Previewing the Sweet 16 - Friday

Small loss yesterday pretty much because of the 5 unit loss on the Wis/UNC under.  I still feel like I read that game right as it was just a 60 possession game so I nailed the pace. Carolina hitting 8 of 13 three point attempts really sunk me.  I figured Wisconsin would are UNC to shoot and they'd miss a bunch, but they nailed them so what are you gonna do?  Even given that I still had a chance until that stupid UNC foul on the perimeter with less than a minute left took out the possibility of Bucky running the clock down.  Whatevs.  We move on.  Had most of the other stuff nailed.  Here's what I'm thinking for Friday.



UCLA vs. Gonzaga.  I really, really, really didn't expect UCLA to get here, so I'm at a bit of a loss. Bryce Alford, who was becoming more and more of a chucker as the year went on, has been white hot in the tournament, and after a lucky, grind it out win against SMU (with a questionable call to boot) they looked like an absolute offensive juggernaut against UAB.  That might not sound like much, but don't forget the Blazers pretty much completely shut down Iowa State.  Is UCLA a lucky team who snuck into the tournament undeservedly, lucked into a first round win, and then decimated a shoddy opponent in round 2?  Or are they a team worthy of inclusion who has won two games playing vastly different styles and is now peaking at the right time?

Nothing in these teams' profiles suggests the Bruins have a prayer of stopping Gonzaga.  The Bulldogs are a smoothly run offensive operation with plenty of firepower both inside and outside and other than some suspect free throw shooting from their big guys no real weaknesses.  UCLA is going to have to score to keep up with them, and the Zags defense is far superior to the Bruins so it won't be easy.  They're going to want to try to get down the court as soon as possible with their athletes and try to get moving towards the basket before Gonzaga can get their half court defense set up, but an uptempo game also suits the Bulldogs just fine.

These teams played earlier this year, with Gonzaga coming out ahead 87-74.  The Zags absolutely shredded the UCLA defense with the Bruins hanging as close as they did thanks to good 3-point shooting and a bunch of offensive rebounds.  I don't really see much of any reason to expect anything wildly different, though without question this is the game I feel I have the shakiest read on.

Bet:  Gonzaga -8.5 (1 UNIT), Over 146 (1 UNIT)

Louisville vs. North Carolina State: I’m such a horrible traitor. For years I've been a huge Rick Pitino fan, which helps to explain some of my enthusiasm at the Gophers’ hiring of his son, and have always backed them to overachieve in the NCAA Tournament. I won a 20-1 future bet three years ago when they won the title and won my NCAA pool the year he won with that awesome Tony Delk Kentucky team and that should have been enough to make me a believer for life, and I thought I was. So why did I pick Louisville to lose to UC-Irvine? Was I enthralled with that giant 7-6 guy? Did I think losing Chris Jones would make a chaotic, and sometimes limited, offensive team even more chaotic? Did I think a poor close to the season made the Cardinals a prime candidate to flame out early?  Yes to all of it.  I'm horrible.  It's Rick Pitino, you dummy.

Of course, we can't discount NC State seeing as they completely dismantled what I thought was a very good Villanova team, not to mention beating a very athletic LSU squad in round 1.  Both teams have played tremendous defense in the tournament thus far holding all opponents far under their points per possession average with both putting up an extremely impressive performance versus an elite offensive team (Northern Iowa and Villanova). Both teams do it with a hellacious half court defense, though Louisville holds an edge here because they also excel at causing turnovers whereas NC State never does.  Neither team shoots the ball particularly well, so if this turns into a half court game it could end up quite a slogfest.

It will most likely end up that way, at least on the NC State end since the Wolfpack like to take their time and the Louisville defense, despite the press, generally forces teams to take up quite a bit of the shot clock on each possession.  Louisville will probably get a few easy baskets in transition thanks to turnovers, though NC State is pretty good at taking care of the ball, and they'll need them since their tendency is take a lot of terrible long twos.  I have a feeling this is going to be a very ugly game, or a beautiful game if you like defense.  In that case I'd be crazy to pick against Rick Pitino again.

Bet:  Louisville -3 (2 UNITS), Under 130 (4 UNITS)

Utah vs. Duke.  The Blue Devil start and end with Jahlil Okafor, who is the key to everything they do on offense.  He has an incredibly polished game in the post, is an adept and smart enough passer to find open shooters when double-teamed, and is a terror on the offensive boards.  He struggles against defenders who can match his size, however, and I found a little factoid that he's averaged just 11.6 points per game against teams with a 7-footer they can throw at him.  Well guess what?  Utah has two in Jakob Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, and neither are just a big body, both have skill.  This bodes well for the Utes.  Not that Okafor is all Duke has, especially with Justise Winslow really coming on in the tournament, but having the ability to potentially limit Okafor is a really good start.

Offensively Utah also matches up well against Duke.  The Blue Devils excel at perimeter defense giving up very few three pointers and they rarely foul, but over 60% of their points allowed this year came from 2-point shots, not a problem for Utah since they shot 53% from there this year.  They were a little more reliant on three pointers than you'd like to see in this spot, but shooting 41% from behind the line on the year can do that to a team.  At least you know that even if they get limited looks they should be able to knock them down.  Delon Wright is an underrated super star at guard for Utah and he should be able to get into the lane against Duke, which could create some of those open looks.

If this becomes a half court game, I really like the Utes' chances.  I think their size on defense and ability to pound the ball in the paint are huge issues for Duke.  Even if Duke tries to get up and run, and they will, Utah's offense should be good enough to keep pace.

Bet:  Utah +6 (3 UNITS), Over 134 (1 UNIT)

Michigan State vs. Oklahoma. Two inconsistent teams (MSU lost to Texas Southern and Nebraska this year, Oklahoma lost to Washington and was swept by Kansas State) who seem to be peaking at the right time, this should be a pretty entertaining game. Though both teams play great defense, both also enjoy running with much quicker average possession times on offense than on defense. The Spartans defense generally ends up with them playing games that look to be slower tempo but their opponents average time of possession was 20.1 seconds, the second slowest mark in the country. That’s against plodding big ten teams, not a team like Oklahoma who averages under 17 seconds per possession, one of the quickest in the nation. This reads like a potential track meet to me, so the question is: who wins a track meet?

The Sooners were 6-4 this year in games against the kenpom 100 that hit 70 possessions or more; the Spartans 1-2. Sparty is definitely a deeper squad, but with almost a week of rest at this point in the season that’s pretty meaningless outside of foul trouble and neither team draws many fouls, so that advantage is pretty much irrelevant. Michigan State is a better rebounding team by a little bit, but if this game goes as I’m picturing it that won’t matter all that much either. Same goes for Oklahoma’s advantage in the turnover department, which could come into play but it’s small enough and this game should be wide open enough I don’t think it matters all that much.

I guess, in my opinion, it’s all going to come down to making shots. Michigan State is a better shot making team, but Oklahoma is a better shot defending team. Oklahoma has the best offensive weapon in Buddy Hield, but Michigan State probably has the next three in Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Oklahoma is a great free throw shooting team, while Michigan State is terrible. How much is that going to matter in a game where neither team draws many fouls? I really don’t know. I don’t have a great read on the side here, but I think we’ll see points.

Bet: Oklahoma +2.5 (1 UNIT), OVER 134 (3 UNITS)

A Whole Bunch of Weekend Tournaments

Well I guess the Gophers at least made it somewhat competitive.  Some other stuff happened around the country too.  Whatever.

COLONIAL CONFERENCE:
The CAA used to be maybe the premier mid-major conference, but alignment can be a bitch and losses of VCU, George Mason, and Old Dominion (all in the top 4 all-time for CAA championships) will do that to you.  There's not a whole lot to love here.  Northeastern beat Florida State and Richmond, while James Madison also beat Richmond.  That's about the list of notable non-conference victories.  You're also looking at four teams tied at the top of the conference at 12-6 so yeah, another crap shoot.

FAVORITE:  William & Mary.  The Tribe grab the #1 seed via tiebreakers, and although Northeastern has a slightly better kenpom rating it's not really that big a deal because I have no idea about this conference anyway.  They also went 5-1 against the three other teams they tied with (which was probably the tie breaker) which really just means they lost to a whole bunch of bad teams.  The Tribe also boast a big time scorer in Marcus Thornton (no not that one.  Or that one) at 19.4ppg, and a guy who I can only assume will be Defensive Player of the Year in Terry Tarpey considering he led the CAA in rebounding (8.4pg), blocks (1.4pg), and steals (1.8pg).  Damn that's impressive.

SLEEPER:  Hofstra.  They finished just behind the mishmash at the top at 10-8 in conference play, and the Pride most interest me because they can score.  They play at an insane tempo, don't turn the ball over, and are a great shooting team all of which means POINTS.  They are 16th in the country in points per game this year, and if you take out the teams which helped their averages beating up on a bunch of bottom feeder teams, while Hofstra is a bottom feeder team (or maybe middle, if I'm feeling generous) the Pride get into the top 10.  Anybody who can score like that has a chance to get hot, and hot is deadly in March.  Also wouldn't hurt to consider playing a little bit of defense.

THE PICK:  Hofstra.  When the conference is as jumbled as this, it seems to best to me to find something that stands out about someone.  Northeastern has those two "good" wins, but closed the season on a troubling skid.  William & Mary went 5-1 against the other top teams, but have the worst defense in the conference.  Delaware has the league's leading scorer but is a mess in every other way, and Wilmington can play D but can't score.  I considered James Madison, who finished out the year winning six of seven, but only one of those wins was against a good team.  Hofstra, along with that offense, tightened up the defense in conference play and is one of only two conference teams (along with Northeastern) to finish in the top 3 in the CAA in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play.  Good enough.


SOUTHERN CONFERENCE:
When you take the Davidson out of the SoCon, you weaken the SoCon, who ranks as a bottom nine conference this season per kenpom.  You also make things more competitive and weirder since you don't have one time gallivanting around dominating everyone with all their fancy three pointers.  Three teams ended up with double digit conference wins this year, and two of them enter the conference tournament with 20+ wins on the season overall.

FAVORITE:  Wofford.  The Terriers have been the best non-Davidson SoCon team over the years, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last five seasons and they're in the drivers seat again this year after going 16-2.  They didn't just beat up on conference foes either, as they picked up nice wins over Iona and North Carolina State in the early season.  If not for a terrible loss to Citadel and maybe one other good win they could have been a bubble team.  Leading scorer Karl Cochran (15ppg) was just named SoCon player of the year, and when the Gophers played Wofford last year I featured him as a great chucker.  He's still taking a silly amount of his team's shots (33%) but his shooting and assist levels have reach a point where I can't really call him a chucker anymore.  Just a volume shooter.

SLEEPER:  Chattanooga.  I don't know if it really counts as a sleeper when a team finished 15-3 and one game back, but outside of Wofford, Nooga, and Mercer the rest of this conference is horrendous.  I like Chattanooga because they can control the paint.  Actually their advanced numbers say they don't really control the paint, but they do have two guys who finished in the top 5 in the conference in rebounding, one of which who finished first in blocked shots with 3.3 per game, so it sure sounds like they could control the paint.  One thing they actually are is battle tested, having played four overtimes this year, going 3-1.  They also finished out on a six game win streak.

THE PICK:  Wofford.  No, they're no Davidson, but they're awfully hard to pick against.  The Terriers were in the top 2 in conference play in nearly every metric, and the only team in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They're the second best shooting team and the hardest team to make baskets against.  Their top competition has serious flaws, and the Terriers have plenty of tournament experience.  Lotta pro-Wofford reasons piling up.


WEST COAST CONFERENCE:
Just like every year in the WCC it comes down to Gonzaga being in, one team being on the bubble (this year it's BYU), and then a whole bunch of spoiler teams out to ruin some other team's day.  This tournament became a lot less important for BYU after they won at Gonzaga last week.  Instead of maybe needing to win it, they probably just need to avoid a bad loss in their opener against either Santa Clara or Loyola Marymount, two teams they swept, and they might still end up ok if they lose that one anyway.  Win that one and then beat St. Mary's?  In, and good, because the Haws/Collinsworth combo rules.

FAVORITE:  Gonzaga.  Everyone always complains that Gonzaga is always overseeded because they don't play anyone, and then usually Gonzaga goes out and gets upset earlier than their seed should dictate.  I could sit here and go through the usual arguments:  tough non-conference schedule, great RPI and kenpom numbers, wins over SMU, Georgia, St. John's, UCLA, Memphis, and BYU with their only losses that BYU one and an overtime loss on the road at Arizona, and they're point to a good if not great team.  But you can make that same argument every year, and every year the same results.  One of these years, Gonzaga is going to have to prove it.

SLEEPER:  Pepperdine.  Not just because Rico Tucker went there, but because of their defense and slow it down tempo could throw a team like Gonzaga off.  It certainly worked against BYU earlier this year, where Pepperdine slowed the game down and shut off the three point line and it worked to the tune of a 67-61 victory.  The only other team to hold BYU under 70 points this season was defensive juggernaut Utah, so that's an impressive feat.  Look at the Waves 10-8 WCC record this year and they swept BYU, split with St. Mary's, and lost by 2 at home and 8 on the road versus Gonzaga.  Their 3-point stifling defense clearly can throw good teams for a loop (#1 in 3pt defense in the country at just 26% allowed) and it could work here, if they can manage to not get upset along the way.

THE PICK:  Gonzaga.  Their nearest contenders, BYU and St. Mary's, have some major flaws, while Gonzaga pretty much appears to be a mostly unstoppable machine (BYU loss notwithstanding), just like every year.  Considering they've won this tournament the last two years, and three of the last four, might as well stick with them.


SUMMIT LEAGUE:
The Summit is a total mess.  First, they have nine teams which is like, come on.  Now it's fine this year because Omaha is still in their transition phase, thus ineligible for the NCAA Tournament thus ineligible for the Summit Tournament.  To add to that, seven of the league's nine teams won between 6 and 12 games.  According to kenpom, however, there is a clear favorite.

FAVORITE:  South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits, well known to most Gopher fans, rank 108th by kenpom, over 50 spots higher than their closest competition (NDSU).  The tournament is played in South Dakota (though in Sioux Falls, where USD is not located).  They have two of kenpom's top 5 players in the conference in Cody Larson and Deondre Parks, who can both do a little bit of everything.  Tops in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play, and by a wide margin, in an average game SDSU would outscore their Summit opponents by 17 points.  Granted that number is skewed by some huge blowouts, but it's still impressive.

SLEEPER:  IP-Fort Wayne.  The Mastodons (for real) have a sweet name and went 9-7 in Summit play, but what makes them interesting is a sleeper is that they have a win over each of the three teams ahead of them.  Plus, Mastodons.

THE PICK:  North Dakota State.  Pretty sure this will come down to SDSU vs. NDSU as god has decried, with both teams raining three balls from the sky as they are inclined to do.  If that happens I'm pretty sure SDSU will win since the Bison can't guard against the three at all.  The reason I'm going with NDSU is I don't like how the bracket sets up for the Jackrabbits.  If South Dakota beats Fort Wayne, and they'll likely be favored by 3 or so and have some kind of home court advantage, they'll get SDSU next.  The same Jackrabbit squad they just beat by 16 in Sioux Falls Vermillion.  Good chance SDSU doesn't even reach the championship.


Outside the conference tournaments there is just a ton of relevant action.  I started to list games but I had like, 5 of the first 10 listed and who has that kind of time?  Just hunker down and watch.

Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed

The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday.  And here it is.  Rankings are from last year.

11/8 vs. LEHIGH  (RPI 107, kenpom 96):  A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late.  The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school.  Nerds and wrestling I think.  Definitely not basketball. 

11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year!  Let's rock and roll!  Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season.  Yes, that is correct.  I'm serious.  No you shut up.

11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83):  The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule.  Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational.  Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment.  Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer. 

11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226):  Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either.  On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza).  I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond.  He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.

11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256):  Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team.  Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.

11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14,  in Maui, kenpom 8):  The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year.  Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije.  He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke.  He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school.  He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times.  As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."

11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui:  Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something.  This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one.  Hope for Cal.

11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I):  Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67).  Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents.  Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result.  Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton.  Not bad, but not great.  Like a night with your mom.

12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124):  Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn.  Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse.  Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace.  Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all.  Don't tell Gardy. 

12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346):  Now things get really, really ugly.  You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up.  They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own).  Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation.  I got news for you though.  Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door. 

12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103):  I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what?  With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again.  Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters?  Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair.  I don't know what he's waiting for.  There is good news, however.  According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year.  So shut it already.

12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321):  I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign.  They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back.  The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha.  Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM.  The college World Series is still in Omaha.  I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln).  I'm just writing random facts now.  I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself.  Here is what I wrote that night.  Gripping.

12/28 vs.  TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309):  Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing?  Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right?  Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins.  I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.


The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300.  The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100.  A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games.  It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."

Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament

Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good.  I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2.  I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.)  I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.

Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:

1)  Florida or Georgetown?  There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure:  Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown.  Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds.  I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense.  Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker.  I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.

2)  What do do with Wisconsin.  I hate this.  I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong.  Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all.  I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps.  So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out.  I'm still rooting against them though.  If you don't it means you hate America.

3)  Who comes out of the West?  In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders.  Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently.  Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it.  That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle.  If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.).  Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes.  The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.

4)  Can Louisville Survive?  I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch.  I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here.  The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there.  Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous.  Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work.  Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3.  So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.

5)  Who upsets Kansas?  I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced?  I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember.  I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas?  And after that their worst loss was to Butler?  The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams.  They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas?  It could happen, kids, it could happen.

6)  How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me.  I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse.  As it turns out, I think they are.  They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship.  Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.

That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.

Gophers vs. Huskers Preview + Wednesday Tournaments

The Gophers play Nebraska in Lincoln, and although some of the pressure has been alleviated by the wins over Indiana and Penn State, which locked the Gophers into the NCAA Tournament, they can still close strong and get maybe as high as a 3 seed, or crash and end up around a 10.  My hope is they get to a six to avoid the 1-2 seed in the second round if they advance, and I think two more wins would do it - whether the last two regular season games or one of them and a B10 tournament win - so this is still a pretty important game.

Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State.  In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.

Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team.  They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team.  You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right?  The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points.  Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic?  I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again.  If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end.  I choose to believe they're back.

Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53

Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.  

ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe.  Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE:  Mercer.  The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team.  The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami.  Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3.  This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch.  Probably. 
SLEEPER:  North Florida.  Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores.  You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game.  His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year.  And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations.  Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK:  Florida Gulf Coast.  The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico.  Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.

PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too.  This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom).   Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300.  Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE:  Bucknell.  Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed.  That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player.  Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER:  Army.  The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers.  That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK:  Bucknell.  If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.

OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State.  The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference.  Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE:  Belmont.  These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever.  Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points.  They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet.  With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER:  Eastern Kentucky.  Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years.  The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins.  Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK:  Belmont.  I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year.  Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.

 


WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way.  There are two possible NCAA teams here:  Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble).  What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga.  However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically.  So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite.  Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE:  Gonzaga.  Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga.  The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom.  Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER:  San Francisco.  It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile.  The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation.  So that's something.  Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK:  St. Mary's.  This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might.  I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet.  If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.

NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC.  They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one.  There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there.  Not so the NEC.  Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE:  Robert Morris.  The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game.  Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season.  Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER:  Bryant.  "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you.  As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I.  Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed).  Cool story, bro.
W's PICK:  Bryant.  It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen.  The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers.  They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes?  It's in play.  Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?

As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large.  Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well.  Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way).  In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road.  Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible.  Interesting team to watch.

Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win -  Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond).  In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines.  Should be fun night.  I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.

What did we Learn from the Marathon?

Unfortunately I couldn't make it to the Gophers latest butt whooping of Toledo but that doesn't stop me from having a couple of quick thoughts on the team and yes it feels a bit weird to have concerns about a team that's 2-0 with wins by 36 and 26 but here we are.  I have 3.

1.  I want to know what's going on with Trevor Mbakwe.  His line looked better in this Toledo game (6 pts - 7 boards - 2 blks) but he still only played 14 minutes which is the same number of minutes he played in the game against American.  Is he still hurt?  Is this some sort of punishment?  I'd really like to know.

2.  Nineteen turnovers against Toledo?  Gross.  Loyola-Illinois, who is terrible, turned it over just 15 times against Toledo.

3.  Is Andre Hollins ok?  Maybe all the expectations are getting to him and he's pressing a bit (2-15 shooting so far, 4 TOs vs. 1 assist vs. Toledo) or maybe he's got something else going on in his head that's hurting his concentration (the shooting, plus five missed free throws already this year vs. just nine all of last season).

 It's early and the team is winning, but all three of these need to get figured out before they start playing real games or they're going to be in trouble.  This Thursday's game against Tennessee State is a losable game, so they may as well start playing better ASAP.  The defense and rebounding have been absolutely outstanding, however, and that's a very good sign even against this level of competition.  Small sample size and all, but kenpom rates the Gophers as the 8th best defensive team in the country statistically (includes rebounding) and that does take quality of competition into account (for example, American shot 24% against the Gophers and 53% in their next game against Quinnipiac - that bodes well for the Gophers). 

Also, in case you were unaware somehow, ESPN just did a 24-hour college basketball marathon.  Thanks to a flexible work environment that allows working from home and the miracle of internet access I was able to take in a decent amount of it.  Here's what I thought was worth noting.

1.  I watched the first half of Youngstown/Georgia (not part of the marathon) and figured Georgia's first half performance (3-24 shooting) would be the ugliest thing I saw all week, but I was wrong because West Virginia looked absolutely god awful in getting destroyed by Gonzaga.  The Bulldogs also looked pretty good and definitely had something to do with it, but WVU just got destroyed on every level.  Gonzaga had open shot after open shot (52% Shooting, 56% from 3) while WVU just threw up bricks (shot 27%, 11% from 3) and I saw at least two times in the first half where a Mountaineer 3-point attempt hit the backboard before it hit the rim.  I'm sure WVU will end up being not this terrible since they're relying on three transfers to pretty much carry the team this year and that always seems to take a while to gel, but that was one of the ugliest performances I can remember watching from a team that was supposed to at least be in the mix for an at-large bid since every Gopher game ever.

2. Kendall Williams (New Mexico) is a stud PG.  I didn't stay up late enough to watch this one after WVU put me to sleep, but Williams put up a line of 17 pts - 6 rebs - 7 assists - 0 turnovers.  Nice. 

3.  The Gophers could have used Siyani Chambers.  The freshman point guard from Hopkins ended up at Harvard because that was basically the only school that recruited him and oh my did he look good against UMass, nearly leading the Crimson to a big upset playing all 40 minutes and finishing with 14 pts, 5 rebs, and 7 assists to just 1 turnover and even more impressive than the stats was just watching him.  He completely controlled the game when Harvard had the ball (his defense, on the other hand, was pretty atrocious).  It got to the point where UMass won the game by doing everything possible to keep the ball out of his hands when they ran their press and then the Harvard dopes turned it over twice in the final minute leading to a pretty surprising comeback win for the Minutemen when it looked like this game was in the bag for Harvard.  Anyway, this kids poise and ability to run an offense was shocking considering it was just his second game ever.  I know we think we're in good shape with Andre Hollins, but I gotta say this looks like a whiff for Tubby (assuming he figures out  the defense thing).

4. The Horizon race should be pretty good this year.  Valpo killed Northern Illinois (not like that's hard) and Detroit was giving it to St. John's pretty good before they fell apart.  I could see either team winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.  Of course seeing as how those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference it probably means we can expect Cleveland State or something to get the auto-bid.

5.  I thought this might be the worst version of Xavier we've seen in a very long time.  Turns out it looks like this might be the worst version of Butler we've seen in a long time.  I'm interested to see how this turns out with Brad Stevens if Butler bombs again.  I realize he's built up all kinds of leeway with the back-to-back Finals runs, but the last couple of years have been really bad (if I'm right about this year) and if Butler doesn't get back to the tournament soon he's going to go from being known as a wunderkind to just another guy at a small school.  He's already been replaced by Shaka Smart as the small school program builder who doesn't bolt du juor and with Tim Miles and John Groce (among others) taking advantage of March runs to move up in the world I wonder if Stevens has already blown his chance.  Considering he was born in Indiana and never left he might not even care, which is good because soon he might not have a choice.

6. Michigan State and Kansas are going to be just fine.  Not that there was ever much doubt, but both teams lost significant, and I mean significant, players from last season so there was part of me that wondered if they'd struggle but both looked very good in Michigan State's 67-64 victory.  Both teams were a little sloppy (31 combined turnovers) but both offenses look to be almost in prime shape already.  Keith Appling was sick (19 points and an insane lay-up to put MSU up 3 with 15 secs left) and Gary Harris joined him in the back court (18 points) to make the Spartans look like they might actually have the best guards in the Big 10 and Branden Dawson looks like he's all the way back from a knee injury.  For Kansas it's much the same story with Ben McLemore and Elijah Johnson looking like they can step right in and be a very, very good pair of guards.  What an awesome game this was.  Although that final Kansas play looked very Tubby Smith-errific.

7.  I have no idea how VCU got beaten by Wichita.  VCU has their entire team back.  Wichita has nobody back.  I thought Wichita would finally fade away, but apparently they just re-load.  Must be sweet.

8.  Alex Poythress is ridiculous.  I have no idea why I didn't know how athletic this guy is but I'd put him up there with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist last year.  It's probably because his name sounds pretty nerdy.  Honestly I couldn't even have told you if he was white or black before tonight because I didn't know anything about him, I just thought he sounded kind of like a nerd.  He's not.  He just dunks on Duke nerds' heads.  He's like a taller Rico Tucker.

Realistically looking at the year prior (Championship) and the year after (have you seen that recruiting class?) this is the worst team of that three year span for Kentucky and it's not really even close, and yet I'd be shocked if they aren't in the Final Four this year again.  Betwixt Calipari's ability to recruit the one-and-done type talent and the mystique and allure (good stripper names, fyi) of Kentucky that place is set up to be the closest thing to a dynasty since UCLA in the 60s or 70s or whatever.  Maybe both.  Effing Kareem.

9.  The other day I went my whole family went to Joe's Crab Shack to celebrate my birthday and there was this dude at the table next to us who ate his corn on the cob with a fork.  And I don't mean like that he cut the kernels off with a knife and then ate them like niblets, I mean he straight up just used his fork to scoop it right off the cob.  I wasn't sure if it was impressive or not but then Snacks got his dainty thing on and was like "I hate corn on the cob because I don't like getting it in my teeth and stuff" and he tried it and couldn't do it.  So basically this dude had a lifetime of experience of scooping corn kernels off the cob with a knife.  He was like MacGyver crossed with Mr. Pitt.  I didn't know if I should laugh or be impressed, but I certainly made sure to have everyone look.  Changed my life.

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #18-#12

I wasn't able to go to the Gopher game tonight, so instead here are a few more NCAA Hoop Previews (we're almost done!).  But first, a quick check on the Big 10 teams and how they've done in the exhibitions that have been played so far.

Illinois 79-47 over Lewis and 75-66 over West Chester.   The Illini had 21 turnovers vs. just 7 assists against West Chester.  Safe to say their issues with ball-handling haven't been resolved just yet.

Indiana 86-57 over Wesleyan.  Maurice Creek led the Hoosiers in scoring with 12.  I would have sworn that dude had graduated already.

Iowa 100-54 over Quincy.  Hawks forced 31 turnovers in this game, and based on possessions in the game it looks like Iowa might be converted over to a run-and-gun, press the whole game type of team.  Tom Davis would be proud.

Michigan 83-47 over Northern Michigan.  Trey Burke was suspended for this one which clearly didn't matter.  Two of the three vaunted freshmen hit double figures.  Tim Hardaway had 5 assists and zero turnovers.  Luckily he still shoots like shit.

Michigan State 85-47 over Northwood and 62-49 over St. Cloud State.  Derrick Nix looking like he's come to play this year with a 13 & 8 and 14 & 7 in these two.  Then again, I doubt teams of that caliber have anyone who can handle someone as wide as Nix in the paint.

Nebraska:  yet to play.  They can't even figure out scheduling properly.

Northwestern:  yet to play.  You'll never make the NCAA Tournament this way.

Ohio State 83-71 over Walsh.  DeShaun Thomas scored 25 and got up 17 shots with nobody else on OSU putting up more than 9.  The man is just a scoring machine.  Breathtaking.

Penn State 79-54 over Philadelphia.  D.J. Newbill, a transfer from Southern Miss, scored 15 them and Tim Frazier scored 17 with 8 assists.  Frazier is insane.  How he can put up the kind of numbers he did last year with no help is baffling.

Purdue 70-61 over Montevallo and 109-68 over Newberry.  They have three guys named Johnson (Ronnie, Terone, and Anthony) who were the three leading scorers against Montevallo.  That's hilarious.

Wisconsin:  yet to play.  Slackers.

Anyway, on with it.  And don't forget to check out the post directly below this one for TRE's Western Conference Preview which I totally just stepped all over.

18.  Creighton Blue Jays.  You're going to hear a sickening amount about Creighton this year, and not without reason, but you know how much ESPN loves their little teams that could and Creighton is the top qualifier this year (since Gonzaga and Memphis have done it so long and no longer qualify - well maybe Gonzaga).   This is a team that beat Alabama in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season and has nine of its top ten guys back including Doug McDermott who is somehow a National Player of the Year candidate.  The guy they lose is a big one in Antoine Young who has been their PG for three years, but he didn't even lead the team in assists last year so they'll probably be ok.  The real problem is that schedule.  They have a couple of so-so teams on there (North Texas, Cal, St. Joe's) but the only real team is Wisconsin and they just lost their PG for the season.  So it's very likely they will enter the MVC schedule undefeated and should run through there with only 1-2 losses.  Can you hear the media coverage already?  Can't you already hear Dickie V screaming about McDermott and Creighton?  Ugh.  I'm sick of it already and it hasn't even started yet.

17.  Kansas Jayhawks.  These guys rank 7th in both polls so I might be underrating them, but losing both Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson is huge - that's 34 points, 14 boards, and 7 assists just gone.  Then again, the year prior they lost the Morris twins and made the Championship Game, and the year before that they lost Sherron Collins (what happened to that guy?), Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry and still made the elite 8.  So I guess, what, Kansas is kind of a basketball factory?  Man, why am I always the last to know?  You know they're going to be involved on some level because you know they're always going to play defense, and even more fun is that big dopey surfer dude, Jeff Withey, is back with his 3.6 blocks per game from last year.  Man I love shotblockers.  Remember Antoine Broxsie?  God was I excited when he transferred to the Gophers.  Whiffed on that one.  He's the starting PF on my all-disappointing Gopher team (PG: Adam Boone, SG: Rico Tucker, SF: Rick Rickert , PF Broxsie, C Ralph Sampson, and Voshon Lenard's senior year should be on here somewhere too)

16.  Arizona Wildcats.  Arizona looks to be back, finally, and I for one am happy about it.  To have the alma mater of Sean Elliott and Sean Rooks be a giant suckhole was not good for my brain, man, but they're back.  A monster recruiting class (ranked #3 in the country by ESPN with four dudes in their top 100), a big-time transfer (Mark Lyons from Xavier who averaged 15 points and 3 assists per game last year and is immediately eligible thanks to that post-graduate rule that everyone who has ever used has been doing in order to further their academic career), and a couple of studs in waiting back will have Arizona back in the NCAA Tournament after their streak of I don't know like 25 years in a row or something ended last season.  FUN FACT:  Lyons was recruited to Xavier by then head coach Sean Miller.  Sean Miller is now Arizona's coach.  Good thing Arizona offered a post-grad degree Lyons was after that Xavier didn't.  What a happy coincidence. 

15.  Gonzaga Bulldogs.  I've come way around on the Bulldogs.  When they started winning a bunch of games I initially hated them the same way I currently hate Davidson - an annoying little brother winning a few too many games after hitting a lucky streak that the national media wants to make out with at all times - but now I've decided I'm a big fan.  You can't have this run of success by accident, and it's impressive how they've managed to keep it going and, stop me if you've heard this before, this season might be their best.  As per usual they're loaded in the back court with Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, and these guys are just sophomores so you can expect them to be good for at least another few seasons, and Elias Harris is back and was good again last year so there's no reason to think he won't jump up another level in his final college year.  The key to this team's success may end up being center Sam Dower, a junior from Osseo (yes, Osseo, MN) who apparently the Gophers didn't need.  He's had a couple of nice seasons as a back-up and with Robert Sacre gone he's primed for a breakout year.  Gonzaga highlights on SportsCenter are literally going to kill me this year.  Yes, I said literally.

14.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Normally a team starting two freshmen and two guys coming back off knee surgery would be cause for concern, but you know the deal once you start getting to this caliber of team - these aren't exactly mediocre talents.  James McAdoo, who for some reason is always called James Michael McAdoo which I am not going to do because it's annoying, could have been a Top 10 NBA pick last season if he had left despite playing just 15 minutes per game with UNC because apparently nobody remembers Marvin Williams, but he chose to stay and is immediately one of the favorites for ACC Player of the Year.  Seriously these guys will be fine.  The back-ups who played 10 minutes per game last year were all like, Top 50 recruits who were just biding their time, and they bring in the 8th ranked recruiting class which included stealing two guys (Marcus Paige from Iowa, J.P. Tokoto from Wisconsin) out of the midwest so seriously F these guys.  The only reason not to completely hate Carolina is because at least they aren't Duke.

13.  Memphis Tigers.  Guess which team hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game the last three years (no not the Gophers I mean a team that's supposed to win those games)?  Well obviously it's Memphis otherwise why would I bring it up?  That will have to change if Sam Weir look-a-like Josh Pastner wants to stay comfortable as Memphis jumps to the Big East next season, because this Memphis team is finally loaded the way those all Caliparian teams were.  They've got a very talented back court including former McDonald's All-American Shoeless Joe Jackson, Adonis Thomas (another former McD's AA who was hurt the majority of last season) is also back and healthy, and in the paint they grabbed another McD's AA in Shaq Thomas.  So yeah, I'd say Pastner's recruiting has finally caught up to what Calipari was doing when he was at Memphis.  Expect sanctions any day.

12.  Baylor Bears.  It's pretty incredible that Baylor can lose Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller all to the NBA and still have a shot at being a top 10 team this year, but Baylor has turned into a pretty incredible program.  Pierre Jackson is back to run the show after being named Honorable Mention All-American last season and was tabbed as the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, and his back court mate Brady Heslip is back as well to knock down a billion threes.  Add in Deuce Bello, A.J. Walton, and Gary Franklin and it's safe to say there are no questions about Baylor's guard play.  Losing the entire front court could hurt, but Baylor could easily go three guards and there's plenty of incoming talent as well.  Particularly Isaiah Austin who is the best incoming center in the country and a top-5 overall recruit - the kind of guy lesser schools would call a "program changer" but just business as usual at Baylor.  Plus J'mison Morgan is somehow still around.  I swear that dude is older than Mbakwe.


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Team #19 (GOPHERS)