Monday's Musings

I promise that I plan to get back to doing the week in review type posts every Monday, but Easter weekend was hectic as all hell and by the time I finally got to sit down on a stupid computer it was late Sunday and I just didn't have the energy or care enough to slap together something.  Plus, that wouldn't live up to the fine tradition I've started here of high quality postings every single time.  I couldn't possibly betray you that way, gentle reader, so I just didn't type up anything.  Instead I'll just put together my thoughts into this evening's post.  Just like this:

-  Tip o' the ole cap to our buddy Grandslam for bringing this to my attention, but guess how much money Kyle Lohse is going to make this year.  Go ahead, guess.  You're way low.  It's $12 million.  Nope, not in his career, but this year alone Lohse will make $12 mother-effing million dollars.  And in 2009 and 2010 combined he made about $16 million to deliver right around a combined 200 below-average innings to the Cardinals.  This, my friends, would be why you don't suddenly throw a 4-year, $41 million extension at a pitcher with a history of mediocrity simply because he has one slighly above average season, especially when advanced metrics can tell you, if you take the time to put down the binoculars and game worn miniature scorebook pencil, that he was a little bit lucky and you can fully expect him to regress back to the same mediocre pitcher.

Now Lohse is off to a 3-1 start and coming off a gem of a 2-hit shutout against Washington (WASHINGTON!!), and has a low ERA and WHIP, but honestly you don't need advanced metrics to tell you he's not that good (note:  he's been very, very lucky so far).  He's an average pitcher at best who has just enough of a live arm that he's going to jump up and give you a good start or two here or there - he did it for the Twins, he did it for the Phillies, and he's done it before for these very same Cardinals.  But guess what?  There's not a chance in hell he's worth $12 million.


Want to know the best part?  When they extended him they also gave him a full no-trade clause.  L-O-freaking-L.  Who's running this team, McHale?  I'm expecting another extension any day.

-  And since we are on the subject of former Twins' pitcher who define mediocrity (or worse) guess who currently has a no-hitter through five innings against the Yankees?  Phil freaking Humber.  I know there's no way this can last more than another batter or two, but could there possibly be a bigger kick in the nuts?  Player acquired for former superstar who the team couldn't afford to keep who washes out pitches a no-hitter for a hated division rival against the old team's arch nemisis that's bounced them from the playoffs the last three times they've been there?  Honestly, the only way you could possibly make this worse is to have it be a playoff game.  But yeah, this will do.  Ouch.

- Greivis Vasquez plays a meaningful role for the Grizzlies?  I had no idea (but I guess why would I when it pertains to the Memphis NBA team).  I've been watching this game for about four game minutes and he's hit two buckets as well as a three-pointer.  I think he might be MVP.

-   Humber now through six.  Still hitless.  If he can get through the seventh (Granderson, Texeira, A-Rod) he'll have a chance.  Of course, that still lives Cano.  Wait.  I got it.  He's going get all the way to the last out, which will be Jeter.  Jeter will break it up. All announcers/journalists everywhere will collectively mess their shorts to race to their typewriters to write up an article about how tough he is and his intangibles.  One journalist will out-crazy them all by writing about how he believes "some part of Jeter really didn't want to break that up, because he knew what a great story it was, but he's such a competitor that the though of lying down never crossed his mind."  Book it.

-  I just realized A.J. Burnett is on the other side of this, and he's only allowed 2 hits and one run.  This is like bizarro-world.  There must be a five-hundred mile per hour wind blowing in, the infield grass must be three times longer than normal, and whoever is umping home plate obviously is calling everything a strike tonight.  That has to be it, no?

-  Moment of silence of Lisa "Left Eye" Lopes, who died nine years ago today.  You may remember her as the crazy as shit broad from TLC who burned down Andre Rison's house, but what you might not remember is that Andre Rison died exactly four years ago today.  Creepy, right?  But I should mention that I actually have no idea if Andre Rison is dead or alive, and if he is dead he probably didn't die on this date.  But he could have, and that's creepy.

-  I just read that a judge or something lifted the NFL lockout.  I'm not going to lie to you.  I have no idea what this means.  All I know is I want scab players in at least one NFL game.  Come on.  Tell me you don't want to see Adam Weber throw a TD pass to some 33-year old slob who was selling cars or schlepping concrete last year.  How much fun would it be to go through the rosters and see guys you remember as the third WR on Michigan in 2002 and be all like, "Ronald Bellamy!  I remember that guy!  He's a fag!"  Seriously, it would be like Christmas.

-  A-Rod breaks up the no-hitter with one down in the 7th.  I feel both relieved and saddened at the same time.

-  That Joe Mauer/Troy Polamolu commercial creeps me out.

-  I know what you're wondering.  You're wondering what's going on with the NBDL right now.  Well I'll tell you.  They've reached the finals (which is a best of three affair) and the Iowa Energy are up on the Rio Grande Valley Vipers after taking game one by a score of 123-109.  Iowa was led by Curtis "The Curt Man" Stinson who notched a triple-double (29-10-10).  Also apparently Stinson was MVP of the D-League.  How proud of that would you be?  I'd say it's kind of like getting into Harvard and getting a communications degree.  I mean, it's better than slinging crack or living off welfare, but even so you gotta feel like you didn't quite get everything out of life that you maybe should have.

-  I don't know how anybody could root for the San Antonio Spurs.  You have the world's most boring superstar surrounded by a bunch of commies and some ooh la la frenchman who probably smells like Drakkar.  Gross.

-  Speaking of Drakkar, Memphis is about to be up 3-1 on the Spurs tonight and I can't help but a feel a bit of a pang of jealousy.  I know this would be their first playoff series win ever, and they picked up their first playoff win ever earlier, and I also know the Wolves did have that nice run the conference finals, but Memphis being successful when the Wolves are in the pooper makes me, and baby jesus, cry.  How can Zach Randolph become a leader?  How can a backcourt of O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, and Tony Allen do, well, anything?  And the Wolves are not just worse, but significantly worse.  That feels like a place to end.  Plus I have to go stab myself in the temple with a crossbow quarrel, but before I go I want to leave with this piece of wisdom...."The eyes are the groin of the head."

-  Wait, I just realized I didn't even put a picture in here. So here's a pic of Alison Brie. Top 10, easy.  Should also drive some traffic because cash money ya'll.

Oopsies

Looks like that Johan deal keeps getting worse and worse for the Twins and moving-up-the-worst-GMs-list-with-a-bullet Bill Smith after Kevin Mulvey got rocked by the retarded at hitting A's in his first real outing (a one-batter one-out appearance on Monday doesn't count, mostly because I didn't see it.)

Yep, this afternoon against a team that ranks third from the bottom of the AL in runs and last in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS raked Mulvey in his only inning of work for six hits and four runs before being promptly sent back to AAA in an exchange for The Necklace. To be fair, the A's have a pretty intimidating lineup. I mean, with names like Scott Hairston, Landon Powell, and Rajai Davis, giving up six hits should probably be considered a success.

This makes the second of the three pitchers acquired in the Santana deal to hit the bigs and flame out. Philly Humber was up to start the season, but after putting up a 12.46 ERA in four unimpressive games, he was placed on waivers. Luckily for the Twins, he was so crappy that nobody wanted him, so back to AAA it was.

At least Mulvey still has a shot to develop into a serviceable major leaguer, with an ERA under four in seventeen triple A starts this season and a respectable 2-1 K/BB ratio. Humber, on the other hand, may be a lost cause, as his unclaimed waiver trip suggests. An ERA over six in sixteen starts with a WHIP over 1.6 suggests his new upside might be a middle reliever.

The third pitcher, Deolis Guerra, continues to get less and less impressive despite a recent promotion to double A. After a promising 2006 in A ball, where he put up an ERA of 2.20 and a 1.17 WHIP, he's failed to put up anything resembling a comparable season, with an ERA of almost five in about three seasons at high-A, and is up over five in his three appearances at AA.

Of course, Guerra is just 20 years old, very young for double A, and has still been very impressive at times, but the reviews sound less and less awesome as times goes on.

Gomez at least seems to be improving, albeit quite slowly, but when all is said and done he might end up being the only major league player in the deal. Hopefully I'm wrong, and hopefully this is the second coming of the haul the Indians got when they traded Bartolo Colon to the Expos (Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Lee Stevens), but don't count on it.

At least Halladay is on the market. Maybe we can get him for Mulvey, Humber, Guerra, and Gomez.

- I'll also mention here because when the hell else am I going to bother with it that Ricky Rubio has decided he is leaving his current team whether he can reach an agreement with the Wolves or not. I'm not exactly sure what this all means, but I almost made it through that entire article and I think it means if the Wolves can't work something out with him he could jump to another team and creating a whole new headache world of problems. I'm starting to think this Rubio kid is Samantha Ronson, and the Wolves are Lindsay Lohan, chasing and chasing and chasing and ending up getting locked out of the house without a bra.

- Speaking of bras, we are watching some show now that has Susan Ward in it and she looks like a mom now. I prefer to think of her like this:
Good god. Actually, just go ahead and google image her. There's not a single picture on that first page that isn't a 10.

- FYI, Dusty Rychart is officially a facebook friend of DWG. Rickert has yet to respond.

- Just in case you weren't ready to kill yourself yet over the Twins, Jason Bartlett is hitting .346/.394/.526 with 18 doubles, 8 homers, and 20 steals.

For perspective, that's a better average than Albert Pujols, a better OBP than your boyfriend Derek Jeter, a better slugging pct. than Jason Bay, more doubles than Carl Crawford, more homers than Magglio Ordonez, and more steals than Willy Taveras. Kill me.

[EDIT: I'm going to add the video of Lebron getting dunked on here, just because I don't want to start another post for something that is so stupid. This is the dumbest thing ever. If he/Nike/Zeus/Jesus/Buddha whoever never grabs the tape in the first place, this is a non-story. Hell, this is still a non-story. It's like that time I told everyone I know that I humped Estella Warren, but I really just got some elbow-boob. [EDIT within an EDIT: I can't figure out how to embed this. Just click this link, jackass]]

Some Other Prospects

There are a lot of Twins' prospects you hear about, and quite a few who you really don't. Since we pretty much know Carlos Gomez is a poor man's Vince Coleman, Delmon Young is really Jacque Jones, Boof Bonser's only chance is as an innings eater type, Kevin Slowey gives up too many homeruns, Scott Baker is boring, and Nick Blackburn is the new Jesus, I'm going to attempt to take a look at some guys who haven't hit the bigs yet.


1. P Deolis Guerra. You probably recognize Guerra's name, as he was the other key piece to the Santana deal. Guerra is currenly ranked the #1 prospect in the Twins system, and is putting up the numbers to back it up at Fort Myers. In 19 innings over 4 starts, Guerra has given up 14 hits and 9 walks for a WHIP of 1.21 and only three runs, leaving his ERA at 1.42. He's struck out 15 (good) and given up two homeruns (ok). He's also impressed scouts, despite a fastball that is currently hitting only about 88 on the gun. He has a plus curveball and a plus-plus changeup, which is already considered an average changeup for a big league pitcher. Considering Guerra is just 19 years old, if he picks up some speed on the fastball he could be a star. Even as is, he has the tools to be a big league pitcher, if just a 4/5 type - which the Twins are loaded with.

2. OF Ben Revere. The Twins' 2007 first round pick ran through the Gulf Coast League last year, to the tune of 21 steals in 30 tries in just fifty games. He was already known for his speed, but showed a excellent ability to drive the ball (.461 slugging including 10 triples in just 191 ABs), plate patience (13 BB/20 K, OBP of .388), and hit for average (.325). All these stats point to an excellent player, and hopefully in about 2-3 years he'll be playing CF and leading off for the Twins.

3. P Anthony Swarzak. With all the hype surrounding Garza, Baker, Slowey, and Bonser you never heard much about Swarzak, but he's turned into a top prospect while putting up excellent numbers each year. Swarzak followed up last year's 1.18 WHIP between A and AA with a hot start at AA New Britain, posting a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA of 1.35 in four starts covering 20 innings. He doesn't give up many HRs (0 this year), he strikes out a good amount (24 in 20ip) and doesn't walk many guys (4 this year). Keep your eye on Swarzak, either this year or next he should be making his big debut.

4. P Tyler Robertson. A big (6-5) lefty down at Class A Fort Myers, Robertson is a guy jumped up Twins' prospect lists last season. After an uninspiring initial season in Rookie Ball, Robertson pitched very well at Class A Beloit last year. At just 19 years old, he pitched 102 innings, giving up just 87 hits, 3 homeruns, and 33 walks compared to 123 strikeouts on his way to a 1.17 WHIP and a 2.29 ERA. He's been a bit shakier so far this season at High A Fort Myers, posting a 1.60 WHIP through four starts and 19 innnings, but he still hasn't given up a homerun this year and posts an excellent K/9 of 9.94. Big lefties are always good to have around, so rest assured Robertson will get his chance.

5. SS Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe is a guy I'm very interested in, seeing as he's a shortstop and the position has pretty much been a black hole for the Twins for years and years, other than a handful of average seasons from Jason Bartlett, Greg Gagne, and Pat Meares and one hellaciously awesome season from Cristian Guzman. Of course, other than being a SS, Plouffe is fairl unremarkable. However he is an excellent fielder, with good range either way and a great arm. His hitting is suspect at best, as he's never hit better than .283 in a full minor league season, although he's up to .284 this season so far in AA. He shows decent plate patience and has fairly good speed. If he can develop a better bat, he could be a nice player. Ranked as the #11 prospect in the system, he has potential.

Other names you may not know: P Jeff Manship, P Jeff Duensing, OF Joe Benson

Oh, and if you're wondering about the other two 'tards from the Santana trade, they're both at AAA Rochester, where Kevin Mulvey has been lights out (1.16 ERA/1.16 WHIP) and Phil Humber has gotten absolutel lit up (5.09/1.70).

Beisbol

Three quick baseball notes:

1. There's some Twins chatter buried in the post below this one (the Williamson one) that I recommend taking a look at if you're a Twins fan.

2. I heard on the radio that Phil Humber gave up four runs to Concordia-St Paul today. I don't know how many innings he pitched, but it was a six inning scrimmage, so probably 1-2. ERA of between 18.00 - 36.00 against Concordia. TAKE THAT NEW YORK.

3. Baseball America released their list of the Top 100 Prospects. Of note: #35 Deolis Guerra and #52 Carlos Gomez. That's it for the whole Twins' system.

Santana vs. Bedard

Someone somewhere on this stupid blog asked about a breakdown of the Santana trade vs. the Bedard trade. Since I have nothing better to do this afternoon, and there isn't any basketball on until Duke/Wake at 6:30, I'll see what I can do.

SANTANA vs. BEDARD:

They are both 28, actually being born only 8 days apart, so age is no factor. Santana has been one of the best pitchers in the majors, if not the best, for the past five years. Bedard made a major leap into the upper tier of pitchers this season, after steadily improving for the past four seasons, lowering all his metrics year vs. year for that period, topping out with a 3.16 ERA (146 ERA+), .212 OAV, and 11 K's per nine. Compare that to Santana's 3.33 (130), .225 OAV and 10 Ks per. Add in Johan atrocious HR rate this season, and Bedard may have had a better year - although Santana pitched more innings, 219 vs. 182.

This was clearly Johan's worst season since becoming a full-time starter, and he still finished fifth in Cy Young voting, while it was Bedard's best season, and he tied Johan for fifth. Looking at the contracts they signed after the trades, where Bedard went for 1 year at $7 million and Johan went for 6 years, $137 million, Johan is prohibitively more expensive. Johan had a no trade clause, while Bedard did not. I didn't really get this at first, but after looking into it, it appears there are many reasons why Bedard would be more attractive to certain teams. Of course, if they aren't able to hammer out a long term deal with Bedard, it becomes a very costly trade on their end. Bedard should get somewhere in the $100 million range, so certainly not cheap, but not Johan money and he could end up being every bit as good for the rest of their careers. But I doubt it.

CENTERPIECES:

OF Carlos Gomez to the Twins vs. OF Adam Jones to the Orioles.

Gomez comes to the Twins and is instantly their number 1 prospect. The bad news is that he wasn't the top Mets prospect, but was #2. Adam Jones was not only the #1 prospect in the Mariners system, but was ranked the #44 prospect in the Major Leagues last season, and, if he hadn't played in the majors too much, would be in the top ten this year (Gomez is ranked 65 this season). Jones is known as a five-star, while Gomez is a four-star. Both have limited time in the majors, where Jones hit .246/.300/.400 in 65 at bats last season and Gomez hit .232/.288/.304 in 108 at bats. Similar, but in the minors Jones hit .314/.382/.586 while Gomez hit .281/.350/.423 in his last full minor league season. Hitting isn't everything, and Gomez is faster, steals more bases, and is generally known as a top flite fielder, but it's pretty clear any way you look at it that the best prospect traded in either deal was Jones.

EDIT TO ADD: I forgot to include this when I originally typed it up, but in case the previous paragraph hasn't depressed you enough, the Mariners were supposedly interested in Santana, but pulled out when the Twins asked for Jones. Great.

SECONDARY TALENT:

P Deolis Guerra to the Twins vs. P Chris Tillman.

Guerra immediately becomes the number 2 prospect in the Twins' system. Guerra dominated A ball two years ago, but had trouble adjusting to the jump up to high A. He has pitched in 23 games in high A (22 starts) lasting a total of only 97 total innings - yikes, that's awful - and last season in 21 games there had an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.17. He's generally regarded as an excellent prospect, ranking #79 in the top 100 prospects list. He's only 18 years old, and could climb the list, or flame out.

Chris Tillman ranks #44 on the list, and is similar to Guerra since he also got a bit rocked in high A ball, though scouts love him, and is only 19. He's a step ahead of Guerra, however, because Guerra has a great changeup but needs to develop other pitches, while Tillman already has an excellent fastball and curveball. That, as well as ranking 35 spots higher on the top 100 list, give the edge here to the Mariners as well.

THROW-INS:

P Phil Humber and P Kevin Mulvey to the Twins vs. P Kevin Mickolio, P Tony Butler, and P George Sherrill.

Neither Humber nor Mulvey are anything to get hyper about. Both rank as three star prospects and project to back of the rotation types. They have each had some minor league success, and will start the season most likely in AAA. I expect both to get a shot with the big club at some point, but neither will become a star. Humber is the #5 in the Twins organization, Mulvey is #8.

Mickolio and Butler are a step below Humber/Mulvey, with Butler a two-star prospect ranking 8th in the Mariners system, with Mickolio not ranked in the top 11. Butler is a big lefty who can throw 94 mph, and could develop into a star level pitcher some day. Mickolio isn't expected to be much.

At this point, it looks like the Twins win this category, but the difference is in the third pitcher, reliever George Sherrill. Sherrill is thirty, has been in the majors for four years, and certainly isn't considered a prospect. What he is, is a shut down middle reliever who really came into his own last season. In 46 innings, he allowed 28 hits while striking out 56, with an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 0.98. In 128 career innings pitched, Sherrill has allowed just 10 home runs. It may seem weird that a crappy team like the Orioles would want a middle reliever, but if they're smart, they'll turn around and deal Sherrill. If he can even come close to repeating his numbers from last season, he'll be a valuable commodity at the trade deadline and could net the O's yet another prospect.

So, in conclusion, this sucks.

Adios Johan + Site News

So it's official, Johan to the Mets, and the Twins didn't get back top prospect OF Fernando Martinez, or top young pitcher Mike Pelphrey. Superb. Not to mention no Wright and no Reyes, but I think we gave up on that bit a long time ago.

The guys they ended up getting are a solid package but not getting a marquee name like Martinez, Phil Hughes, Jon Lester, or Jacoby Ellsbury hurts.

OF Carlos Gomez has the best combination of potential and major league ready right now abilities. He was the Mets #3 prospect, and is a top flight center fielder and a very fast runner. His hitting isn't quite major league ready yet, but because of his other skills the Twins might very well try him this year. He never did hit for a very high average or take very many walks, even in the minors, but he can steal bases like a MoFo. Baseball Prospectus projects him as a .260-.280 hitter with 20-50 steals and a .700-.750 OPS each season. Sounds like the perfect throw-in to a big trade, not the freakin' center piece.

P Deolis Guerra was the Mets #2 prospect, and might be the most intriguing. He's only 18, and already has a major-league ready changeup. However his fastball is inconsistent, and he doesn't have a reliable curve as yet. He did post a 1.17 WHIP at the Mets high A league last season. He'll need to develop into something special to make this trade even close to worthwhile.

The other two pitchers, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber, were #4 and #7 in the Mets organization, but it's not clear how much upside they really have. Mulvey pitched well in the minors the past two seasons, posting a 1.07 WHIP between rookie and AA two years ago and 1.21 last season between AA and AAA. According to scouts, he has three good pitches, but no great pitch, which limits him to an upside of back of the rotation type. Hopefully, scouts are wrong. Humber used to be looked at as a #2 pitcher type, but after Tommy John surgery he's lost command of his curveball and looks to be a 4/5 type pitcher as well. Oh good. That's what we need. Two more back of the rotation guys.

I have no idea how real the Red Sox and Yankees' offers as reported by the media were. It is very possible that those were never on the table, and were just rumors. It is also very possible, that Billy Smith was trying to play them off each other, and get other teams involved, and he bluffed the wrong guys. Either Red Sox offer (Lester or Ellsbury plus others) or the Yankees offer (Hughes, Cabrera +, even without Kennedy) would have been preferable to this. The best pitcher in the game, and they get very little back. I know there were few teams willing to pony up the money, but it just seems wrong.

So here's the rotation now:
1. Francisco Liriano (IF he's back - key to the season)
2. Boof Bonser
3. Scott Baker
4. Kevin Slowey
5. Kevin Mulvey/Phil Humber

Ouch.


SITE NEWS: Starting next Wednesday, there will be a PGA post each week from our new PGA guy, looking at the weekend that was and previewing the upcoming tournament. Look for it next week.