Four more conference tournaments wrapped up last night with North Dakota State taking the Summit (called it!), Robert Morris the NEC (called it!), Valpo the Horizon, and Gonzaga the West Coast (called it!). Gonzaga is obviously good and will be a 1 or 2 seed depending on how some other tournaments shake out, but I don't really see any way any of the other three win a first round game. Maybe Valpo if they get a team that doesn't shoot well. North Carolina would be fun.
Anyway, there are one million tournaments kicking off today so no need for preamble. God knows there'll be enough words for you to read.
ATLANTIC 10:
When did the A-10 become all competitive and deep and fun? This conference has five 20+ game winners already, three more teams with at 17 wins, and eight of fourteen teams finished with a winning record in conference play. They also have four Top 50 teams in kenpom's rankings, and two more in the top 75 with a few more just outside the Top 100. This tournament is going to be wild.
FAVORITE: Davidson. The Wildcats stormed to the #1 seed by winning their final 9 games with four of those wins coming over fellow contenders. Davidson has one of the most fun offenses in the country, playing fast but taking care of the ball, whipping it around the perimeter and draining threes. The register a ton of assists (61% of baskets, ranks 28th), get forty percent of their points from three (ranks 5th), and score 1.9 points per possession (6th in country). All this while playing fast. Super, super fun team.
SLEEPER: VCU. There's no mistaking it - when Briante Weber went down with a knee injury VCU's season derailed. They lost that game and then went 5-5 the rest of the way without any kind of good win. However this is a really talented team with an extremely good coach. Weber was a huge key on both sides of the ball for the Rams, obviously, but would it really surprise you to see Shaka Smart figure something out and go on a run?
THE PICK: Dayton. I can't shake the memory of that run Dayton went on in the NCAAs last year. Yes, each year is different so this isn't the exact same team, but Jordan Sibert and Dyshawn Pierre are both back and looking at their season long results (23-7) they only have one bad loss. Dayton also pretty much shuts down the 3-point line so if it comes down to a Davidson vs. Dayton match-up the Flyers should be able to hang. Though Davidson did beat them by 17 earlier while hitting 12-23 threes. Well, too late to change the pick now.
BIG EAST:
Everyone loves to complain about how the old Big East is no more, and with good reason because those old tournaments were awesome (stupid football). But the new Big East is pretty good. Creighton was a great story last year, and this year Villanova would be getting all kind of attention if it wasn't for Kentucky. The Wildcats (Nova version) have won 12 in row, are 29-2 overall, have played one bad game all year, and have six guys who average between nine and fourteen points per game. Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's are all really good too. You can take away the football schools, but the Big East is still a hell of a basketball conference.
FAVORITE: Villanova. I guess I kind of wrote them up above, but this is a really good team. In that 12 game winning streak to close the season they beat Georgetown, Butler, and St. John's while sweeping Creighton and Providence. That's not beating up on the dregs of the conference, that's just whooping up everybody.
SLEEPER: Providence. This team should be better than it has been, and it's been pretty good (21-10, 11-7). LaDontae Henton is a 20 point per game scorer, and Kris Dunn has triple double potential every time out (15.5 points, 5.6 rebs, 7.4 assists per game). For whatever reason they just lose to every really good team they play. Maybe that's who they are and they're actually just a slightly above average team. Maybe they just need something to spark.
THE PICK: Villanova. Not really sure what else to write here. These guys are really good. They shoot the ball well from everywhere, they take care of the basketball, they get to the free throw line a lot, and they're one of the top assist teams in the country. They also play very good defense, create turnovers, don't foul, and have size and experience. The only real weakness is they aren't a great rebounding team and maybe that bites them in the NCAA Tournament at some point, and Butler could be a bit of a problem but they won't face them until the championship, if they get there. This team's really good.
BIG TEN:
Hey, you've probably heard of these guys. It's kind of a weird year in the Big Ten, because I only really see one Final Four contender. Plenty of Sweet 16 type teams, but other than the stupid Badgers I don't see anyone else advancing past early in the second week at best. Maryland doesn't seem good enough to be a 3 seed from what I've seen, Michigan State certainly has the talent and the Izzo to possibly do that thing Tom Izzo always does, and De'Angelo Russell is good enough to carry the team John Wallace style, but in general I think the Sweet 16 is the ceiling for most of these teams.
FAVORITE: Wisconsin. Like I said, the Badgers are pretty prohibitive favorite here. The won the conference by two games, and by 4+ over everyone except Maryland. This year's version of the Badgers is basically the same as always - play slow, take care of the ball, shoot well and immediately get back on defense to limit transition opportunities, play good defense without taking any chances, allow few offensive rebounds and don't foul (comes with no chances, also no turnovers). This year's version is the most perfect version Bo Ryan has put together, that offensive is the #1 in the country in points per possession, and they have a legitimate star in Frank Kaminsky. As an added wrinkle they actually have some athletic ability with both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes, and Bronson Koenig has stepped in for Traveon Jackson with no issue - and Jackson might be back. Yuck.
SLEEPER: Minnesota. Homer alert, yes I know, but hear me out. The Gophers possess a couple of the main characteristics I've outlined in all these previews for a potential sleeper: they have a trait different from most of the rest of the conference (they're the fastest team in the B10), and they have a skill that, if everything breaks right, can win a game all on it's own in their ability to force turnovers (they rank 8th). They've also been right there in almost every game they've lost - the only games that were basically over prior to the endgame were @Maryland, @Indiana, and the two Wisconsin games. I know watching this team all year has you rolling your eyes and shaking your head and I'm with you, but they profile as a sleeper and they wouldn't have to face Wisconsin until a potential final. Stranger things have happened. Probably.
THE PICK: Michigan State. Though Wisconsin is the best team, they also seem to usually take the Big Ten Tournament off having one just once since 2008, and the Spartans seem the best bet to step in and win. The Spartans have that incredible trio of Dawson, Trice, and Valentine and Izzo seems to have the team peaking at the end of the year, as per usual. Sparty closed out 8-3, and even though one of those losses was against the Gophers, I'll give them a pass.
BIG 12:
Everyone says this is the best conference this year, kenpom has them well clear of everyone else, and maybe they're right. Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State all have a chance at the Final Four, and I guess you can't forget about West Virginia. You can, however, forget about Oklahoma State if you want. They've completely faded, losing five of their last six. ESPN still has them in as an 11 seed, but unless something changes they have no chance at upsetting anyone.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks are the most confusing team to me this year. At times, I've thought I'd probably pick them to make the Final Four. At other times, they look like a first round upset candidate. At their best they're a hyper athletic bunch with an inside presence, good perimeter shooting, and a bunch of guys who can defend all over the court. At others, they look lost, struggle in the half court offense, and get crushed on the boards. This is why you have a team who can go 13-5 in the best conference in basketball who also got absolutely crushed by Temple. I'm clueless.
SLEEPER: West Virginia. When I think of teams jumping up and doing unexpected things I usually figure they're a team with a star who can carry the team (Juwan Staten?), a team who does one thing so exceptionally well they can swing a game just on that alone (WVU #1 in forcing turnovers in the country), and a team who plays a pace, either slow or fast, that can make other teams uncomfortable (26th fastest team). WVU checks those boxes. Their actual shooting and defense are pretty suspect so It'd probably have to be pretty fluky, but they could do it.
THE PICK: Oklahoma. Some teams just seem built for a tournament type run, call it the eye test or what have you, but for me both Oklahoma and Iowa State seem like those kind of teams to me. They're both very athletic, fast teams who play a hectic pace, while Iowa State excels on offense and Oklahoma on defense. I'm giving the nod to the Sooners because they're a better offensive team than Iowa State is defensive, and Oklahoma's star, Buddy Hield, seems to be trending up while Iowa State's, Georges Niang, is trending down.
CONFERENCE USA:
This is another conference that got rocked by realignment, losing Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Marquette (among others) over the last ten years - basically every one of their flagship programs. Louisiana Tech has been on the fringe of an at large bid the last couple of years and Old Dominion is near the bubble this year, but I don't think C-USA has been a multi-bid conference in a while. They're still a young conference, so maybe they'll grow into the MVC someday, but they're closer to a low major than a mid major right now.
FAVORITE: Louisiana Tech. This is the third straight year the Bulldogs have won a regular season title - the last two in C-USA and the prior season in the WAC. Yet they haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991 because they've bombed out in the conference tournament every year. Coach Michael White (sounds made up) has established his system in Louisiana, and every year the Bulldogs play fast, play good defense, and create a ton of turnovers while limiting their own. It's worked in the regular season, but like Billy Beane so far his shit doesn't work in the playoffs. Hopefully this is finally the year.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. They've won the conference tournament two of the last three years, and won five times in the 2000s in the Sun Belt so they know what they're doing at the end of the year. WKU seems to jump up and become an NCAA Tournament sleeper every few years, led by a star like Courtney Lee, Orlando Mendez-Valdez, or A.J. Slaughter. They certainly have another candidate this year in senior guard T.J. Price, who led the conference in scoring at 17.6 points per game while hitting 42% of his threes. He could certainly carry this team, and he's got three other double digit scorers to help out. Of course, it's hard to believe a team that lost to the Gophers could go on to have any success.
THE PICK: UTEP. I liked UTEP to start the year, and although they haven't done anything to make me say hey wow look at UTEP, they haven't bombed out either. 13-5 in conference play with the #2 offense and #3 defense in CUSA, they're a definite contender, and an early nonconference win over Xavier is better than anything else anyone in the conference can point to. The Miners did get swept by La Tech, but they won't have to face them unless they both make the final, and Tech is flawed enough they might not make it. UTEP can handle anyone else.
MOUNTAIN WEST:
Well it was a run Mountain West Conference. After ranking as a Top 10 Conference by kenpom from 2002-2014, the Mountain West dropped to 12th this year. That might not seem like a big deal, but another way to look at it is after easily putting multiple teams in the tournament year after year, the MWC might be a one bid league this year.
FAVORITE: San Diego State. The only MWC team guaranteed of a bid this year, the Aztecs have a little bit of a dynasty going on here under Steve Fisher with four regular season titles in the last five seasons, though they've only won one conference tournament in that time. This year will also mark their sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Aztecs advancing past the first round three times, including a Sweet 16 appearance last season. It's the same team as every other year, although this year might be Fisher's most extreme - it's his best offense and his worst defense in this run of success. Eventually you gotta score. Unlike you in high school.
SLEEPER: Wyoming. Everything started out great for the Cowboys. They came out of the gate at 15-2, including a 4-0 conference start which included wins over Colorado, Colorado State, and Boise State. Then an understandable loss to San Diego State, and two overtime wins and they were 17-3 and 6-1 and dreams of an NCAA bid, their first since 2002, appeared. And then the bottom fell. The Cowboys won just 5 the rest of the way against six losses and the at large dream disappeared. They did lose leading scorer and rebounder Larry Nance Jr. for four games to injury but he's back now, and although Wyoming has gone just 1-3 since his return if they can refind that early season form they could make a run.
THE PICK: Boise State. Similar to Wyoming, Boise State started out well at 10-2 with losses to just Wisconsin and NC State. Similar to Wyoming, they dealt with an injury to last season's leading scorer Anthony Drmic, only he was out for the season. They had a mid-season hiccup, a four game losing streak that killed any at large chances, but since then they've been on fire, going 14-1 to close out the season. The Broncos' second leading scorer last year, Derrick Marks, has completely put this team on his back, averaging over 20 points per game over this stretch, hitting 30 points three times. Oh yeah, they also swept SDSU. So there's that.
PAC 12:
Talk about a top heavy league. Arizona and Utah are top 8 teams per kenpom, then next up is Stanford at #44 (though they seem to be tanking with a 2-5 close to the season). The Wildcats and Utes are both Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the only other team to reach Top 25 in either is Oregon State on defense. Unfortunately, in my opinion, both those teams are super vulnerable. Could be another bad year for the Pac 12. Or Arizona could win the title. What am I, Nostradamus?
FAVORITE: Arizona. So Arizona is 28-3 with a Top 11 mark in both O and D efficiency, so what's my problem? I just haven't been impressed. Nobody on the team seems to be a reliable bet to show up all the time. Just look at their losses this year: UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State. Now way around it, those are all three bad losses. Their top end play is as good as it gets with sweeps of Utah, Stanford, and Oregon with non-conference wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State, but how to explain those losses?
SLEEPER: Oregon. Tough to find a sleeper in such a top heavy conference with so many horrible teams at the bottom, but the Ducks stand out. The closed the season 11-2 and mixed a win over Utah in there. They had a shaky start to the season but looking back other than a disastrous trip out to Washington where they got swept their worst loss is to Michigan, so they've mainly taken care of business against bad teams. Joseph Young is the type who can carry a team to a conference title on his own, and if he can't he'll certainly shoot enough to try.
THE PICK: Arizona. I can also completely see them flaming out in their first game, but who else am I going to pick? I should probably trust Utah more than I do looking at their profile and advanced stats, but they just seem to be missing something. Stanford is terrible now, and Oregon just has too many flaws. UCLA is the only other team under consideration, but they've mostly spent the year beating bad and average teams and losing to good ones. Then again, I suppose they need these games more than anyone else so maybe they'll win. I don't know.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
There was a time, and I think it was true, where John Calipari was a pretty terrible coach. He won because he could recruit, but to call him a great coach was a pretty big stretch. When he won his first national title with that Kentucky team I thought "Man he's lucky. All the best talent and they're all unselfish too. He's lucky Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist don't care about getting the ball." Now, however, he's done it again with an even more talented group. It's clear he's got a skill here. You can boil down a coach to three basic pieces: recruiting, roster management (including player development), and game planning. Calipari has aced two of the three, and is probably average at the third. Hard to argue he shouldn't be called a great coach at this point.
FAVORITE: Kentucky. Duh. Besides the undefeated record, Kentucky finished #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SEC play, and #1 and #8 in DE and OE in the entire country for the season. Kenpom's top 5 players in the conference is made up of 4 Kentucky guys. Yeah, they got pushed to OT by inferior foes in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but that was back in early January. Since then they've only had five of sixteen games end with a margin in single digits. They're the most talented team in the country and they're peaking. Great.
SLEEPER: Florida. Simply because it's hard for me to believe a Billy Donovan led Gator team could be this bad. I mean their final record was 15-16, which means they aren't even eligible for the NIT. Bizarre. They can still play defense, just .907 points per possession, which ranks 9th in the country this year, and most of their losses have been extremely close so they're not too far from turning it around - only Kentucky has beaten them by double figures since mid-January. A lot of bad luck for this team, maybe things tip here.
THE PICK: Kentucky. Duh. Again. It's going to take some extraordinary circumstances for Kentucky to lose this year. The most interesting game for them will be in round 2, where they will probably face the best team they've played since Arkansas over a month ago. The eight or nine seed will be someone along the lines of North Carolina State or Ohio State, and they'd be a second or third place team in the SEC. I'm interested to see Kentucky against some top competition again, but I can't fathom not picking them to not only win the SEC Tournament, but the NCAA Tournament as well.
SOUTHLAND:
The Southland is not dissimilar to the Ohio Valley - there's a great team here, one that dominated the conference, in this case going 17-1. A team that rates well at kenpom at #43 (Murray State is #77), and a team that has no chance at an at-large bid because of the weak conference competition and a bad non-conference schedule (though they do have a win over Memphis and an overtime loss to Northern Iowa). Yes, Stephen F. Austin is essentially Murray State all over again - they can win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, but they have no margin for error to get there.
FAVORITE: Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks are back again, once again dominating the Southland by playing pressing like crazy (#4 in creating turnovers this year), and passing (#4 in assist percentage) and shooting the ball well (#10 in eFG). Last year they finished the regular season 29-2 and 18-0 in conference, won the conference tournament, and went on to beat VCU in an overtime thriller in round 1. Hopefully they can get through again, because this could legitimately be a Sweet 16 team. No lie.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Even though SFA swept Northwestern State this season, the Demons game looks like it could give the Lumberjacks fits. They're the fastest team in the conference so SFA's pace won't throw them (though the majority of the conference is pretty fast anyway), they don't turn the ball over at all, so that could cut Austin's advantage down, and they're a super efficient scoring team so they could score enough points to keep up with the Lumberjacks. Now, their defense is horrible so they'll have to score a ton to keep up with what SFA will put up, but still I'd rather see Northwestern State knocked off before they get a shot at Austin in the semifinals.
THE PICK: Stephen F Austin. We've already lost two potential giant killers in Iona and Murray State, please don't take our Lumberjacks away from us as well. With two of their big scorers back from last year's team we need these guys back in the tournament - they're fun as hell.
SWAC:
Pretty much always the bottom ranked conference at kenpom year after year and usually with some teams not eligible for the post season because of ARP issues, this year the SWAC is the bottom ranked conference at kenpom and is dealing with some teams not being eligible for the postseason due to ARP issues. There are 10 teams in this mess of a conference, and four of them - Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, and Grambling - are ineligible for post season play. They all get to participate in the SWAC Tournament, though Southern, the second place team in the league, is the only one with much of a chance to win. And then send the loser of the championship to the NCAAs. Unless they're ineligible too. Then I don't know what happens. Just disband the SWAC already.
FAVORITE: Texas Southern. Last season the Tigers rode LaSalle and WVU transfer Aaric Murray and a few other transfers to a SWAC Ttile and a berth in the First Four (lost to Cal Poly). This year, the returning Madarious Gibbs is joined by a handful of transfers, and despite a whole lot of roster turnover they're in position to make it back to the First Four. Don't forget, Texas Southern hasn't just beaten up on their conference foes - they have wins this year over Michigan State and Kansas State. I'm not sure how though. They're terrible at everything.
SLEEPER: Alabama State. The Hornets were #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SWAC play this year, while Texas Southern was #1 in offensive but #5 in defensive. They did get swept by Texas Southern this year, but they pretty much handled everyone else.
THE PICK: Texas Southern. Their stat sheet looks horrible, but they have those wins over Michigan State and Kansas State and they did win the regular season crown. Anything can happen with teams that are this bad, so sticking with the chalk makes sense. Or just throw a dart, but make sure it doesn't hit an ineligible team.
Whew. That was a lot. I'm tired.
Showing posts with label Pac 10. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pac 10. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Even More Tournament Information
Congrats go out to Long Island, South Dakota State, and Valpo for grabbing their league's autobids last night. Absolutely nothing else of significance happened. I, for one, can't wait to hear way too many stories about Nate Wolters as we wait for the real tournament to get going. Here's what's kicking off Wednesday.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12. After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year. The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE: UCLA. Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title. Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team. Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four. The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss.
SLEEPER: Washington. Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington. Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK: Cal. They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him. Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball. They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC. Outside of Florida these teams are awful. Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again. Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history. I'm not kidding. They lost to Vanderbilt by 41. At home. Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE: Florida. The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson). Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players. That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble. Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas. The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville. They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC. Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK: Ole Miss. The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament. They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible. In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two. Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever. This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time. Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39. Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57. This is a stunningly bad team. It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern. They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State. So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating. Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER: Jackson State. Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern. With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk. They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312. I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK: Southern. It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons). This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach). They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency. And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA. You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina? God that would be fun.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin. The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill. I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay. Hell.
CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else. Again. Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid. What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it. The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE: Memphis. When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else. The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings. Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament. This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER: Houston. If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games. Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out. Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK: Memphis. Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early. Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse. Probably time to shut 'er down.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12. After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year. The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE: UCLA. Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title. Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team. Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four. The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss.
SLEEPER: Washington. Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington. Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK: Cal. They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him. Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball. They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC. Outside of Florida these teams are awful. Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again. Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history. I'm not kidding. They lost to Vanderbilt by 41. At home. Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE: Florida. The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson). Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players. That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble. Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas. The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville. They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC. Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK: Ole Miss. The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament. They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible. In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two. Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever. This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time. Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39. Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57. This is a stunningly bad team. It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern. They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State. So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating. Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER: Jackson State. Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern. With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk. They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312. I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK: Southern. It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons). This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach). They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency. And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA. You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina? God that would be fun.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin. The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill. I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay. Hell.
CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else. Again. Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid. What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it. The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE: Memphis. When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else. The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings. Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament. This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER: Houston. If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games. Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out. Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK: Memphis. Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early. Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse. Probably time to shut 'er down.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Lafayette (and some general college hoops stuff)
Let's get this out of the way: Lafayette is bad. Like, really, really bad. All five wins this year (vs. 8 losses) have come at home vs. terrible teams, including a non-D1 school. The only decent teams they've played this year are Kentucky (lost by 52 yes 52), Maryland (lost by 9), Princeton (lost by 19), and Long Island twice (they split somehow). Kentucky shot 65% against them. They've given up 80+ points five times this year despite not being an uptempo squad. Of the 347 Division I teams, they rank 313th in 2-pt field goal defense, 323rd in 3-pt defense, and 311th in total defensive efficiency. They're a little better with the ball thanks to good three-point shooting (hit 36%) and great free-throw shooting (76.4% - 21st in the country) but they better take advantage of any shots they can get off because they don't take care of the basketball (227th in turnovers) or rebound their misses (316th in OReb %). They don't have a single player averaging more than 4.3 rebounds per game, and it's not like they make it into a group effort because they're 324th in the country in rebounds per game. They're horrible. Kenpom predicts the Gophers to win this one 85-55. That might end up being generous.
They've got a handful of semi-interesting players, I guess. Seth Hinrichs is a 6-7 guard who averages 14 per game, and Dan Trist is a highly efficient (55% FG) power forward who also averages 14 per. Tony Johnson is the point guard who averages a respectable five assists per game and was the only Leopard to hit double digits in scoring against Kentucky, and Joey Ptasinsky is a three-point chucker who hit seven against Morehead State. But in reality it's an undersized, undermanned, and under-talented team going against one of the ten best teams in the country (yeah, I said it). Lafayette could keep it interesting because they move the ball well (assists on 60% on their FGs, 54th in the country), shoot well, and hit all their free throws and in previous years that's the kind of thing that would worry me. Not this year, however. Lafayette's inability to rebound and the Gophers dominating defense will collide to make this an absolute ass-kicking of the highest order. Get ready to see a whole lot of Kendal Shell. More college basketball thoughts after the girls.
Gophers 90, Lafayette 52.
- I wish you could bet on things like "Jabari Parker is going to dominate next year." He just announced he's going to attend Duke (over Michigan State, BYU, Stanford, and Florida) and he's going to thrive their. Guy is like a more athletic version of Carmelo Anthony. Granted I'm only basing this on some highlights I've seen because I've haven't watched a game of his because only weirdos watch high school basketball, but that was enough to convince me that Duke will win the National Championship next season. Look man, I'm not happy about it either but I'm just reporting the facts. Maybe we'll get lucky and somebody will pull a miracle upset in the tournament. Seems likely, actually.
- I'm so disappointed in the Ohio Bobcats. I thought they'd be good enough this year to get an NCAA at-large bid (if they didn't win the MAC) and even ranked them as the 26th best team in the country this year before the season started. After starting the season 6-0 (with decent wins over Richmond and St. Bonnie mixed in) things have fallen apart with the Bobcats going 1-4. They missed out on a chance to add another top 100 type win by losing to UMass, missed their shot at a big-time marquee win by getting killed against Memphis, and threw two very ugly wins on the ledger dropping games to Winthrop (RPI 211) and Robert Morris. With a weak conference again this year (Akron is the only other decent team) Ohio absolutely has to beat Oklahoma next week in their last non-conference shot at a Top 100 win and then will have to roll through the MAC at pretty close to undefeated to get a bid if they don't win the conference tournament. Although, really, that Winthrop loss and the rest of this stretch say it might be too late.
- After a little bit of a dick tease that the Pac-10 was going to be back to being relevant this year after what feels like 10 years of shittiness they're clearly going for the shittiness thing again. UCLA was supposed to be a top 10 team but is in shambles (with a loss to Cal Poly) and will likely get their coach fired soon. Colorado and Cal got off to great starts, but Colorado needed double overtime to beat Texas Southern, lost to Wyoming, and got crushed by Kansas and Cal lost three straight against legit competition including getting absolutely destroyed by a terrible Wisconsin squad. USC had their sites on a NCAA Tournament bid but has been a total train wreck, Stanford hasn't won a single meaningful game and lost to Belmont, and Washington has lost to Albany and Nevada. Other than Arizona (fool's gold, trust me) and Oregon (their win over UNLV was more impressive than the loss at UTEP was harmful) I don't know that there's a team in this conference who can win an NCAA Tournament game, assuming anybody else can even get there. But I suppose we should be used to this. The Pac-12 is just awful at hoops now.
- Obviously it will all come down to match-ups so this isn't a prediction per se, but these are the teams I think are most likely to make the Sweet 16 this year: Indiana, Duke, Michigan, Syracuse, Minnesota, Louisville, Florida, Kansas, Gonzaga, VCU, New Mexico, and Creighton. No that's not 16 but I can't find 16. These 12 I would be willing to bet will make up at least half the Sweet 16. I'm too tired and drunk to figure out how big a limb that is to go out on, but I'm out on it any way and I'm loving every minute of it.
- The NCAA is suspending Texas guard Myck Kabongo for the entire season. Why, you might ask? Sounds like he might have had some dealings with an agent and/or had a workout paid for by someone when he was flirting with entering the NBA Draft last season. But wait, you'd say, I thought you only got like a 10 game suspension for that kind of stuff, and you'd be right. The NCAA, however, has brought the hammer down on Kabongo because he wasn't immediately forthcoming with all the information, similar to when they clamped down on my main man Dez Bryant. You know, people always talk about how guys like Bud Selig and Roger Goodell are too heavy handed, but the NCAA is a total joke. They make billions of dollars off student athletes and then rule them with an iron fist. I was going to write more but I can feel my train of thought going right off the rails as I'm trying to watch The League right now as well. Effin' Rafi.
Yeah that's about it. Should be plenty. For those who don't believe in Twitter you'll notice that on the right hand column my tweets are showing up over there so you can read them. Much thanks to Stroms for the help.
They've got a handful of semi-interesting players, I guess. Seth Hinrichs is a 6-7 guard who averages 14 per game, and Dan Trist is a highly efficient (55% FG) power forward who also averages 14 per. Tony Johnson is the point guard who averages a respectable five assists per game and was the only Leopard to hit double digits in scoring against Kentucky, and Joey Ptasinsky is a three-point chucker who hit seven against Morehead State. But in reality it's an undersized, undermanned, and under-talented team going against one of the ten best teams in the country (yeah, I said it). Lafayette could keep it interesting because they move the ball well (assists on 60% on their FGs, 54th in the country), shoot well, and hit all their free throws and in previous years that's the kind of thing that would worry me. Not this year, however. Lafayette's inability to rebound and the Gophers dominating defense will collide to make this an absolute ass-kicking of the highest order. Get ready to see a whole lot of Kendal Shell. More college basketball thoughts after the girls.
Gophers 90, Lafayette 52.
 |
| You're not going to believe this, but there aren't a lot of Lafayette chicks pictures out there. |
- I wish you could bet on things like "Jabari Parker is going to dominate next year." He just announced he's going to attend Duke (over Michigan State, BYU, Stanford, and Florida) and he's going to thrive their. Guy is like a more athletic version of Carmelo Anthony. Granted I'm only basing this on some highlights I've seen because I've haven't watched a game of his because only weirdos watch high school basketball, but that was enough to convince me that Duke will win the National Championship next season. Look man, I'm not happy about it either but I'm just reporting the facts. Maybe we'll get lucky and somebody will pull a miracle upset in the tournament. Seems likely, actually.
- I'm so disappointed in the Ohio Bobcats. I thought they'd be good enough this year to get an NCAA at-large bid (if they didn't win the MAC) and even ranked them as the 26th best team in the country this year before the season started. After starting the season 6-0 (with decent wins over Richmond and St. Bonnie mixed in) things have fallen apart with the Bobcats going 1-4. They missed out on a chance to add another top 100 type win by losing to UMass, missed their shot at a big-time marquee win by getting killed against Memphis, and threw two very ugly wins on the ledger dropping games to Winthrop (RPI 211) and Robert Morris. With a weak conference again this year (Akron is the only other decent team) Ohio absolutely has to beat Oklahoma next week in their last non-conference shot at a Top 100 win and then will have to roll through the MAC at pretty close to undefeated to get a bid if they don't win the conference tournament. Although, really, that Winthrop loss and the rest of this stretch say it might be too late.
- After a little bit of a dick tease that the Pac-10 was going to be back to being relevant this year after what feels like 10 years of shittiness they're clearly going for the shittiness thing again. UCLA was supposed to be a top 10 team but is in shambles (with a loss to Cal Poly) and will likely get their coach fired soon. Colorado and Cal got off to great starts, but Colorado needed double overtime to beat Texas Southern, lost to Wyoming, and got crushed by Kansas and Cal lost three straight against legit competition including getting absolutely destroyed by a terrible Wisconsin squad. USC had their sites on a NCAA Tournament bid but has been a total train wreck, Stanford hasn't won a single meaningful game and lost to Belmont, and Washington has lost to Albany and Nevada. Other than Arizona (fool's gold, trust me) and Oregon (their win over UNLV was more impressive than the loss at UTEP was harmful) I don't know that there's a team in this conference who can win an NCAA Tournament game, assuming anybody else can even get there. But I suppose we should be used to this. The Pac-12 is just awful at hoops now.
- Obviously it will all come down to match-ups so this isn't a prediction per se, but these are the teams I think are most likely to make the Sweet 16 this year: Indiana, Duke, Michigan, Syracuse, Minnesota, Louisville, Florida, Kansas, Gonzaga, VCU, New Mexico, and Creighton. No that's not 16 but I can't find 16. These 12 I would be willing to bet will make up at least half the Sweet 16. I'm too tired and drunk to figure out how big a limb that is to go out on, but I'm out on it any way and I'm loving every minute of it.
- The NCAA is suspending Texas guard Myck Kabongo for the entire season. Why, you might ask? Sounds like he might have had some dealings with an agent and/or had a workout paid for by someone when he was flirting with entering the NBA Draft last season. But wait, you'd say, I thought you only got like a 10 game suspension for that kind of stuff, and you'd be right. The NCAA, however, has brought the hammer down on Kabongo because he wasn't immediately forthcoming with all the information, similar to when they clamped down on my main man Dez Bryant. You know, people always talk about how guys like Bud Selig and Roger Goodell are too heavy handed, but the NCAA is a total joke. They make billions of dollars off student athletes and then rule them with an iron fist. I was going to write more but I can feel my train of thought going right off the rails as I'm trying to watch The League right now as well. Effin' Rafi.
Yeah that's about it. Should be plenty. For those who don't believe in Twitter you'll notice that on the right hand column my tweets are showing up over there so you can read them. Much thanks to Stroms for the help.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Week in Review - 3/5/2012
So MLB in their infinite wisdom has decided to add a second wild card team beginning this season whereby the first round of the playoffs will consist on one game in each league between the two wild card teams, in an attempt to cash in on the excitement the Game 163s have generated the last few years in a move that was almost certainly driven by the almighty dollar.
That being said, I like it. Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner. Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up. I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Chip Armelin. I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era. He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team. I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score. For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive.
2. Colonial Conference. Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do. The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week. Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point. Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe. I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best. [NOTE: VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them. I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid. They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]
3. Indiana Hoosiers. When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it. Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe. Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it. Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over. The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year. What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought. They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered. I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats. Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February. The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45). You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong. Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Ruh roh. I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to. I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level. And then Duke won in Chapel Hill. And something snapped. The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely). I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that. And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks. Or let it. More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.
WHO SUCKED
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Lemme get this straight. First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him. Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year? So let's see. Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season. From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per. You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15? You're telling me he wouldn't take that? Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first. Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.
2. Wichita State. Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act). First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out. Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg. If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes.
3. The Pac-12. I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner. Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid. Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112). Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock. If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league. At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight. Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.
4. Iona Gaels. Well shit. I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs. That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada). They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here. If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.
5. Seton Hall Pirates. As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher." Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL. They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap. Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead. Do it for the children.
And with that I'm out of here. Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake. Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too. So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again. I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy. Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up. You hope.
Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford. Dawger finished dead last.
That being said, I like it. Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner. Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up. I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Chip Armelin. I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era. He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team. I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score. For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive.
2. Colonial Conference. Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do. The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week. Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point. Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe. I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best. [NOTE: VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them. I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid. They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]
3. Indiana Hoosiers. When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it. Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe. Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it. Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over. The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year. What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought. They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered. I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats. Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February. The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45). You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong. Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Ruh roh. I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to. I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level. And then Duke won in Chapel Hill. And something snapped. The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely). I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that. And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks. Or let it. More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.
WHO SUCKED
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Lemme get this straight. First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him. Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year? So let's see. Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season. From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per. You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15? You're telling me he wouldn't take that? Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first. Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.
2. Wichita State. Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act). First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out. Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg. If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes.
3. The Pac-12. I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner. Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid. Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112). Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock. If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league. At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight. Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.
4. Iona Gaels. Well shit. I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs. That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada). They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here. If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.
5. Seton Hall Pirates. As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher." Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL. They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap. Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead. Do it for the children.
And with that I'm out of here. Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake. Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too. So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again. I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy. Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up. You hope.
Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford. Dawger finished dead last.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Week in Review: 2-27/2012
I have no idea what to say or how to say it. We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again. That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road. To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin. They've checked out.
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was toodrunk tired to actually look it up
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was too
Sunday, November 27, 2011
God Mother Effing Hell
I'm sitting here right now watching Trevor Mbakwe cry, which I'm guessing means that this isn't a knee tweak, isn't a minor bump, and his season and by extension the Gophers' season is over. I actually have a lot of thoughts on the tournament that I wanted to get into, but after this I really don't feel like it and plus I have to go spend some time taking every single implement that could be used to damage home or person and lock them up before the constant rage and disappointment of being a Minnesota Sports Fan gets to me. I mean, really? A real live legit All-American candidate and this happens? A kid who seems to have put a questionable past behind him and has it all turned around with a possible NBA future and then this? This blows. I already had most of this crap written so I'll just leave it up here, but jesus this sucks.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Gopher football. Pardon my french, but what the fuck was that? I don't exactly follow the gopher football team super closely because they're terrible and I can only dedicate my time to a certain number of leagues/teams, but because they're the Gophers I try to check in as often as I can. And they've been brutal 99% of the time I've watched them. Then on Saturday due to a combination of unfortunate circumstances I ended up at the game and holy crap that did not look anything like the team I've seen most of the year. The defense was '85 Bears-ish and held Illinois to negative yards until their final drive of the 1st half, and MarQueis Gray suddenly figured out how to run/pass at the proper time and in the proper proportion. I'd talk about the second half but it was so goddamn cold we had to leave before I had to cut off my other hand, but man, talk about leaving 'em wanting more. Pretty sure we're talking Rose Bowl next year. Can't wait.
2. Missouri Tigers. The Tigers are just straight up smoking fools, and they aren't just blowing out cupcakes, they also won the CBE Classic by beating Notre Dame by 29 and Cal by 39. I mean Notre Dame and Cal aren't exactly anybody's sleepers, although Cal was ranked #18, but those are decent, NCAA Tournament possibility teams and Missouri is just running right by them. And I do mean run by, because this squad is top 23 in terms of tempo and top 7 in offensive efficiency, which means they're putting up a ton of points. They may run into a little issue with a lack of size because they lost one of their only two real big men to injury for the year and routinely run with four guards (Gophers take notes) but this team is a legit sleeper.
3. UNLV Runnin' Rebels. Well like whoa. I guess it isn't all that stunning that UNLV would win the Las Vegas Invitational given that it's held in Las Vegas, but to do it by beating North Carolina in the championship game and in convincing fashion is quite impressive. It was actually quite stunning how easily the Rebels were able to score, particularly in the second half. UNLV has some pretty good guards in Oscar Bellfield, Anthony Marshall, and Chace Stanback, but it was pretty amazing to see how the Tar Heel guards couldn't stop their dribble penetration, which led to kick-outs for open shots and a team total of 22 assists on the game - it was like watching the Gophers try to stop Dayton, but this is UNC here. Actually, UNLV has two guys who both averages over 5 assists per game which is pretty crazy. And with New Mexico looking less good than I thought, the Rebs might have become the MWC favorite.
WHO SUCKED
1. Memphis Tigers. And here I thought Memphis was back. They roll into the Maui Classic ranked #8, the second-highest ranked team in the field, and lay a gigantic egg. First they get absolutely rolled by Michigan - who is looking good but not great or anything - in a game they only lost by eight but were never really in. They then follow that up with a 2 OT victory against an absolutely dreadful Tennessee team (seriously that team deserves it's own section here as well), and finally lost to a rebuilding Georgetown team in the consolation game. Seriously, the Tigers have all kinds of crazy talented guards and seemingly have no idea how to use them. I'm starting to think Jsoh Pastner is a great recruiter and a terrible game coach. Similar to, oh, I don't know, John Calipari? All Pastner needs to do is learn how to cheat better and he'll be a clone.
2. Iowa Hawkeyes. Jesus Christ, just when you think the B1G 10 is looking pretty stellar and maybe have a great year, here comes Iowa to stumble through the door like that drunken uncle who was at Thanksgiving who started out by farting and insulting the food, then hit on your mom before crashing through a plate glass window chasing an invisible flying burrito. We all have one, and now the B10 does to because Iowa lost to Campbell by 16. Campbell. By 16. Holy shit, amiright? I looked it up and Campbell hasn't beaten a major team, even if we include the MVC, MWC, A10, CUSA, WCC, and CAA, going back to 2001 which is as far back as ESPN has records and I don't really feel like going any further. Also technically they beat Auburn last year but that doesn't count, and they never beat anybody else. And they just beat Iowa by double-figures. God that's so awesome. Fuck Iowa.
3. The Pac-12. I'm getting sick of having to point this out every year, but once again the conference is just garbage. The conferences overall record is 38-30. The best team, Cal just got crushed by Missouri, while the other preseason contenders aren't doing much better - Washington lost by double-figures against St. Louis, Arizona lost to a D-II team and can't' beat anyone good, and UCLA is 1-4 with losses to Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee. Oregon State and Stanford are looking like sleepers and Oregon and Colorado haven't done anything offensive, but haven't impressed at all either, and the bottom feeders aren't going to be helping the league's RPI - Utah is 1-5 with their BEST loss against Harvard, Wash State is 2-4 and just lost to UC-Riverside, Arizona State is 2-4 with a loss to Pepperdine, and USC put up just 36 points in an ugly loss to Cal Poly. I know they lost a bunch of players to the NBA over the last few years but I mean come on. And speaking of:
The NBA is back the NBA is back the NBA is back!
I seriously have no idea why I'm so happy about this. I literally watch around 6 regular season games a year. I guess there's just something about knowing there's professional basketballing going on in the background. Like I don't need to sit there and watch the games, but knowing they're going on in the periphery of my brain is just comforting in some way. It's kind of like the CIA and shit. I know they're doing all kinds of "illegal" things to help keep me safe, but I don't care. As long as I don't know about it and I don't get blowed up or whatever I'm happy.
Ok so that's really not the same thing at all. Too late though. Go NBA! Ricky Rubio and whatever!
Say your prayers or whatever that Mbakwe's MRI turns out favorably. But I fear that seems unlikely. Suck.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Gopher football. Pardon my french, but what the fuck was that? I don't exactly follow the gopher football team super closely because they're terrible and I can only dedicate my time to a certain number of leagues/teams, but because they're the Gophers I try to check in as often as I can. And they've been brutal 99% of the time I've watched them. Then on Saturday due to a combination of unfortunate circumstances I ended up at the game and holy crap that did not look anything like the team I've seen most of the year. The defense was '85 Bears-ish and held Illinois to negative yards until their final drive of the 1st half, and MarQueis Gray suddenly figured out how to run/pass at the proper time and in the proper proportion. I'd talk about the second half but it was so goddamn cold we had to leave before I had to cut off my other hand, but man, talk about leaving 'em wanting more. Pretty sure we're talking Rose Bowl next year. Can't wait.
2. Missouri Tigers. The Tigers are just straight up smoking fools, and they aren't just blowing out cupcakes, they also won the CBE Classic by beating Notre Dame by 29 and Cal by 39. I mean Notre Dame and Cal aren't exactly anybody's sleepers, although Cal was ranked #18, but those are decent, NCAA Tournament possibility teams and Missouri is just running right by them. And I do mean run by, because this squad is top 23 in terms of tempo and top 7 in offensive efficiency, which means they're putting up a ton of points. They may run into a little issue with a lack of size because they lost one of their only two real big men to injury for the year and routinely run with four guards (Gophers take notes) but this team is a legit sleeper.
3. UNLV Runnin' Rebels. Well like whoa. I guess it isn't all that stunning that UNLV would win the Las Vegas Invitational given that it's held in Las Vegas, but to do it by beating North Carolina in the championship game and in convincing fashion is quite impressive. It was actually quite stunning how easily the Rebels were able to score, particularly in the second half. UNLV has some pretty good guards in Oscar Bellfield, Anthony Marshall, and Chace Stanback, but it was pretty amazing to see how the Tar Heel guards couldn't stop their dribble penetration, which led to kick-outs for open shots and a team total of 22 assists on the game - it was like watching the Gophers try to stop Dayton, but this is UNC here. Actually, UNLV has two guys who both averages over 5 assists per game which is pretty crazy. And with New Mexico looking less good than I thought, the Rebs might have become the MWC favorite.
WHO SUCKED
1. Memphis Tigers. And here I thought Memphis was back. They roll into the Maui Classic ranked #8, the second-highest ranked team in the field, and lay a gigantic egg. First they get absolutely rolled by Michigan - who is looking good but not great or anything - in a game they only lost by eight but were never really in. They then follow that up with a 2 OT victory against an absolutely dreadful Tennessee team (seriously that team deserves it's own section here as well), and finally lost to a rebuilding Georgetown team in the consolation game. Seriously, the Tigers have all kinds of crazy talented guards and seemingly have no idea how to use them. I'm starting to think Jsoh Pastner is a great recruiter and a terrible game coach. Similar to, oh, I don't know, John Calipari? All Pastner needs to do is learn how to cheat better and he'll be a clone.
2. Iowa Hawkeyes. Jesus Christ, just when you think the B1G 10 is looking pretty stellar and maybe have a great year, here comes Iowa to stumble through the door like that drunken uncle who was at Thanksgiving who started out by farting and insulting the food, then hit on your mom before crashing through a plate glass window chasing an invisible flying burrito. We all have one, and now the B10 does to because Iowa lost to Campbell by 16. Campbell. By 16. Holy shit, amiright? I looked it up and Campbell hasn't beaten a major team, even if we include the MVC, MWC, A10, CUSA, WCC, and CAA, going back to 2001 which is as far back as ESPN has records and I don't really feel like going any further. Also technically they beat Auburn last year but that doesn't count, and they never beat anybody else. And they just beat Iowa by double-figures. God that's so awesome. Fuck Iowa.
3. The Pac-12. I'm getting sick of having to point this out every year, but once again the conference is just garbage. The conferences overall record is 38-30. The best team, Cal just got crushed by Missouri, while the other preseason contenders aren't doing much better - Washington lost by double-figures against St. Louis, Arizona lost to a D-II team and can't' beat anyone good, and UCLA is 1-4 with losses to Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee. Oregon State and Stanford are looking like sleepers and Oregon and Colorado haven't done anything offensive, but haven't impressed at all either, and the bottom feeders aren't going to be helping the league's RPI - Utah is 1-5 with their BEST loss against Harvard, Wash State is 2-4 and just lost to UC-Riverside, Arizona State is 2-4 with a loss to Pepperdine, and USC put up just 36 points in an ugly loss to Cal Poly. I know they lost a bunch of players to the NBA over the last few years but I mean come on. And speaking of:
The NBA is back the NBA is back the NBA is back!
I seriously have no idea why I'm so happy about this. I literally watch around 6 regular season games a year. I guess there's just something about knowing there's professional basketballing going on in the background. Like I don't need to sit there and watch the games, but knowing they're going on in the periphery of my brain is just comforting in some way. It's kind of like the CIA and shit. I know they're doing all kinds of "illegal" things to help keep me safe, but I don't care. As long as I don't know about it and I don't get blowed up or whatever I'm happy.
Ok so that's really not the same thing at all. Too late though. Go NBA! Ricky Rubio and whatever!
Say your prayers or whatever that Mbakwe's MRI turns out favorably. But I fear that seems unlikely. Suck.
Monday, October 3, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - The Pac 12
Here's what you need to know about the Pac-12 this year - they're going to be bad again. Once again, the Pac teams have been hit hard by attrition and although they continue to pull in a good share of stud recruits, the players are leaving more quickly than they can be replaced. If there was an easy way to look this up without having to straight count it or if there was a page with bids by conference by year, but there's not, so instead I'll just point out how the Pac has struggled even getting 2-3 teams bids in the last few seasons.
They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss. Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico. Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league. They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.
Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.
1. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS. Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard. And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season. Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here. And speaking of running.........
2. UCLA BRUINS. Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department. Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition. Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive. The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina. Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility. As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac. And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent. So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).
3. WASHINGTON HUSKIES. Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning. No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue. And thank god. Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to. Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina. The tempo is just out of this world. Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!
4. ARIZONA WILDCATS. This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone. Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall). Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.
5. STANFORD CARDINAL. Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always. Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability. The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.
6. OREGON DUCKS. I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman. I'm just kidding - it's the attrition. But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What? It counts. Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene. Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system. Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year. Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.
7. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS. There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State. Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense. He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge. The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix. King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice. Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.
8. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS. Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA. What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey. They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist. Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly. If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.
9. OREGON STATE BEAVERS. I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old. Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country. Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in. So yeah, not a sleeper.
10. USC TROJANS. Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith. Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career. Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.
11. COLORADO BUFFALOES. Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year. Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT. Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement. Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop. I heard it's a fun town though.
12. UTAH UTES. Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power? Well that's not really relevant here. Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season. They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn. Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss. Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico. Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league. They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.
Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.
1. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS. Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard. And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season. Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here. And speaking of running.........
2. UCLA BRUINS. Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department. Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition. Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive. The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina. Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility. As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac. And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent. So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).
3. WASHINGTON HUSKIES. Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning. No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue. And thank god. Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to. Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina. The tempo is just out of this world. Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!
4. ARIZONA WILDCATS. This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone. Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall). Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.
5. STANFORD CARDINAL. Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always. Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability. The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.
6. OREGON DUCKS. I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman. I'm just kidding - it's the attrition. But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What? It counts. Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene. Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system. Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year. Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.
7. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS. There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State. Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense. He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge. The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix. King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice. Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.
8. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS. Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA. What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey. They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist. Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly. If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.
9. OREGON STATE BEAVERS. I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old. Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country. Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in. So yeah, not a sleeper.
10. USC TROJANS. Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith. Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career. Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.
11. COLORADO BUFFALOES. Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year. Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT. Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement. Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop. I heard it's a fun town though.
12. UTAH UTES. Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power? Well that's not really relevant here. Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season. They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn. Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
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