Showing posts with label Pitt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pitt. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
NCAA Hoops Preview: Teams 59-53
I could sit here and write up some thoughts on the baseball playoffs, but I'm going to save all that jazz for one big post maybe later this week. Instead, here are some more NCAAB Previews, teams #59-#53.
59. NEW MEXICO LOBOS. Losing double-double machine Drew Gordon is going to be tough to handle, but the Lobos get their entire back court back from last season's NCAA team and Alford has turned these guys into kind of a MWC dynasty - or at least in the mix at the top every year. This season will depend largely on just how good Kendall Williams can be. He's had two very good years so far in Albuquerque, and if he can take the next step and become one of the best players in the league they should be back in the running for a league title and/or an at-large bid. Plus Williams is from Ranco Cucamonga and if you don't think that's a fun city name to say then you're probably already dead.
58. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. G-Town loses a ton of talent in three departing starters (their three top scorers last year), including Henry Sims who took over for Greg Monroe as the big man with guard skills. Luckily they've got a heck of a player back in Otto Porter who had a stellar freshman year and now becomes the Hoyas alpha dog. He doesn't have the ball-handling or outside touch that Sims and Monroe displayed, but he is already an excellent passer and smart player with the ball so he could easily develop into that same mold. In the last two seasons the Hoyas have lost all of their big 3 guards and their two best post players so they're going to be looking for somebody to become a true playmaker. If you play fantasy college basketball (TREVOR DON'T READ THIS) look at Markel Starks as a sleeper. He's shown he can be an explosive scorer at times and this season he'll be their #1 perimeter option.
57. LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS. Naturally everyone loved Lehigh beating Duke because Duke is satan and hitler all in one, but Lehigh has the look of a team that isn't done quite yet. They have four of their starters back from last year (their four top scorers) including last year's Patriot League player of the year and hero to all C.J. McCollum (30 pts vs. Duke) as well as Gabe Knutson (17 & 8 vs. Duke). Can a team from the Patriot get an at-large bid? It would be incredibly difficult and I don't think it's ever happened, but maybe this is the year. Although the league RPI will be way down and thus drag Lehigh's down, they will have some chances to pick-up big wins they'll need to have a chance. They open at Baylor, then if they can get past Robert Morris in the Preseason NIT (no sure thing) they would get Pitt and a win their would send them to Madison Square Garden for two more cracks at big-time schools (Michigan, Kansas State, Virginia). They also play North Texas and Quinnipiac who could both end up as RPI Top 100 schools, as could conference foe Bucknell. Win enough of those games and then lose only 1-2 in conference/conf. tournament play? Probably better to win the conference tournament, but watch that Lehigh/Pitt game, could be huge for the little guys.
56. PITT PANTHERS. Hey, speaking of Pitt, here they are. And if you're sick of the Gophers having a terrible non-conference schedule you should get a look at Pitt's. If they don't get to Madison Square Garden that is absolutely brutally bad other than Detroit. I suppose they'll play plenty of good teams in conference play, but man having Bethune-Cookman, Delaware State, and Kennesaw State all on the same schedule should be outlawed. Also it seems Travon Woodall now goes by Tray, which is not as irritating as Terrell Holloway going by Tu, Michael Gilchrist or Maurice Drew adding an extra hyphenated last name, or especially Titus Young adding SR. to the back of his jersey after having a son named Titus, but it's still irritating and I hope Pitt loses every game. I never liked them anyway. Brandin Knight sucked and Carl Krauser was even worse. [NOTE: Somehow I completely missed that Trey Ziegler transferred here from CMU and is eligible this year, so bump them up a few spots.]
55. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Maryland loses leading scorer Terrell Stoglin to, well, not the NBA since he didn't get drafted but to somewhere, but this might be one of those addition by subtraction kind of situations which yes is possible just look here smart guy: (-2)-(-4) = 2 IN YOUR FACE. But what that means for the Terps is that a bunch of guys who are used to standing around watching Stoglin jack shots (38% of shots taken by Maryland last year with him on the floor were his, 3rd highest in the NCAA) are suddenly going to have freedom to play ball and will be like a bunch of college freshman living away from their parents for the first time and will probably go a little nuts. Of course, they're also pretty unproven due to never getting the ball, so Maryland should be a mixed bag this year. Like your mom.
54. UTEP MINERS. I know what you're thinking, and to be honest I'm not really sure why I have UTEP this high either, but I liked watching this team (the couple of times I found them on TV last year) and I think there may be something brewing here. They're a really young team and John Bohannon may be the best center you've never heard of. He made a huge leap from his freshman to sophomore year, and if he does something similar again this season he could be the best center in Conference USA that I can think of right now. They also get their point guard back who was one of the top assisters in the conference and I don't know man. They're young and fun like Kate Upton right now, and the way the team is constructed kind of reminds me of those awesome Memphis teams. Or something. I don't know, but now you're thinking about Kate Upton so it doesn't really matter what I say anymore.
53. TEMPLE OWLS. The Owls lose two thirds of their back court to graduation, but should still contend at the top of the A-10 because returning guard Khalif Wyatt may be the best player in the conference. I also like him because Temple is kind of a consistently successful but boring program, and Wyatt threw a little excitement out there this summer when he was arrested for soliciting a prostitute in Atlantic City. He cooperated and only had to pay a fine and do some community service so he'll back and ready to play, but I can't wait to see some of the signs and hear some nice chants when Temple is on the road. Should be fun.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Monday Musings
So dumb. I actually had a Week in Review about 90% done and all typed up. I saved it before bed last night with the intent of finishing it off this morning, except when I went there it was gone. Completely gone. So I'm just going to do this thing instead where I type stuff that you end up reading for some reason.
- Good win for the Gophers Sunday winning in Penn State. It's not so much a great win because Penn State is any good (spoiler: they aren't), but more because losing at PSU right after rescuing their season would be exactly the kind of thing the Gophers would do. Also I should say that when I say the Gophers "rescued" their season after beating Indiana all I mean by that is they shifted the season from a epic flameout to what will probably end up being a disappointing season, but they still have a chance to do something at least. So yeah, I'm not exactly throwing a party just yet but at least they managed to beat Penn State. God I was so convinced they were going to lose. Thank god I'm stupid.
Now the Gophers are 2-4 in Big 10 play, and at an absolute minimum they're going to need to get to 9 wins to even get within sniffing distance of an NCAA bid, especially because Virginia Tech - their one hope for a quality out of conference win - keeps sucking. With 12 games to go that means they need to win at least seven more. Here are the easy wins left on the schedule: Nebraska at home. That's it. Everything else is going to at least be a little tough; HOME: Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, and Nebraska. AWAY: Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. Yikes. They're gonna be favored in what, 3 games? Maybe four? It's long ass road to those 9 wins, and I'm not even sure 9 would get there. Looking like another long year. I need a vacation.
- Elsewhere in a rare move the Twins made that I actually like they signed reliever Joel Zumaya to a one year deal for $800k (with incentives that can double that), but it's a non-guaranteed deal so if his elbow (which you may remember exploded in a game against the Twins) isn't all the way back they can just cut him easy peasy lemon squeezy. Good deal.
He's been hurt a lot since bursting on the scene in his rookie year of 2006 - he hasn't thrown more than 39 innings in a season since then - but if he can somehow stay healthy he could end up being a real bargain. Zumaya has always been a flamethrower (his average fastball for his career has been 98.5 mph, topping at an average of 99 his last two years and he's struck out a batter an inning for his career) and like many of that ilk he's struggled with his control. 2010, however, was different. Although he was still throwing hard and still striking people out he also had gotten the wildness under control, slicing his walk rate basically in half and was developing into a dominant reliever pre-injury. Big fan of the signing.
- Sticking with baseball, why the hell would you trade a 23-year old pitcher who already has one of the best fastballs in the league and has already proven himself to be a #2 type pitcher and if he ever fully developed a second pitch he could end up a full on ace. I know Jesus Montero is thought to be one of the best hitting prospects in baseball and he definitely hit well when he was up with the Yankees last season but it was just 69 plate appearances and how is that all the Mariners got for Michael Pineda?
If Seattle was dead set on trading Pineda and his 171 high quality innings Montero would have been a nice centerpiece to the deal, but there should have been at least a couple more prospects thrown in. Now Seattle has a nice middle of the order future with Dustin Ackley, Montero, and Justin Smoak but they're pitching is suddenly pretty thin again behind Felix. And the Yankee rotation just went from crazy shaky to Sabathia, Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda (who they signed like, 3 minutes after making this trade), Ivan Nova (who finished ahead of Pineda in the ROY voting last year), and their choice of Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, or A.J. Burnett. You know the worst part? And of those three pitchers the Yankees get to choose from as their #5 would be the Twins' ace. I'm going to go lick a car battery now.
- No matter how disappointing the Gophers' hoops season might be to you at least it's not as bad as what's going on with Pitt. The Panthers have been dominant in their own way over the last several seasons and were expecting more of the same this year, starting the year ranked #11, but things haven't exactly gone according to plan. An 0-3 week with a 20 point home loss to Rutgers leaves Pitt in dead last in the Big East at 0-6 and currently riding a 7-game losing streak that started with a home loss to Wagner. Wagner! There's no doubt the Gophers' season has been a bit of a disappointment but it's nothing like what Pitt fans are going through. This year Pitt is hands down the most disappointing team in the NCAA and it isn't remotely close. They're just like The Phantom Menace.
- What's more sweeter than a Packer season ending early? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Suck it, Packers.
- Good win for the Gophers Sunday winning in Penn State. It's not so much a great win because Penn State is any good (spoiler: they aren't), but more because losing at PSU right after rescuing their season would be exactly the kind of thing the Gophers would do. Also I should say that when I say the Gophers "rescued" their season after beating Indiana all I mean by that is they shifted the season from a epic flameout to what will probably end up being a disappointing season, but they still have a chance to do something at least. So yeah, I'm not exactly throwing a party just yet but at least they managed to beat Penn State. God I was so convinced they were going to lose. Thank god I'm stupid.
Now the Gophers are 2-4 in Big 10 play, and at an absolute minimum they're going to need to get to 9 wins to even get within sniffing distance of an NCAA bid, especially because Virginia Tech - their one hope for a quality out of conference win - keeps sucking. With 12 games to go that means they need to win at least seven more. Here are the easy wins left on the schedule: Nebraska at home. That's it. Everything else is going to at least be a little tough; HOME: Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, and Nebraska. AWAY: Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. Yikes. They're gonna be favored in what, 3 games? Maybe four? It's long ass road to those 9 wins, and I'm not even sure 9 would get there. Looking like another long year. I need a vacation.
- Elsewhere in a rare move the Twins made that I actually like they signed reliever Joel Zumaya to a one year deal for $800k (with incentives that can double that), but it's a non-guaranteed deal so if his elbow (which you may remember exploded in a game against the Twins) isn't all the way back they can just cut him easy peasy lemon squeezy. Good deal.
He's been hurt a lot since bursting on the scene in his rookie year of 2006 - he hasn't thrown more than 39 innings in a season since then - but if he can somehow stay healthy he could end up being a real bargain. Zumaya has always been a flamethrower (his average fastball for his career has been 98.5 mph, topping at an average of 99 his last two years and he's struck out a batter an inning for his career) and like many of that ilk he's struggled with his control. 2010, however, was different. Although he was still throwing hard and still striking people out he also had gotten the wildness under control, slicing his walk rate basically in half and was developing into a dominant reliever pre-injury. Big fan of the signing.
- Sticking with baseball, why the hell would you trade a 23-year old pitcher who already has one of the best fastballs in the league and has already proven himself to be a #2 type pitcher and if he ever fully developed a second pitch he could end up a full on ace. I know Jesus Montero is thought to be one of the best hitting prospects in baseball and he definitely hit well when he was up with the Yankees last season but it was just 69 plate appearances and how is that all the Mariners got for Michael Pineda?
If Seattle was dead set on trading Pineda and his 171 high quality innings Montero would have been a nice centerpiece to the deal, but there should have been at least a couple more prospects thrown in. Now Seattle has a nice middle of the order future with Dustin Ackley, Montero, and Justin Smoak but they're pitching is suddenly pretty thin again behind Felix. And the Yankee rotation just went from crazy shaky to Sabathia, Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda (who they signed like, 3 minutes after making this trade), Ivan Nova (who finished ahead of Pineda in the ROY voting last year), and their choice of Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, or A.J. Burnett. You know the worst part? And of those three pitchers the Yankees get to choose from as their #5 would be the Twins' ace. I'm going to go lick a car battery now.
- No matter how disappointing the Gophers' hoops season might be to you at least it's not as bad as what's going on with Pitt. The Panthers have been dominant in their own way over the last several seasons and were expecting more of the same this year, starting the year ranked #11, but things haven't exactly gone according to plan. An 0-3 week with a 20 point home loss to Rutgers leaves Pitt in dead last in the Big East at 0-6 and currently riding a 7-game losing streak that started with a home loss to Wagner. Wagner! There's no doubt the Gophers' season has been a bit of a disappointment but it's nothing like what Pitt fans are going through. This year Pitt is hands down the most disappointing team in the NCAA and it isn't remotely close. They're just like The Phantom Menace.
- What's more sweeter than a Packer season ending early? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Suck it, Packers.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Week in Review - 1/3/2012
I was considering doing a "Year in Review" post, like similar to the usual week in review but covering the whole year. But then I realized that would require me writing about things that happened like, months ago and years of heavy drinking and glue sniffing have made my memory really similar to that Memento guy and so I said eff it.
And really, other than highlighting an awesome guy and a sucky guy from the Gopher game on Sunday I don't really have much to say about the Gophers' two games this week (partially because I didn't watch most of the Illinois game.) They were expected to lose both games and did, while not embarrassing themselves in the process. What I'm really not sure what to think about are how the team has had chances to win both games and blew them both. If Julian Welch makes two free-throws, or even one, rather than missing the front end of a one-and-one in regulation against Illinois they probably win that game (certainly with two, maybe with one). If Welch makes an open lay-up in the first OT, they might win that game. If Rodney Williams knocks down a wide open three-pointer against Michigan we head to overtime. And if the team gets a good shot instead of a shot clock violation on their second-to-last possession, maybe the result is different (this one I blame on Tubby - nice playcall).
On the one hand, they were in both games and absolutely could have won either or both. On the other hand, they won neither and failed to capitalize on any of the opportunities that came their way. Since they weren't expected to win either game I'm going to choose to make no changes to my opinion of this team as a deeply flawed squad that has enough ability to be in the hunt for an NCAA bid as long as they make no mistakes (like losing to Iowa - suck it, Badgers) and win a game or two that they probably shouldn't. They had chances to steal two of those wins this week and whiffed. Hopefully they find a way to take advantage next time.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Ricky Rubio. Moral victories are for grandmas, sissies, and liberals so I'm really glad they beat the Mavs because I'd feel kind of weird talking up Rubio if the Wolves were sitting at 0-3, but I'd probably do it anyway because oh my god Ricky Rubio is so awesome he makes me crap my pants. Dude sees the court like a mofo. No, seriously, he's incredible. The way his head is always up and some of the angles and passes he sees are un-freaking-real. A lot of point guards can make a great pass hear and there, but I've seriously never seen anyone like this since Magic Johnson. Yeah, you heard me. Name another PG that sees the court the way Magic and Rubio did/do? Stockton? Every single assist he had was on a pick-and-roll and was the exact same pass (you can look it up). Paul? Please. Nash? Poor man's Rubio. He's just so good. We'll see about his defense and shooting in the future, but his passing is like whoa. Plus Ricky's even contagious because I saw Beasley pass up an open jumper to try to find a teammate for a lay-up against the Mavs. No, seriously it happened. Of course he turned it over by throwing it into traffic, but, like self-exploration, it's the thought that counts. [and then tonight, after I wrote this, they go and dominate the Spurs in a game they led wire-to-wire. Can you say playoffs? I'm seeing playoffs.]
2. Alamo Bowl. If you like stuff like defense and tackling you probably hated the Alamo Bowl and are also probably like 60 years old and drink sherry because that was freaking awesome. Baylor 67, Washington 56 in mother effing regulation are you kidding me? A bowl record for yardage, touchdowns, points, and "are you freaking kidding me" moments - how could you not love it? Baylor had three guys rush for over 100 yards, while Washington QB Keith Price waited until this bowl game to have the best game of his career, throwing for 438 yards and 4 TDs and rushing for three more scores. Fun fact: This was just Price's second career game with 300+ yards, second game with 4 TDs and no picks, and those 3 rushing TDs were the first 3 of his career - not his first 3 TD game, the first 3 rushing TDs ever. Just a crazy entertaining game in every way, and anything that gets cranky curmudgeons all up in arms whining about the days of leather helmets and 6-3 ball games ok in my book. Suck it, grandpa. Go listen to some Mellancamp.
3. Trey Burke. Son of a whore is this kid good. I don't even think I can blame the Gophers for this one because so much of what he did was just knocking down shots after creating space for himself. Obviously he's not going to shoot 8-11 from the floor very often, but his 46% from the field so far this year is pretty solid for somebody who takes as many mid-range jumpers as he does, particularly for a freshman, and his 76% free throw accuracy this year says he's probably going to be a very solid shooter who is just going to get better. Which depresses me immensely. You know where Burke was on Rivals Top 100 list? #142. You know where Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman were? #110 and #121. I like some of what I've seen from those two, but they are NO WHERE near Burke. God damn Beilein.
4. Spencer Hawes and Kyle Lowry. This is more representative of any player who is having a crazy good start to the NBA season but Hawes and Lowry stand out to me because Hawes is averaging 12.5 rebs per game so far and Lowry is leading the league with 11.5 assists per game. You know in a shortened season with basically no training camp you're going to see some weird things, and I suppose you could have seen Lowry coming, especially with Aaron Brooks out of the picture, but Hawes? Guy had the look of a career back-up and another big white stiff since he came out of Washington, and is suddenly shooting 68% from the floor after being a 47% career shooter with career highs in points and that massive jump in rebounds (career just 5.6 per game). Did he suddenly get it? Doubtful. It's not like he had anybody blocking his development, so I'm going with fluky fluke.
5. Indiana Hoosiers. How can I possibly leave them off after the beat Ohio State, which now means they've beat the #1 and #2 teams in the country this season (or that's what they were ranked when the Hoosiers beat them). What's most amazing to me is that it's basically the exact same team from the last couple of years when they were terrible. The only real change was the addition of Zeller, and although I'm really impressed with him (as documented somewhere within this stupid blog), he shouldn't be able to just suddenly make a terrible team good. Did Jordan Hulls and Verdell Jones suddenly become good? No, of course not. So I don't know. Maybe Zeller is that good. Maybe Tom Crean deserves a hell of a lot of credit. Maybe it's the whole Victor Oladipo thing. I don't know because I haven't watched Indiana yet this year, but I'm thinking I should probably want to do that.
WHO SUCKED
1. Ralph Sampson. Have you ever seen a big man more passive when he gets the ball on the block? It's like that center in that Simpsons episode about soccer - wing passes to center, center holds it, holds it, holds it. Every time just looking to pass, waiting for the double team. Almost hoping for that second defender like a chubby 17-year old girl staring at the phone just hoping that really cute boy will call (ok fine, chubby dude and cute girl and it was me, you happy now?). I looked at the box score for that Illinois game that I didn't really watch and saw Ralph had 19 shot attempts. 19! How is that even possible? What happened? That's a career high in shot attempts, the first time he's hit double figure attempts this year (you cannot make a big enough question mark/exclamation point combination for that one), and just the second time in his career he's topped 14 FGAs in a game. The last time? Last year against Illinois when he had 17 attempts. I'd say he must like the matchup against Illinois but their front line is completely different this year so you fucking figure it out. I give up on this mess. He now joins Voshon Lenard's senior year, Michael Bauer''s senior year, Rick Rickert, Adam Boone, and Antoine Broxsie on the most disappointing Gophers ever list.
2. Brock Lesnar. As you know if you pay a shockingly creepy amount of attention to the things I write you know that I used to be like way into boxing and am trying to get back into boxing and/or UFC or MMA or whatever you call it. Well I watched it again on Friday night and I saw some fairly entertaining undercards (Nate Ortiz omg hi 2 u) and then the main event happened and oh my Tebow. I wish we were having an actual conversation right now because I'd be all like "did you see that" and you'd either be like "yeah dude wtf" and we'd high five or you'd be like "no dude, what happened" and we'd high five. Basically Lesnar came out, clearly didn't want to be there, looked terrified like a little bunny, got kicked in the ribs, fell down, and instead of trying to get up he just covered his face with his hands either to cry or to try to block the 83 haymakers the other dude landed on his noggin before the ref mercifully ended the fight (maybe both). Then he quit the sport. It was, well, not very impressive to say the least.
3. Wisconsin Badgers. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. OMG. hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Iowa? You lost to Iowa at home? Oh my god so awesome. I knew the Badgers sucked this year. 3-28 from three. Awesome. And Iowa isn't even good at defending against the three-pointer. Nice offense, Bo Ryan. You know it's ok to drift inside the arc from time to time, right? So awesome.
4. Pitt Panthers. For whatever reason, behind Wisconsin, Iowa, and Duke on my most hated basketball schools list sits Pitt, so this pretty epic collapse they have going on is yet another loss, this time to Cincy, and this time at home. That loss follows an embarrassing home loss to Wagner and a road loss at dreadful Notre Dame. You may recall that Pitt started the year ranked 10th and won eleven of their first twelve games, so this is quite the slide. Turns out when you forget how to shoot, don't take care of the basketball, and play terrible defense you end up losing a bunch of games. Hell, at least the Gophers play defense (sort of).
5. Florida Gators. Since I consider Florida to be a legit sleeper to win the NCAA Tournament their loss earlier this week against Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the Big East, was a bit troubling. Both teams are pretty heavily backcourt dependent, so you'd think this would play right into the Gators' hands, but it wasn't meant to be. Although Florida's guards (Brad Beal, Kenny Boynton, Mike Rosario, and Erving Walker) scored a total of 55 points it came on just 18-53 shooting, they turned it over 15 times to just 10 assists, and they allowed Rutgers guards (also four dudes) to score 74 points on 31-57 shooting and they dished 15 assists to just 7 turnovers. I know they say Rutgers gym is a tough place for visiting teams to play (and I only remember that from way back when Quincy Douby was there and the team was decent), but this shakes my confidence in my sleeper team a little. On the other hand it's tough to believe all four of those guards will play poorly on the same night again. It would be like lightning striking twice, although if you ask that dude from The Great Outdoors that happens all the time.
I was gonna put something else here but it's really late and I'm still watching this damn Fiesta Bowl so I don't feel like it anymore.
And really, other than highlighting an awesome guy and a sucky guy from the Gopher game on Sunday I don't really have much to say about the Gophers' two games this week (partially because I didn't watch most of the Illinois game.) They were expected to lose both games and did, while not embarrassing themselves in the process. What I'm really not sure what to think about are how the team has had chances to win both games and blew them both. If Julian Welch makes two free-throws, or even one, rather than missing the front end of a one-and-one in regulation against Illinois they probably win that game (certainly with two, maybe with one). If Welch makes an open lay-up in the first OT, they might win that game. If Rodney Williams knocks down a wide open three-pointer against Michigan we head to overtime. And if the team gets a good shot instead of a shot clock violation on their second-to-last possession, maybe the result is different (this one I blame on Tubby - nice playcall).
On the one hand, they were in both games and absolutely could have won either or both. On the other hand, they won neither and failed to capitalize on any of the opportunities that came their way. Since they weren't expected to win either game I'm going to choose to make no changes to my opinion of this team as a deeply flawed squad that has enough ability to be in the hunt for an NCAA bid as long as they make no mistakes (like losing to Iowa - suck it, Badgers) and win a game or two that they probably shouldn't. They had chances to steal two of those wins this week and whiffed. Hopefully they find a way to take advantage next time.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Ricky Rubio. Moral victories are for grandmas, sissies, and liberals so I'm really glad they beat the Mavs because I'd feel kind of weird talking up Rubio if the Wolves were sitting at 0-3, but I'd probably do it anyway because oh my god Ricky Rubio is so awesome he makes me crap my pants. Dude sees the court like a mofo. No, seriously, he's incredible. The way his head is always up and some of the angles and passes he sees are un-freaking-real. A lot of point guards can make a great pass hear and there, but I've seriously never seen anyone like this since Magic Johnson. Yeah, you heard me. Name another PG that sees the court the way Magic and Rubio did/do? Stockton? Every single assist he had was on a pick-and-roll and was the exact same pass (you can look it up). Paul? Please. Nash? Poor man's Rubio. He's just so good. We'll see about his defense and shooting in the future, but his passing is like whoa. Plus Ricky's even contagious because I saw Beasley pass up an open jumper to try to find a teammate for a lay-up against the Mavs. No, seriously it happened. Of course he turned it over by throwing it into traffic, but, like self-exploration, it's the thought that counts. [and then tonight, after I wrote this, they go and dominate the Spurs in a game they led wire-to-wire. Can you say playoffs? I'm seeing playoffs.]
2. Alamo Bowl. If you like stuff like defense and tackling you probably hated the Alamo Bowl and are also probably like 60 years old and drink sherry because that was freaking awesome. Baylor 67, Washington 56 in mother effing regulation are you kidding me? A bowl record for yardage, touchdowns, points, and "are you freaking kidding me" moments - how could you not love it? Baylor had three guys rush for over 100 yards, while Washington QB Keith Price waited until this bowl game to have the best game of his career, throwing for 438 yards and 4 TDs and rushing for three more scores. Fun fact: This was just Price's second career game with 300+ yards, second game with 4 TDs and no picks, and those 3 rushing TDs were the first 3 of his career - not his first 3 TD game, the first 3 rushing TDs ever. Just a crazy entertaining game in every way, and anything that gets cranky curmudgeons all up in arms whining about the days of leather helmets and 6-3 ball games ok in my book. Suck it, grandpa. Go listen to some Mellancamp.
3. Trey Burke. Son of a whore is this kid good. I don't even think I can blame the Gophers for this one because so much of what he did was just knocking down shots after creating space for himself. Obviously he's not going to shoot 8-11 from the floor very often, but his 46% from the field so far this year is pretty solid for somebody who takes as many mid-range jumpers as he does, particularly for a freshman, and his 76% free throw accuracy this year says he's probably going to be a very solid shooter who is just going to get better. Which depresses me immensely. You know where Burke was on Rivals Top 100 list? #142. You know where Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman were? #110 and #121. I like some of what I've seen from those two, but they are NO WHERE near Burke. God damn Beilein.
4. Spencer Hawes and Kyle Lowry. This is more representative of any player who is having a crazy good start to the NBA season but Hawes and Lowry stand out to me because Hawes is averaging 12.5 rebs per game so far and Lowry is leading the league with 11.5 assists per game. You know in a shortened season with basically no training camp you're going to see some weird things, and I suppose you could have seen Lowry coming, especially with Aaron Brooks out of the picture, but Hawes? Guy had the look of a career back-up and another big white stiff since he came out of Washington, and is suddenly shooting 68% from the floor after being a 47% career shooter with career highs in points and that massive jump in rebounds (career just 5.6 per game). Did he suddenly get it? Doubtful. It's not like he had anybody blocking his development, so I'm going with fluky fluke.
5. Indiana Hoosiers. How can I possibly leave them off after the beat Ohio State, which now means they've beat the #1 and #2 teams in the country this season (or that's what they were ranked when the Hoosiers beat them). What's most amazing to me is that it's basically the exact same team from the last couple of years when they were terrible. The only real change was the addition of Zeller, and although I'm really impressed with him (as documented somewhere within this stupid blog), he shouldn't be able to just suddenly make a terrible team good. Did Jordan Hulls and Verdell Jones suddenly become good? No, of course not. So I don't know. Maybe Zeller is that good. Maybe Tom Crean deserves a hell of a lot of credit. Maybe it's the whole Victor Oladipo thing. I don't know because I haven't watched Indiana yet this year, but I'm thinking I should probably want to do that.
WHO SUCKED
1. Ralph Sampson. Have you ever seen a big man more passive when he gets the ball on the block? It's like that center in that Simpsons episode about soccer - wing passes to center, center holds it, holds it, holds it. Every time just looking to pass, waiting for the double team. Almost hoping for that second defender like a chubby 17-year old girl staring at the phone just hoping that really cute boy will call (ok fine, chubby dude and cute girl and it was me, you happy now?). I looked at the box score for that Illinois game that I didn't really watch and saw Ralph had 19 shot attempts. 19! How is that even possible? What happened? That's a career high in shot attempts, the first time he's hit double figure attempts this year (you cannot make a big enough question mark/exclamation point combination for that one), and just the second time in his career he's topped 14 FGAs in a game. The last time? Last year against Illinois when he had 17 attempts. I'd say he must like the matchup against Illinois but their front line is completely different this year so you fucking figure it out. I give up on this mess. He now joins Voshon Lenard's senior year, Michael Bauer''s senior year, Rick Rickert, Adam Boone, and Antoine Broxsie on the most disappointing Gophers ever list.
2. Brock Lesnar. As you know if you pay a shockingly creepy amount of attention to the things I write you know that I used to be like way into boxing and am trying to get back into boxing and/or UFC or MMA or whatever you call it. Well I watched it again on Friday night and I saw some fairly entertaining undercards (Nate Ortiz omg hi 2 u) and then the main event happened and oh my Tebow. I wish we were having an actual conversation right now because I'd be all like "did you see that" and you'd either be like "yeah dude wtf" and we'd high five or you'd be like "no dude, what happened" and we'd high five. Basically Lesnar came out, clearly didn't want to be there, looked terrified like a little bunny, got kicked in the ribs, fell down, and instead of trying to get up he just covered his face with his hands either to cry or to try to block the 83 haymakers the other dude landed on his noggin before the ref mercifully ended the fight (maybe both). Then he quit the sport. It was, well, not very impressive to say the least.
3. Wisconsin Badgers. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. OMG. hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Iowa? You lost to Iowa at home? Oh my god so awesome. I knew the Badgers sucked this year. 3-28 from three. Awesome. And Iowa isn't even good at defending against the three-pointer. Nice offense, Bo Ryan. You know it's ok to drift inside the arc from time to time, right? So awesome.
4. Pitt Panthers. For whatever reason, behind Wisconsin, Iowa, and Duke on my most hated basketball schools list sits Pitt, so this pretty epic collapse they have going on is yet another loss, this time to Cincy, and this time at home. That loss follows an embarrassing home loss to Wagner and a road loss at dreadful Notre Dame. You may recall that Pitt started the year ranked 10th and won eleven of their first twelve games, so this is quite the slide. Turns out when you forget how to shoot, don't take care of the basketball, and play terrible defense you end up losing a bunch of games. Hell, at least the Gophers play defense (sort of).
5. Florida Gators. Since I consider Florida to be a legit sleeper to win the NCAA Tournament their loss earlier this week against Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the Big East, was a bit troubling. Both teams are pretty heavily backcourt dependent, so you'd think this would play right into the Gators' hands, but it wasn't meant to be. Although Florida's guards (Brad Beal, Kenny Boynton, Mike Rosario, and Erving Walker) scored a total of 55 points it came on just 18-53 shooting, they turned it over 15 times to just 10 assists, and they allowed Rutgers guards (also four dudes) to score 74 points on 31-57 shooting and they dished 15 assists to just 7 turnovers. I know they say Rutgers gym is a tough place for visiting teams to play (and I only remember that from way back when Quincy Douby was there and the team was decent), but this shakes my confidence in my sleeper team a little. On the other hand it's tough to believe all four of those guards will play poorly on the same night again. It would be like lightning striking twice, although if you ask that dude from The Great Outdoors that happens all the time.
I was gonna put something else here but it's really late and I'm still watching this damn Fiesta Bowl so I don't feel like it anymore.
Friday, October 28, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East
Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control. The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State. Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football. This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.
At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand. I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging. Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way? I don't know. It's too confusing. I think it's time to just to to one big conference. Easier that way.
1. UCONN HUSKIES. How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker? Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN. Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2). Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens. Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles. Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.
2. SYRACUSE ORANGE. God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class. He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29). Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more. The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson. If they can, this is a national title contender. If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
3. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one. I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights. It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy. The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.
4. PITT PANTHERS. I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only). They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference. They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt. But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year. Big fan of this kid.
5. VILLANOVA WILDCATS. Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye. The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all. His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys. Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career. I'm so excited.
6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS. Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy? It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year. Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system. The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year. Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor. So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.
7. MARQUETTE EAGLES. Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler. Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year. The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns. Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.
8. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS. Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers. Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season. The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone. Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.
9. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH. Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions. So basically a lot of guessing. One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season. Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y. Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games. And god help you if they actually end up good. God. Help. You.
10. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play. Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone. The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team. There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn.
11. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum. Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers. That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey. If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.
12. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. You remember Anthony Crater? The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)? He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules." I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh. Probably because he seemed like such a douche.
13. SETON HALL PIRATES. I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall. Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere. Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits. Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane. More than usual, I mean.
14. ST. JOHNS RED STORM. They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country. There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one). Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked. I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.
15. PROVIDENCE FRIARS. Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring. He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker. I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence. They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year. Shrug.
16. DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS. Talk about horrible. I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons. I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself. Sure enough, they're 2-52. And it's not fixing to change. Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena. I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess. I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck. You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.
At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand. I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging. Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way? I don't know. It's too confusing. I think it's time to just to to one big conference. Easier that way.
1. UCONN HUSKIES. How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker? Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN. Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2). Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens. Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles. Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.
2. SYRACUSE ORANGE. God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class. He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29). Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more. The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson. If they can, this is a national title contender. If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
3. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one. I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights. It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy. The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.
4. PITT PANTHERS. I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only). They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference. They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt. But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year. Big fan of this kid.
5. VILLANOVA WILDCATS. Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye. The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all. His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys. Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career. I'm so excited.
6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS. Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy? It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year. Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system. The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year. Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor. So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.
7. MARQUETTE EAGLES. Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler. Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year. The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns. Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.
8. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS. Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers. Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season. The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone. Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.
9. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH. Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions. So basically a lot of guessing. One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season. Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y. Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games. And god help you if they actually end up good. God. Help. You.
10. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play. Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone. The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team. There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn.
11. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum. Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers. That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey. If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.
12. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. You remember Anthony Crater? The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)? He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules." I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh. Probably because he seemed like such a douche.
13. SETON HALL PIRATES. I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall. Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere. Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits. Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane. More than usual, I mean.
14. ST. JOHNS RED STORM. They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country. There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one). Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked. I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.
15. PROVIDENCE FRIARS. Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring. He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker. I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence. They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year. Shrug.
16. DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS. Talk about horrible. I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons. I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself. Sure enough, they're 2-52. And it's not fixing to change. Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena. I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess. I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck. You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Some Tough Bracket Questions
I'm just sitting here, sipping away on some Crown Royal - which I won for free at a raffle while supporting a very worthy cause, so it's win/win - and looking at my bracket picks and there are some really tough questions this year. So why not share what I'm agonizing over? Maybe it will give you some insight to pick a better bracket. Maybe somebody can sway me in the comments section. Or maybe I'll just come to a better conclusion by typing it all out. Maybe it will even be entertaining. Or not. Whatever, dude it's free so just read it.
And don't forget to join the DWG bracket pool at this link. Valuable prizes are there to be won.
EAST REGION
The top half here is pretty straight forward if you ask me, particularly the 8/9 game between GMU and Nova, where Mason should kill the sliding Wildcats and Ohio State will have little trouble with anybody, including Kentucky. I think UK was ripe for a first round upset until they were matched against Princeton, who won't be able to remotely keep up with them. The Princeton offense is cute and can work in some instances, but Kentucky is too athletic and too fast. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers keep in close for a half, but Kentucky wins hands down.
The bottom half, however, is a mess for me because both second round games are tough. Syracuse has been both good and bad this year, however what they've had the most trouble with is teams with good, penetrating guards - which exactly what Xavier bases its offense on, particularly Tu Holloway. On the other hand, Xavier hasn't beaten anybody out of conference play - look at their schedule, they've missed on every chance to get a good win. But on the third hand, they did dominate the A-10, for whatever that's worth.
The other game, UNC vs. Washington, is going to be an absolute circus ball barnburner. Washington is a much better team than they're 7 seed, but unfortunately when circus ball goes bad it goes bad in a hurry. Carolina on the other hand snagged a two thanks to a late run through the ACC, but looked pretty bad in their ACC Tournament games. Is Harrison Barnes about to make the leap on the biggest stage or can Justin Holiday shut him down? Can Kendall Marshall run with Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas)? Is Terrence Ross's emergence in the Pac-10 Tournament a real thing or a fluky blip through a mediocre season? Does Washington have enough skilled bigs to slow down an emerging Tyler Zeller and rebounding machine John Henson? And can either of them stop Matthew Bryan-Amaning?
That's the game where I'm having the biggest issue, because whoever wins that is my elite 8 team opposite Ohio State. Putting a seven seed there might be a recipe for disaster, but like I said I don't think Washington is talented like a 7, more like a 3 or 4. In a wide open tournament they could make a big run. In any case, that section of the bracket is without question the most talented and hardest to pick.
WEST REGION
One of the toughest first round games here for me in Oakland vs. Texas. I was convinced I was going to pick Oakland in their first round match up, because their entire season looks like a run-up to a first round upset: tough non-conference schedule with a bunch of misses, easy run through the conference, an NBA player and another dynamic scorer. And then they got Texas. Texas, who on talent should not be a 4, but more like a 3 or even a 2. Texas, who is equally capable of flaming out and could easily lose not just to Oakland but could even lose to a 16 seed. I just don't know. If Texas does get passed Oakland, however, they'll beat both Arizona and Duke. Book it.
The bottom of the bracket is pretty straight forward other than the Cincy/Mizzou game but who really cares because neither will get through UCONN. Until the sweet 16 matchup between UCONN and San Diego State, that's about as tough as it gets. I don't know if I believe in UCONN, despite that run through the Big East Tournament. Hard to pick against them, though, even if I'm a big SDSU guy. Either way the winner of that game is your final four team, whether they end up having to beat Duke or Texas.
SOUTHEAST REGION
This is without a doubt the biggest mess of a region, at least for me, because other than Pitt winning this entire region, a lock, I've changed the outcome of basically every other game ten times. For some reason I'm having trouble picking Belmont over Wisconsin even though my entire plan was to pick Belmont over anybody because they play so similarly. I also want to pick Utah State over K-State because I think that's a perfect matchup for USU - an undisciplined, mediocrely coached team prone to underachieving - but they haven't beaten anybody this year and I can't stop thinking about how last year's team could keep up with Texas A&M athletically, and this year's team is probably less athletic while K-State is way beyond last year's A&M.
At the bottom here it's stunning that Florida is a two seed, and they could run all the way to the elite 8 or they could get dropped in the first round if their guards aren't shooting well. St. Johns might be the toughest team but just lost leading rebounder and third leading scorer DJ Kennedy to a knee injury. Everybody knows about Jimmer and BYU, but what can you expect from a team who just booted their best interior player for getting some stank on his hang down? Then there's Michigan State who has struggled all year but hell it's Michigan State. This year's version actually looks worse than ever, but I'm pretty sure we said that last year. And maybe the year before. I just don't know.
This whole region is a complete mess for me right now. The only thing I'm remotely sure of is that Pitt is winning it. Other than that, anything else could happen. Hell I could see Gonzaga getting to the elite 8. And, just to throw a little more confusion your way, Old Dominion is absolutely the worst possible second round matchup for Pitt, and as sure as I sound about Pitt winning it wouldn't remotely surprise me if ODU wins. Crazy year.
SOUTHWEST REGION
This is the region I'm most confident in. Kansas is a very good team that's also very vulnerable, but fortunately for them they don't face a team that can beat them until Notre Dame in the elite 8. Louisville is a good team that will get to sweet 16 and I wanted to pick them to beat the Jayhawks, but they just aren't a good enough team to do it. I like their guards but neither Knowles or Siva is the type to dominate a game and I don't think they have the interior guys to handle the Morrisisis's, so KU moves on.
In the bottom half the toughest game to pick is Georgetown vs. Purdue. The Hoyas were looking very Final Four sleeperish but faded hard once Chris Wright went out with a broken hand. He's supposed to be back for the tournament (and it's his non-shooting hand) but who knows how it will affect him? The game is in Chicago as well, which settled the coin flip for me and convinced me to push Purdue through to the Sweet 16. Not that it really matters, because either team loses to Notre Dame. Both the Irish and the Jayhawks could have been vulnerable to the right (wrong?) team, but both caught a break and are on a collision course to the Elite 8. That will be a great game, and I see the Notre Dame pulling it out because Kansas has to choke somewhere.
I feel better now. I know what I'm going to do. Go ahead and prove you're smarter than me. And forward the link on to as many people as you want. I'm still going to win. And then I get to keep all the prizes.
SUCKA MC!
And don't forget to join the DWG bracket pool at this link. Valuable prizes are there to be won.
EAST REGION
The top half here is pretty straight forward if you ask me, particularly the 8/9 game between GMU and Nova, where Mason should kill the sliding Wildcats and Ohio State will have little trouble with anybody, including Kentucky. I think UK was ripe for a first round upset until they were matched against Princeton, who won't be able to remotely keep up with them. The Princeton offense is cute and can work in some instances, but Kentucky is too athletic and too fast. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers keep in close for a half, but Kentucky wins hands down.
The bottom half, however, is a mess for me because both second round games are tough. Syracuse has been both good and bad this year, however what they've had the most trouble with is teams with good, penetrating guards - which exactly what Xavier bases its offense on, particularly Tu Holloway. On the other hand, Xavier hasn't beaten anybody out of conference play - look at their schedule, they've missed on every chance to get a good win. But on the third hand, they did dominate the A-10, for whatever that's worth.
The other game, UNC vs. Washington, is going to be an absolute circus ball barnburner. Washington is a much better team than they're 7 seed, but unfortunately when circus ball goes bad it goes bad in a hurry. Carolina on the other hand snagged a two thanks to a late run through the ACC, but looked pretty bad in their ACC Tournament games. Is Harrison Barnes about to make the leap on the biggest stage or can Justin Holiday shut him down? Can Kendall Marshall run with Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas)? Is Terrence Ross's emergence in the Pac-10 Tournament a real thing or a fluky blip through a mediocre season? Does Washington have enough skilled bigs to slow down an emerging Tyler Zeller and rebounding machine John Henson? And can either of them stop Matthew Bryan-Amaning?
That's the game where I'm having the biggest issue, because whoever wins that is my elite 8 team opposite Ohio State. Putting a seven seed there might be a recipe for disaster, but like I said I don't think Washington is talented like a 7, more like a 3 or 4. In a wide open tournament they could make a big run. In any case, that section of the bracket is without question the most talented and hardest to pick.
WEST REGION
One of the toughest first round games here for me in Oakland vs. Texas. I was convinced I was going to pick Oakland in their first round match up, because their entire season looks like a run-up to a first round upset: tough non-conference schedule with a bunch of misses, easy run through the conference, an NBA player and another dynamic scorer. And then they got Texas. Texas, who on talent should not be a 4, but more like a 3 or even a 2. Texas, who is equally capable of flaming out and could easily lose not just to Oakland but could even lose to a 16 seed. I just don't know. If Texas does get passed Oakland, however, they'll beat both Arizona and Duke. Book it.
The bottom of the bracket is pretty straight forward other than the Cincy/Mizzou game but who really cares because neither will get through UCONN. Until the sweet 16 matchup between UCONN and San Diego State, that's about as tough as it gets. I don't know if I believe in UCONN, despite that run through the Big East Tournament. Hard to pick against them, though, even if I'm a big SDSU guy. Either way the winner of that game is your final four team, whether they end up having to beat Duke or Texas.
SOUTHEAST REGION
This is without a doubt the biggest mess of a region, at least for me, because other than Pitt winning this entire region, a lock, I've changed the outcome of basically every other game ten times. For some reason I'm having trouble picking Belmont over Wisconsin even though my entire plan was to pick Belmont over anybody because they play so similarly. I also want to pick Utah State over K-State because I think that's a perfect matchup for USU - an undisciplined, mediocrely coached team prone to underachieving - but they haven't beaten anybody this year and I can't stop thinking about how last year's team could keep up with Texas A&M athletically, and this year's team is probably less athletic while K-State is way beyond last year's A&M.
At the bottom here it's stunning that Florida is a two seed, and they could run all the way to the elite 8 or they could get dropped in the first round if their guards aren't shooting well. St. Johns might be the toughest team but just lost leading rebounder and third leading scorer DJ Kennedy to a knee injury. Everybody knows about Jimmer and BYU, but what can you expect from a team who just booted their best interior player for getting some stank on his hang down? Then there's Michigan State who has struggled all year but hell it's Michigan State. This year's version actually looks worse than ever, but I'm pretty sure we said that last year. And maybe the year before. I just don't know.
This whole region is a complete mess for me right now. The only thing I'm remotely sure of is that Pitt is winning it. Other than that, anything else could happen. Hell I could see Gonzaga getting to the elite 8. And, just to throw a little more confusion your way, Old Dominion is absolutely the worst possible second round matchup for Pitt, and as sure as I sound about Pitt winning it wouldn't remotely surprise me if ODU wins. Crazy year.
SOUTHWEST REGION
This is the region I'm most confident in. Kansas is a very good team that's also very vulnerable, but fortunately for them they don't face a team that can beat them until Notre Dame in the elite 8. Louisville is a good team that will get to sweet 16 and I wanted to pick them to beat the Jayhawks, but they just aren't a good enough team to do it. I like their guards but neither Knowles or Siva is the type to dominate a game and I don't think they have the interior guys to handle the Morrisisis's, so KU moves on.
In the bottom half the toughest game to pick is Georgetown vs. Purdue. The Hoyas were looking very Final Four sleeperish but faded hard once Chris Wright went out with a broken hand. He's supposed to be back for the tournament (and it's his non-shooting hand) but who knows how it will affect him? The game is in Chicago as well, which settled the coin flip for me and convinced me to push Purdue through to the Sweet 16. Not that it really matters, because either team loses to Notre Dame. Both the Irish and the Jayhawks could have been vulnerable to the right (wrong?) team, but both caught a break and are on a collision course to the Elite 8. That will be a great game, and I see the Notre Dame pulling it out because Kansas has to choke somewhere.
I feel better now. I know what I'm going to do. Go ahead and prove you're smarter than me. And forward the link on to as many people as you want. I'm still going to win. And then I get to keep all the prizes.
SUCKA MC!
Monday, February 14, 2011
Weekend Review - 02.14.2011
Damn you Turtle Lake. You win this round. At least I'm killing it with BetUS’ college basketball predictions so I don't have to worry about moving into the poor house. At least not yet. Onto your college hoops report:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Minnesota Gophers. Wow. That was pretty awesome. Not the loss to Illinois of course, which was pretty disappointing, but I was becoming convinced this team was coming apart at the seams and that they were going to lose to Iowa, sounding the death knell on the season. Instead, they went out and beat the Hawkeyes soundly by a final margin of 62-45 in a game that wasn't even that close and was never in doubt. This tells me that the team should be good enough to hang on to their NCAA bid, and hopefully Nolen will come back in March, and then we'll just see what we'll see.
Special shout-outs to Colt Iverson, Rodney Williams, and Maverick Ahanmisi for their play last night. Iverson looked like a 6-11 point guard in his role in the middle of the Gopher offense against the Iowa zone, consistently finding the open man and helping the team get open shots. He only ended up with 1 assists but he definitely was a big reason the Gophers shot well and controlled the game. Williams took over the game for a stretch, showing the actualization of his near limitless potential, even if it was too short-lived. Finally, Ahanmisi played his best 11 minutes as a collegian, scoring 7 points, dishing 2 assists, and most importantly looking like a legitimate Big Ten point guard. I'm not sure I'm quite ready to hand over the keys to him for next season, but I'm sold on him as a backup and he might end up pretty good later in his career.
So, yeah, Iowa is a bad team and this win isn't exactly like beating an NCAA tournament team or even an NIT team, but at least we know they aren't in a death spiral here, and should most likely still end up in the dance. And then hey, who knows, am I right?
2. Xavier Musketeers. Huge week for X, which starting off with them beating an NCAA bubble team in Georgia and ended wit them reasserting their A-10 dominance by knocking off Duquesne, the team they were tied with at the top of the conference standings, and they did it at Duquesne's place - whatever it's called and actually I don't even know where Duquesne is. I'm going to guess Massachusetts. Anyway, Xavier has overcome a rough start and is starting to round into form. Either they just needed some time to adjust at the beginning of the year or they really aren't that good - it's just that the A-10 is down this year. Tread lightly.
3. Wisconsin Badgers. Giving Ohio State their first loss will get you a mention here. And now they're 9-3 in the Big Ten, have basically solidified themselves as the second best team in the conference, and are looking like they're a Sweet 16 team with upside. Great. I still hate them. Seriously, how can they be this good with guys like Tim Jarmusz, Keaton Nankivil, and Mike Bruesewitz as integral cogs? Bo Ryan is a freaking wizard. Crap. I think I accidentally realized I respect him. Still hate him though.
4. Pitt Panthers. It's a wide open year with about 15-20 legit final four contenders, and nearly every team has some pretty severe flaws that could end up knocking them out early. The one exception I've found is Pitt, a very balanced team who showed some serious moxie this week, winning on the road at both West Virginia and Villanova, the first loss for Nova at home since 2007. And they did it without leading scorer and point guard Ashton Gibbs. They're a good offensive team, a good defensive team, they score inside, they score outside, and they have great guards - everything you could want for success in March. If I didn't hate the Pitt program so much, I'd be a huge fan. Damn you Carl Krauser.
5. St. Johns Red Storm. I feel like I'm writing about these guys almost every week, but this was another monster week for the resurgent storm, dismantling UCONN at home and then winning a very big bubble implications type of game on the road at Cincinnati. I don't know exactly where they rank on the bubble and a 14-9 overall record isn't pretty, but a 7-5 Big East record with wins now over Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, and Duke tells me that based on talent this is absolutely an NCAA Tournament team, and an RPI of 20 with a strength of schedule ranked #2 says the same. They still have two gimmes in home games versus DePaul and South Florida, so at minimum they should end up at 9-9 in conference play. That's got to be good enough.
WHO SUCKED
1. Northwestern Wildcats. They seem to land here almost every week, don't they? I'm not even sure what else there is to write anymore, but they're just so hard to ignore because jesus. This week they lost to a bad Michigan team by 9 after allowing 52% shooting by the Wolverines, one of the poorer shooting teams in the conference and that wasn't nearly the more embarrassing loss of the two they registered this week. They got smoked by Penn State by 24 in a game where they mustered just 41 points in a brick city effort, shooting just 18-52 and 2-21 from three. Basically they can't shoot or play defense and are 4-9 in the Big Ten, just one game out of the cellar. I'm not even sure they're a NIT team. Maybe CBI. Sorry Loretta8.
2. Syracuse Orange. Another team that seems to find it's way into this section quite a bit lately, the Orange had yet another rough week, this time dropping a home game to Georgetown and then losing on the road at Louisville. That makes them 2-6 now since starting the year at 18-0, and although they aren't really in any danger of missing the NCAA Tournament their seed has slid rapidly, going from a possible #1 to #4 in the latest bracketology. They have two guaranteed wins in their final five games (DePaul and Rutgers at home), but a quick exit from the Big East tournament could get them down to a #5 and a matchup with a dreaded 12. If they end up against a team with quick, penetrating guards they're going to be in trouble. Actually, they're pretty much screwed and I don't see any way they make it out of the first weekend alive.
3. Missouri Valley Conference. Guess which conference basically guaranteed that they won't have an at-large team this year? Assuming you aren't a retard you probably figured out I'm talking about the Missouri Valley. Wichita State, the conference leader and a team that's 20-5, lost a home game to Southern Illinois, a team that you think is good until you remember that it's actually not 2005 anymore, and Northern Iowa, the third best team in the MVC, lost to Wichita as well as Evansville, continuing a losing streak that starting last week with a loss to Drake. UNI is definitely out, while Wichita's win over the Panthers keeps them barely hanging on by a string. They would probably need to win out and then make the MVC Tournament final to have a chance. Missouri State also has a chance, but they too would need to finish very, very strong. Looking more and more like a 1-bid league this year, even with a weak bubble and expanded field.
4. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. The weekend loss to Memphis really puts the Eagles in a bad spot, now a full game back atop the C-USA standings of co-leaders UAB and UTEP, and with only one win this year over an RPI Top 50 team their at large chances are fading. They still have home matches against both leaders and need to win those games and take care of business against the various other conference also-rans, but road games against UCF and Tulsa aren't going to be easy. Larry Eustachy has made USM relevant again within the conference, but will need a strong finish to make them relevant on a national level.
5. Utah State Aggies. So are we just going to have zero mid-major at-larges this year? Butler, Gonzaga, and Memphis were all givens in the past but most likely will all have to win their conference tournament, and now Utah State kicked away their chance at a bid on Wednesday by losing to Idaho. It sucks that they are basically eliminated from at-large consideration since they are 23-3, but it's their own fault. Their best win out of those 23 is probably their win over Long Beach, who ranks 116 in the RPI and 101 at kenpom.com. Yes, that's right, Utah State doesn't have a single win over an RPI top 100 foe, and they've only played two (Georgetown and BYU), leading to a ridiculous strength of schedule rank of 157. They get to play St. Mary's in Bracket Busters coming up here on Saturday which will help, but this loss to Idaho (RPI 156) is extremely damaging. Like crawling through a tunnel covered with razor wire and sharks.
For those who like Twins talk stick around. I'm aiming to get a Twins post up here on Tuesday.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Minnesota Gophers. Wow. That was pretty awesome. Not the loss to Illinois of course, which was pretty disappointing, but I was becoming convinced this team was coming apart at the seams and that they were going to lose to Iowa, sounding the death knell on the season. Instead, they went out and beat the Hawkeyes soundly by a final margin of 62-45 in a game that wasn't even that close and was never in doubt. This tells me that the team should be good enough to hang on to their NCAA bid, and hopefully Nolen will come back in March, and then we'll just see what we'll see.
Special shout-outs to Colt Iverson, Rodney Williams, and Maverick Ahanmisi for their play last night. Iverson looked like a 6-11 point guard in his role in the middle of the Gopher offense against the Iowa zone, consistently finding the open man and helping the team get open shots. He only ended up with 1 assists but he definitely was a big reason the Gophers shot well and controlled the game. Williams took over the game for a stretch, showing the actualization of his near limitless potential, even if it was too short-lived. Finally, Ahanmisi played his best 11 minutes as a collegian, scoring 7 points, dishing 2 assists, and most importantly looking like a legitimate Big Ten point guard. I'm not sure I'm quite ready to hand over the keys to him for next season, but I'm sold on him as a backup and he might end up pretty good later in his career.
So, yeah, Iowa is a bad team and this win isn't exactly like beating an NCAA tournament team or even an NIT team, but at least we know they aren't in a death spiral here, and should most likely still end up in the dance. And then hey, who knows, am I right?
2. Xavier Musketeers. Huge week for X, which starting off with them beating an NCAA bubble team in Georgia and ended wit them reasserting their A-10 dominance by knocking off Duquesne, the team they were tied with at the top of the conference standings, and they did it at Duquesne's place - whatever it's called and actually I don't even know where Duquesne is. I'm going to guess Massachusetts. Anyway, Xavier has overcome a rough start and is starting to round into form. Either they just needed some time to adjust at the beginning of the year or they really aren't that good - it's just that the A-10 is down this year. Tread lightly.
3. Wisconsin Badgers. Giving Ohio State their first loss will get you a mention here. And now they're 9-3 in the Big Ten, have basically solidified themselves as the second best team in the conference, and are looking like they're a Sweet 16 team with upside. Great. I still hate them. Seriously, how can they be this good with guys like Tim Jarmusz, Keaton Nankivil, and Mike Bruesewitz as integral cogs? Bo Ryan is a freaking wizard. Crap. I think I accidentally realized I respect him. Still hate him though.
4. Pitt Panthers. It's a wide open year with about 15-20 legit final four contenders, and nearly every team has some pretty severe flaws that could end up knocking them out early. The one exception I've found is Pitt, a very balanced team who showed some serious moxie this week, winning on the road at both West Virginia and Villanova, the first loss for Nova at home since 2007. And they did it without leading scorer and point guard Ashton Gibbs. They're a good offensive team, a good defensive team, they score inside, they score outside, and they have great guards - everything you could want for success in March. If I didn't hate the Pitt program so much, I'd be a huge fan. Damn you Carl Krauser.
5. St. Johns Red Storm. I feel like I'm writing about these guys almost every week, but this was another monster week for the resurgent storm, dismantling UCONN at home and then winning a very big bubble implications type of game on the road at Cincinnati. I don't know exactly where they rank on the bubble and a 14-9 overall record isn't pretty, but a 7-5 Big East record with wins now over Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, and Duke tells me that based on talent this is absolutely an NCAA Tournament team, and an RPI of 20 with a strength of schedule ranked #2 says the same. They still have two gimmes in home games versus DePaul and South Florida, so at minimum they should end up at 9-9 in conference play. That's got to be good enough.
WHO SUCKED
1. Northwestern Wildcats. They seem to land here almost every week, don't they? I'm not even sure what else there is to write anymore, but they're just so hard to ignore because jesus. This week they lost to a bad Michigan team by 9 after allowing 52% shooting by the Wolverines, one of the poorer shooting teams in the conference and that wasn't nearly the more embarrassing loss of the two they registered this week. They got smoked by Penn State by 24 in a game where they mustered just 41 points in a brick city effort, shooting just 18-52 and 2-21 from three. Basically they can't shoot or play defense and are 4-9 in the Big Ten, just one game out of the cellar. I'm not even sure they're a NIT team. Maybe CBI. Sorry Loretta8.
2. Syracuse Orange. Another team that seems to find it's way into this section quite a bit lately, the Orange had yet another rough week, this time dropping a home game to Georgetown and then losing on the road at Louisville. That makes them 2-6 now since starting the year at 18-0, and although they aren't really in any danger of missing the NCAA Tournament their seed has slid rapidly, going from a possible #1 to #4 in the latest bracketology. They have two guaranteed wins in their final five games (DePaul and Rutgers at home), but a quick exit from the Big East tournament could get them down to a #5 and a matchup with a dreaded 12. If they end up against a team with quick, penetrating guards they're going to be in trouble. Actually, they're pretty much screwed and I don't see any way they make it out of the first weekend alive.
3. Missouri Valley Conference. Guess which conference basically guaranteed that they won't have an at-large team this year? Assuming you aren't a retard you probably figured out I'm talking about the Missouri Valley. Wichita State, the conference leader and a team that's 20-5, lost a home game to Southern Illinois, a team that you think is good until you remember that it's actually not 2005 anymore, and Northern Iowa, the third best team in the MVC, lost to Wichita as well as Evansville, continuing a losing streak that starting last week with a loss to Drake. UNI is definitely out, while Wichita's win over the Panthers keeps them barely hanging on by a string. They would probably need to win out and then make the MVC Tournament final to have a chance. Missouri State also has a chance, but they too would need to finish very, very strong. Looking more and more like a 1-bid league this year, even with a weak bubble and expanded field.
4. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. The weekend loss to Memphis really puts the Eagles in a bad spot, now a full game back atop the C-USA standings of co-leaders UAB and UTEP, and with only one win this year over an RPI Top 50 team their at large chances are fading. They still have home matches against both leaders and need to win those games and take care of business against the various other conference also-rans, but road games against UCF and Tulsa aren't going to be easy. Larry Eustachy has made USM relevant again within the conference, but will need a strong finish to make them relevant on a national level.
5. Utah State Aggies. So are we just going to have zero mid-major at-larges this year? Butler, Gonzaga, and Memphis were all givens in the past but most likely will all have to win their conference tournament, and now Utah State kicked away their chance at a bid on Wednesday by losing to Idaho. It sucks that they are basically eliminated from at-large consideration since they are 23-3, but it's their own fault. Their best win out of those 23 is probably their win over Long Beach, who ranks 116 in the RPI and 101 at kenpom.com. Yes, that's right, Utah State doesn't have a single win over an RPI top 100 foe, and they've only played two (Georgetown and BYU), leading to a ridiculous strength of schedule rank of 157. They get to play St. Mary's in Bracket Busters coming up here on Saturday which will help, but this loss to Idaho (RPI 156) is extremely damaging. Like crawling through a tunnel covered with razor wire and sharks.
For those who like Twins talk stick around. I'm aiming to get a Twins post up here on Tuesday.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Some Notes from MLK day Action
You may not know this - or you may, I don't really care and it doesn't really matter - but in honor of Martin Head King day ESPN ran a college basketball marathon of sorts, featuring four games (2 Big East, 2 Big Twelve) with some of the top team's in the country: #2 Kansas, #3 Syracuse, #4 Pitt, #7 Villanova, #8 UCONN, #14 Missouri, #24 Kansas State, and Baylor were all in action. Luckily due to my company being awesome and giving us the day off I was able to catch a large chunk of each game. Here are some quick impressions of each team involved. Pay attention to this, it will probably help you win your NCAA pool in March.
#7 Villanova - They have a much better inside/outside balance than they've had the last couple of years, with two legit low-post scorers in Antonio Pena and Mouphtao Yarou (who is a complete beast). I think their big weakness is that lack of a go-to guy. Say what you want about how bad Scottie Reynolds sucked for the first 35 minutes of every game, and he did, but he was reliable down the stretch run, something that's missing a bit this year. Corey Fisher certainly looked the part tonight, scoring the team's last 11 points, but based on what I've seen in other games I"m not sure that's something they can count on. Maybe he'll get to that point where he can put them on his back, but I'm not betting on it and am seeing an early exit for Nova in March. Maybe because I hate them.
#8 UCONN - This is a team that doesn't have to worry about who their go-to guy is since they have Kemba Walker, who once again cemented his reputation by hitting a floater with three seconds left to give the Huskies the big win over Nova. Walker is good enough that he can probably get UCONN into the Sweet 16, but if they're going to go any further someone is going to have to help. Alex Oriakhi has all the physical tools to become that guy, and they have several wing players who could step up, so I'd bet on somebody hitting their stride and UCONN being very dangerous in March. Don't forget, Walker basically won the Maui tournament all by himself, if he gets any help at all on a consistent basis look out.
#14 Missouri - A team that plays that "controlled chaos" style that the Tigers play will always be as good as their guards. No matter how good your interior types are, and Mizzou has some very good ones, the guards are what make that run-and-gun style work. Specifically the guys who handle the ball, and I was really impressed by their point guard Phil Pressey yesterday. Looking at his stats and game log he's very inconsistent this year, which is to be expected out of a freshman point guard, but he looked good against K-State. They're talented, but relying on a freshman to handle the ball in March is a good way to get bounced early.
#24 Kansas State - Well this is a fine mess. The Wildcats were blown out by Missouri, dropping their Big 12 record to 1-4, overall record to 13-6, and record against teams that aren't cupcakes to a very poor 3-6. That loss was basically a microcosm of their season: a talented, athletic team with zero discipline who turns the ball over like it's the goal of the game. They came into the game as one of the worst in the country at taking care of the ball, ranking 256th in the country, and then made things even worse, giving it away a staggering 23 times. Jake Pullen is basically the same player he was last year, but he's getting no help and their interior players are nearly as likely to turn it over as they are to score. Who knew Denis Clemente was that valuable? Second best Clemente in history, in my opinion.
#4 Pitt - Pitt is similar to Villanova for me, in that I hate them, but this Pitt team is built differently - they're actually athletic for once. Ashton Gibbs is looking like he'll break the line of overrated, overhyped, and crappy Pitt point guards (Brandin Knight, Carl Krauser, LeVance Fields) because he can actually score - not just shoot, not just pass, not just drive, but all those things plus scoring. Really like him. A couple other nice guards and some quality size including Kid from Kid N Play, and out of the four Big East teams I saw yesterday this team is most likely to make the Final Four. God it just kills my soul to say that. If the Packers win the Super Bowl and Pitt makes the Final Four in the same year you might be looking at the end of DWG 4-eva.
#3 Syracuse - It's admittedly a little tough to truly evaluate them based on yesterday's action because their leading scorer, Kris Joseph, was out with an injury, but there are a couple of points I can pull out of that game. The first is a positive, and that's that freshman Dion Waiters is going to be an absolute stud in a year or two. The second is not, and that's how vulnerable the 'Cuse 2-3 is to penetrating guards this year. Pitt was able to get into the lane over and over and over again, and that led to some easy baskets. Some unheralded team with solid, athletic guards is going to stretch them to the limit in March. Their a tough team, as shown by their ability to hang with Pitt without their best player, but they're vulnerable.
#2 Kansas - Wow. This is definitely a national title contender. I've seen them before but never really watched closely, and they're loaded. They're basically two deep at every guard position and are incredibly athletic. Their one weakness is that they are a bit undersized in the front court and don't have a real true post presence in the rotation, but the bigs they do have are more athletic that most you're going to find. They could be vulnerable in March because I'm not 100% sold on their point guard play, and also because they're Kansas who loses early a bit too often, but I am likely picking them to make the Final Four.
Baylor - Lace Dunn is one of the best scorers in the country, and he's surround by athletic wing and post types who can score. So what's the issue? There's nobody who can handle the damn ball. When I highlighted Baylor as WHO SUCKED from last weekend, I talked about their high number of turnovers, and now I've seen it in person. Dunn is basically a pure scoring guard being forced to play point, and that's not a recipe for success. This team has no shot in March.
Also I just re-watched Adventureland. Movie rocks. It actually makes me angry that Kristen Stewart is in those Twilight movies, because she's really good as the kind of quirky, goofy chick, but in the Twilight movies (and yes, I've been forced to watch all three) she's completely wasted because they took a character that was undeveloped with no depth (yes, I've read three of the books) and gave her even less of a personality in the movies. Such a waste. I love K-Stew. Top 10. And way hotter than Lisa P.
#7 Villanova - They have a much better inside/outside balance than they've had the last couple of years, with two legit low-post scorers in Antonio Pena and Mouphtao Yarou (who is a complete beast). I think their big weakness is that lack of a go-to guy. Say what you want about how bad Scottie Reynolds sucked for the first 35 minutes of every game, and he did, but he was reliable down the stretch run, something that's missing a bit this year. Corey Fisher certainly looked the part tonight, scoring the team's last 11 points, but based on what I've seen in other games I"m not sure that's something they can count on. Maybe he'll get to that point where he can put them on his back, but I'm not betting on it and am seeing an early exit for Nova in March. Maybe because I hate them.
#8 UCONN - This is a team that doesn't have to worry about who their go-to guy is since they have Kemba Walker, who once again cemented his reputation by hitting a floater with three seconds left to give the Huskies the big win over Nova. Walker is good enough that he can probably get UCONN into the Sweet 16, but if they're going to go any further someone is going to have to help. Alex Oriakhi has all the physical tools to become that guy, and they have several wing players who could step up, so I'd bet on somebody hitting their stride and UCONN being very dangerous in March. Don't forget, Walker basically won the Maui tournament all by himself, if he gets any help at all on a consistent basis look out.
#14 Missouri - A team that plays that "controlled chaos" style that the Tigers play will always be as good as their guards. No matter how good your interior types are, and Mizzou has some very good ones, the guards are what make that run-and-gun style work. Specifically the guys who handle the ball, and I was really impressed by their point guard Phil Pressey yesterday. Looking at his stats and game log he's very inconsistent this year, which is to be expected out of a freshman point guard, but he looked good against K-State. They're talented, but relying on a freshman to handle the ball in March is a good way to get bounced early.
#24 Kansas State - Well this is a fine mess. The Wildcats were blown out by Missouri, dropping their Big 12 record to 1-4, overall record to 13-6, and record against teams that aren't cupcakes to a very poor 3-6. That loss was basically a microcosm of their season: a talented, athletic team with zero discipline who turns the ball over like it's the goal of the game. They came into the game as one of the worst in the country at taking care of the ball, ranking 256th in the country, and then made things even worse, giving it away a staggering 23 times. Jake Pullen is basically the same player he was last year, but he's getting no help and their interior players are nearly as likely to turn it over as they are to score. Who knew Denis Clemente was that valuable? Second best Clemente in history, in my opinion.
#4 Pitt - Pitt is similar to Villanova for me, in that I hate them, but this Pitt team is built differently - they're actually athletic for once. Ashton Gibbs is looking like he'll break the line of overrated, overhyped, and crappy Pitt point guards (Brandin Knight, Carl Krauser, LeVance Fields) because he can actually score - not just shoot, not just pass, not just drive, but all those things plus scoring. Really like him. A couple other nice guards and some quality size including Kid from Kid N Play, and out of the four Big East teams I saw yesterday this team is most likely to make the Final Four. God it just kills my soul to say that. If the Packers win the Super Bowl and Pitt makes the Final Four in the same year you might be looking at the end of DWG 4-eva.
#3 Syracuse - It's admittedly a little tough to truly evaluate them based on yesterday's action because their leading scorer, Kris Joseph, was out with an injury, but there are a couple of points I can pull out of that game. The first is a positive, and that's that freshman Dion Waiters is going to be an absolute stud in a year or two. The second is not, and that's how vulnerable the 'Cuse 2-3 is to penetrating guards this year. Pitt was able to get into the lane over and over and over again, and that led to some easy baskets. Some unheralded team with solid, athletic guards is going to stretch them to the limit in March. Their a tough team, as shown by their ability to hang with Pitt without their best player, but they're vulnerable.
#2 Kansas - Wow. This is definitely a national title contender. I've seen them before but never really watched closely, and they're loaded. They're basically two deep at every guard position and are incredibly athletic. Their one weakness is that they are a bit undersized in the front court and don't have a real true post presence in the rotation, but the bigs they do have are more athletic that most you're going to find. They could be vulnerable in March because I'm not 100% sold on their point guard play, and also because they're Kansas who loses early a bit too often, but I am likely picking them to make the Final Four.
Baylor - Lace Dunn is one of the best scorers in the country, and he's surround by athletic wing and post types who can score. So what's the issue? There's nobody who can handle the damn ball. When I highlighted Baylor as WHO SUCKED from last weekend, I talked about their high number of turnovers, and now I've seen it in person. Dunn is basically a pure scoring guard being forced to play point, and that's not a recipe for success. This team has no shot in March.
Also I just re-watched Adventureland. Movie rocks. It actually makes me angry that Kristen Stewart is in those Twilight movies, because she's really good as the kind of quirky, goofy chick, but in the Twilight movies (and yes, I've been forced to watch all three) she's completely wasted because they took a character that was undeveloped with no depth (yes, I've read three of the books) and gave her even less of a personality in the movies. Such a waste. I love K-Stew. Top 10. And way hotter than Lisa P.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
College Basketball Preview: The Big East
1. Villanova Wildcats. I'm very glad Scottie Reynolds, one of my top five most hated college players of all-time, is gone, because I can go back to not hating Villanova right as they look to finally be balanced enough to be a real national title contender - and I mean a real threat, not a media-driven threat that was obviously going to flame out early - thanks again to Reynolds. Perimeter driven for years, this year Jay Wright and the Wildcats will have a balanced attack. Antonio Pena has made a huge leap from where he was as a freshman to become an excellent inside scoring threat and two sophomores (Mouphtaou Yarou and Isaiah Armwood) were highly regarding coming in last year and had very nice freshman years - and of course Nova is loaded with guards as they always are. So I guess is what I'm saying is we actually have to worry about Villanova and I don't like it one bit.
2. Syracuse Orange. The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again. Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse. Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss. Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip. This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in. Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life. You know it's true.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers. I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year. The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill level and couldn't shoot. Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media. I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.
4. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center. From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year. What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter). It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March. And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two. Long live tradition.
5. West Virginia Mountaineers. Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team. Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble). There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out). Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.
6. St. Johns Red Storm. Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it. New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011. But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring. I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)
7. Connecticut Huskies. I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close. Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here. Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not. In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud. At least until he gets arrested.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Better without Harangody? Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth. This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin. You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals. He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory). The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?
9. Marquette Eagles. Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington. Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom. If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people. As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy. Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.
10. Seton Hall Pirates. This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well. Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there. But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way. I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting. Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team. Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.
11. Louisville Cardinals. Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011. Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power. I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun. Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.
12. South Florida Bulls. Dominique Jones was completely awesome, and losing him is a big blow, but there's still some talent here in Tampa. Gus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous are both over 6-10, and both are excellent interior scorers and good rebounders. That kind of size and talent is going to give some teams fits. Former Ohio State problem child Anthony Crater is still getting in trouble now that he's a Bull, and didn't exactly light it up when he did play, but he was once a pretty highly regarded point guard coming out of high school with a lot of good offers from a lot of good programs. You know what they always say, if you give a headcase enough chances, he will always come through for you in the end and never, ever end up a huge disappointment.
13. Cincinnati Bearcats. This was my sleeper team last year, but their inability to close in tight games killed them and they ended up in the NIT (where they lost to freaking Dayton) instead of in the Final Four. With Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn now gone, there are major holes to fill and with the incoming class very meh it's going to be up to the returnees if Cincy is going to be something other than a cellar dweller. I watched a lot of Cincy ball last year, since I had a crush on them, and center Yancy Gates is the only one who was remotely impressive last year. Other than that they are a bunch of solid players but no real stars, and "point guard" Cashmere Wright was awful. Remember Kerwin Fleming? Throw out that improbable run he had in the NIT after Monson let him play streetball and you have Wright, except he's expected to start and lead the team. Yeah.
14. Providence Friars. In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year. In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams. They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th). So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it. That is not good. On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient. This will all probably happen again.
15. Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton. New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster. Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena. Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave.
16. DePaul Blue Demons. The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row. Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one. Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone. With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year. These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.
Other Previews:
Pac-10
ACC
Big 12
2. Syracuse Orange. The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again. Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse. Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss. Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip. This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in. Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life. You know it's true.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers. I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year. The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill level and couldn't shoot. Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media. I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.
4. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center. From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year. What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter). It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March. And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two. Long live tradition.
5. West Virginia Mountaineers. Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team. Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble). There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out). Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.
6. St. Johns Red Storm. Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it. New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011. But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring. I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)
7. Connecticut Huskies. I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close. Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here. Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not. In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud. At least until he gets arrested.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Better without Harangody? Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth. This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin. You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals. He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory). The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?
9. Marquette Eagles. Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington. Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom. If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people. As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy. Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.
10. Seton Hall Pirates. This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well. Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there. But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way. I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting. Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team. Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.
11. Louisville Cardinals. Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011. Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power. I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun. Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.
14. Providence Friars. In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year. In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams. They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th). So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it. That is not good. On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient. This will all probably happen again.
15. Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton. New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster. Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena. Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave.
16. DePaul Blue Demons. The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row. Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one. Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone. With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year. These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.
Other Previews:
Pac-10
ACC
Big 12
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Week in Review: 1/18/2010 (Alternate Title: WTF?)
They lost to Indiana? How does that even happen? Especially after forcing overtime with a semi-miraculous comeback? I suppose I can see just falling asleep. I mean Admiral Ackbar even warned that it was a trap, so I can't forgive, but I can understand getting submarined like that. But to come back and force overtime and then choke it away? Once you get to OT your superior talent is supposed to win out. What's that? You don't think they have superior talent? I think you might be right. More on that later. For now my rage is such that I can't even get upset that Mike Redmond is gone. Let's just move right along. [NOTE: most of this was written before the Gopher loss. You'll be able to tell which parts were written after.]
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Sid Rice/Brett Favre. I saved this spot just for a Vikings win and now we have one. But the Gophers' lost, and now I can barely bring myself to care. Woopity doo, now you can go get destroyed by the Saints and the bottom 50% of IQs in the state will all kill themselves. Good for Favre for not going negative gunslinger and throwing three or four picks, good for Sid for becoming "equivalent to Larry Ftiz" according to Snacks, and good for the Vikings for winning. Sorry, but I just can't care after that pathetic Gopher performance.
2. Ohio State. Evan Turner comes back, and suddenly the Buckeyes are what I thought they were and proved it in a big way this week, winning at Purdue and then following it up by beating the Badgers in Columbus. Turner carried them over the Boilers, putting up 32 points and 9 boards, but the win over Wisconsin might have been more impressive because although Turner played ok, Lighty and Buford really carried the team. Those three, along with the shooting of Jon Diebler, are about as good as it gets anywhere in the country. Maybe they don't have a good enough big man or a true point guard and that might hurt them in March, but I still say these guys are legit final four contenders.
3. Syracuse. I'll be honest, I've kind of been waiting for the Cuse to drop off because I just don't think this year's team is nearly as talented as they have been in year's past - and even last year. Who would have thought losing Eric Devendorf, Paul Harris, and Jonny Flynn would make a team better? From what I'm reading this year's version is really buying into the "team" concept and really play well together, something that has been an issue with Boeheim's teams in the past (I'm looking at you, Donte Greene). Whatever the reason is, it's definitely working, and going into Morgantown and beating a really freaking good West Virginia team is really impressive and is the step that finally convinced me that this is a legit National Contending team. They're very balanced (seven guys score 8.6+ points per game and five grab at least three boards), they have nice inside/outside flow, penetrating guards, and good outside shooters, and have a legit star in Wes Johnson. Look out for the Orange.
4. Pitt. I really, really dislike doing this because I think Pitt is my third most hated college program after Wisconsin and Iowa, but the Panthers are for real and are almost certainly going to make the NCAA Tournament to be boring for yet another year. They had two monster wins this week, beating UCONN in Storrs in what might have been the most impressive win of the season thus far, and following it up with a big comeback and then win in overtime against Louisville. They are now 5-0 in Big East play (including road wins against UCONN, Cincinnati, and Syracuse) and Ashton Gibbs has turned into a super star. At least he's not as annoying as Brandin Knight or Carl Krauser or LeVance Fields. Although that's not saying much.
5. Jarvis Varnado. When I drew the first pick in my Fantasy College Basketball League, my heart said to take Varnado, the F/C from Mississippi State who blocks shots the way Dawger tosses out stupid opinions, but my head got in the way and said take Harangody - the safe pick. He was the leading returning scorer from last year and was guaranteed the be the focal point of the offense. Well, I should have taken Varnado. This guy is incredible. He notched his second triple-double of the season (and 3rd or 4th of his career, I'm too lazy to look it up) on Thursday in a win over Arkansas with 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 blocks, and then followed that up on Saturday with a 14-14-6 performance against Georgia. He is currently leading the nation in blocked shots (this would make the third straight year), and increased his rebounding this year to 11 per game (from 9) and his scoring to 14 (from 13), all while increasing his shooting percentage from 55 to 62 percent. Such as stud. NBADraft.net right now projects him as the 29th overall pick this year - that's a steal.
WHO SUCKED
1. Gopher basketball. WTF? I just don't get it. I'm just glad I missed most of this game. I have a feeling if I had watched this whole game I'd probably have to kill myself. Serious question: are we allowed to question Tubby now? I know we weren't allowed to before, but we have to get to now, right? And how does Verdell Jones get to the line 19 times? And how does a team get out-rebounded 40-29 and give up 17 offensive rebounds? Does any of this make a lick of sense? Oh wait, sure does when you realize this team belongs no where near the NCAA Tournament. I'm pretty sure I'm going to just stop watching games. This is going to become nothing but a "bad movie live blog" blog. I hope you'll stop by anyway. I'm just so sick of being a Gopher basketball fan. Not sure I can do it anymore. Colton Iverson is terrible. Tubby Smith is getting outcoached in damn near every game. Just as Ralph is maybe coming into his own a bit, everybody else takes a step backward. Westbrook disappeared again, and this time he took Nolen with him. Does anybody else think it's time for Tubby to pick his 8 guys and just go with it? Depth is great, but when it comes at the expense of developing players, chemistry, and familiarity with each it's no longer an asset, but a detriment. I think we're at that point.
2. Purdue. Time to start worrying? Probably not quite just yet, but this was a terrible week for the Boilers who are suddenly a second-division Big Ten team. Final Four teams don't usually have weeks where they go 0-2, particularly when their two games are a home game and a roadie against a lower division conference foe, but that's just what Purdue did. They lost a barnburner at home to Ohio State, which is acceptable since the Buckeyes are also a final four caliber squad, but followed it up with a loss to Northwestern which raises some questions. Are the Wildcats really that good? Are the Boilers really not that good? Was this just a fluke? Why have the Boilers suddenly lost three in a row after starting out 14-0? The answer to all these questions is that they are ignoring JaJuan Johnson, which is the worst decision since sliced bread. Johnson hasn't gotten more than seven shots in a game during this losing streak, while Moore and Hummel continue to chuck it up. Refusing to get the ball inside? Does Tubby coach Purdue now too?
3. North Carolina. Well there's really no way around it anymore, the Tar Heels are effed up this year and have now fallen to 1-2 in the conference after losses at Clemson and at home against Georgia Tech this week. Neither of those losses are bad if you are a "normal" team, but for UNC alarm bells should be dinging like a Gaydar around Steve Esselink - there are some major problems. Larry Drew might not be a big time point guard and freshman Dexter Strickland isn't ready to take over yet. Ed Davis and John Henson are seemingly lacking some sort of motivation/mental toughness. Deon Thompson is a really, really dumb player, and Marcus Ginyard and Tyler Zellar are both battling injuries. The Ginyard thing might be the biggest deal, since he could be the senior leader that the team really needs. In any case, the Heels now have some serious work to do if they are going to make the tournament.
4. Wichita State. I know the Shockers were starting to eye up an at-large bid at 13-2 with a win over Texas Tech on the resume and no bad losses, but they can't afford to drop games like they did on Saturday at Creighton. This isn't the Creighton program you remember, this is the Creighton program that is now just 10-9 this year and has lost to teams like Indiana State and Iona already - in other words, this is a bad loss. The MVC isn't strong enough this year to send more than Northern Iowa + 1 team max to the dance, and that +1 is either going to be the Shockers or Illinois State if either of them can rip through conference play (assuming no major upset winner of the conference tournament). The games against mediocre road teams are a good tester between a tournament team and an NIT team, and Wichita failed this test.
5. Penn State. You lost to Iowa, dude. Remember in Eurotrip, how the twin brother and sister accidentally end up making out because they have too much absinthe, and then after that it doesn't matter what the brother said because Cooper alwasy just says, "YOU MADE OUT WITH YOUR SISTER!" That's what this is like. Only far more embarrassing. Talor Battle must be just seconds away from going postal at all times. His teammates shot just 38% while he shot fifty. Ugh. This is just terrible. I know they're good for football and that their is talk of expansion, but has anybody thought about booting PSU back out and returning the Big Ten to ten teams? I'm serious. [NOTE: I wrote this entry before the Gophers decided to lose to Indiana. That is far more embarrassing. It's not close.]
I also want to put you on notice regarding Avery Bradley, the freshman point guard for Texas. I wasn't able to put him in the awesome section if though I wanted to because he put up a pretty big stinker on Saturday against Texas A&M, but I got to watch him on Wednesday against Iowa State and he is awesome - if it wasn't for John Wall he would be the best freshman I've seen play this year. Check him out.
Also I can't wait to check out the Gopher Hole. I can't wait to see how people spin this.
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