Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good. I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2. I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.) I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.
Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:
1) Florida or Georgetown? There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure: Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown. Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds. I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense. Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker. I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.
2) What do do with Wisconsin. I hate this. I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong. Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all. I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps. So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out. I'm still rooting against them though. If you don't it means you hate America.
3) Who comes out of the West? In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders. Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently. Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it. That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle. If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.). Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes. The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.
4) Can Louisville Survive? I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch. I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here. The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there. Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous. Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work. Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3. So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.
5) Who upsets Kansas? I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced? I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember. I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas? And after that their worst loss was to Butler? The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams. They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas? It could happen, kids, it could happen.
6) How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me. I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse. As it turns out, I think they are. They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship. Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.
That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.
Showing posts with label Ole Miss. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ole Miss. Show all posts
Monday, March 18, 2013
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - SEC
While the Pac-10 has been down and gotten most of the press/talk about being the worst major conference in college ball lately, the SEC hasn't been far behind. It's less notable because of Kentucky and Florida's success, but some of the traditional power teams have been way down, specifically LSU and Arkansas.
Things seem to be looking up however, with Vanderbilt looking very strong (they'd probably be ranked first in any other conference outside this and the ACC), Alabama looking strong, and LSU looking to be improved this year. Also I'm really just writing this to push the pictures down so they aren't "above the fold" because somebody once requested I do that because otherwise they pull up my blog at work and BAM hot chick right in front. So that's why I'm still typing.
1. KENTUCKY WILDCATS. If you're sick of John Calipari and Kentucky, this isn't the year for you because this might be slimey Cal's best team ever. He got a break with Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb opting to stay in school and brings in the #1 recruiting class in the country and maybe the best of his career with PF Anthony Davis (#2), SF Mike Gilchrist (#3), PG Marquis Teague (#5), and PF Kyle Wiltjer (#22). Just those six together with filler would be a top 10 team, but Kentucky still has . Is this the year Calipari finally puts it all together and walks away with the National Title? Good god, I hope not. That slime ball and Kentucky hoops in general can go to hell.
2. VANDERBILT COMMODORES. Vandy has a big chance to be really, really good this year. Unfortunately they were really, really good last year too and still got bounced by Richmond in the first round - not unlike the previous year when they got bounced in the first by Murray State. If they're going to make a run anytime soon this is the year to do it - they've got all five starters back and nine of their top ten scorers. John Jenkins might be the best shooter in the league and has surpassed Jeffrey Taylor as the best player on this team - and Taylor still has a shot to be All-SEC First Team. Their point guard led the SEC in assists, which makes sense giving those two guys he's dishing to, and they have a couple very solid post men including the sweet named Festus Ezeli. They also bring in a good class highlighted by Dai-Jon Parker, one of the best recruits in Vandy history. Seriously, they're loaded. If they can't make a run with this group they might as well disband the hoops program and become the full-time nerd school they're destined to become.
3. FLORIDA GATORS. The good news is that the Gators are absolutely loaded at guard, and you need guards to win. They return Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, who were their top 2 scorers last year and add Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario, who led his team in scoring 2 years ago and was a big time recruit as a freshman, and freshman Bradley Beal, the #4 recruit in the nation. So yeah, they're set in the back court. The front court, however, is a big question mark because all three starters are gone. Patric Young is still here, and he was a highly regarded center a year ago and played well as a back-up last season. If they can figure out what to do with their big men or make a 3/4 guard offense work they are going to be a very, very dangerous team in March.
4. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE. Essentially the inverse of Florida, the Tide are loaded in the paint but
have serious question marks on the perimeter. JaMychal Green might be the best interior player in the conference, and he returns as the #2 returning scorer among perimeter players and the #2 returning rebounder in the conference (both behind UK's Terrence Jones), and the man who'll be starting right next to him, Tony Mitchell, is #3 and #4. On the perimeter there's talent, if not experience. Travis Releford, the team's third leading scorer last year, is back and a couple of newcomers are top 30 recruits in Trevor Lacey and Levi Randolph. Actually, now that I'm writing this I want to swap Bama and Florida here, but then my first sentence doesn't make any sense and I'd have to redo the whole thing.
5. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS. The Bulldogs will go as far as Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost's heads will take them. Neither was the team's leading scorer last year (that was Ravern Johnson who is gone) but it's hard to argue they aren't the two most talented players. Of course, Sidney is overweight, disappears and floats through games at times, and got in a well-publicized fight with a teammate last season, not to mention the mess of trouble he went through with the NCAA. Bost missed the first 14 games last year after not withdrawing from the NBA draft in time and not keeping his academics in order. All the NCAA trouble should be behind them, but Sidney is the type of guy who could score 30 and grab 15 boards in a game or just as easily score in single-figures and grab just a couple boards. Not to mention that he gives the impression he's a bit of a ticking time bomb who could do something that would get him suspended again. Awfully fun to watch though.
6. LSU TIGERS. It hasn't really felt right the last two season's with LSU at the bottom of the SEC, but things should be looking up this year. Their top four scorers are back and they add in their first McDonald's All-American since 2005 in Johnny O'Bryant, a center who Rivals ranks as the 4th best at his position amongst all freshmen (#46 overall). And what a nice coincidence, center is exactly what LSU needed most. The perimeter is manned by sophomores Andre Stringer and Ralston Turner who were both top 150 recruits last year and both had successful first seasons, with Storm Warren (team's best rebounder) and Iowa State transfer Justin Hamilton joining O'Bryant on the inside (I didn't know players actually transferred OUT of Ames). LSU won't be a great team and likely won't challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid, but they'll at least get themselves out of the cellar and moving in the right direction.
7. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS. Despite bringing in what Rivals ranks as the #11 class in the country, John Pelphrey was fired after another subpar season by Arkansas. Luckily new coach Mike Anderson was able to hold on to the class, and that's doubly good because leading scorer, noted sharpshooter, and horribly named Rotnei Clarke (who is white, fyi) transferred after the switch and third-leading scorer and leading rebounder Delvon Johnson has graduated. It's basically going to be Marshawn Powell with a whole bunch of unproven guys, both older and the newcomers. The two new guards (B.J. Young and Ky Madden) can both play either guard spot and were both top 30 type recruits, so they should thrive under Anderson. Should be fun to watch, either way.
8. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS. I don't really like living in a world where Tennessee isn't a top tier SEC basketball team, but after Bruce Pearl tried to single-handedly destroy the program that looks like where we sit with five of the team's top six scorers from last year gone and one of their top recruits opted out and signed on with Louisville instead. The lone big-time returner is guard Cameron Tatum who has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career, averaging around 7.5 points per game. He's always been a 3rd or 4th option, but will have a chance to be the man this year. There's plenty of other talent (why wouldn't there be since Pearl was a cheater) if not experience, with freshmen PG Chris Jones and SG Josh Richardson, sophomore SGs Jordan McRae and Trae Golden, junior center Kenny Hall and SF Jeronne Maymon, and senior PF Renaldo Woolridge all former top 100 recruits. So really, these guys could finish anywhere from 4th to 12th and it wouldn't be a surprise. With a good new coach in Cuonzo Martin I'm guessing they'll be ok.
9. OLE MISS REBELS. The last four years had to be a bit disappointing for the Rebels (assuming anybody there cares about something besides football) because they had Chris Warren (not the RB) one of the best players in Ole Miss history and all they could muster was a couple of NIT Final Fours without a single NCAA berth. Now Warren is gone along with his back court mate Zach Graham and they're combined 34 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game with them. As you can imagine, this leaves a fairly gaping hole. The good news is that Jelan Kendrick, formerly of the Memphis Tigers and was ranked the #15 best recruit in the country in 2010, is on board and becomes eligible after the first semester - he will immediately become Ole Miss's best player. Assuming he manages to stay on the team (read this for a quick synopsis of this dude's mental issues) he and fellow NBA prospect Terrance Henry should at least keep Ole Miss competitive.
10. AUBURN TIGERS. Auburn was completely awful last season with losses to teams like Presbyterian, Asheville, Samford, Jacksonville, and Campbell and their leading scorer and rebounder from last season transferred to Missouri, but there isn't a complete lack of hope for the Tigers. Kenny Gabriel is a double-figure scorer who is back, point guard Frankie Sullivan is returning from a season ending knee injury last year, while a couple of transfers (Varez Ward from Texas and Noel Johnson from Clemson) will likely immediately jump into the starting lineup. They also add 6-10 center Willy Kouassi, the #66 freshman in the country and SG Cedrick McAfee (#145), so although they won't be in contention for an NCAA bid any time soon, at least there's a little bit of reason for hope.
11. GEORGIA BULLDOGS. No team was hit harder by early NBA entries than Georgia with Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie taking off. All those two were responsible for last season was 45% of the team's points, 44% of their rebounds, 30% of their assists, 38% of their steals, and 46% of their blocks, and took 42% of the team's shots. So yes, there are some big shoes to fill here. They do have 3rd leading scorer and starting PG Gerald Robinson back, so that will help, and stud recruit Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (#12 overall) will probably immediately start next to him, but besides Thompkins in the paint they also have to try to replace their top 2 other post men, and there's just nobody here to do it.
12. SOUTH CAROLINA GAME COCKS. So this team won 5 SEC games last year. Their best player, Bruce Ellington, decided to play football and, although he is supposed to rejoin the team it won't happen until after football season and South Carolina is probably heading to a bowl. Their second best player graduated, and their third best player decided to transfer to LaSalle who is terrible. I'd say things are not looking super great. You know how it seems like the Cocks either beat or put a scare into somebody good at home every year? Yeah, don't expect that this year. As the Gin Blossoms once said, "Don't expect too much from me and you might not be let down."
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12
Things seem to be looking up however, with Vanderbilt looking very strong (they'd probably be ranked first in any other conference outside this and the ACC), Alabama looking strong, and LSU looking to be improved this year. Also I'm really just writing this to push the pictures down so they aren't "above the fold" because somebody once requested I do that because otherwise they pull up my blog at work and BAM hot chick right in front. So that's why I'm still typing.
1. KENTUCKY WILDCATS. If you're sick of John Calipari and Kentucky, this isn't the year for you because this might be slimey Cal's best team ever. He got a break with Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb opting to stay in school and brings in the #1 recruiting class in the country and maybe the best of his career with PF Anthony Davis (#2), SF Mike Gilchrist (#3), PG Marquis Teague (#5), and PF Kyle Wiltjer (#22). Just those six together with filler would be a top 10 team, but Kentucky still has . Is this the year Calipari finally puts it all together and walks away with the National Title? Good god, I hope not. That slime ball and Kentucky hoops in general can go to hell.
2. VANDERBILT COMMODORES. Vandy has a big chance to be really, really good this year. Unfortunately they were really, really good last year too and still got bounced by Richmond in the first round - not unlike the previous year when they got bounced in the first by Murray State. If they're going to make a run anytime soon this is the year to do it - they've got all five starters back and nine of their top ten scorers. John Jenkins might be the best shooter in the league and has surpassed Jeffrey Taylor as the best player on this team - and Taylor still has a shot to be All-SEC First Team. Their point guard led the SEC in assists, which makes sense giving those two guys he's dishing to, and they have a couple very solid post men including the sweet named Festus Ezeli. They also bring in a good class highlighted by Dai-Jon Parker, one of the best recruits in Vandy history. Seriously, they're loaded. If they can't make a run with this group they might as well disband the hoops program and become the full-time nerd school they're destined to become.
3. FLORIDA GATORS. The good news is that the Gators are absolutely loaded at guard, and you need guards to win. They return Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, who were their top 2 scorers last year and add Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario, who led his team in scoring 2 years ago and was a big time recruit as a freshman, and freshman Bradley Beal, the #4 recruit in the nation. So yeah, they're set in the back court. The front court, however, is a big question mark because all three starters are gone. Patric Young is still here, and he was a highly regarded center a year ago and played well as a back-up last season. If they can figure out what to do with their big men or make a 3/4 guard offense work they are going to be a very, very dangerous team in March.
4. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE. Essentially the inverse of Florida, the Tide are loaded in the paint but
have serious question marks on the perimeter. JaMychal Green might be the best interior player in the conference, and he returns as the #2 returning scorer among perimeter players and the #2 returning rebounder in the conference (both behind UK's Terrence Jones), and the man who'll be starting right next to him, Tony Mitchell, is #3 and #4. On the perimeter there's talent, if not experience. Travis Releford, the team's third leading scorer last year, is back and a couple of newcomers are top 30 recruits in Trevor Lacey and Levi Randolph. Actually, now that I'm writing this I want to swap Bama and Florida here, but then my first sentence doesn't make any sense and I'd have to redo the whole thing.
5. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS. The Bulldogs will go as far as Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost's heads will take them. Neither was the team's leading scorer last year (that was Ravern Johnson who is gone) but it's hard to argue they aren't the two most talented players. Of course, Sidney is overweight, disappears and floats through games at times, and got in a well-publicized fight with a teammate last season, not to mention the mess of trouble he went through with the NCAA. Bost missed the first 14 games last year after not withdrawing from the NBA draft in time and not keeping his academics in order. All the NCAA trouble should be behind them, but Sidney is the type of guy who could score 30 and grab 15 boards in a game or just as easily score in single-figures and grab just a couple boards. Not to mention that he gives the impression he's a bit of a ticking time bomb who could do something that would get him suspended again. Awfully fun to watch though.
6. LSU TIGERS. It hasn't really felt right the last two season's with LSU at the bottom of the SEC, but things should be looking up this year. Their top four scorers are back and they add in their first McDonald's All-American since 2005 in Johnny O'Bryant, a center who Rivals ranks as the 4th best at his position amongst all freshmen (#46 overall). And what a nice coincidence, center is exactly what LSU needed most. The perimeter is manned by sophomores Andre Stringer and Ralston Turner who were both top 150 recruits last year and both had successful first seasons, with Storm Warren (team's best rebounder) and Iowa State transfer Justin Hamilton joining O'Bryant on the inside (I didn't know players actually transferred OUT of Ames). LSU won't be a great team and likely won't challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid, but they'll at least get themselves out of the cellar and moving in the right direction.
7. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS. Despite bringing in what Rivals ranks as the #11 class in the country, John Pelphrey was fired after another subpar season by Arkansas. Luckily new coach Mike Anderson was able to hold on to the class, and that's doubly good because leading scorer, noted sharpshooter, and horribly named Rotnei Clarke (who is white, fyi) transferred after the switch and third-leading scorer and leading rebounder Delvon Johnson has graduated. It's basically going to be Marshawn Powell with a whole bunch of unproven guys, both older and the newcomers. The two new guards (B.J. Young and Ky Madden) can both play either guard spot and were both top 30 type recruits, so they should thrive under Anderson. Should be fun to watch, either way.
8. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS. I don't really like living in a world where Tennessee isn't a top tier SEC basketball team, but after Bruce Pearl tried to single-handedly destroy the program that looks like where we sit with five of the team's top six scorers from last year gone and one of their top recruits opted out and signed on with Louisville instead. The lone big-time returner is guard Cameron Tatum who has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career, averaging around 7.5 points per game. He's always been a 3rd or 4th option, but will have a chance to be the man this year. There's plenty of other talent (why wouldn't there be since Pearl was a cheater) if not experience, with freshmen PG Chris Jones and SG Josh Richardson, sophomore SGs Jordan McRae and Trae Golden, junior center Kenny Hall and SF Jeronne Maymon, and senior PF Renaldo Woolridge all former top 100 recruits. So really, these guys could finish anywhere from 4th to 12th and it wouldn't be a surprise. With a good new coach in Cuonzo Martin I'm guessing they'll be ok.
9. OLE MISS REBELS. The last four years had to be a bit disappointing for the Rebels (assuming anybody there cares about something besides football) because they had Chris Warren (not the RB) one of the best players in Ole Miss history and all they could muster was a couple of NIT Final Fours without a single NCAA berth. Now Warren is gone along with his back court mate Zach Graham and they're combined 34 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game with them. As you can imagine, this leaves a fairly gaping hole. The good news is that Jelan Kendrick, formerly of the Memphis Tigers and was ranked the #15 best recruit in the country in 2010, is on board and becomes eligible after the first semester - he will immediately become Ole Miss's best player. Assuming he manages to stay on the team (read this for a quick synopsis of this dude's mental issues) he and fellow NBA prospect Terrance Henry should at least keep Ole Miss competitive.
10. AUBURN TIGERS. Auburn was completely awful last season with losses to teams like Presbyterian, Asheville, Samford, Jacksonville, and Campbell and their leading scorer and rebounder from last season transferred to Missouri, but there isn't a complete lack of hope for the Tigers. Kenny Gabriel is a double-figure scorer who is back, point guard Frankie Sullivan is returning from a season ending knee injury last year, while a couple of transfers (Varez Ward from Texas and Noel Johnson from Clemson) will likely immediately jump into the starting lineup. They also add 6-10 center Willy Kouassi, the #66 freshman in the country and SG Cedrick McAfee (#145), so although they won't be in contention for an NCAA bid any time soon, at least there's a little bit of reason for hope.
11. GEORGIA BULLDOGS. No team was hit harder by early NBA entries than Georgia with Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie taking off. All those two were responsible for last season was 45% of the team's points, 44% of their rebounds, 30% of their assists, 38% of their steals, and 46% of their blocks, and took 42% of the team's shots. So yes, there are some big shoes to fill here. They do have 3rd leading scorer and starting PG Gerald Robinson back, so that will help, and stud recruit Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (#12 overall) will probably immediately start next to him, but besides Thompkins in the paint they also have to try to replace their top 2 other post men, and there's just nobody here to do it.
12. SOUTH CAROLINA GAME COCKS. So this team won 5 SEC games last year. Their best player, Bruce Ellington, decided to play football and, although he is supposed to rejoin the team it won't happen until after football season and South Carolina is probably heading to a bowl. Their second best player graduated, and their third best player decided to transfer to LaSalle who is terrible. I'd say things are not looking super great. You know how it seems like the Cocks either beat or put a scare into somebody good at home every year? Yeah, don't expect that this year. As the Gin Blossoms once said, "Don't expect too much from me and you might not be let down."
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
SEC College Basketball 2010 Preview
There are good looking women in the SEC.
SEC EAST
1. Florida Gators. I'm not a huge fan of their guards, because I think both Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton can get a little too out of control and both have a tendency to shoot shots that they shan't be shooting, but there is not denying their talent and the Gators have a stellar front court. Chandler Parsons is a Mike Miller clone sans the bad hair and with a slightly worse jump shot (and he single-handedly won me my fantasy college hoops league last year) and Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin are very good as long as you don't count free throws. In a down year for the SEC, the Gators are clearly the class of either division.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. In what I'm going to assume is about to become a tradition until Calipari is arrested for money laundering, Kentucky lost an assload of good players to the NBA but is reloading with an assload of talent. It's almost a perfect job of recruiting, actually, because these guys are not only talented but cover all five positions: You have PG Brandon Knight (Rivals #6 overall), SG Doron Lamb (#21), SF Stacey Poole (#33), PF Terrence Jones (#13), and C Enes Kanter (#3 overall). Of course, the biggest question is if Kanter will end up eligible, because they aren't particularly strong on the interior without him, but this year will be plenty athletic and is near-perfectly built for the dribble-drive offense Calipari loves. I'd consider this #2 prediction their downside. Well, the actual downside was it turns out Cal has been cheating (NO WAY) and they kick everybody off the team or something. That would probably be worse.
3. Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia may very well be on their way back to relevance, believe it or not. Travis Leslie is an absolute stud, and what Rodney Williams should aspire to become, and they have the league's leading returning scorer and rebounder in power forward Trey Thompkins. These guys should be two of the best players in the conference, but what makes this team really interesting are a couple of newcomers: freshman forward Marcus Thornton and point guard transfer from Tennessee State Gerald Robinson. Thornton could be a great one, with both size and athleticism, and Robinson is the kind of scoring point guard (averaged 15 and 18 points per game in his two years at TSU) who can end up making or breaking a team. I consider these guys a solid sleeper this year.
4. Tennessee Volunteers. I don't exactly know how Bruce Pearl being a huge cheater is going to affect this team, but they're a bit of an enigma already so this doesn't help with the rubix cube here. I've seen them ranked anywhere from 2nd to 4th in various previews, and with three major contributors and starters gone (four if you want to count Tyler Smith) the second place predictions seems awfully optimistic to me. I guess it really depends on how good you think freshman point guard Tobias Harris can be (Rivals #7), and how much of an improvement Cameron Tatum and/or Scottie Hopson can make. I think those three will be pretty studly, but they're all perimeter guys and the Vols are going to be weak on the interior. Plus I wouldn't surprised if Pearl is dismissed/suspended/whatever and this whole thing collapses.
5. Vanderbilt Commodores. If Northwestern is the nerds of midwest, and Stanford is the nerds of the west coast, then Vanderbilt is the nerds of the southeast. And for nerds, they've had a pretty good run of success lately, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years with a sweet16 appearance thrown in. This looking like it's going to be a down year, however, with two double-digit scorers (center A.J. Ogilvy and point guard Jermaine Beal) lost to graduation, but they've built the kind of program at this point where they'll be back soon enough. Sophomore Jeffery Taylor is one of the most athletically gifted players in the conference and should blossom with an increased role on offense, and classmate John Jenkins is a three-point marksman who hit nearly 50% of his threes last year on his way to averaging double-digit points per game. And they're probably all really smart, too. NERDS!!!
6. South Carolina Gamecocks. Remember Devan Downey? He and his 22 points per game have graduated. Along with Dominique Archie (who only played five games last year due to injury) and his 14.4 ppg, Mike Holmes (who only played in seven before being kicked off the team) and his 9.4, and Brandin Raley-Ross and his 10.6. So yes, they're losing a lot. They still have a decent enough inside/outside combo in Ramon Galloway and Sam Muldrow, but let's just say if they were an NBA Jam combo they'd never get picked outside of South Carolina. Coach Darrin Horn loves to play an uptempo style, but with just Galloway and Lakeem Jackson back with significant back court experience, he'll be relying on newcomers and although it's a good class, that's not generally a sign of success. This isn't Kentucky.
SEC WEST
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs. It sucks that Jarvis Varnado graduated, because that guy was as fun to watch as anybody so pardon me if I'm weeping like a fat girl at a prom with no cake while I type this, but the Bulldogs have enough coming back to win their division and make the tournament, mostly because the defied the odds and went 2-0 against the NCAA fascists this offseason. Dee Bost, last year's #3 scorer at 13.2 ppg, declared for the NBA draft, then pulled his name out after the deadline, and instead of following it's own rules they are letting him back to play another year after sitting out the first handful of games. He'll be joined on the suspended bench to start the year by PF Renardo Sidney, last year's #16 ranked freshman by Rivals who sat out of all of last season during an NCAA investigation into something or other, but he'll be playing after a nine game timeout. Add these two to Ravern Johnson, their leading returning scorer, and Miss State should be dancing this year. With a big thanks to the NCAA for actually being reasonable, not exactly their strong suit. It's probably in recognition of how much it sucks to lose Varnado.
2. Mississippi Rebels. Chris Warren is back, again (he's apparently under the Jess Settles plan), but he loses his two back court buddies (Eniel Polynice and Terrico White) who combined to give the Rebels one of the best three-man back courts in the country amongst teams who didn't make the NCAA tournament last year. He won't be alone back there, however, because Ole Miss will welcome one of the best names in the country to the program in point guard Dundrecous Nelson (#89 Rivals), as well as Nick Williams, a transfer from Indiana who averaged nearly double-digit points in his year with the Hoosiers. If the Rebs can get some help in the front court they could finally bust through the bubble and make their first NCAA Tournament since 2002. Gotta be sick of being predicted to be a tournament team only to end up in the NIT, no?
3. Arkansas Razorbacks. Mike Pelphrey continues to grab good recruiting classes, but at the same time there seems to be sort of an undercurrent that things might not be all rosy, or maybe that's just the Courtney Fortson affect. And speaking of Fortson, I think I'm pretty glad he never ended up a Gopher, because it seems he may have been just as good at killing his team as he was at helping it. In any case, Pelphrey has this program humming like a good ole fashioned jug band drinkin' moonshine while prepping for a coon hunt. And if that sounded racist against southerners, it probably was. I've been to Arkansas.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide. Mikhail Torrance was an absolute stud for the Tide last year. Unfortunately, he's gone. Fortunately, however, they still JaMychal Green, who is a beast on the block, and swingman Tony Mitchell, who had a very good freshman year and should only get better. They also have a hell of a freshman point guard coming in with Trevor Releford, who may be the most important cog. According to something I read, Tide coach Anthony Grant wants to run an uptempo offense, but didn't have the point guard to do it and went slow down instead (their tempo ranked #247 last year), and the hope is that Releford is the guy who can be turned loose. It might work, and there's talent here, I just don't think it's enough, even in the SEC West.
5. LSU Tigers. Every year I keep waiting for LSU to get back to relevance, but every year it seems they're still stuck down at the bottom of the division - and this year won't change that. Storm Warren is a solid guard, but the other stand-out returner, forward Bo Spencer, peaced out from the program after being declared academically ineligible (at LSU? LOL). With that they are very young and I'm not even sure they know what all they have since Warren is the only returning player who averaged more than 4.6 points per game last year. There is some talent, with SG Aaron Dotson a Rivals top 150 player last year and a good class this year with three more Rivals top 150 types, so they might be on their way back to relevance, just not yet.
6. Auburn Tigers. Things were already going to be tough with four starters graduating (including your top three scorers), but the news got worse when Frankie Sullivan, the lone returning starter, ended up needed ACL surgery that will likely keep him out all year and the Tigers' two top recruits, Luke Cothron (Rivals #45) and Shawn Kemp, Jr. (#105) were both ruled academically eligible for the year (Cothron has since fled to UMass). This leaves Auburn with Earnest Ross as their top returnee, a sophomore guard who averaged 2.8 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes per game last year. In other words it's going to be a long year. At least it will be warm.
SEC EAST
1. Florida Gators. I'm not a huge fan of their guards, because I think both Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton can get a little too out of control and both have a tendency to shoot shots that they shan't be shooting, but there is not denying their talent and the Gators have a stellar front court. Chandler Parsons is a Mike Miller clone sans the bad hair and with a slightly worse jump shot (and he single-handedly won me my fantasy college hoops league last year) and Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin are very good as long as you don't count free throws. In a down year for the SEC, the Gators are clearly the class of either division.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. In what I'm going to assume is about to become a tradition until Calipari is arrested for money laundering, Kentucky lost an assload of good players to the NBA but is reloading with an assload of talent. It's almost a perfect job of recruiting, actually, because these guys are not only talented but cover all five positions: You have PG Brandon Knight (Rivals #6 overall), SG Doron Lamb (#21), SF Stacey Poole (#33), PF Terrence Jones (#13), and C Enes Kanter (#3 overall). Of course, the biggest question is if Kanter will end up eligible, because they aren't particularly strong on the interior without him, but this year will be plenty athletic and is near-perfectly built for the dribble-drive offense Calipari loves. I'd consider this #2 prediction their downside. Well, the actual downside was it turns out Cal has been cheating (NO WAY) and they kick everybody off the team or something. That would probably be worse.
3. Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia may very well be on their way back to relevance, believe it or not. Travis Leslie is an absolute stud, and what Rodney Williams should aspire to become, and they have the league's leading returning scorer and rebounder in power forward Trey Thompkins. These guys should be two of the best players in the conference, but what makes this team really interesting are a couple of newcomers: freshman forward Marcus Thornton and point guard transfer from Tennessee State Gerald Robinson. Thornton could be a great one, with both size and athleticism, and Robinson is the kind of scoring point guard (averaged 15 and 18 points per game in his two years at TSU) who can end up making or breaking a team. I consider these guys a solid sleeper this year.
4. Tennessee Volunteers. I don't exactly know how Bruce Pearl being a huge cheater is going to affect this team, but they're a bit of an enigma already so this doesn't help with the rubix cube here. I've seen them ranked anywhere from 2nd to 4th in various previews, and with three major contributors and starters gone (four if you want to count Tyler Smith) the second place predictions seems awfully optimistic to me. I guess it really depends on how good you think freshman point guard Tobias Harris can be (Rivals #7), and how much of an improvement Cameron Tatum and/or Scottie Hopson can make. I think those three will be pretty studly, but they're all perimeter guys and the Vols are going to be weak on the interior. Plus I wouldn't surprised if Pearl is dismissed/suspended/whatever and this whole thing collapses.
5. Vanderbilt Commodores. If Northwestern is the nerds of midwest, and Stanford is the nerds of the west coast, then Vanderbilt is the nerds of the southeast. And for nerds, they've had a pretty good run of success lately, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years with a sweet16 appearance thrown in. This looking like it's going to be a down year, however, with two double-digit scorers (center A.J. Ogilvy and point guard Jermaine Beal) lost to graduation, but they've built the kind of program at this point where they'll be back soon enough. Sophomore Jeffery Taylor is one of the most athletically gifted players in the conference and should blossom with an increased role on offense, and classmate John Jenkins is a three-point marksman who hit nearly 50% of his threes last year on his way to averaging double-digit points per game. And they're probably all really smart, too. NERDS!!!
6. South Carolina Gamecocks. Remember Devan Downey? He and his 22 points per game have graduated. Along with Dominique Archie (who only played five games last year due to injury) and his 14.4 ppg, Mike Holmes (who only played in seven before being kicked off the team) and his 9.4, and Brandin Raley-Ross and his 10.6. So yes, they're losing a lot. They still have a decent enough inside/outside combo in Ramon Galloway and Sam Muldrow, but let's just say if they were an NBA Jam combo they'd never get picked outside of South Carolina. Coach Darrin Horn loves to play an uptempo style, but with just Galloway and Lakeem Jackson back with significant back court experience, he'll be relying on newcomers and although it's a good class, that's not generally a sign of success. This isn't Kentucky.
SEC WEST
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs. It sucks that Jarvis Varnado graduated, because that guy was as fun to watch as anybody so pardon me if I'm weeping like a fat girl at a prom with no cake while I type this, but the Bulldogs have enough coming back to win their division and make the tournament, mostly because the defied the odds and went 2-0 against the NCAA fascists this offseason. Dee Bost, last year's #3 scorer at 13.2 ppg, declared for the NBA draft, then pulled his name out after the deadline, and instead of following it's own rules they are letting him back to play another year after sitting out the first handful of games. He'll be joined on the suspended bench to start the year by PF Renardo Sidney, last year's #16 ranked freshman by Rivals who sat out of all of last season during an NCAA investigation into something or other, but he'll be playing after a nine game timeout. Add these two to Ravern Johnson, their leading returning scorer, and Miss State should be dancing this year. With a big thanks to the NCAA for actually being reasonable, not exactly their strong suit. It's probably in recognition of how much it sucks to lose Varnado.
2. Mississippi Rebels. Chris Warren is back, again (he's apparently under the Jess Settles plan), but he loses his two back court buddies (Eniel Polynice and Terrico White) who combined to give the Rebels one of the best three-man back courts in the country amongst teams who didn't make the NCAA tournament last year. He won't be alone back there, however, because Ole Miss will welcome one of the best names in the country to the program in point guard Dundrecous Nelson (#89 Rivals), as well as Nick Williams, a transfer from Indiana who averaged nearly double-digit points in his year with the Hoosiers. If the Rebs can get some help in the front court they could finally bust through the bubble and make their first NCAA Tournament since 2002. Gotta be sick of being predicted to be a tournament team only to end up in the NIT, no?
3. Arkansas Razorbacks. Mike Pelphrey continues to grab good recruiting classes, but at the same time there seems to be sort of an undercurrent that things might not be all rosy, or maybe that's just the Courtney Fortson affect. And speaking of Fortson, I think I'm pretty glad he never ended up a Gopher, because it seems he may have been just as good at killing his team as he was at helping it. In any case, Pelphrey has this program humming like a good ole fashioned jug band drinkin' moonshine while prepping for a coon hunt. And if that sounded racist against southerners, it probably was. I've been to Arkansas.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide. Mikhail Torrance was an absolute stud for the Tide last year. Unfortunately, he's gone. Fortunately, however, they still JaMychal Green, who is a beast on the block, and swingman Tony Mitchell, who had a very good freshman year and should only get better. They also have a hell of a freshman point guard coming in with Trevor Releford, who may be the most important cog. According to something I read, Tide coach Anthony Grant wants to run an uptempo offense, but didn't have the point guard to do it and went slow down instead (their tempo ranked #247 last year), and the hope is that Releford is the guy who can be turned loose. It might work, and there's talent here, I just don't think it's enough, even in the SEC West.
5. LSU Tigers. Every year I keep waiting for LSU to get back to relevance, but every year it seems they're still stuck down at the bottom of the division - and this year won't change that. Storm Warren is a solid guard, but the other stand-out returner, forward Bo Spencer, peaced out from the program after being declared academically ineligible (at LSU? LOL). With that they are very young and I'm not even sure they know what all they have since Warren is the only returning player who averaged more than 4.6 points per game last year. There is some talent, with SG Aaron Dotson a Rivals top 150 player last year and a good class this year with three more Rivals top 150 types, so they might be on their way back to relevance, just not yet.
6. Auburn Tigers. Things were already going to be tough with four starters graduating (including your top three scorers), but the news got worse when Frankie Sullivan, the lone returning starter, ended up needed ACL surgery that will likely keep him out all year and the Tigers' two top recruits, Luke Cothron (Rivals #45) and Shawn Kemp, Jr. (#105) were both ruled academically eligible for the year (Cothron has since fled to UMass). This leaves Auburn with Earnest Ross as their top returnee, a sophomore guard who averaged 2.8 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes per game last year. In other words it's going to be a long year. At least it will be warm.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Week in Review - 2/22/2010
Well, I gotta give credit where credit is due: there is very little to complain about in regards to the Gopher hoopsters this week. A big win over the completely hated dickholes from Wisconsin followed by an absolute destruction of the horribly horrid Hoosiers. And they've looked great too. The offense is finally flowing well, and even Westbrook has reigned himself in and begun playing within the flow. The two best games this team has played all year were the two they played this week. If they're going to hit a stride now is the time to do it. Big time games coming up at home against Purdue and then on the road at Illinois this week, and they absolutely have to win at least one and probably both to have a shot at a bid. Of course, if they had played this way they wouldn't have lost to Indiana, Northwestern, or Michigan and would likely have won at least one of the Michigan State games and we wouldn't have to worry about it.
This is such a depressing year. Let's just move on.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Maryland. At this point in the season you're rarely going to see a team with three games in a week, but due to a postponement after the great blizzard of "aught-ten" that's what the Terps had this week and they managed a very nice 3-0. First they beat a tougher-than-expected Virginia squad, then traveled down to NC State and beat the Wolfpack (the same team who beat Wake by 20 this weekend), and then rapped up the week with a buzzer beating home win over Georgia Tech. The Terps are flying under the radar a bit due to a slow start, but since Professor Dirty Beard, Grievis Vasquez, has shaken off an early shooting slump they are one of the better teams in the country. Vasquez and Eric Hayes give them a very good, very experienced backcourt, and you know what they say about good guards in March. The front court might be a little weak, but freshman Jordan Williams is starting to figure it out and has picked up double-digits rebounds in his last three. Very dangerous team. I'd hate for the Gophers to have to face them in the second round.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Kill me.
2. Northern Iowa. The Panthers are definitely the team that helped themselves the most over Bracket Buster weekend, going from "probably getting an at-large bid" to "definitely getting an at-large bid" with their win over Old Dominion. UNI is now 24-3, but didn't have much in the marquee win category. The beat Siena earlier in the year, but that had been their only win over an RPI top 50 team. Mediocre wins abounded: Iowa, Boston College, Iowa State, Creighton, and Wichita State all fell to the Panthers, but the Siena win was the only big victory, and with two losses to sub-100 RPI teams (Bradley, DePaul) they couldn't really feel safe. Beating ODU now gives them that second big win, and increases their RPI rating to #17, and barring a complete collapse in the final regular season week they should be just fine, regardless of the outcome of the MVC tournament.
3. UTEP. If you're a dork like me and were really curious to see how Conference USA would shake out with Calipari jumping ship, you have your answer: UTEP is the tops. Coming into the season there were a bunch of contenders with Tulsa and Memphis the favorites, UAB and UTEP right behind them, and Marshall and Houston the dark horses. Well, the Miners have staked their claim to #1 after beating Tulsa in Tulsa this weekend, giving them a sweep of the Golden Hurricane. With Houston sucking and Marshall being meh it's been a four team race, and UTEP has staked their claim to the top by going 4-0 against the other contenders, and even more impressively three of those wins have been on the road. The Miners still have games left against UAB and Marshall, and have plenty of work to do thanks to a mostly empty non-conference resume, but if they make the tournament they could be a tough out. They are really balanced and can hurt you both inside and out, and will make somebody work very hard to advance.
4. Cornell. When Andy Bernard U lost to Penn two weeks ago it basically killed their at-large chances which would suck because this team can absolutely knock somebody off. The loss to Penn and their #307 RPI is Cornell's only conference loss, but with a dangerous team like Harvard in the conference, and the Ivy giving their auto-bid to the regular season champion, things can get dicey. Luckily for everyone who likes basketball, Cornell took care of business this week, winning at Harvard 79-70 (and then following that up by beating Dartmouth). The loss is the third of the season for Harvard, and with Cornell having swept the Crimson it effectively eliminates them from the race. Cornell's remaining games are home against Penn (4-5) and Princeton (7-2) and then away against Brown (4-6) and Yale (4-6). The only dangerous game is against Princeton who is just 1.5 games behind the Big Red, and lost to them by just three last time they met. Hopefully Cornell can take care of business, because I can't wait to watch them knock off Wisconsin in round 1.
5. Ian Poulter. There is enough going on in college hoops right now where we could fill twice as many places with teams that had good weeks, but I can't just ignore the winner of the Accenture Match Play Challenge - which is Poulter this year. Ian has always had the confidence to be a great player (I believe his quote was something like "There's me and Tiger, and then there's everyone else"), but his game hasn't quite kept up and he's been stuck at that Tier II level. He's had plenty of success in Europe, with eight wins on the European Tour, but has yet to pick up his first PGA Victory, and he's played well in majors, including a runner-up finish at the British in 2008, but hasn't quite broken through. Perhaps this win in the Accenture will get him there, as he beat a nice group of players - Justin Leonard, Adam Scott, Jeev Milka Singh, Thongchai Jaidee (who?), Sergio Garcia, and Paul Casey - and the last two wins over Garcia and Casey weren't close. Guy is a hell of a golfer, hell of a talker, and hell of a dresser (on Sunday he looked like a walking Breast Cancer reminder in a full-pink outfit). Could it be, dare I say it, the Year of the Poulter?
WHO SUCKED
1. South Florida. For all the talk of bracket-busting this weekend, the biggest burst might have been the bubble of the Bulls (how's that for alliteration?). They weren't anywhere near in just yet, and were probably on the wrong side of the bubble, but would have every chance to play themselves into a bid with games left against Villanova and UCONN. Winning either of those, while taking care of business against St. Johns, Providence, and DePaul, would leave USF at 10-8 in Big East play and in pretty decent shape. But, as Gopher fans have seen time and time again, these types of teams are prone to disappointing their fans and the Bulls are no exception, losing at home to St. Johns 74-58 on Saturday and probably killing any at-large dreams. USF allowed St. Johns to shoot 59% from the floor and were out 30-22. Add in Dominique Jones shooting 6-18 and their twin towers Augustus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous combined to shoot 2-10 and you aren't going to win that game very often. The chances of South Florida coming to the Barn for a first round NIT match up are rising. Get excited, Gopher fans.
2. The Colonial Athletic Association. Going into Bracket Busters weekend, the CAA had three teams fighting for at-large consideration: Old Dominion, William & Mary, and Northeastern. ODU would be taking on the top team in the Missouri Valley in Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls, W&M would travel to New York to take on Iona, #2 in the MAAC, and Northeastern would welcome Lousiana Tech, the WAC's number three team, to their place. Overall record: 0-3. Ouch. ODU should be ok thanks to their wins over Georgetown and Charlotte and 13-3 conference record, but W&M and Northeastern are in trouble. The Tribe is in better shape thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland, Richmond, and Wake Forest, but a couple of really bad losses also dot their record (Wilmington, James Madison) and it will be interesting to see how the committee treats them. Northeastern is in the worst shape despite being tied for first in the conference standings thanks to five losses to RPI sub-100 teams, which is hard to overlook. Personally, I think both ODU and W&M should get in, but all three teams had a nice opportunity to boost their profile, and all three whiffed.
3. Siena. It's kind of tough to tell a team that it sucks after they lose on the road to the 13th ranked team in the country, but the Saints needed to beat Butler if they were going to get an at-large bid and didn't despite having the Bulldogs on the ropes early in the second half. The Saints had played Butler to a tie at the 16-minutes mark of the second, but Butler went on 16-5 run and never looked back, closing Siena out by the final score of 70-53 and effectively eliminated any chance of an at-large bid for the Saints. Unfortunately, three major offensive cogs (Ronald Moore, Edwin Ubiles, and Alex Franklin) didn't bother showing up on Saturday, combining to shoot 4-27 (not a misprint) and a 7-7 turnover-assist mark. Maybe the ten AM start was a bit too early for them on a Saturday. Siena is still the class of the MAAC and should be able to win the conference tournament and grab a bid that way, but I'm sure it would have been nice for them to not have to. Way to go, slackasses.
4. Ole Miss. This week was basically a clinic in how not to make the NCAA Tournament by the Rebels. With home games against Florida and Vanderbilt they not only had a good chance to get to third place in the SEC, but they could have done it and grabbed a couple of marquee wins in the process - something their profile is sorely lacking right now. Of course, they are in the "SUCK" portion of this post, so you can probably guess that they lost both games instead and petty much eliminated themselves from at-large consideration. This is really too bad, because as much as I complain about the Dayton fans at that Dayton bar in Chicago their is really nothing better than being in a bar dedicated to a team and watching that team get bounced out of the tournament. Since Dayton is looking less and less likely like a tournament team, we might have to look for someone else, and that bar in Chicago is also an Ole Miss bar (as well as Boston College and Notre Dame). They might not have a single one of their "teams" make the dance, and then we won't have any fans to laugh at. Except Iowa fans. We can laugh at them no matter what.
5. Cincinnati. It's time to give up the dream of me cashing on that 200-1 bet, because the Bearcats aren't even going to make the NCAA Tournament, forget about winning it. After a 0-2 week, they are now 6-8 in the Big East and 15-11 overall and are going to have to go on a huge run to close out the season if they want a chance to reach the big dance. Two very disappointing losses this week against rival bubble teams (at South Florida and vs. Marquette) are going to make it tough, but Cincy still has every chance to make the tournament. Their four final games include chances against #3 Villanova, #10 Georgetown, and #8 West Virginia, and I'd bet winning two of those (and their gimme against DePaul) would set Cincy up in pretty good shape for a bid. Of course, two of those three games are on the road and Cincinnati sucks, so it's more likely they'll close out the year 1-3 and then dip out quickly in the Big East Tournament. The good news is that they would probably be one of the favorites to win the NIT, so they got that going for them. Also Lance Stephenson would be an idiot to go pro after this year, which basically guarantees that he will.
I'd like to mention one other thing that was awesome, and recommend the book Willie Mays: The Life, the Legend by James Hirsch. Let me tell you something, if there is anything you want to know about Mays, this book has it in its 600 pages. It is very focused, and very detailed, and other than a tendency to drift into mini-essays on the racial issues of the 50s and 60s stays focused on the story of Mays. I actually wouldn't have minded a little bit more on guys like Marichal and McCovey, but if you are looking for the story of Willie Mays I wouldn't go anywhere else. Seriously, my appreciation of the guy has gone way up. Despite all his numbers which I've seen again and again, I never realized how great this guy was. Hirsch makes it clear that the players, fans, coaches, and media of the day all considered Willie the best player in the world - except of course for the bigots.
Very cool book. Highly recommended.
Finally, I'm going to debut my own sort of bubble watch thing. It's not fancy, but neither is your mom:
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
West Virginia @ UCONN -The Huskies looked like they were cruising towards a bid after beating Texas, but hit some road bumps and found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. After a successful 2-0 week, including a win over Villanova, they are back in the conversation, and a home win over WVU would go a long way.
And that's it. So that was pretty anticlimactic. Ah well, I'm planning on doing a little something like that every day until selection sunday. But I'm also pretty lazy, so we'll just have to see.
This is such a depressing year. Let's just move on.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Maryland. At this point in the season you're rarely going to see a team with three games in a week, but due to a postponement after the great blizzard of "aught-ten" that's what the Terps had this week and they managed a very nice 3-0. First they beat a tougher-than-expected Virginia squad, then traveled down to NC State and beat the Wolfpack (the same team who beat Wake by 20 this weekend), and then rapped up the week with a buzzer beating home win over Georgia Tech. The Terps are flying under the radar a bit due to a slow start, but since Professor Dirty Beard, Grievis Vasquez, has shaken off an early shooting slump they are one of the better teams in the country. Vasquez and Eric Hayes give them a very good, very experienced backcourt, and you know what they say about good guards in March. The front court might be a little weak, but freshman Jordan Williams is starting to figure it out and has picked up double-digits rebounds in his last three. Very dangerous team. I'd hate for the Gophers to have to face them in the second round.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Kill me.
2. Northern Iowa. The Panthers are definitely the team that helped themselves the most over Bracket Buster weekend, going from "probably getting an at-large bid" to "definitely getting an at-large bid" with their win over Old Dominion. UNI is now 24-3, but didn't have much in the marquee win category. The beat Siena earlier in the year, but that had been their only win over an RPI top 50 team. Mediocre wins abounded: Iowa, Boston College, Iowa State, Creighton, and Wichita State all fell to the Panthers, but the Siena win was the only big victory, and with two losses to sub-100 RPI teams (Bradley, DePaul) they couldn't really feel safe. Beating ODU now gives them that second big win, and increases their RPI rating to #17, and barring a complete collapse in the final regular season week they should be just fine, regardless of the outcome of the MVC tournament.
3. UTEP. If you're a dork like me and were really curious to see how Conference USA would shake out with Calipari jumping ship, you have your answer: UTEP is the tops. Coming into the season there were a bunch of contenders with Tulsa and Memphis the favorites, UAB and UTEP right behind them, and Marshall and Houston the dark horses. Well, the Miners have staked their claim to #1 after beating Tulsa in Tulsa this weekend, giving them a sweep of the Golden Hurricane. With Houston sucking and Marshall being meh it's been a four team race, and UTEP has staked their claim to the top by going 4-0 against the other contenders, and even more impressively three of those wins have been on the road. The Miners still have games left against UAB and Marshall, and have plenty of work to do thanks to a mostly empty non-conference resume, but if they make the tournament they could be a tough out. They are really balanced and can hurt you both inside and out, and will make somebody work very hard to advance.
4. Cornell. When Andy Bernard U lost to Penn two weeks ago it basically killed their at-large chances which would suck because this team can absolutely knock somebody off. The loss to Penn and their #307 RPI is Cornell's only conference loss, but with a dangerous team like Harvard in the conference, and the Ivy giving their auto-bid to the regular season champion, things can get dicey. Luckily for everyone who likes basketball, Cornell took care of business this week, winning at Harvard 79-70 (and then following that up by beating Dartmouth). The loss is the third of the season for Harvard, and with Cornell having swept the Crimson it effectively eliminates them from the race. Cornell's remaining games are home against Penn (4-5) and Princeton (7-2) and then away against Brown (4-6) and Yale (4-6). The only dangerous game is against Princeton who is just 1.5 games behind the Big Red, and lost to them by just three last time they met. Hopefully Cornell can take care of business, because I can't wait to watch them knock off Wisconsin in round 1.
5. Ian Poulter. There is enough going on in college hoops right now where we could fill twice as many places with teams that had good weeks, but I can't just ignore the winner of the Accenture Match Play Challenge - which is Poulter this year. Ian has always had the confidence to be a great player (I believe his quote was something like "There's me and Tiger, and then there's everyone else"), but his game hasn't quite kept up and he's been stuck at that Tier II level. He's had plenty of success in Europe, with eight wins on the European Tour, but has yet to pick up his first PGA Victory, and he's played well in majors, including a runner-up finish at the British in 2008, but hasn't quite broken through. Perhaps this win in the Accenture will get him there, as he beat a nice group of players - Justin Leonard, Adam Scott, Jeev Milka Singh, Thongchai Jaidee (who?), Sergio Garcia, and Paul Casey - and the last two wins over Garcia and Casey weren't close. Guy is a hell of a golfer, hell of a talker, and hell of a dresser (on Sunday he looked like a walking Breast Cancer reminder in a full-pink outfit). Could it be, dare I say it, the Year of the Poulter?
WHO SUCKED
1. South Florida. For all the talk of bracket-busting this weekend, the biggest burst might have been the bubble of the Bulls (how's that for alliteration?). They weren't anywhere near in just yet, and were probably on the wrong side of the bubble, but would have every chance to play themselves into a bid with games left against Villanova and UCONN. Winning either of those, while taking care of business against St. Johns, Providence, and DePaul, would leave USF at 10-8 in Big East play and in pretty decent shape. But, as Gopher fans have seen time and time again, these types of teams are prone to disappointing their fans and the Bulls are no exception, losing at home to St. Johns 74-58 on Saturday and probably killing any at-large dreams. USF allowed St. Johns to shoot 59% from the floor and were out 30-22. Add in Dominique Jones shooting 6-18 and their twin towers Augustus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous combined to shoot 2-10 and you aren't going to win that game very often. The chances of South Florida coming to the Barn for a first round NIT match up are rising. Get excited, Gopher fans.
2. The Colonial Athletic Association. Going into Bracket Busters weekend, the CAA had three teams fighting for at-large consideration: Old Dominion, William & Mary, and Northeastern. ODU would be taking on the top team in the Missouri Valley in Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls, W&M would travel to New York to take on Iona, #2 in the MAAC, and Northeastern would welcome Lousiana Tech, the WAC's number three team, to their place. Overall record: 0-3. Ouch. ODU should be ok thanks to their wins over Georgetown and Charlotte and 13-3 conference record, but W&M and Northeastern are in trouble. The Tribe is in better shape thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland, Richmond, and Wake Forest, but a couple of really bad losses also dot their record (Wilmington, James Madison) and it will be interesting to see how the committee treats them. Northeastern is in the worst shape despite being tied for first in the conference standings thanks to five losses to RPI sub-100 teams, which is hard to overlook. Personally, I think both ODU and W&M should get in, but all three teams had a nice opportunity to boost their profile, and all three whiffed.
3. Siena. It's kind of tough to tell a team that it sucks after they lose on the road to the 13th ranked team in the country, but the Saints needed to beat Butler if they were going to get an at-large bid and didn't despite having the Bulldogs on the ropes early in the second half. The Saints had played Butler to a tie at the 16-minutes mark of the second, but Butler went on 16-5 run and never looked back, closing Siena out by the final score of 70-53 and effectively eliminated any chance of an at-large bid for the Saints. Unfortunately, three major offensive cogs (Ronald Moore, Edwin Ubiles, and Alex Franklin) didn't bother showing up on Saturday, combining to shoot 4-27 (not a misprint) and a 7-7 turnover-assist mark. Maybe the ten AM start was a bit too early for them on a Saturday. Siena is still the class of the MAAC and should be able to win the conference tournament and grab a bid that way, but I'm sure it would have been nice for them to not have to. Way to go, slackasses.
4. Ole Miss. This week was basically a clinic in how not to make the NCAA Tournament by the Rebels. With home games against Florida and Vanderbilt they not only had a good chance to get to third place in the SEC, but they could have done it and grabbed a couple of marquee wins in the process - something their profile is sorely lacking right now. Of course, they are in the "SUCK" portion of this post, so you can probably guess that they lost both games instead and petty much eliminated themselves from at-large consideration. This is really too bad, because as much as I complain about the Dayton fans at that Dayton bar in Chicago their is really nothing better than being in a bar dedicated to a team and watching that team get bounced out of the tournament. Since Dayton is looking less and less likely like a tournament team, we might have to look for someone else, and that bar in Chicago is also an Ole Miss bar (as well as Boston College and Notre Dame). They might not have a single one of their "teams" make the dance, and then we won't have any fans to laugh at. Except Iowa fans. We can laugh at them no matter what.
5. Cincinnati. It's time to give up the dream of me cashing on that 200-1 bet, because the Bearcats aren't even going to make the NCAA Tournament, forget about winning it. After a 0-2 week, they are now 6-8 in the Big East and 15-11 overall and are going to have to go on a huge run to close out the season if they want a chance to reach the big dance. Two very disappointing losses this week against rival bubble teams (at South Florida and vs. Marquette) are going to make it tough, but Cincy still has every chance to make the tournament. Their four final games include chances against #3 Villanova, #10 Georgetown, and #8 West Virginia, and I'd bet winning two of those (and their gimme against DePaul) would set Cincy up in pretty good shape for a bid. Of course, two of those three games are on the road and Cincinnati sucks, so it's more likely they'll close out the year 1-3 and then dip out quickly in the Big East Tournament. The good news is that they would probably be one of the favorites to win the NIT, so they got that going for them. Also Lance Stephenson would be an idiot to go pro after this year, which basically guarantees that he will.
I'd like to mention one other thing that was awesome, and recommend the book Willie Mays: The Life, the Legend by James Hirsch. Let me tell you something, if there is anything you want to know about Mays, this book has it in its 600 pages. It is very focused, and very detailed, and other than a tendency to drift into mini-essays on the racial issues of the 50s and 60s stays focused on the story of Mays. I actually wouldn't have minded a little bit more on guys like Marichal and McCovey, but if you are looking for the story of Willie Mays I wouldn't go anywhere else. Seriously, my appreciation of the guy has gone way up. Despite all his numbers which I've seen again and again, I never realized how great this guy was. Hirsch makes it clear that the players, fans, coaches, and media of the day all considered Willie the best player in the world - except of course for the bigots.
Very cool book. Highly recommended.
Finally, I'm going to debut my own sort of bubble watch thing. It's not fancy, but neither is your mom:
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
West Virginia @ UCONN -The Huskies looked like they were cruising towards a bid after beating Texas, but hit some road bumps and found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. After a successful 2-0 week, including a win over Villanova, they are back in the conversation, and a home win over WVU would go a long way.
And that's it. So that was pretty anticlimactic. Ah well, I'm planning on doing a little something like that every day until selection sunday. But I'm also pretty lazy, so we'll just have to see.
Friday, October 30, 2009
NCAA Basketball Preview: The SEC
I have no idea what happened to the SEC. This used to be a really, really good conference, but seems to have slipped since the Florida back-to-back championship teams and is now pretty much the worst of the major conferences. Things are looking to turn, however, as there are a couple of big-time contenders here now and the conference as a whole looks like it is getting a whole lot better. I also hate that they split out their conference into East and West divisions. Unnecessary and annoying. In protest, I will be listing them as a whole, not breaking it down by division. Take that Robert E. Lee!
1. Kentucky. Well I for one can't wait to see this John Wall character. You can't read anything about Kentucky or even the NCAA basketball season as a whole without him being mentioned. The comparison I see a lot is "a better Derrick Rose" which like, whoa. He's on everybody's award winner predictions lists, anywhere from the SEC Player of the Year all the way up to National Player of the Year, and he hasn't played a minute yet. There's plenty of talent around him, that's for sure. Patrick Patterson is insanely good, and for some strange reason is still in college rather than the NBA, and that recruiting class Calipari paid to come to Lexington is out of this world. Other than Wall, who is #1 on the Rivals 150, they also got PF DeMarcus Cousins (#2), C Daniel Orton (#22), PG Eric Bledsoe (#23) who I desperately wanted to become a Gopher, and G Jon Hood (#55). Holy god. The talent is there, anything less than a final four appearance is going to be a disappointment (this assumes the eligibility issues with Wall are resolved and he ends up playing.)
2. Mississippi State. I love Jarvis Varnado. Love him. I had a chance to watch him in a game a couple of years ago as a sophomore, and fell in love with his defense - he averaged 4.7 blocks per game last year to lead the nation and, barring injury, will almost certainly become the all-time leader in blocked shots in NCAA history. But it gets better. After being a defensive force his first two seasons, before last year he worked on his offensive game, developed some low-post moves, and increased his scoring from 8ppg as a sophomore to 13 per game last year. Even more, I read this offseason he's worked tirelessly on adding a mid-range jumper. Based on his ability to improve year over year, I can't wait to see his new offensive game, and he could be gunning for All-American status. All this from a guy who already has a triple-double in his career and several other near misses. The Bulldogs are hurt a bit by recruit Renardo Sidney (Rivals #16) being ruled ineligible, but there is a lot here surrounding Varnado. The Final Four might be aiming a bit too high, but you can expect MSU to be a major contender.
3. Tennessee. Despite losing a bunch of players last year, the Vols were a bit of a disappointment last year, finishing up an uneven season with five losses by 3 points or less, including their loss to Oklahoma State in the NCAA Tournament. The good news is that everybody is back, and they add two key pieces in PF Kenny Hall (Rivals #74) who will help shore up the inside game, and juco PG Melvin Goins (#62 Juco), who can help at point guard - a weakness last year, especially in SEC play. Another issue that needs to be fixed is the three-point shot, once a huge weapon for Tennessee it proved to be an achilles' heel last year - the Vols shot just 31.5% behind the line, worst in the SEC and 286th in the country. The hope is that sophomores Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson, now with a year of college hoops under their belts, can improve, and that might end up being the difference between an average team and a great team.
4. Vanderbilt. I've managed to pretty much completely avoid Vanderbilt for years, except for when Derrick Byars was there, that guy was a freakin' stud. I wonder what he's up to, hold on. Let's see, bounced around a few different NBA teams without ever sticking, and ended up playing the last couple of seasons in Germany and France before hooking on with the Bakersfield Jam in the D-League last year. He averaged 18 points per game for them and made the all-star team, was invited to Bulls training camp this year, made the team and is on the opening night roster. Sweet. Oh, and all the magazines and previews and everything say Vandy is going to be really good this year. I do know they have a beast down low whose name I can't remember.
5. Arkansas. I've been following Courtney Fortson closely since the Gophers were after him, and I still can't decide if I wish he was here or not - even with the current PG situation. On the one hand, his stats are amazing - 14.5 points/5.9 assists/5.5 rebounds - incredible for a 5-11 freshman, and he notched a triple-double in just his seventh ever game, and nearly had two more against Oklahoma and LSU, not exactly horrible teams. On the other hand, his turnovers are wildly high (4.4 per game) including a game where he turned the ball over 10 times in 29 minutes, he's not a very good shooter (31% from three, 60% from the line), and he once went 7-27 from the floor in a game. All in all, the dude is wildly talented, and assuming he reigns in his game and continues to improve with age, he's going to be a star - so yes, I do wish he was a Gopher. There is plenty of other talent back, including three other double digit scorers, and a very good recruiting class, so the Razorbacks should be in the NCAA hunt. Of course, after their huge nonconference wins over top ten teams Oklahoma and Texas last year we thought that too, before they inexplicably went 2-14 in the SEC. Well, not that inexplicable. They had more turnovers than assists last year. That's not good, FYI.
6. Ole Miss. This team is loaded on the perimeter. If you haven't had a chance to watch Chris Warren play, I highly recommend you look for them on tv. Warren is a driving force and is nearly unstoppable with the ball, but he got hurt last year and only played in 11 games, dooming the Rebels to a season that ended after the SEC tournament. That shouldn't happen this year, assuming nobody gets hurt. With all the injuries last year, Terrico White was thurst into a starring role and he thrived, winning SEC Freshman of the Year honors. Assuming they get decent play from the front court, these guys are going to put a ton of points on the board. It's if they can stop anybody that's in question - they were the worst defensive team in the SEC last season.
7. South Carolina. It turns out this conference is even deeper than I thought, because the Gamecocks feel like a team that should be much higher than 7th in their conference. Two of their three big guns are back, and guard Devan Downey has the look of a player who will contend for the SEC Player of the Year. He can score (37 against Baylor last year), but also turns the ball over way too much (8 TOs to 0 assists in that same game and just a 1.3 Ast/TO ratio). If he can control the ball it will go a long way towards getting South Carolina back in the NCAA tournament. Also I can never, ever, like this team since they stole Georgia Tech's "Lethal Weapon 3" nickname, when it was obvious to anyone that they were just a bunch of gunners and a total mirage - a belief completely vindicated when they went down as a #2 seed. Karma, baby. Karma.
8. Florida. I suppose losing your whole team after back-to-back national championships usually entails a rebuilding process, but it seems that it's not going all that well for the Gators. Not that it's Billy Donovan's fault, since he's been hit by players leaving the program early the past couple seasons (Speights, Calathes, Lucas). Even so, it doesn't feel quite right having Florida this low, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them in the NCAA tournament, especially if Kenny Boynton (Rivals #12) is as good as advertised. He will pretty much have to be, because although Florida has some nice talent in their frontcourt - including transfer Vernon Macklin from Georgetown - the backcourt really needs some help. Outside of Boynton, point man Erving Walker, who had a pretty good freshman year last season, is about all they have.
9. Alabama. I'm sort of thinking I have Alabama too low here, they could easily finish as high as fifth, but since I've already typed this out and the control key on my keyboard doesn't work, I don't feel like cutting and pasting. Although he's not the team's leading returning scorer, sophomore JaMychal Green might be the key for the Tide this season. He was a stud recruit last season (Rivals #21), and had a very good freshman campaign (10pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks per game), which included six double-doubles. If he continues to improve and can become the offensive focal point it will go a long way towards a good season for the Tide. Among a big and talented group of newcomers is Shawn Kemp, one of I assume several sons of THAT Shawn Kemp, one of my favorite NBA players of all-time. (NOTE: I am finding conflicting information, some sources say he is signed with Alabama, others say he has reopened his recruitment which seems weird since the season starts in like two weeks so I don't know what is going on except that there has been a hole in my soul since Kemp retired and it would be nice to have another Shawn Kemp to take his place).
10. LSU. The Tigers had an excellent season last year, making it to the second round of the NCAA tournament, but the team has been gutted by graduation, and now they will return just two guys who averaged more than 2 points or 8 minutes per game last year. Those two are pretty good - Bo Spencer is an excellent shooter and Tasmin Mitchell is absolutely one of the best inside/outside players in the country and will be in the NBA next season - but there isn't much else here. A small recruiting class leaves the Tigers thin and inexperienced, and although Mitchell will be fun to watch, I don't see a whole lot else fun happening in the bayou this season. They'll be back at the top soon enough - next year's recruiting class is a top 20 type of class already - but not this year.
11. Auburn. Remember last year, how Auburn won 10 conference games but still couldn't get an NCAA tournament bid because they went 10-4 through a non-conference schedule that would make Glen Mason blush? Yeah, most of the good players from that team are gone. Their leading scorer and assist man is back in DeWayne Reed, and he'll have a couple of guys to dish to on the wing who love to bomb the long ball in Tay Waller and Frankie Sullivan, but looking down low is going to be an issue. Coach Jeff Lebo brings in a gaggle of 3-star players, three of them with good size, and will need one of them to play well or have one of the nondescript veterans step up. They are still set up as a team that could get hot on the right night and knock off a much better team thanks to their shooters, but they aren't getting anywhere near the NCAA tournament.
12. Georgia. How bad is it for the Bulldogs right now? CollegeHoops.Net does a preview of their top 144 teams every year, and this year Georgia failed to make the list [Gophers = #18]. Teams on the list include Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Jackson State, South Carolina State, and Iowa. They're worse than Iowa - ouch. Two minor reasons for optimism - new coach Mark Fox, who had a lot of success at Nevada, and sophomore forward Trey Thompkins, a top 30 recurit last year who had an excellent first year for the Dawgs. My new favorite player though might be their center Albert Jackson, who played more than 19 minutes per game last year despite his incredible 1-to-5.2 assist to turnover ratio, thanks to his season total of eleven. The next Yinka Dare, perhaps?
Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
Atlantic Coast
Big Twelve
Big East
1. Kentucky. Well I for one can't wait to see this John Wall character. You can't read anything about Kentucky or even the NCAA basketball season as a whole without him being mentioned. The comparison I see a lot is "a better Derrick Rose" which like, whoa. He's on everybody's award winner predictions lists, anywhere from the SEC Player of the Year all the way up to National Player of the Year, and he hasn't played a minute yet. There's plenty of talent around him, that's for sure. Patrick Patterson is insanely good, and for some strange reason is still in college rather than the NBA, and that recruiting class Calipari paid to come to Lexington is out of this world. Other than Wall, who is #1 on the Rivals 150, they also got PF DeMarcus Cousins (#2), C Daniel Orton (#22), PG Eric Bledsoe (#23) who I desperately wanted to become a Gopher, and G Jon Hood (#55). Holy god. The talent is there, anything less than a final four appearance is going to be a disappointment (this assumes the eligibility issues with Wall are resolved and he ends up playing.)
2. Mississippi State. I love Jarvis Varnado. Love him. I had a chance to watch him in a game a couple of years ago as a sophomore, and fell in love with his defense - he averaged 4.7 blocks per game last year to lead the nation and, barring injury, will almost certainly become the all-time leader in blocked shots in NCAA history. But it gets better. After being a defensive force his first two seasons, before last year he worked on his offensive game, developed some low-post moves, and increased his scoring from 8ppg as a sophomore to 13 per game last year. Even more, I read this offseason he's worked tirelessly on adding a mid-range jumper. Based on his ability to improve year over year, I can't wait to see his new offensive game, and he could be gunning for All-American status. All this from a guy who already has a triple-double in his career and several other near misses. The Bulldogs are hurt a bit by recruit Renardo Sidney (Rivals #16) being ruled ineligible, but there is a lot here surrounding Varnado. The Final Four might be aiming a bit too high, but you can expect MSU to be a major contender.
3. Tennessee. Despite losing a bunch of players last year, the Vols were a bit of a disappointment last year, finishing up an uneven season with five losses by 3 points or less, including their loss to Oklahoma State in the NCAA Tournament. The good news is that everybody is back, and they add two key pieces in PF Kenny Hall (Rivals #74) who will help shore up the inside game, and juco PG Melvin Goins (#62 Juco), who can help at point guard - a weakness last year, especially in SEC play. Another issue that needs to be fixed is the three-point shot, once a huge weapon for Tennessee it proved to be an achilles' heel last year - the Vols shot just 31.5% behind the line, worst in the SEC and 286th in the country. The hope is that sophomores Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson, now with a year of college hoops under their belts, can improve, and that might end up being the difference between an average team and a great team.
4. Vanderbilt. I've managed to pretty much completely avoid Vanderbilt for years, except for when Derrick Byars was there, that guy was a freakin' stud. I wonder what he's up to, hold on. Let's see, bounced around a few different NBA teams without ever sticking, and ended up playing the last couple of seasons in Germany and France before hooking on with the Bakersfield Jam in the D-League last year. He averaged 18 points per game for them and made the all-star team, was invited to Bulls training camp this year, made the team and is on the opening night roster. Sweet. Oh, and all the magazines and previews and everything say Vandy is going to be really good this year. I do know they have a beast down low whose name I can't remember.
5. Arkansas. I've been following Courtney Fortson closely since the Gophers were after him, and I still can't decide if I wish he was here or not - even with the current PG situation. On the one hand, his stats are amazing - 14.5 points/5.9 assists/5.5 rebounds - incredible for a 5-11 freshman, and he notched a triple-double in just his seventh ever game, and nearly had two more against Oklahoma and LSU, not exactly horrible teams. On the other hand, his turnovers are wildly high (4.4 per game) including a game where he turned the ball over 10 times in 29 minutes, he's not a very good shooter (31% from three, 60% from the line), and he once went 7-27 from the floor in a game. All in all, the dude is wildly talented, and assuming he reigns in his game and continues to improve with age, he's going to be a star - so yes, I do wish he was a Gopher. There is plenty of other talent back, including three other double digit scorers, and a very good recruiting class, so the Razorbacks should be in the NCAA hunt. Of course, after their huge nonconference wins over top ten teams Oklahoma and Texas last year we thought that too, before they inexplicably went 2-14 in the SEC. Well, not that inexplicable. They had more turnovers than assists last year. That's not good, FYI.
6. Ole Miss. This team is loaded on the perimeter. If you haven't had a chance to watch Chris Warren play, I highly recommend you look for them on tv. Warren is a driving force and is nearly unstoppable with the ball, but he got hurt last year and only played in 11 games, dooming the Rebels to a season that ended after the SEC tournament. That shouldn't happen this year, assuming nobody gets hurt. With all the injuries last year, Terrico White was thurst into a starring role and he thrived, winning SEC Freshman of the Year honors. Assuming they get decent play from the front court, these guys are going to put a ton of points on the board. It's if they can stop anybody that's in question - they were the worst defensive team in the SEC last season.
7. South Carolina. It turns out this conference is even deeper than I thought, because the Gamecocks feel like a team that should be much higher than 7th in their conference. Two of their three big guns are back, and guard Devan Downey has the look of a player who will contend for the SEC Player of the Year. He can score (37 against Baylor last year), but also turns the ball over way too much (8 TOs to 0 assists in that same game and just a 1.3 Ast/TO ratio). If he can control the ball it will go a long way towards getting South Carolina back in the NCAA tournament. Also I can never, ever, like this team since they stole Georgia Tech's "Lethal Weapon 3" nickname, when it was obvious to anyone that they were just a bunch of gunners and a total mirage - a belief completely vindicated when they went down as a #2 seed. Karma, baby. Karma.
8. Florida. I suppose losing your whole team after back-to-back national championships usually entails a rebuilding process, but it seems that it's not going all that well for the Gators. Not that it's Billy Donovan's fault, since he's been hit by players leaving the program early the past couple seasons (Speights, Calathes, Lucas). Even so, it doesn't feel quite right having Florida this low, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them in the NCAA tournament, especially if Kenny Boynton (Rivals #12) is as good as advertised. He will pretty much have to be, because although Florida has some nice talent in their frontcourt - including transfer Vernon Macklin from Georgetown - the backcourt really needs some help. Outside of Boynton, point man Erving Walker, who had a pretty good freshman year last season, is about all they have.
9. Alabama. I'm sort of thinking I have Alabama too low here, they could easily finish as high as fifth, but since I've already typed this out and the control key on my keyboard doesn't work, I don't feel like cutting and pasting. Although he's not the team's leading returning scorer, sophomore JaMychal Green might be the key for the Tide this season. He was a stud recruit last season (Rivals #21), and had a very good freshman campaign (10pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks per game), which included six double-doubles. If he continues to improve and can become the offensive focal point it will go a long way towards a good season for the Tide. Among a big and talented group of newcomers is Shawn Kemp, one of I assume several sons of THAT Shawn Kemp, one of my favorite NBA players of all-time. (NOTE: I am finding conflicting information, some sources say he is signed with Alabama, others say he has reopened his recruitment which seems weird since the season starts in like two weeks so I don't know what is going on except that there has been a hole in my soul since Kemp retired and it would be nice to have another Shawn Kemp to take his place).
10. LSU. The Tigers had an excellent season last year, making it to the second round of the NCAA tournament, but the team has been gutted by graduation, and now they will return just two guys who averaged more than 2 points or 8 minutes per game last year. Those two are pretty good - Bo Spencer is an excellent shooter and Tasmin Mitchell is absolutely one of the best inside/outside players in the country and will be in the NBA next season - but there isn't much else here. A small recruiting class leaves the Tigers thin and inexperienced, and although Mitchell will be fun to watch, I don't see a whole lot else fun happening in the bayou this season. They'll be back at the top soon enough - next year's recruiting class is a top 20 type of class already - but not this year.
11. Auburn. Remember last year, how Auburn won 10 conference games but still couldn't get an NCAA tournament bid because they went 10-4 through a non-conference schedule that would make Glen Mason blush? Yeah, most of the good players from that team are gone. Their leading scorer and assist man is back in DeWayne Reed, and he'll have a couple of guys to dish to on the wing who love to bomb the long ball in Tay Waller and Frankie Sullivan, but looking down low is going to be an issue. Coach Jeff Lebo brings in a gaggle of 3-star players, three of them with good size, and will need one of them to play well or have one of the nondescript veterans step up. They are still set up as a team that could get hot on the right night and knock off a much better team thanks to their shooters, but they aren't getting anywhere near the NCAA tournament.
12. Georgia. How bad is it for the Bulldogs right now? CollegeHoops.Net does a preview of their top 144 teams every year, and this year Georgia failed to make the list [Gophers = #18]. Teams on the list include Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Jackson State, South Carolina State, and Iowa. They're worse than Iowa - ouch. Two minor reasons for optimism - new coach Mark Fox, who had a lot of success at Nevada, and sophomore forward Trey Thompkins, a top 30 recurit last year who had an excellent first year for the Dawgs. My new favorite player though might be their center Albert Jackson, who played more than 19 minutes per game last year despite his incredible 1-to-5.2 assist to turnover ratio, thanks to his season total of eleven. The next Yinka Dare, perhaps?
Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
Atlantic Coast
Big Twelve
Big East
Monday, September 28, 2009
Weekend Review - 9/28/2009
Obviously I survived our little cookout yesterday with Dawger, Super Sioux Fan, and Baby Dawger, and I had a shockingly good time. Super Sioux Fan didn't try to kill me (to my knowledge), we ate some good food, watched a hell of a win by the Vikes and a predictable loss by the Twins, I beat Dawger in HORSE, and learned that Vodka & Tab is actually pretty damn good. The day ended with hugs for all and by all, and I don't know which was scarier, when SSF hugged me, or when she hugged WonderbabyTM. Luckily, she decided not to kill either of us this time. Narrowly averted death, or grossly overestimated SSF craziness? I'll let you decide. Anyway, on to the stupid crap.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Jacob Edward Peavy. Great googily-moogily, how much does it suck that this guy is going to be in the AL Central until like, 2012 or something? In just his second start back from injury (since June 8th) he came out and completely shut down the Tigers Friday night, going seven scoreless innings allowing just six hits and striking out eight. The Sox (well, more accurately the Twins) needed him to throw that well too, since the White Sox bats weren't working against Tigers' starter Eddie Bonine who nobody has ever heard of. Bonine no-hit the Sox until their were 2 outs in the sixth, which is when Brandon "0 homers in the derby" Inge kicked away a routine groundball, letting Alex Rios reach. The next batter was David Beckham, who went yahtzee for the Sox first hit and gave them the 2-0 lead - which would also be the final margin. Anyway, this really sucks that Peavy is on the White Sox. AL pitchers are supposed to go over to the NL and dominate, not the other way around. It's going to be frustrating watching the Twins flail away against him.
2. Phil Mickelson. Well this was pretty unexpected. I thought Mickelson was essentially done for the year after the whole double cancer issue, and his play was showing it, but he came up huge and won the Tour Championship this weekend. He didn't have a finish in the top-25 in the five tournaments since the US Open, and started slowly this weekend with a 73 (+3) on Thursday, but he got better each day, closing it out 67-66-65, good enough for nine under par and a three shot win over a Tiger, not to mention an extra $1.35 million in the bank. Tiger ended up the winner of the $10 mil and the Fed Ex Cup, but this is a good win for Phil not only to build on, but to remind everybody that he's still the second best golfer in the world. I'm thinking 2010 might end up being a big year for him.
3. South Florida. Huge win over #18 Florida State on Saturday in Tallahassee, fueled by two major parts - QB B.J. Daniels and their defense, particularly the defensive line. The Bulls defense held the Seminoles to just 7 points and 16 rushing yards in their 17-7 upset, while sacking FSU QB Christian Ponder five times, forcing (and recovering) four fumbles, and putting so much pressure on the QB that FSU had to abandon anything down field. Daniels is an even better story - making his first career start, replacing four-year starter Matt Grothe who is now out for the season with an injury. Not only that, the Seminoles recruited Daniels but told him they wanted him as a WR, not as a QB, but he certainly showed them, tossing for 215 yards and 2 scores while rushing for 124 yards. It was the first time since 1986 FSU as allowed an opposing QB to run for over 100 yards, and is the first win over Florida's big three schools for the Bulls. I have a feeling they had a good time that night.
4. Zack Greinke. Seeing as the Twins' were fortunate enough to miss Mr. Greinke all season long, I never really got to see him pitch. Now that I have, holy dear god. This guy is ridiculous. His fastball is in the upper mid-nineties and tails about a foot, his curve falls off a cliff, and his change had guys lunging like Cuddyer after a slider in the dirt, but I'm talkiing good hitters like Kubel and Span. He shut down the Twins Sunday, and his season numbers are now a 16-8 record, a 2.06 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP, and he's either first or second in every meaningful pitching category. Honestly, him losing the Cy Young might be a bigger travesty than Mauer losing the MVP. This one is a true test of how stupid award voters are, which makes me very nervous for Greinke. Here's hoping they make the right choice. Oh, and just for kicks, his ERA in September is 0.35. No lie.
5. Greg Lewis. That catch was sick. Absolutely gorgeous. I'll admit, when the Vikes picked up Lewis my reaction was to make a dismissive wanking motion, but it turns out I was dead wrong. Favre is the hero here, no doubt, for a great play on that finale as well as for leading the team on the game winning drive - one which T-Jax couldn't have pulled off - but if Lewis doesn't make that ridiculous catch that's the ball game, the Vikes are 2-1, and everybody is freaking out and wondering if the team sucks now. And speaking of sucks, it really sucks that Frank Gore is hurt. Not just because he is on my fantasy team either. Ok just kidding. That's pretty much the whole reason.
Here is Lewis's catch. If you haven't seen it, you need to watch it. If you have, are you telling me you don't want to see it again?
WHO SUCKED
1. Ole Miss. I had no idea Ole Miss was ranked #4 in football. I thought the only time they were good was when Eli Manning was slinging the pill all those years back and that they had faded back into mediocrity. Apparently not so, but they may be heading that way after laying an absolute egg and losing 16-10 to the unranked Gamecocks of South Carolina on Thursday. After looking into it, it turns out that this is the highest ranking the Rebels have had since 1970, and also that their QB, Jevan Snead is thought of as one of the best QBs in college football. He certainly didn't play like it, putting up a Jake Delhomme of a day, completing just 7 of 21 passes for the game and leading the Rebs on a drive of more than 49 yards just once. Oh well, another top 5 teams bites it. Maybe this will help get a non-BCS team like Boise into the championship game. Plus, I finally get to post this picture of Ole Miss chicks I've been holding onto.
3. Tampa Bay. Guess how many yards Tampa Bay gained Sunday against the Giants. Nevermind, it's impossible to even guess - it's 86. 86 yards. Eighty-six. And that's the entire game, mind you, not just a half or a quarter or a drive. Byron Leftwich, Tampa's QB and the guy I just picked up to be my backup QB, completed just seven of 16 attemps, for a huge total of 22 yards and a pick before being pulled for Josh Johnson who I have never heard of. Johnson was much more effective, completing four of ten for 36 yards, and also rushing once for a gain of 15. Funny thing about that 15 yard gain is that it made Johnson the leading rusher for the Bucs on the day. That vaunted three-headed monster at RB of Earnest Graham, Cadillac Williams, and Derrick Ward racked up a grand total of 13 yards, with Caddy leading the way with eight. Needless to say, they scored 0 points and are starting to look like they're going to give the Rams, Browns, and Raiders a run for that first overall pick in 2010, or as I like to call it, "The Sam Bradford Sweepstakes."
4. Jamarcus Russell. Remember when the Raiders took Russell first overall in the 2007 draft and everybody was like "Dude, what? This guy isn't a first overall type. There's way better guys like, oh, say Adrian Peterson available. If you really need a QB, trade down and take Brady Quinn at least. Good god, you're not really going to take J-Russ first are you?" Well, it keeps looking more and more like everybody was right. Russell laid his latest bomb on Sunday, completing 12-21 passes for a grand total of 61 yards (and 2 picks). That's five yards per completion. Five. I don't even know how that is possible. I wish I would have watched this game. Was it a series of shovel passes? Failed screen after failed screen? I'm stumped. That gave him a QB rating of 22.6, which will really drag down his season rating of 46.6 coming into the game. The best part? He's making north of $16 million this year. Awesome.
5. Francisco Liriano. Let's just go ahead and shut it down guys, it's over for Franky. In case you missed it, he decided he didn't even want to get out of the second inning against KC on Sunday, mainly because he once again refused to throw strikes and when he did people like frickin' Yuniesky Betancourt hit it eight billion miles. He needs to work his ass off this winter and figure something out, because his career is about thisclose to being over right now. Assuming he doesn't pitch again this season (please god), his final numbers are 5-13 with an ERA of 5.88 and a WHIP of 1.56. I don't have the time or inclination right now to get further into his numbers (Sidler, you still alive?), but things really aren't good. He's like the Jamarcus Russell of pitchers.
So that'll do it. Honorable mention for sucking to Terrell Owens, who didn't have a catch yesterday because he's gay.
I am off to the Detroit City tomorrow, and will be spending two nights in the toilet bowl of america - including one night when I'll be at Comerica Park to no doubt watch the Twins lose. For now I leave you with this awesome picture of Baby Dawger and WonderbabyTM.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Jacob Edward Peavy. Great googily-moogily, how much does it suck that this guy is going to be in the AL Central until like, 2012 or something? In just his second start back from injury (since June 8th) he came out and completely shut down the Tigers Friday night, going seven scoreless innings allowing just six hits and striking out eight. The Sox (well, more accurately the Twins) needed him to throw that well too, since the White Sox bats weren't working against Tigers' starter Eddie Bonine who nobody has ever heard of. Bonine no-hit the Sox until their were 2 outs in the sixth, which is when Brandon "0 homers in the derby" Inge kicked away a routine groundball, letting Alex Rios reach. The next batter was David Beckham, who went yahtzee for the Sox first hit and gave them the 2-0 lead - which would also be the final margin. Anyway, this really sucks that Peavy is on the White Sox. AL pitchers are supposed to go over to the NL and dominate, not the other way around. It's going to be frustrating watching the Twins flail away against him.
2. Phil Mickelson. Well this was pretty unexpected. I thought Mickelson was essentially done for the year after the whole double cancer issue, and his play was showing it, but he came up huge and won the Tour Championship this weekend. He didn't have a finish in the top-25 in the five tournaments since the US Open, and started slowly this weekend with a 73 (+3) on Thursday, but he got better each day, closing it out 67-66-65, good enough for nine under par and a three shot win over a Tiger, not to mention an extra $1.35 million in the bank. Tiger ended up the winner of the $10 mil and the Fed Ex Cup, but this is a good win for Phil not only to build on, but to remind everybody that he's still the second best golfer in the world. I'm thinking 2010 might end up being a big year for him.
3. South Florida. Huge win over #18 Florida State on Saturday in Tallahassee, fueled by two major parts - QB B.J. Daniels and their defense, particularly the defensive line. The Bulls defense held the Seminoles to just 7 points and 16 rushing yards in their 17-7 upset, while sacking FSU QB Christian Ponder five times, forcing (and recovering) four fumbles, and putting so much pressure on the QB that FSU had to abandon anything down field. Daniels is an even better story - making his first career start, replacing four-year starter Matt Grothe who is now out for the season with an injury. Not only that, the Seminoles recruited Daniels but told him they wanted him as a WR, not as a QB, but he certainly showed them, tossing for 215 yards and 2 scores while rushing for 124 yards. It was the first time since 1986 FSU as allowed an opposing QB to run for over 100 yards, and is the first win over Florida's big three schools for the Bulls. I have a feeling they had a good time that night.
4. Zack Greinke. Seeing as the Twins' were fortunate enough to miss Mr. Greinke all season long, I never really got to see him pitch. Now that I have, holy dear god. This guy is ridiculous. His fastball is in the upper mid-nineties and tails about a foot, his curve falls off a cliff, and his change had guys lunging like Cuddyer after a slider in the dirt, but I'm talkiing good hitters like Kubel and Span. He shut down the Twins Sunday, and his season numbers are now a 16-8 record, a 2.06 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP, and he's either first or second in every meaningful pitching category. Honestly, him losing the Cy Young might be a bigger travesty than Mauer losing the MVP. This one is a true test of how stupid award voters are, which makes me very nervous for Greinke. Here's hoping they make the right choice. Oh, and just for kicks, his ERA in September is 0.35. No lie.
5. Greg Lewis. That catch was sick. Absolutely gorgeous. I'll admit, when the Vikes picked up Lewis my reaction was to make a dismissive wanking motion, but it turns out I was dead wrong. Favre is the hero here, no doubt, for a great play on that finale as well as for leading the team on the game winning drive - one which T-Jax couldn't have pulled off - but if Lewis doesn't make that ridiculous catch that's the ball game, the Vikes are 2-1, and everybody is freaking out and wondering if the team sucks now. And speaking of sucks, it really sucks that Frank Gore is hurt. Not just because he is on my fantasy team either. Ok just kidding. That's pretty much the whole reason.
Here is Lewis's catch. If you haven't seen it, you need to watch it. If you have, are you telling me you don't want to see it again?
WHO SUCKED
1. Ole Miss. I had no idea Ole Miss was ranked #4 in football. I thought the only time they were good was when Eli Manning was slinging the pill all those years back and that they had faded back into mediocrity. Apparently not so, but they may be heading that way after laying an absolute egg and losing 16-10 to the unranked Gamecocks of South Carolina on Thursday. After looking into it, it turns out that this is the highest ranking the Rebels have had since 1970, and also that their QB, Jevan Snead is thought of as one of the best QBs in college football. He certainly didn't play like it, putting up a Jake Delhomme of a day, completing just 7 of 21 passes for the game and leading the Rebs on a drive of more than 49 yards just once. Oh well, another top 5 teams bites it. Maybe this will help get a non-BCS team like Boise into the championship game. Plus, I finally get to post this picture of Ole Miss chicks I've been holding onto.
2. Cal. Yikers, there isn't a font big enough to post this OOF, an embarrassing, emasculating, and disembowling loss 42-3 against the terrible Oregon Ducks. The Bears scored first, going up 3-0, but the the Ducks reeled of 42 unanswered on their way to gaining more than double the yards of Cal. Jahvid Best, who you probably remember shredding the Gophers, gained just 65 yards. What's weird is that Cal didn't really even turn the ball over - just one fumble - they just couldn't do anything. They had the ball 14 times and couldn't muster a single drive over 50 yards; the only reason they even scored was because Oregon fumbled the opening kickoff. Just wow. Just a horrid performance on both sides of the ball.
3. Tampa Bay. Guess how many yards Tampa Bay gained Sunday against the Giants. Nevermind, it's impossible to even guess - it's 86. 86 yards. Eighty-six. And that's the entire game, mind you, not just a half or a quarter or a drive. Byron Leftwich, Tampa's QB and the guy I just picked up to be my backup QB, completed just seven of 16 attemps, for a huge total of 22 yards and a pick before being pulled for Josh Johnson who I have never heard of. Johnson was much more effective, completing four of ten for 36 yards, and also rushing once for a gain of 15. Funny thing about that 15 yard gain is that it made Johnson the leading rusher for the Bucs on the day. That vaunted three-headed monster at RB of Earnest Graham, Cadillac Williams, and Derrick Ward racked up a grand total of 13 yards, with Caddy leading the way with eight. Needless to say, they scored 0 points and are starting to look like they're going to give the Rams, Browns, and Raiders a run for that first overall pick in 2010, or as I like to call it, "The Sam Bradford Sweepstakes."
4. Jamarcus Russell. Remember when the Raiders took Russell first overall in the 2007 draft and everybody was like "Dude, what? This guy isn't a first overall type. There's way better guys like, oh, say Adrian Peterson available. If you really need a QB, trade down and take Brady Quinn at least. Good god, you're not really going to take J-Russ first are you?" Well, it keeps looking more and more like everybody was right. Russell laid his latest bomb on Sunday, completing 12-21 passes for a grand total of 61 yards (and 2 picks). That's five yards per completion. Five. I don't even know how that is possible. I wish I would have watched this game. Was it a series of shovel passes? Failed screen after failed screen? I'm stumped. That gave him a QB rating of 22.6, which will really drag down his season rating of 46.6 coming into the game. The best part? He's making north of $16 million this year. Awesome.
5. Francisco Liriano. Let's just go ahead and shut it down guys, it's over for Franky. In case you missed it, he decided he didn't even want to get out of the second inning against KC on Sunday, mainly because he once again refused to throw strikes and when he did people like frickin' Yuniesky Betancourt hit it eight billion miles. He needs to work his ass off this winter and figure something out, because his career is about thisclose to being over right now. Assuming he doesn't pitch again this season (please god), his final numbers are 5-13 with an ERA of 5.88 and a WHIP of 1.56. I don't have the time or inclination right now to get further into his numbers (Sidler, you still alive?), but things really aren't good. He's like the Jamarcus Russell of pitchers.
So that'll do it. Honorable mention for sucking to Terrell Owens, who didn't have a catch yesterday because he's gay.
I am off to the Detroit City tomorrow, and will be spending two nights in the toilet bowl of america - including one night when I'll be at Comerica Park to no doubt watch the Twins lose. For now I leave you with this awesome picture of Baby Dawger and WonderbabyTM.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
COLLEGE HOOPS PREVIEW: The SEC
Fear not, there is still time for me to do all the previews I had planned, and we continue today with the SEC, a conference, I'm sad to say, which looks like it will be down, down, down this season. Honestly, after Tennessee there really isn't a very good in the bunch, but I'll be brave and take a look anyway.
1. Tennessee
I was big on them last year, and still believe they are the clear class of the conference despite heavy loses including Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, and Ramar Smith (kicked off the team due to "substance abuse.") Plenty remains, especially former Hawkeye Tyler Smith and 6-7 guard JP Prince. I love Prince's game, and think with most of the guard scoring gone he can kick up his game and really step forward this year. Freshman Scottie Hopson (#5 on Rivals Top 150) is supposed to be out of this world, though I'm hoping for a nice Dennis Hopson flat top. Their only weakness is in the front court, where just Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism are worth mentioning, and undersized. A handful of talented freshmen could help.
2. LSU
Three years ago in the final four, and then two years of crap, but the Tigers look to be on the rise again. The biggest reasons for optimism are returning guard and leading SEC scorer Marcus Thornton, who broke 35 points three times last season, and the return of injured forward Tasmin Mitchell, who missed all but three games last year with an injury. Add in solid guards Garrett Temple and Terry Martin and underrated center Chris Johnson, who looked very good in a game I saw last year but I don't remember who against, and LSU looks to be the best of the rest.
3. Florida
The Gators are a lot of people's picks to win the SEC, but I'm not quite buying it - although I think they'll be in the NCAA bid hunt. Nick Calathes is an excellent all around player (he reminds me a lot of Mike Miller), but there just isn't much else here that really impresses me. Jai Lucas and Walter Hodge are good guards, but Hodge is kind of blah and Lucas needs a lot of work. There isn't much in the paint, and even though they have two highly touted prospects coming in Eloy Vargas (#26) and Kenny Kadji (#27), it sounds like they both need more muscle and could get pushed around. Look for sleeper freshman forward Allan Chaney to make a big impact.
4. Mississippi
Remember how Ole Miss was on fire at the beginning of last season and looked like they were on their way to a huge year, but then tanked towards the end and finished up by missing the NCAA tournament? That probably sucked for them. They'll probably be a bubble team again this year, led by super sophomore point guard Chris Warren (not the old Seattle RB) and a pair of swingman types in Eniel Polynice (Olden's son?) and David Huertas. Warren is a stud and the other two guards can score, but there is essentially no front court presence whatsoever. 6-9 Freshman Terrence Henry (#65 Rivals) is going to have to contribute immediately for the Rebels to have success this year.
5. Kentucky
Patrick Patterson is an absolute beast, assuming he's all healed up from the ankle injury that kept him out at the end of last season, but Kentucky has a lot to replace. The loss of guards Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford not only takes away a lot of points (33.8 ppg between them) but also leaves the Cats without an established ball handler. Junior Michael Porter will get a chance, but he's more the back up type. It could fall on a couple of wing players, freshmen DeAndre Liggins (#28) and transfer Kevin Galloway to take on a more point foward type of roll. Maybe we can trade them Kevin Payton.
6. Alabama
At this point it's a crapshoot between a mess of teams, and Alabama comes first alphabetically so I guess the Crimson Tide is my pick for fifth. The have a decent returning player in small forward Alonzo Gee, although looking at his game log it's easy to see why magazines call him "mercurial" and "enigmatic." He scored 32 against Florida and 27 against Tennessee last season, but then 1 against Arkansas and 4 against Ole Miss with just 2 and 3 shot attempts. Wacko. If Ronald Steele is recovered from major knee surgeries and is back to his old form, and freshman Jamychal Green (#21) is as good as advertised they'll be decent. Otherwise they'll suck.
7. Vanderbilt
Still an awesome home floor, but the Commodores come crashing back to earth a bit this year following two very good seasons with the loss of three starters, including Shan Foster, SEC Player of the Year. There is hope for the future, however, as Vandy snagged four top 100 players this season, and have former PJS favorite Festus Ezeli coming off his redshirt season. Their ability to play right away, along with the continued development of center A.J. Ogilvy (think Aaron Gray from Pitt) will determine their success.
8. Mississippi State
I was a big fan of this team last year, and they didn't disappoint by getting to the Sweet 16, but there is a lot gone, and I mean a lot. Three double digits scorers (Ben Hansbrough - 10.5, Jamont Gordon - 17.2, Charles Gordon - 17.4) are going to be tough to replace, but at least they have defensive machine and triple double getter guy Jarvis Varnado back. Varnado led the nation in blocks with 4.6 per game, and recorded a triple double in points, rebounds, and blocks against Kentucky in a game I watched in a Dallas bar with 10/12/10, and came close on two other occasions (9/9/10 and 8/7/10). Watching a guy like that makes me long for the days of what I hoped Antoine Broxsie would be. There's not much else here, though I guess the boringly named Barry Stewart is ok.
9. South Carolina
Remember when Dave Odom was a hot coach at Wake Forest? He probably should have capitalized on that fame and gotten some big money, because after sucking for a bunch of years with no Tim Duncan, Randolph Childress, or Rusty LaRue he was canned and a new coach is installed at SC who I've never heard of. Much like most of his players. Ok, I know Devan Downey is a terror at point guard from his days at Cincinnati, and Zam Frederick can score form his days at Georgia Tech. I don't know any other Gamecocks because they have always been a boring team who sucked and it was hilarious when they're totally overrated ripoff of Lethal Weapon 3 lost to Coppin State that year they were a #2 seed.
10. Auburn
This program just can't seem to get going, and the little bit of optimism will probably be crushed by the first weekend of SEC play. They have a good core coming back, but this is the same group that hasn't as much as made the NIT in their time together. Returning guards Raheem Barrett, Quantez Robertson, and Dewayne Reed are a nice perimeter grouping, and help take the defensive focus off top player Korvotney Barber, the teams leading scorer who missed most of last season due to injury. He's just 6-7, and is the sole contributing big man in the lineup. Add to that the best two incoming players for the Tigers are guards, and you are looking at a huge ole mess, whose upside is probably the NIT bubble.
11. Georgia
Is this still the Jim Harrick effect? When are these guys going to be good again? Yes, they made the tournament last year, but that was because of their miracle run in the SEC tournament, not because of any sustained success (they were 4-12 in conference last year). Additionally, they have basically nobody back from that squad, and not a whole lot in the pipeline. Right now I'm wondering how I don't have these guys ranked dead last.
12. Arkansas
Oh yeah, this is why. The Razorbacks were the most disappointing team for me last season, falling well short of expectations due in part to a lackluster performance from potential superstar Patrick Beverly. Well, they won't have to worry about that this season, because Beverly was kicked off the team for undisclosed reasons and has chosen to play in Europe this season. And he's not the only subtraction, as Arkansas lost essentially the whole team to graduation. The Razorbacks return just 10.6 points and 5.9 rebounds per game from last season, so the whole lineup is wide open. Good news for familiar name Courtney Fortson, the headliner of a not terrible class for Arkansas. Fortson is #50 on the Rivals Top 150, and is joined by three other incoming players on the list. Add in JuCo Montrell McDonald (#20 JuCo player) and redshirter Michael Sanchez (#111 last season) and there is hope for the future. But absolutely none for this season.
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