Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out. You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck. I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random. Spoiler alert: The Gophers aren't in here.
1. NORTH CAROLINA. They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible. They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball. Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good. SPOILER: nope.
2. KENTUCKY. Hell I don't know.
3. MARYLAND. It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it. They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team. Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole. Still, three seems really freaking high.
4. KANSAS. Want to hear something that will blow your mind? Perry Ellis is back for another year. Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner. Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards. This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap. With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good. Bet on them. Do it. Go do it. They're like 10-1. Do it.
5. DUKE. Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right? This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it? Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season. NOT BLOODY LIKELY. Good luck with him and one million freshmen. Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too. Yes, Rice. The college. If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive. I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.
6. VIRGINIA. Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball. Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell. And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers. Ugh. Stop already.
7. IOWA STATE. If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise. But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs. Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high. They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.
8. OKLAHOMA. The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again. They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time. Take notes, Cavaliers. Also, this is way too high for these guys.
9. GONZAGA. Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out. Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999. So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully. They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early. This section was extremely boring.
10. WICHITA STATE. They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back. That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley. No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll. Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two. I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.
11. VILLANOVA. God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win. They were so freaking good. Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing. Also their thing: guards. And they have a bunch of them again. So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early. It's what they do. Lesson learned.
12. ARIZONA. Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone. That is a lot of people to be gone. However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers. Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you. And you would die.
13. MICHIGAN STATE. Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in. For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop. I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here. He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor. The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn. I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn. So like, is that his thing? What does he do if nobody guards him? He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker. I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't. I hope that's what happens with Nairn.
14. CAL. This team could be like whoa. I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1. They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits. Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits. If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team. Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach. This is my favorite sleeper this year.
15. INDIANA. Oh come on! Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall? No chance. It's the same team. The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good? Or even passable? No. Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense. Should score a lot of points though. Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.
16. UTAH. I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball. Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys! His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March. He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point. Should be fun. No idea about all these other guys.
17. WISCONSIN. Oh come on! You're kidding me. Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger. I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach. But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else. I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too. People are morons. Badgers suck this year.
18. VANDERBILT. Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking. On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back. Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good. In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
19. NOTRE DAME. Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us." The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone. Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball. In summation, these guys suck.
20. UCONN. They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before. Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish. How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball? That's insane. Also, I probably watch too much basketball.
21. LSU. One of my favorite sleepers this year. Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible. As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what. LSU is on that list.
22. BAYLOR. Baylor still? I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are. The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone. Oh what's that? A really young back court coached by Scott Drew? I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.
23. PURDUE. Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book. A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs.. It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time. I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet. Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season. They also can't shoot at all. So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.
24. BUTLER. I tried to write about Butler like 4 times. That's probably enough.
25. MICHIGAN. Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament. That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams. They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team. Probably better than this ranking. Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet. College sports needs trading, would be so awesome. Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I. PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!
Showing posts with label Oklahoma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oklahoma. Show all posts
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Friday, March 27, 2015
Previewing the Sweet 16 - Friday
Small loss yesterday pretty much because of the 5 unit loss on the Wis/UNC under. I still feel like I read that game right as it was just a 60 possession game so I nailed the pace. Carolina hitting 8 of 13 three point attempts really sunk me. I figured Wisconsin would are UNC to shoot and they'd miss a bunch, but they nailed them so what are you gonna do? Even given that I still had a chance until that stupid UNC foul on the perimeter with less than a minute left took out the possibility of Bucky running the clock down. Whatevs. We move on. Had most of the other stuff nailed. Here's what I'm thinking for Friday.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga. I really, really, really didn't expect UCLA to get here, so I'm at a bit of a loss. Bryce Alford, who was becoming more and more of a chucker as the year went on, has been white hot in the tournament, and after a lucky, grind it out win against SMU (with a questionable call to boot) they looked like an absolute offensive juggernaut against UAB. That might not sound like much, but don't forget the Blazers pretty much completely shut down Iowa State. Is UCLA a lucky team who snuck into the tournament undeservedly, lucked into a first round win, and then decimated a shoddy opponent in round 2? Or are they a team worthy of inclusion who has won two games playing vastly different styles and is now peaking at the right time?
Nothing in these teams' profiles suggests the Bruins have a prayer of stopping Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a smoothly run offensive operation with plenty of firepower both inside and outside and other than some suspect free throw shooting from their big guys no real weaknesses. UCLA is going to have to score to keep up with them, and the Zags defense is far superior to the Bruins so it won't be easy. They're going to want to try to get down the court as soon as possible with their athletes and try to get moving towards the basket before Gonzaga can get their half court defense set up, but an uptempo game also suits the Bulldogs just fine.
These teams played earlier this year, with Gonzaga coming out ahead 87-74. The Zags absolutely shredded the UCLA defense with the Bruins hanging as close as they did thanks to good 3-point shooting and a bunch of offensive rebounds. I don't really see much of any reason to expect anything wildly different, though without question this is the game I feel I have the shakiest read on.
Bet: Gonzaga -8.5 (1 UNIT), Over 146 (1 UNIT)
UCLA vs. Gonzaga. I really, really, really didn't expect UCLA to get here, so I'm at a bit of a loss. Bryce Alford, who was becoming more and more of a chucker as the year went on, has been white hot in the tournament, and after a lucky, grind it out win against SMU (with a questionable call to boot) they looked like an absolute offensive juggernaut against UAB. That might not sound like much, but don't forget the Blazers pretty much completely shut down Iowa State. Is UCLA a lucky team who snuck into the tournament undeservedly, lucked into a first round win, and then decimated a shoddy opponent in round 2? Or are they a team worthy of inclusion who has won two games playing vastly different styles and is now peaking at the right time?
Nothing in these teams' profiles suggests the Bruins have a prayer of stopping Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a smoothly run offensive operation with plenty of firepower both inside and outside and other than some suspect free throw shooting from their big guys no real weaknesses. UCLA is going to have to score to keep up with them, and the Zags defense is far superior to the Bruins so it won't be easy. They're going to want to try to get down the court as soon as possible with their athletes and try to get moving towards the basket before Gonzaga can get their half court defense set up, but an uptempo game also suits the Bulldogs just fine.
These teams played earlier this year, with Gonzaga coming out ahead 87-74. The Zags absolutely shredded the UCLA defense with the Bruins hanging as close as they did thanks to good 3-point shooting and a bunch of offensive rebounds. I don't really see much of any reason to expect anything wildly different, though without question this is the game I feel I have the shakiest read on.
Bet: Gonzaga -8.5 (1 UNIT), Over 146 (1 UNIT)
Louisville vs. North Carolina State: I’m such a horrible traitor. For years I've been a huge Rick Pitino fan, which helps to explain some of my enthusiasm at the Gophers’ hiring of his son, and have always backed them to overachieve in the NCAA Tournament. I won a 20-1 future bet three years ago when they won the title and won my NCAA pool the year he won with that awesome Tony Delk Kentucky team and that should have been enough to make me a believer for life, and I thought I was. So why did I pick Louisville to lose to UC-Irvine? Was I enthralled with that giant 7-6 guy? Did I think losing Chris Jones would make a chaotic, and sometimes limited, offensive team even more chaotic? Did I think a poor close to the season made the Cardinals a prime candidate to flame out early? Yes to all of it. I'm horrible. It's Rick Pitino, you dummy.
Of course, we can't discount NC State seeing as they completely dismantled what I thought was a very good Villanova team, not to mention beating a very athletic LSU squad in round 1. Both teams have played tremendous defense in the tournament thus far holding all opponents far under their points per possession average with both putting up an extremely impressive performance versus an elite offensive team (Northern Iowa and Villanova). Both teams do it with a hellacious half court defense, though Louisville holds an edge here because they also excel at causing turnovers whereas NC State never does. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well, so if this turns into a half court game it could end up quite a slogfest.
It will most likely end up that way, at least on the NC State end since the Wolfpack like to take their time and the Louisville defense, despite the press, generally forces teams to take up quite a bit of the shot clock on each possession. Louisville will probably get a few easy baskets in transition thanks to turnovers, though NC State is pretty good at taking care of the ball, and they'll need them since their tendency is take a lot of terrible long twos. I have a feeling this is going to be a very ugly game, or a beautiful game if you like defense. In that case I'd be crazy to pick against Rick Pitino again.
Bet: Louisville -3 (2 UNITS), Under 130 (4 UNITS)
Of course, we can't discount NC State seeing as they completely dismantled what I thought was a very good Villanova team, not to mention beating a very athletic LSU squad in round 1. Both teams have played tremendous defense in the tournament thus far holding all opponents far under their points per possession average with both putting up an extremely impressive performance versus an elite offensive team (Northern Iowa and Villanova). Both teams do it with a hellacious half court defense, though Louisville holds an edge here because they also excel at causing turnovers whereas NC State never does. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well, so if this turns into a half court game it could end up quite a slogfest.
It will most likely end up that way, at least on the NC State end since the Wolfpack like to take their time and the Louisville defense, despite the press, generally forces teams to take up quite a bit of the shot clock on each possession. Louisville will probably get a few easy baskets in transition thanks to turnovers, though NC State is pretty good at taking care of the ball, and they'll need them since their tendency is take a lot of terrible long twos. I have a feeling this is going to be a very ugly game, or a beautiful game if you like defense. In that case I'd be crazy to pick against Rick Pitino again.
Bet: Louisville -3 (2 UNITS), Under 130 (4 UNITS)
Utah vs. Duke. The Blue Devil start and end with Jahlil Okafor, who is the key to everything they do on offense. He has an incredibly polished game in the post, is an adept and smart enough passer to find open shooters when double-teamed, and is a terror on the offensive boards. He struggles against defenders who can match his size, however, and I found a little factoid that he's averaged just 11.6 points per game against teams with a 7-footer they can throw at him. Well guess what? Utah has two in Jakob Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, and neither are just a big body, both have skill. This bodes well for the Utes. Not that Okafor is all Duke has, especially with Justise Winslow really coming on in the tournament, but having the ability to potentially limit Okafor is a really good start.
Offensively Utah also matches up well against Duke. The Blue Devils excel at perimeter defense giving up very few three pointers and they rarely foul, but over 60% of their points allowed this year came from 2-point shots, not a problem for Utah since they shot 53% from there this year. They were a little more reliant on three pointers than you'd like to see in this spot, but shooting 41% from behind the line on the year can do that to a team. At least you know that even if they get limited looks they should be able to knock them down. Delon Wright is an underrated super star at guard for Utah and he should be able to get into the lane against Duke, which could create some of those open looks.
If this becomes a half court game, I really like the Utes' chances. I think their size on defense and ability to pound the ball in the paint are huge issues for Duke. Even if Duke tries to get up and run, and they will, Utah's offense should be good enough to keep pace.
Bet: Utah +6 (3 UNITS), Over 134 (1 UNIT)
Offensively Utah also matches up well against Duke. The Blue Devils excel at perimeter defense giving up very few three pointers and they rarely foul, but over 60% of their points allowed this year came from 2-point shots, not a problem for Utah since they shot 53% from there this year. They were a little more reliant on three pointers than you'd like to see in this spot, but shooting 41% from behind the line on the year can do that to a team. At least you know that even if they get limited looks they should be able to knock them down. Delon Wright is an underrated super star at guard for Utah and he should be able to get into the lane against Duke, which could create some of those open looks.
If this becomes a half court game, I really like the Utes' chances. I think their size on defense and ability to pound the ball in the paint are huge issues for Duke. Even if Duke tries to get up and run, and they will, Utah's offense should be good enough to keep pace.
Bet: Utah +6 (3 UNITS), Over 134 (1 UNIT)
Michigan State vs. Oklahoma. Two inconsistent teams (MSU lost to Texas Southern and Nebraska this year, Oklahoma lost to Washington and was swept by Kansas State) who seem to be peaking at the right time, this should be a pretty entertaining game. Though both teams play great defense, both also enjoy running with much quicker average possession times on offense than on defense. The Spartans defense generally ends up with them playing games that look to be slower tempo but their opponents average time of possession was 20.1 seconds, the second slowest mark in the country. That’s against plodding big ten teams, not a team like Oklahoma who averages under 17 seconds per possession, one of the quickest in the nation. This reads like a potential track meet to me, so the question is: who wins a track meet?
The Sooners were 6-4 this year in games against the kenpom 100 that hit 70 possessions or more; the Spartans 1-2. Sparty is definitely a deeper squad, but with almost a week of rest at this point in the season that’s pretty meaningless outside of foul trouble and neither team draws many fouls, so that advantage is pretty much irrelevant. Michigan State is a better rebounding team by a little bit, but if this game goes as I’m picturing it that won’t matter all that much either. Same goes for Oklahoma’s advantage in the turnover department, which could come into play but it’s small enough and this game should be wide open enough I don’t think it matters all that much.
I guess, in my opinion, it’s all going to come down to making shots. Michigan State is a better shot making team, but Oklahoma is a better shot defending team. Oklahoma has the best offensive weapon in Buddy Hield, but Michigan State probably has the next three in Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Oklahoma is a great free throw shooting team, while Michigan State is terrible. How much is that going to matter in a game where neither team draws many fouls? I really don’t know. I don’t have a great read on the side here, but I think we’ll see points.
Bet: Oklahoma +2.5 (1 UNIT), OVER 134 (3 UNITS)
The Sooners were 6-4 this year in games against the kenpom 100 that hit 70 possessions or more; the Spartans 1-2. Sparty is definitely a deeper squad, but with almost a week of rest at this point in the season that’s pretty meaningless outside of foul trouble and neither team draws many fouls, so that advantage is pretty much irrelevant. Michigan State is a better rebounding team by a little bit, but if this game goes as I’m picturing it that won’t matter all that much either. Same goes for Oklahoma’s advantage in the turnover department, which could come into play but it’s small enough and this game should be wide open enough I don’t think it matters all that much.
I guess, in my opinion, it’s all going to come down to making shots. Michigan State is a better shot making team, but Oklahoma is a better shot defending team. Oklahoma has the best offensive weapon in Buddy Hield, but Michigan State probably has the next three in Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Oklahoma is a great free throw shooting team, while Michigan State is terrible. How much is that going to matter in a game where neither team draws many fouls? I really don’t know. I don’t have a great read on the side here, but I think we’ll see points.
Bet: Oklahoma +2.5 (1 UNIT), OVER 134 (3 UNITS)
Monday, September 19, 2011
NCAA Hoops Preview - The Big 12 or whatever
Remember how I said I was going to do a preview of a new conference each Wednesday or Friday and laid out that whole schedule? Well forget all that. I don't do organization well. I'm just going to run 'em out there whenever I see fit in whatever order I fell like.
We're starting with the Big 12, a conference that will have a significantly different look this year and I don't just mean that they tossed two of their worst hoops programs in Colorado and Nebraska. The real intrigue here is that the two tradition powers of the Big 12, Kansas and Texas, were both hit hard by graduations and early defections to the NBA if it ever exists again. Between the two schools they lost 9 starters, and although both are capable of rebuilding quickly and still have plenty of talent, the conference is more wide open than it's been since I can remember. Of course, it's looking like it won't exist for much longer, but for this season at least it will be interesting. With an 18-game true round robin schedule, I expect these teams to beat up each other pretty good, and any school that can manage double digit wins is going to be in good shape.
1. BAYLOR BEARS. If he had entered the draft Perry Jones would have been a top-3 pick, so his return to Waco is huge for Baylor. He's an absolute beast who is tough to handle inside but can also play the perimeter (although not much of a shooter) and is practically a lock for B12 player of the year, especially with Lace Dunn gone so he will become the absolute focal point of the offense. They return everybody else inside and picked up a couple of stud freshman in wings Quincy Miller (#7 overall according to Rivals, spurned Duke to sign with the Bears) and Deuce Bello (#54 overall and has a sweet name) so they're pretty well loaded. Their frontline of Jones, Miller, and Quincy Acy might be tops in the country. If they can get solid PG play from either the returning A.J. Walton (meh) or JuCo transfer Pierre Jackson, who led his team to the JuCo championship, they're a major contender to win the whole thing.
2. MISSOURI TIGERS. With so much talent having vacated the conference the door is open for the Tigers and their five returning starters - yes five. Of course, the biggest question is what happens when you take the players who are well suited to run Mike Anderson's crazy circus ball system and give them a new coach, one whose Miami team last year was one of the slowest in the NCAA. Assuming Frank Haith has the brains to realize you fit your system to the players in this case, hopefully he turns them lose because with Marcus Denmon, Michael Dixon, and the Pressey brothers running the break with Ricardo Ratliffe, Laurence Bowers, and Kim English filling the lanes these guys are one of the most fun groups to watch in all of the NCAA. Of course, if my knowledge of most coaches is right he'll try to force them to slow down and at least one player will quit or get suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team" which in this case will mean getting pissed at the coach. This is just like Above the Rim.
3. KANSAS JAYHAWKS. Kansas lost a ton of talent this year and 75% of their scoring from last year, so they'll rely heavily on Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson, and that's not necessarily a bad thing, assuming they can improve upon last year. Both were solid players last year, but are going to have to become the main men on offense if Kansas is going to make any kind of run. Sophomore guards Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson were top 100 guys coming out of high school, as are newcomers Naadir Tharpe and Ben McLemore, but they're all guards. The biggest issue for Kansas is on the interior, because outside of Robinson they're paper thin. They have a big seven-footer in Jeff Withey, but he's only played 207 minutes in his first two years in Lawrence. The talent on the outside will get them to the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't expect much of a run unless somebody really steps up to help Robinson in the paint.
4. TEXAS A&M AGGIES. Khris Middleton is one of my favorite players to watch, and also one of my least favorite players to watch. When things are going well he's a born scorer who can hit from outside, inside, or drive to the hole and get to the line. However when the opposition makes a concerted effort to take him out of the game it works far, far too well, such as when he shot 0-9 and didn't even bother getting to the line because he just shot jumpers all game (I watched this one and it was lame). But he's no doubt a special talent and he doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so if he worked that hard again this offseason you might be looking at a B12 player-of-the-year type season.
5. IOWA STATE CYCLONES. What to think about Iowa State? It's tough, partially because I'm biased since I consider them my second favorite college team, partially because how do you not like the mayor, partially because I love his strategy of not caring about a player's off the court baggage and just bringing in talent, and partially because when you ignore players' off the court baggage things can implode in a hurry. I mean you know all about Royce White's talent and watched Chris Allen for what feels like 10 years, but did you realize transfer Anthony Booker from So Ill was ranked the #43 freshman in the country when he came into school? And Chris Babb from Penn State averaged nearly 10 points per game as a sophomore? They're going to struggle finding a ball handler with Diante Garrett graduating, but this could be a spectacular team. Or they could end up with a couple of guys kicked out, a fight amongst their own team, and a massive flame out of a season. Either way, this should be fun to watch.
6. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS. I've flipped these guys with Texas a few times, and that's mainly because I can't quite figure out what to think of OSU (or Texas, actually). On the one hand, the bring in a freshman in wing LeBryan Nash who instantly becomes their best player (#6 overall recruit by Rivals) so that ups their talent level. On the other hand, he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, their other stud recruit is a point guard Cezar Guerrero (#71 overall) who is described as more of a scorer than distributor, and their best returning player, Keiton Page, is a big-time chucker who led the team in shot attempts despite hitting just 37% of his shots. See where I'm going with this? They might be a more talented team this year, but I'd be concerned about if there are enough balls to go around.
7. TEXAS LONGHORNS. I'm struggling to see any way they can compete this year. I know Myck Kabongo is a total stud and basically pushed Cory Joseph out the door, but I am, everything is gone from last year and even though this year's recruiting class is very good it's not a ready made team like Kentucky seems to pull in each year. I mean, literally the only returner of any consequence is J'Covan Brown and he averaged double figures scoring and went for over 20 in both NCAA tournament games, but that was as a complimentary player, and now he's going to have to be Mr. Offense. I feeling like I might be selling them a bit short because it seems like no matter what the Longhorns are always able to end having a great team that flames out in the end, but I'm really not seeing it this year. Seeing as how Rick Barnes isn't exactly known for coaching teams up, looks like 7th place and the NIT to me.
8. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS. So here's Kansas State. A terrible program that never did anything, and Frank Martin manages to snag Michael Beasley, Bill Walker, and Jake Pullen - bam, instant contender. Well guess what? With Pullen's graduation they're all gone. Some say Martin has turned K-State into a whole new program, one who can contend with the big boys in the conference (wherever they end up). I say they're wrong, and K-State is heading back to dumpsville - unless they end up in C-USA or the Mountain West or some new conference made out of leftovers, but if they're in a major conference it's not going to be pretty, starting this year where I'd be stunned if they managed even an NIT bid. Should have taken the Miami job, Frank. A chance to go back to your home town right as your program is about to fall off a cliff? Ouch. This is like Shelly Long leaving Cheers, only kind of the opposite.
9. OKLAHOMA SOONERS. Ouch. From 30 wins two years ago to just 27 in the past couple of seasons combined along with NCAA infractions and a new coach. Also, if I told you there was much talent here I'd be lying. Lon Kruger has a long road back to make Oklahoma relevant, but at least if they move on to the Pac-12 (14/16) they'll get to play those crappy teams a bunch of times, so that'll help. Seriously, though the only guy I remember from Oklahoma last year is that Brian Cardinal wannabe Cade Davis and he's gone so you can just picture me shrugging my shoulders and we can move on.
10. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS. Riddle me this - what happens when a terrible team loses four starters (it's four top scorers, top rebounder, and 3 top assist men) who accounted for over 2/3rds of the team's scoring and are replacing them with a JC dude and a transfer from Utah? Well we're about to find out and I have a feeling it's not going to be pretty. Assuming Billy Gillespie isn't drunk all the time I'm sure he'll improve their fortunes (wherever they end up), but this is going to be a rough year. Good thing nobody gives a crap about this team.
Well there we are. The first college basketball preview of the year. As Brian Fantana would say, "It really revs my engine." Seriously though, I need this. I can't even watch the Twins anymore. At like, 2pm this afternoon Snacks texted me something about how Parmalee can hit and I was like, "Dude, I totally forgot they were even playing a day game" and he was like, "I know. I only even saw the score because I was going on mlb.com to check and see if the Red Sox were losing because it would be funny if they collapsed." It's so funny and sad I'm going to go kick a baby.
Seriously though, Missouri at 75-1 to win the National Championship is worth throwing a couple bucks down. They'll end up a 3-4 seed.
We're starting with the Big 12, a conference that will have a significantly different look this year and I don't just mean that they tossed two of their worst hoops programs in Colorado and Nebraska. The real intrigue here is that the two tradition powers of the Big 12, Kansas and Texas, were both hit hard by graduations and early defections to the NBA if it ever exists again. Between the two schools they lost 9 starters, and although both are capable of rebuilding quickly and still have plenty of talent, the conference is more wide open than it's been since I can remember. Of course, it's looking like it won't exist for much longer, but for this season at least it will be interesting. With an 18-game true round robin schedule, I expect these teams to beat up each other pretty good, and any school that can manage double digit wins is going to be in good shape.
1. BAYLOR BEARS. If he had entered the draft Perry Jones would have been a top-3 pick, so his return to Waco is huge for Baylor. He's an absolute beast who is tough to handle inside but can also play the perimeter (although not much of a shooter) and is practically a lock for B12 player of the year, especially with Lace Dunn gone so he will become the absolute focal point of the offense. They return everybody else inside and picked up a couple of stud freshman in wings Quincy Miller (#7 overall according to Rivals, spurned Duke to sign with the Bears) and Deuce Bello (#54 overall and has a sweet name) so they're pretty well loaded. Their frontline of Jones, Miller, and Quincy Acy might be tops in the country. If they can get solid PG play from either the returning A.J. Walton (meh) or JuCo transfer Pierre Jackson, who led his team to the JuCo championship, they're a major contender to win the whole thing.
2. MISSOURI TIGERS. With so much talent having vacated the conference the door is open for the Tigers and their five returning starters - yes five. Of course, the biggest question is what happens when you take the players who are well suited to run Mike Anderson's crazy circus ball system and give them a new coach, one whose Miami team last year was one of the slowest in the NCAA. Assuming Frank Haith has the brains to realize you fit your system to the players in this case, hopefully he turns them lose because with Marcus Denmon, Michael Dixon, and the Pressey brothers running the break with Ricardo Ratliffe, Laurence Bowers, and Kim English filling the lanes these guys are one of the most fun groups to watch in all of the NCAA. Of course, if my knowledge of most coaches is right he'll try to force them to slow down and at least one player will quit or get suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team" which in this case will mean getting pissed at the coach. This is just like Above the Rim.
3. KANSAS JAYHAWKS. Kansas lost a ton of talent this year and 75% of their scoring from last year, so they'll rely heavily on Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson, and that's not necessarily a bad thing, assuming they can improve upon last year. Both were solid players last year, but are going to have to become the main men on offense if Kansas is going to make any kind of run. Sophomore guards Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson were top 100 guys coming out of high school, as are newcomers Naadir Tharpe and Ben McLemore, but they're all guards. The biggest issue for Kansas is on the interior, because outside of Robinson they're paper thin. They have a big seven-footer in Jeff Withey, but he's only played 207 minutes in his first two years in Lawrence. The talent on the outside will get them to the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't expect much of a run unless somebody really steps up to help Robinson in the paint.
4. TEXAS A&M AGGIES. Khris Middleton is one of my favorite players to watch, and also one of my least favorite players to watch. When things are going well he's a born scorer who can hit from outside, inside, or drive to the hole and get to the line. However when the opposition makes a concerted effort to take him out of the game it works far, far too well, such as when he shot 0-9 and didn't even bother getting to the line because he just shot jumpers all game (I watched this one and it was lame). But he's no doubt a special talent and he doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so if he worked that hard again this offseason you might be looking at a B12 player-of-the-year type season.
5. IOWA STATE CYCLONES. What to think about Iowa State? It's tough, partially because I'm biased since I consider them my second favorite college team, partially because how do you not like the mayor, partially because I love his strategy of not caring about a player's off the court baggage and just bringing in talent, and partially because when you ignore players' off the court baggage things can implode in a hurry. I mean you know all about Royce White's talent and watched Chris Allen for what feels like 10 years, but did you realize transfer Anthony Booker from So Ill was ranked the #43 freshman in the country when he came into school? And Chris Babb from Penn State averaged nearly 10 points per game as a sophomore? They're going to struggle finding a ball handler with Diante Garrett graduating, but this could be a spectacular team. Or they could end up with a couple of guys kicked out, a fight amongst their own team, and a massive flame out of a season. Either way, this should be fun to watch.
6. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS. I've flipped these guys with Texas a few times, and that's mainly because I can't quite figure out what to think of OSU (or Texas, actually). On the one hand, the bring in a freshman in wing LeBryan Nash who instantly becomes their best player (#6 overall recruit by Rivals) so that ups their talent level. On the other hand, he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, their other stud recruit is a point guard Cezar Guerrero (#71 overall) who is described as more of a scorer than distributor, and their best returning player, Keiton Page, is a big-time chucker who led the team in shot attempts despite hitting just 37% of his shots. See where I'm going with this? They might be a more talented team this year, but I'd be concerned about if there are enough balls to go around.
7. TEXAS LONGHORNS. I'm struggling to see any way they can compete this year. I know Myck Kabongo is a total stud and basically pushed Cory Joseph out the door, but I am, everything is gone from last year and even though this year's recruiting class is very good it's not a ready made team like Kentucky seems to pull in each year. I mean, literally the only returner of any consequence is J'Covan Brown and he averaged double figures scoring and went for over 20 in both NCAA tournament games, but that was as a complimentary player, and now he's going to have to be Mr. Offense. I feeling like I might be selling them a bit short because it seems like no matter what the Longhorns are always able to end having a great team that flames out in the end, but I'm really not seeing it this year. Seeing as how Rick Barnes isn't exactly known for coaching teams up, looks like 7th place and the NIT to me.
8. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS. So here's Kansas State. A terrible program that never did anything, and Frank Martin manages to snag Michael Beasley, Bill Walker, and Jake Pullen - bam, instant contender. Well guess what? With Pullen's graduation they're all gone. Some say Martin has turned K-State into a whole new program, one who can contend with the big boys in the conference (wherever they end up). I say they're wrong, and K-State is heading back to dumpsville - unless they end up in C-USA or the Mountain West or some new conference made out of leftovers, but if they're in a major conference it's not going to be pretty, starting this year where I'd be stunned if they managed even an NIT bid. Should have taken the Miami job, Frank. A chance to go back to your home town right as your program is about to fall off a cliff? Ouch. This is like Shelly Long leaving Cheers, only kind of the opposite.
9. OKLAHOMA SOONERS. Ouch. From 30 wins two years ago to just 27 in the past couple of seasons combined along with NCAA infractions and a new coach. Also, if I told you there was much talent here I'd be lying. Lon Kruger has a long road back to make Oklahoma relevant, but at least if they move on to the Pac-12 (14/16) they'll get to play those crappy teams a bunch of times, so that'll help. Seriously, though the only guy I remember from Oklahoma last year is that Brian Cardinal wannabe Cade Davis and he's gone so you can just picture me shrugging my shoulders and we can move on.
10. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS. Riddle me this - what happens when a terrible team loses four starters (it's four top scorers, top rebounder, and 3 top assist men) who accounted for over 2/3rds of the team's scoring and are replacing them with a JC dude and a transfer from Utah? Well we're about to find out and I have a feeling it's not going to be pretty. Assuming Billy Gillespie isn't drunk all the time I'm sure he'll improve their fortunes (wherever they end up), but this is going to be a rough year. Good thing nobody gives a crap about this team.
Well there we are. The first college basketball preview of the year. As Brian Fantana would say, "It really revs my engine." Seriously though, I need this. I can't even watch the Twins anymore. At like, 2pm this afternoon Snacks texted me something about how Parmalee can hit and I was like, "Dude, I totally forgot they were even playing a day game" and he was like, "I know. I only even saw the score because I was going on mlb.com to check and see if the Red Sox were losing because it would be funny if they collapsed." It's so funny and sad I'm going to go kick a baby.
Seriously though, Missouri at 75-1 to win the National Championship is worth throwing a couple bucks down. They'll end up a 3-4 seed.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
That's right kids, I'm back to give my NCAA basketball previews, conference by conference, for another year, because it's about that time, to bring forth the rhythm and the rhyme, I'm a get mine so get yours, I want to see sweat comin' out your pores. I'm starting with the Big 12 this year because that's where my sleeper for the NCAA Championship resides. Come on, swing it.
1. Baylor Bears. And this would be that sleeper. They did lose three starters off the Elite 8 team from last year, including lottery pick Ekpe Udoh and starting point man Tweety Carter, but the pieces are in place for a deep run by the Bears. LaceDarius Dunn is back, might be the best guard in the nation, and is capable of taking over a game all by himself, and talented freshman center Perry Jones is the type of freshman who can carry a team and will be one of the top newcomers in the country. The key to how far they'll be able to go will be the development of a couple of sophomore guards who were bit players last year but were both highly regarded recruits. If either Nolan Dennis or A.J. Walton can fill that Tweety Carter role the Bears could absolutely be cutting down the nets at the conclusion of the season. Actually I'd even go so far as to say probably. They'll probably be cutting down the nets. Current odds: 30-1. You might want to throw a sawbuck on that.
2. Kansas Jayhawks. Like Baylor, the Jayhawks lose a lot of firepower from last year, but it's not like Kansas just goes around recruiting stiffs - there are a ton of very talented guys who will be asked to step up their contributions this year, and based on pedigree they shouldn't have a problem doing it. Assuming Josh Selby ends up being declared eligible they will be a national contender, and even if he isn't they should be a quality, deep team. I would guess he'll be cleared, being that this is Kansas and not Kentucky. Expect Kansas to be one of the best teams in the country and a top seed, only to be upset in the tournament for something like the 9th time in the last 10 years, not counting that year they won of course.
3. Kansas State Wildcats. Expect these guys to be media darlings this year (one magazine I've looked at picked them first in the conference) due to their crazy eyed coach and Jake Pullen and his beard. I absolutely love Pullen, and have written about him on this blog a couple of times, but it will be interesting to see how he responds without backcourt mate Denis Clemente this year. Still, besides Pullen there are a bunch of athletic, talented big men and wings, and if a couple of them can improve upon last year (particularly Wally Judge, a top 20 recruit according to Rivals a year ago who played only 12 minutes per game last year) they could go far. Also you know that mafia looking coach of there's has mob ties, so if anybody hears anything about a fix involving K-State can you let me know so I can throw some dollars at it?
4. Missouri Tigers. Mizzou took a hit when prized recruit (#12 according to Rivals) Tony Mitchell was ruled ineligible for the fall semester, but there's still plenty of talent returning including the team's three top scorers from last year in guards Kim English and Marcus Denmon and forward Laurence Bowers. They are pretty well stocked in both the backcourt and the frontcourt and have a very nice recruiting class coming in, even without Mitchell. The Tigers traditionally play an awesomely fun 40-minutes of hell type of ball, and with their stockpile of guards and athletic wings they're loaded for a nice run. Or, more accurately, 40 minutes of run per game.
5. Texas Longhorns. It pains me to praise them after they stole Cory Joseph from the Gophers, but the Longhorns will be much the same - supremely talented - despite losing four starters. Will that talent gel, like in 2008, or will it fizzle into disappointment as it did last year? Don't know, but it should be fun to watch. Joseph and Tristan Thompson are two of the top freshman in the country. Jai Lucas was a highly touted PG out of high school who has disappointed but is looking for a new start. Jordan Hamilton looks like a likely breakout star. Gary Johnson has been an excellent sidekick for years, but will finally be a feature player. Like I said, lots of talent. Let's see if Rick Barnes screws this one up, because you know there's only three things in Texas: steers, queers, and underachieving sports teams.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders. I'm not sure how talented they are, but they are definitely experienced with five of their top six players returning, all of whom are going to be seniors. Mike Singletary (not that one) was talented enough to score 43 against TAMU a two years ago and score 20 in a game ten times last year, and John Roberson led the Big 12 in assists last season. With some good talent coming in to join the experienced old people this team will probably end up being tough to beat. They aren't going to be any kind of real contender for the national title or anything, but they'll probably upset some of the top conference contenders at home.
7. Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado actually has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament this year, which seems weird to say but they have a couple of supremely talented players in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins. Burks actually flirted with the NBA draft this offseason after winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, but ultimately returned for another year, and Higgins has been All-Big 12 third team twice in his career. If these two get any help, any help at (from, say, former Gopher recruit Austin Dufault) all they'll threaten to make the NCAA Tournament and will be the best Buffaloes team in a long time. Although I suppose that isn't saying much since they have just two tournament appearances (and one win) since 1970. So they're due.
8. Texas A&M Aggies. While most of the other teams above them in this ranking seem to have at least one of their key contributors back, the Aggies are going to be looking for some role players to step up. David Loubeau gets the most press as a possible breakout type, but Khris Middleton is the guy I expect to make major strides and become a star. He hit double-figures in scoring in four of the Aggies last five games last season after getting there just six times prior, while hitting 12 of 22 three-pointers. He's a three point marksman who is also an athletic scorer. Or, as I like to call it, a perfect basketball player. Yes, I'm saing Middleton basketball player heading towards multiple All-American teams and a likely Hall-of-Fame NBA career. What of it?
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys. James Anderson won't be easy to replace, and losing second leading scorer Obi Muonelo is an extra little kick in the teeth, but there is some good talent returning. Marshall Moses showed some nice flashes last year, and Keiton Page is fun in that mad-bomber kind of way. Still, the key to the season might be freshman Michael Cobbins, one of the top ranked power forwards in the country according to Rivals, and the kind of player, if as good as advertised, who could take this team from "meh" to "huh."
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers. We here in Big Ten country will get to see them just a bit more often in the future, and hopefully for them the move will help their talent level because this is one of the more moribund college hoops programs in the country. That isn't to say there's no talent here - Brian Diaz is a nice seven-footer who is just a sophomore and had some high quality games for the Huskers last year- but it's not the kind of talent that's going to compete for anything meaningful. Again. Hopefully the conference move and a new stadium will help upgrade the talent level because, frankly, we've already got a Penn State.
11. Iowa State Cyclones. Freddy Hoiberg is certainly in for two very different years the next couple of seasons. Next year, with an interesting recruiting class this year (including eligibility risk Calvin Godfrey) and next joining up with Big Ten problem children Royce White and Chris Allen there will be a lot of eyes looking to see how his "take a chance on anybody with talent, despite the baggage" strategy works out. This year, however, there's no pressure and no worries because there isn't much talent (although I am a fan of Diante Garrett) and only four players are back from last year. I am betting things turn around in a hurry with Hoiberg and his risk/reward strategy, however. Or blow up in his face like Royce White at the Mall of America.
12. Oklahoma Sooners. Losing your three best players (Willie Warren, Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin) who made up basically your entire offense is going to hurt, but perhaps not as much as any possible ramifications coming down from the NCAA due to the Tiny Gallon situation. Capel is an excellent young coach, but with nearly the entire starting lineup gone and nobody signed for after this season things aren't exactly looking up in Norman. There is some talent in the large recruiting class coming in this year, with an elite-level player in Cameron Clark, so if they can squeak past the NCAA hit squad things could turn around, but for this year they'll probably be a scrappy, last-place team that scares a lot of conference opponents at times, but loses out on talent at the end. Like Gopher football, except without the scaring opponents part. Or the scrappy part.
If you came here for baseball talk, what with the playoffs and all, don't worry your pretty little head. I'm cooking up a little ALDS primer, coming your way tomorrow. Or possibly Wednesday morning. Here's a preview: We're doomed.
1. Baylor Bears. And this would be that sleeper. They did lose three starters off the Elite 8 team from last year, including lottery pick Ekpe Udoh and starting point man Tweety Carter, but the pieces are in place for a deep run by the Bears. LaceDarius Dunn is back, might be the best guard in the nation, and is capable of taking over a game all by himself, and talented freshman center Perry Jones is the type of freshman who can carry a team and will be one of the top newcomers in the country. The key to how far they'll be able to go will be the development of a couple of sophomore guards who were bit players last year but were both highly regarded recruits. If either Nolan Dennis or A.J. Walton can fill that Tweety Carter role the Bears could absolutely be cutting down the nets at the conclusion of the season. Actually I'd even go so far as to say probably. They'll probably be cutting down the nets. Current odds: 30-1. You might want to throw a sawbuck on that.
2. Kansas Jayhawks. Like Baylor, the Jayhawks lose a lot of firepower from last year, but it's not like Kansas just goes around recruiting stiffs - there are a ton of very talented guys who will be asked to step up their contributions this year, and based on pedigree they shouldn't have a problem doing it. Assuming Josh Selby ends up being declared eligible they will be a national contender, and even if he isn't they should be a quality, deep team. I would guess he'll be cleared, being that this is Kansas and not Kentucky. Expect Kansas to be one of the best teams in the country and a top seed, only to be upset in the tournament for something like the 9th time in the last 10 years, not counting that year they won of course.
3. Kansas State Wildcats. Expect these guys to be media darlings this year (one magazine I've looked at picked them first in the conference) due to their crazy eyed coach and Jake Pullen and his beard. I absolutely love Pullen, and have written about him on this blog a couple of times, but it will be interesting to see how he responds without backcourt mate Denis Clemente this year. Still, besides Pullen there are a bunch of athletic, talented big men and wings, and if a couple of them can improve upon last year (particularly Wally Judge, a top 20 recruit according to Rivals a year ago who played only 12 minutes per game last year) they could go far. Also you know that mafia looking coach of there's has mob ties, so if anybody hears anything about a fix involving K-State can you let me know so I can throw some dollars at it?
4. Missouri Tigers. Mizzou took a hit when prized recruit (#12 according to Rivals) Tony Mitchell was ruled ineligible for the fall semester, but there's still plenty of talent returning including the team's three top scorers from last year in guards Kim English and Marcus Denmon and forward Laurence Bowers. They are pretty well stocked in both the backcourt and the frontcourt and have a very nice recruiting class coming in, even without Mitchell. The Tigers traditionally play an awesomely fun 40-minutes of hell type of ball, and with their stockpile of guards and athletic wings they're loaded for a nice run. Or, more accurately, 40 minutes of run per game.
5. Texas Longhorns. It pains me to praise them after they stole Cory Joseph from the Gophers, but the Longhorns will be much the same - supremely talented - despite losing four starters. Will that talent gel, like in 2008, or will it fizzle into disappointment as it did last year? Don't know, but it should be fun to watch. Joseph and Tristan Thompson are two of the top freshman in the country. Jai Lucas was a highly touted PG out of high school who has disappointed but is looking for a new start. Jordan Hamilton looks like a likely breakout star. Gary Johnson has been an excellent sidekick for years, but will finally be a feature player. Like I said, lots of talent. Let's see if Rick Barnes screws this one up, because you know there's only three things in Texas: steers, queers, and underachieving sports teams.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders. I'm not sure how talented they are, but they are definitely experienced with five of their top six players returning, all of whom are going to be seniors. Mike Singletary (not that one) was talented enough to score 43 against TAMU a two years ago and score 20 in a game ten times last year, and John Roberson led the Big 12 in assists last season. With some good talent coming in to join the experienced old people this team will probably end up being tough to beat. They aren't going to be any kind of real contender for the national title or anything, but they'll probably upset some of the top conference contenders at home.
7. Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado actually has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament this year, which seems weird to say but they have a couple of supremely talented players in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins. Burks actually flirted with the NBA draft this offseason after winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, but ultimately returned for another year, and Higgins has been All-Big 12 third team twice in his career. If these two get any help, any help at (from, say, former Gopher recruit Austin Dufault) all they'll threaten to make the NCAA Tournament and will be the best Buffaloes team in a long time. Although I suppose that isn't saying much since they have just two tournament appearances (and one win) since 1970. So they're due.
8. Texas A&M Aggies. While most of the other teams above them in this ranking seem to have at least one of their key contributors back, the Aggies are going to be looking for some role players to step up. David Loubeau gets the most press as a possible breakout type, but Khris Middleton is the guy I expect to make major strides and become a star. He hit double-figures in scoring in four of the Aggies last five games last season after getting there just six times prior, while hitting 12 of 22 three-pointers. He's a three point marksman who is also an athletic scorer. Or, as I like to call it, a perfect basketball player. Yes, I'm saing Middleton basketball player heading towards multiple All-American teams and a likely Hall-of-Fame NBA career. What of it?
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys. James Anderson won't be easy to replace, and losing second leading scorer Obi Muonelo is an extra little kick in the teeth, but there is some good talent returning. Marshall Moses showed some nice flashes last year, and Keiton Page is fun in that mad-bomber kind of way. Still, the key to the season might be freshman Michael Cobbins, one of the top ranked power forwards in the country according to Rivals, and the kind of player, if as good as advertised, who could take this team from "meh" to "huh."
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers. We here in Big Ten country will get to see them just a bit more often in the future, and hopefully for them the move will help their talent level because this is one of the more moribund college hoops programs in the country. That isn't to say there's no talent here - Brian Diaz is a nice seven-footer who is just a sophomore and had some high quality games for the Huskers last year- but it's not the kind of talent that's going to compete for anything meaningful. Again. Hopefully the conference move and a new stadium will help upgrade the talent level because, frankly, we've already got a Penn State.
11. Iowa State Cyclones. Freddy Hoiberg is certainly in for two very different years the next couple of seasons. Next year, with an interesting recruiting class this year (including eligibility risk Calvin Godfrey) and next joining up with Big Ten problem children Royce White and Chris Allen there will be a lot of eyes looking to see how his "take a chance on anybody with talent, despite the baggage" strategy works out. This year, however, there's no pressure and no worries because there isn't much talent (although I am a fan of Diante Garrett) and only four players are back from last year. I am betting things turn around in a hurry with Hoiberg and his risk/reward strategy, however. Or blow up in his face like Royce White at the Mall of America.
12. Oklahoma Sooners. Losing your three best players (Willie Warren, Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin) who made up basically your entire offense is going to hurt, but perhaps not as much as any possible ramifications coming down from the NCAA due to the Tiny Gallon situation. Capel is an excellent young coach, but with nearly the entire starting lineup gone and nobody signed for after this season things aren't exactly looking up in Norman. There is some talent in the large recruiting class coming in this year, with an elite-level player in Cameron Clark, so if they can squeak past the NCAA hit squad things could turn around, but for this year they'll probably be a scrappy, last-place team that scares a lot of conference opponents at times, but loses out on talent at the end. Like Gopher football, except without the scaring opponents part. Or the scrappy part.
If you came here for baseball talk, what with the playoffs and all, don't worry your pretty little head. I'm cooking up a little ALDS primer, coming your way tomorrow. Or possibly Wednesday morning. Here's a preview: We're doomed.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Week in Review - 12/28/2009
WonderbabyTM seemingly brought home what I can only assume to be the black plague from her day care, infecting everyone who got within a mile of her with a horrible stomach bug that attacked at both ends. And yes, now it's my turn to have it - joy. Yet I struggle through to still bring you, constant reader, your daily entertainment. Some of these entries I wrote earlier in the week, and some I just typed up now while running to the bathroom every five minutes. See if you can guess which are which.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Mountain West Football. Can someone tell me why the hell the MWC isn't included in this BCS garbage? The Mountain West, after Utah killed Cal and BYU thrashed Oregon State this week, is now 3-0 in bowl games, and has just been destroying anybody foolish enough to accept a bid to play against them. It started with the New Mexico Bowl, a game where Fresno was a 10-point favorite against Wyoming, but the Cowboys represented the conference well with an upset win in overtime. Then it got really fun, with the BYU destroying an almost-in-the-Rose-Bowl Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl (and it wasn't nearly that close) and then Utah winning their ninth straight bowl game in impressive fashion, stomping on Cal 37-27 in the Poinsettia Bowl. Really folks, the Mountain West's continual success against other conferences, not to mention TCU's monster year, should be all the argument you need that these guys are every bit as good as any of the other conferences out there. Time to expand the BCS agreement.
2. Elliot Williams. You familiar with this kid at all? He's the former Dukie who transferred to Memphis last season to be closer to his ailing mother who is now single-handedly making sure the Tigers are still the tops in Conference USA. He was a top 20 recruit who didn't play much for Duke last season (although he did hit double-figures in four of their last 8 games), but his transferring to Memphis has made a world of difference. After a monster game against SE Missouri State on Tuesday (20 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists) he's now averaging 20-5-4 on the season and has the Tigers at 8-2, and although I sort of think Memphis is a paper tiger this year (their best win is over Montana State), there is no doubting Williams is the real banana (perhaps even the famous "Kirk Cameron Banana").
3. Old Dominion. As badly as I wanted to include ODU last week after they knocked off Georgetown, I just couldn't find room for them. Now, after they made a pretty good Charlotte team essentially clean their room and then give them a BJ, I can't possibly keep the Monarchs and their single-handed effort to make the Colonial relevant again out any longer. These guys might be just 8-4, but they have played a bitch of a schedule and all four losses area to good teams - Dayton, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Richmond - and they had a huge week with wins over both Georgetown and Charlotte. With VCU looking very good once again (wins over Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Richmond) and William & Mary looking relevant for the first time ever (wins over Wake Forest, Richmond, and VCU), the Colonial might be looking at another multi-bid year, and ODU will be right there all season long. Ken Pomeroy agrees, his numbers have them ranked 8th in the country right now. Obviously they aren't the 8th best team, but they are certainly looking like an NCAA caliber team, and would probably beat the Gophers by ten or so.
4. USC. Can one program redeem an entire conference in one week? Of course not, that's ridiculous, but it was a great week for the Trojans who won the Diamond Head Classic and brought a little ray of hope and competitiveness to a so far pretty lackluster Pac 10. USC beat Western Michigan (yawn), St. Mary's (pretty good), and UNLV (good win) to take the championship, and in a wide open (code for sucky) Pac 10 they've suddenly become the third best team in the conference.
5. Greg Monroe. Put up an impressive 16 point, 16 rebound, 4 steal, 5 block performance in the Hoyas one-game this week, a 86-70 win over Harvard. You know how people always draft guys like Roy Hibbert, Spencer Hawes, and Hasheem Thabeet early in the lottery and then act all shocked when they turn into either stiffs or nothing more than defensive players. Watch Monroe - this is the guy you should be salivating over. 6-11, super athletic, and a good ball-handler, whoever drafts him is getting a super star. He seriously reminds me a lot of David Robinson. I would love to see the Wolves get him, even with Love and Jefferson; he could end up being a franchise changer for somebody.
WHO SUCKED
1. Oklahoma. Wow. Capel is letting things fall apart all over the place in Soonertown. They only had one game this week, one in which they got whooped by UTEP, and it did end a six-game win streak, but there are some unfortunate rumblings (and that loss to UTEP gives them four, three of which are to likely non-tournament teams which isn't good). First, Capel came out and said he was "tired of trying to figure out" star guard Willie Warren. Then, just two days later, he said he said, "It's amazing you have to tell him to be a good player" in reference to star freshman Tiny Gallon. Third, that same day, Warren came out and asked "Does he not trust me with the ball?", despite the fact that Warren ranks 21st in the country in terms of % of his team's possessions he is involved in. Like I said, the loss to UTEP isn't a killer, and even though the other three losses are not great none of them are killers, but there is some serious dissension in Oklahoma City. I have a feeling they either get their shit together and go on a run and make the tournament (the talent level here is good enough to finish as high as third in the Big 12), or this thing is going to implode in a huge, huge way. Stay tuned (note: my money is on the imploding.).
2. Tulsa. Coming into this season the Golden Hurricane was thought to be a challenger to Memphis's throne in C-USA, but has gone from contender to "has no shot at an at-large at all" in a hurry. They were in the Las Vegas Classic field this week, and essentially it should have been nothing more than an easy win over Nebraska to set up what would have been a very entertaining final against BYU.. Well, Tulsa clearly had no interest in that, instead choosing to drop that game to the Huskers and then by losing to Nevada by 30. Yes, 30. I mean it's not that the loss to Nebraska or Nevada is crippling (or their earlier loss to Missouri State), but they didn't exactly schedule themselves a whole lot of chances to get quality wins, so whiffing on these hurts. Colorado is the only decent opponent left before the C-USA season starts (and there is an unwinnable game against Duke in late February), but as it stands right now they have a nice win over Oklahoma State and that's pretty much it. Conference USA overall is better this year than it has been in the past, but Tulsa will have to have a very nice run to have a chance at an at-large.
3. New Mexico. Nothing quite like taking your school's highest ranking in ten years and just flushing it right down the toilet, eh? The Lobos had ascended all the way to #12 in the polls on the strength of a 12-0 start to the season that included wins over Cal and Texas A&M, and with a very balanced (4 double-figure scorers) and efficient (#16 offensive efficiency) team they were looking likely the favorite in the Mountain West and maybe even a sleeper to do some damange in March, but last week's game against Oral Roberts was officially a suck. The Lobos lost 75-66, thanks mainly to their two leading scorers (Roman Martinez and Darrington Hobson) combining to shoot 6-23. ORU is not a good team at just 7-6 with a couple of ugly losses mixed in their, but I'm not quite ready to dismiss the Lobos as frauds just yet. We should find out pretty quickly - UNM plays Texas Tech and Dayton next week. Stay tuned.
4. New York Giants. If you need to win out to make the playoffs, and all you have a home game against a crappy Carolina team, you probably should make more of an effort than getting steam rolled 41-9 - and once again, this was at home. The Giants turned it over 4 times and allowed Jonathan Stewart to rush for a club record 206 yards. They don't belong anywhere near the playoffs.
5. Indiana, DePaul, Florida, Illinois, and Utah. The Hoosiers lost at home to Loyola (Maryland), the Blue Demons lost to Florida-Gulf Coast, the Gators lost to South Alabama at home, the Illini got rolled by Missouri (following up a loss to Georgia), and Utah lost to Pepperdine (following up a loss to Illinois State) - take your pick for this last spot, too close to call (I'd go DePaul if I had to make a choice).
I hope to feel well enough to get a preview of the Penn State game up today or tomorrow, but just in case I don't, TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Mountain West Football. Can someone tell me why the hell the MWC isn't included in this BCS garbage? The Mountain West, after Utah killed Cal and BYU thrashed Oregon State this week, is now 3-0 in bowl games, and has just been destroying anybody foolish enough to accept a bid to play against them. It started with the New Mexico Bowl, a game where Fresno was a 10-point favorite against Wyoming, but the Cowboys represented the conference well with an upset win in overtime. Then it got really fun, with the BYU destroying an almost-in-the-Rose-Bowl Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl (and it wasn't nearly that close) and then Utah winning their ninth straight bowl game in impressive fashion, stomping on Cal 37-27 in the Poinsettia Bowl. Really folks, the Mountain West's continual success against other conferences, not to mention TCU's monster year, should be all the argument you need that these guys are every bit as good as any of the other conferences out there. Time to expand the BCS agreement.
2. Elliot Williams. You familiar with this kid at all? He's the former Dukie who transferred to Memphis last season to be closer to his ailing mother who is now single-handedly making sure the Tigers are still the tops in Conference USA. He was a top 20 recruit who didn't play much for Duke last season (although he did hit double-figures in four of their last 8 games), but his transferring to Memphis has made a world of difference. After a monster game against SE Missouri State on Tuesday (20 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists) he's now averaging 20-5-4 on the season and has the Tigers at 8-2, and although I sort of think Memphis is a paper tiger this year (their best win is over Montana State), there is no doubting Williams is the real banana (perhaps even the famous "Kirk Cameron Banana").
3. Old Dominion. As badly as I wanted to include ODU last week after they knocked off Georgetown, I just couldn't find room for them. Now, after they made a pretty good Charlotte team essentially clean their room and then give them a BJ, I can't possibly keep the Monarchs and their single-handed effort to make the Colonial relevant again out any longer. These guys might be just 8-4, but they have played a bitch of a schedule and all four losses area to good teams - Dayton, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Richmond - and they had a huge week with wins over both Georgetown and Charlotte. With VCU looking very good once again (wins over Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Richmond) and William & Mary looking relevant for the first time ever (wins over Wake Forest, Richmond, and VCU), the Colonial might be looking at another multi-bid year, and ODU will be right there all season long. Ken Pomeroy agrees, his numbers have them ranked 8th in the country right now. Obviously they aren't the 8th best team, but they are certainly looking like an NCAA caliber team, and would probably beat the Gophers by ten or so.
4. USC. Can one program redeem an entire conference in one week? Of course not, that's ridiculous, but it was a great week for the Trojans who won the Diamond Head Classic and brought a little ray of hope and competitiveness to a so far pretty lackluster Pac 10. USC beat Western Michigan (yawn), St. Mary's (pretty good), and UNLV (good win) to take the championship, and in a wide open (code for sucky) Pac 10 they've suddenly become the third best team in the conference.
5. Greg Monroe. Put up an impressive 16 point, 16 rebound, 4 steal, 5 block performance in the Hoyas one-game this week, a 86-70 win over Harvard. You know how people always draft guys like Roy Hibbert, Spencer Hawes, and Hasheem Thabeet early in the lottery and then act all shocked when they turn into either stiffs or nothing more than defensive players. Watch Monroe - this is the guy you should be salivating over. 6-11, super athletic, and a good ball-handler, whoever drafts him is getting a super star. He seriously reminds me a lot of David Robinson. I would love to see the Wolves get him, even with Love and Jefferson; he could end up being a franchise changer for somebody.
WHO SUCKED
1. Oklahoma. Wow. Capel is letting things fall apart all over the place in Soonertown. They only had one game this week, one in which they got whooped by UTEP, and it did end a six-game win streak, but there are some unfortunate rumblings (and that loss to UTEP gives them four, three of which are to likely non-tournament teams which isn't good). First, Capel came out and said he was "tired of trying to figure out" star guard Willie Warren. Then, just two days later, he said he said, "It's amazing you have to tell him to be a good player" in reference to star freshman Tiny Gallon. Third, that same day, Warren came out and asked "Does he not trust me with the ball?", despite the fact that Warren ranks 21st in the country in terms of % of his team's possessions he is involved in. Like I said, the loss to UTEP isn't a killer, and even though the other three losses are not great none of them are killers, but there is some serious dissension in Oklahoma City. I have a feeling they either get their shit together and go on a run and make the tournament (the talent level here is good enough to finish as high as third in the Big 12), or this thing is going to implode in a huge, huge way. Stay tuned (note: my money is on the imploding.).
2. Tulsa. Coming into this season the Golden Hurricane was thought to be a challenger to Memphis's throne in C-USA, but has gone from contender to "has no shot at an at-large at all" in a hurry. They were in the Las Vegas Classic field this week, and essentially it should have been nothing more than an easy win over Nebraska to set up what would have been a very entertaining final against BYU.. Well, Tulsa clearly had no interest in that, instead choosing to drop that game to the Huskers and then by losing to Nevada by 30. Yes, 30. I mean it's not that the loss to Nebraska or Nevada is crippling (or their earlier loss to Missouri State), but they didn't exactly schedule themselves a whole lot of chances to get quality wins, so whiffing on these hurts. Colorado is the only decent opponent left before the C-USA season starts (and there is an unwinnable game against Duke in late February), but as it stands right now they have a nice win over Oklahoma State and that's pretty much it. Conference USA overall is better this year than it has been in the past, but Tulsa will have to have a very nice run to have a chance at an at-large.
3. New Mexico. Nothing quite like taking your school's highest ranking in ten years and just flushing it right down the toilet, eh? The Lobos had ascended all the way to #12 in the polls on the strength of a 12-0 start to the season that included wins over Cal and Texas A&M, and with a very balanced (4 double-figure scorers) and efficient (#16 offensive efficiency) team they were looking likely the favorite in the Mountain West and maybe even a sleeper to do some damange in March, but last week's game against Oral Roberts was officially a suck. The Lobos lost 75-66, thanks mainly to their two leading scorers (Roman Martinez and Darrington Hobson) combining to shoot 6-23. ORU is not a good team at just 7-6 with a couple of ugly losses mixed in their, but I'm not quite ready to dismiss the Lobos as frauds just yet. We should find out pretty quickly - UNM plays Texas Tech and Dayton next week. Stay tuned.
4. New York Giants. If you need to win out to make the playoffs, and all you have a home game against a crappy Carolina team, you probably should make more of an effort than getting steam rolled 41-9 - and once again, this was at home. The Giants turned it over 4 times and allowed Jonathan Stewart to rush for a club record 206 yards. They don't belong anywhere near the playoffs.
5. Indiana, DePaul, Florida, Illinois, and Utah. The Hoosiers lost at home to Loyola (Maryland), the Blue Demons lost to Florida-Gulf Coast, the Gators lost to South Alabama at home, the Illini got rolled by Missouri (following up a loss to Georgia), and Utah lost to Pepperdine (following up a loss to Illinois State) - take your pick for this last spot, too close to call (I'd go DePaul if I had to make a choice).
I hope to feel well enough to get a preview of the Penn State game up today or tomorrow, but just in case I don't, TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Week in Review - 11/30/2009
Guess what I can't bring myself to talk about right now? Yep, Gopher basketball. I know this is supposedly a gopher basketball blog (and Twins), but I just can't do it. I am livid. Liv. Id. But it's really my own fault. Here I somehow started to believe this was a "special" team, meaning a sweet 16ish type. Now I'm coming to realize that it's not even close. It's just like last year - and why wouldn't it be? It's pretty much the same team. All the same warts. So we can expect to be in a fight for a bid, probably make it, and be happy with that as the upside. Great. Better than the Monson years no doubt, but I feel like a kid who just found out Santa isn't real. I can't even come close to rationally discussing this right now. And, as they say, if you can't say anything nice don't say anything at all. So I won't.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Cincinnati. If not for some Tim Donaghy-level reffing (huge foul disparity, blown call on game-winning layup attempt) and an unfortunately timed foul shooting meltdown (2-7 in overtime, with two misses by Deonta Vaughn (career 80+ shooter), the Bearcats would be returning from Maui as the champions of the Maui Classic - as it is, they return instead as a legitimate contender for the Big East title after beating two top-25 teams (Vanderbilt and Maryland) and losing in overtime to Gonzaga. I told you people this team was going to be good, and there are some very good things. Freshman Lance Stephenson has Carmelo Anthony-type potential. They have other potential stars both outside (Vaughn) and inside (Yancy Gates), are very deep, and are an excellent defensive team. I still think they have final four potential. Sure, there are some things they need to work on - they settle for too many jumpers and struggle against athletic big men, and I'm not sure about Cashmere Wright at the point just yet, but they could make some noise in March. And don't forget, Ibrahima Thomas won't be eligible until December.
2. Purdue. Even with all the cross-pollenating tournaments and all that jazz, it's still rare to get a matchup of two teams ranked in the top-11, so when that happens this early, the winner should feel pretty good about themselves. In this case and using this tortured multi-part sentence, I'm talking about Purdue and their very good 73-72 win over Tennessee in the Virgin Islands on Monday. It was the three usual suspects bringing the Boilers to victory - Robbie Hummel (20 pts, 7 rebs), the "College KG" JaJuan Johnson (11 pts), and E'Twaun Moore (22 pts) - and those three will be the key to how far the Boilers go this year, but a lot of credit needs to go to Keaton Grant, who's being forced to fill in at the point with the injury to Lewis Jackson and doing a nice job. I'm not sure when Lew-Jack is supposed to be back, but Purdue hasn't missed a beat without him.
3. John Shurna. Wasn't Northwestern supposed to be dead in the water after Coble got hurt? It certainly isn't looking that way, especially after they won the Chicago Invitational by beating Notre Dame and Iowa State, two teams with NCAA Tournament aspirations, and completely on the back of Shurna, the 6-8 sophomore who won the tournament MVP award - quite an accompishment consider Luke Harangody and Craig Brackins were both involved. And where did this come from? Shurna was a lightly recruited, 3-star player out of high school who ended up at Northwestern because they were his best offer and has suddenly turned into a Coble clone. He's the same guy, although I think Coble would beat him at horse, but he's got the same inside/outside, unathletically effective game, and he defintiely came to play this weekend. He put up 25-8-4 against Notre Dame (Harangody: 21-9-0) and 23-7-4 against Iowa State (Brackins: 18-9-3) to lead the Wildcats to what must surely be their first place trophy in anything basketball related. I hate to say it, but with Shurna and Thompson both back next year with more experience, the Coble injury might have been the best thing that could have happened to them. If they don't get their first ever NCAA bid this year, next year should be it.
4. Richmond. After losing earlier this season to William & Mary, a Spiders team that was supposed to challenge for the A-10 crown was looking like more of a CBI caliber team. They made up for that loss, however, by winning the South Padre Invitational with wins over Mississippi State and Missouri, wins that aren't what you would called marquee, but very nice quality wins that should end up looking good on selection sunday. They also got a boost with William & Mary's win at Wake Forest this weekend, which shows W&M is a legit team and softens the sting of that early season loss.
5. Florida. The Gators won the Legends Classic in Atlantic City by beating Rutgers and Michigan State (yet another Big Team who bombed this week), and started the week by crushing Florida State. I wasn't sure exactly what to make of the Gators coming in to this year, but the newcomers have been great (Kenny Boynton leads the team in scoring and Vernon Macklin is in double-figures as well), and Erving Walker is settling in as a pretty good point guard. Looks like they'll be back in tournament, and not the NIT this time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Oklahoma. Losing Blake Griffin will obviously make things a little rough, but the Sooners had Willie Warren and Tony Crocker back as well as a really nice recruiting class with two projected starters in it, so the thought was that they would be ok. Well, the Great Alaska Shootout showed that perhaps that isn't exactly the case since the Sooners came home with a prestigious 7th place trophy after going 1-2 in the frozen north. They lost to both San Diego and Houston prior before drawing the now 0-8 Nicholls State Colonels, who actually led 47-41 at one point in the second half before falling 81-60. This was basically an unequivacable disaster for Oklahoma, who were ranked 25th before this tournament. Neither Houston nor San Diego is awful, and both will probably be on the fringes of the bubble come tournament time, but you just can't do this if you're a major conference school who has hopes of competing for your league's championship. They shot 33% and were out rebounded 39-30 against San Diego in game 1 and then turned it over 18 times while allowing Houston to shoot 46% from three in game two. You can probably just go ahead and cross Oklahoma off your NCAA bid list right now. I'll bet anything it's because of Tony Crocker and his retarded long sleeve t-shirts. Either that or they miss the power of Austin Johnson's mohawk (and his Miles Tarver-look-like-ness).
2. Greivis Vasquez. Maryland had a rough go this week at the Maui Invitational, losing two out of three games - to Cincinnati by 12 and Wisconsin by 9, and picking up their only win by beating tournament host and noted high school program Chaminade in the opening round. The main issue here, is that their main man and 8th year senior Greivis Vasquez suddenly can't shoot. In the three games, he shot 2-7, 5-17, and 6-13, which is a combined 35% and actually a nice improvement on his season-total of 30% field goal shooting. Now, his other numbers are good, he's averaging a career high 6.0 assists and 2.2 steals per game, his 2.1-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is his best as well and his rebounding is right in line with his career numbers, but his scoring is at just 9.8 per game, exactly half of last year's average, and his shooting, as mentioned, as Nolen-Level atrocious. The Terps can't win without Vasquez scoring, as shown last week, so he needs to get it together if they're going to make the tournament.
3. Illinois. You know who hates Las Vegas? And no, I'm not talking about Dr. Acula, I'm talking about the not so Fighting Illini, who had an awful Las Vegas Invitational. It should have been a nice resume building weekend. Beat a crappy Utah team on Friday night and then take on Oklahoma State on Saturday - win or lose, it's overall going to help your resume. Well, things didn't quite work out, because Illinois managed to screw it up and lose to Utah on Friday, despite having a 32-16 lead at halftime, the same Utah team who lost to Seattle earlier in the week. Then, instead of at least salvaging the weekend by winning the consolation bracket with a win over Bradley, the go out and get beat by four instead. Obviously this doesn't exactly look good for the Big Ten, but hey, maybe the Illini are actually terrible and it will be a couple of easy wins for the Gophers. Special props out to "star" freshmen Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, who combined to shoot 6-27 in the tournament. If I'm an Illini fan, I'm very worried right now.
4. UCLA. Well you knew this was coming, but there's just now way to avoid pointing out the colossal flop the Bruins pulled this weekend. Even in a down year, would you ever expect the Bruins to finish 8th in an 8-team tournament? The loss to Portland is obviously not that bad, and the loss to Butler isn't a killer, but to then drop a game to Long Beach? Especially after having already gone 0-2 they knew they needed this one to salvage, well, anything, out of this, and instead got destroyed by a Dan Monson coached team. Ouch. And what the F ever happened to Drew Gordon? He was supposed to be the stud daddy, but had an awful rough weekend to go along with a subpar career so far. He failed to break 10 points or 4 rebounds in any game of the tournament, bottoming out in him just playing 12 minutes against Long Beach. I don't exactly know what's going on down in Westwood, but this is the worst I can remember the program being since I started watching basketball.
5. Arkansas. Most of the teams in either category are pretty obvious this week due to the tournaments and such. Insert winners into "awesome" and insert 8th place teams into "suck." Pretty straight forward. Arkansas (an NCAA hopeful, mind you), on the other hand, had three cupcake games this week - all home games - versus Morgan State, East Tennessee State, and South Alabama. Well guess what? They lost all three. ALL. THREE. This is, perhaps, the worst week an NCAA hopeful has ever had this early in the season against this level of opposition. Now, I know the Razorbacks are a bit hamstrung right now with Courntey Fortson still out due to some sort of disciplinary issue, but these are not losses you see from an NCAA team no matter who they're missing. In any other week, this would be by far the thing that sucked the most. But not this week.
The thing that sucked most this week was Dayton coming back and beating Towson after being down by 18 with just nine minutes to play. That would have given them an 0-2 week capped off with a loss to one of the worst programs in history, and given me an excuse use the Towson picture I have. Craptacular.
Actually, when am I ever going to have a chance another chance to use a Towson picture?
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Cincinnati. If not for some Tim Donaghy-level reffing (huge foul disparity, blown call on game-winning layup attempt) and an unfortunately timed foul shooting meltdown (2-7 in overtime, with two misses by Deonta Vaughn (career 80+ shooter), the Bearcats would be returning from Maui as the champions of the Maui Classic - as it is, they return instead as a legitimate contender for the Big East title after beating two top-25 teams (Vanderbilt and Maryland) and losing in overtime to Gonzaga. I told you people this team was going to be good, and there are some very good things. Freshman Lance Stephenson has Carmelo Anthony-type potential. They have other potential stars both outside (Vaughn) and inside (Yancy Gates), are very deep, and are an excellent defensive team. I still think they have final four potential. Sure, there are some things they need to work on - they settle for too many jumpers and struggle against athletic big men, and I'm not sure about Cashmere Wright at the point just yet, but they could make some noise in March. And don't forget, Ibrahima Thomas won't be eligible until December.
2. Purdue. Even with all the cross-pollenating tournaments and all that jazz, it's still rare to get a matchup of two teams ranked in the top-11, so when that happens this early, the winner should feel pretty good about themselves. In this case and using this tortured multi-part sentence, I'm talking about Purdue and their very good 73-72 win over Tennessee in the Virgin Islands on Monday. It was the three usual suspects bringing the Boilers to victory - Robbie Hummel (20 pts, 7 rebs), the "College KG" JaJuan Johnson (11 pts), and E'Twaun Moore (22 pts) - and those three will be the key to how far the Boilers go this year, but a lot of credit needs to go to Keaton Grant, who's being forced to fill in at the point with the injury to Lewis Jackson and doing a nice job. I'm not sure when Lew-Jack is supposed to be back, but Purdue hasn't missed a beat without him.
3. John Shurna. Wasn't Northwestern supposed to be dead in the water after Coble got hurt? It certainly isn't looking that way, especially after they won the Chicago Invitational by beating Notre Dame and Iowa State, two teams with NCAA Tournament aspirations, and completely on the back of Shurna, the 6-8 sophomore who won the tournament MVP award - quite an accompishment consider Luke Harangody and Craig Brackins were both involved. And where did this come from? Shurna was a lightly recruited, 3-star player out of high school who ended up at Northwestern because they were his best offer and has suddenly turned into a Coble clone. He's the same guy, although I think Coble would beat him at horse, but he's got the same inside/outside, unathletically effective game, and he defintiely came to play this weekend. He put up 25-8-4 against Notre Dame (Harangody: 21-9-0) and 23-7-4 against Iowa State (Brackins: 18-9-3) to lead the Wildcats to what must surely be their first place trophy in anything basketball related. I hate to say it, but with Shurna and Thompson both back next year with more experience, the Coble injury might have been the best thing that could have happened to them. If they don't get their first ever NCAA bid this year, next year should be it.
4. Richmond. After losing earlier this season to William & Mary, a Spiders team that was supposed to challenge for the A-10 crown was looking like more of a CBI caliber team. They made up for that loss, however, by winning the South Padre Invitational with wins over Mississippi State and Missouri, wins that aren't what you would called marquee, but very nice quality wins that should end up looking good on selection sunday. They also got a boost with William & Mary's win at Wake Forest this weekend, which shows W&M is a legit team and softens the sting of that early season loss.
5. Florida. The Gators won the Legends Classic in Atlantic City by beating Rutgers and Michigan State (yet another Big Team who bombed this week), and started the week by crushing Florida State. I wasn't sure exactly what to make of the Gators coming in to this year, but the newcomers have been great (Kenny Boynton leads the team in scoring and Vernon Macklin is in double-figures as well), and Erving Walker is settling in as a pretty good point guard. Looks like they'll be back in tournament, and not the NIT this time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Oklahoma. Losing Blake Griffin will obviously make things a little rough, but the Sooners had Willie Warren and Tony Crocker back as well as a really nice recruiting class with two projected starters in it, so the thought was that they would be ok. Well, the Great Alaska Shootout showed that perhaps that isn't exactly the case since the Sooners came home with a prestigious 7th place trophy after going 1-2 in the frozen north. They lost to both San Diego and Houston prior before drawing the now 0-8 Nicholls State Colonels, who actually led 47-41 at one point in the second half before falling 81-60. This was basically an unequivacable disaster for Oklahoma, who were ranked 25th before this tournament. Neither Houston nor San Diego is awful, and both will probably be on the fringes of the bubble come tournament time, but you just can't do this if you're a major conference school who has hopes of competing for your league's championship. They shot 33% and were out rebounded 39-30 against San Diego in game 1 and then turned it over 18 times while allowing Houston to shoot 46% from three in game two. You can probably just go ahead and cross Oklahoma off your NCAA bid list right now. I'll bet anything it's because of Tony Crocker and his retarded long sleeve t-shirts. Either that or they miss the power of Austin Johnson's mohawk (and his Miles Tarver-look-like-ness).
2. Greivis Vasquez. Maryland had a rough go this week at the Maui Invitational, losing two out of three games - to Cincinnati by 12 and Wisconsin by 9, and picking up their only win by beating tournament host and noted high school program Chaminade in the opening round. The main issue here, is that their main man and 8th year senior Greivis Vasquez suddenly can't shoot. In the three games, he shot 2-7, 5-17, and 6-13, which is a combined 35% and actually a nice improvement on his season-total of 30% field goal shooting. Now, his other numbers are good, he's averaging a career high 6.0 assists and 2.2 steals per game, his 2.1-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is his best as well and his rebounding is right in line with his career numbers, but his scoring is at just 9.8 per game, exactly half of last year's average, and his shooting, as mentioned, as Nolen-Level atrocious. The Terps can't win without Vasquez scoring, as shown last week, so he needs to get it together if they're going to make the tournament.
3. Illinois. You know who hates Las Vegas? And no, I'm not talking about Dr. Acula, I'm talking about the not so Fighting Illini, who had an awful Las Vegas Invitational. It should have been a nice resume building weekend. Beat a crappy Utah team on Friday night and then take on Oklahoma State on Saturday - win or lose, it's overall going to help your resume. Well, things didn't quite work out, because Illinois managed to screw it up and lose to Utah on Friday, despite having a 32-16 lead at halftime, the same Utah team who lost to Seattle earlier in the week. Then, instead of at least salvaging the weekend by winning the consolation bracket with a win over Bradley, the go out and get beat by four instead. Obviously this doesn't exactly look good for the Big Ten, but hey, maybe the Illini are actually terrible and it will be a couple of easy wins for the Gophers. Special props out to "star" freshmen Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, who combined to shoot 6-27 in the tournament. If I'm an Illini fan, I'm very worried right now.
4. UCLA. Well you knew this was coming, but there's just now way to avoid pointing out the colossal flop the Bruins pulled this weekend. Even in a down year, would you ever expect the Bruins to finish 8th in an 8-team tournament? The loss to Portland is obviously not that bad, and the loss to Butler isn't a killer, but to then drop a game to Long Beach? Especially after having already gone 0-2 they knew they needed this one to salvage, well, anything, out of this, and instead got destroyed by a Dan Monson coached team. Ouch. And what the F ever happened to Drew Gordon? He was supposed to be the stud daddy, but had an awful rough weekend to go along with a subpar career so far. He failed to break 10 points or 4 rebounds in any game of the tournament, bottoming out in him just playing 12 minutes against Long Beach. I don't exactly know what's going on down in Westwood, but this is the worst I can remember the program being since I started watching basketball.
5. Arkansas. Most of the teams in either category are pretty obvious this week due to the tournaments and such. Insert winners into "awesome" and insert 8th place teams into "suck." Pretty straight forward. Arkansas (an NCAA hopeful, mind you), on the other hand, had three cupcake games this week - all home games - versus Morgan State, East Tennessee State, and South Alabama. Well guess what? They lost all three. ALL. THREE. This is, perhaps, the worst week an NCAA hopeful has ever had this early in the season against this level of opposition. Now, I know the Razorbacks are a bit hamstrung right now with Courntey Fortson still out due to some sort of disciplinary issue, but these are not losses you see from an NCAA team no matter who they're missing. In any other week, this would be by far the thing that sucked the most. But not this week.
The thing that sucked most this week was Dayton coming back and beating Towson after being down by 18 with just nine minutes to play. That would have given them an 0-2 week capped off with a loss to one of the worst programs in history, and given me an excuse use the Towson picture I have. Craptacular.
Actually, when am I ever going to have a chance another chance to use a Towson picture?
Friday, October 16, 2009
NCAA Basketball Preview: The Big 12
There are two teams here that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, but most of the rest of the conference's teams are no slouches following them. Other than a couple of bottom feeders, almost everybody should be in the mix for an NCAA bid at some point.
1. Kansas. There are some loaded teams this year, but it would be hard to argue that another team out there is as talented or as loaded as the Jayhawks. They have it inside with Cole Aldrich, who makes my heart hurt every time I see him. They have it outside with Sherron Collins, who transition from supporting player to lead-dog brilliantly last season. They have experience, with everybody back from last year's Sweet 16 team. They have youth coming in, with three very talented sophomores who should be even better this year, as well as one of the top recruiting classes in the country coming in, topped by SG Xavier Henry, Rivals #8 prospect. They deep at every position, with 8 guys who averaged more than 12 minutes per game last season. Simply put, there's nothing not to like about Kansas this year, as long as they don't get in any more fist fights with the football team.
2. Texas. One of the few teams in the country who can legitimately claim they might have a better recruiting class this year than the Jayhawks, Texas brings in two Top 10 recruits in guards Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton, and two others in the top 75 as well. If that's not enough, PG Jai Lucas, a top 50 recruit when he originally signed with Florida, has transferred in and should fit in well since he won't need to score. The Longhorns only really significant loss was guard A.J. Abrams, who you will remember as the Gopher destroyer, but I don't think that will hurt much. In a couple of the games I watched last year, their offense would some times get caught up in trying to force him the ball, and that won't be a concern this year. Like Kansas, Texas is loaded in every way and everywhere.
3. Oklahoma. It's always tough to start over when you lose a guy like the genetically engineered in a lab Blake Griffin, and the Sooners also lose their Cooper Manning in Blake's brother Taylor as well as starting guard Austin Johnson and his freaky-deaky mohawk. So why pick them third? Simple: Willie Warren (who I actually thought was Johnson at one point, mostly because I liked the 'hawk) and a recruiting class right on par with KU and Texas. Warren is a complete guard who can score inside and out, and managed to average nearly 15 points per game in a role where his job was to compliment Griffin (Blake not Taylor), with him turned loose this season, he could be a superstar. Tony Crocker and his stupid long-sleeved T-shirt are also back to annoy you.
4. Oklahoma State. The Cowboys finally broke through last year, reaching the NCAA Tournament (and beating Tennessee) after three straight NIT trips, and their reward is losing their entire starting back court. Luckily for them, they will have two of their top players back, both wing types in James Anderson and Obi Muonelo. Anderson is really impressive, a 40% three-point shooter who is also nearly impossible to stop when he's driving to the basket and plays his best against good teams (his two highest scoring outputs last season were 35 against Texas and 37 against Oklahoma). His 1/1.4 asist to turnover ratio is troubling, however. OSU also has a good recruiting class that would have been better if their top recruit wouldn't have been bounced for academics. Three of the newcomers are point guards and one of them will have to be able to step in for departed PG Byron Eaton - that could be the key to their season.
5. Kansas State. A few short years ago, K-State picked up Beasely and Billy Walker and was suddenly relevant to the college basketball landscape. Huggins then bolted for West Virginia, Beasley and Walker headed to the NBA, and the Wildcats were in danger of sinking back into obscurity. Luckily for them, it turns out Frank Martin is a pretty good recruiter, too, and he brings in a very nice class. The star is Rivals #19 recruit Wally Judge, a 6-9 power forward who was named a McDonald's All-American and will make a big impact. He's joined by two other top 150 guys, as well as UCONN transfer small forward Curtis Kelly, who was a top 30 recruit in 2006. Add in a good returning back court in Denis Clemente (who dropped 44 on Texas last year) and frustratingly awesome point guard Jacob Pullen, who is equally likely to score 20, dish ten assists, or go 1-13 and turn it over seven times (which he did against Texas), and KSU is going to be an interesting team.
6. Texas A&M. Every year I dismiss the Aggies as a fluky school that managed to somehow wrangle an NCAA bid despite being mediocre team. Then I was doing some research for this, and read that they have now made the tournament four straight years, winning at least one game each year. It may be time to pay more attention - especially because they have top shelf recruiting classes coming in 2009 and in 2010. The most exciting newcomer to me is Khris Middleton, although not the highest ranked (two other guys rank above him). He's gone from a non-ranked player to breaking into the Rivals 150 (#140) after averaging over 24 points a game his senior year. He's 6-7 and the reports I have read describe him as a "slasher", an "athlete", and a "terrific outside shooter." Sounds outstanding - I'm giddy and I'm not even a fan. I'm so excited, I'm actually going to give him his own label. Look below, it's there. I might even have to try to find him on facebook. They also have improving center Bryan Davis back, mostly known for looking like an older Shelden Williams. You read that right.
7. Baylor. Man did this team break my heart last year. They were my secret bargain futures bet at 40-1 to win the whole thing, with a team loaded with good guards, everybody back from an NCAA tournament team last year, and just a good vibe. They beat both Providence and Arizona State, and hung tough with Wake in an early season tournament and I was feeling it. Then they won just five conference games and didn't even make the big dance, settling for an NIT bid whereupon they got their collective shit together and made it to the championship game. Too little, too late, asshats. Anyway, they lose two of their good guards but still have two more back, and they gain something they haven't had in years - a big time inside defensive presence in Ekpe Udoh, a transfer from Michigan who you may remember as offensively challenged but a very good shotblocker. They will need someone to become a third scorer, but with two very good recruiting classes the next two years (and another on the way in 2010), they should be just fine.
8. Iowa State. The Cyclones have probably the best player in the conference back in power forward Craig Brackins, who averaged 20.2 points (2nd in conf.) and 9.5 rebounds (3rd) per game last season and was a near-lock as a lottery pick for the NBA draft before he surprisingly decided to return to Ames, which is even more shocking since it seems every season since Jake Sullivan graduated has seen a mass exodus of players every offseason. Not this year, since almost the entire team returns and should be much improved this season. They are also joined by a couple of top 100 JuCo players, although that list can be a mixed bag at best, but both are described as very athletic and one was a highly regarded prospect coming out of high school and the other was named the Big 12 Preseason Newcomer of the Year. McDermott seems to have Iowa State back on the right track, especially if the hometown squad can snag Harrison Barnes away from Duke or UNC - which is starting to sound less and less likely.
9. Missouri. A very fun team to watch last year, and a pretty fun program ever since the days of Rickey Paulding and Big Artie, I'm not sure what to make of the squad this season. With Coach Mike Anderson back, you can expect them to continue with the "40 minutes of hell" style game plan, but they will have to do without last year's top three scorers, including star forwards Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll who were not only good players, but also fit the system perfectly. Luckily, they are getting back all their main ballhandlers, including starters J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor and add in the Missouri High School Player of the Year in Michael Dixon, so the backcourt is in good shape - key for an uptempo attack. They will just need somebody to stand out in the frontcourt, and while there are plenty of candidates, there's no obvious option.
10. Texas Tech. Pat Knight has done a hell of a job breaking down what daddy built in Lubbock, getting to the point where he described going into games as "going to a gun fight with a squirt gun." Ouch. And since he hasn't done much in terms of recruiting talent, he's turning to the JuCo ranks this year, which should be interesting at the very least. The Red Raiders are bringing in and expecting significant contributions from three Jucos who ranked in the top 33 on Juco Junction's Top 150, highlighted by #7 Brad Reese who had originally signed with LSU. Will it work? Who the hell knows, junior college players are always a crapshoot, but it's an interesting strategy, especially for a team with three double-digit scorers returning. That group includes forward Mike Singletary, who notched two double-doubles as well as a 43 point outburst in the team's last four games last year.
11. Nebraska. I know virtually nothing about Nebraska basketball outside of that little weiner guard a few years back who spelled his name Cochrane or something but pronounced all frenchy, but that's ok, because in my experience people in Nebraska don't know much about Husker basketball either. When I had to go to Lincoln a couple of years ago for work, I started talking with the guy I was meeting with there about sports and mentioned that without a pro sports franchise in the state and only one major university, U of Nebraska sports must be pretty huge. He affirmed this, and then started talking about Nebraska football. Then Nebraska baseball. Then women's volleyball. Then swimming, track & field, and softball. Didn't even mention basketball until I asked him, and then he talked about Creighton. So, yeah, 11th place sounds about right.
12. Colorado. I'm really struggling to write something positive here, but I can't seem to come up with anything. I can't remember the last time the Buffaloes were relevant, and the that includes the recent few years when they had Richard Roby, one of the better Big 12 players in his years at Boulder. There's a sliver of hope here, with a good returning backcourt in All-Big 12 Third Teamer Cory Higgins and returning double-digit scorer Dwight Thorne, and with almost Wolves' head coach Jeff Bzdelik on board you have to think he'll get the program turned in the right direction, as he did at Air Force. But really, the most exciting news is incoming freshman Shannon Sharpe, who obviously has a famous name, but even better is described in Athlon Magazine as "a Youtube sensation." I haven't bothered to look him up or anything, but man, that sounds cool.
Holy crap is this conference deep this year. There are about nine teams here with a reasonable hope for an NCAA Bid. I don't remember who they play in their cross conference challenge thing (gun to my head I think it's the Pac 10), but I bet they end up winning it.
Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
Atlantic Coast
1. Kansas. There are some loaded teams this year, but it would be hard to argue that another team out there is as talented or as loaded as the Jayhawks. They have it inside with Cole Aldrich, who makes my heart hurt every time I see him. They have it outside with Sherron Collins, who transition from supporting player to lead-dog brilliantly last season. They have experience, with everybody back from last year's Sweet 16 team. They have youth coming in, with three very talented sophomores who should be even better this year, as well as one of the top recruiting classes in the country coming in, topped by SG Xavier Henry, Rivals #8 prospect. They deep at every position, with 8 guys who averaged more than 12 minutes per game last season. Simply put, there's nothing not to like about Kansas this year, as long as they don't get in any more fist fights with the football team.
2. Texas. One of the few teams in the country who can legitimately claim they might have a better recruiting class this year than the Jayhawks, Texas brings in two Top 10 recruits in guards Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton, and two others in the top 75 as well. If that's not enough, PG Jai Lucas, a top 50 recruit when he originally signed with Florida, has transferred in and should fit in well since he won't need to score. The Longhorns only really significant loss was guard A.J. Abrams, who you will remember as the Gopher destroyer, but I don't think that will hurt much. In a couple of the games I watched last year, their offense would some times get caught up in trying to force him the ball, and that won't be a concern this year. Like Kansas, Texas is loaded in every way and everywhere.
3. Oklahoma. It's always tough to start over when you lose a guy like the genetically engineered in a lab Blake Griffin, and the Sooners also lose their Cooper Manning in Blake's brother Taylor as well as starting guard Austin Johnson and his freaky-deaky mohawk. So why pick them third? Simple: Willie Warren (who I actually thought was Johnson at one point, mostly because I liked the 'hawk) and a recruiting class right on par with KU and Texas. Warren is a complete guard who can score inside and out, and managed to average nearly 15 points per game in a role where his job was to compliment Griffin (Blake not Taylor), with him turned loose this season, he could be a superstar. Tony Crocker and his stupid long-sleeved T-shirt are also back to annoy you.
4. Oklahoma State. The Cowboys finally broke through last year, reaching the NCAA Tournament (and beating Tennessee) after three straight NIT trips, and their reward is losing their entire starting back court. Luckily for them, they will have two of their top players back, both wing types in James Anderson and Obi Muonelo. Anderson is really impressive, a 40% three-point shooter who is also nearly impossible to stop when he's driving to the basket and plays his best against good teams (his two highest scoring outputs last season were 35 against Texas and 37 against Oklahoma). His 1/1.4 asist to turnover ratio is troubling, however. OSU also has a good recruiting class that would have been better if their top recruit wouldn't have been bounced for academics. Three of the newcomers are point guards and one of them will have to be able to step in for departed PG Byron Eaton - that could be the key to their season.
5. Kansas State. A few short years ago, K-State picked up Beasely and Billy Walker and was suddenly relevant to the college basketball landscape. Huggins then bolted for West Virginia, Beasley and Walker headed to the NBA, and the Wildcats were in danger of sinking back into obscurity. Luckily for them, it turns out Frank Martin is a pretty good recruiter, too, and he brings in a very nice class. The star is Rivals #19 recruit Wally Judge, a 6-9 power forward who was named a McDonald's All-American and will make a big impact. He's joined by two other top 150 guys, as well as UCONN transfer small forward Curtis Kelly, who was a top 30 recruit in 2006. Add in a good returning back court in Denis Clemente (who dropped 44 on Texas last year) and frustratingly awesome point guard Jacob Pullen, who is equally likely to score 20, dish ten assists, or go 1-13 and turn it over seven times (which he did against Texas), and KSU is going to be an interesting team.
6. Texas A&M. Every year I dismiss the Aggies as a fluky school that managed to somehow wrangle an NCAA bid despite being mediocre team. Then I was doing some research for this, and read that they have now made the tournament four straight years, winning at least one game each year. It may be time to pay more attention - especially because they have top shelf recruiting classes coming in 2009 and in 2010. The most exciting newcomer to me is Khris Middleton, although not the highest ranked (two other guys rank above him). He's gone from a non-ranked player to breaking into the Rivals 150 (#140) after averaging over 24 points a game his senior year. He's 6-7 and the reports I have read describe him as a "slasher", an "athlete", and a "terrific outside shooter." Sounds outstanding - I'm giddy and I'm not even a fan. I'm so excited, I'm actually going to give him his own label. Look below, it's there. I might even have to try to find him on facebook. They also have improving center Bryan Davis back, mostly known for looking like an older Shelden Williams. You read that right.
7. Baylor. Man did this team break my heart last year. They were my secret bargain futures bet at 40-1 to win the whole thing, with a team loaded with good guards, everybody back from an NCAA tournament team last year, and just a good vibe. They beat both Providence and Arizona State, and hung tough with Wake in an early season tournament and I was feeling it. Then they won just five conference games and didn't even make the big dance, settling for an NIT bid whereupon they got their collective shit together and made it to the championship game. Too little, too late, asshats. Anyway, they lose two of their good guards but still have two more back, and they gain something they haven't had in years - a big time inside defensive presence in Ekpe Udoh, a transfer from Michigan who you may remember as offensively challenged but a very good shotblocker. They will need someone to become a third scorer, but with two very good recruiting classes the next two years (and another on the way in 2010), they should be just fine.
8. Iowa State. The Cyclones have probably the best player in the conference back in power forward Craig Brackins, who averaged 20.2 points (2nd in conf.) and 9.5 rebounds (3rd) per game last season and was a near-lock as a lottery pick for the NBA draft before he surprisingly decided to return to Ames, which is even more shocking since it seems every season since Jake Sullivan graduated has seen a mass exodus of players every offseason. Not this year, since almost the entire team returns and should be much improved this season. They are also joined by a couple of top 100 JuCo players, although that list can be a mixed bag at best, but both are described as very athletic and one was a highly regarded prospect coming out of high school and the other was named the Big 12 Preseason Newcomer of the Year. McDermott seems to have Iowa State back on the right track, especially if the hometown squad can snag Harrison Barnes away from Duke or UNC - which is starting to sound less and less likely.
9. Missouri. A very fun team to watch last year, and a pretty fun program ever since the days of Rickey Paulding and Big Artie, I'm not sure what to make of the squad this season. With Coach Mike Anderson back, you can expect them to continue with the "40 minutes of hell" style game plan, but they will have to do without last year's top three scorers, including star forwards Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll who were not only good players, but also fit the system perfectly. Luckily, they are getting back all their main ballhandlers, including starters J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor and add in the Missouri High School Player of the Year in Michael Dixon, so the backcourt is in good shape - key for an uptempo attack. They will just need somebody to stand out in the frontcourt, and while there are plenty of candidates, there's no obvious option.
10. Texas Tech. Pat Knight has done a hell of a job breaking down what daddy built in Lubbock, getting to the point where he described going into games as "going to a gun fight with a squirt gun." Ouch. And since he hasn't done much in terms of recruiting talent, he's turning to the JuCo ranks this year, which should be interesting at the very least. The Red Raiders are bringing in and expecting significant contributions from three Jucos who ranked in the top 33 on Juco Junction's Top 150, highlighted by #7 Brad Reese who had originally signed with LSU. Will it work? Who the hell knows, junior college players are always a crapshoot, but it's an interesting strategy, especially for a team with three double-digit scorers returning. That group includes forward Mike Singletary, who notched two double-doubles as well as a 43 point outburst in the team's last four games last year.
11. Nebraska. I know virtually nothing about Nebraska basketball outside of that little weiner guard a few years back who spelled his name Cochrane or something but pronounced all frenchy, but that's ok, because in my experience people in Nebraska don't know much about Husker basketball either. When I had to go to Lincoln a couple of years ago for work, I started talking with the guy I was meeting with there about sports and mentioned that without a pro sports franchise in the state and only one major university, U of Nebraska sports must be pretty huge. He affirmed this, and then started talking about Nebraska football. Then Nebraska baseball. Then women's volleyball. Then swimming, track & field, and softball. Didn't even mention basketball until I asked him, and then he talked about Creighton. So, yeah, 11th place sounds about right.
12. Colorado. I'm really struggling to write something positive here, but I can't seem to come up with anything. I can't remember the last time the Buffaloes were relevant, and the that includes the recent few years when they had Richard Roby, one of the better Big 12 players in his years at Boulder. There's a sliver of hope here, with a good returning backcourt in All-Big 12 Third Teamer Cory Higgins and returning double-digit scorer Dwight Thorne, and with almost Wolves' head coach Jeff Bzdelik on board you have to think he'll get the program turned in the right direction, as he did at Air Force. But really, the most exciting news is incoming freshman Shannon Sharpe, who obviously has a famous name, but even better is described in Athlon Magazine as "a Youtube sensation." I haven't bothered to look him up or anything, but man, that sounds cool.
Holy crap is this conference deep this year. There are about nine teams here with a reasonable hope for an NCAA Bid. I don't remember who they play in their cross conference challenge thing (gun to my head I think it's the Pac 10), but I bet they end up winning it.
Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
Atlantic Coast
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Here's What's Going to Happen: South Bracket
FIRST ROUND
#1 North Carolina over #16 Radford. Second biggest margin of victory in the whole tournament.
#9 Butler over #8 LSU. Seems odd that LSU would be favored over Butler, but I suppose with Butler losing in the Horizon tournament it makes some sense. One interesting fun fact I found is that Butler relies on making free throws a lot in order to score their points. If LSU can keep from fouling them, they might take this one.
#12 Western Kentucky over #5 Illinois. I have a feeling this is going to be a popular pick after WKU's run to the sweet 16 last year, but I have to go ahead and make it as well. The Illinois offense is just way too unpredictable, and can go for far too long periods of time for them to make a run in the tournament, and it wouldn't be shocking for them to go dead on offense right away in the first round, especially with Chester Frazier banged up. WKU isn't a particularly great defensive squad, but I don't know that you have to be to shut down the crapass Illini.
#4 Gonzaga over #13 Akron. I almost took the Zips here, really I did. They play very good defense, and are one of the best in the country at turning their opponents over. Unfortunately, I can't get past my love for Gonzaga this year. I think they are absolutely one of the best teams in the country this year. Austin Daye might be one of my favorite players and he and Heytveldt for a great tandem in the paint (and outside it) when Heytveldt isn't high, and both Heytveldt and Bouldin shoot over 50% from the field - and Bouldin is a guard. With Pargo running things, the Bulldogs could go far.
#6 Arizona State over #11 Temple. Rich Harden and Jeff Pendergaph are absolutely one of the best NBA Jam style tandems in the country. Temple has some weirdo named Christmas.
#3 Syracuse over #14 Stephen F. Austin. Shouldn't be an issue for the Orange, and I stress shouldn't be. There are a couple of reasons things could get dicey, however. SFA is one of the slowest teams in the country, and also one of the best defensively, holding opponents to just 28% shooting from three and 42% from two. Those are awesome numbers. If they can keep the Orange from scoring, they aren't the most disciplined team in the world and could implode. Of course, those gaudy defensive numbers come from a team with a Strength of Schedule that was 219th in the country, but hey, it could happen.
#10 Michigan over #7 Clemson. Doesn't Clemson seem like the kind of team that would choke here? And doesn't Manny Harris seem like exactly the type of player to raise his game on the big stage?
#2 Oklahoma over #15 Morgan State. This will be the biggest margin of victory in the entire tournament.
SECOND ROUND
#1 North Carolina over #9 Butler. Butler is cute, really they are, but they aren't nearly as good as last year and will be exposed in a huge way by the juggernaut that is the Tar Heels. Of course, if Lawson can't play or something, this gets a whole lot more interesting.
#4 Gonzaga over #12 Western Kentucky. As I said above, I love the Zags this year.
#6 Arizona State over #3 Syracuse. This is going to be a barn burner. I've gone back and forth on this one about ten times, and I just can't make up my mind. Right now, I'm feeling Arizona State will be able to take it, based simply on how good James Harden is.
#2 Oklahoma over #10 Michigan. The Wolverines have zero answer for stupid Blake Griffin. Not even a little bit.
SWEET SIXTEEN
#4 Gonzaga over #1 North Carolina. Seriously, I really like Gonzaga this year. I also don't like the matchup for the Heels, who I pretty much had in my final four all season long until about five minutes ago. Just looking at numbers, North Carolina relies heavily on the two-point shot over the three pointer, and the Bulldogs are awesome at defending the two - their only defensive weakness lies in defending the three which is not going to be a major factor. Neither team turns it over, and both offenses are incredibly efficient. UNC relies on the free throw line to get a ton of it's points (if you watched Hansbrough you know this), but Gonzaga is one of the best at not fouling. As long as the Bulldogs can keep them off the o-boards, they can win. I think they do it. Look out for Austin "All" Day baby.
#2 Oklahoma over #6 Arizona State. Griffin and the Sooners face a good post man here for the first time, but he's also all kinds of the wrong matchup for the Sun Devils. Jeff Pendergaph is a skilled big man, but he doesn't have the strength or size to handle Griffin. I know I keep emphasizing Blake, but seriously, he's pretty much the whole team.
ELITE 8
#4 Gonzaga over #2 Oklahoma. The Sooners finally run into a team that can deal with Griffin in the Bulldgos and Josh Heytveldt. If Gonzaga has a defensive weakness, it's quick guards with some size, and Willie Warren will end up being the key to this game more so than Griffin. I think Pargo can handle him, and I think the Zags finally break through and make their elusive first final four appearance.
BOO YA.
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