Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out. You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck. I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random. Spoiler alert: The Gophers aren't in here.
1. NORTH CAROLINA. They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible. They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball. Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good. SPOILER: nope.
2. KENTUCKY. Hell I don't know.
3. MARYLAND. It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it. They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team. Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole. Still, three seems really freaking high.
4. KANSAS. Want to hear something that will blow your mind? Perry Ellis is back for another year. Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner. Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards. This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap. With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good. Bet on them. Do it. Go do it. They're like 10-1. Do it.
5. DUKE. Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right? This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it? Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season. NOT BLOODY LIKELY. Good luck with him and one million freshmen. Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too. Yes, Rice. The college. If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive. I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.
6. VIRGINIA. Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball. Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell. And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers. Ugh. Stop already.
7. IOWA STATE. If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise. But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs. Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high. They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.
8. OKLAHOMA. The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again. They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time. Take notes, Cavaliers. Also, this is way too high for these guys.
9. GONZAGA. Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out. Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999. So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully. They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early. This section was extremely boring.
10. WICHITA STATE. They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back. That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley. No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll. Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two. I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.
11. VILLANOVA. God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win. They were so freaking good. Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing. Also their thing: guards. And they have a bunch of them again. So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early. It's what they do. Lesson learned.
12. ARIZONA. Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone. That is a lot of people to be gone. However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers. Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you. And you would die.
13. MICHIGAN STATE. Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in. For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop. I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here. He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor. The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn. I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn. So like, is that his thing? What does he do if nobody guards him? He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker. I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't. I hope that's what happens with Nairn.
14. CAL. This team could be like whoa. I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1. They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits. Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits. If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team. Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach. This is my favorite sleeper this year.
15. INDIANA. Oh come on! Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall? No chance. It's the same team. The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good? Or even passable? No. Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense. Should score a lot of points though. Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.
16. UTAH. I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball. Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys! His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March. He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point. Should be fun. No idea about all these other guys.
17. WISCONSIN. Oh come on! You're kidding me. Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger. I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach. But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else. I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too. People are morons. Badgers suck this year.
18. VANDERBILT. Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking. On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back. Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good. In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
19. NOTRE DAME. Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us." The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone. Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball. In summation, these guys suck.
20. UCONN. They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before. Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish. How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball? That's insane. Also, I probably watch too much basketball.
21. LSU. One of my favorite sleepers this year. Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible. As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what. LSU is on that list.
22. BAYLOR. Baylor still? I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are. The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone. Oh what's that? A really young back court coached by Scott Drew? I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.
23. PURDUE. Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book. A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs.. It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time. I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet. Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season. They also can't shoot at all. So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.
24. BUTLER. I tried to write about Butler like 4 times. That's probably enough.
25. MICHIGAN. Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament. That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams. They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team. Probably better than this ranking. Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet. College sports needs trading, would be so awesome. Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I. PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Friday, March 27, 2015
Previewing the Sweet 16 - Friday
Small loss yesterday pretty much because of the 5 unit loss on the Wis/UNC under. I still feel like I read that game right as it was just a 60 possession game so I nailed the pace. Carolina hitting 8 of 13 three point attempts really sunk me. I figured Wisconsin would are UNC to shoot and they'd miss a bunch, but they nailed them so what are you gonna do? Even given that I still had a chance until that stupid UNC foul on the perimeter with less than a minute left took out the possibility of Bucky running the clock down. Whatevs. We move on. Had most of the other stuff nailed. Here's what I'm thinking for Friday.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga. I really, really, really didn't expect UCLA to get here, so I'm at a bit of a loss. Bryce Alford, who was becoming more and more of a chucker as the year went on, has been white hot in the tournament, and after a lucky, grind it out win against SMU (with a questionable call to boot) they looked like an absolute offensive juggernaut against UAB. That might not sound like much, but don't forget the Blazers pretty much completely shut down Iowa State. Is UCLA a lucky team who snuck into the tournament undeservedly, lucked into a first round win, and then decimated a shoddy opponent in round 2? Or are they a team worthy of inclusion who has won two games playing vastly different styles and is now peaking at the right time?
Nothing in these teams' profiles suggests the Bruins have a prayer of stopping Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a smoothly run offensive operation with plenty of firepower both inside and outside and other than some suspect free throw shooting from their big guys no real weaknesses. UCLA is going to have to score to keep up with them, and the Zags defense is far superior to the Bruins so it won't be easy. They're going to want to try to get down the court as soon as possible with their athletes and try to get moving towards the basket before Gonzaga can get their half court defense set up, but an uptempo game also suits the Bulldogs just fine.
These teams played earlier this year, with Gonzaga coming out ahead 87-74. The Zags absolutely shredded the UCLA defense with the Bruins hanging as close as they did thanks to good 3-point shooting and a bunch of offensive rebounds. I don't really see much of any reason to expect anything wildly different, though without question this is the game I feel I have the shakiest read on.
Bet: Gonzaga -8.5 (1 UNIT), Over 146 (1 UNIT)
UCLA vs. Gonzaga. I really, really, really didn't expect UCLA to get here, so I'm at a bit of a loss. Bryce Alford, who was becoming more and more of a chucker as the year went on, has been white hot in the tournament, and after a lucky, grind it out win against SMU (with a questionable call to boot) they looked like an absolute offensive juggernaut against UAB. That might not sound like much, but don't forget the Blazers pretty much completely shut down Iowa State. Is UCLA a lucky team who snuck into the tournament undeservedly, lucked into a first round win, and then decimated a shoddy opponent in round 2? Or are they a team worthy of inclusion who has won two games playing vastly different styles and is now peaking at the right time?
Nothing in these teams' profiles suggests the Bruins have a prayer of stopping Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a smoothly run offensive operation with plenty of firepower both inside and outside and other than some suspect free throw shooting from their big guys no real weaknesses. UCLA is going to have to score to keep up with them, and the Zags defense is far superior to the Bruins so it won't be easy. They're going to want to try to get down the court as soon as possible with their athletes and try to get moving towards the basket before Gonzaga can get their half court defense set up, but an uptempo game also suits the Bulldogs just fine.
These teams played earlier this year, with Gonzaga coming out ahead 87-74. The Zags absolutely shredded the UCLA defense with the Bruins hanging as close as they did thanks to good 3-point shooting and a bunch of offensive rebounds. I don't really see much of any reason to expect anything wildly different, though without question this is the game I feel I have the shakiest read on.
Bet: Gonzaga -8.5 (1 UNIT), Over 146 (1 UNIT)
Louisville vs. North Carolina State: I’m such a horrible traitor. For years I've been a huge Rick Pitino fan, which helps to explain some of my enthusiasm at the Gophers’ hiring of his son, and have always backed them to overachieve in the NCAA Tournament. I won a 20-1 future bet three years ago when they won the title and won my NCAA pool the year he won with that awesome Tony Delk Kentucky team and that should have been enough to make me a believer for life, and I thought I was. So why did I pick Louisville to lose to UC-Irvine? Was I enthralled with that giant 7-6 guy? Did I think losing Chris Jones would make a chaotic, and sometimes limited, offensive team even more chaotic? Did I think a poor close to the season made the Cardinals a prime candidate to flame out early? Yes to all of it. I'm horrible. It's Rick Pitino, you dummy.
Of course, we can't discount NC State seeing as they completely dismantled what I thought was a very good Villanova team, not to mention beating a very athletic LSU squad in round 1. Both teams have played tremendous defense in the tournament thus far holding all opponents far under their points per possession average with both putting up an extremely impressive performance versus an elite offensive team (Northern Iowa and Villanova). Both teams do it with a hellacious half court defense, though Louisville holds an edge here because they also excel at causing turnovers whereas NC State never does. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well, so if this turns into a half court game it could end up quite a slogfest.
It will most likely end up that way, at least on the NC State end since the Wolfpack like to take their time and the Louisville defense, despite the press, generally forces teams to take up quite a bit of the shot clock on each possession. Louisville will probably get a few easy baskets in transition thanks to turnovers, though NC State is pretty good at taking care of the ball, and they'll need them since their tendency is take a lot of terrible long twos. I have a feeling this is going to be a very ugly game, or a beautiful game if you like defense. In that case I'd be crazy to pick against Rick Pitino again.
Bet: Louisville -3 (2 UNITS), Under 130 (4 UNITS)
Of course, we can't discount NC State seeing as they completely dismantled what I thought was a very good Villanova team, not to mention beating a very athletic LSU squad in round 1. Both teams have played tremendous defense in the tournament thus far holding all opponents far under their points per possession average with both putting up an extremely impressive performance versus an elite offensive team (Northern Iowa and Villanova). Both teams do it with a hellacious half court defense, though Louisville holds an edge here because they also excel at causing turnovers whereas NC State never does. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well, so if this turns into a half court game it could end up quite a slogfest.
It will most likely end up that way, at least on the NC State end since the Wolfpack like to take their time and the Louisville defense, despite the press, generally forces teams to take up quite a bit of the shot clock on each possession. Louisville will probably get a few easy baskets in transition thanks to turnovers, though NC State is pretty good at taking care of the ball, and they'll need them since their tendency is take a lot of terrible long twos. I have a feeling this is going to be a very ugly game, or a beautiful game if you like defense. In that case I'd be crazy to pick against Rick Pitino again.
Bet: Louisville -3 (2 UNITS), Under 130 (4 UNITS)
Utah vs. Duke. The Blue Devil start and end with Jahlil Okafor, who is the key to everything they do on offense. He has an incredibly polished game in the post, is an adept and smart enough passer to find open shooters when double-teamed, and is a terror on the offensive boards. He struggles against defenders who can match his size, however, and I found a little factoid that he's averaged just 11.6 points per game against teams with a 7-footer they can throw at him. Well guess what? Utah has two in Jakob Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, and neither are just a big body, both have skill. This bodes well for the Utes. Not that Okafor is all Duke has, especially with Justise Winslow really coming on in the tournament, but having the ability to potentially limit Okafor is a really good start.
Offensively Utah also matches up well against Duke. The Blue Devils excel at perimeter defense giving up very few three pointers and they rarely foul, but over 60% of their points allowed this year came from 2-point shots, not a problem for Utah since they shot 53% from there this year. They were a little more reliant on three pointers than you'd like to see in this spot, but shooting 41% from behind the line on the year can do that to a team. At least you know that even if they get limited looks they should be able to knock them down. Delon Wright is an underrated super star at guard for Utah and he should be able to get into the lane against Duke, which could create some of those open looks.
If this becomes a half court game, I really like the Utes' chances. I think their size on defense and ability to pound the ball in the paint are huge issues for Duke. Even if Duke tries to get up and run, and they will, Utah's offense should be good enough to keep pace.
Bet: Utah +6 (3 UNITS), Over 134 (1 UNIT)
Offensively Utah also matches up well against Duke. The Blue Devils excel at perimeter defense giving up very few three pointers and they rarely foul, but over 60% of their points allowed this year came from 2-point shots, not a problem for Utah since they shot 53% from there this year. They were a little more reliant on three pointers than you'd like to see in this spot, but shooting 41% from behind the line on the year can do that to a team. At least you know that even if they get limited looks they should be able to knock them down. Delon Wright is an underrated super star at guard for Utah and he should be able to get into the lane against Duke, which could create some of those open looks.
If this becomes a half court game, I really like the Utes' chances. I think their size on defense and ability to pound the ball in the paint are huge issues for Duke. Even if Duke tries to get up and run, and they will, Utah's offense should be good enough to keep pace.
Bet: Utah +6 (3 UNITS), Over 134 (1 UNIT)
Michigan State vs. Oklahoma. Two inconsistent teams (MSU lost to Texas Southern and Nebraska this year, Oklahoma lost to Washington and was swept by Kansas State) who seem to be peaking at the right time, this should be a pretty entertaining game. Though both teams play great defense, both also enjoy running with much quicker average possession times on offense than on defense. The Spartans defense generally ends up with them playing games that look to be slower tempo but their opponents average time of possession was 20.1 seconds, the second slowest mark in the country. That’s against plodding big ten teams, not a team like Oklahoma who averages under 17 seconds per possession, one of the quickest in the nation. This reads like a potential track meet to me, so the question is: who wins a track meet?
The Sooners were 6-4 this year in games against the kenpom 100 that hit 70 possessions or more; the Spartans 1-2. Sparty is definitely a deeper squad, but with almost a week of rest at this point in the season that’s pretty meaningless outside of foul trouble and neither team draws many fouls, so that advantage is pretty much irrelevant. Michigan State is a better rebounding team by a little bit, but if this game goes as I’m picturing it that won’t matter all that much either. Same goes for Oklahoma’s advantage in the turnover department, which could come into play but it’s small enough and this game should be wide open enough I don’t think it matters all that much.
I guess, in my opinion, it’s all going to come down to making shots. Michigan State is a better shot making team, but Oklahoma is a better shot defending team. Oklahoma has the best offensive weapon in Buddy Hield, but Michigan State probably has the next three in Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Oklahoma is a great free throw shooting team, while Michigan State is terrible. How much is that going to matter in a game where neither team draws many fouls? I really don’t know. I don’t have a great read on the side here, but I think we’ll see points.
Bet: Oklahoma +2.5 (1 UNIT), OVER 134 (3 UNITS)
The Sooners were 6-4 this year in games against the kenpom 100 that hit 70 possessions or more; the Spartans 1-2. Sparty is definitely a deeper squad, but with almost a week of rest at this point in the season that’s pretty meaningless outside of foul trouble and neither team draws many fouls, so that advantage is pretty much irrelevant. Michigan State is a better rebounding team by a little bit, but if this game goes as I’m picturing it that won’t matter all that much either. Same goes for Oklahoma’s advantage in the turnover department, which could come into play but it’s small enough and this game should be wide open enough I don’t think it matters all that much.
I guess, in my opinion, it’s all going to come down to making shots. Michigan State is a better shot making team, but Oklahoma is a better shot defending team. Oklahoma has the best offensive weapon in Buddy Hield, but Michigan State probably has the next three in Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Oklahoma is a great free throw shooting team, while Michigan State is terrible. How much is that going to matter in a game where neither team draws many fouls? I really don’t know. I don’t have a great read on the side here, but I think we’ll see points.
Bet: Oklahoma +2.5 (1 UNIT), OVER 134 (3 UNITS)
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Tuesday's Tourney - The Grandest of them All.
Three more teams grabbed bids last night: Wofford, Manhattan, and Northeastern. Wofford was the #1 seed and will probably end up somewhere around that 12th seed spot with a legit chance at an upset, depending on the matchup. Northeastern was a top team in their conference but is most likely going to have to face a #2 seed, and the #2s are very strong this year. Manhattan cost us Iona.
See, both Manhattan and Iona are super fun teams that like to play circus ball, which means entertainment so on some level we should be happy with either of them. However, Iona probably would have been like a 14 seed or so, and would have ended up playing someone at least somewhat vulnerable like a Maryland or an Oklahoma (and Iona/Oklahoma would be super fun). Manhattan, on the other hand, will most likely, unless lots of conference tournaments go sideways, end up in the First Four, so even if they get passed someone like Texas Southern they'll end up playing a one seed, who will probably stomp a hole in them. Once again, Conference Tournaments are super fun but are also the worst.
Only one tournament gets going today;
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE:
Conference realignment has torn the Big East apart and strengthened the ACC, no doubt. That makes it easy to mourn the Big East Tournament, but I kinda miss the old ACC Tournament as well. Growing up the Big Ten didn't have a tournament, the ACC was on TV all the time, the programs were really good, and their style of play was a blast so I fell in love with the ACC Tournament. That super cool court in Greensboro, Randolph Childress destroying everybody, Fire and Ice, and some serious Duke vs. Maryland battles. It makes me feel like some cranky old man, but I really wish the ACC was the same (and the Big East). But I now I'm not a cranky old man, because I like lots of other changes. Not like my friend The Bear. He hates everything that ever changes.
FAVORITE: Virginia. I keep doubting the Cavaliers (well, for the last two years when they've been good) and they keep proving me wrong. A 28-2 record is no joke, especially going through the ACC where they only lost in close games to Duke and Louisville, both of whom will likely be top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The loss of Justin Anderson has them extra vulnerable since he was their one ace shooter and more of the offense will fall to Malcolm Brogdon, but this team does it with defense anyway, so they should be fine. That defense is amazing.
SLEEPER:Syracuse. They can't go to the NCAA Tournament anyway so their motivation might be suspect, and the whole NCAA hammering them thing may make them even more ready to crawl under a rock and be done with this season, but it also could do that thing where it makes a team band together and try harder or whatever they always show us in movies. They still play great defense, and though the offense has been challenged at best this year what if Trevor Cooney decides "hey you know what? I'm going to mix it up and actually make a bunch of shots now."? It could happen. Probably not. North Carolina State.
THE PICK: Duke. Duke is rolling. After some early conference jitters where they went 3-3 for a stretch, the Blue Devils have rolled off eleven straight included a sweep of the Tar Heels, a 30-point stomping of Notre Dame, and a road win at Virginia - that's impressive. Jahlil Okafor may have hit a bit of a freshman wall but he's still a beast to deal with, Tyus Jones (sorry) has simply been amazing running that team, and Quinn Cook has transformed himself from offensive afterthought to big time scorer. They're ready to run the ACC table here. And they're still perfectly flawed enough to be upset early in the NCAA Tournament. Win/win.
One billion conference tournaments start tomorrow. I better get started.
See, both Manhattan and Iona are super fun teams that like to play circus ball, which means entertainment so on some level we should be happy with either of them. However, Iona probably would have been like a 14 seed or so, and would have ended up playing someone at least somewhat vulnerable like a Maryland or an Oklahoma (and Iona/Oklahoma would be super fun). Manhattan, on the other hand, will most likely, unless lots of conference tournaments go sideways, end up in the First Four, so even if they get passed someone like Texas Southern they'll end up playing a one seed, who will probably stomp a hole in them. Once again, Conference Tournaments are super fun but are also the worst.
Only one tournament gets going today;
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE:
Conference realignment has torn the Big East apart and strengthened the ACC, no doubt. That makes it easy to mourn the Big East Tournament, but I kinda miss the old ACC Tournament as well. Growing up the Big Ten didn't have a tournament, the ACC was on TV all the time, the programs were really good, and their style of play was a blast so I fell in love with the ACC Tournament. That super cool court in Greensboro, Randolph Childress destroying everybody, Fire and Ice, and some serious Duke vs. Maryland battles. It makes me feel like some cranky old man, but I really wish the ACC was the same (and the Big East). But I now I'm not a cranky old man, because I like lots of other changes. Not like my friend The Bear. He hates everything that ever changes.
FAVORITE: Virginia. I keep doubting the Cavaliers (well, for the last two years when they've been good) and they keep proving me wrong. A 28-2 record is no joke, especially going through the ACC where they only lost in close games to Duke and Louisville, both of whom will likely be top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The loss of Justin Anderson has them extra vulnerable since he was their one ace shooter and more of the offense will fall to Malcolm Brogdon, but this team does it with defense anyway, so they should be fine. That defense is amazing.
SLEEPER:
THE PICK: Duke. Duke is rolling. After some early conference jitters where they went 3-3 for a stretch, the Blue Devils have rolled off eleven straight included a sweep of the Tar Heels, a 30-point stomping of Notre Dame, and a road win at Virginia - that's impressive. Jahlil Okafor may have hit a bit of a freshman wall but he's still a beast to deal with, Tyus Jones (sorry) has simply been amazing running that team, and Quinn Cook has transformed himself from offensive afterthought to big time scorer. They're ready to run the ACC table here. And they're still perfectly flawed enough to be upset early in the NCAA Tournament. Win/win.
One billion conference tournaments start tomorrow. I better get started.
Monday, December 22, 2014
Notes on Baseball, and a Little Hoops
It's the middle of winter, I have a billion days off, and there's lots going on that I haven't gotten to. So here's some of that.
- First off, the Torii Hunter signing. Ugh. Hate it. Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons. So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay! I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks. And they're going to suck this year. The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.
A bridge to 2016 you say? No. He's not good anymore. He's just not. He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it. He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope. Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are. Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value. Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster. Look at the outfielders. There are no words. Just horrible.
Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt. The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought. Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine. I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays). I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series. I don't want to be patient any more. Let's just move along.
- More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal. I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything. The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).
Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog. That's the hope anyway. Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia. That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching. Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.
- The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal. Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous. Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck. I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price. Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?
Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke. His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year. That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note: I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million. If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive. Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced. I'm hoping for Hughes.
- Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves. Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him. Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck. He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on. As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves. Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago. Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings. Hopefully he does well.
- Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time. They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks. Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away). They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation. Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.
Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways. Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more. Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic. Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career. I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.
This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender. They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore. If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH. It's a fun time to be a Padre fan. I hate them.
- Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky? My goodness they just overwhelm teams. The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes. And everyone is buying into the concept. I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.
Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night. The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville. Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game. Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday). Depressing? Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.
- Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10. That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season. I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's. These are all horrible, horrible losses. These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets. Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).
I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss. Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well. Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing. As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.
- Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.
- First off, the Torii Hunter signing. Ugh. Hate it. Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons. So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay! I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks. And they're going to suck this year. The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.
A bridge to 2016 you say? No. He's not good anymore. He's just not. He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it. He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope. Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are. Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value. Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster. Look at the outfielders. There are no words. Just horrible.
Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt. The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought. Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine. I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays). I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series. I don't want to be patient any more. Let's just move along.
- More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal. I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything. The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).
Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog. That's the hope anyway. Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia. That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching. Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.
- The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal. Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous. Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck. I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price. Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?
Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke. His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year. That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note: I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million. If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive. Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced. I'm hoping for Hughes.
- Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves. Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him. Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck. He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on. As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves. Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago. Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings. Hopefully he does well.
- Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time. They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks. Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away). They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation. Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.
Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways. Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more. Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic. Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career. I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.
This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender. They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore. If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH. It's a fun time to be a Padre fan. I hate them.
- Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky? My goodness they just overwhelm teams. The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes. And everyone is buying into the concept. I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.
Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night. The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville. Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game. Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday). Depressing? Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.
- Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10. That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season. I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's. These are all horrible, horrible losses. These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets. Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).
I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss. Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well. Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing. As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.
- Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
And we're Spent
I was going to write about everything that happened today, but I write the previews and stuff first and then go back and write the introduction and I'm really quite tired and I don't think that's something that I'm going to do.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Battle 4 Atlantis Mini-Preview
Hey. Still in Utah. Ended up computer-less for the last two days due to circumstances you don't really care about. But with the Battle 4 Atlantis kicking off tomorrow I might as well do a quick little preview on the teams, starting with Duke since we know that's who the Gophers play in Round 1.
The Blue Devils are always good, but are generally at their best when they share the ball and have a wealth of scoring option rather than a single player who dominates the ball - which is how this team is constructed this year.
Center Mason Plumlee and wing Seth Curry are the two main pieces for the Dukies. Plumlee leads Duke in both scoring (21.7 per game) and rebounding (8.7) and has been extremely efficient this year hitting from the floor at a 77% clip. Obviously that's unsustainable, and according to what I've read about Plumlee he's pretty much been converting dunks and lay-ups and doesn't look to make any kind of actual post move very often. He's not particularly athletic or strong, so if Mbakwe is back to where he was last year he should be able to destroy him in the paint, and there's a non-zero possibility that he literally kills Plumlee with a dunk in his face. The way I think of it, and I apologize for this extremely nerdy analogy, is if you're playing chess and suddenly your opponent has his queen in your space and you know you're going to get destroyed, you just hope to hold on and minimize the damage. That's Mbakwe in this game because Plumlee is really the only post player Duke has and he can't handle Mbakwe. In fact, if I'm Coach K I figure out who Mbakwe is guarding (most likely Plumlee) and feed him the ball as often as possible after telling him his job is to draw fouls. I can see Mbakwe being so amped up for this game that he won't be able to settle down and two quick fouls is a very real, and very bad, possibility for the Gophers.
Curry, the brother of all-time chucker Stephen Curry, has a bit of chucker in him (he leads Duke in shot attempts) but plays more under control in Duke's system than his brother did. Between he and Rasheed Sulaimon the Gopher guards are going to have their hands full. Both can score inside or out and both hit 40% or better from three this season, and Sulaimon is a big-time distributor, averaging 3.7 assists and a total of 11 versus just 4 turnovers - great numbers for a freshman at the beginning of his career. Add in the mid-range game of Ryan Kelly (40% 3-pt shooter last year) and his ability to find the open man (2.7 assists per game this year for a 6-11 player) and if the Gophers try to play zone this game is already over.
The key for Minnesota will be in their defense, shooting, and taking care of the ball. That sounds like every game I know, but it's especially meaningful in this match-up. Duke has won (the three wins: Georgia State, Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast) by being an extremely efficient shooting team, whether due to shot selection, dead-eye accuracy, or a little of both. They shoot 38.4% from 3 this year (67th in the country) and 55.5% from two (33rd), and when combined that makes them the 28th best shooting team in the country. On the flip side, the Gophers are #1 in the country in opponent's effective field goal percentage, holding teams to 19.1% from three (#9) and 32.7% from two (3rd). That will likely be the main difference in the game.
The Gophers have big-time opportunities here in offensive rebounding and three-point shooting. Duke is not a particularly good defensive rebounding team where the Gophers excel at crashing the offensive glass, and Duke really struggles to defend the three (opponents shoot 40.8% behind the arc, 313th in the country). The Gophers aren't a great shooting team behind the line but they aren't terrible either, the key will be in knocking down those opportunities for open looks that Duke will definitely give up. The other watch-out for the Gophers is taking care of the ball. Duke plays a swarming man-to-man that causes a lot of turnovers, something that has been a major struggle for Minnesota so far this year. If this ends up being a blow-out in Duke's favor this will be the reason why.
All-in-all, the Gophers have an excellent opportunity here to grab a big-time win. Their strengths have a chance to either neutralize Duke's strengths or exploit a Blue Devil weakness. The game should be a good one, and Kenpom.com calls it a 1-point Dukie victory. If the Gophers can take care of the ball, knock down open shots, control the paint, and limit Duke's three-point shooting they can win this game. To me, that's just too much to ask. Not to mention if the Gophers end up in a close game or have a small lead Coach K could coach circles around Tubby Smith, and no matter how well the Gophers play I don't know that they can overcome that advantage.
Duke 70, Minnesota 64.
In game 2 the Gophers will face either Memphis or VCU. Memphis is currently ranked in the high teens while VCU is just behind the Gophers in "others receiving votes", and although the Tigers would clearly be the higher profile win since they're considered a Final Four contender a win over either would go a long way in March.
Memphis has started slowly, winning both of their games so far but by just 15 or 11 against extremely poor competition (North Florida and Samford). They're not a very good shooting team and that's continued this season (just 29.4% from 3), and rely more on their guards slashing and getting into the paint through penetration - and they're very good at it. Joe Jackson, Antonio Barton, and Chris Crawford are a very good three guard lineup, but one the Gophers should be able to match-up with pretty well with the Hollins brothers. The issue lies with that third guard because Joe Coleman is absolutely brutal defensively and Julian Welch isn't quick enough. Memphis only has one true post player in Tarik Black who Mbakwe should be able to handle on his own, so I'd expect the Gophers to use Rodney on one of the guards and hope they can muster enough help defense so they don't get destroyed down low by Adonis Thomas. I don't like this match-up for the Gophers and I wouldn't expect them to win this game.
VCU, on the other hand, is a game Minnesota has to have if they want a good seed in March, particularly if they meet the Rams in the losers' bracket. That's not to say VCU is bad - you'd have to be a fool to overlook a Shaka Smart team at this point and the Rams should end up hovering around the top 25 all season - it's just that if the Gophers are the team I hope and think they can be this is a game they'll win.
VCU does return four starters from last year's team who won a game in the NCAA Tournament and their style makes me very nervous. VCU plays an attacking style of defense designed to force steals - and it works (VCU led the nation in steals last season with a mark that was the highest of the last four years). With all the guards the Gophers have on paper they should be able to handle this, but on paper they're also turning the ball over this year at a rate that's one of the worst in the country. When the Rams have the ball Minnesota should be able to handle them. Although they're a very athletic and balanced team they rely on those steals to key their offense. If Minnesota takes care of the basketball they should win - although that's a very big if.
Game three will come against one of Louisville, Northern Iowa, Missouri, or Stanford. I'd guess it'll be Louisville in the Championship, Missouri in the third place game, Stanford for consolation, and Northern Iowa in the worst case scenario.
Louisville is my pick for National Champ and they play an absolutely suffocating defense. They've crushed all three opponents this year by at least 26 points and although the competition has been poor their play is what you'd expect in those situations. While the Gophers play great shot defense and VCU creates a ton of turnovers the Cardinals do both. Their only real weakness is they aren't a great shooting team, but I don't think that would matter. I don't think the Gophers would have a prayer and would be lucky to get to 50 points. If they end up playing Louisville it's a success because it likely means they won two games already.
Missouri would be another extremely touch match-up for the Gophers simply because of their speed and back-court strength. They're very similar to VCU in style of play and personnel, with both teams playing a pressing, attacking style but not necessarily pushing tempo on offense. I would be pretty excited for this match-up, simply because I'd love to watch Andre Hollins go up against Phil Pressey, who I think is the best point guard in the NCAA. Actually, what I'd really love is for Hollins to just sit and watch tape of Pressey and absorb it, but somehow I think getting schooled by him might do it better. Best case? Hollins holds his own and is better than expected. Worst case? He learns and gets better. Win-win? Yes, I agree that's a pretty generous "worst case" but it's my blog so STFU.
If they end up playing Stanford or Northern Iowa something has gone wrong, although say, losing to Duke and then beating VCU wouldn't necessarily qualify as a disaster, but in any case they have absolutely got to beat either of these squads if they match-up. Stanford, the nerds who beat the Gophers in the NIT last year, have been dreadful this year and are one of the worst shooting teams in the country which you wouldn't expect from a bunch of nerds who should know geometry and angles and stuff. Maybe they aren't real smart kids but fake smart kids like when Doug was hired to be a lawyer on King of Queens just because he was good at softball. Northwestern should take notes. But anyway these dorks just lost to Belmont.
Northern Iowa, long removed from the great days of Ali Faroukmanesh, doesn't necessarily have a blemish on their record, but one of their wins was over a non D-I team and another took overtime to beat Toledo. Despite that level of competition they simply refuse to cause turnovers which means the one way to really beat the Gophers if you're worse than them is something the Panthers don't do. To lose this game would be a travesty like Super Bowl XL or Fletch 2.
Here are your acceptable outcomes:
1. Win the whole thing
2. Win the first two
3. Beat Duke (the next two don't matter if you get that one)
4. Win consolation
That's it. That means the Gophers, at a minimum, need to win two games or beat Duke in the first game. Anything else would be a failure. I don't like failure.
The Blue Devils are always good, but are generally at their best when they share the ball and have a wealth of scoring option rather than a single player who dominates the ball - which is how this team is constructed this year.
Center Mason Plumlee and wing Seth Curry are the two main pieces for the Dukies. Plumlee leads Duke in both scoring (21.7 per game) and rebounding (8.7) and has been extremely efficient this year hitting from the floor at a 77% clip. Obviously that's unsustainable, and according to what I've read about Plumlee he's pretty much been converting dunks and lay-ups and doesn't look to make any kind of actual post move very often. He's not particularly athletic or strong, so if Mbakwe is back to where he was last year he should be able to destroy him in the paint, and there's a non-zero possibility that he literally kills Plumlee with a dunk in his face. The way I think of it, and I apologize for this extremely nerdy analogy, is if you're playing chess and suddenly your opponent has his queen in your space and you know you're going to get destroyed, you just hope to hold on and minimize the damage. That's Mbakwe in this game because Plumlee is really the only post player Duke has and he can't handle Mbakwe. In fact, if I'm Coach K I figure out who Mbakwe is guarding (most likely Plumlee) and feed him the ball as often as possible after telling him his job is to draw fouls. I can see Mbakwe being so amped up for this game that he won't be able to settle down and two quick fouls is a very real, and very bad, possibility for the Gophers.
Curry, the brother of all-time chucker Stephen Curry, has a bit of chucker in him (he leads Duke in shot attempts) but plays more under control in Duke's system than his brother did. Between he and Rasheed Sulaimon the Gopher guards are going to have their hands full. Both can score inside or out and both hit 40% or better from three this season, and Sulaimon is a big-time distributor, averaging 3.7 assists and a total of 11 versus just 4 turnovers - great numbers for a freshman at the beginning of his career. Add in the mid-range game of Ryan Kelly (40% 3-pt shooter last year) and his ability to find the open man (2.7 assists per game this year for a 6-11 player) and if the Gophers try to play zone this game is already over.
The key for Minnesota will be in their defense, shooting, and taking care of the ball. That sounds like every game I know, but it's especially meaningful in this match-up. Duke has won (the three wins: Georgia State, Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast) by being an extremely efficient shooting team, whether due to shot selection, dead-eye accuracy, or a little of both. They shoot 38.4% from 3 this year (67th in the country) and 55.5% from two (33rd), and when combined that makes them the 28th best shooting team in the country. On the flip side, the Gophers are #1 in the country in opponent's effective field goal percentage, holding teams to 19.1% from three (#9) and 32.7% from two (3rd). That will likely be the main difference in the game.
The Gophers have big-time opportunities here in offensive rebounding and three-point shooting. Duke is not a particularly good defensive rebounding team where the Gophers excel at crashing the offensive glass, and Duke really struggles to defend the three (opponents shoot 40.8% behind the arc, 313th in the country). The Gophers aren't a great shooting team behind the line but they aren't terrible either, the key will be in knocking down those opportunities for open looks that Duke will definitely give up. The other watch-out for the Gophers is taking care of the ball. Duke plays a swarming man-to-man that causes a lot of turnovers, something that has been a major struggle for Minnesota so far this year. If this ends up being a blow-out in Duke's favor this will be the reason why.
All-in-all, the Gophers have an excellent opportunity here to grab a big-time win. Their strengths have a chance to either neutralize Duke's strengths or exploit a Blue Devil weakness. The game should be a good one, and Kenpom.com calls it a 1-point Dukie victory. If the Gophers can take care of the ball, knock down open shots, control the paint, and limit Duke's three-point shooting they can win this game. To me, that's just too much to ask. Not to mention if the Gophers end up in a close game or have a small lead Coach K could coach circles around Tubby Smith, and no matter how well the Gophers play I don't know that they can overcome that advantage.
Duke 70, Minnesota 64.
In game 2 the Gophers will face either Memphis or VCU. Memphis is currently ranked in the high teens while VCU is just behind the Gophers in "others receiving votes", and although the Tigers would clearly be the higher profile win since they're considered a Final Four contender a win over either would go a long way in March.
Memphis has started slowly, winning both of their games so far but by just 15 or 11 against extremely poor competition (North Florida and Samford). They're not a very good shooting team and that's continued this season (just 29.4% from 3), and rely more on their guards slashing and getting into the paint through penetration - and they're very good at it. Joe Jackson, Antonio Barton, and Chris Crawford are a very good three guard lineup, but one the Gophers should be able to match-up with pretty well with the Hollins brothers. The issue lies with that third guard because Joe Coleman is absolutely brutal defensively and Julian Welch isn't quick enough. Memphis only has one true post player in Tarik Black who Mbakwe should be able to handle on his own, so I'd expect the Gophers to use Rodney on one of the guards and hope they can muster enough help defense so they don't get destroyed down low by Adonis Thomas. I don't like this match-up for the Gophers and I wouldn't expect them to win this game.
VCU, on the other hand, is a game Minnesota has to have if they want a good seed in March, particularly if they meet the Rams in the losers' bracket. That's not to say VCU is bad - you'd have to be a fool to overlook a Shaka Smart team at this point and the Rams should end up hovering around the top 25 all season - it's just that if the Gophers are the team I hope and think they can be this is a game they'll win.
VCU does return four starters from last year's team who won a game in the NCAA Tournament and their style makes me very nervous. VCU plays an attacking style of defense designed to force steals - and it works (VCU led the nation in steals last season with a mark that was the highest of the last four years). With all the guards the Gophers have on paper they should be able to handle this, but on paper they're also turning the ball over this year at a rate that's one of the worst in the country. When the Rams have the ball Minnesota should be able to handle them. Although they're a very athletic and balanced team they rely on those steals to key their offense. If Minnesota takes care of the basketball they should win - although that's a very big if.
Game three will come against one of Louisville, Northern Iowa, Missouri, or Stanford. I'd guess it'll be Louisville in the Championship, Missouri in the third place game, Stanford for consolation, and Northern Iowa in the worst case scenario.
Louisville is my pick for National Champ and they play an absolutely suffocating defense. They've crushed all three opponents this year by at least 26 points and although the competition has been poor their play is what you'd expect in those situations. While the Gophers play great shot defense and VCU creates a ton of turnovers the Cardinals do both. Their only real weakness is they aren't a great shooting team, but I don't think that would matter. I don't think the Gophers would have a prayer and would be lucky to get to 50 points. If they end up playing Louisville it's a success because it likely means they won two games already.
Missouri would be another extremely touch match-up for the Gophers simply because of their speed and back-court strength. They're very similar to VCU in style of play and personnel, with both teams playing a pressing, attacking style but not necessarily pushing tempo on offense. I would be pretty excited for this match-up, simply because I'd love to watch Andre Hollins go up against Phil Pressey, who I think is the best point guard in the NCAA. Actually, what I'd really love is for Hollins to just sit and watch tape of Pressey and absorb it, but somehow I think getting schooled by him might do it better. Best case? Hollins holds his own and is better than expected. Worst case? He learns and gets better. Win-win? Yes, I agree that's a pretty generous "worst case" but it's my blog so STFU.
If they end up playing Stanford or Northern Iowa something has gone wrong, although say, losing to Duke and then beating VCU wouldn't necessarily qualify as a disaster, but in any case they have absolutely got to beat either of these squads if they match-up. Stanford, the nerds who beat the Gophers in the NIT last year, have been dreadful this year and are one of the worst shooting teams in the country which you wouldn't expect from a bunch of nerds who should know geometry and angles and stuff. Maybe they aren't real smart kids but fake smart kids like when Doug was hired to be a lawyer on King of Queens just because he was good at softball. Northwestern should take notes. But anyway these dorks just lost to Belmont.
Northern Iowa, long removed from the great days of Ali Faroukmanesh, doesn't necessarily have a blemish on their record, but one of their wins was over a non D-I team and another took overtime to beat Toledo. Despite that level of competition they simply refuse to cause turnovers which means the one way to really beat the Gophers if you're worse than them is something the Panthers don't do. To lose this game would be a travesty like Super Bowl XL or Fletch 2.
Here are your acceptable outcomes:
1. Win the whole thing
2. Win the first two
3. Beat Duke (the next two don't matter if you get that one)
4. Win consolation
That's it. That means the Gophers, at a minimum, need to win two games or beat Duke in the first game. Anything else would be a failure. I don't like failure.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Hello from Utah
What's up, nerds? Friday the family drove for 10 hours, stopped in Kearney, Nebraska for the night at a horrific Best Western, then continued on our way the next morning for another 11 hours before finally arriving in Utah to spend Thanksgiving here with the wife's family. Some day when I own my own plane things are going to be much easier. Anyway we'll be running around like crazy people I'm sure so I'm not exactly sure how much sports I'll get to watch, but there'll be downtime in the evenings so I'll be able to find time to check in once in a while. Like right now.
- Being in Utah means that the Big 10 Network is not available, and because we are "visiting family" the best I could do was check in on my phone, read texts from Snacks and Grand Slam, and check out the stats after the game. The 72-57 win over Richmond is a good margin and actually an easy cover, but from the looks of things this wasn't nearly that comfortable of a win.
The 19 turnovers are a terrifying amount for a team with NCAA aspirations and on the flip side turning Richmond over just 8 times is unacceptable for a team that prides itself on defense. Yeah, Richmond's two best players are their guards who both have plenty of experience handling pressure and I get that, but I still would have expected at least double digits. On the bright side the Gophers overall shot defense was once again outstanding (Richmond shot just 33% from the field and 20% from three) and rebounding (Gophers won, 37-20) were the difference, as well as Minnesota hitting from the field at a 57% clip.
The Gophers head into the Battle 4 Atlantis undefeated at 4-0 and this was the only game they've been remotely tested in. Although they responded nicely, outscoring Richmond by 14 in the second half, and in the process gave the Spiders' their first loss, but it was still against a Richmond team that will probably end up in the middle of the Atlantic 10 whose three wins so far were against terrible terrible horrible teams. I am very impressed with the Gophers' defense and rebounding (rank as the 3rd best defensive team in the country at kenpom) and it's nice to see Tubby shorten the bench and turn Mbakwe loose (9 points & 12 boards) but Duke is going to be a whole new class of opponent. I don't feel real good about this, but I can't say I'd be completely shocked if they end up pulling this off. Either way I can't wait to read about it the day after.
- Sticking with the Big 10, apparently the latest rumor is Maryland and Rutgers might be joining the conference. Since I don't really care about tradition or any of that stupid stuff and really just want the best possible basketball conference I can get with little to no regard to football, I'm on board with Maryland and would prefer they pass on Rutgers. What I've more recently heard is that if it becomes official that Maryland is joining that Syracuse might try to jump out of the ACC, which it just joined, to come over to the Big 10 instead which is far preferable to Rutgers. I'll have more of a post on this at some point but that's about all I got for now.
- Here's my posts from back in the day the first time I took in a Utah State game and the first time I visited Weber State.
- With the first slate of tournaments done here are some observations and notes to pay attention to because I know more than you.
- Being in Utah means that the Big 10 Network is not available, and because we are "visiting family" the best I could do was check in on my phone, read texts from Snacks and Grand Slam, and check out the stats after the game. The 72-57 win over Richmond is a good margin and actually an easy cover, but from the looks of things this wasn't nearly that comfortable of a win.
The 19 turnovers are a terrifying amount for a team with NCAA aspirations and on the flip side turning Richmond over just 8 times is unacceptable for a team that prides itself on defense. Yeah, Richmond's two best players are their guards who both have plenty of experience handling pressure and I get that, but I still would have expected at least double digits. On the bright side the Gophers overall shot defense was once again outstanding (Richmond shot just 33% from the field and 20% from three) and rebounding (Gophers won, 37-20) were the difference, as well as Minnesota hitting from the field at a 57% clip.
The Gophers head into the Battle 4 Atlantis undefeated at 4-0 and this was the only game they've been remotely tested in. Although they responded nicely, outscoring Richmond by 14 in the second half, and in the process gave the Spiders' their first loss, but it was still against a Richmond team that will probably end up in the middle of the Atlantic 10 whose three wins so far were against terrible terrible horrible teams. I am very impressed with the Gophers' defense and rebounding (rank as the 3rd best defensive team in the country at kenpom) and it's nice to see Tubby shorten the bench and turn Mbakwe loose (9 points & 12 boards) but Duke is going to be a whole new class of opponent. I don't feel real good about this, but I can't say I'd be completely shocked if they end up pulling this off. Either way I can't wait to read about it the day after.
- Sticking with the Big 10, apparently the latest rumor is Maryland and Rutgers might be joining the conference. Since I don't really care about tradition or any of that stupid stuff and really just want the best possible basketball conference I can get with little to no regard to football, I'm on board with Maryland and would prefer they pass on Rutgers. What I've more recently heard is that if it becomes official that Maryland is joining that Syracuse might try to jump out of the ACC, which it just joined, to come over to the Big 10 instead which is far preferable to Rutgers. I'll have more of a post on this at some point but that's about all I got for now.
- Here's my posts from back in the day the first time I took in a Utah State game and the first time I visited Weber State.
- With the first slate of tournaments done here are some observations and notes to pay attention to because I know more than you.
- Oklahoma State won the Puerto Rico Tip-off and was the most impressive team to me looking at their victories. They struggled to beat Akron in the opener and based on that game I thought the Cowboys looked pretty awful, but after topping the Zips in overtime they ripped off wins over Tennessee (by 17) and NC State (by 20) and announced the LeBryan Nash and Marcus Smart back-court combination as one of the best in the country. Nash is unstoppable when he posts up another guard because of his size and skill and it now looks like he's got a lot more talent around him than we thought. Looks like a legit team.
- The other team who impressed was Colorado which probably made you think this post was all like pro-Big 12 and stuff because you forgot Colorado was in the Pac-12 now. On their way to winning the Charleston Classic the Buffaloes beat Dayton (meh), Baylor (great win), and Murray State (good win). Colorado looks like it has a budding star in sophomore Askia Booker and with a good amount of returning talent, including post stud Andre Roberson, and a weak Pac-12 the Buffaloes are gonna be at the top of the conference and should be able to secure another bid this year.
- Future Gopher opponent Florida State won the Coaches vs. Cancer classic with wins over St. Joe's (good win) and BYU (very good win). These go a long way towards wiping out that crazy horrendous loss earlier this year to South Alabama. The Seminoles are back to being a really good team and a road win there would be a huge win on the Gophers' March resume.
- Penn State was the only Big 10 team involved at this point and they ended up going to the consolation game in the Puerto Rico game where they were stomped by Akron to finish in sixth place. That's a 1-2 overall record (additional loss to NC State and a win over Providence) and an altogether not very impressive tournament. But what'd you expect from Penn State? I mean really?
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
What did we Learn from the Marathon?
Unfortunately I couldn't make it to the Gophers latest butt whooping of Toledo but that doesn't stop me from having a couple of quick thoughts on the team and yes it feels a bit weird to have concerns about a team that's 2-0 with wins by 36 and 26 but here we are. I have 3.
1. I want to know what's going on with Trevor Mbakwe. His line looked better in this Toledo game (6 pts - 7 boards - 2 blks) but he still only played 14 minutes which is the same number of minutes he played in the game against American. Is he still hurt? Is this some sort of punishment? I'd really like to know.
2. Nineteen turnovers against Toledo? Gross. Loyola-Illinois, who is terrible, turned it over just 15 times against Toledo.
3. Is Andre Hollins ok? Maybe all the expectations are getting to him and he's pressing a bit (2-15 shooting so far, 4 TOs vs. 1 assist vs. Toledo) or maybe he's got something else going on in his head that's hurting his concentration (the shooting, plus five missed free throws already this year vs. just nine all of last season).
It's early and the team is winning, but all three of these need to get figured out before they start playing real games or they're going to be in trouble. This Thursday's game against Tennessee State is a losable game, so they may as well start playing better ASAP. The defense and rebounding have been absolutely outstanding, however, and that's a very good sign even against this level of competition. Small sample size and all, but kenpom rates the Gophers as the 8th best defensive team in the country statistically (includes rebounding) and that does take quality of competition into account (for example, American shot 24% against the Gophers and 53% in their next game against Quinnipiac - that bodes well for the Gophers).
Also, in case you were unaware somehow, ESPN just did a 24-hour college basketball marathon. Thanks to a flexible work environment that allows working from home and the miracle of internet access I was able to take in a decent amount of it. Here's what I thought was worth noting.
1. I watched the first half of Youngstown/Georgia (not part of the marathon) and figured Georgia's first half performance (3-24 shooting) would be the ugliest thing I saw all week, but I was wrong because West Virginia looked absolutely god awful in getting destroyed by Gonzaga. The Bulldogs also looked pretty good and definitely had something to do with it, but WVU just got destroyed on every level. Gonzaga had open shot after open shot (52% Shooting, 56% from 3) while WVU just threw up bricks (shot 27%, 11% from 3) and I saw at least two times in the first half where a Mountaineer 3-point attempt hit the backboard before it hit the rim. I'm sure WVU will end up being not this terrible since they're relying on three transfers to pretty much carry the team this year and that always seems to take a while to gel, but that was one of the ugliest performances I can remember watching from a team that was supposed to at least be in the mix for an at-large bid since every Gopher game ever.
2. Kendall Williams (New Mexico) is a stud PG. I didn't stay up late enough to watch this one after WVU put me to sleep, but Williams put up a line of 17 pts - 6 rebs - 7 assists - 0 turnovers. Nice.
3. The Gophers could have used Siyani Chambers. The freshman point guard from Hopkins ended up at Harvard because that was basically the only school that recruited him and oh my did he look good against UMass, nearly leading the Crimson to a big upset playing all 40 minutes and finishing with 14 pts, 5 rebs, and 7 assists to just 1 turnover and even more impressive than the stats was just watching him. He completely controlled the game when Harvard had the ball (his defense, on the other hand, was pretty atrocious). It got to the point where UMass won the game by doing everything possible to keep the ball out of his hands when they ran their press and then the Harvard dopes turned it over twice in the final minute leading to a pretty surprising comeback win for the Minutemen when it looked like this game was in the bag for Harvard. Anyway, this kids poise and ability to run an offense was shocking considering it was just his second game ever. I know we think we're in good shape with Andre Hollins, but I gotta say this looks like a whiff for Tubby (assuming he figures out the defense thing).
4. The Horizon race should be pretty good this year. Valpo killed Northern Illinois (not like that's hard) and Detroit was giving it to St. John's pretty good before they fell apart. I could see either team winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. Of course seeing as how those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference it probably means we can expect Cleveland State or something to get the auto-bid.
5. I thought this might be the worst version of Xavier we've seen in a very long time. Turns out it looks like this might be the worst version of Butler we've seen in a long time. I'm interested to see how this turns out with Brad Stevens if Butler bombs again. I realize he's built up all kinds of leeway with the back-to-back Finals runs, but the last couple of years have been really bad (if I'm right about this year) and if Butler doesn't get back to the tournament soon he's going to go from being known as a wunderkind to just another guy at a small school. He's already been replaced by Shaka Smart as the small school program builder who doesn't bolt du juor and with Tim Miles and John Groce (among others) taking advantage of March runs to move up in the world I wonder if Stevens has already blown his chance. Considering he was born in Indiana and never left he might not even care, which is good because soon he might not have a choice.
6. Michigan State and Kansas are going to be just fine. Not that there was ever much doubt, but both teams lost significant, and I mean significant, players from last season so there was part of me that wondered if they'd struggle but both looked very good in Michigan State's 67-64 victory. Both teams were a little sloppy (31 combined turnovers) but both offenses look to be almost in prime shape already. Keith Appling was sick (19 points and an insane lay-up to put MSU up 3 with 15 secs left) and Gary Harris joined him in the back court (18 points) to make the Spartans look like they might actually have the best guards in the Big 10 and Branden Dawson looks like he's all the way back from a knee injury. For Kansas it's much the same story with Ben McLemore and Elijah Johnson looking like they can step right in and be a very, very good pair of guards. What an awesome game this was. Although that final Kansas play looked very Tubby Smith-errific.
7. I have no idea how VCU got beaten by Wichita. VCU has their entire team back. Wichita has nobody back. I thought Wichita would finally fade away, but apparently they just re-load. Must be sweet.
8. Alex Poythress is ridiculous. I have no idea why I didn't know how athletic this guy is but I'd put him up there with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist last year. It's probably because his name sounds pretty nerdy. Honestly I couldn't even have told you if he was white or black before tonight because I didn't know anything about him, I just thought he sounded kind of like a nerd. He's not. He just dunks on Duke nerds' heads. He's like a taller Rico Tucker.
Realistically looking at the year prior (Championship) and the year after (have you seen that recruiting class?) this is the worst team of that three year span for Kentucky and it's not really even close, and yet I'd be shocked if they aren't in the Final Four this year again. Betwixt Calipari's ability to recruit the one-and-done type talent and the mystique and allure (good stripper names, fyi) of Kentucky that place is set up to be the closest thing to a dynasty since UCLA in the 60s or 70s or whatever. Maybe both. Effing Kareem.
9. The other day I went my whole family went to Joe's Crab Shack to celebrate my birthday and there was this dude at the table next to us who ate his corn on the cob with a fork. And I don't mean like that he cut the kernels off with a knife and then ate them like niblets, I mean he straight up just used his fork to scoop it right off the cob. I wasn't sure if it was impressive or not but then Snacks got his dainty thing on and was like "I hate corn on the cob because I don't like getting it in my teeth and stuff" and he tried it and couldn't do it. So basically this dude had a lifetime of experience of scooping corn kernels off the cob with a knife. He was like MacGyver crossed with Mr. Pitt. I didn't know if I should laugh or be impressed, but I certainly made sure to have everyone look. Changed my life.
1. I want to know what's going on with Trevor Mbakwe. His line looked better in this Toledo game (6 pts - 7 boards - 2 blks) but he still only played 14 minutes which is the same number of minutes he played in the game against American. Is he still hurt? Is this some sort of punishment? I'd really like to know.
2. Nineteen turnovers against Toledo? Gross. Loyola-Illinois, who is terrible, turned it over just 15 times against Toledo.
3. Is Andre Hollins ok? Maybe all the expectations are getting to him and he's pressing a bit (2-15 shooting so far, 4 TOs vs. 1 assist vs. Toledo) or maybe he's got something else going on in his head that's hurting his concentration (the shooting, plus five missed free throws already this year vs. just nine all of last season).
It's early and the team is winning, but all three of these need to get figured out before they start playing real games or they're going to be in trouble. This Thursday's game against Tennessee State is a losable game, so they may as well start playing better ASAP. The defense and rebounding have been absolutely outstanding, however, and that's a very good sign even against this level of competition. Small sample size and all, but kenpom rates the Gophers as the 8th best defensive team in the country statistically (includes rebounding) and that does take quality of competition into account (for example, American shot 24% against the Gophers and 53% in their next game against Quinnipiac - that bodes well for the Gophers).
Also, in case you were unaware somehow, ESPN just did a 24-hour college basketball marathon. Thanks to a flexible work environment that allows working from home and the miracle of internet access I was able to take in a decent amount of it. Here's what I thought was worth noting.
1. I watched the first half of Youngstown/Georgia (not part of the marathon) and figured Georgia's first half performance (3-24 shooting) would be the ugliest thing I saw all week, but I was wrong because West Virginia looked absolutely god awful in getting destroyed by Gonzaga. The Bulldogs also looked pretty good and definitely had something to do with it, but WVU just got destroyed on every level. Gonzaga had open shot after open shot (52% Shooting, 56% from 3) while WVU just threw up bricks (shot 27%, 11% from 3) and I saw at least two times in the first half where a Mountaineer 3-point attempt hit the backboard before it hit the rim. I'm sure WVU will end up being not this terrible since they're relying on three transfers to pretty much carry the team this year and that always seems to take a while to gel, but that was one of the ugliest performances I can remember watching from a team that was supposed to at least be in the mix for an at-large bid since every Gopher game ever.
2. Kendall Williams (New Mexico) is a stud PG. I didn't stay up late enough to watch this one after WVU put me to sleep, but Williams put up a line of 17 pts - 6 rebs - 7 assists - 0 turnovers. Nice.
3. The Gophers could have used Siyani Chambers. The freshman point guard from Hopkins ended up at Harvard because that was basically the only school that recruited him and oh my did he look good against UMass, nearly leading the Crimson to a big upset playing all 40 minutes and finishing with 14 pts, 5 rebs, and 7 assists to just 1 turnover and even more impressive than the stats was just watching him. He completely controlled the game when Harvard had the ball (his defense, on the other hand, was pretty atrocious). It got to the point where UMass won the game by doing everything possible to keep the ball out of his hands when they ran their press and then the Harvard dopes turned it over twice in the final minute leading to a pretty surprising comeback win for the Minutemen when it looked like this game was in the bag for Harvard. Anyway, this kids poise and ability to run an offense was shocking considering it was just his second game ever. I know we think we're in good shape with Andre Hollins, but I gotta say this looks like a whiff for Tubby (assuming he figures out the defense thing).
4. The Horizon race should be pretty good this year. Valpo killed Northern Illinois (not like that's hard) and Detroit was giving it to St. John's pretty good before they fell apart. I could see either team winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. Of course seeing as how those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference it probably means we can expect Cleveland State or something to get the auto-bid.
5. I thought this might be the worst version of Xavier we've seen in a very long time. Turns out it looks like this might be the worst version of Butler we've seen in a long time. I'm interested to see how this turns out with Brad Stevens if Butler bombs again. I realize he's built up all kinds of leeway with the back-to-back Finals runs, but the last couple of years have been really bad (if I'm right about this year) and if Butler doesn't get back to the tournament soon he's going to go from being known as a wunderkind to just another guy at a small school. He's already been replaced by Shaka Smart as the small school program builder who doesn't bolt du juor and with Tim Miles and John Groce (among others) taking advantage of March runs to move up in the world I wonder if Stevens has already blown his chance. Considering he was born in Indiana and never left he might not even care, which is good because soon he might not have a choice.
6. Michigan State and Kansas are going to be just fine. Not that there was ever much doubt, but both teams lost significant, and I mean significant, players from last season so there was part of me that wondered if they'd struggle but both looked very good in Michigan State's 67-64 victory. Both teams were a little sloppy (31 combined turnovers) but both offenses look to be almost in prime shape already. Keith Appling was sick (19 points and an insane lay-up to put MSU up 3 with 15 secs left) and Gary Harris joined him in the back court (18 points) to make the Spartans look like they might actually have the best guards in the Big 10 and Branden Dawson looks like he's all the way back from a knee injury. For Kansas it's much the same story with Ben McLemore and Elijah Johnson looking like they can step right in and be a very, very good pair of guards. What an awesome game this was. Although that final Kansas play looked very Tubby Smith-errific.
7. I have no idea how VCU got beaten by Wichita. VCU has their entire team back. Wichita has nobody back. I thought Wichita would finally fade away, but apparently they just re-load. Must be sweet.
8. Alex Poythress is ridiculous. I have no idea why I didn't know how athletic this guy is but I'd put him up there with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist last year. It's probably because his name sounds pretty nerdy. Honestly I couldn't even have told you if he was white or black before tonight because I didn't know anything about him, I just thought he sounded kind of like a nerd. He's not. He just dunks on Duke nerds' heads. He's like a taller Rico Tucker.
Realistically looking at the year prior (Championship) and the year after (have you seen that recruiting class?) this is the worst team of that three year span for Kentucky and it's not really even close, and yet I'd be shocked if they aren't in the Final Four this year again. Betwixt Calipari's ability to recruit the one-and-done type talent and the mystique and allure (good stripper names, fyi) of Kentucky that place is set up to be the closest thing to a dynasty since UCLA in the 60s or 70s or whatever. Maybe both. Effing Kareem.
9. The other day I went my whole family went to Joe's Crab Shack to celebrate my birthday and there was this dude at the table next to us who ate his corn on the cob with a fork. And I don't mean like that he cut the kernels off with a knife and then ate them like niblets, I mean he straight up just used his fork to scoop it right off the cob. I wasn't sure if it was impressive or not but then Snacks got his dainty thing on and was like "I hate corn on the cob because I don't like getting it in my teeth and stuff" and he tried it and couldn't do it. So basically this dude had a lifetime of experience of scooping corn kernels off the cob with a knife. He was like MacGyver crossed with Mr. Pitt. I didn't know if I should laugh or be impressed, but I certainly made sure to have everyone look. Changed my life.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #11-7
Apparently the lastest news, apart from some kind of election or something that is going on, is that the Twins are apparently interested in trading for James Shields of the Rays. I'm not sure I'm buying that this team would do such a drastic move but that would be pretty sweet. If they trade for Shields and sign someone like Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson suddenly everything looks a whole lot better. Then your rotation is Shields/McCarthy or Jackson/Diamond/Baker and then that whole mess of young dorks. I feel pretty good about throwing all those guys into a competition for the fifth starter, especially as compared to needed three of them to be in the rotation as we stand now.
And what would it take to get Shields? Denard Span at a minimum, but with the Rays needed to shed Shields salary and Span's contract is so team friendly through 2015 they might be willing to do it for just him, especially since they're expecting B.J. Upton to sign elsewhere so they'll need a CF. I'm willing to give up Span as much as I like him just because Ben Revere's skill set is so close to his so losing Span doesn't really hurt that much. The other rumor is they might want either Parmelee or Morneau as well to fill that black hole at first that is Carlos Pena, and I'd be fine giving up either to get Shields. I'd be a little bit surprised if they want Morneau because of his salary, but if they can talk the Twins into picking up a chunk of his money then it could happen. Either way making that trade significantly upgrades the rotation without hurting the lineup too much, so it's got to happen. Which means it won't.
On to the stuff:
11. Ohio State Buckeyes. I don't really get the high ranking for Ohio State in all the polls. To be honest, I think 11 is a little bit high but I don't want to look like too big of an idiot and have them at 20 or something. I know DeShaun Thomas is a scoring machine and I know Aaron Craft is a very, very good on ball defender, but beyond that everything is a mystery. Can Craft excel when he has to be more the focal point of the offense? Will that make his defense suffer? Can Lenzelle Smith stop shooting bricks and become the scorer and shooter the Buckeyes need? Sam Thompson and Amir Williams certainly have the pedigree to become stars or at least quality starters, but will they? They're about to go from benchwarmer minutes to starters. There's a shit load of other guys here too who have really impressive high school stats and good rankings when they came out, but they haven't proven anything. Maybe Ohio State will be really good and be a Final Four contender yet again, but there are just way too many questions for me to have them in my top 10, let alone top 5. Ask Jonathan Bender, Charles Rogers, and Brien Taylor about potential.
10. Missouri Tigers. I just read a thing on ESPN where they said the Tigers have the best back court in America and you know how much I love guards. Mizzou would normally be in tough straights losing four starters off of last year's squad, but for whatever reason they've become a transfer haven lately and should be a getting a massive boost. They will once again be mainly perimeter oriented, but Alex Oriakhi is in from UCONN and Laurence Bowers is back after an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of last season and those two alone are some considerable talent up front. They have maybe the most fun PG to watch in the country (outside Andre Hollins of course) back in Phil Pressey as well as last year's sixth man Michael Dixon and add a whole mess of talented wing guys from Oregon, Auburn, and Pepperdine. That, my friends, is a well built, well balanced team who is also going to run the hell out of you. So much fun to watch. There's a reason why I have a Missouri sweatshirt. Mainly because it was $7 at Barry & Steve's. RIP.
9. Florida Gators. The Gators are similar to Missouri in that they are perimeter oriented and I own or once owned a $7 sweatshirt from Barry & Steve's of them, but while Missouri probably has more questions the Gators might be looking at the biggest question: who replaces Erving Walker? Yeah, Bradley Beal is gone to the NBA and he was a bigger scorer than Walker, but Mike Rosario (former Rutgers dude and a big-time recruit) should be just fine stepping in, while Walker has been the team's starting PG for the last four years and there's no obvious replacement. Kenny Boynton could slide over but he really, really loves to shoot (although in fairness so did Walker). The other choices are a freshman (#7 PG frosh in the country by ESPN but still) or a junior who averaged just 15 minutes and 2.6 ppg last season. As long as they figure that out they'll be a Final Four candidate because they're loaded with talent, and since Billy Donovan is a disciple of college basketball coaching jesus I'm sure the Gators will be just fine. I really wish I knew what I did with that damn sweatshirt. I want to wear it when they make the Final Four.
8. Duke Blue Devils. More like Puke, am I right? I think I made that joke last year, but I, like the majority of America, just really dislike these guys. Partially it's the overall douchbaggery, partially it's the entitlement, partially it's the reverence the national media bestows upon them, partially it's the constant whining of their rat-faced coach, and partially it's that they have a little floor-slapping weiner named Wojo as their big man coach. Oh, you weren't aware? Yes, Floppy McDiveonfloor himself is Duke's big man coach. Suddenly it seems less of a wonder that they haven't had a good big man since Elton Brand when the guy who is supposed to be developing all this front line talent (and they still get the talent, it just never develops) is busy teaching them how to draw charges and miss three pointers. Hopefully that never changes. In conclusion, Duke will be pretty good all year and then lose in the first or second round of the tournament and America will once again rejoice amen.
7. Kentucky Wildcats. How exactly do you write about a team that has turned over it's entire roster? Oh yeah, Kyle Wiltjer is back and is supposed to be pretty good and stuff. Ryan Harrow will be the starting PG this year and I remember him from his NC State days, he was pretty good. And the rest is transfers, guys who didn't play last year, and freshmen. And yes, once again they're a really good group of recruits and next year is shaping up to be even stronger. Say what you will about Calipari, like that if he and an orange were having a coaching battle I'd take Cal but I'd have to think about it, but he figured the game out before anyone else. While most coaches were fighting the one-and-done culture and trying to figure out how to get kids to stay he embraced it and made it part of his team's model to the point where he can nearly pick and choose his recruits knowing that Calipari and Kentucky will embrace the fact that he'll only be there for a single season. That, as well as Calipari's record with getting the most from his kids in that single year and getting them drafted, is awfully attractive for that very top tier talent. He's made it work, he beat everyone else to it, and now he's got a dynasty on his hands and there's no reason to think it's going to stop any time soon. You've got to give him credit for that. I will now go wander into rush hour traffic.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Teams #25-20
Team #19 (GOPHERS)
Teams #18-12
And what would it take to get Shields? Denard Span at a minimum, but with the Rays needed to shed Shields salary and Span's contract is so team friendly through 2015 they might be willing to do it for just him, especially since they're expecting B.J. Upton to sign elsewhere so they'll need a CF. I'm willing to give up Span as much as I like him just because Ben Revere's skill set is so close to his so losing Span doesn't really hurt that much. The other rumor is they might want either Parmelee or Morneau as well to fill that black hole at first that is Carlos Pena, and I'd be fine giving up either to get Shields. I'd be a little bit surprised if they want Morneau because of his salary, but if they can talk the Twins into picking up a chunk of his money then it could happen. Either way making that trade significantly upgrades the rotation without hurting the lineup too much, so it's got to happen. Which means it won't.
On to the stuff:
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Teams #25-20
Team #19 (GOPHERS)
Teams #18-12
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Week in Review - 2/13/2011
There are no word about the Gophers, or at least nothing more than a throwaway line here and there, in the below post. Mainly because they didn't play this weekend. I ripped off about 1,200 words after the loss to the dirty dirtball Sconnies, and I don't really feel the need to do it again when nothing has changed. Plus there was only one comment left after that post where I poured out my heart and thoughts and so you asshole don't deserve any more. You're lucky I post at all.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
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