Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

As a famous computer programmer once said, "Hold on to your butts."

Of course, he also got eaten by a velociraptor, and that's probably a good metaphor for what is likely to happen to the Gophers on Sunday in Columbus, because these guys have stomped on basically everybody, and the Gophers haven't looked good competent since Puerto Rico.  I mean, really.  They have no weaknesses.

Stats wise (via kenpom.com) they are scary.  They are the #2 team in the country (behind Duke).  They have the 3rd most efficient offense (behind Duke and Pitt), and the 2nd most efficient defense (behind Kansas).  They don't turn the ball over (11th) while turning you over constantly (2nd).  They don't let you get to the line (1st), grab a ton of offensive rebounds (24th), while never letting you get an offensive rebound (24th).  They shoot very well (5th in effective FG%), both from 2 (56.2% - 8th) and three (39.9% - 22nd) and share the ball well (54th).  The only weakness you can find in the stats is that they don't get to the line much (269th), and are only slightly above average at shooting free-throws (69.2%).  They aren't the best at defending the three pointer (allow 33.1%, slightly better than the national average), but against a team like the Gophers will only one shooter, that doesn't matter?

So statswise things look bleak for the Gophers, but how about the eye test?  Inside they have the size to deal with the Gophers' big men with Dallas Lauderdale and Jared Sullinger, with Lauderdale bringing the defense, Sullinger the offense, and both grabbing a shit-ton of rebounds.  Lauderdale on his own would give them fits, but Sullinger is just so unbelievably good he could swing the balance of a game on his own.  His stats are very similar to our own Trevor Mbakwe's, and they're built similarly, but the big difference between the two is footwork and technique.  While Mbake's game is almost solely built around his strength and athletic ability, Sullinger has that plus great footwork, which leads to a lot of drop-steps into layups, and the ability to hit a jumper once in a while.  I fully, fully expect this to be Mbakwe's worst statistical game this year, because I expect Sullinger to get him in foul trouble early and keep him there.

If that's not enough, their three wings - William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler - are offensive weapons as well.  Diebler is the best shooter in the Big Ten, not only does he hit a high percentage (51% this year) but he also shoots at a high volume, and because of his height and athleticism (which still isn't great but is better than Hoffarber) he can get open more often, not to mention with all the attentions his teammates take away from him he has more chances to spot up.  Meanwhile Lighty and Buford are essentially two mini-Evan Turners and clones of each other - they do it all.  They can both handle the ball, both can drive, both can score inside, both can shoot from both three and mid-range, and both play excellent defense.  Any team would be lucky to have one of these guys, and the Buckeyes have both.

And just in case you were hoping that their one question mark coming into the season (point guard play) might have developed into a weakness you can forget it.  Freshman Aaron Craft has acclimated himself quickly, ranking third in the Big Ten in assists (4.9 per game) with a 2.5-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and shoots better than 50% from the floor.  Yeah, they're just fine.

And if you're thinking they don't go very deep and only play seven guys so maybe getting somebody into foul trouble would help, you're wrong.  First, as mentioned before, they don't really commit fouls.  Only Buford and Craft have fouled out for OSU this year (once each), and neither Sullinger or Lauderdale have been in foul trouble much if at all.  Second, even if somebody fouls out, they still have all those offensive weapons I mentioned above who can just step in.  Third, I haven't even mentioned DeShaun Thomas, a highly regarded freshman who is averaging 11 points per game in just seventeen minutes and is looking like another Turner/Lighty/Buford type, so him playing more minutes probably isn't necessarily a good thing. 

Lastly, if you're hoping simply to catch the Buckeyes napping and not giving a full effort, Iowa already did that in their last game, leading into the second half, and Ohio State pulled out the win so I wouldn't expect them to come out slowly again, especially since this time they are playing at home.

If this all makes it sound hopeless that's because it is.  The Gopher defense isn't good enough to handle all Ohio State can throw at them, and I can't figure out how the Gophers are going to score any points against one of the toughest defenses in college ball, especially one whose only weakness is three-point shooting, something Minnesota can't exploit.  The first unit may hang in there, but the second unit is going to get absolutely destroyed.

Ohio State 84, Minnesota 58.

F the Buckeyes

That's a terrible post title, but I couldn't really think of anything else because I'm so damn tired.  Seriously, I'm exhausted.  I probably have mono.  Or AIDS.  I haven't had any gay sex lately or hugged Magic Johnson, so it's probably not AIDS. 


1.  Is Ohio State more of a "final four" team like you said, or "not a top 100" team like Dawger said?  It should be obvious at this point that any time Dawger and I disagree, you just take my side and you'll be good, and this is just another example.  Since the Gophers beat them at Williams, they have won at Purdue, vs. Wisconsin, and at Iowa and lost at #12 West Virginia by 6.  The team's RPI this year is 41, they're ranked 14th by Ken Pomeroy's numbers and 20th and 24th in the two polls, and are 12-3 when Evan Turner plays.  I'll admit "final four team" might be a little bit strong, but "not a top 100" team is just plain old ludicrously stupid.  Much like everything else that comes out of Dawger's mouth.  You can still get them at 75-1 to win the National Championship.  I recommend you throw a $5-spot on it.

2.  So just how good is this Evan Turner?  If you can get past the fact that he turns it over a ridiculous four times per game he's pretty damn good.  His 18.4 ppg ranks third in the Big Ten.  His 9.9 rebounds per game ranks first in the conference, and his 5.5 assists ranks second.  He's also tied for fourth in steals per game at 1.7 and is twelfth in blocks at 0.9 per game.  All this while shooting 55%, good for fourth in the Big Ten, and he's a guard.  The team is 12-3 with him, including wins over Purdue, Florida State, and Cal, and is just 3-3 without him with a loss to Michigan.  He might legitimately be the best player in college basketball this year, and if he hadn't gotten hurt would be a legit National Player of the Year candidate.   

3.  Tell me about the rest of guys, but be quick about it.  I don't have all day. Fellow wings David Lighty and William Buford are basically knockoffs of Turner, and both can carry the team if they need to.  Lighty scored 18 in the second-half alone this week against Iowa, and Buford played his best game of the year last weekend against West Virginia with 22 on 9-13 shooting.  Jon Diebler is the only player in the conference with more three-pointers made than Blake Hoffarber this year, shoots 44% behind the line, and has hit five or more threes in a game seven-times already (and can get his own shot).  Finally, manning the paint is Dallas Lauderdale, who is an offensive retard but leads the conference in blocked shots and is a pretty intimidating force in the middle - good thing the Gophers don't have anybody who can drive into the paint anyway.  

4.  How is the post-Al Nolen point guard thing going?  Well Justin Cobbs has been a non-factor.  He played just four minutes against Michigan State because he was way, way, way, way too freaking hyper resulting in two turnovers in those four minutes.  In the next game against Northwestern he played better, putting in 12 minutes of work and getting almost nothing on his stat line, good or bad.  I didn't notice him for his good play, but didn't notice him for bad either.  Devoe Joseph had a great game against Michigan State with 16 points and 7 assists against just 1 turnover, but kind of disappeared against NW with just six points and four turnovers.  So, in a word, pretty uneven.

I'm encouraged because both Joseph and Cobbs have shown flashes the past two games, but they'll need to play even better if there's an NCAA bid in the future.  Ohio State doesn't match up well against quick point guards because there best guys are bigger wings and their only "true" point guard is a gigantic douchebag.  I just don't know if either of our guys would be classified as a "quick" point guard.  As usual and in every game the rest of the year, point guard play is going to be a huge key.

5.  This would obviously be a huge win for the Gophers, is there any reason to believe?  Not really.  Ohio State is almost as good defensively as the Gophers, but are a far, far better offensive team - one of the best in the country (16th in offensive efficiency).  They can thrive either in the halfcourt or in an up-and-down fast-paced game and have not only the best player out of the two teams, but maybe the best two or three.  I'm hoping the Gophers can keep it close to the end and find a way to sneak a win out somehow, but I think a blowout is more likely (and not the good way).

Ohio State 74, Minnesota 62. 

   

Gophers vs. Suckeyes

See what I did there? I took Ohio State's nickname, and changed only one letter, and made it derogatory. That's good writing folks, take notes.

So I've had some time to relax and reflect after the Week of Doom, in which I was not very optimistic about the Gophers' chances this season, and I feel a lot better. Michigan State and Indiana are clearly the two best teams in the conference, and I think both legitimate top 10 teams in the country. And the Gophers hung with both of them until the end, and probably should have won the Indiana game. If you're used the doom and gloom I'm usually spewing forth, get ready for a change. This time we're going with a ray of sunshine and lollipops because guess what? The Gophers can win this game. And will.

Ohio State has been pretty much accepted as the fourth best team in the Big Ten. My question is why? They're currently 4-2, with wins @ Illinois, vs. Illinois, vs. Iowa, and vs. Northwestern. That is very much not impressive. They've played a good schedule, but have lost every meaningful game other than winning against Syracuse, including losses to Texas A&M by 23 and Butler by 19.

The toughest thing about winning in the Big Ten is doing it on the road, and normally the Gophers going into Columbus, even against a mediocre Buckeye squad, would be an automatic loss, but not this year. The Gophers showed they can win tough games on the road this year, with wins at Penn State and Iowa State. Neither team is as good as Ohio State, but they gave Michigan State all they could handle at the Breslin Center, a much tougher place to play and a much better team.

The scariest thing about Ohio State is guard Jamar Butler. He can absolutely go off on you at any point, but he has been very inconsistent. Since conference play began (with the game @ Tennessee mixed in) he has scored 32, 0, 8, 26, 21, 8, and 7 points. Good news for the Gophers, is that his high games have all been on the road. I think the Nolen/McKenzie/Westbrook combo can keep him under control.

The other big time scorer for OSU is freshman center Kosta Koufos. He's big, at 7 feet tall, but he plays soft (think Rick Rickert). The big man has taken almost as many threes (32) as free throws (48). I can't decide if this bodes well for Spencer or not. On the one hand, he won't have to worry about fouling out, but on the other, I'm not sure if he can handle a big guy out on the perimeter. I can't remember him ever having to guard one. The closest thing I can think of is Brian Butch from Wisconsin, and I don't remember him ever lighting Spencer up. Should be interesting.

A guy who really worries me is David Lighty, a 6-5 sophomore who is averaging 9.7 points per game after doubling his minutes from last season. He's an inside/outside/slasher guy, who is inconsistent but seems to be getting better and better. He's not as good as Raymar Morgan from MSU, but he's a similar player and I'd hate to see him go off here like Morgan did that first game the Gophers played the Spartans.

The key offensive player for Minnesota will be Dan Coleman. Coleman is a bit of a matchup problem for Ohio State, and hopefully they can take advantage of it. If the Buckeyes put Lighty on him, Coleman has a height advantage, and if the put Othello Hunter on him (likely) Coleman should be able to pull him away from the basket and use his perimeter shooting and ball handling/driving abilities to score. Look for Coleman to have a big game (please).

But the biggest reason the Gophers will pull this one off, comes from Minnesota's defense vs. Ohio State's guards. Ohio State turns the ball over on 20.9% of their possessions, which ranks 125th in the country. Minnesota's defense turns their opponent over on 27.8% of their possessions, first in the country (thank you Tubby). This is not good news for the Buckeyes - who, by the way, don't have a point guard. OSU has played three other teams who rank in the top 20 in defensive turnover percentage: Tennessee (loss), Purdue (loss), and Northwestern (turned it over 20 times but NW shot 31%). Added bonus that doesn't seem like a bonus at first: Ohio State is #1 in the country at not sending opponents to the free throw line. If that doesn't play right into the Gophers hands, I don't know what does.

What does all this mean? It means take the Gophers and the under, because Minnesota is about to let the Big Ten know that they are a contender (kind of) this year.

Minnesota 62, Ohio State 57.

Andy Katz Update

Andy Katz has an article up on ESPN.com looking at a few different things in college hoops. Of note:

- Tyler Smith joining Tennessee this season. As I mentioned previously, this makes Tennessee a top contender this year. Katz talked to Pearl, and they will go with three guards, making a starting lineup of JaJuan Smith, Ramar Smith, Chris Lofton, Wayne Chism, and Tyler Smith. That is a solid, solid team. A bit undersized, with Chism at 6-9 and Tyler Smith at 6-7 and the other three little guys, but still. Watch out.

- David Lighty of Ohio State has been a big hit with the USA Basketball Under 19 team. Bruiser Flint, an assistant on the team, expects Lighty to have a breakout season for the Buckeyes, which is not great news for the rest of the Big Ten.

- A few other pieces, including more praise for freshman DeAndre Jordan (Tex A&M) and Johnny Flynn (Syracuse), the fact that TaJuan Porter (Oregon) can't play point, and some other stuff that isn't very interesting.