Gophers vs. Clemson Live Blog

Since this is basically the only interesting home non-conference opponent the Gophers are going to face this year and since I cannot be in attendance I might as well live blog the game.

Before that though, I went to the Gopher football game this weekend and actually tailgated for the first time.  I know what you're thinking and yes there's probably something wrong with me, but it was my first time and it was a blast.  I got to hook up with a couple of old college buddies who were in town from Wisconsin (including WSCTQB who used to comment on this blog back when it didn't suck so much), fun internet dudes Disco Stu and Stryker, and a big chunk of the Gopher Blogger/Twitterverse including @TreTanic (and his brother who I don't believe is on twitter anywhere), @MVoDT, @jdmill, and @Swannosaurus.  I know I met other people but it's hard to remember because we did thinks like drink bourbon at 9:30am, destroy all of the beers, take an Uber from one parking lot to another, do back to back shots of fireball or fireball equivalent, and eat nothing but grilled sausages.  It ruled.  We also played a bunch of cornhole and MVoDT and I were the best team in history.  I wish I could say I remembered more of the game, but I don't and then I died the next morning.  Was a blast.

So anyone, on to the next crappy Gopher team.  They opened as a pick 'em against Clemson tonight and have been bet all the way to -2 at some places.  Which means someone is confident in the Gophers.  I myself am not.  Away we go.

Oh wait hold on.  We had our Big Ten Basketball Fantasy Draft last night.  Just a few notes:

• Keepers: Nate Mason, Caris Levert, Denzel Valentine, Robert Blackmon, Shep Garner, Jake Layman, Melo Trimble, Keita Bates-Diop.
• First round: Yogi Ferrell, Nigel Hayes, Malcolm Hill, Jarrod Uthoff, Isaac Hayes, Mike Thorne, Troy Williams, Shavon Shields.
• My team: Levert, Hayes, Derrick Walton, Brandon Taylor, Jae'Sean Tate, Adam Woodbury, and Carlos Morris.
• Gophers taken: Mason, Morris, Joey King
• I would also list which teams had the most and fewest players taken, but the website is being a dick and this is already boring.

And now away we go.

-  And the game won't load on the stupid WatchESPN app.  I swear to god someone will burn for this.

18:38 - It's 3-2 Clemson and I finally got it to load.  I'm shocked the Gophers alllowed a 3.  Shocked.

17:42 - Joey King posts up from about 16 out, then kicks a nice pass out of a double to Dupree McBrayer who first misses and easy rotation pass that would have resulted in an open 3, following that up by forcing up a terrible three pointer of his own.  Then Clemson hits a 3 in transition.  I can already sum this season up in once sequence.

17:14 - My son just snuck down to watch some of the game with me.  I want to forbid him from being a Gopher fan so, so bad.  Just as my Dad should have done for me.

15;50 - Buggs knocks down a 3 to make it 11-10 Clemson.  I still have no idea what to make of Buggs.

15:21 - Clemson has done two things so far this game - offensive rebounds and make 3s.  Stop me if you've heard this one before.

14:48 - Morris with a dumb floater that gets blocked, nobody fills to get back, layup Clemson.  This may be the year I actually quit this dumb blog.

13:40 - No defense on either side, so at least it's fun.  18-14 Clemson.

12:58 - Mason drives and doesn't score, nobody fills and gets back, easy lay-up Clemson.

12:21 - McBrayer looks pretty smooth.  Freshman-y, but smooth.  TO THE FUTURE!

12:06 - Murphy gets completely lost and it's another Clemson lay-up.  This is fairly unreal.

11:08 - Murphy's spin move from post to baseline, however, has gotten him multiple easy buckets this year including just now.  There's some potential from some of these guys, no doubt.

9:30 - Murphy now hits a free throw line jumper.  He's got an awfully good all around offensive game for a freshman.  I expect "lots of potential but lots of young mistakes" to be this year's theme.  Which I guess could be worse.

8:09 - And Murphy tip-dunk.  This is just a Jordan Murphy live blog, apparently.

7:16 - Carlos Morris takes the pass in the left corner with a small window if he wants to shoot, jab steps instead and creates a little bit of room if he wants to drive, instead pulls back and shoots a contested 3-pointer which doesn't even come close to going in.  This is what it sounds like when doves cry.

6:16 - Nice little double screen off the indbounds leads to a Mason jumper.  Pitino still excels at drawing up offensive plays, either half court or off the inbounds.  He sucks at a few things, but hopefully he'll learn, and he was more imaginative offensively than any other Gopher coach I can remember.  Also Clemson hit a three while I was typing that.

4:30 - Buggs airballs a 3 by about 3 feet.  Sure.  Why not.

3:22 - Clemson just made a pass from wing to wing you should never be able to make against an aggressive zone.  Led to a stupid 3, that went in of course, but just making that pass shouldn't happen.

2:50 - Joey King hits another open three and he's developed a pretty quick trigger.  He still can't create his own offense and I don't see Big Ten coaches being unable to take him completely away, but he's at least reached a point where they'll have to scheme for him.  Which I wouldn't have believed even a year ago.

0:30 - Clemson three.  I almost can't wait to look at their kenpom numbers tomorrow.  Hard to believe any other team in the country is getting killed by 3s like this.   42-36 half.  I'm going to go watch whatever dumb show my wife is watching.  I might be late for the second half.  OH NO.

19:10 - Mason is so solid shooting.  He's going to be really good.

17:24 - As I say that Mason gets caught standing around on defense.  Some of the mistakes this team makes.........

16:25 - Morris goes one on 3 and somehow manages to kick it to Buggs who takes a dumb contested 3-pointer.  Which hits front of rim, bounces up, and goes in.  We'll take it, but that is not good basketball.

15:05 - Man Murphy just owns the baseline.  Of course, then nobody gets back and it's yet another Clemson three.  51-50 Clemson.

14:04 - Another Clemson three on a drive and kick.  Can't fault the Gophers too much on that one, but man it's just such a common pattern.

13:30 - Announcer guy, "King in the post.  That's not really his offensive strength."  No shit.

12:19 - Buggs hits just a stupid, stupid three pointer.  Good for him I guess.

12:17 - I think I will have some sriracha beef jerky.

11:47 - Clemson sagging way off Dorsey already.  I was hoping that wouldn't happen.

11:25 -  Buggs fouled as he wildly drives the lane.  He's much better at that then when he wildly chucks up contested threes.

11:00 - Dorsey steal and is blocked on the lay up, goes to McBrayer who wildly throws it in the direction of the rim, and then Murphy (who else) with the three point play to put the Gophers up 58-56.  Huge coming out party against the Gophers toughest opponent to date.  I still think McBrayer is going to be my guy from this team (behind Mason, who is everyone's guy) but Murphy showing some real chops.

9:11 - Lotta ugly and fast basketball here.  Basically sums up the Pitino era so far.  And I'm a fan!!

8:30 - I think that's Jabal Abu-Shamala behind the bench.  Also the defense doesn't get back again.

8:22 - So I mention Shamala on twitter and my feed just blows up.  You know who else people mentioned?  Ryan Saunders and Blake Hoffarber.  So many racists on twitter.

5:31 - of course that goes in

5:12 - OH SHIT McBrayer is from NYC?  How the hell did I miss this?  I LOVE NYC point guards.  Told you he was my guy.

4:46 - Clemson misses a free throw.  Somehow the rebound goes out of bounds off the Gophers.  I need to drink more.

4:01 - Beautiful hesitation move into a lay-up by Dorsey.  I take it all back.  71-65 Gophers.

3:31 - King just gets manhandled by Clemson big guy for deep position and easy lay-up.  Probably shouldn't judge King on that since he shouldn't have to be in that position.  Going to anyway.

2:40 - Murphy goes baseline again.  Having an amazing game right now, 22 points and 8 rebounds on a team high 15 shots.  Love it.

1:10 - Murphy tip in to pretty much end the game (80-73) and he came from the complete opposite block to get around the defense and get to that ball.  What a game by this kid. Wow.

0:40 - Gophers up 85-78 and Pitino just called a timeout.  Which means I'm bored now and it's time to go watch crappy tv with the wife.  Jordan Murphy is amazing, and I see a ton of potential from Konate, Mason, Dorsey, and McBrayer.  With some size transferring in I am currently way to optimistic about next year.  Someone come hit me with something.

Gophers 84, Wake Forest 69

Ok so I was wrong.  Wake did get to the line a ton but didn't shoot well once there, the Gophers controlled their rebounding, and the Gophers shot the bell well and got a great night out of Andre Hollins.  Wake was as bad as I thought and the Gophers were just better.  It's nice to see them take care of business against an inferior opponent on the road, not that they'll have to do that again for a month or so.  Anyway, here's ten things.

1.  Can we get this Dre Hollins all the time?  Man is he fun to watch when he gets going like tonight.  It seems like it's been a rough go with him lately, what with his regression to chucker and turnover machine status so far this year, but tonight he had it all working again and it was glorious.  His shot was so on he was NBA Jam On Fire in the second half and he was active the whole game, resulting in 7 boards. He did have 3 turnovers but that's acceptable, even against 0 assists because he's just not a point guard anymore.  It's pretty much Mathieu or Mason getting the ball handling work, and I'm actually more comfortable with either of them than with Dre, so it works for me.  He's a scorer, so go be a scorer.

2.  The press continues to work.  You can't say Pitino hasn't changed this team's style, that's for sure.  They're fast - last night's game ended up at 77 possessions, just shy of the Louisville game and helped speed Wake up to a faster pace than they generally like, which ended up in sloppy possessions and a whole mess of Gopher turnovers once again.  Wake gave the ball away on 23% of their possessions with the Gophers stealing the ball 13 times (18 total TOs), an incredible number which upped their % to 14.7% on the year, 7th highest in the country.  It's worth mentioning that last night's press was more aggressive with trapping than the press usually is, suggesting Pitino knew Wake was a questionable ball handling team and intentionally upped the pressure.  It's a little thing and may seem obvious, but I know other coaches here didn't make little adjustments like that from game to game.  It's nice to see that attention to detail and willingness to tweak things based on opponent.

3.  The Gopher guards do a really nice job against ball screens.  Aaron Craft got a lot of pub last year about how he's the best defender ever and stuff like that, and he was good, but one of the things he was exceptional at was slithering over the top of a ball screen (Shannon Scott too, which is why OSU was so good defensively last year).  If you can slip between the screener and the ball handler, nobody has to hedge or help or switch or rotate, and it becomes a wasted motion by the offense that takes up time but does nothing towards getting the offensive team closer to scoring.  It's a valuable skill, and the Gopher guards are good at it (not Craft or Scott good, but good enough to be mentioned).  Mathieu is on that Scott/Craft level, Hollins can do it every time if his offensive game is clicking (yes, sorry, but his offensive game triggers his defensive level of effort, it's true), and I've seen Mason do it more often than you'd expect a freshman too.  It's not a stat and doesn't show up in the paper or our fantasy league, but it's a really valuable skill and three Gopher guards have it.  Nice.

4.  I'm going to say something nice about Carlos Morris.  There are parts of his undisciplined JuCo wild approach that work because of his athleticism.  Eight steals last night is awesome, and yes, many of them game with him gambling and taking chances (which is fine) and there were times he missed the steal and gave Wake an easy path to the basket or to break the press (which happens) but as long as his gambles are paying off with 8 steals, I'll take it.  I also really like how when he gets a rebound he'll just turn and book it down court.  Mathieu is the only other one who does that.  They just fly and then assess if they should continue to attack or pull back once they cross the timeline rather than let the defense get back and get set right away.  I love it, and I think more Gophers should do it when they get a board (NOT Joey King).  I didn't like Morris's shot selection, six turnovers, or that time he went up for a (ill advised) jumper and chucked the ball straight backwards, but I've been hammering on him and he's not really all bad, he just needs to be controlled a little bit - like a pet alligator.

5.  Beyond just Morris, this team turns into a really dumb team sometimes.  I really hate dumb teams.  As an avid gambler one of my biggest rules is "never bet on a dumb team."  It's one of my strongest rules along with "never take an under on Marcus Paige or Yogi Ferrell" and "don't ever bet on a football team who can't throw".  Sometimes, however, you don't know who is a dumb team, and sometimes smart teams turn into dumb teams, and all this is just me finding a way to say that I'm starting to fear that this Gopher team is dumb.  Dumb teams take stupid shots, make dumb turnovers, foul too much and at stupid times, miss tons of free throws, and give up easy buckets with defensive lapses including but not limited to not getting back in transition which the Gophers did like 117 times last game (I didn't count).  So far this year the Gophers take stupid shots, make dumb turnovers, foul too much and at stupid times, miss tons of free throws, and give up easy buckets with defensive lapses including but not limited to not getting back in transition.  I'm absolutely terrified for the rest of this year.

6.  The Gophers kept going to a pretty simple play, and it kept resulting in 3 points.  It's nothing special, really, but they used it several times and Hollins got two three-pointers out of it and King got one.  Shooter guy starts on one wing and just sprints to the opposite corner or wing, rubbing off a back pick on the near wing and a second pick on the opposite block.  It's basically just two picks, but it worked early for the Gophers and they kept going back to it, rightly so since it worked several times.  They also ran a modified version for Carlos Morris where instead of going to the corner or wing for a jumper he turned it into a curl cut where he's already moving towards the bucket when he receives the ball.  Good modification.  Good play.

7.  Josh Martin is going to be a really good rebounder some day.  His box score looks pretty brutal with just six minutes played and 1 rebound (to go with one missed shot, two turnovers, and two fouls) but I paid attention to Martin last night and I saw some promising things, mainly around rebounding.  Offensive or defensive, he was always in good position and got his hand on 2-3 other rebounds that he couldn't corral because his positioning was perfect.  He also got shoved almost all the way under the basket by some Wake guy on a free throw so we're still a little ways off, but he'll get there.  I'm going to say one year in the future he'll average as many as EIGHT rebounds per game. You heard it here first.

8.  Mo Walker, rim protector?  Walker is never going to be confused for Antoine Broxsie or Jerome Holman when it comes to shot blocking, what with 37 career blocks coming into this season, but suddenly he's a different defender.  The combination of the weight loss, recovery from injury, and the confidence he's gained after a successful season last year have him as active as I've ever seen defensively and it's paying off big time.  I always considered Eliason the defensive presence and Walker the offensive banger, but this year Walker is averaging 1.6 blocks in 20 minutes per game, blocking 9.8% of the opponents shot attempts while he's on the floor.  That's an incredible number that's doubled from last season and is almost 3 times higher than Eliason, and it ranks as the 42nd best percentage in DI (behind only A.J. Hammons, Alex Olah, and Michal Cekovsky in the B10).  I didn't notice this until last night when he was challenging, and blocking, shots but man, what a huge development.

9.  The Gophers look really good in transition, thanks to Mathieu.  Boy is this team fun to watch in transition.  I love when Mathieu just takes off and guys are sprinting to fill lanes.  He's incredibly good at being able to observe the defenders at 100mph and know when to go to the rim, when to pull back, and my favorite is when he'll kind of drift towards the off ball defender, knowing a teammate is screaming up the opposite wing and he can hit him with either pass leading towards the rim or a kick out for an open three attempt.  He struggles against teams who can challenge his quickness, but when he has it going like last night (8 assists) it's a thing of beauty.  I still wish he'd look for his shot a bit more since he is a quality shooter but he's down a full 2 shot attempts per game this year.  Don't worry, that's not a complaint.  Love this guy.

10.  So by my count the Big Ten now leads the challenge 6-2.  That's good!  They only need two more wins to win this thing which would be the sixth straight year of the Big Ten not losing after losing the first ten iterations of this thing.  Normally I'm not one who cares about rooting for your conference and usually I hope any and all rivals face ruthless and humiliating defeats whenever possible, but in this case Big Ten wins help the Gophers.  It bumps up any winning team's RPI, and by extension the whole conference's RPI, and if the B10 does well it helps the national perception of the teams which can only help in March when those nerds go into their sealed room and start talking about NCAA Tournament bids.  So yeah, in general I root for the Big Ten in these games, except for Iowa and I hope a black hole opens up in Madison tonight and swallows Wisconsin, Duke, and all the fans of those teams in attendance into Bolivian.  Who wouldn't want that?


So that's it for meaningful games until the conference slate opens on New Year's Eve at Purdue.  Until then it's a bunch of garbage.  Next up is Western Carolina on Wednesday, and other than Kevin Martin possibly showing up (it's his alma mater and the Wolves are in town, though they play the  Rockets and I don't know the rules like if he has to be there when he's hurt or if he can go to the Gopher game) there's not a whole lot to be excited about.  Really not the Martin thing either because meh.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Wake Forest

This Wake game just sucks.  Really sucks.  It's a total no win, big loss situation.  Wake Forest is not a very good team and they just lost at home to a horrendous Delaware State club so they shouldn't be scary.  That also means a win against them will mean nothing for their March hopes, and a loss will be a big black mark.  They'll be on the road, where they're always shaky, against an ACC opponent with one very strong skill (they're one of the best rebounding teams in the country and tops overall on not allowing offensive rebounds) in a game they can't afford to lose.  Doesn't seem fair.  They're going to be a 5 point favorite in a game where a loss is a major resume killer.  Sucks.  So I guess yeah just win.

The reason the Deacons control the boards mainly lies with the talents of 6-9 junior forward Devin Thomas, who 4th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 36% of all opponent missed shots when he's on the floor, adding up to 10.3 rebounds per game.  He's not a huge scorer (11.7ppg) but he's capable, having put up 19 against Arkansas, the best defensive team Wake has faced this year.  He mainly hangs around the bucket and is shooting 51% this year and he'll be a handful for Eliason and Walker to handle.  He also excels at getting to the line, drawing over 7 fouls per 40 minutes and having taken nearly as many free throws as field goals on the season.  I seriously doubt both, if any, of those two can avoid hacking away so that means we may see a hearty dose of Bakary Konate.  Sink or swim, kid, sink or swim.

The other Demon Deacon who deserves his own call out is Codi McIntyre-Miller, and not just because he spells his first name with an I.  He's a bit of an odd duck as a 6-3 guard who doesn't shoot 3-pointers (just 7 attempts this year), but's still managed to average 11.3 points per game this year though on 39% shooting.  He's the play maker and point guard for the team, though his assist numbers have taken a bit of a tumble this year and his turnovers have jumped up a bit.  The best news of all is that he's taking over 30% of his team's shots when he's on the floor with an eFG% of 39% and you know what that means - CHUCKER ALERT!  Always fun.

Behind those two there's a mishmash of 7 other guys who play 13 or more minutes per game, but none really standout.  Mitchell Wilbekin (6.9ppg, 1.6spg), brother of Scottie, is the other starting guard and a plus defender and the team's top three point threat (44% on about 4 attempts per game).  Cornelius Hudson (7ppg, 4.3rpg) starts on the wing and he's another great rebounder on this team, and Michael Crabtree's brother.  Down low Darius Leonard starts next to Thomas (6.6ppg, 3.4rpg).  He's not scary, though if it goes as expected and Joey King ends up guarding him who knows.  Off the bench Wake gets some scoring pop from 6-10 freshman Konstantinos Mitoglou (8.1ppg and 5.6rpg in just 18.1mpg) and 6-1 junior guard Madison Jones (7.1ppg, 2.9apg), another point guard who doesn't shoot threes.  There's a bunch of other guys here but Danny Manning mixes and matches a lot of guys, trying to find a workable and winning combination.  The seven I touched on here are the ones who should really impact the game.

Overall, Wake is a pretty bad team.  But they have a couple of big advantages:  They are a much better rebounding team than the Gophers and could end up getting a ton of o-boards while allowing Minnesota to grab zero of them, and they get to the line regularly and that's been the Gophers major weakness.  On the flippity flop, the Gophers create a ton of turnovers and Wake has been really sloppy with the ball this year, and even better most of their turnovers are coming via the steal and the Gophers are rocking the thefts this year.  Neither team can shoot though both share the ball well, so that's a push.  The way I see it, if you look at the four factors most highly correlated with winning basketball, there's one push (shooting), one where the Gophers have the edge (turnovers), and two go to Wake (rebounding, free throws). Add in Wake having home court and I struggle to see this going well for Minnesota.  Someone push the panic button.

Wake Forest 64, Minnesota 60.

Thursday Thoughts

-  So the "big" news of the day in Gopher land is that the Big 10/ACC Challenge match-ups were announced and the Gophers got screwed.  No, it's not Florida State for the 12th time, but they ended up getting slated to go on the road to Wake Forest.  Despite finishing 7th in the league, the Gophers get last season's 11th place Demon Deacons who are probably going to be even worse.  At the same time, the 6th place Hawkeyes get North Carolina, and Illinois and Indiana, who both finished below the Gophers, get much more favorable match-ups in Miami and Pitt, and last place Purdue got a fun match-up in NC State.  This is horseshit.

There are 14 Big Ten teams.  There are 15 ACC teams.  Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit.  No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th.  If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:

Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs.  Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs.  Illinois
Miami vs.  Indiana
Wake vs.   Penn State
Georgia Tech vs.  Northwestern
Notre Dame vs.  Purdue
BC vs.  Rutgers

Way better and much more fair.  Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards.  Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year.  One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters.  It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program.  Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me.  I need a drink.

-  Going with Knob Creek.

- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas.  You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher.  If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat.  Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk.  Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally.  Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).

Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out.  Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues.  I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN.  This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible.  So he's probably 50/50.  The NCAA is neat.

-  It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible.  Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?

The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed.   Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year.  Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):

• Ricky Nolasco:  6.67/5.36/4.32/1.75
• Phil Hughes:  5.14/3.42/3.72/1.39
• Kevin Correia:  7.33/4.21/5.24/1.67
• Mike Pelfrey:  7.32/8.22/6.87/1.88
• Kyle Gibson: 4.34/3.55/4.79/1.55

As Ian Malcolm once said, "that is one big pile of shit."  Gibson's the only one who has looked halfway decent but his last two outings have been pretty bad and I fear his hot start was mostly fluky.  Hughes has been far and away the second best starter on this team so far.  Phil Hughes!  The good news is most of these guys aren't quite as bad as they've looked since with one exception their FIPs and xFIPS are lower than their ERA, which suggests that either luck or bad defense is making things worse and considering the team's horrendous corner outfielders it could be that, but they aren't suddenly going to get better.  The bad news is that Mike Pelfrey might actually be worse than he's looked.  Worse!  

They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold.  Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year.  Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far.  Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today?  Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching.  And this pitching sucks.  At least

-  The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years.  Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.

My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1.  He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3.  He's also one of the best closers in the field.  If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge.  Like this horse a lot.  Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1.  Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner.  Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza.  Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1.  My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British."  So there you go.  I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners.  Looking to win big this year.

BOATLOADS!

(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)

Monday Musings

-  Biggest news of the day is the Big 10/ACC match-ups have been released, and your Gophers will be traveling to Tallahassee to play the Seminoles of FSU.  This should be one hell of a good test to see how good the Gophers are next season, because FSU loses only two of their top 6 players from last year's NCAA team, and they always play well at home (where they always seem to beat Duke or UNC every year).  Add in a very good recruiting class and their killer defense and this is one of the better teams the Gophers will face in non-conference play in the Tubby Smith-era.  If the Gophers can handle FSU's defense, they'll be able to handle any Big 10 team's defense.  I'm very much looking forward to this one.  With the Gophers in the Battle 4 Atlantis with team's like Duke, Missouri, Memphis, and Louisville they have all the potential in the world to build a really nice resume before we get to conference play.  Or crash and burn and make sure we all now we are once again in for another thrilling year of mediocrity.  I know which one I'm hoping for - although the mediocrity thing does have a comforting ring of familiarity to it.

The other matchups:

North Carolina @ Indiana - has the ring of a marquee matchup to it, but with Indiana installed as the favorite to win the National Championship by Vegas (it's true) and UNC basically gutted from last year this is going to be a 10+ point spread.

NC State @ Michigan - One of the three top matchups (along with Gophers/FSU and Duke/Ohio State), and a really good test for an NC State team that is suddenly finding itself the ACC favorite (even more so if Amile Jefferson picks them today/tomorrow).

Maryland @ Northwestern - The Terps lost most of their talent from an already poor team, while Northwestern's window has probably closed on that elusive first NCAA bid.  Even so, the Wildcats should walk here.

Iowa @ Virginia Tech - Va Tech is going to be super terrible this year, but this is actually a pretty perfect match-up for an Iowa team trying to reach up and grab mediocrity.  This game will go along way towards telling us if they're there yet or still a year away.

Nebraska @ Wake Forest - yeah nobody cares

Ohio State @ Duke - This will be billed as the top matchup and not without reason.  Having the game at Cameron evens the odds a bit, because OSU would roll if this was played in Columbus - and might anyway

Virginia @ Wisconsin - You ready to hear about what a great match-up this is and then be bored to sleep within the first five minutes?  This one might not break 70 total points.

Michigan State @ Miami - Really interesting match-up here.  The Spartans are probably better talent-wise but will still be working on playing without Draymond Green, while Miami has a nice core group of Durand Scott, Reggie Johnson, Kenny Kadji, and Shane Larkin back from last year's team that almost made the NCAA Tournament.  I think at home the Canes might sneak this one out.

Purdue @ Clemson - I have no idea what to make of Purdue this year since the whole team from two years ago is gone.  Clemson's losing it's entire starting back court who just happened to be their top two scorers.  Call this a toss up.

Georgia Tech @ Illinois - The Illini were horrid last year and now bring in a new coach.  Getting Georgia Tech at home is the kind of major opponent they need - shitty, but still a major conference team.

Boston College @ Penn State - oh my god, gross.

If I had to pick it right now, I'd go Florida State, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Wake, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Miami, Purdue, Illinois, and BC.  That's 7-4, Big 10.  

 -  One other college hooops note, I was going to do a little writing on Julius Mays, the guard who graduated from Wright State but still has a year of eligibility so was looking to do that thing where you pick a school you want to go to and then find a grad program they have that your current school doesn't offer so you can just transfer and play right away who was considering both Illinois and Purdue.  He would be a pretty important piece considering the lack of guards the Illini and Boilers are both currently sporting due to his 14 points per game and also because Julius Mays is a pretty sweet basketball name.  Kentucky, however, was also interested in Mr. Mays and because Kentucky is awesome and the Big 10 sucks, Mays will be a Wildcat next year so I guess there's not much more to say about that, is there?  These things will happen when you can't motivate yourself to post more than once a week because the Twins have punched you in the nuts.

-  Speaking of the Twins, yuck.  The worst part of this is that when your team totally sucks you should at least be able to look forward to watching the future start playing, but who on this team is even the future?  Scott Diamond, suddenly, and Brian Dozier?  Maybe?  There's suddenly no third basemen at all.  I mean there's nothing now that Valencia is apparently a total flop and Luke Hughes was traded or released or whatever.  We're looking at a solid 3 years or so of crappy old free agents before Miguel Sano is ready, assuming he sticks at third and doesn't get moved to the outfield.  Will it be Kevin Kouzmanoff next year?  Or Mark Teahen?  Maybe Ty Wigginton (that's who I'd put my money on)?  You can be sure that no matter what, he's going to be old and suck.  But at least Sano is keeping things interesting while we wait.  Big thanks for Snacks for emailing me this:

Sano stood in the batter’s box awhile to watch his homer against relief pitcher Carmine Giardiana. He trotted the bases, but virtually stopped a few feet before touching the plate, taking off his batting helmet as Kernels catcher Abel Baker barked at him.
Sano glared at the Kernels dugout after finally touching the plate, with Kernels players continuing to give him significant grief. He took a step toward Baker, and the dugouts began to empty, with umpires Fernando Rodriguez and Paul Clemons, as well as both teams’ coaching staffs, doing a good job of squelching what could have been an ugly scene.

Oh hell yes.  So anyway I don't really know what to make out of Scott Diamond or Brian Dozier, but at least so far they don't make me want to put myself into a coma until the end of baseball season so they got that going for them.  Considering Dozier is hitting just .250 and doesn't walk (with so-so pop) and Diamond has looked good in his two starts but is doing it with a ridiculously low BABIP I'm pretty much clearly grasping at straws, but I think straws is all we got.  Like a homeless clown at a chocolate milk collection.

-  I didn't really like Bryce Harper from day one since he sounded like kind of a douche, but I've done a 180 on him because apparently the mainstream media (more like Lame stream, amiright?) is way too all over hoping this kid fails and makes a fool of himself.  Over the weekend I saw a few different headlines and they were all like "Harper injures self in clubhouse tantrum" or "Harper may miss time after embarrassing spaz out" or something of that variety.  So I read them because, at that time, I wasn't a fan and was hoping it would be really bad (with apologies to Bryce's dad, who was maybe the second best Twins' catcher ever), but holy shit are people stupid.  After going 0-5 with 3 strikeouts he hit the wall with his bat, which ricocheted and hit him in the head.  First of all, who hasn't done something similar like hitting the wall with your bat?  Secondly, when do you think the last time this kid went 0-5 with 3 ks was?  I'm going to guess never, which will probably torque you off a bit, and hitting something with a bat has got to be nearly as common place as getting crabs from a "fan" when you're a major leaguer (or minors even, from what I hear Brendan Donnelly). 

Between this retarded witch hunt and Harper's attitude after getting intentionally beaned by Cole Hamels - all he did was trot to first with no looks, no attitude, no nothing - I'm starting to become a fan.  Then you add him to the best pitcher in world history in Stephen Strasburg, one of my personal faves in Gio Gonzalez, the underrated Jordan Zimmerman, a bunch of young players who some of at least have to workout, and yet another future star in minor leaguer Anthony Rendon and I'm suddenly a Nationals fan.  May even have to get a hat.  But they also have Jayson Werth, so I really can't be that much of a fan.  F that guy.

-  Apparently Josh Hamilton is over how he killed that guy because in case the Twins have made you turn off baseball for good this year he's destroying everything that gets thrown near him.  I find it semi-fascinating because I am fascinated easily but also because he's such a unique player.  Without getting bogged down in the nitty gritty stat world, he's aggressive as hell and swings at anything.  He swings at the highest percentage of pitches of anyone in the majors, and the rest of the guys on the list are either shitty hackers (Clint Barmes, Delmon Young), strikeout machines without the power (Alfonso Soriano, Chris Davis), or solid, but not power, hitters (Starlin Castro, Brandon Phillips).  Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera are #11 and #14 on the list and are near his production levels, but they do it because they make contact a lot with all those swings (85% and 83%) while Hamilton is at just 67%.  In fact, that 67% is the fourth worst in the majors behind human fan machines Yeonis Cespedes, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Gonzalez.  So he swings at way too many pitches and misses way too many of them, yet he's leading the majors in basically everything.

So how is he doing this?  Obviously by crushing the ball when he does make contact, but it's not by hitting line drives where he's around league average, it's that when he gets the ball in the air it's flying over the fence.  Nearly half of the flyballs he's hit this year have been home runs, tops in the league (Matt Kemp is the only other player even close to Hamilton), more than double his usual percentage, and a number nobody has approached like, ever (or since 2002 when this data became available).  He's also hitting .407 on balls in play, but the numbers say that should be around .330 even on this hot streak.  So I got some news for ya - Hamilton is going to go down in a big way, whether it's simple regression, injury, gets a hankerin' to chase the dragon again, or finally gets charged for murdering that guy with a baseball.  If you have him in fantasy, trade him.  Or just watch him burn.

Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Virgina Cavaliers

Tonight your beloved Minnesota Golden Gophers basketball team will welcome the Virginia Cavaliers to Williams Arena for the opening match-up of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.  A chance to get a quality win, you ask?  An opportunity to get a feel for how good the Gophers can be against a quality foe, you wonder? 

No.  Not at all.

Unfortunately, the way the match-ups fell gives the Gophers a sub-par opponent in the Cavs, a team that won just five conference games last year and saw it's best player booted due to academics, the starting point guard go down due to knee injury before the season started, and last year's top recruit transfer to Central Florida.  Tony Bennett has the program moving in the right direction, and next year's recruiting class is one of the better ones in the country, but this year this team is sort of, well, not good.

They are 3-3, and did manage a win over Oklahoma - but then that same Oklahoma team lost to Chaminade.  The good, or even mediocre, teams Virginia has played have all won handily (Wichita State by 12, Stanford by 19, and Washington by an absurd 43), and so should Minnesota. 

The biggest concern when it comes to defending Virginia is power forward Mike Scott, a bruising double-double machine (17 pts, 9 rebs per game this year) who has been basically doing the same thing for three years.  He's not a star, but he's an outstanding player, who is unfortunately been thrust into the "#1 option" role when he should probably be more of a complimentary player.  I say that because he is too easy to shut down at times, as shown by the 0 point/3 rebs, 0 point/1 reb, and 2 point/1 reb. lines he put up in ACC play last year.  He also has absolutely nothing playing next to him in the paint - the next five leading scorers are all guards, only one other post player averages more than 1.8 points per game, and that guy (Will Sherrill) is more of a perimeter guy, with 20 of his 28 field goal attempts on the year from behind the three point line.

So clearly this is a guard oriented team, and that's reflected in two of their strengths - they don't turn the ball over a ton (81st in the country) and they shoot well from three (39.4% - 46th in the country), and contrary to what you'd expect, they are excellent at keeping their opponents off the offensive boards (34th in the country).  Also contrary to what you would expect, they are absolutely god awful against the three-pointer, with their opponents shooting 46.6% on the year, 339th in the country - their are only 345 teams.  They are also no very good against 2-pointers, allowing 48.4% shooting and ranking 198th.  An efficient offensive team like the Gophers should be able to absolutely shred them.  Look for Hoff to hit about 8 three-pointers.

And that should be enough.  Hoff should have good looks from three most of the game, along with Devoe Joseph if he plays, and Sampson, Mbakwe and company should be able to find open spots in the paint all game.  I expect this to be similar to the Western Kentucky game in that the Gophers will probably shoot around 60% or so, although scoring will probably be down because Virginia plays a much slower game than WKU, and there should be fewer turnovers.  That kind of scoring efficiency is going to be touch for the Cavs to deal with, especially since their best player isn't a "carry the team" type and should be bracketed by the Gophers' bigs fairly effectively.  The one danger is that Virginia gets ridiculously hot from three - and they can. 

The Cavs shot over 45% from three twice this year, and guards Billy Baron (brother of former Rhode Island sharp shooter Jimmy), Joe Harris, and Mustapha Farrakhan as well as Sherrill have all hit at least three three-pointers in a single game.  If multiple guys are hot tonight, and it's possible given that the Gophers are thoroughly average at defending the three, there does exist a non-zero possibility of an upset.  Ken Pomeroy gives Virginia a 12% chance of winning.  I'd put it at more like 4%.

Minnesota 75, Virginia 60 

Big Ten/ACC notes from Whore-lando

Yep, back again for Whore-lando part III while I watch the rest of the Big Ten/ACC games, currently watching Penn State look really, really good. Not Colton Iverson good, but like, Devoe Joseph good without the potential to be a rock star. Had a nice dinner with only two drinks (Oceanaire - they have one here too; Blackened Grouper with creamed corn and a cup of clam chowder, all really freaking good). Hit the hotel bar for a couple of cranberry vodkas, possibly my new drink, and might have stayed longer if not for the absolutely terrifying female bartender. She looked like a biker chick, but not the good kind or even the interesting kind. More like the kind who is probably the next Aileen Wuornos. She gave me a look at one point that almost made me pee my pants before I figured out it was her version of a smile. Then, when I left, she asked if I was going to join the people at the karaoke bar in another area of the resort. I said no and she said if I did she would sing me a song. I think I ran the rest of the way back to my room, I mean Villa. Luckily, the fridge is still stocked. So sit back, take it slow, and let the good times roll.

- Am I drunk or has the Big Ten looked really good this year, at least comparatively? Penn State is up 9 right now at Georgia Tech with just five minutes left, Michigan hung tough with the same Maryland team who just beat Michigan State but looks like they're gonna fold now, Ohio State won at Miami, Iowa was right there with BC, and Illinois was right with Clemson before giving it up at home. Like your mom. It looks like it will be 5-4 ACC after the early games finish, but it seems like the Big Ten took a nice step into competitiveness this year. Kind of like a fifteen year old against a full grown adult in hoops compared to the 8 year old they've been the past however many years.

- Did you see that Tyler Smith had a triple double tonight against UNC-Asheville with 12/10/10? That's pretty good. I'm going to go ahead and file him away in my 'WHO WAS AWESOME' possibilities mental folder along with the unicycle lady.

- Michigan State embarrassing themselves with their defense right now, just letting Danny Green shoot and score every time UNC has the ball. They're playing defense like Snacks controlling Michigan State on Coach K, still the best college basketball video game of all-time. Any game that has Ricky Price and Charlie Miller as two of the best players on the game clearly knows what it's doing. Or maybe I was just that good.

- So, wait? Kevin and Pat Williams still get to play? How does this work? Is like when Travis Henry got busted for smoking the pot for like the twelfth time but still managed to play all of last season? Is it just fancy legal maneuvering? I need a lawyer to explain, and not an intellectual property lawyer, I mean a real lawyer.

- Draymond Green just got schooled by Ed Davis. He's no Ralph Sampson.

- Ty Lawson is the next Jacque Vaughn. Or TJ Ford. Or whoever. You know the type, college point guards who play the position well but can't shoot. Like Limar Wilson without the point guard skills.

- Hansbrough is just like Travis Busch, everytime he gets the ball in a scoring area he puts it up. Never passes ever. They're practically the same player.

- UNC leads 53-39 at half, and I'm pretty sure the Heels are shooting 101% from the floor. Northwestern hanging with the Seminoles for now, down just 1 with six minutes to go in the half. It's 17-16 though. Not exactly UNC/MSU here.

- Man, the Wolves played the Magic here in Orlando tonight, I'm totally bummed I didn't go, I love the NBA. I also think I read somewhere that Corey Brewer is out for the year for the Wolves. That sucks. How is he going to prove me right that he would be the best player in his draft class not named Durant or Oden? I guess we'll have to put that on hold for the year, and this might affect his entire career. It's only fair that we no longer count that prediction as valid. Sorry, I don't make the rules.

- Northwestern just missed three shots at the end of the half, all from 8 feet or closer. If you could some up the entirety of the history of the Northwestern program in 10 seconds, that was it.

- You know what the Gophers should do each year? Have like, a midwest challenge tournament, whether official or unofficial. I think the Iowa schools all play each other each year, I'm not sure if it's officially a tournament or not but I'm pretty sure they do. You could get Minnesota, Iowa State, Marquette, and Nebraska or Missouri as your big conference schools. Since you can't do Northern Iowa or Drake because I think they play ISU every year, or Creighton because they play Nebraska, you could go with someone else from the Missouri Valley - anybody would do but Southern Illinois would be great. Then grab UW-GB, UW-Milwaukee, or UI-Chicago from the Horizon, NDSU from the Summit (and kill the regular game each year), and a MAC team, maybe a directional Michigan school. You could rotate some of the teams each year from the minor conferences, or just keep it the same each year. This way you have no conference conflicts or anything, and you could do an 8 team tournament each year. Is this something that could happen? I don't really know the rules on this, but it sounds pretty freaking awesome.

- Jesus these games are boring. Michigan State is getting blown away, and the FSU/Northwestern game is quite the comedy of errors. That's the kind of comedy that isn't funny. And I'm kind of tired. Might have to call it a night.

- Sigh. This is what drives me crazy. Dickie V, the announcer for this UNC game, just commented on how good Tar Heel freshman Ed Davis has looked. He then said, "he's not a big name or a high level recruit, he's just a good kid who Roy Williams really liked, and he's rewarded him thus far." I knew that I knew about Ed Davis long before he signed, and sure enough, a quick check of the Rivals Top 150 has Davis as the 15th best recruit this season. He's also the top rated Carolina recruit. So pretty much the opposite of "not a big time recruit." It's like listening to Joe Morgan over here.

- I hate that firejoemorgan.com decided to quit.

- Did I mention that we were named one of the top 100 college sports blogs?

Big Ten/ACC challenge

I'm not going to lie to you, constant reader, I'm reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaly drunk right now, here in Whore-lando (I consider that quite clever) but I feel I should make some sort of attempt to say something about the Big 10/ACC challenge because apparently it's a big deal even though the ACC runs right through the big ten like buffalo wings through my colon. I will say before i get to the stuff that Orlando is quite lame. Every restaurant here is god awful. It's all chains, except for the Angus Steak Grill which we went to tonight and got humped in the butt. The food was awful. Worse than Olive Garden. For reals. But my hotel room (villa) is huge. And that light that says I have a message keeps blinking on my phone, but I don't know how to answer it.nb

Wisconsin got the Big Ten off to a nice start tonight, beating V-Tech, a pretty good team, on their own turf. According to the box score I found, it looks like it was a very good game, with both teams shooting well and rebounding well, and nobody turning it over like Rico Tucker on a fast break. Great win for the Badgers, and for the Big Ten.

Unfortunately it's not a one game playoff, and all the teams have to play. I'm going to do this quickly because otherwise I will pass out and miss my seminar tomorrow and that woudl be a shame.

Iowa @ BC - Iowa sucks. They are the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. I don't think BC is anything special, but their win against UAB in whatever that tournament was is a good win, even if Robert Vaden shoots more than Jesus. BC takes this one and takes Floyd of Rosedale home with them.

Ohio State @ Miami - This would be a Buckeye win, but it gets a bit trickier being on the road. I know PJS over at the The Daily Gopher is in love with Miami, and honestly you should head over there for a better look at the matchups, but frankly he's wrong and Miami sucks. They have no good wins on the year, no matter how much you want to suck off San Diego (spanish for whale's vagina). I know everyone thinks McClinton is the cats pajamas, but you know what? He's not. And also even if he was you need more than that to win games. I'm giving this one to the Buckeyes. Jay Burson 4-eva!!!!!!!!!!!

Clemson @ Illinois - Wow, two mediocre teams with good records. Seems like the standard at this point in the season. I hearted the Illini last year big time and they broke my heart, so I can't even begin to believe in them now. Plus Merl Code was a pimp. Plus, Clemson lost a couple dudes from last year, but they're still a pretty stellar team. Who's good on Illinois? Their leading scorer and rebounder is Mike Davis, and I don't even know who that is, so he's probably bad.

Duke @ Purdue - There's no real reason why Duke should lose here, unless Purdue is really that good. And they might be. I can't deny it. E'Twaun Moore can score with anybody, like The Todd, and they should pose a real threat to the little girl Dukies. Call me optimistic, but I'm giving this one to Purdue. I think they are the real deal, just like J.D. Durbin.

Virginia @ Minnesota - The Gophers have to win this game to be taken seriously. That alone scares me. But Virginia is not a major threat. An ACC team is always a bit scary against the slow ass teams in the Big Ten, but the Cavs are not good - unless Harold Deane and Curtis "the Curt Man" Staples are rolling into Williams. They gave the Cuse a bit of a scare this weekend, but also lost to Liberty at home. Freshman Slyven Landesberg is the new Sean Singletary without the PG skills and is averaging 21ppg, but the Gophers should have the pieces to slow the swingman down. I'm giving this one to Minnesota.

Indiana @ Wake Forest - If the Hoosiers were at home, they'd lose this one by twenty. So being at Wake, this is going to be an absolute blowout. I also read today over at the Daily Gopher that almost Gopher Verdell Jones got hurt in a bad way in their last game. Hope it's not a major deal. I'd like to see him lose his job to that weirdo walk-on guy legitimately. Could be a Nancy Kerrigan/Tonya Harding deal. Stay tuned.

Michigan @ Maryland - Remember when the Wolverines beat UCLA? Was that their whole deal? I don't know, it seems a bit fluky when the Bruins are so young, but it's still a great win. I would love to see this game played at Ann Arbor, because the Terps showed they have some serious game with their win over Michigan State this weekend. With the game being in Maryland, I don't think Michigan, even improved as they are, has much of a chance against that foreign point guard and the Terps.

Penn State @ Georgia Tech - This would be a pretty good football game, with the edge to the Yellow Jackets. Unfortunately it's basketball. I also found a picture of myself at Valley Fair with my date the day after prom my junior year, and I chose to wear a G-Tech shirt with an obnoxious G-Tech hat. Still got some though. Holla.

UNC @ Michigan State - this is a biggie. The Spartans have illusions of being a national title contender this year, and this will go a long way towards letting everyone else know. Yet, the loss to Maryland this weekend looms large in my brain, as does the fact that this is a Big Ten team. I just can't seem them keeping up with the Heels, even in East Lansing.

Florida State @ Northwestern - it would be great if the Big Ten didn't have to include every team in the conference.

I have it at 7-4 ACC, but I could be wrong because math is hard. Go Gophers.

Gophers vs. Seminoles

Big game coming up tomorrow between the Gophers and Florida State in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, and it should be a good one. While the Gophers have started out 3-0, including a decent win @ Iowa State, FSU so far is a complete and total mystery. When you lose a player like Al Thornton, it can be tough to recover, but he was their only loss and they haven't been bad, they've just been confusing.

FSU lost to both Cleveland State and South Florida in a tournament, and it looked like this would be a lost season for the Seminoles, and they'd be a terrible team. Just when everything looked down, they went into Gainesville and knocked off the Florida Gators 65-51, which is an extremely impressive victory.

It all basically means that FSU can't afford to drop any more winnable games. The win at Florida is a signature win, and it will look good on an NCAA tournament resume, but the two bad losses are going to be tough to overcome if FSU ends up a bubble team. A win against another likely bubble team in the Gophers is almost mandatory, unless they decide to go on a huge run in the ACC - unlikely. After Minnesota, the Seminoles have only one other game against a NCAA tournament possibility before the ACC season starts - At Butler, a game they likely won't win.

FSU is a perimeter based team, which will help the Gophers. Their top three scorers this season are all 6-3 or smaller, in guards Isaiah Swann (16.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.9 apg), Toney Douglas (12.4 ppg, 2.9 apg), and Jason Rich (10.6 ppg). They do have a quality center in Uche Echefu (10.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg), but he doesn't have much help. Right now sophomore Ryan Reid is getting most of the minutes, but that's because two highly touted freshman recruits aren't as ready to play as hoped in Solomon Alabi (5 minutes per game) and Julian Vaughn (16 mpg).

There is some good news and some bad news in this matchup:

1. Dan Coleman won't have to play defense. Well, obviously he'll have to play a little, but with only one threat to score in the post, Echefu, being a bigger guy, he'll draw Tollackson and Williams, leaving Coleman the easier matchup on either Reid or Vaughn. This is very good news, since Coleman still can't play defense. Coleman may end up with his best offensive game of the season, since he won't have to bang around on the other end.

2. Who is going to handle those three guards? The Gophers have plenty of guards, but the only one I completely trust defensively is McKenzie. I have high hopes for Westbrook and Nolen, but I don't know if they're ready for this caliber of foe. One thing is for sure, none of Shamala, Hoffarber, or Payton are going to be able to handle any one of those guards. Hopefully Tubby will come up with the right scheme to handle FSU's offense. I'm thinking a mix of 3-2 and man-to-man when the matchups are right.

[EDIT: I have been informed by some Florida State people that Echefu has moved over to PF, with Reid and Vaughn playing center. I'm not sure how much this matters. Tollackson has to be on Echefu, and they have to hope Coleman can handle whoever the other big is. I'm nervous about an Echefu/Vaughn pairing, because Echefu can score, and Vaughn is 6-10, 245. I'm not sure who you put Coleman on. I guess you'd almost have to put him on Echefu when Vaughn is in the game, and hope he figures out a way to stop him. Yikes. I don't like this one bit.]

Basically the keys to this game break down into being able to handle the crowd, being able to handle a more athletic team, and being able to handle defensive pressure. I don't like the fact that the Gophers turned it over 24 times against Central Michigan, and are now facing a much better, much more athletic team on the road. I like what they are doing this year, but I don't see them being able to take this one, even with the magical Tubby Smith. Florida State 77, Minnesota 70 - as the ACC takes another one. Here's how I see the challenge breaking down this year:

Wake over Iowa
Virginia over Northwestern
Indiana over G-Tech
Duke over Wisconsin
FSU over Minnesota
Clemson over Purdue
Mich St over NC State
Illinois over Maryland
BC over Michigan
Ohio St over UNC
V-Tech over Penn State

For a 7-4 ACC victory. Also congratulations to the Big Ten for being 0-6 all-time in the Old Spice Classic (Minn 0-3 last year, Penn St 0-3 this year). The good news is that they're sending Michigan State next year, so unless something bizarre happens, the B10 should finally pick up a win.

Finally, two quick football notes before I'm done:

1. It was an excellent win yesterday for the Vikings. Going into the Meadowlands and destroying the Giants, but let's all calm down. The Vikings aren't making the playoffs. Relax. And did you see Peyton Manning was at the game? Do you think he's just laughing the whole time watching Eli? He probably calls him between possessions, "Eli? You suck dude. Do you just want me to come down and there and do it for you? You're embarrassing the family." And then he films another commercial.

2. Hey, guy wearing your high school letter jacket that points out that you graduated three years ago but are still wearing your jacket anyway: When you are at a bar where you want to watch the Vikings game, and you see three guys sitting at a table for four and there's an open chair - it is NOT an invitation to sit down. Especially when you are super fan, and really we're just there to casually watch and eat free tacos and drink beer, not to get far, far too into the game. Remember when the Vikings scored that defensive touchdown, and you put up your stubby little hand for a high five? Those four seconds of hesitation, before I reluctantly and with no enthusiasm reached out and gently touched your greasy hand, were a message. Stop being you. There's a reason we went somewhere else for the second half.

Wake Forest -3 @ Iowa
Washington -22.5 vs. Long Beach
Appalachian State +5 vs. Davidson
Arizona St -11 vs. Cal Poly

Yesterday: 2-4
Season: 45-41

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Announced

And the mighty Gophers will travel to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles, Tuesday, November 27. Minnesota is 3-5 overall in Big Ten/ACC Challenge games, while Florida State is 5-3, the teams have played twice before and split, with the road team winning each game.

Florida State was 22-13 last season, just missing the NCAA tournament, and won two NIT games. The Seminoles lost Third Team All-American Al Thornton to graduation, but they still have at least three players who are better than any Gopher, and should win the game by 20.

The other matchups:

Wake Forest @ Iowa
Georgia Tech @ Indiana
Northwestern @ Virginia
Wisconsin @ Duke
Purdue @ Clemson
NC State @ Michigan St
Illinois @ Maryland
BC @ Michigan
North Carolina @ Ohio St
Va Tech @ Penn State

I predict the Big 10 to go 5-7 and lose the Commissioner's Cup for the ninth straight year.