These MLB Playoffs are Pretty Neat, Guys (+ new Gopher BBall Commit)

Taking a break from the NCAA Hoops Previews to weight on on the baseball playoffs, an awesome collection of series so far.  I'm enjoying the hell out of this, and it helps that I have a ton of money down on futures (Tigers to win AL, Cards to win both NL and World Series not to mention loads of props on every game).  Seriously, it would be great if there was some kind of player rewards card for people who make way too many bets.

Speaking of, check out this information for more on players reward card.  Before I talk hardball, however, I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention that the Gopher hoops team picked up another recruit for 2013 in power forward Alex Foster, joining Alvin Ellis as a future Gopher.  Foster is a 6-8 skinny kid from Chicago who was thought of as one of the best players in Chicago way back when he was in 8th grade, but who has since tailed off a bit and is ranked by ESPN as a middle-of-the-road 3-star recruit (his other offers were from Tennessee and Nebraska, again according to ESPN).  The good news here is that he is super athletic, and with that pedigree (yes back to 8th grade but still) offers considerable upside.  Like Ellis he has been a target of the Gophers for quite some time, which means that even if Tubby isn't signing the greatest players he is at least able to get the guys he really wants to sign here.  Good, not great, signing, but at least things are moving in the right direction again, not to mention setting up a regular pipeline to Chicago (Ellis is also a Chicago kid) can only be a positive.

Also, quick, the reports on my new favorite Gopher Charles Buggs are in from the "Midnight" Madness scrimmage last Friday and by all accounts HE.  IS.  AWESOME.  Led all scorers with 10 pts on 4-4 shooting including 2-2 from 3 and grabbed 2 rebounds, plus was apparently one of the more impressive dunkers in the dunk contest?  Are you kidding me?  He's everything I always knew I always wanted.  I seriously can't wait.  We goin' Sizzla.  

Ok, now on to baseball and I'll start with the Wild Card.  From day one I was in favor of the change to two wild card teams per league with a 1-game playoff and I'm pretty sure I'm right.  I understand the criticisms many people had such as complaining that they were just trying to manufacture drama, that anything random can happen in a 1-game series so it was meaningless, and so on.  But the fact is, winning the Wild Card the last few years was basically the same as winning your division.  Other than not having home field advantage (and one division winner wouldn't have it anyway) and playing the best team (if that team happened to not be from your division) what was the difference?  Basically nil.  Now?  Winning the Wild Card puts you at a drastic disadvantage compared to a division winner because if you get hit with a bad call (Atlanta) or run into a hot pitcher (Texas) you're done.  I think it's awesome and if you don't I hope you get a stomach parasite.

The sucky thing about the Division Series is we lost all the interesting teams.  Only Oakland, Baltimore, Cincy, and Washington haven't been regular playoff fixtures in recent times, and all four lost.  I was glad, actually, to see Washington get bounced just because their decision to shut down Strasburg irked me so irksomely, but I would have loved to see Baltimore, Cincinnati, and/or Oakland advance just because it's more interesting than watching New York and Detroit again.  That being said, how great was it that every single series went the full five games?  And it wasn't just that they went down to sudden death, but how it all happened.  If even one of these scenarios happened this would have been an awesome round of the playoffs:

• St. Louis falls behind 6-0 in the third inning of Game 5 and are down to their final strike twice before rallying for four in the ninth to win their sixth straight elimination game.
• The underdog Orioles refuse to die and push the hated Yankees to the final game with two games going extra innings (back-to-back 12 and 13 inning affairs) and three total one-run games.
• Oakland scares the crap out of Detroit by winning games 3 & 4 after having been down 2-0, leading to Justin Verlander throwing one of the best games in playoff history (in Oakland no less) to advance the Tigers.
• The Giants lose the first two games at home, then win the next three in Cincinnati to knock out the Reds.

So yeah, it sucks that none of interesting teams are still left, but there's still plenty of interesting things going on here in the LCS's, including the incredibly enjoyable collapse of the Yankees.   Granderson and A-Rod are striking out at a World Record pace, but even they aren't hurting the team as much as Robinson Cano (who not only hasn't hit but also made a game killing error (I know it wasn't technically an error because you can't assume a double play but that was an error)) and Nick Swisher (who has been so awful both at the plate and in the field that he's definitely played his way out of New York and may have cut his contract in half both in terms of money and duration).  This has been great in so many ways, and I'm so glad the Yankees hit like crap in the Orioles series as well as this one, because otherwise this would be so set-up to add to the legend of Jeter.  This would all be blamed on them not having "The Captain" and everyone would be in boner mode.

Now I can see this series going one of two ways.  The best way would be that Justin Verlander completely shuts them in game 3 in near no-hitter fashion, they continue to desperately scramble at the plate and resort to crazy tactics (such as hit-and-running with Raul Ibanez and his Matthew LeCroy like speed) to try to score any runs at all and they end up getting swept while the world rejoices.  Or, because the Yankees are some evil demon and everyone knows that demons are notoriously hard to kill, they will somehow manage to destroy Verlander and end up winning this series in 7 games.  I know that would suck, but in another way it would be good to get to root against the Yankees for another series.  I'm still rooting for them to get swept here though, because they are dicks.

As for the NL, how freaking sweet must it be to be a Cards fan?  All they ever do is win.  In 2006 they won just 83 games but played in a crappy division so they won a playoff berth where they managed to beat two superior teams, setting up a World Series against the massively favored Detroit Tigers.  Naturally the Cards won by somehow getting the Tigers to make 8 errors in 5 games and holding them to a .199 batting average despite pitching dudes like Anthony Reyes, making them the worst team (record-wise) to ever win a World Series.  In 2011 they again made the series against the Rangers after qualifying for the Wild Card on the final day of the regular season and fell behind 3-2 and were twice down to their final strike before rallying to win and then won game 7 to take another World Series.  Now they were basically about to be eliminated by the Nationals but somehow turned it around to win that one as well.

I mean, enough is enough, right?  Stop rubbing it in, guys.  They're like the anti-Twins with their postseason play, not to mention that they lost the best hitter of the last 10 years to free agency, lost their starting first baseman (Lance Berkman) and starting shortstop (Rafael Furcal) to injury, and got just 20 starts from Jaime Garcia and 3 from Chris Carpenter, yet here they are.  I like the Giants and all, even without the usual Lincecum, but how can anybody fight that Redbird mojo?  It's a true law of nature like water or dinosaurs.  Sorry Giants, but you can't fight against dinosaurs.

Five Best Trade Deadline Trades

1.  Pirates acquire Travis Snider from Toronto for Brad Lincoln.  This one doesn't get a whole ton of play in the media because it's not as sexy as a lot of the other trades that went down and if it does it's always mentioned as a "trade of two failed prospects, both of whom were drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft.  That may be true, but that doesn't mean Pittsburgh didn't get a steal here.  The Pirates have gotten nothing out of their left-fielders this year (mainly Alex Presley), with a combined .198 average, and Snider just so happens to play left field.  The Pirates also have an excellent bullpen with a combined 2.81 ERA out of the pen this year, so although Lincoln has pitched well this year they aren't exactly going to notice his loss.  Then there's their performance.  Before settling in the pen this year Lincoln was tried as a starter twice, finishing 2010 with a 6.66 ERA (9 starts) and 2011 with a 4.72 (8 starts).  He was always a starter in the minors, and outside of 13 double-A starts in 2009 (when he was already 24) and two AAA starts this year he's never posted an ERA below 4.00 at any level.  Safe to say he's a middle reliever, and as I've discussed here a lot middle relievers pretty much grow on trees.  Lincoln was worth little.  Snider, on the other hand, with five plus .300 average seasons in seven in the minors with good plate discipline and good power.  He also hit .300 his first year in the majors (.301 in 80 PAs) and hit 14 homers in 319 PAs in 2010, but he's battled a lot of injuries and been on the DL quite a bit.  He's also 3 years younger than Lincoln.  Basically the Pirates traded a player that plays a position they don't need who you pretty much already know his ceiling for a player at a position they need who has shown promise and if could stay healthy still has the potential to be an impact player.  Great trade. 

2.  Cubs acquire Arodys Vizcaino (and Jaye Chapman) from Atlanta for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson.  The Braves acquired Vizcaino in the trade where they shipped Javier Vazquez to the Yankees in 2009 when he was the #16 prospect in New York's system.  Since then he's ranked #5, #5, and #2 while in the Braves' system, and is now headed to the Cubs (along with a top-25ish reliever guy).  All they had to give up was a journeyman outfielder in Johnson and a back-of-the-rotation starter who, literally, anybody could have had for about $5 million this offseason in Maholm.  The downside of this trade for Chicago is nobody gives a shit.  Maholm is not going to develop into a Cy Young candidate, so no matter what happens the Cubs aren't hurt.  The upside is Vizcaino, who has #2 type stuff.  For a team that's been pretty smart about moves the Braves were awfully antsy this year, trying to give Randall Delgado (#3 prospect) to the Cubs first for Ryan Dempster before he blocked it and then following it up by trading prospect #2.  Epstein has actually done a nice job dealing with the hellhole that is Chicago's roster, and at some point he's going to find a taker for Soriano.  I have to admit, I have a feeling that nerd will get the best of that one as well.

3.  Angels acquire Zack Greinke from Milwaukee for Jean Segura, Ariel Pena, and John Hellweg.  The Angels certainly didn't underpay, giving up three prospects ranked in their top 15 but getting Greinke, and maybe more importantly not letting the Rangers or Yankees get him, will be a key to the Angels postseason success this year.  This move sets up their rotation as Jered Weaver, Greinke, C.J. Wilson, and Dan Haren, and if Haren wasn't having a pretty tough year I'd say that's one of the best rotation I'd seen in a while.  Certainly they have an edge when compared to the other contenders, with Haren their fourth starter compared to guys like Phil Hughes, Zach Britton, Clay Buchholz, Phil Humber, Doug Fister, Travis Blackley, Derek Holland, Jeremy Hellickson, and Brett Cecil - and they're better than almost every other team at the #2 and #3 spots, too.  The Giants showed in 2010 that pitching can win championships, and their rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez wasn't as good as what the Angels have now put together.  In fact, I just talked myself into a small bet on them to win the world series at 6-1.  Take advantage man, take advantage.

4.  Yankees acquire Ichiro Suzuki from Seattle for D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar.  Mostly I like this one because the Yankees' risk is basically nil.  Farquhar is nowhere near a top prospect list and has already been traded 3 times and waived twice in his four year career and has an upside of a 7th inning reliever, while Mitchell is a meh starter who is in his third year at AAA at age 25.  For that low price they get a guy who, although he's been on the decline the last two years, did hit over .300 for 10 straight years, and a guy who agreed to hit low in the lineup, move positions, and sit against at least some lefties.  Ichiro wanted out (there is a theory he's just been bored the last two years playing for such a shitty team), Seattle wanted him out so they wouldn't have to deal with the headache of resigning/not resigning him, and so the Yankees swoop in with almost no risk.  Their production out of their left-fielders (Raul Ibanez/Andruw Jones) has been brutal, so if Ichiro plays as he has all year it's a small upgrade.  But if the move to New York and a contender lights a fire under his ass and he plays like pre-2011 Ichiro?  Look out.  And all for the cost of two non-prospects. 

5.  Royals acquire J.C. Sulbaran and Donnie Joseph from Cincinnati for Jonathan Broxton.  This is the exact kind of trade the Twins should have been making.  Broxton was only signed to a one-year deal, the Royals clearly weren't going anywhere this year, and several teams had interest so the Royals leveraged that and got the most they could.  They picked up Joseph, a top-25ish type prospect in the Reds system who has been a nearly unhittable closer in both AA and AAA this year, and Sulbaran, ranked 12th among Reds' prospects and a starter whose numbers are pedestrian but Baseball America said he had the best curveball in the entire Reds' system.  Sulbaran gives them another young arm as they try to figure out the whole pitching situation as they make the alleged run towards a division title everyone is telling us to expect, and Joseph can probably start in the big leagues next season so they have some flexibility with Soria coming off injury and owed $8 million (team option).  Good trade, and exactly the kind of thing the Twins could have/should have done.

I also think Jeremy Guthrie is a good pick-up for them.  I mean he sucks, but you know he's going to give you 200 semi-ok innings and you need at least one guy like that if you're going to be a contender.  Of course they have to resign him, find more talented pitchers to put around him, and then dudes have to hit to turn them into a contender, but like Leo Marvin said, "Babysteps."

Monday Musings

So dumb.  I actually had a Week in Review about 90% done and all typed up.  I saved it before bed last night with the intent of finishing it off this morning, except when I went there it was gone.  Completely gone.  So I'm just going to do this thing instead where I type stuff that you end up reading for some reason.

-  Good win for the Gophers Sunday winning in Penn State.  It's not so much a great win because Penn State is any good (spoiler:  they aren't), but more because losing at PSU right after rescuing their season would be exactly the kind of thing the Gophers would do.  Also I should say that when I say the Gophers "rescued" their season after beating Indiana all I mean by that is they shifted the season from a epic flameout to what will probably end up being a disappointing season, but they still have a chance to do something at least.  So yeah, I'm not exactly throwing a party just yet but at least they managed to beat Penn State.  God I was so convinced they were going to lose.  Thank god I'm stupid.

Now the Gophers are 2-4 in Big 10 play, and at an absolute minimum they're going to need to get to 9 wins to even get within sniffing distance of an NCAA bid, especially because Virginia Tech - their one hope for a quality out of conference win - keeps sucking.  With 12 games to go that means they need to win at least seven more.  Here are the easy wins left on the schedule:  Nebraska at home.  That's it.  Everything else is going to at least be a little tough; HOME: Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, and Nebraska.  AWAY: Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.  Yikes.  They're gonna be favored in what, 3 games?  Maybe four?  It's long ass road to those 9 wins, and I'm not even sure 9 would get there.  Looking like another long year.  I need a vacation.

-  Elsewhere in a rare move the Twins made that I actually like they signed reliever Joel Zumaya to a one year deal for $800k (with incentives that can double that), but it's a non-guaranteed deal so if his elbow (which you may remember exploded in a game against the Twins) isn't all the way back they can just cut him easy peasy lemon squeezy.  Good deal.

He's been hurt a lot since bursting on the scene in his rookie year of 2006 - he hasn't thrown more than 39 innings in a season since then - but if he can somehow stay healthy he could end up being a real bargain.  Zumaya has always been a flamethrower (his average fastball for his career has been 98.5 mph, topping at an average of 99 his last two years and he's struck out a batter an inning for his career) and like many of that ilk he's struggled with his control.  2010, however, was different.  Although he was still throwing hard and still striking people out he also had gotten the wildness under control, slicing his walk rate basically in half and was developing into a dominant reliever pre-injury.  Big fan of the signing.

-  Sticking with baseball, why the hell would you trade a 23-year old pitcher who already has one of the best fastballs in the league and has already proven himself to be a #2 type pitcher and if he ever fully developed a second pitch he could end up a full on ace.  I know Jesus Montero is thought to be one of the best hitting prospects in baseball and he definitely hit well when he was up with the Yankees last season but it was just 69 plate appearances and how is that all the Mariners got for Michael Pineda?

If Seattle was dead set on trading Pineda and his 171 high quality innings Montero would have been a nice centerpiece to the deal, but there should have been at least a couple more prospects thrown in.  Now Seattle has a nice middle of the order future with Dustin Ackley, Montero, and Justin Smoak but they're pitching is suddenly pretty thin again behind Felix.  And the Yankee rotation just went from crazy shaky to Sabathia, Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda (who they signed like, 3 minutes after making this trade), Ivan Nova (who finished ahead of Pineda in the ROY voting last year), and their choice of Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, or A.J. Burnett.  You know the worst part?  And of those three pitchers the Yankees get to choose from as their #5 would be the Twins' ace.  I'm going to go lick a car battery now.

- No matter how disappointing the Gophers' hoops season might be to you at least it's not as bad as what's going on with Pitt.  The Panthers have been dominant in their own way over the last several seasons and were expecting more of the same this year, starting the year ranked #11, but things haven't exactly gone according to plan.  An 0-3 week with a 20 point home loss to Rutgers leaves Pitt in dead last in the Big East at 0-6 and currently riding a 7-game losing streak that started with a home loss to Wagner.  Wagner!  There's no doubt the Gophers' season has been a bit of a disappointment but it's nothing like what Pitt fans are going through.  This year Pitt is hands down the most disappointing team in the NCAA and it isn't remotely close.  They're just like The Phantom Menace.

- What's more sweeter than a Packer season ending early?  Nothing.  Absolutely nothing.  Suck it, Packers. 

Monday's Musings - 10/11/2011

Don't read this.  No, seriously, I mean it.  I don't know when it happened but somehow I've become painfully unfunny lately. This blog is brutal.  For inspiration I read through some of my posts from a year or two ago and they were pretty good, but not only that they inspired some pretty awesome comments that led to awesome conversations in the comment section.  Now?  Nothing.  I've got nothing.  This is going to be terrible.

-  First off the big news is that the Lynx won the WNBA championship.  Here are my thoughts on that:

-  Next up I suppose we need to discuss the Vikings, despite the fact that Don McNabb has somehow managed to combine a noodle arm with the inability to throw the ball anywhere near where he's trying to.  I mean seriously, have you ever seen a worse QB than McNabb?  Have you ever, for kicks, decided to try to throw a curve ball when you play catch with a football?  And it doesn't actually curve or anything, it just goes through the air with a complete wobble, about as far from a spiral as possible?  That's what McNabb's ball is looking like these days.  The Vikings have no chance to win more than 4 games this year unless Christian Ponder is the next Andy Dalton.  Poor AP.  He's wasted like Rico Tucker was wasted that one year.

See these blast points?  Too precise for Donovan McNabb.

-  Speaking of the Gophers, once again the football team got waxed in embarrassing fashion.  Here are my thoughts on that:

-  Also in the shitty football team department, how about that "Dream Team."  In case you missed it that's how the Eagles were being described this off season after signing Asomugha, Steve Smith (the bad one), and Vince Young.  Now they're 1-4 after getting beat by the Bills, and wait what?  Somehow signing Vince Young is supposed to be a good thing?  Sometimes a guy who was great in college and sucks in the pros just sucks.  He doesn't always need a change of scenery or a new scheme or whatever - Vince Young just sucks.  And so do the Eagles apparently.  Who knew that just assembling a bunch of talent with no real regard for how it fits together wouldn't work out   Too much crazy.

-  Speaking of crazy, are you watching this Terra Nova show?  Fuckin' dinosaurs, man.  I don't really know what the plot is yet, but next on House:  some crazy disease nobody can figure out, a crazy doctor who plays by his own rules, and a plot twist.  Sounds spicy!

-  You know what's sweet?  Winning an over 9 runs bet in a game that was tied 3-3 in extra innings when the home team hits a walk-off grand slam.  That, my friends, is luck.

It's like the luck of the Irish only I'm not Irish so you figure it out

-  Anybody still in a survivor pool for the NFL?  If you are it means you're either incredibly smart, and knew not to trust Eli Manning even in a home game against a horrid defense (unlikely, but possible) and also knew that Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst would combine to play an efficient, solid game with few mistakes (impossible), or you're stupid.  So yes, I'm telling you if you're still alive you're stupid, because the Giants were the obvious play and not taking them meant you trying to be cute which usually doesn't work out.  So if you're still alive congratulations on being dumb and lucky.  You suck.

-  So what exactly is the deal here with the MLB playoffs, we're going to go from an awesome Divisional round to a shitty Championship round?  Actually I guess we shouldn't really worry yet since it really doesn't matter if the early games are blowouts or are close, just as long as we get to games 6 and especially 7 and they're close it'll be entertaining.  How awesome was last round?  Three Game 5s that all ended as one run affairs including one that went to extra innings?  AND the Yankees lost?  It was a little slice o' heaven.  I shed a tear and I swear as A-Rod was whiffing on that Valverde heater I could hear Hallelujah playing in the back ground.  With the song and the crying it was just like when Marisa Cooper died.


Anyway, I thought Girardi made one of the absolutely most brilliant managerial moves I've ever seen, but then followed it up with a classic bit over over-managing.  First, his pull of Nova after just two innings and 31 pitches was just a great move.  Nova had given up two first inning home runs and a double in the second, but he'd also struck out two batters and retired the last three batters he'd faced.  Sounds like an ok beginning, but watching the game you could tell he didn't really have it.  Most managers would let the pitcher go another inning and try to get him through the fifth.  Girardi saw Nova didn't have his A game and yanked him immediately.  Great move.

Of course, much like that damn overconfident hare who somehow lost to the turtle, Girardi thought he was awesome and made one too many moves, pulling Phil Hughes after just an inning and a third despite the fact that he was dealing but had just given up a hit.  That didn't come back to bite him immediately, but Hughes was looking like he could have pitched deep into the game and suddenly Girardi had to really stretch his bullpen.  That included pitching C.C. Fatbathia on short rest and he eventually blew the game.  I'm just really curious how things could have worked out if he left Hughes in - and he should have.

Lost in all this, of course, is that Fister (Fister?  I hardly know 'er) was looking amazing, which is no real surprise because he's been a whole different pitcher since being traded to Detroit.  His Ks/9 jumped by 50% from around 6 in his career with Seattle to 9 per 9 innings once he came to the Tigers and was suddenly completely unhittable and looked it that night.  I can't help but wonder if it's because of Leyland.  Maybe Seattle was like the Twins and were trying to force him to pitch to contact or some similar retardation and Leyland just cut him loose.  It's possible and you damn well know it.  Why do you love Gardy so much, sicky?

-  Speaking of the Twins, I'm pretty sure I'm done with those season wrap-ups I was doing.  In my defense I got through 3 positions so that's pretty good I think considering how shit-boxy this team was.  And all the positions left are depressing.  Middle infield?  Gross.  Starting pitching?  Vomit.  The bullpen?  Yuck.  I guess the outfield is semi-interesting, but mainly that's because of Ben Revere and Joe Benson.  Can Revere develop a little power or learn how to walk?  Either one of those would make him a legit big league leadoff hitter.  And can Benson become the five-tool stud he's purportedly potentially possible to be or is he going to end up moving to the middle of the country where he becomes a bouncer at the Double Deuce and starts up a fling with the local doctor while feuding with the local rich guy who kind of a dick?

Future Joe?

I don't know.  I mean, I guess it'll be a semi-interesting offseason with decisions to be made on several guys, but most of those decisions are going to be of the "offer a contract: yes/no" rather than trades which are way more fun.  Hopefully they do some interesting things and figure out how to get this team back on track.  God knows I'll be here.

Also, obviously, I learned how to caption photos that I post, so that's probably going to get run into the ground.

MLB Playoff Preview

When TRE, from the latest and greatest Gopher blog Still Got Hope? reached out to me to ask if I wanted to do a co-MLB playoff preview with him my first though was "jesus that sounds like work."  Then I remembered that I've seen TRE in real life and he's a gigantic monster man who would probably rip my arms out my sockets and beat me over the head with them wookie-style if I angered him, so I figured I better do it.

So here's the protocol - I'm previewing the AL, he's previewing the NL which works well for me because my knowledge of the NL is on par with Super Sioux Fan's knowledge of cooking - NOT ALL THAT MUCH.  Then we'd each write a paragraph in response to the other's original paragraph.

Will we agree?  Disagree?  Fight?  Will we come to blows?  TOO SOON TO TELL.  But it should be exciting.  My pants are already half-off in anticipation.

AMERICAN LEAGUE



TEXAS RANGERS vs. TAMPA RAYS  

DWG:  Classic match-up here of momentum vs. unstoppablenessittude.  The Ranger offense is really good at hitting and scoring, much like Bobby Brown, and really has no holes.  But that's the fun thing about good pitching, it creates those holes.  Tampa has the two best pitchers in this deal in Shields and Price, and in a short series sometimes that's all you need.  Evan Longoria is looking sexy and mashing baseballs, and the Rays have heaps of karma from playing the role of Will Hunting to the Sox Carmine Scarpaglia, and saving the world from the hoards of Boston douchefans that always come out of the woodwork for the playoffs.  THAT ROBAHT ANDINO IS WICKED GOOD!  This should be a dogfight, but I give the edge to pitching and karma.  Rays in Five.

TRE:  Evan Longoria is as good a hitter as he is a dreamboat.  On Wednesday he basically willed the Rays into the playoffs and it was amazing.  TREbro cried like a river when the Sox missed the playoffs. (he's a longtime fan, don't try and make sense of it)  TREbro's wife bombarded facebook with Red Sox propaganda too.  None of that could make Carl Crawford not suck extremely hard.

The Rays and Rangers did this dance last year and it took five games for the Rangers to take them down.  They're a year wiser and a year better.  Rangers noob Napoli had a monster second half (.383 AVG, .706 SLG) and co-noob Adrian Beltre has returned from the hamstring injury and has destroyed in September. (Player of the Month I guess!) Tampa may have a slight edge in starting pitching, but Texas has a TRE's head sized edge in the bullpen.  Especially with Ogando and Holland joining the pen for the playoffs.

Oops

DWG is right that the edge should go to pitching, but wrong in choosing Tampa for having the edge.  This series goes to the Rangers.  Ron Washington will do a head spin on that bald pate of his afterwards.  Verdict: Rangers in four.

 


NEW YORK YANKEES vs. DETROIT TIGERS

DWG:  Obviously nobody likes the Yankees, that's a universal law like water or dinosaurs, but the question is do the Tigers have enough to knock them off?  Both teams have a stone cold ace at the front of the rotation and a bunch of question marks to follow so game 1 is even more important than it usually is in a 5-game series.  Just like the Death Star, Justin Verlander has one weakness, and his is giving up home runs.  If that comes into play with the 230 foot right field fence in Yankee Stadium and a bunch of power-hitting lefties the Tigers could get shoved in a hole they can't climb out of, especially since Jim Leyland has already said he won't pitch Verlander on short rest in Game 4 even if Detroit is facing elimination (Sabathia is already slated for Game 4) which makes so little sense to me I'm convinced Leyland was replaced with Ron Gardenhire.  Easily the most difficult series to pick.   It's either Yankees in four or Tigers in five.  I say Detroit gets two wins from Verlander and squeaks one out somewhere else.  Tigers in five.

TRE:  I love Verlander and think he's the best pitcher in baseball.  All of the cool kids are saying that now, but if you ask Doctor Detroit, I've been saying this for awhile.  I get this feeling though that the Tigers believe too much.  Fans think Doug Fister is the new Bob Welch.  A lot rides on CC Sabathia.  Can that big SOB that was somehow robbed once on the street get the best of Verlander?  If he does, it's freaking over.  Doug Fistplay will curl up into the fetal postion.  The bad news for the Yankees is they're not playing the Twins.  Since 2002, they're 12-2 in ALDS games against the Twins and 5-12 against everyone else.  Last time I checked though, former Twin Delmon Young was batting in the 3-hole.  Even Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia can get Delmon out.  The Tigers are ready for this.  They're going to join the Twins in the slop bucket of AL Central victims by leg sweep.  Verdict: The Jeterses in three.

NATIONAL LEAGUE


ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

TRE:  The Cards snuck into the playoffs on the last day of the season. They were down 8.5 games from Atlanta on September first, but went 18-8 in the month and watched Atlanta piss the bed. The Phillies get an opponent that they struggled with in 2011; going 3-6 against them. It sounds like we'll see Roy Halladay against Kyle Lohse in game 1 and Cliff Lee against Edwin Jackson in game 2. So, that's basically 2-0 Phillies. Since this is a best of 5 series, the Cardinals are pretty much screwed at this point. I assume they'd throw Chris Carpenter in game 3 against Cole Hamels; perhaps on short rest. That might get them a win, but then they'd lose to Roy Oswalt in game 4 against Jaime Garcia. Matt Holliday has an injured hand/wrist and is unlikely to start the series, but Allen Craig has played well of late. In my opinion the Cardinals lineup just doesn't stack up with the Phillies. It's basically Pujols and The Big Puma and pray for HBP. The Phillies have a lineup that's solid from top to bottom and they even have some decent depth on their bench. I suppose that explains the franchise record 102 wins. Verdict: Phillies in four.


DWG:  Ok great, the Cards went 6-3 against the Phillies this year.  That's awesome and everything but I mean, come on.  Nobody really thinks the Cardinals can win, do they?  It's taking every ounce of restraint and personal responsibility I have to not put the largest wager of my lifetime down on the Phils to win this series at -300.  Then again, the last time I discounted a Cardinals team this badly they ended up winning the World Series after the Tigers pitchers took turns playing the smash hit game "Throw the ball into the dugout."  Still though, the Phil's worst pitcher (of four) is better than the best St. Louis can trot out there and outside of Pujols their second string offense might be better than the Cards' starters.  Phillies sweep.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

TRE:   This is an intriguing series and sadly will probably be the least watched due to market size. The Brewers have a solid lineup headed by my NL MVP choice Ryan Braun. Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks all bring a lot to the table as well. Casey McGehee took the year off, but I give him a break because he's bald and ugly like me.

The Brewers led the NL in homeruns and did it while posting a decent average, OBP and a relatively low strikeout total. They also brought in some pitching that doesn't blow goats. Shawn Marcum and Zack Grienke joined with Yovanni Gallardo to provide a solid top 3. Lefties Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson round out the rotation. They also have a solid bullpen with Saito and K-Rod joining Axford for the late innings.

Arizona also packs a pop with Justin Upton, Chris Young (the black one, not the tall dork from Princeton) and Miguel Montero being the core run producers. They also have a solid top 4 starters with Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders. This is a five game series to me. Kennedy went 21-4 and will likely start the series against Gallardo. I really dislike that the Diamondbacks abbreviate themselves with "D-Backs". That's a little too close to d-bags. Verdict: Brewers in five.

DWG:  I agree that this will be an interesting series because these teams are pretty evenly matched.  Milwaukee has more star power with Braun, Fielder, Greinke, and Weeks and seem more glamorous, or at least as glamorous as annything from dirty, dirty Wisconsin can be, but Arizona is a surprisingly good, and complete, team.  Kennedy, Hudson, Collmenter, and Saunders might not sound like much, but they're one of the best starting groups in the NL.  I know, I didn't believe it either, but every single one of them has an ERA under 3.70 and a WHIP under 1.32.  Not really a true ace in the group, sorry Kennedy but I'm not buying it yet, but that really plays well for them.  They can reasonably expect to hold Milwaukee to 3 runs per game, so all they have to do is score 4 runs three times in five games.  They have one of the highest scoring offenses in baseball, so that shouldn't be a problem, and Justin Upton is the Patrick Jane of baseball.  D-Bags in five and TRE is an idiot and a traitor.

MLB Preview: American League

After I won multiple awards for my NL preview yesterday, I couldn't very well ignore the American League, especially since that's all anybody around here cares about.  So that's what we got goin' down here tonight, a little American League chatter.  


Also I want to mention as a public service announcement that although the 5-8 Club is famous for their Juicy Lucys you shouldn't ignore the broasted chicken.  It's not quite as good as any random place at least 1 hour north of the cities (and the more norther the better), but for a city joint it's very good.  


Anyway, here you go.

 
AL EAST

1.  Boston Red Stockings.  There's a reason all thdork Red Sox fans are so excited for their team - they're going to be really god damn good.  They signed the top 2 free agent position players available who filled holes for them in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, have an excellent rotation 1-5, a bullpen good enough that they can ship Hideki Okajima to triple-A, and, lest you think their 3rd place finish last year means they're overrated, they still won 89 games and several key players (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis) missed substantial time last season. In short, no matter how much you hate them and their fans (and I do with one exception) this team is going to be a monster.  The shark move here would be to make sure and get Papelboner as your fantasy closer, since he's going to get a ridonkulous amount of save opps.

2.  New York Yankees.  They're lucky that the offense is loaded up because that rotation is brutal.  Sabathia is good, I guess, but AJ Burnett is terrible, Phil Hughes is a dandy, Freddy Garcia is dead, and Ivan Nova will be in AAA ball by June.  That said, they're going to be tough to beat and should win a lot of 8-6 ball games, plus with Soriano setting up for Rivera they essentially just have to outscore you through 7 innings.  Side note: if you look at the lineup there's absolutely no reason Derek Jeter should be hitting anything other than 8th or 9th.  Other than the intangibles of course.  And those piercing blue eyes.

3.  Tampa Bay Rays.  Whoever stocked up the Rays farm system did one hell of a job, because it seems no matter who leaves there is always a hot young prospect ready to step in, and that especially includes the pitching staff.  This year those guys will have to be dead on, because behind provens David Price and James Shields are a bunch of youngins - talented youngins in Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jeremy Hellickson - but young just the same.  Two other things:  1.  FREE DESMOND JENNINGS!  and 2.  Kyle Farnsworth as your closer?  Seriously?  I dropped them from #2 to #4 for that reason alone.  Then bumped them back to #3 because Evan Longoria is both awesome and sexy.

4.  Baltimore Orioles.  I feel bad for these guys, I really do.  After years of throwing good money after bad, making poor decisions, and decimating the farm system they're finally starting to do things right.  They got a solid manager (Buck Showalter), good young talent (Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta), with more on the way (Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman), and are signing reasonable free agents who make sense and fit with the roster (Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, and trading for JJ Hardy).  Really they're doing a lot right and in any other division they'd be a sleeper to win it.  Here, however, fourth place is their absolute upside.

5.  Toronto Blue Jays.  This is definitely a fun team if you like a youth movement - the oldest pitcher in the rotation is 26.  They also have fun prospects like LF Travis Snider and C JP Arencibia who are going to be handed starting jobs and told to run with them.  If the youth is good and crap factories Adam Lind and Aaron Hill - two of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball last year - can bounce back this team might be able to threaten for fourth place.  That being said, this team would be a contender in the AL Central.  Thank god the Twins are in such a shitty division.


AL CENTRAL

1.  Minnesota Twins.  Hey, speaking of the Twins being in a shitty division, here I am picking them to win again even though I'm not remotely impressed with this team.  If you're reading this you probably know everything you need to about the Twins so all I'm going to say is I hate hate hate hate hate the middle infield and I still don't understand the Hardy trade, but my biggest question is how they handled the whole Scott Diamond thing.  Trading Billy Bullock, he of the 150 strikeouts in 108 innings in two years at age 22 and the Twins second-round pick just TWO FUCKING YEARS AGO means that Diamond better be the best god damn reliever in history.   AGAGDASHKJ the season hasn't even started yet and I'm already mad.  Let's just move on.

2.  Detroit Tigers.  You know who I love this year?  Justin motherfuckin' Verlander.  He's been awesome the last several years, no doubt, but I think this is the year he goes from awesome to AWESOME.   I also love Austin Jackson, and I think if he can just have half of Delmon Young's plate discipline he's got super star written all over him, and the youngster SP duo of Scherzer and Porcello has got potential.  That's it that I like on that team because I hate everybody else including fat alcoholic and girl hair McGee.  I guess I don't hate Will Rhymes, but that's not because of his play (Punto-esque) but because of his sweet name.  If Snow had just called himself Will Rhymes Informer would have hit #1 on the charts.


3.  Chicago Gay Sox.  Ever have a player you love (Adam Dunn) who goes to a team you hate with every fiber of your being?  I always loved Mike Mussina and it broke my heart when he signed with the Yankees, but I never really really cared because it was AL East crap.  This time it's really going to test me.  I harbor no ill will towards Dunnsy right now, but I'm pretty sure the first time he takes a Nick Blackburn 88 mph heater 500 feet the other way (and you know it's coming) I'm pretty sure the hatred will rise up quickly.  Looking forward to the Twins facing Jesse Crain though, pretty sure we have some guys who will return that 500 foot favor.  Of course I'm assuming/hoping they got old Crain, not fancy new Crain from the second half of last season.  Because that guy was good.  Ah god dammit.  This is going to be so frustrating.

4.  Kansas City Royals.  Holy shit you guys are these last two teams brutal.  Honestly these might be the two worst teams in the entire league.  I'm going to throw the Royals in the lead because I like that fat doubles machine and $nake has a shirt of the Mexecutioner.  There's your upside, plus that Hawai'ian dude who's slugging like 3 in spring training.  The future is supposedly very bright here, which is good because the present is full of Jason Kendall and Bruce Chen.  No shit.  The Chenner.  Want to know how fucked up the Royals' are?  ESPN lists Melky Cabrera as their starting CF and starting RF, and that seems like it might be accurate.

5.  Cleveland Indians.  Carlos Santana is going to be awesome.  That's the entire list of positives I can come up with unless you believe in Justin Masterson (kind of sort of) or think Matt LaPorta might still be good (no chance).  Since I got nothin' else to say, here's a picture of a naked Grady Sizemore:

You know you love it.


AL WEST

1.  Oakland Athletics.  Ok fine, I'm buying in.  If San Francisco can win an entire World Series on the strength of their pitching staff, why can't Oakland win a crappy AL West on the strength of theirs?  Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson are studs in the making, Gio Gonzalez is nasty, and Dallas Braden has the soft-tossing lefty thing down pat.  Add in bullpen additions in Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour and I really like the pitching they've got here.  The offense was downright dreadful last year, and although the pick-ups of David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and Godzilla will help it still isn't going to be pretty.  This is going to be another team that's going to have to win those 3-2 ball games quite a bit if they're going to contend.

2.  Texas Rangers.  These guys are the opposite of Oakland with their potent lineup that gets more potenter with Adrian Beltre at the hot corner, but with Cliff Lee gone the entire rotation is rather underwhelming, especially if you're like me and think they all suck outside of C.J. Wilson.  With such a shaky staff I don't understand why they're so strident in keeping Neftali Feliz as their closer.  Yes he was good last year, but he's easily the most talented pitcher on the team and came up through the minors as a starter, and since that's where they could maximize his value I'm baffled at the choice to keep him closing games.  Good for the rest of the AL, I suppose.

3.  Los Angeles Angels.  Just a massive pile of meh, which seems odd because these guys were perennial contenders not that long ago, but I guess missing out on Carl Crawford and having a back-up plan of standing around doing nothing will generally drag you down a smidge.  Jered Weaver and Dan Haren are a great 1-2 punch, especially since it turns out Weaver is actually good which shocked the hell out of me, but after that everybody is boring unless you think 1B Mark Trumbo can win rookie of the year.  I don't, because I have never heard of him.  When the left-side of the diamond is made up of Maicier Izturis, Erick Aybar, and Alex Rios you know damn well you aren't competing for anything, and don't forget their still trying to force Fernando Rodney to be a closer so they'll lose their share of close games as well.

4.  Seattle Mariners.  I picked these guys as my sleeper team last year.  Turns out I'm an idiot.  Good news though, they've taken major steps to turn this thing around by acquiring Jack Cust, Gabe Gross, Adam Kennedy, Miguel Olivo, and Brendan Ryan.  Jesus Christ guys, you only won 61 games last year and THIS is how you address your issues?  How can you be this shitty and only have three young, high upside guys in the entire system (Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda)?  At least the Pirates and Royals look like they have a plan, and don't forget they had Cliff Lee!  What did they get for him, Smoak and a bag of balls?  This is terrible.  I can't wait until Felix forces his way out, maybe the Twins can get him for Cuddyer and Dusty Hughes.


POSTSEASON AND AWARDS:

NL MVP:  Troy Tulowitzki (alternate:  Buster Posey)
AL MVP:  Adrian Gonzalez (Evan Longoria)
NL Cy Young:  Clay Kershaw (Roy Halladay)
AL Cy Young:  Justin Verlander (Jon Lester)
NL Rookie: Domonic Brown (Freddie Freeman)
AL Rookie:  JP Arencibia (Desmond Jennings)
NL Division Winners:  Phillies, Reds, Giants
NL Wild Card:  Brewers
AL Division Winners:  Red Sox, Twins, A's
AL Wild Card:  Yankees
World Series:  Reds over Red Sox

Game 1 - Yankees/Twins running Diary

I just finally got the baby to sleep (for how long who knows, stay tuned) but I'm just now able to put some thoughts down on virtual paper here for your game 1 Yankees v. Twins matchup.  We're in the bottom of the second, and here is what I have to say so far:

-  I really hate sac bunting in the first, especially with the second batter of the game.  If the pitcher just doesn't have it early, you're giving him a free out.  Plus, there's that whole thing about how sac bunts don't really help you very often, which has been statistically proven.

-  Liriano pees his pants when Marcus Thames is up.

-  Sabathia intentionally throwing at Thome because of that one time when they played together in Cleveland and Thome didn't invite him to a BBQ party at his house.

-  If Cuddy was saving it for the playoffs this year, I'm ok with that.  Although he owes us about 10 more based on his play all season.

-  So that's where we stand.  2-0 Twins, Liriano looking mostly good.  Sabathia just struck out Valencia who did an awfully good impression of someone who has never seen a slider before.  CC looks good, I have a hunch he's on tonight, but after intentionally beaning Thome because he slept with his wife he made his one mistake to Cuddy and luckily he was able to take advantage, so Liriano needs to keep this up and keep the Twins ahead because I don't think they're going to get much more.

-  Tonight's drink of choice:  Three Philosophers beer.  To be followed by Coors Light.

-  Double for Hardy, which proves that all of you who questioned me when I said the Twins had the advantage at shortstop can now suck it.

-  Slower Vince Coleman swings like a girl - again.  Inning over.

-  So I had the most fantastically interesting dinner last night.  We went to Vincent with work, the kind of thing I desperately miss with my new job, since if you pay way to much attention here you know I used to get fancy dinners all the time (along with a lot of fun travel) that I don't anymore, so I was really looking forward to it, and I ended up trying several things I'd never had.

We opened with appetizers both comforting (baked camembert) and exotic (escargot), and I did end up trying the snails, which was my first time ever.  They basically drenched them in a garlic butter sauce (to mask the taste) and serve them boiling hot (to mask the texture) which leads to me to ask why exactly people eat them at all, but I tried them and other than being hot they were fine.  Of course, I mostly tasted garlic butter, which I think was the point.  Back to the game, more about the meal later.

-  Leadoff walk to Gardner.  This, frankly, sucks, and Liriano is doing that thing where he looks scard to throw a strike, nibbles nibbles nibbles, and walks a bunch of guys.  At least Jeter's up, this is a double play waiting to happen.

-  OMG throw a strike asshole.

-  Base hit Jeter.  First and second nobody out and I want to cry.  That's the second 0-2 count he's had where he's allowed the runner to reach base.  I can't help but feel like we've got the bad Liriano tonight.

-  Two fly outs and a K of A-Rod that left him looking absolutely silly.  So maybe we have the good Liriano, although I'm starting to suspect they are one in the same.

-  TNT just let us know Sabathia and Orlando Hudson are good friends dating back to 1999 when they were teammates in the Sally League.  I wonder what color skirts they wore and who baited the hook when the went fishing.  Base knock, Hudson.

-  Mauer grounds out with Hudson running and slides into first like an idiot (but is out), but noone of that matters because O-Hud ends up taking third like Jake Taylor on a bunt.  Brilliant play.  I guess Hudson skirt is the color of rocket fuel and veteran savvy.  And he just scored on a wild pitch, 3-0 Twins.  I'm starting to feel good and I hate it.

-  Ron Darling, one of our announcers tonight, "Along with throwing, giving up passed balls has been a big weakness of Posada this year."  So what, exactly, is left?  I know.  I bet he always invites Sabathia to the BBQs at his house.

-  Favorite text so far tonight, courtesy of Snacks, "I will commit murder at a twins game someday due to bathroom etiquette rules."

-  Liriano gets Thames out.  Everything is coming up Millhouse.

-  Great inning for Liriano, which brings me back to my great meal.  The next course I had was a poached eggs with a salted cod puree, bell peppers, and little slices of some kind of sausage.  I'm not usually an egg fan, at all, but the other option for this course was a pureed soup of root vegetables, and I do not like pureed soups, so I went with this.  The accompaniments were good enough to offset my usual distaste for egg, and I thought it was quite good, although not very exciting.  More coming up.

-  Here's an idea - the Twins sign Carl Crawford for next year, trade Kubel or Delmon for a pitcher, and outright cut Cuddyer.  Who's in?

-  Next course I was really tempted to go with the white fish, because there's nothing more I like than a really well cooked piece of fish (other than maybe properly cooked, rock-salted prime rib with a well seasoned au jus) but I just couldn't bring myself to pass on the wild boar because, really, when am I going to have wild boar again?  It was pretty good, stringy to be sure and the closest taste I can come up with to it would be beef jerky (which is not remotely an insult) but overall quite good and I'm glad I had it.  Also came with brussel sprouts which I had also never tasted, and these were pretty outstanding.  I don't know if they were just good plain or if it was the squash puree mixed with them, but I was impressed.

-  1-2-3 for Liriano including a couple of strikeouts and he's back to looking sharp.  I'm really glad I didn't jump in my car, drive to Target Field, hop the fence, run on to the field and tackle and/or choke Liriano whilst yelling "They can't hit you asshole!" Not that I was contemplating it.  Barely even warmed up the car.

-  Oh, and FYI - I'm chatting with a Yankee fan as I watch, and if he's any representation of that team they are really, really down on this year's squad and don't feel remotely confident.  As in, win this first game and the fans, if not the team, will curl up and die faster than a snail in a boiling vat of garlic butter.  My biggest concern is who pitches the 8th.  That inning is going to make or break this game.

-  Easy inning for Sabathia, and through five these are a couple of good pitching performances, although nothing compared to Halladay's no-hitter earlier today.  Which, incidentally, is what the announcers for this game just talked about for that entire half-inning.  So, to recap, three idiots who get paid handsomely to do a job I could do much better, just spent an entire inning talking about a game that was already over.  Brilliant.  And I know everybody thinks they could be a better announcer than the actual announcers, and most of you are wrong, but I actually could be better.  I'd be the next Jack Buck (NOT Joe) crossed with a little Vin Scully and a dash of Keith Olbermann back when he was good combined with Brad Pitt's looks and Brad Pitt's body.

-  Texeira double here in the top 6 with one out.  It's still 3-0, and now I'm terrified Liriano is going to walk A-Rod because he's scared to set up the 3-run, game tying HR.  Seriously, if that happens this is a sweep.  No way the Twins could survive having the momentum yanked out from under them like that.

-  Indeed, he walks A-Rod (although I'm pretty certain that ball four was a strike).  Game all set to be tied here.  Full expecting my heart to be ripped out.

-  Base hit by Cano, 3-1.  I don't think I can do this.  Might have to just change the channel for a while.

-  Strikes out Thames, which has to be huge pyschologically since that guy hits everything Liriano throws, and hits it a ton.  Now it's Posada, and Franky is at 97 pitches so you know Gardy's hair trigger is getting itchy.

-  Old man time with a base hit to score one, now 3-2 Twins, runners on first and second for Granderson, who should probably strike out on 3 pitches.  Christ, guy has no clue where the strike zone is anyway.

-  Granderson off the wall.  Yanks lead 4-3.  I'm done.  Fuck this.

-  Oh my sweet christ Sabathia walked in the tying run after walking Valencia on four straight pitches.  How can that possibly happen?  And with two outs after having struck Valencia out twice already.  Just throw it down the middle and odds are he pees his pants.

-  Tied heading to the seventh, just waiting to see if it's Guerrier or Crain who loses the game.  In the meantime, I'll tell you about my dessert.  I went with the Nutella crepe with vanilla ice cream and I have to tell you this might have been the best thing I've ever eaten.  I had never had Nutella, but I know it's popular in certain places, and it was certainly popular with my mouth last night. The warm chocolatey crepe combined with the cold vanilla ice cream was perfect, and I'm not a dessert guy at all.  No chance I would have ordered it on my own if it wasn't part of our Prix Fixe menu.  And I'm damn glad it was.  Outstanding.

-  Crain on.  Hopefully he'll be the Nutella Crepe in my garbage can of my life.

-  Now I'm done for real.

Win Twins: American League Division Series Preview

Even though we all know the New York Yankees are going to sweep since they completely own the Minnesota Twins in every way, Kubel homer off Rivera aside, I feel like I should toss up some kind of preview of some kind since I like to pretend I'm a Twins writer. So how about we take a look, position by position, so we can truly get a read on how badly teh Yanks are going to own this sucker.

CATCHER: Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469 - 9 HRs) vs. Jorge Posada (.248/.357/.454).  Mauer is going to win this battle against any playoff catcher this year, although there's somebody in San Fran who might make a pretty good argument, but his hitting - even with his power disappearing - combined with his defense make him easily the winner in this argument.  Posada is still an ageless wonder but his skills are starting to diminish, even though - and you're going to hear this a lot with NYY - he's still patient and draws a lot of walks and can still hit for power.  His arm is basically shot (he only threw out 16% of base-stealers this year) but that won't really matter since the Twins can't/don't really run.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

FIRST BASE:  Michael Cuddyer (.271/.336/.417 - 14 HRs) vs. Mark Texeira (.256/.365/.481 - 33 HRs).  This year was an off year for Tex (worst avg, obp, and slugging since he was a rook), but he still blows what the Twins have to offer completely out of the water.  The bad Cuddy showed up this year, which is unfortunate because this is when they could use him most, what with their best player on the shelf the second half of the year.  Hopefully he can recapture some of that 2006/2009 magic, because the Twins are going to need all the big bats they can get.  Plus, Texeira is a 3-time gold glover, and although it's commendable that Cuddy is willing to play wherever they need him he's a god awful 1B-man.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees 

SECOND BASE:  Orlando Hudson (.268/.338/.372 - 10 SBs) vs. Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534 - 29 HRs).  Look at those numbers.  Cano is just ridiculous.  Do you realize that slugging percentage of Cano's is the second-highest of any player in this series, behind on Jim Thome?  And we know what Thome has done, but Cano isn't that far behind.  And he plays frickin' second base!  I don't mind Hudson, despite the fact that he's hit .171 since September 8th, but he's far, far, far outclassed here.  Cano is basically Joe Mauer with power, while O-Hud is, well, Alexi Casilla with a a better reputation.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

THIRD BASE:  Danny Valencia (.311/.351/.448 - 7 HRs) vs. Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506 - 30 HRs).  Similar to Texeira, A-Rod had one of the worst years of his entire career but still blows the Twins' offering away.  Not as badly as Tex, thanks to Valencia's high average, good defense, and the fact that he seems to be getting better, but Rodiguez is still so far beyond Dannyboy that, much like Dr. Dre said to his rival rappers, "You couldn't see me with binoculars."  Oh, and if you want to make the argument right now that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs do me a favor:  shut down the internet window you are viewing this blog on and never, ever, ever come back here again because you are a retard.  Also, and this has nothing to do with anything right now except that I'm watching Zombieland, I really dig Emma Stone.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

SHORTSTOP:  J.J. Hardy (.268/.320/.394 - 6 HRs) vs. Derek Jeter (.270/.340/.370 - 18 SBs).  In what is quickly becoming a common theme, Jeter is having the worst year of his career, but this one is at least close.  In actually, Hardy out OPSes Jeter, even though it's like comparing Alexi Casilla to Matt Tolbert, thanks to his higher slugging, and according to every defensive metric I looked it, which is everything fangraphs has, Hardy is a better fielder.  So we're going to have to give this one to Minnesota.  Which doesn't feel right.  And not because it's Captain Intensity and Sportsmanship, because he's been overrated for years, but because it's Hardy and he kind of sucks.  Sorry ladies.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

LEFT FIELD:  Delmon Young (.298/.333/.493 - 21 HRs) vs. Brett Gardner (.277/.383/.379 - 47 SBs).  Tough call, because these guys couldn't be more different.  Young is the lumbering stick-man, finally coming into his own and showing some of his promise while at every pitch within a 4-mile radius of home plate.  Gardner is the fleet of foot slap-hitter who is probably the best left-fielder in baseball and is very selective at the plate.  It is close, but Young's extra power can't make up for Gardner's non-hitting skills.  And I don't mean like, his ability to cook a nice steak on the grill (top notch from what I hear.  He uses a little bit of garlic butter is the rumor), I mean the speed and fielding thing.   ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

CENTER FIELD:   Denard Span (.264/.331/.348 - 26 SBs, 10 3Bs) vs. Curtis Granderson (.247/.324/.468 - 24 HRs).  Sigh.  Remember when Span looked like he was going to become your prototypical leadoff hitter?  Like a poor man's Tim Raines with less steals?  Well now he's more like a poor man's Vince Coleman with way, way less steals (NOTE:  Coleman was actually a terrible hitter, which you probably don't remember because you were blinded by his blindingly blinding speed.  Blind.)  Granderson has been just barely good this year, but he destroys the new, slower Vince Coleman.  Quick, guess how many walks Spoleman has had since August 24th:  It's 12.  Jason Repko has nine in that same time frame, and he plays like every 8th day.  In short, Denard Span is a huge disappointment and I hope he gets the mumps.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

RIGHT FIELD:  Jason Kubel (.249/.323/.427 - 21 HRs) vs. Nick Swisher (.288/.359/.511 - 29 HRs).  Both of these guys would be better off playing softball so don't expect any great fielding antics (unless you count diving and catching a ball a normal fielder would get to standing up as a great fielding play), but Swisher is merely bad while my boy Kubes is basically a butcher of historic proportions.  And as far as hitting goes, Kubel is Kubel this year, while Swisher is what Kubel was last year.  No contest.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

DESIGNATED HITTER:  Jim Thome (.283/.412/.627 - 25 HRs) vs. Lance Berkman (.248/.368/.413).  Thank god Thome is involved here, because he'd win a comparison against anyone.  Berkman?  Please.  A-Rod?  Not this year.  Babe Ruth?  Sorry fatty.  Zeus?  No mythical beings allowed.  Jesus?  I said no mythical beings allowed.  So Berkman and his big giant chin have no chance.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #1/#5:   Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).  This is an incredibly even matchup, especially because when you start looking at the nerd stats Liriano actually comes out pretty far ahead thanks to his great HR/9 mark and because his walk and strikeout numbers are way better than Sabathia's.  Just looking at the "mainstream" stats you'd pick Sabathia, but go a bit deeper and it's pretty obvious Liriano has actually been the better pitcher this year, and it's actually not all that close.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #2:  Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).  This is a pretty even matchup, if you ignore the fact that the Twins seemingly couldn't hit Pettitte if he tossed the ball underhand.  A little wrinkle here is that Pettite is just getting back from injury, having pitched just three times since mid-July, and topped out at just 88 pitches in those three starts since returning.  Pavano has been very good this year, even though he's tapered off a bit since that streak of 18 consecutive complete games or whatever it was, and with his propensity to throw strikes the patient approach of the Yankees shouldn't bother him, and may even play in his favor.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #3:  Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).  One thing I really love about this matchup is that since the all-star break Hughes has been absolutely awful, with an ERA near 5 despite a fluky low BABIP of .262 and less than a 2-1 KK/BB ratio.  That means he's been simply dreadful.  And we know, outside of his last few starts, that Duensing has been brilliant this year, so all signs point to a Twinkie advantage.  Except of course, that the last time he pitched at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs he got shelled.  Still.....ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #4:  Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).  I know Blackburn has been pitching must better since his trip to AAA, and I know Burnett is mostly a mess, but I can't possibly give the advantage to the Twins here.  Blackburn doesn't have great stuff so he must rely on location so much that his margin for error is razor-thin, and when he's even slightly off he's gotten roasted by the likes of Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City - can you imagine what the Yankees will do to him if he's not 100% locked in?  It's not like Burnett has been great lately, since June 4th his ERA is 6.46, and I know Blackburn has come up in the clutch in the past, but I just can't do it.  Plus Sabathia is almost certainly going to be the one pitching this game.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

[NOTE:  New York hasn't announced their pitching lineup, so this is all just conjecture.  Good chance Sabathia comes back to pitch game #4 (where he'd obviously have a huge advantage over Blackburn), leaving Pettitte vs. Liriano for game 5 if it gets that far.]

CLOSER:  Matt Capps (42/48 saves, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Mariano Rivera (33/38 saves, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP).  Father fucking time aka the Sandman just keeps rolling along, and you can throw out that blown save to the Twins earlier because those 2 ERs he allowed accounted for 33% of the ERs he allowed through August.  Of course, he's been super-mortal here in September, with an ERA of 7.38 and 3 blown saves in the month, but I'm not exactly ready to call him done just yet.  Plus, the best team Capps has ever played on before this year was a 68-win Pirate team, so not only has he never pitched in the playoffs, but he's really never pitched in a meaningful game.  Seriously, how do you feel when you think about Capps coming in to Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the ninth with the Twins up 3-2? Nauseous, at best.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

BULLPEN:   Crain/Fuentes/Guerrier/Mijaries/Rauch vs. Wood/Chamberlain/Robertson/Gaudin/Logan.  I haven't seen the Yankees postseason roster, so I'm not sure if all those guys will be on there, but the main three - Wood, Chamberlain, and Robertson - certainly will be.  Wood has basically been unhittable since he came over from Cleveland, but Chamberlain hasn't been great this year (although he still strikes out a ton of guys and can be untouchable when he's on) and Robertson is definitely hittable.  One thing that should help the Twins out is that the only lefty in the pen is Boone Logan, and although he's been good this year and particularly tough on lefties, he's been awful in his career overall and hasn't ever pitched in the postseason - could be where the Twins can take advantage.  Overall, despite the struggles in the last couple of weeks, I like the Twins' group better.  Although every single one of them scares me to death.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins 

Total it all up and the Twins look good on the mound, with the Yankees holding an advantage at the plate and win the overall breakdown by the slimmest of  margins at 8-7.  Of course, games aren't played with words on crappy, third-rate blogs, they're played between the lines where anything can happen.  Because this is your state, this is your team, and this is Twins Territory!

Yanks in 4.

But not if Wonderbaby^TM has anything to say about it.






If you're looking for another take, here's Reusse's breakdown using a similar method, but the results are very, very different and a lot more stupider.

MLB Preview - American League

Here it is, what you've all been waiting for.  Your American League preview.  Although I have to warn you I went out to dinner with my parents and had a bunch of beers, so I'm probably just going to half-ass this thing.  Or at least more than usual.

AL EAST

1.  NEW YORK YANKEES.  It pains me, physically pains me to pick these jackasses to win.  I almost win went another team here, but then I realized that would just have been picking against the Yankees because they were assholes, especially your boyfriend Derek Jeter, and as a professional journalist who was once named a top 100 sports blog in America I just can't have that kind of impartialism running rampant on such a respected blog, so I pick the Yankees first.  Seriously though, that Nick Johnson signing is perfect for this team and the exact type of signing they used to not be smart enough to make.  So I guess what I'm saying is the Yankees might be back.  I mean Jesus Christ their fifth starter is Phil Hughes.  How is that even fair?  He'd be second on the Twins.  You heard me.

2.  TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS.  It seems like they have an endless supply of young talent, much like Vivid.  And most of them work out well, which is what makes them different.  This year, keep an eye out for "fifth" starter Wade Davis and the guy who will be the Carlos Gomez we always wanted, Desmond Jennings.  I'm not certain that Rafael Soriano is actually the answer to their bullpen questions but why is the guy from those Miller High Life commercials on Cougar Town?  Side bar:  this show is terrible.

3.  BOSTON RED SOX.  I just wish they'd go away already, but somehow ($200 million payroll) they keep staying relevant.  But who fills in for Jason Bay's numbers?  Victor Martinez?  Please.  Although I do want you all to know that I'm sharing a fantasy baseball team with Snake this year and he said our second round target should be V. Martinez so feel free to all point and laugh at him.  Adrian Beltre should be a monster though.


4.  BALTIMORE ORIOLES.  I feel bad for these guys.  They finally seem to have it together, with a bunch of nice young arms and a bunch of good young bats and it doesn't matter remotely because of the division they are in.  If the O's were in the central or west they'd be in contention for a division crown, but being in the East they are screwed.  Look out for both Adam Jones on the bat side and Brian Matusz on the arm side.  I got a game he throwed last year and I think he's probably the real deal (not the J.D. Durbin kind).  Also wieters wieters wieters  wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters wieters.


5.  TORONTO BLUE JAYS.  Trading Halladay was the right move since they suck, but they need to pray to Poseidon that a bunch of those prospects pan out because this is uglier than that chick from that one show.  Travis Snider is a complete pimp, as are Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, but the rest of the lineup features guys like Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Lyle Overbay.  And that's better than the rotation, which is just like the Twins rotation how every starter is kind of on the same level except if that level was Glen Perkins.


AL CENTRAL


1.  MINNESOTA TWINS.  I'm almost kind of glad about the whole Nathan injury because it puts a flaw into what was shaping up to be a little too perfect of a team.  Kind of like going into the season everyone was expecting the Vikings to hit the Super Bowl, that's how the Twins offseason was shaping up.  Now that there's a chink (NOTE:  not racist) in the armor maybe they are ready to take it.  Feel free to expect Kubel to become the third member of the current team to win an MVP.  Also, Delmon Young:  .310/.360/.500.  Believe.


2.  DETROIT TIGERS.   I'm very intrigued by what they are doing here.  It's a very nice mix of young (Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore, Max Scherzer) and old (Mags, Miggy, Verlander) with a shitbox of a bullpen.  Does anybody still believe in Joel Zumaya at this point?  Because he's officially closing now, a solid three or so years after he should have been ready.  Did you know Brandon Inge struck at 170 times and OBP'd at .314.  God that guy sucks.  If I wasn't lazy I'd try to find video footage of his 0 home runs in the derby last year.  But here we are.


3.  CHICAGO WHITE STOCKINGS.  That rotation is super good if you believe Peavy is back, which any smart human does even though that sucks worse than your life for the Twins.  Funny that the offense basically keys on if Carlos Quentin, who looks like a retarded mexican Eric Cartman, is back to form, which he won't be.  So you can expect a lot of 2-1 losses for Chicago this year.  Oh, and if you want a prediction you can consider this a guarantee - Bobby Jenks implodes this year.  Mark Wohlers-style.


4.  CLEVELAND INDIANS.  They don't really have much of a chance to compete this year, and will definitely trade Kerry Wood and should think about trading Grady Sizemore, but they seem to at least have an idea of what they're doing and are stockpiling some talent.  Matt LaPorta, Lou Marson, Carlos Santana, Luis Valbuena, Asdrubel Cabrera, and Michael Brantley are very good young hitters who aren't there as a group yet but will get their soon.  Luckily the rotation is brutal and the bullpen might be even worse.  There is a lot of chatter about Fausto Carmona and being back to form coming out of spring training.  I'd dismiss it, but I'm basically buying in 100% to the Frank Liriano hype so I have to respect this, right.  I don't want to be some kind of hypocrite like Oksana Baiul.


5.  KANSAS CITY ROYALS.  I want to believe in KC, I really do.  Partially for Zack Greinke and partially because it should be unconstitutional for such a beautiful ballpark to house such a shitty team (see:  TCF Bank and the Gophers).  Every time it seems like they might be moving in the right direction, like stockpiling a good amount of young arms, they go out and sign the worst lineup anybody has ever seen ever in forever.  Just terrible.  It's like, I feel the Pirates are starting to figure it out but the Royals are the younger, more retarded brother who has had the same plan explained to them and acts like they get it but then signs Jason Kendall to a 2 year/$6 million contract.  Honest to god his agent must have shit himself when he saw that come through on facsimile.



AL WEST

1.  CALIFORNIA ANGELS.  Sort of by default here.  All these teams are pretty close to even, but when you're in a cut-throat business like blogging you have to make a stand and I guess my stand is picking the Angels and also I'm bored.  Does it even matter?  These teams (sans the Rangers) all play way the hell over on the west coast where sports are over by 8pm and then every one is bored.  Unless the Oscars are on, in which case the whole city shuts down and if you happen to be out there for new job orientation you can't go to the hotel bar and watch a basketball game because every TV is on the stupid Oscars and god forbid you ask if they can change one little tv in the corner because the bartender will judge you like he was Mills Lane and then not change the channel at all.

2.  SEATTLE MARINERS.  I have to pick them here because I love their strategy of going after pitching and defense in that gigantic park, and also because I put some money on them already at 16-1 two win the AL.  Now that I think about it, that's a pretty stupid bet and if I really like them I should have just waited for their win OVER/UNDER to come out and roll on that and hold on one minute.  Ok I now have the Mariners to win over 83.  Also Twins OVER 82, Rockies over 84.5 (heavy here), Giants UNDER 82.5, and ATHLETICS UNDER 78.  That was fun.

3.  TEXAS RANGERS.  I have never heard of any of these pitchers.  I wish it was Friday.  I want to draft a team.  And also drink beer.  And also drink beer with Snake while we draft a dominant team which will have no Rangers at all unless Justin Smoak gets called up.  That guy is going to make Justin Morneau look like a girl.


4.  OAKLAND ATHLETICS.   This is, frankly, pretty awful.  I love Billy Beane and he basically turned the league's front offices upside down by looking at the game in a different way, but it's not really working anymore and I don't think you could fault the A's if they chose to go in a different direction.  Also when/if that happens I will be first in line for the "Fire Bill Smith hire Billy Beane" movement.  Somebody just let me know when we meet and what I have to bring.  I just concocted a pretty good dry rub for some chicken wings, so if it's going to be that kind of party somebody let me know.  Also let me know if it's the kind of party where ding-dongs are getting stuck in the mashed potatoes.  I'll call Q-Tip.


AL WILD CARD - Rays
AL PENNANT - Twins (believe it)
AL MVP - A-Rod (runner up = Kubel)
CY YOUNG - Felix Hernandez (runner up = Matt Garza)
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Matusz (runner up = Jennings)

WORLD SERIES WINNER - Phillies.  Sorry homers.