Sweet 16 Thoughts - Thursday

So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected.  All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early.  My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues.  Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking.  Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:

#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford. 
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played.  There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy.  Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton.  Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.

It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win.  I'm on Stanford here laying the three.

#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach.  I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time.  More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism?  Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career.  Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7.  Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?

Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot.  Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works.  This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline.  Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard.  Also possible.

#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here.  They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well.  They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin.  They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.

I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately.  For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves.  No chance.  Florida -4.5 for three units.  I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock.  Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.

#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone.  San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames.  You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly.  I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.

Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim.  Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers.  Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots.  I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close.  I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units.  I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would.  Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5. 

Reid Travis to God Damn Stanford

Back with more plus game recap Monday.  I need many drinks.

Words on the NCAA Basketball Season

With little to no action on the recruiting front (although our new best friend Nate Mason was on campus this weekend) and nothing worth talking Twins about, I haven't posted in a while.  But here I am, watching both baseball and football, and I was missing you guys so I should write some words.

-  Ok so spoiler alert, I'm pretty lazy busy now a days and don't get to post as much.  Therefore, I likely won't be doing that thing where I preview a whole bunch of college basketball teams this year because that takes a shit ton of time and I don't think anybody reads them anyway.  But I feel I must call your attention to a team that is not getting the respect they deserve, a team I have ranked as the 3rd best in the country behind Michigan State and Louisville - The Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Most prediction things I've looked at have them somewhere in the 20s, and that is just way way way wrong.   Did we all forget just how far one great player can take a team in college basketball?  Carmelo Anthony?  Danny Manning?  Hell, Kemba Walker?  Marcus Smart is one that level.  But lest you think this is a one person team, Markel Brown and LeBryan Nash are here too.  The only thing missing is a good big man, but they have a ton of options so if they can cobble together forty minutes of competent big man play each game (they only need one "big guy" because Nash is big enough to play the 4 unless they need to go big) this team is going to be a serious, serious contender.  Currently 25-1 or 40-1 to win the whole thing at some books.  Get in there now.

-  Speaking of, here are your contenders this year:  Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Louisville, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Kansas, Syracuse, VCU and Wisconsin (gross, but true.  I'm high on Dekker).  That's it.  I think UCONN could be a bit of a sleeper too, seems like everybody has forgotten about them but they have a pretty nice squad coming back.  On the opposite end, I think Indiana falls off a cliff.  I know Noah Vonleh is supposed to be a stud, but when the rest of your offense is going to reliant on Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey you're in trouble.  The only exception is if Evan Gordon (transfer from Arizona State) ends up being a stud, but he's on his third team of his career for a reason.  Then again, he's already 22 (and a half) so maybe he'll have some of that Mbakwe stuff going on, although I don't know how much that'll help a guard.  Plus, I hate Indiana a lot, so there's that too.

-  If you want another team that could surprise, but in more of a rising from projected bubble team to a top 5 seed, you should consider Stanford.  Nobody really is predicting them to do much, but it's basically the third year with the same core group but they added Chasson Randle last year.  Two years ago they won the NIT, then had a really disappointing season landing back in the NIT last year.  They just couldn't get over the hump, losing something like six games by five points or fewer, and I think with another year, particularly for Randle, they'll win more of those games and contend for the Pac-12 title.  And then probably make Reid Travis fall more in love with them.  Great.  We're doomed.

-  Speaking of doomed, I just want to mention the loony bin that is the Gopher Hole, where apparently if Rashad Vaughn ends up at either Iowa State or UNLV those programs are clearly crooked.  Honest to god, the prestige rankings over there are something like:
1. Michigan State
2.  Ohio State
3. Indiana
4. Michigan
5.  Duke
6.  North Carolina
7.  Louisville (shot up the rankings this year)
8.  Kansas
9.  Minnesota

Seriously.  Then there's a huge gap and everyone else is in the 100s with Iowa State at the very bottom.  That place has gotten damn near unreadable due to all the Minnesota high school talent for 2014.  Did you know that any Minnesota kid, or any kid considering Minnesota, who ends up going to a different school was clearly enticed by some sort of illegal or shady benefit?  It's true.

-  Should I elaborate on my Wisconsin thoughts a bit?  Yeah, probably since I'm saying they're going to be really good but I hate them.  Assuming Josh Gasser is fully back, he and Ben Brust give the Badgers one of the best back courts in the country.  Wait let me clarify.  I don't mean one of the best back courts in the country in terms of talent or ability or anything like that, I mean best back courts as in best fits for their team's system.  Their boring, boring system.  I don't remember the last time they had two guards who fit this well, but this is like if Jordan Taylor and Trevon Hughes played together and were white.

Then you bring in Sam Dekker, who I think is going to be an absolute monster, and this is a crazy, crazy talented team for a Wisconsin club.  The only real concern is in the front court, except that's never a concern for Wisconsin because there's always some giant hulking shlub who can go from nothing to 10 & 8 in no time flat because Bo Ryan has some sort of grinchy magical powers when it comes to 6-8 frumps.  I don't know if it'll be an old guy (Frank Kaminsky/Zach Bohanon/Evan Anderson) or a new guy (Nigel Hayes) but the last thing you ever need to worry about when it comes to Wisconsin is them getting front court production.  Add in their best 3-man back court I can remember and their boring, boring system of boring their opponent to death and the Badgers are sneaky dangerous this year.  And that sucks.

-  Overall the Big 10 is going to be tough this year, but I see four pretty distinct tiers:
TIER 1:  Michigan State
TIER 2:  Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa
TIER 3:  Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota
TIER 4:  Northwestern, Nebraska, Penn State

There's some chance for movement between these of course - Michigan State, Ohio State, or Wisconsin could end up as good as Michigan State.  Iowa or Illinois could drop.  Northwestern could jump up, but pretty much this is how I see it so I guess I'm saying the Gophers could finish anywhere from 6th to 10th, and because their schedule is so weak this year it's going to be an uphill battle to get to the NCAA Tournament again.  Obviously not impossible or anything, but keep an eye on the Maui tournament - the results there could end up being huge for the Gophers' RPI.





-  Your most likely high profile coach to get canned this year is Rick Barnes at Texas which makes sense because he's a terrible game coach.  He was always a hell of a recruiter and rode those abilities to a stretch of five Sweet 16s in eight years, but the Longhorns missed the NCAA Tournament last year (for the first time since 1998, but still it was pretty bad) with a losing season and they're poised to have an even worse year this season.  Myck Kabongo left for the NBA (or wherever, considering he didn't get drafted) and Julien Lewis and Shelden McClellan transferred, Ioannis Papapetrou signed to play pro ball overseas, and Javan Felix is injured and out for an indefinite amount of time.  With a not very strong recruiting class coming in this is going to be an ugly year.  Maybe his past success combined with the current rough circumstances will buy him some more time, but Texas is not a very patient school and also Rick Barnes is almost worse than Bruce Weber.

-  As far as Kentucky goes this year, I know a lot of people are ready to hand them the title since they have the best recruiting class of all-time coming in and some established talent already in place and frankly it's not a bad call.  It really is the greatest collection of talent I can remember in college basketball in the early entry era, at least on paper.  Calipari showed how this kind of plan can work two years ago when he won the national title, but he's had the same basic play every since he came to Kentucky and still only has the one title in four years, while missing the tournament altogether last season.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be the favorite, but there is some truth to the old saying, "not enough basketballs to go around."  That Kentucky team that won the National Championship was supremely talented, but that talent came mainly in the form of players who could impact the game without needing the ball.  Anthony Davis was a defensive force, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was an all-around stud, Marquis Teague was happy to let others take the shots, and even Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones had no problem taking a back seat when necessary for the good of the team.  That was the problem with the John Wall team (a team that, granted, made the Elite 8) - Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Patterson, and DeMarcus Cousins were all ball dominating players.  I'm interested to see where this new group falls, because the talent level really is insane, and like nothing we've ever seen before.


-   One of the unintended consequences of all this conference realignment stuff going on is the complete weakening of the mid-majors as the bigger conference get stronger by pilfering the top programs from all over the country.  The only mid-majors worth a damn (WCC, A-10, Missouri Valley, and Mountain West if you consider them a mid-major) were either strengthened or completely untouched by realignment.  Look at once strong conferences like Conference USA, the Colonial, and the Horizon have been gutted. 

C-USA has become 16 crappy teams, everyone has fled the Colonial to the point where the team that just joined up, College of Charleston, is probably the most historically successful program in the conference, and the Horizon is now looking at Wright State and Cleveland State as it's shining stars.  Perhaps the worst is the WAC, which was never you know, awesome or anything, but it has been completely gutted.  The #1 team is now New Mexico State, but even worse the #2 squad is Idaho or Cal State Bakersfield.  Bakersfield!  I'm not even sure if any of these teams here outside of NMSU have ever been to the NCAA Tournament.  I mean they probably have or something, but I'll be damned if I remember.  Sure, this all makes for better games in the major conferences, but I'm a little sad about how crappy all the mid-majors are now.  Well, I'm over it now.

-   There is now a team in D-I basketball called the University of the Incarnate Word Cardinals (of course they're the Cardinals).  They're ineligible for the NCAA Tournament this year as they make the transition to D-I, but they're joining the Southland along with Abilene Christian and Houston Baptist.  Soon it seems the Southland will be called the Holy Conference.  Or something more clever than that.  Shut up I'm tired.

-  Lastly, here's my shot at your projected NCAA Tournament teams by conference.  We'll see how I do:
ACC (5):  Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame
AAC (4):  Louisville, Memphis, UCONN, Cincinnati
A-10 (3):  VCU, LaSalle, St. Louis
America East (1):  Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun (1):  Florida Gulf Coast
Big East (5):  Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Creighton
Big 10 (5):  Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana
Big 12 (5):  Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State
Big Sky (1):  Weber State
Big South (1):  High Point
Big West (1):  Long Beach
C-USA (1):  Louisiana Tech
Colonial (1):  Drexel
Horizon (1):  Wright State
Ivy (1):  Harvard
Mountain West (4):  New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Boise State
Missouri Valley (2):  Wichita State, Indiana State
MAC (1):  Akron
MAAC (1):  Manhattan
MEAC (1):  Morgan State
NEC (1):  Bryant
Ohio Valley (1):  Belmont
Pac-12 (5):  Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford
Patriot (1):  Lafayette
SEC (6):  Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Missouri
SoCon (1):  Elon
Southland (1):  Houston State
Summit (1):  Denver
Sun Belt (1):  Western Kentucky
SWAC (1):  Texas Southern
WAC (1):  New Mexico State
WCC (2):  Gonzaga, BYU
 
You know what's crazy?  When I did this without worrying about counting how many bids I was giving out on my first pass I came out with 67 teams.  Just had to add one to round it out.   I ended up making it Indiana which was perfect because I didn't feel good about just five teams coming out of the Big 10, but I have no idea who the sixth one will be.  Indiana, like I said, has a million question marks, I hate Illinois, and I don't think Purdue or Minnesota have the pieces.  Whatever.  I'm pretty dumb anyway so say la vee.

Battle 4 Atlantis Mini-Preview

Hey.  Still in Utah.  Ended up computer-less for the last two days due to circumstances you don't really care about.  But with the Battle 4 Atlantis kicking off tomorrow I might as well do a  quick little preview on the teams, starting with Duke since we know that's who the Gophers play in Round 1.

The Blue Devils are always good, but are generally at their best when they share the ball and have a wealth of scoring option rather than a single player who dominates the ball - which is how this team is constructed this year.

Center Mason Plumlee and wing Seth Curry are the two main pieces for the Dukies.  Plumlee leads Duke in both scoring (21.7 per game) and rebounding (8.7) and has been extremely efficient this year hitting from the floor at a 77% clip.  Obviously that's unsustainable, and according to what I've read about Plumlee he's pretty much been converting dunks and lay-ups and doesn't look to make any kind of actual post move very often.  He's not particularly athletic or strong, so if Mbakwe is back to where he was last year he should be able to destroy him in the paint, and there's a non-zero possibility that he literally kills Plumlee with a dunk in his face.  The way I think of it, and I apologize for this extremely nerdy analogy, is if you're playing chess and suddenly your opponent has his queen in your space and you know you're going to get destroyed, you just hope to hold on and minimize the damage.  That's Mbakwe in this game because Plumlee is really the only post player Duke has and he can't handle Mbakwe.  In fact, if I'm Coach K I figure out who Mbakwe is guarding (most likely Plumlee) and feed him the ball as often as possible after telling him his job is to draw fouls.  I can see Mbakwe being so amped up for this game that he won't be able to settle down and two quick fouls is a very real, and very bad, possibility for the Gophers.

Curry, the brother of all-time chucker Stephen Curry, has a bit of chucker in him (he leads Duke in shot attempts) but plays more under control in Duke's system than his brother did.  Between he and Rasheed Sulaimon the Gopher guards are going to have their hands full.  Both can score inside or out and both hit 40% or better from three this season, and Sulaimon is a big-time distributor, averaging 3.7 assists and a total of 11 versus just 4 turnovers - great numbers for a freshman at the beginning of his career.  Add in the mid-range game of Ryan Kelly (40% 3-pt shooter last year) and his ability to find the open man (2.7 assists per game this year for a 6-11 player) and if the Gophers try to play zone this game is already over.

The key for Minnesota will be in their defense, shooting, and taking care of the ball.  That sounds like every game I know, but it's especially meaningful in this match-up.  Duke has won (the three wins:  Georgia State, Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast) by being an extremely efficient shooting team, whether due to shot selection, dead-eye accuracy, or a little of both.  They shoot 38.4% from 3 this year (67th in the country) and 55.5% from two (33rd), and when combined that makes them the 28th best shooting team in the country.  On the flip side, the Gophers are #1 in the country in opponent's effective field goal percentage, holding teams to 19.1% from three (#9) and 32.7% from two (3rd).  That will likely be the main difference in the game.

The Gophers have big-time opportunities here in offensive rebounding and three-point shooting.  Duke is not a particularly good defensive rebounding team where the Gophers excel at crashing the offensive glass, and Duke really struggles to defend the three (opponents shoot 40.8% behind the arc, 313th in the country).   The Gophers aren't a great shooting team behind the line but they aren't terrible either, the key will be in knocking down those opportunities for open looks that Duke will definitely give up.  The other watch-out for the Gophers is taking care of the ball.  Duke plays a swarming man-to-man that causes a lot of turnovers, something that has been a major struggle for Minnesota so far this year.  If this ends up being a blow-out in Duke's favor this will be the reason why.

All-in-all, the Gophers have an excellent opportunity here to grab a big-time win.  Their strengths have a chance to either neutralize Duke's strengths or exploit a Blue Devil weakness.  The game should be a good one, and Kenpom.com calls it a 1-point Dukie victory.  If the Gophers can take care of the ball, knock down open shots, control the paint, and limit Duke's three-point shooting they can win this game.  To me, that's just too much to ask.  Not to mention if the Gophers end up in a close game or have a small lead Coach K could coach circles around Tubby Smith, and no matter how well the Gophers play I don't know that they can overcome that advantage.

Duke 70, Minnesota 64.

In game 2 the Gophers will face either Memphis or VCU.  Memphis is currently ranked in the high teens while VCU is just behind the Gophers in "others receiving votes", and although the Tigers would clearly be the higher profile win since they're considered a Final Four contender a win over either would go a long way in March.

Memphis has started slowly, winning both of their games so far but by just 15 or 11 against extremely poor competition (North Florida and Samford).  They're not a very good shooting team and that's continued this season (just 29.4% from 3), and rely more on their guards slashing and getting into the paint through penetration - and they're very good at it.  Joe Jackson, Antonio Barton, and Chris Crawford are a very good three guard lineup, but one the Gophers should be able to match-up with pretty well with the Hollins brothers.  The issue lies with that third guard because Joe Coleman is absolutely brutal defensively and Julian Welch isn't quick enough.  Memphis only has one true post player in Tarik Black who Mbakwe should be able to handle on his own, so I'd expect the Gophers to use Rodney on one of the guards and hope they can muster enough help defense so they don't get destroyed down low by Adonis Thomas.  I don't like this match-up for the Gophers and I wouldn't expect them to win this game.

VCU, on the other hand, is a game Minnesota has to have if they want a good seed in March, particularly if they meet the Rams in the losers' bracket.  That's not to say VCU is bad - you'd have to be a fool to overlook a Shaka Smart team at this point and the Rams should end up hovering around the top 25 all season - it's just that if the Gophers are the team I hope and think they can be this is a game they'll win.

VCU does return four starters from last year's team who won a game in the NCAA Tournament and their style makes me very nervous.  VCU plays an attacking style of defense designed to force steals - and it works (VCU led the nation in steals last season with a mark that was the highest of the last four years).  With all the guards the Gophers have on paper they should be able to handle this, but on paper they're also turning the ball over this year at a rate that's one of the worst in the country.  When the Rams have the ball Minnesota should be able to handle them.  Although they're a very athletic and balanced team they rely on those steals to key their offense.  If Minnesota takes care of the basketball they should win - although that's a very big if.

Game three will come against one of Louisville, Northern Iowa, Missouri, or Stanford.  I'd guess it'll be Louisville in the Championship, Missouri in the third place game, Stanford for consolation, and Northern Iowa in the worst case scenario.

Louisville is my pick for National Champ and they play an absolutely suffocating defense.  They've crushed all three opponents this year by at least 26 points and although the competition has been poor their play is what you'd expect in those situations.  While the Gophers play great shot defense and VCU creates a ton of turnovers the Cardinals do both.  Their only real weakness is they aren't a great shooting team, but I don't think that would matter.  I don't think the Gophers would have a prayer and would be lucky to get to 50 points.  If they end up playing Louisville it's a success because it likely means they won two games already.

Missouri would be another extremely touch match-up for the Gophers simply because of their speed and back-court strength.  They're very similar to VCU in style of play and personnel, with both teams playing a pressing, attacking style but not necessarily pushing tempo on offense.  I would be pretty excited for this match-up, simply because I'd love to watch Andre Hollins go up against Phil Pressey, who I think is the best point guard in the NCAA.  Actually, what I'd really love is for Hollins to just sit and watch tape of Pressey and absorb it, but somehow I think getting schooled by him might do it better.  Best case?  Hollins holds his own and is better than expected.  Worst case?  He learns and gets better.  Win-win?  Yes, I agree that's a pretty generous "worst case" but it's my blog so STFU.

If they end up playing Stanford or Northern Iowa something has gone wrong, although say, losing to Duke and then beating VCU wouldn't necessarily qualify as a disaster, but in any case they have absolutely got to beat either of these squads if they match-up.  Stanford, the nerds who beat the Gophers in the NIT last year, have been dreadful this year and are one of the worst shooting teams in the country which you wouldn't expect from a bunch of nerds who should know geometry and angles and stuff.  Maybe they aren't real smart kids but fake smart kids like when Doug was hired to be a lawyer on King of Queens just because he was good at softball.  Northwestern should take notes.  But anyway these dorks just lost to Belmont.

Northern Iowa, long removed from the great days of Ali Faroukmanesh, doesn't necessarily have a blemish on their record, but one of their wins was over a non D-I team and another took overtime to beat Toledo.  Despite that level of competition they simply refuse to cause turnovers which means the one way to really beat the Gophers if you're worse than them is something the Panthers don't do.  To lose this game would be a travesty like Super Bowl XL or Fletch 2.


Here are your acceptable outcomes:

1.  Win the whole thing
2.  Win the first two
3.  Beat Duke (the next two don't matter if you get that one)
4.  Win consolation

That's it.  That means the Gophers, at a minimum, need to win two games or beat Duke in the first game.  Anything else would be a failure.  I don't like failure.

DWG NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #38-34

Way to go, Kyle Lohse.  You might as well just come to my house and steal my money.  And it's not just Lohse, it's everybody - not only the Cardinals but the entire National League.  The Giants suck.  I'm sorry, it's just a fact, but everyone seems to just lay down and die.  The Cards, a normally excellent fielding team, have given more free runs away this series than they've scored and suddenly the Cards can't hit Barry Zito?  I can't believe I'm going to have to be a Tiger fan for the Series.  Gross.  But I sure as shit can't root for the Giants.  I feel sick.  Whatever.  Let's look at some chicks and talk some roundball.

38.  Texas Longhorns.  Similar to last year's team, this Texas squad will be deep and talented in the back court with major question marks in the front court.  Dissimilar to last year's team, they won't have last year's leading scorer in the Big 12 (at 20.1ppg) J'Covan Brown, who left the team to enter the NBA draft and then didn't get drafted like a genius.  Stupid name guy Myck Kabongo will be the key as the team's point guard and best player, but his status is currently in limbo due to some agent related nonsense.  Although the agent is the same guy who represents Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph and Kabongo is also part of that bizarre Canada/Texas pipeline, so I'm pretty sure he's definitely guilty of whatever.  I believe suspension is the only answer.  

37.  Miami Hurricanes.  It's very possible I'm overrating the Canes since my ranking for them (particularly ahead of FSU) doesn't seem to jibe with most others I've seen, but I like a lot about this team.  Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji are both double-double threats at all times and averaged 22 points and 13 rebounds per game between them.  Johnson is 6-10, 292 lbs.  Kadji is 6-11, 242 lbs.  They're both seniors so they aren't about to fuck around this season.  They do lose two of last year's three starting guards, but they get by far the best one back in Durand Scott, and Shane Larkin (yes, Barry's kid) is going to be in his second year and can give the Canes a real live point guard for the first time in a while.  He was one of the best point guard prospects a year ago and had a decent freshman year, but it's time for him to step up to the plate and go yard from the duguot with a rosin bag before the Hurricanes boot one and strike out in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded.

36.  Valparaiso Crusaders.  Valpo won the Horizon regular season title last year before getting crushed by Detroit in the Horizon Tournament Final, but with their top two players and lots of seniors back they are the favorite to take the conference again, and hopefully (for them) not flame out again.  And if they make the tournament you'll hear way too much about them because, admittedly, they're kind of an interesting team.  The coach is Bryce Drew who hit the second greatest shot in NCAA Tournament history (behind that dude from Northwestern State who hit the shot to knock out Iowa because fuck Iowa).  Their best player (and last season's conference player of the year) was a finalist to make the Australian Olympic team.  Their second best player has played internationally for both the Canary Islands and the Netherlands.   They have a dude from Jamaica.  They have guys who transferred from Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Indiana, Hawaii, Cal, South Florida, and Rice.  Seriously it's ridiculous.  I haven't seen this many transfers since Tark's days at Fresno.  Plus they have a guy with the last name Buggs, and since we all know Charles Buggs is going to be a superstar I can only assume the same for a guy who I assume is related.

35.  Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys season will basically come down to what kind of changes LeBryan Nash made this offseason.  Nash was the team's best player last season, should be again this year, and is probably the best player to suit up for OSU since JamesOn Curry.  The bad news, however, is that he shot an appalling 39% including just 24% from three despite jacking up the second most shots on the squad (behind the departed bomber Keiton Page).  He balanced out his poor shooting and shot selection by averaging just 1.5 assists per game and getting almost no steals.  He's insanely talented and if he can play smarter and maybe hit a jumper here and there these guys should be in line for an NCAA bid.  And hey, if everything works out he can become the next JamesOn Curry and enter the NBA draft after his junior year and then fail to get drafted in the first round.  It's good to have dreams.

 34.  Stanford Cardinal.  Yes, the dreaded Cardinal.  Enders of the Gophers season and world champions of the NIT.  And, as we all know, winning the NIT is a strong predictor of future success the following season.  I'm just kidding of course, it means exactly jack shit.  More than anything it's just says you were a crappy team that couldn't be bothered to get into the NCAA Tournament, and barring a stellar recruiting class coming in you're probably still terrible.  And they are.  They have a good back court in Chasson Randle and Aaron Bright and some decently experienced guys, but nothing really special.  Which is why they're ranked 34th and are incredibly boring.  Or maybe they're ranked 34th because they're boring?  I don't know.  I'm tired and hate Kyle Lohse.

Now that I think about it, Detroit gets to set their rotation with Verlander first and I assume Scherzer second and will have the option to go with JV three times.  The Giants will have to go with Lincecum and Zito to start it off and will only get to throw Cain once.  I'm thinking we make some money on the Tigers.  We goin' Sizzla.


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Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39

NCAA Basketball Preview - The Pac 12

Here's what you need to know about the Pac-12 this year - they're going to be bad again.  Once again, the Pac teams have been hit hard by attrition and although they continue to pull in a good share of stud recruits, the players are leaving more quickly than they can be replaced.  If there was an easy way to look this up without having to straight count it or if there was a page with bids by conference by year, but there's not, so instead I'll just point out how the Pac has struggled even getting 2-3 teams bids in the last few seasons.

They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss.  Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico.  Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league.  They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.

Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.

1.  CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS.  Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard.  And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season.  Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here.  And speaking of running.........

2.  UCLA BRUINS.  Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department.  Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition.   Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive.  The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina.  Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility.  As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac.  And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent.  So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).

3.  WASHINGTON HUSKIES.  Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning.  No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue.  And thank god.  Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to.  Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina.  The tempo is just out of this world.  Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!    

4.  ARIZONA WILDCATS.  This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone.  Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall).  Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.

5.  STANFORD CARDINAL.  Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always.  Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability.  The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.

6.  OREGON DUCKS.  I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman.  I'm just kidding - it's the attrition.  But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What?  It counts.  Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene.  Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system.  Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year.  Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.

7.  ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS.  There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State.  Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense.  He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge.  The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix.  King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice.  Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.

8.  WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS.  Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA.  What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey.  They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist.  Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly.  If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.

9.  OREGON STATE BEAVERS.  I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old.  Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country.  Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in.  So yeah, not a sleeper.

10.  USC TROJANS.  Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith.  Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career.  Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.   

11.  COLORADO BUFFALOES.  Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year.  Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT.  Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement.  Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop.  I heard it's a fun town though.

12.  UTAH UTES.  Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power?  Well that's not really relevant here.  Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season.  They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn.  Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.


Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10

Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview

Last year was nearly a disaster for the Pac-10, where getting even two teams NCAA bids was looking like it might not happen even late in the year, but this year things should be a little better.  Washington and Arizona should be among the elite teams in the nation, and a number of other teams should be improved.  Of course, that's basically the scouting report from last year, just replace Arizona with Cal, and that was a struggle, so who knows.  These guys play their games so late that nobody is watching anyway.  Except degenerate gamblers.  Hi.

1.  Washington Huskies.  One thing is for certain, the Huskies play an exciting brand of basketball.  I remember being in Chicago for their game against New Mexico, and just being mesmerized by how fast the pace of the game was.  Me, Bogart, and Snacks had all bet the over, so each time little tiny Isaiah Thomas got the ball, sprinted down court past all the Lobos and made a layup we cheered and fell in love with him a little bit more.  The game ended up being a blowout, so the pace slackened and that over never cashed, but the moral of the story is that Washington is awesome.  Quincy Pondexter is gone, but Justin Holiday should step in fine, and their three guard lineup of Thomas, Venoy Overton, and Abdul Gaddy are as good as it gets.  Rather than fighting for a bid like last year, the Huskies should have theirs locked up by January.

2.  Arizona Wildcats.  Arizona's streak of 25 straight NCAA Tournament bids was snapped last season, but they should be back again after losing only the disappointing Nic Wise, who never made the leap they were looking for last season.  Derrick Williams was terrific in his freshman season, averaging 16 pts and 7 boards per game while shooting 57% and looking straight dominant at times, with 23 points or more five times last season.  Williams is surrounded by plenty of other talent, but replacing Wise, who might not have been great but was certainly good, at the point is going to be the real key to the season.  Lamont Jones came in last season with a good pedigree but struggled at times.  If he hasn't improved this prediction is going to look awfully silly.  Might end up being the first prediction I've ever whiffed on - ever.

3.  UCLA Bruins.  Despite what seems to be near constant defections, whether to the NBA or to other programs, over the last few years, UCLA does seem to be on the way back.  Looking at just the stats of the returnees you wouldn't be impressed, but these guys have talent.  Tyler Honeycutt (last year's Rivals #28 overall) is well on his way to becoming a do everything type stud, Malcolm Lee really started to come into his own last year (12 pts, 3 ast per game), and nerdy Reeves Nelson (11pts, 6 rebs as a frosh) is already showing an impressive array of low-post moves. Add to that group Rivals #18 recruiting class and they're looking to be in good shape, assuming people stop transferring.  Plus in the good news department, their top recruit, center Josh Smith (#23 overall) who weighed in at 305 lbs. has reportedly lost a bunch of weight and is in (relatively) great shape.  Plus, don't you just feel better when UCLA is good?  It's just icky otherwise.  

4.  Washington State Cougars.  They're getting an awful lot of press due to Klay Thompson, which makes sense because he's probably the only player in the league who might be better than Derrick Williams from Zona.  His low shooting percentage (41%) and high turnovers (3.4 TO to 2.3 assists) are the only blemishes on his record, but those numbers should improve with better/improved teammates in Pullman this year.  The real question is will he have better teammates, because outside of point guard Reggie Moore everybody is a questions mark.  In a normal year in a normal conference, one great player, one good player, and a bunch of questions wouldn't make you the fourth best team, but the Pac-10 is down once again, so Wazzou should be in play for an NCAA berth.

5.  USC Trojans.  They definitely have a great inside tandem, maybe the best in the conference, with Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stepheson in the paint.  Vucevic was called "the best true center in the conference" in an article I saw, and his numbers bear that out as he averaged nearly a triple double last year (10.7 pts/9.4 rebs per) and blocked more than one shot per game, while Stepheson was one of the highest rated recruits in the country coming out of high school and on his way to North Carolina in 2006.  He hasn't quite put it all together yet, but he's got one last chance.  This team will be especially interesting when Jio Fontan, an outstanding point guard who transferred from Fordham and will be eligible mid-season, joins the team to balance out the inside strength with a perimeter threat.


6.  Stanford Cardinal.  Losing Landry Jones, who led the conference in scoring and was second in rebounding last year, is definitely a bit of a buzzkill, but at least they have Jeremy Green back to soften the blow (16.6 ppg) as well as three other starters, and they're going to need every bit of that experience because everybody else on the roster is either a walk-on, a benchwarmer, or a freshman.  There is certainly some talent mixed up with these freshman - PF Dwight Powell is Rivals #25 overall recruit, while SG Anthony Brown is #65 - so there's certainly some upside here.  If the youngsters are ready to play the Cardinal could move up a few spots.  Plus this conference sucks, so anybody with a pulse could move up a few spots.

7.  Arizona State Sun Devils.  They certainly like to shoot the three, leading the conference last year in attempts by over 100 over the second place team, and they also lost both their penetrating point guard and their only inside presence, and are left with just five scholarship players from last year back this year, two of whom are dandies who only shoot threes.  With your #1 PG and #1 post player gone, how open are those looks going to be?  Now, some of the newcomers have talent and could step in - Keala King is the #8 PG in the country according to rivals and could step in at the point immediately - but there is still a distinct lack of big men that will limit how much ASU can accomplish.  But at least they still have the hottest chicks in the land.  Seriously, check out the internet sometime.

8.  Oregon State Beavers.  They looked to have a little momentum going into last year and were considered a bit of a sleeper in a weak Pac-10, but unfortunately couldn't capitalize, and now nobody cares again.  That center with the weird name is gone, the Tarvers (no relation to Miles) are gone.  Calvin Haynes is apparently a very good offensive player but I wouldn't know because I don't think I've watched an OSU game since the days of Corey Benjamin, partially because they're never on TV and partially because they're usually boring and/or bad.  I have, however, giggled about the nickname Beavers recently.  Because I'm 12.

9.  California Golden Bears.  I'm not sure any team, outside of Kentucky, lost as much from last year as the Bears, and this year is going to be rough.  Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher might have been the two best guards in the conference last season, and they're both gone, as are third-leading scorer Theo Robertson and only viable inside presence (and fourth leading scorer) Jamal Boykin.  But, as Denise Fleming (who is not a tampon) said in Can't Hardly Wait, "Don't look back, you should never look back", so instead let's talk about what the Bears have going for them this year.  It's nothing.

10.  Oregon Ducks.  I'll say this about the Pac, it's easy to pick the last place team because the Ducks are an absolute disaster right now - like Iowa, but worse.  After Ernie Kent was fired there was such a mass exodus of players that I can't even keep up, which is made extra difficult because I don't pay particular attention to Oregon basketball.  Four of the players transferring were bench players with varying degrees of playing time, but Michael Dunigan - who just signed to play in Israel - would have been their top returning post player.  The lack of depth will be exacerbated by de-commits by incoming freshman (I can't find a list anywhere, but I know there have been some) leaving the Ducks with just 9 scholarship players, most of which are pretty mediocre.  New coach Dana Altman has already signed a very good class for 2011, but according to NCAA rules none of those players can play this year.

Other Previews:
ACC
Big 12

NCAA Basketball Preview: The Pac 10

You know what I really dig about this conference, other than the beautiful weather and smoking hot chicks, is that every team is paired up with another from the same area, and they always play the same teams in the same week.  You have UCLA/USC, Arizona/Arizona St, Washington/Wash St., Oregon/Oregon St., and Cal/Stanford, and they always travel together.  So like UCLA would play Arizona on a Thursday and Arizona State on a Saturday, while USC would play Ariz State on the Thursday and Arizona on Saturday.  I don't know why, but I find that very cool and interesting.  Probably because I'm a nerd.

With all the Gopher news, the Gopher game, and the World Series going on this week, not to mention my award-winning interview with Larry and Magic, I haven't had a whole lot of research time, so this will be shorter than usual.  And let's be honest, nobody reads my previews anyway.  I could post bible verses for each team's synopsis and it would go unnoticed unless somebody was searching for "Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live", but that person would have plenty of other problems anyway.


1.  Washington.  I've been waiting for this team to make a big leap for a few years now, and with the Pac down overall this might be the year they finally pull it off.  The loss of Jon Brockman to graduation leaves them with a huge hole in the paint, but their guards should be top notch with Rivals #13 Abdul Gaddy joining sophomore Isaiah Thomas.  I'm a huge Quincy Pondexter, mainly because he has a funny name, but with those two distributing the ball he should be poised for a breakout year.

2.  California.  Completely unheralded, but with a very solid backcourt with Jerome Randle the penetrator/scorer/distributor and Patrick Christopher the shooter - both were all Pac-10 last season.  PF Jamal Boykin may be the key to them being an NCAA Tournament contender as opposed to just an NCAA Tournament team again.  He was a big time recruit who had signed on with Duke before transferring to Berkeley.  He hasn't exactly lived up to his potential, but he has improved every season thus far.  Now in his senior year, it's his last chance to shine.

3.  UCLA.  In terms of scoring and minutes returning, there's not much, and some communist is their leading returner in both.  In terms of talent, there's plenty here.  Four top 100 recruits this year join four top 50s from last year.  In other words, they are probably going to be very good, but also very inconsistent.  They also needed a three pointer with 16 seconds left to beat an NAIA school earlier this week in an exhibition, so looks like they're starting slow, but should be pretty solid by midseason or so.

4.  Oregon State.  Not a misprint.  The Beavers should be pretty decent this year, but I've never heard of a single player on that team, assuming Wes Washington and Corey Benjamin are gone.  I know that was years ago but come on, Vasquez is still on Maryland and I'm pretty sure his freshman year begin with 19.  They play the Princeton style offense.  Yawn.

5.  Arizona.  It was looking even worse for the Wildcats this year, but Sean Miller made some very big freshman signings in the late signing period, and it will be up to those freshmen how good Arizona will be this year.  They could be first, they could be 8th, but fifth sounds right.  Nic Wise could easily end up leading the conference in both scoring and assists. 

6.  Oregon.  The Ducks lost 23 games last year, in no small part because their point guard, Earl Boykins wannabe Tajuan Porter, shouldn't be a point guard, what with his more turnovers than assists - and just 1.8 assists per game and his aggressive shooting (7th in the conference in FG attempts despite under 40% shooting).  The good news is they are supposed to have some JuCo point guard who can come in and run the show.  Even so, Porter will need to avoid the 6-15 type nights that popped up regularly last year.

7.  USC.  The Trojans lost three players to the NBA draft and, amidst scandal, lost nearly every recruit they signed this offseason, but there is still some talent here.  They get their top scorer back in guard Dwight Lewis, who outscored Taj Gibson, Demar Derozan, and Daniel Hackett last season, as well as Marcus Johnson, a transfer from UCONN.  Power forwad Alex Stepheson was a top fifty player when he signed with North Carolina in 2006 and a minor contributor on the team before deciding to transfer back to L.A. to be closer to his family.  On a team this thin, he'll have every opportunity to justify that rank.

8.  Washington State.  The cougars crazy run of boring everybody to tears and winning when the other team fell asleep should finally come to an end, with three starters and major contributors leaving as well as captain boring Tony Bennett leaving for Virginia.  I did read somewhere that Klay Thompson is projected to be the best NBAer currently in the Pac 10, so if you have a chance to catch one of their games it sounds like that would be a good time.

9.  Arizona State.  I just read something that picked the Sun Devils as fourth in the Pac and I gotta tell ya I don't get it.  Losing James Harden and Jeff Pendergaph is a huge blow, especially to a team with a so-so recruiting class coming in.  Their only double-digit scorer coming back, Rihards Kuksiks, is a three point sniper who led the conference in made 3s while shooting 44%.  The only problem is that 80% of his attempts last year were from behind the arc, and you know what helps get open three point looks?  Playing with James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph.  I don't know man, I just don't see it.

10.  Stanford.  I've always hated this program, I still hate this program, and I hope they stay in last place forever. 



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COLLEGE HOOPS PREVIEW: The Pac 10

Yep, another preview of another conference, and if you don't like it you can go straight to hell.

1. UCLA
Losing Westbrook, Love, and Mbah a Moute would cripple most teams, or at least get them to slow down, but UCLA just reloads with the #1 recruiting class in the nation and takes aim at a fourth consecutive Final Four. Darren Collison and Josh Shipp are back, so the back court is solid. If that's not enough, they'll add Jrue Holliday (#2 Rivals 150), Jerime Anderson (#37), and Malcolm Lee (#47) to give them one of the best groups of guards in the country. There are a few questions in the front court, where they have depth in James Keefe, Michael Roll, and Alfred Aboya, but it remains to be seen if any of them have star power. The most likely breakout player in the front court is yet another freshman, either center J'Mison Morgan (#25) or forward Drew Gordon (#45). Even if none of those guys are a major talent, this team is loaded.

2. USC
OJ Mayo is gone to the Wolves Grizzlies, along with Davon Jefferson and Angelo Johnson, who cried when coach Tim Floyd said he couldn't guarantee a starting spot, but they are being replaced by maybe the top freshman in the country in wing Demar DeRozan, who could be the second most athletic player in the country behind Rico Tucker. Daniel Hackett was at times the Trojans best player, and he's back along with force inside Taj Gibson, so they'll be loaded in all areas. Plus, they have little Romeo, so that's nice.

3. Washington
Yes, Washington. The Huskies were a very talented team last year (wins over UCLA and Arizona) but just couldn't quite seem to put forth the consistent effort needed to grab an NCAA berth. With just three point floppy haired jesus Ryan Appleby gone from last season, they're in a great position this year. Jon Brockman is back to own the paint, and guards Quincy Pondexter and Justin Dentmon are top talents just waiting to break out (of course, they've been waiting for two years). One of their biggest weaknesses was point guard play, but incoming freshman Isaiah Thomas (not that one) is a top 100 recruit and should help.

4. Arizona State
It feels weird to put the Sun Devils this high on the list, but they're here for a reason, mainly James Harden deciding to return for his sophomore season. Harden can score from outside or in, and shoots a very high percentage for a guard. One of the best players in the conference. Nearly the entire team is back from last year's bubble reject, highlighted by center Jeff Pendergraph and guard Ty Abbott. If Jerren Shipp can improve to near the level of his brothers, they'll be that much more dangerous.

5. Arizona
First Brandon Jennings heads to Europe, then Lute Olson retires followed by three high level recruits for 2009 dropping out their commitments. It's been a tough offseason for the Wildcats, but they still have enough this season to be in the NCAA conversation, led by Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. Budinger is an elite scorer, but is a little soft, and Hill is an absolute beast in the paint. The keys this season will be the play of point guard Nic Wise, without Jerryd Bayless to help out, as well as freshman center Jeff Withey (#36 Rivals), the only real big man option beyond Hill.

6. Washington State
I'm only putting them this high because their style of play is maddeningly annoying and will certainly get them a handful of wins against teams that get frustrated, but the Cougars are in a bit of trouble this season after losing Robbie Cowgill, Derrick Low, and Kyle Weaver. Aron Baynes is big and almost as fat as that dude from Santa Clara, but he's effective. Taylor Rochestie is back as well, and will be asked to score more with all that firepower gone from last year. The recruiting class is deep, if not overly talented, with Mychal Thompson's son Clay the only real standout (#51).

7. Cal
How do you replace Ryan Anderson and Devon Hardin? You don't, you mostly just cry. Second leading scorer Patrick Christopher is back, but it will be interesting to see how he does being the #1 guy instead of being back in the back. Point guard Jerome Randle is also back, but his assist/turnover ratio of 1.2 shows he needs a lot of polish. The Golden Bears really need Duke transfer Jamal Boykin to live up to his potential. Freshman guard DJ Seeley (#58) is a scorer.

8. Stanford
The Lopez twins both bolted, even though if he stayed this would have absolutely become Robin's team, and that's pretty much all the Cardinal talent. Guards Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson are adequate, but that's all they are. Forward Lawrence Hill is probably their best player, but his numbers dropped massively from his sophomore to junior year. He'll need to recapture his form of two years ago for Stanford to be at all relevant.

9. Oregon
Major talent leaving, with Malik Hairston, Maarty Leunen, and Bryce Taylor all gone. A very solid recruiting class, highlighted by big man Michael Dunigan and wing Matthew Humphrey gives hope, but the scoring load will fall to little man Tajuan Porter. If you've seen him play, he's only 5-6 but makes up for it by chucking the ball from three every single time he touches it. Without those other scorers and their leadership, expect him to lead the nation in three point attempts and ill advised shots, and probably turnovers too (1.0 A/TO last year) making Scottie Reynolds look under control. Fat Gopher reject Josh Crittle is a freshman here too.

10. Oregon State
Isn't it about time to transfer Oregon State to the Big West or the the WCC or something? You could bring in Gonzaga, except they don't play football so that doesn't work. What about BYU or Boise State? Not coastal enough? I don't know then, but something needs to be done. The Beavers haven't been relevant since Corey Benjamin was there, and I'm not even sure they were relevant then, other than in the McDonald's All-American Dunk Contest, which Benjamin even lost to Lester Earl. This year's team? Um, well, they have two starters with the last name Tarver, Seth and Josh, so let's pretend they're Miles Tarver's brothers. Recruiting class? Ranked dead last in the Pac 10.

Trent. Come on dude.

On the way home from the bar tonight, and I happened to catch Trent Tucker drop this little nugget of wisdom about the sweet 16 matchup between Stanford and Texas.

"The key here is Tempo. Texas really wants to get out and run, whereas Stanford wants to slow the game down."

I've actually heard this same thing from some other analyst, but here is a classic example of perception not matching reality.

In terms of tempo, from the basketball stat jesus, Texas ranks 258th out of 341. Not anywhere near a team that wants to speed the game up. Stanford is actually a slow it down kind of team, but their tempo ranks 249th, so they are actually slightly faster than Texas.

The Longhorns score a lot of points, third in the Big 12 at 74.5 per game, but it's not because they play an up tempo style, it's because they're efficient. They rank third in offensive efficiency in the country, behind only Kansas and North Carolina.

So, the point is, people like to make things up based on their perception without bothering to even make a cursory glance at the stats which could either back up or refute their subjective opinion, and that's what's wrong with a lot of columnists and commentators these days. But I still love Trent Tucker anyway.

Sweet 16 Preview: South Region

In the second most chalky region, Memphis has a tough road to get to the final four.

Texas -2 vs. Stanford: Texas was my final four pick, and I'm sticking with them, even though I'm a little nervous for this Stanford game and the Lopez twins.

Stanford showed they can handle a guard-oriented team in beating Marquette last round, and at the same time showed they are vulnerable to that type of team as well, as at one point it looked like the Golden Eagles were going to run away with it. Obviously, the biggest concern if you're playing the Cardinal are the twins, Robin and Brook Lopez. There's not a ton to worry about offensively outside of those two, but you have to seriously worry about them, as Brook put up 30 against Marquette and Robin had 18.

If you're Texas, you have to be concerned, because they're very similar to Marquette. Guard oriented, and not very deep. Where Marquette was able to throw four decent guys with size at the Lopezes (Lopi?), Texas will bring just Connor Atchley, and try to make due with a couple of 6-7 guys in Damion James and Gary Johnson. They do have three 6-10 guys on the bench, but they only average 15 minutes per game between the three of them and only Dexter Pittman has played any kind of meaningful minutes in the tournament so far, 8 of them. Additionally, Texas basically plays just five guys most of the minutes - only the starters played more than 8 minutes in the Miami game last round.

The good news for the Longhorns is how good the guards are. DJ Augustin might be the best point guard in the nation. He's really struggled shooting the ball so far in the first two rounds, but makes up for it by setting up his teammates, and has 8 assists in each of the first two games. Fellow guard AJ Abrams has picked up the slack, with 6 threes and 26 points in each of the first two games. Swingman Damion James might be the biggest key for Texas, since he plays the role of post man for them despite being just 6-7. He's grabbed a double double in each of their first two games, and will be counted on to control the Lopi.

Seeing as how Marquette's Jerel McNeal was able to go off for 30 against Stanford, and the Eagles were able to outrebound the Cardinal 38-31 despite being way outsized, I have no worries about the Longhorns. They should win and cover, and it may be close for a while, but they'll pull away in the end.

Memphis -4.5 vs. Michigan State: It's no secret what Memphis's strengths are - athleticism and good defense. If there's one Big Ten team that has a shot against them it's the Spartans. The Spartans play good defense as well, and with Raymar Morgan, Kalin Lucas, and Chris Allen, they have some athletes to help out against the guys on Memphis.

In reality, I don't see how the Spartans can hang with the Tigers. Of course, I also thought they'd lose to Temple and get killed by Pitt, so I don't really have a good handle on this team. Izzo is one of the best coaches in history in the tournament, and getting the most out of his team, so that's what has me worried. Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and company are much more talented, and I still expect them to run away with it. With Dozier and Dorsey, they have the size to neutralize the Spartans rebounding advantage they have over most teams, and are better on the perimeter too.

The key for MSU would be to slow the game down, take care of the basketball, don't let Memphis run, control the boards, and find a way to keep Rose and CDR out of the lane. If any coach can pull it off, it's Izzo, but I don't see it. Memphis wins in the biggest blowout of the sweet sixteen. Memphis better hope it's not close in the end, as I can see the Spartans making them pay for their inability to hit free throws and pulling off a miracle.

3 Days of Goodness

Thoughts from the first 2+ days of the tournament:

- Despite winning in the first round, Notre Dame should be the most embarrassed team in the tournament, except for maybe UCONN. Washington State is considered a good team, however I think they are very overrated and vulnerable, and the Irish completely embarrassed themselves with that turd of a game today, scoring just 41 points after shooting less than 25% (13-53). Luke "Big East Player of the Year" Harangody was the biggest culprit shooting a whopping 3-17, although he wasn't helped by Kyle McAlarney going 5-13. In case you're curious, that was Harangody's second worst scoring day of the year, with just ten points. Nice timing. I wish I could have watched that game, to see what the hell happened. But I'm predicting a UNC route of Washington State next week.

- Unfortunately I didn't get to watch the games early Friday, which is when two of the best games of the tournament thus far took place - Western Kentucky/Drake and Davidson/Gonzaga. I saw the highlights, and that WKU shot was amazing. Snacks says the Northwestern State moment was still the best Sensor's NCAA tournament moment ever, but that is a close second. That's so gay it would happen when I couldn't be there.

- When I left Friday, Klinger was as drunk as I've ever seen him, and maybe the drunkest anybody has ever been ever.

- I told all you about Siena, and called their victory over Vanderbilt. According to Snacks, a lot of people were predicting that upset, but I'll tell you right now, I never heard a word from anybody else before making that call. I'm kind of bummed they're facing Villanova instead of Clemson, because I'd be interested in seeing if they could handle the Tigers. Speaking of that, how in the holy hell did Villanova beat Clemson? Scottie Reynolds sucks.

- I still can't believe USC laid such an egg. They seriously had the talent to go to the Elite 8. I wrote that the one big issue facing USC was OJ Mayo trying to do too much and shooting them out of the game, but their defense should be able to handle Beasley (relatively). Well, Mayo went only 6-16 and Beasley didn't explode, hitting for only 23. K State somehow got scoring from the whole team, and managed to shoot 48% against a tough USC defense, then shot under 40% against an almost identically defensively Wisconsin team. Weird.

- Speaking of the Badgers, they are looking very, very good so far. If Georgetown gets passed Davidson, expect a final score in the neighborhood of 35-32.

- Watching the very end of the Stanford/Marquette game, with the Eagles up 1 with 8.8 seconds and the bad Lopez brother at the line. He missed, and place sounded very pro-Marquette, despite being in Anaheim. It's just goes to show, everybody hates Stanford.

- Duke got bounced early again, ho-hum, how utterly shocking. It's going to be very interesting to see just how entrenched Coach K is there after two straight early exits. Will there be grumbling, or is it going to be more like Paterno at Penn State? As in, no matter how far he's causing the program to fall, he'll be there until he retires. Note, I'm not saying Duke has crashed or anything like that, just that two straight early losses for them is something I've never seen.

- Arizona sucks. I should have paid more attention to their late season suckness and inability to beat anybody other than Washington State rather than the talent on their roster. Oh well.

- Another minor shocker was Butler's thorough ass-kicking off South Alabama. I picked Butler, and expected them to win, but I thought it would be a tightly contested game that would likely come down to the wire. Instead Butler kicked their butts and won by 20, and it wasn't even that close. If I'm Tennessee, I'd be very nervous.

- It's fairly clear the Atlantic Ten was overrated this year outside of Xavier. Temple got stomped by Michigan State, and St Joe's got rolled by a really mediocre Oklahoma team. And yes, I picked Temple to beat the Spartans. Shut up.

- Phone call just received from Bogart, who is at the bar down in Chicago, but needs to chase his gambling losses on the day with another $100 bet he needs me to place. And not only do I need to place it, I have to pick it too. I go with UCLA -10.5, because A&M sucks.

UPDATE: Texas A&M does not suck, Kevin Love and Darren Collison were just a little bit better down the stretch. Not bad for a non-ankle breaking guard and not stud lowpost guy. Great game. Sorry Bogart. Maybe you'll feel better after this: