Previewing the Sweet 16 - Thursday

Calm down I'm here. Sorry. Unfortunately, the day after Selection Sunday we found out Mrs' W's grandpa died out in Utah, so it was a whirlwind of activity figuring out how to get out there, how to get the kids taken care of, and actually being there and seeing family and going from function to function and what not so I haven't been able to post anything about the Tournament. Luckily, however, the games were always on in the background and I'm really good at tuning out mindless conversation, so I know everything that happened. And, as a compulsive gambler, I probably know even more than you. Here's what's going on Thursday:


Wichita State vs. Notre Dame: Here we have that age old classic matchup of offense vs. offense, with Notre Dame averaging 1.21 points per possession (3rd in NCAA) and Wichita averaging 1.14 (16th). At first glance, Wichita seems more likely to be able to hold the Irish down than vice versa since their defense ranks much better, but playing in a weaker conference like the Missouri Valley can sometimes prop that up.  In the Shockers first two tournament games they allowed 76 points (1.1ppp) and 65 points (0.94), higher numbers than the 0.92 on the season - though the Kansas game was mighty impressive.

Notre Dame was pointed out by many as an upset prone type of team because of their reliance on the three pointer and suspect defense, and though they've shown a little better profile in the games so far (only 6 threes attempted against Northeastern, a good defensive effort vs. Butler) two three point wins, one in OT, don't have me convinced they're any less vulnerable.  Wichita is vulnerable to the three, but you have to work hard to get open shots against that defense, and they do an excellent job defending inside.  The Irish don't get offensive rebounds and don't create turnovers so they're going to have to hit open shots to score - which they are certainly capable of.

One of the most impressive things about the Shockers is they are super balanced in their inside/outside scoring.  They aren't dependent on the 3, but they can hit a ton of them if you leave it open - they beat Indiana hitting just two threes, they beat Kansas hitting ten.  The Shockers are an incredibly balanced team with no major weaknesses and a lot of strengths.  I mentioned before how a team's stats can be inflated going against inferior competition, and that's certainly a possibility here, but I think Wichita's results in the tournament the last two seasons show they aren't some overrated mid-major.  

Bet:  Wichita State -1.5 (2 UNITS), Over 137 (2 UNITS)



Wisconsin vs. North Carolina: This is a horrible matchup for the Heels. This is a team that can’t shoot, but thrives in transition and creates second chances for itself by absolutely owning the offensive boards (5th in the country). They don’t create rurnovers either, so they absolutey need those boards to score if they can’t get out and run. Now Kennedy Meeks, one of their two big time rebounders could be hurt or at least limited, and they’re about to go up against Frank Kaminsky. Yikes.

Seems pretty straight forward on the Badger end of things. Offensively they’re pretty much content to go one shot and be done, but always get that one shot. They won’t turn it over and the UNC defense doesn’t force turnovers, so most likely the Badgers will finish in single digits. They shoot the ball well enough that they won’t have to worry about creating second shot opportunities, and I expect to see four, if not five, Badgers sprinting to get back on defense as soon as a shot goes up. With everyone back and no or limited turnovers, the transition chances for the Tar Heels are going to be close to nil.

Generally the Badgers try to limit their opponents three point chances, but unfortunately Bo Ryan is smart enough to know that’s the exact opposite tact to take against North Carolina. The Badgers will likely pack the defense in and go under all screens (possible exception against Marcus Paige), forcing Carolina to make outside shots, something they’ve been horrible at this year. With Meeks status up in the air they’ll be even more limited in the paint anyway, so for them to have a chance someone like Justin Jackson or Nate Britt is going to have to suddenly learn how to shoot the lights out, or Brice Johnson will have to have the game of his life - seems unlikely. The Badgers, who hate to fast break like a fat kids hates asparagus, will send all five defensive players to the boards as well to take away as many second chance points from UNC as possible.

What does this all add up to? A slow it down, one shot each time down the court for each team kind of game. Does that sound more like a North Carolina kind of game, or a Wisconsin kind of game? I’ll give you a hint: Meeks leads the Heels in eFG% at 56.6% - four of the Badger starters are better than that, and Bronson Koenig would be if his 2-point % wasn’t so awful.

Bet: Wisconsin -5 (2 UNITS), Under 144 (5 UNITS).



West Virginia vs. Kentucky:  In order to beat Kentucky, several things have to happen and yes, all of them need to happen.  First, you have to be able to limit the monsters on the blocks.  Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles are huge, natural scoring machines, Willie Cauley-Stein is an athletic freak who's learning how to score, and Dakari Johnson is seven-feet tall and can jump over everyone's head.  Keeping them contained is no easy task, but it can be done with big, physical defenders and strategic double teams.  West Virginia doesn't defend the two well, has limited big men and only one shot blocker.  Not off to a great start.

Second, you have to hope the guards miss their outside shots and then rebound when they do.  Kentucky's one weakness is they don't have great perimeter shooting, and though they're usually smart enough to pound the ball inside the Harrison twins and Devin Booker can occasionally fall in love with the jumper shot. You'd much rather take your chances there than letting the big guys go to work in the paint, you just have to get the rebounds - easier said than done with UK rebounding 40% of their misses this season.  Kentucky's guards will have a significant size advantage over the Mountaineer guards so when they double and then close out the Wildcat shooters will be able to shoot over them, they'll just have to hope they miss and then rebound.  They're an average defensive rebounding team, so this could go either way.

Third, you have to be able to score.  Kentucky is a great, yes great, defensive team and they can shut teams down.  The good news for WVU is that they can score in some unconventional ways by excelling at getting themselves extra possessions.  The Mountaineers are #1 in the country at forcing turnovers and #4 in the country in offensive rebounding - that's a whole lot of extra shots.  They're a terrible shooting team, but they've gotten this far by creating extra scoring chances for themselves, something that will be the key to the game.  Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over much and they handled Arkansas pretty well, but they're surprisingly vulnerable to opponents' offensive rebounding. 

This will be an interesting game, because it's a team with an unconventional profile taking on Kentucky, a team they'll have to play against in a completely different way than they're used to.  Another wrinkle is Bob Huggins being involved, because no matter what you think of the guy as a person he's one hell of a coach.  Don't forget, the last time these teams matched up in the NCAA Tournament was when that John Wall/Demarcus Cousins Kentucky team looked unstoppable, and WVU won.  

Bet:  West Virginia +13.5 (2 UNITS), Under 136 (1 UNIT)



Xavier vs. Arizona:  Arizona is clearly the more talented team here.  The Wildcats have three or four future NBA draft picks on their team, one guaranteed in the lottery, and another guy who made the All Pac-12 First Team.  The Musketeers' best player is the guy everyone is making jokes about how he looks like a guy playing at the Y and is an Uber driver in his spare time.  In many ways this is your classic glitz and glamor vs. grit and hustle match-up, until you realize Arizona works its collective ass off and is one of the best defensive teams in the country so they're pretty damn gritty hustley too, just more talented.  So can Xavier keep this one close?

I think it's going to depend on if Arizona can hit threes.  Xavier tends to play a more packed in defense, giving up more three point attempts than average, and then hit the boards hard to limit second chances.  Arizona is not a great three point shooting team, although they do hit a good percentage.  The Wildcats prefer to get the ball inside, and then take threes when they're open.  Only Stanley Johnson and Gabe York took over 100 shots from behind the arc on the team this year, though they did hit each hit better than 37% so daring them to shoot is playing with fire.  There's no real easy way to stop Arizona, but keeping them out of the lane as much as possible is a good start.

Xavier is very well coached team, and as such I expect they'll realize they can't win an uptempo game against an Arizona team that thrives in transition.  This game will likely turn into a half court kind of affair, and with the Musketeers ability to keep Arizona off the offensive glass and their likely emphasis on getting back on defense rather than getting their own misses means the game will come down to Xavier not turning it over, and Xavier making enough shots to keep up with Arizona (X will likely not turn over Zona much).  The Musketeers played great offensively against both Ole Miss and Georgia State, and though Arizona is on a completely different level, Xavier so far has that look of a team that both knows it is not supposed to have gotten this far, and also knows it has nothing to lose.  Sounds kind of stupid, but it's also kind of a thing.

Bet:  Xavier +11 (1 UNIT), Under 136 (2 UNITS)

Back tomorrow for Friday's games.  

Greetings from the City of Angels

That would be Los Angeles, just so you know.  I know back in the day when I used to travel all the time I would just fill up the hotel room sink with a bunch of beer and ice, drink it all, and just blog like crazy.  I would like you to know that I've grown up from those days - the beer is in the fridge. 

-  I was at the Dodger game tonight (more on that later) and I opened up Twitter on my phone to tell everyone how cool I am for being at Dodger Stadium and what do I see?  J.P. Macura committed to Xavier.  Shit.  Everything Pitino has been doing with recruiting has been impressive so far with getting on so many top 5 and top 3 lists for a whole bunch of really good prospects, but none of that matters if nobody actually, you know, signs on to become a Gopher.  Right or wrong (actually obviously wrong) Macura was the one everybody just kind of assumed would be a Gopher.

He was a Minnesota kid, and although he was highly regarded (#104 according to Rivals) he wasn't so highly regarded that the big time programs would be after like with Rashad Vaughn, Tyus Jones, and Reid Travis (recently offered by Duke by the way - FML) and so the Gophers would have an edge despite the late start for Pitino in chasing him.  There was also the perception, for some reason, that the other two schools in the hunt (Xavier and Creighton) were lesser programs and that also gave the Gophers a real good shot.  Well, oops.

The new Big East is a pretty damn good hoops conference (Xavier, Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, St Johns, Seton Hall, Butler, and Villanova) with some pretty good history among those individual programs, not to mention between each other in the old Big East, so you can certainly see why Macura would be interested.  Minnesota's enrollment is north of 50,000, while Xavier is just shy of 5,000, so if the kid wants smaller class sizes and student body (I have no idea if this was a factor) there's a dramatic difference.  And it's not like J.P. didn't do his due dilligence, he unoffically visited the U like 5 times, but Xavier showed up to visit with him today and left with his verbal, so good on them. 

There's no doubt that this sucks.  Even though Macura wasn't the highest rated player Pitino has worked to have a shot with, he was the most likely to become a Gopher, or so we thought.  Those who are talking themselves into the fact that Macura didn't commit to Minnesota because he's worried Pitino will recruit over him with a higher rated wing (hi gopherhole) are just chasing unicorns (along with those thinking oh well he wasn't a program changer anyway or Pitino is after bigger fish anyway).  Although I remain confident, there is nothing really to be confident about and that's the honest truth. 

Some fans are panicking.  Some are almost absurdly confident.  The truth, as usual, is somewhere in the middle.  There's no doubt Pitino has made some serious recruiting inroads, and the Gophers remain very much in the game for some very good players.  The most important right now is probably Lourawls Nairn, ranked #61 by Rivals who has narrowed his list to the Gophers, Oklahoma, and Indiana.  If Pitino can ink him we can all throw a party with sombreros and pie and move on with confidence.  There are still a handful of others who could make us all feel warm and happy (Isaiah Whitehead, Paul White, Josh Martin) as well as the remaining three Minnesota kids, but recruits are committing all over the place right now and I would feel much, much better if the Gophers could sign one of them.  Any one.

-  We went to the Dodger game tonight which was cool.  It was supposed to be the whole group of 20 or so who are out here for this work thing, but everything fell apart and it was just me and one co-worker.  We cabbed it out there (nearly an hour, stupid LA traffic) and as we're getting out of the cab I say, "You brought your ticket right?" because I had purchased them (corporate card, of course) and printed his out and gave it to him before we left Minnesota.  He says, "oh shit no, it's in my laptop bag."  I chuckled because of course I assume he's kidding.  He wasn't, and he's like, what do we do now?

Luckily I'm like Jason Bourne and quick on my feet, so I'm like "boom smartphone" and pull up the ticket and we should be good to go.  Well the 100-year old man at the gate is like, "no, you have to have a printed ticket" and I ask if there's anywhere to print them here assuming he'll say no and we're shit out of luck.  Fortunately, however, he says we can go to Lot G where they actually have Stubhub ticket booths to print tickets.  Nice.  We walk halfway around the stadium and get the ticket printed and we're good to go.

Then we get in and I look where we are and we are walking in by section 52.  Our tickets are section 53.  This is working out well.  We look around, however, and can't find 53.  So we ask the usher dude who kind of chuckles and says, "you're on the wrong side of the stadium guys."  Turns out the even sections are on one side of the stadium and the odd are on the other.  We walked in by the right field foul pole and our seats are by the left field foul pole only we can't get there going through the outfield sections and have to pretty much walk all the way around the stadium.  So at least we got to see pretty much all of it, which was nice.

-  Dodger Stadium was really nice, and you'd never know it was built in 1962 and is the third oldest major league ballpark still in use behind Fenway, which is a dump, and Wrigley, which I'm ashamed to admit I still haven't been to.  It's got that thing all the newer ballparks have where you can see the game from the concourse no matter where you are (which came in handy tonight) and was just a real nice, pleasant field.  We had seats right by the Dodger bullpen in the third row in left field and I never had a ball hit anywhere near me.  Still have never caught a ball at a major league game which seems ridiculous considering how many games I've been to in my life.  Stupid probability.

-  Juan Uribe hit 3 home runs which was pretty cool because I can't recall ever being at a game where somebody hit 3 home runs.  You know how many homers he hit last season?  Two.  The year before that?  Four.  So this was the rarest of rare occurrences and I think it makes me pretty awesome.

-  There were way more non-white people there than at Target Field.  Like way more.

-  Carlos Marmol throws really, really hard.  That's not breaking news, but we were right next to the Dodger bullpen and a bunch of guys warmed up and you could hear the catcher's mitt pop but when Marmol got up it was a whole different sound - like when he first aired it out everyone in the section's head just jerked in that direction to see what was going on.  Of course, he has no idea where he's throwing it, but he has no idea where he's throwing it pretty fast.

-  Dodger Stadium is pretty spendy.  I got what they're famous for - a Dodger Dog (good as advertised) and garlic fries (not nearly as good as I expected) plus a domestic light beer and the total was $24.  I guess it's pretty stupid to continue to get surprised by stadium/airport/movie theater/hotel prices, but I've never said I'm not stupid. 

-  Speaking of that, this hotel I'm at might be the fanciest I've ever stayed in, and I've stayed at the Cornhusker Inn in Lincoln, NE.  And a water costs $4.  I'm not talking some fancy water from the mini-bar either, just regular old bottled water.  The mini-bar water is $7.50, as is a bag of chips that would normally cost 99 cents.  Snickers?  $5.  I know, I know, I sound like a cranky old man.  I kind of want to kick my own ass right now.  Let's just move on.

-  This cars.com commercial with James van der Beek is easily the greatest commercial ever.  In case you haven't seen it:



Awesome.

-  I finally started watching Breaking Bad, and let me tell you that the hype is totally valid.  It's so awesome.  I think I've been watching for two weeks and I'm already up to Season 5, Episode 6.  I can't describe it, it's seriously amazing.  Every time you think you know where they're going, they go somewhere else and every episode is good.  My favorite shows have been the first 3 seasons of Lost and Game of Thrones, and I think Breaking Bad might be better than either.  We'll see how they wrap it up here in a couple of weeks, but if you can get to it, start watching it.  DO IT.

-  That's all I guess.  See you tomorrow.

And we're Spent

I was going to write about everything that happened today, but I write the previews and stuff first and then go back and write the introduction and I'm really quite tired and I don't think that's something that I'm going to do.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course).  Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else.  They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top.  The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals.  Except Duke.  Eff them.
FAVORITE:  Duke.  Of course it's Duke.  With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should).  It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders.  Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him.  Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football?  It's science.
SLEEPER:  Virginia.  The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record.  They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK:  Duke.  This is what Duke does.  They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.  And I love it every year.

ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore.  And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway.  And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10?  So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16.  Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea.  Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more.  We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE:  St. Louis.  The Billikens are streaking.  They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody.  You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend.  They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER:  Xavier.  A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid.  Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK:  VCU.  I can't help it, I love VCU.  They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works.  They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple.  That's a pretty good list.  It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.

BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year.  This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC.  The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE:  Long Beach.  Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference.  The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament.  Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine.  The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams.  Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK:  Irvine.  There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them.  Plus they're Anteaters. 

BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major.  And this is a low major, at least this year.  Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE:  Weber State.  Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now.  The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State.  Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State.  While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime). 
W's PICK:   Weber State.  It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament.  This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset.  Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER.  Don't you feel like a dummy?

BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night.  I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year.  With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy.  Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate.  Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE:  Kansas.  The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top.  Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor,  and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU.  They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else.  KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER:  Iowa State.  The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better.  They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays.  The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK:   Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender.  They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State.  All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on). 

BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball.  I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146.  Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild.  The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further.  There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE:  Indiana.  It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they?  I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois.  If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way.  I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer.  Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing.  The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care.   That's not a typo.
W's PICK:  Michigan.  Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team.  The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs.  By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009.  For serious.  That is ridiculous.

Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore.  They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten.  Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed.  If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win.  Does any of that sound manageable?  I just don't even know anymore.  Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers.  This is all I got, bro.  At least until I see how they play against Illinois.

Week in Review - 12/12/2011

There's no Gopher talk below because meh.  I'm sorry, they blew out St. Peter's which is exactly what they're supposed to do.  I just don't care.  I could probably break down all the players' shit or whatever but again, it was against St. Peter's so it's all basically meaningless.  Well not totally meaningless, I mean it's nice to see them work over a shitbox team they way they should so that's encouraging.  And I know this is a Gopher blog and I should write up every single game but in my defense fuck that shit.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Anaheim Angels.  Ok so yeah, the Pujols' contract is probably too long and the C.J. Wilson contract is probably a little much for somebody who hasn't shown he can be a true ace, but the Angels just grabbed the best hitter and best pitcher on the market.  As someone who thinks a team should spend as much as they can and as much as they want to win and doesn't get all revved up about big market vs. small market discrepancies (I don't hate the Yankees and Red Sox because they have more money, I hate them because they're assholes), I think it's an awesome move to say "Yeah, this is probably more than these guys are worth, but we can afford it and it makes us better."  Pretty sweet week to be an Angel fan, and with Pujols, Kendry Morales assuming he's ok, and Mark Trumbo now on board they have a pretty sweet trade chip which, if they're lucky, they can use to also persuade somebody to take Torii Hunter or Vernon Wells' contract.  And now they have Wilson, Dan Haren, and Jered Weaver at the front of the rotation.  Yeah, nice.  I'd say this makes up for the Napoli thing.


2.  Indiana Hoosiers.  Well that was a pretty awesome game.  Huge win for the Hoosiers, and they're definitely on the way back but I'm not convinced they're good.  I mean really they shouldn't even have won that game but John Calipari was too busy counting his illegal monies to actually coach.  Do you realize Indiana was down 2 with 6 seconds left and Kentucky had TWO fouls to give.  So you wait until the guy catches the ball in the back court, let him get 2-3 dribbles down and foul.  Then, when they take it out on the side, you waste another second and foul again, and at this point Indiana has like one second left and the ball out of bounds on the side at mid-court.  Boom.  You can choose to blame Calipari or you can choose to blame his players instead, but I contend that Calipari coached those players so IN YOUR FACE.   

3.  Michigan State Spartans.  Pretty good weekend for the B1G 10 (outside of Ohio State) and Michigan State's win over Gonzaga in Spokane (or wherever the hell Gonzaga is) was a very good one.  What I found most interesting was Draymond Green's line.  Usually he's all like, I'm gonna grab a bunch of boards and dish some assists and score some points and just kind of facilitate the offense, but in this one he just took the hell over and scored 34 of their 75 points (no other Spartan hit double figures) and really didn't do anything else (2 rebs, 3 asst) and was like a completely different person than usual.  I don't know if that's good or bad.  Like one time I had this friend who was a huge drunk and he was hilarious but he drank like all the time and then he stopped drinking and we were like good for you that will make you so much healthier but then he wasn't funny any more and was kind of lame and I haven't talked to him in a long time.


4.  Devoe Joseph.  Royce White is probably the best player in the Big 12 (FACT!!), Justin Cobbs is a valuable member of Cal's almost certainly NCAA Tournament squad, and now Devoe makes his debut for Oregon and leads them in scoring with 18, throwing in 4 assists (to 1 TO) to boot.  That's always fun.  I'm fucking pissed at Devoe.  I liked him too much for him to just turn his back on me like this, then show up with some west coast hippie dude looking sexier than ever.  That was a metaphor.  Also, because I don't know where else to put this and I can't remember my twitter password, I just want to mention that I'm alone in my basement and I'm choosing to watch The Next Iron Chef rather than football.  Does that make me gay?

5.  Rob Gronkowski.  Do you remember how when you used to play Tecmo Super Bowl sometimes Christian Okoye would be in "excellent" condition and then when you'd run with him you'd actively look for defensive players to just run over and bounce them right the fuck out of the screen?  That's like Gronky, he's just sick.  Completely untackleable.  It doesn't even matter if it's some pussy ass little safety or some big fat defensive lineman, nobody can bring this dude down.  And he's not just some big bruiser, he's got hands that are baby soft.  I once saw Randy Johnson whip an egg at his head at 98 mph and he just cradled it in and the thing didn't even break.  Then he humped a porn star and when he was done she was all like "you're the best I've ever had" and he was all like "yeah don't call me."  True story.


WHO SUCKED


1.   Joe Webb Fans.  Are you people serious?  After a very nice day at the bar with Dawger and Bear (ps suck it $nake), I happened to be listening to the after game call-in show or whatever for the Vikings and I'm pretty sure people are completely out of their damn minds.  Hosts and callers both, because there was apparently a for real debate about whether Webb or Ponder should be the Viking QB of the future.  Guess what geniuses, Joe Webb sucks at throwing a football.  Did you even watch the game?  He was missing open receivers by five freaking yards and I'm not exaggerating.  He's not Mike Vick bad or even Terrelle Pryor bad, he makes them look like me playing bar league football - dead on balls accurate.  Yes he's fast.  Fun.  But Ponder might be an actual real life QB, even if that throw across the body crap was the worst throw in the history of football.  Webb is a bit and you're dumb.  You know damn well you love him, don't lie to me.

2.  Creighton Blue Jays.  Could be the return of the curse of DWG, or could just be that Creighton sucks balls because after getting out to a blistering start that actually had me complimenting a Missouri Valley team, Creighton sucked big-time this weekend getting rolled by St. Joseph's.  Creighton allowed St. Joe's to shoot 49%, sent them to the line 29 times and got there just 9 themselves, and was out-rebounded 37-24.  They also allowed someone named Carl Jones to score 29 points.  I don't really have else to add since I don't really know that much about either team or care, but I did bet a decent amount on Creighton to win this one so I'm a little peeved.

3.  Memphis Tigers.  Speaking of betting oh my god I suck at betting so much when it's not props.  How the hell could Memphis possibly lose to Murray State at home?  Murray State isn't even good.  They're not even mediocre, and that's why Memphis was an 11 point favorite but instead of winning by eleven they just flat out lost.  Which made sense because I got raped like an Egyptian geisha this weekend.  But really, could Pastnor have learned from Calipari any better?  Recruit great athletes, stress defense, refuse to run anything remotely resembling a real offense and just hope your players can outplay your opponent - exactly like Kentucky these days.  Too bad Murray State is boring and disciplined.  I hate that shit.

4.  Manchester United.  Wow.  Just wow.  How do you lose to Basel, and how do you get knocked out in the Group Stage in Champions League?  This is the first time since 2005 Man U hasn't made it to the knockout round.  Also I told the swamp donkey to sock it before I gave her a trunky in the tradesman's entrance and had her lick my yarbles.

5.  The Xavier/Cincy Fight.  As someone who continually rips hockey because most of the "fans" of the "sport" care more about the fighting than the game I need to weight in here and say that the fight was stupid and dumb and stupid.  But you know what's even more stupid?  The people who are trying to blow this thing out of proportion and act like programs should be shut down and players should be kicked off teams.  Yes, punching some ugly white dude in the head isn't a good thing and stomping on some guy who's already on the ground is probably not a resume builder, but this is the ugliest rivalry in college hoops and has been for years.  The whole game (and pre-game really) was chippy and bitchy and you could see this shit coming when the refs didn't step in like asap.  Yes, it's a black mark on the game but it's not like somebody was engaging in a little horseplay in the showers here so let's settle down.  Also those people who are condemning Holloway for his "gangster" comment need to fucking relax.  He's not saying they're Crips for christ's sake, it's called his vernacular.  Relax, whitey.


By the way, this Tebow shit is ridiculous.  Every week it's the same thing - suck badly and embarrassingly for 3.5 quarters and then tear shit up in the last 6 minutes.  Once again it happened this week.  When I left the bar the Broncos were down 10-0, the offense had done nothing, and Tebow had 45 yards passing.  When I got home it turned out the Broncos won and Tebow threw for over 200 yards.  I mean how does this shit happen every single week?  It's crazy, and I gotta tell ya I think I've gone from Tebow hater to semi-on the bandwagon.  Seriously if he wasn't silly religious I'd probably be all aboard, but who am I to question god?  And if I was going to I'd probably start with the platypus anyway, then move on to general human misery and/or specific events like the holocaust or that tidal wave thing, and then eventually get to Tebow.  That sentence kind of got away from me.  Anyway, has there ever been such a lock for #2 in MVP voting?  Every single writer is going to go Rodgers #1 and Tebow #2.  And if they pick somebody other than Rodgers they're going to go that guy #1 and Tebow #2.  He's going to finish in second with zero #1 votes.  Right?  Because nobody would voluntarily vote him #1, right?  RIGHT?

Also I have $2 on Tebow to win MVP which would get me $200 so I'm on board.  Choo choo.

Week in Review - 12/5/2011

There's a preview of Appalachian State, the Gophers next opponent, at the very bottom of this post.  Huzzah!

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Rodney Williams.  I've been waiting forever for some positive feelings about Williams, and now I am finally feeling them.  He seems like a completely different player at the 4.  It's like before he was Mikey in the beginning of Swingers and now he's like Mikey at the end doing the twirly-whirly dance with Heather Graham and hanging up on that manipulative bitch Michelle.  Really though, he's always had the tools like the bear - the big fangs and those fucking claws or whatever - and he just didn't know how to kill the bunny.  Now he knows how to kill the bunny and dunk right on it's stupid head.  Good god, that's the perfect analogy.  Sometimes you people who read this should really be sending me money for that kind of insight.



2. Ohio State Buckeyes.  Nobody cares that the beat UT-Pan American by 30 even without Sullinger because I mean, come on, it's UT-PA, but that win over Duke earlier this week was like woah.  I mean, I did expect the Buckeyes to win and a double-digit win wouldn't shock me, but this was a thoroughly kick their ass from tip to final whistle pick your score kind of game.  I was impressed by OSU after they beat Florida in kind of a grind it out game, but they didn't quite have the look of a National Champion in that one.  Not so against Duke, where they looked like the most complete team in the country.  Really, there's just so much talent here.  Take away their two best players (Sully and Buford) and they're still probably a top 10 team.  Ridiculous.  With Duke and Florida out of the way, only the game at Kansas on Saturday stands in the way of an undefeated non-conference slate.  And hell, they win that one they might very well finish the year unbeaten, because they're far and away better than anybody else in the Big 10.  Which probably means they'll lose to Northwestern or some such nonsense.

3. Xavier Musketeers.  I feel like I talk about Xavier too much but I just really like that program and what they do year after year, and I really really like Tu Holloway (although I liked him better when he went by Terrell).  Their win over Purdue at home on Saturday was more of a ho-hum kind of win, not because it's not a quality victory but because it's what they were supposed to do (although falling behind by 19 in the second half and coming back to win probably says some positive things), but add that in with a very nice win at Vanderbilt that included scoring the final 4 points of the game to send it to OT and then scoring the first 12 points of overtime.  Xavier is a perennial sweet 16 team, and I've kind of been waiting for that big breakthrough squad to get them into the Final Four.  Is this the year?  No.   

4.  Missouri Valley.  For some reason I've always disliked the MVC.  I don't know why since I like all the other smaller conferences.  It's just like a rainbow - nobody can explain why it happens, it just does.  With that being said, however, the MVC is looking tough and annoying again like the old days.  This past week alone Creighton went to San Diego State and got a tough road win (and they stomped Nebraska) and Wichita State beat UNLV by 20 - yes, the same Rebels who beat North Carolina.  Additionally, Northern Iowa has just one loss and Indiana State finished third in the Old Spice Classic.  Things fall off in a hurry after those four teams (sorry Drake guy), but at the very least both Creighton and Wichita should be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, while UNI and Ind State can get in the conversation with a strong run through the league.  All of which means we'll probably have to hear a bunch of annoying crap about how good the MVC always is.  Like this post, which I guess means I'm part of the problem.  Talk about self-loathing.

5.  Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Although part of me feels like I should give Indiana some propers to the Hoosiers for their 8-0 start and tough road win at NC State, I'm going to go with a more wait and see (as in let's see if they can keep it within 20 against Kentucky this weekend) and instead give some props to screwed over Oklahoma State footballers, who stomped the rival Oklahoma Sooners 44-10 in the Big 12 Championship to finish the year at 11-1 and will now have a shot at the National Title against LSU - except not really because the BCS is instead giving everyone a rematch of a game played earlier this year between LSU and Alabama and the Cowboys have to play Stanford in the who cares Bowl instead.  So stupid.  LSU already beat Alabama, so let's say Bama beats LSU - can they really claim to be the best team?  They split.  If LSU plays Okla State it's still not as good as a tournament, but still better than a damn rematch.  Honestly, the end of the year crap is probably reason #1 that I don't get into college football as much as I do college hoops or baseball.  Actually reason #1 is my wife would kill me, but the end of the year stuff is a strong #2.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Dayton Flyers. Jesus Christ, Dayton, could you guys fuck things up any further?  You're a terrible team and a terrible program with terrible fans and no matter you'll never be more than 2nd class in your own conference, but hey, winning the Old Spice Classic, although not against top tier talent, is still some nice momentum.  Then you turn around and lose to Buffalo AT HOME by 30!!  And then lose by 20 at Murray State?!?!?!!  Instead of fighting for an NCAA bid, this team will be lucky to get an invite to the CIT, and they're who beat the Gophers?  This is the shitty shit box team who destroyed Trevor Mbakwe's career and the hopes and dreams of all the children of the world?  Is there any doubt that Dayton = satan?  It even rhymes!  If I go to Chicago again for the NCAA Tournament I'm burning that Dayton bar to the ground.  After I have their tasty wings of course.

2.  Washington Huskies.  Pretty sad considering how much I love the brand of circus ball the Huskies play, but it's becoming clear this just isn't a very good team this year.  Well I suppose I could be overreacting because they are 4-2, but they've only had two opponents who even resemble good teams and they lost to them both - St. Louis a week or so ago and Nevada this weekend.  I suppose it's awfully difficult to replace Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas) and then keep playing the same kind of circus ball, especially when one of your new main ball handlers is a freshman (Tony Wroten, currently averaging 4.5 turnovers per game) and the other is still trying to work his way all the way back from an ACL tear (Abdul Gaddy).  But the good news is they still play stupid fast and the Pac-10 is awful so they'll probably be back in the NCAA Tournament to thrill us with a couple games that go 190+ combined.  Don't expect too much though, there's little chance they survive the first weekend.  No matter how much I want them to.

4.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  Why, oh why, does Georgia Tech always suck so bad?  I have such fond memories of Lethal Weapon 3 (the original - Anderson, Oliver, Scott - not the stupid imitation shitty South Carolina group who tried to steal the nickname) that I still have some leftover fandom for the Jackets, but they're just terrible this year - again.  They're 4-4 and we aren't even at conference play yet, and the losses are against St. Joe's (bad), LSU (terrible), Northwestern (ok), and Tulane (bad).  If it wasn't for that win over VCU in the Charleston Classic, they'd be in the running for worst BCS Conference team in the country.  I mean not only did they lose to Tulane, but they were actually the underdogs.  Embarrassing.  Freshmen Julian Royal, sophomore Jason Morris, and juniors Mfon Udofia, Glen Rice, and Kammeon Holsey are all top 100 types of recruits.  Talent - yes.  Experience - yes.  Results - emphatically no.  This would be why what's his face got fired.

5.  Houston Cougars.  It's like something out of a book or a movie, isn't it?  Lightly recruited QB out of high school goes to to his hometown school, the only D-I program to even offer him a scholarship.  After redshirting his first year, he's in a big QB competition his second year which he finally wins towards the end of the year, and then dominates his sophomore year, winning the Conference Player of the Year.  After another great season, he goes into his senior year with a chance to break all kinds of NCAA records, but ends up tearing his ACL.  After being granted a sixth year by the NCAA, he breaks those records and goes on to lead his undermanned team to a an undefeated season by directing the top scoring offense in the nation, and puts his team in a position to make a BCS Bowl for the first time I assume.  All that stands in their way is the Conference USA Championship Game at Southern Miss, so the QB takes his heavily favored squad up against the Golden Eagles and THEY GET FUCKING LIT UP like the Vikings in an NFC Championship Game.  Seriously, Houston got destroyed and scored the fewest points they have all year.  Nice job, Keenum.  Enjoy the CFL.


So anyway the Gophers play Appalachian State Tuesday night and yawn.  App State is actually supposed to be one of the best teams in the Southern Conference, but unfortunately this isn't the same SoCon from back when Davidson was Tournament Killer and Charleston was upsetting people all over the place, and the rest of the conference has become cupcake city.  In fact, the SoCon ranks as one of the handful of worst conference in America according to kenpom.com (23rd out of 32), and its best win outside of those two schools is Elon's upset of a terrible South Carolina team.

So yeah, a mid-tier team from a low tier conference.  Great.  The Mountaineers are 4-3 this year, but two of those wins are over non-D1 schools and the other two were versus Tennessee Tech and Greensboro.  Also the best team they've played this year is East Carolina who is awful and they beat Appalachian State by 20.  The only exciting part about the game, other than watching the Gophers of course, is that the Mountaineers do have preseason SoCon Player of the Year candidate Omar Carter, a senior guard whose scoring average so far this year would be his career low since he suddenly can't shoot anymore.  Although he has gone 15-26 shooting the past two games, so maybe he's on his way back.  I could go on and describe several other decent players, but who cares?  Cupcake city, baby.

Gophers 80, Mountaineers 53

Also I had a whole conversation with Bear about the Gophers and how good "Rodney White" has looked recently and he didn't realize until he sent me an email this morning that he had the name wrong lololololol.

NCAA Basketball Preview - The Atlantic 10

Here's what you're going to want to do - watch "New Girl" from Fox.  It debuted on Tuesday night and I think me and the missus laughed more than we've ever laughed at the first episode of anything, and that includes Parks and Rec.  It stars one of my big crushes, Zooey Deschanel, and although she's always been quirky funny she really, truly can carry a show as the funny lead and she knocks it out of the park here.  Then there's three dumb guys who she moves in with who I've never heard of but actually do an adequate job.

So watch it.  It's on every Tuesday at 8pm, and they're replaying the pilot on Saturday October 1st so do it.  If you've ever trusted my judgement about anything, watch this show.  But also know that I have dibs on Zooey.  I've been into her since her Almost Famous and The Good Girl, so back off.  I have dibs on her sister too.

I have a lot of dibs.  Anyways, here comes the A-10!!!!!

1.  XAVIER MUSKETEERS.  Tu Holloway (who sounded cooler when he was going by Terrell) is back after nearly jumping to the NBA so that pretty much automatically makes Xavier the favorite because he's so retardedly good, but he's got plenty of help.  Mark Lyons joins him in the backcourt and nearly doubled his scoring average last year all the way up to 13.6, and Kenny Frease is back to man the middle.  All of which means X has their top three scorers back.   They're also adding three top 140 recruits including Dezmine Wells, a SF who ranked #76 on Rivals list and is all but guaranteed to be the next Musketeer superstar.  They also imported Travis Taylor who is not a crappy receiver from Florida but is in fact a power forward who transferred from Monmouth where he lit it up for nearly 18 points per game.  I'm comfortable at this point saying Xavier doesn't rebuild, they just reload.

2.  TEMPLE OWLS.  If the back court is what really makes good teams good then Temple is off to a good start despite losing power forward Lavoy Allen who averaged 12 and 9 last year.  Back is SG Ramone Moore, last year's leading scorer at over 15 per game, as well as Juan Fernandez.  You remember Fernandez as the hipster pot head looking guy who killed Talor Battle with his off-balance miracle shot in the NCAA Tournament.  He's super annoying to look at, really irritating to watch, and really his numbers aren't even that great and he can't really shoot, but somehow he has that annoying knack for making the plays when they're needed. 

3.  ST LOUIS BILLIKENS.  I suppose it didn't make sense to think Rick Majerus would turn St. Louis around super fastly but I did because I love that fat-ass.  But after a good year two seasons ago (11-5 A-10) they regressed hard last year, finishing at 6-10 last year, not in small part because their two best players - Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell - missed all of last season because of sexual assault charges.  Both were cleared - Reed bolted for the NBA (undrafted, nice job genius), but getting Mitchell back is huge for a Billiken team that returns all five starters and their 8 top scorers from last season.  If this isn't the year St. Louis makes the NCAA Tournament it's probably time to just end the program all together.  Maybe all the other A-10 coaches could have fun little luau where they roast Majerus for food and invite A.C. Slater and it would be fun for all.  Except Majerus.

4.  GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS.  GW went an impressive 10-6 in the A-10 last season.  Unfortunately that didn't remotely get them in the conversation for an NCAA bid because they didn't even come close to playing anybody in the non-conference slate and didn't beat any of the league's good teams during conference play.  Still it's a good jumping off point for this season, and with only one starter gone from last year's team and getting back Lasan Kromah, who was second on the team in scoring two years ago as a freshman before missing last year with a foot injury, GW might be in contention to reach the NCAA Tournament.  Tony Taylor is a player of the year candidate, and with a tougher schedule that includes games against Cal, Syracuse, and VCU, they have a shot.

5.  CHARLOTTE 49ERS.  The 49ers return four starters from last year's squad, but I'm not sure that's a good thing.  Last year they couldn't shoot, turned the ball over like crazy, never registered assists, and couldn't play defense.  All that led to a 10-20 record with just 2 conference wins.  There is, however, reason to have some hope because three of those 10 wins came over Xavier, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech, so when things do come together for Charlotte they can play well, it just didn't happen with any regularity last year.  Of those returners, three scored in double figures last year, including their top two assist and steal guys.  If they can shoot a little better, take care of the ball a little better, and play better defense they could be dangerous.  Yes, that's a lot of ifs and I don't know why I believe they'll be better.  Maybe I just like green uniforms.

6.  ST JOE'S HAWKS.   I've seen St. Joe's referenced as a potential A-10 sleeper, but I'm not sure I really see it.  Yes, they only lost one starter and not a very good one at that, but this is also a team that was beaten by the Gophers at home last year so how good can they be?  Still, they have a couple of good guards including Carl Jones who is the third leading returning scorer in the conference with 17 per game, along with sophomore center C.J. Aiken who was ranked the #8 incoming freshman center in the country last season.  Although Aiken is a bit of a project on offense he's already a killer on defense and averaged 3.5 blocks per game last season which led the conference and was second nationally.  So I guess they do have some talent.  But still, the Gophers.

7.  DAYTON FLYERS.  I've spent plenty of time in other A-10 previews talking about how Dayton has terrible fans so I won't rehash that here, especially since this year is going to be a toughie for the Flyers.  Not only did they lose their coach, but they also lost leading scorer Chris Wright to graduation and freshman point guard Juwan Staten, who led the A-10 in assists, decided to transfer after realizing how much Dayton sucked.  They still have Chris Johnson, a guy I really like who is an all-around kind of guy and superior athlete, and PG Kevin Dillard, a transfer from So Ill, led the MVC in assists his sophomore year so he's not a monster step down from Staten, but the talent level has definitely waned in Dayton.  Gregory got out at the right time.

8.  ST BONAVENTURE BONNIES.  What St. Bonnie's has going for them is maybe the best player in the conference in Andrew Nicholson.  What they don't have going for them is everything else.  Nicholson is now a senior, and has gone from a 2-star center from Canada whose only D-I Scholarship offer came from St. Bonnie's to a guy who led the conference in scoring at 22 per game last year.  All he needs is a little help and there's a couple of other returners who averaged in double-figures, but let's be honest St. Bonnie's has never been on tv so who am I kidding trying to write about them?

9.  UMASS MINUTEMEN.  They lose their best player and top scorer in Anthony Gurley, but return everybody else.  The problem is that nobody besides Gurley averaged more than 8.5 points per game, so what you're left with is nine different players who averaged between 4.3 and 8.5 points per game last year, and I have no idea how that's going to shake itself out.  If multiple players step up their game and become double digit scorers and all-conference types they could finish significantly higher than this.  On the other hand, if nobody takes a leap and improves from last season they could be bottom dwellers.  Obviously, I think neither of those things will happen and they'll just float here at #9.  Go me!

10.  DUQUESNE DUKES.  The Dukes chance to shine was last year, but they came up a bit short.  After starting the conference season 8-0, Duquesne limped to the finish at 2-6 and then were dropped in the first round of the A-10 tourney by crappy St. Joe's and ended up in the CBI since their non-conference resume was basically non-existent.  Now both Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, two of the best players in Duquesne history, are gone and although there's still some talent here they certainly aren't in the same class they were in (or could have been in) last year.  They return three pretty good guards, including A-10 rookie of the year T.J. McConnell, and since they play an extreme uptempo style that's a good start and they should end up ok, but they definitely whiffed on a big opportunity last season. 

11.  RICHMOND SPIDERS.  After reaching the sweet 16 last year and setting a school record for victories, the Spiders have been massacred by graduations, losing four starters who accounted for nearly 70% of the team's scoring last year and over half of their rebounds and assists, including Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper who were both All A-10 first team selections last year.  So yeah, they have a lot of uncertainty going on.  Richmond has begun to establish itself as one of the elite basketball schools in the conference, but it's going to take some big years from unexpected places to keep them there.

12.  FORDHAM RAMS.  The sad thing about Fordham, other than the fact that their win totals have been three, two, and seven the past three years (and those are total wins, not conference wins), is that they actually have one of the best players in the conference in power forward Chris Gaston, who was the only A-10 player to average a double-double at 15.9 points and 11.3 rebounds (4th in the nation).  The problem is he has zero help, so defenses really do nothing other than throw double and triple teams at him and it works because they are terrible at everything, and there's really no reason to think they're going to be much better.  They lose their second leading scorer, but return two other double digit scorers in Branden Frazier (from Dudley Do-Right) and Alberto Estwick.  If either of those guys can take some pressure of Gaston, maybe they could get to a CIT bid.  Aim high.

13.  RHODE ISLAND RAMS.  Remember Jimmy Baron?  The coaches son who played for the Rams a couple of years ago and rained down 8 three-pointers in Cameron and almost single-handedly beat Duke?  He's been gone now for a couple of years, but little brother Billy just transferred in from Virginia and he profiles as a similar player.  Which is good, because most of the excitement left Rhodey after last year with three of their top four scorers, including second team A-10 selection Delroy James.  Joining Baron will be a couple returnees who are also excellent outside shooters and any time a team has a couple of outside threats they can also manage an upset or two, but that's about all the Rams will be good for this year.  

14.  LASALLE EXPLORERS.  When Aaric Murray,  who was ranked as the #35 overall recruit and #5 center in the country coming into school in 2009, it was a huge, huge deal.  Here was a hometown kid from just outside Philly who was going to return the Explorers to the glory days of Lionel Simmons.  Well.  Insert fart sound.  LaSalle went 4-12 and 6-10 in A-10 games the last two years, and although Murray put up good numbers he was also benched for poor effort last season and has now transferred to West Virgina with nary a post-season berth on the record.  With two other double-digit scorers lost to graduation LaSalle finds itself in a position similar to the Minnesota Twins - no hope and no prospects, and one of the worst teams in the country.

Other Previews:
Big 12
ACC

Weekend Review - 02.14.2011

Damn you Turtle Lake.  You win this round.  At least I'm killing it with BetUS’ college basketball predictions so I don't have to worry about moving into the poor house.  At least not yet.  Onto your college hoops report:


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Minnesota Gophers.  Wow.  That was pretty awesome.  Not the loss to Illinois of course, which was pretty disappointing, but I was becoming convinced this team was coming apart at the seams and that they were going to lose to Iowa, sounding the death knell on the season.  Instead, they went out and beat the Hawkeyes soundly by a final margin of 62-45 in a game that wasn't even that close and was never in doubt.  This tells me that the team should be good enough to hang on to their NCAA bid, and hopefully Nolen will come back in March, and then we'll just see what we'll see.

Special shout-outs to Colt Iverson, Rodney Williams, and Maverick Ahanmisi for their play last night.  Iverson looked like a 6-11 point guard in his role in the middle of the Gopher offense against the Iowa zone, consistently finding the open man and helping the team get open shots.  He only ended up with 1 assists but he definitely was a big reason the Gophers shot well and controlled the game.  Williams took over the game for a stretch, showing the actualization of his near limitless potential, even if it was too short-lived.  Finally, Ahanmisi played his best 11 minutes as a collegian, scoring 7 points, dishing 2 assists, and most importantly looking like a legitimate Big Ten point guard.  I'm not sure I'm quite ready to hand over the keys to him for next season, but I'm sold on him as a backup and he might end up pretty good later in his career.

So, yeah, Iowa is a bad team and this win isn't exactly like beating an NCAA tournament team or even an NIT team, but at least we know they aren't in a death spiral here, and should most likely still end up in the dance.  And then hey, who knows, am I right?

2.  Xavier Musketeers.  Huge week for X, which starting off with them beating an NCAA bubble team in Georgia and ended wit them reasserting their A-10 dominance by knocking off Duquesne, the team they were tied with at the top of the conference standings, and they did it at Duquesne's place - whatever it's called and actually I don't even know where Duquesne is.  I'm going to guess Massachusetts.  Anyway, Xavier has overcome a rough start and is starting to round into form.  Either they just needed some time to adjust at the beginning of the year or they really aren't that good - it's just that the A-10 is down this year.  Tread lightly.

3.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Giving Ohio State their first loss will get you a mention here.  And now they're 9-3 in the Big Ten, have basically solidified themselves as the second best team in the conference, and are looking like they're a Sweet 16 team with upside.  Great.  I still hate them.  Seriously, how can they be this good with guys like Tim Jarmusz, Keaton Nankivil, and Mike Bruesewitz as integral cogs?  Bo Ryan is a freaking wizard.  Crap.  I think I accidentally realized I respect him.  Still hate him though.

4.  Pitt Panthers.  It's a wide open year with about 15-20 legit final four contenders, and nearly every team has some pretty severe flaws that could end up knocking them out early.  The one exception I've found is Pitt, a very balanced team who showed some serious moxie this week, winning on the road at both West Virginia and Villanova, the first loss for Nova at home since 2007.  And they did it without leading scorer and point guard Ashton Gibbs.  They're a good offensive team, a good defensive team, they score inside, they score outside, and they have great guards - everything you could want for success in March.  If I didn't hate the Pitt program so much, I'd be a huge fan.  Damn you Carl Krauser. 

5.  St. Johns Red Storm.  I feel like I'm writing about these guys almost every week, but this was another monster week for the resurgent storm, dismantling UCONN at home and then winning a very big bubble implications type of game on the road at Cincinnati.  I don't know exactly where they rank on the bubble and a 14-9 overall record isn't pretty, but a 7-5 Big East record with wins now over Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, and Duke tells me that based on talent this is absolutely an NCAA Tournament team, and an RPI of 20 with a strength of schedule ranked #2 says the same.  They still have two gimmes in home games versus DePaul and South Florida, so at minimum they should end up at 9-9 in conference play.  That's got to be good enough.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Northwestern Wildcats.  They seem to land here almost every week, don't they?  I'm not even sure what else there is to write anymore, but they're just so hard to ignore because jesus.  This week they lost to a bad Michigan team by 9 after allowing 52% shooting by the Wolverines, one of the poorer shooting teams in the conference and that wasn't nearly the more embarrassing loss of the two they registered this week.  They got smoked by Penn State by 24 in a game where they mustered just 41 points in a brick city effort, shooting just 18-52 and 2-21 from three.  Basically they can't shoot or play defense and are 4-9 in the Big Ten, just one game out of the cellar.  I'm not even sure they're a NIT team.  Maybe CBI.  Sorry Loretta8.

2.  Syracuse Orange.  Another team that seems to find it's way into this section quite a bit lately, the Orange had yet another rough week, this time dropping a home game to Georgetown and then losing on the road at Louisville.  That makes them 2-6 now since starting the year at 18-0, and although they aren't really in any danger of missing the NCAA Tournament their seed has slid rapidly, going from a possible #1 to #4 in the latest bracketology.  They have two guaranteed wins in their final five games (DePaul and Rutgers at home), but a quick exit from the Big East tournament could get them down to a #5 and a matchup with a dreaded 12.  If they end up against a team with quick, penetrating guards they're going to be in trouble.  Actually, they're pretty much screwed and I don't see any way they make it out of the first weekend alive.

3.  Missouri Valley Conference.  Guess which conference basically guaranteed that they won't have an at-large team this year?  Assuming you aren't a retard you probably figured out I'm talking about the Missouri Valley.  Wichita State, the conference leader and a team that's 20-5, lost a home game to Southern Illinois, a team that you think is good until you remember that it's actually not 2005 anymore, and Northern Iowa, the third best team in the MVC, lost to Wichita as well as Evansville, continuing a losing streak that starting last week with a loss to Drake.  UNI is definitely out, while Wichita's win over the Panthers keeps them barely hanging on by a string.  They would probably need to win out and then make the MVC Tournament final to have a chance.  Missouri State also has a chance, but they too would need to finish very, very strong.  Looking more and more like a 1-bid league this year, even with a weak bubble and expanded field.


4.  Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles.  The weekend loss to Memphis really puts the Eagles in a bad spot, now a full game back atop the C-USA standings of co-leaders UAB and UTEP, and with only one win this year over an RPI Top 50 team their at large chances are fading.  They still have home matches against both leaders and need to win those games and take care of business against the various other conference also-rans, but road games against UCF and Tulsa aren't going to be easy.  Larry Eustachy has made USM relevant again within the conference, but will need a strong finish to make them relevant on a national level.

5.  Utah State Aggies.  So are we just going to have zero mid-major at-larges this year?  Butler, Gonzaga, and Memphis were all givens in the past but most likely will all have to win their conference tournament, and now Utah State kicked away their chance at a bid on Wednesday by losing to Idaho.  It sucks that they are basically eliminated from at-large consideration since they are 23-3, but it's their own fault.  Their best win out of those 23 is probably their win over Long Beach, who ranks 116 in the RPI and 101 at kenpom.com.  Yes, that's right, Utah State doesn't have a single win over an RPI top 100 foe, and they've only played two (Georgetown and BYU), leading to a ridiculous strength of schedule rank of 157.  They get to play St. Mary's in Bracket Busters coming up here on Saturday which will help, but this loss to Idaho (RPI 156) is extremely damaging.  Like crawling through a tunnel covered with razor wire and sharks.



For those who like Twins talk stick around.  I'm aiming to get a Twins post up here on Tuesday.

Atlantic 10 College Basketball 2010 Preview

1.  Xavier Musketeers.  Take note, Dayton dorks, because this is what you call a dynasty.  I remember last year, I think I picked the Musketeers fourth in the A-10 because of who was graduating, and they went ahead and won the conference, again, and made a nice run in the tournament, again.  This year, they once again look like they might be down with Jordan Crawford off to the NBA, but Terrell Holloway is back and I love that little guy.  His development from out of control spaz as a freshman (think Kevin Clark, any year) to stone cold killer has been fun to see, and now in his junior year this is clearly his team and I can't wait to see if he'll be better than Jake Pullen, or merely as good.  With two other starters back, Mark Lyons and a slimmed down Kenny Frease ready to step in and start, and top25-type recruiting class coming in it wouldn't be a shock at all to see them in the sweet 16 for the fourth straight year.

2.  Temple Owls.  On paper this team is probably better than Xavier, but I learned my lesson last year about doubting the Musketeers.  That said, Temple should easily hit their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, and they are certainly back to a perenially good program now under Fran Dunphy.   The Owls lose leading scorer Ryan Brooks, but have enough pieces in place that it shouldn't hurt them.  Juan Fernandez is an oustanding point guard who I really want to compare to Pepe Sanchez, but that's lazy since they're both hispanic so instead I'll say he reminds me a lot of Greivis Vasquez.  With Lavoy Allen also back to dominate the inside, and last year's A-10 sixth man of the year Ramone Moore ready to slide in for Brooks, they're in great shape.

3.  Richmond Spiders.  Of all the graduating players in the conference, nobody is going to miss their guy more than the Spiders will miss David Gonzalvez.  They still have point guard and A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson back, but he and Gonzalvez formed a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo, averaging 32.4 points between the two of them - 46% of the team's scoring - and were the top two assist and steal guys to boot.  Beyond finding someone to fill in for Gonzalvez, the big key for the season is the continued improvement of PF Justin Harper, who is suddenly getting "potential NBA pick" buzz, as well as if Dan Geriot can get back to close to what he was before he hurt his knee.  He was a double-digit scorer and a beast inside before the injury, but averaged less the 7 points per game last year.  If he is recoverd in year 2 post-surgery, this team goes from a good team to a great team.

4.  St. Louis Billikens.  Majerus's team was one of the youngest in the country last year, but came together and closed strong, finishing 11-5 in the A-10 and denied an NCAA berth due to a very weak non-conference schedule.   This year the schedule has been upgraded along with the expectations, because with their top six scorers back - all of whom were unerclassmen last year - they are in position to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000.  Kwamain Mitchell (16 points, 3 rebs, 3 assists per game), Willie Reed (12 pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks), and Cody Ellis (11 pts, 5 rebs) are a dynamic trio, and the Billikens were one of the toughest defensive teams in the country last year.  Pay attention to their game November 20th vs. Georgia - the result of that one will help give a gauge on how "for real" this team is.  [NOTE:  I have since been informed that Mitchell and Reed have been suspended due to some chick framing them for some kind of sex allegation.  This obviously means that they're screwed.]   

5.  Dayton Flyers.  I've talked about this on here before, but is there a more overrated program than the Flyers?  They continually get praised as if they've accomplished something, but they've only made one NCAA Tournament in the last six years, and they continually underachieve.  Once again this year they'll be built around an overrated power forward who can't stay healthy and a bunch of guards with gigantic question marks surrounded them .  Either way I still have a special place in my heart for Dayton fans, who are almost identical to Packer fans.  They have the same mix of delusion, overconfidence, and entitlement, mixed with a dash of overconfidence and a sprinkle of questionable personal hygiene and mental problems.

6.  Charlotte 49ers.  Interesting team here.  They were cruising towards an NCAA berth last year at 18-5 and 8-1 in conference play before a 1-7 close to the season,  including losses to G. Washington and UMass, left them out of postseason play altogether.  Last year's point guard (Dijuan Harris) is gone and there's some concern about if anybody on the roster can replac ehim, but they return most of last year's team, including the dynamic inside duo of Shamari Spears (16 ppg/6 rpg last year) and Chris Braswell (10 and 9).  New coach Alan Major has a reputation for getting the most out of post players, so this sounds like a good combo to me.  Not like those pizzeria pretzel combos.  Seriously, who thought that one up?  Gross.

7.  Rhode Island Rams.  The Rams might not make the NCAA  Tournament all that often, but they are always a tough, tough, tough matchup, and there's no reason for that not to be the case again this year.  They lose two double-digit scorers from last year's team, but that doesn't mean they aren't still in good shape.  The three returning starters are all good players and give you an excellent balance of a ball-handler (Marquis Jones - 4.1 assists per game, third in A-10), an athletic wing (Delroy James - 13.2ppg, and second on team in 3-pointers despite being 6-8), and a big man in seven-footer Will Martell (8pts, 5 rebs).  Martell needs to improve because his rebounds and blocks are low for a seven-footer and he's the man down low this year.     

 
8.  Duquesne Dukes.  The Dukes return one of the best players you've never heard of in Damian Saunders, a double-double machine who doesn't mind blocking your shot right back in your stupid face if you were dumb enough to bring it to his house.  With four other big-time contributors back, including #2 leading scorer in guard Bill Clark and point guard Eric Evans, this will probably be the best Duquesne team in 30 years, not that it's exactly a huge feat, but you gotta start somewhere.  The Dukes made the NIT two years ago but dropped back into the CBI last season - their first back-to-back postseasons since 1980-1981.  Time to take that next step, boy-os.  Do it for Mike James.

10.  UMass Minutemen.  Leading scorer Ricky Harris is gone and UMass won just twelve games last year, but there is some reason to be optimistic based on what's coming back.   Anthony Gurley, Terrell Vinson, and Freddie Riley are all good all-around wing types who averaged over or close to double-digits in scoring last year and all showed at different times that they are capable of taking over a game against a quality opponent - they just all have to bring that A game at the same time.  If they can find some consistent point guard play (overall UMass had more turnovers than assists) they could finish higher than this.  You could almost call them a sleeper, except they aren't quite good enough.

10.  George Washington Colonials.  GW has ten of last year's twelve contributors back, but one of the guys who is missing is last seasons leading scorer, Damian Hollis, and they weren't exactly world beaters last year, going just 16-13 (6-10 in A10), and it was an empty 16 wins without a single good victory in there anywhere that I could find.  So how do you rate experience coming back, but save a couple of guys, subpar talent?  10th, apparently.

11.  LaSalle Explorers.  If you ever want proof that I'm an idiot, you can look at my picking this team to be one of the top teams in the A-10 last year - probably my biggest whiff ever.  Rodney Green was a superstar and Aaric Murray was a top recruit and I thought they'd surprise.  Well, they did.  They surprised the hell out of me by being a bunch of worthless sucks who sucked.  Now Green is gone, Murray is overrated, and I'll never trust these guys again.  At least until Lionel Simmons II comes to town.

12.  St. Joseph's Hawks.  I don't believe it would be possible to pick a worse time to have a home-and-home with the Hawks, because they were brutal last year and this year ain't fixin' to get much better.  Remember these guys last year?  The team the Gophers beat 97-74 and won just five conference games?  Well, it's basically the same team as last year, except their two best players graduated.  Actually, there is reason for optimism and a good reason to look forward to watching them play, and that's freshman center C.J. Aiken, who was ranked by Rivals as the #8 center who should play immediately.  They also added a couple other solidly ranked, athletic freshman to give them one of the better classes in the conference, that just won't make much of a difference this year.

13.  St. Bonaventure Bonnies.  The good news is that stud big man Andrew Nicholson is back, and last year as a sophomore he was good enough to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field.  Pretty awesome.  The bad news is that Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews (no relation to Eric and Cory) graduated and took over 25% of the team's scoring with them (nearly 50% of the non-Nicholson points) and starting point guard Malcolm Eleby is gone after getting into a fight on-campus.  Why that couldn't have happened to Lawrence Westbrook I'll never know.

14.  Fordham Rams.  This is familiar.  Two years ago Fordham was terrible, but Jio Fontan had a huge year and was the only bright spot.  Then he transferred.  Last year, the Rams were again terrible, but Chris Gaston was a monster, notching 19 double-doubles, and going 30 & 10 three times.  No, he hasn't transferred, but Fordham promises to be awful once again, so he'd have every right to in my book.  Loyalty is admirable, but who wants to play for at team that's won five games the last two season combined.  Yes, combined.  And I mean five total wins, not five conference wins.  It ain't easy being one of the worst offensive and worst defensive teams in the country, Fordham just makes it look easy.


Other Previews:

Other Previews:
Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big East College Basketball 2010 Preview