Guess what fuckers? I may be back. I may also not be back. I am unsure. However since I can't quite get in the mood to care about college basketball this year, maybe writing up some basic stuff will get me motivated again. Who knows. And what better way than to write a Big Ten Preview, using a magazine as my sole source of information? This should be terrible.
1. INDIANA HOOSIERS. Don't worry, there's no doubt Tom Crean will screw everything else and the Hoosiers will underachieve because that's just what he does, but I like the team in general. They have a super nice little big man/guard combo in James Blackmon and Thomas Bryant, and any time you have two players on the same team that make me think how sweet that team would be on NBA Jam you know I'm going to overrate them. Plus I think I read somewhere that this Anunoby guy is suppose to like, make a leap or something. If Crean didn't screw him all up already.
2. WISCONSIN BADGERS. Ugh. Gross. The entire team is back from last year to be boring and white, but they weren't terrible so I suppose they're probably the favorite to win the conference. At least Greg Gard doesn't seem nearly as loathsome as Bo Ryan was. Still pretty loathsome though. Just like that traitor Illlikainenen. I confess that I do like watching Nigel Hayes though. I actually kind of hope he finally has a three point shot figured out, because that would be fun to watch. I feel icky. 80% of this team is voting for Trump.
3. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. I actually already put down a long shot future wager on them to win the NCAA title at like 66-1, so I gotta stick with it. Yeah, it's probably a dumb bet but that's why it's a longshot. But here's the thing I like. Remember year after year after year, Thad Matta somehow manages to pull in one of the best classes in the country. Like every year. And the really good guys like D'Angelo Russell and DeShaun Thomas eventually leave early for the draft. But all those other guys stick around, and now they're sophomores and juniors and seniors. There's a whole group of pretty good players here. If one (or more!) can step up a bit and become an actually like, super good player this could end up a really good team. Or I'm a big fat idiot.
4. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Last year they had three big fat tall guys and things went alright. This year they have two big fat tall guys and that might even work out better since Caleb Swanigen and Isaac Haas (too many As!!) can ball. But they still don't have a backcourt and I don't think they have since Lewis Jackson, who couldn't shoot. But they have Spike Albrecht you say? I still don't get why this is/was a big deal because, spoiler alert, Albrecht sucks. He had one good half against Louisville on national tv and suddenly he's good? He's terrible. A benchwarmer who got hot, went back to warming benches, and then transferred since his coach knew he sucked. Now he's going to suck for a new team. What a huge story!
5. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. This is a weird team for Izzo. He has a killer recruiting class and he's going to need it since there's nothing else here. He has Tum Tum Nairn, who wouldn't shoot the ball if you paid him, and Eron Harris, who wouldn't stop shooting if you cut his arms off, and then like, a bunch of supposedly good freshman. I know putting them fifth is just me falling for the hype of POTENTIAL and UPSIDE, but every other team in this league freaking sucks. I'm serious. Every team after this one is just terrible.
6. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. You know who doesn't suck though? Melo Trimble. He's going to be on a bad team, but he's good enough to pull them up this high. I expect him to shoot approximately one zillion times this year. That is all I can write about Maryland because nobody knows anything else about any of these guys and if they say they do they're lying.
7. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Malcolm Hill also doesn't suck, and also will be in the player of the year hunt. The difference between he and Trimble is that Hill has a few players back that I'm familiar with. So why are they below Maryland? Because I'm tremendously inconsistent. Looking at this roster Tracy Abrams is probably already hurt again, I liked this Mike Thorne guy before he got hurt, and Maverick Morgan has always been a player who existed. They have Leron Black too, who I remember was supposed to be a stud but obviously that hasn't worked out too well at this point, but like Nickelback says "It's never too late."
8. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. They could be higher if they managed to not get anybody hurt, which seems unlikely. Caris LeVert basically missed his last two seasons here, and Gary Walton was hurt for what seemed like the entire year two seasons ago and I know this because I had him on my fantasy team. Zak Irvin hasn't missed as much time as those guys, but he's been absolutely atrocious and I remember reading it had to do with some injury. Look, I'm not saying Jon Beilein is intentionally hurting his players, but I'm not NOT saying it either.
9. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. This is far more optimistic than most predictions out there, but it's my blog so I can do whatever I want. Once you get down here most of these teams are terrible. Like really terrible, so it wouldn't be hard for one of them to jump up and get as high as 8 or 9 and why not the Gopehrs? They have more experience coming back then the majority of the teams below them, a better recruiting class, and a couple supposedly impact transfers. So there's upside. I think a lot of this season depends on Pitino's coaching. The first year he came here he did a lot of interesting things, particularly on offense, that were refreshing after watching Tubby's teams run nothing but flex over and over again. Then, for some reason, that died and I couldn't ascertain if they were running any set play at all on most of the possessions. That works when you have a loaded, athletic, smart team. Even though I like most of this team, they certainly aren't that. So let's run some plays! Have some fun! Finish ninth!
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I have no doubt one year soon Northwestern will finally break through and make the NCAA Tournament, but I'll believe when I see it. Every time they get close they blow it. And since they wear purple might as well make the ole Vikings comparison here. But there's no doubt they've risen above perennial bottom feeder status. The big recruiting splash guy Vic Law looked good his freshman year before missing last year with an injury and I assume he's back. They probably have a big doofy foreign big guy I can make fun of/fall in love with, and Bryant McIntosh is somehow a really, really good player. He's so punchable he probably should have gone to Duke, but he's really good.
11. IOWA HAWKEYES. If you were a reader of this blog, you may remember at once point I was going to do a thing where I kept track of the best chuckers in the country. That, and everything really, fell by the wayside, but I've always remember Peter Jok because he popped up on my list because he had a pretty insane usage rate for a bench player while not being a very good shooter. Well guess what? Everyone is gone from Iowa except for him. Now, last year he kept a pretty high shot rate but was actually an excellent shooter, but with nobody else out there to draw defensive attention I'm predicting he goes back to crappy. Crappy, but high volume. Buckle up.
12. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. The only thing I know about Penn State this year is that their best player is Shep Garner, and that makes me smile because his name is Shep. You know who else's name was Shep? The weirdo creepy security guard from Above the Rim who played basketball against air with no ball because he once accidentally killed his best friend. But how can you go against someone who can do this?
You can't! And he's in work clothes! Man, Penn State should really go get this guy.
13. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Rutgers was bad last year. Like really, really bad. Except of course when they spanked the Gophers, which was a really fun game to watch. They have a large chunk of the team back, which is one hand is good because in theory players get better from year to year, but on the other hand is bad because they were really, really bad last season. At least they're interesting. Interesting in that they are wildly inefficient and technically horrible and making baskets, but at the same time play at a really fast pace and put up a whole bunch of shots, while also playing zero defense and if they do manage to make the opponent miss they very rarely get the rebound! In other words, it's fun to watch other teams light them up. Not the Gophers, of course, but other teams.
14. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Thank god Petteway and Shields are gone and the Huskers can go back to sucking like they're supposed to. We didn't invite Nebraska to the Big Ten to be mildly competitive at basketball, we invited them to be good at football and fight to not be in last place in basketball every year. I was getting pretty sick of them not being completely dreadful and going after many of the same recruits the Gophers were. Now the natural order of things can be restored. Also pretty sick of Tim Miles at this point.
Well there you have it. My completely accurate and well researched predictions for the big ten this season. As far as this blog, I have no idea how often I'll be posting. Maybe after most games. Maybe never again. NOBODY KNOWS!
Showing posts with label Ohio State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ohio State. Show all posts
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Monday, January 5, 2015
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Ohio State
Because the schedule says they have to the Gophers are going to play Ohio State on Tuesday night and they are going to get killed. The Gophers do one thing well on defense - create turnovers - and they suck at everything else. Well the Buckeyes don't really turn the ball over and they shoot the ball at an incredible rate if you prefer the ball going in the basket. They hit 41% from three and 58% from two which rounds out to the third best shooting team in the entire country by effective field goal percentage. Does this really sound like a team the Gophers beat?
Did you watch these guys the last two games? Unfortunately I did, other than the 10 minute stretch I fell asleep during the Maryland game because I was really sick. So sick I couldn't even drink. Oof. Anyway, the Gophers press the shit out of you and try to create turnovers and when it works it's glorious. When it doesn't, however, there are open shots all over the place and you have to hope the other team misses more than they should. That's not going to happen against Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have three guys in the top 254 in the country in effective field goal percentage. D'Angelo Russell shoots the ball so much he'd be a great chucker if he didn't make everything, Sam Thompson decided he is in fact not Rodney Williams 2.0 and has decided to make a ton of shots, and Marc Loving defied my prediction and is, in fact, awesome at making the ball go in the hole.
Six of the other seven guys who play would actually also all rank in the top 254 if they played and/or shot more. Amir Williams, Jea'Sean Tate, Trey McDonald, and Anthony Lee make everything they shoot because they know what shots they should take, Kam Williams is some kind of deadeye shooter, and Keita Bates-Diop is 6-7 and shoots 62% from two and 44% from three. The one guy who is a little bit of a suspect shooter is Shannon Scott the world's greatest defender who is one of the few guards in the conference who could shut down Dre Mathieu and who has a world class assist rate because he's really good at setting up all these good shooters for easy shots.
Pretty simple equation for this one. Gophers give up a ton of easy shots, Ohio State hits all easy shots. The Gophers would have to score a ton to keep this one close, but Ohio State has no real defensive weaknesses so I'm not seeing how that happens. Short of the Gophers creating a ton of turnovers, which not even Louisville could do against these guys, this is a bloodbath.
Ohio State 80, Minnesota 56.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #2 Ohio State Buckeyes
In typical Thad Matta fashion the Buckeyes lose a ton from last year's team. The three top scorers from last year are gone in LaQuinton Ross (15.2 ppg, also led the team in rebounding), Lenzelle Smith (11.0ppg, also led in 3-pointers), and annoying yet admittedly valuable Aaron Craft (9.8 ppg, also led in assists and steals). I mean, that's a team that's been gutted. Unfortunately, in true Thad Matta fashion, Ohio State is going to be loaded again anyway. The #1 ranked recruiting class in the conference this year (#8 nationally) will join the #2 class last year (on a per player, basis) along with the probably top available transfer who is immediately eligible and the Buckeyes will keep rolling. Great.
The one guy who could be fun to watch is Marc Loving, who is going to end up near the top of my B10 Chucker Power Ratings if I actually end up doing that which I plan on but I'm pretty lazy. Loving, a 6-7 wing who ranked as the 62nd best recruit in 2013 averaged about 5 points per game last season in 11 minutes per game. More importantly, he took 23% of the Buckeyes' shots when he was on the floor last season while shooting 37% from the floor including just 26% from three. I don't want to get too excited here since there is so much other talent here that could end up screwing this up, but those numbers are fantastic indicators when it comes to Chucker potential, which we all know is the second most entertaining thing that can happen in basketball behind Circus Ball. The departure of LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith, and Aaron Craft opens up 426 shots from lasts season. I think Loving has real potential to reach 30% of the team's shots when he's on the court, a number reached only by Ross and Terran Petteway last season, though more efficiently. This has a chance to be a truly special season.
Of course there are plenty of people who will try to get in the way of that and help the Buckeyes win games more efficiently. There are the returning contributors: center Amir Williams (8pts/6rebs/2blks per) who is kind of a stiff offensively but is a defensive force, wing Sam Thompson (8pts/3rebs) who is crazy athletic but is kind of Rodney Williams-ish in that he's still waiting to put all that talent together, and point guard Shannon Scott (8pts/3.5asts/2stls) who was overshadowed by Craft but might actually have been a better defensively. It wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys ended up leading the Buckeyes in scoring since they all have the talent and the opportunity is there. If I'm guessing I'd put Scott the most likely to break out and Williams the least, but nothing would surprise me.
Then there's the freshman: Kameron Williams (#58 overall/#13 shooting guard in 2013), Jae'Sean Tate (#28/#8 small forward in '14), Keita Bates-Diop (#22/#6 small forward), and especially De'Angelo Russell (#13/#1 shooting guard). I mean, I agree that's an annoying amount of punctuation in the middle of those names, but that is a damn talented group being added to an already talented group. Russell could be a one and done type of talent, and with Diop and Loving both at 6-7 they'll have a ton of positional flexibility. If the freshman come together quickly enough and the returnees are improved that's one hell of a top 8, and considering Thad Matta generally goes only six or seven deep this team is plenty talented.
Oh, right, and in case you forgot they also signed transfer Anthony Lee from Temple who will be immediately eligible thanks to that graduate transfer rule that is well intentioned but is really just taken advantage of as a loophole for players who outperform initial expectations to jump to better schools. Lee is a 6-9 power forward who averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds for the Owls last season and was pretty much regarded as the top available transfer on the market this offseason after putting up eleven double-doubles last year. So the Buckeyes second five will probably be Williams (#58 freshman - redshirt), Tate (#28 freshman), Diop (#22 freshman), Loving (sophomore, #62 last year), and Trey McDonald (senior center). That's probably a top 5 Big 10 team right there. These guys just don't stop.
Oh, and they already have three Top 100 guys signed for next season. Good stuff.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
The one guy who could be fun to watch is Marc Loving, who is going to end up near the top of my B10 Chucker Power Ratings if I actually end up doing that which I plan on but I'm pretty lazy. Loving, a 6-7 wing who ranked as the 62nd best recruit in 2013 averaged about 5 points per game last season in 11 minutes per game. More importantly, he took 23% of the Buckeyes' shots when he was on the floor last season while shooting 37% from the floor including just 26% from three. I don't want to get too excited here since there is so much other talent here that could end up screwing this up, but those numbers are fantastic indicators when it comes to Chucker potential, which we all know is the second most entertaining thing that can happen in basketball behind Circus Ball. The departure of LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith, and Aaron Craft opens up 426 shots from lasts season. I think Loving has real potential to reach 30% of the team's shots when he's on the court, a number reached only by Ross and Terran Petteway last season, though more efficiently. This has a chance to be a truly special season.
Of course there are plenty of people who will try to get in the way of that and help the Buckeyes win games more efficiently. There are the returning contributors: center Amir Williams (8pts/6rebs/2blks per) who is kind of a stiff offensively but is a defensive force, wing Sam Thompson (8pts/3rebs) who is crazy athletic but is kind of Rodney Williams-ish in that he's still waiting to put all that talent together, and point guard Shannon Scott (8pts/3.5asts/2stls) who was overshadowed by Craft but might actually have been a better defensively. It wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys ended up leading the Buckeyes in scoring since they all have the talent and the opportunity is there. If I'm guessing I'd put Scott the most likely to break out and Williams the least, but nothing would surprise me.
Then there's the freshman: Kameron Williams (#58 overall/#13 shooting guard in 2013), Jae'Sean Tate (#28/#8 small forward in '14), Keita Bates-Diop (#22/#6 small forward), and especially De'Angelo Russell (#13/#1 shooting guard). I mean, I agree that's an annoying amount of punctuation in the middle of those names, but that is a damn talented group being added to an already talented group. Russell could be a one and done type of talent, and with Diop and Loving both at 6-7 they'll have a ton of positional flexibility. If the freshman come together quickly enough and the returnees are improved that's one hell of a top 8, and considering Thad Matta generally goes only six or seven deep this team is plenty talented.
Oh, right, and in case you forgot they also signed transfer Anthony Lee from Temple who will be immediately eligible thanks to that graduate transfer rule that is well intentioned but is really just taken advantage of as a loophole for players who outperform initial expectations to jump to better schools. Lee is a 6-9 power forward who averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds for the Owls last season and was pretty much regarded as the top available transfer on the market this offseason after putting up eleven double-doubles last year. So the Buckeyes second five will probably be Williams (#58 freshman - redshirt), Tate (#28 freshman), Diop (#22 freshman), Loving (sophomore, #62 last year), and Trey McDonald (senior center). That's probably a top 5 Big 10 team right there. These guys just don't stop.
Oh, and they already have three Top 100 guys signed for next season. Good stuff.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Friday, January 17, 2014
Gophers 63, Ohio State 53
I had really hoped the Gophers would manage to snag one win out of this brutal four game stretch, and here it is - so now I hope they can get two. Sure, this win loses a little bit of luster since it was Ohio State's third straight loss, but they're going to be fine and this will still end up as a big time signature win at the end of the year.
Once again, 10 things I liked and didn't like about the game:
1. I never thought I'd type this sentence this season, but the Gophers dominated the inside. How good was Eliason yesterday? No, his footwork is never going to make you think of Olajuwon, but he's managed to harness his post up game into something good enough to at least make defenses pay attention to him, and his rebounding and defense have been absolutely top notch this year to the point where he has a legitimate case as Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year if they hadn't already decided to give it to Aaron Craft before the season started. Also have to mention Mo Walker last night, who did more good for this team in a 60 second span than he has the rest of his career combined. I knew Ohio State had some issues in the paint but Amir Williams is Rickert-soft, and the Gophers bigs made the Buckeyes pay.
2. The half-court offense was top notch. I said the Gophers would need to take advantage in transition if they were going to try to compete, but once again it shows why I'm not a coach and instead just write about basketball while drunk. I was concerned the Gophers would do that thing where they rely on the 3-ball in the half court and with OSU's perimeter defense that was never going to work. Well it didn't work as they made just 3, but they didn't rely on it either, shooting only 14. Instead they worked the ball around, were more patient than I can remember this team being - ever - and found good shots to where they shot 64% on two-point shots. 64%!!!! That's insane. Great game.
3. I don't think I'll ever feel comfortable with the power forward spot. Oto had a decent game, and I do like that he seems to have become the dude on the team who won't take any shit from anybody (something about having an Eastern Europeaner as the "enforcer" feels right), but it seems just about impossible for me to feel comfortable when he's in the game. What's worse, is that I actually audibly groan when he's taken out because King is even worse. I guess what I'm saying is, screw you NCAA for not giving us our Buckles (averaging 13 and 9 for FIU).
4. The defensive game plan was solid too. The pressure was soft with little to no trapping, which is a good plan against Craft and Shannon Scott if you're going to insist on pressing at all (and we know Pitino does) and half court was strictly zone, forcing the Buckeyes to beat you from the outside. I mentioned in my preview that this was a good plan, and it worked well with solid rotations in most cases and good overall fundamental defense. Their was a bit of an issue with LaQuinton Ross getting the ball at the free throw line and being able to score from there (he had 22) but they didn't let Craft or Scott beat them with penetration for the most part and the rebounded very well. Excellent game on both ends, both in planning and execution.
5. Craft and Scott are as good as advertised defensively. For all the hype I still came away impressed. Very quick feet, fundamentally sound, and both have about the quickest hands I can remember seeing. They also both have the basketball smarts to "jump routes" for lack of a better term, and each did it with success last night. I was also impressed with Craft's ability to go over a screen but slip between his man and the screener so he doesn't give up any ground. One other thing I noticed was that when the man they're guarding picks up the ball to pass sometimes rather than jump at him they'll jump back to try to get into the passing lane from close up, not every time, but it's not something I can recall seeing many guards do.
6. Daquein McNeil has clearly jumped Maverick in the rotation. Once again McNeil got the playing time that could have gone to Ahanmisi, and it's clear at this point that Pitino prefers the freshman. Could simply be he knows neither of them is great now, but McNeil figures into his future plans while Mav is gone after this season. McNeil certainly looks every bit the part of a freshman playing in the Big Ten for the first time, but to be fair most of the time so does Maverick. All I know is Dawger thinks it should be Mav, which pretty much tells me that going with McNeil in those spots is the absolute right move.
7. I have no idea what's going on with Austin Hollins. He did finally seem to snap out of his funk or whatever when he got his own rebound off a missed free throw and put it back in, later making a couple more FTs and getting a key steal, but he just looked lost out there for much of this game and really outside of the Purdue game hasn't been much of a factor in Big Ten play - or at least not a positive factor. At this point he seems to be having trouble with basic skills like dribbling and catching, and it's really weird. I don't know if it's a confidence issue or what, but given that Pitino seems to have raised the confidence level of pretty much every other player that seems unlikely. I'm going to chalk it up to he's pressing a bit given it's his senior year, and assume at some point the real Austin Hollins comes back. That would be helpful.
8. Did you ever think a late signing, 5-9 Juco point guard would be this good? I know I didn't, but thank god for the Honey Gopher who has clearly taken the point guard position over and allowed Dre Hollins to move to the #2, a move that helps the team immensely. There was a string there in the second half when it looked like Ohio State might be making a move, but Mathieu hit a couple of short jumpers in order to keep the Gophers ahead - as big as Mo's big stretch was, Mathieu's might have been even bigger. His assist to Dre to hit that monster three towards the end of the game was a thing of beauty, and a sign of a perfect match of player to coach as, in reality, the best move may have been to slow things down and run clock, but Mathieu has the freedom to run and create, and it worked to perfection. He's one of the most fun players to watch I can remember in a while. If you ever hear anyone say that Honey Gopher needs to slow down or play more in control I'm going to need you to hit them in the face with a shovel. Please. I don't ask you for much.
9. Turnovers remain an issue. 18 turnovers and a 29% turnover rate is absolutely horrendous, and pulling out a win despite those numbers just shows how well every other facet of the game went for the Gophers last night. In their five Big Ten games the Gophers are turning the ball over 21.8% of the time, dead last in the conference. This might be skewed a bit because the Gophers have already played the top two defenses in the conference in Michigan State and Ohio State, but no doubt this is a major concern.
10. An NCAA bid now becomes a very reasonable goal. The Gophers are now 14-4 and 3-2 in conference play, with an RPI of 26 and SoS of 13 (per ESPN), and two wins already over RPI Top 25 teams (Ohio State, Florida State) - those are some pretty awesome numbers, and based on the fact that the SoS will probably go up rather than down and the RPI is so good right now, I'll say nine Big Ten wins gets the Gophers in. Simple math says that means six more victories. These games are there for the taking: @Nebraska, Northwestern, @Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, and Penn State. Those games will likely see the Gophers favored, and those are your six wins right there. There is also Purdue on the road which is certainly winnable. If the Gophers win all those they're in. If they lose one and win at Purdue they're in. And if they manage to win any of the other games, any at all, any other major upset, and it would take a pretty bad collapse to keep them out.
So, you know. Let's not do that.
Once again, 10 things I liked and didn't like about the game:
1. I never thought I'd type this sentence this season, but the Gophers dominated the inside. How good was Eliason yesterday? No, his footwork is never going to make you think of Olajuwon, but he's managed to harness his post up game into something good enough to at least make defenses pay attention to him, and his rebounding and defense have been absolutely top notch this year to the point where he has a legitimate case as Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year if they hadn't already decided to give it to Aaron Craft before the season started. Also have to mention Mo Walker last night, who did more good for this team in a 60 second span than he has the rest of his career combined. I knew Ohio State had some issues in the paint but Amir Williams is Rickert-soft, and the Gophers bigs made the Buckeyes pay.
2. The half-court offense was top notch. I said the Gophers would need to take advantage in transition if they were going to try to compete, but once again it shows why I'm not a coach and instead just write about basketball while drunk. I was concerned the Gophers would do that thing where they rely on the 3-ball in the half court and with OSU's perimeter defense that was never going to work. Well it didn't work as they made just 3, but they didn't rely on it either, shooting only 14. Instead they worked the ball around, were more patient than I can remember this team being - ever - and found good shots to where they shot 64% on two-point shots. 64%!!!! That's insane. Great game.
3. I don't think I'll ever feel comfortable with the power forward spot. Oto had a decent game, and I do like that he seems to have become the dude on the team who won't take any shit from anybody (something about having an Eastern Europeaner as the "enforcer" feels right), but it seems just about impossible for me to feel comfortable when he's in the game. What's worse, is that I actually audibly groan when he's taken out because King is even worse. I guess what I'm saying is, screw you NCAA for not giving us our Buckles (averaging 13 and 9 for FIU).
4. The defensive game plan was solid too. The pressure was soft with little to no trapping, which is a good plan against Craft and Shannon Scott if you're going to insist on pressing at all (and we know Pitino does) and half court was strictly zone, forcing the Buckeyes to beat you from the outside. I mentioned in my preview that this was a good plan, and it worked well with solid rotations in most cases and good overall fundamental defense. Their was a bit of an issue with LaQuinton Ross getting the ball at the free throw line and being able to score from there (he had 22) but they didn't let Craft or Scott beat them with penetration for the most part and the rebounded very well. Excellent game on both ends, both in planning and execution.
5. Craft and Scott are as good as advertised defensively. For all the hype I still came away impressed. Very quick feet, fundamentally sound, and both have about the quickest hands I can remember seeing. They also both have the basketball smarts to "jump routes" for lack of a better term, and each did it with success last night. I was also impressed with Craft's ability to go over a screen but slip between his man and the screener so he doesn't give up any ground. One other thing I noticed was that when the man they're guarding picks up the ball to pass sometimes rather than jump at him they'll jump back to try to get into the passing lane from close up, not every time, but it's not something I can recall seeing many guards do.
6. Daquein McNeil has clearly jumped Maverick in the rotation. Once again McNeil got the playing time that could have gone to Ahanmisi, and it's clear at this point that Pitino prefers the freshman. Could simply be he knows neither of them is great now, but McNeil figures into his future plans while Mav is gone after this season. McNeil certainly looks every bit the part of a freshman playing in the Big Ten for the first time, but to be fair most of the time so does Maverick. All I know is Dawger thinks it should be Mav, which pretty much tells me that going with McNeil in those spots is the absolute right move.
7. I have no idea what's going on with Austin Hollins. He did finally seem to snap out of his funk or whatever when he got his own rebound off a missed free throw and put it back in, later making a couple more FTs and getting a key steal, but he just looked lost out there for much of this game and really outside of the Purdue game hasn't been much of a factor in Big Ten play - or at least not a positive factor. At this point he seems to be having trouble with basic skills like dribbling and catching, and it's really weird. I don't know if it's a confidence issue or what, but given that Pitino seems to have raised the confidence level of pretty much every other player that seems unlikely. I'm going to chalk it up to he's pressing a bit given it's his senior year, and assume at some point the real Austin Hollins comes back. That would be helpful.
8. Did you ever think a late signing, 5-9 Juco point guard would be this good? I know I didn't, but thank god for the Honey Gopher who has clearly taken the point guard position over and allowed Dre Hollins to move to the #2, a move that helps the team immensely. There was a string there in the second half when it looked like Ohio State might be making a move, but Mathieu hit a couple of short jumpers in order to keep the Gophers ahead - as big as Mo's big stretch was, Mathieu's might have been even bigger. His assist to Dre to hit that monster three towards the end of the game was a thing of beauty, and a sign of a perfect match of player to coach as, in reality, the best move may have been to slow things down and run clock, but Mathieu has the freedom to run and create, and it worked to perfection. He's one of the most fun players to watch I can remember in a while. If you ever hear anyone say that Honey Gopher needs to slow down or play more in control I'm going to need you to hit them in the face with a shovel. Please. I don't ask you for much.
9. Turnovers remain an issue. 18 turnovers and a 29% turnover rate is absolutely horrendous, and pulling out a win despite those numbers just shows how well every other facet of the game went for the Gophers last night. In their five Big Ten games the Gophers are turning the ball over 21.8% of the time, dead last in the conference. This might be skewed a bit because the Gophers have already played the top two defenses in the conference in Michigan State and Ohio State, but no doubt this is a major concern.
10. An NCAA bid now becomes a very reasonable goal. The Gophers are now 14-4 and 3-2 in conference play, with an RPI of 26 and SoS of 13 (per ESPN), and two wins already over RPI Top 25 teams (Ohio State, Florida State) - those are some pretty awesome numbers, and based on the fact that the SoS will probably go up rather than down and the RPI is so good right now, I'll say nine Big Ten wins gets the Gophers in. Simple math says that means six more victories. These games are there for the taking: @Nebraska, Northwestern, @Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, and Penn State. Those games will likely see the Gophers favored, and those are your six wins right there. There is also Purdue on the road which is certainly winnable. If the Gophers win all those they're in. If they lose one and win at Purdue they're in. And if they manage to win any of the other games, any at all, any other major upset, and it would take a pretty bad collapse to keep them out.
So, you know. Let's not do that.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Ohio State
The Buckeyes are reeling, having lost two straight - on the road at Michigan State and at home to Iowa. With some coaches/teams you might say that this is a great time to play them, when they might not be sure what's going on with them and perhaps their confidence is shot. But this is Ohio State and Thad Matta, a team that's 15-2 and has won at least 29 games each of the last four seasons, and a team made up mostly of upperclassmen. They're going to be mighty pissed.
Iowa managed to score 84 points against Ohio State, which is pretty incredible considering how good Ohio State is when it comes to defense, ranking 7th in overall defensive efficiency. That's the first time the Buckeyes have given up that many points in almost two full seasons, and Iowa's 1.14 points per possession would rank Ohio State as a bottom 20 defense in the entire NCAA if that was a full season number. Iowa was able to turn a Buckeye team over quite, a feat considering Ohio State takes pretty good care of the basketball, and convert a lot of those turnovers into points. They also got into the paint and attacked the rim, shooting 55% from two (Ohio State allows just 43% shooting from two on the year). The Gophers have a chance at replicating the turnovers, but Ohio State's incredible perimeter defense has me concerned that they won't be able to score enough points to keep up with the Buckeyes.
Ohio State absolutely shuts down the three-point line, both by limiting looks overall and by playing tough enough defense that opponents only make 26.9% of their attempts (7th in the country). IOwa doesn't rely on the three and didn't against Ohio State, shredding them at the rim instead. The Gophers, as we know, are heavily reliant on the three pointer. Basically their offense matches up horribly against Ohio State. Additionally, the Gopher offense is heavily predicated on the guards making things happen with their three highest usage players (Draustin Hollins and the Honey Gopher) creating off penetration. Once again, Ohio State's defense is set up perfectly to defend against this with Aaron Craft (not overrated, despite how often you have to hear about him) and Shannon Scott (nearly as good as Craft, if not as fundamentally sound) guarding a team's main ballhandlers and Sam Thompson and Amir Williams in the middle to block shots. The Gophers are going to need to get transition opportunities and take advantage of them in order to score.
They should be able to get them, because offensively Ohio State is good but not great. They're very efficient on two pointers (54%), but struggle a bit from three (34%) despite taking a big percentage of their shots from behind the arc (36%, 91st in NCAA). If the Gophers play mainly zone, and I expect they will and they probably should, the hope would be the Buckeyes get into chucker mode and don't get hot. If so, the Gophers need to run and run fast on every miss, because that will be their best opportunity for transition offense and the Buckeyes don't hit the offensive glass all that well. Turnovers will likely be limited since Minnesota relies on steals quite a bit and Ohio State is the #1 team in the country at avoiding steals.
Personnel wise Ohio State is loaded with former high ranking recruits, and although none of them have become an offensive star they have seven guys who score between 7 and 13.6 points per game, and they play more like an NBA team when they have the ball, eschewing 2-point jump shots and either taking 3s or getting the ball to the rim. 6-8 swingman LaQuinton Ross is the closest thing they have to a go-to #1 option (leading scorer at 13.6ppg and only player with a real high shot %), and he's also the most likely to get lured into taking bad shots so hopefully that happens. 6-4 shooting guard Lenzelle Smith Jr. is the only other double digit scorer (12.2ppg) and he's one of the most efficient players in the conference because he avoids those two point jumpers (just 13% of his shots) choosing instead to shoot 3s (37% accuracy) or drive (61% on twos). Despite only hitting 20 points once this year, he's probably the guy who scares me the most.
The rest of the team kind of takes their offense where they can get it. Craft generally only shoots when he has either a wide open 3-pointer or can take it to the basket (9.1ppg), which he does often. Scott (8.3ppg) is really fast, and although he's more likely to force up an outside shot he also excels at getting to the rim. Amir Williams (9.6ppg) is pretty much the team's only post player and pretty much scores in the post and on offensive putbacks. He's also the team's best rebounder (6.7rpg) although Ohio State really rebounds by committee with all 6 players who play 20 or more minutes averaging 3+ boards per game. Sam Thompson (7.6ppg) will spend time in the paint as well, he's a Rodney Williams-like athlete with a better mid-range game. 6-7 freshman Marc Loving looks like he could be the next DeShaun Thomas with 7.0ppg in just 13 minutes per, and Amedeo Della Valle plays limited minutes (13mpg) but he's the closest thing Ohio State has to a shooter (37% from three, 68% of attempts from there) and against the Gophers zone we're certain to see him come in.
Vegas will likely have Ohio State as a 3-point favorite, and that seems about right to me. Iowa showed that Ohio State is beatable and the Gophers the ability to beat them. Run, attack the rim, hit the three when it's there, and limit dribble penetration by the Buckeyes and force them to become a jump shooting team. Maybe easier said than done, but Iowa was able to do these things and come away with a huge win, and the Gophers have shown against Syracuse and Michigan State that they can compete with some of the nation's best. Unfortunately, they've also shown against Syracuse and Michigan State that they can't close, and until they do I can't quite believe in them against a top tier opponent.
Ohio State 68, Minnesota 64
Iowa managed to score 84 points against Ohio State, which is pretty incredible considering how good Ohio State is when it comes to defense, ranking 7th in overall defensive efficiency. That's the first time the Buckeyes have given up that many points in almost two full seasons, and Iowa's 1.14 points per possession would rank Ohio State as a bottom 20 defense in the entire NCAA if that was a full season number. Iowa was able to turn a Buckeye team over quite, a feat considering Ohio State takes pretty good care of the basketball, and convert a lot of those turnovers into points. They also got into the paint and attacked the rim, shooting 55% from two (Ohio State allows just 43% shooting from two on the year). The Gophers have a chance at replicating the turnovers, but Ohio State's incredible perimeter defense has me concerned that they won't be able to score enough points to keep up with the Buckeyes.
Ohio State absolutely shuts down the three-point line, both by limiting looks overall and by playing tough enough defense that opponents only make 26.9% of their attempts (7th in the country). IOwa doesn't rely on the three and didn't against Ohio State, shredding them at the rim instead. The Gophers, as we know, are heavily reliant on the three pointer. Basically their offense matches up horribly against Ohio State. Additionally, the Gopher offense is heavily predicated on the guards making things happen with their three highest usage players (Draustin Hollins and the Honey Gopher) creating off penetration. Once again, Ohio State's defense is set up perfectly to defend against this with Aaron Craft (not overrated, despite how often you have to hear about him) and Shannon Scott (nearly as good as Craft, if not as fundamentally sound) guarding a team's main ballhandlers and Sam Thompson and Amir Williams in the middle to block shots. The Gophers are going to need to get transition opportunities and take advantage of them in order to score.
They should be able to get them, because offensively Ohio State is good but not great. They're very efficient on two pointers (54%), but struggle a bit from three (34%) despite taking a big percentage of their shots from behind the arc (36%, 91st in NCAA). If the Gophers play mainly zone, and I expect they will and they probably should, the hope would be the Buckeyes get into chucker mode and don't get hot. If so, the Gophers need to run and run fast on every miss, because that will be their best opportunity for transition offense and the Buckeyes don't hit the offensive glass all that well. Turnovers will likely be limited since Minnesota relies on steals quite a bit and Ohio State is the #1 team in the country at avoiding steals.
Personnel wise Ohio State is loaded with former high ranking recruits, and although none of them have become an offensive star they have seven guys who score between 7 and 13.6 points per game, and they play more like an NBA team when they have the ball, eschewing 2-point jump shots and either taking 3s or getting the ball to the rim. 6-8 swingman LaQuinton Ross is the closest thing they have to a go-to #1 option (leading scorer at 13.6ppg and only player with a real high shot %), and he's also the most likely to get lured into taking bad shots so hopefully that happens. 6-4 shooting guard Lenzelle Smith Jr. is the only other double digit scorer (12.2ppg) and he's one of the most efficient players in the conference because he avoids those two point jumpers (just 13% of his shots) choosing instead to shoot 3s (37% accuracy) or drive (61% on twos). Despite only hitting 20 points once this year, he's probably the guy who scares me the most.
The rest of the team kind of takes their offense where they can get it. Craft generally only shoots when he has either a wide open 3-pointer or can take it to the basket (9.1ppg), which he does often. Scott (8.3ppg) is really fast, and although he's more likely to force up an outside shot he also excels at getting to the rim. Amir Williams (9.6ppg) is pretty much the team's only post player and pretty much scores in the post and on offensive putbacks. He's also the team's best rebounder (6.7rpg) although Ohio State really rebounds by committee with all 6 players who play 20 or more minutes averaging 3+ boards per game. Sam Thompson (7.6ppg) will spend time in the paint as well, he's a Rodney Williams-like athlete with a better mid-range game. 6-7 freshman Marc Loving looks like he could be the next DeShaun Thomas with 7.0ppg in just 13 minutes per, and Amedeo Della Valle plays limited minutes (13mpg) but he's the closest thing Ohio State has to a shooter (37% from three, 68% of attempts from there) and against the Gophers zone we're certain to see him come in.
Vegas will likely have Ohio State as a 3-point favorite, and that seems about right to me. Iowa showed that Ohio State is beatable and the Gophers the ability to beat them. Run, attack the rim, hit the three when it's there, and limit dribble penetration by the Buckeyes and force them to become a jump shooting team. Maybe easier said than done, but Iowa was able to do these things and come away with a huge win, and the Gophers have shown against Syracuse and Michigan State that they can compete with some of the nation's best. Unfortunately, they've also shown against Syracuse and Michigan State that they can't close, and until they do I can't quite believe in them against a top tier opponent.
Ohio State 68, Minnesota 64
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Big Ten Hoops So Far
With the Holiday tournaments and B10/ACC Challenge behind us this a nice time to take a look around the league and see what's happened so far, and what we think we know about these teams. So let's do this, power ranking style of course because we are on the internet after all. As usual, all stats per kenpom.com.
1. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I told you dopes that as much as it pained me to say that Wisconsin would be really good this year, and it appears I may have actually underrated them. 10-0 right now with wins over top 100 kenpom teams St. Johns (67), Florida (13), Green Bay (87), Saint Louis (28), West Virginia (60), Virginia (19), and Marquette (45). That is freaking impressive and easily the best list of anybody in the Big Ten and maybe the nation but it's a lot of work to double check that so let's just run with it. At this point kenpom projects them to win every game the rest of the year other than @Michigan and @Iowa (they don't travel to Columbus or East Lansing), so we're looking at a possible 29-2 with a ton of good wins - a #1 seed for the Badgers?
It's the same formula they use every year - super slow pace of play, good defense, good rebounding, and efficient shooting. Frank Kaminsky is the newest big dumb slow fat white guy who has suddenly blossomed into a star under Bo Ryan and Sam Dekker has been as good as advertised. The one problem they might have is they aren't very deep with the five starters all playing 28+ minutes and no bench guys playing more than 15, and their big time reliance offensively on the three pointer. I suppose that's been their MO, so no need to worry too much. This is a really good Badger team and it sucks.
Shout out to #1 Badger fan Matty Wisconsin. Big fan, Yao Ming jersey wearer, and fastest beer chugger I've ever seen. And he's on twitter! @strykerpks. Check it. He follows @spaghettios and is a big fan of the Beer Stars.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. At 7-0 with two good wins (Maryland, Marquette) and two decent wins (Ohio, Wyoming) the Buckeyes haven't been seriously challenged (all wins by 10+) and they're doing it, no surprise, with their defense. OSU ranks #1 in total defensive efficiency, #3 in opponents effective field goal %, and #10 in turning their opponent over. Basically they will force turnovers all the time and when they don't it's really hard to make a shot against them.
Of course everyone expected Ohio State to be elite defensively, but the big question was how the Buckeyes would fare on offense with the loss of DeShaun Thomas. Everyone wondered who would step up, and although nobody has really stepped into his place is hasn't mattered because everybody has upped their game just a bit and they're doing it by committee - six players average between 9.0 and 11.4 points per game. It's weird to look at their stats because they only play nine guys - like, literally nine guys as only one other guy has played at all and only two games - and they all play 13+ minutes and all contribute.
I thought Ohio State would struggle this year on the offensive end and that would knock them down a peg, but they're doing just fine as a collective group. There may end up being some rebounding issues that could do them in, and they haven't played a truly great team (and won't until January) so there are still plenty of questions, but I'm impressed so far. Great coaching job by Thad Matta, and I probably should have seen that coming.
3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. I still think Sparty will probably end up the best team in this conference, but horrendous effort against North Carolina, particularly at home. When was the last time Michigan State was out rebounded that badly (49-38)? It helped that they shot so poorly, of course, and that's another good point because shooting just 40% from 2 is so bad you almost have to try to do that poorly, which would actually explain a lot about that game.
Obviously a loss to North Carolina doesn't wipe out all the good that the early win over Kentucky did, but they've struggled to pull away from teams all year and it's the kind of thing that could bite them in the ass come March. Letting Oklahoma, Columbia, and Portland hang around is really not great considering those are the exact type of teams that Michigan State is likely to face in the first round of the tournament. Of course, it's Tom Izzo here, so the team is likely to get better as the season goes on and I can't imagine an Izzo team ever getting bounced in the first round unless it's already happened and I don't remember and if it has don't remind me - I want to remember Izzo as I remember him, not all mixed up with facts and stuff. That's for nerds.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES. They were everybody's sleeper for this year, and they've more than lived up to that billing. Wins over Drake (#98), Xavier (#65), Notre Dame (#74), and an absolute stomping of UTEP (#90) make up a pretty good resume this early in the season, but Iowa's most impressive outing may have been their overtime loss to Villanova (#5). The Hawkeyes had a double digit lead well into the second half before Nova got white hot to go up 7 with four minute left before Iowa clawed back to tie it up.
Roy Marble looks like he's going to be one of the top players in the conference this year, Aaron White has suddenly morphed into a complete player, and transfer Jarrod Uthoff is way, way better than I ever expected. Those three have plenty of room to operate too, because the team's two point guards (Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell) both hate shooting and they don't really have a center. Well they have three, but they're all pretty horrible and are basically the poster children for not developing past your freshman year (seriously they may as well have been coached by Tubby). The Hawkeyes still don't shoot the ball very accurately, but they've done everything else so well this year that it's covered up that issue. Interested to see what happens down the road.
5. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. This is probably the hardest team to evaluate. They have three losses, but all are explainable (the neutral court loss to Charlotte is a little head scratching, but it's not like they're a bad team). Because of those losses (the other two were @Duke and @Iowa State) the only good win they have is against Florida State in overtime, and the rest are against scrubs. Granted, they've taken care of business against said scrubs and their advanced metrics look good (ranked #27 overall), but there's nothing truly impressive at all in the results, so I mostly have them at #5 based on the belief that they'll come around.
I expect they will mainly because they haven't struggled the way I expected after losing Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, in that they're taking care of the ball just fine (14th best in TO%). They're still missing out on that driving ability Burke and Hardaway had, although Nik Stauskas is doing his best to fill that role. Right now they only have three real offensive threats, and Glen Robinson seems to be regressing and I have trouble believing Caris LeVert is for real (mainly because of that terrible name). I expect Michigan to end up a Top 25 team, but I won't be shocked if they don't.
6. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I believe I had them at seven when I did my preseason rankings, so this says I'm impressed enough to move them up a spot, which I suppose is a good thing. I still have one jillion questions about this team, and unfortunately none of them are going to be answered until conference play starts in January because the next three opponents are pretty much worthless as a measuring tool. The rebounding and interior defense will likely continue to be an issue, but Drizzy Matheiu is better than I could have hoped and the guards are going to keep them in a bunch of games and maybe even manage to sneak out and upset or two. I still don't think this is quite an NCAA Tournament team, but it's getting closer. That win over Florida State impressed me. Looking forward to Big Ten play.
7. INDIANA HOOSIERS. I get this impression that people think Indiana is good and guess what? They really aren't. What have they done besides show everyone how big a chucker supposed "point guard" Yogi Ferrell really is? Ok, sure they played a great game against UCONN that went down to the wire. Ok, I'll give you that one. But then they got crushed by Syracuse and they have nothing else on the resume. The win against Washington sounds good, but the Huskies are absolutely terrible. The win over Stony Brook is probably their best win. I actually think the Hoosiers are less likely to bomb out than Michigan, but there are plenty of questions here.
Basically with so many players suddenly thrust into new roles with everything they lost last year the team is struggling with who fits where and how to play together. Thus they're turning the ball over at an alarming rate (21.5% of possessions, ranks 310th) and just not sharing the ball well (328th in assists per field goal). It probably does help when your point guard shoots all the time, but he's also their most efficient player so what do you do? They're very talented and very deep, so a great coach like Tom Crean I'm sure will eventually get this all straightened out.
Ha ha just kidding Crean sucks and is a terrible person and I hope he burns the program to the ground.
8. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Illinois has a nice shiny 8-1 record, but it's a completely empty 8-1 record. There isn't a single good win on that resume. A win over UNLV sounds good, until you realize that UNLV is a shitbox this year, and Valpo is the only other win they have that's even close to going to matter at the end of the year. They had a good chance at a quality win on the road against a somewhat frisky Georgia Tech team, but they let the Yellow Jackets finish the game on a 19-4 run so Illinois lost by three.
Despite a new coach and a whole new group of players they're still doing the traditional Illinois thing where they like to sit around and shoot jump shots. And, also a tradition at Illinois, they're not very good at having those jump shots go in. Luckily, thus far, they've been extremely good at rebounding their own misses, something that is unlikely to continue once we get into Big Ten play. They don't create turnovers at all, either, which means their only means of getting extra possessions is by those offensive boards, and, like I said earlier if you were paying attention, I doubt that keeps up against Big Ten teams.
9. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. I don't know what it is about my attraction to Penn State but I can't stop being infatuated. I'm like Freddie Prinze looking at Jessica Biel. No wait that one made sense. More like I'm some handsome devil like Ryan Gosling and I ended up falling in love with that lumpy chick from Girls. Penn State has all kinds of flaws and I shouldn't be attracted to their fat ass and busted teeth, but there are enough good things here that I keep overlooking those flaws and fixating on that great personality, sense of humor, and alcoholism.
Ok that was a pretty tortuous analogy, but the point is that Penn State is probably horrible but I love them anyway. A couple of really good guards including maybe the best one in the conference, a team that never turns the ball over and shoots well, a patchwork front court that fits together just well enough to be dangerous, and a horrible defense that ensures their games are going to entertaining. Then they get a sharp shooting transfer from Pitt eligible in the second semester. They haven't necessarily done anything impressive, but they do have wins over St. John's and LaSalle. I dunno, I'm rooting for them. WHAT'S WRONG WITH ME!??!?!
10. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Nebraska has actually been a pleasant surprise this year. Pleasant as in I, and many others, expected them to be completely horrible, while instead they've been somewhat competent. Wins over Miami and Georgia aren't great, but they're solid enough, and they've been competitive against good teams like Creighton, UAB, and UMass. The advanced metrics aren't great as they're the only Big 10 team outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (a near loss to Northern Illinois and they're 305 ranking doesn't help things), but they are looking better than they have the last couple of years.
Tai Webster, the much heralded freshman point guard from New Zealand, hasn't worked out as well as hoped yet as he struggles with his shot and turns the ball over far too frequently, but those are problems most freshman point guards deal with so there's no reason to panic. The Huskers have gotten solid play from their transfers, with Terran Petteway (Texas Tech), Deverell Biggs (Juco, reshirted last year), and Walter Pitchford (Florida) all in the team's top four in scoring and rebounding. Perhaps Nebraska is taking a page out of Iowa State's and becoming transfer U. No just kidding.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Purdue beat Boston College 88-67 in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, and I feel confident in saying that's the first good thing they've done all year. Really. Despite being 8-2, before beating BC and following that up by beating Eastern Michigan this weekend, the Boilers wins were all over teams outside the Top 208 with four of those wins by less than double figures. One loss was fine (to Oklahoma State) but the other was pretty wretched (to Washington State).
What's gone wrong? They're just thoroughly mediocre as Matt Painter has been unable to bring in top tier talent lately. Nine of the twelve Big 10 teams could be consider elite offensively or defensively, but Purdue (along with Northwestern and Nebraska) is just blah. The Boilers are playing at a lightning quick pace, their fastest ever under Painter, perhaps due to their overall lack of size, but it's not translating to easy baskets, and they're giving up way too many easy ones on the other end. Purdue is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. They're really bad.
12. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I cannot think of a single good thing to say about Northwestern this year other than that they probably have a really good combined IQ. They've basically been crushed by every single decent team they've played so far while sneaking wins against crap teams. This is how it's going: Northwestern is ranked #140 overall by kenpom's advanced metrics. The next worst team in the Big Ten is Nebraska all the way up at #92. There isn't a worse team in the ACC. There's just one worse in the Pac-12 and Big 12, and two worse in the Big East. They've been one of the worst teams in major conference basketball.
They're the worst team in the conference in offensive efficiency, and the second worst in defensive efficiency. I thought the return of Drew Crawford would mean this team would have an outside chance to rise to the level of competitive, and he's been fine, but the rest of the team has been crap. Dave Sobolewski has been absolute garbage, Alex Olah is putting up embarrassing rebounding numbers for a seven footer, and Tre Demps is still a terrible chucker. Chris Collins will likely find a way to make the program more competitive, and he's already got a nice recruiting class for next season coming in, but this year is the kind of year where a team with tournament aspirations needs to sweep Northwestern. Which, as you know, means the Gophers are headed to splitsville. Come on Pitino, break that curse that I just made up.
So that's where we stand with just a few short weeks to go until conference play. I see three teams with a shot at a #1 seed, two others who are almost certain to get bids, and then a small group of teams who will be around the bubble. I think the Gophers and Indiana are a step ahead of teams like Illinois and Penn State, but as usual it's going to come down to who defends home court and who can steal some games. I'm happy to say I see the Gophers right in the mix for a bid at this point, so hopefully that keeps up. Should be a pretty entertaining league this year with a lot of teams very close together in talent and skill level. Avoiding losses to the bottom three teams will be key.
1. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I told you dopes that as much as it pained me to say that Wisconsin would be really good this year, and it appears I may have actually underrated them. 10-0 right now with wins over top 100 kenpom teams St. Johns (67), Florida (13), Green Bay (87), Saint Louis (28), West Virginia (60), Virginia (19), and Marquette (45). That is freaking impressive and easily the best list of anybody in the Big Ten and maybe the nation but it's a lot of work to double check that so let's just run with it. At this point kenpom projects them to win every game the rest of the year other than @Michigan and @Iowa (they don't travel to Columbus or East Lansing), so we're looking at a possible 29-2 with a ton of good wins - a #1 seed for the Badgers?
It's the same formula they use every year - super slow pace of play, good defense, good rebounding, and efficient shooting. Frank Kaminsky is the newest big dumb slow fat white guy who has suddenly blossomed into a star under Bo Ryan and Sam Dekker has been as good as advertised. The one problem they might have is they aren't very deep with the five starters all playing 28+ minutes and no bench guys playing more than 15, and their big time reliance offensively on the three pointer. I suppose that's been their MO, so no need to worry too much. This is a really good Badger team and it sucks.
Shout out to #1 Badger fan Matty Wisconsin. Big fan, Yao Ming jersey wearer, and fastest beer chugger I've ever seen. And he's on twitter! @strykerpks. Check it. He follows @spaghettios and is a big fan of the Beer Stars.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. At 7-0 with two good wins (Maryland, Marquette) and two decent wins (Ohio, Wyoming) the Buckeyes haven't been seriously challenged (all wins by 10+) and they're doing it, no surprise, with their defense. OSU ranks #1 in total defensive efficiency, #3 in opponents effective field goal %, and #10 in turning their opponent over. Basically they will force turnovers all the time and when they don't it's really hard to make a shot against them.
Of course everyone expected Ohio State to be elite defensively, but the big question was how the Buckeyes would fare on offense with the loss of DeShaun Thomas. Everyone wondered who would step up, and although nobody has really stepped into his place is hasn't mattered because everybody has upped their game just a bit and they're doing it by committee - six players average between 9.0 and 11.4 points per game. It's weird to look at their stats because they only play nine guys - like, literally nine guys as only one other guy has played at all and only two games - and they all play 13+ minutes and all contribute.
I thought Ohio State would struggle this year on the offensive end and that would knock them down a peg, but they're doing just fine as a collective group. There may end up being some rebounding issues that could do them in, and they haven't played a truly great team (and won't until January) so there are still plenty of questions, but I'm impressed so far. Great coaching job by Thad Matta, and I probably should have seen that coming.
3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. I still think Sparty will probably end up the best team in this conference, but horrendous effort against North Carolina, particularly at home. When was the last time Michigan State was out rebounded that badly (49-38)? It helped that they shot so poorly, of course, and that's another good point because shooting just 40% from 2 is so bad you almost have to try to do that poorly, which would actually explain a lot about that game.
Obviously a loss to North Carolina doesn't wipe out all the good that the early win over Kentucky did, but they've struggled to pull away from teams all year and it's the kind of thing that could bite them in the ass come March. Letting Oklahoma, Columbia, and Portland hang around is really not great considering those are the exact type of teams that Michigan State is likely to face in the first round of the tournament. Of course, it's Tom Izzo here, so the team is likely to get better as the season goes on and I can't imagine an Izzo team ever getting bounced in the first round unless it's already happened and I don't remember and if it has don't remind me - I want to remember Izzo as I remember him, not all mixed up with facts and stuff. That's for nerds.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES. They were everybody's sleeper for this year, and they've more than lived up to that billing. Wins over Drake (#98), Xavier (#65), Notre Dame (#74), and an absolute stomping of UTEP (#90) make up a pretty good resume this early in the season, but Iowa's most impressive outing may have been their overtime loss to Villanova (#5). The Hawkeyes had a double digit lead well into the second half before Nova got white hot to go up 7 with four minute left before Iowa clawed back to tie it up.
Roy Marble looks like he's going to be one of the top players in the conference this year, Aaron White has suddenly morphed into a complete player, and transfer Jarrod Uthoff is way, way better than I ever expected. Those three have plenty of room to operate too, because the team's two point guards (Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell) both hate shooting and they don't really have a center. Well they have three, but they're all pretty horrible and are basically the poster children for not developing past your freshman year (seriously they may as well have been coached by Tubby). The Hawkeyes still don't shoot the ball very accurately, but they've done everything else so well this year that it's covered up that issue. Interested to see what happens down the road.
5. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. This is probably the hardest team to evaluate. They have three losses, but all are explainable (the neutral court loss to Charlotte is a little head scratching, but it's not like they're a bad team). Because of those losses (the other two were @Duke and @Iowa State) the only good win they have is against Florida State in overtime, and the rest are against scrubs. Granted, they've taken care of business against said scrubs and their advanced metrics look good (ranked #27 overall), but there's nothing truly impressive at all in the results, so I mostly have them at #5 based on the belief that they'll come around.
I expect they will mainly because they haven't struggled the way I expected after losing Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, in that they're taking care of the ball just fine (14th best in TO%). They're still missing out on that driving ability Burke and Hardaway had, although Nik Stauskas is doing his best to fill that role. Right now they only have three real offensive threats, and Glen Robinson seems to be regressing and I have trouble believing Caris LeVert is for real (mainly because of that terrible name). I expect Michigan to end up a Top 25 team, but I won't be shocked if they don't.
6. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I believe I had them at seven when I did my preseason rankings, so this says I'm impressed enough to move them up a spot, which I suppose is a good thing. I still have one jillion questions about this team, and unfortunately none of them are going to be answered until conference play starts in January because the next three opponents are pretty much worthless as a measuring tool. The rebounding and interior defense will likely continue to be an issue, but Drizzy Matheiu is better than I could have hoped and the guards are going to keep them in a bunch of games and maybe even manage to sneak out and upset or two. I still don't think this is quite an NCAA Tournament team, but it's getting closer. That win over Florida State impressed me. Looking forward to Big Ten play.
7. INDIANA HOOSIERS. I get this impression that people think Indiana is good and guess what? They really aren't. What have they done besides show everyone how big a chucker supposed "point guard" Yogi Ferrell really is? Ok, sure they played a great game against UCONN that went down to the wire. Ok, I'll give you that one. But then they got crushed by Syracuse and they have nothing else on the resume. The win against Washington sounds good, but the Huskies are absolutely terrible. The win over Stony Brook is probably their best win. I actually think the Hoosiers are less likely to bomb out than Michigan, but there are plenty of questions here.
Basically with so many players suddenly thrust into new roles with everything they lost last year the team is struggling with who fits where and how to play together. Thus they're turning the ball over at an alarming rate (21.5% of possessions, ranks 310th) and just not sharing the ball well (328th in assists per field goal). It probably does help when your point guard shoots all the time, but he's also their most efficient player so what do you do? They're very talented and very deep, so a great coach like Tom Crean I'm sure will eventually get this all straightened out.
Ha ha just kidding Crean sucks and is a terrible person and I hope he burns the program to the ground.
8. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Illinois has a nice shiny 8-1 record, but it's a completely empty 8-1 record. There isn't a single good win on that resume. A win over UNLV sounds good, until you realize that UNLV is a shitbox this year, and Valpo is the only other win they have that's even close to going to matter at the end of the year. They had a good chance at a quality win on the road against a somewhat frisky Georgia Tech team, but they let the Yellow Jackets finish the game on a 19-4 run so Illinois lost by three.
Despite a new coach and a whole new group of players they're still doing the traditional Illinois thing where they like to sit around and shoot jump shots. And, also a tradition at Illinois, they're not very good at having those jump shots go in. Luckily, thus far, they've been extremely good at rebounding their own misses, something that is unlikely to continue once we get into Big Ten play. They don't create turnovers at all, either, which means their only means of getting extra possessions is by those offensive boards, and, like I said earlier if you were paying attention, I doubt that keeps up against Big Ten teams.
9. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. I don't know what it is about my attraction to Penn State but I can't stop being infatuated. I'm like Freddie Prinze looking at Jessica Biel. No wait that one made sense. More like I'm some handsome devil like Ryan Gosling and I ended up falling in love with that lumpy chick from Girls. Penn State has all kinds of flaws and I shouldn't be attracted to their fat ass and busted teeth, but there are enough good things here that I keep overlooking those flaws and fixating on that great personality, sense of humor, and alcoholism.
Ok that was a pretty tortuous analogy, but the point is that Penn State is probably horrible but I love them anyway. A couple of really good guards including maybe the best one in the conference, a team that never turns the ball over and shoots well, a patchwork front court that fits together just well enough to be dangerous, and a horrible defense that ensures their games are going to entertaining. Then they get a sharp shooting transfer from Pitt eligible in the second semester. They haven't necessarily done anything impressive, but they do have wins over St. John's and LaSalle. I dunno, I'm rooting for them. WHAT'S WRONG WITH ME!??!?!
10. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Nebraska has actually been a pleasant surprise this year. Pleasant as in I, and many others, expected them to be completely horrible, while instead they've been somewhat competent. Wins over Miami and Georgia aren't great, but they're solid enough, and they've been competitive against good teams like Creighton, UAB, and UMass. The advanced metrics aren't great as they're the only Big 10 team outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (a near loss to Northern Illinois and they're 305 ranking doesn't help things), but they are looking better than they have the last couple of years.
Tai Webster, the much heralded freshman point guard from New Zealand, hasn't worked out as well as hoped yet as he struggles with his shot and turns the ball over far too frequently, but those are problems most freshman point guards deal with so there's no reason to panic. The Huskers have gotten solid play from their transfers, with Terran Petteway (Texas Tech), Deverell Biggs (Juco, reshirted last year), and Walter Pitchford (Florida) all in the team's top four in scoring and rebounding. Perhaps Nebraska is taking a page out of Iowa State's and becoming transfer U. No just kidding.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Purdue beat Boston College 88-67 in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, and I feel confident in saying that's the first good thing they've done all year. Really. Despite being 8-2, before beating BC and following that up by beating Eastern Michigan this weekend, the Boilers wins were all over teams outside the Top 208 with four of those wins by less than double figures. One loss was fine (to Oklahoma State) but the other was pretty wretched (to Washington State).
What's gone wrong? They're just thoroughly mediocre as Matt Painter has been unable to bring in top tier talent lately. Nine of the twelve Big 10 teams could be consider elite offensively or defensively, but Purdue (along with Northwestern and Nebraska) is just blah. The Boilers are playing at a lightning quick pace, their fastest ever under Painter, perhaps due to their overall lack of size, but it's not translating to easy baskets, and they're giving up way too many easy ones on the other end. Purdue is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. They're really bad.
12. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I cannot think of a single good thing to say about Northwestern this year other than that they probably have a really good combined IQ. They've basically been crushed by every single decent team they've played so far while sneaking wins against crap teams. This is how it's going: Northwestern is ranked #140 overall by kenpom's advanced metrics. The next worst team in the Big Ten is Nebraska all the way up at #92. There isn't a worse team in the ACC. There's just one worse in the Pac-12 and Big 12, and two worse in the Big East. They've been one of the worst teams in major conference basketball.
They're the worst team in the conference in offensive efficiency, and the second worst in defensive efficiency. I thought the return of Drew Crawford would mean this team would have an outside chance to rise to the level of competitive, and he's been fine, but the rest of the team has been crap. Dave Sobolewski has been absolute garbage, Alex Olah is putting up embarrassing rebounding numbers for a seven footer, and Tre Demps is still a terrible chucker. Chris Collins will likely find a way to make the program more competitive, and he's already got a nice recruiting class for next season coming in, but this year is the kind of year where a team with tournament aspirations needs to sweep Northwestern. Which, as you know, means the Gophers are headed to splitsville. Come on Pitino, break that curse that I just made up.
So that's where we stand with just a few short weeks to go until conference play. I see three teams with a shot at a #1 seed, two others who are almost certain to get bids, and then a small group of teams who will be around the bubble. I think the Gophers and Indiana are a step ahead of teams like Illinois and Penn State, but as usual it's going to come down to who defends home court and who can steal some games. I'm happy to say I see the Gophers right in the mix for a bid at this point, so hopefully that keeps up. Should be a pretty entertaining league this year with a lot of teams very close together in talent and skill level. Avoiding losses to the bottom three teams will be key.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Big Ten Preview
Here we are on the eve of the Gophers kicking off their exhibition season. Given that, here is a bunch of words that will serve as my official Big Ten preview. I already talked about the Big Ten like a hundred years ago, and here's a post where I kind of talk about NCAA basketball this year in general, so this will be the capper on the trilogy of posts that form my NCAA preview this year. Man, I feel like I'm writing an epic or something. Everybody knows the best things come in trilogies. I dare you to find something other than Twilight that proves this wrong. Indiana Jones tried to make a fourth something and it bombed. Trilogies are the best, ergo, I am the best. Here are my thoughts, teams in order of my predicted finish.
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. It's almost unfair. The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year. That's at least three NBA players. For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).
If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics. Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there. Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots. Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas. Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on. It's just not fair. Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us. Which is nice.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas. Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount. Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.
So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft. Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year? Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise. Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier. He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like. Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:
Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.? Come on, you know you see it. And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player. I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.
I can't wait to watch this guy. I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.
3. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I've written too much about Wisconsin already, which you can see if you click on the two links above, but I can't help but be really high on them this year as much as it pains me. I think their starting guards are absolutely perfect for Bo's system this year. His boring, boring system of boring opponents to death by being so boring. Then add in Sam Dekker, who brings a level of athleticism and ability the Badgers haven't had since, geez, maybe Devin Harris, and there's a whole new wrinkle to the offense. The biggest knock on the Badger offense, besides being so boring, is they get over reliant on the 3-point shot and don't penetrate the lane at times. Well Dekker can solve all that by being unguardable.
Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed. Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville. Yes, I hated writing every word of this.
4. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. People seem to think Michigan is going to be really, really good this year and I suppose that might end up being true, but I think they're more of a good not great team. I mean, it's a pretty big deal to lose your two starting guards to the NBA, especially when they pretty much dominated the ball all the time. Going from Tre Burke to one of Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, or a freshman is going to be a bit startling, even if Derrick Walton is one of the top PGs incoming this year.
I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team? Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one). Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from? If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year. So yeah. I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year. Possibly Penn State too. You'll see why.
5. IOWA HAWKEYES. The trendy pick for not just Big Ten sleeper but national sleeper, and why not seeing as how they basically have the same team from last year and they were very, very good the second half of the season making it all the way to the NIT Championship game. Last year Iowa was pretty good at just about everything except shooting where they were just dreadful, ranking 308th in the NCAA in 3-point percentage. That's pretty much going to decide just how good they can be, and with the same team back things don't look great, but they do everything else well enough that I think 5th is just about right.
One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit. It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s). Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up. They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad. Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100. And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.
One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team. I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe. Also this Peter Jok guy? The one newcomer this year for Iowa? Holy cow what a gunner. He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7). Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need. Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.
6. INDIANA HOOSIERS. Indiana, like Michigan, is another team I feel is getting a little bit too much national love based on how gutted they are to last season. They do bring in a hell of a recruiting class (four ESPN Top 100 guys) and they actually complement what they bring back, but I guess, again like Michigan, I'm just hesitant to throw my opinion behind a team with so many questions. Besides the four new guys you've got Yogi Ferrell who can't shoot, Will Sheehey who is kind of a spaz, and a bunch of guys who played very limited minutes last year.
Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around. Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess. The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden. Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson. Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is. Because it's true. [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana. I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]
7. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. This is the team,
outside the Gophers, I'm having the hardest time ranking, and I think,
like the Gophers, it's because my emotions keep getting in the way.
See, I love guys like Tim Frazier and want them to do well. When Talor
Battle was at Penn State (and no, this is not some kind of Penn State
phenomenon) I desperately wanted him to do well and carry his team to
the NCAA tournament - which he did only to be beaten by some Temple
jerks. Obviously putting them 7th, and I think this is pretty much
their ceiling, means I don't think Frazier is going to make it, but if
he's 100% back and everything gels perfectly they could do it.
It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team. Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).
8. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover). But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.
You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get? Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get? Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them. The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team. Here's hoping they make it.
9. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Hey you know what's cool about Illinois? Besides nothing? They're another team who has already played an exhibition game this season, and since there are tons of questions about how the team's going to shake out maybe we can learn a little something from that box score. Such as how Tracy Abrams, the point guard, led the team in shot attempts. Oh what an Illinois thing. Seriously, Chester Frazier must be rolling in his grave looking at the line of shoot first point guards who have populated that back court since he graduated. Well the line is just two, but they've both been extra annoying so it seems longer.
This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season. It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck. Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while? No.
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. This is a team that for some reason, probably because I like the dudes at Sippin' on Purple, I kept wanting to rank higher but then I slapped myself in the face and looked closer and was like gross. After being right on the verge of that elusive first ever NCAA bid for a couple years, they took a step back last season (a Drew Crawford injury will do that) and finished 13-19 (4-14 in conference) and finally fired their coach. Oh, what's that? You didn't know Northwestern has a new basketball coach well you should since he's a former Dukie which means it's all anybody can talk about.
But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way. I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff. The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt. Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard. That's pretty much all the positives. Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good. And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy. Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.
I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately. If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens). Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here. In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007. Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball? Yes.
12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. I wrote about 11 teams, took my kids trick-r-treating, and boy am I tired. Yet here is Nebraska staring me right in my stupid face. I think we all believe that at some point Tim Miles will get Nebraska turned around and at least making them competitive. This is not that year.
After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch. Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them. Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn? Yeah, that didn't happen all that often. This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand. According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles. So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year. Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!
 |
| Big fan of this behavior |
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. It's almost unfair. The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year. That's at least three NBA players. For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).
If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics. Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there. Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots. Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas. Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on. It's just not fair. Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us. Which is nice.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas. Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount. Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.
So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft. Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year? Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise. Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier. He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like. Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:
Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.? Come on, you know you see it. And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player. I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.
I can't wait to watch this guy. I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.
 |
| That's a beer bong coming in from the right side there. |
Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed. Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville. Yes, I hated writing every word of this.
 |
| This seems like a lot of teeth. |
I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team? Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one). Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from? If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year. So yeah. I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year. Possibly Penn State too. You'll see why.
 |
| I still hate Iowa, but this is a good argument it it's favor |
One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit. It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s). Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up. They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad. Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100. And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.
One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team. I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe. Also this Peter Jok guy? The one newcomer this year for Iowa? Holy cow what a gunner. He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7). Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need. Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.
 |
| Indiana was surprisingly lacking in pictures. |
Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around. Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess. The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden. Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson. Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is. Because it's true. [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana. I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]
 |
| I like her she seems smart. |
It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team. Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).
8. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover). But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.
You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get? Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get? Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them. The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team. Here's hoping they make it.
 |
| The pillow says Illinois. Nice microwave. |
This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season. It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck. Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while? No.
 |
| The website said these were Northwestern girls. Good enough for me. |
But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way. I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff. The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt. Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard. That's pretty much all the positives. Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good. And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy. Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.
I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately. If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens). Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here. In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007. Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball? Yes.
 |
| Bottom. |
After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch. Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them. Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn? Yeah, that didn't happen all that often. This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand. According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles. So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year. Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!
Thursday, October 10, 2013
2013-14 Big Ten Hockey + Icebreaker Classic Preview
Howdy folks! If you are reading this you are probably confused for two reasons. First you are wondering who the hell this guy writing this is. Secondly, you are probably wondering what the hell Big Ten Hockey is. As to the first question, I'm Andy a new writer here and I will be covering Gopher Hockey this season here on the blog. As for the second...well that's a bit of a longer story involving Jim Delaney, Terry Pegula, Barry Alvarez, Joel Maturi, and probably should not be discussed around children...but I digress.
Yes the Gophers along with the evil red menace to the east, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State have all become inaugural members of the Big Ten Hockey Conference. The WCHA still exists, but won't have most of its past notable members as not only has Minnesota and Wisconsin headed to the Big Ten, but North Dakota, St Cloud State, UMD and others decided that they wanted to run to another conference as well, so they are now in the NCHC, otherwise known as the Nacho conference. Mmmmmm Nachos.
So the Gophers will not be playing some of the usual teams you would have recognized in the past. No Denver, Colorado College, or either most annoyingly or happily, North Dakota will not be seen on the schedule until at least 2015-16. Instead Minnesota will be playing 20 games (2 each home and away) against its Big Ten Conference foes. For those who worry about the future of Minnesota hockey, no worries as the Gophers will play each of the other four Division I schools in Minnesota for at least one game, and most for two. The Gophers will host UMD and Minnesota State for 2 games each in November, and will play 2 games up in Bemidji next weekend. The last game comes against St. Cloud in the Friday night game of the inaugural North Star College Cup to be played in January at the Xcel Energy Center. The Gophers/Huskies winner will play the winner of UMD and MSU on Saturday night, and the losers will play Saturday afternoon.
The other big game on the Gophers schedule is the Hockey City Classic which will take place on January 17th against Ohio State outdoors at a rink constructed on TCF Bank Stadium's field.
The Gophers will round out their schedule with four additional non-conference series, @Notre Dame, at home against Boston College, the Mariucci Classic and this weekend's Icebreaker Classic at Mariucci Arena.
There are plenty of additional Gopher previews that go in depth on the players who have left the program to head to the pro ranks or have graduated, and the freshmen who have come in to replace them, so I encourage you to check them out if you are so inclined. We shall cover several of the players over the course of the season here, but there is not enough time to do it all today. I will however quickly attempt to handicap the Big Ten Conference race:
#8 John Mousso Sr-F
#10 Nardo Nagtzaam Jr-F
#29 Spencer Bacon Fr-G
And of course the girls:
The other two teams in the Icebreaker Classic, Clarkson and New Hampshire will face off at 4:00 in Friday with the losers playing at 4:00 on Saturday and the winners playing at 7:00 Saturday night.
Since we obviously don't know who Minnesota will play on Saturday, here's some girls for both teams to tide you over under next week:
Yes the Gophers along with the evil red menace to the east, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State have all become inaugural members of the Big Ten Hockey Conference. The WCHA still exists, but won't have most of its past notable members as not only has Minnesota and Wisconsin headed to the Big Ten, but North Dakota, St Cloud State, UMD and others decided that they wanted to run to another conference as well, so they are now in the NCHC, otherwise known as the Nacho conference. Mmmmmm Nachos.
So the Gophers will not be playing some of the usual teams you would have recognized in the past. No Denver, Colorado College, or either most annoyingly or happily, North Dakota will not be seen on the schedule until at least 2015-16. Instead Minnesota will be playing 20 games (2 each home and away) against its Big Ten Conference foes. For those who worry about the future of Minnesota hockey, no worries as the Gophers will play each of the other four Division I schools in Minnesota for at least one game, and most for two. The Gophers will host UMD and Minnesota State for 2 games each in November, and will play 2 games up in Bemidji next weekend. The last game comes against St. Cloud in the Friday night game of the inaugural North Star College Cup to be played in January at the Xcel Energy Center. The Gophers/Huskies winner will play the winner of UMD and MSU on Saturday night, and the losers will play Saturday afternoon.
The other big game on the Gophers schedule is the Hockey City Classic which will take place on January 17th against Ohio State outdoors at a rink constructed on TCF Bank Stadium's field.
The Gophers will round out their schedule with four additional non-conference series, @Notre Dame, at home against Boston College, the Mariucci Classic and this weekend's Icebreaker Classic at Mariucci Arena.
There are plenty of additional Gopher previews that go in depth on the players who have left the program to head to the pro ranks or have graduated, and the freshmen who have come in to replace them, so I encourage you to check them out if you are so inclined. We shall cover several of the players over the course of the season here, but there is not enough time to do it all today. I will however quickly attempt to handicap the Big Ten Conference race:
Projected Big Ten Conference Finish
1. Minnesota
The Gophers did lose several notable players to the pros including Nick Bjugstad, Nate Schmidt, and Zach Budish, however they return arguably the best goalie in the Big Ten in Adam Wilcox, the biggest big game player in Kyle Rau, and between Taylor Cammarata, Justin Kloos, Hudson Fasching, and Lou Nanne's grandson Vinni Lettieri should have the best freshman class in the Big Ten. All this comes together in time for the Gophers to take the inaugural crown.2. Wisconsin
The Badgers were predicted to finish first by the coaches and many in the media this season, and they return a ton of firepower, so that was to be expected. However, I don't think Joel Rumpel is quite as good a goalie as many think he is, and Wisconsin's slow methodical playing style will be tested by several uptempo teams like Minnesota and Michigan in the Big Ten. They also got the whole losing to bad teams thing going on as well losing at home to Penn State last February. They still get the first round bye in the Big Ten Tournament come March.3. Michigan
The Wolverines missed the NCAA tournament for the first time in 22 years last season, but Red Berenson will have them rearing to go to get back this season. Michigan will miss Jacob Truba who has moved on the the NHL after one season in Ann Arbor, but they bring in three freshmen who just need to move across the town from the US Under 18 Program. Michigan will be back to the top soon, but not quite yet.4. Michigan State
The Spartans did not have a very good year last year. There is no way to put it. Their two best players are also out for the first month of the season this year after off-season surgeries. However, MSU coach Tom Anastos has the team bought into his program in his third year and the injuries early may be a blessing in disguise when the backloaded Big Ten schedule comes around after the end of the year.5. Ohio State
The Buckeyes had a bit of a rough offseason as their former coach Mark Osiecki was fired to the surprise of many in the college hockey world. His departure made waves as several of his high profile recruits he had coming to Columbus decided to find other schools. His former assistant, Steve Rohlik has taken over and will have a hard time trying to keep up in a tough conference with a new goalie after Brady Hjelle graduated.6. Penn State
And now we come to the kids who forced this whole thing in the first place. Penn State gets a huge donation from alum Terry Pegula, and a few years later a decent club team is playing in a brand new arena at a Division I level. The Nittany Lions did beat three Big Ten teams last season (Wisconsin Michigan State, Ohio State) so they could be better then many expect in their first year. They will be led by Gopher transfer Max GardinerIcebreaker Classic Preview
Enough of this everyone else crap, lets talk about the Gophers and what they will be dealing with this weekend. The fifth ranked Minnesota team is hosting the annual college hockey kickoff tournament this season named the Icebreaker Classic. The Gophers are coming off of a 5-1 exhibition win last weekend over Lethbridge, a Canadian college. The game ended up being more of a wresting match then a hockey game as Kyle Rau played the AJ Pierzynski character to the Lethbridge squad drawing several penalties and causing at least two melees. Rau will be centering the first line for the Gophers this season, most likely this weekend with Lettieri and Junior Sam Warning who did not play against Lethbridge. The Gophers will open Friday night at 7:00 against Mercyhurst. The Lakers are predicted to win the Atlantic Hockey Conference this season, so they most likely will not be a complete pushover, but the Gophers are definitely the better team. The Gophers and Lakers have meet once in the past, in the first round of the 2003 NCAA Tournament when the Gophers cruised to a 9-2 win at Mariucci en route to their second consecutive NCAA title.Mercyhurst Lakers All Namers:
#7 Randy Cure Sr-D#8 John Mousso Sr-F
#10 Nardo Nagtzaam Jr-F
#29 Spencer Bacon Fr-G
And of course the girls:
 |
| Mercyhurst Dance Team |
 |
| Mercyhurst Cheerleaders |
The other two teams in the Icebreaker Classic, Clarkson and New Hampshire will face off at 4:00 in Friday with the losers playing at 4:00 on Saturday and the winners playing at 7:00 Saturday night.
Since we obviously don't know who Minnesota will play on Saturday, here's some girls for both teams to tide you over under next week:
 |
| Clarkson Volleyball |
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
A Super Early Big Ten Hoops Preview for 2013-2014
You know what it's way too early for? College Basketball previews. You know what I'm thinking about a lot lately? College Basketball. As such, here is a way, way, way too early preview of Big Ten Hoops next year, keeping in mind that there are no "official previews" or anything out there to work off of, so a lot of the player movement is only coming from my own research and as much as I tried to stay on top of it I'm sure there are some things I missed. Sue me. If you don't like it, don't read it, ass.
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
- LOSSES: C Derrick Nix
- ADDS: SG Alvin Ellis, C Gavin Schilling
- LINEUP:
PG - Keith Appling
SG - Gary Harris
SF - Denzel Valentine
PF - Branden Dawson,
C - Adreian Payne
- OVERVIEW: That is simply not fair. Not fair at all. Look at that returnee lineup and consider none of those guys are freshman so they bring back a ton of experience to go along with all that talent. About the only good news is they are pretty weak in terms of playing time behind the starters with only Travis Trice showing good production in quality minutes last year and the recruiting class isn't great (funny that they were both Tubby recruits and would have been considered "awesome gets") at least in so far as immediate impact goes. Still, Izzo shouldn't need much from his bench looking at how good everybody else is. An absolute National Title Contender right here.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
- LOSSES: F Deshaun Thomas, F Evan Ravenel
- ADDS: SG Kameron Williams (ESPN #68), SF Marc Loving (ESPN #62)
- LINEUP:
PG - Aaron Craft
SG - Lenzelle Smith
SF - LaQuinton Ross
PF - Sam Thompson
C - Amir Williams
- OVERVIEW: Another absolutely loaded team, they may lack the individual star power of some of the Spartans but this team is extremely deep. That lineup posted above is pretty much a guess, because they can also go smaller with Shannon Scott or one of the freshmen could slip in there - and Loving is a 6-8 small forward so they have even more flexibility. They may have some issues earlier figuring out who is going to replace the huge amount of ball usage Thomas took up the last couple years, but I'm sure with Matta still in charge they'll get it figure out quickly.
3. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
- LOSSES: PG Trey Burke, SG Tim Hardaway
- ADDS: PG Derrick Walton (ESPN #30), SF Zak Irvin (ESPN #22), PF Mark Donnal (ESPN #89), PG Andrew Dakich
- LINEUP:
PG - Derrick Walton
SG - Nik Stauskas
SF - Zak Irvin
PF - Glenn Robinson
C - Mitch McGary
- OVERVIEW: Losing your starting backcourt, especially as talented one as Burke and Hardaway, would probably be a killer for most teams, but Michigan caught a break with both Glenn Robinson and Mitch McGary deciding to stay in school and have an awesome starting class coming in that could yield two starters in Walton and Irvin. If things don't completely work out with the freshmen Michigan has the depth to absorb some of those issues as well, but more in the front court (Robinson can play PF or SF, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford are still around) than in the back court where Caris LeVert and Final Four almost hero Spike Albrecht are your depth. Really the biggest key to the season is Walton, but the Wolverines have enough talent to be in contention even if he struggles.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES
- LOSSES: SF Eric May (5.2ppg, 3.7rpg)
- ADDS: SF Peter Jok, transfer F Jarrod Uthoff (from Wisconsin)
- LINEUP:
PG - Mike Gesell
SG - Roy Marble
SF - Aaron White
PF - Melsahn Basabe
C - Adam Woodbury
- OVERVIEW: It kills me to think Iowa might be good this year as much as it kills you, but the ingredients are all there. Almost the entire team is returning from last year's team that finished out both the regular and postseason on a nice run, finishing second in the NIT. They are an experienced squad, but also have some nice young players who could seriously blossom, and they have two guys who are already poised to be stars. Roy Marble lit it up at the end of the year and scored 20+ in four of the Hawkeyes' five NIT games, and Aaron White not only made Team USA for the World University Games but has played pretty well. Add in the transfer of Uthoff and Iowa could even finish as high as third. Kill me.
5. INDIANA HOOSIERS
- LOSSES: C Cody Zeller, PF Christian Watford, SG Victor Oladipo, PG Jordan Hulls, SG Maurice Creek, SG Remy Abell
- ADDS: SG Evan Gordon (transfer from Ariz State), PF Noah Vonleh (ESPN #13), C Luke Fischer (ESPN #34), SF Troy Williams (ESPN #54), SF Stanford Robinson (ESPN #99), SF Devin Davis, SF Collin Hartman
- LINEUP:
PG - Yogi Ferrell
SG - Evan Gordon
SF - Will Sheehy
PF - Noah Vonleh
PF - Hanner Mosquera-Perea
- OVERVIEW: Nobody else in the conference loses anywhere near what the Hoosiers do from last season, but they've been stockpiling talent long enough (and this year's class is no exception once again) that they should end up just fine, particularly by getting a well timed, and immediately eligible thanks to the grad school loophole, transfer in Evan Gordon. Although Indiana has some good depth in the front court (Derek Elston, etc.) they were looking shaky on the perimeter (notice not a single guard in the much heralded recruiting class (though it sounds like Robinson is more SG/SF than pure SF) so Gordon's ability to handle both guard spots is going to be huge for Indiana. Because they definitely deserve more breaks. Tom Crean is an asshat.
6. WISCONSIN BADGERS
- LOSSES: PF Mike Bruesewitz, C Jared Berggren, SF Ryan Evans
- ADDS: PF Nigel Hayes (ESPN #83), PG Bronson Koenig, SG Riley Dearring, SG Jordan Hill, PF Vitto Brown
- LINEUP:
PG - Traevon Jackson
SG - Josh Gasser
SG - Ben Brust
F - Sam Dekker
PF - Frank Kaminsky
- OVERVIEW: Same as it ever was. Wisconsin loses enough from the prior year that you assume they'll struggle and they'll probably end up all good and stuff. Really though, this year it won't surprise me if they outperform my expectations (again) because Gasser/Brust/Dekker are a pretty solid little nucleus, and I think Dekker has the kind of ability to be an All-Conference player this season already. Once again, the bench looks empty and you'd think they'll struggle but whatever man, can we just stop talking about this? I hate stupid Wisconsin and I hate the way they always overperform where every stupid Minnesota sport underachieves over and over again. I'm sick of it. They don't even deserve it. They don't do anything over there. Have you ever been to Wisconsin outside of Madison or Milwaukee? It's fucking terrible, man. Just terrible. Their idea of culture is cheese curds which are admittedly delicious but still, erect a museum or something. The more time I spend over there the more I think Carl Gerbschmidt is real. If it wasn't for Minnesota's stupid no buying alcohol on Sunday thing I'd seriously start looking into one of those domes from Under the Dome to drop on that state.
7. MINNESOTA GOPHERS
- LOSSES: PF Trevor Mbakwe, PF Rodney Williams, G Joe Coleman
- ADDS: PG Dre Mathieu (JuCo), PG Daquein McNeil, SG Malik Smith (transfer from FIU), PF Joey King (transfer from Drake, probably will be eligible this year), PF Rakeem Buckles (rumored)
- LINEUP:
PG - Dre Hollins
SG - Malik Smith
SF - Austin Hollins
PF - Joey King
C - Elliot Eliason
- OVERVIEW: If you're reading this you're either hopelessly lost (just click the red X, man) or you already know plenty about the Gophers. Actually, despite being the team I know the most about this was the hardest team to peg including the starting lineup (or maybe because I know them so well). Will Charles Buggs start at the 4? Where will Dre Mathieu fit in? Mo Walker? Just so many questions right now, including who will even be on the roster come season start (King/Buckles questions). With this many questions, including a new coach with a new style and a new system, it's hard to figure where to peg this team, but the rest of the conference should be pretty weak this year (I'd put the Gophers in this tier with Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin) so somewhere in this neighborhood feels right, although I have to admit I can't seem them finishing any higher than here, but I can certainly see them going lower.
8. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
- LOSSES: F Jermaine Marshall, G Nick Colella, PF Jon Graham, PF Sasha Borovnjak, PF Patrick Ackerman
- ADDS: PG Tim Frazier (back from injury), PG Graham Woodward, PG Geno Thorpe, C Julian Moore, SF Payton Banks, SG John Johnson (transfer from Pitt), SG Allen Roberts (transfer from Miami-OH)
- LINEUP:
PG - Tim Frazier
SG - Allen Roberts
SF - D.J. Newbill
PF - Brandon Taylor
PF - Ross Travis
- OVERVIEW: It's really too bad Jermaine Marshall transferred out because otherwise Penn State might be really interesting. Frazier is one of the best players in the league, Newbill got valuable experience helping carry the offense without Frazier last year, Roberts averaged double digit points per game last year at Miami (OH), and Brandon Taylor and Ross Travis form a surprisingly effective inside duo. Even John Johnson, the transfer from Pitt, should help off the bench quite a bit once eligible in February - he shot 38% from deep while with the Panthers, which would have been tops on the Nittany Lions last year. It's a collection of intriguing parts led by a star, assuming Frazier is back at 100% this season. Talor Battle was able to drag a similarly constructed team to the NCAA Tournament in his final year at PSU - can Frazier do the same? I don't think so, but they're a lot closer than you think they are. Trust me, I'm smarter than you.
9. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
- LOSSES: F D.J. Byrd, PF Sandi Marcius, G Anthony Johnson
- ADDS: SG Kendall Stephens (ESPN #65), SF Basil Smotherman, SG Bryson Scott, SG Sterling Carter (transfer from Seattle), PF Errick Peck (transfer from Cornell)
- LINEUP:
PG - Ronnie Johnson
SG - Terone Johnson
F - Travis Carroll
F - Donnie Hale
C - A.J. Hammons
- OVERVIEW: Purdue may have a ton of question marks, and they do, but they also have one of the biggest upside players in the conference in sophomore A.J. Hammons, who at seven feet tall and 280 pounds is already a complete monster. He averaged 11 points, 6 boards, and 2 blocks per game despite playing just 23 minutes, and as his conditioning improves and his minutes go up those numbers will continue to climb (top block % in the conference among returning players and #3 in offensive rebounding % and #6 in Def. rebounding %). Purdue's biggest problem is everybody else, and they have zero shooters to surround Hammons with (their only reliable one last year was Byrd) so he can expect plenty of double teams, although Seattle transfer Sterling Carter (39% last year) could be the guy. Where have you gone, Ryne Smith?
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
- LOSSES: G Jaren Sina (highly rated freshman this year who opted out after the coaching change), G Reggie Hearn, G Alex Marcotullio, F Jared Swopshire
- ADDS: SF Nate Taphorn
- LINEUP:
PG - Dave Sobolewski
SG - Tre Demps
SF - Drew Crawford
PF - Mike Turner
C - Alex Olah
- OVERVIEW: Drew Crawford is back for Northwestern, and that's awesome for them, but these days instead of his running mates being Michael "Juice" Thompson and John Shurna he has Dave "Lesbian" Sobolewski and Alex Olah and that's just not enough help. Chris Collins is, in my opinion, a great hire for them and it's already paying off with the Wildcats nabbing their first ESPN Top 100 recruit in history (SF Victor Law, #66 in the class of 2014), but it's going to be a long road ahead. Still, between Crawford and the outside shooting of Sobolewski and Kale Abrahamson they'll no doubt end up with a nice upset or two, especially if Collins decides to stick with their stupid passive 1-3-1 which he absolutely, positively, should not do.
11. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
- LOSSES: SG Brandon Paul, SF D.J. Richardson, PF Tyler Griffey, PF Mike Shaw, PF Sam McLaurin, SF Devin Langford
- ADDS: PF Jon Ekey (transfer from Illinois State), SG Rayvonte Rice (transfer from Drake), G Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, may or may not be eligible next year), SG Kendrick Nunn (ESPN #61), SG Malcolm Hill (ESPN #66), PF Austin Colbert, C Maverick Morgan, PG Jaylon Tate
- LINEUP:
PG - Tracy Abrams
SG - Rayvonte Rice
SF - Joseph Bertrand
PF - Jon Ekey
C - Nnanna Egwu
- OVERVIEW: I'm always extra hard on the Illinois for some reason (probably Demetri McCamey's stupid face) but it's because the teams are always so stupidly constructed or play really really dumb. I'm sure Groce will get it figured out eventually because he's too good not two, but the whole Bruce Weber (a top 3 worst coach of all-time) dug him is going to take some time to get out of. He's going with the transfer route here which is a tried and true method to aspire to mediocrity, and that's probably where the Illini's ceiling lies this year. Simply put - I don't think Abrams is a good enough point guard to lift this team, I don't think Egwu is a quality Big 10 center, and I have a feeling Bertrand is going to go straight up chucker this year. So yeah, not optimistic.
12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
- LOSSES: C Andre Almeida, PF Brandon Ubel, SG Dylan Talley
- ADDS: PF Walter Pitchford (transfer from Florida), SF Terran Petteway (transfer from Texas Tech), PG Deverell Biggs (Juco), SF Nick Fuller, PG Tai Webster, SG Nathan Hawkins, PF Leslee Smith (Juco)
- LINEUP:
PG - Deverell Biggs (suspended indefinitely)/Benny Parker
SG - Ray Gallegos
SF - Shavon Shields
PF - David Rivers
PF - Walter Pitchford
- OVERVIEW: I have no doubt Nebraska will at least spend some time being a factor in the middle of the league at some point, it's just not going to be this year. There are some good signs as both Nick Fuller and Tai Webster are a better class of recruit than Nebraska usually gets and the transfer from Florida, Pitchford, obviously has significant upside if Billy Donovan signed him on. Overall though, the talent level just isn't there yet, especially considering the Huskers lost three starters off of last year's squad. Deverell Biggs should be a big upgrade over Benny Parker at the point, but he's suspended indefinitely after a DUI this December, and I suspect Tim Miles is smart enough to keep the missed games to a minimum. The good news for Nebraska is that Rutgers joins the Big Ten next year (2014-15) and they'll likely be a good ways ahead of the Scarlet Knights by then.
Well there you have it. Michigan State and Ohio State look to be on a whole different level than the rest of the conference, with Michigan a small step behind. There seems to be a pretty clear bottom three as well with Northwestern, Illinois, and Nebraska with everybody else jumbled in the middle. It really seems wide open to beyond #3, and I really wouldn't be surprised to see just about anybody at #4 and #5 - can you imagine Iowa and Penn State finishing 4th and 5th? It could happen. It would kind of suck for everyone because Iowa smells like poop, but it could happen. Seriously I'm already excited for next year. I'm such a dork.
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
- LOSSES: C Derrick Nix
- ADDS: SG Alvin Ellis, C Gavin Schilling
- LINEUP:
PG - Keith Appling
SG - Gary Harris
SF - Denzel Valentine
PF - Branden Dawson,
C - Adreian Payne
- OVERVIEW: That is simply not fair. Not fair at all. Look at that returnee lineup and consider none of those guys are freshman so they bring back a ton of experience to go along with all that talent. About the only good news is they are pretty weak in terms of playing time behind the starters with only Travis Trice showing good production in quality minutes last year and the recruiting class isn't great (funny that they were both Tubby recruits and would have been considered "awesome gets") at least in so far as immediate impact goes. Still, Izzo shouldn't need much from his bench looking at how good everybody else is. An absolute National Title Contender right here.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
- LOSSES: F Deshaun Thomas, F Evan Ravenel
- ADDS: SG Kameron Williams (ESPN #68), SF Marc Loving (ESPN #62)
- LINEUP:
PG - Aaron Craft
SG - Lenzelle Smith
SF - LaQuinton Ross
PF - Sam Thompson
C - Amir Williams
- OVERVIEW: Another absolutely loaded team, they may lack the individual star power of some of the Spartans but this team is extremely deep. That lineup posted above is pretty much a guess, because they can also go smaller with Shannon Scott or one of the freshmen could slip in there - and Loving is a 6-8 small forward so they have even more flexibility. They may have some issues earlier figuring out who is going to replace the huge amount of ball usage Thomas took up the last couple years, but I'm sure with Matta still in charge they'll get it figure out quickly.
3. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
- LOSSES: PG Trey Burke, SG Tim Hardaway
- ADDS: PG Derrick Walton (ESPN #30), SF Zak Irvin (ESPN #22), PF Mark Donnal (ESPN #89), PG Andrew Dakich
- LINEUP:
PG - Derrick Walton
SG - Nik Stauskas
SF - Zak Irvin
PF - Glenn Robinson
C - Mitch McGary
- OVERVIEW: Losing your starting backcourt, especially as talented one as Burke and Hardaway, would probably be a killer for most teams, but Michigan caught a break with both Glenn Robinson and Mitch McGary deciding to stay in school and have an awesome starting class coming in that could yield two starters in Walton and Irvin. If things don't completely work out with the freshmen Michigan has the depth to absorb some of those issues as well, but more in the front court (Robinson can play PF or SF, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford are still around) than in the back court where Caris LeVert and Final Four almost hero Spike Albrecht are your depth. Really the biggest key to the season is Walton, but the Wolverines have enough talent to be in contention even if he struggles.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES
- LOSSES: SF Eric May (5.2ppg, 3.7rpg)
- ADDS: SF Peter Jok, transfer F Jarrod Uthoff (from Wisconsin)
- LINEUP:
PG - Mike Gesell
SG - Roy Marble
SF - Aaron White
PF - Melsahn Basabe
C - Adam Woodbury
- OVERVIEW: It kills me to think Iowa might be good this year as much as it kills you, but the ingredients are all there. Almost the entire team is returning from last year's team that finished out both the regular and postseason on a nice run, finishing second in the NIT. They are an experienced squad, but also have some nice young players who could seriously blossom, and they have two guys who are already poised to be stars. Roy Marble lit it up at the end of the year and scored 20+ in four of the Hawkeyes' five NIT games, and Aaron White not only made Team USA for the World University Games but has played pretty well. Add in the transfer of Uthoff and Iowa could even finish as high as third. Kill me.
5. INDIANA HOOSIERS
- LOSSES: C Cody Zeller, PF Christian Watford, SG Victor Oladipo, PG Jordan Hulls, SG Maurice Creek, SG Remy Abell
- ADDS: SG Evan Gordon (transfer from Ariz State), PF Noah Vonleh (ESPN #13), C Luke Fischer (ESPN #34), SF Troy Williams (ESPN #54), SF Stanford Robinson (ESPN #99), SF Devin Davis, SF Collin Hartman
- LINEUP:
PG - Yogi Ferrell
SG - Evan Gordon
SF - Will Sheehy
PF - Noah Vonleh
PF - Hanner Mosquera-Perea
- OVERVIEW: Nobody else in the conference loses anywhere near what the Hoosiers do from last season, but they've been stockpiling talent long enough (and this year's class is no exception once again) that they should end up just fine, particularly by getting a well timed, and immediately eligible thanks to the grad school loophole, transfer in Evan Gordon. Although Indiana has some good depth in the front court (Derek Elston, etc.) they were looking shaky on the perimeter (notice not a single guard in the much heralded recruiting class (though it sounds like Robinson is more SG/SF than pure SF) so Gordon's ability to handle both guard spots is going to be huge for Indiana. Because they definitely deserve more breaks. Tom Crean is an asshat.
6. WISCONSIN BADGERS
- LOSSES: PF Mike Bruesewitz, C Jared Berggren, SF Ryan Evans
- ADDS: PF Nigel Hayes (ESPN #83), PG Bronson Koenig, SG Riley Dearring, SG Jordan Hill, PF Vitto Brown
- LINEUP:
PG - Traevon Jackson
SG - Josh Gasser
SG - Ben Brust
F - Sam Dekker
PF - Frank Kaminsky
- OVERVIEW: Same as it ever was. Wisconsin loses enough from the prior year that you assume they'll struggle and they'll probably end up all good and stuff. Really though, this year it won't surprise me if they outperform my expectations (again) because Gasser/Brust/Dekker are a pretty solid little nucleus, and I think Dekker has the kind of ability to be an All-Conference player this season already. Once again, the bench looks empty and you'd think they'll struggle but whatever man, can we just stop talking about this? I hate stupid Wisconsin and I hate the way they always overperform where every stupid Minnesota sport underachieves over and over again. I'm sick of it. They don't even deserve it. They don't do anything over there. Have you ever been to Wisconsin outside of Madison or Milwaukee? It's fucking terrible, man. Just terrible. Their idea of culture is cheese curds which are admittedly delicious but still, erect a museum or something. The more time I spend over there the more I think Carl Gerbschmidt is real. If it wasn't for Minnesota's stupid no buying alcohol on Sunday thing I'd seriously start looking into one of those domes from Under the Dome to drop on that state.
7. MINNESOTA GOPHERS
- LOSSES: PF Trevor Mbakwe, PF Rodney Williams, G Joe Coleman
- ADDS: PG Dre Mathieu (JuCo), PG Daquein McNeil, SG Malik Smith (transfer from FIU), PF Joey King (transfer from Drake, probably will be eligible this year), PF Rakeem Buckles (rumored)
- LINEUP:
PG - Dre Hollins
SG - Malik Smith
SF - Austin Hollins
PF - Joey King
C - Elliot Eliason
- OVERVIEW: If you're reading this you're either hopelessly lost (just click the red X, man) or you already know plenty about the Gophers. Actually, despite being the team I know the most about this was the hardest team to peg including the starting lineup (or maybe because I know them so well). Will Charles Buggs start at the 4? Where will Dre Mathieu fit in? Mo Walker? Just so many questions right now, including who will even be on the roster come season start (King/Buckles questions). With this many questions, including a new coach with a new style and a new system, it's hard to figure where to peg this team, but the rest of the conference should be pretty weak this year (I'd put the Gophers in this tier with Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin) so somewhere in this neighborhood feels right, although I have to admit I can't seem them finishing any higher than here, but I can certainly see them going lower.
8. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
- LOSSES: F Jermaine Marshall, G Nick Colella, PF Jon Graham, PF Sasha Borovnjak, PF Patrick Ackerman
- ADDS: PG Tim Frazier (back from injury), PG Graham Woodward, PG Geno Thorpe, C Julian Moore, SF Payton Banks, SG John Johnson (transfer from Pitt), SG Allen Roberts (transfer from Miami-OH)
- LINEUP:
PG - Tim Frazier
SG - Allen Roberts
SF - D.J. Newbill
PF - Brandon Taylor
PF - Ross Travis
- OVERVIEW: It's really too bad Jermaine Marshall transferred out because otherwise Penn State might be really interesting. Frazier is one of the best players in the league, Newbill got valuable experience helping carry the offense without Frazier last year, Roberts averaged double digit points per game last year at Miami (OH), and Brandon Taylor and Ross Travis form a surprisingly effective inside duo. Even John Johnson, the transfer from Pitt, should help off the bench quite a bit once eligible in February - he shot 38% from deep while with the Panthers, which would have been tops on the Nittany Lions last year. It's a collection of intriguing parts led by a star, assuming Frazier is back at 100% this season. Talor Battle was able to drag a similarly constructed team to the NCAA Tournament in his final year at PSU - can Frazier do the same? I don't think so, but they're a lot closer than you think they are. Trust me, I'm smarter than you.
9. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
- LOSSES: F D.J. Byrd, PF Sandi Marcius, G Anthony Johnson
- ADDS: SG Kendall Stephens (ESPN #65), SF Basil Smotherman, SG Bryson Scott, SG Sterling Carter (transfer from Seattle), PF Errick Peck (transfer from Cornell)
- LINEUP:
PG - Ronnie Johnson
SG - Terone Johnson
F - Travis Carroll
F - Donnie Hale
C - A.J. Hammons
- OVERVIEW: Purdue may have a ton of question marks, and they do, but they also have one of the biggest upside players in the conference in sophomore A.J. Hammons, who at seven feet tall and 280 pounds is already a complete monster. He averaged 11 points, 6 boards, and 2 blocks per game despite playing just 23 minutes, and as his conditioning improves and his minutes go up those numbers will continue to climb (top block % in the conference among returning players and #3 in offensive rebounding % and #6 in Def. rebounding %). Purdue's biggest problem is everybody else, and they have zero shooters to surround Hammons with (their only reliable one last year was Byrd) so he can expect plenty of double teams, although Seattle transfer Sterling Carter (39% last year) could be the guy. Where have you gone, Ryne Smith?
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
- LOSSES: G Jaren Sina (highly rated freshman this year who opted out after the coaching change), G Reggie Hearn, G Alex Marcotullio, F Jared Swopshire
- ADDS: SF Nate Taphorn
- LINEUP:
PG - Dave Sobolewski
SG - Tre Demps
SF - Drew Crawford
PF - Mike Turner
C - Alex Olah
- OVERVIEW: Drew Crawford is back for Northwestern, and that's awesome for them, but these days instead of his running mates being Michael "Juice" Thompson and John Shurna he has Dave "Lesbian" Sobolewski and Alex Olah and that's just not enough help. Chris Collins is, in my opinion, a great hire for them and it's already paying off with the Wildcats nabbing their first ESPN Top 100 recruit in history (SF Victor Law, #66 in the class of 2014), but it's going to be a long road ahead. Still, between Crawford and the outside shooting of Sobolewski and Kale Abrahamson they'll no doubt end up with a nice upset or two, especially if Collins decides to stick with their stupid passive 1-3-1 which he absolutely, positively, should not do.
11. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
- LOSSES: SG Brandon Paul, SF D.J. Richardson, PF Tyler Griffey, PF Mike Shaw, PF Sam McLaurin, SF Devin Langford
- ADDS: PF Jon Ekey (transfer from Illinois State), SG Rayvonte Rice (transfer from Drake), G Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, may or may not be eligible next year), SG Kendrick Nunn (ESPN #61), SG Malcolm Hill (ESPN #66), PF Austin Colbert, C Maverick Morgan, PG Jaylon Tate
- LINEUP:
PG - Tracy Abrams
SG - Rayvonte Rice
SF - Joseph Bertrand
PF - Jon Ekey
C - Nnanna Egwu
- OVERVIEW: I'm always extra hard on the Illinois for some reason (probably Demetri McCamey's stupid face) but it's because the teams are always so stupidly constructed or play really really dumb. I'm sure Groce will get it figured out eventually because he's too good not two, but the whole Bruce Weber (a top 3 worst coach of all-time) dug him is going to take some time to get out of. He's going with the transfer route here which is a tried and true method to aspire to mediocrity, and that's probably where the Illini's ceiling lies this year. Simply put - I don't think Abrams is a good enough point guard to lift this team, I don't think Egwu is a quality Big 10 center, and I have a feeling Bertrand is going to go straight up chucker this year. So yeah, not optimistic.
12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
- LOSSES: C Andre Almeida, PF Brandon Ubel, SG Dylan Talley
- ADDS: PF Walter Pitchford (transfer from Florida), SF Terran Petteway (transfer from Texas Tech), PG Deverell Biggs (Juco), SF Nick Fuller, PG Tai Webster, SG Nathan Hawkins, PF Leslee Smith (Juco)
- LINEUP:
PG - Deverell Biggs (suspended indefinitely)/Benny Parker
SG - Ray Gallegos
SF - Shavon Shields
PF - David Rivers
PF - Walter Pitchford
- OVERVIEW: I have no doubt Nebraska will at least spend some time being a factor in the middle of the league at some point, it's just not going to be this year. There are some good signs as both Nick Fuller and Tai Webster are a better class of recruit than Nebraska usually gets and the transfer from Florida, Pitchford, obviously has significant upside if Billy Donovan signed him on. Overall though, the talent level just isn't there yet, especially considering the Huskers lost three starters off of last year's squad. Deverell Biggs should be a big upgrade over Benny Parker at the point, but he's suspended indefinitely after a DUI this December, and I suspect Tim Miles is smart enough to keep the missed games to a minimum. The good news for Nebraska is that Rutgers joins the Big Ten next year (2014-15) and they'll likely be a good ways ahead of the Scarlet Knights by then.
Well there you have it. Michigan State and Ohio State look to be on a whole different level than the rest of the conference, with Michigan a small step behind. There seems to be a pretty clear bottom three as well with Northwestern, Illinois, and Nebraska with everybody else jumbled in the middle. It really seems wide open to beyond #3, and I really wouldn't be surprised to see just about anybody at #4 and #5 - can you imagine Iowa and Penn State finishing 4th and 5th? It could happen. It would kind of suck for everyone because Iowa smells like poop, but it could happen. Seriously I'm already excited for next year. I'm such a dork.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
