It's Football Time!

It's that time of the year again.  The time where oversized humanoid types put on ineffective padding and run into each other over and over again at full speed - Yes, football.  Although I generally deal with more elegant sports like baseball and basketball here, I do like to dip my tow into the football waters once in a while because hey, more clicks and also because I really like predicting things since I'm almost always right.  So why not a quick look at the Vikings and the NFL, and then a preview of this weekend's Gopher football game since I'll be in attendance.  I'm not sure who they're playing but I'll look that up later.

So the Vikings.  The state's favorite squadron.  What are the betting expectations for the Vikings this NFL season? (look for the best odds from Sportbet.com).  Sportbet has the over/under for wins at 6.5, and if I'm a betting man, and I am, I'm going for the over (cautiously).  Matt Cassell is boring, and far more boring than my guy Teddy Bridgewater, but he is a competent QB which is a major upgrade from your guy Christian Ponder.  Cordarrelle Patterson is supposed to do that thing everyone says and become good, and don't forget Greg Jennings didn't just forget how to be a major league receiver, it's just Ponder did things like throw the ball into the ground and throw the ball into the ground again.  Cassell tends to do things more like throwing the ball in the air.  That's a plus.  And of course if Bridgewater ever gets to start the Vikings will start putting up 50+ points per game, but that's a given.

A lot of people seem to be excited about an upgraded defense, which makes sense, since the team is going from a defensive minded coach to a defensive minded coach and somehow this new one is better than the old one I guess.  I don't know.  Personally, I'm more excited about the personnel changes.  I mean, these guys have some sweet names:  Captain Munnerlyn is one of the best names in the league, and Linval Joseph isn't that far behind except that he's slower now after getting shot.  Really though those guys are upgrades, Anthony Barr has looked good this preseason, Harrison Smith is healthy, and Sharrif Floyd should be better because he can't be worse.  Plus Xavier Rhodes is awesome.

What's realistic for the Vikings?  If Cassell starts all year they'll be somewhere around 8-8.  If Bridgewater starts they'll win every game he plays, up to 15-2 and a Super Bowl victory.

Other quick NFL hits:

• The Panthers will be terrible
• The Cardinals will be the surprise breakout team, led by Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington
• Dallas will be a complete dumpster fire, but they'll give up so many points that Dez Bryant will have a career year and one of the best receiving years in history
• Atlanta will be a playoff team with a bounce back year from Matt Ryan
• The Eagles will regress badly
• The Packers will be annoyingly good and probably make the Super Bowl
• The Colts will win the Super Bowl
• Cleveland will win 3 games or less
• Derek Carr will win Rookie of the Year
• C.J. Spiller will re-breakout.
• Matthew Stafford will have even more weapons, put up even better stats, and still somehow screw the Lions into a 6-win season
• Ryan Tannehill will become a top 10 type QB

All of this will come true.

Now onto the college game, which is also fun!  And the internet tells me our beloved Gopher footballers are going up against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.  Whoa that sounds scary!  And they're 1-0!  And they won 61-7 last week!  Are the Gophers doomed?  Is their run to the BCS playoffs over before it really even starts?  No.  MTSU beat Savannah State who once had something like a 60-game losing streak in basketball so they're probably terrible in football too.  Let's look at these "Blue" "Raiders" a little more carefully, but keep in mind I'm only looking at stats like some kind of nerd who lives in his mom's basement because I have to admit I have never seen MTSU play football.  Nor have I heard of anyone on their team.  Seriously if you want a "real" "preview" I'd check out Still Got Hope, who are back and cranking out some seriously awesome Gopher football love (they're the kind of nerds who go watch practice, so you know it's detailed info).  

Last season the Blue Raiders went 8-4 including 6-2 in the Sun Belt, probably, and made the Armed Forces Bowl where they lost to Navy 24-6.  They played two real teams and lost to North Carolina by 20 and BYU by 27.  So far the intimidation level is low to quite low.  Which I suppose it should since the Gophers are favored by 16.  

Last year they ranked 83rd in passing offense, 31st in rushing offense, and 62nd in total offense.  That's some good running, boys, but a bad passing attack may be worse as their QB has moved on to do something else.  They do have both of their top RBs and one of their top WRs back, but not having a thrower guy back and replacing him with a guy who completed 45% of his passes last year is not a positive.  This new guy, Austin Grammer (Kelsey's son), did play well against Savannah completing 15 of 17 for 250 yards, but I assume those DBs were basically played by folding chairs so whatevs.  The running backs are worth looking at since the two returnees (Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley) both had over 650 yards last season and they added a new guy, Tony Rowland, who split carries with those two in their first game.  Rowland and Whatley are both tiny (5-7) so they're both probably really fast, and Parker is built like a real running back so he's probably good and stuff.  I'd keep my eye on those guys.

Defensively they ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 107th in rushing yards allowed, which is good for Minnesota because they hate passing anyway and would rather have one of their 20 running backs or their QB who is built like a grizzly bear and throws with similar accuracy to run down your face and smash into you over and over again.  Maybe their biggest strength last season was turnover margin, where they finished 12th in the country at a +12.  Their two safeties picked off 8 passes between the two of them last year and they're both back, so probably still not a good idea to throw the ball.  

Basically both teams suck at passing and are good at running.  Whoever stops the other team from running the ball well will win and that should probably be the Gophers.  Plus all this running and stuff probably means the under 52.5 is kind of money.  So let's do this.  Just as the Gopher basketball crushed the hopes and dreams of the Middle Tennessee basketball team in the NIT two years ago, so now will these Gophers crush MTSU's dream of a National Championship. 

Gophers 28, Blue Raiders 10.  

Friday Tournaments

I was going to write a bit more about the Gophers' loss and preview this weekend's game against Purdue, but I just can't.  It's just too much.  I bought in again after the Indiana and Penn State games, and was all set to officially pronounce them a lock for the NCAA Tournament after what I figured would be a fairly easy win against Nebraska and they go out and screw me over.  Bad lineup, bad substitution patterns, bad shooting, bad defense, bad everything.  I just don't know what to say any more.  They need one more win, somewhere, before I'll feel safe, and I'll feel safer if that win is at Purdue on Saturday.  Can they go 8-10 in conference play and get in without another quality win (which would mean two Big Ten Tournament wins)?  I just don't know.

At this point losing both of the next two wouldn't surprise me, and then not hearing their name called Selection Sunday wouldn't shock me either.  Forget how many good wins they have and their RPI and SOS - look at the road record and how they're finishing up.  It's too much for me to take.  Let's just concentrate on all the awesomeness that is March and forget all about Tubby Smith until Monday.  I'm going to make an effort to not watch the game, but I'm sure I will find myself doing it anyway.  I must really hate myself.


COLONIAL CONFERENCE
Not all that long ago the Colonial was the best mid-major in all the land, what with it's VCUs and George Masons making the Final Four and ranking as either the 12 or 13th best conference every year from 2010-2012.  This year VCU is gone to the A-10, GMU is super mediocre, Old Dominion never got off the ground, and other traditional conference powers like Drexel and Hofstra have been pretty bad.  Crappy teams like Northeastern and Towson have risen to the top, and the conference overall has floundered falling to 20th.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
FAVORITE:  Northeastern.  They have the #1 seed thanks to their 14-4 record, but rank just #172 according to kenpom.  I guess that's what you can expect when everybody in a conference is terrible.  Yuck, what happened here?  Plus the team that would have had the #2 seed, Towson, is ineligible for postseason play because not enough kids graduated or something.  I guess the best thing that could happen is for George Mason to win the tournament and then a bunch of people take them to win their first round game which will definitely not happen.  Point for me. 
SLEEPER:  George Mason.  Hey look, it's George Mason!  They actually fit the sleeper mold pretty well seeing as their the #4 seed but are the highest ranked team according to kenpom.  That doesn't make them any good mind you, but this year you don't really have to be good to get out of the CAA. 
W's PICK:  Delaware.  The Blue Hens have the league's leading scorer, a guy who led the league in rebounds and blocks while shooting 54% from the floor, and have gone 10-2 in their last twelve.  Good enough for me.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
It's a familiar story here where Davidson is head and shoulders above the rest of the league.  They struggled a bit post-Curry, missing the NCAA Tournament from 2009-2011, but made it back last year and should find themselves back once again, although they're going to have to do it the hard way and win the SoCon Tournament - this is a one bid league this year, Davidson or other.
FAVORITE:  Davidson.  Although this version of Davidson isn't on the level of the Stephen Curry teams, it's probably Bob McKillop's best squad since those days.  They're not in the at large discussion due to way too many bad losses this year, but they seem to have righted the ship going 17-1 in SoCon play.  They're a good, solid, if a little boring mid-major team and there isn't much else in the conference to even challenge them.  They'll be interesting if they make it to the NCAAs because they lead the nation with a team 81% free throw percentage and they get to the line a lot.  Against the wrong, hacky team that would give them a huge advantage.  Kansas State is a very possible, and very favorable, match-up for Davidson.  Plus my 2 year old could outcoach Bruce Weber.  
SLEEPER:  College of Charleston.  Even when they aren't a very good team (22-9 isn't terrible or anything, but it's come against a pretty sorry schedule) Charleston always seems to be in the mix somehow.  I'd feel better if Bobby Cremins was still there, but of all Davidson's home conference foes only Charleston was able to keep the final margin within double digits.  Good enough for me.
W's PICK:  Davidson.  They're just so much better than everybody else in this conference.  It would be a pretty major upset if the Wildcats don't make the NCAA Tournament.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE
This is one I'll be watching closely, because there's a team here (Middle Tennessee - yes, the team the Gophers beat in the NIT quarters last year) who has taken care of business all year, but simply has had a horrific schedule - partly terrible conference and partly poor OOC scheduling - and so there resume doesn't really stack up with most other bubble teams, but I hope they can win out in the Sun Belt tourney and go to the dance.  For once, this hope is simply because I think they should be rewarded and not because I don't want to worry about another bubble team stealing a bid when they could help everyone relax and get an automatic.  Feels good. 
FAVORITE:  Middle Tennessee.  That 27-4 overall record and 19-1 in conference play is impressive, even if the Sun Belt is down a bit this year.  It's even more impressive when you consider the Blue Raiders closed out with 16 straight wins and their lone conference loss came on the road and in overtime.  Although the non-conference schedule lacks any kind of big signature win, they did beat Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and Central Florida this year so they have at least knocked off some names if nothing.  Funny, that overtime loss at Akron early in the year might be the difference between an at-large berth and heading back to the NIT.
SLEEPER:  Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Ragin' Cajuns aren't a very good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they dominate the Sun Belt statistical leaders list with two guys in the top five in scoring along with the #2 rebounder and the top assist man, top steals guy, and a top fiver in blocked shots.  Sure, all these spots on the leaderboard are really just two guys and they benefit from a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, but hey........Cajuns!
W's PICK:   Troy.  They're terrible, but because I really want Middle Tennessee to win this tournament and make it that practically guarantees they lose, and fully expect their spot to be taken by not only a terrible team, but a terrible team who plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Like a more boring Wisconsin.  Yes, that's a real thing.

MID-ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
There was a time, when we were truly degenerate gamblers, when Bogart and I could have told you anything you wanted to know about the MAAC (or the Ivy) since those were the only two conferences that played on Friday nights and we bet nearly every one of their games.  Manhattan was a juggernaut behind Luis Flores.  Niagara, Siena, and Fairfield were solid teams.  Loyola-MD and Canisius were terrible, and St. Peter's was always a wild card because they were pretty bad but had Keydren Clark so you never knew what they were gonna do.  Although we've lost touch with our beloved MAAC (we are still degenerate gamblers, don't worry) it's grown up without us because the overall league is much better than it used it be.  It's also much more boring because there isn't a dominant team this year.
FAVORITE:  Niagara.  The Purple Eagles not only have a sweet name that sounds like it was thought up by a four year old, they're also one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over (20th in the country).  That's important because when you can't shoot, and Niagara can't, it's important to maximize your possessions.   A point in Niagara's favor, however, is that they balance out their poor shooting by playing horrendous defense.
SLEEPER:  Rider.  Niagara won the league, but were swept by the Broncs (no, not Broncos - just Broncs).  They also have a pretty good player in Jonathon Thompson, who I assume is related to Jason Thompson who I am guessing is the only NBAer from Rider and was pretty much unstoppable on March Madness for playstation2 back in the day.  Yes, I played a franchise as Rider.  I told you I was obsessed with the MAAC.
W's PICK:  Iona.  Another league where there's a whole handful of teams who could legitimately win this thing.  I'm going with the Gaels because they have the best offense in the league and sport the league's best player (or at least best scorer) in Lamont Jones, formerly of Arizona.  I can see a New York senior (from Harlem) putting the gas down and bringing his New York school to the NCAA Tournament as his last hurrah.  Kind of like Trey Ziegler staying home to play for Dad at Central Michigan and then that team sucking so badly for two years his dad got fired, only the opposite.

SUMMIT LEAGUE
This league was supposed to be a battle of North and South Dakota State, just like when they fought in the Civil War, and although it certainly was, Western Illinois jumped up, using an 8-1 conference start en route to a 13-3 conference record, including a sweep over NDSU, and the #2 seed. 
FAVORITE:  South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits got the #1 seed, are the league's #1 rated offense, swept Western Illinois, and have the league's best player in Nate Wolters who might be the easiest pick for conference player of the year than any other player in any other conference.  They're pretty horrendous defensively but have made up for it by making a ton of three-pointers - two things that just scream "this team is ripe for an upset in March".
SLEEPER:  Oakland.  The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Summit to have taken a bite (lol) out of all three top seeds, splitting with each team.  They're a horrendous defensive team, but the offense obviously can be good enough to pick them up and upset anybody in the league on any given night.  Can they do this for three games?  No.
W's PICK:  North Dakota State.  The Bison have been without leading scorer Taylor Braun since mid-January due to injury, but he's back now and it doesn't look like he's missed a beat (22 pts last game).  When NDSU had Braun they started 6-0 in conference including a win over SDSU, but went just 5-4 when he was out and even without him for that stretch kenpom's still rates NDSU as the best team in the Summit by a wide margin. 

In last night's bubble-related news, Virginia and Kentucky both lost road games to bad teams which will slide them under the Gophers, almost no matter what.  At this point even if the Gophers lose the next two and UVA and Kentucky don't go on a big conference tournament run they won't catch the Gophers.  Sad that we need to actually care about that kind of thing again this year, but here we are.

Best news of the night (for a College BB fan)?  Colorado crushed Oregon to ensure they're in (Oregon is probably in too).  I like this Buffaloes team and they got screwed out of a win at Arizona earlier so I'm happy to see them in.  Worst news?  Louisiana Tech got crushed by New Mexico State for their first WAC loss, which drops them to 26-4 and 16-1 and sadly based on everything else that's probably enough to kill their at-large hopes.  That's why you have to play, you know, somebody at some point.

So that'll do it folks.  Have a good weekend and I hope all your dream come true.  Somebody text me after the Gopher game and let me know what happens because I'm sure as shit not going to watch it.*

* = of course I am.

NCAA Hoops Preview: Teams 68-60

As the college basketball season approaches, you're no doubt wondering to yourself, "Hey, when is DWG going to start in with those needlessly long college basketball conference previews that nobody really reads anyway but come with hot pictures?"  Well, I have news for you:  I'm just too busy these days to write that much about the bottom teams of Conference USA, sorry.  I can't, however, go into a college basketball season without at least writing something, so instead I will write short previews of the top 68 teams this year by my estimation, in reverse order.  Why 68, you ask?  Because when I first wrote down all the interesting teams I had 73, and 68 seems like a nice number for college basketball so I chopped off four (sorry Wichita, North Texas, Central Florida, and South Florida).  I will be posting these in chunks of however many I feel like at a time.  So here we go with #s 68 through whatever I get to.

This is an average Utah State girl.

68.  UTAH STATE AGGIES.  I understand nobody really cares about Utah State, but other than Williams Arena it's the place I've seen the most college basketball games, that arena is awesome, and the chicks there are as hot as I've seen anywhere outside of Target HQ, so USU will always get a bump from me.  Plus assuming they can find a way to replace point guard and horrible first name guy Brockeith Pane at the point they should walk to the WAC title (again).  Preston Medlin will be in the running for WAC player of the year and fellow wing Kyisean Reed might be the most athletic player in the conference since Magnum Rolle or at least from what I've seen which admittedly is not all that much because the WAC is never on TV.  In any case it should be a bounce back year for the Aggies, which will make it much more enjoyable if I'm out there for a game this year.  Well, that and the chicks, man.

67.  IOWA HAWKEYES.  It's looking like Iowa might be back, and by back I mean back to the mediocrity we've become accustomed to rather than this laughing stock status I've thoroughly enjoyed the last few seasons.  McCaffery snagged one of the better recruiting classes in the conference this year, and Roy Marble and Aaron White look like they're going to be major factors even if Aaron White doesn't look like he should be any kind of factor at all.  If Melsahn Basabe can bounce back from a sub-par sophomore year the Hawkeyes could be better than this, but I wouldn't count on it because Iowa sucks and everybody knows it. 

66.  USC TROJANS.  Good news for the Gophers, this is the only non-Battle 4 Atlantis non-conference opponent who appears on this list.  Bad news is that they might not even belong this high but I mean come on, we have to at least have the chance to believe there's a decent opponent on the slate, right?  Actually the Trojans would have probably belonged right about here, but leading scorer Maurice Jones transferred after being declared academically ineligible, and that's a bit of a ding right there.  Still, there are a couple decent returning guys and if guard Jio Fontan is fully recovered from last season's ACL injury he's really, really good.  There are also a bunch of transfers from places like Wake and Tennessee and UC-Irvine so who knows, the Trojans could be good enough to surprise.  And by surprise of course I mean surprisingly make the NIT, not the NCAA Tournament.  Make no mistake, a loss by the Gophers to these guys is a disaster. 

65.  NEVADA WOLFPACK.  The move to the Mountain West will hurt Nevada a bit short term since that conference is pretty good whereas the WAC would have been Utah State, Nevada, and that's it, but I'm sure long term it'll be good or something.  Still, Nevada has some serious fire power and should score an upset or two.  The Deonte Burton and Malik Story back court combo is the type that can win a game on it's own if they're both hot, or could completely shoot them out of a game if not.  One thing is for certain with that kind of guard tandem - I won't touch a single game bet of theirs the whole season.  Unless it's the late game.  On TV.  Ok fine, even if it's not on TV, but it WILL have to be a late game.  Probably.

 64.  MANHATTAN JASPERS.  The Jaspers haven't been relevant since the glory days of Luis Flores, but now they're back and Bogart can break out his Manhattan Jaspers t-shirt again.   They return last season's leading conference scorer and last year's Conference Defensive Player of the Year along with a few other starters and should be good enough to tangle with Loyola in the MAAC.  I'd write more but really that's all I know but I really wanted to rank Manhattan in here because god it was so much fun wagering on Manhattan on Friday nights when Flores was there.  I think they covered ever single night.

I agree with these girls.

63.  IOWA STATE CYCLONES.  Another team I may be ranking too highly but I like them and it's my blog and my rankings so screw you fascist.  Anyway, the losses will be tough to deal with especially since Royce White led the team in basically every category including assists (and Chris Allen and Scott Christopherson were scorers #2 and #3), but I have a feeling Hoiberg's transfer system is going to work out well (coming in this year:  Korie Lucious from Michigan State and Will Clyburn from Utah) in the short term, and the team's success is already paying dividends in recruiting with one ESPN Top100 recruit coming in this season and two more on-board already for 2013, which if you're scoring at home is only one fewer than Tubby's signed in his entire time with the Gophers.  That's it, I'm moving to Ames.  Plus they have a really kick-ass sandwich shop there (West End Deli, maybe?) and a "strip club" where the girls strip down to bikinis which is weird but whatever.  All that plus actual D-I level basketball.  Sounds like nirvana.

62.  UMASS MINUTEMEN.  Can UMass finally get to their first NCAA Tournament since 1998?  No, probably not since the only time that school was good was when cheater Calipari was there, but at least they should be in the mix.  They have a good start with apparent 1980's movie bully Chaz Williams back, who led the A-10 in assists last season, and if you start with a great distributor you never know how things are going to fall.  They also have basically the same entire squad back from last year's NIT Final Four team, which is both a positive and a negative, and it's a very experienced team.  Sort of the opposite of Nevada, UMass is a solid, experienced, and quality team who should be able to hang with pretty much anybody without getting blown out.  They don't play anyone particularly good this year, so I can see taking them in any game where they are +5 or worse.  Also I didn't intend for these previews to be gambling related in any way, but it turns out I have one hell of a gambling problem.

61.  MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS.  Remember last year when these guys blew through the Sun Belt like they owned the joint and were even a possible at-large team depending on how the conference tournament went?  And then they lost in their first conference tournament game to a shitty team and got bounced to the NIT where they won two games before the Gophers stomped on their heads?  Well this is basically the same team with more experience.  They do lose their leading scorer who also happened to be the conference player of the year, but should still be the best team in the conference.  The only team who should be able to challenge them is North Texas, so there's no reason Middle Tennessee shouldn't be making a trip to the NCAA Tournament this year.  You know, just like last season.

60.  ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE.  It's going to be tough to replace JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell, although less so Mitchell because he missed the team's last eleven games after being suspended.  The biggest key to the season may be freshman Devonta Pollard, a small forward who is an absolute elite player from Day 1 (#28 overall on ESPN, #22 on Rivals).  If Pollard (who is 6'8) can play in the paint Alabama's two billion good guards could surround him and make this a very good team.  If he can't, they basically have nobody else and they will suck like that 2 Broke Girls show.  There is no in between.  I refuse to allow it.