I Have a Boner and its Name is Dan Haren

The more and more I think about this, the more and more I want Dan Haren.  And I want him bad.

You can have your Roy Oswalt, but for me Haren is the best pitcher available. His stats might not look super pretty this year (4.60 ERA and 1.34 WHIP) but they are significantly higher than his career averages, and there's really no reason for concern.  His K-rate and BB-rate have remained basically constant, as have his line drive rate and GB/FB ratio - the only big change has been in his BABIP, which essentially tells us that the only reason his numbers don't look that great is bad luck.  Oswalt is a fine pitcher, a damn fine pitcher, but Haren is very similar from a mound standpoint but with more strikeouts, and he's three years younger. 

What makes him more interesting than your average trade deadline available starter is he's not just a rental, for one, but also that none of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets are going to be involved, either because they aren't interested (Yanks, Sox) or don't have the horses (Mets), and those two issues bring the Twins in play.  Of course, we can't just HAVE Dan Haren, as that's only allowed in basketball (see Gasol, Pau), and there are costs involved; both personnel and actual money.

Let's start with personnel, as in "what would the Twins have to trade to acquire Haren?"  Any package discussed for this type of player generally starts with Wilson Ramos, and I don't see why the D-Backs would be an exception.  I know they have a relatively young (27) catcher who can hit in Miguel Montero, but he seems to have some trouble staying healthy (although to be fair I'm only basing this on this season), and it doesn't appear there's much organizational depth behind him, so let's assume we start with Ramos as a base.  If they don't want him, which would be weird, somebody like Ben Revere would work here as well. 

From what I have read, mostly on John Sickels' most excellent blog, the Diamondback's system is pretty thin, particularly on the pitching side.  I also read one GM told a reporter that they are currently asking for two starters and relief help.  One thing I would guess they'd be interested in one of the Twins' current starters, someone with big league experience who is still young and cheap and can develop.  Liriano is untouchable, Pavano makes no sense, Baker is too expensive, and Blackburn has zero trade value, so Slowey it is (and he's under team control for 3 more years).  I won't shed any tears.

I'd also guess they'd like a top-ish level starting pitcher prospect.  Kyle Gibson should be untouchable, but there is some depth here in the minors for pitchers.  David Bromberg is a a guy I see tossed around as the #2 SP prospect for the Twins, and I'd be willing to include him, but he may be too steep a price.  Plenty of other guys like Jeff Manship, Tyler Robertson, or Shooter Hunt could maybe get it done.

As far as relief help, assuming they'd be most interested in a young player with upside, why not Alex Burnett?  He was considered one of the best reliever prospects in the system coming into the year, made the jump from AA to the majors and held his own most of the year, and he's just 22.  There are a couple of other relievers on a similar tier (Rob Delaney, Carlos Gutierrez) who might fit what Arizona is looking for.

So what about a package of Slowey, Ramos, Bromberg, and Burnett?  Might be kind of steep - these are a MLB caliber pitcher (maybe) and three of the team's top 21 prospects going into this year according to Aaron Gleeman, but if I'm Bill Smith I'd be willing to pay that price.  I'd, of course, start by offering lower-ranked prospects (maybe Revere/Slowey/Manship/Delaney), but if my bluff got called I'd throw this one down on the table.  I want to win, and I want to win now. 

We also have to deal wit the real money, and this might end up being the real sticking point.   It's true Haren represents a significant financial investment, as he is owed $12.75M next year and in 2011, and has a club option for $15.5 million in 2012 with a $3.5 million buyout.  Sounds like a lot, and I suppose it is, but keep in mind Haren is a #1 pitcher-type.  We already mentioned Oswalt, whose salary for next season is 28% higher than Haren's, but what about A.J. Burnett at $16.5M, John Lackey at $15.25, Jake Peavy at $17M, or Carlos Zambrano at $18M?  There are pitchers all over the place making $12 million.  I mean, the Orioles paid just slightly less for Kevin Millwood this year ($12 million).  Really, his salary may sound like a lot, but it's a relative bargain compared to a lot of other pitchers.

But can the Twins afford him, is what you're wondering.  Mauer's salary jumps next year by over $10 million, and Kubel (assuming they pick up his option), Rauch (ditto), Guerrier, Delmon Young, and others will get decent raises as well.  They can drop some payroll back by not resigning Thome, Pavano, Hudson, and Hardy, and not picking up Punto's option.  They could also drop $10 million by buying out Cuddyer.  I have a feeling they would be able to bring him back cheaper, if they desired.  He seems loyal like that.  Like a dog.

But overall there's no doubt they would have to be willing to increase payroll to make this happen.  It's also the kind of move that could lead to them not being able to keep Jason Kubel or even Liriano down the line, which is clearly not ideal.  But don't you sometimes get sick of just fighting to make the playoffs, knowing odds are stacked heavily against them getting beyond the first round?  Isn't it sometimes worth sacrificing something in the future for a real, legitimate chance to win now?  This is the year they have the lineup to do it, and you know next year they'll be going back to more slap-hitters, so make the gamble now.  DO IT.

Looking at the overall portrait here, doesn't it make sense to acquire Haren?  A Haren/Liriano/Pavano rotation + whoever emerges from the rest of the mess playoff rotation would be enough to make them a World Series contender, assuming they end up winning the division after making this move (which they would be the favorite to do).  Additionally, it's not like this is just a rental player.  Getting him would give them a Liriano/Pavano head of the rotation for at least a couple years, which is good enough to keep them at the top of the division contender list at the very least. 

We've heard about the new stadium.  We've heard about the sell-outs.  We've heard about the extra money.  We've heard about the commitment to winning.  So let's do this.  Let's go and get Danny Haren.  Come on, Twins.  Small Market is really just a state of mind.

Plus, to help out, if you make this trade I will immediately go out and buy a Twins' Dan Haren jersey (ok, more like one of those t-shirt things with the player name on it.)

Deal?