Previewing the Sweet 16 - Thursday

Calm down I'm here. Sorry. Unfortunately, the day after Selection Sunday we found out Mrs' W's grandpa died out in Utah, so it was a whirlwind of activity figuring out how to get out there, how to get the kids taken care of, and actually being there and seeing family and going from function to function and what not so I haven't been able to post anything about the Tournament. Luckily, however, the games were always on in the background and I'm really good at tuning out mindless conversation, so I know everything that happened. And, as a compulsive gambler, I probably know even more than you. Here's what's going on Thursday:


Wichita State vs. Notre Dame: Here we have that age old classic matchup of offense vs. offense, with Notre Dame averaging 1.21 points per possession (3rd in NCAA) and Wichita averaging 1.14 (16th). At first glance, Wichita seems more likely to be able to hold the Irish down than vice versa since their defense ranks much better, but playing in a weaker conference like the Missouri Valley can sometimes prop that up.  In the Shockers first two tournament games they allowed 76 points (1.1ppp) and 65 points (0.94), higher numbers than the 0.92 on the season - though the Kansas game was mighty impressive.

Notre Dame was pointed out by many as an upset prone type of team because of their reliance on the three pointer and suspect defense, and though they've shown a little better profile in the games so far (only 6 threes attempted against Northeastern, a good defensive effort vs. Butler) two three point wins, one in OT, don't have me convinced they're any less vulnerable.  Wichita is vulnerable to the three, but you have to work hard to get open shots against that defense, and they do an excellent job defending inside.  The Irish don't get offensive rebounds and don't create turnovers so they're going to have to hit open shots to score - which they are certainly capable of.

One of the most impressive things about the Shockers is they are super balanced in their inside/outside scoring.  They aren't dependent on the 3, but they can hit a ton of them if you leave it open - they beat Indiana hitting just two threes, they beat Kansas hitting ten.  The Shockers are an incredibly balanced team with no major weaknesses and a lot of strengths.  I mentioned before how a team's stats can be inflated going against inferior competition, and that's certainly a possibility here, but I think Wichita's results in the tournament the last two seasons show they aren't some overrated mid-major.  

Bet:  Wichita State -1.5 (2 UNITS), Over 137 (2 UNITS)



Wisconsin vs. North Carolina: This is a horrible matchup for the Heels. This is a team that can’t shoot, but thrives in transition and creates second chances for itself by absolutely owning the offensive boards (5th in the country). They don’t create rurnovers either, so they absolutey need those boards to score if they can’t get out and run. Now Kennedy Meeks, one of their two big time rebounders could be hurt or at least limited, and they’re about to go up against Frank Kaminsky. Yikes.

Seems pretty straight forward on the Badger end of things. Offensively they’re pretty much content to go one shot and be done, but always get that one shot. They won’t turn it over and the UNC defense doesn’t force turnovers, so most likely the Badgers will finish in single digits. They shoot the ball well enough that they won’t have to worry about creating second shot opportunities, and I expect to see four, if not five, Badgers sprinting to get back on defense as soon as a shot goes up. With everyone back and no or limited turnovers, the transition chances for the Tar Heels are going to be close to nil.

Generally the Badgers try to limit their opponents three point chances, but unfortunately Bo Ryan is smart enough to know that’s the exact opposite tact to take against North Carolina. The Badgers will likely pack the defense in and go under all screens (possible exception against Marcus Paige), forcing Carolina to make outside shots, something they’ve been horrible at this year. With Meeks status up in the air they’ll be even more limited in the paint anyway, so for them to have a chance someone like Justin Jackson or Nate Britt is going to have to suddenly learn how to shoot the lights out, or Brice Johnson will have to have the game of his life - seems unlikely. The Badgers, who hate to fast break like a fat kids hates asparagus, will send all five defensive players to the boards as well to take away as many second chance points from UNC as possible.

What does this all add up to? A slow it down, one shot each time down the court for each team kind of game. Does that sound more like a North Carolina kind of game, or a Wisconsin kind of game? I’ll give you a hint: Meeks leads the Heels in eFG% at 56.6% - four of the Badger starters are better than that, and Bronson Koenig would be if his 2-point % wasn’t so awful.

Bet: Wisconsin -5 (2 UNITS), Under 144 (5 UNITS).



West Virginia vs. Kentucky:  In order to beat Kentucky, several things have to happen and yes, all of them need to happen.  First, you have to be able to limit the monsters on the blocks.  Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles are huge, natural scoring machines, Willie Cauley-Stein is an athletic freak who's learning how to score, and Dakari Johnson is seven-feet tall and can jump over everyone's head.  Keeping them contained is no easy task, but it can be done with big, physical defenders and strategic double teams.  West Virginia doesn't defend the two well, has limited big men and only one shot blocker.  Not off to a great start.

Second, you have to hope the guards miss their outside shots and then rebound when they do.  Kentucky's one weakness is they don't have great perimeter shooting, and though they're usually smart enough to pound the ball inside the Harrison twins and Devin Booker can occasionally fall in love with the jumper shot. You'd much rather take your chances there than letting the big guys go to work in the paint, you just have to get the rebounds - easier said than done with UK rebounding 40% of their misses this season.  Kentucky's guards will have a significant size advantage over the Mountaineer guards so when they double and then close out the Wildcat shooters will be able to shoot over them, they'll just have to hope they miss and then rebound.  They're an average defensive rebounding team, so this could go either way.

Third, you have to be able to score.  Kentucky is a great, yes great, defensive team and they can shut teams down.  The good news for WVU is that they can score in some unconventional ways by excelling at getting themselves extra possessions.  The Mountaineers are #1 in the country at forcing turnovers and #4 in the country in offensive rebounding - that's a whole lot of extra shots.  They're a terrible shooting team, but they've gotten this far by creating extra scoring chances for themselves, something that will be the key to the game.  Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over much and they handled Arkansas pretty well, but they're surprisingly vulnerable to opponents' offensive rebounding. 

This will be an interesting game, because it's a team with an unconventional profile taking on Kentucky, a team they'll have to play against in a completely different way than they're used to.  Another wrinkle is Bob Huggins being involved, because no matter what you think of the guy as a person he's one hell of a coach.  Don't forget, the last time these teams matched up in the NCAA Tournament was when that John Wall/Demarcus Cousins Kentucky team looked unstoppable, and WVU won.  

Bet:  West Virginia +13.5 (2 UNITS), Under 136 (1 UNIT)



Xavier vs. Arizona:  Arizona is clearly the more talented team here.  The Wildcats have three or four future NBA draft picks on their team, one guaranteed in the lottery, and another guy who made the All Pac-12 First Team.  The Musketeers' best player is the guy everyone is making jokes about how he looks like a guy playing at the Y and is an Uber driver in his spare time.  In many ways this is your classic glitz and glamor vs. grit and hustle match-up, until you realize Arizona works its collective ass off and is one of the best defensive teams in the country so they're pretty damn gritty hustley too, just more talented.  So can Xavier keep this one close?

I think it's going to depend on if Arizona can hit threes.  Xavier tends to play a more packed in defense, giving up more three point attempts than average, and then hit the boards hard to limit second chances.  Arizona is not a great three point shooting team, although they do hit a good percentage.  The Wildcats prefer to get the ball inside, and then take threes when they're open.  Only Stanley Johnson and Gabe York took over 100 shots from behind the arc on the team this year, though they did hit each hit better than 37% so daring them to shoot is playing with fire.  There's no real easy way to stop Arizona, but keeping them out of the lane as much as possible is a good start.

Xavier is very well coached team, and as such I expect they'll realize they can't win an uptempo game against an Arizona team that thrives in transition.  This game will likely turn into a half court kind of affair, and with the Musketeers ability to keep Arizona off the offensive glass and their likely emphasis on getting back on defense rather than getting their own misses means the game will come down to Xavier not turning it over, and Xavier making enough shots to keep up with Arizona (X will likely not turn over Zona much).  The Musketeers played great offensively against both Ole Miss and Georgia State, and though Arizona is on a completely different level, Xavier so far has that look of a team that both knows it is not supposed to have gotten this far, and also knows it has nothing to lose.  Sounds kind of stupid, but it's also kind of a thing.

Bet:  Xavier +11 (1 UNIT), Under 136 (2 UNITS)

Back tomorrow for Friday's games.  

Super Bowl! Check it out at SportBet!

The Super Bowl is right around the corner, again, and as such I am gambling on it.  At the end of this post I will list everything I bet on, and they're all really smart bets so you should probably tail me. Want to know more about the Super Bowl this Sunday?  Check Sportbet.com for more news and odds.

The whole deflated football controversy is complete nonsense, although watching people get all twisted up inside about it is hilarious on both sides.  It's not really that hard to figure out.  The Patriots probably did something semi shady but also likely not strictly prohibited by the rules.  Many other teams probably do many similar things.  Or, more likely, it was something like the refs didn't really check the balls or something even more innocent.  Really, who cares if a ball is slightly deflated, do we really think it makes that much of a difference?  Morons, the lot of you.

As far as the game, I really don't know but I think and expect it to be close.  I think both teams will try to establish the running game, and if New England can get Blount going it's going to be a rough day for Seattle, because if they start having to commit to the run Brady should be able to pick them apart with some play action and short stuff.  The other way I see New England winning is getting ahead early, because Russell Wilson just isn't the kind of QB who can come back from a big deficit.  I know they came back against Green Bay but that had nothing to do with Wilson and if you think it did it's because you love him so much and want to marry him.  Green Bay screwed themselves at least three different ways.  God you Wilson lovers are the worst.  I don't even like the Patriots and I'm just praying that they win.  Anyway, here's my bets:


Due to a combination of a Patriots future I made last week at 2-1 to win and a whole bunch of teasers I'm guaranteed to make a profit on the game no matter what because somehow I've nailed every teaser (leaving one side of the Super Bowl) I made last week.  Best case scenario is a Patriots win by less than 7 or a Seahawk win by less than 7.  I make money even if one team blows the other out, but if the game stays close we're going Sizzler.

Props:

Seattle First Penalty called
Katy Perry first song Roar
Ovechkin shots on goal over Wilson TD passes
Arsenal/Aston Villa total goals over Brady TD passes
Delon Wright points over Seattle first half points
Wilson TD passes over Sidney Crosby points
Blount under 4.5 receiving yards
Collins under 8.5 tackles
Revis under 2.5 tackles
Chung under 5.5 tackles
Wilfork under 2.5 tackles
Wagner u 9.5 tackles
Ninkovich u 4.5 tackles
Hightower u 7.5 tackles
Chancellor u 6.5 tackles
Thomas u 5.5 tackles
Wright u 6.5 tackles
McCourty u 4.5 tackles
Sherman u 3.5 tackles
New England longest kick return
Blount MVP
Blount first TD
Blount over 62.5 yards rushing
No defensive or special teams touchdown
Longest TD of the game under 44.5 yards
First punt over 42.5 yards
No roughing the passer penalty
Belichick wearing blue hoodie
Belichick wearing hoodie with sleeves cut off
Katy Perry with Brown/Black hair

No,  you have a gambling problem.

It's Football Time!

It's that time of the year again.  The time where oversized humanoid types put on ineffective padding and run into each other over and over again at full speed - Yes, football.  Although I generally deal with more elegant sports like baseball and basketball here, I do like to dip my tow into the football waters once in a while because hey, more clicks and also because I really like predicting things since I'm almost always right.  So why not a quick look at the Vikings and the NFL, and then a preview of this weekend's Gopher football game since I'll be in attendance.  I'm not sure who they're playing but I'll look that up later.

So the Vikings.  The state's favorite squadron.  What are the betting expectations for the Vikings this NFL season? (look for the best odds from Sportbet.com).  Sportbet has the over/under for wins at 6.5, and if I'm a betting man, and I am, I'm going for the over (cautiously).  Matt Cassell is boring, and far more boring than my guy Teddy Bridgewater, but he is a competent QB which is a major upgrade from your guy Christian Ponder.  Cordarrelle Patterson is supposed to do that thing everyone says and become good, and don't forget Greg Jennings didn't just forget how to be a major league receiver, it's just Ponder did things like throw the ball into the ground and throw the ball into the ground again.  Cassell tends to do things more like throwing the ball in the air.  That's a plus.  And of course if Bridgewater ever gets to start the Vikings will start putting up 50+ points per game, but that's a given.

A lot of people seem to be excited about an upgraded defense, which makes sense, since the team is going from a defensive minded coach to a defensive minded coach and somehow this new one is better than the old one I guess.  I don't know.  Personally, I'm more excited about the personnel changes.  I mean, these guys have some sweet names:  Captain Munnerlyn is one of the best names in the league, and Linval Joseph isn't that far behind except that he's slower now after getting shot.  Really though those guys are upgrades, Anthony Barr has looked good this preseason, Harrison Smith is healthy, and Sharrif Floyd should be better because he can't be worse.  Plus Xavier Rhodes is awesome.

What's realistic for the Vikings?  If Cassell starts all year they'll be somewhere around 8-8.  If Bridgewater starts they'll win every game he plays, up to 15-2 and a Super Bowl victory.

Other quick NFL hits:

• The Panthers will be terrible
• The Cardinals will be the surprise breakout team, led by Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington
• Dallas will be a complete dumpster fire, but they'll give up so many points that Dez Bryant will have a career year and one of the best receiving years in history
• Atlanta will be a playoff team with a bounce back year from Matt Ryan
• The Eagles will regress badly
• The Packers will be annoyingly good and probably make the Super Bowl
• The Colts will win the Super Bowl
• Cleveland will win 3 games or less
• Derek Carr will win Rookie of the Year
• C.J. Spiller will re-breakout.
• Matthew Stafford will have even more weapons, put up even better stats, and still somehow screw the Lions into a 6-win season
• Ryan Tannehill will become a top 10 type QB

All of this will come true.

Now onto the college game, which is also fun!  And the internet tells me our beloved Gopher footballers are going up against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.  Whoa that sounds scary!  And they're 1-0!  And they won 61-7 last week!  Are the Gophers doomed?  Is their run to the BCS playoffs over before it really even starts?  No.  MTSU beat Savannah State who once had something like a 60-game losing streak in basketball so they're probably terrible in football too.  Let's look at these "Blue" "Raiders" a little more carefully, but keep in mind I'm only looking at stats like some kind of nerd who lives in his mom's basement because I have to admit I have never seen MTSU play football.  Nor have I heard of anyone on their team.  Seriously if you want a "real" "preview" I'd check out Still Got Hope, who are back and cranking out some seriously awesome Gopher football love (they're the kind of nerds who go watch practice, so you know it's detailed info).  

Last season the Blue Raiders went 8-4 including 6-2 in the Sun Belt, probably, and made the Armed Forces Bowl where they lost to Navy 24-6.  They played two real teams and lost to North Carolina by 20 and BYU by 27.  So far the intimidation level is low to quite low.  Which I suppose it should since the Gophers are favored by 16.  

Last year they ranked 83rd in passing offense, 31st in rushing offense, and 62nd in total offense.  That's some good running, boys, but a bad passing attack may be worse as their QB has moved on to do something else.  They do have both of their top RBs and one of their top WRs back, but not having a thrower guy back and replacing him with a guy who completed 45% of his passes last year is not a positive.  This new guy, Austin Grammer (Kelsey's son), did play well against Savannah completing 15 of 17 for 250 yards, but I assume those DBs were basically played by folding chairs so whatevs.  The running backs are worth looking at since the two returnees (Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley) both had over 650 yards last season and they added a new guy, Tony Rowland, who split carries with those two in their first game.  Rowland and Whatley are both tiny (5-7) so they're both probably really fast, and Parker is built like a real running back so he's probably good and stuff.  I'd keep my eye on those guys.

Defensively they ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 107th in rushing yards allowed, which is good for Minnesota because they hate passing anyway and would rather have one of their 20 running backs or their QB who is built like a grizzly bear and throws with similar accuracy to run down your face and smash into you over and over again.  Maybe their biggest strength last season was turnover margin, where they finished 12th in the country at a +12.  Their two safeties picked off 8 passes between the two of them last year and they're both back, so probably still not a good idea to throw the ball.  

Basically both teams suck at passing and are good at running.  Whoever stops the other team from running the ball well will win and that should probably be the Gophers.  Plus all this running and stuff probably means the under 52.5 is kind of money.  So let's do this.  Just as the Gopher basketball crushed the hopes and dreams of the Middle Tennessee basketball team in the NIT two years ago, so now will these Gophers crush MTSU's dream of a National Championship. 

Gophers 28, Blue Raiders 10.  

Monday Musings

I know, I'm a terrible blogger.  But it's really not my fault.  Gopher basketball is in a dead period for recruiting, so there's nothing to talk about there, and the Twins are sucking the life out of me once again on their way to another probably 90+ loss season.  How depressing is it that they're at .500 at the quarter mark of the season, but it feels like they're overachieving on a massive level?  It just feels like they're about to go on a 3-17 streak.  Anyway, since I have a bye in softball tonight, might as well put the time to good use.  I mean use.  Here's some stuff:

-  I suppose the biggest news locally is that Kevin Love has come out and said he won't sign an extension with the Wolves and plans to test free agency after next season - which means there's no chance in hell the Wolves end up signing him.  It was somehow both completely expected and a huge stomach punch at the same time.  Kahn really fucked us by not giving Love that fifth year (plus the whole out clause thing), and the only hope was that Flip could somehow trick him into staying.  Looks like it didn't work, so it's time to shift into getting as much as the Wolves can for him.  I would prefer it happen prior to this year's draft since it's so loaded, but Love wants to go to a contender and it's hard finding one of those with both young and promising players and draft picks, and assuming nobody will trade for him unless he agrees to sign a long term deal with them Love's going to need to be on board with his destination.  Some possibilities:

• LAKERS:  The long rumored destination given Love's ties to LA, this is going to be a tough one to make work.  The Lakers have a ridiculous amount of money tied up in Kobe ($30m) and Gasol ($19m) and would almost certainly have to include Gasol to make the money work and that does the Wovles very little good.  They also have basically zero interesting young players with the possible exception of Kendall Marshall.  They do have the sixth slot in the lottery in this year's draft, but they've already traded their 2015 and 2017 first round picks, which means they can't trade 2016.  No chance Love gets to the Lakers without a third team getting involved.
• CHICAGO:  Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler are a decent starting point to get a trade done, and the Bulls have #16 and #19 in this year's draft, and Chicago has 2015 first rounders from both Sacramento and Cleveland.  Gibson, Butler, and four first round picks would normally be enough to get it done but both those 2015 picks have some weird protections on them that actually mean they're either going to be non-lottery picks or no picks at all.  Probably the front-runner.
• GOLDEN STATE:  The Warriors can offer the best package of players, giving either Harrison Barnes or Klay Thompson as the centerpiece and maybe including either David Lee or Andrew Bogut.  They have zero draft picks to trade, however, having given up their 2014 and 2017 already.  The Warriors would likely need to get a third team involved, but starting with Barnes or Thompson is a good jumping off point.
• BOSTON:  I'm assuming the Wolves have no interest in Rondo, but Boston can still start with Jeff Green and Kelly Olynyk which is a decent enough start.  More interestingly, the Celtics have the #5 spot in the lottery in 2014 and the #17 pick as well, along with three 2015 firsts, and two first in each of 2016, 2017, and 2018 (thanks Brooklyn!).  I'm not sure if Boston's involved at all, and they're further from contention than anybody else on this list, but the combination of draft picks and the ability to use Rondo to entice a third team to throw some stuff in makes Boston the team I'd most like to see Love traded to (also it's nice to have traditions, and Minnesota stars going to Boston is a tradition as old as time).  
• PHOENIX:  The Suns have the last spot in the lottery this year and picks 18 and 27 as well, and will get the Wolves pick if it falls to #14.  They also have the Lakers' 2015 first rounder.  Assuming they won't give up Erik Bledsoe there isn't much here player wise, but I can already see the Wolves trying to talk fans into some combination of the two Morris twins and Archie Goodwin.  
• KNICKS:  They're going to come up because they're New York, but they have no chance of getting a trade done.  Their only asset is Tim Hardaway, because they've completely traded away their next three drafts.  The Knicks' only hope is that a trade doesn't get done and they can get him as a free agent.

Best case scenario is some of these teams and others get together and somehow the Wolves end up with a huge haul.  Something like the Wolves get a bunch of the Celtics picks, and the Celtics ship Rondo to the Bulls who then throw an extra pick or Jimmy Butler or somebody the Wolves way.  Of course, I've been a Minnesota fan for long enough to expect a terrible trade.  They'll probably deal him straight up for Andrew Bogut.

-  I suppose I may need to do a Phil Hughes breakdown at some point, given that he's been lights out in his last four games.  Seriously, a 1.37 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, an opponent's slash line of .230/.228/.300, and 20 Ks vs. 0 BBs in 26 innings is really impressive stuff.  He'll throw again on Wednesday in San Diego, and if he throws another gem, which seems likely given both the opponent and the park, I'll put up a post looking at his results a little more in depth.

-  Remember how I hit the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby and was going Sizzler?  Well I hit it for the Preakness too.  Same bet, same risk amount.  Big difference, however, in payout.  The Preakness had 10 horses, while the Derby had 19, so odds were significantly reduced already, and then the Preakness had 3 big favorites hit the first three spots while the Derby at least had one significant longshot sneak in there.  So the Derby payout was $1,541.  The Preakness payout?  $38.  No joke.  Was quite the letdown, but at least I've hit two now so I'll be playing for my own Triple Crown in a couple weeks.

-  Looks like Justin Morneau's skull seems to finally be ok seeing as he's off to a hell of a start.  He's hitting .327, which ranks 5th in the NL, with 9 homers (6th) and 32 RBI (4th).  Seriously once teammate Troy Tulowitzki finally gets hurt Morneau might be the front runner for MVP.  His power is way up, with an ISO near his career high in his MVP year, and although you can at least partially credit Coors for that, Morneau deserves the credit for cutting his K rate nearly in half and getting back down to where it was in his prime years.  He's being more aggressive, particularly at balls in the strike zone, and is hammering them pretty good.  His HR/FB rate is probably unsustainable so the home runs will probably taper off a bit, but he's in line for a pretty damn good season.  Here's a nerdy article talking about how he's one of the top players when it comes to hammering the ball compared to last season.

-  Among major league starters the Twins' have three of the highest 15 WHIPS -  #1 Kevin Correia at 1.68, #10 Ricky Nolasco at 1.53, and #15 Kyle Gibson at 1.47.  That, of course, doesn't include Mike Pelfrey who got shut down with a fake injury with a WHIP of 1.99.  I mean that's just like what?  Doesn't something need to be done at this point?  From the constant injuries that go from day-to-day to season ender without a trip to the DL, to the jettisoning of any talented player if they don't play "the Twins way", to this constant need to go back to the same shitty veterans like Matt Guerrier and Jason Bartlett just because they've been Twins before, to the in season roster mis-management that leads to not having a center fielder but having four shortstops this organization is a complete mess.  I need to write a whole post on this before I find myself down the rabbit hole here.  To sum up:

-  I was going to try to hit on the Gophers recruiting targets for 2015, but holy hell are Richard Pitino and the boys busy.  According to 247sports.com they have 26 offers out to 2015 unsigned players and I just really don't feel like going through all of that right now.  There are various levels of interest from the recruits, so I'll just hit a couple of the highlights (all rankings from 247 industry composite number) -

PG Jarvis Johnson (Minneapolis, MN), #81 overall/#18 PG - A De La Salle kid and the first legitimate shot for Pitino to keep the border closed on the players he wants. At all but the top programs keeping the borders closed on your top talent is a good way to build a program, and a guy like Johnson is good enough to boost the Gophers without being so good he's got programs you can't say no to after him - although Michigan State did just get involved so gulp.  The Gophers are considered a pretty big favorite over Wisconsin for his services, but the whole Sparty thing throws everything off.  Pretty important recruit here.

SG Jimmy Whitt (Columbia, MO), #96 overall/23 SG - This guy is piling up offers left and right, and although Arkansas is considered the favorite I've seen his name pop up around the Gophers a couple of times and there are so many teams involved things are still pretty murky.  One wrinkle is it looks like he digs Kansas but they haven't offered yet, so most likely once Kansas misses out on some of their top targets they'll move on to Whitt and he'll sign immediately even though he acted like he liked all these other schools because Kansas is jerks.

SF Danjel Purifoy (Centreville, AL), #43 overall/#10 SF - Worth noting as he's the highest rated player who is given "Warm" interest in the Gophers by 247, along with every SEC school and Maryland, Michigan, and Wichita.  Yes, Kentucky has reportedly offered but I'm guessing he's a back burner type for them, just given Calipari's ability to grab top 10-ish recruits at every position every year.  Purifoy should get you seriously excited given he's an absolutely insane athlete who can handle the ball.  He'd come in and immediately start for the Gophers and he can score, defend, and rebound already.  His jumper isn't very good right now but when nobody can stop your drive you can be a bit more patient with that.  This guy, we want.

PF Alex Illikainen (Grand Rapids, MN), #65 overall, #17 PF - If you could say the Gophers have one traditional recruiting strength regardless of coach, it's been out state Minnesota kids.  I'm trying to remember a non-city kid from the state who the Gophers wanted and didn't get and I can't think of one.  The closest I can come is Cody Johnson who ended up at Iowa State but I don't think the Gophers really recruited him.  I guess you could count J.P. Macura if you wanted but I meant more country kids, not places like Lakeville, and the whole coaching change thing makes it a crap shoot.  In any case, the Gophers should be in decent shape for Illikainen, although the competition isn't from anyone who strikes particular fear into my heart (Cal, Creighton, Iowa State, and Indiana are the other schools who have offered and he's shown interest in).  He's a perfect stretch four who can also run the floor well and finish in transition, so he not only is from Minnesota but he'd fit Pitino's system perfectly.  He's pretty much a Gopher Hole wet dream, and in this case I can't blame them.

C Akolda Manyang (Duluth, MN), #1 overall JUCO, #1 overall JUCO C - Pulling kids from Junior College is always a crap shoot as their are some incredible success stories and some disasters and everything in between, but he's highly rated, he's seven feet tall, and he's at least got some other high majors after him (Oklahoma, Arizona State).  I promise if things heat up I'll try to track down some kind of scouting or more info on him, but for now he's really tall and some people like him.


Honestly if Pitino got an all Minnesota class (with Manyang, Illikainen and Johnson) that would be a pretty good class and make those weirdos who want the team to be like, only Minnesota kids happy too.  Two top 100 kids and the top Juco would be a nice step up for the program and a natural build, made all the easier by it being local kids.  That being said, Pitino is so aggressive and he has so many offers out to so many top kids I'm hoping that after so many near misses last year he finally lands somebody that is like wow - #22 Allonzo Trier, #39 Eric Davis, #42 Jalen Adams, #21 Brandon Ingram, #6 Chieck Diallo, #27 Moustapha Diagne, and #16 Doral Moore are all in play to various degrees.  Hopefully he gets one (or more).

Thursday Thoughts

-  So the "big" news of the day in Gopher land is that the Big 10/ACC Challenge match-ups were announced and the Gophers got screwed.  No, it's not Florida State for the 12th time, but they ended up getting slated to go on the road to Wake Forest.  Despite finishing 7th in the league, the Gophers get last season's 11th place Demon Deacons who are probably going to be even worse.  At the same time, the 6th place Hawkeyes get North Carolina, and Illinois and Indiana, who both finished below the Gophers, get much more favorable match-ups in Miami and Pitt, and last place Purdue got a fun match-up in NC State.  This is horseshit.

There are 14 Big Ten teams.  There are 15 ACC teams.  Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit.  No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th.  If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:

Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs.  Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs.  Illinois
Miami vs.  Indiana
Wake vs.   Penn State
Georgia Tech vs.  Northwestern
Notre Dame vs.  Purdue
BC vs.  Rutgers

Way better and much more fair.  Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards.  Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year.  One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters.  It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program.  Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me.  I need a drink.

-  Going with Knob Creek.

- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas.  You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher.  If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat.  Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk.  Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally.  Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).

Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out.  Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues.  I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN.  This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible.  So he's probably 50/50.  The NCAA is neat.

-  It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible.  Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?

The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed.   Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year.  Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):

• Ricky Nolasco:  6.67/5.36/4.32/1.75
• Phil Hughes:  5.14/3.42/3.72/1.39
• Kevin Correia:  7.33/4.21/5.24/1.67
• Mike Pelfrey:  7.32/8.22/6.87/1.88
• Kyle Gibson: 4.34/3.55/4.79/1.55

As Ian Malcolm once said, "that is one big pile of shit."  Gibson's the only one who has looked halfway decent but his last two outings have been pretty bad and I fear his hot start was mostly fluky.  Hughes has been far and away the second best starter on this team so far.  Phil Hughes!  The good news is most of these guys aren't quite as bad as they've looked since with one exception their FIPs and xFIPS are lower than their ERA, which suggests that either luck or bad defense is making things worse and considering the team's horrendous corner outfielders it could be that, but they aren't suddenly going to get better.  The bad news is that Mike Pelfrey might actually be worse than he's looked.  Worse!  

They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold.  Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year.  Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far.  Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today?  Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching.  And this pitching sucks.  At least

-  The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years.  Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.

My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1.  He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3.  He's also one of the best closers in the field.  If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge.  Like this horse a lot.  Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1.  Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner.  Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza.  Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1.  My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British."  So there you go.  I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners.  Looking to win big this year.

BOATLOADS!

(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)

Sweet Sixteen Predictions (Friday)

Well I couldn't have read that Wisconsin/Baylor game any worse.  I expected Frank Kaminsky to get killed, but instead he did the killing.  It was like watching The Others and being like, man this is way creepy poor Nicole Kidman but then bam it turns out Nicole Kidman is dead the whole time.  Oh, spoiler alert.  Anyway thanks to Florida coming through, a couple over/unders, and hitting two middles with second half bets I overcame the big Baylor loss and made a little bit of money.  Hopefully there's more to come tonight.

#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee.  They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession.  The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville.  That's a pretty damn impressive group.  However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams.  The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win?  That win over a fading Iowa team.  Next up?  A win over a fading and overseeded UMass.  Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas.  See what I'm saying?  Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.

Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time.  They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking.  Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan.  Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense.  From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's.  I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units

#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN.   Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team.  It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size.  That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.

Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now.  He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half.  And man did you see some of those shots against Nova?  Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against.  DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova.  It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four.  Sorry Clones.  UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.

#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next.  So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?

Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end.  With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team.  Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did.  Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with  almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time.  Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139.  Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.

#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run.  They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5.  They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.

The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th).  I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia.  Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are.  The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them.  One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.

Sweet 16 Thoughts - Thursday

So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected.  All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early.  My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues.  Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking.  Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:

#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford. 
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played.  There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy.  Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton.  Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.

It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win.  I'm on Stanford here laying the three.

#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach.  I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time.  More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism?  Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career.  Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7.  Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?

Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot.  Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works.  This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline.  Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard.  Also possible.

#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here.  They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well.  They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin.  They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.

I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately.  For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves.  No chance.  Florida -4.5 for three units.  I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock.  Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.

#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone.  San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames.  You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly.  I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.

Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim.  Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers.  Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots.  I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close.  I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units.  I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would.  Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5. 

Just Watching some Baseball and Stuff

Sitting here watching the Rays/Indians Wild Card game, and since the Danny Salazar vs. Alex Cobb match-up is less than intriguing rather than Live Blog the game I'll just write down some thoughts as they run through my head instead, especially since I haven't been around for a while what with feeling a bit under the weather.

Bets for tonight:

Rays -115
Alex Cobb UNDER 6 Ks (BIG!)
Danny Salazar UNDER 5 Ks (BIG!)
Delmon Young UNDER 2 h+r+rbi
Cobb UNDER 96.5 pitches  (MEDIUM!)

-  Since you asked, yes, I do like the 2 Wildcards in each League format.  I know some people hate it, but some people hate spicy food too - people are morons.  Think about it like this:  when there was just one Wild Card, you had 3 division winners and the WC in each league, so where's the advantage of winning your division when the WC and one of the division winners are treated exactly the same?  If you were out, say, a game from the division lead with 2 games to play and had the wild card wrapped up there was no incentive to try to win it, rather rest your players and set up your rotation for the playoffs.  Now?  There is a HUGE advantage to winning the division - HUGE.  No idea why people don't like it.  You guys are all idiots.

-  Speaking of things that people like, I usually don't like things that people like but I admit I'm pulling for the Pirates this year (and no, it has nothing to do with Francisco Liriano or Justin Morneau).  I just think that after so many years of being terrible I'd like to see them have a nice run, just like if the Royals made it.  I know Pittsburgh has had plenty of success with the Penguins and Steelers, but I don't know, such a historic franchise just being managed into the ground into an almost total failure, then rising 20 years later?  It's a good story.  And one us Twins fans should start to think hard about.  MORE GARDY!  HOORAY FOR BEING CRAPPY BUT LIKABLE! MORE RON GARDENHIRE PLEASE!

-  Oh good, Salazar has it dialed up to 98.  Excellent.

-  My my how things have changed with the optimism regarding the Gopher basketball 2014 recruiting class.  After getting mentioned by many, many top recruits and making numerous final cuts, it looks like they're going to get out with Josh Martin, who, right or wrong, dropped well out of ESPN's Top 100, and whichever of the Big 3 (if any) Pitino manages to grab.  There's still plenty of time and plenty of players left to get a solid class (Carlos Morris, Nate Mason, Josh Cunningham, Bonzie Colson, etc.) but the dream days of a monster class are dead, barring scoring two of the Minnesota kids.  I'm not knocking Pitino and I'm only a little disappointed, if only for myself for expecting a miracle, but it seems shooting for the stars with a brand new head coach with only a short time to recruit for the 2014 signing period may not have been the smartest thing for my mental health.  It turns out obsessively refreshing Twitter on a recruit's decision day just makes you angry and tired.

There's still no reason to panic or to start worrying about Pitino as a recruiter.  It isn't easy to make up ground in one off-season when most of these kids have relationships with other coaches going back years, and it's also tough to sell a program when suddenly someone like Michigan State swoops in at the last hour and steals a kid away like Pennywise the terrifying clown.

Yes, this is Tom Izzo.

So let's chillax a bit, bro, and dial it back.  Grab a couple of decent kids, pray for 1 (or 2!!!) Minnesota guys to stick around, and let's see what Pitino has as far as game planning/game day chops and then give him a full year+ of recruiting before we throw a fit.  Yeah, it's quite the change in tone from the reaction after he was hired and when he had gotten off to an intriguing start with recruiting, and I'm as guilty as anybody, but it's more realistic as well.  What I should have said a long ass time ago was that Pitino probably wasn't a hot shot young kid with a good name who was going to set the world on fire, nor was he an over-matched poor hire who was going to drown, but the truth, as in most things, lies somewhere in the middle.  We'll find out approximately one year from now, if not sooner.  No, this isn't doom and gloom here.  I like the Martin kid, and if nothing else Reid Travis is said to now be seriously considering the U, where he wasn't prior to Pitino coming around.  So that's something.  Love has patience.

-  I caught up on Breaking Bad in about 2 weeks just in time to watch the final 2 episodes "live" and there's no doubt in my mind it's the greatest show of all-time.  I'll admit to not having watched The Wire or The Sopranos, the two shows most think of as being in the running with BB, so the only other things I have to compare it to are Lost and Game of Thrones (Comedy is a different category in my opinion, and that's a Seinfeld runaway - Simpsons would have been right there too if they ended it after like, 8-9 seasons - with Scrubs solidly in second but without the re-watchability factor of Seinfeld).  Lost was right there where Breaking Bad was for 3-4 seasons and then fell completely apart, and Game of Thrones is based on books that I've read multiple times so there are no real surprises.  Thus, nothing compares to Breaking Bad.  Finale was pretty much perfect, and if you disagree you're mentally ill.

-  Good sweet lord, is Delmon Young the greatest playoff hitter of all-time?  He just hit the unhittable Danny Salazar about two billion feet out to left.  I know shit like, "clutch" doesn't technically exist and stuff like that but it's hard to believe when every time you look up Delmon is back in the playoffs hitting another home run.

-  Speaking of the mentally ill and Delmon Young, keeping Ron Gardenhire is still nagging at me.  He's not the worst manager in history, obviously, and a lot of his issues are exacerbated by a front office and club mentality that both enables and emboldens him, but the game has passed him by.  Whether you want to call him "old school" or ""stuck in his ways" depends on how generous you want to be, but he's not a forward thinker.  Whether it's sac bunting all the time, loving the stolen base, the insistence at speed in the leadoff spot at the expense of getting on base, the insistence on someone who can "handle the bat" in the 2-spot at the expense of getting on base, the whole "pitch to contact" thing, the "hit to all fields" thing, the love of the scrappy white player, or his refusal to platoon players no matter how much their splits call for it, that's a lot of "advanced" strategies that he refuses to engage.

I get that the guy is probably a great clubhouse leader and I would probably pick him out of any major league manager in steak grill-off or beer chugging race, but enough is enough.  Look at the teams who made the playoffs:  The Rays, Indians, Pirates, and A's all use advanced metrics, defensive shifts, and platoon situations to take small payrolls and maximize their ability to win games - something the Twins could certainly use.  But look at this quote from Terry Ryan,  

"I don't think he likes to platoon players at all. I don't either. Put guys out there that are everyday players, then you don't have to platoon. You're always looking for players that can play 162 games, right? That's what I'm looking for. I don't go out looking for platoon players."

 That doesn't accomplish anything other than validate the manager's outdated philosophy and style, and explains why nothing has changed from when Jacque Jones was constantly starting despite being nearly helpless against lefties to Trevor Plouffe constantly starting despite being hapless against righties almost ten years later - he hasn't had a reason to change so why should he (oh, right, the success of the A's, Pirates, Rays, and Indians this year).

Last season, for example, the A's had Brandon Moss and Chris Carter - both of whom could crush pitchers who threw with one hand, but struggling against pitchers who threw from the other.  So they put them together and ended up with 556 plate appearances and put up a line of .267/.349/.559 with 37 homers, 91 rbi, and 86 runs scored.  That's basically Josh Willingham last year, except he made $7 million (and was considered a steal) while Moss and Carter combined to make about $6 million less.

At this point baseball has evolved to the point where doing things "the right way" isn't enough because "the right way" is constantly changing.  For a time, building a team on solid fundamentals and not walking opponents was a winning strategy, but you need more.  It's no longer a checkers match, and although chess match might be a bit much it's getting closer.  Too bad the Twins just resigned a manager and still have a GM who are stuck on Connect Four.

BAM!  Don't pretend you don't like that analogy.

Actual Picture

-  Intentionally walking Delmon Young - so it's come to this.  Baseball is a strange, strange game.  And my satellite just went out.  Fucking weather.  God bless you internet.

-  So I have early season futures (To Win World Series) on the A's (33/1), Braves (14/1), and Cardinals (23/1) so that's pretty good.  Of course, I also had Twins, Royals, and D-Backs and that's pretty bad, but I'll take that 50% every time, especially since I wasn't exactly confident in either the Twins or Royals picks.

-  Danny Salazar exits with 4 Ks.  I'm a genius.  Time to get Alex Cobb out of there.

-  I just stumbled across a twitter conversation between a recruiting expert and a Gonzaga blogger, and the gist is that if that Looney kid commits to Duke before Reid Travis makes a move it's suddenly a West Coast battle between Stanford and Gonzaga.  Yes, I know recruiting experts generally know only slightly, slightly more than the the general public with a few exceptions (I'll put Adam Zagoria up there) and bloggers know basically nothing, it's still not a fun read.  I don't want to talk about it.

-  Satellite went out again.  This time the steam I found is in Spanish.  Excelente!

Well the satellite's not coming back and my internet feed is apparently shit.  I'm also tired and have already written too much for any mortal human to read.  So I guess I'll see you guys later.

Derby Picks

I tried to write a real post tonight.  I really did.  I started and then stopped like 4-5 times.  I don't know, I think when the only thing to write about is Twins' futility it gets kind of boring.  I'll get back into the swing of things I swear.  I'm planning on doing a weekend review for your Monday pleasure because at least that will get the ole writing juices going, at a minimum.  As an apology, please accept my Kentucky Derby picks as my apology.  Keep in mind that I have done pretty well on the Derby since I started taking it semi-seriously the last three years, including hitting Super Saver 2 years ago at 14-1. 

Your best bets for the odds:

Gemologist at 6-1: of the favorites, he's my favorite
Daddy Nose Best at 15-1:  he's a closer and coming from a track that's produced Derby Winners in the past
Hansen at 10-1 and Trinniberg at 50-1:  both are big time front-running speed, and although they're likely to jump out in front and then fail (particularly Trinniberg) we've seen wire-to-wire winners before. 

If it turns out this is going to be a muddy track, throw some coin down on El Padrino at 20-1.

If you're playing a Trifecta, I think your best horses are Gemologist, Daddy Nose Best, and Dullahan.  For a superfecta, go ahead and throw Union Rags in there.

Personally, I'm taking the four horses above along with Dullahan to win, then throwing a trifecta box out there with Gem, Daddy, Dullahan, Hansen, and Union Rags.  Good luck to all.  Please buy me something nice or at least some White Castle when you win the big bucks.  Here are some good pictures for no good reason:

 

March Madness Preview

Well I'm back which sucks.  I mean, I'm back in Minnesota from Florida for a couple of days before I head to Chicago with Snake and Dawger to watch some hoops with Bogart, but man am I going to miss Florida.  So awesome.  And even though we were on Estero Island, which is across from Fort Myers, we didn't go anywhere near the Twins facility.  We didn't plan not to or anything, but we didn't plan to necessarily either and there was just so much to do we never got around to it and really I don't care one bit because hey, it's preseason baseball.  What with all the laying on the beach, swimming in the ocean, playing with the kids, drinking, ogling college girls in bikinis on their Spring Break, fishing (although I wish I did more) and incredible food, there just wasn't time.

We even lucked into being there for Shrimp Fest, which meant there was a kick-ass parade the kids loved and the festival offered a massive amount of delicious shrimp, which fit in with all the other incredible seafood we were able to have (including an amazing crab chowder on Sanibel Island and tons of grouper and shrimp prepped in various ways).  Not least of which was simply picking it up fresh from the daily market and preparing in the condo.  I made grilled chili-lime shrimp, almond-crusted grouper, grilled spicy garlic shrimp, and spice-rubbed sea bass with a brown butter sauce and I know I like to brag about my cooking on here and everything but I absolutely knocked these out of the park.  In fact, that grouper recipe is so good I'll share it at the end of this post.  Plus they had Yuengling everywhere, including a place that had it on tap for $1.50 during happy hour.  Many were consumed.

But enough about the past, time to look to the future and preview the NCAA Tournament.  Not just picks for a bracket pool, but also some good lines I'll be wagering on at TopBet NCAA Hoops.  I've realized lately that the reason I'm not doing well in bracket pools lately because I get a little too crazy.  If I pick three crazy things to happen deep in the tournament, even if one does I'm screwed because it doesn't make up for the two that didn't.  So I'm going to dial it back a bit this year, but I'll still throw out my crazier feelings because then if they hit I look smart.  Oh, and I may write something Gopher-related tonight if I decide to watch them play LaSalle.  I'm not sure yet.

SOUTH REGION:
The big story here obviously is Kentucky, which had rolled through this season without much issue until dropping the SEC Championship to Vandy, but still received the #1 overall seed due to their regular season domination.  I also think they caught a break with their #2 and #3 seeds in Duke and Baylor because both have a tendency to shrink from big games and it wouldn't be remotely surprising if neither makes the sweet 16.  I'm actually picking UNLV to beat both because they have the size and athleticism to neutralize Baylor's advantage and beat up on Duke, and like I said both teams are upsets waiting to happen.  The only real danger is if Duke gets hot from 3, and the Rebels have struggled in that area but I think it's a worthy gamble.

Kentucky's biggest competition in the region might be Wichita State, a team I was willing to have go all the way to the Elite 8 or Final Four in my bracket if they avoiding the wrong match-ups, and clearly they didn't.  I was initially tempted to stubbornly stick with what I was hoping would happen and have them shock the Wildcats (see what I did there) but reason prevailed and there's just no way I can take them over Kentucky so I have the Shockers out in the round of 16.  I think they're the right kind of team who could take them down (experienced, well coached, disciplined, with enough size to deal with UK) and will be hammering them wagering wise assuming they get that far, but gotta go with the Wildcats here, as well as to win the region.

Early upsets I like UCONN over Iowa State and Xavier over Notre Dame.  I actually liked either UCONN or Iowa State as a sleeper squad, but again, not against Kentucky, and I'm giving the edge to Connecticut mostly just based on experience but wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Cyclones pull it out.  Xavier underachieved most of the year while Notre Dame overachieved, both results that seem to be evening themselves out.  Xavier is the more talented squad, so they're the pick.


WEST REGION:
A pretty straight-forward region to me without a ton of upsets, but one that stands out to me is Memphis over Michigan State in round 2 (or 3, whatever).  I know Sparty closed out the year strong, but the Tigers were on fire to finish up.  They won 11 of their final 12 games which included wins over Xavier, two wins over a good Marshall team by 20+, two wins over a good UCF team by 19+, and a double-digit win at a decent Tulsa squad.  There's more.  Memphis also ranks in the top 20 in kenpom.com's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, one of only seven teams in the country to have that distinction (the others:  Syracuse, North Carolina, Wichita, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio State, and, yes, Michigan State).

In my estimation the two best teams in the top half of this region are Memphis and Michigan State, and whoever wins this one goes on to the Elite 8, knocking off New Mexico in the round of 16.  I would probably lean Sparty here just to be safe, but MSU just lost Branden Dawson for the year and that shifts things for me.  Dawson isn't just their second best inside scorer and rebounder, he's their best athlete.  The other inside players for the Spartans don't have anywhere near the athleticism of Dawson, and that's going to be sorely missed against a team like Memphis, which why I'm taking the Tigers.

The bottom half of the bracket is all about Marquette and Missouri, either of who could be a Final Four team and neither of which will have any issue reaching the Sweet 16 to face each other.  I give the edge to Mizzou because this game is going to be all about fire power and Missouri has just a bit more.  This might be the best game of the entire tournament.  And as far as early upsets in this region the only one I have outside of the Memphis thing is Virginia over Florida.  I once considered Florida a sleeper - and still would - but this matchup against UVA is a killer for them.  The Gators rely on the outside shot, which is what the Cavs completely excel at shutting down, and they don't play nearly good enough defense to make Virginia's lousy offense pay, and they don't have anybody who can handle Mike Scott.  I considered Long Beach but I think New Mexico is too hot and too good, and I was planning on having Murray State lose their first round matchup but then they pulled Colorado State and well, that ain't gonna happen.


EAST REGION:
Maybe the biggest question of the whole tournament is what to make of Syracuse now that Fab Melo is suspended for the tournament.  There is going to be a tendency to overreact, such as the line on their opening game against Asheville falling from -17 to -15.5 (note:  hit that -15.5 hard), but don't forget Syracuse is a very balanced, very good team, and even though their defense takes a pretty big hit with Melo out their offense is still going to be top notch.  They can easily make it to the Final Four, depending on match-ups.  So let's look.

One of the worst match-ups for the Orange could come in the second round against Kansas State.  The Wildcats are big and physical (which is why they swept Missouri) and absolutely crush on the offensive boards (6th in the country), which just happens to be Syracuse's biggest weakness (341st) and that was with Melo.  If K-State could shoot a little bit I'd feel a lot better, but between that and the fact and that I'm not even sure they can beat Southern Miss (although I think they probably can) means I'm pushing the Cuse through to the Elite 8 after beating Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 (I hate them, but I think they're peaking at the right time and Vandy is always ripe to throw up on themselves in the tournament).

In the bottom of the bracket I also see the seeds holding up and Ohio State and Florida State meeting in the Sweet 16 (only upset I have here is WVU over Gonzaga), which means I have seeds 1-4 in the round of 16 in this region which is lame but it's what I see.  Both these teams are very flawed offensively, but both play tremendous defense, so I expect this one to stay in the 50s and be close the whole way, but with FSU clicking on all cylinders right now I'll give them the nod.  And this is also where I see Syracuse's run ending, with FSU making the Final Four.  The Seminoles are one of the biggest teams in the country with a defense that can contain the Orange, and with their shooting starting to come around they can get their shots against that zone.  The Seminoles in the Final Four could only happen if they were the least flawed of a bunch of flawed high seeds, and that's exactly what we got here once Melo got suspended (Syracuse was my championship pick prior to the news).  It's going to be the winner of that FSU/Ohio State game, bank on it.


MIDWEST:
This one is pretty clear cut, and I can't see any reason this shouldn't come down to Kansas vs. UNC in the Elite 8.  The winner of Creighton/Alabama is probably the biggest threat to beat UNC before then (I have Creighton, but neither one is going to beat the Heels) because the bottom half of that bracket is just brutal.  Both Temple and Michigan are ripe to be upset in the first round, but with their opponents being Ohio and the winner of Cal/USF it just ain't going to happen.  I put Michigan in the Sweet 16 by default, but that's just a terrible grouping of teams.  Those who whine about UNC getting favorable treatment, well, you kind of got a point.

The bottom is where I see some really wacky shit happening, with all three first round games outside of Kansas being upsets (NC State over SDSU, Belmont over G-Town, and Purdue over St. Mary's).  I think the Boilers are better than the Gaels and NC State is peaking while SDSU is fading after doing it with smoke and mirrors most of the way, but the Belmont one probably needs more of an explanation than that.  For me it's not so much a matter of matchups or statistical analysis, but this one is more of a "feel" game for me.  Belmont is loaded with upper classmen and has building towards this for years, while Georgetown pretty much had to reset itself after last year and losing three top players to graduation.  They've had a good year despite that, but as stupid as it sounds this one feels like destiny.  Should be epic, and if Belmont can take care of G-Town I think they take down NC State as well before falling in the Sweet 16 to Kansas.

As far as that Elite 8 game goes between the Jayhawks and Tar Heels, it's weird because although I'm usually a Jayhawk hater dating back to Jacque Vaughn and Jeff Boschee and Eric Chenoweth and all those other nerds I'm on the bandwagon this year.  I absolutely love Thomas Robinson in a Blake Griffin (in college) kind of way, although he takes Griffin's size and athleticism and adds in an actual post game which is why he reminds me so much of Hakeem Olajuwon and I don't care who knows it.  Because of that and because I've seen North Carolina lose focus way too many times this year, I'm taking the Jayhawks.  Of course it also wouldn't surprise me to see UNC run the table the whole way, but I'm betting on Kansas (plus Self is a better game coach than Williams).  I just see Thomas Robinson doing a Danny Manning here, even if trusting Kansas in an NCAA Tournament is usually a foolish decision.

From there I have Kentucky over Kansas in the Final, which makes me sick because I hate thinking about watching Calipari win one.  Hopefully somebody can take them down, although if it's Wichita I'm going to hate myself for chickening out.

Finally, since I promised, here is that almond crusted fish recipe.  I made Grouper, but if you're in Minnesota it would probably work on tilapia or whatever else you can get.  Try it.  It'll change your life.

1/2 c. almonds chopped fine
1/4 c. olive oil
1/2 t. allspice
1/2 t. cayenne pepper
1 t. sea salt
1 t. black pepper
1 t. paprika

Mix all that together and then roll the fish around in it so it's got a nice count of the almonds.  Heat a pan to high and heat your oven to 400 degrees.  Throw the fish on the pan for 1 minute on each side to get a nice sear, then throw in the oven for 10 minutes or so depending on thickness.  Serve.

So good you'll go burn down your local Red Lobster.

Wednesday Writings

 So I decided not to watch the tivo'd version of the Gopher game.  I received some advice that really it would just frustrate me beyond belief, and I realized that makes a lot of sense.  I know as an alleged Gopher blogger watching the game would arm me with more information, but I'm thinking the trade-off between getting that info and wanting to kill myself like 30 different times made it not really worth it.  I do promise to have a preview up of the big Gopher/Wolverine tilt on Sunday, and have it up tomorrow night.  Really, I promise.  In the meantime, here's just a couple things about stuff.

-  I saw the most weirdest thing ever when watching the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas.  UTEP is playing Clemson and they (the Miners) go with the Triangle-and-2 on Andre Young and Tanner Smith, their two leading scorers and only two play-makers with the ball in their hands.  Not only that, but it was the most extreme T-and-2 I've ever seen.  They were actually guarding them wherever they went and not looking at the ball, so at times Smith and Young would stand out by the half court line and their defenders would follow, which meant the game basically turned into 3-on-3 on one end of the court.  It worked too, because those two scored just 14 points and tallied 4 assists (both about half their season average) and UTEP won by double-digits.  One of the weirdest, coolest things I've ever seen.

-  Let's check in real quick on my NCAA Wagers on teams to win the whole thing, and see where we stand:

• Vanderbilt 40-1 (current: 40-1).  They've lost every meaningful game they've played.  Consider this bet dead in the water.
• Wisconsin 50-1 (current 40-1).  I have no idea why I made this bet, but it came it at 1am on a Friday when I probably had a drink or two.  I think Wisconsin is incredibly overrated this year and they'll be lucky to win 10 Big 10 games so I don't think they remotely have a teeny tiny shot at winning the NCAA Tournament.  I guess I can consider this a hedge against the pure agony that would result if the Badgers did, in fact, find a way to win.
• Xavier 25 -1 (current: 40-1).  I have no idea why this number dropped.  The Musketeers dropped 3 of their last 4 but were dealing with the suspensions and other fallout from the fight with Cincy.  Prior to that they had wins over Vandy, Georgia, Purdue, and Butler.  None of those teams are good, but none of them are terrible either (well, maybe Butler) so X was rolling well pre-throwdown.  I don't know.  I'd recommend you take a look at this one if you are looking to throw some gambling money around.  I also just found that I have a little extra on these guys from even earlier at 60-1.  So that's good.
• Illinois 100-1 (current: 200-1).  Was purely a value play at the time.  Based on the athleticism of Paul and Richardson and the great off-season reports on Leonard I thought it was worth a shot.  Clearly that hasn't played itself out so far, but the win over Gonzaga and a 4-point loss to Mizzou say this team still has potential.  At 200-1 any person with a gambling account should throw $1 on this.
• Texas A&M 100-1 (current: 100-1).  Tough to get a read on these guys because they've spent most of the year without their best player, but he's back now and they lost to Rice.  Not loving this one.
• Syracuse 15-1 (current 6-1).  Feeling pretty good about this one, as the Cuse are one of the legit 5 best teams in the country. 
• New Mexico 100-1 (current: 300-1).  Garbage bet.
• Arizona 60-1 (current 60-1).  I have no idea why this number hasn't moved.  Arizona is completely awful and can't beat anybody.  On the bright side, they're in the Pac-12 which is like puking on your own face so they're guaranteed to at least make the tournament.  Kind of.
• Florida 40-1 (current 25-1).  My favorite bet.  The Gators pretty clearly had the kind of back court players that can lead you to a championship, the only question was if they'd have enough in the front court to be able to make a real push.  Patric Young and Erik Murphy have answered that and Florida might be the best "sleeper" team out there.  They hung right with Ohio State and Syracuse, blew out TAMU and FSU, and likely will only play 3-ranked teams the rest of the regular season (Kentucky twice and Miss State) so they'll end up with a favorable seed.  There's still value here at 25-1 - in fact I just threw a few more bucks at it.
• Missouri 75-1 (current 20-1).  My second favorite bet, if only because I have half the amount on Mizzou that I have on Florida.  Advanced metics adore what Missouri has done this year and it's tough to argue with the results because they're 12-0, ranked in the top 10, and have blown out pretty much everybody they've played.  I'm not sure there's value left here at 20-1 because that style of play can backfire hard, but if they swoon a bit and drop to 30 or 40 to 1 jump on that.
• Baylor 35-1 (current 10-1).  According to current odds (and preseason odds), the most likely winner I have money on and I do feel pretty good about it.  They're crushing teams, winning on the road, and winning some tough battles (including the semi-home win over a good Miss State team tonight).  I don't like them much at 10-1, but at 35-1 it was a great bet.
• UCONN 30-1 (current 20-1).  I grabbed this the minute it came across Twitter that Andre Drummond was going to be playing this year, before they had a chance to move the line (it moved all the way to 10-1).   It's tough to know where the value should be here because they haven't really been tested yet, but there's certainly plenty of talent.  And if Drummond keeps improving they could still end up snagging a 1 or 2 seed.  Really.  It's also my biggest bet out of all the futures I'm on, so I'd like this one to hit yes please.
• Iowa State 200-1 (current 500-1).  I took this one back in May.  Yes, May.  Figured it was worth a shot.  Oops.

 So that's where I stand.  Keep in mind I'm sort of addicted to future bets, because it's kind of like an investment.  For example, I lost about $100 on baseball futures this year, but because I made so many futures bets I had $700 come into my account.  So even though I pumped out $800, I pumped that out in March, then had the money come back way in October.  So in a weird way that's probably kind of stupid but whatever shut up it felt like I made a free $700.  So I keep doing it.  I have a ton of money into NFL futures (actually looks like it will be a real life profit), a ton in the NBA, and I even have money on Best Picture for the Oscars.  No, I'm pretty sure you have a problem.

-  I was going to write a bunch more about the NBA (Rubio rocks, Lakers suck), the Saints (Brees's record should really have an asterisk), Jayma Mayes (sneaky hot), and Ginger Snaps (underrated movie), but I'm bored now and to be honest that comment you had about my gambling problem really hurt.  I'm not mad mad, but I don't think we should talk for a little bit.  Just to show you there's no hard feelings I'll leave you with a pic of Katharine Isabelle (star of Ginger Snaps), but we probably shouldn't talk for a while.  Especially because you're going to say she's a plain jane, aren't you, you sick son of a bitch?

 

 

You gonna tell me this is a plain jane too, dickfuck?