Tuesday's Tourney - The Grandest of them All.

Three more teams grabbed bids last night:  Wofford, Manhattan, and Northeastern.  Wofford was the #1 seed and will probably end up somewhere around that 12th seed spot with a legit chance at an upset, depending on the matchup.  Northeastern was a top team in their conference but is most likely going to have to face a #2 seed, and the #2s are very strong this year.  Manhattan cost us Iona.

See, both Manhattan and Iona are super fun teams that like to play circus ball, which means entertainment so on some level we should be happy with either of them.  However, Iona probably would have been like a 14 seed or so, and would have ended up playing someone at least somewhat vulnerable like a Maryland or an Oklahoma (and Iona/Oklahoma would be super fun).  Manhattan, on the other hand, will most likely, unless lots of conference tournaments go sideways, end up in the First Four, so even if they get passed someone like Texas Southern they'll end up playing a one seed, who will probably stomp a hole in them.  Once again, Conference Tournaments are super fun but are also the worst.

Only one tournament gets going today;

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE:
Conference realignment has torn the Big East apart and strengthened the ACC, no doubt.  That makes it easy to mourn the Big East Tournament, but I kinda miss the old ACC Tournament as well.  Growing up the Big Ten didn't have a tournament, the ACC was on TV all the time, the programs were really good, and their style of play was a blast so I fell in love with the ACC Tournament.  That super cool court in Greensboro, Randolph Childress destroying everybody, Fire and Ice, and some serious Duke vs. Maryland battles.  It makes me feel like some cranky old man, but I really wish the ACC was the same (and the Big East).  But I now I'm not a cranky old man, because I like lots of other changes.  Not like my friend The Bear.  He hates everything that ever changes.

FAVORITE:  Virginia.  I keep doubting the Cavaliers (well, for the last two years when they've been good) and they keep proving me wrong.  A 28-2 record is no joke, especially going through the ACC where they only lost in close games to Duke and Louisville, both of whom will likely be top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.  The loss of Justin Anderson has them extra vulnerable since he was their one ace shooter and more of the offense will fall to Malcolm Brogdon, but this team does it with defense anyway, so they should be fine.  That defense is amazing.

SLEEPER:  Syracuse.  They can't go to the NCAA Tournament anyway so their motivation might be suspect, and the whole NCAA hammering them thing may make them even more ready to crawl under a rock and be done with this season, but it also could do that thing where it makes a team band together and try harder or whatever they always show us in movies.  They still play great defense, and though the offense has been challenged at best this year what if Trevor Cooney decides "hey you know what? I'm going to mix it up and actually make a bunch of shots now."?  It could happen.  Probably not.  North Carolina State.

THE PICK:  Duke.  Duke is rolling.  After some early conference jitters where they went 3-3 for a stretch, the Blue Devils have rolled off eleven straight included a sweep of the Tar Heels, a 30-point stomping of Notre Dame, and a road win at Virginia - that's impressive.  Jahlil Okafor may have hit a bit of a freshman wall but he's still a beast to deal with, Tyus Jones (sorry) has simply been amazing running that team, and Quinn Cook has transformed himself from offensive afterthought to big time scorer.  They're ready to run the ACC table here.  And they're still perfectly flawed enough to be upset early in the NCAA Tournament.  Win/win.


One billion conference tournaments start tomorrow.  I better get started.

Syracuse Recap and Arkansas Preview

Well.....damn.  I sure wasn't expecting that.  Syracuse is a top 10 team, and not just because they're ranked in the top 10 - they're legitimately one of the handful of National Title contenders.  I kind of expected the entire game to look like the first four minutes, but in reality without those first four minutes this game might have had a completely different outcome because the Gophers either outplayed or played right with Syracuse for the majority of the game.  The Orange had to play pretty much the entire 40 minutes, and that's more than I was expecting.

I wish I could get more in depth, but a combination of my uncharacteristic ability to get out of a late meeting, some technology issues, and my kids being completely batshit insane meant that I missed a lot more than I saw.  From what I saw, and that stats, a few points:

• Rebounding was dead square even at 32-32.  I really, really did not expect that.  As much as it kills my preconceived narrative for this season, and although it's just one game, perhaps the Gophers will be ok in the paint this year.  Eliason suddenly looking like more than "a decent back-up", Joey King, whether he figured it out on his own or if Pitino beat it into his head, has figured out he needs to be in the paint not living on the perimeter and is giving off a real Dusty Rychart vibe, and Oto Osenieks is not 100% incompetent as a big.  Now they get a possibly rejuvenated Mo Walker back.  Curiouser and curiouser.
• Turnovers.  Gross.  Malik Smith has a Maverick like handle, but who doesn't love a guy who's always looking for a heat check.  Also, only seven guys played all night for the Gophers.  I dig. 
• Draustin Hollins is Draustin Hollins.  Even when they play a bit off, they're still the best players' on the team and will keep the Gophers in pretty much any game.  Dre Mathieu as the third wheel might be the biggest key for the team this year.  The X-Factor if you're into that kind of stupid thing.
• Really enjoyed seeing how Pitino coached/game-planned against a legit opponent.  I really liked how the Gophers switched defenses/offenses randomly at times.  Like, when they were in a 2-3 and then all of a sudden on one possession they jumped the ball-handler as he crossed half court.  There were a few of those moments and they were awesome.  I'm not saying you can't be successful by running the same thing over and over again (see tonight's opponent and the 2-3 zone) but I like a little variety in my life.  Which is why I got married at 23 years old.   

 So, despite a a really good effort by the team, success or failure for teh Gophers in this tournament depends on their beating Arkansas tomorrow.  A loss vs. Arkansas means a  trip to the 7th place game, which will almost certainly be against Chaminade, which likely means a 1-2 record with zero wins over D-I teams.  That's no good.  What is good, is that the Gophers should be able to handle the Razorbacks.

If you watched the Gophers vs. Syracuse that's good, because Arkansas is kind of like a mish mash of those two teams.  Like if you took the Gophers and their pressing and uptempo style of play and mixed the DNA with the Syracuse DNA of having a whole bunch of long athletic players and mixed them you'd get Arkansas - but they would be the Danny DeVito version, not the Arnold Schwatzenegger one.  That makes me seem old, doesn't it?  Well that's because I am really old.  Let's just say that Arkansas is kind of like Syracuse and kind of like the Gophers but way worse than either.

I caught a little bit of the Cal/Arkansas game today, and although the Razorbacks will press like crazy and create turnovers that way (and that's how the Gophers lose this one, if they do, tons of turnovers) but when the press is broken or in the half court there defense is absolutely horrendous.  Similarly, if they can create those turnovers and get easy buckets or if they can get out in transition and create easy opportunities that way they can be dangerous, but if you can cut off their early break the half court offense is mostly one-on-one isolation plays and crashing the boards for second chances.

Really, this is a game where if the Gophers play sound fundamentally they should handle Arkansas with little issue.  Of course, you never know, but I'm encouraged and optimistic after tonight.

Minnesota 88, Arkansas 73.

Hoops Preview: Gophers vs. Syracuse

The beginning of the season, and the Richard Pitino Era, couldn't have gotten off to a much better start with the Gophers sitting at 5-0.  They've beaten up the cupcakes, survived a tough road game against a decent opponent, and proved good enough to battle a better than expected Coastal Carolina game and come out with a victory.  Now things get really interested, before getting super boring, as they head out to Maui to take on some very good opponents, starting with Syracuse.

As Pitino said in his press conference - you know what you're going to get from Boeheim and the Orange, and that's not a knock on them.  The first thing you have to worry about is that pesky 2-3 zone, and this year might be it's best iteration.  Syracuse can trot out five guys who are 6-7 or bigger to play it if they choose and they won't lose anything offensively because Michael Gbinje (transfer from Duke) can play the point.  Usually, however, they'll only have four of these guys and then another guard, either Tyler Ennis (6-4) or Trevor Cooney (also 6-4).  All this height and length means they not only can shut down a whole lot of passing lanes, but it also cuts down on the amount of the floor smaller guards (GULP!) can actually see, so one of the best ways to beat a zone, a skip pass, becomes close to impossible.  It also means if you're going to try to kill the zone with 3-point shooting, you'll need to create that much extra room in order to get a shot off.  In short, running this kind of zone with these kind of athletes with this kind of size under a coach who's been teaching it for like 60 years is pretty unfair.

What that combination has resulted in this season is a team that, well, is pretty much what you'd expect: they're creating a ton of turnovers (27% of opponent's possessions end in a turnover, 5th in the country) with a ton of steals (18%, 1st in country) and blocks (21%, 7th) and controlling the boards on both ends (8th in offensive rebounding, 21st in defensive).  Syracuse sports four players in the top 200 in steal percentage with two in the top 175 for blocked shot % (and another at 407).  This is a tough, tough defense to crack, but luckily there's one big weakness so far this year and it's one that plays into what the Gophers need to do to win this game - three point shooting.

Although there's some debate as to whether how much three point shooting is controlled by the defense given that there's very little correlation from year-to-year, especially compared to other statistics, but Syracuse's opponents have shot 37% this year, ranking the Orange D 253rd in the country, and you don't end up with that kind of ranking unless you're giving up open shots.  The Gophers have done a tremendous job of taking care of the ball this year (20th in the nation in turnover %) so if they can continue to do so and use ball penetration and quick passing (whoever plays the high post is going to be very important in this game) to get some open looks and get hot, that's going to be huge for the Gophers to pull it off.

Offensively, the Orange have actually been pretty crappy.  They're shooting the ball like hell so far and can't make free throws, but they take care of it pretty well and make up for all those misses by crashing the glass really well - not too far off what you'd expect from a young but very tall and athletic team with a freshman point guard.  With the departure of three major pieces from last year's team (Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams, and James Southerland) C.J. Fair has tried to step in as the go to scorer, and although his stats are up (14.5 ppg to 18.0 ppg) his efficiency is down (more shots, lower percentage going in).  Same story with Jerami Grant, and with the freshman Ennis really struggling to shoot (29% from the floor) and their high field goal percentage inside guys (DaJuan Coleman and Rakeem Christmas) not getting/taking a lot of shots they've struggled for reliable scoring.

Syracuse was one of my top 10 teams coming into the season, and despite a struggle against St. Francis (NY) I'm not sure there's really any need to revise that.  Although I've been impressed by the Gophers so far and I'm starting to think they're better than I initially thought, going up against a team this talented and this big is too much in my opinion.  The Gophers could end up winning by getting hot and hitting a bunch of threes, and I've reached a point now where a win here actually wouldn't surprise me, but I think Syracuse is too big for a team with small guards and little to no depth in the paint.  Hopefully I'm wrong, but as long as the Gophers can go 2-1 I'll call this a very successful tournament.

Syracuse 70, Minnesota 63.

Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed

The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday.  And here it is.  Rankings are from last year.

11/8 vs. LEHIGH  (RPI 107, kenpom 96):  A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late.  The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school.  Nerds and wrestling I think.  Definitely not basketball. 

11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year!  Let's rock and roll!  Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season.  Yes, that is correct.  I'm serious.  No you shut up.

11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83):  The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule.  Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational.  Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment.  Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer. 

11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226):  Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either.  On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza).  I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond.  He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.

11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256):  Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team.  Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.

11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14,  in Maui, kenpom 8):  The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year.  Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije.  He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke.  He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school.  He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times.  As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."

11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui:  Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something.  This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one.  Hope for Cal.

11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I):  Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67).  Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents.  Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result.  Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton.  Not bad, but not great.  Like a night with your mom.

12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124):  Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn.  Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse.  Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace.  Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all.  Don't tell Gardy. 

12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346):  Now things get really, really ugly.  You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up.  They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own).  Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation.  I got news for you though.  Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door. 

12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103):  I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what?  With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again.  Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters?  Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair.  I don't know what he's waiting for.  There is good news, however.  According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year.  So shut it already.

12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321):  I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign.  They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back.  The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha.  Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM.  The college World Series is still in Omaha.  I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln).  I'm just writing random facts now.  I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself.  Here is what I wrote that night.  Gripping.

12/28 vs.  TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309):  Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing?  Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right?  Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins.  I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.


The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300.  The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100.  A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games.  It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."

Gophers to play Syracuse in Maui Invitational

The Brackets were revealed for the Maui Invitational today, and your favorite team will play Syracuse in the first round, a game that is interesting not just because playing a team like the Orange is pretty sweet, but also because the rumored package deal of Isaiah Whitehead and Ja'Quan Newton is also considering the Cuse along with Minnesota.  WINNER TAKES ALL.

Interesting clash here, considering the Gophers are almost totally perimeter based right now thanks to the graduation of Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, while the Orange lost Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams, and James Southerland and will be more reliant on inside play than ever with nearly every impact returnee an inside (or wing at best) player.  Of course, this being Jim Boeheim and Syracuse and they don't rebuild they just reload, they are bringing in ESPN's #5 point guard (#20 overall) in the country in Tyler Ennis as well as a couple forwards in the Top 100, which means the Cuse will have a huge size advantage over Minnesota but will be relying on a freshman point guard against a veteran laden opposing backcourt as well.

Speaking of point guards and dealing with some difficulties, the Gopher guards will have to contend with Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone.  The good news is Coach Pitino has experience in game planning for it from his days with Louisville.  The bad news is Syracuse's zone will likely be made up of Ennis and four guys who are at least 6-8 with wing spans that could probably cover the entire court end-to end.  The other good news, is without the guys who left Syracuse has almost no 3-point shooting unless one of the incoming freshmen is a marksman.  The other bad news, is I'm terrified of the Gopher guards going up against this zone, but that's from years of scarring after watching Monson and Tubby coached teams go up against zone defenses and collectively lose their shit.  Things should be different with Pitino at the helm.  Could be different.  Hopefully.  Please please please be different.

Anyway, this is a pretty sweet draw, and then in round two they will face either Arkansas or Cal, depending on win/lose.  I'm too tired to look it up, but I'm pretty sure Arkansas still sucks and Cal is a fringe NCAA team, so Cal would be the much better match-up but the Gophers would have to beat Cuse to get to them most likely.  Right now I'm not sure I see that happening, but hey, hooray for optimism.  Looking forward to it.


Elsewhere, brackets for a bunch of the other tournaments were announced as well.  Of note:

OLD SPICE CLASSIC (Big Ten rep: PURDUE):  The Boilers caught a rough draw in the first round in National Champion contender Oklahoma State (you heard it here first), especially much of the rest of this tournament is blah at best.  Outside of Memphis (and OK St) the best team might be LSU (who is supposed to be better this year) and that's an ugly tournament.  The good news for the Boilers is they should be able to run right through the loser's bracket to end up going 2-1.

VEGAS INVITATIONAL (Big Ten rep: NORTHWESTERN):  It's not a tournament because the matchups are already set between four teams (Northwestern, UCLA, Missouri, and Nevada) with UCLA and Missouri each playing Northwestern and Nevada.  Because we aren't getting that UCLA vs. Missouri match-up this is a super boring tournament invitational.

PUERTO RICO TIP-OFF (Big Ten rep: MICHIGAN):  Assuming the Wolverines can get past Long Beach, and they should, and VCU can get past FSU, and they should thank you very much Andrew Wiggins, that's a heck of a second round match-up.  After Michigan blew up everyone's bracket in dramatic fashion by blowing the doors off VCU last year, I'm interested to see how they handle havoc without either Burke or Hardaway.  Georgetown should come out the other side, now that Bruce Weber has another year under his belt at Kansas State and should begin dismantling everything Bob Huggins and Frank Martin built.

LEGENDS CLASSIC:  No Big Ten rep in this one, but notable because of Texas Tech and Tubby Smith's appearance.  The Red Raiders actually may be able to win their semifinal match-up (there are only 4 teams) against Pitt since the Panthers lost a ton off last year's team, but then they can expect to get their doors blown off by either Stanford or Houston.  Neither team is great, but Texas Tech is significantly worse than either.  Then again, Tubby has shown an aptitude for getting the most out of his teams in these early tournaments, so maybe his magic will work again.  Just watch out for February.

WOODEN LEGACY:  This is kind of a crappy tournament with teams like Fullerton and George Washington involved (and on the same side of the bracket for some reason) but there's probably enough intrigue to make this interesting considering how much people want to make sex to Doug McDermott of Creighton.  I'm most interested in seeing if Maurice Creek (transferred to GW) can make an impact or if those knees are 100% shot.

There's other tournaments too but they're mostly boring and holy crap did I ever just run out of steam.  Go to ESPN or whatever.  I'm done here.

Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament

Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good.  I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2.  I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.)  I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.

Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:

1)  Florida or Georgetown?  There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure:  Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown.  Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds.  I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense.  Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker.  I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.

2)  What do do with Wisconsin.  I hate this.  I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong.  Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all.  I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps.  So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out.  I'm still rooting against them though.  If you don't it means you hate America.

3)  Who comes out of the West?  In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders.  Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently.  Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it.  That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle.  If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.).  Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes.  The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.

4)  Can Louisville Survive?  I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch.  I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here.  The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there.  Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous.  Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work.  Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3.  So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.

5)  Who upsets Kansas?  I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced?  I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember.  I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas?  And after that their worst loss was to Butler?  The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams.  They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas?  It could happen, kids, it could happen.

6)  How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me.  I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse.  As it turns out, I think they are.  They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship.  Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.

That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.

Week in Review - 1/21/2013

I really have no idea why I stopped doing these posts.  They're fairly easy, since I can write parts of them during the week, they cover all sports for an entire week period, and they give you, the idiot reader, something to depend on knowing this post will be here every Monday morning.  I'm going to do my best to get back on this and start having the Monday morning Week in Review's again.  Or your money back.  And I'm going to start with Lance Armstrong.

Ha ha just kidding.  I don't care. 

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Joe Flacco.  As much as I hate to give credit when it's due, I'm going to have to in Flacco's case because he had a great game getting the Ravens to the Super Bowl and outplayed Tom Brady to do it.  He seems to have developed a couple interesting skills to go with one of the strongest arms in the league - he can pick apart a defense underneath using his backs and TEs, and he has that over the shoulder throw to Boldin in the end zone down cold.  Both of his touchdown throws to Boldin were on that same play, and more than half his completions were to backs or tight ends, and then he can cut loose with that big arm to Torrey Smith when needed.  It will be kind of interesting to see how he adjusts in the red zone when the 49ers inevitably put a safety on top of Boldin when they get close.  I also just realized this is going to be a Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh Super Bowl and we're going to have to hear that over and over and over again.  Oh god, and also Ray Lewis.  And I have a feeling Colin Kaepernick is going to get way too much press, too.  God I am suddenly remembering how much I hate the 2 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl.  Don't they have some kind of 2-week coma drug?  I know the wife and kids probably wouldn't be down for me going in that direction, but I'm not sure I have a choice.  Not my fault.

2.  Washington Nationals.  In a baseball hot stove league that's been characterized by teams "going for it in their window" more than any other I can remember (Baltimore Orioles exempted, for some reason) the Nats just made another move that put them in the Dodgers/Blue Jays tier for "going for it" signing closer Rafael Soriano to a two year, $28 million deal with an option that automatically vests if he finishes 120 combined games in the two years.  That now gives the Nationals a bullpen of Tyler Clippard in the 7th, Drew Storen in the 8th, and Soriano in the 9th, and that's in front of a rotation of Stephen Strasburg/Gio Gonzalez/Jordan Zimmermann/Dan Haren/Ross Detwiler.  Their also loaded with a young and talented lineup with only one bad contract (Jayson Werth), Wilson Ramos will be back at catcher, they traded for Denard Span to fill their only real lineup leak, and resigned Adam LaRoche to a reasonable contract which gives them an excellent trade chip (Michael Morse, now a back-up who was just traded to Seattle in a three-way deal that brought them a couple decent prospects because lord knows they don't have enough) all at the same time.  Yes, paying $14 million to a reliever is too much especially when you have to give up a first round pick to do it, but I'm a big fan of this "going for it" thing and I'd say they're in pretty decent shape.  At least until they shutdown Strasburg after 190 innings this year because, you know, you can never be too careful.

3.  Butler Bulldogs.  I don't know if it's Brad Stevens or what (NOTE: it's probably Brad Stevens) but Butler just keeps on going.  When they made those back-to-back NCAA Championship games you kind of figured like, ok he found a few diamonds in the rough in Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard (really rough, in his case) and Stevens got them to perfectly come together for a magical run (or two) and then they'd go back to being Butler.  When they missed the NCAA Tournament (made the CBI) last season everything looked confirmed.  But now?  First Stevens gets Rotnei Clarke, and ultra-experienced deadeye shooter who fits Butler's system perfectly, to come to Indy, joining a couple of decent players, and you figure Butler would probably be decent.  Little did you know Clarke was going to play out of his mind and a couple promising youngsters would suddenly blossom into double-digit scorers.  Then Clarke gets hurt against Richmond and you'd think Butler would slide, but they had no issue finishing up Richmond, and then played a really, really good Gonzaga team and did this:

I hate teams that are always good because I'm so unfamiliar with it.  It's like an Amish who was dropped in Dubai.

4. Florida Gators.  For my money, there are six teams (seven if you count my super sleeper VCU) who could potentially win the NCAA Championship this year - Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan, Indiana, Duke, and the sixth is Florida.  For some reason they're only ranked 10th.  Why?  Because they have two losses, although those happen to be at Arizona (a one-loss team) in a game Florida controlled for 38 minutes before letting it slip away, and against a good Kansas State in Kansas City.  Look at their recent results.  After a week of dominating fools they've now won their four SEC games by 33 (vs. Georgia), 22 (@ LSU), 21 (@ Texas A&M), and 31 (vs. Missouri).  I know Mizzou is in kind of a tailspin right now with Bowers hurt and Dixon having been kicked off the team, but beating that team by 31 is still damn impressive.  Florida is one of the few teams in the country with a great offense and a great defense, with great players both on the perimeter and in the paint.  I feel pretty effing good having gotten down on them at 12-1 to win the whole thing.  Don't think, just do it.

5.  Syracuse Orangemen.  I've touted Louisville as my #1 team in the country so I need to give credit to the Orange for taking them down on the road, and actually this was the game that convinced me to put Cuse in that "could win the title" group because they played great in a tough environment.  I have no idea why Syracuse has kind of been under my radar, but I assume it's because I'm an idiot.  They're loaded at guard and play two point guards in Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams, which they can get away with because they're 6-4 and 6-6, and an awesome front court that includes two great scorers (C.J. Fair and James Southerland) and a defensive superstar (Rakeem Christmas).  Their only loss was to Temple at MSG, and they now have probably the best win of anyone this season with that roadie vs. the #1 team to legitimize them.  They do have a big issue hanging over them with Southerland's indefinite suspension due to some kind of academic issue, but I would assume he'll be back soon enough given that Syracuse is a big time hoops school and so the administrators probably understand it's best to get him back on the court. 

Stupid Joel Maturi.

WHO SUCKED

1.   Gopher basketball.  I'm not giving up on the season, thinking they suck, or anything like that.  I mean they have three losses this season and they're all to teams that have been ranked in the top 3 this season, and only the Duke game was a double digit loss.  What sucks, and why I have to put the Gophers here, is that I'm having trouble imagining them as a Final Four team anymore, simply because there have been stretches in all three losses where they've been absolutely dominated, and the domination wasn't for a short period of time but a very long one.  Michigan outscored them 20-7 over a 7 minute period, Indiana had that entire first half, and Duke pretty much controlled the whole game.  For much of this year I had considered the Gophers to be a possible Final Four contending team and maybe the best Gopher team of my life.  That seems laughable now, as I'm fairly certain the '97 team would crush these guys.

That's not to say this can't be a very good year.  I'm picturing the team now as a top 5 finisher in the Big 10 with like a 5 seed and a decent shot to make the Sweet 16.  Wouldn't we all have taken that coming into the season?  Of course we would have.  By any measure (for the Gopher program) that's a successful season, it's just that it felt like the bar had been raised and that this might be a special team, rather than a very good one.  It's hard to feel that way anymore after watching Michigan completely outclass them on their own court.  Hopefully they can sweet these next four winnable games and I can feel a bit better, and even though I know this is a really good Gopher team it's hard not to feel a bit of a gut punch here.  It's not the losses, it's the way they lost.  Hopefully they learn and move on.  I'm also now extremely terrified of going to Northwestern. 

2. Los Angeles Lakers.  I know I'm not exactly breaking new ground here because I think everyone is aware of the Lakers' struggles, but holy crap you guys.  Anybody who ever watched sports new their might be an adjustment period bringing in Nash to play with a guy who dominates the ball like Kobe (similar to the LeBron/Wade pairing initially) but even if it took them a while to get it figured out with complimentary players like Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol you'd expect them, worst case, to end up being a very dangerous low seed in the playoffs as they finally figured it out.  One problem - they're not figuring it out, and at 17-23 are in severe danger of missing the playoffs after losing to Toronto on Sunday (TORONTO!!) thanks in part to Howard getting booted for picking up two technicals.  They've now lost eight of their last ten, and count losses to the Raptors, Cavs, Magic, and the Kings among their failures this year - those are some bad teams.  Normally I would be enjoying this immensely, but I just acquired Kobe for my Fantasy NBA team and so now I don't hate him as much.

3.  Jordan Hulls.  So let me get this straight, the Underpants Gnome plays out of his mind against the Gophers but then plays like a total asshole against Wisconsin?  And don't you dare credit Wisconsin for this either, because he was just total garbage who couldn't shoot, only bothered to take 1 three-pointer (seriously with that range he only attempted one?  First time all year), and turned the ball over like he was giving it away for Valentine's Day to some handsome man.  Plus he was outplayed by Ben Brust who sucks.  And what was with Indiana doubling down on Ryan freaking Evans on the block?  Just let him go to work, you'll be better off letting him shoot.  The only possible explanations for this game was that Indiana felt invincible after beating the Gophers and forgot to try or Jordan Hulls threw the game.  Also, why do I have so much trouble spelling invincible?  Everything about this has my brain scrambled like Kevin Burleson trying to break a press.

4.  Matt Ryan.  I thought Ryan was getting a little too much heat for never having won a playoff game (probably because the Matty Ice nickname is so annoying) but it's hard to find a way to not blame that game on Ryan (with a major assist to the defense).  I'll even forgive him the pick because Roddy White fell down, but there were plenty of unforgivable mistakes.  The fumbled shot gun snap that San Fran recovered which hit him perfectly in the hands and not picking up a single first down after recovering the Crabtree fumble (giving the Niners great field position after a shitty punt) were both pretty awful, but Ryan saved his worst for the biggest play of the game.  On that fourth down inside the 10 he forced the ball to a non-open White, never bothering to look at any other receive and thus missing an absolutely wide open Tony Gonzalez who had slipped behind the linebackers and there wasn't a safety over the top - easy TD.  I should feel good about this loss because the Falcons screwed over the Vikings in '98, but I hate Jim Harbaugh, Ray Lewis, and the Patriots so Atlanta was my only chance to enjoy the Super Bowl.  Hopefully they'll be good food.

5.  Seattle Mariners. If I'm going to praise the Nationals for making a good move, I gotta point out that the Mariners apparently are assembling a softball team or something.  After acquiring Michael Morse in the above mentioned trade, they now have all these guys: Morse, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero.  Which means that even if they plan to give Montero another shot to be a catcher (LOL) they've still got five mostly immobile types to try to shoehorn into a lineup.  That means something like Montero at C, Ibanez in LF, Morse in RF, Morales at 1b, and either Smoak or Bay at DH with the other coming off the bench?  Ibanez and Morse as two of your 3 outfielders?  Franklin Gutierrez is very good, but he's not that good.  I guess the real point is why even trade for Morse?  Even if they've given up on Smoak (and if they have they should trade him to the Twins because I STILL BELIEVE DAMMIT) acquiring Morse brings nothing to you that you don't already have, and by trading John Jaso to do it you've severely downgraded your defense going to Montero, but they don't really have another choice because, again, they have way to many slow RF/DH/1b types to fit Montero's bat in any other way.  Seattle has the potential for a pretty kick-ass future (seriously their minor league pitchers are top shelf) but if they keep fucking up the present like this it's not going to matter.  Those Nintendo guys haven't done anything baseball-related right since Baseball Stars.  Remember Baseball Stars 2?  What were they thinking?


You'll notice I had the prudence to not write about this whole Manti Te'o thing because let's be honest, it's pretty played out at this point.  Was a pretty good day on twitter, though.  I also didn't write about hockey because it's a sport for cretins.  See you soon with a preview of the Northwestern game.  Or maybe just a link to the one I wrote like a week ago.  Jesus aren't they supposed to space these games out? 

Hello from Utah

What's up, nerds?  Friday the family drove for 10 hours, stopped in Kearney, Nebraska for the night at a horrific Best Western, then continued on our way the next morning for another 11 hours before finally arriving in Utah to spend Thanksgiving here with the wife's family.  Some day when I own my own plane things are going to be much easier.  Anyway we'll be running around like crazy people I'm sure so I'm not exactly sure how much sports I'll get to watch, but there'll be downtime in the evenings so I'll be able to find time to check in once in a while.  Like right now.

-  Being in Utah means that the Big 10 Network is not available, and because we are "visiting family" the best I could do was check in on my phone, read texts from Snacks and Grand Slam, and check out the stats after the game.  The 72-57 win over Richmond is a good margin and actually an easy cover, but from the looks of things this wasn't nearly that comfortable of a win.

The 19 turnovers are a terrifying amount for a team with NCAA aspirations and on the flip side turning Richmond over just 8 times is unacceptable for a team that prides itself on defense.  Yeah, Richmond's two best players are their guards who both have plenty of experience handling pressure and I get that, but I still would have expected at least double digits.  On the bright side the Gophers overall shot defense was once again outstanding (Richmond shot just 33% from the field and 20% from three) and rebounding (Gophers won, 37-20) were the difference, as well as Minnesota hitting from the field at a 57% clip.

The Gophers head into the Battle 4 Atlantis undefeated at 4-0 and this was the only game they've been remotely tested in.  Although they responded nicely, outscoring Richmond by 14 in the second half, and in the process gave the Spiders' their first loss, but it was still against a Richmond team that will probably end up in the middle of the Atlantic 10 whose three wins so far were against terrible terrible horrible teams.  I am very impressed with the Gophers' defense and rebounding (rank as the 3rd best defensive team in the country at kenpom) and it's nice to see Tubby shorten the bench and turn Mbakwe loose (9 points & 12 boards) but Duke is going to be a whole new class of opponent.  I don't feel real good about this, but I can't say I'd be completely shocked if they end up pulling this off.  Either way I can't wait to read about it the day after.

-  Sticking with the Big 10, apparently the latest rumor is Maryland and Rutgers might be joining the conference.  Since I don't really care about tradition or any of that stupid stuff and really just want the best possible basketball conference I can get with little to no regard to football, I'm on board with Maryland and would prefer they pass on Rutgers.  What I've more recently heard is that if it becomes official that Maryland is joining that Syracuse might try to jump out of the ACC, which it just joined, to come over to the Big 10 instead which is far preferable to Rutgers.  I'll have more of a post on this at some point but that's about all I got for now.

-  Here's my posts from back in the day the first time I took in a Utah State game and the first time I visited Weber State. 

-  With the first slate of tournaments done here are some observations and notes to pay attention to because I know more than you.

•  Oklahoma State won the Puerto Rico Tip-off and was the most impressive team to me looking at their victories.  They struggled to beat Akron in the opener and based on that game I thought the Cowboys looked pretty awful, but after topping the Zips in overtime they ripped off wins over Tennessee (by 17) and NC State (by 20) and announced the LeBryan Nash and Marcus Smart back-court combination as one of the best in the country.   Nash is unstoppable when he posts up another guard because of his size and skill and it now looks like he's got a lot more talent around him than we thought.  Looks like a legit team.
• The other team who impressed was Colorado which probably made you think this post was all like pro-Big 12 and stuff because you forgot Colorado was in the Pac-12 now.  On their way to winning the Charleston Classic the Buffaloes beat Dayton (meh), Baylor (great win), and Murray State (good win).  Colorado looks like it has a budding star in sophomore Askia Booker and with a good amount of returning talent, including post stud Andre Roberson, and a weak Pac-12 the Buffaloes are gonna be at the top of the conference and should be able to secure another bid this year.  
• Future Gopher opponent Florida State won the Coaches vs. Cancer classic with wins over St. Joe's (good win) and BYU (very good win).  These go a long way towards wiping out that crazy horrendous loss earlier this year to South Alabama.   The Seminoles are back to being a really good team and a road win there would be a huge win on the Gophers' March resume.
• Penn State was the only Big 10 team involved at this point and they ended up going to the consolation game in the Puerto Rico game where they were stomped by Akron to finish in sixth place.  That's a 1-2 overall record (additional loss to NC State and a win over Providence) and an altogether not very impressive tournament.  But what'd you expect from Penn State?  I mean really?

Until the next time.....

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #6-1

Well here we are kids.  The last six teams.  I'm kind of impressed with myself that I actually wrote up all 68 teams.  You're impressed too, right?  Yeah, you are.  I can tell.

Anyway, Jay Bilas published his top 68 teams as well, and as you'd guess we have some differences.  We both have the same top 2, but only Michigan also makes both our top 5s.  Eight of my top 10 are also in his top 10, but the two teams he has that high that I don't ranked as #s 17 and 22 for me.  There were 15 teams Bilas ranked that I didn't, with his best two that didn't make my cut being West Virginia (34) and Butler (44).  Of the 15 teams I had that Bilas didn't rank, the best were St. Mary's (34) and Valpo (36).   Some of the biggest difference in teams we have ranked are Drexel (me 29, him 66), BYU (me 30, him 50), Iowa State (me 63, him 39), Alabama (me 60, him 32), Pitt (me 56, him 23), Tennessee (me 45, him 22), and Michigan State (me 22, him 7). 

Wasn't that an interesting paragraph?  Whatever.  I hate you.  Just read these and be done with it already.

6.  UCLA Bruins.  This lofty ranking assumes things get figured out with super star freshman Shabazz Muhammad's eligibility, but even without him they'd have a shot at being a top 10 team.  They're loaded with talent all over the place, partially thanks to the #1 recruiting class this year according to ESPN including Tony Parker, the #7 rated center and #26 overall who should either push Josh Smith to be what he was touted to be or just straight up replace him.  Other than Muhammad's eligibility the biggest question facing UCLA this year is if a team with National Championship aspirations can really count on Larry Drew as their only real point guard.  You may remember Drew as the guy who quit in the middle of the season at UNC after Kendall Marshall won the starting PG job and whose mom went nuts on Tar Heel message boards.  The fact is that Drew was a terrible shooter and not much of a play-maker for being such a horrendous shooter (like the shooting of Ed Cota with the playmaking ability of Kris Humphries).  If he's improved (and Muhammad is eligible) these guys are absolutely a Final Four team.  Otherwise, they're probably just very good.  It's probably nice to have a "downside" to your season that would likely still be a top 4 seed in March.  Stupid power program jerks.

5.  Syracuse Orange. Scoop Jardine is gone, but that's ok because it's time for Michael Carter-Williams to become a star PG.  Fab Melo is gone, but that's ok because Rakeem Christmas might end up being better than than him anyway.  And Dion Waiters is gone but that's also ok because C.J. Fair is about to explode.  An excellent mix of returning talent (Brandon Triche is back as well for I think his 8th year) and newcomers (DaJuan Coleman is the 14th overall player and 6th best incoming center according to ESPN) should have the Orange back in Final Four contention.  There are questions, mainly because Carter-Williams is going from 10 minutes per game to running the show and he didn't exactly look great last season, but he should be game for the job considering he was a top 27 recruit last year and is an awesome 6-6 which is always awesome in a PG.  And if he's not the man, they have Triche who can slide in and take over.  Syracuse should contend for the Big East title, and it sucks that this will be the last time since they're going to the ACC.  That's just wrong.  Syracuse in the ACC?  That'd be like finding Super Sioux Fan in the library.

4.  Michigan Wolverines.  If Michigan's freshmen are as good as advertised this ranking is right.  Obviously they're loaded at guard with Trey Burke being one of the top point guards in the country and Tim Hardaway a scoring machine when he's on, but the front court is weak if you're only counting returning players (foul machine Jordan Morgan and coming back from a foot injury Jon Horford and that's it).  Both SF Glenn Robinson and PF Mitch McGary are top 30 guys according to ESPN, and if all goes according to plan both will end up starting.  Speaking of top recruits, in case you're wondering Michigan already has three top 100 guys (#s 24, 35, and 99) on board for season after this one and ESPN rates them as having the 7th best class in the country.  Indiana is #12.  Illinois #24 and Purdue #25.  Michigan State and Iowa (along with Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue) were in the top 25 for this about to begin season.  The last time the Gophers made the list was 2009 and two of the three guys who signed ended up transferring out.  I'm not exactly inspired here.

3.  NC State Wolfpack.  Talk about a quick turnaround.  Just two years ago NC State went 15-16 and won just 5 ACC games.  Then they fired Sid Lowe and hired Mark Gottfried, went to the Sweet 16, and are ranked 6th in both polls to start this season.  This season they have three new recruits coming in ranked in ESPN's Top 100 and already have two more on the line for 2013.  They're also among the final few teams still in the running for the #1 PF and #3 Center for next year.  As for this year's team it's basically the same team that made the Sweet 16 last year, but with three McDonald's All-Americans added to it, one of whom (Rodney Purvis) is either the best or second best freshman coming into the ACC this year.  They've also got two guys (Lorenzo Brown and C.J. Leslie) who could win ACC Player of the Year and could be first round draft picks next year.  Now THIS is what you hope happens when you hire a new coach with a good pedigree, even though Gottfried's pedigree prior to NC State wasn't nearly as impressive as Tubby Smith's before coming to Minnesota.  What?  I'm just sayin'. 

2.  Indiana Hoosiers.  When I first heard the Hoosiers were considered the favorite to win the National Title I was all like, "Dude, what?  Get out of here, nerd" but then you start reading about all the other teams out there and you realize yeah, it's pretty legit.  If you had to pick one player to build a team around Cody Zeller would likely be your top pick as a legitimately skilled and polished center who can play on both ends, and with Christian Watford next to him that's probably the best 1-2 forward punch in the Big 10 if not the country.  And holy cow on Victor Oladipo the dude went from a raw athlete to a polished offensive player in one off season.  Pretty much the only weakness you can find with Indiana is at point guard if you don't like Jordan Hulls - which I do not - but they remedied that by signing Yogi Ferrell, who ESPN ranks as the third best PG in the class.  Crazy how quickly Tom Crean turned this program back around, which is great because I've always said the Big Ten needs even more perennial powerhouse programs to make sure the Gophers don't ever rise too high.

1.  Louisville Cardinals.  I may be biased because I love Rick Pitino even more than that chick he did on the table does, but there are a lot of reasons to love this team this year.  First, you know they're going to have a dominating defense.  They have that monster (Gorgui Dieng) in the paint erasing shots all over the place and plenty of athletes to run Pitino's press and he's always had great defensive half-court teams.  The only real question is if they'll be able to score enough, especially with Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith are gone and those were the only two reliable outside shooters on the team.  I'm betting they can, which pretty much means I'm betting on Peyton Siva to finally "get it."  I actually have no idea why, because looking at his stats he's basically been a horrific shooter and turnover machine from day 1, and even after he supposedly "got it" at the end of last season his numbers didn't really change much.  Maybe you had to see it to believe it, but I'm buying in.  There's an incredible amount of talent assembled at Louisville this year and Siva is basically going to be the difference between another Final Four and possible Championship and a lackluster season.  Come on dude, don't make me look stupid.  I do that enough on my own (see:  my football predictions). 


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34 
Teams #33-26 
Teams #25-20 
Team #19 (GOPHERS) 
Teams #18-12 
Teams #11-7

Gophers Week 4 Preview vs. Syracuse Orangemen



Otto is down!


The Gophers are 3-0 now after a somewhat convincing win over Western Michigan.  Hey, they covered as TREstradamous predicted.  There's still plenty of room on the bandwagon though as we head into week 4.  This is due to a number of questions surrounding our heroes.  I'll answer those questions by making some stuff and take a look at Syracuse through the eyes of a Syracuse football message board.

The Cuse are 1-2 after blowing a week one lead at home against Northwestern in the first week, getting semi-drubbed by USC in week 2 and coming back in the second half against Stony Brook for a win in week 3. Behind the arm of 6'2" senior quarterback Ryan Nassib, the Orangemen are #3 in the nation in passing at 379 yards per game.  Nassib has 9 TDs against 3 interceptions.  He's thrown for over 300 yards in each game and threw for a whopping 482 yards against Northwestern.  Too bad they blew that game at the end.


Nassib is down!


Besides Nassib, other key players on offense include senior WR Marcus Sales, who has caught 25 of Nassib's 97 completions.  Junior RB Jerome Smith has 44 carries and a 4.0 ypc average.  Junior Prince-Tyson Gulley is kind of the scat back companion to Smith.  He's just 5'9", 180lbs, but has a 5.0 ypc and has 14 receptions and 3 total TDs. Gulley, who also returns kicks is the runner up for coolest name on the team behind frosh WR Quinta Funderburke.  Apologies to Siriki Diabate and Shamarko Thomas.  The offensive line is pretty solid; a senior RT and the starting LG and C are all back.  Last year's all Big East LT is out though with issues in his surgically repaired left shoulder. Syracuse is another team that runs one of these high-paced, no huddle-ish type of offenses.  Everybody's doing it!

Syracuse has a defense in theory, but they have given up nearly 34 points a game in their first 3 and one of those teams was Stony Brook.  That's good for 97th in the FBS.  Sophomore starting CB Brandon Reddish is feeling bluish and might miss the game on Saturday with the dreaded "lower body injury".  That leaves Keon Lyn and Ri'Shard Anderson who will be backed up by a couple of freshmen.  The aforementioned Shamarko Thomas is the starting strong safety and a good tackler.  Dyshawn Davis started at WLB as a freshman and has 17 total tackles this year.  Junior Marquis Spruill starts in the middle and is the team's leading tackler with 21 total tackles.  For the most part they run a 4-3 defense.  The D-line has experience, but is not loaded with playmakers.


Bring out the gimp.

So, we all know last week's story by now, except perhaps for DWG since he left at the half.  Queis goes down and the Auburn Bomber Max Shortell comes in and lights up the scoreboard Tecmo Bowl style to put the Gophers on top of Western Michigan.  All signs point to Max playing the entire game on Saturday with whispers of Marqueis being available in a pinch.  Freshman Philip Nelson is Shortell's backup, but the last thing the Gophers want to do is us him for a part of this game and burn his redshirt.  There are apparently plans in place if Shorty has to come out for a few plays.  Everyone suspects it would be former high school QB KJ Maye, but what if it's the hulking Moses Alipate?  Man, that would be great.  Maybe give him a can of Spam and watch him eat it like Popeye to give him the go-go juice.  Wait, is Moses even Hawaiian?

The Gophers defense allowed just 162 passing yards per game through 3 games, which puts them 5th in the nation.  They are one of just three undefeated teams remaining in the Big Ten.  Certainly, they haven't played the opponents that others have, but they're getting wins and clearly improving. They are set to play their second late game of the year in front of a packed house (dare I say it?) at TCF.  Their last night game was a scary affair out in the desert and this one could be just as frightening.  With the distractions that are going on this week due to injury and hype, I'm predicting the Gophers lose this one 34-31.  I hope to the baby jesus I'm wrong and Shortell throws 112 touchdowns and I pee my cargo shorts with joy, but there it is.

Silly Comments from a Syracuse Football Board

As a throwback to my old blog I went out and found some of my favorite comments from the football board at Syracusefan.com

"With there starting QB out ( 2nd leading rusher) and there starting Center out.. I like our chances in this game. There back up QB I read is more of a pocket passer and our defence is going to be licking there chops to get at him.. I see the game being a 2pk and would take 'Cuse on that.. " -OrangeFreek 

TRE says: Homophone fail.

"I'm not sure I'd call it [Gopher game] a must-win in the sense that I suppose you could lose it but still win the big east or win a bunch of BE games and the Mizzou game, etc." -billsin01

TRE says: billsin01 aka Capt. Optimism.  Win the Big East?  I know it's like winning the Sun Belt these days, but c'mon.

"Have you actually watched Minny? They are awful ... we stuck with a better USC squad this season without USC making a ton of mistakes ... if you watched the USC/Minny games you would know that USC did everything humanly possible to cough those games up ... they couldn't run the ball on Minny..."  -wfschrec

TRE says: This one just goes on and on about how bad the Gophers were IN PRIOR YEARS.  At the same time he says how good he thinks Syracuse is going to be this year when they have been soft, warm poo IN PRIOR YEARS. 

"I kinda wish we were playing Gray. He's like a lobotomized BJ Daniels." - BlackNight76

TRE says:  Ok, now that's just funny.  Gray>Daniels though.

***BREAKING UPDATE***

Screw it, after reading these Cuse boards I can feel the fear in their hearts and I am now changing my prediction to a Gopher victory.  Can you change prediction mid-blog?  I say yes.   Gophers 34, Orangeballs 31

 

Other News and Notes:

- If you don't know and love Ra'Shede Hageman, you haven't watched a minute of Gopher football this year.  Well, now he's active on twitter, so get ready to delve into the mind of a man that can throw opposing linemen through walls:  https://twitter.com/BIG_shede

The Tao of Shede says "If you want something so bad,It's not worth it. Go play football or somin."  Epic.

- Jerry Kill on who gets to wear #51 in honor of Gary Tinsley each week, "I leave that up to Keanon [Cooper], I leave that up to the linebackers."  Pretty neat.

- The Killers have a new album.  Yes, they're still terrible.  Avoid at all costs.

- I watched Revolution on DVR yesterday.  This is the new post-apocalyptic show on NBC.  Basically an EMP blows out all power, so peeps are riding horses and fighting with swords and bows and stuff.  They fast forward 15 years to a struggle between the militia and some kind of normal community.  The fast forward move is always key so you can do all kinds of flashbacks.  JJ Abrams is the executive producer and although I managed to avoid Lost, I think it was flashback central.  Anyway, the first episode was kind of predictable and there are some pretty wooden characters.  My hopes aren't high, but I'll watch a couple more episodes just in case a story develops. (hint to self: It won't)

- Darko signed a deal for the vet minimum to play a bench role with the Celtics.  I'll miss his willingness to slog around on the inside and block some shots.  I won't miss his lack of commitment to getting himself in shape and his stupid fouls.  It's all PEK everything now.

- Josh Willingham's 35th homer is the most by  Twin since 1970.  Yowser.  And to answer your question, yes they are still playing baseball.  Stay tuned for our MLB Playoffs preview blog!

My look at the Top 25 (part I - with bonus book review)

Ok I admit it - that Gopher loss to Iowa has completely drained me of my caringnessitude about this season.  I'll be back if they beat Wisconsin, but right now I don't see anything in this team that makes me believe they're going to snag an NCAA bid, and that's the whole point of the season.  That's why I took a nap on Sunday instead of watching them play Nebraska - I couldn't bear to watch another road implosion.  Luckily and happily for me, they ended up winning which is good.  Now it's time to play an extremely overrated Wisconsin team and if they can't win this one, that'll pretty much do it for the season.  I may write a preview and I may not, but you know what you're getting from the Badgers anyway.  Instead, I'm going to focus on the National Picture a bit, and give my thoughts on the Top 25.  I did this last year and it was a big hit with me and I don't really care about anyone else.  These are the rankings in the ESPN/USA today poll, not my personal rankings.

1. Kentucky Wildcats.  I think there are four teams this year that are head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of pure talent (Kentucky, Missouri, Baylor, and UNC) but Kentucky is head and shoulders above the other three who are head and shoulders above the rest and they're playing up to their talent this year.  Only loss is that 1-pointer at Indiana, and they've won 8 of their last 10 by at least double digits.  You're always at risk in the tournament with a young team and a coach who is 95% recruiter/5% game coach, but Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller have been there before and can give you some leadership where Calipari fails.  They also only go 6.5 deep even with all the blowouts so that's a concern (and I have no idea why Cal isn't giving more run to some other guys in these big wins to help hedge against possible foul trouble in a tournament game when you need someone to step in).  Plenty of worries here, but I'm going to have an awfully hard time picking anybody else as my national champion come bracket fill-out time. 

2.  Syracuse Orange.  I didn't list the Cuse as one of those top-4 talented teams this year but that's no slight to them because I think they do the best job of playing as an overall "team" (along with Mizzou).  Now that the Fab Melo situation has been figured out they've got a rare mix of players where they can dominate you in the paint, on the perimeter, or slashing to the hole and with their athlete's this year Boeheim's zone might be one of his best ever.  Opponent's do kill them on the offensive boards which can spell doom in a tight one, and I'm having trouble buying them completely because they lack any single win you can point to and say "holy shit Cuse is the goods", but they aren't 23-1 by accident.  Probably the one top team where I'm just not quite sure what to think.

3.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  Ohio State is a team I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now, as much as that's possible for a team ranked third in the country.  They beat Wisconsin this weekend in a slow-it-down, plodding game and just a couple of weeks ago beat Indiana in a more uptempo game.  Their ability to win without having to dictate the pace of the game is a huge positive, not to mention that in William Buford and Jared Sullinger they have what might be the best inside-outside scoring duo in the country right now.  They're a bit suspect from a big man stand point outside of Sullinger and, as usual, don't have much depth, but unless DeShaun Thomas shoots them right out of a game they have a great chance at another Final Four berth.

4.  Missouri Tigers.  One of the only teams I consider both supremely talented and supremely "team-y" for lack of a better term, Mizzou would be my clear pick to take the whole thing in March if it wasn't for damn Kentucky.  The Tigers have a reputation as a high-scoring, fast-paced team and they are high-scoring, but they score a ton of points not because they play so fast (105th in the country in tempo) but because they're so efficient (#1 in offensive efficiency).  Simply put, they make a lot of shots (#2 in the country in effective FG%) and they take a lot of shots because they rarely turn the ball over (#4 in the country) - thus they score a ton of points and force you to keep up.  They have the best back court in the nation and although they look a little weak on the front line since they only really have one true forward in Ricardo Ratliffe, their win going into Baylor and taking on maybe the best front court in college tells me everything I know - it's either going to be Missouri or Kentucky cutting down the nets at the end.

5.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Probably the second most talented team in the NCAA behind Kentucky, but they seem to missing every single intangible quality possible - nothing new for a Roy Williams led team.  There's no leadership, no hustle, no killer instinct, and no drive.  I know they only have three losses, but in two of those they were absolutely crushed (by UNLV and Florida State).  And really, outside of the season opening win against Michigan State on a boat do they have a really good win?  Wisconsin is overrated, Texas is terrible, and although Long Beach is a very good mid-major that's still all they are.  I can't really guarantee an early exit because there is so much talent here, but Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller are all quite types who are looking for someone to follow - one of them needs to become THE guy or we're looking at a non-sweet 16 team here.

6.  Baylor Bears.  I have a feeling this is going to be the trendy pick for the Final Four (say they're a two seed) to come out of whatever region they end up in and it's tough to argue with - their two losses have been to Missouri and Kansas and that's it.  One underrated aspect of Baylor is they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 74.2% (35th in the nation) and that's helped them win a lot of close ones (six wins over major conference foes of 5 pts or fewer) and could be a difference maker in March.  The big worry is although Pierre Jackson has helped them out with the ball-handling this year Baylor is still one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over, and as we know one bad game and you're done.

7.  Florida Gators.  I still think Florida is a Final Four contender because they have such a good back court, but neither Patric Young nor Erik Murphy has become a consistent inside force and that's what they'll need to make a run because despite being perimeter oriented they aren't very good defensively.  Erving Walker has settled down and become less chucker and more distributor and he's really allowed Boynton and Beal to flourish.  I would love to see a Florida/Missouri match-up - the over/under would be about 170.

8.  Murray State Racers.  Please.  They've played nobody, and I mean nobody.  Their strength of schedule is 251, and non-conference it's 119.  The only teams they've played that are "real" teams are Memphis (won by 4), Southern Miss (won in double OT), and Dayton (won by 17) and there's a good chance non of them make the NCAA Tournament, which would make Murray State 0-0 against NCAA Tournament teams.  It's a cute team and a cute story, but not only have they not played anyone they aren't even beating the bad teams all that convincingly.  They shoot over 40% from three so you can't completely write them off, but I have a pretty strong feeling they're a first game loss.

9.  Duke Blue Devils.  Same year same basic soft Duke team where all you really need is a strong inside dude who can push their finesse big guys around and some guards who can get said big man the ball as well as defend the three.  It's why they lost to Florida State and why they lost to Miami on Sunday.  Mike Kryzkyzkewski loves pansies - it's true.

SIDE BAR:  I just finished up reading this book - The Last Great Game by Gene Wojciechowski who, to the best of my knowledge, is not related to that little Duke wiener, and I rather enjoyed it despite half the book being about Duke.  That might have been the best part, because it basically proved that Christian Laettner really was an asshole, Bobby Hurley really was a whiner, and that Duke team was one of the least likeable teams in the history of history.   The Kentucky half of the book is even better, since I was young enough at that time I didn't really realize how crazy it was that UK was even in that position considering the massive sanctions they were under in the few years prior.  To get Pitino from the NBA, keep several of their recruits from fleeing despite the team being banned from the postseason, and for Pitino to get a recruit the caliber of Jamal Mashburn despite him knowing he couldn't play in the tournament is all just crazy.  And Wojo (this one, not the annoying little rat) either has really old notes or a lot of these guys have incredible memories, because he paints a very vivid and detailed picture.  Really, if you dig on college hoops books - as I do - I put this right up there with Feinstein's best work.

10.  Kansas Jayhawks.  The Jayhawks are interesting because even though I'm not necessarily impressed with them so far this year, they are the only team other than Kentucky who ranks in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy's both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.  Maybe I should be, but I always worry about team's that are so reliant on two players (Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor use a combined nearly 60% of KU's possessions).  I know that those two are worthy of that kind of reliance - both are probably top 10 National Player of the Year candidates right now - but a bad game from either of them probably dooms them. 

11.  Georgetown Hoyas.  Georgetown certainly wasn't supposed to be here after losing three starters from last year's team, but Henry Sims has really stepped up in his senior year (tripled his scoring and doubled or nearly doubled everything else) and they've gotten major contributions from some unheralded freshmen and have ridden their defense to a surprising 18-4 record.  And that's really all I got, because watching a Georgetown game makes me sleepy.

12.  Michigan State Spartans.  I could be wrong, but I think this might be one of Izzo's best teams.  Sure, they've lost a couple road games in the Big Ten but that's to be expected.  Don't forget after they lost to UNC and Duke to open the season they went on a 15-game winning streak which included wins over Florida State and Gonzaga, as well as Indiana and Wisconsin if you're impressed by that sort of thing.  The emergence in the second part of the season of Keith Appling has taken a lot of pressure off Draymond Green who is a lot better when he can concentrate on rebounding and facilitating the offense and let his points come naturally rather than having to carry the full offensive load.  Looking at this group and with Izzo's March history they could be a Final Four team with the right draw.

13.  St. Mary's Gaels.  I didn't even realize St. Mary's was all that good this year, but the whitey whitersons are 11-0 in the WCC (and don't forget, BYU is here now too) and are 6-2 against the RPI Top 100.  And Matthew Dellavedova doesn't just have one of the coolest names and sexiest hair in the NCAA, he's one of the best all-around guards as well.  I really need to catch one of their games this year before the tournament (maybe the Bracket Busters game against Murray State) so I can really evaluate them but it's clear they can light it up, and that always makes 'em dangerous.

14.  San Diego State Aztecs.  Even more surprising than G-Town being ranked highly is SDSU being up here because they lost almost everything from last year's team and it was looking like it'd be another case of a mid-major having everything come together and then crashing down after graduations/early defections, but Jamaal Franklin has gone from bit player to superstar, while Chase Tapley has gone from afterthought to star and SDSU is 6-1 in a tough Mountain West and already has wins over the other two major players in UNLV and New Mexico.  Next week is a monster because they play the Rebels Saturday and New Mexico the following Wednesday so if they handle that it may be time to start looking at them as a legit Final Four contender.

15.  Creighton Blue Jays.  These guys are really annoying because everyone is slobbering all over them, but what I see is a terrible defensive team playing in a way down Missouri Valley whose only significant non-conference win is over the aforementioned SDSU.  They're going to be somewhere in that 4-7 range for a seed and I have a feeling they're going to end up being a pretty trendy Sweet 16 pick (or more).  It could happen, because they do have a player of the year candidate who could carry them in Doug McDermott and they can really shoot the lights out, but if they end up going against a 13-10 seed who can score with them they could be a first round casualty - Iona or Oral Roberts would be a terrible matchup for them. 



So that's part 1.  I was going to do it all at once but then I got about 8 teams deep and I was all like oh god this is a lot of teams.  So I'm cutting her off at 15 for now.  I might do the next 10 (+ some notables who received votes) tomorrow night but I might go out to the bar instead.  Hell, I might be do both because I'm just crazy like that.

Also on the numbers me, Snacks, and Old Man split we had 8-7 for the Super Bowl so if Bradshaw doesn't score and the Giants instead kick a field goal two win 18-17 we would have won BOATLOADS divided by three.  But alas, I sit here.  Still poor.