Game Preview: Gophers vs. Buckeyes

Well that Iowa game was certainly demoralizing.  I think anybody who was holding out hope, like I have to admit I was, that that rough stretch was simply that - a rough stretch - can now stop holding out hope, whatever that means.  After looking like world beaters to begin the year, the Gophers are now 3-7 in their last ten with those three wins all coming at home versus a terrible Nebraska team, a last second miracle win over Iowa, and a lucky OT win versus Wisconsin.  Gross.  The weaknesses (turnovers, outside shooting) have continued to be weaknesses while one of the team's biggest strengths (defense) has disappeared.  Combine that with the team's continued inability to generate offense versus a zone (seriously, have you ever seen anything worse than that last Iowa game) and the Gophers have turned from a sleeper Final Four candidate to a team that will crawl into the NCAA Tournament based on strong computer numbers and a hot start.  I cannot wait to bet against them in the first round.  BOATLOADS.  And it's too bad too, because Ohio State is a vulnerable team.

There's nothing bad here in Ohio State's record.  Their only home losses have been to Indiana and Kansas and they do have a nice home win over Michigan that they almost blew, but over their last 8 games they only thing resembling a good win is at home over Wisconsin, and they're coming off an absolutely embarrassing blowout loss in Madison.  If they were facing a good team that played good defense, this could be a good spot for an upset.  Alas.

The reason I think the Buckeyes are a vulnerable team is that their offense is basically DeShaun Thomas.  They play great defense (believe it or not Aaron Craft is actually not overrated) but if a team could find a way to limit Thomas (and good luck because the only times he's scored less than 16 in a game this year were blowout wins for OSU) they'd have a shot because nobody else is a reliable scorer.  Ohio State has a ton of great athletes, but none are very effective scorers and there is nobody who can score on the block as  Evan Ravenel, Trey McDonald, and Amir Williams are more defense and rebounding at this point (well, Ravenel is a senior so I guess this is as good as it gets for him) so neither would require any doubling.  LaQuinton Ross and Lenzelle Smith are big and athletic but are pretty raw wing players, while Aaron Craft can't shoot, Sam Thompson is an athlete more than a scorer (think Rodney), and Shannon Scott is a very good guard but not a scorer.

The way to beat OSU is actually pretty simple - have a dominant inside presence with good wing defense and you'll be in the game (at least on the defensive side of the ball).  The Gophers should have that.  Mbakwe, Williams, and Elliason shouldn't require any help when the Buckeye big guys get the ball down low, so the perimeter defense shouldn't have to scramble to cover open shooters (and Thomas, Scott, Ross, and Smith can all hit the three).  There should be zero doubling at all, and at absolutely no time should Austin Hollins (or Williams) leave Thomas - EVER.  Unfortunately we've seen this play out too many times, and somehow the Gophers will still manage to leave shooters open time after time.

And, as much as there is a good blueprint on taking down Ohio State, there's an even easier one for beating Minnesota - play zone, which the Buckeyes will early and often.

Ohio State 70, Minnesota 51

DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #11-7

Apparently the lastest news, apart from some kind of election or something that is going on, is that the Twins are apparently interested in trading for James Shields of the Rays.  I'm not sure I'm buying that this team would do such a drastic move but that would be pretty sweet.  If they trade for Shields and sign someone like Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson suddenly everything looks a whole lot better.  Then your rotation is Shields/McCarthy or Jackson/Diamond/Baker and then that whole mess of young dorks.  I feel pretty good about throwing all those guys into a competition for the fifth starter, especially as compared to needed three of them to be in the rotation as we stand now.

And what would it take to get Shields?  Denard Span at a minimum, but with the Rays needed to shed Shields salary and Span's contract is so team friendly through 2015 they might be willing to do it for just him, especially since they're expecting B.J. Upton to sign elsewhere so they'll need a CF.  I'm willing to give up Span as much as I like him just because Ben Revere's skill set is so close to his so losing Span doesn't really hurt that much.  The other rumor is they might want either Parmelee or Morneau as well to fill that black hole at first that is Carlos Pena, and I'd be fine giving up either to get Shields.  I'd be a little bit surprised if they want Morneau because of his salary, but if they can talk the Twins into picking up a chunk of his money then it could happen.  Either way making that trade significantly upgrades the rotation without hurting the lineup too much, so it's got to happen.  Which means it won't. 

On to the stuff:
 

11.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  I don't really get the high ranking for Ohio State in all the polls.  To be honest, I think 11 is a little bit high but I don't want to look like too big of an idiot and have them at 20 or something.  I know DeShaun Thomas is a scoring machine and I know Aaron Craft is a very, very good on ball defender, but beyond that everything is a mystery.  Can Craft excel when he has to be more the focal point of the offense?  Will that make his defense suffer?  Can Lenzelle Smith stop shooting bricks and become the scorer and shooter the Buckeyes need?  Sam Thompson and Amir Williams certainly have the pedigree to become stars or at least quality starters, but will they?  They're about to go from benchwarmer minutes to starters.  There's a shit load of other guys here too who have really impressive high school stats and good rankings when they came out, but they haven't proven anything.  Maybe Ohio State will be really good and be a Final Four contender yet again, but there are just way too many questions for me to have them in my top 10, let alone top 5.  Ask Jonathan Bender, Charles Rogers, and Brien Taylor about potential. 

10.  Missouri Tigers. I just read a thing on ESPN where they said the Tigers have the best back court in America and you know how much I love guards.  Mizzou would normally be in tough straights losing four starters off of last year's squad, but for whatever reason they've become a transfer haven lately and should be a getting a massive boost.   They will once again be mainly perimeter oriented, but Alex Oriakhi is in from UCONN and Laurence Bowers is back after an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of last season and those two alone are some considerable talent up front.  They have maybe the most fun PG to watch in the country (outside Andre Hollins of course) back in Phil Pressey as well as last year's sixth man Michael Dixon and add a whole mess of talented wing guys from Oregon, Auburn, and Pepperdine.  That, my friends, is a well built, well balanced team who is also going to run the hell out of you.  So much fun to watch.  There's a reason why I have a Missouri sweatshirt.  Mainly because it was $7 at Barry & Steve's.  RIP.

9.  Florida Gators.  The Gators are similar to Missouri in that they are perimeter oriented and I own or once owned a $7 sweatshirt from Barry & Steve's of them, but while Missouri probably has more questions the Gators might be looking at the biggest question:  who replaces Erving Walker?  Yeah, Bradley Beal is gone to the NBA and he was a bigger scorer than Walker, but Mike Rosario (former Rutgers dude and a big-time recruit) should be just fine stepping in, while Walker has been the team's starting PG for the last four years and there's no obvious replacement.  Kenny Boynton could slide over but he really, really loves to shoot (although in fairness so did Walker).  The other choices are a freshman (#7 PG frosh in the country by ESPN but still) or a junior who averaged just 15 minutes and 2.6 ppg last season.  As long as they figure that out they'll be a Final Four candidate because they're loaded with talent, and since Billy Donovan is a disciple of college basketball coaching jesus I'm sure the Gators will be just fine.  I really wish I knew what I did with that damn sweatshirt.  I want to wear it when they make the Final Four.

8.  Duke Blue Devils.  More like Puke, am I right?  I think I made that joke last year, but I, like the majority of America, just really dislike these guys.  Partially it's the overall douchbaggery, partially it's the entitlement, partially it's the reverence the national media bestows upon them, partially it's the constant whining of their rat-faced coach, and partially it's that they have a little floor-slapping weiner named Wojo as their big man coach.  Oh, you weren't aware?  Yes, Floppy McDiveonfloor himself is Duke's big man coach.  Suddenly it seems less of a wonder that they haven't had a good big man since Elton Brand when the guy who is supposed to be developing all this front line talent (and they still get the talent, it just never develops) is busy teaching them how to draw charges and miss three pointers.  Hopefully that never changes.  In conclusion, Duke will be pretty good all year and then lose in the first or second round of the tournament and America will once again rejoice amen.

7.  Kentucky Wildcats.  How exactly do you write about a team that has turned over it's entire roster?  Oh yeah, Kyle Wiltjer is back and is supposed to be pretty good and stuff.  Ryan Harrow will be the starting PG this year and I remember him from his NC State days, he was pretty good.  And the rest is transfers, guys who didn't play last year, and freshmen.  And yes, once again they're a really good group of recruits and next year is shaping up to be even stronger.  Say what you will about Calipari, like that if he and an orange were having a coaching battle I'd take Cal but I'd have to think about it, but he figured the game out before anyone else.  While most coaches were fighting the one-and-done culture and trying to figure out how to get kids to stay he embraced it and made it part of his team's model to the point where he can nearly pick and choose his recruits knowing that Calipari and Kentucky will embrace the fact that he'll only be there for a single season.  That, as well as Calipari's record with getting the most from his kids in that single year and getting them drafted, is awfully attractive for that very top tier talent.  He's made it work, he beat everyone else to it, and now he's got a dynasty on his hands and there's no reason to think it's going to stop any time soon.  You've got to give him credit for that.  I will now go wander into rush hour traffic.

Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34 
Teams #33-26 
Teams #25-20 
Team #19 (GOPHERS) 
Teams #18-12

Mini-Preview: Gophers vs. Buckeyes

I suppose I should write a preview here.  Can't imagine why, so it'll be short. 

Ohio State is one of the best teams in college ball, but as long as William Buford keeps playing with his head up his rectum and continues to not bring his jump shot to the games they are vulnerable.  The problem is they aren't exactly vulnerable to a team like the Gophers.  Even if Buford fell off the bus getting to the arena and broke his face off and couldn't play they'd still be a prohibitive favorite.  They are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and for an offensively challenged Gopher squad every point is going to be a struggle.  I did read somewhere yesterday that Ohio State's guards and big men struggle with ball screens (I think it was on Grantland.com), but unfortunately the Gophers don't really have the guards to take advantage of that.  Something to keep an eye on, because if the Gophers manage to stay in this one it's going to take having at least one guard (Dre Westbrook?) and at least one forward/center (Rodney?) running the pick-and-roll to near perfection.

Offensively there is also a tiny bit of good news.  The Gophers biggest weakness, as we all know for years and years, has been giving up too many open 3-pointers and Ohio State is a terrible shooting three-point team, especially with Buford apparently shooting left-handed or something.  But that's it for good news.  I have no idea how they're going to handle Sullinger with one guy who is too passive and one guy who is too clumsy and slow.  I fully expect we'll see a large dose of Andre Ingram tonight because Ralph and/or Elliason will be on the shelf with foul trouble.  I do hope Rodney Williams matches straight up with DeShaun Thomas, because I would actually love to see that matchup and see how Rodney fares.

So if the Gophers figure out a way to limit Sullinger, get some offense out of Ralph, Rodney can slow Thomas, and they can use ball screens to get in the lane and get good shots, they can hang.  I'm not expecting any of those things to happen.  I expect to see Aaron Craft and company be all over the Gopher guards in the half-court, causing a turnover-fest, and I expect them to feed Sullinger the ball where he will either score or find an open teammate for a shot when they double him.  Whether or not those shots go down will decide if this is an easy Ohio State win or a complete blow-out.

Ohio State 68, Minnesota 52

Monday Musings (and good-bye, my love)

You know what's crazy?  I am super excited for the NBA to be back.  Actually I guess that's not all that crazy because I get excited for the NBA every single year.  I get all jacked up and decide that I'm going to really dedicate myself to following the NBA all season long rather than just jumping in for the playoffs, and it's finally time to really become an NBA fan.  Then, at some point in the second quarter, I watch  a defender not fight through a screen, the picker not roll, the wide open jump shooter clang it off the rim and the team with the ball getting a put back basket because nobody boxed out and the only one who jumped for teh rebound was the 2nd year power forward who still tried on every play.  And now they're playing back-to-back-to-backs and 66 games in like, 3 months or something like that.

Yet, here I am, getting all excited to watch the NBA on Christmas Day.  God I'm so dumb.  Here's some other quick stuff, in lieu of a Week in Review post which I was too lazy to write.

-  I guess the most obvious thing is the sad news that Jason Kubel will no longer be a Twin after signing for 2 years, $15 million with the D-Backs.  I've been pissed off at signings before (when Mussina left the O's for the Yankees I swore off baseball - for some reason I grew up a rabid Oriole fan), and others moves have left me stunned (when Brunansky was traded for Herr I distinctly remember calling my dad a liar, which he wasn't pleased about), but this is the first time I've been broken hearted, or at least as broken hearted as a reasonably rational adult male can be about sports.

I can't even be mad.  That 2 year, $15 million dollar deal is probably more than Kubel is worth considering he's a poor fielder, struggles against lefties, and has trouble staying healthy so I can't be mad at him for taking it or mad at the Twins for not matching/beating it (although I am a bit perturbed that they seemingly wrote him off and never seemed to care about trying to retain him).  So that's why I'm just sad, not angry at anybody.

I don't even know why I love Kubel so much, but I know his is one of only two articles of clothing I own with another man's name on the back (I also have a Denard Span shirt for some reason).  He is also the first player who I ever broke down and bought a shirt/jersey off with my own money (at other points I had owned a LaDainian Tomlinson jersey and a Randy Moss jersey - both gifts).  He's not particularly fast, or athletic, or anything.  His best skill is hitting the baseball, but he'll never be confused with Albert Pujols.  He doesn't even have the small, scrappy gamer thing going for him (although that would have made me hate him).  I think the reason Kubel is so loved, by me and many others, is because he seems like an every man.  Just a cool, laid back dude who would love to play softball and then pounds some beers.  Except in his case instead of softball he crushes pitches from the best baseball throwers in the world and gets millions to do it. 

Obviously I won't be able to follow his career as closely when he ships on over to the land where games start at 10:30pm, but god knows I'll try.  I'm not sure anybody will ever surpass him as my favorite Twin.  And yet we're stuck with Joe fucking Mauer and his enema of a contract and Justin Morneau who may or may not know what year it is.  This blows.

Tell me this guy wouldn't love to destroy you at Beer Pong.

-  On to other, less soul crushing things, you know all that talk about how great Cody Zeller was going to be right off the bat and was the kind of player who could turn Indiana's program right around?  Well I think for once the hype was right because I had a chance to actually watch this dude against Notre Dame (a game the Hoosiers won by 11) and he's absolutely the real deal.  There was one play where he blocked a lay-up attempt some some poor bastard on the Irish, then beat the defense down the court for an easy score.  He's really athletic for his size, very polished for a freshman, and can pass like a guard, and is like whoa.  I now feel very dirty for liking a Hoosier this much.  I'm going to go take like, six showers and then burn myself with matches.

-  As long as I'm talkin' Big Ten players who brokeout or whatever I guess we should talk DeShaun Thomas after his 30 point outburst against South Carolina (on 13-16 shooting!!) which followed his 23-point game (on 10-15 shooting).  Not surprising, since if you watched Thomas last year you could see he had the potential to be a big time scorer and I'm pretty sure he led the nation in points per minute last year (and shots per minute).  When he's hot and hitting he's going to put up major points since he's basically always taking a heat check, and he's been on fire lately which is good timing since Sullinger has a constant hangnail or something.  Of course, it's going to also be fun when he goes 1-14 in a game and shoots the Buckeyes into a loss.  Hopefully against the Gophers.  Ok I laughed when I typed that.


-  Sticking with the Big 10, just when you think everything is hunky dory along comes to Purdue to mess everything up by losing to Butler (Illinois lost a home game to UNLV as well, but that's at least understandable).  Now, in case you haven't been paying attention this year Butler isn't the same Butler they've been for the last several seasons - they straight up suck.  They were 4-6 going into the Purdue game, and that includes losses to Ball State, Valpo, and Evansville, with their wins coming against three truly dreadful teams and a D-II opponent.  And yet Purdue managed to lose on a tip-in at the buzzer on a neutral court.  Ouch.  It's probably the worst loss by a Big Ten team other than Nebraska, Penn State, or Iowa.  Nice work, dingleberries.
- Sigh.  I hate this, but it's time to admit that Washington, although the most fun team to watch ever, are pretty clearly not an NCAA caliber team.  A completely embarrassing loss to South Dakota State - at home by 19 - slams that home pretty clearly and drops Washington to 5-5 on the season.  I suppose none of the other losses are that bad by themselves (@ St. Louis, @ Nevada in OT, and versus Marquette and Duke in Madison Square Garden) but good god, a 20 pt loss to SDSU?  Maybe I'm overreacting but I'm just disgusted.  South Dakota State opened up a 35-14 lead early and never looked back, riding 55% shooting (10-16 from 3), and 26-32 free throw shooting to an easy, and shocking, win.  I suppose whenever a Pac-10 team loses it shouldn't be a surprise (Arizona also got blown out by Gonzaga), but damn, this is just sad.  I miss Captain Circus Ball.

- Ha-ha, stupid Packers.  Go around all cockin' off about how you were gonna go for the perfect season and guess what happens?  You get punched in the mouth by a crappy crap team with a 40 year old running  back, a QB nobody wants, very little talent, and a completely dopey head coach.  On one hand, it's possible this loss refocuses them and they get better, but on the other hand a perfect Packer season is more than I could possibly take and either end up killing myself or somebody would end up dead after I raged out.  It was so fun watching the last two minutes of the game where the Packers needed a stop badly but their little sissy soft defense full of nancy boy hippy girls couldn't stop the Chiefs running game even when they knew damn well a running play was coming.  Seemed like all the talk about the Packer D being statistically poor only because they always had the lead might have just been wishful thinking, because these guys are freaking terrible.  In conclusion, go to hell Green Bay.


Seriously though.  I feel like Mel Gibson in that movie where he's all like "Give me back my Kubel!"  You know what I'm talking about.  The only thing cheering me up at all is I just saw the Christmas card we got from $nake and guess what?  His youngest son is wearing a Yankee cap in the picture they used.  A Yankee cap.  The Yankees.  The New York Yankees.  Jesus, what an asshole.

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

As a famous computer programmer once said, "Hold on to your butts."

Of course, he also got eaten by a velociraptor, and that's probably a good metaphor for what is likely to happen to the Gophers on Sunday in Columbus, because these guys have stomped on basically everybody, and the Gophers haven't looked good competent since Puerto Rico.  I mean, really.  They have no weaknesses.

Stats wise (via kenpom.com) they are scary.  They are the #2 team in the country (behind Duke).  They have the 3rd most efficient offense (behind Duke and Pitt), and the 2nd most efficient defense (behind Kansas).  They don't turn the ball over (11th) while turning you over constantly (2nd).  They don't let you get to the line (1st), grab a ton of offensive rebounds (24th), while never letting you get an offensive rebound (24th).  They shoot very well (5th in effective FG%), both from 2 (56.2% - 8th) and three (39.9% - 22nd) and share the ball well (54th).  The only weakness you can find in the stats is that they don't get to the line much (269th), and are only slightly above average at shooting free-throws (69.2%).  They aren't the best at defending the three pointer (allow 33.1%, slightly better than the national average), but against a team like the Gophers will only one shooter, that doesn't matter?

So statswise things look bleak for the Gophers, but how about the eye test?  Inside they have the size to deal with the Gophers' big men with Dallas Lauderdale and Jared Sullinger, with Lauderdale bringing the defense, Sullinger the offense, and both grabbing a shit-ton of rebounds.  Lauderdale on his own would give them fits, but Sullinger is just so unbelievably good he could swing the balance of a game on his own.  His stats are very similar to our own Trevor Mbakwe's, and they're built similarly, but the big difference between the two is footwork and technique.  While Mbake's game is almost solely built around his strength and athletic ability, Sullinger has that plus great footwork, which leads to a lot of drop-steps into layups, and the ability to hit a jumper once in a while.  I fully, fully expect this to be Mbakwe's worst statistical game this year, because I expect Sullinger to get him in foul trouble early and keep him there.

If that's not enough, their three wings - William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler - are offensive weapons as well.  Diebler is the best shooter in the Big Ten, not only does he hit a high percentage (51% this year) but he also shoots at a high volume, and because of his height and athleticism (which still isn't great but is better than Hoffarber) he can get open more often, not to mention with all the attentions his teammates take away from him he has more chances to spot up.  Meanwhile Lighty and Buford are essentially two mini-Evan Turners and clones of each other - they do it all.  They can both handle the ball, both can drive, both can score inside, both can shoot from both three and mid-range, and both play excellent defense.  Any team would be lucky to have one of these guys, and the Buckeyes have both.

And just in case you were hoping that their one question mark coming into the season (point guard play) might have developed into a weakness you can forget it.  Freshman Aaron Craft has acclimated himself quickly, ranking third in the Big Ten in assists (4.9 per game) with a 2.5-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and shoots better than 50% from the floor.  Yeah, they're just fine.

And if you're thinking they don't go very deep and only play seven guys so maybe getting somebody into foul trouble would help, you're wrong.  First, as mentioned before, they don't really commit fouls.  Only Buford and Craft have fouled out for OSU this year (once each), and neither Sullinger or Lauderdale have been in foul trouble much if at all.  Second, even if somebody fouls out, they still have all those offensive weapons I mentioned above who can just step in.  Third, I haven't even mentioned DeShaun Thomas, a highly regarded freshman who is averaging 11 points per game in just seventeen minutes and is looking like another Turner/Lighty/Buford type, so him playing more minutes probably isn't necessarily a good thing. 

Lastly, if you're hoping simply to catch the Buckeyes napping and not giving a full effort, Iowa already did that in their last game, leading into the second half, and Ohio State pulled out the win so I wouldn't expect them to come out slowly again, especially since this time they are playing at home.

If this all makes it sound hopeless that's because it is.  The Gopher defense isn't good enough to handle all Ohio State can throw at them, and I can't figure out how the Gophers are going to score any points against one of the toughest defenses in college ball, especially one whose only weakness is three-point shooting, something Minnesota can't exploit.  The first unit may hang in there, but the second unit is going to get absolutely destroyed.

Ohio State 84, Minnesota 58.

2010 Big Ten Recruiting

I'm sitting here being totally awesome and interesting on a Friday night perusing ESPN.com with my exciting life, and I noticed that the ESPN recruiting rankings were updated today.  I have no idea how often they are updated, but it seems a stroke of good fortune that they are hot off the presses.  I might as well share.  Here are your top Big Ten freshmen for 2010 with their overall ESPN ranking:

#2 Jared Sullinger, PF, OHIO STATE - I caught a bit of one of his high school games, he's going to be a superstar from Day 1
#7 Josh Selby, PG, INDIANA (possibly) - if the Hoosiers snag him it will be a big help towards fixing that program
#12 DeShaun Thomas, SF, OHIO STATE - nicknamed "The Diesel", basically a lefty Evan Turner
#21 Cory Joseph, PG, MINNESOTA (possibly) - pleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleaseplease
#23 Jereme Richmond, SF, ILLINOIS - supposed to already be a total lockdown defender at four positions
#24 Adreian Payne, PF, MICH STATE - amazing athlete
#30 Trey Ziegler, SG, MICHIGAN (possibly) - can also play the point
#31 Keith Appling, SG, MICH STATE - scorer
#55 Meyers Leonard, C, ILLINOIS - big dopey white kid
#61 Russell Byrd, SG, MICH STATE - another dopey white kid, but this one is supposed to be an incredible shooter
#72 Crandall Head, SG, ILLINOIS - Luther's brother, same athleticism
#73 Lenzelle Smith, SG, OHIO STATE - combo guard who can shoot, but is a bit of a chunk
#80 Evan Smotrycz, PF, MICHIGAN - no way a white kid with that name ends up being good
#92 Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, MICHIGAN - yes, the son


Geez, this entire list is basically Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois.  I'm more than a bit surprised there is no Purdue on here.  Wow.  And the Gophers really need to get Joseph.  Really, really, really need him.