probably a 9-10ish seed.
2. Beat Penn State, win 1 game in the B10 Tournament. This I would call 50/50 and would be pretty heavily dependent on how some of the conference tournaments break. Go Wichita. Probably a 12ish seed if they get in this situation.
3. Lose to Penn State, win 3 games in the B10 Tournament. This I would say is also 50/50 to get a bid. The lost to the Nittany Lions would be a pretty bad black mark, but winning three tournament games would net the Gophers two more high quality wins. In this case, even though I think it would be 50/50, if they did get in I'd guess they'd be around a 10 seed. I think the committee will either focus on the number of good wins and they'll be comfortably in, or focus on the horrible conference record and keep them way the hell out.
So I guess I'm counting on 3 straight wins to close out the season. I'm super optimistic.
Friday, January 3, 2014
Michigan 63, Gophers 60
Dammit.
Fun game to watch, but not a fun outcome. That was an incredibly winnable game, and they just couldn't get it. A home loss to Michigan isn't a season killer by any stretch, but no being able to win a home game against a team on a similar tier (I thought) whose best player is out with an injury and also loses their second best player in the second half is not a good sign for the rest of the year. An NCAA bid just got that much more unlikely.
In a blatantly stolen format from the great Zach Lowe at Grantland, here are 10 things I liked and didn't like from last night. And yes I'm planning on using this format to recap every game unless I get bored or forget.
1. Fundamental Defense. The Gophers elected to mainly eschew the zone in favor of man-to-man against Michigan, which is something I said would probably be necessary for a win right here on this very blog, so I liked that. They also elected to get way out in passing lanes in order to try to force more turnovers, and it worked for a stretch, but it also over extended the defense and since Michigan and Beilein traditionally use a lot of Princeton offense principles when they have the ball, there were a lot of back cuts. More to the point, there were a lot of back cuts that led to open shots. If you're going to deny all passes you have to be near perfect in not losing your man or have help defense always in position. Neither happened against Michigan.
2. Offensive Creativity. One of the reasons the game was so fun to watch, beyond the Gophers pushing the ball at every opportunity, was Pitino doing a lot of cool things in the half court. One play I really liked was where they set two consecutive picks off the ball for Austin Hollins to do a curl cut out at the wing heading towards the free throw line. If he has shot or a driving lane, go with it obviously, but after Hollins comes through the second picker screens down on the first picker who pops out for an open three. The other really slick play was the one to get Malik Smith the open three near the end of the game (for some reason the btn2go replay feed ends at the 4 minute mark so I'm describing this one by memory). Mathieu sprints down court with the ball and heads to the right wing in what looks like your typical dribble hand off play, but instead of handing it off he keeps the ball and drives baseline, throwing the defense off. At the same time, Malik Smith heads towards the opposite corner (I don't know if there was a pick for him or not, but I suspect there was a back pick involved) for an open three. Cool play. So much interesting stuff going on at that end, I'm going to have to start recording the games and watching them a second time just to catch it all. Maybe.
3. Ball Screen Defense. I did not understand the defensive scheme last night. I've already said that I believed last night man-to-man was the way to go, but they way the Gophers defended ball screens really had me baffled. They chased the ball handler over the top of every screen, which is what you would do if you feared a three point shot coming right off the pick, but the big men never hedged out which created driving lanes for the dribbler (this is what Michigan did all night, bracket the ball handler with both the man guarding him and the man guarding the screener are night and it worked well to contain the Hollinseses). This penetration caused the need for help defense in the lane which led to a lot of easy dishes for easy buckets. I know Michigan is a good 3-point shooting team, but according to the awesome hoop-math.com 85% of three pointers in college are assisted, and Michigan is right at that same number so they don't exactly have a lot of guys who are going to come around the pick and shoot right away. This just confused me the entire game.
4. Elliott Eliason may be an actual center now. It's been going on all season, really, as Eliason has stepped in after the loss of Trevor Mbakwe and has more than doubled his scoring, rebounding, and blocked shots, but it was welcome to see him notch a double double against a Big Ten team. A Big Team relatively devoid of effective big men, but a Big Ten team nonetheless. It was less pleasant to realize Eliason may be the most important player on the team, because Mo Walker is basically useless outside of a wide open lay-up, and Oto and Joey King are both too small. This realization is pretty terrifying, considering as of now there's only one new big coming in for next season as well.
5. No Draustin Hollins means no wins. When the two best players on the team shoot 4-19 and 1-11 from three it's going to be awfully, awfully tough to win. Some might say that coming that close to beating a decent Michigan team with the performance those two put up is actually a good sign for this team. Those people are idiots. The Gophers probably need both of them to play well in order to win most games, and I don't even know if they'd beat Northwestern if both played poorly (just kidding, they would). This was rough. I'm just glad we're already passed the holidays. I can't imagine having to sit there at the dinner table listening to Lionel berate both his sons for this poor play against Michigan. Ouch.
6. Honey Gopher is a site to behold. Dre Mathieu is really fun to watch. So incredibly fast, and incredibly creative once he gets in the paint, which he needs to be since he's only 5-9. Incredible hops as well, as he challenged Glen Robinson at the rim twice going for a highlight reel play - unfortunately Robinson ended up 2-0 in those match ups. That being said, when you're 5-9 and your best move is driving to the rim there are going to be some problems, and he kind of fell apart at the end including a couple of crushing turnovers with under 90 seconds left to play. I still love him. I like my point guards to be a little bit reckless, and he's just a little bit reckless.
7. The Defense on Nik Stauskas was stellar. Stauskas is a very good player and his changes from last year are legit, so holding him to 3-7 shooting and 1-4 on threes is quite good. Even more impressive is Stauskas only took 7 shots, only the fourth time he's had less than double digit shot attempts and two were in the first two games of the year before he realized he was good now and the other time was against Duke and I think he was hurt or something. Anyway, the Hollins brothers alternated on him and a solid combination of ball denial and tough man-to-man worked well for most of the game. He did manage to score 14 points, but seven of those came on free throws, and he also notched a season high seven assists because once he realized the Gophers were chasing on screens he just kept going into the lane and passing to somebody since help defense had to collapse to stop penetration kill me.
8. Somehow Jon Horford was a force. I said in my preview that you didn't really have to worry about Jordan Morgan or Jon Horford being an offensive presence, though Horford did at least have a bit of a jump shot. Pitino and the Gophers must be DWG readers, because they constantly left Horford alone in their defensive rotations and unfortunately he made them pay as he hit a number of nice 10-12 jumpers. Those jumpers along with being a frequent recipient of those easy dishes in the lane led to a 6-8 shooting night and 14 total points, a career high. Whatever. Your brother is still way better than you.
9. Replay kind of screwed the Gophers, but not in the way you might think. Or maybe in the way you think, I don't know your brain. When the Gophers appeared to create a Michigan turnover (and there were only 10 by Michigan for the game, by the way, compared to 15 for the Gophers which is not how they're going to win) down 3 with like 20 seconds left Pitino immediately called his final timeout to set up a play. After review, the refs correctly gave the ball back to Michigan. If that call is made correctly the first time Pitino never uses that timeout because you don't need a timeout to say "press and then foul." So the Gophers were left without a timeout at the end of the game. Didn't really matter I guess, but that could affect a game at some point in a meaningful way.
10. Has Corporate America taken over the student section? You know those big giant heads the students hold up to distract a free throw shooter? Kind of stupid but also pretty fun and always interesting to see who brings what, right? Well last night there were only about 5 or 6 of them (usually there's like 10-20) and they were all the stupid Target dog. The only explanation I can come up with is Target now sponsors that section and all other big head things are banned. Horrible. Simply horrible. Worse than Oto Osenieks who I like but stayed in the game way to long down the stretch with Malik Smith on the bench.
Whatever. We move on. Next up is Purdue on Saturday, and this is an absolute must win if this season is going to have any chance at resembling a successful one. Because Purdue is terrible. They're 10-4, and although they only have one bad loss (Washington State) they've struggled against some pretty terrible teams. They won by 1 versus Northern Kentucky, 4 vs. Rider, 5 vs. Siena, and 5 versus Eastern Michigan. They do have one good win over West Virginia, but nothing else impressive.
The Gophers should feel comfortable going back to their zone on Sunday, since Purdue doesn't shoot many threes and aren't particularly good at it when they do. What they do like to do is run, and while Painter's teams have never been slow paced this is his fastest team by a considerable margin. That they've upped their pace while still limiting turnovers quite a bit is impressive. Purdue plays three guards in Terone Johnson, Ronnie Johnson, and Bryson Scott who can all score (their three leading scorers) and who all value the basketball.
The X-factor will be 7-foot monster A.J. Hammons, who averages just 9 points and 8 rebounds on the season but just exploded for 18 & 16 versus Ohio State. The Gophers literally only have one guy who can effectively guard him and Hammons is very good at drawing fouls, which means Eliason is going to have to balance aggressiveness and smartness more than ever - Hammons would score 40 on Mo Walker or anybody else they can put in there. He's also a defensive monster, averaging nearly 4 blocks per game (5 against OSU) with a block rate that's third in the country. If the Gopher guards are going to penetrate - and they should be able to - they'll have to be smart with Hammons.
Despite Hammons, the Gophers are the far superior team as Purdue is still struggling with some really sub-par recruiting classes lately by their standards. There's always a danger the Gophers get wrecked inside, but that's going to be a danger no matter who they play, Purdue is just a little more dangerous in that regard that most bad teams.
Minnesota 83, Purdue 73
Fun game to watch, but not a fun outcome. That was an incredibly winnable game, and they just couldn't get it. A home loss to Michigan isn't a season killer by any stretch, but no being able to win a home game against a team on a similar tier (I thought) whose best player is out with an injury and also loses their second best player in the second half is not a good sign for the rest of the year. An NCAA bid just got that much more unlikely.
In a blatantly stolen format from the great Zach Lowe at Grantland, here are 10 things I liked and didn't like from last night. And yes I'm planning on using this format to recap every game unless I get bored or forget.
1. Fundamental Defense. The Gophers elected to mainly eschew the zone in favor of man-to-man against Michigan, which is something I said would probably be necessary for a win right here on this very blog, so I liked that. They also elected to get way out in passing lanes in order to try to force more turnovers, and it worked for a stretch, but it also over extended the defense and since Michigan and Beilein traditionally use a lot of Princeton offense principles when they have the ball, there were a lot of back cuts. More to the point, there were a lot of back cuts that led to open shots. If you're going to deny all passes you have to be near perfect in not losing your man or have help defense always in position. Neither happened against Michigan.
2. Offensive Creativity. One of the reasons the game was so fun to watch, beyond the Gophers pushing the ball at every opportunity, was Pitino doing a lot of cool things in the half court. One play I really liked was where they set two consecutive picks off the ball for Austin Hollins to do a curl cut out at the wing heading towards the free throw line. If he has shot or a driving lane, go with it obviously, but after Hollins comes through the second picker screens down on the first picker who pops out for an open three. The other really slick play was the one to get Malik Smith the open three near the end of the game (for some reason the btn2go replay feed ends at the 4 minute mark so I'm describing this one by memory). Mathieu sprints down court with the ball and heads to the right wing in what looks like your typical dribble hand off play, but instead of handing it off he keeps the ball and drives baseline, throwing the defense off. At the same time, Malik Smith heads towards the opposite corner (I don't know if there was a pick for him or not, but I suspect there was a back pick involved) for an open three. Cool play. So much interesting stuff going on at that end, I'm going to have to start recording the games and watching them a second time just to catch it all. Maybe.
3. Ball Screen Defense. I did not understand the defensive scheme last night. I've already said that I believed last night man-to-man was the way to go, but they way the Gophers defended ball screens really had me baffled. They chased the ball handler over the top of every screen, which is what you would do if you feared a three point shot coming right off the pick, but the big men never hedged out which created driving lanes for the dribbler (this is what Michigan did all night, bracket the ball handler with both the man guarding him and the man guarding the screener are night and it worked well to contain the Hollinseses). This penetration caused the need for help defense in the lane which led to a lot of easy dishes for easy buckets. I know Michigan is a good 3-point shooting team, but according to the awesome hoop-math.com 85% of three pointers in college are assisted, and Michigan is right at that same number so they don't exactly have a lot of guys who are going to come around the pick and shoot right away. This just confused me the entire game.
4. Elliott Eliason may be an actual center now. It's been going on all season, really, as Eliason has stepped in after the loss of Trevor Mbakwe and has more than doubled his scoring, rebounding, and blocked shots, but it was welcome to see him notch a double double against a Big Ten team. A Big Team relatively devoid of effective big men, but a Big Ten team nonetheless. It was less pleasant to realize Eliason may be the most important player on the team, because Mo Walker is basically useless outside of a wide open lay-up, and Oto and Joey King are both too small. This realization is pretty terrifying, considering as of now there's only one new big coming in for next season as well.
5. No Draustin Hollins means no wins. When the two best players on the team shoot 4-19 and 1-11 from three it's going to be awfully, awfully tough to win. Some might say that coming that close to beating a decent Michigan team with the performance those two put up is actually a good sign for this team. Those people are idiots. The Gophers probably need both of them to play well in order to win most games, and I don't even know if they'd beat Northwestern if both played poorly (just kidding, they would). This was rough. I'm just glad we're already passed the holidays. I can't imagine having to sit there at the dinner table listening to Lionel berate both his sons for this poor play against Michigan. Ouch.
6. Honey Gopher is a site to behold. Dre Mathieu is really fun to watch. So incredibly fast, and incredibly creative once he gets in the paint, which he needs to be since he's only 5-9. Incredible hops as well, as he challenged Glen Robinson at the rim twice going for a highlight reel play - unfortunately Robinson ended up 2-0 in those match ups. That being said, when you're 5-9 and your best move is driving to the rim there are going to be some problems, and he kind of fell apart at the end including a couple of crushing turnovers with under 90 seconds left to play. I still love him. I like my point guards to be a little bit reckless, and he's just a little bit reckless.
7. The Defense on Nik Stauskas was stellar. Stauskas is a very good player and his changes from last year are legit, so holding him to 3-7 shooting and 1-4 on threes is quite good. Even more impressive is Stauskas only took 7 shots, only the fourth time he's had less than double digit shot attempts and two were in the first two games of the year before he realized he was good now and the other time was against Duke and I think he was hurt or something. Anyway, the Hollins brothers alternated on him and a solid combination of ball denial and tough man-to-man worked well for most of the game. He did manage to score 14 points, but seven of those came on free throws, and he also notched a season high seven assists because once he realized the Gophers were chasing on screens he just kept going into the lane and passing to somebody since help defense had to collapse to stop penetration kill me.
8. Somehow Jon Horford was a force. I said in my preview that you didn't really have to worry about Jordan Morgan or Jon Horford being an offensive presence, though Horford did at least have a bit of a jump shot. Pitino and the Gophers must be DWG readers, because they constantly left Horford alone in their defensive rotations and unfortunately he made them pay as he hit a number of nice 10-12 jumpers. Those jumpers along with being a frequent recipient of those easy dishes in the lane led to a 6-8 shooting night and 14 total points, a career high. Whatever. Your brother is still way better than you.
9. Replay kind of screwed the Gophers, but not in the way you might think. Or maybe in the way you think, I don't know your brain. When the Gophers appeared to create a Michigan turnover (and there were only 10 by Michigan for the game, by the way, compared to 15 for the Gophers which is not how they're going to win) down 3 with like 20 seconds left Pitino immediately called his final timeout to set up a play. After review, the refs correctly gave the ball back to Michigan. If that call is made correctly the first time Pitino never uses that timeout because you don't need a timeout to say "press and then foul." So the Gophers were left without a timeout at the end of the game. Didn't really matter I guess, but that could affect a game at some point in a meaningful way.
10. Has Corporate America taken over the student section? You know those big giant heads the students hold up to distract a free throw shooter? Kind of stupid but also pretty fun and always interesting to see who brings what, right? Well last night there were only about 5 or 6 of them (usually there's like 10-20) and they were all the stupid Target dog. The only explanation I can come up with is Target now sponsors that section and all other big head things are banned. Horrible. Simply horrible. Worse than Oto Osenieks who I like but stayed in the game way to long down the stretch with Malik Smith on the bench.
Whatever. We move on. Next up is Purdue on Saturday, and this is an absolute must win if this season is going to have any chance at resembling a successful one. Because Purdue is terrible. They're 10-4, and although they only have one bad loss (Washington State) they've struggled against some pretty terrible teams. They won by 1 versus Northern Kentucky, 4 vs. Rider, 5 vs. Siena, and 5 versus Eastern Michigan. They do have one good win over West Virginia, but nothing else impressive.
The Gophers should feel comfortable going back to their zone on Sunday, since Purdue doesn't shoot many threes and aren't particularly good at it when they do. What they do like to do is run, and while Painter's teams have never been slow paced this is his fastest team by a considerable margin. That they've upped their pace while still limiting turnovers quite a bit is impressive. Purdue plays three guards in Terone Johnson, Ronnie Johnson, and Bryson Scott who can all score (their three leading scorers) and who all value the basketball.
The X-factor will be 7-foot monster A.J. Hammons, who averages just 9 points and 8 rebounds on the season but just exploded for 18 & 16 versus Ohio State. The Gophers literally only have one guy who can effectively guard him and Hammons is very good at drawing fouls, which means Eliason is going to have to balance aggressiveness and smartness more than ever - Hammons would score 40 on Mo Walker or anybody else they can put in there. He's also a defensive monster, averaging nearly 4 blocks per game (5 against OSU) with a block rate that's third in the country. If the Gopher guards are going to penetrate - and they should be able to - they'll have to be smart with Hammons.
Despite Hammons, the Gophers are the far superior team as Purdue is still struggling with some really sub-par recruiting classes lately by their standards. There's always a danger the Gophers get wrecked inside, but that's going to be a danger no matter who they play, Purdue is just a little more dangerous in that regard that most bad teams.
Minnesota 83, Purdue 73
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Hoops Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines
Oh hey there. Been a while. I didn't mean to not post the entire holiday break, but I was sort of busy and extremely lazy so here we are. Doesn't matter now though, because I'm back as the Gophers kick-off the Big Ten season, and the real beginning of the Richard Pitino era (hopefully it ends up being an era or something), and I, for one, and absolutely thrilled they're opening the conference season at home against Michigan - it's the perfect measuring stick. I'm still not exactly sure what to make of this Gopher team, but we should be able to learn a whole lot Thursday night.
Michigan is a good, but not great team, that sits at 8-4 with three completely understandable losses (road games at Duke and Iowa State, home game vs. Arizona) and one weird loss (vs. Charlotte in Puerto Rico). They rank highly according to kenpom.com at #20, but that's not so much higher than the Gophers (who rank #34). They're also without their dominant (potentially) big man in Mitch McGary leaving ho-hum guys Jordan Morgan (in his seventh year) and Jon Horford as their only real post players, meaning the Wolverines don't have a clear match-up advantage over the Gophers. Perfect opponent to open.
If the Gophers in, they'll be in the running for an NCAA bid since this is the kind of game an NCAA tournament team wins. If they lose, we will know that the NCAA is not a likely result this year. Pretty simple stuff. If this was a road game you can't really definitely say you learned anything because road conference games can be super weird, while a home win over somebody like Purdue tells you nothing (though a loss would) and a loss at home to somebody like Ohio State doesn't really tell you anything either, and a win might not either. But this is pretty simple - Michigan is pretty much the demarcation line between good Big Ten teams and bad ones - so win this game and things look good for the season outlook.
It's also an interesting test in another way because many of the people who criticized the Pitino hire liked to say that the uptempo style he'd like to run wouldn't work in the Big Ten. Michigan is one of the slowest team's in the country (rank #304) and behind just Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern in the conference. Michigan doesn't turn it over and they love to shoot the three ball (this is a Beilein team after all), and are quite good at it, so if the press + zone isn't on it's game there is serious potential for Michigan to blow this game open - in fact, I'd say a Michigan double-digit win is actually more likely than a Gopher double-digit win, even if, spoiler alert, I'm going to pick the Gophers to win the game. This year's Michigan team actually profiles a lot like a typical Wisconsin team, so the Gophers will need to be highly in sync on defense to hold Michigan down.
The Wolverines are lead by one of the most interesting players in the NCAA in my opinion in Nik Stauskas. With Tre Burke and Tim Hardaway off to the NBA somebody was going to have to step up on this team and many assumed it would be Glenn Robinson. Although Robinson's scoring is up (14.2ppg vs. 11.0 ppg) it's because he's taking a few more shots and his percentages and efficiencies remain basically the same. Stauskas, on the other hand, has exploded and completely changed his game. Last season he was the designated 3-point bomber, this year he's expanded his game and become their go to guy (18.2ppg vs. 11.0ppg). He's still a major threat from 3 (48% on 5.5 attempts per game), but he's also been taking the ball to the rim more and that's resulted in a lot more free throw opportunities. He's the rare player who has upped his possessions but upped his efficiency as well, and he's very dangerous spotting up in transition. Frankly he's terrifying.
Michigan's other threats are all guards as well in freshman point guard Derrick Walton, freshman wing Zak Irvin, and sophomore wing Caris LeVert. Walton is the team's true point guard, and like most freshmen point guards he's struggled with turnovers and his shot. He's basically the team's top ballhandler but is also the only turnover prone player on the team, which works out well for the Gophers. Irvin is a versatile scorer but has basically turned himself into this year's Stauskas, which has to be kind of infuriating for Michigan fans since I feel like he could be so much more. Then again I suppose you could do worse than 40% on 5.5 three point attempts per game with minimal turnovers. Finally, LeVert is another primary ball handler and another guy who has upped his usage big time this year (from under 3 shots per game to over 10). Overall he's been very efficient and, surprise, never turns it over, but he's also been really all over the map in terms of effectiveness as a scorer (his last five games he's scored 24-4-15-1-16). Not letting LeVert be the third scorer the Wolverines need will be a major key for Minnesota.
Outside of that core there's not much offense to be found. Spike Albrecht has the ability to hit a bunch of threes (see: first half of National Title game) but mainly has proven himself to be a capable back-up point guard. As previously mentioned big guys Horford and Morgan grab some rebounds, set some picks, and can block some shots (which is where they'll mostly be effective against the Gophers - turning back guard penetration). Horford is a little more versatile as he has a little bit of a jump shot while Morgan has none, but neither should make any kind of major impact on the game offensively.
In a lot of ways this Michigan team is built to take apart a team that plays the way the Gophers do - slow it down, don't turn it over against the press, and exploit the open three-point opportunities which will present themselves against the zone and in transition. I'd actually really like to see the Gophers mix in a good bit of man-to-man in this game since I don't think Michigan can take advantage of any mis-matches, but a well drilled zone team can shut down a 3-point team as well by closing out on threes and making the offense take bad shots (see: Syracuse vs. Villanova). Should be fun to see.
Basically if the Gophers are a NCAA Tournament caliber team they'll win this game. If they don't win this game, most likely they aren't a NCAA Tournament team. I believe that either the zone will work, or Pitino is a good enough coach and a coach willing to make changes that the Gophers will end up in a man-to-man and I think the advantage shifts to the Gophers in that case. I choose to believe.
Minnesota 74, Michigan 66
Also, before we get to the pictures, check out this Gopher Hoops Rube Roundtable including yours truly put together by the guys over at From the Barn, a tradition in it's third year (I did not participate last season because I completely forgot). Anyway, it's good stuff, check it out.
Michigan is a good, but not great team, that sits at 8-4 with three completely understandable losses (road games at Duke and Iowa State, home game vs. Arizona) and one weird loss (vs. Charlotte in Puerto Rico). They rank highly according to kenpom.com at #20, but that's not so much higher than the Gophers (who rank #34). They're also without their dominant (potentially) big man in Mitch McGary leaving ho-hum guys Jordan Morgan (in his seventh year) and Jon Horford as their only real post players, meaning the Wolverines don't have a clear match-up advantage over the Gophers. Perfect opponent to open.
If the Gophers in, they'll be in the running for an NCAA bid since this is the kind of game an NCAA tournament team wins. If they lose, we will know that the NCAA is not a likely result this year. Pretty simple stuff. If this was a road game you can't really definitely say you learned anything because road conference games can be super weird, while a home win over somebody like Purdue tells you nothing (though a loss would) and a loss at home to somebody like Ohio State doesn't really tell you anything either, and a win might not either. But this is pretty simple - Michigan is pretty much the demarcation line between good Big Ten teams and bad ones - so win this game and things look good for the season outlook.
It's also an interesting test in another way because many of the people who criticized the Pitino hire liked to say that the uptempo style he'd like to run wouldn't work in the Big Ten. Michigan is one of the slowest team's in the country (rank #304) and behind just Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern in the conference. Michigan doesn't turn it over and they love to shoot the three ball (this is a Beilein team after all), and are quite good at it, so if the press + zone isn't on it's game there is serious potential for Michigan to blow this game open - in fact, I'd say a Michigan double-digit win is actually more likely than a Gopher double-digit win, even if, spoiler alert, I'm going to pick the Gophers to win the game. This year's Michigan team actually profiles a lot like a typical Wisconsin team, so the Gophers will need to be highly in sync on defense to hold Michigan down.
The Wolverines are lead by one of the most interesting players in the NCAA in my opinion in Nik Stauskas. With Tre Burke and Tim Hardaway off to the NBA somebody was going to have to step up on this team and many assumed it would be Glenn Robinson. Although Robinson's scoring is up (14.2ppg vs. 11.0 ppg) it's because he's taking a few more shots and his percentages and efficiencies remain basically the same. Stauskas, on the other hand, has exploded and completely changed his game. Last season he was the designated 3-point bomber, this year he's expanded his game and become their go to guy (18.2ppg vs. 11.0ppg). He's still a major threat from 3 (48% on 5.5 attempts per game), but he's also been taking the ball to the rim more and that's resulted in a lot more free throw opportunities. He's the rare player who has upped his possessions but upped his efficiency as well, and he's very dangerous spotting up in transition. Frankly he's terrifying.
Michigan's other threats are all guards as well in freshman point guard Derrick Walton, freshman wing Zak Irvin, and sophomore wing Caris LeVert. Walton is the team's true point guard, and like most freshmen point guards he's struggled with turnovers and his shot. He's basically the team's top ballhandler but is also the only turnover prone player on the team, which works out well for the Gophers. Irvin is a versatile scorer but has basically turned himself into this year's Stauskas, which has to be kind of infuriating for Michigan fans since I feel like he could be so much more. Then again I suppose you could do worse than 40% on 5.5 three point attempts per game with minimal turnovers. Finally, LeVert is another primary ball handler and another guy who has upped his usage big time this year (from under 3 shots per game to over 10). Overall he's been very efficient and, surprise, never turns it over, but he's also been really all over the map in terms of effectiveness as a scorer (his last five games he's scored 24-4-15-1-16). Not letting LeVert be the third scorer the Wolverines need will be a major key for Minnesota.
Outside of that core there's not much offense to be found. Spike Albrecht has the ability to hit a bunch of threes (see: first half of National Title game) but mainly has proven himself to be a capable back-up point guard. As previously mentioned big guys Horford and Morgan grab some rebounds, set some picks, and can block some shots (which is where they'll mostly be effective against the Gophers - turning back guard penetration). Horford is a little more versatile as he has a little bit of a jump shot while Morgan has none, but neither should make any kind of major impact on the game offensively.
In a lot of ways this Michigan team is built to take apart a team that plays the way the Gophers do - slow it down, don't turn it over against the press, and exploit the open three-point opportunities which will present themselves against the zone and in transition. I'd actually really like to see the Gophers mix in a good bit of man-to-man in this game since I don't think Michigan can take advantage of any mis-matches, but a well drilled zone team can shut down a 3-point team as well by closing out on threes and making the offense take bad shots (see: Syracuse vs. Villanova). Should be fun to see.
Basically if the Gophers are a NCAA Tournament caliber team they'll win this game. If they don't win this game, most likely they aren't a NCAA Tournament team. I believe that either the zone will work, or Pitino is a good enough coach and a coach willing to make changes that the Gophers will end up in a man-to-man and I think the advantage shifts to the Gophers in that case. I choose to believe.
Minnesota 74, Michigan 66
Also, before we get to the pictures, check out this Gopher Hoops Rube Roundtable including yours truly put together by the guys over at From the Barn, a tradition in it's third year (I did not participate last season because I completely forgot). Anyway, it's good stuff, check it out.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Big Ten Hoops So Far
With the Holiday tournaments and B10/ACC Challenge behind us this a nice time to take a look around the league and see what's happened so far, and what we think we know about these teams. So let's do this, power ranking style of course because we are on the internet after all. As usual, all stats per kenpom.com.
1. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I told you dopes that as much as it pained me to say that Wisconsin would be really good this year, and it appears I may have actually underrated them. 10-0 right now with wins over top 100 kenpom teams St. Johns (67), Florida (13), Green Bay (87), Saint Louis (28), West Virginia (60), Virginia (19), and Marquette (45). That is freaking impressive and easily the best list of anybody in the Big Ten and maybe the nation but it's a lot of work to double check that so let's just run with it. At this point kenpom projects them to win every game the rest of the year other than @Michigan and @Iowa (they don't travel to Columbus or East Lansing), so we're looking at a possible 29-2 with a ton of good wins - a #1 seed for the Badgers?
It's the same formula they use every year - super slow pace of play, good defense, good rebounding, and efficient shooting. Frank Kaminsky is the newest big dumb slow fat white guy who has suddenly blossomed into a star under Bo Ryan and Sam Dekker has been as good as advertised. The one problem they might have is they aren't very deep with the five starters all playing 28+ minutes and no bench guys playing more than 15, and their big time reliance offensively on the three pointer. I suppose that's been their MO, so no need to worry too much. This is a really good Badger team and it sucks.
Shout out to #1 Badger fan Matty Wisconsin. Big fan, Yao Ming jersey wearer, and fastest beer chugger I've ever seen. And he's on twitter! @strykerpks. Check it. He follows @spaghettios and is a big fan of the Beer Stars.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. At 7-0 with two good wins (Maryland, Marquette) and two decent wins (Ohio, Wyoming) the Buckeyes haven't been seriously challenged (all wins by 10+) and they're doing it, no surprise, with their defense. OSU ranks #1 in total defensive efficiency, #3 in opponents effective field goal %, and #10 in turning their opponent over. Basically they will force turnovers all the time and when they don't it's really hard to make a shot against them.
Of course everyone expected Ohio State to be elite defensively, but the big question was how the Buckeyes would fare on offense with the loss of DeShaun Thomas. Everyone wondered who would step up, and although nobody has really stepped into his place is hasn't mattered because everybody has upped their game just a bit and they're doing it by committee - six players average between 9.0 and 11.4 points per game. It's weird to look at their stats because they only play nine guys - like, literally nine guys as only one other guy has played at all and only two games - and they all play 13+ minutes and all contribute.
I thought Ohio State would struggle this year on the offensive end and that would knock them down a peg, but they're doing just fine as a collective group. There may end up being some rebounding issues that could do them in, and they haven't played a truly great team (and won't until January) so there are still plenty of questions, but I'm impressed so far. Great coaching job by Thad Matta, and I probably should have seen that coming.
3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. I still think Sparty will probably end up the best team in this conference, but horrendous effort against North Carolina, particularly at home. When was the last time Michigan State was out rebounded that badly (49-38)? It helped that they shot so poorly, of course, and that's another good point because shooting just 40% from 2 is so bad you almost have to try to do that poorly, which would actually explain a lot about that game.
Obviously a loss to North Carolina doesn't wipe out all the good that the early win over Kentucky did, but they've struggled to pull away from teams all year and it's the kind of thing that could bite them in the ass come March. Letting Oklahoma, Columbia, and Portland hang around is really not great considering those are the exact type of teams that Michigan State is likely to face in the first round of the tournament. Of course, it's Tom Izzo here, so the team is likely to get better as the season goes on and I can't imagine an Izzo team ever getting bounced in the first round unless it's already happened and I don't remember and if it has don't remind me - I want to remember Izzo as I remember him, not all mixed up with facts and stuff. That's for nerds.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES. They were everybody's sleeper for this year, and they've more than lived up to that billing. Wins over Drake (#98), Xavier (#65), Notre Dame (#74), and an absolute stomping of UTEP (#90) make up a pretty good resume this early in the season, but Iowa's most impressive outing may have been their overtime loss to Villanova (#5). The Hawkeyes had a double digit lead well into the second half before Nova got white hot to go up 7 with four minute left before Iowa clawed back to tie it up.
Roy Marble looks like he's going to be one of the top players in the conference this year, Aaron White has suddenly morphed into a complete player, and transfer Jarrod Uthoff is way, way better than I ever expected. Those three have plenty of room to operate too, because the team's two point guards (Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell) both hate shooting and they don't really have a center. Well they have three, but they're all pretty horrible and are basically the poster children for not developing past your freshman year (seriously they may as well have been coached by Tubby). The Hawkeyes still don't shoot the ball very accurately, but they've done everything else so well this year that it's covered up that issue. Interested to see what happens down the road.
5. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. This is probably the hardest team to evaluate. They have three losses, but all are explainable (the neutral court loss to Charlotte is a little head scratching, but it's not like they're a bad team). Because of those losses (the other two were @Duke and @Iowa State) the only good win they have is against Florida State in overtime, and the rest are against scrubs. Granted, they've taken care of business against said scrubs and their advanced metrics look good (ranked #27 overall), but there's nothing truly impressive at all in the results, so I mostly have them at #5 based on the belief that they'll come around.
I expect they will mainly because they haven't struggled the way I expected after losing Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, in that they're taking care of the ball just fine (14th best in TO%). They're still missing out on that driving ability Burke and Hardaway had, although Nik Stauskas is doing his best to fill that role. Right now they only have three real offensive threats, and Glen Robinson seems to be regressing and I have trouble believing Caris LeVert is for real (mainly because of that terrible name). I expect Michigan to end up a Top 25 team, but I won't be shocked if they don't.
6. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I believe I had them at seven when I did my preseason rankings, so this says I'm impressed enough to move them up a spot, which I suppose is a good thing. I still have one jillion questions about this team, and unfortunately none of them are going to be answered until conference play starts in January because the next three opponents are pretty much worthless as a measuring tool. The rebounding and interior defense will likely continue to be an issue, but Drizzy Matheiu is better than I could have hoped and the guards are going to keep them in a bunch of games and maybe even manage to sneak out and upset or two. I still don't think this is quite an NCAA Tournament team, but it's getting closer. That win over Florida State impressed me. Looking forward to Big Ten play.
7. INDIANA HOOSIERS. I get this impression that people think Indiana is good and guess what? They really aren't. What have they done besides show everyone how big a chucker supposed "point guard" Yogi Ferrell really is? Ok, sure they played a great game against UCONN that went down to the wire. Ok, I'll give you that one. But then they got crushed by Syracuse and they have nothing else on the resume. The win against Washington sounds good, but the Huskies are absolutely terrible. The win over Stony Brook is probably their best win. I actually think the Hoosiers are less likely to bomb out than Michigan, but there are plenty of questions here.
Basically with so many players suddenly thrust into new roles with everything they lost last year the team is struggling with who fits where and how to play together. Thus they're turning the ball over at an alarming rate (21.5% of possessions, ranks 310th) and just not sharing the ball well (328th in assists per field goal). It probably does help when your point guard shoots all the time, but he's also their most efficient player so what do you do? They're very talented and very deep, so a great coach like Tom Crean I'm sure will eventually get this all straightened out.
Ha ha just kidding Crean sucks and is a terrible person and I hope he burns the program to the ground.
8. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Illinois has a nice shiny 8-1 record, but it's a completely empty 8-1 record. There isn't a single good win on that resume. A win over UNLV sounds good, until you realize that UNLV is a shitbox this year, and Valpo is the only other win they have that's even close to going to matter at the end of the year. They had a good chance at a quality win on the road against a somewhat frisky Georgia Tech team, but they let the Yellow Jackets finish the game on a 19-4 run so Illinois lost by three.
Despite a new coach and a whole new group of players they're still doing the traditional Illinois thing where they like to sit around and shoot jump shots. And, also a tradition at Illinois, they're not very good at having those jump shots go in. Luckily, thus far, they've been extremely good at rebounding their own misses, something that is unlikely to continue once we get into Big Ten play. They don't create turnovers at all, either, which means their only means of getting extra possessions is by those offensive boards, and, like I said earlier if you were paying attention, I doubt that keeps up against Big Ten teams.
9. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. I don't know what it is about my attraction to Penn State but I can't stop being infatuated. I'm like Freddie Prinze looking at Jessica Biel. No wait that one made sense. More like I'm some handsome devil like Ryan Gosling and I ended up falling in love with that lumpy chick from Girls. Penn State has all kinds of flaws and I shouldn't be attracted to their fat ass and busted teeth, but there are enough good things here that I keep overlooking those flaws and fixating on that great personality, sense of humor, and alcoholism.
Ok that was a pretty tortuous analogy, but the point is that Penn State is probably horrible but I love them anyway. A couple of really good guards including maybe the best one in the conference, a team that never turns the ball over and shoots well, a patchwork front court that fits together just well enough to be dangerous, and a horrible defense that ensures their games are going to entertaining. Then they get a sharp shooting transfer from Pitt eligible in the second semester. They haven't necessarily done anything impressive, but they do have wins over St. John's and LaSalle. I dunno, I'm rooting for them. WHAT'S WRONG WITH ME!??!?!
10. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Nebraska has actually been a pleasant surprise this year. Pleasant as in I, and many others, expected them to be completely horrible, while instead they've been somewhat competent. Wins over Miami and Georgia aren't great, but they're solid enough, and they've been competitive against good teams like Creighton, UAB, and UMass. The advanced metrics aren't great as they're the only Big 10 team outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (a near loss to Northern Illinois and they're 305 ranking doesn't help things), but they are looking better than they have the last couple of years.
Tai Webster, the much heralded freshman point guard from New Zealand, hasn't worked out as well as hoped yet as he struggles with his shot and turns the ball over far too frequently, but those are problems most freshman point guards deal with so there's no reason to panic. The Huskers have gotten solid play from their transfers, with Terran Petteway (Texas Tech), Deverell Biggs (Juco, reshirted last year), and Walter Pitchford (Florida) all in the team's top four in scoring and rebounding. Perhaps Nebraska is taking a page out of Iowa State's and becoming transfer U. No just kidding.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Purdue beat Boston College 88-67 in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, and I feel confident in saying that's the first good thing they've done all year. Really. Despite being 8-2, before beating BC and following that up by beating Eastern Michigan this weekend, the Boilers wins were all over teams outside the Top 208 with four of those wins by less than double figures. One loss was fine (to Oklahoma State) but the other was pretty wretched (to Washington State).
What's gone wrong? They're just thoroughly mediocre as Matt Painter has been unable to bring in top tier talent lately. Nine of the twelve Big 10 teams could be consider elite offensively or defensively, but Purdue (along with Northwestern and Nebraska) is just blah. The Boilers are playing at a lightning quick pace, their fastest ever under Painter, perhaps due to their overall lack of size, but it's not translating to easy baskets, and they're giving up way too many easy ones on the other end. Purdue is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. They're really bad.
12. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I cannot think of a single good thing to say about Northwestern this year other than that they probably have a really good combined IQ. They've basically been crushed by every single decent team they've played so far while sneaking wins against crap teams. This is how it's going: Northwestern is ranked #140 overall by kenpom's advanced metrics. The next worst team in the Big Ten is Nebraska all the way up at #92. There isn't a worse team in the ACC. There's just one worse in the Pac-12 and Big 12, and two worse in the Big East. They've been one of the worst teams in major conference basketball.
They're the worst team in the conference in offensive efficiency, and the second worst in defensive efficiency. I thought the return of Drew Crawford would mean this team would have an outside chance to rise to the level of competitive, and he's been fine, but the rest of the team has been crap. Dave Sobolewski has been absolute garbage, Alex Olah is putting up embarrassing rebounding numbers for a seven footer, and Tre Demps is still a terrible chucker. Chris Collins will likely find a way to make the program more competitive, and he's already got a nice recruiting class for next season coming in, but this year is the kind of year where a team with tournament aspirations needs to sweep Northwestern. Which, as you know, means the Gophers are headed to splitsville. Come on Pitino, break that curse that I just made up.
So that's where we stand with just a few short weeks to go until conference play. I see three teams with a shot at a #1 seed, two others who are almost certain to get bids, and then a small group of teams who will be around the bubble. I think the Gophers and Indiana are a step ahead of teams like Illinois and Penn State, but as usual it's going to come down to who defends home court and who can steal some games. I'm happy to say I see the Gophers right in the mix for a bid at this point, so hopefully that keeps up. Should be a pretty entertaining league this year with a lot of teams very close together in talent and skill level. Avoiding losses to the bottom three teams will be key.
1. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I told you dopes that as much as it pained me to say that Wisconsin would be really good this year, and it appears I may have actually underrated them. 10-0 right now with wins over top 100 kenpom teams St. Johns (67), Florida (13), Green Bay (87), Saint Louis (28), West Virginia (60), Virginia (19), and Marquette (45). That is freaking impressive and easily the best list of anybody in the Big Ten and maybe the nation but it's a lot of work to double check that so let's just run with it. At this point kenpom projects them to win every game the rest of the year other than @Michigan and @Iowa (they don't travel to Columbus or East Lansing), so we're looking at a possible 29-2 with a ton of good wins - a #1 seed for the Badgers?
It's the same formula they use every year - super slow pace of play, good defense, good rebounding, and efficient shooting. Frank Kaminsky is the newest big dumb slow fat white guy who has suddenly blossomed into a star under Bo Ryan and Sam Dekker has been as good as advertised. The one problem they might have is they aren't very deep with the five starters all playing 28+ minutes and no bench guys playing more than 15, and their big time reliance offensively on the three pointer. I suppose that's been their MO, so no need to worry too much. This is a really good Badger team and it sucks.
Shout out to #1 Badger fan Matty Wisconsin. Big fan, Yao Ming jersey wearer, and fastest beer chugger I've ever seen. And he's on twitter! @strykerpks. Check it. He follows @spaghettios and is a big fan of the Beer Stars.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. At 7-0 with two good wins (Maryland, Marquette) and two decent wins (Ohio, Wyoming) the Buckeyes haven't been seriously challenged (all wins by 10+) and they're doing it, no surprise, with their defense. OSU ranks #1 in total defensive efficiency, #3 in opponents effective field goal %, and #10 in turning their opponent over. Basically they will force turnovers all the time and when they don't it's really hard to make a shot against them.
Of course everyone expected Ohio State to be elite defensively, but the big question was how the Buckeyes would fare on offense with the loss of DeShaun Thomas. Everyone wondered who would step up, and although nobody has really stepped into his place is hasn't mattered because everybody has upped their game just a bit and they're doing it by committee - six players average between 9.0 and 11.4 points per game. It's weird to look at their stats because they only play nine guys - like, literally nine guys as only one other guy has played at all and only two games - and they all play 13+ minutes and all contribute.
I thought Ohio State would struggle this year on the offensive end and that would knock them down a peg, but they're doing just fine as a collective group. There may end up being some rebounding issues that could do them in, and they haven't played a truly great team (and won't until January) so there are still plenty of questions, but I'm impressed so far. Great coaching job by Thad Matta, and I probably should have seen that coming.
3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. I still think Sparty will probably end up the best team in this conference, but horrendous effort against North Carolina, particularly at home. When was the last time Michigan State was out rebounded that badly (49-38)? It helped that they shot so poorly, of course, and that's another good point because shooting just 40% from 2 is so bad you almost have to try to do that poorly, which would actually explain a lot about that game.
Obviously a loss to North Carolina doesn't wipe out all the good that the early win over Kentucky did, but they've struggled to pull away from teams all year and it's the kind of thing that could bite them in the ass come March. Letting Oklahoma, Columbia, and Portland hang around is really not great considering those are the exact type of teams that Michigan State is likely to face in the first round of the tournament. Of course, it's Tom Izzo here, so the team is likely to get better as the season goes on and I can't imagine an Izzo team ever getting bounced in the first round unless it's already happened and I don't remember and if it has don't remind me - I want to remember Izzo as I remember him, not all mixed up with facts and stuff. That's for nerds.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES. They were everybody's sleeper for this year, and they've more than lived up to that billing. Wins over Drake (#98), Xavier (#65), Notre Dame (#74), and an absolute stomping of UTEP (#90) make up a pretty good resume this early in the season, but Iowa's most impressive outing may have been their overtime loss to Villanova (#5). The Hawkeyes had a double digit lead well into the second half before Nova got white hot to go up 7 with four minute left before Iowa clawed back to tie it up.
Roy Marble looks like he's going to be one of the top players in the conference this year, Aaron White has suddenly morphed into a complete player, and transfer Jarrod Uthoff is way, way better than I ever expected. Those three have plenty of room to operate too, because the team's two point guards (Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell) both hate shooting and they don't really have a center. Well they have three, but they're all pretty horrible and are basically the poster children for not developing past your freshman year (seriously they may as well have been coached by Tubby). The Hawkeyes still don't shoot the ball very accurately, but they've done everything else so well this year that it's covered up that issue. Interested to see what happens down the road.
5. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. This is probably the hardest team to evaluate. They have three losses, but all are explainable (the neutral court loss to Charlotte is a little head scratching, but it's not like they're a bad team). Because of those losses (the other two were @Duke and @Iowa State) the only good win they have is against Florida State in overtime, and the rest are against scrubs. Granted, they've taken care of business against said scrubs and their advanced metrics look good (ranked #27 overall), but there's nothing truly impressive at all in the results, so I mostly have them at #5 based on the belief that they'll come around.
I expect they will mainly because they haven't struggled the way I expected after losing Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, in that they're taking care of the ball just fine (14th best in TO%). They're still missing out on that driving ability Burke and Hardaway had, although Nik Stauskas is doing his best to fill that role. Right now they only have three real offensive threats, and Glen Robinson seems to be regressing and I have trouble believing Caris LeVert is for real (mainly because of that terrible name). I expect Michigan to end up a Top 25 team, but I won't be shocked if they don't.
6. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I believe I had them at seven when I did my preseason rankings, so this says I'm impressed enough to move them up a spot, which I suppose is a good thing. I still have one jillion questions about this team, and unfortunately none of them are going to be answered until conference play starts in January because the next three opponents are pretty much worthless as a measuring tool. The rebounding and interior defense will likely continue to be an issue, but Drizzy Matheiu is better than I could have hoped and the guards are going to keep them in a bunch of games and maybe even manage to sneak out and upset or two. I still don't think this is quite an NCAA Tournament team, but it's getting closer. That win over Florida State impressed me. Looking forward to Big Ten play.
7. INDIANA HOOSIERS. I get this impression that people think Indiana is good and guess what? They really aren't. What have they done besides show everyone how big a chucker supposed "point guard" Yogi Ferrell really is? Ok, sure they played a great game against UCONN that went down to the wire. Ok, I'll give you that one. But then they got crushed by Syracuse and they have nothing else on the resume. The win against Washington sounds good, but the Huskies are absolutely terrible. The win over Stony Brook is probably their best win. I actually think the Hoosiers are less likely to bomb out than Michigan, but there are plenty of questions here.
Basically with so many players suddenly thrust into new roles with everything they lost last year the team is struggling with who fits where and how to play together. Thus they're turning the ball over at an alarming rate (21.5% of possessions, ranks 310th) and just not sharing the ball well (328th in assists per field goal). It probably does help when your point guard shoots all the time, but he's also their most efficient player so what do you do? They're very talented and very deep, so a great coach like Tom Crean I'm sure will eventually get this all straightened out.
Ha ha just kidding Crean sucks and is a terrible person and I hope he burns the program to the ground.
8. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Illinois has a nice shiny 8-1 record, but it's a completely empty 8-1 record. There isn't a single good win on that resume. A win over UNLV sounds good, until you realize that UNLV is a shitbox this year, and Valpo is the only other win they have that's even close to going to matter at the end of the year. They had a good chance at a quality win on the road against a somewhat frisky Georgia Tech team, but they let the Yellow Jackets finish the game on a 19-4 run so Illinois lost by three.
Despite a new coach and a whole new group of players they're still doing the traditional Illinois thing where they like to sit around and shoot jump shots. And, also a tradition at Illinois, they're not very good at having those jump shots go in. Luckily, thus far, they've been extremely good at rebounding their own misses, something that is unlikely to continue once we get into Big Ten play. They don't create turnovers at all, either, which means their only means of getting extra possessions is by those offensive boards, and, like I said earlier if you were paying attention, I doubt that keeps up against Big Ten teams.
9. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. I don't know what it is about my attraction to Penn State but I can't stop being infatuated. I'm like Freddie Prinze looking at Jessica Biel. No wait that one made sense. More like I'm some handsome devil like Ryan Gosling and I ended up falling in love with that lumpy chick from Girls. Penn State has all kinds of flaws and I shouldn't be attracted to their fat ass and busted teeth, but there are enough good things here that I keep overlooking those flaws and fixating on that great personality, sense of humor, and alcoholism.
Ok that was a pretty tortuous analogy, but the point is that Penn State is probably horrible but I love them anyway. A couple of really good guards including maybe the best one in the conference, a team that never turns the ball over and shoots well, a patchwork front court that fits together just well enough to be dangerous, and a horrible defense that ensures their games are going to entertaining. Then they get a sharp shooting transfer from Pitt eligible in the second semester. They haven't necessarily done anything impressive, but they do have wins over St. John's and LaSalle. I dunno, I'm rooting for them. WHAT'S WRONG WITH ME!??!?!
10. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Nebraska has actually been a pleasant surprise this year. Pleasant as in I, and many others, expected them to be completely horrible, while instead they've been somewhat competent. Wins over Miami and Georgia aren't great, but they're solid enough, and they've been competitive against good teams like Creighton, UAB, and UMass. The advanced metrics aren't great as they're the only Big 10 team outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (a near loss to Northern Illinois and they're 305 ranking doesn't help things), but they are looking better than they have the last couple of years.
Tai Webster, the much heralded freshman point guard from New Zealand, hasn't worked out as well as hoped yet as he struggles with his shot and turns the ball over far too frequently, but those are problems most freshman point guards deal with so there's no reason to panic. The Huskers have gotten solid play from their transfers, with Terran Petteway (Texas Tech), Deverell Biggs (Juco, reshirted last year), and Walter Pitchford (Florida) all in the team's top four in scoring and rebounding. Perhaps Nebraska is taking a page out of Iowa State's and becoming transfer U. No just kidding.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Purdue beat Boston College 88-67 in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, and I feel confident in saying that's the first good thing they've done all year. Really. Despite being 8-2, before beating BC and following that up by beating Eastern Michigan this weekend, the Boilers wins were all over teams outside the Top 208 with four of those wins by less than double figures. One loss was fine (to Oklahoma State) but the other was pretty wretched (to Washington State).
What's gone wrong? They're just thoroughly mediocre as Matt Painter has been unable to bring in top tier talent lately. Nine of the twelve Big 10 teams could be consider elite offensively or defensively, but Purdue (along with Northwestern and Nebraska) is just blah. The Boilers are playing at a lightning quick pace, their fastest ever under Painter, perhaps due to their overall lack of size, but it's not translating to easy baskets, and they're giving up way too many easy ones on the other end. Purdue is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. They're really bad.
12. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I cannot think of a single good thing to say about Northwestern this year other than that they probably have a really good combined IQ. They've basically been crushed by every single decent team they've played so far while sneaking wins against crap teams. This is how it's going: Northwestern is ranked #140 overall by kenpom's advanced metrics. The next worst team in the Big Ten is Nebraska all the way up at #92. There isn't a worse team in the ACC. There's just one worse in the Pac-12 and Big 12, and two worse in the Big East. They've been one of the worst teams in major conference basketball.
They're the worst team in the conference in offensive efficiency, and the second worst in defensive efficiency. I thought the return of Drew Crawford would mean this team would have an outside chance to rise to the level of competitive, and he's been fine, but the rest of the team has been crap. Dave Sobolewski has been absolute garbage, Alex Olah is putting up embarrassing rebounding numbers for a seven footer, and Tre Demps is still a terrible chucker. Chris Collins will likely find a way to make the program more competitive, and he's already got a nice recruiting class for next season coming in, but this year is the kind of year where a team with tournament aspirations needs to sweep Northwestern. Which, as you know, means the Gophers are headed to splitsville. Come on Pitino, break that curse that I just made up.
So that's where we stand with just a few short weeks to go until conference play. I see three teams with a shot at a #1 seed, two others who are almost certain to get bids, and then a small group of teams who will be around the bubble. I think the Gophers and Indiana are a step ahead of teams like Illinois and Penn State, but as usual it's going to come down to who defends home court and who can steal some games. I'm happy to say I see the Gophers right in the mix for a bid at this point, so hopefully that keeps up. Should be a pretty entertaining league this year with a lot of teams very close together in talent and skill level. Avoiding losses to the bottom three teams will be key.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Big Ten Preview
Here we are on the eve of the Gophers kicking off their exhibition season. Given that, here is a bunch of words that will serve as my official Big Ten preview. I already talked about the Big Ten like a hundred years ago, and here's a post where I kind of talk about NCAA basketball this year in general, so this will be the capper on the trilogy of posts that form my NCAA preview this year. Man, I feel like I'm writing an epic or something. Everybody knows the best things come in trilogies. I dare you to find something other than Twilight that proves this wrong. Indiana Jones tried to make a fourth something and it bombed. Trilogies are the best, ergo, I am the best. Here are my thoughts, teams in order of my predicted finish.
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. It's almost unfair. The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year. That's at least three NBA players. For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).
If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics. Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there. Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots. Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas. Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on. It's just not fair. Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us. Which is nice.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas. Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount. Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.
So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft. Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year? Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise. Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier. He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like. Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:
Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.? Come on, you know you see it. And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player. I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.
I can't wait to watch this guy. I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.
3. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I've written too much about Wisconsin already, which you can see if you click on the two links above, but I can't help but be really high on them this year as much as it pains me. I think their starting guards are absolutely perfect for Bo's system this year. His boring, boring system of boring opponents to death by being so boring. Then add in Sam Dekker, who brings a level of athleticism and ability the Badgers haven't had since, geez, maybe Devin Harris, and there's a whole new wrinkle to the offense. The biggest knock on the Badger offense, besides being so boring, is they get over reliant on the 3-point shot and don't penetrate the lane at times. Well Dekker can solve all that by being unguardable.
Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed. Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville. Yes, I hated writing every word of this.
4. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. People seem to think Michigan is going to be really, really good this year and I suppose that might end up being true, but I think they're more of a good not great team. I mean, it's a pretty big deal to lose your two starting guards to the NBA, especially when they pretty much dominated the ball all the time. Going from Tre Burke to one of Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, or a freshman is going to be a bit startling, even if Derrick Walton is one of the top PGs incoming this year.
I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team? Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one). Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from? If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year. So yeah. I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year. Possibly Penn State too. You'll see why.
5. IOWA HAWKEYES. The trendy pick for not just Big Ten sleeper but national sleeper, and why not seeing as how they basically have the same team from last year and they were very, very good the second half of the season making it all the way to the NIT Championship game. Last year Iowa was pretty good at just about everything except shooting where they were just dreadful, ranking 308th in the NCAA in 3-point percentage. That's pretty much going to decide just how good they can be, and with the same team back things don't look great, but they do everything else well enough that I think 5th is just about right.
One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit. It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s). Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up. They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad. Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100. And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.
One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team. I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe. Also this Peter Jok guy? The one newcomer this year for Iowa? Holy cow what a gunner. He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7). Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need. Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.
6. INDIANA HOOSIERS. Indiana, like Michigan, is another team I feel is getting a little bit too much national love based on how gutted they are to last season. They do bring in a hell of a recruiting class (four ESPN Top 100 guys) and they actually complement what they bring back, but I guess, again like Michigan, I'm just hesitant to throw my opinion behind a team with so many questions. Besides the four new guys you've got Yogi Ferrell who can't shoot, Will Sheehey who is kind of a spaz, and a bunch of guys who played very limited minutes last year.
Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around. Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess. The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden. Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson. Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is. Because it's true. [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana. I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]
7. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. This is the team,
outside the Gophers, I'm having the hardest time ranking, and I think,
like the Gophers, it's because my emotions keep getting in the way.
See, I love guys like Tim Frazier and want them to do well. When Talor
Battle was at Penn State (and no, this is not some kind of Penn State
phenomenon) I desperately wanted him to do well and carry his team to
the NCAA tournament - which he did only to be beaten by some Temple
jerks. Obviously putting them 7th, and I think this is pretty much
their ceiling, means I don't think Frazier is going to make it, but if
he's 100% back and everything gels perfectly they could do it.
It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team. Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).
8. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover). But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.
You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get? Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get? Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them. The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team. Here's hoping they make it.
9. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Hey you know what's cool about Illinois? Besides nothing? They're another team who has already played an exhibition game this season, and since there are tons of questions about how the team's going to shake out maybe we can learn a little something from that box score. Such as how Tracy Abrams, the point guard, led the team in shot attempts. Oh what an Illinois thing. Seriously, Chester Frazier must be rolling in his grave looking at the line of shoot first point guards who have populated that back court since he graduated. Well the line is just two, but they've both been extra annoying so it seems longer.
This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season. It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck. Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while? No.
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. This is a team that for some reason, probably because I like the dudes at Sippin' on Purple, I kept wanting to rank higher but then I slapped myself in the face and looked closer and was like gross. After being right on the verge of that elusive first ever NCAA bid for a couple years, they took a step back last season (a Drew Crawford injury will do that) and finished 13-19 (4-14 in conference) and finally fired their coach. Oh, what's that? You didn't know Northwestern has a new basketball coach well you should since he's a former Dukie which means it's all anybody can talk about.
But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way. I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff. The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt. Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard. That's pretty much all the positives. Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good. And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy. Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.
I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately. If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens). Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here. In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007. Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball? Yes.
12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. I wrote about 11 teams, took my kids trick-r-treating, and boy am I tired. Yet here is Nebraska staring me right in my stupid face. I think we all believe that at some point Tim Miles will get Nebraska turned around and at least making them competitive. This is not that year.
After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch. Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them. Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn? Yeah, that didn't happen all that often. This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand. According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles. So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year. Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!
 |
| Big fan of this behavior |
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. It's almost unfair. The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year. That's at least three NBA players. For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).
If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics. Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there. Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots. Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas. Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on. It's just not fair. Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us. Which is nice.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas. Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount. Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.
So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft. Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year? Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise. Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier. He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like. Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:
Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.? Come on, you know you see it. And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player. I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.
I can't wait to watch this guy. I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.
 |
| That's a beer bong coming in from the right side there. |
Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed. Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville. Yes, I hated writing every word of this.
 |
| This seems like a lot of teeth. |
I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team? Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one). Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from? If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year. So yeah. I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year. Possibly Penn State too. You'll see why.
 |
| I still hate Iowa, but this is a good argument it it's favor |
One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit. It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s). Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up. They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad. Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100. And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.
One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team. I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe. Also this Peter Jok guy? The one newcomer this year for Iowa? Holy cow what a gunner. He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7). Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need. Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.
 |
| Indiana was surprisingly lacking in pictures. |
Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around. Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess. The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden. Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson. Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is. Because it's true. [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana. I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]
 |
| I like her she seems smart. |
It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team. Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).
8. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover). But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.
You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get? Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get? Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them. The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team. Here's hoping they make it.
 |
| The pillow says Illinois. Nice microwave. |
This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season. It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck. Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while? No.
 |
| The website said these were Northwestern girls. Good enough for me. |
But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way. I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff. The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt. Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard. That's pretty much all the positives. Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good. And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy. Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.
I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately. If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens). Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here. In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007. Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball? Yes.
 |
| Bottom. |
After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch. Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them. Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn? Yeah, that didn't happen all that often. This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand. According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles. So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year. Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
