Words on the NCAA Basketball Season

With little to no action on the recruiting front (although our new best friend Nate Mason was on campus this weekend) and nothing worth talking Twins about, I haven't posted in a while.  But here I am, watching both baseball and football, and I was missing you guys so I should write some words.

-  Ok so spoiler alert, I'm pretty lazy busy now a days and don't get to post as much.  Therefore, I likely won't be doing that thing where I preview a whole bunch of college basketball teams this year because that takes a shit ton of time and I don't think anybody reads them anyway.  But I feel I must call your attention to a team that is not getting the respect they deserve, a team I have ranked as the 3rd best in the country behind Michigan State and Louisville - The Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Most prediction things I've looked at have them somewhere in the 20s, and that is just way way way wrong.   Did we all forget just how far one great player can take a team in college basketball?  Carmelo Anthony?  Danny Manning?  Hell, Kemba Walker?  Marcus Smart is one that level.  But lest you think this is a one person team, Markel Brown and LeBryan Nash are here too.  The only thing missing is a good big man, but they have a ton of options so if they can cobble together forty minutes of competent big man play each game (they only need one "big guy" because Nash is big enough to play the 4 unless they need to go big) this team is going to be a serious, serious contender.  Currently 25-1 or 40-1 to win the whole thing at some books.  Get in there now.

-  Speaking of, here are your contenders this year:  Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Louisville, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Kansas, Syracuse, VCU and Wisconsin (gross, but true.  I'm high on Dekker).  That's it.  I think UCONN could be a bit of a sleeper too, seems like everybody has forgotten about them but they have a pretty nice squad coming back.  On the opposite end, I think Indiana falls off a cliff.  I know Noah Vonleh is supposed to be a stud, but when the rest of your offense is going to reliant on Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey you're in trouble.  The only exception is if Evan Gordon (transfer from Arizona State) ends up being a stud, but he's on his third team of his career for a reason.  Then again, he's already 22 (and a half) so maybe he'll have some of that Mbakwe stuff going on, although I don't know how much that'll help a guard.  Plus, I hate Indiana a lot, so there's that too.

-  If you want another team that could surprise, but in more of a rising from projected bubble team to a top 5 seed, you should consider Stanford.  Nobody really is predicting them to do much, but it's basically the third year with the same core group but they added Chasson Randle last year.  Two years ago they won the NIT, then had a really disappointing season landing back in the NIT last year.  They just couldn't get over the hump, losing something like six games by five points or fewer, and I think with another year, particularly for Randle, they'll win more of those games and contend for the Pac-12 title.  And then probably make Reid Travis fall more in love with them.  Great.  We're doomed.

-  Speaking of doomed, I just want to mention the loony bin that is the Gopher Hole, where apparently if Rashad Vaughn ends up at either Iowa State or UNLV those programs are clearly crooked.  Honest to god, the prestige rankings over there are something like:
1. Michigan State
2.  Ohio State
3. Indiana
4. Michigan
5.  Duke
6.  North Carolina
7.  Louisville (shot up the rankings this year)
8.  Kansas
9.  Minnesota

Seriously.  Then there's a huge gap and everyone else is in the 100s with Iowa State at the very bottom.  That place has gotten damn near unreadable due to all the Minnesota high school talent for 2014.  Did you know that any Minnesota kid, or any kid considering Minnesota, who ends up going to a different school was clearly enticed by some sort of illegal or shady benefit?  It's true.

-  Should I elaborate on my Wisconsin thoughts a bit?  Yeah, probably since I'm saying they're going to be really good but I hate them.  Assuming Josh Gasser is fully back, he and Ben Brust give the Badgers one of the best back courts in the country.  Wait let me clarify.  I don't mean one of the best back courts in the country in terms of talent or ability or anything like that, I mean best back courts as in best fits for their team's system.  Their boring, boring system.  I don't remember the last time they had two guards who fit this well, but this is like if Jordan Taylor and Trevon Hughes played together and were white.

Then you bring in Sam Dekker, who I think is going to be an absolute monster, and this is a crazy, crazy talented team for a Wisconsin club.  The only real concern is in the front court, except that's never a concern for Wisconsin because there's always some giant hulking shlub who can go from nothing to 10 & 8 in no time flat because Bo Ryan has some sort of grinchy magical powers when it comes to 6-8 frumps.  I don't know if it'll be an old guy (Frank Kaminsky/Zach Bohanon/Evan Anderson) or a new guy (Nigel Hayes) but the last thing you ever need to worry about when it comes to Wisconsin is them getting front court production.  Add in their best 3-man back court I can remember and their boring, boring system of boring their opponent to death and the Badgers are sneaky dangerous this year.  And that sucks.

-  Overall the Big 10 is going to be tough this year, but I see four pretty distinct tiers:
TIER 1:  Michigan State
TIER 2:  Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa
TIER 3:  Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota
TIER 4:  Northwestern, Nebraska, Penn State

There's some chance for movement between these of course - Michigan State, Ohio State, or Wisconsin could end up as good as Michigan State.  Iowa or Illinois could drop.  Northwestern could jump up, but pretty much this is how I see it so I guess I'm saying the Gophers could finish anywhere from 6th to 10th, and because their schedule is so weak this year it's going to be an uphill battle to get to the NCAA Tournament again.  Obviously not impossible or anything, but keep an eye on the Maui tournament - the results there could end up being huge for the Gophers' RPI.





-  Your most likely high profile coach to get canned this year is Rick Barnes at Texas which makes sense because he's a terrible game coach.  He was always a hell of a recruiter and rode those abilities to a stretch of five Sweet 16s in eight years, but the Longhorns missed the NCAA Tournament last year (for the first time since 1998, but still it was pretty bad) with a losing season and they're poised to have an even worse year this season.  Myck Kabongo left for the NBA (or wherever, considering he didn't get drafted) and Julien Lewis and Shelden McClellan transferred, Ioannis Papapetrou signed to play pro ball overseas, and Javan Felix is injured and out for an indefinite amount of time.  With a not very strong recruiting class coming in this is going to be an ugly year.  Maybe his past success combined with the current rough circumstances will buy him some more time, but Texas is not a very patient school and also Rick Barnes is almost worse than Bruce Weber.

-  As far as Kentucky goes this year, I know a lot of people are ready to hand them the title since they have the best recruiting class of all-time coming in and some established talent already in place and frankly it's not a bad call.  It really is the greatest collection of talent I can remember in college basketball in the early entry era, at least on paper.  Calipari showed how this kind of plan can work two years ago when he won the national title, but he's had the same basic play every since he came to Kentucky and still only has the one title in four years, while missing the tournament altogether last season.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be the favorite, but there is some truth to the old saying, "not enough basketballs to go around."  That Kentucky team that won the National Championship was supremely talented, but that talent came mainly in the form of players who could impact the game without needing the ball.  Anthony Davis was a defensive force, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was an all-around stud, Marquis Teague was happy to let others take the shots, and even Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones had no problem taking a back seat when necessary for the good of the team.  That was the problem with the John Wall team (a team that, granted, made the Elite 8) - Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Patterson, and DeMarcus Cousins were all ball dominating players.  I'm interested to see where this new group falls, because the talent level really is insane, and like nothing we've ever seen before.


-   One of the unintended consequences of all this conference realignment stuff going on is the complete weakening of the mid-majors as the bigger conference get stronger by pilfering the top programs from all over the country.  The only mid-majors worth a damn (WCC, A-10, Missouri Valley, and Mountain West if you consider them a mid-major) were either strengthened or completely untouched by realignment.  Look at once strong conferences like Conference USA, the Colonial, and the Horizon have been gutted. 

C-USA has become 16 crappy teams, everyone has fled the Colonial to the point where the team that just joined up, College of Charleston, is probably the most historically successful program in the conference, and the Horizon is now looking at Wright State and Cleveland State as it's shining stars.  Perhaps the worst is the WAC, which was never you know, awesome or anything, but it has been completely gutted.  The #1 team is now New Mexico State, but even worse the #2 squad is Idaho or Cal State Bakersfield.  Bakersfield!  I'm not even sure if any of these teams here outside of NMSU have ever been to the NCAA Tournament.  I mean they probably have or something, but I'll be damned if I remember.  Sure, this all makes for better games in the major conferences, but I'm a little sad about how crappy all the mid-majors are now.  Well, I'm over it now.

-   There is now a team in D-I basketball called the University of the Incarnate Word Cardinals (of course they're the Cardinals).  They're ineligible for the NCAA Tournament this year as they make the transition to D-I, but they're joining the Southland along with Abilene Christian and Houston Baptist.  Soon it seems the Southland will be called the Holy Conference.  Or something more clever than that.  Shut up I'm tired.

-  Lastly, here's my shot at your projected NCAA Tournament teams by conference.  We'll see how I do:
ACC (5):  Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame
AAC (4):  Louisville, Memphis, UCONN, Cincinnati
A-10 (3):  VCU, LaSalle, St. Louis
America East (1):  Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun (1):  Florida Gulf Coast
Big East (5):  Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Creighton
Big 10 (5):  Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana
Big 12 (5):  Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State
Big Sky (1):  Weber State
Big South (1):  High Point
Big West (1):  Long Beach
C-USA (1):  Louisiana Tech
Colonial (1):  Drexel
Horizon (1):  Wright State
Ivy (1):  Harvard
Mountain West (4):  New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Boise State
Missouri Valley (2):  Wichita State, Indiana State
MAC (1):  Akron
MAAC (1):  Manhattan
MEAC (1):  Morgan State
NEC (1):  Bryant
Ohio Valley (1):  Belmont
Pac-12 (5):  Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford
Patriot (1):  Lafayette
SEC (6):  Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Missouri
SoCon (1):  Elon
Southland (1):  Houston State
Summit (1):  Denver
Sun Belt (1):  Western Kentucky
SWAC (1):  Texas Southern
WAC (1):  New Mexico State
WCC (2):  Gonzaga, BYU
 
You know what's crazy?  When I did this without worrying about counting how many bids I was giving out on my first pass I came out with 67 teams.  Just had to add one to round it out.   I ended up making it Indiana which was perfect because I didn't feel good about just five teams coming out of the Big 10, but I have no idea who the sixth one will be.  Indiana, like I said, has a million question marks, I hate Illinois, and I don't think Purdue or Minnesota have the pieces.  Whatever.  I'm pretty dumb anyway so say la vee.

Some Monday Things

Just some things while I watch the National Championship game, in which I have a 14-to-1 betting slip on Louisville to win the title I bought back in December when I became convinced the Cardinals were the team to beat.  It is the largest futures bet I have ever made, and that is by quite a lot.  Needless to say, I'm a pretty big Louisville fan tonight . That being said, I also have some on Michigan +4 because that's what I actually think will happen, so let's hope for a Louisville win by 1-3 points please thank you drive through.


- First off, this Aaron Hicks thing is really a bummer so far.  I know it's not like his career is over or anything and technically he's off to a better start than Willie Mays and everything, but I was hoping this whole Hicksy thing would be exciting and sexy, not stressful and a little bit depressing.  The good news is that he doesn't seem like it's bothering him as much as it's bothering me.  He's still got his little bit of swagger out in center and his approach at the plate hasn't changed so it doesn't seem like he's pressing or anything.  Today actually was the first time he's looked frustrated at all after his strikeout in the 8th.  No doubt the numbers are ugly, particularly the strikeout numbers, but lots of crazy things happen with small sample sizes early in the season - you only have to look at the Twins' pitching thus far to see that.

By the way, I'm pretty sure Vance Worley is horrendous, we already know Kevin Correia is horrendous, and Liam Hendriks aspires to be horrendous.  That means the only starters in the rotation right now who might not be horrendous are Mike Pelfrey (who is probably horrendous) and Pedro Hernandez (I'm not even sure who this is).  Yet they're 6th in the American League in ERA.  Man that regression to the mean is going to be swift and painiful.

-   This Spike Albrecht shit is crazy.

- As far as Gopher hoops recruiting goes there are two interesting names to pay attention to - Alvin Ellis and Shavar Newkirk. 

Ellis is the dude who had already committed to the Gophers but asked for, and was granted, his release from his Letter of Intent after Tubby was fired and apparently nobody in the athletic department got around to even making a phone call (according to some reports).  I definitely think the Gophers are better off with Ellis than without, but it's not like losing a Royce White type of loss at all.  Ellis will probably end up being a pretty quality four-year player but he's not a program changer, and although his game sounds like it fits what Pitino wants to do if he bails and it just gives Pitino another scholarship to get one of his own guys well, we might as well let the kid do his thing.

Newkirk is a guy I'm really excited about, simply because he's a NYC point guard and I've always loved NYC point guards (I miss you Eric Harris!).  He's a 2014 recruit (obviously I'd rather have Tyus but Newkirk is a solid fall back) who ranks at #125 on the Rivals Top 150, and the reason he's popped up as a possible future Gopher is that our new coach already offered him a scholarship to FIU.  He also carries offers from Iona, Hofstra, Manhattan, Seton Hall, UMass, Providence, and Iowa State.  Really the only competition prestige-wise here is the Cyclones, and the Gophers should have an inside edge since Kimani Young is now on board Pitino's staff and he has deep roots into NYC and is a big reason FIU was on Newkirk in the first place.  As with many NYC point guards he's a great ball-handler and exceptional passer with a terrible jump shot, but I will gladly sacrifice that for a true distributor type and hope he can learn to shoot with time - it worked for Harris.  Let's do this.

-  I watched Weird Science today, and I think it's the first time I've watched the entire thing from start to finish since like, the 90s and you know what?  That is one weird as hell movie.  I'm not even sure if I think it was good or bad.  Somehow I think I blocked out the weird futuristic biker gang scene from my memory.  And all the magic and stuff at the end.  So bizarre.  I'd rather watch License to Drive.  That movie rocked your face off.

-   Half-time and after a huge comeback by Luke Hancock the Spike Albrechts lead 38-37.  Great game.  Especially if you have the Over 138.

-  I haven't really given much thought to the Masters yet (I should probably get Grand Slam in here to write up a Masters preview) but rest assured I'll have a little coin on a couple of players.  Just glancing at the list and without doing any research some of the guys who look interesting are Poulter at 50/1, Mahan at 50/1, Stricker at 66/1, and Immelman 500/1 (those odds are crazy).  Snedeker at 44/1 is another one I need to look at, along with Keegan Bradley (23/1) and Kuchar (40/1).  I don't really like any of the big favorites just because their odds suck.  Tiger is 4/1, Rory is 8/1, Phil is 11/1 and Justin Rose is 17/1.  I don't know.  I'll be back to let you know because I know you want to know.

-   I really expected to write more but this game is way too entertaining.  Bye.

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #6-1

Well here we are kids.  The last six teams.  I'm kind of impressed with myself that I actually wrote up all 68 teams.  You're impressed too, right?  Yeah, you are.  I can tell.

Anyway, Jay Bilas published his top 68 teams as well, and as you'd guess we have some differences.  We both have the same top 2, but only Michigan also makes both our top 5s.  Eight of my top 10 are also in his top 10, but the two teams he has that high that I don't ranked as #s 17 and 22 for me.  There were 15 teams Bilas ranked that I didn't, with his best two that didn't make my cut being West Virginia (34) and Butler (44).  Of the 15 teams I had that Bilas didn't rank, the best were St. Mary's (34) and Valpo (36).   Some of the biggest difference in teams we have ranked are Drexel (me 29, him 66), BYU (me 30, him 50), Iowa State (me 63, him 39), Alabama (me 60, him 32), Pitt (me 56, him 23), Tennessee (me 45, him 22), and Michigan State (me 22, him 7). 

Wasn't that an interesting paragraph?  Whatever.  I hate you.  Just read these and be done with it already.

6.  UCLA Bruins.  This lofty ranking assumes things get figured out with super star freshman Shabazz Muhammad's eligibility, but even without him they'd have a shot at being a top 10 team.  They're loaded with talent all over the place, partially thanks to the #1 recruiting class this year according to ESPN including Tony Parker, the #7 rated center and #26 overall who should either push Josh Smith to be what he was touted to be or just straight up replace him.  Other than Muhammad's eligibility the biggest question facing UCLA this year is if a team with National Championship aspirations can really count on Larry Drew as their only real point guard.  You may remember Drew as the guy who quit in the middle of the season at UNC after Kendall Marshall won the starting PG job and whose mom went nuts on Tar Heel message boards.  The fact is that Drew was a terrible shooter and not much of a play-maker for being such a horrendous shooter (like the shooting of Ed Cota with the playmaking ability of Kris Humphries).  If he's improved (and Muhammad is eligible) these guys are absolutely a Final Four team.  Otherwise, they're probably just very good.  It's probably nice to have a "downside" to your season that would likely still be a top 4 seed in March.  Stupid power program jerks.

5.  Syracuse Orange. Scoop Jardine is gone, but that's ok because it's time for Michael Carter-Williams to become a star PG.  Fab Melo is gone, but that's ok because Rakeem Christmas might end up being better than than him anyway.  And Dion Waiters is gone but that's also ok because C.J. Fair is about to explode.  An excellent mix of returning talent (Brandon Triche is back as well for I think his 8th year) and newcomers (DaJuan Coleman is the 14th overall player and 6th best incoming center according to ESPN) should have the Orange back in Final Four contention.  There are questions, mainly because Carter-Williams is going from 10 minutes per game to running the show and he didn't exactly look great last season, but he should be game for the job considering he was a top 27 recruit last year and is an awesome 6-6 which is always awesome in a PG.  And if he's not the man, they have Triche who can slide in and take over.  Syracuse should contend for the Big East title, and it sucks that this will be the last time since they're going to the ACC.  That's just wrong.  Syracuse in the ACC?  That'd be like finding Super Sioux Fan in the library.

4.  Michigan Wolverines.  If Michigan's freshmen are as good as advertised this ranking is right.  Obviously they're loaded at guard with Trey Burke being one of the top point guards in the country and Tim Hardaway a scoring machine when he's on, but the front court is weak if you're only counting returning players (foul machine Jordan Morgan and coming back from a foot injury Jon Horford and that's it).  Both SF Glenn Robinson and PF Mitch McGary are top 30 guys according to ESPN, and if all goes according to plan both will end up starting.  Speaking of top recruits, in case you're wondering Michigan already has three top 100 guys (#s 24, 35, and 99) on board for season after this one and ESPN rates them as having the 7th best class in the country.  Indiana is #12.  Illinois #24 and Purdue #25.  Michigan State and Iowa (along with Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue) were in the top 25 for this about to begin season.  The last time the Gophers made the list was 2009 and two of the three guys who signed ended up transferring out.  I'm not exactly inspired here.

3.  NC State Wolfpack.  Talk about a quick turnaround.  Just two years ago NC State went 15-16 and won just 5 ACC games.  Then they fired Sid Lowe and hired Mark Gottfried, went to the Sweet 16, and are ranked 6th in both polls to start this season.  This season they have three new recruits coming in ranked in ESPN's Top 100 and already have two more on the line for 2013.  They're also among the final few teams still in the running for the #1 PF and #3 Center for next year.  As for this year's team it's basically the same team that made the Sweet 16 last year, but with three McDonald's All-Americans added to it, one of whom (Rodney Purvis) is either the best or second best freshman coming into the ACC this year.  They've also got two guys (Lorenzo Brown and C.J. Leslie) who could win ACC Player of the Year and could be first round draft picks next year.  Now THIS is what you hope happens when you hire a new coach with a good pedigree, even though Gottfried's pedigree prior to NC State wasn't nearly as impressive as Tubby Smith's before coming to Minnesota.  What?  I'm just sayin'. 

2.  Indiana Hoosiers.  When I first heard the Hoosiers were considered the favorite to win the National Title I was all like, "Dude, what?  Get out of here, nerd" but then you start reading about all the other teams out there and you realize yeah, it's pretty legit.  If you had to pick one player to build a team around Cody Zeller would likely be your top pick as a legitimately skilled and polished center who can play on both ends, and with Christian Watford next to him that's probably the best 1-2 forward punch in the Big 10 if not the country.  And holy cow on Victor Oladipo the dude went from a raw athlete to a polished offensive player in one off season.  Pretty much the only weakness you can find with Indiana is at point guard if you don't like Jordan Hulls - which I do not - but they remedied that by signing Yogi Ferrell, who ESPN ranks as the third best PG in the class.  Crazy how quickly Tom Crean turned this program back around, which is great because I've always said the Big Ten needs even more perennial powerhouse programs to make sure the Gophers don't ever rise too high.

1.  Louisville Cardinals.  I may be biased because I love Rick Pitino even more than that chick he did on the table does, but there are a lot of reasons to love this team this year.  First, you know they're going to have a dominating defense.  They have that monster (Gorgui Dieng) in the paint erasing shots all over the place and plenty of athletes to run Pitino's press and he's always had great defensive half-court teams.  The only real question is if they'll be able to score enough, especially with Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith are gone and those were the only two reliable outside shooters on the team.  I'm betting they can, which pretty much means I'm betting on Peyton Siva to finally "get it."  I actually have no idea why, because looking at his stats he's basically been a horrific shooter and turnover machine from day 1, and even after he supposedly "got it" at the end of last season his numbers didn't really change much.  Maybe you had to see it to believe it, but I'm buying in.  There's an incredible amount of talent assembled at Louisville this year and Siva is basically going to be the difference between another Final Four and possible Championship and a lackluster season.  Come on dude, don't make me look stupid.  I do that enough on my own (see:  my football predictions). 


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34 
Teams #33-26 
Teams #25-20 
Team #19 (GOPHERS) 
Teams #18-12 
Teams #11-7

DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #11-7

Apparently the lastest news, apart from some kind of election or something that is going on, is that the Twins are apparently interested in trading for James Shields of the Rays.  I'm not sure I'm buying that this team would do such a drastic move but that would be pretty sweet.  If they trade for Shields and sign someone like Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson suddenly everything looks a whole lot better.  Then your rotation is Shields/McCarthy or Jackson/Diamond/Baker and then that whole mess of young dorks.  I feel pretty good about throwing all those guys into a competition for the fifth starter, especially as compared to needed three of them to be in the rotation as we stand now.

And what would it take to get Shields?  Denard Span at a minimum, but with the Rays needed to shed Shields salary and Span's contract is so team friendly through 2015 they might be willing to do it for just him, especially since they're expecting B.J. Upton to sign elsewhere so they'll need a CF.  I'm willing to give up Span as much as I like him just because Ben Revere's skill set is so close to his so losing Span doesn't really hurt that much.  The other rumor is they might want either Parmelee or Morneau as well to fill that black hole at first that is Carlos Pena, and I'd be fine giving up either to get Shields.  I'd be a little bit surprised if they want Morneau because of his salary, but if they can talk the Twins into picking up a chunk of his money then it could happen.  Either way making that trade significantly upgrades the rotation without hurting the lineup too much, so it's got to happen.  Which means it won't. 

On to the stuff:
 

11.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  I don't really get the high ranking for Ohio State in all the polls.  To be honest, I think 11 is a little bit high but I don't want to look like too big of an idiot and have them at 20 or something.  I know DeShaun Thomas is a scoring machine and I know Aaron Craft is a very, very good on ball defender, but beyond that everything is a mystery.  Can Craft excel when he has to be more the focal point of the offense?  Will that make his defense suffer?  Can Lenzelle Smith stop shooting bricks and become the scorer and shooter the Buckeyes need?  Sam Thompson and Amir Williams certainly have the pedigree to become stars or at least quality starters, but will they?  They're about to go from benchwarmer minutes to starters.  There's a shit load of other guys here too who have really impressive high school stats and good rankings when they came out, but they haven't proven anything.  Maybe Ohio State will be really good and be a Final Four contender yet again, but there are just way too many questions for me to have them in my top 10, let alone top 5.  Ask Jonathan Bender, Charles Rogers, and Brien Taylor about potential. 

10.  Missouri Tigers. I just read a thing on ESPN where they said the Tigers have the best back court in America and you know how much I love guards.  Mizzou would normally be in tough straights losing four starters off of last year's squad, but for whatever reason they've become a transfer haven lately and should be a getting a massive boost.   They will once again be mainly perimeter oriented, but Alex Oriakhi is in from UCONN and Laurence Bowers is back after an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of last season and those two alone are some considerable talent up front.  They have maybe the most fun PG to watch in the country (outside Andre Hollins of course) back in Phil Pressey as well as last year's sixth man Michael Dixon and add a whole mess of talented wing guys from Oregon, Auburn, and Pepperdine.  That, my friends, is a well built, well balanced team who is also going to run the hell out of you.  So much fun to watch.  There's a reason why I have a Missouri sweatshirt.  Mainly because it was $7 at Barry & Steve's.  RIP.

9.  Florida Gators.  The Gators are similar to Missouri in that they are perimeter oriented and I own or once owned a $7 sweatshirt from Barry & Steve's of them, but while Missouri probably has more questions the Gators might be looking at the biggest question:  who replaces Erving Walker?  Yeah, Bradley Beal is gone to the NBA and he was a bigger scorer than Walker, but Mike Rosario (former Rutgers dude and a big-time recruit) should be just fine stepping in, while Walker has been the team's starting PG for the last four years and there's no obvious replacement.  Kenny Boynton could slide over but he really, really loves to shoot (although in fairness so did Walker).  The other choices are a freshman (#7 PG frosh in the country by ESPN but still) or a junior who averaged just 15 minutes and 2.6 ppg last season.  As long as they figure that out they'll be a Final Four candidate because they're loaded with talent, and since Billy Donovan is a disciple of college basketball coaching jesus I'm sure the Gators will be just fine.  I really wish I knew what I did with that damn sweatshirt.  I want to wear it when they make the Final Four.

8.  Duke Blue Devils.  More like Puke, am I right?  I think I made that joke last year, but I, like the majority of America, just really dislike these guys.  Partially it's the overall douchbaggery, partially it's the entitlement, partially it's the reverence the national media bestows upon them, partially it's the constant whining of their rat-faced coach, and partially it's that they have a little floor-slapping weiner named Wojo as their big man coach.  Oh, you weren't aware?  Yes, Floppy McDiveonfloor himself is Duke's big man coach.  Suddenly it seems less of a wonder that they haven't had a good big man since Elton Brand when the guy who is supposed to be developing all this front line talent (and they still get the talent, it just never develops) is busy teaching them how to draw charges and miss three pointers.  Hopefully that never changes.  In conclusion, Duke will be pretty good all year and then lose in the first or second round of the tournament and America will once again rejoice amen.

7.  Kentucky Wildcats.  How exactly do you write about a team that has turned over it's entire roster?  Oh yeah, Kyle Wiltjer is back and is supposed to be pretty good and stuff.  Ryan Harrow will be the starting PG this year and I remember him from his NC State days, he was pretty good.  And the rest is transfers, guys who didn't play last year, and freshmen.  And yes, once again they're a really good group of recruits and next year is shaping up to be even stronger.  Say what you will about Calipari, like that if he and an orange were having a coaching battle I'd take Cal but I'd have to think about it, but he figured the game out before anyone else.  While most coaches were fighting the one-and-done culture and trying to figure out how to get kids to stay he embraced it and made it part of his team's model to the point where he can nearly pick and choose his recruits knowing that Calipari and Kentucky will embrace the fact that he'll only be there for a single season.  That, as well as Calipari's record with getting the most from his kids in that single year and getting them drafted, is awfully attractive for that very top tier talent.  He's made it work, he beat everyone else to it, and now he's got a dynasty on his hands and there's no reason to think it's going to stop any time soon.  You've got to give him credit for that.  I will now go wander into rush hour traffic.

Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34 
Teams #33-26 
Teams #25-20 
Team #19 (GOPHERS) 
Teams #18-12

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #25-20

Delmon effing Young.  Is it possible that the dude is a legit playoff assassin?  And when he blows up in the playoffs and the Tiger fans are like, "Hooray Delmon he's awesome" and all us Twins fans are kind of like "ha ha small sample size it's pure luck this dude sucks" that we're actually wrong?  Like, that Delmon is a Mr. Clutch type of guy rather than a Mr. Plow type of guy?  He has 8 home runs in his postseason career (115ish ABs) which would put him at like 40 for a season at that rate when his career high is 21.  In seven career playoff series he's hit over .300 in four of them, which is pretty remarkable when he's never done it in a full season.  He's OPSed over 1.100 twice in the playoffs, which is pretty remarkable.  You know how many dudes have ever done that?  Well probably a lot but I still think it's crazy that we're talking about Delmon Young.  When do we pass the small sample size thing?  He's over 100 ABs at this point.  I'm just saying.  Maybe the guy knows how to raise his game?  Or actually tries in the playoffs?  I don't know.  Pretty crazy. 

25.  Virginia Commonwealth Rams.  I'm getting kind of sick of VCU doing well all the time, but there's no reason to think this streak is going to end as long as Shaka Smart is still there and not coaching the Gophers.  VCU even picked up two recruits off ESPN's Top 100 list, the first of the Smart era.  They only lose one starter off of last year's squad, and even though he was their leading scorer last year it doesn't really matter because the way these teams are always constructed to be deep, balanced, and give plenty of minutes to plenty of players so with almost the full rotation back plus the two freshmen I think these guys will be just fine, and moving to a bigger conference (they're in the A-10 now) means they won't have to scrape and claw for an at-large bid so expect to see them in March once again.  Oh, and just to rub it in, VCU is planning construction on a new basketball practice facility sometime in 2013.  *killsself*

24.  San Diego State Aztecs.  Remember that SDSU team from two years ago that was so awesome?  I loved that team, and good news for people like me, this year's Aztec team is similarly built and might be even better.  Pretty much everybody of consequence on this year's squad is versatile and between 6-3 and 6-8, they have last year's two top scorers in the Mountain West back in Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin, a very good point guard in Xavier Thames, one of the best recruits in history coming in with Winston Shepard, and great depth on the bench thanks to a whole slew of transfers.  Last year was a disappointment but the Aztecs still made the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season under the awesome Steve Fisher, a streak that should continue unlike my streak of winning on pulltabs which ended last night thanks to a stupid box called "Halloscream."  Always stay away from seasonal gimmicks.  I should have known better.

23.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Speaking of remember things, remember Luke Harangody?  Well apparently he had a twin little brother because Jack Cooley is back for his senior season and he's pretty much the exact same guy.  The numbers aren't quite as gaudy but the game is nearly identical as is the physical appearance to a creepy level.  Even creepier than having a Harangody clone hanging around is Scott Martin is back for another year.  Yes, the same Scott Martin who was part of the JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel/E'Twaun Moore/Scott Martin recruiting class at Purdue.  The transfer to Notre Dame and losing a year to injury have had him in college nearly as long as Trevor Mbakwe.  What it really means is that the starting front court for Notre Dame 2013 will look exactly the same as Notre Dame 2010.  It would be sweet if you knew someone who went into a coma in 2010 and then just woke up and you could have them watch a Notre Dame game and convince them they were only unconscious for a couple of days.

22.  Michigan State Spartans.  It is a testament to the program Izzo has built that he can lose the unquestioned leader, heart and soul of the team, do everything coach on the floor guy from last year's team and not take a step back, which I suppose isn't really much of a surprise since, like LL Cool J, he's been here for years.  What is a little surprising is there's no heir apparent as the go-to guy/leader that Izzo almost always has.  The team's leading returning scorer is Keith Appling who is too erratic, the lone senior is Derrick Nix, who isn't good enough and got busted for pot this summer, and the team's two best players will probably end up being a freshman (Gary Harris) and a guy returning from a knee injury (Branden Dawson).   Although knowing how things happen at Michigan State it wouldn't surprise me if one of these guys (or someone else) will morph into that guy.  One thing's for sure, the Spartans will play defense, rebound, and will be able to change their game to match their opponent and hang with anybody.  I have them as my fifth best Big 10 team, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're the last one from the conference standing in March.  They're like the St. Louis Cardinals - nothing they do in the postseason is ever a surprise.

21.  UNLV Runnin' Rebels.  I think it's safe to say the old Rebels are back in the form of the new Rebels.  Under Lon Kruger the Rebels became a walk-it-up kind of team, but with Dave Rice taking over last season they upped their tempo to top 29 in the country and it wouldn't surprise me if they were even faster this year.  And they're continuing down the transfer route with Khem Birch, former McDonald's All-American, coming in from Pittsburgh and Bryce Jones, a former starter at USC, coming in this year and both expected to start with Roscoe Smith from UCONN coming in next season.  Add in having their leading scorer and rebounder back from last season (Mike Moser who averaged a double double) and add in Anthony Bennett, the 7th best recruit in the country, and the Rebels are loaded with talent.  The only real question is will they mesh like Tarkanian's UNLV teams, or Tarkanian's Fresno State teams?  Obviously, I'm betting on the former (and you can too at 25-1 to win the whole thing).

20.  Cincinnati Bearcats.  It might be a bit odd to have the Bearcats this high considering they lost Yancy Gates and have nobody who can clearly replace, or even step in, for him, but they have two things that won me over.  First, they seemed to be on TV a ton last year and every time I watched them they impressed me with their toughness.  Remember after the big fight Xavier went into a tailspin while Cincy went on a run, culminating in a amazing streak closing out the season (wins over #7 Marquette, #14 Georgetown, and #2 Syracuse in the final month) and a run to the Sweet 16.  Not to sound like some stupid cliche-ridden sportswriter guy, but these guys were warriors last year.  Second, they are loaded at guard with three guys who can shoot, create, get to the rim, and play defense and I'm always a sucker for great guards.  All of this is for naught if nobody can play in the paint, however, and their most talented front court guy is a redshirt freshman who is 6-7 and weighs 170 - that's not a typo.  Guy's like if you took Manute Bol, shrunk him by a foot and then made him 33% skinnier.  And also you'd have to take away the 3-point shot because Manute was NAILS.





Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34 
Teams #33-26

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #33-26

Pablo Sandoval hits three home runs.  Barry Zito not only is unhittable, but also knocks in a run against probably the best pitcher of this generation.  Angel Pagan gets a double by hitting a routine bouncer that hits the third base bag.  Tim Lincecum strikes everyone out in a season where he's basically been a pitching machine.  Gregor Blanco can suddenly get to everything.  Call me crazy, but are you getting a vibe that the Giants stole that Cardinal October magic?  Good thing I got in on the Giants to win at +160 already.  I know I said I was going to be rooting for the Tigers and thought they were the better team, but so much money poured in on Detroit that the +160 for the Giants was too juicy to pass up.  Obviously.  Any way, I wrote some more previews while watching the game. 

33. Kansas State Wildcats.  You know, K-State has a pretty good thing going lately and have morphed into one of the most consistently athletic teams in the country year-after-year, and that's not going to change this season.  The Wildcats have most of last year's team back, including eight of their top nine scorers from last season, which means they'll most likely still be a god awful jump-shooting team (unless someone or someones went Eric Harris on it this offseason) but that's ok because they should make up for it, again, by being phenomenal at attacking the basket and grabbing a high percentage of all those bricks they throw up there.   Of course, they just hired Bruce Weber and since we all know a coaching match-up between Weber and paper bag would be a toss-up we can probably expect this nice little run by K-State to fall by the wayside as they descend into mediocrity once again and Weber moves on to destroy yet another program.

32.  St. Mary's Gaels.  I know what you're worrying about, and yes don't worry floppy haired uber Beiber dork Matthew Dellavedova is back for one more year.  And someone tell me if I'm totally crazy, but I'm getting a distinct Steve Nash vibe from this kid.  Think about it.  Floppy hair.  From a foreign country that speaks a weird brand of English.  Under the radar recruit who lands at a WCC school.  Immediate impact as a freshman, then end up getting progressively better, developing into one of the best PGs in the land, and single-handedly leading their team to upsets against bigger (and better) teams.  I really think we're in for a monster year from both Dellavedova and St. Mary's, if only to validate my Nash theory.  But if St. Mary's ends up making the Sweet 16 this year I'd start finding ways to bet YES on things like "Someday Matthew Dellavedova will win two NBA MVP awards."

31.  St. Louis Billikens.  St. Louis has been on a slow build since they hired Rick Majerus, so it'll be interesting to see if is absence (taking a year off for some kind of medical leave) hurts them, because this team has a chance to be very good this year.  It's actually kind of a an interesting case because they only lose one dude from last year's team, but it's the dude that was kind of their leader who did everything (1st in points, 2nd in rebs, 5th in assists, 4th in steals, 1st in FG%, 1st in FT%).  Talent-wise they're pretty loaded, but losing the head coach, the team leader, and now their best returning player, Kwamain Mitchell, is out for six weeks with a broken foot.  I don't know, that seems like a lot to deal with for a team who is supposed to be in good shape for this season.  Kind of makes me think of the Cincinnati Bengals for some reason.

30.  BYU Cougars.  It's always interesting how the Mormon faith impacts college hoops.  There's the scheduling, because BYU can't/won't play on Sundays which impacts the NCAA Tournament.  Brandon Davies got suspended for the season two years ago because he had sex and then admitted it to his coach.  And there's always the random Mormon mission that takes a player off the team mid-way through his career.  This time, however, BYU is actually getting a big boost, because Tyler Haws back.  Two seasons ago Haws averaged 11 points and 4 rebounds per game as a freshman and still has a 48-straight made free throw streak.  Getting a guy back who has already proven he can play is golden, and add Haws to a mix that includes the 6-11 Davies (15 & 8 last year) and point guard Matt Carlino (12 & 5) and BYU won't even miss the loss of a couple of seniors and should have no problem grabbing an NCAA bid.  Assuming everybody keeps their pants on, or at least has the common sense to not go running to their bishop about it.

29.  Drexel Dragons.  You know what's a really sweet team name?  Dragons.  Awesome.  Anyway, the Dragons, who are routinely one of the best defensive squads in the country, are set up for success this year.  The only lose one major contributor off last season's team that set a school record for victories, and with VCU now in the A-10 and Old Dominion ineligible for the conference title since they're bolting to C-USA after this season it's wide open for Drexel to take the league crown.  As I mentioned Drexel is always nails defensively, but last year's edition could actually score some points as well and a Dragon team that can score is pretty scary for somebody in round 1 of the tournament.  Like, scary like that Tiamat five-headed dragon from the Dungeons & Dragons cartoon.  Yes I watched it as a kid and it was awesome.  I also own a DVD with 10 episodes on it, what of it?  No you're the nerd.

28.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Ok, I've learned my lesson.  I don't know if it's my hatred of the Badgers because they're evil (I mean they even wear red, pay attention) or just because they're so boring, but every year I think the Badgers will be horrible and every year I'm wrong.  Look at this season - Jordan Taylor is gone and there isn't a player on the roster who looks like they can replace his production, even by committee.  Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans are the two best players coming back, and Evans should be a six man and Berggren is terrible.  Their top guards are going to be Ben Brust and Josh Gasser and neither of them scares anybody.  But of course, none of that matters.  They're going to play so slow it puts everyone to sleep, bore everyone to death, never turn the ball over, grab all the available rebounds, and win way more games than I'd ever expect.  Just like every year.  It's like an evil version of college basketball Groundhog Day.

27.  Marquette Golden Eagles.  At first when I was ranking teams off the top of my head I think I had Marquette in the 40s or 50s simply because losing both Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom to the NBA is a crusher, but when I did more reading I realized there is plenty still here to work with (plus counting out Buzz Williams is like counting on Bruce Weber).  Their back court is loaded with Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue, who is one of my favorite players because he has a sweet name, a sweet game, and he pissed on Wisconsin, and their returning leading scorer is a big man so they'll have a nice balance.  The back court should be their strength, but that doesn't mean their shooting - the three returning guards shot combined 48-162 from 3 last year and that will probably hold them back from being a truly dangerous team.  Still better than Wisconsin though.

26.  Ohio Bobcats.  You only need to know one thing - yes, D.J. Cooper is back.  You remember Cooper, right?  He's the guy who pretty much beat Georgetown two years ago and Michigan last year in the NCAA Tournament.  And he was pretty good against South Florida too, helping Ohio to the Sweet 16.  Yes, he's back and now a senior.  As is last year's second leading scorer Walter Offutt.  And #3 Reggie Keely.  #4 Nick Kellog is back too, but he's only a junior.  #5 Ivo Baltic is a senior though.  You see where I'm going with this?  The Bobcats have their top nine players back and all but one is a senior or junior.  The have top end talent in Cooper and Offutt.  And they must have a pretty good chemistry together because even though their coach left to take the Illinois job nobody transferred out.  This could be a very special year, which feels weird to say about a MAC team. Plus DJ Cooper makes me think of D.B. Cooper and that's awesome.   Of course since they are a MAC team, it's pretty likely if they don't win their conference tournament they don't go dancing at all.  Which would suck like Nick Blackburn.  Or Justin Verlander, I suppose.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34

DWG NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #38-34

Way to go, Kyle Lohse.  You might as well just come to my house and steal my money.  And it's not just Lohse, it's everybody - not only the Cardinals but the entire National League.  The Giants suck.  I'm sorry, it's just a fact, but everyone seems to just lay down and die.  The Cards, a normally excellent fielding team, have given more free runs away this series than they've scored and suddenly the Cards can't hit Barry Zito?  I can't believe I'm going to have to be a Tiger fan for the Series.  Gross.  But I sure as shit can't root for the Giants.  I feel sick.  Whatever.  Let's look at some chicks and talk some roundball.

38.  Texas Longhorns.  Similar to last year's team, this Texas squad will be deep and talented in the back court with major question marks in the front court.  Dissimilar to last year's team, they won't have last year's leading scorer in the Big 12 (at 20.1ppg) J'Covan Brown, who left the team to enter the NBA draft and then didn't get drafted like a genius.  Stupid name guy Myck Kabongo will be the key as the team's point guard and best player, but his status is currently in limbo due to some agent related nonsense.  Although the agent is the same guy who represents Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph and Kabongo is also part of that bizarre Canada/Texas pipeline, so I'm pretty sure he's definitely guilty of whatever.  I believe suspension is the only answer.  

37.  Miami Hurricanes.  It's very possible I'm overrating the Canes since my ranking for them (particularly ahead of FSU) doesn't seem to jibe with most others I've seen, but I like a lot about this team.  Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji are both double-double threats at all times and averaged 22 points and 13 rebounds per game between them.  Johnson is 6-10, 292 lbs.  Kadji is 6-11, 242 lbs.  They're both seniors so they aren't about to fuck around this season.  They do lose two of last year's three starting guards, but they get by far the best one back in Durand Scott, and Shane Larkin (yes, Barry's kid) is going to be in his second year and can give the Canes a real live point guard for the first time in a while.  He was one of the best point guard prospects a year ago and had a decent freshman year, but it's time for him to step up to the plate and go yard from the duguot with a rosin bag before the Hurricanes boot one and strike out in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded.

36.  Valparaiso Crusaders.  Valpo won the Horizon regular season title last year before getting crushed by Detroit in the Horizon Tournament Final, but with their top two players and lots of seniors back they are the favorite to take the conference again, and hopefully (for them) not flame out again.  And if they make the tournament you'll hear way too much about them because, admittedly, they're kind of an interesting team.  The coach is Bryce Drew who hit the second greatest shot in NCAA Tournament history (behind that dude from Northwestern State who hit the shot to knock out Iowa because fuck Iowa).  Their best player (and last season's conference player of the year) was a finalist to make the Australian Olympic team.  Their second best player has played internationally for both the Canary Islands and the Netherlands.   They have a dude from Jamaica.  They have guys who transferred from Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Indiana, Hawaii, Cal, South Florida, and Rice.  Seriously it's ridiculous.  I haven't seen this many transfers since Tark's days at Fresno.  Plus they have a guy with the last name Buggs, and since we all know Charles Buggs is going to be a superstar I can only assume the same for a guy who I assume is related.

35.  Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys season will basically come down to what kind of changes LeBryan Nash made this offseason.  Nash was the team's best player last season, should be again this year, and is probably the best player to suit up for OSU since JamesOn Curry.  The bad news, however, is that he shot an appalling 39% including just 24% from three despite jacking up the second most shots on the squad (behind the departed bomber Keiton Page).  He balanced out his poor shooting and shot selection by averaging just 1.5 assists per game and getting almost no steals.  He's insanely talented and if he can play smarter and maybe hit a jumper here and there these guys should be in line for an NCAA bid.  And hey, if everything works out he can become the next JamesOn Curry and enter the NBA draft after his junior year and then fail to get drafted in the first round.  It's good to have dreams.

 34.  Stanford Cardinal.  Yes, the dreaded Cardinal.  Enders of the Gophers season and world champions of the NIT.  And, as we all know, winning the NIT is a strong predictor of future success the following season.  I'm just kidding of course, it means exactly jack shit.  More than anything it's just says you were a crappy team that couldn't be bothered to get into the NCAA Tournament, and barring a stellar recruiting class coming in you're probably still terrible.  And they are.  They have a good back court in Chasson Randle and Aaron Bright and some decently experienced guys, but nothing really special.  Which is why they're ranked 34th and are incredibly boring.  Or maybe they're ranked 34th because they're boring?  I don't know.  I'm tired and hate Kyle Lohse.

Now that I think about it, Detroit gets to set their rotation with Verlander first and I assume Scherzer second and will have the option to go with JV three times.  The Giants will have to go with Lincecum and Zito to start it off and will only get to throw Cain once.  I'm thinking we make some money on the Tigers.  We goin' Sizzla.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39

DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #46-39

Man weather is such a dick.  The Cards/Giants are still sitting there, like 3 hours after their delay started, waiting to resume play in the 8th and the Yanks/Tigers has been postponed now until tomorrow.  Sucks.  So here's something else that's a thing you could do:

46.  Detroit Titans.  Ray McCallum is still there.  Three years ago two big-time recruits signed with smaller schools to play for their dads.  One (Trey Ziegler at CMU) saw his father fired after two dismal seasons and bolted to Pitt, the other is McCallum and after advancing to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Horizon tournament last year the Titans are looking to do even more.  There are some notable losses, particularly size-wise in Eli Holman, but there are a couple of senior forwards capable of putting up good numbers who should help balance things with McCallum.  Plus they got Juwon Howard, Jr. this year.  Juwon Howard Junior!  Hell yeah!

45.  Tennessee Volunteers.  Bruce Pearl left Tennessee looking like a mess, but behind some solid leadership from Cuonzo Martin (CUONZO!) they actually had a pretty solid year last season (NIT berth) and now return almost the entire team for another go at it.  And guys, their PF Jeronne Maymon is just a monster, and out of nowhere, too.  He was nothing, and then he just exploded into a guy who had double figure points or rebounds (or both) in the Vols last 15 games last year and put up double doubles against three of the teams toughest opponents last season (Kentucky, Memphis, and Duke) including a 32 point, 20 rebound performance against Memphis.  He's very Mbakwellian on the glass, just attacking every rebound as if his very life, nay, the fate of the planet, rested on him getting that ball.  Tennessee was always able to recruit under Pearl but he was such as shitty coach they were chronically underachieved.  Martin is a far better coach, and if he continues to get the same caliber of players to come to Tennessee this team is going to be a major player going forward. 

44.  UCONN Huskies.  UCONN can't play in the postseason this year because of I don't know grades or some dumb arbitrary NCAA rule that punishes players who had nothing to do with the infraction, and as a result of that had to watch Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith bolt to Missouri and UNLV respectively (along with Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb to the NBA) and will be going with a new coach in Kevin Ollie, but there's still plenty of talent here to screw over at least a Big East team or two's at-large hopes with some big wins.  That is, of course, if DeAndre Daniels can become what he was supposed to become.  Daniels was a top-10 recruit last season who chose UCONN over Kentucky, Florida, Duke, and Kansas but ended up buried on the bench much of last season.  If he can blossom with a bigger role and mesh with outstanding guard tandem Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier the Huskies could be awfully good.  Of course without cheater Calhoun who knows how this all shakes out.  They could win four games and I wouldn't be surprised.

43.  Davidson Wildcats.  Davidson is a little bit annoying to me in their consistency, but here they are, back again, heavy favorites to win the SoCon and just good enough to scare or beat a team or two once they inevitably get to the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed.  Pretty much the entire team returns from last season when they put a scare in Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but what's interesting about this iteration of the Wildcats is rather than being overly dependent on guards and 3-pointers, their two best players are a pair of forwards (including the SoCon Player of the Year and the other guy might actually be better) who can hit it, but don't need to.  They leave that to the 200 guards Davidson has running around.  Again.

42.  Harvard Crimson.  Well Tommy Amaker's got a nice little thing going here.  In 2010 they made the CIT.  In 2011, the NIT after tying for the Ivy League crown and losing in a one game playoff.  Then last year they won the Ivy to make the NCAA Tournament, losing to fifth-seeded Vanderbilt by nine (yes, I picked Harvard).  They do lose last year's Ivy League Player of the Year, but have everybody else back and Nevermind somehow I missed that Harvard has a bunch of guys embroiled in an academic scandal including their best player and both co-captains who are no longer on the team so drop these guys off the list, bump everyone up one, and throw Northwestern at the end or something.  Gotta have some nerds, somehow.

41.  Florida State Seminoles.  Maybe I'm way off on FSU because they are 24th in the first Coaches' Poll that just came out, but I'm not seeing it.  Losing four starters including your entire inside presence in Bernard James and Xavier Gibson is, like sticking a paperclip into a power outlet, no picnic.  Yeah, they still have Michael Snaer and you know they'll be tenacious on defense and won't back down, but you know who else is tenacious and never backs down?  My two-year old, and by the end of most days he's either run into a wall face first or fallen off some random piece of furniture and landed on his head.  Every once in a while, however, he'll get a big win by throwing a matchbox car and hitting Mrs. W right in the face. 

40.  Murray State Racers.  Things could be a bit tougher for the Racers this year, what with losing three starters and having to deal with Belmont's move to the OVC, but Murray State has developed a "Gonzaga-lite" reputation for a reason.  They have a whole bunch of experienced seniors and generally play a deep bench so even if these guys don't have impressive stats you can bet they can play, and Murray State keeps bringing in solid recruiting classes to keep that pipeline going as well.  Not to mention they still have Isaiah Canaan who led them to the tournament last year, winning the OVC Player of the Year Award, and then promptly sucked (8-30 in two NCAA Tourney games).  Now a senior, Canaan should be able to do more assuming they get to that point again, because everyone knows that noted chokers always get better over time, right A-Rod?

39.  St. Joe's Hawks.  I actually feel like I might be underrating these guys a bit, because this team kind of has that feeling of building something that might be cresting this season.  Last season the Hawks won 20 games (9 in A-10 play) and snagged an NIT berth, not bad considering the two previous years they won 22 games combined.  Carl Jones, C.J. Aiken, and Langston Galloway (who you remember from such games as against the Gophers two straight years) are now in their third year playing together with Aiken growing into a force in the paint, Galloway developing into a dead-eye shooter from the wing, and Jones, well, he's pretty much the same chucker he's always been since he arrived in Philly and maybe these guys will be even better when he's gone next season (the other two are juniors) but whatever.  St. Joe's' has been crappy since Jameer Nelson and Delonte West left and now they have hope.  Can't you just let them have hope with their cheesesteaks?


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47

DWG's NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #52-47

I know plenty of people are busy tonight with the debate and the Tigers/Yankees game, but I can only watch the debates 30 seconds at a time without falling asleep or dying of self-inflicted gangrene and it seems silly to write about the Tigers/Yankees game because I don't really feel like writing "Verlander gets another stupid Yankee out easily" twenty-seven times.  Thus insteadly here are some NCAA Basketball previews.  I hope you enjoy them.

I'm just kidding.  I really don't give a crap.  I know you're reading this at work and have nothing better to do with your time anyway.

52.  Illinois State Redbirds.  Creighton, Wichita State, and Northern Iowa seem to get most of the Missouri Valley headlines and hype, but this could end up being Illinois State's big year.  Last year's team took Creighton down to the wire in the MVC Championship before losing in overtime, then beat Ole Miss in the NIT before falling to eventual champ Stanford (also in OT).  That same team returns pretty much intact (including stud Jackie Carmichael who, according to anything you read on ISU on the internet "wowed" people at the LeBron Skills Academy).  They do lose their starting point guard from last season who transferred to SMU to tag along with the Redbirds' coach last year, and nobody's sure if they have a player who can fill that role capably, but who cares?  Their nickname is the Redbirds for christ's sake, and if the baseball playoffs have taught us anything (other than the Yankees suck) it's that Redbirds never die.

51.  Marshall Thundering Herd.  Marshall hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1987 and has never won a game, but they've been awfully close lately which seems interesting or something I guess.  Last year they were in the hunt until a killer loss to a terrible ECU team knocked them out of the at-large running and then they were crushed in the C-USA Tournament Championship game by Memphis.  Two years prior they came out of the blocks at 15-2 before sucking the rest of the year.  Will this be the year they finally break through?  No.

50.  Belmont Bruins.  Belmont takes a big step up in the world this year, shifting from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley which means capturing an at-large bid goes from impossible to simply unlikely.  And once again, this will be the same kind of hyper-efficient team that takes care of the basketball and shoots well, but likely lacks the athleticism to truly compete with the big-time programs and really good teams.  And once again they'll probably end up in the NCAA Tournament matched up against somebody better, and everyone (myself included) will talk themselves into how Belmont could be a sweet 16 sleeper and end up picking them to beat a #4 seed in round one only to watch in horror as they get blown out by 20 and a have to put a big red X on my bracket before the first games of day 1 are out.  Looking forward to it already.

49.  Arkansas Razorbacks.  What's the best way to rebound from John Pelphrey trying to run the program straight into the ground?  Hire the sweet Mike Anderson, Nolan Richardson's protege, and let the Hogs run wild.  It didn't quite kick in for year 1, but based on his track record at UAB and Missouri I'd imagine we'll see Arkansas back in the tournament in a year or two.  Guard play is the key to running Anderson's system and Arkansas is plenty loaded here.  B.J. Young, who flirted a bit with the Gophers (while, they more threw themselves at him and he didn't say no right away - like your sister at a kegger) had a monster freshman year and probably could have gone pro but stayed on for another year, and he's got plenty of other perimeter help.  You know fun Missouri was to watch the last several years?  Yeah, that's coming to Fayetteville.  I wish I could bet on things like, Arkansas will be ranked in the top 10 at some point in the next 3 years.  I'd totally win a bunch of money.  Just like how Snacks will owe me fifty bucks when the Royals win the AL Central sometime by 2014 (a bet we made 2 years ago).  Yeah.  It's coming.  I've already spent that money investing in pumpkins.  They've been going up the month of October.  I figure if I hold those babies until January and then cash out.  BAM!  BOATLOADS!

48.  Colorado State Rams.  I don't think anyone would dispute that losing Tim Miles (to Nebraska) is a blow considering how he builds programs, but if you're going to lose a guy like that (and it was inevitable) you could do a whole lot worse than hiring Larry Eustachy.  I know it's easy to think about the scandal where he was busted partying with young college chicks but let's be honest who wouldn't want to do that, but don't forget the guy is a damn good coach.  This is the same guy who just took a garbage program in Southern Miss to the NCAA Tournament last year and had lots of success at Iowa State, and he's also the guy who started Utah State's run of brilliance back in 1998 (hadn't been to the tournament in 10 years).  And now he inherits a team that made the tournament last season and he gets most of the team back, plus Colton Iverson.  Eustachy and Iverson!  Count me in.  That's like a modern day Balki and Cousin Larry.

47.  Cal Bears.  These guys could end up with one of the best backcourts in the Pac-12 and, sad and horrifying as it is, part of the reason is Justin Cobbs.  Freed from the restraints of Tubby's molasses style offense Cobbs ended up averaging 12.6 points (16th in the conference) and 5.0 assists (2nd) per game last season, and he's probably not even the teams best guard - that would be Allen Crabbe.  They have to figure out how to replace two big losses including their lead point guard and their best post player, but having two good guards and playing in the shitbox Pac-12 pretty much assures Cal will at least be in the running for an NCAA bid.  Mother-effing Cobbs.


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