Hoops Preview: Gophers vs. Richmond

Now we learn.  Home wins over Lehigh and Montana were nice, but expected even if the final margin were bigger than I had anticipated.  Going to Richmond, a team with NCAA bid aspirations, is going to tell us a lot about this Gopher team right now.  Not just because of the step up in class of the competition, but also the whole first road test thing.  Richmond does sit at 2-0, but neither win was particularly impressive (by 2 over Delaware, by 8 over Belmont) so although the Spiders are the best team the Gophers have seen this year, Minnesota can, and should, win this game.

Richmond only loses one starter from last season's CBI team, but looks significantly different anyway.  The starter they lost was Darien Brothers, their leading scorer, and their top post threat, Derrick Williams (not that Derrick Williams) has been battling injuries most of the season and has been able to play just 15 mostly ineffective minutes per game.  The bench is thin, and, like the other Gopher opponents' main strength lies in their guards.

It starts for the Spiders with Cedrick Lindsay, who's leading the Spiders in points (17.5 per), assists (3.5), and steals (3.0).  He's not much of a three point shooter but will take it when open, but Lindsay scores most of his points creating his own shot, usually a jumper.  Richmond runs a modified Princeton offense, which means a ton of back cuts and off the ball screens, but the guards have a lot of freedom to make something happen on their own and this is what Lindsay will do.  If the Gopher guards can stick on him and not give him high percentage looks it will be tough for Richmond to get anything going.

Also starting on the perimeter for the Spiders are junior shooting guard Wayne Sparrow and likely 6-5 wing Trey Davis.  Sparrow has really stepped up his three point shooting this year with an average of five attempts per game after averaging less than 2 the last two seasons, but unfortunately for Richmond he can't really shoot hitting just 10% this year and 29% last season.  He does rebound well for his position, and overall Richmond is a pretty solid rebounding team.  Davis is good in that regard as well, leading the team with 10 per game.  He's not much of an offensive weapon but if the Gophers forget about him he could kill them on the boards.

Up front with Williams hobbling the job of big guys has fallen to 6-8 sophomore Terry Allen (no not that Terry Allen) who has responded in a big way, averaging 14 & 8 after putting up just 4 & 4 a year ago.  He's quickly developed into one of their go to guys on offense.  Next to him is Alonzo Nelson-Ododa who gives the Spiders a defensive presence.  At 6-9 he's versatile enough to lead the team in blocks with 2.0 per game (and led the team last season at 1.8) and also chips in with 1.5 steals per game.  Like Davis he's not a focal point of their offense, but can get going on the boards and does have the ability to score when necessary.

Speaking of ability to score, Richmond has a major weapon coming in off the bench in 5-8 Kendall Anthony, who is pure instant offense as a sixth man, averaging 11.5 per game this year after putting up 11.5 last season in the same role.  He's very much a chucker who never saw a shot he didn't like, but unlike most players in that mold he also takes very good care of the basketball and rarely turns it over.  He's struggled with his shot a bit this year, but if he gets going he can score a ton of points in a hurray.  He's also Richmond's only really reliable three-point shooter, so it's imperative the Gophers don't let him get going.

The way I see this game happening the biggest key is going to be the Gophers' half court defense.  Richmond doesn't turn the ball over much, so even though the press may create more turnovers than usual odds are that the Spiders will have plenty of opportunities to run their offense.  If Minnesota is able to not get lost on the plethora of back cuts they'll see and can keep the guards out of the lane it'll push Richmond outside and they'll end up shooting a lot of long 2s and three-pointers.  Given that they're not a particularly good shooting team, this is good for the Gophers.  They're also not a good rebounding team, so the Gophers should be able to control the boards.

The alternative is they get shredded by the Princeton offense (wouldn't be the first team that's happened to) and Richmond gets a ton of easy baskets.  The Gophers' offense is good enough against a so-so Princeton defense to still make it a game or even win if this happens, but it's going to be a lot easier and more fun if they can shut down the Spiders.  I'm betting it happens.

Minnesota 71, Richmond 62.

Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed

The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday.  And here it is.  Rankings are from last year.

11/8 vs. LEHIGH  (RPI 107, kenpom 96):  A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late.  The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school.  Nerds and wrestling I think.  Definitely not basketball. 

11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year!  Let's rock and roll!  Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season.  Yes, that is correct.  I'm serious.  No you shut up.

11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83):  The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule.  Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational.  Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment.  Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer. 

11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226):  Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either.  On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza).  I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond.  He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.

11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256):  Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team.  Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.

11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14,  in Maui, kenpom 8):  The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year.  Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije.  He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke.  He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school.  He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times.  As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."

11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui:  Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something.  This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one.  Hope for Cal.

11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I):  Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67).  Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents.  Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result.  Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton.  Not bad, but not great.  Like a night with your mom.

12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124):  Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn.  Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse.  Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace.  Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all.  Don't tell Gardy. 

12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346):  Now things get really, really ugly.  You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up.  They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own).  Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation.  I got news for you though.  Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door. 

12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103):  I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what?  With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again.  Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters?  Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair.  I don't know what he's waiting for.  There is good news, however.  According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year.  So shut it already.

12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321):  I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign.  They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back.  The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha.  Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM.  The college World Series is still in Omaha.  I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln).  I'm just writing random facts now.  I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself.  Here is what I wrote that night.  Gripping.

12/28 vs.  TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309):  Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing?  Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right?  Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins.  I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.


The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300.  The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100.  A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games.  It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."

NCAA Basketball Preview - The Atlantic 10

Here's what you're going to want to do - watch "New Girl" from Fox.  It debuted on Tuesday night and I think me and the missus laughed more than we've ever laughed at the first episode of anything, and that includes Parks and Rec.  It stars one of my big crushes, Zooey Deschanel, and although she's always been quirky funny she really, truly can carry a show as the funny lead and she knocks it out of the park here.  Then there's three dumb guys who she moves in with who I've never heard of but actually do an adequate job.

So watch it.  It's on every Tuesday at 8pm, and they're replaying the pilot on Saturday October 1st so do it.  If you've ever trusted my judgement about anything, watch this show.  But also know that I have dibs on Zooey.  I've been into her since her Almost Famous and The Good Girl, so back off.  I have dibs on her sister too.

I have a lot of dibs.  Anyways, here comes the A-10!!!!!

1.  XAVIER MUSKETEERS.  Tu Holloway (who sounded cooler when he was going by Terrell) is back after nearly jumping to the NBA so that pretty much automatically makes Xavier the favorite because he's so retardedly good, but he's got plenty of help.  Mark Lyons joins him in the backcourt and nearly doubled his scoring average last year all the way up to 13.6, and Kenny Frease is back to man the middle.  All of which means X has their top three scorers back.   They're also adding three top 140 recruits including Dezmine Wells, a SF who ranked #76 on Rivals list and is all but guaranteed to be the next Musketeer superstar.  They also imported Travis Taylor who is not a crappy receiver from Florida but is in fact a power forward who transferred from Monmouth where he lit it up for nearly 18 points per game.  I'm comfortable at this point saying Xavier doesn't rebuild, they just reload.

2.  TEMPLE OWLS.  If the back court is what really makes good teams good then Temple is off to a good start despite losing power forward Lavoy Allen who averaged 12 and 9 last year.  Back is SG Ramone Moore, last year's leading scorer at over 15 per game, as well as Juan Fernandez.  You remember Fernandez as the hipster pot head looking guy who killed Talor Battle with his off-balance miracle shot in the NCAA Tournament.  He's super annoying to look at, really irritating to watch, and really his numbers aren't even that great and he can't really shoot, but somehow he has that annoying knack for making the plays when they're needed. 

3.  ST LOUIS BILLIKENS.  I suppose it didn't make sense to think Rick Majerus would turn St. Louis around super fastly but I did because I love that fat-ass.  But after a good year two seasons ago (11-5 A-10) they regressed hard last year, finishing at 6-10 last year, not in small part because their two best players - Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell - missed all of last season because of sexual assault charges.  Both were cleared - Reed bolted for the NBA (undrafted, nice job genius), but getting Mitchell back is huge for a Billiken team that returns all five starters and their 8 top scorers from last season.  If this isn't the year St. Louis makes the NCAA Tournament it's probably time to just end the program all together.  Maybe all the other A-10 coaches could have fun little luau where they roast Majerus for food and invite A.C. Slater and it would be fun for all.  Except Majerus.

4.  GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS.  GW went an impressive 10-6 in the A-10 last season.  Unfortunately that didn't remotely get them in the conversation for an NCAA bid because they didn't even come close to playing anybody in the non-conference slate and didn't beat any of the league's good teams during conference play.  Still it's a good jumping off point for this season, and with only one starter gone from last year's team and getting back Lasan Kromah, who was second on the team in scoring two years ago as a freshman before missing last year with a foot injury, GW might be in contention to reach the NCAA Tournament.  Tony Taylor is a player of the year candidate, and with a tougher schedule that includes games against Cal, Syracuse, and VCU, they have a shot.

5.  CHARLOTTE 49ERS.  The 49ers return four starters from last year's squad, but I'm not sure that's a good thing.  Last year they couldn't shoot, turned the ball over like crazy, never registered assists, and couldn't play defense.  All that led to a 10-20 record with just 2 conference wins.  There is, however, reason to have some hope because three of those 10 wins came over Xavier, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech, so when things do come together for Charlotte they can play well, it just didn't happen with any regularity last year.  Of those returners, three scored in double figures last year, including their top two assist and steal guys.  If they can shoot a little better, take care of the ball a little better, and play better defense they could be dangerous.  Yes, that's a lot of ifs and I don't know why I believe they'll be better.  Maybe I just like green uniforms.

6.  ST JOE'S HAWKS.   I've seen St. Joe's referenced as a potential A-10 sleeper, but I'm not sure I really see it.  Yes, they only lost one starter and not a very good one at that, but this is also a team that was beaten by the Gophers at home last year so how good can they be?  Still, they have a couple of good guards including Carl Jones who is the third leading returning scorer in the conference with 17 per game, along with sophomore center C.J. Aiken who was ranked the #8 incoming freshman center in the country last season.  Although Aiken is a bit of a project on offense he's already a killer on defense and averaged 3.5 blocks per game last season which led the conference and was second nationally.  So I guess they do have some talent.  But still, the Gophers.

7.  DAYTON FLYERS.  I've spent plenty of time in other A-10 previews talking about how Dayton has terrible fans so I won't rehash that here, especially since this year is going to be a toughie for the Flyers.  Not only did they lose their coach, but they also lost leading scorer Chris Wright to graduation and freshman point guard Juwan Staten, who led the A-10 in assists, decided to transfer after realizing how much Dayton sucked.  They still have Chris Johnson, a guy I really like who is an all-around kind of guy and superior athlete, and PG Kevin Dillard, a transfer from So Ill, led the MVC in assists his sophomore year so he's not a monster step down from Staten, but the talent level has definitely waned in Dayton.  Gregory got out at the right time.

8.  ST BONAVENTURE BONNIES.  What St. Bonnie's has going for them is maybe the best player in the conference in Andrew Nicholson.  What they don't have going for them is everything else.  Nicholson is now a senior, and has gone from a 2-star center from Canada whose only D-I Scholarship offer came from St. Bonnie's to a guy who led the conference in scoring at 22 per game last year.  All he needs is a little help and there's a couple of other returners who averaged in double-figures, but let's be honest St. Bonnie's has never been on tv so who am I kidding trying to write about them?

9.  UMASS MINUTEMEN.  They lose their best player and top scorer in Anthony Gurley, but return everybody else.  The problem is that nobody besides Gurley averaged more than 8.5 points per game, so what you're left with is nine different players who averaged between 4.3 and 8.5 points per game last year, and I have no idea how that's going to shake itself out.  If multiple players step up their game and become double digit scorers and all-conference types they could finish significantly higher than this.  On the other hand, if nobody takes a leap and improves from last season they could be bottom dwellers.  Obviously, I think neither of those things will happen and they'll just float here at #9.  Go me!

10.  DUQUESNE DUKES.  The Dukes chance to shine was last year, but they came up a bit short.  After starting the conference season 8-0, Duquesne limped to the finish at 2-6 and then were dropped in the first round of the A-10 tourney by crappy St. Joe's and ended up in the CBI since their non-conference resume was basically non-existent.  Now both Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, two of the best players in Duquesne history, are gone and although there's still some talent here they certainly aren't in the same class they were in (or could have been in) last year.  They return three pretty good guards, including A-10 rookie of the year T.J. McConnell, and since they play an extreme uptempo style that's a good start and they should end up ok, but they definitely whiffed on a big opportunity last season. 

11.  RICHMOND SPIDERS.  After reaching the sweet 16 last year and setting a school record for victories, the Spiders have been massacred by graduations, losing four starters who accounted for nearly 70% of the team's scoring last year and over half of their rebounds and assists, including Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper who were both All A-10 first team selections last year.  So yeah, they have a lot of uncertainty going on.  Richmond has begun to establish itself as one of the elite basketball schools in the conference, but it's going to take some big years from unexpected places to keep them there.

12.  FORDHAM RAMS.  The sad thing about Fordham, other than the fact that their win totals have been three, two, and seven the past three years (and those are total wins, not conference wins), is that they actually have one of the best players in the conference in power forward Chris Gaston, who was the only A-10 player to average a double-double at 15.9 points and 11.3 rebounds (4th in the nation).  The problem is he has zero help, so defenses really do nothing other than throw double and triple teams at him and it works because they are terrible at everything, and there's really no reason to think they're going to be much better.  They lose their second leading scorer, but return two other double digit scorers in Branden Frazier (from Dudley Do-Right) and Alberto Estwick.  If either of those guys can take some pressure of Gaston, maybe they could get to a CIT bid.  Aim high.

13.  RHODE ISLAND RAMS.  Remember Jimmy Baron?  The coaches son who played for the Rams a couple of years ago and rained down 8 three-pointers in Cameron and almost single-handedly beat Duke?  He's been gone now for a couple of years, but little brother Billy just transferred in from Virginia and he profiles as a similar player.  Which is good, because most of the excitement left Rhodey after last year with three of their top four scorers, including second team A-10 selection Delroy James.  Joining Baron will be a couple returnees who are also excellent outside shooters and any time a team has a couple of outside threats they can also manage an upset or two, but that's about all the Rams will be good for this year.  

14.  LASALLE EXPLORERS.  When Aaric Murray,  who was ranked as the #35 overall recruit and #5 center in the country coming into school in 2009, it was a huge, huge deal.  Here was a hometown kid from just outside Philly who was going to return the Explorers to the glory days of Lionel Simmons.  Well.  Insert fart sound.  LaSalle went 4-12 and 6-10 in A-10 games the last two years, and although Murray put up good numbers he was also benched for poor effort last season and has now transferred to West Virgina with nary a post-season berth on the record.  With two other double-digit scorers lost to graduation LaSalle finds itself in a position similar to the Minnesota Twins - no hope and no prospects, and one of the worst teams in the country.

Other Previews:
Big 12
ACC

Friday's Gambling

This is a much harder slate of games to breakdown than the ones I looked at yesterday.  But because I love you, dear reader, I will continue to march ahead.  I'm like Sojourner Truth and shit.

North Carolina -4.5 vs. Marquette:  I absolutely, abso-smurfly cannot get a good read on this game.  The points almost seem perfect here.  And what do we really have in Marquette?  Do we even know?  They semi-limped into the tournament, but then beat Xavier and Syracuse - two pretty good teams.  I can only come back to what I know, and that's how Marquette is mainly a perimeter oriented team who beat two other perimeter oriented teams.  That's a mark against them since Carolina is very solid in the paint with Henson and Zeller.  Also going against Marquette is that the Heels are one of the hottest teams in college right now, and there last, and maybe most impressive win came over Washington, another perimeter oriented team.    Since I've locked myself in wagering on every game I'll throw one unit on UNC here, but overall I'd rather just stay away.  That includes that over/under 149.5.  It's just too high, but not so high that I'd bet on it.  Overall I hate this game.

Ohio State -6 vs. Kentucky:  Conversely to the one above, this is the game I'm most confident in for a myriad of reasons, and that's not even counting the fact that the Buckeyes have been runnin' and jumpin' all over people's heads so far in this tournament.

Reason #1 would be the coaching.  Recruiting-wise, Thad Matta vs. John Calipari may be a battle of 1a and 1b with no correct answer, but gameplanning wise and in-game adjustment wise Matta blows him out of the water.  I talked a bit in yesterday's post how I got too cute with my bracket picks and backed poor game coaches even though I know better and they all came back to bite me in the ass.  I'm not making that mistake again.

Reason #2 would be how this Kentucky team, and Calipari's teams in general, succeed best when they can use their elite athleticism against teams that can't compete in that area.  I was actually expecting to be picking Kentucky to go out early this year, but seeing their matchups were against Princeton and West Virginia picking them to the Sweet 16 is one of the few things I got right.  But now going against the Buckeyes they won't be seeing any slow white dudes or whatever Joel Mazzulla is, this Ohio State team might be the most athletic team they've faced this year.  Terrence Jones will still have an edge on Jared Sullinger - and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him get the better of that match-up - but the Buckeyes or even or better everywhere else.

Reason #3 would be how Ohio State has been runnin' and jumpin' all over people's heads this whole tournament.  Take how they're playing, the points I made above, and a little reminder that Ohio State is an elite (top 10 def. efficiency) defensive team (Reason #4) and this could be a blood bath.  Oh yeah, Kentucky's faced two other top 10 defensive squads, that they've given the Wildcats two of their eight losses this year (Reason #5).  I'll be going with Ohio State big for six units, and I'm throwing a unit on the over 140, just because Ohio State might very well get to 140 by themselves.

Kansas -10.5 vs. Richmond:   At first glance this one is tough and my first impression is that isn't 10.5 points an awful lot for a sweet 16 game?  I mean like, a ton when two teams that are obviously playing well are involved?  I know Richmond's second win was over a 13 seed but Morehead was still the same team that beat Louisville and the Spiders beat them in impressive fashion.  The Spiders have played one team comparable to Kansas this year, Purdue, and beat them on a neutral floor - that bodes very well for Richmond.  They are also a good shooting team, and if Kansas has one weakness - and they don't - it's defending the jump shot.  Richmond is also solid at defending the shot, so they may be able to slow Kansas's incredible offensive efficiency and keep this one close.  Nebraska actually has a similar profile to Richmond in terms of field goal defense and tempo, and they were able to keep the game within 3 and hold them under 65 points in one of their meetings - and Richmond is much better in all facets than Nebraska.  That all adds up to enough for me to go with Richmond and the points for two units.  I'm not touching the over/under because just as likely as the Jayhawks getting held down is them dropping a hunny all by themselves.

Florida State -3.5 vs. VCU:  Ernest Hemingway wrote "Do not ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee" and I'm pretty sure he was talking about Virginia Commonwealth because this ride is about to come to a screeching halt.  Actually your opinion on this game basically comes down to one question, "Do you believe in a team's whole body of work or do you think a team can completely flip the script for a few short weeks?"

VCU was always a good team, but they basically were a poor shooting team who was reliant on long-twos and three-pointers but was always able to score enough points because they took great care of the basketball.  The taking care of the basketball part is still true, but suddenly the past two games they've greatly increased their ability to put the ball in the hole.  Now they come up against Florida State, an absolutely rock-solid defensive basketball team who may actually be the best statistical defense we've seen in years, and whose #1 above all defensive strength is forcing their opponents to take, and miss, difficult twos and threes.

I know you're wondering how they were able to shred Purdue and besides the obvious (missing Kelsey Barlow) they other key here is that although Purdue ranks as a very good defensive team, they don't do anything defensively off the charts well - they're just very good at every part of defense.  FSU, on the other hand, is simply off the charts good at making you miss shots.  They aren't great at causing turnovers, they don't limit opponent offensive rebounds particularly well, and they don't really keep their opponents off the free throw line - but they are absolutely positively great at making opponents take bad shots and miss. 

Overall Purdue might be the better defensive team, but this match-up is absolutely perfect for Florida State, and a complete buzzsaw for the newest little engine that could.  And then couldn't.  Going with Florida State here for 4 units.  I'm also tossing a unit on the under 132 because I think there's a chance FSU keeps VCU in the fifties and they're offensively challenged enough where they couldn't possibly get to 70, but I'm limiting it to a unit because VCU seems like that annoying kind of team that will keep fouling even when they're down double-digits with 20 seconds left.  Also known as under-killers. 

Good luck to all.  Good or bad, I'll be back to break down some weekend action.  Unless I get too drunk at our fantasy baseball draft. 

NCAA Basketball: Thanksgiving Tournament Wrap

A hell of a lot of good basketball just wrapped up with the pre-Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving tournaments the last two weeks, so much so that it would be easy to miss some of the important stuff, especially with all the drinking and eating and football watching and generally being a complete moron doing really stupid stuff going on.  So I'm here to help.  Tournament by tournament, here's what you need to know:

PUERTO RICO TIP OFF
Championship:  Minnesota Gophers over West Virginia Mountaineers
Biggest positive:  Minnesota.  I wasn't really sure where they'd fall in the Big Ten pecking order.  Somewhere in the middle, likely, but towards the top of that middle or towards the bottom?  Well, wins over three potential tournament teams help answer that and push the Gophers towards the top of the conference.
Biggest negative:  North Carolina Tar Heels.  A year after the worst season for UNC in recent memory, the Tar Heels started this year with a lot of positivity and a lofty #8 ranking the country, but losses to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt show that this team isn't quite there yet.  A loss to one or the other could be shrugged off, since both are possible NCAA Tournament teams, but losses to both sends up a bit of a red flag.
Also of note:  Davidson 64, Western Kentucky 51.  This game, as well as WKU's narrow 2-point win over Hofstra, say that the Hilltoppers aren't going to be making the NCAA Tournament as at at-large.

NIT SEASON TIP OFF
Championship:  Tennessee Volunteers over Villanova Wildcats
Biggest positive:  Tennessee.  All their losses from last season had me convinced they were badly overrated and would be in the NIT at best this year, and then all the Bruce Pearl nonsense solidified that thought for me.  Turns out their better than I gave them credit for, and the combination of super freshman Tobias Harris on the inside and dynamic scorers Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson on the wings is looking like enough to drive the Vols to success.
Biggest negative:  Wake Forest Demon Deacons.  "Wait, I didn't see them in New York" is what you might be saying, and you're right, but that's because they got bounced out of the qualifying round - the "gimme" round held on their home floor.  Of course they also drew Virginia Commonwealth who was probably the favorite to come out of that region, but it just confirms that this is going to be a dark, dark year in Winston-Salem.  If this loss to VCU (by 21, if I didn't mention it) doesn't cement it, the earlier loss to Stetson and subsequent loss to Winthrop (both also at home) are pretty big clues.  But the biggest clue?  Iowa was favored over them in their ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup tonight, and the game was at Wake.
Also of note:  VCU 89, UCLA 85.  Not content with just getting to New York, VCU then went ahead and beat UCLA to nab a third-place finish.  That's going to go a long way in getting the Colonial multiple bids this year.

COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC
Championship:  Pitt Panthers over Texas Longhorns
Biggest positive:  Texas.  Last year the Longhorns had all the talent in the world, were ranked #1 at one point, and then death spiraled down and didn't even receive an NCAA bid.  This year saw a lot of turnover, and I'm not sure anybody really knew what to expect, as usual with a Rick Barnes team.  Beating Illinois and then hanging right with Pitt before losing by two shows they have some talent, it's just a matter of if they put it all together.  
Biggest negative:  Cory Joseph.  In the two games in New York, Joseph shot just 3-13, including 0-4 from three, with 5 assists and 3 turnovers, and threw up a ridiculous shot at the end of the final with the Longhorns down two when he thought he had been fouled in an attempt to get to free throw line.  The ref disagreed, and he threw away Texas's chance to win. 
Also of note:  Maryland Terrapins.  They went 0-2 in New York, but they weren't expected to win either game.  Losing to Pitt by nine and to Illinois by four bodes well for the Terps' chances in ACC play.


MAUI INVITATIONAL
Championship:  Connecticut Huskies over Kentucky Wildcats
Biggest positive:  Kemba Walker.  Coming into this tournament nobody was really sure what to make of UCONN.  Sure, they'd be a middle of the road Big East team most likely, but where would that really put them in the overall pecking order?  Well, Walker carried them on his back to the title here with games of 31, 30, and 29 points, and made sure everybody knew that he was good enough, and had enough talent around him, to make the Huskies a threat.
Biggest negative:  Oklahoma Sooners.  Eesh.  The Sooners looked decent in their opener, hanging with Kentucky, but completely fell apart from there.  First, they lost by 18 to a terrible Virginia squad who just go rolled by Washington by 40+, then they lost to Chaminade, the little host school who had won just five times in the 26 years prior of the tournament's existence.  Not only did they go down, but they went down bickering amongst themselves.  This is going to be a long year in Norman. 
Also of note: Wichita State goes 2-1, but leaves disappointed after blowing their opening round game against UCONN, a game they led by four with just four minutes to go.  It would end up being the only resume-building opportunity the Shockers would get, matching up against Virginia and Chaminade in their final two.  That could hurt come Selection Sunday.


CBE CLASSIC
Championship:  Duke Blue Devils over Kansas State Wildcats
Biggest positive:  Duke.  I have no idea how anybody is going to beat this team.  Marquette tried to go small to match Duke's quickness and whichever Plumlee it was destroyed them inside, then K-State tried to run with them and Duke ran 'em out of the gym.  They are good inside (Plumlees), have great guards (Nolan Smith, the unguardable Kyrie Irving), and have dead-eye shooters who you can't leave to go help (Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry).  And that's all without bothering to mention the ACC pre-season player of the year in Kyle Singler.  Look out, because they have a chance to go undefeated.  No, I'm not crazy. 
Biggest negative:  Duke.  The exact paragraph I just wrote is actually more of a negative because I, and everybody with a soul, hates Duke.
Also of note:  Gonzaga 66, Marquette 63.  Marquette lost both games in Kansas City, first to Duke by five and then this one to the Zags by 3.  Though those are both big missed opportunities, they also signal that for the second straight year a down year in Marquette might not be as down as we think.


OLD SPICE CLASSIC
Championship:  Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Wisconsin Badgers
Biggest positive:  Notre Dame.  The Irish picked up two wins over NCAA caliber teams, beating both the Badgers for the title and Georgia in the opening round.  It's very likely Temple and Texas A&M were the only other teams to even pick up one in Orlando.
Biggest negative:  Temple.  As noted, the Owls did pick up a win over Georgia that looks good, but losses to both Cal and Texas A&M are huge negatives.  A&M might be a bubble team, so that one will hurt, and Cal is likely to be a bottom of the barrel Pac-10 team while the Pac-10 is likely to be a bottom of the barrel conference.  The Owls were supposed to be the class of the A-10, but they sure didn't play like it.
Also of note: Notre Dame 58, Wisconsin 51.  The Badgers came into Orlando with a chance to pick up some nice victories, but Boston College's win over Texas A&M took that game off the board, and Wisconsin blew their chance against the Irish.  They come without a high profile win to show-off in March.


CHARLESTON CLASSIC
Championship:  Georgetown Hoyas over North Carolina State Wolfpack
Biggest positive:  Georgetown.  This wasn't exactly a murderer's row of teams, but beating Big South favorite Coastal Carolina by 19, SoCon favorite Wofford by 15, and a very good NC State team by 15 is a pretty nice weekend.  The Hoyas will be good, and in an odd-twist, guard dominated - their three top scorers are all guards.   
Biggest negative:  George Mason Patriots.  There's been a lot of early season success out of the Colonial Conference so far this year (VCU, Old Dominion), but George Mason whiffed on their chance to join in by losing to Wofford in the third-place game.  It's not an awful loss, but when you're a mid-major you need to win every one of these types of games to have a shot at a bid.
Also of note:  Wofford 82, George Mason 79.  I already mentioned this above as a negative for GMU, but it's a definite positive for the Terriers.  They have a brutal early schedule, but unfortunately missed out on a chance for an even bigger win by losing to Xavier in triple-overtime last week.  The 2-5 record also includes a loss to lowly Air Force, so an ambitious schedule goes for naught and Wofford will need to win their way in if they want to play in the NCAAs.


PARADISE JAM
Championship:  Old Dominion Monarchs over Xavier Musketeers
Biggest positive:  ODU.  This is what you need to do if you're a mid-major hoping to be in at-large consideration come March.  The Monarchs won the Paradise Jam Championship, beating St. Peter's (doesn't matter), Clemson (possible tournament team), and Xavier (very likely tournament team).  That is two huge wins, and assuming they don't falter in a strong Colonial ODU is in great shape.  
Biggest negative:  Alabama Crimson Tide.  From NCAA possibilities to the bottom of the league, the Tide embarrassed themselves, losing to Seton Hall (acceptable), Iowa (not acceptable), and St. Peter's (abominable).  Remember in Monson's last year or almost last year when the Gophers went to the Old Spice Classic and went 0-3, including a loss to Montana?  This is like that.
Also of note:  Clemson 64, Seton Hall 58.  Two teams that will likely find themselves in similar spots come year's end, this third place game could mean the difference between NCAA and NIT. 


SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL
Championship:  BYU Cougars over St. Mary's Gaels
Biggest positive:  BYU.  It's questionable how much the two wins BYU picked up will really help them because I'm not sure South Florida or St. Mary's are tournament teams, but the way in which the Cougars won could be valuable in March.  The win over South Florida went to double OT before BYU hit a game-winner, and then the win over the Gaels was a one point victory on a 3-pointer by the Jimmer with 10 seconds left.  That kind of late game experience could pay-off big.  
Biggest negative:  Texas Tech.  The obvious choice as a downer since they were the team that went 0-2, it's sad for Tech because they have an experienced team with postseason aspirations, but getting blown out by St. Mary's and then blowing the lead against USF late says they suck.
Also of note:  Liberty 67, Chicago State 65.  This tournament has two brackets, a good one and a crappy one, and Liberty won the crappy one.  I can't think of a single reason why that's remotely noteworthy.


76 CLASSIC
Championship:  UNLV Runnin' Rebels over Virginia Tech Hokies
Biggest positive: UNLV.  Wins over both Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State give the Rebels two quality victories.  Since the Mountain West is likely to be very solid again with four very good teams, even if they beat up on each other the Rebels are in good position to nab an NCAA bid once again.
Biggest negative:  Murray State Racers.  Murray State has been tabbed as this year's Butler - not a bad call considering there stellar play in March last year and that they have essentially that whole team back - but they missed out on a big opportunity here.  After beating Stanford in round 1 they lost to both UNLV and Oklahoma State in the next two rounds, and neither game was close.  With their earlier loss to Ole Miss and nothing really left on the schedule outside of the Ohio Valley conference games their hopes at an at-large disappeared this weekend.
Also of note: Virginia Tech 56, Oklahoma State 51.  The Hokies have missed the tournament the past two years due to weak non-conference scheduling and a lack of quality out-of-conference wins.  This at least gives them one good victory - more than they had either of the last two years.

CHICAGO INVITATIONAL CHALLENGE
Championship:  Richmond Spiders over Purdue Boilermakers
Biggest positive:  Richmond.  The Spiders were supposed to be at the top of the Atlantic-10 this year and were considered a very likely NCAA Tournament team.  An early loss to Iona, however, had experts like me questioning if this was just another in a long line of A-10 "sleepers" who were actually not very good.  This win over Purdue helps put some of that unease to rest.  
Biggest negative:  Purdue.  No surprise here, this was set-up as basically a coronation for Purdue, but Richmond spoiled that, and that's not good for the Boilers.
Also of note:  Wright State 82, Oakland 79.  Oakland (which is in Michigan) is supposed to be a mid-major sleeper due to the presence of seven-footer Keith Benson, but if you can't even beat Wright State...I mean, come on.

LEGENDS CLASSIC
Championship:  Syracuse Orange over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Biggest positive:  Georgia Tech.  They aren't going to make the NCAA tournament or anything, but the Yellow Jackets needed some positives after losing to lowly Kennesaw State early this year and looking like they might be nothing more than a big joke this season.  Blowing out Albany and Niagara in the early rounds, beating UTEP in the semis, and then losing to the Cuse by just four in the final is a step in the right direction.
Biggest negative:  Michigan Wolverines.  Michigan started the year playing well, beating up on the cupcakes and then even hung tough with Syracuse in the semis, leading for most of the game before losing by just four.  Unfortunately, instead of still salvaging something they ended up losing to UTEP in the third place game instead.
Also of note:  Detroit Titans.  There was a second, consolation regional held in Michigan, and Detroit won it by beating Albany, Bowling Green, and Niagara in consecutive days.  Even if it's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents it's still a nice little run and was highlighted by former Indiana Hoosier Eli Holman who put up a double-double in each game.  Detroit is a nice little sleeper in the Horizon.

LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL
Championship:  Kansas Jayhawks over Arizona Wildcats
Biggest positive:  Kansas.  The Jayhawks stomped MAC favorite Ohio, easily handled a very good Arizona team, now rank sixth in the polls and first according to Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free stats (www.kenpom.com).  And they've done all this without the services of their top recruit Josh Selby.  When he finally starts playing this team is an instant title contender.  Of course, some times a high profile freshman disrupts chemistry to a point where the team gets worse, so let's hope for a little Kris Humphries/Stephon Marbury from Selby.
Biggest negative:  Nobody, really.  Everybody finished where they should, the good teams stomped the bad, and nobody's play stood out as exceptionally poor.  If you had to pick one negative, go with Ohio.  Last year's upset winner over Georgetown in the first round of the tournament was picked to win their conference again, and losing by 57 to Kansas is certainly not what they had in mind. 
Also of note:  Solomon Hill.  Arizona has one of the best player's in the country in Derrick Williams, but he can't do it himself.  If Hill can play like he did against Santa Clara (20 pts) rather than how he did against Kansas (9 pts) more often, Arizona will have a much better chance of getting back to the NCAA Tournament.

GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT
Championship:  St. Johns Red Storm over Arizona State Sun Devils
Biggest positive:  St. Johns, my Big East sleeper pick, started the season questionably enough, losing to St. Mary's, but handled themselves nicely in Alaska by going 3-0.  With no other possible NCAA Tournament teams in this field, the Red Storm basically had to win this tournament.  And they did. 
Biggest negative:  Ball State.  Not that Ball State is supposed to be anything (it's been a long time since Theron Smith), but it's never good to lose to non-Division I squad, and the Cardinals were dropped by the host Alaska-Anchorage, and in embarrassing fashion, 62-44.
Also of note:  Weber State 82, Drake 81.  Weber State won't be an at-large NCAA team, but they are considered the favorites to come out of the Big Sky, and taking third place in Alaska is a solid outing for this team.  Plus Mrs. W went to Weber State for a year and I visit Ogden almost yearly, so it's always nice to give them a little pub.


And that should pretty well cover it.  There were a few others, but really nobody cares who wins the Cancun Challenge or the Philly Hoop Group Classic because the teams involved are irrelevant, and I think I've typed just about enough for one evening.  There are a bunch more of these tournaments coming up around Christmas-time, including a couple involving Big Ten representation (Northwestern in the MSG Holiday Festival and Indiana in the Las Vegas Classic) so I might recap them after the holidays.  By then I'm pretty sure there will be nothing left to care about as far as the Gophers are concerned.  That team is absolute garbage.

Atlantic 10 College Basketball 2010 Preview

1.  Xavier Musketeers.  Take note, Dayton dorks, because this is what you call a dynasty.  I remember last year, I think I picked the Musketeers fourth in the A-10 because of who was graduating, and they went ahead and won the conference, again, and made a nice run in the tournament, again.  This year, they once again look like they might be down with Jordan Crawford off to the NBA, but Terrell Holloway is back and I love that little guy.  His development from out of control spaz as a freshman (think Kevin Clark, any year) to stone cold killer has been fun to see, and now in his junior year this is clearly his team and I can't wait to see if he'll be better than Jake Pullen, or merely as good.  With two other starters back, Mark Lyons and a slimmed down Kenny Frease ready to step in and start, and top25-type recruiting class coming in it wouldn't be a shock at all to see them in the sweet 16 for the fourth straight year.

2.  Temple Owls.  On paper this team is probably better than Xavier, but I learned my lesson last year about doubting the Musketeers.  That said, Temple should easily hit their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, and they are certainly back to a perenially good program now under Fran Dunphy.   The Owls lose leading scorer Ryan Brooks, but have enough pieces in place that it shouldn't hurt them.  Juan Fernandez is an oustanding point guard who I really want to compare to Pepe Sanchez, but that's lazy since they're both hispanic so instead I'll say he reminds me a lot of Greivis Vasquez.  With Lavoy Allen also back to dominate the inside, and last year's A-10 sixth man of the year Ramone Moore ready to slide in for Brooks, they're in great shape.

3.  Richmond Spiders.  Of all the graduating players in the conference, nobody is going to miss their guy more than the Spiders will miss David Gonzalvez.  They still have point guard and A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson back, but he and Gonzalvez formed a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo, averaging 32.4 points between the two of them - 46% of the team's scoring - and were the top two assist and steal guys to boot.  Beyond finding someone to fill in for Gonzalvez, the big key for the season is the continued improvement of PF Justin Harper, who is suddenly getting "potential NBA pick" buzz, as well as if Dan Geriot can get back to close to what he was before he hurt his knee.  He was a double-digit scorer and a beast inside before the injury, but averaged less the 7 points per game last year.  If he is recoverd in year 2 post-surgery, this team goes from a good team to a great team.

4.  St. Louis Billikens.  Majerus's team was one of the youngest in the country last year, but came together and closed strong, finishing 11-5 in the A-10 and denied an NCAA berth due to a very weak non-conference schedule.   This year the schedule has been upgraded along with the expectations, because with their top six scorers back - all of whom were unerclassmen last year - they are in position to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000.  Kwamain Mitchell (16 points, 3 rebs, 3 assists per game), Willie Reed (12 pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks), and Cody Ellis (11 pts, 5 rebs) are a dynamic trio, and the Billikens were one of the toughest defensive teams in the country last year.  Pay attention to their game November 20th vs. Georgia - the result of that one will help give a gauge on how "for real" this team is.  [NOTE:  I have since been informed that Mitchell and Reed have been suspended due to some chick framing them for some kind of sex allegation.  This obviously means that they're screwed.]   

5.  Dayton Flyers.  I've talked about this on here before, but is there a more overrated program than the Flyers?  They continually get praised as if they've accomplished something, but they've only made one NCAA Tournament in the last six years, and they continually underachieve.  Once again this year they'll be built around an overrated power forward who can't stay healthy and a bunch of guards with gigantic question marks surrounded them .  Either way I still have a special place in my heart for Dayton fans, who are almost identical to Packer fans.  They have the same mix of delusion, overconfidence, and entitlement, mixed with a dash of overconfidence and a sprinkle of questionable personal hygiene and mental problems.

6.  Charlotte 49ers.  Interesting team here.  They were cruising towards an NCAA berth last year at 18-5 and 8-1 in conference play before a 1-7 close to the season,  including losses to G. Washington and UMass, left them out of postseason play altogether.  Last year's point guard (Dijuan Harris) is gone and there's some concern about if anybody on the roster can replac ehim, but they return most of last year's team, including the dynamic inside duo of Shamari Spears (16 ppg/6 rpg last year) and Chris Braswell (10 and 9).  New coach Alan Major has a reputation for getting the most out of post players, so this sounds like a good combo to me.  Not like those pizzeria pretzel combos.  Seriously, who thought that one up?  Gross.

7.  Rhode Island Rams.  The Rams might not make the NCAA  Tournament all that often, but they are always a tough, tough, tough matchup, and there's no reason for that not to be the case again this year.  They lose two double-digit scorers from last year's team, but that doesn't mean they aren't still in good shape.  The three returning starters are all good players and give you an excellent balance of a ball-handler (Marquis Jones - 4.1 assists per game, third in A-10), an athletic wing (Delroy James - 13.2ppg, and second on team in 3-pointers despite being 6-8), and a big man in seven-footer Will Martell (8pts, 5 rebs).  Martell needs to improve because his rebounds and blocks are low for a seven-footer and he's the man down low this year.     

 
8.  Duquesne Dukes.  The Dukes return one of the best players you've never heard of in Damian Saunders, a double-double machine who doesn't mind blocking your shot right back in your stupid face if you were dumb enough to bring it to his house.  With four other big-time contributors back, including #2 leading scorer in guard Bill Clark and point guard Eric Evans, this will probably be the best Duquesne team in 30 years, not that it's exactly a huge feat, but you gotta start somewhere.  The Dukes made the NIT two years ago but dropped back into the CBI last season - their first back-to-back postseasons since 1980-1981.  Time to take that next step, boy-os.  Do it for Mike James.

10.  UMass Minutemen.  Leading scorer Ricky Harris is gone and UMass won just twelve games last year, but there is some reason to be optimistic based on what's coming back.   Anthony Gurley, Terrell Vinson, and Freddie Riley are all good all-around wing types who averaged over or close to double-digits in scoring last year and all showed at different times that they are capable of taking over a game against a quality opponent - they just all have to bring that A game at the same time.  If they can find some consistent point guard play (overall UMass had more turnovers than assists) they could finish higher than this.  You could almost call them a sleeper, except they aren't quite good enough.

10.  George Washington Colonials.  GW has ten of last year's twelve contributors back, but one of the guys who is missing is last seasons leading scorer, Damian Hollis, and they weren't exactly world beaters last year, going just 16-13 (6-10 in A10), and it was an empty 16 wins without a single good victory in there anywhere that I could find.  So how do you rate experience coming back, but save a couple of guys, subpar talent?  10th, apparently.

11.  LaSalle Explorers.  If you ever want proof that I'm an idiot, you can look at my picking this team to be one of the top teams in the A-10 last year - probably my biggest whiff ever.  Rodney Green was a superstar and Aaric Murray was a top recruit and I thought they'd surprise.  Well, they did.  They surprised the hell out of me by being a bunch of worthless sucks who sucked.  Now Green is gone, Murray is overrated, and I'll never trust these guys again.  At least until Lionel Simmons II comes to town.

12.  St. Joseph's Hawks.  I don't believe it would be possible to pick a worse time to have a home-and-home with the Hawks, because they were brutal last year and this year ain't fixin' to get much better.  Remember these guys last year?  The team the Gophers beat 97-74 and won just five conference games?  Well, it's basically the same team as last year, except their two best players graduated.  Actually, there is reason for optimism and a good reason to look forward to watching them play, and that's freshman center C.J. Aiken, who was ranked by Rivals as the #8 center who should play immediately.  They also added a couple other solidly ranked, athletic freshman to give them one of the better classes in the conference, that just won't make much of a difference this year.

13.  St. Bonaventure Bonnies.  The good news is that stud big man Andrew Nicholson is back, and last year as a sophomore he was good enough to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field.  Pretty awesome.  The bad news is that Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews (no relation to Eric and Cory) graduated and took over 25% of the team's scoring with them (nearly 50% of the non-Nicholson points) and starting point guard Malcolm Eleby is gone after getting into a fight on-campus.  Why that couldn't have happened to Lawrence Westbrook I'll never know.

14.  Fordham Rams.  This is familiar.  Two years ago Fordham was terrible, but Jio Fontan had a huge year and was the only bright spot.  Then he transferred.  Last year, the Rams were again terrible, but Chris Gaston was a monster, notching 19 double-doubles, and going 30 & 10 three times.  No, he hasn't transferred, but Fordham promises to be awful once again, so he'd have every right to in my book.  Loyalty is admirable, but who wants to play for at team that's won five games the last two season combined.  Yes, combined.  And I mean five total wins, not five conference wins.  It ain't easy being one of the worst offensive and worst defensive teams in the country, Fordham just makes it look easy.


Other Previews:

Other Previews:
Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big East College Basketball 2010 Preview

Week in Review - 3/21/2010

 Well, we made it back from Chicago and everyone is still alive.  Sorry for the lateness of this post, but believe me after pulling consecutive days with 12+ hours logged at the bar, the last thing I could manage when I got back on Sunday was writing some stupid crap for this stupid blog.  But now that I'm back, even though I still feel like crap, I figure I should at least put up some kind of half-assed Week in Review (well, more half-assed than usual, I mean.) 

Quickly, two things that stood out from the Chicago weekend:

1)  A Colombian man openly weeping in the middle of the Dayton bar while listening to latin music on his pink Ipod.

2)  Loud, obnoxious Kansas fan yelling "yes" when Kansas hit that meaningless three with 0.4 left in the game.  He either forgot the actual score or has no idea how basketball works, and I'm not sure which way is funnier but I know he had all of us rolling in the back room after we heard him. 

Anyway, on to the usual garbage:


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Xavier.  It's hard to blame the Gophers too much for the loss on Friday, particularly when the Musketeers were the far better team, and they continued to show that by beating Pitt on Sunday to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season - one of just two teams (Michigan State is the other) who can make that claim.  Sure, there were things the Gophers could have done better/differently, but the entire game it seemed as if the Gophers were doing everything in their power just to keep it close, and I don't really remember ever thinking they had a chance to pull it out.  Jordan Crawford was by far the best player on the court with his 28 point, 6 rebound, 5 assist performance (which he followed up with 27-6-6 against Pitt) and the Gophers had no idea how to keep Love and McLean off the boards.  Xavier has enough talent to take down Kansas State and could advance to the Elite 8 this week.  I don't think they have enough juice to beat Syracuse, but once you get this deep, anything can happen.

2.  Joe Mauer.  Or Bill Smith or Ron Shapiro or whoever you want to give the credit too.  The important thing is that Mauer is signed  Even if he regresses a bit, his downside is probably something like .310/.390/.480 with 15 homers, and from a gold glove catcher even that is probably worth close to what he's getting paid.  Add in his upside, MVP-potential, and what he means to this town, and it had to be done.  I'd say this is all they had left to do, but with Nathan now out for the year I think they need to make another move.  This team is really good and right on the verge, and I'm afraid if they don't do something it's going to be a disaster.  Tell me you don't see them going closer-by-committee, having it become a disaster, and not realizing or trying to make a change until it's too late.  That's exactly something the Twins would do.  I read somewhere that the Padres want Perkins and two "good" prospects for Heath Bell.  Now, if that "good" level means guys like Ben Revere and Wilson Ramos I'd tell the Padres to go screw, but if they're talking like Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson then it's time to run, not walk, to make this deal. 

3.  Ali Farokhmanesh.  The biggest upset of the tournament thus far has got to be UNI's victory over Kansas (well, Ohio over G-Town was probably bigger, but essentially meaningless), and the hero was without question Cedar Falls' version of Jamal Abu Shamala in Farokmanesh.  That monster three pointer he hit with 30 seconds left was the stupidest, dumbest, ballsiest shot I've ever seen, and since it went down and ended up being the game winner, Farok goes down as a hero rather than a goat, and is going to end up being a tournament legend who is talked about long after his playing days are done a la Bryce Drew.  Add in the fact that he also hit a three with under five seconds to go to give the Panthers their opening round win over UNLV, and this kid had one hell of a weekend.  It's just unfortunate that he's a terrorist.

4.  Cornell.  Remember all that "under-seeded" talk?  Well, two wins and a sweet 16 berth says that wasn't just crazy talk.  I still contend the Big Red caught a nice break in running up against two team's that play a similar style and weren't going to out-athletic them, but you can't really talk down to an Ivy League team that ends up playing in the second week of the tournament.  Even though Ryan Wittman gets most of the press, especially here with his Minnesota connection, seven-footer Jeff Foote might end up being the key against Kentucky.  He's not just some big ole seven-footer who plays because he's seven feet tall in the Ivy League, he has some legit skill and good footwork and is going to need it all against Kentucky.  This is going to be a real tester, since Kentucky is playing as well as it has all year.  I'd love to see Calipari go down, no matter how unlikely it may be.

5.  Michigan State.  How annoying are the Spartans?  It's the same thing every year, they look mediocre all through the Big Ten season, end up with a middle-high type seed, you think they're ripe for the upset, and then they just keep winning.  That monstrously entertaining win over Maryland on Sunday gave Michigan State their third Sweet-16 in as many years (meanwhile the Gophers haven't made it that far in over ten years) and showed once again why you never, ever doubt Izzo.  I read that there is a 90% chance Sparty will be without Kalin Lucas against Northern Iowa, and normally I'd say that is a pretty big deal, but it doesn't seem to matter who is there or gone on Izzo's teams, so they'll probably win by ten.  Oh, and Durrell Summers is absolutely going to be a huge star next season.  All Big-10 First Team.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Scottie Reynolds.  There's not much as enjoyable as watching a truly overrated chucker nearly shoot his team to a loss in the first round against a 15-seed and then, after his team manages to escape thanks to an NCAA mandate to the refs that Robert Morris isn't allowed to win, doing the same thing 48 hours later, but this time they couldn't escape and were dropped by the suddenly super popular Omar Samhan and St. Mary's 75-68.  I'm not kidding either.  Your precious All-American shot 2-15 in the first game and was 2-11 in the second, going 4-26 in what has to be a record in futility from someone who idiotic fans love because they're stupid.  He makes Stephen Curry look like Magic Johnson.  I'm almost sad he's graduating, just because he's so fun to root against, but I will enjoy not having to hear about him anymore.  Maybe the most overrated player in history.

2.  The Big East.  Speaking of overrated, what do we think of the Big East?  Eight teams with bids, called the best conference in all the land for the second-year in a row, and yet only two teams (Syracuse and West Virginia) are still alive for the Sweet 16.  It's really not that bad if you think about how they made up 1/8th of the invitees and still make up 1/8th of the remaining teams, but they were set up for a lot more success.  Both Villanova and Georgetown had Final Four aspirations and Pitt was a three-seed, Marquette and Notre Dame as six seeds were picked by some to make the Sweet 16 but lost in the first round, and Louisville was thought to be a challenge for Duke in round two but couldn't even get past Cal.  That's currently a 6-6 record for the conference by my count, which sounds ok until you think about how they had a 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9 seed.  Seriously, pretty embarrassing.

3.  The Mountain West.  Well, if we're going to talk about disappointing conferences we can't very well ignore the Mountain West, which had three teams invited, two with a good chance at getting to the Sweet 16, but instead ended up going just 2-3, with their top team (New Mexico) getting bounced hard in round 2 by Washington by 20 and BYU refusing to even show up in their second round guy against Kansas State after just squeaking by a Florida team that probably didn't even deserve a bid.  Not that I necessarily thought these guys were great, but this certainly doesn't help my argument that high-mid-major teams from conferences like the A-10 and MWC can be valid sleepers in the NCAA tournament.  Apparently you have to go to smaller conferences like the Ivy or Missouri Valley to have a prayer.

4.  Richmond.  Hey, speaking of teams that suck and aren't valid sleepers, let's give it up for my most disappointing team of the dance - The Richmond Spiders.  I was so fired up for these guys to make a run.  They closed out winning twelve of their last fourteen including a huge win over Xavier in the A-10 tournament, and even though I knew St. Mary's was a dangerous 10 seed I was still expecting a Richmond win followed by another win over Villanova.  Obviously not.  And they would have beaten Villanova, too, just like the Gaels did, but they decided not to show up for their first game.  Seriously, have to seen this stat?  Richmond was out-rebounded 39-16?  How is that even possible?  The earlier mentioned Samhan had twelve boards all by himself, which means he damned near out-rebounded the Spiders all by himself.  Ridiculous.  And such a good team, too.  I mean, they just had 35 rebounds in a game against Xavier the prior week.  Such a shame. 

5.  Blake Hoffarber. I'm sick of Hoffarber.  Actually that's not exactly true, I'm just sick of an offense that relies so heavily on someone who can't create his own shot.  Hoff is just fine.  He's a great shooter (unless he's too open), he's a good rebounder for his size and lack of athleticism, and he's a smart player.  I'm just sick of watching all these good teams and all these good players and we're stuck watching the Gophers and their two players who can create their own shot, one of whom is likely functionally retarded.  I want better players, dammit.  Get on it, Tubby.  You need to get this program turned all the way around before you bolt to Auburn.  Don't you betray me, too.  I'm still trying to recover from Rico Tucker turning his back on me.

Week in Review - 2/15/2010

If you came here to talk Gophers you came to the wrong place.  Sorry.  I know we bill ourselves here as a Gopher/Twins blog, but we are officially switching over to a Twins/Ohio State blog.  I just don't see the need to cover a team anymore who, over and over again, plays well and can control the game until they suddenly realize they have the lead and go into complete panic/shutdown mode.  It's not particularly fun.  The rest of you chowder heads can continue to torture yourself by watching this abortion of a team.  I'm out.



Until Thursday against Wisconsin.  God I'm such a masochist. 


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Purdue.  The win over Iowa on Saturday is no big deal, but the throttling of Michigan State in East Lansing was like whoa.  The Boilers thoroughly beat the Spartans 76-64 and outplayed them all the way around in their own house.  They raked Sparty's defense for 57% shooting and 43% from three, and out-rebounded a damn good rebounding team.  All three of the Boilers' triplets lit the place up, but the big gun on Tuesday was E'Twaun Moore who hit big shot after big shot.  Every time MSU started to make a run, Moore would hit a big shot to start a run right back for Purdue.  This was a huge win, and a big statement.  I'm not quite convinced that Purdue is a Final Four team, but I'm warming up to the idea.

2.  Richmond.  I don't know that anybody had a better week than Richmond, and now they're near a lock for an at-large bid.  The Spiders picked up a monster win at Rhode Island, tipping the Rams 69-67, and then avoided a letdown at St. Bonaventure, picking up the 68-49 victory.  Richmond now stands atop the A-10 standings at 9-2, is 20-6 overall with wins over Florida and Missouri, and with an RPI of 26 it would take an epic skid to knock them out of the tournament at this point.  The A-10 is looking pretty set with Richmond, Temple, and Xavier near locks, Charlotte and Rhode Island squarely on the bubble, and Dayton struggling mightily and looking more like an NIT team.  Ha-ha Dayton, you suck.  Maybe your hippy fans can all go have a good cry together.  I wonder if that Dayton bar in Chicago will be all crowded for their NIT games?

3.  Cal.  It's about time somebody started separating themselves from the pack of Pac-10 mediocrity, and Cal looks like they're the team after sweeping through Washington with wins over both schools this week.  The win over Washington State isn't necessarily a big whoopty-doo, but beating Washington by double-digits is since the Huskies are the only other halfway decent team in the conference (sorry Arizona State, I know you're 8-5 but you still suck).  It's hard to really get a read on Cal.  I mean the Pac-10 sucks worse than the Gophers and Cal hasn't exactly run the table at 9-4, and their best non-conference win was over Iowa State.  On the other hand Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, and Theo Robertson are one of the most talented backcourts in the country, and guards win championships.  I'm not really sure what to think, but I'm pretty sure whatever I ended up deciding to do with them in my bracket they'll do the opposite.  

4.  Louisville.  The win over Syracuse in the Carrier Dome on Sunday was very important for the Cardinals not just because of the signature win-ness of it, but also because it cancels out their loss at St. Johns's earlier in the week, not to mention giving them their first win of the year over an RPI Top-25 team and probably taking them from the middle of to the good side of it.  Louisville is a really interesting team this year.  Thanks to Terrence Jennings's complete refusal to improve and try to become the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams type player, they're basically Samardo Samuels and a whole bunch of guards. 

5.  Ohio State.  I actually had this spot all reserved and typed up for Illinois since their win over Wisconsin in the Kohl Center was the exact huge signature win they really needed, but then they followed that up by getting so blown out by Ohio State in Champaign that I had the give the propers to the Buckeyes.  Seriously you guys, I'm totally not exaggerating when I say that this team is absolutely loaded and playing out of their minds right now.  They've won six in a row after winning two road games this week (Indiana and Illinois), have won nine straight Big 10 games, and are now in a tie for first a top the Big Ten.  They are absolutely a final four contender, and hopefully you listened to me and slapped some cash down on them when they were 75-1 to win the whole thing, because they've moved to 20-1 now.  And man, if I had ever said something like "Ohio State isn't a top 100 team this year" I'd probably like, stop talking.  And not just about sports, I'd just stop talking all together.  I'd feel like I owed the world that much, you know what I mean?  Like, it would just be the right thing to do.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Texas.  In a wide open season it's been difficult to figure out your final four teams.  Kansas is pretty much the only team I'd call a "lock" right now, mainly because I don't trust how young Kentucky is.  One team I had penciled in was Texas even during their recent skid, but after Monday night's embarrassing loss against Kansas it's painfully obvious that this Longhorn team isn't nearly as good as I thought.  I was ignoring the losses at Oklahoma and Kansas State and even the loss to Baylor at home, but this loss was unignorable in it's ugliness - kind of like Sarah Jessica Parker.  And it's not ugly because they lost to the #1 team by 12 at home, but it was the way they lost - absolutely Gopher-esque.  Terrible decisions with the ball, poor defensive effort, not getting back in transition, and missing open shots were the story of the day.  When the #1 team comes into your house and you're supposed to be a Final Four contender you can't turn the ball over 17 times and shoot 37% - you just can't.  I still think they have talent - Damion James is one of the best players in the country - but they are looking like more of a "ripe for a first round upset" team right now than a "sleeper final four team."  And no, beating Nebraska by 40 on Saturday does nothing to change my mind.

2.  West Virginia.  As long as we're talking about teams I had in the Final Four who had shaky weeks, we might as well throw the Mountaineers in here too.  They started the week out by losing at home to Villanova (allowing the Wildcats to shoot 57%), and then they dropped a road game at Pitt in which they led by seven with 43 seconds left, only to end up losing in triple-overtime.  Neither loss by itself is necessarily a huge red flag, but the combination of the two and the poor defense and late game meltdown are pretty telling, and actually remind me of how Huggy Bear's Cincinnati teams nearly always underperformed their seed.  Like Texas, there is still a lot to like with this team and they are still in the Final Four discussion, but now my faith is shaken.  And can a team without a real point guard get to the Final Four?  Jesus, at this rate I'm just going to pick random teams, everybody sucks this year.

3.  Rhode Island.  I mentioned above that Rhode Island is still probably in good shape to grab an NCAA bid - and they are - but they whiffed on a couple of big chances this week.  First, they had Richmond come in to their place and walk out with a two point victory, and then on Saturday they went into Temple and got their asses completely handed to them 78-56 in a game where Temple shot 68.6% - a Temple school record.  I say the Rams are in good shape because they have a good record and a nice RPI, but what they are really missing is any kind of signature win.  They have a couple nice wins - one over Dayton and one over Oklahoma State - but those are the team's only victories over RPI top 50 opponents and winning either of their games this week would have given them another.  With just one more crack at a top 50 team this year (Charlotte), it will be interesting to see how the committee treats them.  Good numbers, but is the profile too empty?    

4.  UNLV.  I don't know if it's the DWG Jinx or just some kind of natural let-down, but just one week after making a huge statement by whooping some Mormon ass they whiffed on two more opportunities to take down their top MWC competitors.  First, New Mexico came to Vegas and beat the Rebels 76-66, and then the Rebs traveled to San Diego to take on SDSU and lost that one as well, 68-58.  Neither of those are bad losses, and UNLV should be able to win their last five to finish out at 12-4 in the MWC and 24-6 overall so they'll be ok, but pretty much a huge letdown week following up that monster win. 

5.  Siena.  Unlike the other four teams on the suck list this week, the Saints might have actually lost their at-large bid with their play over the weekend, in this case a loss to Niagara by the count of 87-74.  What really hurts is that Niagara isn't the good Niagara they've been the last few years - they're under .500 in the MAAC and have an RPI in the 150s.  Although it's just Siena's first conference loss, that might be all it takes to eliminate them from at-large consideration.  They don't have any wins over the RPI top 50 and they whiffed on every opportunity they had in the non-conference schedule to get a big win.  Next weekend is Bracket Busters, and the Saints were lucky enough to draw Butler, but unfortunately they have to go on the road.  No matter, this game has gone from a "would be a really good idea to win" to an "absolutely must-have win" for the Saints.  In any case, at least they aren't the Gophers.  That would really suck for them.


What also sucked was the All-Star H.O.R.S.E. event.  A really good idea, but they've commercialized it and regulated it to the point that it just sucks to watch.  There's like a 30 second break between every shot so Barkley and the TNT crew can yuck it up, so there's no flow to the game at all.  I wondered why they only had three people, and it's because they take so many breaks and there is so much "witty banter" that there's really only about one shot per minute.

Great idea, terrible execution.  Like the exact opposite of the last Indiana Jones movie, which had a terrible script that was executed well.  Neither one works.  Much like this edition of Gopher basketball, which is a terrible idea executed terribly.  Seriously.  This year's team is like that Paris Hilton movie "The Hottie and the Nottie" - just a horrid idea that was awful in its execution.  Jesus, I just compared the Gophers to that movie and I don't think that's being harsh enough.  Remind me why I'm going to the game on Thursday?  Oh, right.  I'm really stupid.